Demographic models inform selection of biocontrol agents for garlic mustard (Alliaria petiolata)

Residence time determines invasiveness and performance of garlic mustard (Alliaria petiolata) in North America

While biological invasions have the potential for large negative impacts on local communities and ecological interactions, increasing evidence suggests that species once considered major problems can decline over time. Declines often appear driven by natural enemies, diseases or evolutionary adaptations that selectively reduce populations of naturalised species and their impacts. Using permanent long-term monitoring locations, we document declines of Alliaria petiolata (garlic mustard) in eastern North America with distinct local and regional dynamics as a function of patch residence time. Projected site-specific population growth rates initially indicated expanding populations, but projected population growth rates significantly decreased over time and at the majority of sites fell below 1, indicating declining populations. Negative soil feedback provides a potential mechanism for the reported disappearance of ecological dominance of A. petiolata in eastern North America.

Modeling the combined impacts of host plant resistance and biological control on the population dynamics of a major pest of wheat

BACKGROUND

Single-tool approaches often fail to provide effective long-term suppression of pest populations, such that combining several tools into an integrated management strategy is critical. Yet studies that harness the power of population models to explore the relative efficacy of various management tools and their combinations remain rare. We constructed a Leslie matrix population model to evaluate the potential of crop resistance, acting alone or in combination with biological control, to reduce populations of the wheat stem sawfly, Cephus cinctus Norton, a major pest of wheat in North America.

RESULTS

Our model projections indicated that crop resistance reduced, but did not stop, C. cinctus population growth, suggesting that implementing multiple management tools will be necessary for longer term control of this pest. The levels of parasitism needed to curtail population growth were much lower in model projections for resistant solid-stemmed compared with susceptible hollow-stemmed cultivars (22% versus 86%). Furthermore, even when accounting for the reduced levels of parasitism observed in resistant cultivars, projected population growth rates for C. cinctus were always lower in resistant compared with susceptible wheat cultivars.

CONCLUSION

Despite some empirical evidence for antagonistic interactions between resistance and biological control, our models suggest that combining these two approaches will always reduce population growth rates to lower levels than implementing either strategy alone. More work focused on integrating biological control into crop resistance breeding programs, and determining how these approaches affect performance of limiting life stages, will be important to optimize sustainable approaches to integrated pest management in this system and more broadly. Published 2020. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

A global review of target impact and direct nontarget effects of classical weed biological control

Recent reviews show that classical weed biocontrol measures can be successful in reducing the negative impacts of invasive plant species, have impressive returns on investment, and contribute to slower rates of weed spread. Quantitative post-release monitoring is necessary to account for differences in biocontrol outcomes across spatial and temporal scales. Direct nontarget attack (NTA) incidence and severity are decreasing over time, and pre-release host-specificity tests can accurately predict NTA post-release, as long as the nontarget plant species are included in testing. Less than 1% of NTA was found where the impacted plant species had been tested pre-release and was deemed not at risk. Effectiveness and environmental safety will likely further improve with the incorporation of new technologies, such as experimental evolutionary studies.

When misconceptions impede best practices: evidence supports biological control of invasive Phragmites

Development of a biological control program for invasive Phagmites australis australis in North America required 20 years of careful research, and consideration of management alternatives. A recent paper by Kiviat et al. (Biol Invasions 21:2529–2541, 2019. 10.1007/s10530-019-02014-9) articulates opposition to this biocontrol program and questions the ethics and thoroughness of the researchers. Here we address inaccuracies and misleading statements presented in Kiviat et al. (2019), followed by a brief overview of why biological control targeting Phragmites in North America can be implemented safely with little risk to native species. Similar to our colleagues, we are very concerned about the risks invasive Phragmites represent to North American habitats. But to protect those habitats and the species, including P. australis americanus, we come to a different decision regarding biological control. Current management techniques have not been able to reverse the invasiveness of P. australis australis, threats to native rare and endangered species continue, and large-scale herbicide campaigns are not only costly, but also represent threats to non-target species. We see implementation of biocontrol as the best hope for managing one of the most problematic invasive plants in North America. After extensive review, our petition to release two host specific stem miners was approved by The Technical Advisory Group for the Release of Biological Control Agents in the US and Canadian federal authorities.

