Conserving migratory land birds in the new world: do we know enough?

Heterogeneity in breeding productivity is driven largely by factors affecting nestlings and young fledglings in an imperiled migratory passerine

Identifying factors that drive variation in vital rates among populations is a prerequisite to understanding a species' population biology and, ultimately, to developing effective conservation strategies. This is especially true for imperiled species like the golden-winged warbler (Vermivora chrysoptera) that exhibit strong spatial heterogeneity in demography and responds variably to conservation interventions. Habitat management actions recommended for breeding grounds conservation include timber harvest, shrub shearing, and prescribed fire that maintain or create early successional woody communities. Herein, we assessed variation in the survival of nests [n = 145] and fledglings [n = 134] at 17 regenerating timber harvest sites within two isolated populations in Pennsylvania that differed in productivity and response to habitat management. Although the overall survival of nests and fledglings was higher in the eastern population than the central population, this was only true when the nest phases and fledgling phases were considered wholly. Indeed, survival rates of nestlings and recently fledged young (1-5 days post-fledging) were lower in the central population, whereas eggs and older fledglings (6-30 days post-fledging) survived at comparable rates in both populations. Fledglings in the central population were smaller (10% lower weight) and begged twice as much as those in the eastern population, suggesting food limitation may contribute to lower survival rates. Fledgling survival in the central population, but not the eastern, also was a function of habitat features (understory vegetation density [positive] and distance to mature forest [negative]) and individual factors (begging effort [negative]). Our findings illustrate how identifying how survival varies across specific life stages can elucidate potential underlying demographic drivers, such as food resources in this case. In this way, our work underscores the importance of studying and decomposing stage-specific demography in species of conservation concern.

The effects of cities on quail (Coturnix coturnix) migration: a disturbing story of population connectivity, health, and ecography

The increasing impact of human activities on ecosystems is provoking a profound and dangerous effect, particularly in wildlife. Examining the historical migration patterns of quail (Coturnix coturnix) offers a compelling case study to demonstrate the repercussions of human actions on biodiversity. Urbanization trends, where people gravitate toward mega-urban areas, amplify this effect. The proliferation of artificial urban ecosystems extends its influence across every biome, as human reliance on infrastructure and food sources alters ecological dynamics extensively. We examine European quail migrations pre- and post-World War II and in the present day. Our study concentrates on the Italian peninsula, investigating the historical and contemporary recovery of ringed quail populations. To comprehend changes in quail migration, we utilize trajectory analysis, open statistical data, and linear generalized models. We found that while human population and economic growth have shown a linear increase, quail recovery rates exhibit a U-shaped trajectory, and cereal and legume production displays an inverse U-shaped pattern. Generalized linear models have unveiled the significant influence of several key factors-time periods, cereal and legume production, and human demographics-on quail recovery rates. These factors closely correlate with the levels of urbanization observed across these timeframes. These insights underscore the profound impact of expanding human populations and the rise of mega-urbanization on ecosystem dynamics and services. As our planet becomes more urbanized, the pressure on ecosystems intensifies, highlighting the urgent need for concerted efforts directed toward conserving and revitalizing ecosystem integrity. Simultaneously, manage the needs and demands of burgeoning mega-urban areas. Achieving this balance is pivotal to ensuring sustainable coexistence between urban improvement and the preservation of our natural environment.

Seasonal patterns and protection status of stopover hotspots for migratory landbirds in the eastern United States

Migratory landbirds in North America are experiencing dramatic population declines. Although considerable research and conservation attention have been directed toward these birds' breeding and wintering grounds, far less is known about the areas used as stopover sites during migration. To address this knowledge gap, we used 5 years of weather surveillance radar data to map seasonal stopover densities of landbirds across the eastern United States during spring and autumn migration. We identified stopover hotspots covering 2.47 million ha that consistently support high densities of migratory landbirds in spring or autumn. However, only 16.7% of these sites are hotspots in both seasons. The distribution of hotspots is shifted eastward in autumn compared with spring. Deciduous forest is the most important habitat type in both seasons, with deciduous forest fragments embedded in broadly deforested regions having the highest probability of being hotspots. The concentration of birds in these forest fragments is stronger in spring, especially in the agricultural Midwest. We found generally higher stopover densities in protected areas than in unprotected areas in both seasons. Nonetheless, only one-third of identified stopover hotspots have some sort of protected status, and more than half of these protected hotspots are subject to extractive uses. A well-distributed network of well-protected stopover areas, complementing conservation efforts on the breeding and wintering grounds, is essential to sustaining healthy populations of migratory landbirds in North America.

Land cover and NDVI are important predictors in habitat selection along migration for the Golden-crowned Sparrow, a temperate-zone migrating songbird

BACKGROUND

Migrating passerines in North America have shown sharp declines. Understanding habitat selection and threats along migration paths are critical research needs, but details about migrations have been limited due to the difficulty of tracking small birds. Recent technological advances of tiny GPS-tags provide new opportunities to delineate fine-scale movements in small passerines during a life stage that has previously been inherently difficult to study.

METHODS

We investigated habitat selection along migration routes for a temperate-zone migratory passerine, the Golden-crowned Sparrow (Zonotrichia atricapilla), given GPS tags on California wintering grounds. We used a resource selection function combined with conditional logistic regression to compare matched sets of known stopover locations and available but unused locations to determine how land cover class, vegetation greenness and climate variables influence habitat selection during migration. We also provide general migration descriptions for this understudied species including migration distance, duration, and elevation, and repeated use of stopover areas.

RESULTS

We acquired 22 tracks across 19 individuals, with a total of 541 valid spring and fall migration locations. Birds traveled to breeding grounds in Alaska and British Columbia along coastal routes, selecting for shrubland and higher vegetation greenness in both migration seasons as well as grasslands during fall migration. However, model interactions showed they selected sites with lower levels of greenness when in forest (both seasons) and shrubland (fall only), which may reflect their preference for more open habitats or represent a trade-off in selection between habitat type and productivity. Birds also selected for locations with higher daily maximum temperature during spring migration. Routes during spring migration were lower in elevation on average, shorter in duration, and had fewer long stopovers than in fall migration. For two birds, we found repeated use of the same stopover areas in spring and fall migration.

