Impacts of Birds vs. Invertebrate Predators on Rocky Intertidal Community Structure

Most studies of species interactions in rocky intertidal communities focus on invertebrate predators and herbivores interacting with sessile invertebrates and macrophytes. However, shorebirds are usually a conspicuous presence on rocky shores and eat sessile and mobile invertebrate prey, often including invertebrate predators and herbivores. Inspired by classic studies of strong bird predation effects in rocky intertidal habitats in Washington state (USA) and South Africa, I tested the effects of bird and invertebrate (sea stars, whelks) predation at multiple sites, wave exposures, and zones on the central Oregon coast from spring 1996 to fall 1997. To gain insight into the effects of birds relative to the effects of invertebrate predators, I used a crossed design, with bird exclusions (present and absent) and invertebrate predator removal (present and reduced). Compared to Washington state and South Africa, birds had little effect on the abundance of sessile or mobile prey in wave-exposed mid, wave-exposed low, and wave-protected mid zones at 2-4 sites. I suggest that differences between Oregon results and those in Washington and South Africa were driven by differences in bird abundance associated with whether the study site had resident colonies of shorebirds (primarily gulls, crows, and oystercatchers). That is, offshore islands often have resident breeding colonies such as in the Washington and South African studies, while sites in this study were all on the mainland where gulls were mostly transient visitors, while resident oystercatchers were usually limited to one or two pairs per site. Comparison with other marine and terrestrial experimental tests suggests that top-down effects of birds often vary in strength, and thus, future investigations should seek to understand the factors that underlie this variation.

Regime shifts in rocky intertidal communities associated with a marine heatwave and disease outbreak

Long-term, large-scale experimental studies provide critical information about how global change influences communities. When environmental changes are severe, they can trigger abrupt transitions from one community type to another leading to a regime shift. From 2014 to 2016, rocky intertidal habitats in the northeast Pacific Ocean experienced extreme temperatures during a multi-year marine heatwave (MHW) and sharp population declines of the keystone predator Pisaster ochraceus due to sea star wasting disease (SSWD). Here we measured the community structure before, during and after the MHW onset and SSWD outbreak in a 15-year succession experiment conducted in a rocky intertidal meta-ecosystem spanning 13 sites on four capes in Oregon and northern California, United States. Kelp abundance declined during the MHW due to extreme temperatures, while gooseneck barnacle and mussel abundances increased due to reduced predation pressure after the loss of Pisaster from SSWD. Using several methods, we detected regime shifts from substrate- or algae-dominated to invertebrate-dominated alternative states at two capes. After water temperatures cooled and Pisaster population densities recovered, community structure differed from pre-disturbance conditions, suggesting low resilience. Consequently, thermal stress and predator loss can result in regime shifts that fundamentally alter community structure even after restoration of baseline conditions.

Resistance of rocky intertidal communities to oceanic climate fluctuations

A powerful way to predict how ecological communities will respond to future climate change is to test how they have responded to the climate of the past. We used climate oscillations including the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), North Pacific Gyre Oscillation, and El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and variation in upwelling, air temperature, and sea temperatures to test the sensitivity of nearshore rocky intertidal communities to climate variability. Prior research shows that multiple ecological processes of key taxa (growth, recruitment, and physiology) were sensitive to environmental variation during this time frame. We also investigated the effect of the concurrent sea star wasting disease outbreak in 2013-2014. We surveyed nearly 150 taxa from 11 rocky intertidal sites in Oregon and northern California annually for up to 14-years (2006-2020) to test if community structure (i.e., the abundance of functional groups) and diversity were sensitive to past environmental variation. We found little to no evidence that these communities were sensitive to annual variation in any of the environmental measures, and that each metric was associated with < 8.6% of yearly variation in community structure. Only the years elapsed since the outbreak of sea star wasting disease had a substantial effect on community structure, but in the mid-zone only where spatially dominant mussels are a main prey of the keystone predator sea star, Pisaster ochraceus. We conclude that the established sensitivity of multiple ecological processes to annual fluctuations in climate has not yet scaled up to influence community structure. Hence, the rocky intertidal system along this coastline appears resistant to the range of oceanic climate fluctuations that occurred during the study. However, given ongoing intensification of climate change and increasing frequencies of extreme events, future responses to climate change seem likely.

