Addict death rates during a four-year posttreatment follow-up

Association of History of Injection Drug Use with External Cause-Related Mortality Among Persons Linked to HIV Care in an Urban Clinic, 2001-2015

High mortality rates among persons with HIV with a history of injection drug use (PWID) are thought to be driven in part by higher rates of external cause-related mortality. We followed 4796 persons aged 18-70 engaged in continuity HIV care from 2001 to 2015 until death or administrative censoring. We compared cause-specific (csHR) and subdistribution hazards (sdHR) of death due to external causes among PWID and persons who acquired their HIV infection through other routes (non-IDU). We standardized estimates on age, sex, race, and HIV-related health status. The standardized csHR for external cause-related death was 3.57 (95% CI 2.39, 5.33), and the sdHR was 3.14 (95% CI 2.16, 4.55). The majority of external cause-related deaths were overdose-related and standardized sdHR was 4.02 (95% CI 2.40, 6.72). Absolute rate of suicide was low but the csHR for PWID compared to non-IDU was most elevated for suicide (6.50, 95% CI 1.51, 28.03). HIV-infected PWID are at a disproportionately increased risk of death due to external causes, particularly overdose and suicide.

Mortality Rates Among Substance Use Disorder Participants in Clinical Trials: Pooled Analysis of Twenty-Two Clinical Trials Within the National Drug Abuse Treatment Clinical Trials Network

BACKGROUND

Most substance use disorders (SUD) treatment clinical trials are too short and small to reliably estimate the incidence of rare events like death.

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this study is to estimate the overall mortality rates among a SUD treatment-seeking population by pooling participants from multiple clinical trials conducted through the National Institute on Drug Abuse (NIDA)-sponsored National Drug Abuse Treatment Clinical Trials Network (CTN).

PARTICIPANTS

Drug and or alcohol users (N=9866) who sought treatment and participated in one of the twenty-two CTN trials.

MEASUREMENTS

Data were collected through randomized clinical trials in national community treatment programs for SUD. Pooled analysis was performed to assess age- and gender-standardized mortality rate(s) (SM rate(s)), and mortality ratio(s) (SM ratio(s)) of CTN trial participants compared to the U.S. general population.

RESULTS

The age- and gender-SM rate among CTN trials participants was 1403 (95% CI: 862-2074) per 100,000 person years (PY) compared to 542 (95% CI: 541-543) per 100,000 PY among the U.S. general population in 2005. By gender, age-adjusted SM ratio for female CTN trial participants was over five times (SM ratio=5.35, 95% CI: 3.31-8.19)), and for male CTN trial participants, it was over three times (SM ratio=3.39, 95% CI: 2.25-4.90) higher than their gender comparable peers in the U.S. general population.

CONCLUSIONS

Age and gender-standardized mortality rates and ratios among NIDA CTN SUD treatment-seeking clinical trial participants are higher than the age and gender comparable U.S. general population. The overall mortality rates of CTN trial participants are similar to in-treatment mortality reported in large U.S. and non-U.S. cohorts of opioid users. Future analysis with additional CTN trial participants and risk times will improve the stability of estimates, especially within subgroups based on primary substance of abuse. These SUD mortality rates can be used to facilitate safety monitoring within SUD clinical trials.

Factors associated with mortality of HIV-positive clients receiving methadone maintenance treatment in China

BACKGROUND

Little is known about mortality of opiate users attending methadone maintenance treatment (MMT) clinics. We sought to investigate mortality and its predictors among human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-positive MMT clients.

METHODS

Records of 306 786 clients enrolled in China's MMT program from 24 March 2004 to 30 April 2011 were abstracted. Mortality rates were calculated for all HIV-positive antiretroviral treatment (ART)-naive and ART-experienced clients. Risk factors were examined using stratified proportional hazard ratios (HRs).

RESULTS

The observed mortality rate for all clients was 11.8/1000 person-years (PY, 95% confidence interval [CI], 11.5-12.1) and 57.2/1000 PY (CI, 54.9-59.4) for HIV-positive clients (n = 18 193). An increase in average methadone doses to >75 mg/day was associated with a 24% reduction in mortality (HR = 0.76, CI, .70-.82), a 48% reduction for ART-naive HIV-positive clients (HR = 0.52, CI, .42-.65), and a 47% reduction for ART-experienced HIV-positive clients (HR = 0.53, CI, .46-.62). Among ART-experienced clients, initiation of ART when the CD4(+) T-cell count was >300 cells/mm(3) (HR = 0.64, CI, .43-.94) was also associated with decreased risk of death.

CONCLUSIONS

We found high mortality rates among HIV-positive MMT clients, yet decreased risk of death, with earlier ART initiation and higher methadone doses. A higher daily methadone dose was associated with reduced mortality in both HIV-infected and HIV-uninfected clients, independent of ART.

Surviving drug addiction: the effect of treatment and abstinence on mortality

OBJECTIVES

We examined the relationships between substance abuse treatment, abstinence, and mortality in a sample of individuals entering treatment. We also estimated overall mortality rates and the extent to which they varied according to demographic, clinical severity, and treatment variables.

METHODS

We used data from a 9-year longitudinal study of 1326 adults entering substance abuse treatment on the west side of Chicago, of whom 131 died (11.0 per 1000 person-years). Baseline predictors, initial and long-term treatment response, and substance use patterns were used to predict mortality rates and time to mortality.

RESULTS

Older age, health problems, and substance use were associated with an increased risk of mortality, and higher percentages of time abstinent and longer durations of continuous abstinence were associated with a reduced risk of mortality. Treatment readmission in the first 6 months after baseline was related to an increased likelihood of abstinence, whereas readmission after 6 months was related to a decreased likelihood of abstinence, suggesting that treatment timing is significant.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings suggest the need to shift the addiction treatment field from an acute care model to a chronic disease management paradigm and the need for more aggressive screening, intervention, and addiction management over time.

