Climate change threatens polar bear populations: a stochastic demographic analysis

Parameter Sensitivity of Transient Community Dynamics

AbstractTransient dynamics have always intrigued ecologists, but current rapid environmental change (inducing transients even in previously undisturbed systems) has highlighted their importance more than ever. Here, I introduce a method for analyzing the sensitivity of transient ecological dynamics to parameter perturbations. The question the method answers is: how would the community dynamics have unfolded for some time horizon had the parameters been slightly different? I apply the method to three empirically parameterized models: competition between native forbs and exotic grasses in California, a host-parasitoid system, and an experimental chemostat predator-prey model. These applications showcase the ecological insights one can gain from models using transient sensitivity analysis. First, one can find parameters and their combinations whose perturbations disproportionately affect a system. Second, one can identify particular windows of time during which the predicted deviation from the unperturbed trajectories is especially large and utilize this information for management purposes. Third, there is an inverse relationship between transient and long-term sensitivities whenever the interacting populations are ecologically similar; paradoxically, the smaller the immediate response of the system, the more extreme its long-term response will be.

Extinction risks and mitigation for a megaherbivore, the giraffe, in a human-influenced landscape under climate change

Megaherbivores play "outsized" roles in ecosystem functioning but are vulnerable to human impacts such as overhunting, land-use changes, and climate extremes. However, such impacts-and combinations of these impacts-on population dynamics are rarely examined using empirical data. To guide effective conservation actions under increasing global-change pressures, we developed a socially structured individual-based model (IBM) using long-term demographic data from female giraffes (Giraffa camelopardalis) in a human-influenced landscape in northern Tanzania, the Tarangire Ecosystem. This unfenced system includes savanna habitats with a wide gradient of anthropogenic pressures, from national parks, a wildlife ranch and community conservation areas, to unprotected village lands. We then simulated and projected over 50 years how realistic environmental and land-use management changes might affect this metapopulation of female giraffes. Scenarios included: (1) anthropogenic land-use changes including roads and agricultural/urban expansion; (2) reduction or improvement in wildlife law enforcement measures; (3) changes in populations of natural predators and migratory alternative prey; and (4) increases in rainfall as predicted for East Africa. The factor causing the greatest risk of rapid declines in female giraffe abundance in our simulations was a reduction in law enforcement leading to more poaching. Other threats decreased abundances of giraffes, but improving law enforcement in both of the study area's protected areas mitigated these impacts: a 0.01 increase in giraffe survival probability from improved law enforcement mitigated a 25% rise in heavy rainfall events by increasing abundance 19%, and mitigated the expansion of towns and blockage of dispersal movements by increasing abundance 22%. Our IBM enabled us to further quantify fine-scale abundance changes among female giraffe social communities, revealing potential source-sink interactions within the metapopulation. This flexible methodology can be adapted to test additional ecological questions in this landscape, or to model populations of giraffes or other species in different ecosystems.

An integrative and multi-indicator approach for wildlife health applied to an endangered caribou herd

Assessing wildlife health in remote regions requires a multi-faceted approach, which commonly involves convenient samplings and the need of identifying and targeting relevant and informative indicators. We applied a novel wildlife health framework and critically assessed the value of different indicators for understanding the health status and trends of an endangered tundra caribou population. Samples and data from the Dolphin and Union caribou herd were obtained between 2015 and 2021, from community-based surveillance programs and from captured animals. We documented and categorized indicators into health determinants (infectious diseases and trace elements), processes (cortisol, pathology), and health outcomes (pregnancy and body condition). During a recent period of steep population decline, our results indicated a relatively good body condition and pregnancy rates, and decreasing levels of stress, along with a low adult cow survival. We detected multiple factors as potential contributors to the reduced survival, including Brucella suis biovar 4, Erysipelothrix rhusiopathiae and lower hair trace minerals. These results remark the need of targeted studies to improve detection and investigations on caribou mortalities. We also identified differences in health indicators between captured and hunter sampled caribou, highlighting the importance of accounting for sampling biases. This integrative approach that drew on multiple data sources has provided unprecedented knowledge on the health in this herd and highlights the value of documenting individual animal health to understand causes of wildlife declines.

Unlock the Endangered Species Act to address GHG emissions

For the first time, ESA evaluations can include impacts on polar bears from greenhouse gas emissions.

A body composition model with multiple storage compartments for polar bears (Ursus maritimus)

Climate warming is rapidly altering Arctic ecosystems. Polar bears (Ursus maritimus) need sea ice as a platform from which to hunt seals, but increased sea-ice loss is lengthening periods when bears are without access to primary hunting habitat. During periods of food scarcity, survival depends on the energy that a bear has stored in body reserves, termed storage energy, making this a key metric in predictive models assessing climate change impacts on polar bears. Here, we developed a body composition model for polar bears that estimates storage energy while accounting for changes in storage tissue composition. We used data of dissected polar bears (n = 31) to link routinely collected field measures of total body mass and straight-line body length to the body composition of individual bears, described in terms of structural mass and two storage compartments, adipose and muscle. We then estimated the masses of metabolizable proteins and lipids within these storage compartments, giving total storage energy. We tested this multi-storage model by using it to predict changes in the lipid stores from an independent dataset of wild polar bears (n = 36) that were recaptured 8-200 days later. Using length and mass measurements, our model successfully predicted direct measurements of lipid changes via isotopic dilutions (root mean squared error of 14.5 kg). Separating storage into two compartments, and allowing the molecular composition of storage to vary, provides new avenues for quantifying energy stores of individuals across their life cycle. The multi-storage body composition model thus provides a basis for further exploring energetic costs of physiological processes that contribute to individual survival and reproductive success. Given bioenergetic models are increasingly used as a tool to predict individual fitness and population dynamics, our approach for estimating individual energy stores could be applicable to a wide range of species.

