Future infectious disease threats to Europe

The effect of adaptive capacity on resilience to the COVID-19 pandemic: A cross-country analysis

The COVID-19 pandemic's profound impacts on global health, driven by preparedness gaps and systemic risks, underscore the need to enhance societies' ability to manage both predictable risks and uncertainties inherent in disasters. While disaster research emphasises risk management for predictable threats and adaptive capacity for unexpected challenges, there is a lack of empirical examination of the impact of adaptive capacity on disaster resilience. This study addresses this gap by identifying three key adaptive capacities - quality of institutions, collaborative governance, and social capital - and examining their effects on COVID-19 resilience outcomes, measured by the ability to reduce excess mortality. Analysing secondary data from 129 nations using partial least squares structural equation modelling, the research finds significant positive effects of institutional quality and social capital on resilience outcomes. Conversely, collaborative governance shows a significant negative association, suggesting potentially intricate impacts beyond initial expectations. The findings highlight the need to enhance institutional quality and social capital to address preparedness gaps and unexpected challenges posed by biological hazards such as COVID-19. Future research should explore collaborative governance using a disaggregated approach that considers the roles of different stakeholders in various disaster phases.

Contribution

This study advances disaster research by presenting practical methodologies for operationalising adaptive capacities and empirically examining their effects on disaster resilience. For practitioners and policymakers, it highlights the need to adopt a long-term perspective in building disaster resilience, focussing on improving institutional quality and social capital to manage the uncertainties and complexities inherent in disaster scenarios effectively.

Permafrost Immunity

Thawing permafrost is a serious and worrisome threat to the environment, because it releases trapped heavy metals and greenhouse gasses. Thawing permafrost is also a health threat because, in addition to releasing these noxious gasses, thawing permafrost may free novel and undiscovered antibiotic-resistant bacteria, viruses, fungi and parasites among a plethora of dormant pathogens. Our immune system is ill-prepared to counter these challenges, and will require significant adaptation, or allostasis, which can be subsumed under the generic term of permafrost immunity. Since most of the most gravely threatening pathogens released by thawing permafrost are likely to penetrate the organism through the oral cavity, permafrost immunity may first be identified in the oral mucosa.

An Old Defence Against New Infections: The Open-Air Factor and COVID-19

Outdoors, the risks of transmission of COVID-19 and many other respiratory infections are low. Several environmental factors are known to reduce the viability of viruses and other infectious pathogens in the air. They include variations in temperature, relative humidity, solar ultraviolet radiation, and dilution effects. But one agent that reduces the viability of both viruses and bacteria outdoors, the germicidal open-air factor (OAF), has not been properly recognized for decades. This is despite robust evidence that the OAF can influence both the survival of airborne pathogens and the course of infections.

The germicidal effects of outdoor air were widely exploited during the late 19th and early 20th centuries. Firstly, in the treatment of tuberculosis patients who underwent 'open-air therapy' in sanatoria; and secondly by military surgeons during the First World War. They used the same open-air regimen in specially designed hospital wards to disinfect and heal severe wounds among injured soldiers. It was also used on influenza patients during the 1918-19 pandemic. Later, in the 1950s, open-air disinfection and treatment of burns were proposed in the event of nuclear warfare. During the 1960s, the OAF briefly returned to prominence when biodefence scientists conducted experiments proving that open air has a potent germicidal effect. When this work ended in the 1970s, interest in the OAF again fell away, and it remains largely ignored.

The COVID-19 pandemic has revived interest in understanding the transmission dynamics and survival of viruses in the air. The pandemic has also stimulated research in the science and practice of improved ventilation to control respiratory infections. Such work is incomplete without an appreciation of the inactivation of viruses and other pathogens by the OAF, but this needs further investigation as a matter of urgency. Research to better understand the conditions under which the OAF can be preserved indoors is urgently needed. We need to review building design with better regard to infection control and patient recovery. But we need to act without delay, as there is already sufficient evidence to show that public health generally would improve if more emphasis was placed on increased exposure to outdoor air.

How the gut parasitome affects human health

The human gut microbiome (GM) is a complex ecosystem that includes numerous prokaryotic and eukaryotic inhabitants. The composition of GM can influence an array of host physiological functions including immune development. Accumulating evidence suggest that several members of non-bacterial microbiota, including protozoa and helminths, that were earlier considered as pathogens, could have a commensal or beneficial relationship with the host. Here we examine the most recent data from omics studies on prokaryota-meiofauna-host interaction as well as the impact of gut parasitome on gut bacterial ecology and its role as 'immunological driver' in health and disease to glimpse new therapeutic perspectives.

Ceftaroline Fosamil for the Empiric Treatment of Hospitalized Adults with cSSTI: An Economic Analysis from the Perspective of the Spanish National Health System

Purpose

Complicated skin and soft tissue infections (cSSTI) are associated with high healthcare resource use and costs. The emergency nature of cSSTI hospitalizations requires starting immediate empiric intravenous (IV) antibiotic treatment, making the appropriate choice of initial antibiotic therapy crucial.

Patients and Methods

The use of ceftaroline fosamil (CFT) as an alternative to other IV antibiotic therapies for the empiric treatment of hospitalized adults with cSSTI (vancomycin, linezolid, daptomycin, cloxacillin, tedizolid) was evaluated through cost consequences analysis. The model structure was a decision tree accounting for four different pathways: patients demonstrating early response (ER) either discharged early (with oral antibiotic) or remaining in hospital to continue the initial therapy; non-responders either remaining on the initial IV therapy or switching to a second-line antibiotic. The model perspective was the Spanish National Health System.

Results

CFT resulted in average percentage of patients discharged early (PDE) of 24.6% (CI 19.49–30.2%) with average total cost per patient of €6763 (€6268–€7219). Vancomycin, linezolid, daptomycin and tedizolid resulted in average PDE of 22% (17.34–27.09%), 26.4% (20.5–32.32%), 28.6% (22.08–35.79%) and 26.5% (20.39–33.25%), respectively, for a total cost per patient of €6,619 (€5,902–€6,929), €6,394 (€5,881–€6,904), €6,855 (€5,800–€7,410) and €7,173 (€6,608–€7,763), respectively. Key model drivers were ER and antibiotic treatment duration, with hospital costs accounting for over 83% of the total expenditures.

Conclusion

Given its clinical and safety profile, CFT is an acceptable choice for cSSTI empiric therapy providing comparable ER and costs to other relevant antibiotic options.

