Female Weddell seals show flexible strategies of colony attendance related to varying environmental conditions

Hurricanes affect diversification among individual life courses of a primate population

Extreme climatic events may influence individual-level variability in phenotypes, survival and reproduction, and thereby drive the pace of evolution. Climate models predict increases in the frequency of intense hurricanes, but no study has measured their impact on individual life courses within animal populations. We used 45 years of demographic data of rhesus macaques to quantify the influence of major hurricanes on reproductive life courses using multiple metrics of dynamic heterogeneity accounting for life course variability and life-history trait variances. To reduce intraspecific competition, individuals may explore new reproductive stages during years of major hurricanes, resulting in higher temporal variation in reproductive trajectories. Alternatively, individuals may opt for a single optimal life-history strategy due to trade-offs between survival and reproduction. Our results show that heterogeneity in reproductive life courses increased by 4% during years of major hurricanes, despite a 2% reduction in the asymptotic growth rate due to an average decrease in mean fertility and survival by that is, shortened life courses and reduced reproductive output. In agreement with this, the population is expected to achieve stable population dynamics faster after being perturbed by a hurricane (ρ = 1.512 ; 95% CI: 1.488, 1.538), relative to ordinary yearsρ = 1.482 ; 1.475 , 1.490 . Our work suggests that natural disasters force individuals into new demographic roles to potentially reduce competition during unfavourable environments where mean reproduction and survival are compromised. Variance in lifetime reproductive success and longevity are differently affected by hurricanes, and such variability is mostly driven by survival.

Key questions in marine mammal bioenergetics

Bioenergetic approaches are increasingly used to understand how marine mammal populations could be affected by a changing and disturbed aquatic environment. There remain considerable gaps in our knowledge of marine mammal bioenergetics, which hinder the application of bioenergetic studies to inform policy decisions. We conducted a priority-setting exercise to identify high-priority unanswered questions in marine mammal bioenergetics, with an emphasis on questions relevant to conservation and management. Electronic communication and a virtual workshop were used to solicit and collate potential research questions from the marine mammal bioenergetic community. From a final list of 39 questions, 11 were identified as 'key' questions because they received votes from at least 50% of survey participants. Key questions included those related to energy intake (prey landscapes, exposure to human activities) and expenditure (field metabolic rate, exposure to human activities, lactation, time-activity budgets), energy allocation priorities, metrics of body condition and relationships with survival and reproductive success and extrapolation of data from one species to another. Existing tools to address key questions include labelled water, animal-borne sensors, mark-resight data from long-term research programs, environmental DNA and unmanned vehicles. Further validation of existing approaches and development of new methodologies are needed to comprehensively address some key questions, particularly for cetaceans. The identification of these key questions can provide a guiding framework to set research priorities, which ultimately may yield more accurate information to inform policies and better conserve marine mammal populations.

The role of context in elucidating drivers of animal movement

Despite its consequences for ecological processes and population dynamics, intra-specific variability is frequently overlooked in animal movement studies. Consequently, the necessary resolution to reveal drivers of individual movement decisions is often lost as animal movement data are aggregated to infer average or population patterns. Thus, an empirical understanding of why a given movement pattern occurs remains patchy for many taxa, especially in marine systems. Nonetheless, movement is often rationalized as being driven by basic life history requirements, such as acquiring energy (feeding), reproduction, predator-avoidance, and remaining in suitable environmental conditions. However, these life history requirements are central to every individual within a species and thus do not sufficiently account for the high intra-specific variability in movement behavior and hence fail to fully explain the occurrence of multiple movement strategies within a species. Animal movement appears highly context dependent as, for example, within the same location, the behavior of both resident and migratory individuals is driven by life history requirements, such as feeding or reproduction, however different movement strategies are utilized to fulfill them. A systematic taxa-wide approach that, instead of averaging population patterns, incorporates and utilizes intra-specific variability to enable predictions as to which movement patterns can be expected under a certain context, is needed. Here, we use intra-specific variability in elasmobranchs as a case study to introduce a stepwise approach for studying animal movement drivers that is based on a context-dependence framework. We examine relevant literature to illustrate how this context-focused approach can aid in reliably identifying drivers of a specific movement pattern. Ultimately, incorporating behavioral variability in the study of movement drivers can assist in making predictions about behavioral responses to environmental change, overcoming tagging biases, and establishing more efficient conservation measures.