CONCLUSIONS

Using miniaturized GPS, this study provides new insight into habitat selection along migration routes for a common temperate-zone migrating songbird, contributing to a better understanding of full annual cycle models, and informing conservation efforts. Golden-crowned Sparrows selected for specific habitats along migration routes, and we found previously unknown behaviors such as repeated use of the same stopover areas by individuals across different migratory seasons.

No fry zones: How restaurant distribution and abundance influence avian communities in the Phoenix, AZ metropolitan area

Urbanization is one of the most widespread and extreme examples of habitat alteration. As humans dominate landscapes, they introduce novel elements into environments, including artificial light, noise pollution, and anthropogenic food sources. One understudied form of anthropogenic food is refuse from restaurants, which can alter wildlife populations and, in turn, entire wildlife communities by providing a novel and stable food source. Using data from the Maricopa Association of Governments and the Central Arizona-Phoenix Long Term Ecological Research (CAP LTER) project, we investigated whether and how the distribution of restaurants influences avian communities. The research aimed to identify restaurants, and thus the associated food they may provide, as the driver of potential patterns by controlling for other influences of urbanization, including land cover and the total number of businesses. Using generalized linear mixed models, we tested whether the number of restaurants within 1 km of bird monitoring locations predict avian community richness and abundance and individual species abundance and occurrence patterns. Results indicate that restaurants may decrease avian species diversity and increase overall abundance. Additionally, restaurants may be a significant predictor of the overall abundance of urban-exploiting species, including rock pigeon (Columba livia), mourning dove (Zenaida macroura), and Inca dove (Columbina Inca). Understanding how birds utilize anthropogenic food sources can inform possible conservation or wildlife management practices. As this study highlights only correlations, we suggest further experimental work to address the physiological ramifications of consuming anthropogenic foods provided by restaurants and studies to quantify how frequently anthropogenic food sources are used compared to naturally occurring sources.

Enhancing monitoring and transboundary collaboration for conserving migratory species under global change: The priority case of the red kite

Calls for urgent action to conserve biodiversity under global change are increasing, and conservation of migratory species in this context poses special challenges. In the last two decades the Convention on the Conservation of Migratory Species of Wild Animals (CMS) has provided a framework for several subsidiary instruments including action plans for migratory bird species, but the effectiveness and transferability of these plans remain unclear. Such laws and policies have been credited with positive outcomes for the conservation of migratory species, but the lack of international coordination and on-ground implementation pose major challenges. While research on migratory populations has received growing attention, considerably less emphasis has been given to integrating ecological information throughout the annual cycle for examining strategies to conserve migratory species at multiple scales in the face of global change. We fill this gap through a case study examining the ecological status and conservation of a migratory raptor and facultative scavenger, the red kite (Milvus milvus), whose current breeding range is limited to Europe and is associated with agricultural landscapes and restricted to the temperate zone. Based on our review, conservation actions have been successful at recovering red kite populations within certain regions. Populations however remain depleted along the southern-most edge of the geographic range where many migratory red kites from northern strongholds overwinter. This led us to a forward-looking and integrated strategy that emphasizes international coordination involving researchers and conservation practitioners to enhance the science-policy-action interface. We identify and explore key issues for conserving the red kite under global change, including enhancing conservation actions within and outside protected areas, recovering depleted populations, accounting for climate change, and transboundary coordination in adaptive conservation and management actions. The integrated conservation strategy is sufficiently general such that it can be adapted to inform conservation of other highly mobile species subject to global change.

Migratory connectivity and timing for an at-risk Canadian landbird, Eastern Whip-poor-will (Antrostomus vociferus), from two geographically distant breeding areas

Determining the year-round spatial distributions of at-risk avian migratory species is critical for effective conservation. High-precision tracking enables the identification of distant breeding and nonbreeding areas and their connectivity, as well as migratory routes and associated threats. We GPS-tracked two groups of Eastern Whip-poor-wills ( Antrostomus vociferus (A. Wilson, 1812)) that breed near the northern edge of their range, in Manitoba and northwestern Ontario (“west”), and in southern Ontario (“east”), Canada. The western-breeding birds were also ∼5° of latitude farther north than the eastern birds. We aimed to determine the degree of spatiotemporal overlap between the two groups during fall migration and at tropical wintering sites. We found that western-breeding birds departed earlier on migration than eastern-breeding birds, but we did not detect a difference in arrival timing to wintering sites. The two breeding groups retained spatial structure during migration, until all routes converged to circumnavigate the Gulf of Mexico. Western-breeding birds overwintered at sites farther south than eastern-breeding birds, consistent with a leapfrog pattern of migration. Quantifying the strength of migratory connectivity in at-risk species can be a first step toward defining breeding populations and informing customized conservation strategies throughout the annual cycle.

Short-term mercury exposure disrupts muscular and hepatic lipid metabolism in a migrant songbird

Methylmercury (MeHg) is a global pollutant that can cause metabolic disruptions in animals and thereby potentially compromise the energetic capacity of birds for long-distance migration, but its effects on avian lipid metabolism pathways that support endurance flight and stopover refueling have never been studied. We tested the effects of short-term (14-d), environmentally relevant (0.5 ppm) dietary MeHg exposure on lipid metabolism markers in the pectoralis and livers of yellow-rumped warblers (Setophaga coronata) that were found in a previous study to have poorer flight endurance in a wind tunnel than untreated conspecifics. Compared to controls, MeHg-exposed birds displayed lower muscle aerobic and fatty acid oxidation capacity, but similar muscle glycolytic capacity, fatty acid transporter expression, and PPAR expression. Livers of exposed birds indicated elevated energy costs, lower fatty acid uptake capacity, and lower PPAR-γ expression. The lower muscle oxidative enzyme capacity of exposed birds likely contributed to their weaker endurance in the prior study, while the metabolic changes observed in the liver have potential to inhibit lipogenesis and stopover refueling. Our findings provide concerning evidence that fatty acid catabolism, synthesis, and storage pathways in birds can be dysregulated by only brief exposure to MeHg, with potentially significant consequences for migratory performance.