The Influence of War and Conflict on Infectious Disease: A Rapid Review of Historical Lessons We Have Yet to Learn

Armed conflicts degrade established healthcare systems, which typically manifests as a resurgence of preventable infectious diseases. While 70% of deaths globally are now from non-communicable disease; in low-income countries, respiratory infections, diarrheal illness, malaria, tuberculosis, and HIV/AIDs are all in the top 10 causes of death. The burden of these infectious diseases is exacerbated by armed conflict, translating into even more dramatic long-term consequences. This rapid evidence review searched electronic databases in PubMed, Scopus, and Web of Science. Of 381 identified publications, 73 were included in this review. Several authors indicate that the impact of infectious diseases increases in wars and armed conflicts due to disruption to surveillance and response systems that were often poorly developed to begin with. Although the true impact of conflict on infectious disease spread is not known and requires further research, the link between them is indisputable. Current decision-making management systems are insufficient and only pass the baton to the next unwary generation.

COVID-19 and environment: a poignant reminder of sustainability in the new normal

The nexus of COVID-19 and environment is conspicuously deep-rooted. The roles of environmental factors in the origin, transmission and spread of COVID-19 and the mutual impact of the pandemic on the global environment have been the two perspectives to view this nexus. The present paper attempts to systematically review the existing literature to understand and explore the linkages of COVID-19 with environment and proposes conceptual frameworks to underline this nexus. Our study indicates a critical role of meteorological factors, ambient air pollutants and wastewater in severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2(SARS-CoV-2) transmission-spread dynamics. The study also focuses on the direct and indirect impacts of COVID-19 on the regional and global environment. Most of the indirect environmental effects of COVID-19 were attributed to global human confinement that resulted from the implementation of the pandemic containment measures. This worldwide anthropogenic 'pause' sent ripples to all environmental compartments and presented a unique test bed to identify anthropogenic impacts on the earth's natural systems. The review further addresses emerging sustainability challenges in the new normal and their potential solutions. The situation warrants critical attention to the environment-COVID-19 nexus and innovative sustainable practices to address the ramifications of short- and long-term environmental impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Graphical abstract

Theragnostic nanomotors: Successes and upcoming challenges

The idea of "fantastic voyagers" carrying out medical tasks within the human body has existed as part of popular culture for many decades. The concept revolved around a miniaturized robot that can travel inside the human body and perform complicated functions such as surgery, navigation of otherwise inaccessible biological environments, and delivery of therapeutics. Since the last decade, significant developments have occurred in this arena that are yet to enter mainstream biomedical practises. Here, we define the challenges to make this fiction into reality. We begin by chalking the journey from pills, nanoparticles, and then to micro-nanomotors. The review describes the principles, physicochemical contexts, and advantages that micro-nanomotors provide. The article then describes micro-nanomotors' obstacles such as maneuverability, in vivo imaging, toxicity, and biodistribution. This article is categorized under: Diagnostic Tools > In Vivo Nanodiagnostics and Imaging Nanotechnology Approaches to Biology > Nanoscale Systems in Biology.

Gaps in awareness of climate variability and its impacts on society among health professionals and community workers in Vietnam: Implications for COVID-19 and other epidemic response systems

The study presents a cross-sectional analysis via a web-based survey to assess the awareness and experiences of Vietnamese health professionals and community workers on climate and epidemic changes and their impacts on society. Health professionals, medical students, and community workers were included in the survey. Factor analysis was used to explore the construct validity of measures, and Multivariable Tobit regression models were used to examine associated factors with awareness about climate and epidemic changes and impacts on society. Results showed that the awareness of participants about climate and epidemic changes was moderately-low, while the awareness about the impacts on society were moderately high. Community workers show higher awareness of climate and epidemic changes compared to health professionals. People working in provincial levels had a lower score (Coef. = -0.64, 95%CI = -1.19 to -0.09) than those working in central level. Compared to Northern participants, those living in Central and Southern regions have lower awareness scores regarding "Changes in weather and epidemics" and "Changes in the environment" compared to Northern people. The higher awareness about climate and epidemic changes were found to be correlated with the higher awareness of "Impacts on health, society and economy" and "Impact on individuals and families". Community workers scored lower in "Impact on individuals and families" compared to health professionals (Coef.-0.75; 95%CI = -1.34 to -0.16). This study emphasized the vulnerabilities of Vietnamese communities to epidemics and climate change. It suggests the involvements of intersectoral taskforces in the preparedness and responses to climate change and epidemics.

Web-Based Apps for Responding to Acute Infectious Disease Outbreaks in the Community: Systematic Review

Background

Web-based technology has dramatically improved our ability to detect communicable disease outbreaks, with the potential to reduce morbidity and mortality because of swift public health action. Apps accessible through the internet and on mobile devices create an opportunity to enhance our traditional indicator-based surveillance systems, which have high specificity but issues with timeliness.

Objective

The aim of this study is to describe the literature on web-based apps for indicator-based surveillance and response to acute communicable disease outbreaks in the community with regard to their design, implementation, and evaluation.

Methods

We conducted a systematic search of the published literature across four databases (MEDLINE via OVID, Web of Science Core Collection, ProQuest Science, and Google Scholar) for peer-reviewed journal papers from January 1998 to October 2019 using a keyword search. Papers with the full text available were extracted for review, and exclusion criteria were applied to identify eligible papers.

Results

Of the 6649 retrieved papers, 23 remained, describing 15 web-based apps. Apps were primarily designed to improve the early detection of disease outbreaks, targeted government settings, and comprised either complex algorithmic or statistical outbreak detection mechanisms or both. We identified a need for these apps to have more features to support secure information exchange and outbreak response actions, with a focus on outbreak verification processes and staff and resources to support app operations. Evaluation studies (6 out of 15 apps) were mostly cross-sectional, with some evidence of reduction in time to notification of outbreak; however, studies lacked user-based needs assessments and evaluation of implementation.

Conclusions

Public health officials designing new or improving existing disease outbreak web-based apps should ensure that outbreak detection is automatic and signals are verified by users, the app is easy to use, and staff and resources are available to support the operations of the app and conduct rigorous and holistic evaluations.

Hand Hygiene Behaviors in a Representative Sample of Polish Adolescents in Regions Stratified by COVID-19 Morbidity and by Confounding Variables (PLACE-19 Study): Is There Any Association?

