Native predators reduce harvest of reindeer by Sámi pastoralists

Necropsy findings, meat control pathology and causes of loss in semi-domesticated reindeer (Rangifer tarandus tarandus) in northern Norway

BACKGROUND

Reindeer herding in Norway is based on traditional Sámi pastoralism with the animals free ranging throughout the year. The animals move over large areas in varying terrain and often in challenging weather conditions. Winter crises, such as difficult grazing conditions caused by icing or large amounts of snow, are survival bottlenecks for reindeer. Calves are especially vulnerable, and many may die from starvation during winter crises. Predation and starvation are the predominant narratives to explain losses, however, carcasses are difficult to find and often little remains after scavenging and decay. Documentation of the causes of death is therefore scarce.

RESULTS

In this study, we investigated the cause of reindeer mortality in Troms and Finnmark, Nordland and Trøndelag during 2017-2019. Necropsies (n = 125) and organ investigation (n = 13) were performed to document cause of death. Body condition was evaluated using visual fat score and bone marrow fat index. A wide range of causes of death was detected. The diagnoses were categorized into the following main categories: predation (n = 40), emaciation (n = 35), infectious disease (n = 20), trauma (n = 11), feeding related disease (n = 5), neoplasia (n = 4), others (n = 6) and unknown (n = 17). Co-morbidities were seen in a number of diagnoses (n = 16). Reindeer herders are entitled to economic compensation for reindeer killed by endangered predators, but a lack of documentation leads to a gap between the amount of compensation requested and what is awarded. An important finding of our study was that predators, during winter, killed animals in good as well as poor body condition. Emaciation was also shown to be associated with infectious diseases, and not only attributable to winter grazing conditions.

CONCLUSIONS

This study highlights the importance of examining dead reindeer to gain knowledge about why they die on winter pasture. The work presented herein also shows the feasibility and value of increased documentation of reindeer losses during winter.

The decreasing availability of reindeer forage in boreal forests during snow cover periods: A Sámi pastoral landscape perspective in Sweden

This paper argues that Sámi reindeer pastoralism in Sweden is highly stressed during the critical snow cover periods due to large-scale human interventions, especially forestry, and that these have over time significantly worsened the ecological conditions for natural grazing-based responses to changing snow conditions caused by climate change. Informed by a literature review, the paper conceptualises two, overlapping ecological dynamics that shape the availability of lichen as key forage resources within a Sámi pastoral landscape perspective: the grazing dynamics of reindeer during snow cover periods as determined by climatic stochasticity, and the more predictable vegetation dynamics of lichen habitat formation, growth and sustenance based on structured forestry practices. This could help articulate an intervention ecology that pursues sustainable ecological conditions for natural grazing-based Sámi reindeer pastoralism, along with other goals. As such alternatives are likely to face political resistance, the article discusses the implications of its findings within a science-politics interface.

Seed treatments containing neonicotinoids and fungicides reduce aquatic insect richness and abundance in midwestern USA-managed floodplain wetlands

Agrochemicals including neonicotinoid insecticides and fungicides are frequently applied as seed treatments on corn, soybeans, and other common row crops. Crops grown from pesticide-treated seed are often directly planted in managed floodplain wetlands and used as a soil disturbance or food resource for wildlife. We quantified invertebrate communities within mid-latitude floodplain wetlands and assessed their response to use of pesticide-treated seeds within the floodplain. We collected and tested aqueous and sediment samples for pesticides in addition to sampling aquatic invertebrates from 22 paired wetlands. Samples were collected twice in 2016 (spring [pre-water level drawdown] and autumn [post-water level flood-up]) followed by a third sampling period (spring 2017). Meanwhile, during the summer of 2016, a portion of study wetlands were planted with either pesticide-treated or untreated corn seed. Neonicotinoid toxic equivalencies (NI-EQs) for sediment (X̅ = 0.58 μg/kg), water (X̅ = 0.02 μg/L), and sediment fungicide concentrations (X̅ = 0.10 μg/kg) were used to assess potential effects on wetland invertebrates. An overall decrease in aquatic insect richness and abundance was associated with greater NI-EQs in wetland water and sediments, as well as with sediment fungicide concentration. Post-treatment, treated wetlands displayed a decrease in insect taxa-richness and abundance before recovering by the spring of 2017. Information on timing and magnitude of aquatic insect declines will be useful when considering the use of seed treatments for wildlife management. More broadly, this study brings attention to how agriculture is used in wetland management and conservation planning.