Methadone maintenance dosing guideline for opioid dependence, a literature review

To date, methadone dosing is still an issue of debate and controversy among clinicians who are involved in methadone maintenance programs. The authors conducted a literature review to update clinicians about this issue and provide recommendations for proper methadone dosing. Studies eligible for inclusion in the review were retrieved from the PubMed database by searching for reports published between 1990 and September 2008 using the major medical subject headings Methadone (all fields) and dose. Only articles written in English were included. Additional reports were identified from the reference lists of retrieved articles and by manual review of the tables of contents of journals on drug of abuse included in the psychiatry and substance abuse subject category listing 2008 of the Journal Citation Reports. Abstracts of medical meetings were excluded. Twenty-four articles were included in the review. Twelve are randomized, controlled, or double-blind clinical trials, 10 are non-randomized and observational studies, and 2 are meta-analyses. Currently, the consensus is to have a goal for methadone dosing in the range of 60 to 100 mg daily. For patients who continue to use illicit opiates while prescribed this dose range, clinicians may consider doses greater than 100 mg daily. However, this is not the current consensus but rather is based on the limited promising data the authors have; it could be considered if the benefits outweigh the risks for some patients.

Mortality of intravenous drug users: attenders of the Wellington Drug Clinic, 1972-89

A mortality study of 997 patients registered for treatment at the Wellington Drug Clinic since 1971 was undertaken by examining the New Zealand death records. Sixty-seven known deaths were reported. The mortality rates were increased 11.5 times under the age of 25 years, and 5.8 times for age 25-34 years, but not significantly thereafter. There were 7 deaths from trauma, 8 from suicide, and 28 accidental deaths. Myocarditis was the cause of death in four cases. In the 28 drug-related deaths the principle drugs incriminated were dextropropoxyphene, barbiturates, chloral hydrate, methadone and other opiates. Twenty-one deaths were due to unrelated diseases. It was considered important to document mortality in intravenous drug users in the 'pre-HIV' era. This study demonstrates quite low death rates from opioid drugs themselves.

Benefits of retention in methadone maintenance and chronic medical conditions as risk factors for premature death among older heroin addicts

BACKGROUND

Methadone maintenance treatment reduces rates of premature mortality in heroin addicts. However, few published studies have addressed the effectiveness of treatment, mortality rates, or causes of death in older (geriatric) patients maintained on methadone. Identifying risk factors for premature mortality and potential targets for early intervention may reduce rates of premature mortality in older patients maintained on methadone.

METHODS

We conducted a retrospective chart review for patients enrolled in the methadone maintenance program at the Atlanta Veterans Affairs Medical Center. We reviewed the charts of 91 patients and collected the following information: demographics (age, gender, marital status, and race); composite score at admission on the Addiction Severity Index (ASI); most recent ASI score for alcohol use, drug use, and medical, psychiatric, family, legal, and employment problems; results of urine drug screens for opiates, cocaine, and benzodiazepines (first 4 screens after admission and last 4 screens); dose and duration of methadone treatment; HIV and hepatitis B and C status; tobacco smoking; presence of diabetes mellitus, hypertension, heart disease, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, or cancer; history of intravenous drug use; and missed primary care appointments (last five appointments).

RESULTS

A statistically significant association was found between diabetes mellitus and between liver and gastrointestinal cancer and premature mortality in this sample of older patients maintained on methadone (OR=30.79, p=0.008 for diabetes mellitus; OR=19.91, p=0.017 for cancer). Patients who remained in treatment showed statistically significant improvement in ASI scores for problems related to drug use and for psychiatric, medical, and legal problems. They showed a nonsignificant trend toward reduction of problems associated with alcohol use. The group of patients who dropped out of methadone treatment did not show statistically significant improvement on any area of the ASI except family problems. The group who remained in treatment also showed a statistically significant reduction in drug use when results of the first four and last four urine drug screens for opiates, cocaine, and benzodiazepines were compared (p<0.0001 for opiates and cocaine, p=0.02 for benzodiazepines).On the other hand, the group who dropped out of methadone treatment did not show any statistically significant reduction in drug use based on urine screens (p=0.05 for opiates, p=0.38 for cocaine, and p=0.53 for benzodiazepines).

CONCLUSIONS

The results presented here suggest potential targets for intervention related to lifestyle risk factors and comorbid medical conditions, such as nicotine dependence and diabetes mellitus, that may have the potential to improve health outcomes for older patients with opioid dependence.

Years of potential life lost among heroin addicts 33 years after treatment

OBJECTIVE

To examine premature mortality in terms of years of potential life lost (YPLL) among a cohort of long-term heroin addicts.

METHOD

This longitudinal, prospective study followed a cohort of 581 male heroin addicts in California for more than 33 years. In the latest follow-up conducted in 1996/97, 282 subjects (48.5%) were confirmed as deceased by death certificates. YPLL before age 65 years was calculated by causes of death. Ethnic differences in YPLL were assessed among Whites, Hispanics, and African Americans.

RESULTS

On average, addicts in this cohort lost 18.3 years (SD=10.7) of potential life before age 65. Of the total YPLL for the cohort, 22.3% of the years lost was due to heroin overdose, 14.0% due to chronic liver disease, and 10.2% to accidents. The total YPLL and YPLL by death cause in addict cohort were significantly higher than that of US population. The YPLL among African Americans was significantly lower than that among Whites or Hispanics.

CONCLUSION

The YPLL among addicts was much higher than that in the national population; within the cohort, premature mortality was higher among Whites and Hispanics compared to African American addicts.

Is the bipolar spectrum the psychopathological substrate of suicidality in heroin addicts?

BACKGROUND

To describe the prevalence and the risk factors of suicidal ideation in a cohort of Italian opioid addicts presenting for treatment.

METHOD

Systematic cross-sectional clinical data on suicidal ideation, socio-demographic variables, psychiatric status, social adjustment, status and history of addiction in 616 patients were gathered.