The hand hygiene may possibly influence the course of the COVID-19 pandemic, but the multifactorial influence on hand hygiene knowledge and behaviors is proven. The aim of the study was to analyze hand hygiene behaviors in a national representative sample of Polish adolescents in regions stratified by COVID-19 morbidity, while taking socioeconomic status of the region, as well rural or urban environment, into account as possible interfering factors. The study was conducted Polish Adolescents’ COVID-19 Experience (PLACE-19) Study population (n = 2323) that was recruited based on a random sampling of schools, while the pair-matching procedure was applied within schools and age, in order to obtain adequate number of boys and girls, representative for the general Polish population (n = 1222). The participants were asked about their handwashing habits while using Handwashing Habits Questionnaire (HHQ) and about applied procedure of washing hands. The results were compared in subgroups that were stratified by region for COVID-19 morbidity, socioeconomic status of the region, and rural/urban environment. In regions of low COVID-19 morbidity, a higher share of adolescents, than in regions of high morbidity, declared washing their hands before meals (p = 0.0196), after meals (p = 0.0041), after preparing meals (p = 0.0297), before using the restroom (p = 0.0068), after using the restroom (p = 0.0014), after combing their hair (p = 0.0298), after handshaking (p = 0.0373), after touching animals (p = 0.0007), after contacting babies (p = 0.0278), after blowing nose (p = 0.0435), after touching sick people (p = 0.0351), and after cleaning home (p = 0.0234). For the assessed steps of the handwashing procedure, in regions of low COVID-19 morbidity, a higher share of adolescents included them to their daily handwashing, than in regions of high morbidity, that was stated for removing watch and bracelets (p = 0.0052), removing rings (p = 0.0318), and drying hands with towel (p = 0.0031). For the comparison in regions stratified by Gross Domestic Product, the differences were only minor and inconsistent. For the comparison in place of residence stratified by number of residents in city, there were some minor differences indicating better hand hygiene behaviors in the case of villages and small towns when compared with medium and large cities (p < 0.05). It may be concluded that, in a population-based sample of Polish adolescents, individuals from regions of low COVID-19 morbidity presented more beneficial hand hygiene habits than those from regions of high COVID-19 morbidity.

Distribution of COVID-19 Morbidity Rate in Association with Social and Economic Factors in Wuhan, China: Implications for Urban Development

Social and economic factors relate to the prevention and control of infectious diseases. The purpose of this paper was to assess the distribution of COVID-19 morbidity rate in association with social and economic factors and discuss the implications for urban development that help to control infectious diseases. This study was a cross-sectional study. In this study, social and economic factors were classified into three dimensions: built environment, economic activities, and public service status. The method applied in this study was the spatial regression analysis. In the 13 districts in Wuhan, the spatial regression analysis was applied. The results showed that: 1) increasing population density, construction land area proportion, value-added of tertiary industry per unit of land area, total retail sales of consumer goods per unit of land area, public green space density, aged population density were associated with an increased COVID-19 morbidity rate due to the positive characteristics of estimated coefficients of these variables. 2) increasing average building scale, GDP per unit of land area, and hospital density were associated with a decreased COVID-19 morbidity rate due to the negative characteristics of estimated coefficients of these variables. It was concluded that it is possible to control infectious diseases, such as COVID-19, by adjusting social and economic factors. We should guide urban development to improve human health.

Antimicrobial resistance in Neisseria gonorrhoeae isolates from foreign-born population in the European Gonococcal Antimicrobial Surveillance Programme

Objectives

International spread has contributed substantially to the high prevalence of antimicrobial resistant (AMR) Neisseria gonorrhoeae infections worldwide. We compared the prevalence of AMR gonococcal isolates among native persons to foreign-born (reporting country different from country of birth) persons, and describe the epidemiological and clinical characteristics of foreign-born patients and their associations to AMR.

Methods

We analysed isolates and patient data reported to the European Gonococcal Antimicrobial Surveillance Programme (Euro-GASP) 2010–2014 (n=9529).

Results

Forty-three per cent of isolates had known country of birth and 17.2% of these were from persons born abroad. Almost 50% of foreign-born were from the WHO European Region (13.1% from non-European Union [EU] and the European Economic Area [EEA] countries). Compared with isolates from natives, isolates from foreign-born had a similar level (p>0.05) of azithromycin resistance (7.5% vs 7.2%), ciprofloxacin resistance (50.0% vs 46.3%) and of decreased susceptibility to ceftriaxone (1.9% vs 2.8%); a lower rate of cefixime resistance (5.7% vs 3.6%, p=0.02), and a higher proportion of isolates producing penicillinase (8.4% vs 11.7%, p=0.02). Among isolates from persons born outside EU/EEA, the level of decreased susceptibility to ceftriaxone was higher (1.8% vs 3.5%, p=0.02), particularly in those from the WHO Eastern Mediterranean Region and non-EU/EEA WHO European countries (1.9% vs 9.6% and 8.7%, respectively, p<0.01). In multivariable analysis, foreign-born patients with AMR isolates were more likely to be from non-EU/EEA WHO European countries (adjusted OR [aOR]: 3.2, 95% CI 1.8 to 5.8), WHO Eastern Mediterranean countries (aOR: 1.8, 95% CI 1.1 to 3.3) and heterosexual males (aOR: 1.8, 95% CI 1.2 to 2.7).

Conclusions

Importation of AMR strains remains an important threat in the EU/EEA. Research to improve understanding of sexual networks within foreign born and sexual tourism populations could help to inform effective tailor-made interventions. The Euro-GASP demonstrates the public health value of quality-assured surveillance of gonococcal AMR and the need for strengthened AMR surveillance, particularly in the non-EU/EEA WHO European Region.

Whole genome sequencing snapshot of multi-drug resistant Klebsiella pneumoniae strains from hospitals and receiving wastewater treatment plants in Southern Romania