A matrix model describing host-parasitoid population dynamics: The case of Aphelinus certus and soybean aphid

Integrating elements from life tables into population models within a matrix framework has been an underutilized method of describing host-parasitoid population dynamics. This type of modeling is useful in describing demographically-structured populations and in identifying points in the host developmental timeline susceptible to parasitic attack. We apply this approach to investigate the effect of parasitism by the Asian parasitoid Aphelinus certus on its host, the soybean aphid (Aphis glycines). We present a matrix population model with coupled equations that are analogous to a Nicholson-Bailey model. To parameterize the model, we conducted several bioassays outlining host and parasitoid life history and supplemented these studies with data obtained from the literature. Analysis of the model suggests that, at a parasitism rate of 0.21 d-1, A. certus is capable of maintaining aphid densities below economically damaging levels in 31.0% of simulations. Several parameters-parasitoid lifespan, colonization timeline, host developmental stage, and mean daily temperature-were also shown to markedly influence the overall dynamics of the system. These results suggest that A. certus might provide a valuable service in agroecosystems by suppressing soybean aphid populations at relatively low levels of parasitism. Our results also support the use of A. certus within a dynamic action threshold framework in order to maximize the value of biological control in pest management programs.

Using Transfer Function Analysis to develop biologically and economically efficient restoration strategies

Rare species across taxonomic groups and biomes commonly suffer from multiple threats and require intensive restoration, including population reintroduction and threat control. Following reintroduction, it is necessary to identify what level of threat control is needed for species to persist over time. Population reintroduction and threat control are time intensive and costly. Thus, it is pragmatic to develop economically efficient restoration strategies. We combined transfer function analysis and economic cost analysis to evaluate the effects of biologically meaningful increases in demographic processes on the persistence of a reintroduced population of a Hawaii endemic long-lived shrub, Delissea waianaeensis. We show that an increase in fertility by 0.419 following the suppression of non-native rodents or an increase by 0.098 in seedling growth following the suppression of invasive molluscs would stabilize the population (i.e., λ = 1). Though a greater increase in fertility than seedling growth was needed for the reintroduced population to persist over time, increasing fertility by suppressing rodents was the most cost effective restoration strategy. Our study emphasizes the importance of considering the effects of large increases in plant vital rates in population projections and incorporating the economic cost of management actions in demographic models when developing restoration plans for endangered species.

The effects of leaf litter nutrient pulses on Alliaria petiolata performance

Nutrient pulses can facilitate species establishment and spread in new habitats, particularly when one species more effectively uses that nutrient pulse. Biological differences in nutrient acquisition between native and exotic species may facilitate invasions into a variety of habitats including deciduous forest understories. Alliaria petiolata (Bieb.) Cavara & Grande is an important invader of deciduous forest understories throughout much of North America. These understory communities contain many species which perform the majority of their growth and reproduction before canopy closure in spring. Because A. petiolata is a wintergreen biennial that can be active during autumn and winter, it may utilize nutrients released from decaying leaf litter before its competitors. To investigate this we manipulated the timing of leaf litter addition (fall or spring) and experimentally simulated the nutrient pulse from decaying leaves using artificial fertilizer. To determine whether A. petiolata affected the abundance of understory competitors, we also removed A. petiolata from one treatment. A. petiolata that received early nutrients exhibited greater growth. Treatments receiving fall leaf litter or artificial nutrients had greater A. petiolata adult biomass than plots receiving spring nutrient additions (leaf litter or artificial nutrients). However, fall leaf litter addition had no effect on the richness of competitor species. Thus, wintergreen phenology may contribute to the spread of A. petiolata through deciduous forest understories, but may not explain community-level impacts of A. petiolata in deciduous forests.

