Morbidity and disability in older persons in the years prior to death

Disability during the last ten years of life: evidence from a register-based study in Austria

Analyses of late-life disability based on survey data of the oldest old often suffer from non-representative samples due to selective participation and attrition. Here, we use register data on the Austrian long-term care allowance (ALTCA) as a proxy for late-life disability. In this retrospective mortality follow-back study, we analyze receipt of ALTCA, a universal cash benefit based on physician-assessed disability in activities of daily living during the last 10 years of life, among all decedents aged 65 years and over from 2020 in Austria (n = 76,781) and its association with sex, age at death, and underlying cause of death. We find that on average, ALTCA was received for 3.5 and 5.3 years in men and women. At 10 years before death, 10% of men and 25% of women received ALTCA, which increased to 56% and 77% at one year before death. Both the probability and duration of ALTCA increased with age at death and varied by cause of death: Those who died from cancer, myocardial infarction, and external causes of death were less likely to receive ALTCA and for shorter durations, while those who died from dementia, Parkinson's disease, chronic heart disease, or chronic lung disease were more likely to receive it and longer so. Overall, our register-based estimates of the prevalence of late-life disability were higher than previous survey-based estimates. Policy-makers should be aware that costs of long-term care will rise as life expectancy rises and deaths from dementia and chronic heart disease will likely increase in the rapidly aging European societies.

Pfeature: A Tool for Computing Wide Range of Protein Features and Building Prediction Models

In the last three decades, a wide range of protein features have been discovered to annotate a protein. Numerous attempts have been made to integrate these features in a software package/platform so that the user may compute a wide range of features from a single source. To complement the existing methods, we developed a method, Pfeature, for computing a wide range of protein features. Pfeature allows to compute more than 200,000 features required for predicting the overall function of a protein, residue-level annotation of a protein, and function of chemically modified peptides. It has six major modules, namely, composition, binary profiles, evolutionary information, structural features, patterns, and model building. Composition module facilitates to compute most of the existing compositional features, plus novel features. The binary profile of amino acid sequences allows to compute the fraction of each type of residue as well as its position. The evolutionary information module allows to compute evolutionary information of a protein in the form of a position-specific scoring matrix profile generated using Position-Specific Iterative Basic Local Alignment Search Tool (PSI-BLAST); fit for annotation of a protein and its residues. A structural module was developed for computing of structural features/descriptors from a tertiary structure of a protein. These features are suitable to predict the therapeutic potential of a protein containing non-natural or chemically modified residues. The model-building module allows to implement various machine learning techniques for developing classification and regression models as well as feature selection. Pfeature also allows the generation of overlapping patterns and features from a protein. A user-friendly Pfeature is available as a web server python library and stand-alone package.

Analysis of Healthcare Expenditures in Bulgaria

The growth of public expenditure worldwide has set the priority on assessment of trends and establishment of factors which generate the most significant public costs. The goal of the current study is to review the tendencies in public healthcare expenditures in Bulgaria and to analyze the influence of the demographic, economic, and healthcare system capacity indicators on expenditures dynamics. A retrospective, top-down, financial analysis of the healthcare system expenditures was performed. Datasets of the National Statistical Institute (NSI), National Health Insurance Fund (NHIF), and National Center of Public Health and Analysis (NCPHA) were retrospectively reviewed from2014–2019 to collect the information in absolute units of healthcare expenditures, healthcare system performance, demographics, and economic indicators. The research showed that increasing GDP led to higher healthcare costs, and it was the main factor affecting the cost growth in Bulgaria. The number of hospitalized patients and citizens in retirement age remained constant, confirming that their impact on healthcare costs was negligible. In conclusion, the population aging, average life expectancy, patient morbidity, and hospitalization rate altogether impacted healthcare costs mainly due to the multimorbidity of older people and the rising need for outpatient hospital services and medications.

Effect of Aspirin on Activities of Daily Living Disability in Community-Dwelling Older Adults

BACKGROUND

Cerebrovascular events, dementia, and cancer can contribute to physical disability with activities of daily living (ADL). It is unclear whether low-dose aspirin reduces this burden in aging populations. In a secondary analysis, we now examine aspirin's effects on incident and persistent ADL disability within a primary prevention aspirin trial in community-dwelling older adults.

METHODS

The ASPREE (ASPirin in Reducing Events in the Elderly) trial of daily 100 mg aspirin versus placebo recruited 19 114 healthy adults aged 70+ years (65+ years if U.S. minority) in Australia and the United States. Six basic ADLs were assessed every 6 months. Incident ADL disability was defined as inability or severe difficulty with ≥1 ADL; persistence was confirmed if the same ADL disability remained after 6 months. Proportional hazards modeling compared time to incident or persistent ADL disability for aspirin versus placebo; death without prior disability was a competing risk.

RESULTS

Over a median of 4.7 years, incident ADL disability was similar in those receiving aspirin (776/9525) and placebo (787/9589) with walking, bathing, dressing, and transferring the most commonly reported. Only 24% of incident ADL disability progressed to persistent. Persistent ADL disability was lower in the aspirin group (4.3 vs 5.3 events/1000 py; hazard ratio [HR] = 0.81, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.66-1.00), with bathing and dressing the most common ADL disabilities in both groups. Following persistent ADL disability, there were more deaths in the aspirin group (24 vs 12).

DISCUSSION

Low-dose aspirin in initially healthy older people did not reduce the risk of incident ADL disability, although there was evidence of reduced persistent ADL disability.

Different aspects of frailty and COVID-19: points to consider in the current pandemic and future ones

BACKGROUND

Older adults at a higher risk of adverse outcomes and mortality if they get infected with Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS- CoV-2). These undesired outcomes are because ageing is associated with other conditions like multimorbidity, frailty and disability. This paper describes the impact of frailty on coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) management and outcomes. We also try to point out the role of inflamm-ageing, immunosenescence and reduced microbiota diversity in developing a severe form of COVID-19 and a different response to COVID-19 vaccination among older frail adults. Additionally, we attempt to highlight the impact of frailty on intensive care unit (ICU) outcomes, and hence, the rationale behind using frailty as an exclusion criterion for critical care admission. Similarly, the importance of using a time-saving, validated, sensitive, and user-friendly tool for frailty screening in an acute setting as COVID-19 triage. We performed a narrative review. Publications from 1990 to March 2021 were identified by searching the electronic databases MEDLINE, CINAHL and SCOPUS. Based on this search, we have found that in older frail adults, many mechanisms contribute to the severity of COVID-19, particularly cytokine storm; those mechanisms include lower immunological capacity and status of ongoing chronic inflammation and reduced gut microbiota diversity. Higher degrees of frailty were associated with poor outcomes and higher mortality rates during and after ICU admission. Also, the response to COVID-19 vaccination among frail older adults might differ from the general population regarding effectiveness and side effects. Researches also had shown that there are many tools for identifying frailty in an acute setting that could be used in COVID-19 triage, and before ICU admission, the clinical frailty scale (CFS) was the most recommended tool.

CONCLUSION

Older frail adults have a pre-existing immunopathological base that puts them at a higher risk of undesired outcomes and mortality due to COVID-19 and poor response to COVID-19 vaccination. Also, their admission in ICU should depend on their degree of frailty rather than their chronological age, which is better to be screened using the CFS.

Innovations in Geroscience to enhance mobility in older adults

Aging is the primary risk factor for functional decline; thus, understanding and preventing disability among older adults has emerged as an important public health challenge of the 21st century. The science of gerontology - or geroscience - has the practical purpose of "adding life to the years." The overall goal of geroscience is to increase healthspan, which refers to extending the portion of the lifespan in which the individual experiences enjoyment, satisfaction, and wellness. An important facet of this goal is preserving mobility, defined as the ability to move independently. Despite this clear purpose, this has proven to be a challenging endeavor as mobility and function in later life are influenced by a complex interaction of factors across multiple domains. Moreover, findings over the past decade have highlighted the complexity of walking and how targeting multiple systems, including the brain and sensory organs, as well as the environment in which a person lives, can have a dramatic effect on an older person's mobility and function. For these reasons, behavioral interventions that incorporate complex walking tasks and other activities of daily living appear to be especially helpful for improving mobility function. Other pharmaceutical interventions, such as oxytocin, and complementary and alternative interventions, such as massage therapy, may enhance physical function both through direct effects on biological mechanisms related to mobility, as well as indirectly through modulation of cognitive and socioemotional processes. Thus, the purpose of the present review is to describe evolving interventional approaches to enhance mobility and maintain healthspan in the growing population of older adults in the United States and countries throughout the world. Such interventions are likely to be greatly assisted by technological advances and the widespread adoption of virtual communications during and after the COVID-19 era.