We report on the genomic characterization of 47 multi-drug resistant, carbapenem resistant and ESBL-producing K. pneumoniae isolates from the influent (I) and effluent (E) of three wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) and from Romanian hospital units which are discharging the wastewater in the sampled WWTPs. The K. pneumoniae whole genome sequences were analyzed for antibiotic resistance genes (ARGs), virulence genes and sequence types (STs) in order to compare their distribution in C, I and E samples. Both clinical and environmental samples harbored prevalent and widely distributed ESBL genes, i.e. bla_SHV, bla_OXA, bla_TEM and bla_{CTX M}. The most prevalent carbapenemase genes were bla_NDM-1, bla_OXA-48 and bla_KPC-2. They were found in all types of isolates, while bla_OXA-162, a rare bla_OXA-48 variant, was found exclusively in water samples. A higher diversity of carbapenemases genes was seen in wastewater isolates. The aminoglycoside modifying enzymes (AME) genes found in all types of samples were aac(6’), ant(2'')Ia, aph(3'), aaD, aac(3) and aph(6). Quinolone resistance gene qnrS1 and the multi-drug resistance oqxA/B pump gene were found in all samples, while qnrD and qnrB were associated to aquatic isolates. The antiseptics resistance gene qacEdelta1 was found in all samples, while qacE was detected exclusively in the clinical ones. Trimethroprim-sulfamethoxazole (dfrA, sul1 and sul2), tetracyclines (tetA and tetD) and fosfomycin (fosA6, known to be located on a transpozon) resistance genes were found in all samples, while for choramphenicol and macrolides some ARGs were detected in all samples (catA1 and catB3 / mphA), while other (catA2, cmIA5 and aac(6’)Ib / mphE and msrE) only in wastewater samples. The rifampin resistance genes arr2 and 3 (both carried by class I integrons) were detected only in water samples. The highly prevalent ARGs preferentially associating with aquatic versus clinical samples could ascribe potential markers for the aquatic (bla_SHV-145, qacEdelta1, sul1, aadA1, aadA2) and clinical (bla_OXA-1, bla_SHV-106,bla_TEM-150, aac(3)Iia, dfrA14, oqxA10; oqxB17,catB3, tetD) reservoirs of AR. Moreover, some ARGs (oqxA10; bla_SHV-145; bla_SHV-100, aac(6')Il, aph(3')VI, armA, arr2, cmlA5, bla_CMY-4, mphE, msrE, oqxB13, bla_OXA-10) showing decreased prevalence in influent versus effluent wastewater samples could be used as markers for the efficiency of the WWTPs in eliminating AR bacteria and ARGs. The highest number of virulence genes (75) was recorded for the I samples, while for E and C samples it was reduced to half. The most prevalent belong to three functional groups: adherence (fim genes), iron acquisition (ent, fep, fyu, irp and ybt genes) and the secretion system (omp genes). However, none of the genes associated with hypervirulent K. pneumoniae have been found. A total of 14 STs were identified. The most prevalent clones were ST101, ST219 in clinical samples and ST258, ST395 in aquatic isolates. These STs were also the most frequently associated with integrons. ST45 and ST485 were exclusively associated with I samples, ST11, ST35, ST364 with E and ST1564 with C samples. The less frequent ST17 and ST307 aquatic isolates harbored bla_OXA-162, which was co-expressed in our strains with bla_CTX-M-15 and bla_OXA-1.

National Scientific Funding for Interdisciplinary Research: A Comparison Study of Infectious Diseases in the US and EU

Infectious diseases have been continuously and increasingly threatening human health and welfare due to a variety of factors such as globalisation, environmental, demographic changes, and emerging pathogens. In order to establish an interdisciplinary approach for coordinating R&D via funding, it is imperative to discover research trends in the field. In this paper, we apply machine learning methodologies and network analyses to understand how the European Union (EU) and the United States (US) have invested their funding in infectious diseases research utilising an interdisciplinary approach. The purpose of this paper is to use public R&D project data as data and to grasp the research trends of epidemic diseases in the US and EU through scientometric analysis.

Vector-borne diseases and climate change: a European perspective

Climate change has already impacted the transmission of a wide range of vector-borne diseases in Europe, and it will continue to do so in the coming decades. Climate change has been implicated in the observed shift of ticks to elevated altitudes and latitudes, notably including the Ixodes ricinus tick species that is a vector for Lyme borreliosis and tick-borne encephalitis. Climate change is also thought to have been a factor in the expansion of other important disease vectors in Europe: Aedes albopictus (the Asian tiger mosquito), which transmits diseases such as Zika, dengue and chikungunya, and Phlebotomus sandfly species, which transmits diseases including Leishmaniasis. In addition, highly elevated temperatures in the summer of 2010 have been associated with an epidemic of West Nile Fever in Southeast Europe and subsequent outbreaks have been linked to summer temperature anomalies. Future climate-sensitive health impacts are challenging to project quantitatively, in part due to the intricate interplay between non-climatic and climatic drivers, weather-sensitive pathogens and climate-change adaptation. Moreover, globalisation and international air travel contribute to pathogen and vector dispersion internationally. Nevertheless, monitoring forecasts of meteorological conditions can help detect epidemic precursors of vector-borne disease outbreaks and serve as early warning systems for risk reduction.

Lessons from History

Resilience has a lengthy history of practice and implementation for events of extreme consequence and high uncertainty. One of the clearest cases of embryonic resilience thinking includes Medieval Venice, which was forced to grapple with the recurring threat of plague that threatened to destroy the fabric of European society and cripple the juggernaut of Venetian maritime trade (Linkov et al. 2014a, b, c, d, e; Lane 1973). This early resilience thinking did not fully inoculate Venetian society from the ravages of disease—on the contrary, limitations of medical knowledge and border control allowed for outbreaks throughout the early modern era—yet it did allow Venetian policymakers to begin to address the question of how to combat deadly disease. The cumulative successes in reducing disease incidence and spread throughout the city and its dependent settlements eventually brought policymakers to embrace resilience thinking for other unrelated projects ranging from climate change to land reclamation efforts—all centered on the idea of strengthening Venetian social, economic, and cultural capabilities in the midst of an uncertain future (Vergano and Nunes 2007; Linkov et al. 2014a, b, c, d, e). This all goes to show that while resilience thinking and resilience analysis are growing buzzwords in the early twenty-first century, their roots go back centuries before even the printing press or functional medicine.

Emerging Mosquito-Borne Threats and the Response from European and Eastern Mediterranean Countries

Mosquito-borne viruses are the cause of some of the greatest burdens to human health worldwide, particularly in tropical regions where both human populations and mosquito numbers are abundant. Due to a combination of anthropogenic change, including the effects on global climate and wildlife migration there is strong evidence that temperate regions are undergoing repeated introduction of mosquito-borne viruses and the re-emergence of viruses that previously were not detected by surveillance. In Europe, the repeated introductions of West Nile and Usutu viruses have been associated with bird migration from Africa, whereas the autochthonous transmission of chikungunya and dengue viruses has been driven by a combination of invasive mosquitoes and rapid transcontinental travel by infected humans. In addition to an increasing number of humans at risk, livestock and wildlife, are also at risk of infection and disease. This in turn can affect international trade and species diversity, respectively. Addressing these challenges requires a range of responses both at national and international level. Increasing the understanding of mosquito-borne transmission of viruses and the development of rapid detection methods and appropriate therapeutics (vaccines / antivirals) all form part of this response. The aim of this review is to consider the range of mosquito-borne viruses that threaten public health in Europe and the eastern Mediterranean, and the national response of a number of countries facing different levels of threat.

