Aligning opportunity cost and net benefit criteria: the health shadow price

Given constrained healthcare budgets and many competing demands, public health decision-making requires comparing the expected cost and health outcomes of alternative strategies and associated adoption and financing actions. Opportunity cost (comparing outcomes from the best alternative use of budgets or actions in decision making) and more recently net benefit criteria (relative valuing of effects at a threshold value less costs) have been key concepts and metrics applied toward making such decisions. In an ideal world, opportunity cost and net benefit criteria should be mutually supportive and consistent. However, that requires a threshold value to align net benefit with opportunity cost assessment. This perspective piece shows that using the health shadow price as the ICER threshold aligns net benefit and opportunity cost criteria for joint adoption and financing actions that arise when reimbursing any new strategy or technology under a constrained budget. For an investment strategy with ICER at the health shadow price Bc = 1/(1/n + 1/d-1/m), net benefit of reimbursing (adopting and financing) that strategy given an incremental cost-effectiveness ration (ICER) of actual displacement, d, in financing, is shown to be equivalent to that of the best alternative actions, the most cost-effective expansion of existing programs (ICER = n) funded by the contraction of the least cost-effective programs (ICER = m). Net benefit is correspondingly positive or negative if it is below or above this threshold. Implications are discussed for creating pathways to optimal public health decision-making with appropriate incentives for efficient displacement as well as for adoption actions and related research.

Show me the money! Associations between tree canopy and hospital costs in cities for cardiovascular disease events in a longitudinal cohort study of 110,134 participants

Health benefits from urban greening are assumed to translate into reduced healthcare expenditure, yet few studies have tested this. A total of 110,134 participants in the Sax Institute's 45 and Up Study in the Australian cities of Sydney, Newcastle, or Wollongong were linked with hospital cost data for cardiovascular disease (CVD) events (e.g., acute myocardial infarctions) up to 30 June 2018. Associations between percentages of total green space, tree canopy, and open grass within 1.6 km of participants homes and annual per person measured CVD-related hospital costs were analysed using generalised linear model (GLM) with gamma density as a component of a two-part mixture model, adjusting for confounders. Overall, 26,243 participants experienced a CVD-related hospitalisation. Incidence was lower among participants with 10 % more tree canopy (OR 0.98, 95 %CI 0.96, 0.99), but not with higher total green space or open grass percentages. Total costs of hospitalisations per year were lower with 10 % more tree canopy (means ratio 0.96, 95 %CI 0.95, 0.98), but also higher with 10 % more open grass (means ratio 1.04, 95 %CI 1.02, 1.06). It was estimated that raising tree canopy cover to 30 % or more for individuals with currently less than 10 % could lead to a within-sample annual saving per person of AU$ 193 overall and AU$ 569 for those who experienced one or more CVD-related hospital admissions. This projects to an estimated annual health sector cost reduction of AU$ 19.3 million per 100,000 individuals for whom local tree canopy cover is increased from less than 10 % to 30 % or higher. In conclusion, this longitudinal study is among the first to analyse measured healthcare cost data in relation to urban green space in general, and with differentiation between major types of greenery relevant to urban planning policies in cities around the world. In sum, this study advances an increasingly important and international focus of research by reporting on the lower burden of CVD and fewer associated hospitalisations stemming from upstream investments that protect and restore urban tree canopy, which not only translates into substantial reduced costs for the health sector, but also helps to create regenerative cities and flourishing communities.

The Marri Gudjaga project: a study protocol for a randomised control trial using Aboriginal peer support workers to promote breastfeeding of Aboriginal babies

BACKGROUND

Breastfeeding protects against a range of conditions in the infant, including sudden infant death syndrome (SIDS), diarrhoea, respiratory infections and middle ear infections [1, 2]. The World Health Organization (WHO) recommends exclusive breastfeeding until six months of age, with continued breastfeeding recommended for at least two years and other complementary nutritious foods [3]. The 2017-18 National Health Survey (NHS) and 2018-19 National Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Health Survey (NATSIHS) reported that the proportion of breastfeeding in Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander infants (0-2 years) were less than half that of non-Indigenous infants (21.2% vs. 45%, respectively)[4]. There is a lack of research on interventions supporting Aboriginal women to breastfeed, identifying an evaluation gap related to peer support interventions to encourage exclusive breastfeeding in Aboriginal women.