Habitat Selection by Brown Bears with Varying Levels of Predation Rates on Ungulate Neonates

In northern Eurasia, large carnivores overlap with semi-domestic reindeer (Rangifer tarandus) and moose (Alces alces). In Scandinavia, previous studies have quantified brown bear (Ursus arctos) spring predation on neonates of reindeer (mostly in May) and moose (mostly in June). We explored if habitat selection by brown bears changed following resource pulses and whether these changes are more pronounced on those individuals characterised by higher predatory behaviour. Fifteen brown bears in northern Sweden (2010–2012) were fitted with GPS proximity collars, and 2585 female reindeers were collared with UHF transmitters. Clusters of bear positions were visited to investigate moose and reindeer predation. Bear kill rates and home ranges were calculated to examine bear movements and predatory behaviour. Bear habitat selection was modelled using resource selection functions over four periods (pre-calving, reindeer calving, moose calving, and post-calving). Coefficients of selection for areas closer to different land cover classes across periods were compared, examining the interactions between different degrees of predatory behaviour (i.e., high and low). Bear habitat selection differed throughout the periods and between low and high predatory bears. Differences among individuals’ predatory behaviour are reflected in the selection of habitat types, providing empirical evidence that different levels of specialization in foraging behaviour helps to explain individual variation in bear habitat selection.

Belowground community turnover accelerates the decomposition of standing dead wood

Standing dead trees (snags) decompose more slowly than downed dead wood and provide critical habitat for many species. The rate at which snags fall therefore influences forest carbon dynamics and biodiversity. Fall rates correlate strongly with mean annual temperature, presumably because warmer climates facilitate faster wood decomposition and hence degradation of the structural stability of standing wood. These faster decomposition rates coincide with turnover from fungal-dominated wood decomposer communities in cooler forests to co-domination by fungi and termites in warmer regions. A key question for projecting forest dynamics is therefore whether temperature effects on wood decomposition arise primarily because warmer conditions facilitate faster decomposer metabolism, or are also influenced indirectly by belowground community turnover (e.g. termites exert additional influence beyond fungal-plus-bacterial mediated decomposition). To test between these possibilities, we simulate standing dead trees with untreated, wooden posts and follow them in the field across five years at 12 sites, before measuring buried, soil-air interface and aerial post sections to quantify wood decomposition and organism activities. High termite activities at the warmer sites are associated with rates of post fall that are 3-times higher than at the cooler sites. Termites primarily consume buried wood, with decomposition rates greatest where termite activities are highest. However, where higher microbial and termite activities co-occur, they appear to first compensate for one another and then slow decomposition rates at their highest activities, suggestive of interference competition. If the range of microbial- and termite co-domination of wood decomposer communities expands under climate warming, our data suggest that expansion will accelerate snag fall with consequent effects on forest carbon cycling and biodiversity in forests previously dominated by microbial decomposers.

Sample identification and pedigree reconstruction in Wolverine (Gulo gulo) using SNP genotyping of non-invasive samples

For conservation genetic studies using non-invasively collected samples, genome-wide data may be hard to acquire. Until now, such studies have instead mostly relied on analyses of traditional genetic markers such as microsatellites (SSRs). Recently, high throughput genotyping of single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) has become available, expanding the use of genomic methods to include non-model species of conservation concern. We have developed a 96-marker SNP array for use in applied conservation monitoring of the Scandinavian wolverine (Gulo gulo) population. By genotyping more than a thousand non-invasively collected samples, we were able to obtain precise estimates of different types of genotyping errors and sample dropout rates. The SNP panel significantly outperforms the SSR markers (and DBY intron markers for sexing) both in terms of precision in genotyping, sex assignment and individual identification, as well as in the proportion of samples successfully genotyped. Furthermore, SNP genotyping offers a simplified laboratory and analysis pipeline with fewer samples needed to be repeatedly genotyped in order to obtain reliable consensus data. In addition, we utilised a unique opportunity to successfully demonstrate the application of SNP genotype data for reconstructing pedigrees in wild populations, by validating the method with samples from wild individuals with known relatedness. By offering a simplified workflow with improved performance, we anticipate this methodology will facilitate the use of non-invasive samples to improve genetic management of many different types of populations that have previously been challenging to survey.

The Shrinking Resource Base of Pastoralism: Saami Reindeer Husbandry in a Climate of Change

The productive performance of large ungulates in extensive pastoral grazing systems is modulated simultaneously by the effects of climate change and human intervention independent of climate change. The latter includes the expansion of private, civil and military activity and infrastructure and the erosion of land rights. We used Saami reindeer husbandry in Norway as a model in which to examine trends in, and to compare the influence of, both effects on a pastoral grazing system. Downscaled projections of mean annual temperature over the principal winter pasture area (Finnmarksvidda) closely matched empirical observations across 34 years to 2018. The area, therefore, is not only warming but seems likely to continue to do so. Warming notwithstanding, 50-year (1969–2018) records of local weather (temperature, precipitation and characteristics of the snowpack) demonstrate considerable annual and decadal variation which also seems likely to continue and alternately to amplify and to counter net warming. Warming, moreover, has both positive and negative effects on ecosystem services that influence reindeer. The effects of climate change on reindeer pastoralism are evidently neither temporally nor spatially uniform, nor indeed is the role of climate change as a driver of change in pastoralism even clear. The effects of human intervention on the system, by contrast, are clear and largely negative. Gradual liberalization of grazing rights from the 18th Century has been countered by extensive loss of reindeer pasture. Access to ~50% of traditional winter pasture was lost in the 19th Century owing to the closure of international borders to the passage of herders and their reindeer. Subsequent to this the area of undisturbed pasture within Norway has decreased by 71%. Loss of pasture due to piecemeal development of infrastructure and to administrative encroachment that erodes herders' freedom of action on the land that remains to them, are the principal threats to reindeer husbandry in Norway today. These tangible effects far exceed the putative effects of current climate change on the system. The situation confronting Saami reindeer pastoralism is not unique: loss of pasture and administrative, economic, legal and social constraints bedevil extensive pastoral grazing systems across the globe.

