Beyond arctic and alpine: the influence of winter climate on temperate ecosystems

Extreme cold reduces seedling establishment, but native species appear more susceptible than non-native species

PREMISE

Extreme-cold events are increasingly recognized as one of the most damaging aspects of climate change in northern temperate ecosystems. However, little data exists describing how native and non-native species may respond to these extreme events, especially as seeds. We used a greenhouse experiment to test how extreme cold reduces seedling establishment in seven woody species common to eastern North America. We hypothesized that the effects of extreme cold depend on provenance (native vs. non-native) and chilling period.

METHODS

Following chilling periods of 80, 100, or 120 days, seeds experienced a false-spring with temperatures at 15°C for one week; half of the seeds in each dormancy treatment group experienced a two-day extreme-cold event (-13.9°C) while the rest returned to mild winter temperatures (4°C).

RESULTS

Extreme-cold events universally decreased seedling establishment, but non-native species had four times greater survival in the extreme-cold treatment (mean ± s.e.: 0.108 ± 0.024) compared to native species (0.024 ± 0.018). Furthermore, native seeds were increasingly susceptible to extreme-cold damage following a 120-day chilling period, whereas non-native seeds were able to resist extreme cold equally following all chilling periods.

CONCLUSIONS

These results suggest that in eastern North America, cold resistance could be a trait facilitating the success of non-native species. The introduction of non-native species may synergize with climate change to alter community composition, which could have important consequences for forest biodiversity in the Anthropocene.

Distribution, species richness, and relative importance of different plant life forms across drylands in China

Studies on plant diversity are usually based on the total number of species in a community. However, few studies have examined species richness (SR) of different plant life forms in a community along large-scale environmental gradients. Particularly, the relative importance (RIV) of different plant life forms in a community and how they vary with environmental variables are still unclear. To fill these gaps, we determined plant diversity of ephemeral plants, annual herbs, perennial herbs, and woody plants from 187 sites across drylands in China. The SR patterns of herbaceous plants, especially perennial herbs, and their RIV in plant communities increased with increasing precipitation and soil nutrient content; however, the RIV of annual herbs was not altered along these gradients. The SR and RIV of ephemeral plants were affected mainly by precipitation seasonality. The SR of woody plants had a unimodal relationship with air temperature and exhibited the highest RIV and SR percentage in plant communities under the harshest environments. An obvious shift emerged in plant community composition, SR and their critical impact factors at 238.5 mm of mean annual precipitation (MAP). In mesic regions (> 238.5 mm), herbs were the dominant species, and the SR displayed a relatively slow decreasing rate with increasing aridity, which was mediated mainly by MAP and soil nutrients. In arid regions (< 238.5 mm), woody plants were the dominant species, and the SR displayed a relatively fast decreasing rate with increasing aridity, which was mediated mainly by climate variables, especially precipitation. Our findings highlight the importance of comparative life form studies in community structure and biodiversity, as their responses to gradients differed substantially on a large scale.

The temperate forest phyllosphere and rhizosphere microbiome: a case study of sugar maple

The interactions between sugar maple (Acer saccharum, Marshall) and its microbial communities are important for tree fitness, growth, and establishment. Despite recent progress in our understanding of the rhizosphere and phyllosphere microbial communities of sugar maple, many outstanding knowledge gaps remain. This review delves into the relationships between sugar maple and its microbes, as climate change alters plant species distributions. It highlights the multifaceted roles of key microbes, such as arbuscular mycorrhizal (AM) fungi and pathogens, in affecting the distribution and establishment of sugar maple in novel habitats. Furthermore, this review examines how microbial communities in different compartments contribute to tree fitness. Finally, it explores how microbial dispersal and altered species interactions under changing environmental conditions can affect sugar maple's ability to migrate beyond its current range, emphasizing the different scenarios associated with such shifts. In the rhizosphere, AM fungi are known for their roles in nutrient acquisition and improving stress tolerance. Yet, key questions remain about how these fungi interact with other microbes, how soil chemistry and climate change alter these interactions, and how the presence of beneficial microbes influences sugar maple's establishment. Additionally, the role of dark septate endophytes (DSE) in sugar maple's fitness remains underexplored, emphasizing the need for more research on their diversity and functions. In the phyllosphere, microbial communities are subject to shifts due to rising global change, with potential impacts on sugar maple's fitness. These changes may influence the tree's resistance to pathogens, tolerance to environmental stress, and overall health. Yet, our understanding of these interactions relies mostly on short-read sequencing methods targeting marker genes (e.g., 16S, ITS, 18S), which often fail to identify microbes at the species level. Limitations in molecular techniques and poor microbial reference databases hinder our ability to fully characterize tree-associated microbial diversity and functions. Future research should thus prioritize advanced molecular tools such as shotgun, hybrid, or long-read sequencing. Controlled experiments are also needed to establish causal links between sugar maple fitness and microbial communities, and to study whether microbial communities change throughout the tree's lifespan.