Mutualism-disrupting allelopathic invader drives carbon stress and vital rate decline in a forest perennial herb

Invasive plants can negatively affect belowground processes and alter soil microbial communities. For native plants that depend on soil resources from root fungal symbionts (RFS), invasion could compromise their resource status and subsequent ability to manufacture and store carbohydrates. Herbaceous perennials that depend on RFS-derived resources dominate eastern North American forest understories. Therefore, we predict that forest invasion by Alliaria petiolata, an allelopathic species that produces chemicals that are toxic to RFS, will diminish plant carbon storage and fitness. Over a single growing season, the loss of RFS could reduce a plant's photosynthetic physiology and carbon storage. If maintained over multiple growing seasons, this could create a condition of carbon stress and declines in plant vital rates. Here we characterize the signals of carbon stress over a short timeframe and explore the long-term consequence of Alliaria invasion using Maianthemum racemosum, an RFS-dependent forest understory perennial. First, in a greenhouse experiment, we treated the soil of potted Maianthemum with fresh leaf tissue from either Alliaria or Hesperis matronalis (control) for a single growing season. Alliaria-treated plants exhibit significant overall reductions in total non-structural carbohydrates and have 17 % less storage carbohydrates relative to controls. Second, we monitored Maianthemum vital rates in paired experimental plots where we either removed emerging Alliaria seedlings each spring or left Alliaria at ambient levels for 7 years. Where Alliaria is removed, Maianthemum size and vital rates improve significantly: flowering probability increases, while the probability of plants regressing to non-flowering stages or entering prolonged dormancy are reduced. Together, our results are consistent with the hypothesis that disruption of a ubiquitous mutualism following species invasion creates symptoms of carbon stress for species dependent on RFS. Disruption of plant-fungal mutualisms may generally contribute to the common, large-scale declines in forest biodiversity observed in the wake of allelopathic invaders.

A seasonal, density-dependent model for the management of an invasive weed

The population effects of harvest depend on complex interactions between density dependence, seasonality, stage structure, and management timing. Here we present a periodic nonlinear matrix population model that incorporates seasonal density dependence with stage-selective and seasonally selective harvest. To this model, we apply newly developed perturbation analyses to determine how population densities respond to changes in harvest and demographic parameters. We use the model to examine the effects of popular control strategies and demographic perturbations on the invasive weed garlic mustard (Alliaria petiolata). We find that seasonality is a major factor in harvest outcomes, because population dynamics may depend significantly on both the season of management and the season of observation. Strategies that reduce densities in one season can drive increases in another, with strategies giving positive sensitivities of density in the target seasons leading to compensatory effects that invasive species managers should avoid. Conversely, demographic parameters to which density is very elastic (e.g., seeding survival, second-year rosette spring survival, and the flowering to fruiting adult transition for maximum summer densities) may indicate promising management targets.

Elucidating the population dynamics of Japanese knotweed using integral projection models

Plant demographic studies coupled with population modeling are crucial components of invasive plant management because they inform managers when in a plant’s life cycle it is most susceptible to control efforts. Providing land managers with appropriate data can be especially challenging when there is limited data on potentially important transitions that occur belowground. For 2 years, we monitored 4 clonal Japanese knotweed (Polygonumcuspidatum) infestations for emergence, survival, shoot height until leaf senescence, dry shoot biomass after senescence, and rhizome connections for 424 shoots. We developed an integral projection model using both final autumn shoot height and shoot biomass as predictors of survival between years, growth from year to year, and number of rhizomes produced by a shoot (fecundity). Numbers of new shoots within an infestation (population growth rate λ) were projected to increase 13-233% in a year, with the greatest increase at the most frequently disturbed site. Elasticity analysis revealed population growth at 3 of the 4 sites was primarily due to ramet survival between years and to year-to-year growth in shoot height and shoot biomass. Population growth at the fourth site, the most disturbed, was due to the large production of new rhizomes and associated shoots. In contrast to previous studies, our excavation revealed that most of the shoots were not interconnected, suggesting rhizome production may be limited by the size or age of the plants, resource availability, disturbance frequency, or other factors. Future integration of plant population models with more data on belowground growth structures will clarify the critical stages in Japanese knotweed life cycle and support land managers in their management decisions.

Seed Extracts Impede Germination in Brassica rapa Plants

Allelopathy is an important mechanism of interference competition in some plants, but little is known about whether compounds exuded from seeds influence the germination of neighbors. We treated seeds of multiple lines of Brassica rapa (field mustard) with aqueous extracts of Brassica rapa Fast Plant seeds and extracts of seeds of the invasive, allelopathic plant Alliaria petiolata (garlic mustard). Germination patterns differed significantly among populations, with Fast Plants germinating earliest. As predicted, Alliaria seed extracts significantly delayed germination compared to controls. Surprisingly, Fast Plant extracts reduced germination probability and delayed germination more than both controls and Alliaria extract-treated seeds. These results suggest that compounds in the seeds of both species appear to be allelopathic, and indicate a potentially important and unrecognized role for allelopathy in intra- and inter- specific competition at the seed stage.