Assessing the effectiveness of a national protected area network for carnivore conservation

Protected areas (PAs) are essential to prevent further biodiversity loss yet their effectiveness varies largely with governance and external threats. Although methodological advances have permitted assessments of PA effectiveness in mitigating deforestation, we still lack similar studies for the impact of PAs on wildlife populations. Here we use an innovative combination of matching methods and hurdle-mixed models with a large-scale and long-term dataset for Finland’s large carnivore species. We show that the national PA network does not support higher densities than non-protected habitat for 3 of the 4 species investigated. For some species, PA effects interact with region or time, i.e., wolverine densities decreased inside PAs over the study period and lynx densities increased inside eastern PAs. We support the application of matching methods in combination of additional analytical frameworks for deeper understanding of conservation impacts on wildlife populations. These methodological advances are crucial for preparing ambitious PA targets post-2020.

Assessing the effectiveness of protected areas for wildlife conservation is challenging. Here, Terraube et al. combine statistical matching and hurdle mixed-effects models to show that PAs have limited impact on population densities of large carnivores across Finland.

Direct evidence using a controlled greenhouse study for threshold effects of soil organic matter on crop growth

Soil organic matter (SOM) is a key indicator of soil fertility, and building SOM is assumed to decrease reliance on external inputs and ensure stable crop production. Recent syntheses of field data support this assumption with positive SOM-productivity relationships that asymptote at ~4% SOM. Teasing out the directionality of this relationship-the extent to which SOM increases crop growth vs. greater growth leading to higher SOM concentrations-requires controlled experimentation. To disentangle this causative pathway, we conducted a greenhouse experiment whereby we manipulated SOM concentrations from 1% to 9% and evaluated whether the SOM-productivity relationship differed for spring wheat (Triticum aestivum, L.) under nitrogen fertilization crossed with irrigation due to the expectation that SOM buffers the effects of reduced fertilization and/or irrigation. We found that higher concentrations of SOM led to greater productivity (measured as aboveground biomass) up to a threshold of 5% SOM, after which productivity declined across all treatments. These declines occurred despite the fact that indicators of soil health (water-holding capacity, microbial biomass, and bulk density) improved linearly with increasing SOM concentrations. That is, improvements in soil properties did not translate to gains in productivity at the highest SOM levels. Nitrogen fertilization led to greater productivity across all treatments, but to a greater relative extent at lower SOM levels, where we found that productivity on unfertilized soils with 4% SOM matched that of fertilized soils with 2% SOM. Differences in productivity on unfertilized soils due to irrigation emerged at higher SOM levels (>5%), highlighting SOM's role in water retention. Our results demonstrate that building SOM leads to improved growth of a globally important crop; however, our results also indicated a pronounced SOM threshold, after which crop growth declined. This underscores the need to develop optimal SOM targets for desired agricultural and environmental outcomes.

Harvest models of small populations of a large carnivore using Bayesian forecasting

Harvesting large carnivores can be a management tool for meeting politically set goals for their desired abundance. However, harvesting carnivores creates its own set of conflicts in both society and among conservation professionals, where one consequence is a need to demonstrate that management is sustainable, evidence-based, and guided by science. Furthermore, because large carnivores often also have high degrees of legal protection, harvest quotas have to be carefully justified and constantly adjusted to avoid damaging their conservation status. We developed a Bayesian state-space model to support adaptive management of Eurasian lynx harvesting in Scandinavia. The model uses data from the annual monitoring of lynx abundance and results from long-term field research on lynx biology, which has provided detailed estimates of key demographic parameters. We used the model to predict the probability that the forecasted population size will be below or above the management objectives when subjected to different harvest quotas. The model presented here informs decision makers about the policy risks of alternative harvest levels. Earlier versions of the model have been available for wildlife managers in both Sweden and Norway to guide lynx harvest quotas and the model predictions showed good agreement with observations. We combined monitoring data with data on vital rates and were able to estimate unobserved additional mortality rates, which are most probably due to poaching. In both countries, the past quota setting strategy suggests that there has been a de facto threshold strategy with increasing proportion, which means that there is no harvest below a certain population size, but above this threshold there is an increasing proportion of the population harvested as the population size increases. The annual assessment of the monitoring results, the use of forecasting models, and a threshold harvest approach to quota setting will all reduce the risk of lynx population sizes moving outside the desired goals. The approach we illustrate could be adapted to other populations of mammals worldwide.