Impact of Climate Change on Distribution of Endemic Plant Section Tuberculata (Camellia L.) in China: MaxEnt Model-Based Projection

Sect. Tuberculata, as one of the endemic plant groups in China, belongs to the genus Camellia of the Theaceae family and possesses significant economic and ecological value. Nevertheless, the characteristics of habitat distribution and the major eco-environmental variables affecting its suitability are poorly understood. In this study, using 65 occurrence records, along with 60 environmental factors, historical, present and future suitable habitats were estimated using MaxEnt modeling, and the important environmental variables affecting the geographical distribution of sect. Tuberculata were analyzed. The results indicate that the size of the its potential habitat area in the current climate was 1.05 × 105 km2, and the highly suitable habitats were located in Guizhou, central-southern Sichuan, the Wuling Mountains in Chongqing, the Panjiang Basin, and southwestern Hunan. The highest probability of presence for it occurs at mean diurnal range (bio2) ≤ 7.83 °C, basic saturation (s_bs) ≤ 53.36%, temperature annual range (bio7) ≤ 27.49 °C, -7.75 °C < mean temperature of driest quarter (bio9) < 7.75 °C, annual UV-B seasonality (uvb2) ≤ 1.31 × 105 W/m2, and mean UV-B of highest month (uvb3) ≤ 5089.61 W/m2. In particular, bio2 is its most important environmental factor. During the historical period, the potential habitat area for sect. Tuberculata was severely fragmented; in contrast, the current period has a more concentrated habitat area. In the three future periods, the potential habitat area will change by varying degrees, depending on the aggressiveness of emissions reductions, and the increase in the potential habitat area was the largest in the SSP2.6 (Low-concentration greenhouse gas emissions) scenario. Although the SSP8.5 (High-concentration greenhouse gas emissions) scenario indicated an expansion in its habitat in the short term, its growth and development would be adversely affected in the long term. In the centroid analysis, the centroid of its potential habitat will shift from lower to higher latitudes in the northwest direction. The findings of our study will aid efforts to uncover its originsand geographic differentiation, conservation of unique germplasms, and forestry development and utilization.

Germination response to winter temperature changes with seed shape and length of temperature exposure

In many regions, the climate is changing faster during winter than during the other seasons, and a loss of snow cover combined with increased temperature variability can expose overwintering organisms to harmful conditions. Understanding how species respond to these changes during critical developmental times, such as seed germination, helps us assess the ecological implications of winter climate change. To address this concern, we measured the breaking of seed dormancy and cold tolerance of temperate grassland species in the lab and field. In the lab, we ran germination trials testing the tolerance of 17 species to an extreme cold event. In the field, we deployed seeds of two species within a snow manipulation experiment at three locations and measured germination success biweekly from seeds subjected to ambient and reduced snow cover from winter into spring. From lab trials, cold tolerance varied among species, with seed germination decreasing <10%-100% following extreme cold events. Cold tolerance was related to seed traits, specifically less round seeds, seeds that required cold stratification, and seeds that mature later in the season tended to be more impacted by extreme cold temperatures. This variation in seed cold tolerance may contribute to altered community composition with continued winter climate change. In the field, germination increased through late winter, coinciding with the accumulation of days where temperatures were favorable for cold stratification. Through spring, germination success decreased as warm temperatures accumulated. Collectively, species-specific seed cold tolerances and mortality rates may contribute to compositional changes in grasslands under continued winter climate change.