Biotic filtering by species' interactions constrains food-web variability across spatial and abiotic gradients

Despite intensive research on species dissimilarity patterns across communities (i.e. β-diversity), we still know little about their implications for variation in food-web structures. Our analyses of 50 lake and 48 forest soil communities show that, while species dissimilarity depends on environmental and spatial gradients, these effects are only weakly propagated to the networks. Moreover, our results show that species and food-web dissimilarities are consistently correlated, but that much of the variation in food-web structure across spatial, environmental, and species gradients remains unexplained. Novel food-web assembly models demonstrate the importance of biotic filtering during community assembly by (1) the availability of resources and (2) limiting similarity in species' interactions to avoid strong niche overlap and thus competitive exclusion. This reveals a strong signature of biotic filtering processes during local community assembly, which constrains the variability in structural food-web patterns across local communities despite substantial turnover in species composition.

Increasing instability of a rocky intertidal meta-ecosystem

Climate change threatens to destabilize ecological communities, potentially moving them from persistently occupied "basins of attraction" to different states. Increasing variation in key ecological processes can signal impending state shifts in ecosystems. In a rocky intertidal meta-ecosystem consisting of three distinct regions spread across 260 km of the Oregon coast, we show that annually cleared sites are characterized by communities that exhibit signs of increasing destabilization (loss of resilience) over the past decade despite persistent community states. In all cases, recovery rates slowed and became more variable over time. The conditions underlying these shifts appear to be external to the system, with thermal disruptions (e.g., marine heat waves, El Niño-Southern Oscillation) and shifts in ocean currents (e.g., upwelling) being the likely proximate drivers. Although this iconic ecosystem has long appeared resistant to stress, the evidence suggests that subtle destabilization has occurred over at least the last decade.

Quantifying the dynamics of rocky intertidal sessile communities along the Pacific coast of Japan: implications for ecological resilience

Long-term patterns in trajectories of natural communities provide insights into ecological resilience, but their assessment requires long-term census data. We analyzed 16-year census data for intertidal communities from 30 rocky shores along Japan’s Pacific coast to assign community change to four possible trajectories (stable, reversible, abrupt, or linear) representing different aspects of ecological resilience, and to estimate multiple metrics of temporal invariability (species richness, species composition, and community abundance). We examined (1) how the prevalence of the four trajectories differs among regions, (2) how the features (model coefficients) of each trajectory vary among regions, and (3) how the temporal invariabilities differ among trajectories and regions. We found that the stable trajectory was the most common. Its features differed among regions, with a faster recovery to steady-state equilibrium in low-latitude regions. Furthermore, trajectories and temporal invariabilities both varied among regions, seemingly in association with the strength of ocean current fluctuations. Thus, the relationship between community temporal invariability and trajectory may be weak or absent, at least at the regional scale.

Biogeography of ocean acidification: Differential field performance of transplanted mussels to upwelling-driven variation in carbonate chemistry

Ocean acidification (OA) represents a serious challenge to marine ecosystems. Laboratory studies addressing OA indicate broadly negative effects for marine organisms, particularly those relying on calcification processes. Growing evidence also suggests OA combined with other environmental stressors may be even more deleterious. Scaling these laboratory studies to ecological performance in the field, where environmental heterogeneity may mediate responses, is a critical next step toward understanding OA impacts on natural communities. We leveraged an upwelling-driven pH mosaic along the California Current System to deconstruct the relative influences of pH, ocean temperature, and food availability on seasonal growth, condition and shell thickness of the ecologically dominant intertidal mussel Mytilus californianus. In 2011 and 2012, ecological performance of adult mussels from local and commonly sourced populations was measured at 8 rocky intertidal sites between central Oregon and southern California. Sites coincided with a large-scale network of intertidal pH sensors, allowing comparisons among pH and other environmental stressors. Adult California mussel growth and size varied latitudinally among sites and inter-annually, and mean shell thickness index and shell weight growth were reduced with low pH. Surprisingly, shell length growth and the ratio of tissue to shell weight were enhanced, not diminished as expected, by low pH. In contrast, and as expected, shell weight growth and shell thickness were both diminished by low pH, consistent with the idea that OA exposure can compromise shell-dependent defenses against predators or wave forces. We also found that adult mussel shell weight growth and relative tissue mass were negatively associated with increased pH variability. Including local pH conditions with previously documented influences of ocean temperature, food availability, aerial exposure, and origin site enhanced the explanatory power of models describing observed performance differences. Responses of local mussel populations differed from those of a common source population suggesting mussel performance partially depended on genetic or persistent phenotypic differences. In light of prior research showing deleterious effects of low pH on larval mussels, our results suggest a life history transition leading to greater resilience in at least some performance metrics to ocean acidification by adult California mussels. Our data also demonstrate “hot” (more extreme) and “cold” (less extreme) spots in both mussel responses and environmental conditions, a pattern that may enable mitigation approaches in response to future changes in climate.