RESULTS

Suicidal thoughts during the past week were reported by 29.1%. Suicidal thoughts were more frequent in patients with bipolar spectrum diagnoses (OR = 1.42) and in patients with depressive and aggressive symptoms (multiple R = 0.47). The odds of having suicidal thoughts were also higher for subjects receiving public welfare benefits (OR = 1.69), unemployed patients (OR = 1.37), those with early onset of heroin dependence (OR = 1.36), living alone (OR = 1.33), and experiencing problems in organizing social contacts and leisure time (OR = 1.28).

CONCLUSION

Current suicidal ideation was a common feature of patients with opioid addiction. Depression and hostility as part of the bipolar spectrum - in the context of early-onset drug dependence, work and social/leisure problems - appear independently associated with suicidal ideation. Given the elevated rates of completed suicide in heroin addiction, these data have implications for preventing suicide in patients with this type of addiction. Prospective data are needed to further address this important clinical and public health agenda.

Life Expectancy and Productivity Loss Among Narcotics Addicts Thirty-Three Years After Index Treatment

This study computed the life expectancy of a cohort of male narcotics addicts followed for 33 years and assessed the productivity lost as a result of premature mortality. The future life expectancy was constructed for the narcotics addicts and for a comparable cohort from the general U.S. population. The average future life expectancy of the cohort was 18.84 years compared to 33.48 years for comparable U.S. males (t = 49.49, p < .00001). As a result of this premature mortality, the estimated monetary value of lost productivity was greater than 174 million dollars. The lives of heroin addicts were severely truncated at productive ages resulting in a loss of potential productivity that increases social and economic burdens.

Using cohort studies to estimate mortality among injecting drug users that is not attributable to AIDS

BACKGROUND

Injecting drug use (IDU) and associated mortality appear to be increasing in many parts of the world. IDU is an important factor in HIV transmission. In estimating AIDS mortality attributable to IDU, it is important to take account of premature mortality rates from other causes to ensure that AIDS related mortality among injecting drug users (IDUs) is not overestimated. The current review provides estimates of the excess non-AIDS mortality among IDUs.

METHOD

Searches were conducted with Medline, PsycINFO, and the Web of Science. The authors also searched reference lists of identified papers and an earlier literature review by English et al (1995). Crude mortality rates (CMRs) were derived from data on the number of deaths, period of follow up, and number of participants. In estimating the all-cause mortality, two rates were calculated: one that included all cohort studies identified in the search, and one that only included studies that reported on AIDS deaths in their cohort. This provided lower and upper mortality rates, respectively.

RESULTS

The current paper derived weighted mortality rates based upon cohort studies that included 179 885 participants, 1,219,422 person-years of observation, and 16,593 deaths. The weighted crude AIDS mortality rate from studies that reported AIDS deaths was approximately 0.78% per annum. The median estimated non-AIDS mortality rate was 1.08% per annum.

CONCLUSIONS

Illicit drug users have a greatly increased risk of premature death and mortality due to AIDS forms a significant part of that increased risk; it is, however, only part of that risk. Future work needs to examine mortality rates among IDUs in developing countries, and collect data on the relation between HIV and increased mortality due to all causes among this group.

Menstrual cycle length during methadone maintenance

AIMS

While the menstrual disruption of heroin has been demonstrated, there are few published data concerning methadone maintenance and menstrual function. This study was conducted to evaluate whether cycle length was more regular during methadone maintenance.

SETTINGS

An out-patient research treatment program in Baltimore, Maryland, USA.

PARTICIPANTS

A total of 191 heroin and cocaine-using women from two clinical trials, lasting 25-29 weeks; each woman was maintained on 70-100 mg of methadone.

MEASUREMENTS

Start/end dates of each menses were collected.

DESIGN

Menstrual patterns were classified as regular, irregular, transient amenorrhea, persistent amenorrhea or cycle restart. Repeated-measures regression modeling determined correlates of cycle length and predictors of long cycles (> 40 days) and short cycles (< 20 days). Bleeding episodes were defined as 1 or more bleeding days, bound by at least 2 non-bleeding days. Correlates/predictors examined were body mass index, drug use, methadone dose and race.

FINDINGS

In the 133 women for whom menstrual patterns could be determined, cycle-length irregularity was common: irregular, 62 (46.7%); regular, 37 (27.8%); cycle restart, 16 (12%); persistent amenorrhea, 11 (8.3%); transient amenorrhea, seven (5.3%). Each additional week on methadone maintenance was associated with decreased risk of long (OR = 0.96, P < 0.01 and short (OR = 0.92, P < 0.01) cycles. Of 27 women with secondary amenorrhea pre-study, 16 (59%) restarted menses. Positivity for opioids or cocaine was not significantly associated with short or long cycles.

CONCLUSIONS

Cycle length begins to normalize during methadone maintenance. Menses resumption may occur. Methadone maintenance, despite interfering with menstrual function in an absolute sense, may interfere less than illicit heroin abuse.

Potential cost-effectiveness of a preventive hepatitis C vaccine in high risk and average risk populations in Canada

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) vaccine development remains at an early stage. We explored the economic and health consequences of potential HCV vaccines by comparing universal vaccination with a hepatitis C vaccine to no vaccination in two groups: (1) injecting drug users (IDU); (2) all 12 year olds, using a Markov cohort simulation. Among IDUs, vaccination would avert 248 cases of HCV infection and 89 HCV-related deaths per 1000 individuals, and reduce costs. In average risk cohorts, vaccination did not reduce costs but was reasonably cost effective. These results provide encouragement to vaccine developers that a vaccine that is moderately effective and reasonably priced should not face economic barriers to implementation and will be attractive to third party payers.

Deaths of clients in methadone treatment in Texas: 1994-2002

This study analyzes causes of deaths of 766 patients who died while in methadone treatment in Texas between 1994 and 2002. Compared with deaths in the general population of Texas, deaths of clients in methadone treatment were 4.6 times more likely to be from a drug overdose, 3.4 times more likely to be from liver disease, 1.7 times more likely to be from a respiratory disease, 1.5 times more likely to be from a homicide and 1.4 times more likely to be from AIDS, but less likely to be from suicide, motor vehicle accidents, cardiovascular diseases or cancer. Of the clients, 20% died of liver disease, 18% of cardiovascular disease and 14% of drug overdose. An older cohort had been in treatment longer, had more take-homes, were on higher doses and tended to die of chronic diseases. A younger cohort tended to die from traumas, including drug overdose. Time in treatment was 43.3 months; mean daily dose was 77.3mg; number of days/month dosed in the clinic was 13.9. Given these rates, the scope of services should include on-site treatment for other medical conditions and staff should be educated about and counsel about the risk of death for new patients.