Later-melting rather than thickening of snowpack enhance the productivity and alter the community composition of temperate grassland

Snowpack is closely related to vegetation green-up in water-limited ecosystems, and has effects on growing-season ecosystem processes. However, we know little about how changes in snowpack depth and melting timing affect primary productivity and plant community structure during the growing season. Here, we conducted a four-year snow manipulation experiment exploring how snow addition, snowmelt delay and their combination affect aboveground net primary productivity (ANPP), species diversity, community composition and plant reproductive phenology in seasonally snow-covered temperate grassland in northern China. Snow addition alone increased soil moisture and nutrient availability during early spring, while did not change plant community structure and ANPP. Instead, snowmelt delay alone postponed plant reproductive phenology, and increased ANPP, decreased species diversity and altered species composition. Grasses are more sensitive to changes in snowmelt timing than forbs, and early-flowering forbs showed a higher sensitivity compared to late-flowering forbs. The effect of snowmelt delay on ANPP and species diversity was offset by snow addition, probably because the added snow unnecessarily lengthens the snow-covering duration. The disparate effects of changes in snowpack depth and snowmelt timing necessitate their discrimination for more mechanistic understanding on the effects of snowpack changes on ecosystems. Our study suggests that it is essential to incorporate non-growing-season climate change events (in particular, snowfall and snowpack changes) to comprehensively disclose the effects of climate change on community structure and ecosystem functions.

The long shadow of woody encroachment: An integrated approach to modeling grassland songbird habitat

Animals must track resources over relatively fine spatial and temporal scales, particularly in disturbance-mediated systems like grasslands. Grassland birds respond to habitat heterogeneity by dispersing among sites within and between years, yet we know little about how they make post-dispersal settlement decisions. Many methods exist to quantify the resource selection of mobile taxa, but the habitat data used in these models are frequently not collected at the same location or time that individuals were present. This spatiotemporal misalignment may lead to incorrect interpretations and adverse conservation outcomes, particularly in dynamic systems. To investigate the extent to which spatially and temporally dynamic vegetation conditions and topography drive grassland bird settlement decisions, we integrated multiple data sources from our study site to predict slope, vegetation height, and multiple metrics of vegetation cover at any point in space and time within the temporal and spatial scope of our study. We paired these predictions with avian mark-resight data for 8 years at the Konza Prairie Biological Station in NE Kansas to evaluate territory selection for Grasshopper Sparrows (Ammodramus savannarum), Dickcissels (Spiza americana), and Eastern Meadowlarks (Sturnella magna). Each species selected different types and amounts of herbaceous vegetation cover, but all three species preferred relatively flat areas with less than 6% shrub cover and less than 1% tree cover. We evaluated several scenarios of woody vegetation removal and found that, with a targeted approach, the simulated removal of just one isolated tree in the uplands created up to 14 ha of grassland bird habitat. This study supports growing evidence that small amounts of woody encroachment can fragment landscapes, augmenting conservation threats to grassland systems. Conversely, these results demonstrate that drastic increases in bird habitat area could be achieved through relatively efficient management interventions. The results and approaches reported pave the way for more efficient conservation efforts in grasslands and other systems through spatiotemporal alignment of habitat with animal behaviors and simulated impacts of management interventions.