Regional processes are stronger determinants of rocky intertidal community dynamics than local biotic interactions

Understanding the relative roles of species interactions and environmental factors in structuring communities has historically focused on local scales where manipulative experiments are possible. However, recent interest in predicting the effects of climate change and species invasions has spurred increasing attention to processes occurring at larger spatial and temporal scales. The "meta-ecosystem" approach is an ideal framework for integrating processes operating at multiple scales as it explicitly considers the influence of local biotic interactions and regional flows of energy, materials, and organisms on community structure. Using a comparative-experimental design, we asked (1) what is the relative importance of local biotic interactions and oceanic processes in determining rocky intertidal community structure in the low zone within the Northern California Current System, and (2) what factors are most important in regulating this structure and why? We focused on functional group interactions between macrophytes and sessile invertebrates and their consumers (grazers, predators), how these varied across spatial scales, and with ocean-driven conditions (upwelling, temperature) and ecological subsidies (nutrients, phytoplankton, sessile invertebrate recruits). Experiments were conducted at 13 sites divided across four capes in Oregon and northern California. Results showed that biotic interactions were variable in space and time but overall, sessile invertebrates had no effect on macrophytes while macrophytes had weakly negative effects on sessile invertebrates. Consumers, particularly predators, also had weakly negative effects on both functional groups. Overall, we found that 40-49% of the variance in community structure at the local scale was explained by external factors (e.g., spatial scale, time, upwelling, temperature, ecological subsidies) vs. 19-39% explained by functional group interactions. When individual functional group interaction strengths were used, only 2-3% of the variation was explained by any one functional group while 28-54% of the variation was explained by external factors. We conclude that community structure in the low intertidal zone is driven primarily by external factors at the regional scale with local biotic interactions playing a secondary role.

Scale-specific drivers of kelp forest communities

Identifying spatial scales of variation in natural communities and the processes driving them is critical for obtaining a predictive understanding of biodiversity. In this study, we focused on diverse communities inhabiting productive kelp forests on shallow subtidal rocky reefs in southern California, USA. We combined long-term community surveys from 86 sites with detailed environmental data to determine what structures assemblages of fishes, invertebrates and algae at multiple spatial scales. We identified the spatial scales of variation in species composition using a hierarchical analysis based on eigenfunctions, and assessed how sea surface temperature (SST), water column chlorophyll, giant kelp biomass, wave exposure and potential propagule delivery strength contributed to community variation at each scale. Spatial effects occurring at multiple scales explained 60% of the variation in fish assemblages and 52% of the variation in the assemblages of invertebrates and algae. Most variation occurred over broad spatial scales (> 200 km) consistent with spatial heterogeneity in SST and potential propagule delivery strength, while the latter also explained community variation at medium scales (65-200 km). Small scale (1-65 km) community variation was substantial but not linked to any of the measured drivers. Conclusions were consistent for both reef fishes and benthic invertebrates and algae, despite sharp differences in their adult mobility. Our results demonstrate the scale dependence of environmental drivers on kelp forest communities, showing that most species were strongly sorted along oceanographic conditions over various spatial scales. Such spatial effects must be integrated into models assessing the response of marine ecosystems to climate change.

Incorporating Context Dependency of Species Interactions in Species Distribution Models