The importance of space, time, and stochasticity to the demography and management of Alliaria petiolata

As population modeling is increasingly called upon to guide policy and management, it is important that we understand not only the central tendencies of our study systems, but the consequences of their variation in space and time as well. The invasive plant Alliaria petiolata (garlic mustard) is actively managed in the United States and is the focus of a developing biological control program. Two weevils (Coleoptera: Curculionidae: Ceutorhynchus) that reduce fecundity (C. alliariae) and rosette survival plus fecundity (C. scrobicollis) are under consideration for release pending host specificity testing. We used a demographic modeling approach to (1) quantify variability in A. petiolata growth and vital rates and (2) assess the potential for single- or multiple-agent biocontrol to suppress growth of 12 A. petiolata populations in Illinois and Michigan studied over three plant generations. We used perturbation analyses and simulation models with stochastic environments to estimate stochastic growth rates (lambda(S)) and predict the probability of successful management using either a single biocontrol agent or two agent species together. Not all populations exhibited invasive dynamics. Estimates of lambda(S) ranged from 0.78 to 2.21 across sites, while annual, deterministic growth (lambda) varied up to sevenfold within individual sites. Given our knowledge of the biocontrol agents, this analysis suggests that C. scrobicollis alone may control A. petiolata at up to 63% of our study sites where lambda >1, with the combination of both agents predicted to succeed at 88% of sites. Across sites and years, the elasticity rankings were dependent on lambda. Reductions of rosette survival, fecundity, or germination of new seeds are predicted to cause the greatest reduction of lambda in growing populations. In declining populations, transitions affecting seed bank survival have the greatest effect on lambda. This contrasts with past analyses that varied parameters individually in an otherwise constant matrix, which may yield unrealistic predictions by decoupling natural parameter covariances. Overall, comparisons of stochastic and deterministic growth rates illustrate how analyses of individual populations or years could misguide management or fail to characterize complex traits such as invasiveness that emerge as attributes of populations rather than species.

A functional trait perspective on plant invasion

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Global environmental change will affect non-native plant invasions, with profound potential impacts on native plant populations, communities and ecosystems. In this context, we review plant functional traits, particularly those that drive invader abundance (invasiveness) and impacts, as well as the integration of these traits across multiple ecological scales, and as a basis for restoration and management.

SCOPE

We review the concepts and terminology surrounding functional traits and how functional traits influence processes at the individual level. We explore how phenotypic plasticity may lead to rapid evolution of novel traits facilitating invasiveness in changing environments and then 'scale up' to evaluate the relative importance of demographic traits and their links to invasion rates. We then suggest a functional trait framework for assessing per capita effects and, ultimately, impacts of invasive plants on plant communities and ecosystems. Lastly, we focus on the role of functional trait-based approaches in invasive species management and restoration in the context of rapid, global environmental change.

CONCLUSIONS

To understand how the abundance and impacts of invasive plants will respond to rapid environmental changes it is essential to link trait-based responses of invaders to changes in community and ecosystem properties. To do so requires a comprehensive effort that considers dynamic environmental controls and a targeted approach to understand key functional traits driving both invader abundance and impacts. If we are to predict future invasions, manage those at hand and use restoration technology to mitigate invasive species impacts, future research must focus on functional traits that promote invasiveness and invader impacts under changing conditions, and integrate major factors driving invasions from individual to ecosystem levels.

Cryptic herbivores mediate the strength and form of ungulate impacts on a long-lived savanna tree