Recent life problems and non-fatal overdose among heroin users entering treatment

AIMS

To investigate the role of recent life problems in non-fatal overdose among heroin users entering various drug treatment settings.

DESIGN

Cross-sectional data from a longitudinal study investigating drug treatment effectiveness.

SETTING

Five prison drug treatment services, three residential rehabilitation units, three residential detoxification units and 21 community drug treatment services located in rural, urban and inner-city areas of Scotland.

PARTICIPANTS

Of a total of 793 primary heroin users commencing drug treatment during 2001-02, 337 (42.5%) were prison drug service clients; 91 (11.5%) were residential rehabilitation clients; 97 (12.2%) were residential detoxification clients; and 268 (33.8%) were community drug treatment clients.

MEASUREMENTS

Univariate and stepwise multivariate logistic regression analyses examined associations between overdosing in the 90 days prior to treatment entry and basic demographic characteristics, recent drug use and recent life problems.

FINDINGS

Ninety-one study participants (11.5%) reported at least one overdose and 19 (2.4%) reported more than one overdose in the 90 days prior to treatment entry. A chi2 test revealed no significant difference in rates of recent overdosing between the four treatment settings (P = 0.650). Recent drug use and recent life problems-but not demographic characteristics-were associated independently with recent overdosing. However, recent life problems were not associated independently with recent overdosing among clients entering prison, clients entering residential rehabilitation or with multiple recent overdosing.

CONCLUSIONS

Associations between recent life problems and recent overdose were evident, but varied by treatment setting. Treatment providers should identify and address heroin users' life problems as part of a broad strategy of overdose prevention.

What is the cost-effectiveness of hepatitis C treatment for injecting drug users on methadone maintenance in New Zealand?

The cost-effectiveness of hepatitis C virus (HCV) anti-viral therapy for injecting drug users (IDUs) on methadone maintenance is important because the majority have chronic infections that remain untreated. Cost-effectiveness analysis examines the costs of treatment compared with the benefits, which in this study are defined as savings in life. The cost-effectiveness of treatment for HCV infection is investigated for Mäori and non-Mäori IDUs on methadone maintenance therapy (MMT) in New Zealand. Markov models are used to model cohorts of IDUs, changes in their health states and the effects of MMT and anti-viral therapy on morbidity and mortality. Comparisons were made between conventional combination therapy (COT) and combination therapy with pegylated interferon. Sensitivity analysis is used to model cost-effectiveness of treatment under varying assumptions of progression of liver disease and compliance with treatment. The cost-effectiveness of MMT alone was estimated at 25397 dollars per life year saved (LYS) for non-Mäori men and 25035 dollars for non-Mäori women IDUs (costs and benefits discounted at 3%). The incremental effects of providing COT to all eligible patients were to save extra years of life, as well as to involve additional costs of anti-viral therapy. Analysis of both the incremental costs and benefits showed that a policy of providing COT to all patients meeting treatment criteria would have similar cost-effectiveness to MMT alone. Costs per LYS were estimated to be lower for Mäori for both men and women, reflecting ethnic differences in mortality. Cost-effectiveness was found to improve if the average age of stabilizing on MMT could be lowered by 5 years from the current average age of 31 years to age 26. Cost-effectiveness of the new treatment with pegylated interferon and ribavirin was found to be similar to that of COT because the increased LYS were offset by expected higher costs of the new pharmaceuticals. Sensitivity analysis showed that anti-viral treatment remained cost-effective under varying assumptions of the rate of disease progression and compliance with treatment.

Economic analysis of costs and consequences of the treatment of drug misuse: 2-year outcome data from the National Treatment Outcome Research Study (NTORS)

AIMS

Some economic costs and consequences of drug misuse and treatment were investigated among clients recruited to the National Treatment Outcome Research Study (NTORS).

DESIGN

This was a longitudinal prospective cohort design comprising 549 clients recruited from 54 residential and community treatment programmes: data were collected from interviews conducted at treatment intake, at 1 year and at 2-year follow-ups.

MEASUREMENTS

Treatment costs included index and other drug treatments. Costs were estimated for use of health and social care services, criminal activity and the use of criminal justice resources. Costs were based upon self-reported data collected by structured face-to-face interviews combined with unit cost estimates taken from a variety of sources.

FINDINGS

Addiction treatment was costed at pound 2.9 million in the 2 years prior to index treatment, and a further pound 4.4 million in the subsequent 2 years. Economic benefits were largely accounted for by reduced crime and victim costs of crime. Crime costs fell by pound 16.1 million during the first year, and by pound 11.3 million during the second year. Health-care costs were relatively small but approximately doubled during the course of the study. The ratio of consequences to net treatment investment varied from 18 : 1 to 9.5 : 1, depending on assumptions. This is likely to be a conservative estimate of the benefit-cost ratio because many potential benefits were not estimated.

CONCLUSIONS

The data showed clear economic benefits to treating drug misusers in England.

Cause and manner of death in drug-related fatality: an analysis of drug-related deaths recorded by coroners in England and Wales in 2000

This study investigated causes and manner of drug-related fatalities recorded in 2000 in the United Kingdom, measuring the 'masked' manner of death in cases typically recorded as overdose. A retrospective cohort study was used of 1037 cases of accidental drug-related fatalities reported by coroners in England and Wales to the National Programme of Substance Abuse Deaths. Whilst 802 cases were identified as direct acute overdose, representing 77% of the total accidental deaths, 23% of 'overdose' fatalities were caused by asphyxiation (7%), drug-related medical conditions (7%), non-drug-related conditions (4%), traumatic accidents (3%) and infections (2%). Younger people show higher risk of overdose and asphyxiation; older people show higher risk from pre-existing medical conditions. This study not only confirmed the high risk of overdose associated with heroin and polydrug use, but it also identified other high fatality risk factors for heroin/morphine users such as contracting an acute infection leading to septicaemia or endocarditis, or contracting a chronic infection such as HIV, HBV or HCV. In contrast, stimulants particularly featured in traumatic accidents, with amphetamine use most associated with cardio-vascular fatality. These findings highlight the 'masked' manner of death in cases commonly recorded as overdose and demonstrate the need for a more-detailed and systematic method of recording drug-related deaths in order to inform drug education and harm reduction strategies.