Impacts of a Care Robotics Project on Finnish Home Care Workers' Attitudes towards Robots

Technological advances in elderly care have been rapid, and the introduction of robots in care will be a topical issue in the near future. There has been little research into the possibility of influencing care workers’ attitudes towards robots by project activities, and how to make the change easier for work communities. This study focuses on a robotics project that took place in elderly and home care services in one municipality in Finland (total of 45 care workers). During the project, four robotics workshops and one extended pilot session were implemented. The study follows quasi-experimental settings, and it included two measurements (before and after project activities) and a control group, but no randomization. The data were collected by questionnaires and were analyzed statistically. The project under study brought about minor positive changes in home care workers’ attitudes towards the usefulness of care robots. In the final measurement, the difference between the test group and the control group was significant in the two dimensions of positive attitudes. The research supports the hypothesis that project activities can be used to influence home care workers’ attitudes towards robots. This can also facilitate the introduction of care robots in home care services. However, the construction of a technology-positive care culture is a long-term process, which requires training and development, technological development and strong strategic management at various levels.

Validation of the Risk Analysis Index for Evaluating Frailty in Ambulatory Patients

BACKGROUND

Frailty is a marker of dependency, disability, hospitalization, and mortality in community-dwelling older adults. However, existing tools for measuring frailty are too cumbersome for rapid point-of-care assessment. The Risk Analysis Index (RAI) of frailty is validated in surgical populations, but its performance outside surgical populations is unknown.

OBJECTIVE

Validate the RAI in ambulatory patients.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

Observational cohort study of outpatient surgical clinics within the University of Pittsburgh Medical Center Healthcare System between July 1, 2016, and December 31, 2016. Frailty was assessed using the RAI. Current Procedural Terminology codes following RAI assessment identified patients with and without minor office-based procedures (eg, joint injection, laryngoscopy).

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

All-cause 1-year mortality, assessed by stratified Cox proportional hazard models.

RESULTS

Of 28,059 patients, 13,861 were matched to a minor, office-based procedure and 14,198 did not undergo any procedure. The mean (SD) age was 56.7 (17.2) years; women constituted 15,797 (56.3%) of the cohort. Median time (interquartile range 25th-75th percentile) to measure RAI was 30 (22-47) seconds. Mortality among the frail was two to five times that of patients with normal RAI scores. For example, the hazard ratio for frail ambulatory patients without a minor procedure was 3.69 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 2.51-5.41), corresponding to 30-, 180-, and 365-day mortality rates of 2.9%, 11.2%, and 17.4%, respectively, compared to 0.3%, 2.3%, and 4.0% among patients with normal RAI scores. Discrimination of mortality (overall, and censored at 30, 180, and 365 days) was excellent, ranging from c = 0.838 (95% CI = 0.773-0.902) for 30-day mortality after minor procedures to c = 0.909 (95% CI = 0.855-0.964) without a procedure.

CONCLUSION

RAI is a valid, easily administered tool for point-of-care frailty assessment in ambulatory populations that may help clinicians and patients make better informed decisions about care choices-especially among patients considered high risk with a potentially limited life span. J Am Geriatr Soc 68:1818-1824, 2020.

Self-rated health and associated factors among the oldest-old: results from a cross-sectional study in Sweden

BACKGROUND

Very few population-based studies have investigated self-rated health and related factors in the increasing age group 85 years or older. The aim of this study was to examine self-rated health and its association with living conditions, lifestyle factors, physical and mental health problems and functional ability among the oldest-old in the general population in Sweden.

METHODS

The study is cross-sectional and based on 1360 persons, 85 years of age or older, who answered a survey questionnaire sent to a random population sample in 2012 (participation rate 47%). Multivariate logistic regression was used as the statistical method.

RESULTS

The prevalence of good self-rated health was 39% in men and 30% in women. Physical inactivity, impaired physical mobility, pain, anxiety/depression and longstanding illness were independently associated with poorer than good self-rated health, while factors such as gender, age, educational level, cash margin, living alone, social support, smoking, alcohol use, obesity, accidents and impaired vision/hearing were not.

CONCLUSIONS

While a considerable part of the oldest-old assess their health as good, not being physically active and having common health problems such as pain and depression as well as impaired physical mobility are associated with poorer than good self-rated health. This should be considered when planning how to improve and maintain health in the growing population of persons 85 years and older.

Association of Frailty With Recovery From Disability Among Community-Dwelling Older Adults: Results From Two Large U.S. Cohorts

BACKGROUND

Disability in activities of daily living (ADLs) is a dynamic process and transitions among different disability states are common. However, little is known about factors affecting recovery from disability. We examined the association between frailty and recovery from disability among nondisabled community-dwelling elders.

METHODS

We studied 1,023 adults from the Cardiovascular Health Study (CHS) and 685 adults from the Health and Retirement Study (HRS), who were ≥65 years and had incident disability, defined as having difficulty in ≥1 ADL (dressing, eating, toileting, bathing, transferring, walking across a room). Disability recovery was defined as having no difficulty in any ADLs. Frailty was assessed by slowness, weakness, exhaustion, inactivity, and shrinking. Persons were classified as "nonfrail" (0 criteria), "prefrail" (1-2 criteria), or "frail" (3-5 criteria).

RESULTS

In total, 539 (52.7%) CHS participants recovered from disability within 1 year. Almost two-thirds of nonfrail persons recovered, while less than two-fifths of the frail recovered. In the HRS, 234 (34.2%) participants recovered from disability within 2 years. Approximately half of the nonfrail recovered, while less than one-fifth of the frail recovered. After adjustment, prefrail and frail CHS participants were 16% and 36% less likely to recover than the nonfrail, respectively. In the HRS, frail persons had a 41% lower likelihood of recovery than the nonfrail.

CONCLUSIONS

Frailty is an independent predictor of poor recovery from disability among nondisabled older adults. These findings validate frailty as a marker of decreased resilience and may offer opportunities for individualized interventions and geriatric care based on frailty assessment.

Benefit-to-Risk Balance of Weight Loss Interventions in Older Adults with Obesity

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

Obesity in the older adult is a burgeoning health epidemic that leads to increased morbidity, disability, and institutionalization. This review presents a brief overview of geriatric-specific consequences of obesity by highlighting the risks and benefits of intentional weight loss.

RECENT FINDINGS

Intentional weight loss reduces the extent of adiposity-related illnesses, yet the approach in older adults is fraught with challenges. Interventions combining caloric restriction and physical exercise (aerobic and resistance) maximize fat loss and minimize loss of muscle and bone. Interventions are also effective at improving physical function, reducing medication burden, and improving symptomatic osteoarthritis in this population. Approaches can mitigate the risks of isolated caloric restriction on muscle and bone in a safe and effective manner. Effective weight loss strategies should be considered in older adults. While there are potential risks, practical clinical approaches can minimize the potential harms while maximizing their benefits.