Pathogeography: leveraging the biogeography of human infectious diseases for global health management

Biogeography is an implicit and fundamental component of almost every dimension of modern biology, from natural selection and speciation to invasive species and biodiversity management. However, biogeography has rarely been integrated into human or veterinary medicine nor routinely leveraged for global health management. Here we review the theory and application of biogeography to the research and management of human infectious diseases, an integration we refer to as 'pathogeography'. Pathogeography represents a promising framework for understanding and decomposing the spatial distributions, diversity patterns and emergence risks of human infectious diseases into interpretable components of dynamic socio-ecological systems. Analytical tools from biogeography are already helping to improve our understanding of individual infectious disease distributions and the processes that shape them in space and time. At higher levels of organization, biogeographical studies of diseases are rarer but increasing, improving our ability to describe and explain patterns that emerge at the level of disease communities (e.g. co-occurrence, diversity patterns, biogeographic regionalisation). Even in a highly globalized world most human infectious diseases remain constrained in their geographic distributions by ecological barriers to the dispersal or establishment of their causal pathogens, reservoir hosts and/or vectors. These same processes underpin the spatial arrangement of other taxa, such as mammalian biodiversity, providing a strong empirical 'prior' with which to assess the potential distributions of infectious diseases when data on their occurrence is unavailable or limited. In the absence of quality data, generalized biogeographic patterns could provide the earliest (and in some cases the only) insights into the potential distributions of many poorly known or emerging, or as-yet-unknown, infectious disease risks. Encouraging more community ecologists and biogeographers to collaborate with health professionals (and vice versa) has the potential to improve our understanding of infectious disease systems and identify novel management strategies to improve local, global and planetary health.

Best practices in ranking communicable disease threats: a literature review, 2015

The threat of serious, cross-border communicable disease outbreaks in Europe poses a significant challenge to public health and emergency preparedness because the relative likelihood of these threats and the pathogens involved are constantly shifting in response to a range of changing disease drivers. To inform strategic planning by enabling effective resource allocation to manage the consequences of communicable disease outbreaks, it is useful to be able to rank and prioritise pathogens. This paper reports on a literature review which identifies and evaluates the range of methods used for risk ranking. Searches were performed across biomedical and grey literature databases, supplemented by reference harvesting and citation tracking. Studies were selected using transparent inclusion criteria and underwent quality appraisal using a bespoke checklist based on the AGREE II criteria. Seventeen studies were included in the review, covering five methodologies. A narrative analysis of the selected studies suggests that no single methodology was superior. However, many of the methods shared common components, around which a 'best-practice' framework was formulated. This approach is intended to help inform decision makers' choice of an appropriate risk-ranking study design.

Determinants and Drivers of Infectious Disease Threat Events in Europe

Infectious disease threat events (IDTEs) are increasing in frequency worldwide. We analyzed underlying drivers of 116 IDTEs detected in Europe during 2008-2013 by epidemic intelligence at the European Centre of Disease Prevention and Control. Seventeen drivers were identified and categorized into 3 groups: globalization and environment, sociodemographic, and public health systems. A combination of >2 drivers was responsible for most IDTEs. The driver category globalization and environment contributed to 61% of individual IDTEs, and the top 5 individual drivers of all IDTEs were travel and tourism, food and water quality, natural environment, global trade, and climate. Hierarchical cluster analysis of all drivers identified travel and tourism as a distinctly separate driver. Monitoring and modeling such disease drivers can help anticipate future IDTEs and strengthen control measures. More important, intervening directly on these underlying drivers can diminish the likelihood of the occurrence of an IDTE and reduce the associated human and economic costs.

Determinants and Drivers of Infectious Disease Threat Events in Europe

Globalization and environment, the most frequent underlying drivers, should be targeted for interventions to prevent such events.

Infectious disease threat events (IDTEs) are increasing in frequency worldwide. We analyzed underlying drivers of 116 IDTEs detected in Europe during 2008–2013 by epidemic intelligence at the European Centre of Disease Prevention and Control. Seventeen drivers were identified and categorized into 3 groups: globalization and environment, sociodemographic, and public health systems. A combination of >2 drivers was responsible for most IDTEs. The driver category globalization and environment contributed to 61% of individual IDTEs, and the top 5 individual drivers of all IDTEs were travel and tourism, food and water quality, natural environment, global trade, and climate. Hierarchical cluster analysis of all drivers identified travel and tourism as a distinctly separate driver. Monitoring and modeling such disease drivers can help anticipate future IDTEs and strengthen control measures. More important, intervening directly on these underlying drivers can diminish the likelihood of the occurrence of an IDTE and reduce the associated human and economic costs.

Navigable rivers facilitated the spread and recurrence of plague in pre-industrial Europe

Infectious diseases have become a rising challenge to mankind in a globalizing world. Yet, little is known about the inland transmission of infectious diseases in history. In this study, we based on the spatio-temporal information of 5559 plague (Yersinia pestis) outbreaks in Europe and its neighboring regions in AD1347–1760 to statistically examine the connection between navigable rivers and plague outbreak. Our results showed that 95.5% of plague happened within 10 km proximity of navigable rivers. Besides, the count of plague outbreak was positively correlated with the width of river and negatively correlated with the distance between city and river. This association remained robust in different regression model specifications. An increase of 100 m in the width of river and a shortening of 1 km distance between city and river resulted in 9 and 0.96 more plague outbreaks in our study period, respectively. Such relationship shows a declining trend over our study period due to the expansion of city and technological advancement in overland transportation. This study elucidates the key role of navigable river in the dissemination of plague in historical Europe.

Observed and projected drivers of emerging infectious diseases in Europe

Emerging infectious diseases are of international concern because of the potential for, and impact of, pandemics; however, they are difficult to predict. To identify the drivers of disease emergence, we analyzed infectious disease threat events (IDTEs) detected through epidemic intelligence collected at the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) between 2008 and 2013, and compared the observed results with a 2008 ECDC foresight study of projected drivers of future IDTEs in Europe. Among 10 categories of IDTEs, foodborne and waterborne IDTEs were the most common, vaccine-preventable IDTEs caused the highest number of cases, and airborne IDTEs caused the most deaths. Observed drivers for each IDTE were sorted into three main groups: globalization and environmental drivers contributed to 61% of all IDTEs, public health system drivers contributed to 21%, and social and demographic drivers to 18%. A multiple logistic regression analysis showed that four of the top five drivers for observed IDTEs were in the globalization and environment group. In the observational study, the globalization and environment group was related to all IDTE categories, but only to five of eight categories in the foresight study. Directly targeting these drivers with public health interventions may diminish the chances of IDTE occurrence from the outset.

Perspectives and experiences of new migrants on health screening in Sweden

BACKGROUND

In Sweden, migrants from countries considered to have a high burden of certain infectious diseases are offered health screening to prevent the spread of these diseases, but also identify their health needs. However, very little is known about their experiences and perceptions about the screening process. This study aimed at exploring these perceptions and experiences in order to inform policy and clinical practice.