Projecting future complications of chronic hepatitis C in the United States

Chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection is common and often results in slowly progressive liver disease. Although acute hepatitis C is now uncommon, most patients with acute infection have developed chronic hepatitis, and, therefore, the pool of infected patients is large. We used a modification of a previously described natural history model for HCV infection to project the number of cases of HCV infection, cirrhosis, and liver failure over the next 40 years. The model estimated the prevalence of HCV infection in the United States was 3.07 x 10(6) in 1993 (compared with an adjusted National Health and Nutrition Evaluation Survey (NHANES) III estimate of 2.8 to 3.5 x 10(6)). A gradual decline in the prevalence of infection should occur by year 2040 because of aging and natural deaths among the infected pool. However, as the duration of infection increases in the surviving cohort, the proportion with cirrhosis will increase from 16% to 32% by 2020 in an untreated population. Complications of cirrhosis also will increase dramatically over the next 20 years: hepatic decompensation (up 106%), hepatocellular carcinoma (up 81%), and liver-related deaths (up 180%). Although current treatment regimens eradicate HCV in over 50% of cases, many more patients would need to be treated to significantly impact disease progression. Identification and treatment of every case of HCV infection (with or without cirrhosis) would reduce the number of cases of decompensated cirrhosis by almost half after 20 years. Despite the declining incidence of acute HCV infection, chronic hepatitis C is common. The prevalence of cirrhosis and the incidence of its complications will increase over the next 10 to 20 years, because the duration of infection increases among those with chronic hepatitis C. These data emphasize the need for greater access to transplantation by expansion of the donor pool, increasing use of split livers and living donors, and novel options such as xenotransplantation.

Suicide among heroin users: rates, risk factors and methods

The current paper examines critically the literature on suicide rates, suicide risk factors and methods employed for suicide among heroin users, and compares these to those of the general population. Heroin users have a death rate 13 times that of their peers, and deaths among heroin users attributed to suicide range from 3-35%. Overall, heroin users are 14 times more likely than peers to die from suicide. The prevalence of attempted suicide is also many orders of magnitude greater than that of community samples. The major general population risk factors for suicide also apply to heroin users (gender, psychopathology, family dysfunction and social isolation). Heroin users, however, have extremely wide exposure to these factors. They also carry additional risks specifically associated with heroin and other drug use. Drugs as a method of suicide play a larger role in suicide among heroin users than in the general population. Heroin, however, appears to play a relatively small role in suicide among this group. Overall, suicide is a major clinical issue among heroin users. It is concluded that suicide is a major problem that treatment agencies face, and which requires targeted intervention if the rates of suicide among this group are to decline.

Toxicologic aspects of heroin substitution treatment

Heroin abuse is an international problem with which all countries must continually cope. Many countries have implemented heroin substitution therapy as an effective means of decreasing illicit heroin use, crime, HIV risk, and death, and in improving employment and social adjustment. Although methadone is the most commonly used medication for heroin substitution, other agonists in current use include levomethadyl acetate (LAAM), buprenorphine, and pharmaceutical-grade heroin. This report reviews toxicologic issues that arise in these programs. A broad array of testing methodologies are available that allow selection of on-site testing or laboratory-based methodology. Urine specimens may be monitored for nonprescribed drugs on a qualitative or semiquantitative basis. Methods for differentiating opiate sources by urinalysis have been proposed to distinguish poppy seed consumption from heroin abuse and for distinguishing pharmaceutical-grade heroin from illicit heroin. Therapeutic drug monitoring for methadone in plasma continues to be evaluated for use in establishing adequate dosing and detecting diversion, and new methods have been devised for measurement of the optical isomers of methadone in plasma. Biologic specimens, in addition to plasma and urine, have been evaluated for use in drug monitoring, including sweat, hair, and oral fluid, with promising results. Overall, the many recent developments in testing methodology provide more effective means to assess patients in heroin substitution programs and should contribute to improvements in public health.

A prospective study of mortality among drug misusers during a 4-year period after seeking treatment

AIMS

The opportunity to study deaths as they occur within the framework of a prospective cohort study is relatively uncommon. This study investigates deaths among drug misusers over a 4-year period, with specific attention to the circumstances and causes of death, and risk factors for mortality. The study also critically examines the recording of drug-related deaths.

DESIGN, SETTING, PARTICIPANTS

Prospective cohort study of 1075 drug misusers recruited to 54 treatment programmes during 1995.

MEASUREMENTS

Data derived from interviews conducted with clients at intake, death certificates and post-mortem examinations.

FINDINGS

The annual mortality rate was 1.2%, about six times higher than that for a general, age-matched population. Fourteen per cent of the deaths were due to self-inflicted injuries, accidents or violence and 18%, were due to medical causes. The majority of deaths (68%) were associated with drug overdoses. Opiates were the drugs most commonly detected during post-mortem examinations. In the majority of cases, more than one drug was detected. Polydrug use and, specifically, heavy drinking, and use of benzodiazepines and amphetamines, were identified as risk factors for mortality. Anxiety and homelessness were also predictive of increased mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

We suggest that drug misusers and those working with drug misusers need to be more alert to the risks of polydrug use, including the combined use of alcohol with illicit drugs. The study revealed inconsistencies in the recording of drug-related deaths on death certificates. The routine recording of all substances detected during toxicological examination would improve the accuracy of death certification.