Longitudinal change in physical functioning and dropout due to death among the oldest old: a comparison of three methods of analysis

Longitudinal studies examining changes in physical functioning with advancing age among very old people are plagued by high death rates, which can lead to biased estimates. This study was conducted to analyse changes in physical functioning among the oldest old with three distinct methods which differ in how they handle dropout due to death. The sample consisted of 3992 persons aged 90 or over in the Vitality 90+ Study who were followed up on average for 2.5 years (range 0–13 years). A generalized estimating equation (GEE) with independent ‘working’ correlation, a linear mixed-effects (LME) model and a joint model consisting of longitudinal and survival submodels were used to estimate the effect of age on physical functioning over 13 years of follow-up. We observed significant age-related decline in physical functioning, which furthermore accelerated significantly with age. The average rate of decline differed markedly between the models: the GEE-based estimate for linear decline among survivors was about one-third of the average individual decline in the joint model and half the decline indicated by the LME model. In conclusion, the three methods yield substantially different views on decline in physical functioning: the GEE model may be useful for considering the effect of intervention measures on the outcome among living people, whereas the LME model is biased regarding studying outcomes associated with death. The joint model may be valuable for predicting the future characteristics of the oldest old and planning elderly care as life expectancy continues gradually to rise.

Fraying Families: Demographic Divergence in the Parental Safety Net

Parents are increasingly supporting their children well into adulthood and often serve as a safety net during periods of economic and marital instability. Improving life expectancies and health allows parents to provide for their children longer, but greater union dissolution among parents can weaken the safety net they can create for their adult children. Greater mortality, nonmarital childbearing, and divorce among families with lower socioeconomic status may be reinforcing inequalities across generations. This article examines two cohorts aged 25-49 from the 1988 (n = 7,246) and 2013 (n = 7,014) Panel Study of Income Dynamics Roster and Transfers Files. In 1988, adults with a college degree had two surviving parents living together for 1.8 years longer than nongraduates. This disparity increased to 6.8 years in 2013. This five-year increase in disparity was driven predominantly by higher rates of union dissolution among parents of adults with less education. Growing differences in paternal mortality also contributed to the rise in inequality.

Predictive Capacity of Frailty Phenotype Toward Patterns of Disability Identified Using Latent Class Analysis

OBJECTIVES

Frailty phenotype (FP) has low sensitivity toward the identification of older people who will lose 1 or more activities of daily living. Nevertheless, the definition of disability in terms of activities of daily living may not resemble the pattern of functional impairment occurring during aging. The aim of this study was to examine the discriminative capacity of the FP toward the identification of patterns of disabilities in an extended list of tasks, identified among community-dwelling older people.

DESIGN

Longitudinal cohort study.

SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS

We included 997 persons age 65 years and older selected from the Invecchiare in Chianti (InCHIANTI) Study population.

MEASURES

Using latent class analysis, we assessed the pattern of 3-year changes in 24 functional tasks. Then, we calculated the discriminative capacity of the FP for each pattern of disability. Analyses were stratified by sex.

RESULTS

In both men and women, we recognized 3 classes: stable function; disability in complex tasks; and global functional disability. Among women, ability of FP to identify persons in global functional disability showed sensitivity = 0.42, specificity = 0.98, positive and negative predictive values 0.75 and 0.91; the corresponding values for prediction of disability in complex tasks were 0.13, 0.98, 0.68, and 0.75. Similar results were obtained among men.

CONCLUSIONS/IMPLICATIONS

Over 3 years, older people of the InCHIANTI population remained largely functional stable, some persons developed deficiency in complex tasks, and a minority developed global functional disability. Trying to predict these 3 patterns may be useful for the care of older people in order to promote individualized interventions to reduce the burden of disabilities and their consequences. To this purpose, FP showed a fairly good capacity to identify people at risk of functional decline, but further studies are needed to identify instruments with better prognostic capacity.

The Joint Impact of Age at Death and Dementia on Long-Term Care Use in the Last Years of Life: Changes From 1996 to 2013 in Finland

Welfare states increasingly rely on aging in place policies and have cut back on institutional long-term care (LTC) provision. Simultaneously, the major determinants of LTC use, that is, dementia and living to very old age, are increasing. We investigated how increasing longevity and concomitant dementia were associated with changes in round-the-clock LTC use in the last 5 years of life between 1996 and 2013. Retrospective data drawn from national registers included all those who died aged 70+ in 2007 and 2013, plus a 40% random sample from 2001 (N = 86,554). A generalized estimating equations (GEE) were used to estimate the association of dementia and age with LTC use during three study periods 1996-2001, 2002-2007, and 2008-2013. Between the study periods, the total number of days spent in LTC increased by around 2 months. Higher ages at death and the increased number of persons with dementia contributed to this increase. The group of the most frequent LTC users, that is, people aged 90+ with or without dementia, grew the most in size, yet their LTC use decreased. The implications of very old age and concomitant dementia for care needs must be acknowledged to guarantee an adequate quantity and quality of care.

Oral health trajectories in community-dwelling older adults in the last 3 years of life

BACKGROUND

Systemic health and physical, cognitive, and social function gradually decline at the end of life. How oral health change at the end of life in community-dwelling older adults remains unknown, increasing the difficulty in treatment planning for these individuals.

METHODS

A total of 250 community-dwelling decedents of a longitudinal study were included in the analysis. Decedents' clinical and interview data collected at baseline, 18, 36, 60, and 84 months were linked to their death dates and plotted on an inverted time scale to study their oral health changes in the 3 years prior to death. Mixed effect models with random intercepts and slopes of months from death and sociodemographic variables were used to model the subjective and objective oral health trajectories in the last 3 years of life. The association of the change in the outcomes with a linear trend of months from death were assessed using the F-test.

RESULTS

Number of missing teeth was significantly associated with a linear trend of months from death. With every month in proximity to death, the expected number of missing teeth increased by 0.03 (SE = 0.004; p < 0.001), resulting in an average of 1.08 missing teeth in 3 years. Among subjective outcomes, the odds of good versus poor or "neither" self-rated systemic health (p = 0.009) and mouth appearance (p = 0.008) significantly decreased as death approached.

CONCLUSION

Although other oral health measures remained relatively stable, tooth loss and dissatisfaction with mouth appearance steadily increased in community-dwelling older adults as death approached. These changes were gradual and parallel the end-of-life general health decline.

Disability pathways preceding death in England by socio-economic status

The role of socio-economic status (SES) in the last years of life is an under-researched aspect of health inequalities. This study examines disability patterns preceding death using data from the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing. We use repeated measures latent class analysis to identify the most common pathways preceding death in terms of walking ability and limitations in activities of daily living. Three pathways emerge: one characterized by consistently low disability; a second by a constant high level of functional limitations; and a third by medium impairment. We examine how different SES indicators predict belonging to each disability pathway. Conditional on income, higher wealth is associated with a lower likelihood of belonging to the high disability pathway. Contrary to our expectations, we find no educational gradient in the pathways preceding death. Health inequalities in the last years of life seem to exist especially between individuals with different levels of wealth.

Physical Activity, the Compression of Morbidity, and the Health of the Elderly

The Compression of Morbidity hypothesis envisions a potential reduction of overall morbidity, and of health care costs, now heavily concentrated in the senior years, by compression of morbidity between an increasing age of onset of disability and the age of death, increasing perhaps more slowly1,2. For this scenario to be able to be widely achieved, largely through prevention of disease and disability, we need to identify variables which predict future ill health, modify these variables, and document the improvements in health that result3. Physical activity is perhaps the most obvious of the variables which might reduce overall lifetime morbidity.

(Where) Is Functional Decline Isolating? Disordered Environments and the Onset of Disability

The onset of disability is believed to undermine social connectedness and raise the risk of social isolation, yet spatial environments are seldom considered in this process. This study examines whether unruly home and neighborhood conditions intensify the association between disability onset and several dimensions of social connectedness. I incorporate longitudinal data from the National Social Life, Health, and Aging Project, which contains environmental evaluations conducted by trained observers ( N = 1,558). Results from Poisson, ordinal logistic, and linear regression models reveal heterogeneous consequences of disablement: disability onset was associated with reduced core network size, fewer friends, lower likelihood of social interaction, and less overall social connectedness-though mainly when accompanied by higher levels of household disorder. There was limited evidence that neighborhood disorder moderated consequences of disability. Findings point to the importance of the home as an environmental resource and underscore important contextual contingencies in the isolating consequences of disability.