METHOD

Using an interpretive description framework, 26 new migrants were interviewed between April and June 2013 in four Swedish counties. Thematic analysis was used to analyze data.

RESULTS

The three themes developed include: new country, new practices; new requirements in the new country; and unmet needs and expectations. Participants described what it meant for them to come to a new country with a foreign language, new ways of communicating with caregivers/authorities and being offered health screening without clarification. Participants perceived health screening as a requirement from the authorities to be fulfilled by all newcomers but conceded that it benefits equally the host society and themselves. However, they also expressed concern over the involvement of the Migration Board staff and feared possible collaboration with health service to their detriment. They further stated that the screening program fell short of their expectations as it mainly focused on identifying infectious diseases and overlooked their actual health needs. Finally, they expressed frustration over delay in screening, poor living conditions in reception centers and the restrictive entitlement to care.

CONCLUSIONS

Migrants are aware of their vulnerability and the need to undergo health screening though they view it as an official requirement. Thus, those who underwent the screening were more concerned about residency rather than the actual benefits of screening. The issues highlighted in this study may limit access to and uptake of the screening service, and compromise its effectiveness. To maximize the uptake: (1) linguistically and culturally adapted information is needed, (2) other screening approaches should be tried, (3) trained medical interpreters should be used, (4) a holistic and human right approach should be applied, (5) the involvement of migration staff should be reconsidered to avoid confusion and worries. Finally, to improve the effectiveness, (6) all migrants from targeted countries should be offered screening and efforts should be taken to improve the health literacy of migrants and the living conditions in reception centers.

Using the scenario method in the context of health and health care--a scoping review

BACKGROUND

The scenario technique is a method for future research and for strategic planning. Today, it includes both qualitative and quantitative elements. The aims of this scoping review are to give an overview of the application of the scenario method in the fields of health care and to make suggestions for better reporting in future scenario projects.

METHODS

Between January 2013 and October 2013 we conducted a systematic search in the databases Medline, Embase, PsycInfo, Eric, The Cochrane Library, Scopus, Web of Science, and Cinahl since inception for the term 'scenario(s)' in combination with other terms, e.g. method, model, and technique. Our search was not restricted by date or language. In addition, we screened the reference lists of the included articles.

RESULTS

A total of 576 bibliographical records were screened. After removing duplicates and three rounds of screening, 41 articles covering 38 different scenario projects were included for the final analysis. Nine of the included articles addressed disease related issues, led by mental health and dementia (n = 4), and followed by cancer (n = 3). Five scenario projects focused on public health issues at an organizational level and five focused on the labor market for different health care professionals. In addition, four projects dealt with health care 'in general', four with the field of biotechnology and personalized medicine, and additional four with other technology developments. Some of the scenario projects suffered from poor reporting of methodological aspects.

CONCLUSIONS

Despite its potential, use of the scenario method seems to be published rarely in comparison to other methods such as the Delphi-technique, at least in the field of health care. This might be due to the complexity of the methodological approach. Individual project methods and activities vary widely and are poorly reported. Improved criteria are required for reporting of scenario project methods. With improved standards and greater transparency, the scenario method will be a good tool for scientific health care planning and strategic decision-making in public health.

After the epidemiologic transition: a reassessment of mortality from infectious diseases among over-65s in France and Italy

OBJECTIVES

To assess more accurately the contribution of infectious diseases (IDs) to mortality at age 65+.

METHODS

We use cause-of-death data for France and Italy in 2009. In addition to chapter I of the 10th International Classification of Diseases (ICD-10), our list of IDs includes numerous diseases classified in other chapters. We compute mortality rates considering all death certificate entries (underlying and contributing causes).

RESULTS

Mortality rates at age 65+ based on our extended list are more than three times higher than rates based solely on ICD-10 chapter I. IDs are frequently contributing causes of death. In France, the share of deaths at age 65+ involving an ID as underlying cause increases from 2.1 to 7.3 % with the extended list, and to 20.8 % when contributing causes are also considered. For Italy, these percentages are 1.4, 4.2 and 18.7 %, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Publicly available statistics underestimate the contribution of IDs to the over-65s' mortality. Old age is a risk factor for IDs, and these diseases are more difficult to treat at advanced ages. Health policies should develop targeted actions for that population.

How resilient is the United States' food system to pandemics?

Rarely have studies focused on the second- and third-order effects of pandemics. Limiting the disruption of critical infrastructures during a pandemic is important for the survival and health of society (i.e., electricity, water, and food) as most medical and public health responses to a pandemic depend on these infrastructures. The studies that have looked at this issue have highlighted alarming gaps in preparedness. This study used a system dynamics model to demonstrate the likely effects of a pandemic on the USA's food system. The model reveals that a severe pandemic with greater than a 25 % reduction in labor availability can create significant and widespread food shortages. The Ebola epidemic that began in 2014 has caused severe food shortages in West Africa, which are similar to the effects that this model predicts in the USA. The likely effects of the reduction in the amount of available food are difficult to specifically predict; however, it is likely to have severe negative consequences on society. The resilience of the food system must be improved against this hazard and others.

A plausible worst-case scenario of increasing multidrug resistance as a tool for assessing societal risks and capabilities in Sweden

A "plausible worst-case scenario" of a gradually increasing level of multidrug-resistant bacteria (carbapenem-resistant E. coli) in the human population was developed and used to study how Swedish authorities would manage this situation and to identify preventive measures that could be taken. Key findings include: (1) a scenario in which 5% of the population in southern Sweden become carriers of carbapenem-resistant E. coli is possible or even likely in 10 to 15 years; (2) it is not clear when and how the increase of E. coli resistant to carbapenems as in the scenario would be detected in the general human population; (3) identified negative consequences of the scenario on society were primarily due to increased demands on the healthcare system and potential consequences for food-producing animals, food safety, and environmental health; and (4) a number of preventive and mitigation measures were suggested, including initiating long-term screening programs for public and animal health as well as for food and water production to monitor increasing levels of carbapenem resistance. Strategies and plans to prevent and handle future increasing prevalence of multidrug-resistant bacteria need to be developed.