Demographic consequences of changes in environmental periodicity

The fate of natural populations is mediated by complex interactions among vital rates, which can vary within and among years. Although the effects of random, among-year variation in vital rates have been studied extensively, relatively little is known about how periodic, nonrandom variation in vital rates affects populations. This knowledge gap is potentially alarming as global environmental change is projected to alter common periodic variations, such as seasonality. We investigated the effects of changes in vital-rate periodicity on populations of three species representing different forms of adaptation to periodic environments: the yellow-bellied marmot (Marmota flaviventer), adapted to strong seasonality in snowfall; the meerkat (Suricata suricatta), adapted to inter-annual stochasticity as well as seasonal patterns in rainfall; and the dewy pine (Drosophyllum lusitanicum), adapted to fire regimes and periodic post-fire habitat succession. To assess how changes in periodicity affect population growth, we parameterized periodic matrix population models and projected population dynamics under different scenarios of perturbations in the strength of vital-rate periodicity. We assessed the effects of such perturbations on various metrics describing population dynamics, including the stochastic growth rate, log λ_S . Overall, perturbing the strength of periodicity had strong effects on population dynamics in all three study species. For the marmots, log λ_S decreased with increased seasonal differences in adult survival. For the meerkats, density dependence buffered the effects of perturbations of periodicity on log λ_S . Finally, dewy pines were negatively affected by changes in natural post-fire succession under stochastic or periodic fire regimes with fires occurring every 30 years, but were buffered by density dependence from such changes under presumed more frequent fires or large-scale disturbances. We show that changes in the strength of vital-rate periodicity can have diverse but strong effects on population dynamics across different life histories. Populations buffered from inter-annual vital-rate variation can be affected substantially by changes in environmentally driven vital-rate periodic patterns; however, the effects of such changes can be masked in analyses focusing on inter-annual variation. As most ecosystems are affected by periodic variations in the environment such as seasonality, assessing their contributions to population viability for future global-change research is crucial.

Winter mortality of a passerine bird increases following hotter summers and during winters with higher maximum temperatures

Climate change may influence animal population dynamics through reproduction and mortality. However, attributing changes in mortality to specific climate variables is challenging because the exact time of death is usually unknown in the wild. Here, we investigated climate effects on adult mortality in Australian superb fairy-wrens (Malurus cyaneus). Over a 27-year period, mortality outside the breeding season nearly doubled. This nonbreeding season mortality increased with lower minimum (night-time) and higher maximum (day-time) winter temperatures and with higher summer heat wave intensity. Fine-scale analysis showed that higher mortality in a given week was associated with higher maxima 2 weeks prior and lower minima in the current fortnight, indicating costs of temperature drops. Increases in summer heat waves and in winter maximum temperatures collectively explained 62.6% of the increase in mortality over the study period. Our results suggest that warming climate in both summer and winter can adversely affect survival, with potentially substantial population consequences.

Forage quality of consecutive years interact to affect body condition, reproductive rate and rut phenology in Iberian red deer

Body condition for reproduction in capital breeders such as the red deer (Cervus elaphus) is mostly determined by their stored energy reserves. Thus, environmental conditions and resource availability may affect reproductive performance and breeding success. In warm Mediterranean regions, current climate change is driving to a hotter and drier scenario that is expected to affect the biology and dynamics of many populations. We examined the impact of these local climate variations on red deer body condition and the relationship with female reproductive phenology and breeding success. We used satellite information of landscape vegetation along with a 22-year data series of direct field behavioural observations during the rutting season in Doñana National Park (SW Spain). We analyzed faecal nitrogen content (FN) from faeces collected during the rut. We found that poor vegetation availability in drier years was related to worse body condition of deer (measured by FN) and a delay in the rutting season, which associated with lower reproductive rates (measured by the proportion of females with calves observed the next year). We also evidenced an interesting interaction between environmental conditions in consecutive years on the timing of breeding season, with timing of breeding being more delayed when previous year resource availability was high and many females bred, and the consecutive one was poor, so females hardly recovered condition and the rut occurred later. These findings highlight the carry-over effect of reproduction in capital breeders and the potential impact of climate-change conditions on red deer breeding.

Lost to the Sea: Predicted Climate Change Threats to Saltwater Crocodile Nesting Habitat