Island biogeography theory and the urban landscape: stopover site selection by the silver-haired bat (Lasionycteris noctivagans)

Many migratory bats require forested sites for roosting and foraging along their migration path, but increased urbanization and intensive agricultural practices may reduce the availability of stopover sites. Urban forests may provide important stopover habitat, maintaining landscape connectivity in regions where the majority of natural habitat has been cleared for development. Island biogeography theory can be applied to urbanized temperate forest biomes where small urban forests represent islands separated from the larger “mainland” forest. We used acoustic monitoring during the fall migration period to investigate the use of urban forest habitat by the migratory species Lasionycteris noctivagans Le Conte, 1831. We predicted that recorded activity would have a positive relationship with forest patch area and shape and a negative relationship with isolation from other forest patches, as suggested by island biogeography theory. We observed greater activity at larger forest patches, and although relationships for shape and isolation were not statistically supported the observed patterns were consistent with predictions. Our results demonstrate the need for more in-depth research on the habitat requirements for both migratory and resident bat species and the impact that ongoing urbanization has on local bat populations.

Revealing migratory path, important stopovers and non-breeding areas of a boreal songbird in steep decline

The Olive-sided Flycatcher (Contopus cooperi) is a steeply declining aerial insectivore with one of the longest migrations of any North American passerine. We deployed light-level geolocators and archival GPS tags on breeders in boreal Alaska to determine migratory routes, important stopovers and non-breeding locations. Data from 16 individuals revealed a median 23,555 km annual journey (range: 19,387, 27,292 km) over 95 days (range: 83, 139 days) with wintering occurring in three regions of South America (NW Colombia/Ecuador, central Peru and W Brazil/S Peru). We developed a new method to identify “Important Stopovers” by quantifying intensity of use (a function of bird numbers and stop durations) along migratory routes. We identified 13 Important Stopovers that accounted for ~66% of the annual migratory period, suggestive of refueling activities. Some sites coincided with key areas previously identified for other Neotropical-Nearctic migrants. Percent land “protected” at Important Stopovers, as defined by IUCN, ranged from 3.8% to 49.3% (mean [95% CI]: 17.3% [9.6, 25.0]). Total migration speed did not differ by season (median: 255 km day-1, range: 182, 295km day-1), despite greater spring travel distances. Birds with longer non-breeding periods, however, migrated north faster. Climate-driven mismatches in migratory timing may be less of a concern for western than for eastern flycatcher populations, given recent con-generic analyses (C. sordidulus, C. virens). However, accelerated high-latitude changes, may nonetheless impact boreal breeders.

Migration and non-breeding ecology of the Yellow-breasted Chat Icteria virens

Detailed information spanning the full annual cycle is lacking for most songbird populations. We examined breeding, migration, and non-breeding sites for the Yellow-breasted Chat (Icteria virens, chat). We deployed archival GPS tags and light-level geolocators on breeding chats in British Columbia and light-level geolocators in California from 2013 to 2017 to determine migration routes and non-breeding sites. We examined whether chats overwintered in protected areas and characterized the percent of land cover within 1 km. We used a combination of genetics and stable hydrogen isotopes from feathers collected on non-breeding chats in Nayarit, Mexico (2017-2019) and migrating chats in Chiapas, Mexico (2018) and Veracruz, Mexico (2014-2015) to determine subspecies and infer breeding location. Endangered chats in British Columbia followed the Pacific Flyway and spent the non-breeding period in Sinaloa and Nayarit, Mexico. Two out of five chats spent the non-breeding period in protected areas, and the most common landcover type used was tropical or subtropical broadleaf deciduous forest. We found no mixing of eastern and western chats in our Mexico sites, suggesting strong migratory connectivity at the subspecies level. Western chats likely originating from multiple breeding latitudes spent the non-breeding period in Nayarit. Eastern Yellow-breasted Chats likely breeding across various latitudes migrated through Veracruz and Chiapas. Our results provide precise migration routes and non-breeding locations, and describe habitat cover types for chats, notably an endangered population in British Columbia, which may be valuable for habitat protection and conservation efforts.

SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10336-021-01931-8.

Leveraging genomics to understand threats to migratory birds

Understanding how risk factors affect populations across their annual cycle is a major challenge for conserving migratory birds. For example, disease outbreaks may happen on the breeding grounds, the wintering grounds, or during migration and are expected to accelerate under climate change. The ability to identify the geographic origins of impacted individuals, especially outside of breeding areas, might make it possible to predict demographic trends and inform conservation decision-making. However, such an effort is made more challenging by the degraded state of carcasses and resulting low quality of DNA available. Here, we describe a rapid and low-cost approach for identifying the origins of birds sampled across their annual cycle that is robust even when DNA quality is poor. We illustrate the approach in the common loon (Gavia immer), an iconic migratory aquatic bird that is under increasing threat on both its breeding and wintering areas. Using 300 samples collected from across the breeding range, we develop a panel of 158 single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNP) loci with divergent allele frequencies across six genetic subpopulations. We use this SNP panel to identify the breeding grounds for 142 live nonbreeding individuals and carcasses. For example, genetic assignment of loons sampled during botulism outbreaks in parts of the Great Lakes provides evidence for the significant role the lakes play as migratory stopover areas for loons that breed across wide swaths of Canada, and highlights the vulnerability of a large segment of the breeding population to botulism outbreaks that are occurring in the Great Lakes with increasing frequency. Our results illustrate that the use of SNP panels to identify breeding origins of carcasses collected during the nonbreeding season can improve our understanding of the population-specific impacts of mortality from disease and anthropogenic stressors, ultimately allowing more effective management.

A weather surveillance radar view of Alaskan avian migration

Monitoring avian migration within subarctic regions of the globe poses logistical challenges. Populations in these regions often encounter the most rapid effects of changing climates, and these seasonally productive areas are especially important in supporting bird populations-emphasizing the need for monitoring tools and strategies. To this end, we leverage the untapped potential of weather surveillance radar data to quantify active migration through the airspaces of Alaska. We use over 400 000 NEXRAD radar scans from seven stations across the state between 1995 and 2018 (86% of samples derived from 2013 to 2018) to measure spring and autumn migration intensity, phenology and directionality. A large bow-shaped terrestrial migratory system spanning the southern two-thirds of the state was identified, with birds generally moving along a northwest-southeast diagonal axis east of the 150th meridian, and along a northeast-southwest axis west of this meridian. Spring peak migration ranged from 3 May to 30 May and between, 18 August and 12 September during the autumn, with timing across stations predicted by longitude, rather than latitude. Across all stations, the intensity of migration was greatest during the autumn as compared to spring, highlighting the opportunity to measure seasonal indices of net breeding productivity for this important system as additional years of radar measurements are amassed.