Global warming alters Himalayan alpine shrub growth dynamics and climate sensitivity

Global climate change is having significant effects on plant growth patterns and mountain plants can be particularly vulnerable to accelerated warming. Rising temperatures are releasing plants from cold limitation, such as at high elevations and latitudes, but can also induce drought limitation, as documented for trees from lower elevations and latitudes. Here we test these predictions using a unique natural experiment with Himalayan alpine shrub Rhododendron anthopogon and its growth responses to changing climate over a large portion of its latitudinal and elevational ranges, including steep precipitation and temperature gradients. We determined growth dynamics during the last three decades, representing period of accelerated warming, using annual radial growth increments for nine populations growing on both wet and warm southern localities and drier and cold northern localities in the Himalayas along elevation gradients encompassing the lower and upper species range limits. A significant growth increase over past decades was observed after controlling for confounding effect of shrub age and microsites. However, the magnitude of increase varied among populations. Particularly, populations situated in the lower elevation of the northernmost (cold and dry) locality exhibited most substantial growth enhancement. The relationship between growth variability and climate varied among populations, with the populations from the coldest location displaying the strongest responsiveness to increasing minimum temperatures during July. Minimum temperatures of April and August were the most important factor limiting the growth across most populations. Potential warming-induced drought limitation had no significant impact on growth variation in any part of the species geographic range. Overall, our findings indicate that plant growth is continuously increasing in recent decades and growth-climate relationships are not consistent across populations, with populations from the coldest and wettest localities showing stronger responses. The observed patterns suggest that dwarf-shrubs benefit from ongoing warming, leading to increased shrubification of high elevation alpine ecosystems.

Response of plant diversity and soil microbial diversity to warming and increased precipitation in alpine grasslands on the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau - A review

Plant diversity and soil microbial diversity are closely related, and they maintain the health and stability of terrestrial ecosystems. As a hotspot region of global biodiversity research, both air temperature and precipitation of the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau tend to increase in future. Based on an overview of the responses of grassland/alpine ecosystems to seasonal asymmetric warming and increased precipitation worldwide, we elaborated the advancements and uncertainties on the responses of plant diversity and soil microbial diversity to warming and increased precipitation in alpine grasslands on the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau. The future research focus of plant diversity and soil microbial diversity in the alpine grasslands of the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau under climate warming and increased precipitation was proposed. Generally, previous studies found that the responses of plant species diversity and soil microbial species diversity to warming and increased precipitation differed between alpine meadows and alpine steppes, but few studies focused on their responses to warming and increased precipitation in alpine desert steppes. Previous studies mainly focused on species diversity, although phylogenetic and functional diversities are also important aspects of biodiversity. Previous studies mainly explained responses of plant diversity and soil microbial diversity to warming and increased precipitation based on niche theory, although neutral theory is also the other important mechanism in regulating biodiversity. Moreover, previous studies almost ignored the coupling relationship between plant diversity and soil microbial diversity. Therefore, the following four aspects need to be strengthened, including the responses of plant diversity and soil microbial diversity to warming and increased precipitation in alpine desert steppes, the responses of plant and soil microbial phylogenetic diversity and functional diversity to warming and increased precipitation, combining the niche theory and neutral theory to examining the mechanism of biodiversity, and the coupling relationships between plant diversity and soil microbial diversity under warming and increased precipitation.

Year-round weather alters nest-provisioning rates in a migratory owl

As global temperatures and precipitation become more extreme, habitat specialists are at particular risk of being pushed past their environmental tolerance limits. Flammulated Owls (Psiloscops flammeolus) are small migratory owls that breed in temperate conifer forests of western North America. Their highly specialized nesting and foraging requirements make them indicators of ecosystem health. Using 17 years of nest observations, we investigated how annual weather patterns affected Flammulated Owl nesting and foraging behaviors during the breeding season. We used generalized linear models with a changepoint parameter to evaluate nest provisioning and nestling growth rates in years of extreme temperature and precipitation. We also evaluated how adult mass, division of labor, and productivity varied based on precipitation and temperature. Compared to wet and warm years, adults made more frequent prey deliveries to nestlings in dry and cold years, particularly early in the night and early in the season, and they experienced earlier changepoints in these years. We found a significant effect of temperature on the number of fledglings in broods, but weather did not affect other variables including productivity, nestling growth rates, adult masses, and division of labor. Our findings suggest that extreme annual weather patterns influence insect prey availability during the Flammulated Owl breeding season, forcing adults to work harder to provision for nests during dry and cold years. While productivity and nestling growth did not vary between years, these may incur a long-term tradeoff in adult survival.