Climate change is predicted to have devastating impacts on apex predators such as eliminating their required habitats. Crocodilians are no exception as most species require freshwater for nesting, and such freshwater habitats are particularly vulnerable to saltwater inundation (SWI) caused by the sea level rise (SLR) from global warming. Here, we examined the impacts of climate change on saltwater crocodiles Crocodylus porosus in terms of the potential loss of nesting habitat in the Northern Territory, Australia; an area that contains the world’s most extensive nesting habitat for the species. Our spatial model, derived from 730 nest locations and selected environmental features, estimated a total of 32,306.91 km2 of current suitable habitat across the study region. The most important variable was distance to perennial lakes (71.0% contribution, 87.5% permutation importance), which is negatively correlated with nesting habitat suitability. We found that projected changes in temperature and rainfall by 2100 could impact the area of suitable nesting habitat negatively or positively (0.33% decrease under low future emission climate scenario, and 32.30% increase under high emission scenario). Nevertheless, this can be canceled by the strong negative impact of SLR and concomitant SWI on nesting areas. A portion (16.40%) of the modeled suitable habitat for a subsection of our study area, the Kakadu Region, were already subject to > 0.25 m SWI in 2013. The suitable area for nesting in this region is predicted to be further reduced to 1775.70 km2 with 1.1 m SLR predicted for 2100, representing 49.81% loss between 2013 and 2100. Although the estimates of habitat loss do not account for the potential creation of new habitat, nor for the uncertainty in the degree of future SLR, our results suggest that SLR driven by continuing global warming can be the major threat to mound-nest-building crocodilians including C. porosus, rather than direct impacts from changes in temperature and rainfall. The degree of impact on saltwater crocodiles will be determined by the interplay between the loss of nesting habitat, which would appear inevitable under current global warming, and the ability to expand into new areas created by the expansion of the tropics.

Increasing Arctic Tundra Flooding Threatens Wildlife Habitat and Survival: Impacts on the Critically Endangered Siberian Crane (Grus leucogeranus)

Climate change is causing Arctic temperatures to increase at least twice as fast as the planet on average. Temperature and precipitation are predicted to continue increasing, such that flooding might become more prevalent in the new Arctic. Increased flooding frequency and extreme flooding events may pose new threats to Arctic biodiversity through habitat disturbance and decreased survival. We used the Siberian crane (Grus leucogeranus) as a model organism to investigate how flooding influences nesting habitat availability and juvenile counts. When spring flooding destroys eggs, adults either do not raise any chicks or have reduced time to prepare them for their long migration to China, thus years with extensive flooding could negatively impact future crane generations. We used nest site observation data from 14 surveys between 1995 and 2019, habitat mapping based on Landsat 8 imagery, and species distribution modeling to predict Siberian crane potential nesting habitat. Nesting habitat loss due to extreme flooding was calculated by overlaying this potential nesting habitat with Global Surface Water data. The percent of potential flooded nest sites varied between 6.7–55% across years, with a significant increase between 2001 and 2018. Extreme flood events, as experienced in 2017 and 2018, eliminated almost half of the potential nesting habitat. Importantly, we found that the percentage of flooded nest sites across years was negatively correlated with the number of observed juveniles. The Arctic lowlands are exposed to seasonal water level fluctuations that species have evolved with and adapted to. Siberian cranes and other species depending on Arctic ecosystems are expected to continue adapting to changing flood conditions, but extreme flood events further threaten the long-term survival of critically endangered species. It is imperative to assess how ecosystems and species respond to climatic extremes to support Arctic conservation strategies.

Extreme climate events limit northern range expansion of wild turkeys

For species inhabiting areas at the limit of their environmental tolerance, extreme events often drive population persistence. However, because extreme events are uncommon, their effects on population dynamics of expanding species are poorly known. We examined how extreme climate events in winter and summer affected three populations of wild turkeys occupying a natural climate gradient at the northern edge of their range. First, we examined the mechanism by which vital rates affect the population growth rate. Second, we developed a climate-dependent structured population model. Finally, by linking this population model to IPCC-class climate projections, we projected wild turkey population abundance in response to the frequency of extreme snow events by 2100 for the northernmost population. We showed that the population dynamics of the three populations is driven through different pathways expected from the theory of invading population dynamics; that those populations were mainly limited by heavy snow that decreases winter survival by restraining food access; and that a population of immigrant is projected to decline at the northern species range. This study exemplifies how extreme events affect population dynamics and range expansion of temperate species at the northern edge of the distribution.

The interplay between hunting rate, hunting selectivity, and reproductive strategies shapes population dynamics of a large carnivore

Harvest, through its intensity and regulation, often results in selection on female reproductive traits. Changes in female traits can have demographic consequences, as they are fundamental in shaping population dynamics. It is thus imperative to understand and quantify the demographic consequences of changes in female reproductive traits to better understand and anticipate population trajectories under different harvest intensities and regulations. Here, using a dynamic, frequency-dependent, population model of the intensively hunted brown bear (Ursus arctos) population in Sweden, we quantify and compare population responses to changes in four reproductive traits susceptible to harvest-induced selection: litter size, weaning age, age at first reproduction, and annual probability to reproduce. We did so for different hunting quotas and under four possible hunting regulations: (i) no individuals are protected, (ii) mothers but not dependent offspring are protected, (iii) mothers and dependent offspring of the year (cubs) are protected, and (iv) entire family groups are protected (i.e., mothers and dependent offspring of any age). We found that population growth rate declines sharply with increasing hunting quotas. Increases in litter size and the probability to reproduce have the greatest potential to affect population growth rate. Population growth rate increases the most when mothers are protected. Adding protection on offspring (of any age), however, reduces the availability of bears for hunting, which feeds back to increase hunting pressure on the nonprotected categories of individuals, leading to reduced population growth. Finally, we found that changes in reproductive traits can dampen population declines at very high hunting quotas, but only when protecting mothers. Our results illustrate that changes in female reproductive traits may have context-dependent consequences for demography. Thus, to predict population consequences of harvest-induced selection in wild populations, it is critical to integrate both hunting intensity and regulation, especially if hunting selectivity targets female reproductive strategies.