Human dimensions of wildlife conservation in Iran: Assessment of human-wildlife conflict in restoring a wide-ranging endangered species

Human-wildlife conflicts restrict conservation efforts, especially for wide-ranging animals whose home ranges overlap with human activities. We conducted a study to understand conflicts with, and factors influencing the perceived value of an expanding population of onagers (Equus hemionus onager) in local communities in southern Iran. We asked about locals’ perceptions of six potential management strategies intended to lessen human-onager conflict. We found that human-onager conflict was restricted to 45% of respondents within the Bahram-e-Goor Protected Area, all of whom were involved in farming or herding activities. Locals within the protected area were more knowledgeable about onagers and valued onagers more than those living outside the protected area. The perceived value of onagers increased with level of education, total annual income, and perceptions of onager population trends; the perceived value of onagers decreased with the magnitude of conflict between onagers and locals. To tolerate or avoid conflicts with onagers, locals were supportive of monetary compensation and changing from a traditional lifestyle to industrialized farming (for farmers) or livestock production (for herders) with the help of government; locals did not support selling land to the government. Our study is among the first in human-wildlife conflict and local attitudes towards an endangered species and its recovery in Iran. We conclude that current levels of human-onager conflict are relatively low and perceived value of onagers is still relatively high. Therefore, wildlife authorities should consider the development of mitigation strategies with local communities before conflicts intensify.

Early Life Conditions and Immune Defense in Nestling Swainson's Hawks

The quality of perinatal conditions directly influences the physical and immunological development of nestlings, yet it is inherently variable across space and time. Long-term breeding data for a population of Swainson's hawks (Buteo swainsoni) in northern California show a continuum of territory occupancy and productivity values of individual territories and nests. Here we explore effects of variation among territories on immune system development. We hypothesize that nestlings benefitting from favorable conditions will invest in stronger immune systems, a trait with long-term benefits. We used two immunological assays, a bactericidal assay and a hemolytic-complement activity assay, with leukocyte differentials (heterophil∶lymphocyte ratio) to evaluate the constitutive innate immune system. We examined whether early brood-rearing conditions (i.e., number of siblings, hatch date, endoparasite prevalence) were associated with immunological development. Linear mixed-effects models indicated a positive relationship between extended territory occupancy history-an index of habitat quality-and nestling immune function during years with poorer reproduction. There was no association during an exceptionally good reproductive year. Hence, at least under some circumstances, nestling environments or territory characteristics may affect immune function of nestlings. Our study contributes to the growing body of evidence highlighting the importance of facultative allocation to immune traits using long-term demographic data of a top avian predator.

Cross-biome patterns in soil microbial respiration predictable from evolutionary theory on thermal adaptation

Climate warming may stimulate microbial metabolism of soil carbon, causing a carbon-cycle-climate feedback whereby carbon is redistributed from the soil to atmospheric CO₂. The magnitude of this feedback is uncertain, in part because warming-induced shifts in microbial physiology and/or community composition could retard or accelerate soil carbon losses. Here, we measure microbial respiration rates for soils collected from 22 sites in each of 3 years, at locations spanning boreal to tropical climates. Respiration was measured in the laboratory with standard temperatures, moisture and excess carbon substrate, to allow physiological and community effects to be detected independent of the influence of these abiotic controls. Patterns in respiration for soils collected across the climate gradient are consistent with evolutionary theory on physiological responses that compensate for positive effects of temperature on metabolism. Respiration rates per unit microbial biomass were as much as 2.6 times higher for soils sampled from sites with a mean annual temperature of -2.0 versus 21.7 °C. Subsequent 100-d incubations suggested differences in the plasticity of the thermal response among microbial communities, with communities sampled from sites with higher mean annual temperature having a more plastic response. Our findings are consistent with adaptive metabolic responses to contrasting thermal regimes that are also observed in plants and animals. These results may help build confidence in soil-carbon-climate feedback projections by improving understanding of microbial processes represented in biogeochemical models.

Soil microbial respiration adapts to ambient temperature in global drylands

Heterotrophic soil microbial respiration – one of the main processes of carbon loss from soils to the atmosphere – is sensitive to temperature in the short-term. However, how this sensitivity is affected by long-term thermal regimes is uncertain. There is an expectation that soil microbial respiration rates adapt to the ambient thermal regime, but whether this adaptation magnifies or reduces respiration sensitivities to temperature fluctuations remains unresolved. This gap in our understanding is particularly pronounced for drylands as most studies conducted so far have focused on mesic systems. Here, we conducted an incubation study using soils from 110 global drylands encompassing a wide gradient in mean annual temperature. We tested how mean annual temperature affects soil respiration rates at three assay temperatures while controlling for substrate depletion and microbial biomass. Estimated soil respiration rates at the mean microbial biomass were lower in sites with higher mean annual temperatures across the three assayed temperatures. The patterns observed are consistent with expected evolutionary trade-offs in the structure and function of enzymes under different thermal regimes. Our results therefore suggest that soil microbial respiration adapts to the ambient thermal regime in global drylands.