SYNOPSIS

Species distribution models typically use correlative approaches that characterize the species-environment relationship using occurrence or abundance data for a single species. However, species distributions are determined by both abiotic conditions and biotic interactions with other species in the community. Therefore, climate change is expected to impact species through direct effects on their physiology and indirect effects propagated through their resources, predators, competitors, or mutualists. Furthermore, the sign and strength of species interactions can change according to abiotic conditions, resulting in context-dependent species interactions that may change across space or with climate change. Here, we incorporated the context dependency of species interactions into a dynamic species distribution model. We developed a multi-species model that uses a time-series of observational survey data to evaluate how abiotic conditions and species interactions affect the dynamics of three rocky intertidal species. The model further distinguishes between the direct effects of abiotic conditions on abundance and the indirect effects propagated through interactions with other species. We apply the model to keystone predation by the sea star Pisaster ochraceus on the mussel Mytilus californianus and the barnacle Balanus glandula in the rocky intertidal zone of the Pacific coast, USA. Our method indicated that biotic interactions between P. ochraceus and B. glandula affected B. glandula dynamics across >1000 km of coastline. Consistent with patterns from keystone predation, the growth rate of B. glandula varied according to the abundance of P. ochraceus in the previous year. The data and the model did not indicate that the strength of keystone predation by P. ochraceus varied with a mean annual upwelling index. Balanus glandula cover increased following years with high phytoplankton abundance measured as mean annual chlorophyll-a. M. californianus exhibited the same pattern to a lesser degree, although this pattern was not significant. This work bridges the disciplines of biogeography and community ecology to develop tools to better understand the direct and indirect effects of abiotic conditions on ecological communities.

Unimodal relationship between small-scale barnacle recruitment and the density of pre-existing barnacle adults

Recruitment is a key demographic process for population persistence. This paper focuses on barnacle (Semibalanus balanoides) recruitment. In rocky intertidal habitats from the Gulf of St. Lawrence coast of Nova Scotia (Canada), ice scour is common during the winter. At the onset of intertidal barnacle recruitment in early May (after sea ice has fully melted), mostly only adult barnacles and bare substrate are visible at high elevations in wave-exposed habitats. We conducted a multiannual study to investigate if small-scale barnacle recruitment could be predicted from the density of pre-existing adult barnacles. In a year that exhibited a wide adult density range (ca. 0–130 individuals dm⁻²), the relationship between adult density and recruit density (scaled to the available area for recruitment, which excluded adult barnacles) was unimodal. In years that exhibited a lower adult density range (ca. 0–40/50 individuals dm⁻²), the relationship between adult and recruit density was positive and resembled the lower half of the unimodal relationship. Overall, adult barnacle density was able to explain 26–40% of the observed variation in recruit density. The unimodal adult–recruit relationship is consistent with previously documented intraspecific interactions. Between low and intermediate adult densities, the positive nature of the relationship relates to the previously documented fact that settlement-seeking larvae are chemically and visually attracted to adults, which might be important for local population persistence. Between intermediate and high adult densities, where population persistence may be less compromised and the abundant adults may limit recruit growth and survival, the negative nature of the relationship suggests that adult barnacles at increasingly high densities stimulate larvae to settle elsewhere. The unimodal pattern may be especially common on shores with moderate rates of larval supply to the shore, because high rates of larval supply may swamp the coast with settlers, decoupling recruit density from local adult abundance.

Animal pee in the sea: consumer-mediated nutrient dynamics in the world's changing oceans

Humans have drastically altered the abundance of animals in marine ecosystems via exploitation. Reduced abundance can destabilize food webs, leading to cascading indirect effects that dramatically reorganize community structure and shift ecosystem function. However, the additional implications of these top-down changes for biogeochemical cycles via consumer-mediated nutrient dynamics (CND) are often overlooked in marine systems, particularly in coastal areas. Here, we review research that underscores the importance of this bottom-up control at local, regional, and global scales in coastal marine ecosystems, and the potential implications of anthropogenic change to fundamentally alter these processes. We focus attention on the two primary ways consumers affect nutrient dynamics, with emphasis on implications for the nutrient capacity of ecosystems: (1) the storage and retention of nutrients in biomass, and (2) the supply of nutrients via excretion and egestion. Nutrient storage in consumer biomass may be especially important in many marine ecosystems because consumers, as opposed to producers, often dominate organismal biomass. As for nutrient supply, we emphasize how consumers enhance primary production through both press and pulse dynamics. Looking forward, we explore the importance of CDN for improving theory (e.g., ecological stoichiometry, metabolic theory, and biodiversity-ecosystem function relationships), all in the context of global environmental change. Increasing research focus on CND will likely transform our perspectives on how consumers affect the functioning of marine ecosystems.