The myriad of complex demographic responses of terrestrial mammals to climate change and gaps of knowledge: A global analysis

Approximately 25% of mammals are currently threatened with extinction, a risk that is amplified under climate change. Species persistence under climate change is determined by the combined effects of climatic factors on multiple demographic rates (survival, development and reproduction), and hence, population dynamics. Thus, to quantify which species and regions on Earth are most vulnerable to climate-driven extinction, a global understanding of how different demographic rates respond to climate is urgently needed. Here, we perform a systematic review of literature on demographic responses to climate, focusing on terrestrial mammals, for which extensive demographic data are available. To assess the full spectrum of responses, we synthesize information from studies that quantitatively link climate to multiple demographic rates. We find only 106 such studies, corresponding to 87 mammal species. These 87 species constitute <1% of all terrestrial mammals. Our synthesis reveals a strong mismatch between the locations of demographic studies and the regions and taxa currently recognized as most vulnerable to climate change. Surprisingly, for most mammals and regions sensitive to climate change, holistic demographic responses to climate remain unknown. At the same time, we reveal that filling this knowledge gap is critical as the effects of climate change will operate via complex demographic mechanisms: a vast majority of mammal populations display projected increases in some demographic rates but declines in others, often depending on the specific environmental context, complicating simple projections of population fates. Assessments of population viability under climate change are in critical need to gather data that account for multiple demographic responses, and coordinated actions to assess demography holistically should be prioritized for mammals and other taxa.

Modeling the demography of species providing extended parental care: A capture-recapture multievent model with a case study on polar bears (Ursus maritimus)

In species providing extended parental care, one or both parents care for altricial young over a period including more than one breeding season. We expect large parental investment and long-term dependency within family units to cause high variability in life trajectories among individuals with complex consequences at the population level. So far, models for estimating demographic parameters in free-ranging animal populations mostly ignore extended parental care, thereby limiting our understanding of its consequences on parents and offspring life histories.We designed a capture-recapture multievent model for studying the demography of species providing extended parental care. It handles statistical multiple-year dependency among individual demographic parameters grouped within family units, variable litter size, and uncertainty on the timing at offspring independence. It allows for the evaluation of trade-offs among demographic parameters, the influence of past reproductive history on the caring parent's survival status, breeding probability, and litter size probability, while accounting for imperfect detection of family units. We assess the model performance using simulated data and illustrate its use with a long-term dataset collected on the Svalbard polar bears (Ursus maritimus).Our model performed well in terms of bias and mean square error and in estimating demographic parameters in all simulated scenarios, both when offspring departure probability from the family unit occurred at a constant rate or varied during the field season depending on the date of capture. For the polar bear case study, we provide estimates of adult and dependent offspring survival rates, breeding probability, and litter size probability. Results showed that the outcome of the previous reproduction influenced breeding probability.Overall, our results show the importance of accounting for i) the multiple-year statistical dependency within family units, ii) uncertainty on the timing at offspring independence, and iii) past reproductive history of the caring parent. If ignored, estimates obtained for breeding probability, litter size, and survival can be biased. This is of interest in terms of conservation because species providing extended parental care are often long-living mammals vulnerable or threatened with extinction.

Exposure of Tribolium castaneum (Herbst) females to pirimiphos-methyl alters the fitness of their progeny

Insecticidal treatment is a common practice for the control of stored-product insect pests. Most studies are focused on the direct effects of insecticides on target insects, while there are no data on the indirect effects on adults in terms of progeny fitness. This study deals with the effect of pirimiphos-methyl on adults of Tribolium castaneum (Coleoptera: Tenebrionidae), investigating their exposure time cost to progeny fitness. For this purpose, females of T. castaneum were exposed for 1, 3, 8, 16, 24, and 72 h to pirimiphos-methyl and progeny birth or death rates were calculated. The fecundity, as well as the survival of progeny, was affected by the parental exposure to the insecticide. When females were exposed for 1 and 3 h to pirimiphos-methyl, the net reproductive rate of the progeny was 4.1 and 4.3 females/female, respectively, which did not statistically differ with the progeny in control treatment (6.3 females/female). Further exposure time to pirimiphos-methyl affected significantly the progeny net reproductive rate, where the lowest value was observed at the 72-h exposure time (0.97 females/female). The intrinsic rate of increase, as well as the finite rate of increase, did not differ between the progeny of the control treatment (0.029 females/female/day and 1.029, respectively) and the progeny of exposed females at 1 h (0.021 females/female/day and 1.021, respectively) or 3 h (0.023 females/female/day and 1.023, respectively). By increasing the time of exposure to pirimiphos-methyl, a detrimental effect to progeny fitness was revealed based on the values of the intrinsic and finite rate of increase. The lowest values of these parameters were observed at the 72-h exposure time (0.001 females/female/day and 1.000, respectively). The same trend was observed in the values of the doubling time. In contrast, the mean generation time did not statistically differ between control and all insecticide treatments. The fact that the exposure of parental females of T. castaneum to pirimiphos-methyl negatively affects the demographic parameters of their offspring production should be seriously taken into account when management strategies are applied against this notorious stored-product insect species since it could reduce the repeatedly insecticidal applications in storage facilities.