The Holistic Effects of Climate Change on the Culture, Well-Being, and Health of the Saami, the Only Indigenous People in the European Union

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

(1) To develop a framework for understanding the holistic effects of climate change on the Saami people; (2) to summarize the scientific evidence about the primary, secondary, and tertiary effects of climate change on Saami culture and Sápmi region; and (3) to identify gaps in the knowledge of the effects of climate change on health and well-being of the Saami.

RECENT FINDINGS

The Saami health is on average similar, or slightly better compared to the health of other populations in the same area. Warming climate has already influenced Saami reindeer culture. Mental health and suicide risk partly linked to changing physical and social environments are major concerns. The lifestyle, diet, and morbidity of the Saami are changing to resemble the majority populations posing threats for the health of the Saami and making them more vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate change. Climate change is a threat for the cultural way of life of Saami. Possibilities for Saami to adapt to climate change are limited.

Spring fasting behavior in a marine apex predator provides an index of ecosystem productivity

The effects of declining Arctic sea ice on local ecosystem productivity are not well understood but have been shown to vary inter-specifically, spatially, and temporally. Because marine mammals occupy upper trophic levels in Arctic food webs, they may be useful indicators for understanding variation in ecosystem productivity. Polar bears (Ursus maritimus) are apex predators that primarily consume benthic and pelagic-feeding ice-associated seals. As such, their productivity integrates sea ice conditions and the ecosystem supporting them. Declining sea ice availability has been linked to negative population effects for polar bears but does not fully explain observed population changes. We examined relationships between spring foraging success of polar bears and sea ice conditions, prey productivity, and general patterns of ecosystem productivity in the Beaufort and Chukchi Seas (CSs). Fasting status (≥7 days) was estimated using serum urea and creatinine levels of 1,448 samples collected from 1,177 adult and subadult bears across three subpopulations. Fasting increased in the Beaufort Sea between 1983-1999 and 2000-2016 and was related to an index of ringed seal body condition. This change was concurrent with declines in body condition of polar bears and observed changes in the diet, condition and/or reproduction of four other vertebrate consumers within the food chain. In contrast, fasting declined in CS polar bears between periods and was less common than in the two Beaufort Sea subpopulations consistent with studies demonstrating higher primary productivity and maintenance or improved body condition in polar bears, ringed seals, and bearded seals despite recent sea ice loss in this region. Consistency between regional and temporal variation in spring polar bear fasting and food web productivity suggests that polar bears may be a useful indicator species. Furthermore, our results suggest that spatial and temporal ecological variation is important in affecting upper trophic-level productivity in these marine ecosystems.

Understanding the demographic drivers of realized population growth rates

Identifying the demographic parameters (e.g., reproduction, survival, dispersal) that most influence population dynamics can increase conservation effectiveness and enhance ecological understanding. Life table response experiments (LTRE) aim to decompose the effects of change in parameters on past demographic outcomes (e.g., population growth rates). But the vast majority of LTREs and other retrospective population analyses have focused on decomposing asymptotic population growth rates, which do not account for the dynamic interplay between population structure and vital rates that shape realized population growth rates (λt=Nt+1/Nt) in time-varying environments. We provide an empirical means to overcome these shortcomings by merging recently developed "transient life-table response experiments" with integrated population models (IPMs). IPMs allow for the estimation of latent population structure and other demographic parameters that are required for transient LTRE analysis, and Bayesian versions additionally allow for complete error propagation from the estimation of demographic parameters to derivations of realized population growth rates and perturbation analyses of growth rates. By integrating available monitoring data for Lesser Scaup over 60 yr, and conducting transient LTREs on IPM estimates, we found that the contribution of juvenile female survival to long-term variation in realized population growth rates was 1.6 and 3.7 times larger than that of adult female survival and fecundity, respectively. But a persistent long-term decline in fecundity explained 92% of the decline in abundance between 1983 and 2006. In contrast, an improvement in adult female survival drove the modest recovery in Lesser Scaup abundance since 2006, indicating that the most important demographic drivers of Lesser Scaup population dynamics are temporally dynamic. In addition to resolving uncertainty about Lesser Scaup population dynamics, the merger of IPMs with transient LTREs will strengthen our understanding of demography for many species as we aim to conserve biodiversity during an era of non-stationary global change.