Disability Experience and Measurement

Top themes of international research on disability in the past three decades are discussed: disability dynamics, buffers and barriers for disability, disability trends, and disability among very old persons. Each theme is highlighted by research examples. Turning to measurement, I discuss traditional measures of disability, new longer and shorter ones, and composites like disability-free life expectancy, noting their merits. Contemporary models of disability are presented, ranging from visual images to formal theories. The article ends on how scientists can facilitate movement of disability science into health care practice and policy.

Three Year Functional Trajectories Among Old Age Survivors and Decedents: Dying Eliminates a Racial Disparity

BACKGROUND

Long-term trajectories of disability comparing decedents and survivors and differences by race have not been assessed.

OBJECTIVE

To examine self-reported difficulty in walking a quarter mile and the need for assistance with activities of daily living (ADL) beginning 3 years before death among decedents and age- and gender-matched survivors.

DESIGN

A case-control sample drawn from the Health, Aging and Body Composition Study (Health ABC). Data were collected between 1997 and 2015.

PARTICIPANTS

Of the 1991 participants who died by the end of the study, 1410 were interviewed for 3 years prior to death, including an interview 6 months before dying. Of these, 1379 decedents were successfully matched by age and gender with 1379 survivors and tracked over the same 3-year period.

MAIN MEASURES

Self-reported difficulty walking a quarter mile and the ability to perform activities of daily living without assistance (bathing, dressing, transferring).

KEY RESULTS

Decedents (mean age at death, 84) increased in mobility disability from 44.1% 3 years before death to 69.4% 6 months before death and in ADL disability from 32.9% to 58.4%. Among survivors, mobility disability increased from 31.4% to 40.7% and ADL disability from 17.4% to 31.4%. The proportion of decedents and survivors with mobility disability differed significantly in adjusted models at all assessment points (p < 0.0001). African-American survivors were significantly more disabled than White survivors at all points (p < 0.0001), but trajectories of disability among decedents did not differ by race in the last 18 months of life (p = 0.35).

CONCLUSIONS

Trajectories of self-reported disability differ between survivors and decedents. Older adults who died were more disabled 3 years before death and also had a greater risk of increasing disability over each subsequent 6-month assessment. The gap in disability between African Americans and Whites was erased in the final 1 to 1.5 years before death.

Changes in older people's care profiles during the last 2 years of life, 1996-1998 and 2011-2013: a retrospective nationwide study in Finland

OBJECTIVES

The time of death is increasingly postponed to a very high age. How this change affects the use of care services at the population level is unknown. This study analyses the care profiles of older people during their last 2 years of life, and investigates how these profiles differ for the study years 1996-1998 and 2011-2013.

DESIGN

Retrospective cross-sectional nationwide data drawn from the Care Register for Health Care, the Care Register for Social Care and the Causes of Death Register. The data included the use of hospital and long-term care services during the last 2 years of life for all those who died in 1998 and in 2013 at the age of ≥70 years in Finland.

METHODS

We constructed four care profiles using two criteria: (1) number of days in round-the-clock care (vs at home) in the last 2 years of life and (2) care transitions during the last 6 months of life (ie, end-of-life care transitions).

RESULTS

Between the study periods, the average age at death and the number of diagnoses increased. Most older people (1998: 64.3%, 2013: 59.3%) lived at home until their last months of life (profile 2) after which they moved into hospital or long-term care facilities. This profile became less common and the profiles with a high use of care services became more common (profiles 3 and 4 together in 1998: 25.0%, in 2013: 30.9%). People with dementia, women and the oldest old were over-represented in the latter profiles. In both study periods, fewer than one in ten stayed at home for the whole last 6 months (profile 1).

CONCLUSIONS

Postponement of death to a very old age may translate into more severe disability in the last months or years of life. Care systems must be prepared for longer periods of long-term care services needed at the end of life.

Safety, pharmacokinetics and pharmacological effects of the selective androgen receptor modulator, GSK2881078, in healthy men and postmenopausal women

AIM

Selective androgen receptor modulators (SARMs) induce anabolic effects on muscle without the adverse effects of androgenic steroids. In this first-in-human study, we report the safety, tolerability, pharmacokinetics (PK) and pharmacodynamics of the SARM GSK2881078.

METHODS

In Part A, healthy young men (n = 10) received a single dose of study drug (0 mg, 0.05 mg, 0.1 mg, 0.2 mg GSK2881078 or matching-placebo). In Part B, repeat-dose cohorts in men (n = 65) were 0.05 mg, 0.2 mg then 0.08 mg, 0.24 mg, 0.48 mg, 0.75 mg, or placebo; in women (n = 24) they were 0.24 mg, 0.35 mg, or placebo (7 days for 0.5 mg, 14 days for other doses).

RESULTS

PK analysis showed dose-proportional increases in exposure and a long >100-h half-life. No significant effects on vital signs, electrocardiograms, cardiac telemetry or standard clinical laboratory studies were observed. A dose-response effect was observed on lowering both high-density lipoprotein and sex hormone-binding globulin. In females at 0.35 mg, differences from placebo were -0.518 (95% confidence interval: -0.703, -0.334) mmol l-1 and -39.1 (-48.5, -29.7) nmol l-1 , respectively. Women showed greater sensitivity to these parameters at lower doses than men. Drug-related adverse events (AEs) were mild. One woman developed a drug rash and was withdrawn. Two men had elevated creatine phosphokinase after physical exertion during follow-up. A serious AE occurred in a subject on placebo.

CONCLUSIONS

These data demonstrate pharmacodynamic effects with acceptable tolerability and support further clinical evaluation of this SARM.

The longitudinal relationship between mental health disorders and chronic disease for older adults: a population-based study

OBJECTIVE

Although mental health disorders in older adults are common, their relationship with chronic disease and the influence of chronic disease on the development of mental health disorders over time is not well understood. This longitudinal study investigated the change in status of mental health disorders and chronic disease, as well as their interrelationships, over time.

METHODS

Participants included community-dwelling older adults living in Taiwan, aged 65 years or older, who completed six waves of survey interviews. Mental health disorders were scored using the Short Psychiatric Evaluation Schedule, and chronic disease(s) status was recorded during consecutive biennial data collection waves. The autoregressive latent trajectory model and parallel latent growth curve model were used for data analysis.

RESULTS

The study findings suggest that in older people pre-existing mental health disorders and/or chronic disease(s) will predispose them to developing significantly more mental health disorders and/or chronic diseases respectively. The study findings also suggest that pre-existing mental health disorders can significantly contribute to the development of chronic disease over time, and that pre-existing chronic disease(s) significantly can contribute to the development of mental health disorders over time, indicating a reciprocal interrelationship.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study findings suggest that it in addition to monitoring and treating chronic disease(s) in older people, it is also important to monitor and treat their mental health disorders. Doing so will result in overall better health outcomes and will facilitate a better quality of life as they age. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Role of Osteoarthritis, Comorbidity, and Pain in Determining Functional Limitations in Older Populations: European Project on Osteoarthritis

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the role of comorbidity and pain in the association between hip/knee osteoarthritis (OA) with self-reported as well as performance-based functional limitations in a general elderly population.

METHODS

We analyzed the data of 2,942 individuals, ages between 65 and 85 years, who participated in the European Project on Osteoarthritis, which was made up of 6 European cohorts (from Germany, Italy, The Netherlands, Spain, Sweden, and the UK). Outcomes included self-reported physical function measured by the Western Ontario and McMaster Universities Osteoarthritis Index (WOMAC), and the participants' performance-based physical function was evaluated using the walking test.

RESULTS

While comorbidity did not affect the significant association between hip/knee OA and physical function limitations found in the participants, pain reduced the effect of OA on self-reported physical function, and it cancelled the effect of OA on the walking test. Obesity, anxiety, depression, and cardiovascular diseases were associated with the worst WOMAC scores. Obesity, cognitive impairment, depression, peripheral artery disease, and stroke were associated with the worst walking times.

CONCLUSION

These findings demonstrate that while comorbidity is strongly and independently associated with functional limitations, it does not affect the OA-physical function association. Hip/knee OA is associated with self-reported impairment in physical function, which was only partially mediated by pain. Its association with physical function, as evaluated by the walking test, was instead completely mediated by pain.