Plant populations are regulated by a diverse array of herbivores that impose demographic filters throughout their life cycle. Few studies, however, simultaneously quantify the impacts of multiple herbivore guilds on the lifetime performance or population growth rate of plants. In African savannas, large ungulates (such as elephants) are widely regarded as important drivers of woody plant population dynamics, while the potential impacts of smaller, more cryptic herbivores (such as rodents) have largely been ignored. We combined a large-scale ungulate exclusion experiment with a five-year manipulation of rodent densities to quantify the impacts of three herbivore guilds (wild ungulates, domestic cattle, and rodents) on all life stages of a widespread savanna tree. We utilized demographic modeling to reveal the overall role of each guild in regulating tree population dynamics, and to elucidate the importance of different demographic hurdles in driving population growth under contrasting consumer communities. We found that wild ungulates dramatically reduced population growth, shifting the population trajectory from increase to decline, but that the mechanisms driving these effects were strongly mediated by rodents. The impact of wild ungulates on population growth was predominantly driven by their negative effect on tree reproduction when rodents were excluded, and on adult tree survival when rodents were present. By limiting seedling survival, rodents also reduced population growth; however, this effect was strongly dampened where wild ungulates were present. We suggest that these complex interactions between disparate consumer guilds can have important consequences for the population demography of long-lived species, and that the effects of a single consumer group are often likely to vary dramatically depending on the larger community in which interactions are embedded.

Consequences of parameterization and structure of applied demographic models: a comment on Pardini et al. (2009)

Correcting the problems in the model of A. petiolata presented in Pardini et al. (2009) changes its dynamics and thus the management recommendations. As with any model, our revised model's-management predictions are conditional on model parameterization. Thus, managers should carefully consider at what spatial scales it is appropriate to infer management recommendations given the data used to build the model (e.g., is a management plan developed from a population in Missouri equally relevant to populations in Georgia, Maine, and Oregon?). In agreement with PDCK's conclusions, we found their A. petiolata study population to exhibit complex dynamics (two-point cycling) at lower efficacies of either rosette or adult management, and stable equilibria at higher management efficacies. This could have important implications for A. petiolata management techniques such as biological control if the biocontrol agents' population dynamics are dependent on A. petiolata density. While the predictions generated in our reanalysis represent an improvement over the original model, they should be tempered by the limited scope of the data used to parameterize the model. Running the model through previously published parameter ranges results in qualitatively different dynamics than those predicted in PDCK. Because of the tremendous spatiotemporal variability in A. petiolata demographic rates and the species' large geographical range, more general management recommendations will only arise from a larger set of demographic data that has greater coverage in space and time. Our revision of the model of Pardini et al. (2009) should therefore be considered as a subset of many possible models of A. petiolata population dynamics.

Loss of foundation species increases population growth of exotic forbs in sagebrush steppe

The invasion and spread of exotic plants following land disturbance threatens semiarid ecosystems. In sagebrush steppe, soil water is scarce and is partitioned between deep-rooted perennial shrubs and shallower-rooted native forbs and grasses. Disturbances commonly remove shrubs, leaving grass-dominated communities, and may allow for the exploitation of water resources by the many species of invasive, tap-rooted forbs that are increasingly successful in this habitat. We hypothesized that exotic forb populations would benefit from increased soil water made available by removal of sagebrush, a foundation species capable of deep-rooting, in semiarid shrub-steppe ecosystems. To test this hypothesis, we used periodic matrix models to examine effects of experimental manipulations of soil water on population growth of two exotic forb species, Tragopogon dubius and Lactuca serriola, in sagebrush steppe of southern Idaho, USA. We used elasticity analyses to examine which stages in the life cycle of T. dubius and L. serriola had the largest relative influence on population growth. We studied the demography of T. dubius and L. serriola in three treatments: (1) control, in which vegetation was not disturbed, (2) shrubs removed, or (3) shrubs removed but winter-spring recharge of deep-soil water blocked by rainout shelters. The short-term population growth rate (Lambda) of T. dubius in the shrub-removal treatment was more than double that of T. dubius in either sheltered or control treatments, both of which had limited soil water. All L. serriola individuals that emerged in undisturbed sagebrush plots died, whereas Lambda of L. serriola was high (Lambda > 2.5) in all shrub-removal plots, whether they had rainout shelters or not. Population growth of both forbs in all treatments was most responsive to flowering and seed production, which are life stages that should be particularly reliant on deep-soil water, as well as seedling establishment, which is important to most plant populations, especially during invasion. These data indicate the importance of native species, in this case the dominant shrub, in influencing soil resources and restricting population growth of exotic plants. These results argue that management of invasive plants should focus not only on removal of nonnatives, but also on reestablishment of important native species.