Context-dependent functional dispersion across similar ranges of trait space covered by intertidal rocky shore communities

Functional diversity is intimately linked with community assembly processes, but its large‐scale patterns of variation are often not well understood. Here, we investigated the spatiotemporal changes in multiple trait dimensions (“trait space”) along vertical intertidal environmental stress gradients and across a landscape scale. We predicted that the range of the trait space covered by local assemblages (i.e., functional richness) and the dispersion in trait abundances (i.e., functional dispersion) should increase from high‐ to low‐intertidal elevations, due to the decreasing influence of environmental filtering. The abundance of macrobenthic algae and invertebrates was estimated at four rocky shores spanning ca. 200 km of the coast over a 36‐month period. Functional richness and dispersion were contrasted against matrix‐swap models to remove any confounding effect of species richness on functional diversity. Random‐slope models showed that functional richness and dispersion significantly increased from high‐ to low‐intertidal heights, demonstrating that under harsh environmental conditions, the assemblages comprised similar abundances of functionally similar species (i.e., trait convergence), while that under milder conditions, the assemblages encompassed differing abundances of functionally dissimilar species (i.e., trait divergence). According to the Akaike information criteria, the relationship between local environmental stress and functional richness was persistent across sites and sampling times, while functional dispersion varied significantly. Environmental filtering therefore has persistent effects on the range of trait space covered by these assemblages, but context‐dependent effects on the abundances of trait combinations within such range. Our results further suggest that natural and/or anthropogenic factors might have significant effects on the relative abundance of functional traits, despite that no trait addition or extinction is detected.

A 12-year record of intertidal barnacle recruitment in Atlantic Canada (2005-2016): relationships with sea surface temperature and phytoplankton abundance

On the Gulf of St. Lawrence coast of Nova Scotia (Canada), recruitment of the barnacle Semibalanus balanoides occurs in May and June. Every year in June between 2005 and 2016, we recorded recruit density for this barnacle at the same wave-exposed rocky intertidal location on this coast. During these 12 years, mean recruit density was lowest in 2015 (198 recruits dm^-2) and highest in 2007 (969 recruits dm^-2). The highest recruit density observed in a single quadrat was 1,457 recruits dm^-2 (in 2011) and the lowest was 34 recruits dm^-2 (in 2015). Most barnacle recruits appear during May, which suggests that most pelagic larvae (which develop over 5-6 weeks before benthic settlement) are in the water column in April. An AICc-based model selection approach identified sea surface temperature (SST) in April and the abundance of phytoplankton (food for barnacle larvae, measured as chlorophyll-a concentration -Chl-a-) in April as good explanatory variables. Together, April SST and April Chl-a explained 51% of the observed interannual variation in recruit density, with an overall positive influence. April SST was positively related to March-April air temperature (AT). April Chl-a was negatively related to the April ratio between the number of days with onshore winds (which blow from phytoplankton-limited offshore waters) and the number of days with alongshore winds (phytoplankton is more abundant on coastal waters). Therefore, this study suggests that climatic processes affecting April SST and April Chl-a indirectly influence intertidal barnacle recruitment by influencing larval performance.

Localised Effects of a Mega-Disturbance: Spatiotemporal Responses of Intertidal Sandy Shore Communities to the 2010 Chilean Earthquake

Determining the effects of unpredictable disturbances on dynamic ecological systems is challenged by the paucity of appropriate temporal and spatial coverage of data. On 27 February 2010, an 8.8 Mw mega-earthquake and tsunami struck central Chile and caused coastal land-level changes, massive damage to coastal infrastructure, and widespread mortality of coastal organisms. Wave-exposed sandy beaches showed significant changes of species abundances from before to after the earthquake, but the highly dynamic biotic and abiotic conditions of these habitats make difficult to draw clear-cut conclusions from these patterns. Here, we analysed a beyond-BACI (Before-After Control-Impact) sampling design to test whether the effects of the Maule earthquake on sandy-shore species diversity, abundance, and structure were heterogeneous along the shore. Invertebrate species abundances were quantified before (i.e. February 2010) and after (i.e. March 2010, September 2010, and March 2011) the earthquake at three sandy shores randomly located within the earthquake rupture area and three sites within a “control” area located >400 km southward from epicentre. Immediately after the earthquake took place, the three sites located in the rupture area showed anomalous beach-profile uplifts that did not comply with the erosion (i.e. “negative” uplifts) that regularly occurs during late summer in the region. Species richness, abundance, and community structure significantly varied from before to after the strike, but these patterns of change varied among sites within both areas. Only the site with the strongest and persistent beach-profile uplift within the rupture area showed significant concomitant changes in species richness and community structure; after 13 months, this community showed a similar multivariate structure to the before-disturbance state. This site, in particular, was located in the section of the rupture area that received most of the impact of the after-earthquake tsunami. Therefore, our results suggest that the effects of the Maule mega-earthquake on the ecological communities were spatially heterogeneous and highly localised. We suggest that high mobility and other species’ adaptations to the dynamic environmental conditions of sandy beaches might explain the comparatively high resilience of these assemblages. With this work we hope to motivate further experimental research on the role of individual- and population-level properties in the response of sandy-beach communities to interacting sources of disturbances.