Age of Migration Life Expectancy with Functional Limitations and Morbidity in Mexican Americans

The U.S. Mexican American population enjoys longer life expectancies relative to other racial/ethnic groups but is disproportionately affected by chronic conditions and functional limitations. Studying the impact of heterogeneity in age, time and other characteristics of migration among older Mexican Americans can inform our understanding of health disparities and healthcare needs in later-life. This research used 20 years of data from the Hispanic Established Populations for the Epidemiologic Study of the Elderly to assess the proportion of life spent with functional limitations and one or more morbidity (according to age of migration and sex) in the U.S. Mexican-American population. The results indicate that early-life and late-life migrant women spend more years with Performance-Oriented Mobility Assessment limitations than U.S.-born women. Conversely, midlife migrant women were not statistically different from U.S.-born women in years spent disabled. In men, midlife migrants had longer life expectancies and had more disability-free years than U.S.-born men. For morbidity, late-life migrant women spent a significantly smaller proportion of their elderly years with morbidity than U.S.-born women, but late-life migrant men spent more years with morbidity than U.S.-born men. These findings illustrate that older Mexican Americans in the United States are heterogeneous in nativity and health outcomes. More years spent disabled or unhealthy may result in greater burden on family members and greater dependence on public resources. These findings have implications for the development of social and health policies to appropriately target the medical conditions and disabilities of older Mexican Americans entering late life.

Stereotactic Body Radiation Therapy in Octo- and Nonagenarians for the Treatment of Early-Stage Lung Cancer

PURPOSE

To determine the safety and efficacy of lung stereotactic body radiation therapy (SBRT) in octo- and nonagenarians and to compare their outcomes with those of younger patients.

METHODS AND MATERIALS

Patients with primary lung cancer treated with SBRT were identified from a multi-institutional (5 institutions) database of 1083 cases. Details of patient factors, treatment specifics, toxicity, and clinical outcomes were extracted from the database. All events were calculated from the end of radiation therapy. Estimates of local recurrence, regional recurrence, and distant metastases were calculated using the competing risk method. Cause-specific survival (CSS) and overall survival (OS) were calculated using the Kaplan-Meier method. Outcomes were compared for those aged <70, 70 to 79, and ≥80 years. Univariable and multivariable analyses were performed to determine associations with CSS and OS in patients aged ≥80 years.

RESULTS

The median (range) follow-up was 1.7 (1-10) years, and median age was 75 (41-94) years. There were 305 patients aged <70 years (28%), 448 aged 70 to 79 years (41%), and 330 aged ≥80 years (30%). There was no difference in 2-year local recurrence (4.2% vs 5.4% vs 3.7%, respectively, P=.7), regional recurrence (10.4% vs 7.8% vs 5.3%, P=.1), distant metastases (12.2% vs 7.7% vs 9.5%, P=.2), or CSS (90.6% vs 90.3% vs 90.4%, P=.6). Those aged ≥80 years had significantly lower 2-year OS (73.6% vs 67.2% vs 63.3%, P<.01). The grade 3+ pneumonitis rate was 1.3% versus 1.6% versus 1.5% (P=1.0) in patients aged <70, 70 to 79, and ≥80 years, respectively. The 90-day mortality rates for patients aged <70, 70 to 79, and ≥80 years were 1.3%, 2.5%, and 2.4% (P=.01), respectively. In patients aged ≥80 years OS was associated with T category (hazard ratio 1.7; P<.01).

CONCLUSION

Stereotactic body radiation therapy is a safe treatment modality in elderly patients (aged ≥80 years). Despite larger tumor volumes, the tumor control outcomes were comparable to those in younger patients treated with SBRT. All patients with early-stage lung cancer, regardless of age, should be considered for treatment with SBRT.

Cause of Death and Active Life Expectancy in the Older Population of the United States

This study investigates how the major causes of death end active and inactive life among older Americans. Based on data from the Longitudinal Study of Aging, a multistate life-table model of individuals' age-graded mortality and disability experiences reveals that many, and sometimes most, of the deaths occurring among the elderly population happen when people are active relatively close to death. This pattern is especially evident for men. Despite differences between active and inactive elders of a given age in the length of inactive life, few differences occur in the causes of death. Simulations show that many of the gains in life expectancy via the reduction in major diseases are felt in terms of increased active life, especially among the young-old and men. These results point to possible mechanisms in which improvements in mortality extend active life.

The effect of trends in health and longevity on health services use by older adults

Background

The effect of population aging on future health services use depends on the relationship between longevity gains and health. Whether further gains in life expectancy will be paired by improvements in health is uncertain. We therefore analyze the effect of population ageing on health services use under different health scenarios. We focus on the possibly diverging trends between different dimensions of health and their effect on health services use.

Methods

Using longitudinal data on health and health services use, a latent Markov model has been estimated that includes different dimensions of health. We use this model to perform a simulation study and analyze the health dynamics that drive the effect of population aging. We simulate three health scenarios on the relationship between longevity and health (expansion of morbidity, compression of morbidity, and the dynamic equilibrium scenario). We use the scenarios to predict costs of health services use in the Netherlands between 2010 and 2050.

Results

Hospital use is predicted to decline after 2040, whereas long-term care will continue to rise up to 2050. Considerable differences in expenditure growth rates between scenarios with the same life expectancy but different trends in health are found. Compression of morbidity generally leads to the lowest growth. The effect of additional life expectancy gains within the same health scenario is relatively small for hospital care, but considerable for long-term care.

Conclusions

By comparing different health scenarios resulting in the same life expectancy, we show that health improvements do contain costs when they decrease morbidity but not mortality. This suggests that investing in healthy aging can contribute to containing health expenditure growth.

Sarcopenia, sarcopenic obesity, and functional impairments in older adults: National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys 1999-2004

The Foundation for the National Institutes of Health Sarcopenia Project validated cutpoints for appendicular lean mass (ALM) to identify individuals with functional impairment. We hypothesized that the prevalence of sarcopenia and sarcopenic obesity would be similar based on the different Foundation for the National Institutes of Health criteria, increase with age, and be associated with risk of impairment limitations. We identified 4984 subjects at least 60 years of age from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys 1999-2004. Sarcopenia was defined using ALM (men <19.75 kg, women <15.02 kg) and ALM adjusted for body mass index (BMI; men <0.789 kg/m2, women <0.512 kg/m2). Sarcopenic obesity is defined as subjects fulfilling the criteria for sarcopenia and obesity by body fat (men ≥25%, women ≥35%). Prevalence rates of both sarcopenia and sarcopenic obesity were evaluated with respect to sex, age category (60-69, 70-79, and >80 years) and race. We assessed the association of physical limitations, basic and instrumental activities of daily living and sarcopenia status. The mean age was 70.5 years in men and 71.6 years in women. Half (50.8%; n = 2531) were female, and mean BMI was 28 kg/m2 in both sexes. Appendicular lean mass was higher in men than in women (24.1 vs. 16.3; P < .001), but fat mass was lower (30.9 vs. 42.0; P < .001). In men, sarcopenia prevalence was 16.0% and 27.8% using the ALM and ALM/BMI criteria. In women, prevalence was 40.5% and 19.3% using the ALM and ALM/BMI criteria. Sarcopenia was associated with a 1.10 (0.86-1.41) and 0.93 (0.74-1.16), and 1.46 (1.10-1.94), and 2.13 (1.41-3.20) risk of physical limitations using the ALM and ALM/BMI definitions in men and women, respectively. Prevalence of sarcopenia and sarcopenic obesity varies greatly, and a uniform definition is needed to identify and characterize these high-risk populations.

Dynapenic obesity and the effect on long-term physical function and quality of life: data from the osteoarthritis initiative

Background

Obesity is associated with functional impairment, institutionalization, and increased mortality risk in elders. Dynapenia is defined as reduced muscle strength and is a known independent predictor of adverse events and disability. The synergy between dynapenia and obesity leads to worse outcomes than either independently. We identified the impact of dynapenic obesity in a cohort at risk for and with knee osteoarthritis on function.