Estimating future hepatitis C morbidity, mortality, and costs in the United States

OBJECTIVES

This study estimated future morbidity, mortality, and costs resulting from hepatitis C virus (HCV).

METHODS

We used a computer cohort simulation of the natural history of HCV in the US population.

RESULTS

From the year 2010 through 2019, our model projected 165,900 deaths from chronic liver disease, 27,200 deaths from hepatocellular carcinoma, and $10.7 billion in direct medical expenditures for HCV. During this period, HCV may lead to 720,700 years of decompensated cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma and to the loss of 1.83 million years of life in those younger than 65 at a societal cost of $21.3 and $54.2 billion, respectively. In sensitivity analysis, these estimates depended on (1) whether patients with HCV and normal transaminase levels develop progressive liver disease, (2) the extent of alcohol ingestion, and (3) the likelihood of dying from other causes related to the route of HCV acquisition.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results confirm prior Centers for Disease Control and Prevention projections and suggest that HCV may lead to a substantial health and economic burden over the next 10 to 20 years.

Experience of heroin overdose among drug users attending general practice

BACKGROUND

Heroin overdose is responsible for significant mortality. It has not previously been highlighted as an important prevention or care issue for general practitioners (GPs) involved in the management of drug misuse.

AIMS

To examine the prevalence and experience of heroin overdose in a population of drug users attending a general practice.

METHOD

A questionnaire-based interview of drug users attending a general practice in Dublin, Ireland.

RESULTS

Twenty-four (73% of estimated total) drug users were interviewed. Although 17 (71%) were on recognised methadone treatment programmes, 10 (42%) were still injecting heroin. A total of 23 (96%) had witnessed an overdose, with 10 (42%) having been victims of overdose themselves. Twenty-two (92%) knew a victim of fatal overdose, with four (17%) having been present at a fatal overdose. The interviews revealed high levels of activity associated with overdose and poor use of preventive measures.

CONCLUSION

The issue of prevention and management of overdose should become a priority for GPs caring for opiate-dependent patients.

Methadone, methadone treatment and non-fatal overdose

This paper provides a mainly qualitative investigation of the role of methadone and methadone treatment in non-fatal illicit drug overdose. During 1997 and 1998, semi-structured interviews were conducted with 33 individuals in six hospital accident and emergency departments in two Scottish cities. The research identified four overdose situations related to methadone/methadone treatment. These were: (1) topping up a legitimate methadone prescription; (2) abusing another's methadone prescription; (3) preferring illegal drugs to prescribed methadone; and (4) failing to obtain prescribed methadone. The implications of these findings for methadone treatment policy and practice are discussed.

Does homosexual activity shorten life?

Previous estimates from obituaries and pre-1994 sex surveys suggested that the median age of death for homosexuals is less than 50 yr. Four contemporary databases were used to test that estimate: (1) obituaries in the homosexual press from 1993 through 1997 reflected treatment success for those with AIDS but suggested a median age of death less than 50 years; (2) two large random sexuality surveys in 1994--one in the USA and the other in Britain--yielded results consistent with a median age of death for homosexuals of less than 50 years; (3) the median age of those ever married in Denmark, Sweden, and Norway was about 50 years, while that of the ever homosexually partnered was about 40 yr; further, the married were about 5 times more apt to be old and 4 times less apt to be widowed young; and (4) intravenous drug abusers and homosexuals taking HIV tests in Colorado had almost identical age distributions. The four lines of evidence were consistent with previous findings suggesting that homosexual activity may be associated with a lifespan shortened by 20 to 30 years.

A 12-year study (1975-1986) of mortality in methadone-maintenance patients: selected demographic characteristics and drug-use patterns of AIDS and non-AIDS-related deaths

This paper describes changes in demographic characteristics and drug use patterns of persons who died while enrolled in a New York City methadone-maintenance program during the years preceding and subsequent to the AIDS epidemic. Persons dying from AIDS were more likely to be younger, Hispanic, and male than those dying from other causes. Drug use increased during the 12-year study period, and the spread of the HIV infection among drug users may be reflected in an increased use of injectable drugs.

Fatal heroin 'overdose': a review

The current paper examines critically the literature on deaths attributed to heroin overdose, and examines the characteristics and circumstances of such deaths. In particular, the dominance of the widely held belief that heroin-related fatalities are a consequence of overdose is challenged. Deaths attributed to overdose represented in the literature are typically older, heroin-dependent males not in drug treatment at the time of death. Fatalities involving only heroin appear to form a minority of overdose occasions, the presence of other drugs (primarily central nervous system depressants such as alcohol and benzodiazepines) being commonly detected at autopsy. Furthermore, deaths attributed to overdose are likely to have morphine levels no higher than those who survive, or heroin users who die from other causes. It is concluded that the term overdose is, in many cases, a misleading term, since it implies the same mechanism of death in all cases, an implication that is neither clinically useful nor consistent with published data. Implications for the prevention of heroin-related deaths are discussed.

Methadone maintenance and addicts' risk of fatal heroin overdose

An admission cohort of 296 Australian methadone maintenance patients was followed over 15 years. The relative risks of death in and out of maintenance were calculated for two age groups, 20-29 and 30-39 years. Heroin addicts in both age groups were one-quarter as likely to die while receiving methadone maintenance as addicts not in treatment. This is because they were significantly less likely to die by heroin overdose or suicide while in maintenance. Methadone maintenance had no measurable effect on the risk of death through nonheroin overdose, violence or trauma, or natural causes. A meta-analysis showed the reduction in overall mortality was consistent with the results of cohort studies conducted in the United States, Sweden, and Germany. The combined results of the five studies again indicated that methadone maintenance reduced addicts' risk of death to a quarter, RR 0.25 (95% CI 0.19 to 0.33).