The Importance of Environmental Variability and Transient Population Dynamics for a Northern Ungulate

The pathways through which environmental variability affects population dynamics remain poorly understood, limiting ecological inference and management actions. Here, we use matrix-based population models to examine the vital rate responses to environmental variability and individual traits, and subsequent transient dynamics of the population in response to the environment. Using Sitka black-tailed deer (Odocoileus hemionus sitkensis) in Southeast Alaska as a study system, we modeled effects of inter-annual process variance of covariates on female survival, pregnancy rate, and fetal rate, and summer and winter fawn survival. To examine the influence of environmental variance on population dynamics, we compared asymptotic and transient perturbation analysis (elasticity analysis, a life-table response experiment, and transience simulation). We found that summer fawn survival was primarily determined by black bear (Ursus americanus) predation and was positively influenced by mass at birth and female sex. Winter fawn survival was determined by malnutrition in deep-snow winters and was influenced by an interaction between date of birth and snow depth, with late-born fawns at greater risk in deep-snow winters. Adult female survival was the most influential vital rate based on classic elasticity analysis, however, elasticity analysis based on process variation indicated that winter and summer fawn survival were most variable and thus most influential to variability in population growth. Transient dynamics produced by non-stable stage distributions produced realized annual growth rates different from predicted asymptotic growth rates in all years, emphasizing the importance of winter perturbations to population dynamics of this species.

How does increasing mast seeding frequency affect population dynamics of seed consumers? Wild boar as a case study

Mast seeding in temperate oak populations shapes the dynamics of seed consumers and numerous communities. Mast seeding responds positively to warm spring temperatures and is therefore expected to increase under global warming. We investigated the potential effects of changes in oak mast seeding on wild boar population dynamics, a widespread and abundant consumer species. Using long-term monitoring data, we showed that abundant acorn production enhances the proportion of breeding females. With a body-mass-structured population model and a fixed hunting rate of 0.424, we showed that high acorn production over time would lead to an average wild boar population growth rate of 1.197 whereas non-acorn production would lead to a stable population. Finally, using climate projections and a mechanistic model linking weather data to oak reproduction, we predicted that mast seeding frequency might increase over the next century, which would lead to increase in both wild boar population size and the magnitude of its temporal variation. Our study provides rare evidence that some species could greatly benefit from global warming thanks to higher food availability and therefore highlights the importance of investigating the cascading effects of changing weather conditions on the dynamics of wild animal populations to reliably assess the effects of climate change.

The Paris Agreement objectives will likely halt future declines of emperor penguins

The Paris Agreement is a multinational initiative to combat climate change by keeping a global temperature increase in this century to 2°C above preindustrial levels while pursuing efforts to limit the increase to 1.5°C. Until recently, ensembles of coupled climate simulations producing temporal dynamics of climate en route to stable global mean temperature at 1.5 and 2°C above preindustrial levels were not available. Hence, the few studies that have assessed the ecological impact of the Paris Agreement used ad-hoc approaches. The development of new specific mitigation climate simulations now provides an unprecedented opportunity to inform ecological impact assessments. Here we project the dynamics of all known emperor penguin (Aptenodytes forsteri) colonies under new climate change scenarios meeting the Paris Agreement objectives using a climate-dependent-metapopulation model. Our model includes various dispersal behaviors so that penguins could modulate climate effects through movement and habitat selection. Under business-as-usual greenhouse gas emissions, we show that 80% of the colonies are projected to be quasiextinct by 2100, thus the total abundance of emperor penguins is projected to decline by at least 81% relative to its initial size, regardless of dispersal abilities. In contrast, if the Paris Agreement objectives are met, viable emperor penguin refuges will exist in Antarctica, and only 19% and 31% colonies are projected to be quasiextinct by 2100 under the Paris 1.5 and 2 climate scenarios respectively. As a result, the global population is projected to decline by at least by 31% under Paris 1.5 and 44% under Paris 2. However, population growth rates stabilize in 2060 such that the global population will be only declining at 0.07% under Paris 1.5 and 0.34% under Paris 2, thereby halting the global population decline. Hence, global climate policy has a larger capacity to safeguard the future of emperor penguins than their intrinsic dispersal abilities.

A critical appraisal of population viability analysis

Population viability analysis (PVA) is useful in management of imperiled species. Applications range from research design, threat assessment, and development of management frameworks. Given the importance of PVAs, it is essential that they be rigorous and adhere to widely accepted guidelines; however, the quality of published PVAs is rarely assessed. We evaluated the quality of 160 PVAs of 144 species of birds and mammals published in peer-reviewed journals from 1990 to 2017. We hypothesized that PVA quality would be lower with generic programs than with custom-built programs; be higher for those developed for imperiled species; change over time; and be higher for those published in journals with high impact factors (IFs). Each included study was evaluated based on answers to an evaluation framework containing 32 questions reflecting whether and to what extent the PVA study adhered to published PVA guidelines or contained important PVA components. All measures of PVA quality were generally lower for studies based on generic programs. Conservation status of the species did not affect any measure of PVA quality, but PVAs published in high IF journals were of higher quality. Quality generally declined over time, suggesting the quantitative literacy of PVA practitioners has not increased over time or that PVAs developed by unskilled users are being published in peer-reviewed journals. Only 18.1% of studies were of high quality (score >75%), which is troubling because poor-quality PVAs could misinform conservation decisions. We call for increased scrutiny of PVAs by journal editors and reviewers. Our evaluation framework can be used for this purpose. Because poor-quality PVAs continue to be published, we recommend caution while using PVA results in conservation decision making without thoroughly assessing the PVA quality.