Migratory connectivity then and now: a northward shift in breeding origins of a long-distance migratory bird wintering in the tropics

Temporal variation in the connectivity of populations of migratory animals has not been widely documented, despite having important repercussions for population ecology and conservation. Because the long-distance movements of migratory animals link ecologically distinct and geographically distant areas of the world, changes in the abundance and migratory patterns of species may reflect differential drivers of demographic trends acting over various spatial scales. Using stable hydrogen isotope analyses (δ²H) of feathers from historical museum specimens and contemporary samples obtained in the field, we provide evidence for an approximately 600 km northward shift over 45 years in the breeding origin of a species of songbird of major conservation concern (blackpoll warbler, Setophaga striata) wintering in the foothills of the eastern Andes of Colombia. Our finding mirrors predictions of range shifts for boreal-breeding species under warming climate scenarios and habitat loss in the temperate zone, and underscores likely drivers of widespread declines in populations of migratory birds. Our work also highlights the value of natural history collections to document the effects of global change on biodiversity.

The State of Migratory Landbirds in the East Asian Flyway: Distributions, Threats, and Conservation Needs

With nearly 400 migratory landbird species, the East Asian Flyway is the most diverse of the world’s flyways. This diversity is a consequence of the varied ecological niches provided by biomes ranging from broadleaf forests to arctic tundra and accentuated by complex biogeographic processes. The distribution and migration ecology of East Asian landbirds is still inadequately known, but a recent explosion in the number of studies tracking the migration of raptors, cuckoos, kingfishers and passerines has greatly increased our knowledge about the stopover and wintering ecology of many species, and the migratory routes that link northeast Eurasia and the Asian tropics. Yet the East Asian Flyway also supports the highest number of threatened species among flyways. Strong declines have been detected in buntings (Emberizidae) and other long-distance migrants. While the conservation of migratory landbirds in this region has largely focused on unsustainable hunting, there are other threats, such as habitat loss and increased agro-chemical use driven directly by land cover change and climate-related processes. Important knowledge gaps to be addressed include (1) threats affecting species in different parts of their annual cycle, (2) range-wide population trends, (3) ecological requirements and habitat use during the non-breeding season, and (4) the conservation status of critical wintering sites (including understudied farming landscapes, such as rice fields) and migration bottlenecks along the flyway.

Declines in Common and Migratory Breeding Landbird Species in South Korea Over the Past Two Decades

Population declines in terrestrial bird species have been reported across temperate regions in the world and are attributed to habitat loss, climate change, or other direct mortality sources. North American and European studies indicate that long-distance migrants, common species, and species associated with grasslands and agricultural lands are declining at the greatest rates. However, data from East Asia on avian population trends and associated drivers are extremely sparse. We modeled changes in occupancy of 52 common breeding landbird species in South Korea between 1997–2005 and 2013–2019. Thirty-eight percent of the species showed evidence of declines, and seven of these were declining severely (46–95%). Occupancy of Black-capped Kingfisher (Halcyon pileata) populations have dropped the most precipitously over the study period. Among declining species, long-distance migrants (9/20) and common species (14/20) showed more rapid declines than other groups. Declines of five species were associated with climate change, and two species appeared to be affected by land-cover change. However, causes of change in occupancy of other species (46/52) remains cryptic. Based on our results, we suggest an immediate re-evaluation of species’ conservation status and legal protection levels for seven severely declining species in South Korea, and a dedicated survey design and analysis effort for the continued monitoring landbird populations. Because many species exhibiting declines migrate from beyond national boundaries, international collaborations will be required to better quantify population trends across the full annual cycle, and to understand mechanisms for these declines.

Migration ecology of western gray catbirds

BACKGROUND

For many songbirds in North America, we lack movement details about the full annual cycle, notably outside the breeding season. Understanding how populations are linked spatially between breeding and overwintering periods (migratory connectivity) is crucial to songbird conservation and management. We assessed migratory connectivity for 2 breeding populations of Gray Catbirds (Dumetella carolinensis) west of and within the Rocky Mountains by determining migration routes, stopover sites, and overwintering locations. Additionally, we compared apparent annual survivorship for both populations.

METHODS

We deployed 39 archival light-level geolocators and 21 Global Positioning System (GPS) tags on catbirds in the South Okanagan Valley, British Columbia, Canada, and 32 geolocators and 52 GPS tags in the Bitterroot River Valley, Montana, USA. These devices allowed us to determine migration routes, stopover sites, overwintering locations, and migratory connectivity. Migratory connectivity was quantified using Mantel's correlation. We used mark-recapture of colour banded catbirds in both sites to estimate apparent annual survivorship.

RESULTS

We retrieved 6 geolocators and 19 GPS tags with usable data. Gray Catbirds from both populations passed through the Rocky Mountains eastward before heading south towards their overwintering locations in northeastern Mexico and Texas. Stopover sites during fall migration occurred primarily in Montana, Kansas, Oklahoma, and Arkansas. Overwintering locations spanned Texas and 5 states in northeastern Mexico. Individual catbirds used up to 4 distinct sites during the overwintering period. Catbirds separated by almost 500 km during the breeding season overlapped during the non-breeding season, suggesting weak migratory connectivity among western populations (Mantel's correlation = 0.013, P-value = 0.41). Catbird apparent annual survivorship estimates were higher in British Columbia (0.61 ± 0.06 females; 0.64 ± 0.05 males) than in Montana (0.34 ± 0.05 females; 0.43 ± 0.04 males), though the main driver of these differences remain unclear.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results provide high precision geographic details during the breeding, migration, and overwintering phases of the annual cycle for western Gray Catbirds. Notably, we found that western catbirds followed the Central Flyway as opposed to the Pacific Flyway. We document that catbirds used multiple sites over winter, contrary to the popular belief that this phase of the annual cycle is stationary for most songbirds.

Conserving native trees increases native bird diversity and community composition on commercial office developments

In cities, woody vegetation provides critical shelter, nesting and foraging habitat for bird species of interest. Human actions—including development and landscaping choices—determine vegetation community composition and structure, making these choices critically important to urban bird conservation. A better understanding of how bird communities are impacted by parcel-scale actions can help guide policy and management best practices to improve matrix habitat quality and quantity. Here, I examined how bird habitat use varies along a vegetation gradient created by different development and landscaping choices. I surveyed 20 commercial office developments near Seattle in the Puget Trough region of Washington, USA selected using stratified random sampling, where I quantified bird communities and observed feeding behavior. I used GLMM and PERMANOVA models with data likelihood metrics to identify the best supported variables for bird site use, along with TITAN models to identify changes in community composition along environmental gradients. I found that measures of bird effective species richness and bird community are positively influenced by the presence of more native conifers, including the presence of a stand predating development and the height and density of native conifers. Measures of the native bird community are negatively influenced by higher non-native tree density. In contrast to prior research, top-down landscape-scale variables did not explain variation in measures of the bird community on office developments. Importantly, I found that birds are associated with the same habitat on office developments as observed elsewhere. Together, my findings suggest an important role for developers, land owners, landscape architects, and tree protection policy in bird conservation.