Forest and Freshwater Ecosystem Responses to Climate Change and Variability at US LTER Sites

Forest and freshwater ecosystems are tightly linked and together provide important ecosystem services, but climate change is affecting their species composition, structure, and function. Research at nine US Long Term Ecological Research sites reveals complex interactions and cascading effects of climate change, some of which feed back into the climate system. Air temperature has increased at all sites, and those in the Northeast have become wetter, whereas sites in the Northwest and Alaska have become slightly drier. These changes have altered streamflow and affected ecosystem processes, including primary production, carbon storage, water and nutrient cycling, and community dynamics. At some sites, the direct effects of climate change are the dominant driver altering ecosystems, whereas at other sites indirect effects or disturbances and stressors unrelated to climate change are more important. Long-term studies are critical for understanding the impacts of climate change on forest and freshwater ecosystems.

Alpine Litter Humification and Its Response to Reduced Snow Cover: Can More Carbon Be Sequestered in Soils?

While carbon loss from plant litter is well understood, the mechanisms by which this carbon is sequestered in the decomposing litter substrate remains unclear. Here we assessed humus accumulations in five foliar litters during four years of decomposition and their responses to reduced snow cover in an alpine forest. In contrast to the traditional understanding (i.e., the three-stage model), we found that fresh litter had a high humus content (8–13% across species), which consistently increased during litter decomposition and such an increase primarily depended on the accumulation of humic acid. Further, reduced snow cover decreased humus accumulation at early stages but increased it at late stages. These results suggested that humification simultaneously occurred with decomposition during early litter decay, but this process was more sensitive to the changing climate in seasonally snow-covered ecosystems, as previously expected.

Acid Hydrolysable Components Released from Four Decomposing Litter in an Alpine Forest in Sichuan, China

Acid hydrolysable components have been thought to release from plant litter at early periods of decomposition and to be sensitive to hydrological change. Variations in snow depth and timing may alter the release of acid hydrolysable components from decomposing litter in seasonally snow-covered ecosystems. Here, we measured the release of acid hydrolyzable components from four foliar litters (fir, cypress, larch and birch) in deep and shallow snow plots during winter (snow formation, snow coverage and snowmelt stages) and growing seasons in an alpine forest from 2012 to 2016. We found that the content of acid hydrolysable components was 16–21% in fresh litter across species, and only 4–5% of these components remained in the litter after four years of decomposition when 53–66% of litter mass was lost. The content of acid hydrolysable components greatly decreased within 41 days and during the growing seasons of the fourth year of decomposition, suggesting that acid hydrolysable components in plant litter are not only released at early periods but also at a very late period during litter decay. However, the content of acid hydrolysable components increased significantly at snowmelt stages. Reduced snow cover increased the content and remaining level of acid hydrolysable components during the four years of decomposition by altering leaching, microbial biomass and stoichiometry. We propose that more effective partitioning of chemical fractions should be incorporated to distinguish the carbon and nutrient release during litter decomposition within a complex context of the changing environment.

Root-Associated Mycobiomes of Common Temperate Plants (Calluna vulgaris and Holcus lanatus) Are Strongly Affected by Winter Climate Conditions

Winter temperatures are projected to increase in Central Europe. Subsequently, snow cover will decrease, leading to increased soil temperature variability, with potentially different consequences for soil frost depending on e.g. altitude. Here, we experimentally evaluated the effects of increased winter soil temperature variability on the root associated mycobiome of two plant species (Calluna vulgaris and Holcus lanatus) at two sites in Germany; a colder and wetter upland site with high snow accumulation and a warmer and drier lowland site, with low snow accumulation. Mesocosm monocultures were set-up in spring 2010 at both sites (with soil and plants originating from the lowland site). In the following winter, an experimental warming pulse treatment was initiated by overhead infrared heaters and warming wires at the soil surface for half of the mesocosms at both sites. At the lowland site, the warming treatment resulted in a reduced number of days with soil frost as well as increased the average daily temperature amplitude. Contrary, the treatment caused no changes in these parameters at the upland site, which was in general a much more frost affected site. Soil and plant roots were sampled before and after the following growing season (spring and autumn 2011). High-throughput sequencing was used for profiling of the root-associated fungal (ITS marker) community (mycobiome). Site was found to have a profound effect on the composition of the mycobiome, which at the upland site was dominated by fast growing saprotrophs (Mortierellomycota), and at the lowland site by plant species-specific symbionts (e.g. Rhizoscyphus ericae and Microdochium bolleyi for C. vulgaris and H. lanatus respectively). The transplantation to the colder upland site and the temperature treatment at the warmer lowland site had comparable consequences for the mycobiome, implying that winter climate change resulting in higher temperature variability has large consequences for mycobiome structures regardless of absolute temperature of a given site.