Ice matters: Life-history strategies of two Antarctic seals dictate climate change eventualities in the Weddell Sea

The impacts of climate change in Antarctica and the Southern Ocean are not uniform and ice-obligate species with dissimilar life-history characteristics will likely respond differently to their changing ecosystems. We use a unique data set of Weddell Leptonychotes weddellii and crabeater seals' (CESs) Lobodon carcinophaga breeding season distribution in the Weddell Sea, determined from satellite imagery. We contrast the theoretical climate impacts on both ice-obligate predators who differ in life-history characteristics: CESs are highly specialized Antarctic krill Euphausia superba predators and breed in the seasonal pack ice; Weddell seals (WESs) are generalist predators and breed on comparatively stable fast ice. We used presence-absence data and a suite of remotely sensed environmental variables to build habitat models. Each of the environmental predictors is multiplied by a 'climate change score' based on known responses to climate change to create a 'change importance product'. Results show CESs are more sensitive to climate change than WESs. Crabeater seals prefer to breed close to krill, and the compounding effects of changing sea ice concentrations and sea surface temperatures, the proximity to krill and abundance of stable breeding ice, can influence their post-breeding foraging success and ultimately their future breeding success. But in contrast to the Ross Sea, here WESs prefer to breed closer to larger colonies of emperor penguins (Aptenodytes forsteri). This suggests that the Weddell Sea may currently be prey-abundant, allowing the only two air-breathing Antarctic silverfish predators (Pleuragramma antarctica) (WESs and emperor penguins) to breed closer to each other. This is the first basin-scale, region-specific comparison of breeding season habitat in these two key Antarctic predators based on real-world data to compare climate change responses. This work shows that broad-brush, basin-scale approaches to understanding species-specific responses to climate change are not always appropriate, and regional models are needed-especially when designing marine protected areas.

Insights from the first global population estimate of Weddell seals in Antarctica

The Weddell seal is one of the best-studied marine mammals in the world, owing to a multidecadal demographic effort in the southernmost part of its range. Despite their occurrence around the Antarctic coastline, we know little about larger scale patterns in distribution, population size, or structure. We combined high-resolution satellite imagery from 2011, crowd-sourcing, and habitat modeling to report the first global population estimate for the species and environmental factors that influence its distribution. We estimated ~202,000 (95% confidence interval: 85,345 to 523,140) sub-adult and adult female seals, with proximate ocean depth and fast-ice variables as factors explaining spatial prevalence. Distances to penguin colonies were associated with seal presence, but only emperor penguin population size had a strong negative relationship. The small, estimated population size relative to previous estimates and the seals’ nexus with trophic competitors indicates that a community ecology approach is required in efforts to monitor the Southern Ocean ecosystem.

Environment-sensitive mass changes influence breeding frequency in a capital breeding marine top predator