Modeling optimal responses and fitness consequences in a changing Arctic

Animals must balance a series of costs and benefits while trying to maximize their fitness. For example, an individual may need to choose how much energy to allocate to reproduction versus growth, or how much time to spend on vigilance versus foraging. Their decisions depend on complex interactions between environmental conditions, behavioral plasticity, reproductive biology, and energetic demands. As animals respond to novel environmental conditions caused by climate change, the optimal decisions may shift. Stochastic dynamic programming provides a flexible modeling framework with which to explore these trade-offs, but this method has not yet been used to study possible changes in optimal trade-offs caused by climate change. We created a stochastic dynamic programming model capturing trade-off decisions required by an individual adult female polar bear (Ursus maritimus) as well as the fitness consequences of her decisions. We predicted optimal foraging decisions throughout her lifetime as well as the energetic thresholds below which it is optimal for her to abandon a reproductive attempt. To explore the effects of climate change, we shortened the spring feeding period by up to 3 weeks, which led to predictions of riskier foraging behavior and higher reproductive thresholds. The resulting changes in fitness may be interpreted as a best-case scenario, where bears adapt instantaneously and optimally to new environmental conditions. If the spring feeding period was reduced by 1 week, her expected fitness declined by 15%, and if reduced by 3 weeks, expected fitness declined by 68%. This demonstrates an effective way to explore a species' optimal response to a changing landscape of costs and benefits and highlights the fact that small annual effects can result in large cumulative changes in expected lifetime fitness.

Ringed seal demography in a changing climate

Climate change is affecting species' distributions and abundances worldwide. Baseline population estimates, against which future observations may be compared, are necessary if we are to detect ecological change. Arctic sea ice ecosystems are changing rapidly and we lack baseline population estimates for many ice-associated species. Provided we can detect them, changes in Arctic marine ecosystems may be signaled by changes in indicator species such as ringed seals (Pusa hispida). Ringed seal monitoring has provided estimates of survival and fertility rates, but these have not been used for population-level inference. Using matrix population models, we synthesized existing demographic parameters to obtain estimates of historical ringed seal population growth and structure in Amundsen Gulf and Prince Albert Sound, Canada. We then formalized existing hypotheses about the effects of emerging environmental stressors (i.e., earlier spring ice breakup and reduced snow depth) on ringed seal pup survival. Coupling the demographic model to ice and snow forecasts available from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project resulted in projections of ringed seal population size and structure up to the year 2100. These projections showed median declines in population size ranging from 50% to 99%. Corresponding to these projected declines were substantial changes in population structure, with increasing proportions of ringed seal pups and adults and declining proportions of juveniles. We explored if currently collected, harvest-based data could be used to detect the projected changes in population stage structure. Our model suggests that at a present sample size of 100 seals per year, the projected changes in stage structure would only be reliably detected by mid-century, even for the most extreme climate models. This modeling process revealed inconsistencies in existing estimates of ringed seal demographic rates. Mathematical population models such as these can contribute both to understanding past population trends as well as predicting future ones, both of which are necessary if we are to detect and interpret future observations.

Elucidating fitness components of the invasive dermestid beetle Trogoderma granarium combining deterministic and stochastic demography

The invasive dermestid khapra beetle, Trogoderma granarium, is an important pest of stored products that is subject to strict phytosanitary measures. In this study, we conducted a demographic analysis of this species at 30, 35 and 40°C, combining deterministic and stochastic approaches. The net reproductive rate, the intrinsic rate of increase, the finite rate of increase and the doubling time did not differ significantly between 30 and 35°C, while at 40°C we detected negative values of the intrinsic rate of increase and the doubling time. The Briere model fit the data well with respect to the intrinsic rate of increase. Females of roughly 63, 42 and 21 days old reached their maximum reproductive potential at 30, 35 and 40°C, respectively. The stochastic models of this study allowed for checking model fit and the characterization of the most suitable distribution for each component of the process. We expect these results to have bearing on the management of T. granarium since they could be combined with models related to international trade and climatic change, alerting specialists towards early detection strategies against this species.

Integrated Population Modeling Provides the First Empirical Estimates of Vital Rates and Abundance for Polar Bears in the Chukchi Sea

Large carnivores are imperiled globally, and characteristics making them vulnerable to extinction (e.g., low densities and expansive ranges) also make it difficult to estimate demographic parameters needed for management. Here we develop an integrated population model to analyze capture-recapture, radiotelemetry, and count data for the Chukchi Sea subpopulation of polar bears (Ursus maritimus), 2008-2016. Our model addressed several challenges in capture-recapture studies for polar bears by including a multievent structure reflecting location and life history states, while accommodating state uncertainty. Female breeding probability was 0.83 (95% credible interval [CRI] = 0.71-0.90), with litter sizes of 2.18 (95% CRI = 1.71-2.82) for age-zero and 1.61 (95% CRI = 1.46-1.80) for age-one cubs. Total adult survival was 0.90 (95% CRI = 0.86-0.92) for females and 0.89 (95% CRI = 0.83-0.93) for males. Spring on-ice densities west of Alaska were 0.0030 bears/km2 (95% CRI = 0.0016-0.0060), similar to 1980s-era density estimates although methodological differences complicate comparison. Abundance of the Chukchi Sea subpopulation, derived by extrapolating density from the study area using a spatially-explicit habitat metric, was 2,937 bears (95% CRI = 1,552-5,944). Our findings are consistent with other lines of evidence suggesting the Chukchi Sea subpopulation has been productive in recent years, although it is uncertain how long this will continue given sea-ice loss due to climate change.