Prototype early warning systems for vector-borne diseases in Europe

Globalization and environmental change, social and demographic determinants and health system capacity are significant drivers of infectious diseases which can also act as epidemic precursors. Thus, monitoring changes in these drivers can help anticipate, or even forecast, an upsurge of infectious diseases. The European Environment and Epidemiology (E3) Network has been built for this purpose and applied to three early warning case studies: (1) The environmental suitability of malaria transmission in Greece was mapped in order to target epidemiological and entomological surveillance and vector control activities. Malaria transmission in these areas was interrupted in 2013 through such integrated preparedness and response activities. (2) Since 2010, recurrent West Nile fever outbreaks have ensued in South/eastern Europe. Temperature deviations from a thirty year average proved to be associated with the 2010 outbreak. Drivers of subsequent outbreaks were computed through multivariate logistic regression models and included monthly temperature anomalies for July and a normalized water index. (3) Dengue is a tropical disease but sustained transmission has recently emerged in Madeira. Autochthonous transmission has also occurred repeatedly in France and in Croatia mainly due to travel importation. The risk of dengue importation into Europe in 2010 was computed with the volume of international travelers from dengue affected areas worldwide.These prototype early warning systems indicate that monitoring drivers of infectious diseases can help predict vector-borne disease threats.

The interconnected and cross-border nature of risks posed by infectious diseases

Infectious diseases can constitute public health emergencies of international concern when a pathogen arises, acquires new characteristics, or is deliberately released, leading to the potential for loss of human lives as well as societal disruption. A wide range of risk drivers are now known to lead to and/or exacerbate the emergence and spread of infectious disease, including global trade and travel, the overuse of antibiotics, intensive agriculture, climate change, high population densities, and inadequate infrastructures, such as water treatment facilities. Where multiple risk drivers interact, the potential impact of a disease outbreak is amplified. The varying temporal and geographic frequency with which infectious disease events occur adds yet another layer of complexity to the issue. Mitigating the emergence and spread of infectious disease necessitates mapping and prioritising the interdependencies between public health and other sectors. Conversely, during an international public health emergency, significant disruption occurs not only to healthcare systems but also to a potentially wide range of sectors, including trade, tourism, energy, civil protection, transport, agriculture, and so on. At the same time, dealing with a disease outbreak may require a range of critical sectors for support. There is a need to move beyond narrow models of risk to better account for the interdependencies between health and other sectors so as to be able to better mitigate and respond to the risks posed by emerging infectious disease.

The impact of climate change on infectious disease transmission: perceptions of CDC health professionals in Shanxi Province, China

There have been increasing concerns about the challenge of emerging and re-emerging infectious diseases due to climate change, especially in developing countries including China. Health professionals play a significant role in the battle to control and prevent infectious diseases. This study therefore aims to investigate the perceptions and attitudes of health professionals at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) in different levels in China, and to consider adaptation measures to deal with the challenge of climate change. In 2013, a cross-sectional questionnaire survey was undertaken among 314 staff in CDCs in Shanxi Province, China, whose routine work involves disease control and prevention. Data were analyzed using descriptive methods and logistic regression. A majority of the CDC staff were aware of the health risks from climate change, especially its impacts on infectious disease transmission in their jurisdictions, and believed climate change might bring about both temporal and spatial change in transmission patterns. It was thought that adaptation measures should be established including: strengthening/improving currently existing disease surveillance systems and vector monitoring; building CDC capacity in terms of infrastructure and in-house health professional training; development and refinement of relevant legislation, policies and guidelines; better coordination among various government departments; the involvement of the community in infectious disease interventions; and collaborative research with other institutions. This study provides a snapshot of the understanding of CDC staff regarding climate change risks relevant to infectious diseases and adaptation in China. Results may help inform future efforts to develop adaptation measures to minimize infectious disease risks due to climate change.

European monitoring systems and data for assessing environmental and climate impacts on human infectious diseases

Surveillance is critical to understanding the epidemiology and control of infectious diseases. The growing concern over climate and other drivers that may increase infectious disease threats to future generations has stimulated a review of the surveillance systems and environmental data sources that might be used to assess future health impacts from climate change in Europe. We present an overview of organizations, agencies and institutions that are responsible for infectious disease surveillance in Europe. We describe the surveillance systems, tracking tools, communication channels, information exchange and outputs in light of environmental and climatic drivers of infectious diseases. We discuss environmental and climatic data sets that lend themselves to epidemiological analysis. Many of the environmental data sets have a relatively uniform quality across EU Member States because they are based on satellite measurements or EU funded FP6 or FP7 projects with full EU coverage. Case-reporting systems for surveillance of infectious diseases should include clear and consistent case definitions and reporting formats that are geo-located at an appropriate resolution. This will allow linkage to environmental, social and climatic sources that will enable risk assessments, future threat evaluations, outbreak management and interventions to reduce disease burden.

Indicators for tracking European vulnerabilities to the risks of infectious disease transmission due to climate change

A wide range of infectious diseases may change their geographic range, seasonality and incidence due to climate change, but there is limited research exploring health vulnerabilities to climate change. In order to address this gap, pan-European vulnerability indices were developed for 2035 and 2055, based upon the definition vulnerability = impact/adaptive capacity. Future impacts were projected based upon changes in temperature and precipitation patterns, whilst adaptive capacity was developed from the results of a previous pan-European study. The results were plotted via ArcGISTM to EU regional (NUTS2) levels for 2035 and 2055 and ranked according to quintiles. The models demonstrate regional variations with respect to projected climate-related infectious disease challenges that they will face, and with respect to projected vulnerabilities after accounting for regional adaptive capacities. Regions with higher adaptive capacities, such as in Scandinavia and central Europe, will likely be better able to offset any climate change impacts and are thus generally less vulnerable than areas with lower adaptive capacities. The indices developed here provide public health planners with information to guide prioritisation of activities aimed at strengthening regional preparedness for the health impacts of climate change. There are, however, many limitations and uncertainties when modeling health vulnerabilities. To further advance the field, the importance of variables such as coping capacity and governance should be better accounted for, and there is the need to systematically collect and analyse the interlinkages between the numerous and ever-expanding environmental, socioeconomic, demographic and epidemiologic datasets so as to promote the public health capacity to detect, forecast, and prepare for the health threats due to climate change.

Antimicrobial resistance and stewardship in long-term care settings

Infections and antimicrobial resistance (AMR) in long-term care facilities (LTCFs) are a public health challenge and a future infectious disease threat. More and more data show the dimension and impact of AMR and of inappropriate use of antimicrobials in this setting. Recently, the spread of carbapenemase-producing Enterobacteriaceae has provided new insights into the dangerous role the long-term care sector may play in the AMR problem in a community. Implementation of effective infection and surveillance control programs in LTCFs is challenging, due to scarce resources (personnel, expertise, diagnostic and supportive services), and no or poor coordination of medical care. However, interventions in LTCFs have been proven to be effective: inappropriate use of antibiotics for asymptomatic bacteriuria may be reduced; hand hygiene compliance may be improved; and the transmission of multidrug-resistant organisms may be halted. This paper reviews the most recent epidemiological information on this issue, providing references to valuable intervention programs.