Seasonal food webs with migrations: multi-season models reveal indirect species interactions in the Canadian Arctic tundra

Models incorporating seasonality are necessary to fully assess the impact of global warming on Arctic communities. Seasonal migrations are a key component of Arctic food webs that still elude current theories predicting a single community equilibrium. We develop a multi-season model of predator-prey dynamics using a hybrid dynamical systems framework applied to a simplified tundra food web (lemming-fox-goose-owl). Hybrid systems models can accommodate multiple equilibria, which is a basic requirement for modelling food webs whose topology changes with season. We demonstrate that our model can generate multi-annual cycling in lemming dynamics, solely from a combined effect of seasonality and state-dependent behaviour. We compare our multi-season model to a static model of the predator-prey community dynamics and study the interactions between species. Interestingly, including seasonality reveals indirect interactions between migrants and residents not captured by the static model. Further, we find that the direction and magnitude of interactions between two species are not necessarily accurate using only summer time-series. Our study demonstrates the need for the development of multi-season models and provides the tools to analyse them. Integrating seasonality in food web modelling is a vital step to improve predictions about the impacts of climate change on ecosystem functioning. This article is part of the theme issue 'The changing Arctic Ocean: consequences for biological communities, biogeochemical processes and ecosystem functioning'.

The Snowmelt Niche Differentiates Three Microbial Life Strategies That Influence Soil Nitrogen Availability During and After Winter

Soil microbial biomass can reach its annual maximum pool size beneath the winter snowpack and is known to decline abruptly following snowmelt in seasonally snow-covered ecosystems. Observed differences in winter versus summer microbial taxonomic composition also suggests that phylogenetically conserved traits may permit winter- versus summer-adapted microorganisms to occupy distinct niches. In this study, we sought to identify archaea, bacteria, and fungi that are associated with the soil microbial bloom overwinter and the subsequent biomass collapse following snowmelt at a high-altitude watershed in central Colorado, United States. Archaea, bacteria, and fungi were categorized into three life strategies (Winter-Adapted, Snowmelt-Specialist, Spring-Adapted) based upon changes in abundance during winter, the snowmelt period, and after snowmelt in spring. We calculated indices of phylogenetic relatedness (archaea and bacteria) or assigned functional attributes (fungi) to organisms within life strategies to infer whether phylogenetically conserved traits differentiate Winter-Adapted, Snowmelt-Specialist, and Spring-Adapted groups. We observed that the soil microbial bloom was correlated in time with a pulse of snowmelt infiltration, which commenced 65 days prior to soils becoming snow-free. A pulse of nitrogen (N, as nitrate) occurred after snowmelt, along with a collapse in the microbial biomass pool size, and an increased abundance of nitrifying archaea and bacteria (e.g., Thaumarchaeota, Nitrospirae). Winter- and Spring-Adapted archaea and bacteria were phylogenetically clustered, suggesting that phylogenetically conserved traits allow Winter- and Spring-Adapted archaea and bacteria to occupy distinct niches. In contrast, Snowmelt-Specialist archaea and bacteria were phylogenetically overdispersed, suggesting that the key mechanism(s) of the microbial biomass crash are likely to be density-dependent (e.g., trophic interactions, competitive exclusion) and affect organisms across a broad phylogenetic spectrum. Saprotrophic fungi were the dominant functional group across fungal life strategies, however, ectomycorrhizal fungi experienced a large increase in abundance in spring. If well-coupled plant-mycorrhizal phenology currently buffers ecosystem N losses in spring, then changes in snowmelt timing may alter ecosystem N retention potential. Overall, we observed that snowmelt separates three distinct soil niches that are occupied by ecologically distinct groups of microorganisms. This ecological differentiation is of biogeochemical importance, particularly with respect to the mobilization of nitrogen during winter, before and after snowmelt.