Heroin addicts and methadone treatment in Albuquerque: a 22-year follow-up

All heroin addicts who registered for methadone treatment in Albuquerque in 1969-1971, 1019 in all, were the subjects of this follow-up study, conducted in 1991-1993. The cohort was almost entirely of Hispanic (Chicano) ethnicity, 86% male, with median age 27 at entry. We located 776, dead or alive, and we were able to interview 243 concerning many aspects of their lives. At least one-third of the original group had died during the 22-year period, representing standard mortality ratios 4.0 for males and 6.8 for females. Drug overdose, violence, alcohol, or suicide accounted for nearly all deaths of which the causes were known. Despite the availability of treatment, including methadone maintenance, both heroin use and criminality continued at a high rate. Of the 428 known survivors, 48% were currently enrolled in a methadone program after 22 years. They were using significantly less heroin, alcohol, and other drugs (except nicotine) than those not on methadone. Similar beneficial effects of methadone maintenance were reported retrospectively at interview. Our findings offer an insight into heroin addiction as a chronic lifelong relapsing disease with a high fatality rate.

The Longevity of Homosexuals: Before and after the Aids Epidemic

Although the U.S. Surgeon General characterized homosexual sex as “normal” and “healthy,” homosexuals and IV drug abusers have suffered disproportionately from the AIDS epidemic. Longevity is often utilized as a measure of health. How long did homosexuals live before the AIDS epidemic and how long do they live today? We examined 6,737 obituaries/death notices from eighteen U.S. homosexual journals over the past thirteen years and compared them to obituaries from two conventional newspapers. The obituaries from the non-homosexual newspapers were similar to U.S. averages for longevity: the median age of death of married men was seventy-five, 80 percent died old (65 or older); for unmarried men it was fifty-seven, 32 percent died old; for married women it was seventy-nine, 85 percent died old; for unmarried women it was seventy-one, 60 percent died old. For the 6,574 homosexual deaths, the median age of death if AIDS was the cause was thirty-nine irrespective of whether or not the individual had a Long Time Sexual Partner [LTSP], 1 percent died old. For those 829 who died of non-AIDS causes the median age of death was forty-two (41 for those 315 with a LTSP and 43 for those 514 without) and <9 percent died old. Homosexuals more frequently met a violent end from accidental death, traffic death, suicide, and murder than men in general. The 163 lesbians registered a median age of death of forty-four (20% died old) and exhibited high rates of violent death and cancer as compared to women in general. Old homosexuals appear to have been proportionately less numerous than their non-homosexual counterparts in the scientific literature from 1858 to 1993. The pattern of early death evident in the homosexual obituaries is consistent with the pattern exhibited in the published surveys of homosexuals and intravenous drug abusers. Homosexuals may have experienced a short lifespan for the last 140 years; AIDS has apparently reduced it about 10 percent. Such an abbreviated lifespan puts the healthfulness of homosexuality in question.

Death and survival in a cohort of heroin addicts from London clinics: a 22-year follow-up study

Data are presented on the 43 people who died over a 22-year follow-up period of a cohort of 128 heroin addicts drawn in 1969 from the newly opened London clinics. The main causes of death were drug-related, with 18 deaths specifically determined as due to overdose, of which the great majority were among people being prescribed opiates at the time. The mortality rate was a mean of 1.84% annually, and the excess mortality ratio was 11.9. This excess was highest at the beginning and varied over the period of study, appearing higher at the opening of the clinics and again in the mid-1980s. No sex differences in mortality rates were demonstrated but the excess mortality was concentrated at younger ages. No prediction of the 85 survivors could be made on the basis of length of heroin use prior to study intake, nor on age at intake.

Mortality among injecting drug users: a critical reappraisal

STUDY OBJECTIVE

The aim was to quantify all cause mortality among injecting drug users.

DESIGN

This was a retrospective analysis of 1989 data on injecting drug users and mortality obtained from three independent agencies: the Procurator Fiscal's Office, the General Register Office, and the Scottish HIV-test register.

SETTING

Greater Glasgow, Scotland.

SUBJECTS

Drug injectors, estimated population 9424.

MAIN RESULTS

81 names were found using the three sources to identify deaths. After removing duplicates, 51 deaths were found. This represented a mortality rate of 0.54% in the estimated population. Among female injectors the mortality rate was 0.85%, significantly higher than the rate of 0.42% among male injectors (95% CI for the true difference in mortality rates between female and male injectors was 0.31%-0.55%). Over 90% of deaths were attributed to overdose or suicide. Although AIDS caused only one death, 19% of cases (5/27) whose HIV antibody status could be ascertained were positive. The mortality rate among HIV positive injectors (3.8%) was significantly higher than among HIV negative injectors (0.49%).

CONCLUSIONS

Comprehensive coverage using three data sources revealed a far greater annual number of all cause deaths among injectors than would have been expected from previous research. The observed mortality rate was lower than in previous studies where the denominators used to calculate rates had an element of underenumeration. For the foreseeable future it is unlikely that AIDS will have much impact on mortality among injectors in Glasgow, because of the low prevalence of HIV infection among injectors in the city, and because HIV positive injectors are dying for reasons other than AIDS; rather, overdose and suicide will continue to be the main causes of death.

The impact of intravenous drug use on mortality of young adults in Rome, Italy

To estimate the impact of intravenous drug use (IVDU) on mortality in the general population of young adults in Rome, Italy, the Population Attributable Risk (PAR) was calculated for the overall and cause-specific mortality in the 15-34 years age group. Relative risks were derived from a previous historical cohort study on mortality among 4200 intravenous drug users (IVDUs) in Rome, in which increased mortality from cardiovascular, respiratory, and gastrointestinal diseases as well as from violence, overdose and AIDS had been observed. The prevalence of the risk factor (i.e. the proportion of IVDUs) in the general population was estimated using the 'multiplier formula' and 'capture-recapture' methods. The proportion of all deaths attributable to IVDU in the 15-34 age group in the Roman population was 16% and 9% in males and females, respectively. The cause-specific attributable proportions were 66% for endocarditis and 37% for cirrhosis in males, and 36% for endocarditis and pneumonia in females. These findings further document the relevant health consequences of IVDU on the general population of a large metropolitan area.