Taxonomy-based hierarchical analysis of natural mortality: polar and subpolar phocid seals

Knowledge of life-history parameters is frequently lacking in many species and populations, often because they are cryptic or logistically challenging to study, but also because life-history parameters can be difficult to estimate with adequate precision. We suggest using hierarchical Bayesian analysis (HBA) to analyze variation in life-history parameters among related species, with prior variance components representing shared taxonomy, phenotypic plasticity, and observation error. We develop such a framework to analyze U-shaped natural mortality patterns typical of mammalian life history from a variety of sparse datasets. Using 39 datasets from seals in the family Phocidae, we analyzed 16 models with different formulations for natural morality, specifically the amount of taxonomic and data-level variance components (subfamily, species, study, and dataset levels) included in mortality hazard parameters. The highest-ranked model according to DIC included subfamily-, species-, and dataset-level parameter variance components and resulted in typical U-shaped hazard functions for the 11 seal species in the study. Species with little data had survival schedules shrunken to the mean. We suggest that evolutionary and population ecologists consider employing HBA to quantify variation in life-history parameters. This approach can be useful for increasing the precision of estimates resulting from a collection of (often sparse) datasets, and for producing prior distributions for populations missing life-history data.

Effects of uncertainty and variability on population declines and IUCN Red List classifications

The International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List Categories and Criteria is a quantitative framework for classifying species according to extinction risk. Population models may be used to estimate extinction risk or population declines. Uncertainty and variability arise in threat classifications through measurement and process error in empirical data and uncertainty in the models used to estimate extinction risk and population declines. Furthermore, species traits are known to affect extinction risk. We investigated the effects of measurement and process error, model type, population growth rate, and age at first reproduction on the reliability of risk classifications based on projected population declines on IUCN Red List classifications. We used an age-structured population model to simulate true population trajectories with different growth rates, reproductive ages and levels of variation, and subjected them to measurement error. We evaluated the ability of scalar and matrix models parameterized with these simulated time series to accurately capture the IUCN Red List classification generated with true population declines. Under all levels of measurement error tested and low process error, classifications were reasonably accurate; scalar and matrix models yielded roughly the same rate of misclassifications, but the distribution of errors differed; matrix models led to greater overestimation of extinction risk than underestimations; process error tended to contribute to misclassifications to a greater extent than measurement error; and more misclassifications occurred for fast, rather than slow, life histories. These results indicate that classifications of highly threatened taxa (i.e., taxa with low growth rates) under criterion A are more likely to be reliable than for less threatened taxa when assessed with population models. Greater scrutiny needs to be placed on data used to parameterize population models for species with high growth rates, particularly when available evidence indicates a potential transition to higher risk categories.

Decadal-scale variation in diet forecasts persistently poor breeding under ocean warming in a tropical seabird

Climate change effects on population dynamics of natural populations are well documented at higher latitudes, where relatively rapid warming illuminates cause-effect relationships, but not in the tropics and especially the marine tropics, where warming has been slow. Here we forecast the indirect effect of ocean warming on a top predator, Nazca boobies in the equatorial Galápagos Islands, where rising water temperature is expected to exceed the upper thermal tolerance of a key prey item in the future, severely reducing its availability within the boobies' foraging envelope. From 1983 to 1997 boobies ate mostly sardines, a densely aggregated, highly nutritious food. From 1997 until the present, flying fish, a lower quality food, replaced sardines. Breeding success under the poor diet fell dramatically, causing the population growth rate to fall below 1, indicating a shrinking population. Population growth may not recover: rapid future warming is predicted around Galápagos, usually exceeding the upper lethal temperature and maximum spawning temperature of sardines within 100 years, displacing them permanently from the boobies' island-constrained foraging range. This provides rare evidence of the effect of ocean warming on a tropical marine vertebrate.

Adaptations to polar life in mammals and birds

This Review presents a broad overview of adaptations of truly Arctic and Antarctic mammals and birds to the challenges of polar life. The polar environment may be characterized by grisly cold, scarcity of food and darkness in winter, and lush conditions and continuous light in summer. Resident animals cope with these changes by behavioural, physical and physiological means. These include responses aimed at reducing exposure, such as 'balling up', huddling and shelter building; seasonal changes in insulation by fur, plumage and blubber; and circulatory adjustments aimed at preservation of core temperature, to which end the periphery and extremities are cooled to increase insulation. Newborn altricial animals have profound tolerance to hypothermia, but depend on parental care for warmth, whereas precocial mammals are well insulated and respond to cold with non-shivering thermogenesis in brown adipose tissue, and precocial birds shiver to produce heat. Most polar animals prepare themselves for shortness of food during winter by the deposition of large amounts of fat in times of plenty during autumn. These deposits are governed by a sliding set-point for body fatness throughout winter so that they last until the sun reappears in spring. Polar animals are, like most others, primarily active during the light part of the day, but when the sun never sets in summer and darkness prevails during winter, high-latitude animals become intermittently active around the clock, allowing opportunistic feeding at all times. The importance of understanding the needs of the individuals of a species to understand the responses of populations in times of climate change is emphasized.