A genoscape-network model for conservation prioritization in a migratory bird

Migratory animals are declining worldwide and coordinated conservation efforts are needed to reverse current trends. We devised a novel genoscape-network model that combines genetic analyses with species distribution modeling and demographic data to overcome challenges with conceptualizing alternative risk factors in migratory species across their full annual cycle. We applied our method to the long distance, Neotropical migratory bird, Wilson's Warbler (Cardellina pusilla). Despite a lack of data from some wintering locations, we demonstrated how the results can be used to help prioritize conservation of breeding and wintering areas. For example, we showed that when genetic, demographic, and network modeling results were considered together it became clear that conservation recommendations will differ depending on whether the goal is to preserve unique genetic lineages or the largest number of birds per unit area. More specifically, if preservation of genetic lineages is the goal, then limited resources should be focused on preserving habitat in the California Sierra, Basin Rockies, or Coastal California, where the 3 most vulnerable genetic lineages breed, or in western Mexico, where 2 of the 3 most vulnerable lineages overwinter. Alternatively, if preservation of the largest number of individuals per unit area is the goal, then limited conservation dollars should be placed in the Pacific Northwest or Central America, where densities are estimated to be the highest. Overall, our results demonstrated the utility of adopting a genetically based network model for integrating multiple types of data across vast geographic scales and better inform conservation decision-making for migratory animals.

Increased Stopover Duration and Low Body Condition of the Pied Flycatcher (Ficedula hypoleuca) at an Autumn Stopover Site

Simple Summary

Many bird species that migrate long distances are in decline partly because of environmental changes, such as climate change or land-use changes. Although much is already known on the effects of environmental change on birds that are on their spring migration or on their breeding grounds, little is known with regard to possible negative effects on birds that are on their autumn migration and visiting so-called stopover sites on their way to their wintering grounds. These stopover sites are vital for birds to refuel, and a potential deteriorating quality of the stopover sites may lead to individuals dying during migration. We investigated the impacts of local environmental conditions on the migration strategy and body condition of the Pied Flycatcher at an autumn migration stopover site using long-term ringing data and local environmental conditions. We found that although birds arrived and departed the stopover site around the same time over the years, the body condition of the individuals caught decreased, and the length of their stay at the stopover site increased. This suggests that conditions at the stopover site during the autumn migration period have deteriorated over time which may lead to the death of more birds during autumn migration.

Abstract

Many long-distance migratory bird species are in decline, of which environmental changes, such as climate change and land-use changes, are thought to be important drivers. The effects of environmental change on the migration of these birds have often been studied during spring migration. Fewer studies have explored the impacts of environmental change on autumn migration, especially at stopover sites. However, stopover sites are important, as the quality of these sites is expected to change over time. We investigated impacts of local environmental conditions on the migration strategy and body condition of the Pied Flycatcher (Ficedula hypoleuca) at an autumn migration stopover site using long-term ringing data (1996–2018) and local environmental conditions. We found that although the arrival and departure dates of birds at the stopover site remained unchanged, the body condition (fat score) of the individuals caught decreased, and the stopover duration increased. This suggests that conditions at the stopover site during the autumn migration period have deteriorated over time. This study emphasizes the importance of suitable stopover sites for migratory birds and stresses that changes in environmental conditions during the autumn migration period may be contributing to the current decline in long-distance migratory passerines.

Using oxygen and hydrogen stable isotopes to track the migratory movement of Sharp-shinned Hawks (Accipiter striatus) along Western Flyways of North America

The large-scale patterns of movement for the Sharp-shinned Hawk (Accipiter striatus), a small forest hawk found throughout western North America, are largely unknown. However, based on field observations we set out to test the hypothesis that juvenile migratory A. striatus caught along two distinct migration routes on opposite sides of the Sierra Nevada Mountains of North America (Pacific Coast and Intermountain Migratory Flyways) come from geographically different natal populations. We applied stable isotope analysis of hydrogen (H) and oxygen (O) of feathers, and large scale models of spatial isotopic variation (isoscapes) to formulate spatially explicit predictions of the origin of the migrant birds. Novel relationships were assessed between the measured hydrogen and oxygen isotope values of feathers from A. striatus museum specimens of known origin and the isoscape modeled hydrogen and oxygen isotope values of precipitation at those known locations. We used these relationships to predict the origin regions for birds migrating along the two flyways from the measured isotope values of migrant’s feathers and the associated hydrogen and oxygen isotopic composition of precipitation where these feathers were formed. The birds from the two migration routes had overlap in their natal/breeding origins and did not differentiate into fully separate migratory populations, with birds from the Pacific Coast Migratory Flyway showing broader natal geographic origins than those from the Intermountain Flyway. The methodology based on oxygen isotopes had, in general, less predictive power than the one based on hydrogen. There was broad agreement between the two isotope approaches in the geographic assignment of the origins of birds migrating along the Pacific Coast Flyway, but not for those migrating along the Intermountain Migratory Flyway. These results are discussed in terms of their implications for conservation efforts of A. striatus in western North America, and the use of combined hydrogen and oxygen stable isotope analysis to track the movement of birds of prey on continental scales.

Widely distributed breeding populations of Canada warbler (Cardellina canadensis) converge on migration through Central America

Background

To effectively conserve migratory species, the entire range encompassed by their annual life cycle needs to be considered. Most research on Nearctic-Neotropical migratory birds has focused on the breeding grounds resulting in a general lack of knowledge regarding the wintering and migratory periods. The Canada Warbler (Cardellina canadensis) has declined by 71% from 1970 to 2012, at a rate of 2.9% per year, and is listed as Threatened in Canada. As with most Nearctic-Neotropical migrants, conservation efforts outside the breeding range are limited by a poor understanding of migration routes and the connectivity between specific breeding and wintering populations.