Effects of drug misuse treatment on symptoms of depression and suicide

In this longitudinal study of 9,904 clients who were treated at methadone, outpatient drug-free (OPDF), and residential treatment facilities, at intake more than half of all clients reported symptoms of depression or suicide. Females and multiple nonnarcotics users were at highest risk for suicide attempts. Despite a dramatic drop in the level of symptomatology by 4 weeks in treatment, many clients remained suicidal throughout the study period. Suicidal tendencies at both intake and 4 weeks were strongly related to suicidal tendencies at 12 months post-treatment; even more strongly related was the return to weekly or more frequent use of narcotics or nonnarcotics for residential and OPDF clients.

Mortality of intravenous drug users in Rome: a cohort study

A historical cohort study was carried out in Rome to examine overall and cause-specific mortality among intravenous drug users (IVDUs). A total of 4200 IVDUs (3411 men and 789 women) enrolled in methadone treatment centers between 1980 and 1988 were studied. There were 239 deaths during the follow-up period. The overall SMR was 10.10 in the entire cohort (95% confidence interval, 8.86-11.47), 9.30 in males and 18.07 in females. A large excess of mortality in both sexes was found for infectious, circulatory, respiratory, and digestive diseases as well as for violence, overdose, AIDS, and unknown or ill-defined causes. Tumors and suicide were excessive only in males. Deaths due to drug overdose, violence or trauma, and cirrhosis accounted for 63.6%, AIDS for 7.1%, endocarditis and other bacterial infections for 7.1%, and neoplasms for 3.8% of total mortality. These findings document serious health consequences of drug abuse in Italy.

Bleach programs for preventing AIDS among i.v. drug users: modeling the impact of HIV prevalence

BACKGROUND

The growing importance of drug use as a mode of HIV transmission has led to increased attention to AIDS prevention among intravenous drug users (IVDUs). This analysis examines the effectiveness of bleach distribution, a program to prevent HIV transmission via shared needles.

METHODS

We used a Markov model to assess the role of the initial HIV prevalence among drug users in determining the effectiveness of bleach programs. The model incorporates survey data on risk behaviors and published information describing HIV incubation and mortality. It predicts life expectancy for cohorts of IVDUs with and without a bleach program to estimate program effectiveness.

RESULTS

We found that bleach programs can produce the greatest life-year savings in areas of low HIV prevalence. In the lowest prevalence scenario (0.02 initial prevalence), initiation of the program resulted in a projected savings of 2.3 life years per HIV-negative drug user, compared with 1.7 and 1.3 years under medium (0.25) and high (0.60) prevalence, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

While bleach programs are beneficial in all groups of IVDUs, these results highlight the advantages of introducing bleach programs early, when prevalence is still comparatively low in a drug-user population.

Impact of the AIDS epidemic on morbidity and mortality among intravenous drug users in a New York City methadone maintenance program

To examine the impact of the AIDS epidemic on morbidity and mortality in a defined population of intravenous drug users, we analyzed overall and cause-specific death rates, AIDS incidence, and acute medical hospitalizations among patients in a long-term methadone maintenance program in New York City for the years 1984 through 1987 (midyear population for each year 828 to 891; demographic characteristics did not differ). The number of deaths while in treatment increased from 11 (13.3/1000) in 1984 to 39 (44.2/1000) in 1987. Deaths from AIDS increased from 3.6/1000 to 14.7/1000, deaths due to bacterial pneumonia/sepsis from 3.6/1000 to 13.6/1000; deaths from cirrhosis, drug overdose, trauma, and other causes remained relatively stable. AIDS incidence rose from six cases/1000 in 1984 to 20.4.1000 in 1987. Hospitalizations for AIDS, pneumonia, tuberculosis, and endocarditis/sepsis increased from 84.9/1000 in 1986 to 144.8/1000 in 1987. These data suggest that the AIDS epidemic has had a profound effect on patterns of morbidity and mortality among intravenous drug users in this methadone program population. Drug treatment programs may be important sites for targeting clinical services for drug users with AIDS, although the increasing burden of AIDS-related disease will require expansion of existing funding and treatment resources.

Mortality among criminals with suspected mental disturbance

Mortality rates and cause of death are reported from a long-term follow-up study of 620 Swedish criminals who were subjects of a forensic psychiatric examination in 1965-1968. The results show that there is an increased mortality rate in criminals mainly due to violent deaths (suicides, accidents) and diseases related to alcohol abuse. The increased mortality was found in all age groups throughout the follow-up period of 13-16 years. The total mortality was 17%. An analysis of different mortality risk factors showed that drug abuse, type of crime (violent crimes or property crimes) and criminal recidivism did not further increase the mortality risk. There were relatively few deaths due to overdose of drugs. Alcohol abuse increased the mortality rate significantly.

Fatal outcome in drug addiction

A sample of 524 young drug addicts consecutively treated at a special hospital ward has been followed by registers for an average of 10 years. A total of 62 were found to have died drug-related deaths at an average age of 28 years; 19 of them had committed suicide. Representativeness of the sample is investigated. Sex and choice of drugs were predictive factors behind fatal outcome: male opiate addicts died 5.4 times and male amphetamine abusers 2.5 times as often as expected. The males were exposed to greater risk than the females. Those who committed suicide had an hereditary disposition for mental disturbances, especially affective disorders. Lethal substances proved to be opiates, barbiturates and alcohol and/or other psychotropic preparations. Signs of heart disease were often found in the overdose cases. Most of the addicts who died were in a compulsive stage of the drug career, but some were abstaining or trying to abstain from drugs. A critical period seems to be at 26-28 years of age, a period when the abuse seems to be most intense and compulsive, the suicide risk is high and the efforts to abstain from drugs most serious and hazardous.

Mortality rates among opioid addicts in a longitudinal study

Mortality rates and survival curves were estimated for a sample of opioid addicts who had survived to an initial six-year follow-up interview. A total of 52 of the 555 addicts died between the six-year and 12-year follow-up interviews, which corresponds to an average of 13.8 deaths/1,000 person years. This rate is 6.9 times greater than the general population, adjusting for age. Approximately 29 per cent of the deaths were due to violence and 48 per cent to drugs.