Methods

We identified adults aged ≥ 60 years from the Osteoarthritis Initiative. Obesity was defined as a body mass index ≥ 30 kg/m². Dynapenia was classified using the lowest sex-specific tertile of knee extensor strength. Participants were grouped according to obesity and knee strength: dynapenic obesity; dynapenia without obesity; obesity without dynapenia; and no dynapenia nor obesity. Four-year data was available. Self-reported activities of daily living (ADL) were assessed at follow-up. Outcomes of gait speed, 400 m walk distance, Late-life Disability and Function Index (LLFDI), and Short-Form (SF)-12 were analyzed using mixed effects and logistic regression models.

Results

Of 2025 subjects (56.3 % female), mean age was 68.2 years and 182 (24.1 %) had dynapenic obesity. Dynapenic obesity was associated with reduced gait speed, LLFDI-limitations, and SF-12 physical score in both sexes and in the 400 m walk in men only (all p < 0.001). A time*group interaction was significant for dynapenic obese men in the 400 m walk distance only. Odds of ADL limitations in dynapenic obesity was OR 2.23 [1.42:3.50], in dynapenia 0.98 [0.66:1.46], and in obesity 1.98 [1.39:2.80] in males. In females, odds were 2.45 [1.63:3.68], 1.60 [1.15:2.22], and 1.47 [1.06:2.04] respectively.

Conclusion

Dynapenic obesity may be a risk factor for functional decline suggesting the need to target subjects with low knee strength and obesity.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12877-015-0118-9) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Residential relocations among older people over the course of more than 10 years

OBJECTIVE

The objective of this study was to describe the rates of residential relocations over the course of 10.5 years and evaluate differences in these relocation rates according to gender and decedent status.

DESIGN

Prospective, longitudinal study with monthly telephone follow-up for up to 126 months.

SETTING

Greater New Haven, CT.

PARTICIPANTS

There were 754 participants, aged 70 years or older, who were initially community-living and nondisabled in their basic activities of daily living.

MEASUREMENTS

Residential location was assessed during monthly interviews and included community, assisted living facility, and nursing home. A residential relocation was defined as a change of residential location for at least 1 week and included relocations within (eg, community-community) or between (community- assisted living) locations. We calculated the rates of relocations per 1000 patient-months and evaluated differences by gender and decedent status.

RESULTS

Sixty-six percent of participants had at least one residential relocation (range 0-12). Women had lower rates of relocations from nursing home to community (rate ratio [RR] 0.59, P = .02); otherwise, there were no gender differences. Decedents had higher rates of relocation from community to assisted living (RR 1.71, P = .002), from community to nursing home (RR 3.64, P < .001), between assisted living facilities (RR 3.65, P < .001), and from assisted living to nursing home (RR 2.5, P < .001). In decedents, relocations from community to nursing home (RR 3.58, P < .001) and from assisted living to nursing home (RR 3.3, P < .001) were most often observed in the last year of life.

CONCLUSIONS

Most older people relocated at least once during 10.5 years of follow-up. Women had lower rates of relocation from nursing home to community. Decedents were more likely to relocate to a residential location providing a higher level of assistance, compared with nondecedents. Residential relocations were most common in the last year of life.

Preliminary development and validation of a new end-of-life patient-reported outcome measure assessing the ability of patients to finalise their affairs at the end of life

Introduction

The ability of patients to finalise their affairs at the end of life is an often neglected aspect of quality of life (QOL) measurement in palliative care effectiveness research despite compelling evidence of the high value patients place on this domain.

Objective

This paper describes the preliminary development and evaluation of a new, single-item, end-of-life patient-reported outcome measure (EOLPRO) designed to capture changes in the ability of patients to finalise their affairs at the end of life.

Methods

Cognitive interviews with purposively sampled Australian palliative care patients (N = 9) were analysed thematically to explore content validity. Simultaneously, secondary analysis of data from a randomised controlled trial comparing ketamine and placebo for the management of cancer pain (N = 185) evaluated: construct validity; test-retest reliability; and responsiveness.

Results

Preliminary findings suggest patients interpret the new measure consistently. The EOLPRO captures the ability to complete physical tasks and finalise practical matters although it is unclear whether emotional tasks or resolution of relationship issues are considered. Personal and financial affairs should be separated to allow for differences in ability for these two types of affairs. The significant correlation between performance status and EOLPRO scores (r = 0.41, p<0.01, n = 137) and expected relationships between EOLPRO and proximity to death and constipation demonstrated construct validity. Pre- and post-treatment EOLPRO scores moderately agreed (n = 14, κ = 0.52 [95% CI 0.19, 0.84]) supporting reliability. The measure’s apparent lack of sensitivity to discriminate between treatment responders and non-responders may be confounded.

Conclusion

Based on the preliminary findings, the EOLPRO should be separated into ‘personal’ and ‘financial’ affairs with further testing suggested, particularly to verify coverage and responsiveness. Initial evaluation suggests that the single-item EOLPRO is a useful addition to QOL outcome measurement in palliative care effectiveness research because common palliative care specific QOL questionnaires do not include or explicitly capture this domain.

Meaningful outcome measures in cardiac surgery

The most common cardiac surgical procedures are coronary artery bypass graft surgery and aortic or mitral valve repair or replacement. Underlying conditions include coronary artery disease and heart failure, manifesting as exertional angina, dyspnea, and poor exercise tolerance. The major goals of surgery are to alleviate symptoms and improve patient survival. These, therefore, should inform the choice of primary outcome measures in clinical studies enrolling patients undergoing cardiac surgery. Studies focusing on surrogate outcome measures are relied on all too often. Many are of questionable significance and often have no convincing relationship with patient outcome. Traditional "hard endpoint" outcome measures include serious complications and death with the former including myocardial infarction (MI) and stroke. Such serious adverse outcomes are commonly collected in registries, but because they occur infrequently, they need to be large to reliably detect true associations and treatment effects. For this reason, some investigators combine several outcomes into a single composite endpoint. Cardiovascular trials commonly use major adverse cardiac events (MACEs) as a composite primary endpoint. However, there is no standard definition for MACE. Most include MI, stroke, and death; others include rehospitalization for heart failure, revascularization, cardiac arrest, or bleeding complications. An influential trial in noncardiac surgery found that perioperative beta-blockers reduced the risk of MI but increased the risk of stroke and death. Such conflicting findings challenge the veracity of such composite endpoints and raise a far more important question: which of these endpoints, or even others that were unmeasured, are most important to a patient recovering from surgery? Given the primary aims of cardiac surgery are to relieve symptoms and improve good quality survival, it is disability-free survival that is the ultimate outcome measure. The question then becomes: what is disability and how should it be quantified after cardiac surgery?

Dental caries in older adults in the last year of life

OBJECTIVES

To examine dental caries severity (measured by number of carious teeth) in older adults in the last year of life.

DESIGN

Cross-sectional study based on dental records.

SETTING

Community-based geriatric dental clinic.

PARTICIPANTS

One thousand two hundred sixteen individuals aged 65 and older, including 168 individuals in the last year of life (e.g., individuals died within 1 year after their new-patient examinations).

MEASUREMENTS

Information on socioeconomic, medical history, medication, functional status, and oral health measures, including number of carious teeth, was abstracted from dental records. End-of-life status was determined using the National Death Index. Propensities of death were calculated using a logistic regression and then adjusted together with mobility and oral care function in the multivariable regression model to examine the effect of end-of-life status on dental caries.

RESULTS

Caries severity differed in end-of-life participants with different oral care function. Of those needing help with oral care, end-of-life participants had only a slightly higher and nonstatistically significant risk (7.5 vs 6.1, adjusted incidence density ratio (IDR) = 1.12, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.85-1.48) of having more carious teeth than those not in the last year of life. On the other hand, caries severity was lower in end-of-life participants without impaired oral care function (IDR = 0.53, 95% CI = 0.30-0.92).

CONCLUSION

Oral care function modifies the association between caries severity and end-of-life status. Individuals who could maintain oral hygiene independently had a low level of caries at the end of life, however, dental caries had increased before functionally dependent individuals entered their last year of life.