Climatic suitability of Aedes albopictus in Europe referring to climate change projections: comparison of mechanistic and correlative niche modelling approaches

The Asian tiger mosquito, Aedes albopictus, is capable of transmitting a broad range of viruses to humans. Since its introduction at the end of the 20th century, it has become well established in large parts of southern Europe. As future expansion as a result of climate change can be expected, determining the current and projected future climatic suitability of this invasive mosquito in Europe is of interest. Several studies have tried to detect the potential habitats for this species, but differing data sources and modelling approaches must be considered when interpreting the findings. Here, various modelling methodologies are compared with special emphasis on model set-up and study design. Basic approaches and model algorithms for the projection of spatio-temporal trends within the 21st century differ substantially. Applied methods range from mechanistic models (e.g. overlay of climatic constraints based on geographic information systems or rather process-based approaches) to correlative niche models. We conclude that spatial characteristics such as introduction gateways and dispersal pathways need to be considered. Laboratory experiments addressing the climatic constraints of the mosquito are required for improved modelling results. However, the main source of uncertainty remains the insufficient knowledge about the species' ability to adapt to novel environments.

Climate change effects on Chikungunya transmission in Europe: geospatial analysis of vector's climatic suitability and virus' temperature requirements

BACKGROUND

Chikungunya was, from the European perspective, considered to be a travel-related tropical mosquito-borne disease prior to the first European outbreak in Northern Italy in 2007. This was followed by cases of autochthonous transmission reported in South-eastern France in 2010. Both events occurred after the introduction, establishment and expansion of the Chikungunya-competent and highly invasive disease vector Aedes albopictus (Asian tiger mosquito) in Europe. In order to assess whether these outbreaks are indicative of the beginning of a trend or one-off events, there is a need to further examine the factors driving the potential transmission of Chikungunya in Europe. The climatic suitability, both now and in the future, is an essential starting point for such an analysis.

METHODS

The climatic suitability for Chikungunya outbreaks was determined by using bioclimatic factors that influence, both vector and, pathogen. Climatic suitability for the European distribution of the vector Aedes albopictus was based upon previous correlative environmental niche models. Climatic risk classes were derived by combining climatic suitability for the vector with known temperature requirements for pathogen transmission, obtained from outbreak regions. In addition, the longest potential intra-annual season for Chikungunya transmission was estimated for regions with expected vector occurrences.In order to analyse spatio-temporal trends for risk exposure and season of transmission in Europe, climate change impacts are projected for three time-frames (2011-2040, 2041-2070 and 2071-2100) and two climate scenarios (A1B and B1) from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). These climatic projections are based on regional climate model COSMO-CLM, which builds on the global model ECHAM5.

RESULTS

European areas with current and future climatic suitability of Chikungunya transmission are identified. An increase in risk is projected for Western Europe (e.g. France and Benelux-States) in the first half of the 21st century and from mid-century onwards for central parts of Europe (e.g. Germany). Interestingly, the southernmost parts of Europe do not generally provide suitable conditions in these projections. Nevertheless, many Mediterranean regions will persist to be climatically suitable for transmission. Overall, the highest risk of transmission by the end of the 21st century was projected for France, Northern Italy and the Pannonian Basin (East-Central Europe). This general tendency is depicted in both, the A1B and B1 climate change scenarios.

CONCLUSION

In order to guide preparedness for further outbreaks, it is crucial to anticipate risk as to identify areas where specific public health measures, such as surveillance and vector control, can be implemented. However, public health practitioners need to be aware that climate is only one factor driving the transmission of vector-borne disease.

Environmental drivers of West Nile fever epidemiology in Europe and Western Asia--a review

Abiotic and biotic conditions are both important determinants of West Nile Fever (WNF) epidemiology. Ambient temperature plays an important role in the growth rates of vector populations, the interval between blood meals, viral replication rates and transmission of West Nile Virus (WNV). The contribution of precipitation is more complex and less well understood. In this paper we discuss impacts of climatic parameters (temperature, relative humidity, precipitation) and other environmental drivers (such as bird migration, land use) on WNV transmission in Europe. WNV recently became established in southeastern Europe, with a large outbreak in the summer of 2010 and recurrent outbreaks in 2011 and 2012. Abundant competent mosquito vectors, bridge vectors, infected (viremic) migrating and local (amplifying) birds are all important characteristics of WNV transmission. In addition, certain key climatic factors, such as increased ambient temperatures, and by extension climate change, may also favor WNF transmission, and they should be taken into account when evaluating the risk of disease spread in the coming years. Monitoring epidemic precursors of WNF, such as significant temperature deviations in high risk areas, could be used to trigger vector control programs and public education campaigns.

Identification of hotspots in the European union for the introduction of four zoonotic arboviroses by live animal trade

Live animal trade is considered a major mode of introduction of viruses from enzootic foci into disease-free areas. Due to societal and behavioural changes, some wild animal species may nowadays be considered as pet species. The species diversity of animals involved in international trade is thus increasing. This could benefit pathogens that have a broad host range such as arboviruses. The objective of this study was to analyze the risk posed by live animal imports for the introduction, in the European Union (EU), of four arboviruses that affect human and horses: Eastern and Western equine encephalomyelitis, Venezuelan equine encephalitis and Japanese encephalitis. Importation data for a five-years period (2005-2009, extracted from the EU TRACES database), environmental data (used as a proxy for the presence of vectors) and horses and human population density data (impacting the occurrence of clinical cases) were combined to derive spatially explicit risk indicators for virus introduction and for the potential consequences of such introductions. Results showed the existence of hotspots where the introduction risk was the highest in Belgium, in the Netherlands and in the north of Italy. This risk was higher for Eastern equine encephalomyelitis (EEE) than for the three other diseases. It was mainly attributed to exotic pet species such as rodents, reptiles or cage birds, imported in small-sized containments from a wide variety of geographic origins. The increasing species and origin diversity of these animals may have in the future a strong impact on the risk of introduction of arboviruses in the EU.

Climate change and microbiological water quality at California beaches

Daily microbiological water quality and precipitation data spanning 6 years were collected from monitoring stations at southern California beaches. Daily precipitation projected for the twenty-first century was derived from downscaled CNRM CM3 global climate model. A time series model of Enterococcus concentrations that was driven by precipitation, matched the general trend of empirical water quality data; there was a positive association between precipitation and microbiological water contamination (P < 0.001). Future projections of precipitation result in a decrease in predicted Enterococcus levels through the majority of the twenty-first century. Nevertheless, variability of storminess due to climate change calls for innovative adaptation and surveillance strategies.