Integrated population models reveal local weather conditions are the key drivers of population dynamics in an aerial insectivore

Changes to weather patterns under a warming climate are complex: while warmer temperatures are expected virtually worldwide, decreased mean precipitation is expected at mid-latitudes. Migratory birds depend on broad-scale weather patterns to inform timing of movements, but may be more susceptible to local weather patterns during sedentary periods. We constructed Bayesian integrated population models (IPMs) to assess whether continental or local weather effects best explained population dynamics in an environmentally sensitive aerial insectivorous bird, the tree swallow (Tachycineta bicolor), along a transcontinental gradient from British Columbia to Saskatchewan to New York, and tested whether population dynamics were synchronous among sites. Little consistency existed among sites in the demographic rates most affecting population growth rate or in correlations among rates. Juvenile apparent survival at all sites was stable over time and greatest in New York, whereas adult apparent survival was more variable among years and sites, and greatest in British Columbia and Saskatchewan. Fledging success was greatest in Saskatchewan. Local weather conditions explained significant variation in adult survival in Saskatchewan and fledging success in New York, corroborating the hypothesis that local more than continental weather drives the population dynamics of this species and, therefore, demographic synchrony measured at three sites was limited. Nonetheless, multi-population IPMs can be a powerful tool for identifying correlated population trajectories caused by synchronous demographic rates, and can pinpoint the scale at which environmental drivers are responsible for changes. We caution against applying uniform conservation actions for populations where synchrony does not occur or is not fully understood.

Limited evidence on the effectiveness of interventions to reduce livestock predation by large carnivores

Successful coexistence between large carnivores and humans is conditional upon effective mitigation of the impact of these species on humans, such as through livestock depredation. It is therefore essential for conservation practitioners, carnivore managing authorities, or livestock owners to know the effectiveness of interventions intended to reduce livestock predation by large carnivores. We reviewed the scientific literature (1990-2016), searching for evidence of the effectiveness of interventions. We found experimental and quasi-experimental studies were rare within the field, and only 21 studies applied a case-control study design (3.7% of reviewed publications). We used a relative risk ratio to evaluate the studied interventions: changing livestock type, keeping livestock in enclosures, guarding or livestock guarding dogs, predator removal, using shock collars on carnivores, sterilizing carnivores, and using visual or auditory deterrents to frighten carnivores. Although there was a general lack of scientific evidence of the effectiveness of any of these interventions, some interventions reduced the risk of depredation whereas other interventions did not result in reduced depredation. We urge managers and stakeholders to move towards an evidence-based large carnivore management practice and researchers to conduct studies of intervention effectiveness with a randomized case-control design combined with systematic reviewing to evaluate the evidence.

Ultimate regulation of fecundity in species with precocial young: declining marginal value of offspring with increasing brood size does not explain maximal clutch size in Black Brent geese

Lack 18:125-128 (1967) proposed that clutch size in precocial species was regulated by nutrients available to females during breeding. Drent and Daan 68:225-252 (1980) proposed the individual optimization hypothesis, whereby individual state determines the optimal combination of breeding date and clutch size. Neither hypothesis accounts for variation in nutrients among females at the end of egg laying, strong right truncations in clutch size distributions, or the fact that many species with precocial young are determinate layers. One solution is that there is a maximum clutch size, above which the number of fledged young declines. We manipulated brood size in Black Brent geese to decouple brood size from maternal quality and produce broods larger than the natural maximum. We recaptured marked goslings to assess variation in prefledging survival as a function of brood size and we estimated relative prefledging survival of goslings using a Bayesian hierarchical approach. We considered effects of natural clutch size, brood size and their interaction on probability that we captured goslings at about 4 weeks of age. Prefledging survival declined with increasing brood size ([Formula: see text] = -0.53; 95% CI -0.91 to -0.16), while laid clutch size had little influence on prefledging survival ([Formula: see text] = -0.04; 95% CI -0.42 to 0.32). Despite declining per capita survival with increasing brood size, the most productive brood size was six goslings, which is greater than the typical maximum clutch size of five. Thus, reduced survival in large broods, by itself, is not the sole mechanism that limits maximum clutch size. We suggest elsewhere that incubation limitation and lower residual reproductive value for females tending larger broods may be other mechanisms limiting maximal clutch size in brent.