Mobility limitation as a predictor of inpatient care in the last year of life among community-living older people

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Need for inpatient care increases toward the end of life. We studied whether mobility limitation assessed approximately 5.8 years prior to death predicts the number of days in care during the last year of life.

METHODS

A population-based, prospective study with interviews conducted, on average, 5.8 years prior to death. Data on vital status and health care use were register-based. Participants consisted of 846 persons who had died between 1989 and 2004 at the age of 66-98 years. Participants were categorized as having mobility limitation if, at baseline, they reported difficulties in walking 2 km or climbing one flight of stairs.

RESULTS

Mean ± standard deviation of age at death for men was 81.6 ± 6.2 years and the median number of days in inpatient care in the last year of life was 38.5 days. For women, the corresponding figures were 84.1 ± 6.1 years and 66.0 days. Only 11% of men and 7% of women had no inpatient care in the last year of life. The adjusted incidence rate ratio for all-cause inpatient care in the last year of life was 1.53 (95% CI 1.09-2.16) among men with mobility limitation compared to those with intact mobility. Among women, mobility limitation did not increase the risk for all-cause inpatient care.

CONCLUSION

Mobility limitation (vs. intact mobility) at 5.8 years prior to death markedly increases the need of inpatient care in the last year of life among men.

Relation of pulse pressure to long-distance gait speed in community-dwelling older adults: findings from the LIFE-P study

Background

Reduced gait speed is associated with falls, late-life disability, hospitalization/institutionalization and cardiovascular morbidity and mortality. Aging is also accompanied by a widening of pulse pressure (PP) that contributes to ventricular-vascular uncoupling. The purpose of this study was to test the hypothesis that PP is associated with long-distance gait speed in community-dwelling older adults in the Lifestyle Interventions and Independence for Elders Pilot (LIFE-P) study.

Methods

Brachial blood pressure and 400-meter gait speed (average speed maintained over a 400-meter walk at “usual” pace) were assessed in 424 older adults between the ages of 70–89 yrs at risk for mobility disability (mean age = 77 yrs; 31% male). PP was calculated as systolic blood pressure (BP) – diastolic BP.

Results

Patients with a history of heart failure and stroke (n = 42) were excluded leaving 382 participants for final analysis. When categorized into tertiles of PP, participants within the highest PP tertile had significantly slower gait speed than those within the lowest PP tertile (p<0.05). Following stepwise multiple regression, PP was significantly and inversely associated with 400-meter gait speed (p<0.05). Other significant predictors of gait speed included: handgrip strength, body weight, age and history of diabetes mellitus (p<0.05). Mean arterial pressure, systolic BP and diastolic BP were not predictors of gait speed.

Conclusions

Pulse pressure is associated long-distance gait speed in community-dwelling older adults. Vascular senescence and altered ventricular-vascular coupling may be associated with the deterioration of mobility and physical function in older adults.

Healthiness of survival and quality of death among oldest old in China using fuzzy sets

OBJECTIVE

To investigate healthiness of survival and quality of death among oldest-old Chinese.

METHODS

Grade of Membership (GoM) method is applied to fulfill our goals using a nationwide longitudinal survey in China.

RESULTS

GoM method generates six pure types/profiles for healthiness of survival and five profiles/types for quality of death. The authors combine these 11 profiles into 4 groups. On average, a Chinese oldest old from 1998 to 2000 had 48% probability of experiencing healthy survival, with 30% experiencing unhealthy survival, 11% having nonsuffering death, and 11% having suffering death. Similar memberships of dying with nonsuffering conditions are found across ages among the decedents. Men have a higher probability of being in healthy survival and nonsuffering death as compared to women. Marriage, high social connections, nonsmoking, and regular exercise are important contributors to healthy survival and quality of death.

DISCUSSION

It is possible to live to ages 100 and beyond without much suffering.

The theory and practice of active aging

“Active aging” connotes a radically nontraditional paradigm of aging which posits possible improvement in health despite increasing longevity. The new paradigm is based upon postponing functional declines more than mortality declines and compressing morbidity into a shorter period later in life. This paradigm (Compression of Morbidity) contrasts with the old, where increasing longevity inevitably leads to increasing morbidity. We have focused our research on controlled longitudinal studies of aging. The Runners and Community Controls study began at age 58 in 1984 and the Health Risk Cohorts study at age 70 in 1986. We noted that disability was postponed by 14 to 16 years in vigorous exercisers compared with controls and postponed by 10 years in low-risk cohorts compared with higher risk. Mortality was also postponed, but too few persons had died for valid comparison of mortality and morbidity. With the new data presented here, age at death at 30% mortality is postponed by 7 years in Runners and age at death at 50% (median) mortality by 3.3 years compared to controls. Postponement of disability is more than double that of mortality in both studies. These differences increase over time, occur in all subgroups, and persist after statistical adjustment.

Loneliness in older persons: a predictor of functional decline and death

BACKGROUND

Loneliness is a common source of distress, suffering, and impaired quality of life in older persons. We examined the relationship between loneliness, functional decline, and death in adults older than 60 years in the United States.

METHODS

This is a longitudinal cohort study of 1604 participants in the psychosocial module of the Health and Retirement Study, a nationally representative study of older persons. Baseline assessment was in 2002 and follow-up assessments occurred every 2 years until 2008. Subjects were asked if they (1) feel left out, (2) feel isolated, or (3) lack companionship. Subjects were categorized as not lonely if they responded hardly ever to all 3 questions and lonely if they responded some of the time or often to any of the 3 questions. The primary outcomes were time to death over 6 years and functional decline over 6 years on the following 4 measures: difficulty on an increased number of activities of daily living (ADL), difficulty in an increased number of upper extremity tasks, decline in mobility, or increased difficulty in stair climbing. Multivariate analyses adjusted for demographic variables, socioeconomic status, living situation, depression, and various medical conditions.

RESULTS

The mean age of subjects was 71 years. Fifty-nine percent were women; 81% were white, 11%, black, and 6%, Hispanic; and 18% lived alone. Among the elderly participants, 43% reported feeling lonely. Loneliness was associated with all outcome measures. Lonely subjects were more likely to experience decline in ADL (24.8% vs 12.5%; adjusted risk ratio [RR], 1.59; 95% CI, 1.23-2.07); develop difficulties with upper extremity tasks (41.5% vs 28.3%; adjusted RR, 1.28; 95% CI, 1.08-1.52); experience decline in mobility (38.1% vs 29.4%; adjusted RR, 1.18; 95% CI, 0.99-1.41); or experience difficulty in climbing (40.8% vs 27.9%; adjusted RR, 1.31; 95% CI, 1.10-1.57). Loneliness was associated with an increased risk of death (22.8% vs 14.2%; adjusted HR, 1.45; 95% CI, 1.11-1.88).

CONCLUSION

Among participants who were older than 60 years, loneliness was a predictor of functional decline and death.

Systemic vascular function is associated with muscular power in older adults

Age-associated loss of muscular strength and muscular power is a critical determinant of loss of physical function and progression to disability in older adults. In this study, we examined the association of systemic vascular function and measures of muscle strength and power in older adults. Measures of vascular endothelial function included brachial artery flow-mediated dilation (FMD) and the pulse wave amplitude reactive hyperemia index (PWA-RHI). Augmentation index (AIx) was taken as a measure of systemic vascular function related to arterial stiffness and wave reflection. Measures of muscular strength included one repetition maximum (1RM) for a bilateral leg press. Peak muscular power was measured during 5 repetitions performed as fast as possible for bilateral leg press at 40% 1RM. Muscular power was associated with brachial FMD (r = 0.43, P < 0.05), PWA-RHI (r = 0.42, P < 0.05), and AIx (r = -0.54, P < 0.05). Muscular strength was not associated with any measure of vascular function. In conclusion, systemic vascular function is associated with lower-limb muscular power but not muscular strength in older adults. Whether loss of muscular power with aging contributes to systemic vascular deconditioning or vascular dysfunction contributes to decrements in muscular power remains to be determined.