Results

To determine migratory routes of multiple breeding populations of Canada Warblers, we directly-tracked individuals using light-level geolocators deployed at four sites across the breeding range, spanning approximately 43 degrees in longitude (Alberta, Manitoba and Québec, Canada, and New Hampshire, USA). Twenty-five geolocators with usable data were recovered from three sites and were analyzed using FlightR to determine fall migration routes (n = 18) and individual wintering sites (n = 25). Individuals from all breeding populations took a western fall migration route at the Gulf of Mexico; with 77.8% of birds funnelling into a narrow geographic space along the western side of the Gulf of Mexico (97°W-99°W). We found no evidence for population-specific, parallel migration routes. Most individuals (72%) overwintered in Colombia. The remaining individuals overwintered in Venezuela.

Conclusions

Our results demonstrate convergence of migratory routes around a migration barrier for individuals originating from widely distributed breeding areas. Further, we suggest the potential importance of habitat around the Gulf of Mexico during migration and Andean forest in Colombia as overwintering habitat for this threatened species. Future research should be directed at understanding how these areas are used by Canada Warblers.

Sources and dynamics of international funding for waterfowl conservation in the Prairie Pothole Region of North America

Abstract ContextFunding for habitat-management programs to maintain population viability is critical for conservation of migratory species; however, such financial resources are limited and can vary greatly over time. The Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) of North America is an excellent system for examining spatiotemporal patterns of funding for waterfowl conservation, because this transboundary region is crucial for reproduction and migration of many duck species. AimsWe examine large-scale spatiotemporal variation in funding for waterfowl habitat conservation in the PPR during 2007–2016. Specifically, we quantify major sources of funding and how funds were directed towards particular geographies within Canada and the USA. We further examine how sources and magnitude of funding changed over time and in relation to numbers of hunters. MethodsWe assembled data from multiple sources to quantify funding (in US$, 2016 values) from (1) USA states and non-government organisations (NGOs), (2) Canadian government and NGOs, and (3) major USA-based federal funding sources to the Canadian and US portions of the PPR between 2007 and 2016. We fit linear regressions to examine spatiotemporal variation in funding and in numbers of active waterfowl hunters in the USA. Key resultsWhereas annual funding for the Canadian portion was comparatively stable throughout the 10 years (range: US$25–41 million), funding for the US portion was dynamic and increased between the first (range: US$36–48 million) and second (range: US$43–117 million) 5-year intervals, despite concurrent declines in the number of active waterfowl hunters in the USA. ConclusionsWe discovered contrasting trends and dynamics in multiple streams of funding for habitat conservation on each side of the border bisecting the PPR. These findings and approaches warrant closer attention by wildlife professionals. Work is needed to analyse past and future funding for habitat conservation, which can then be used to refine plans for maintaining or recovering populations of migratory species. ImplicationsAlthough funding for waterfowl habitat conservation in the PPR increased over the past decade, trends were inconsistent among subregions and uncertain for some major funding sources. Better understanding of the complexities in funding will help inform more efficient long-term planning efforts for conservation of waterfowl and other migratory species.

When and where mortality occurs throughout the annual cycle changes with age in a migratory bird: individual vs population implications

The annual cycle of most animals is structured into discrete stages, such as breeding, migration and dispersal. While there is growing appreciation of the importance of different stages of an organism’s annual cycle for its fitness and population dynamics, almost nothing is known about if and how such seasonal effects can change through a species lifespan. Here, we take advantage of the opportunity offered by a long-term satellite/GPS-tracking study and a reliable method of remote death-detection to show that certain stages of both the annual and life cycle of a migratory long-lived raptor, the Black kite Milvus migrans, may represent sensitive bottlenecks for survival. In particular, migratory journeys caused bursts of concentrated-mortality throughout life, but the relative importance of stage-specific survival changed with age. On the other hand, the balance between short-stages of high mortality and long-stages of low mortality made population-growth similarly dependent on all portions of the annual cycle. Our results illustrate how the population dynamics of migratory organisms can be inextricably linked to ecological pressures balanced over multiple stages of the annual cycle and thus multiple areas of the globe, suggesting the frequent need for challenging conservation strategies targeting all portions of a species year-round range.

Rainfall and habitat interact to affect the condition of a wintering migratory songbird in The Bahamas

On the subtropical and tropical wintering grounds of migratory birds, variation in moisture levels and habitat can influence the availability of food resources and subsequently impact overwintering birds. Using stable carbon isotopes in blood samples as a measure of moisture, we assessed the interactive effects of rainfall, vegetation, and moisture on the demographics and condition of Prairie Warblers (Setophaga discolor) wintering in The Bahamas. Carbon isotopes in Prairie Warbler blood were more depleted in taller, wetter habitats; we additionally detected novel temporal effects of rainfall on isotope values. During a winter with more rainfall, most birds maintained mass and pectoral muscle regardless of the habitat type occupied. In a winter with less rainfall, birds lost mass and pectoral muscle, and this effect was more pronounced in birds with enriched isotope values and birds that occupied drier, shorter habitat. Prairie Warblers exhibited strong patterns of sexual habitat segregation with males disproportionately observed in areas with taller vegetation and females in shorter vegetation. During the drier winter, older males had better maintenance of pectoral muscle compared to females and younger individuals. Also in the drier winter, daily rainfall patterns explained more of the variation in body condition compared to the date of capture; pectoral muscle was best explained by recent precipitation (during the previous 30 days), while size-corrected mass was more a function of longer-term (90-day) rainfall and habitat moisture. Our findings along with other studies suggest that Prairie Warblers and other migratory birds are sensitive to interactions between annual variation in winter rainfall, within-season daily rainfall patterns, and habitat quality. Increasing drought and habitat loss in the Caribbean may be having a negative impact on wintering bird populations. To best conserve Nearctic-Neotropical migratory passerines in the region, we recommend prioritizing the protection of the least drought-prone wintering areas.