Phytophagous arthropods of invasive swallow-wort vines (Vincetoxicum spp.) in New York

Pale swallow-wort (Vincetoxicum rossicum [Kleopow] Barbar.) and black swallow-wort (V. nigrum [L.] Moench), European species of herbaceous, perennial viny milkweeds, have become increasingly invasive in various natural and managed habitats in the northeastern United States and southeastern Canada, including low- and high-light habitats. A classical biological control program is being developed, but almost no information was available on the current arthropod fauna for either species in the invaded range. I conducted quantitative surveys on pale and black swallow-wort at several locations in New York State over 3 yr to identify and compare the seasonal assemblage of phytophagous arthropods that are feeding and developing on the plants in sunny and shaded habitats. Of the approximately 84 nonpredatory species collected, 10 polyphagous, ectophagous species of native and exotic arthropods were identified, exclusively from the leaves or stems, which could develop to the adult stage and in most cases complete at least one generation on one or both species of swallow-wort. However, their densities were low throughout the season and generally did not differ between the sunny and shaded habitats. Very little to no damage was observed on the plants. Exotic swallow-worts seem to have been released from specialized natural enemies and have not accrued a damaging suite of generalist herbivores. This may be a contributing factor in the increasing invasiveness of these weeds, and biological control appears promising for these plants.

Complex population dynamics and control of the invasive biennial Alliaria petiolata (garlic mustard)

Controlling species invasions is a leading problem for applied ecology. While controlling populations expanding linearly or exponentially is straightforward, intervention in systems with complex dynamics can have complicated, and sometimes counterintuitive, consequences. Most invasive plant populations are stage-structured and density-dependent--a recipe for complex dynamics--and yet few population models have been created to explore the effects of control efforts on such species. We examined the demography of the invasive biennial plant Alliaria petiolata (garlic mustard) on the front of its spread into a natural area and found evidence of strong density dependence in vital rates of first-year rosette and second-year adult stage classes. We parameterized a density-dependent, stage-structured projection model using field-collected data. This model produces two-point cycles with alternating years in which adults vs. rosettes are more prevalent. Such population dynamics match observations in natural populations, suggesting that these complicated population dynamics may result from deterministic rules. We used this model to evaluate simulated management strategies, including herbicide treatment of rosettes and clipping or pulling of adult plants. Management of A. petiolata by inducing mortality of either rosettes or adults will not be effective at reducing population density unless the induced mortality is very high (>95% for rosettes and >85% for adults) and repeated every year. Indeed, induced mortality of rosettes can be counterproductive, causing increases in the stationary distribution of A. petiolata density. This species is typical of many invasive plants (stage-structured, short-lived, high fertility) and exhibits common forms of density dependence. Thus, the management implications of our study should apply broadly to other species with similar life histories. We suggest that management should focus on managing adults rather than rosettes, and on creating efficient control in targeted areas of the population, rather than spreading less efficient efforts widely.

Invasion, disturbance, and competition: modeling the fate of coastal plant populations

Wetland habitats are besieged by biotic and abiotic disturbances such as invasive species, hurricanes, habitat fragmentation, and salinization. Predicting how these factors will alter local population dynamics and community structure is a monumental challenge. By examining ecologically similar congeners, such as Iris hexagona and I. pseudacorus (which reproduce clonally and sexually and tolerate a wide range of environmental conditions), one can identify life-history traits that are most influential to population growth and viability. We combined empirical data and stage-structured matrix models to investigate the demographic responses of native (I. hexagona) and invasive (I. pseudacorus) plant populations to hurricanes and salinity stress in freshwater and brackish wetlands. In our models I. hexagona and I. pseudacorus responded differently to salinity stress, and species coexistence was rare. In 82% of computer simulations of freshwater marsh, invasive iris populations excluded the native species within 50 years, whereas native populations excluded the invasive species in 99% of the simulations in brackish marsh. The occurrence of hurricanes allowed the species to coexist, and species persistence was determined by the length of time it took the ecosystem to recover. Rapid recovery (2 years) favored the invasive species, whereas gradual recovery (30 years) favored the native species. Little is known about the effects of hurricanes on competitive interactions between native and invasive plant species in marsh ecosystems. Our models contribute new insight into the relationship between environmental disturbance and invasion and demonstrate how influential abiotic factors such as climate change will be in determining interspecific interactions.