The trade-off between survival and reproduction in resource-limited iteroparous animals can result in some individuals missing some breeding opportunities. In practice, even with the best observation regimes, deciding whether 'missed' years represent real pauses in breeding or failures to detect breeding can be difficult, posing problems for the estimation of individual reproductive output and overall population fecundity. We corrected fecundity estimates by determining whether breeding had occurred in skipped years, using long-term capture-recapture observation datasets with parallel longitudinal mass measurements, based on informative underlying relationships between individuals' mass, breeding status and environmental drivers in a capital breeding phocid, the grey seal. Bayesian modelling considered interacting processes jointly: temporal changes in a phenotypic covariate (mass); relationship of mass to breeding probability; effects of maternal breeding state and mark type on resighting. Full reproductive histories were imputed, with the status of unobserved animals estimated as breeding or non-breeding, accounting for local environmental variation. Overall fecundity was then derived for Scottish breeding colonies with contrasting pup production trends. Maternal mass affected breeding likelihood. Mothers with low body mass at the end of breeding were less likely to bear a pup the following year. Successive breeding episodes incurred a cost in reduced body mass which was more pronounced for North Rona, Outer Hebrides (NR) mothers. Skipping breeding increased subsequent pupping probability substantially for low mass females. Poor environmental conditions were associated with declines in breeding probability at both colonies. Seal mass gain between breeding seasons was (a) negatively associated with lagged North Atlantic Oscillation for seals at NR and (b) positively associated with an index of seal prey (Ammodytes spp) abundance at Isle of May, Firth of Forth (IM). Overall fecundity was marginally greater at IM (increasing/stable pup production) than at NR (decreasing). No effects of mass were detected on maternal survival. Skipping breeding in female grey seals appears to be an individual mass-dependent constraint moderated by previous reproductive output and local environmental conditions. Different demographic trends at breeding colonies were consistent with the fecundities estimated using this method, which is general and adaptable to other situations.

Reproductive success delays moult phenology in a polar mammal

Animals can respond to dynamic environments through phenological plasticity of life history events; however, changes in one part of the annual cycle can diminish the success of subsequent life history events. Our aims were to determine the associations between reproduction and moult phenology across years and to quantify phenological plasticity across varying environmental conditions. We conducted demographic surveys of 4,252 flipper-tagged Weddell seals (Leptonychotes weddellii) in the Ross Sea, Antarctica during four austral summers. At each sighting, seals were assigned a moult code based on the visible presence of new fur and the start date of each animal’s moult was back-calculated. Reproductive success and parturition dates were obtained for the breeding season prior to and following the moult. We found that successful reproduction delayed moult by 16 days relative to non-parturient females. Phenology of the intervening moult was indicative of previous reproductive dynamics but not predictive of subsequent reproductive outcomes. Across years, moult phenology varied by about two weeks and covaried strongly with sea ice break-out timing for all reproductive categories. Our findings suggest these polar mammals have some flexibility within the annual cycle that allows adjustment of moult phenology to fluctuating environmental conditions without compromising future reproductive success.

Variation in the vital rates of an Antarctic marine predator: the role of individual heterogeneity

Variation in life-history traits such as lifespan and lifetime reproductive output is thought to arise, in part, due to among-individual differences in the underlying probabilities of survival and reproduction. However, the stochastic nature of demographic processes can also generate considerable variation in fitness-related traits among otherwise-identical individuals. An improved understanding of life-history evolution and population dynamics therefore depends on evaluating the relative role of each of these processes. Here, we used a 33-yr data set with reproductive histories for 1,274 female Weddell seals from Erebus Bay, Antarctica, to assess the strength of evidence for among-individual heterogeneity in the probabilities of survival and reproduction, while accounting for multiple other sources of variation in vital rates. Our analysis used recent advances in Bayesian model selection techniques and diagnostics to directly compare model fit and predictive power between models that included individual effects on survival and reproduction to those that did not. We found strong evidence for costs of reproduction to both survival and future reproduction, with breeders having rates of survival and subsequent reproduction that were 3% and 6% lower than rates for non-breeders. We detected age-related changes in the rates of survival and reproduction, but the patterns differed for the two rates. Survival rates steadily declined from 0.92 at age 7 to 0.56 at the maximal age of 31 yr. In contrast, reproductive rates increased from 0.68 at age 7 to 0.79 at age 16 and then steadily declined to 0.37 for the oldest females. Models that included individual effects explained more variation in observed life histories and had better estimated predictive power than those that did not, indicating their importance in understanding sources of variation among individuals in life-history traits. We found that among-individual heterogeneity in survival was small relative to that for reproduction. Our study, which found patterns of variation in vital rates that are consistent with a series of predictions from life-history theory, is the first to provide a thorough assessment of variation in important vital rates for a long-lived, high-latitude marine mammal while taking full advantage of recent developments in model evaluation.