Diverse foraging opportunities drive the functional response of local and landscape-scale bear predation on Pacific salmon

The relationship between prey abundance and predation is often examined in single habitat units or populations, but predators may occupy landscapes with diverse habitats and foraging opportunities. The vulnerability of prey within populations may depend on habitat features that hinder predation, and increased density of conspecifics in both the immediate vicinity and the broader landscape. We evaluated the relative effects of physical habitat, local, and neighborhood prey density on predation by brown bears on sockeye salmon in a suite of 27 streams using hierarchical Bayesian functional response models. Stream depth and width were inversely related to the maximum proportion of salmon killed, but not the asymptotic limit on total number killed. Interannual variation in predation was density dependent; the number of salmon killed increased with fish density in each stream towards an asymptote. Seven streams in two geographical groups with ≥23 years of data in common were then analyzed for neighborhood density effects. In most (12 of 18) cases predation in a stream was reduced by increasing salmon abundance in neighboring streams. The uncertainty in the estimates for these neighborhood effects may have resulted from interactions between salmon abundance and habitat that influenced foraging by bears, and from bear behavior (e.g., competitive exclusion) and abundance. Taken together, the results indicated that predator-prey interactions depend on density at multiple spatial scales, and on habitat features of the surrounding landscape. Explicit consideration of this context dependency should lead to improved understanding of the ecological impacts of predation across ecosystems and taxa.

Long-Term Trends and Role of Climate in the Population Dynamics of Eurasian Reindeer

Temperature is increasing in Arctic and sub-Arctic regions at a higher rate than anywhere else in the world. The frequency and nature of precipitation events are also predicted to change in the future. These changes in climate are expected, together with increasing human pressures, to have significant impacts on Arctic and sub-Arctic species and ecosystems. Due to the key role that reindeer play in those ecosystems, it is essential to understand how climate will affect the region’s most important species. Our study assesses the role of climate on the dynamics of fourteen Eurasian reindeer (Rangifer tarandus) populations, using for the first time data on reindeer abundance collected over a 70-year period, including both wild and semi-domesticated reindeer, and covering more than half of the species’ total range. We analyzed trends in population dynamics, investigated synchrony among population growth rates, and assessed the effects of climate on population growth rates. Trends in the population dynamics were remarkably heterogeneous. Synchrony was apparent only among some populations and was not correlated with distance among population ranges. Proxies of climate variability mostly failed to explain population growth rates and synchrony. For both wild and semi-domesticated populations, local weather, biotic pressures, loss of habitat and human disturbances appear to have been more important drivers of reindeer population dynamics than climate. In semi-domesticated populations, management strategies may have masked the effects of climate. Conservation efforts should aim to mitigate human disturbances, which could exacerbate the potentially negative effects of climate change on reindeer populations in the future. Special protection and support should be granted to those semi-domesticated populations that suffered the most because of the collapse of the Soviet Union, in order to protect the livelihood of indigenous peoples that depend on the species, and the multi-faceted role that reindeer exert in Arctic ecosystems.

The importance of accounting for larval detectability in mosquito habitat-association studies

Background

Mosquito habitat-association studies are an important basis for disease control programmes and/or vector distribution models. However, studies do not explicitly account for incomplete detection during larval presence and abundance surveys, with potential for significant biases because of environmental influences on larval behaviour and sampling efficiency.

Methods

Data were used from a dip-sampling study for Anopheles larvae in Ethiopia to evaluate the effect of six factors previously associated with larval sampling (riparian vegetation, direct sunshine, algae, water depth, pH and temperature) on larval presence and detectability. Comparisons were made between: (i) a presence-absence logistic regression where samples were pooled at the site level and detectability ignored, (ii) a success versus trials binomial model, and (iii) a presence-detection mixture model that separately estimated presence and detection, and fitted different explanatory variables to these estimations.

Results

Riparian vegetation was consistently highlighted as important, strongly suggesting it explains larval presence (−). However, depending on how larval detectability was estimated, the other factors showed large variations in their statistical importance. The presence-detection mixture model provided strong evidence that larval detectability was influenced by sunshine and water temperature (+), with weaker evidence for algae (+) and water depth (−). For larval presence, there was also some evidence that water depth (−) and pH (+) influenced site occupation. The number of dip-samples needed to determine if larvae were likely present at a site was condition dependent: with sunshine and warm water requiring only two dips, while cooler water and cloud cover required 11.

Conclusions

Environmental factors influence true larval presence and larval detectability differentially when sampling in field conditions. Researchers need to be more aware of the limitations and possible biases in different analytical approaches used to associate larval presence or abundance with local environmental conditions. These effects can be disentangled using data that are routinely collected (i.e., multiple dip samples at each site) by employing a modelling approach that separates presence from detectability.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12936-016-1308-4) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

High female mortality resulting in herd collapse in free-ranging domesticated reindeer (Rangifer tarandus tarandus) in Sweden