Measurement equivalence in ADL and IADL difficulty across international surveys of aging: findings from the HRS, SHARE, and ELSA

OBJECTIVE

To examine the measurement equivalence of items on disability across three international surveys of aging.

METHOD

Data for persons aged 65 and older were drawn from the Health and Retirement Survey (HRS, n = 10,905), English Longitudinal Study of Aging (ELSA, n = 5,437), and Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE, n = 13,408). Differential item functioning (DIF) was assessed using item response theory (IRT) methods for activities of daily living (ADL) and instrumental activities of daily living (IADL) items.

RESULTS

HRS and SHARE exhibited measurement equivalence, but 6 of 11 items in ELSA demonstrated meaningful DIF. At the scale level, this item-level DIF affected scores reflecting greater disability. IRT methods also spread out score distributions and shifted scores higher (toward greater disability). Results for mean disability differences by demographic characteristics, using original and DIF-adjusted scores, were the same overall but differed for some subgroup comparisons involving ELSA.

DISCUSSION

Testing and adjusting for DIF is one means of minimizing measurement error in cross-national survey comparisons. IRT methods were used to evaluate potential measurement bias in disability comparisons across three international surveys of aging. The analysis also suggested DIF was mitigated for scales including both ADL and IADL and that summary indexes (counts of limitations) likely underestimate mean disability in these international populations.

Compression of morbidity 1980-2011: a focused review of paradigms and progress

The Compression of Morbidity hypothesis—positing that the age of onset of chronic illness may be postponed more than the age at death and squeezing most of the morbidity in life into a shorter period with less lifetime disability—was introduced by our group in 1980. This paper is focused upon the evolution of the concept, the controversies and responses, the supportive multidisciplinary science, and the evolving lines of evidence that establish proof of concept. We summarize data from 20-year prospective longitudinal studies of lifestyle progression of disability, national population studies of trends in disability, and randomized controlled trials of risk factor reduction with life-style-based “healthy aging” interventions. From the perspective of this influential and broadly cited paradigm, we review its current history, the development of a theoretical structure for healthy aging, and the challenges to develop coherent health policies directed at reduction in morbidity.

Disability occurrence and proximity to death

PURPOSE

This paper aims to assess whether disability occurrence is related more strongly to proximity to death than to age.

METHOD

Self reported disability and vital status were available from six annual waves and a subsequent 12-year mortality follow-up of the Dutch GLOBE longitudinal study. Logit and Poisson regression methods were used to study associations of disability occurrence with age and with proximity to death.

RESULTS

For disability in activities of daily living (ADL), regression models with proximity to death had better goodness of fit than models with age. With approaching death, the odds for ADL disability prevalence and incidence rates increased 20.0% and 18.9% per year, whereas severity increased 4.1% per year. For the ages younger than 60, 60-69 and older than 70 years, the odds for ADL disability prevalence increased 6.4%, 16.0% and 23.0% per year. Among subjects with asthma/chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, heart disease and diabetes increases were 25.1%, 19.5% and 22.7% per year. Functional impairments were more strongly related to age.

CONCLUSIONS

The strong association of (ADL) disability occurrence with proximity to death implies that a substantial part of the disability burden may shift to older ages with further increases in life expectancy.

Treatment of death in the analysis of longitudinal studies of gerontological outcomes

BACKGROUND

Longitudinal studies in gerontology are characterized by termination of measurement from death. Death is related to many important gerontological outcomes, such as functional disability, and may, over time, change the composition of an older study population. For these reasons, treating death as noninformative censoring of a longitudinal outcome may result in biased estimates of regression coefficients related to that outcome.

METHODS

In a longitudinal study of community-living older persons, we analytically and graphically illustrate the dependence between death and functional disability. Relative to survivors, decedents display a rapid decline of functional ability in the months preceding death. Death's strong relationship with functional disability demonstrates that death is not independent of this outcome and, hence, leads to informative censoring. We also demonstrate the "healthy survivor effect" that results from death's selection effect, with respect to functional disability, on the longitudinal makeup of an older study population.

RESULTS

We briefly survey commonly used approaches for longitudinal modeling of gerontological outcomes, with special emphasis on their treatment of death. Most common methods treat death as noninformative censoring. However, joint modeling methods are described that take into account any dependency between death and a longitudinal outcome.

CONCLUSIONS

In longitudinal studies of older persons, death is often related to gerontological outcomes and, therefore, cannot be safely assumed to represent noninformative censoring. Such analyzes must account for the dependence between outcomes and death as well as the changing nature of the cohort.

Transitions in health and social service system at the end of life

This study focuses on the amount and types of transitions in health and social service system during the last 2 years of life and the places of death and among Finnish people aged 70-79, 80-89 and 90 or older. The data set, derived from multiple national registers, consists of 75,578 people who died between 1998 and 2001. The services included university hospitals, general hospitals, health centres and residential care facilities. The most common place of death was the municipal health centre: half of the whole research population died in a health centre. The place of death varied by age and gender: men and people in younger age groups died more often in general or in university hospital or at home, while dying in health centres or in residential care homes was more common among women or the very old. Number of transitions varied from zero to over a hundred transitions during the last 2 years. Number of transitions increased as death approached. Men and younger age groups had more transitions than women and older age groups. Among men and younger age groups transitions between home and general or university hospital were common while transitions between home and health centre or residential care were more common to women and older people. The results indicate that municipal health centres have a major role as care providers as death approaches. Differences between gender and age in numbers and types of transitions were clear. Future research is needed to clarify the causes to these differences.

The last year of life in Europe: regional variations in functional status and sources of support

This article aims to provide an initial account of the life circumstances of older people in 11 continental European countries during the year prior to their deaths. It focuses on regional variations in functional limitations and sources of support. Using logistic regression we analyse data from 523 end-of-life interviews in 2006–07, collected for the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (Wave 2) about the respondents who had died since the baseline data collection in 2004–05. The prevalence of functional limitations was found to be fairly consistent across Northern, Central and Southern Europe. Significant regional differences existed, however, with regard to the deceased respondents' main sources of support and the locations of their deaths. Northern Europeans were the least likely to receive help from their family only and the most likely to be supported by non-kin. They also exhibited the highest risk of dying in a nursing home. In Mediterranean countries, a pattern of exclusive family support and dying at home prevailed. The findings support the notion of a ‘mixed responsibility’ of families and welfare states as providers of support for older people in the last year of life.

Trajectories of disability in the last year of life

BACKGROUND

Despite the importance of functional status to older persons and their families, little is known about the course of disability at the end of life.

METHODS

We evaluated data on 383 decedents from a longitudinal study involving 754 community-dwelling older persons. None of the subjects had disability in essential activities of daily living at the beginning of the study, and the level of disability was ascertained during monthly interviews for more than 10 years. Information on the conditions leading to death was obtained from death certificates and comprehensive assessments that were completed at 18-month intervals after the baseline assessment.

RESULTS

In the last year of life, five distinct trajectories were identified, from no disability to the most severe disability: 65 subjects had no disability (17.0%), 76 had catastrophic disability (19.8%), 67 had accelerated disability (17.5%), 91 had progressive disability (23.8%), and 84 had persistently severe disability (21.9%). The most common condition leading to death was frailty (in 107 subjects [27.9%]), followed by organ failure (in 82 subjects [21.4%]), cancer (in 74 subjects [19.3%]), other causes (in 57 subjects [14.9%]), advanced dementia (in 53 subjects [13.8%]), and sudden death (in 10 subjects [2.6%]). When the distribution of the disability trajectories was evaluated according to the conditions leading to death, a predominant trajectory was observed only for subjects who died from advanced dementia (67.9% of these subjects had a trajectory of persistently severe disability) and sudden death (50.0% of these subjects had no disability). For the four other conditions leading to death, no more than 34% of the subjects had any of the disability trajectories. The distribution of disability trajectories was particularly heterogeneous among the subjects with organ failure (from 12.2 to 32.9% of the subjects followed a specific trajectory) and frailty (from 14.0 to 27.1% of the subjects followed a specific trajectory).

CONCLUSIONS

In most of the decedents, the course of disability in the last year of life did not follow a predictable pattern based on the condition leading to death.