Seabirds fighting for land: phenotypic consequences of breeding area constraints at a small remote archipelago

Identifying associations between phenotypes and environmental parameters is crucial for understanding how natural selection acts at the individual level. In this context, genetically isolated populations can be useful models for identifying the forces selecting fitness-related traits. Here, we use a comprehensive dataset on a genetically and ecologically isolated population of the strictly marine bird, the brown booby Sula leucogaster, at the tropical and remote Saint Peter and Saint Paul Archipelago, mid-Atlantic Ocean, in order to detect phenotypic adjustments from interindividual differences in diet, foraging behaviour, and nest quality. For this, we took biometrics of all individuals of the colony breeding in 2014 and 2015 and tested their associations with nest quality, diet parameters, and foraging behaviour. While body size was not related to the foraging parameters, the body size of the females (responsible for nest acquisition and defence) was significantly associated with the nest quality, as larger females occupied high-quality nests. Our findings suggest that the small breeding area, rather than prey availability, is a limiting factor, emphasizing the role of on-land features in shaping phenotypic characteristics and fitness in land-dependent marine vertebrates.

New data on Weddell seal (Leptonychotes weddellii) colonies: A genetic analysis of a top predator from the Ross Sea, Antarctica

In this paper, we studied the genetic variability in Weddell seal from colonies in Terra Nova Bay and Wood Bay, both sites located in the Ross Sea area, Antarctica. Two mitochondrial genes and one nuclear gene, with different mutation rates, were sequenced to investigate the haplotype diversity of the colonies and to test for a possible recent expansion. Fifteen microsatellites were used to analyze their genetic structure. Sequenced genes and microsatellites were also used to estimate the effective population size of the studied colonies and the Ross Sea seal population. The Ross Sea has a high density population of Weddel seals, with an estimated effective number of 50,000 females, and 1,341 individuals for the sampling area, possibly due to its high primary production. The colonies showed high diversity (Hd > 0.90) and many exclusive haplotypes (> 75%), likely a consequence of the surprisingly high site fidelity of Weddell seals, despite the proximity of the colonies. Nevertheless, there was low microsatellite differentiation between colonies, suggesting that they are part of a single larger population. Their expansion seemed to have started during the last glacial cycle (around 58,000 years ago), indicating that the Ross Sea seal populations have been present in the area for long time, probably due to the lack of hunting by humans and terrestrial predation. As a top predator, the role of Weddell seals in the Ross Sea ecology is crucial, and its demographic dynamics should be monitored to follow the future changes of such an important ecosystem.

Contrasting behavior between two populations of an ice-obligate predator in East Antarctica

The Austral autumn–winter is a critical period for capital breeders such as Weddell seals that must optimize resource acquisition and storage to provision breeding in the subsequent spring. However, how Weddell seals find food in the winter months remains poorly documented. We equipped adult Weddell seals after their annual molt with satellite‐relayed data loggers at two sites in East Antarctica: Dumont D'Urville (n = 12, DDU) and Davis (n = 20). We used binomial generalized mixed‐effect models to investigate Weddell seals’ behavioral response (i.e., “hunting” vs. “transit”) to physical aspects of their environment (e.g., ice concentration). Weddell seal foraging was concentrated to within 5 km of a breathing hole, and they appear to move between holes as local food is depleted. There were regional differences in behavior so that seals at Davis traveled greater distances (three times more) and spent less time in hunting mode (half the time) than seals at DDU. Despite these differences, hunting dives at both locations were pelagic, concentrated in areas of high ice concentration, and over areas of complex bathymetry. There was also a seasonal change in diving behavior from transiting early in the season to more hunting during winter. Our observations suggest that Weddell seal foraging behavior is plastic and that they respond behaviorally to changes in their environment to maximize food acquisition and storage. Such plasticity is a hallmark of animals that live in very dynamic environments such as the high Antarctic where resources are unpredictable.