Uneven winter snow influence on tree growth across temperate China

Winter snow is an important driver of tree growth in regions where growing-season precipitation is limited. However, observational evidence of this influence at larger spatial scales and across diverse bioclimatic regions is lacking. Here, we investigated the interannual effects of winter (here defined as previous October to current February) snow depth on tree growth across temperate China over the period of 1961-2015, using a regional network of tree ring records, in situ daily snow depth observations, and gridded climate data. We report uneven effects of winter snow depth on subsequent growing-season tree growth across temperate China. There shows little effect on tree growth in drier regions that we attribute mainly to limited snow accumulation during winter. By contrast, winter snow exerts important positive influence on tree growth in stands with high winter snow accumulation (e.g., in parts of cold arid regions). The magnitude of this effect depends on the proportion of winter snow to pre-growing-season (previous October to current April) precipitation. We further observed that tree growth in drier regions tends to be increasingly limited by warmer growing-season temperature and early growing-season water availability. No compensatory effect of winter snow on the intensifying drought limitation of tree growth was observed across temperate China. Our findings point toward an increase in drought vulnerability of temperate forests in a warming climate.

Increasing temperature seasonality may overwhelm shifts in soil moisture to favor shrub over grass dominance in Colorado Plateau drylands

Ecosystems in the southwestern U.S. are predicted to experience continued warming and drying trends of the early twenty-first century. Climate change can shift the balance between grass and woody plant abundance in these water-limited systems, which has large implications for biodiversity and ecosystem processes. However, variability in topo-edaphic conditions, notably soil texture and depth, confound efforts to quantify specific climatic controls over grass vs. shrub dominance. Here, we utilized weather records and a mechanistic soil water model to identify the timing and depth at which soil moisture related most strongly to the balance between grass and shrub dominance in the southern Colorado Plateau. Shrubs dominate where there is high soil moisture availability during winter, and where temperature is more seasonally variable, while grasses are favored where moisture is available during summer. Climate change projections indicate consistent increases in mean temperature and seasonal temperature variability for all sites, but predictions for summer and winter soil moisture vary across sites. Together, these changes in temperature and soil moisture are expected to shift the balance towards increasing shrub dominance across the region. These patterns are strongly driven by changes in temperature, which either enhance or overwhelm effects of changes in soil moisture across sites. This approach, which incorporates local, edaphic factors at sites protected from disturbance, improves understanding of climate change impacts on grass vs. shrub abundance and may be useful in other dryland regions with high edaphic and climatic heterogeneity.

Marine assemblages respond rapidly to winter climate variability

Even species within the same assemblage have varied responses to climate change, and there is a poor understanding for why some taxa are more sensitive to climate than others. In addition, multiple mechanisms can drive species' responses, and responses may be specific to certain life stages or times of year. To test how marine species respond to climate variability, we analyzed 73 diverse taxa off the southeast US coast in 26 years of scientific trawl survey data and determined how changes in distribution and biomass relate to temperature. We found that winter temperatures were particularly useful for explaining interannual variation in species' distribution and biomass, although the direction and magnitude of the response varied among species from strongly negative, to little response, to strongly positive. Across species, the response to winter temperature varied greatly, with much of this variation being explained by thermal preference. A separate analysis of annual commercial fishery landings revealed that winter temperatures may also impact several important fisheries in the southeast United States. Based on the life stages of the species surveyed, winter temperature appears to act through overwinter mortality of juveniles or as a cue for migration timing. We predict that this assemblage will be responsive to projected increases in temperature and that winter temperature may be broadly important for species relationships with climate on a global scale.