Increasing nest predation will be insufficient to maintain polar bear body condition in the face of sea ice loss

Climate change can influence interspecific interactions by differentially affecting species-specific phenology. In seasonal ice environments, there is evidence that polar bear predation of Arctic bird eggs is increasing because of earlier sea ice breakup, which forces polar bears into nearshore terrestrial environments where Arctic birds are nesting. Because polar bears can consume a large number of nests before becoming satiated, and because they can swim between island colonies, they could have dramatic influences on seabird and sea duck reproductive success. However, it is unclear whether nest foraging can provide an energetic benefit to polar bear populations, especially given the capacity of bird populations to redistribute in response to increasing predation pressure. In this study, we develop a spatially explicit agent-based model of the predator-prey relationship between polar bears and common eiders, a common and culturally important bird species for northern peoples. Our model is composed of two types of agents (polar bear agents and common eider hen agents) whose movements and decision heuristics are based on species-specific bioenergetic and behavioral ecological principles, and are influenced by historical and extrapolated sea ice conditions. Our model reproduces empirical findings that polar bear predation of bird nests is increasing and predicts an accelerating relationship between advancing ice breakup dates and the number of nests depredated. Despite increases in nest predation, our model predicts that polar bear body condition during the ice-free period will continue to decline. Finally, our model predicts that common eider nests will become more dispersed and will move closer to the mainland in response to increasing predation, possibly increasing their exposure to land-based predators and influencing the livelihood of local people that collect eider eggs and down. These results show that predator-prey interactions can have nonlinear responses to changes in climate and provides important predictions of ecological change in Arctic ecosystems.

Harvesting wildlife affected by climate change: a modelling and management approach for polar bears

The conservation of many wildlife species requires understanding the demographic effects of climate change, including interactions between climate change and harvest, which can provide cultural, nutritional or economic value to humans.We present a demographic model that is based on the polar bear Ursus maritimus life cycle and includes density-dependent relationships linking vital rates to environmental carrying capacity (K). Using this model, we develop a state-dependent management framework to calculate a harvest level that (i) maintains a population above its maximum net productivity level (MNPL; the population size that produces the greatest net increment in abundance) relative to a changing K, and (ii) has a limited negative effect on population persistence.Our density-dependent relationships suggest that MNPL for polar bears occurs at approximately 0·69 (95% CI = 0·63-0·74) of K. Population growth rate at MNPL was approximately 0·82 (95% CI = 0·79-0·84) of the maximum intrinsic growth rate, suggesting relatively strong compensation for human-caused mortality.Our findings indicate that it is possible to minimize the demographic risks of harvest under climate change, including the risk that harvest will accelerate population declines driven by loss of the polar bear's sea-ice habitat. This requires that (i) the harvest rate - which could be 0 in some situations - accounts for a population's intrinsic growth rate, (ii) the harvest rate accounts for the quality of population data (e.g. lower harvest when uncertainty is large), and (iii) the harvest level is obtained by multiplying the harvest rate by an updated estimate of population size. Environmental variability, the sex and age of removed animals and risk tolerance can also affect the harvest rate. Synthesis and applications. We present a coupled modelling and management approach for wildlife that accounts for climate change and can be used to balance trade-offs among multiple conservation goals. In our example application to polar bears experiencing sea-ice loss, the goals are to maintain population viability while providing continued opportunities for subsistence harvest. Our approach may be relevant to other species for which near-term management is focused on human factors that directly influence population dynamics within the broader context of climate-induced habitat degradation.

Demographic, ecological, and physiological responses of ringed seals to an abrupt decline in sea ice availability

To assess whether demographic declines of Arctic species at the southern limit of their range will be gradual or punctuated, we compared large-scale environmental patterns including sea ice dynamics to ringed seal (Pusa hispida) reproduction, body condition, recruitment, and stress in Hudson Bay from 2003 to 2013. Aerial surveys suggested a gradual decline in seal density from 1995 to 2013, with the lowest density occurring in 2013. Body condition decreased and stress (cortisol) increased over time in relation to longer open water periods. The 2010 open water period in Hudson Bay coincided with extremes in large-scale atmospheric patterns (North Atlantic Oscillation, Arctic Oscillation, El Nino-Southern Oscillation) resulting in the earliest spring breakup and the latest ice formation on record. The warming event was coincident with high stress level, low ovulation rate, low pregnancy rate, few pups in the Inuit harvest, and observations of sick seals. Results provide evidence of changes in the condition of Arctic marine mammals in relation to climate mediated sea ice dynamics. We conclude that although negative demographic responses of Hudson Bay seals are occurring gradually with diminishing sea ice, a recent episodic environmental event played a significant role in a punctuated population decline.

Habitat-mediated timing of migration in polar bears: an individual perspective

Migration phenology is largely determined by how animals respond to seasonal changes in environmental conditions. Our perception of the relationship between migratory behavior and environmental cues can vary depending on the spatial scale at which these interactions are measured. Understanding the behavioral mechanisms behind population‐scale movements requires knowledge of how individuals respond to local cues. We show how time‐to‐event models can be used to predict what factors are associated with the timing of an individual's migratory behavior using data from GPS collared polar bears (Ursus maritimus) that move seasonally between sea ice and terrestrial habitats. We found the concentration of sea ice that bears experience at a local level, along with the duration of exposure to these conditions, was most associated with individual migration timing. Our results corroborate studies that assume thresholds of >50% sea ice concentration are necessary for suitable polar bear habitat; however, continued periods (e.g., days to weeks) of exposure to suboptimal ice concentrations during seasonal melting were required before the proportion of bears migrating to land increased substantially. Time‐to‐event models are advantageous for examining individual movement patterns because they account for the idea that animals make decisions based on an accumulation of knowledge from the landscapes they move through and not simply the environment they are exposed to at the time of a decision. Understanding the migration behavior of polar bears moving between terrestrial and marine habitat, at multiple spatiotemporal scales, will be a major aspect of quantifying observed and potential demographic responses to climate‐induced environmental changes.