Additive and interactive cumulative effects on boreal landbirds: winners and losers in a multi-stressor landscape

Stressors created by multiple resource industries can result in cumulative effects over time and space. Many studies have evaluated single stressors and assumed that cumulative effects can be understood by adding stressors together. However, there is growing evidence that interactive effects are important in structuring biological communities. We evaluated whether the effects of multiple stressors in the boreal forest (linear features, energy, forestry) combine additively or interactively by testing a candidate model set of 12 cumulative effects models of abundance for 27 landbird species. We fitted paired additive and interactive Generalized Additive Models and examined model predictions in the Athabasca Oil Sands Area of Alberta, Canada, and a theoretical no-disturbance version of the study area. Of the 27 species examined, an additive disturbance model was the best for nine species, while an interactive disturbance model was the best for 11 species. In the current study area, disturbance models predicted strong increases in abundance for species associated with deciduous forest and open habitats (winning species) and moderate decreases for species associated with conifer forest (losing species). We found a 15% change in landbird community composition between the current study area, with 8.4% disturbance, and the theoretical no-disturbance study area. Complex synergistic and antagonistic interactions among stressors were observed for 39% of landbird species, with the majority of interactions observed being synergistic. Stressors with relatively small disturbance areas, such as narrow linear disturbances, frequently interacted with other stressors to affect species' responses, and energy sector stressors often had additive or interactive effects with forestry stressors. Interactive cumulative effects from multiple sectors will make it increasingly difficult for industry and land managers to manage impacts unless interactions among stressors are incorporated into cumulative effects assessments and regional land use planning processes.

Impacts of the Northwest Forest Plan on forest composition and bird populations

The Northwest Forest Plan (NWFP) ended clearcutting of old-growth forest on federal land across western Washington, Oregon, and California in the early 1990s. We provide a test of how this dramatic change affected bird populations—a commonly used biodiversity indicator. Although the NWFP greatly reduced losses of older forests to logging, losses to wildfire have increased, and declines in birds associated with older forests have amplified. The area of early-seral ecosystems with broadleaf trees stabilized on federal land, but declines continue for some associated species. Creation of early-seral vegetation may be justified in some landscapes where wildfires are mostly suppressed, but should not impede development of older forests, the gradual recovery of which remains critical for the long-term success of the NWFP.

The Northwest Forest Plan (NWFP) initiated one of the most sweeping changes to forest management in the world, affecting 10 million hectares of federal land. The NWFP is a science-based plan incorporating monitoring and adaptive management and provides a unique opportunity to evaluate the influence of policy. We used >25 years of region-wide bird surveys, forest data, and land-ownership maps to test this policy’s effect on biodiversity. Clearcutting decreased rapidly, and we expected populations of older-forest–associated birds to stabilize on federal land, but to continue declining on private industrial lands where clearcutting continued. In contrast, we expected declines in early-seral–associated species on federal land because of reduced anthropogenic disturbance since the NWFP. Bayesian hierarchical models revealed that bird species’ population trends tracked changes in forest composition. However, against our expectations, declines of birds associated with older forests accelerated. These declines are partly explained by losses of older forests due to fire on federal land and continued clearcutting elsewhere. Indeed, the NWFP anticipated that reversing declines of older forests would take time. Overall, the early-seral ecosystem area was stable, but declined in two ecoregions—the Coast Range and Cascades—along with early-seral bird populations. Although the NWFP halted clearcutting on federal land, this has so far been insufficient to reverse declines in older-forest–associated bird populations. These findings underscore the importance of continuing to prioritize older forests under the NWFP and ensuring that the recently proposed creation of early-seral ecosystems does not impede the conservation and development of older-forest structure.

Optimizing conservation benefits for threatened beach fauna following severe natural disturbances

Wildlife on sandy beaches is often constrained by transformation of natural areas for human use, and opportunities for acquiring or restoring new habitat are rare. Storms can often force changes in land use naturally by re-shaping coastal landforms, thereby creating high quality habitat; yet, wildlife requirements are seldom considered in post-storm recovery planning, and conservation practitioners lack suitable evidence to argue for the protection of habitats freshly formed by storms. Here we used a maximum-likelihood spatial modeling approach to quantify impacts of Hurricane Sandy (mid-Atlantic United States, October 2012) on nesting habitat of four bird species of conservation concern: American oystercatchers, black skimmers, least terns and piping plovers. We calculated the immediate storm-created changes (loss, persisting, gained) in nesting habitat under two levels of conservation protections: the current regulatory framework, and a scenario in which all potential habitats were under conservation protection. Hurricane Sandy resulted in apparent large gains for least terns (+181 ha) and piping plovers (+289 ha). However, actual gains were reduced to 16 ha for plovers and reversed for least terns (net loss of 6.4 ha) because newly formed habitat occurred outside existing reserve boundaries. Similarly, under the current management framework, black skimmer nesting habitat decreased by ~164 ha. We also tested whether birds benefited from newly created nesting habitat by identifying nest and colony locations for three years following Hurricane Sandy. All species overwhelmingly nested in habitat that existed prior the storm (76-98% of all nests/colonies); only a small percentage (≤17% for all species) occupied newly created habitat. We conclude that static spatial conservation efforts fail to capitalize on potentially large gains resulting from storms for several species and recommend flexible spatial conservation investments as a key input in post-storm recovery planning.

Assessment of Shorebird Migratory Fueling Physiology and Departure Timing in Relation to Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbon Contamination in the Gulf of Mexico

Shorebirds depend on staging sites in the Gulf of Mexico that are frequently subject to pollution by oil and its toxic constituents, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs). It was hypothesized that PAH contamination lowers staging site quality for migratory shorebirds, with consequences for fueling and departure timing. Sediment total PAH concentrations were measured at six staging sites along the Texas and Louisiana Gulf Coast. Sites in Louisiana were expected to have higher total PAH concentrations as they were more heavily impacted by the Deepwater Horizon oil spill. From 2015 to 2017, 165 Sanderling ( Calidris alba) and 55 Red knots ( C. canutus) were captured at these same sites during their northward migration (late April to mid May). Mass, body morphometrics, and plasma metabolite measurements were taken to determine fuel loads and fueling rates, and a subset of birds (120 Sanderling and 39 Red knots) received a coded radio tag to determine departure dates using the Motus telemetry array. Compared to Texas sites, sediment in Louisiana had higher total PAH concentrations, dominated by heavier 6 ring indeno[1,2,3- cd]pyrene (48%). Plasma metabolite profiles suggested that fueling rates for Sanderling, but not Red knots, tended to be lower in Louisiana, and both species departed later than the study average from Louisiana. However, multiple factors, including migration patterns, food supply, and other contaminants, also likely influenced fueling and departures. PAH contamination in the Gulf of Mexico remains an ongoing issue that may be impacting the staging site quality and migration timing of long-distance migratory birds.