Reindeer herding in Sweden is a form of pastoralism practised by the indigenous Sámi population. The economy is mainly based on meat production. Herd size is generally regulated by harvest in order not to overuse grazing ranges and keep a productive herd. Nonetheless, herd growth and room for harvest is currently small in many areas. Negative herd growth and low harvest rate were observed in one of two herds in a reindeer herding community in Central Sweden. The herds (A and B) used the same ranges from April until the autumn gathering in October–December, but were separated on different ranges over winter. Analyses of capture-recapture for 723 adult female reindeer over five years (2007–2012) revealed high annual losses (7.1% and 18.4%, for herd A and B respectively). A continuing decline in the total reindeer number in herd B demonstrated an inability to maintain the herd size in spite of a very small harvest. An estimated breakpoint for when herd size cannot be kept stable confirmed that the observed female mortality rate in herd B represented a state of herd collapse. Lower calving success in herd B compared to A indicated differences in winter foraging conditions. However, we found only minor differences in animal body condition between the herds in autumn. We found no evidence that a lower autumn body mass generally increased the risk for a female of dying from one autumn to the next. We conclude that the prime driver of the on-going collapse of herd B is not high animal density or poor body condition. Accidents or disease seem unlikely as major causes of mortality. Predation, primarily by lynx and wolverine, appears to be the most plausible reason for the high female mortality and state of collapse in the studied reindeer herding community.

The role of predation and food limitation on claims for compensation, reindeer demography and population dynamics

A major challenge in biodiversity conservation is to facilitate viable populations of large apex predators in ecosystems where they were recently driven to ecological extinction due to resource conflict with humans.Monetary compensation for losses of livestock due to predation is currently a key instrument to encourage human-carnivore coexistence. However, a lack of quantitative estimates of livestock losses due to predation leads to disagreement over the practice of compensation payments. This disagreement sustains the human-carnivore conflict.The level of depredation on year-round, free-ranging, semi-domestic reindeer by large carnivores in Fennoscandia has been widely debated over several decades. In Norway, the reindeer herders claim that lynx and wolverine cause losses of tens of thousands of animals annually and cause negative population growth in herds. Conversely, previous research has suggested that monetary predator compensation can result in positive population growth in the husbandry, with cascading negative effects of high grazer densities on the biodiversity in tundra ecosystems.We utilized a long-term, large-scale data set to estimate the relative importance of lynx and wolverine predation and density-dependent and climatic food limitation on claims for losses, recruitment and population growth rates in Norwegian reindeer husbandry.Claims of losses increased with increasing predator densities, but with no detectable effect on population growth rates. Density-dependent and climatic effects on claims of losses, recruitment and population growth rates were much stronger than the effects of variation in lynx and wolverine densities.Synthesis and applications. Our analysis provides a quantitative basis for predator compensation and estimation of the costs of reintroducing lynx and wolverine in areas with free-ranging semi-domestic reindeer. We outline a potential path for conflict management which involves adaptive monitoring programmes, open access to data, herder involvement and development of management strategy evaluation (MSE) models to disentangle complex responses including multiple stakeholders and individual harvester decisions.

The importance of observation versus process error in analyses of global ungulate populations

Population abundance data vary widely in quality and are rarely accurate. The two main components of error in such data are observation and process error. We used Bayesian state space models to estimate the observation and process error in time-series of 55 globally distributed populations of two species, Cervus elaphus (elk/red deer) and Rangifer tarandus (caribou/reindeer). We examined variation among populations and species in the magnitude of estimates of error components and density dependence using generalized linear models. Process error exceeded observation error in 75% of all populations, and on average, both components of error were greater in Rangifer than in Cervus populations. Observation error differed significantly across the different observation methods, and predation and time-series length differentially affected the error components. Comparing the Bayesian model results to traditional models that do not separate error components revealed the potential for misleading inferences about sources of variation in population dynamics.

Allometric convergence in savanna trees and implications for the use of plant scaling models in variable ecosystems

Theoretical models of allometric scaling provide frameworks for understanding and predicting how and why the morphology and function of organisms vary with scale. It remains unclear, however, if the predictions of ‘universal’ scaling models for vascular plants hold across diverse species in variable environments. Phenomena such as competition and disturbance may drive allometric scaling relationships away from theoretical predictions based on an optimized tree. Here, we use a hierarchical Bayesian approach to calculate tree-specific, species-specific, and ‘global’ (i.e. interspecific) scaling exponents for several allometric relationships using tree- and branch-level data harvested from three savanna sites across a rainfall gradient in Mali, West Africa. We use these exponents to provide a rigorous test of three plant scaling models (Metabolic Scaling Theory (MST), Geometric Similarity, and Stress Similarity) in savanna systems. For the allometric relationships we evaluated (diameter vs. length, aboveground mass, stem mass, and leaf mass) the empirically calculated exponents broadly overlapped among species from diverse environments, except for the scaling exponents for length, which increased with tree cover and density. When we compare empirical scaling exponents to the theoretical predictions from the three models we find MST predictions are most consistent with our observed allometries. In those situations where observations are inconsistent with MST we find that departure from theory corresponds with expected tradeoffs related to disturbance and competitive interactions. We hypothesize savanna trees have greater length-scaling exponents than predicted by MST due to an evolutionary tradeoff between fire escape and optimization of mechanical stability and internal resource transport. Future research on the drivers of systematic allometric variation could reconcile the differences between observed scaling relationships in variable ecosystems and those predicted by ideal models such as MST.