Solar irradiance dictates settlement timing and intensity of marine mussels

Identifying the environmental factors driving larval settlement processes is crucial to understand the population dynamics of marine invertebrates. This work aims to go a step ahead and predict larval presence and intensity. For this purpose we consider the influence of solar irradiance, wind regime and continental runoff on the settlement processes. For the first time, we conducted a 5-years weekly monitoring of Mytilus galloprovincialis settlement on artificial suspended substrates, which allowed us to search for interannual variability in the settlement patterns. Comparison between the seasonal pattern of larval settlement and solar irradiance, as well as the well-known effect of solar irradiance on water temperature and food availability, suggest that solar irradiance indirectly influences the settlement process, and support the use of this meteorological variable to predict settlement occurrence. Our results show that solar irradiance allows predicting the beginning and end of the settlement cycle a month in advance: Particularly we have observed that solar irradiance during late winter indirectly drives the timing and intensity of the settlement onset, Finally, a functional generalise additive model, which considers the influence of solar irradiance and continental runoff on the settlement process, provides an accurate prediction of settlement intensity a fortnight in advance.

Interacting environmental mosaics drive geographic variation in mussel performance and predation vulnerability

Although theory suggests geographic variation in species' performance is determined by multiple niche parameters, little consideration has been given to the spatial structure of interacting stressors that may shape local and regional vulnerability to global change. Here, we use spatially explicit mosaics of carbonate chemistry, food availability and temperature spanning 1280 km of coastline to test whether persistent, overlapping environmental mosaics mediate the growth and predation vulnerability of a critical foundation species, the mussel Mytilus californianus. We find growth was highest and predation vulnerability was lowest in dynamic environments with frequent exposure to low pH seawater and consistent food. In contrast, growth was lowest and predation vulnerability highest when exposure to low pH seawater was decoupled from high food availability, or in exceptionally warm locations. These results illustrate how interactions among multiple drivers can cause unexpected, yet persistent geographic mosaics of species performance, interactions and vulnerability to environmental change.

Sea Star Wasting Disease in the Keystone Predator Pisaster ochraceus in Oregon: Insights into Differential Population Impacts, Recovery, Predation Rate, and Temperature Effects from Long-Term Research

Sea star wasting disease (SSWD) first appeared in Oregon in April 2014, and by June had spread to most of the coast. Although delayed compared to areas to the north and south, SSWD was initially most intense in north and central Oregon and spread southward. Up to 90% of individuals showed signs of disease from June-August 2014. In rocky intertidal habitats, populations of the dominant sea star Pisaster ochraceus were rapidly depleted, with magnitudes of decline in density among sites ranging from -2x to -9x (59 to 84%) and of biomass from -2.6x to -15.8x (60 to 90%) by September 2014. The frequency of symptomatic individuals declined over winter and persisted at a low rate through the spring and summer 2015 (~5-15%, at most sites) and into fall 2015. Disease expression included six symptoms: initially with twisting arms, then deflation and/or lesions, lost arms, losing grip on substrate, and final disintegration. SSWD was disproportionally higher in orange individuals, and higher in tidepools. Although historically P. ochraceus recruitment has been low, from fall 2014 to spring 2015 an unprecedented surge of sea star recruitment occurred at all sites, ranging from ~7x to 300x greater than in 2014. The loss of adult and juvenile individuals in 2014 led to a dramatic decline in predation rate on mussels compared to the previous two decades. A proximate cause of wasting was likely the "Sea Star associated Densovirus" (SSaDV), but the ultimate factors triggering the epidemic, if any, remain unclear. Although warm temperature has been proposed as a possible trigger, SSWD in Oregon populations increased with cool temperatures. Since P. ochraceus is a keystone predator that can strongly influence the biodiversity and community structure of the intertidal community, major community-level responses to the disease are expected. However, predicting the specific impacts and time course of change across west coast meta-communities is difficult, suggesting the need for detailed coast-wide investigation of the effects of this outbreak.