Migratory connectivity in the Loggerhead Shrike (Lanius ludovicianus)

AIM

We combine genetic and stable isotope data to quantify migration patterns in Loggerhead Shrike (Lanius ludovicianus), a species of conservation concern in North America, to assess how connectivity differs and impacts population evolution, ecology, and conservation.

LOCATION

We sampled shrikes across the majority of their nonbreeding range, from the Atlantic Coast to the western United States east of the Rocky Mountains and throughout Mexico.

METHODS

Our study used a Bayesian framework using δ2Hf from a breeding season origin feather and nuclear genetic microsatellite markers to distinguish between co-occurring migratory and nonmigratory individuals on the wintering grounds and, for migrants, to assign individuals to a breeding ground origin and genetic group.

RESULTS

Migratory shrikes were present throughout the nonbreeding range but the proportion differed among sample areas. Four main wintering areas were identified. Connectivity ranged from weakly negative in birds wintering on the Atlantic Coast to strongly positive between wintering grounds in the southwestern United States and Mexico and northwestern breeding populations. Connectivity was weakest in L. l. migrans, and strongest in L. l. mexicanus and L. l. excubitorides. Although believed to be nonmigratory, long-distance movements of individuals were observed in L. ludovicianus and L. l. mexicanus. Our data support a pattern of chain migration, again most notable in the western half of the species nonbreeding range, and differential migration based on age.

MAIN CONCLUSIONS

Our study provides of one such of the first quantitative measures of migratory connectivity and is among the first studies of a short-distance migratory passerine in North America. The higher migratory connectivity among western, versus eastern populations, and less severe population declines attributable to habitat loss or reproductive success, may result in more localized and/or less severe limiting factors for western populations and more severe on the Atlantic coast and Mississippi Alluvial Valley wintering grounds.

Managing birds of conservation concern on sandy shores: How much room for future conservation actions is there?

Resource limitations often prevent the active management required to maintain habitat quality in protected areas. Because restrictions in access or allowable public activities are the sole conservation measure in these locations, an important question to consider is whether species of conservation concern truly benefit from parcels that are shielded from human disturbance. Here, we assess the conservation benefit of protecting birds from human recreation on over 204 km of sandy beaches by (a) estimating the total area of beach-nesting bird habitat that has been created by conservation protections; (b) quantifying the change in nesting habitat extent should further conservation protections be implemented; and (c) providing data to inform future protected area expansion. We use a maximum entropy species distribution modeling approach to estimate the extent and quality of suitable habitat for four beach-nesting bird species of conservation concern under the existing management regime and compare it to scenarios in which the entire study area is either unprotected of fully protected from human disturbance. Managing humans has dramatic conservation returns for least terns and piping plovers, creating extensive nesting habitat that otherwise would not exist. There is considerable scope for conservation gains, potentially tripling the extent of nesting areas. Expanding conservation footprints for American oystercatchers and black skimmers is predicted to enhance the quality of existing nesting areas. The work demonstrates the utility of modeling changes in habitat suitability to inform protected area expansion on ocean beaches and coastal dunes.

Origins of Wilson’s Warblers migrating through southwest Canada: Adding value to banding data by using stable isotopes and genetic markers

Stopovers used by birds during migration concentrate individuals from broad geographic areas potentially providing important information on catchment areas of birds moving through these sites. We combined stable isotope (δ2H), genetic fingerprinting and band recovery data to delineate the molt origins of Wilson’s Warblers (Cardellina pusilla) migrating through a stopover site in southwestern Canada in the fall. We assessed changes in δ2Hf indicating latitudinal origins with ordinal date to show this species likely underwent leapfrog migration through this site. Using the combined approach to determine origins, Wilson’s Warblers migrating through southwestern Alberta in 2015 were mostly from the western boreal population (n = 155, 96%) with some individuals from the Pacific Northwest (n = 1, 0.6%), Rocky Mountain (n = 2, 1.2%) and eastern boreal (n = 3, 1.8%) populations. Our results suggest that individuals migrating through our study site come from a broad catchment area potentially from a large part of northwestern North America. Future studies should link population changes at banding stations with other information to determine associations with large-scale landscape-level drivers (e.g. climate, land use).

Avian demographic responses to drought and fire: a community-level perspective

Drought stress is an important consideration for wildlife in arid and semiarid regions under climate change. Drought can impact plant and animal populations directly, through effects on their physiology, as well as indirectly through effects on vegetation productivity and resource availability, and by creating conditions conducive to secondary disturbance, such as wildfire. We implemented a novel approach to understanding community-level demographic responses of birds and their habitats to these stressors in the context of climate change at 14 study sites in the Four Corners region of the southwestern United States. A large wildfire affecting three of the sites provided a natural experiment for also examining fire effects on vegetation and the bird community. We assessed (1) trends in drought and end-of-century (2071-2100) predicted average drought conditions under mid-range and high greenhouse gas concentration trajectory scenarios; (2) effects of drought and fire on habitat (vegetation greenness); and (3) effects of drought and fire on community-level avian productivity and adult apparent survival rates. Drought has increased and is expected to increase further at our study sites under climate change. Under spring drought conditions, vegetation greenness and avian productivity declined, while summer drought appeared to negatively affect adult apparent survival rates. Response to fire was mixed; in the year of the fire, avian productivity declined, but was higher than normal for several years post-fire. Our results highlight important links between environmental stressors and avian vital rates that will likely affect population trajectories in this region under climate change. We suggest that the use and continued development of community-level demographic models will provide useful tool for leveraging sparse species-level data to provide multi-species inferences and inform conservation.

Seasonal abundance and survival of North America's migratory avifauna determined by weather radar

Avian migration is one of Earth's largest processes of biomass transport, involving billions of birds. We estimated continental biomass flows of nocturnal avian migrants across the contiguous United States using a network of 143 weather radars. We show that, relative to biomass leaving in autumn, proportionally more biomass returned in spring across the southern United States than across the northern United States. Neotropical migrants apparently achieved higher survival during the combined migration and non-breeding period, despite an average three- to fourfold longer migration distance, compared with a more northern assemblage of mostly temperate-wintering migrants. Additional mortality expected with longer migration distances was probably offset by high survival in the (sub)tropics. Nearctic-Neotropical migrants relying on a 'higher survivorship' life-history strategy may be particularly sensitive to variations in survival on the overwintering grounds, highlighting the need to identify and conserve important non-breeding habitats.