METHODS

We will evaluate the effect of scheduled breastfeeding peer support for and by Aboriginal women, on breastfeeding initiation and the prevalence of exclusive breastfeeding. This MRFF (Medical Research Future Fund) funded project is designed as a single-blinded cluster randomised controlled trial recruiting six sites across New South Wales, Australia, with three sites being randomised to employ a peer support worker or undertaking standard care. Forty pregnant women will be recruited each year from each of the six sites and will be surveyed during pregnancy, at six weeks, four and six months postnatally with a single text message at 12 months to ascertain breastfeeding rates. In-depth interviews via an Indigenous style of conversation and storytelling called 'Yarning' will be completed at pre- and post-intervention with five randomly recruited community members and five health professionals at each site" [5]. Yarns will be audio recorded, transcribed, coded and thematic analysis undertaken. Health economic analysis will be completed to assess the health system incremental cost and effects of the breastfeeding intervention relative to usual care.

DISCUSSION

Evidence will be given on the effectiveness of Aboriginal peer support workers to promote the initiation and continuation of breastfeeding of Aboriginal babies. The findings of this study will provide evidence of effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of including peer support workers in postnatal care to promote breastfeeding practices.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ACTRN12622001208796 The impact of breastfeeding peer support on nutrition of Aboriginal infants.

Cluster-randomised trial of the Effectiveness of Quality Incentive Payments in General Practice (EQuIP-GP): Prescribing of medicines outcomes

BACKGROUND

The Effectiveness of Quality Incentive Payments in General Practice (EQuIP-GP) study investigated whether targeted financial incentives promoting access to a preferred general practitioner, post-hospitalisation follow-up and longer consultations, increase patient-perceived relational continuity in primary care. Secondary outcomes included the use of medicines.

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate whether introducing a general practice-level service model incorporating enrolment and continuous and graded quality improvement incentives influenced the total prescriptions written and potentially inappropriate prescribing of medicines.

METHODS

A 12-month cluster-randomised controlled trial, whereby participating patients within intervention practices were offered enrolment with a preferred general practitioner, a minimum of three longer appointments, and review within seven days of hospital admission or emergency department attendance. Control practice patients received usual care. Differences between intervention and control groups pre-post trial for total prescriptions were analysed, as an indicator of polypharmacy, along with prescriptions for four groups of drugs known to have common quality of medicines issues: antibiotics, benzodiazepines, opioids and proton pump inhibitors (PPIs).

RESULTS

A total of 774 patients, aged 18-65 years with a chronic illness or aged over 65 years, from 34 general practices in metropolitan, regional and rural Australia participated. The mean number of medicine prescriptions per month at baseline was 4.19 (SD 3.27) and 4.34 (SD 3.75) in the control and intervention arms, respectively, with no significant between-group differences in changes pre-post trial and also no significant between-group or within-group differences of prescription rates for antibiotics, benzodiazepines, opioids or PPIs.

CONCLUSIONS

Total prescribing volume and the use of key medicines were not influenced by quality-linked financial incentives for offering longer consultations and early post-hospital review for enrolled patients.

Globally optimal trial design and risk sharing arrangements are key to avoiding opportunity costs of delay and enabling equitable, feasible and effective global vaccine research and implementation in current or future pandemics

Global vaccination in the face of pandemics such as COVID-19 and new variants is a race against time. Avoiding the opportunity costs of delay and the associated health, social, and downstream economic impacts is a challenge and an imperative. Failures to address the global challenges posed by COVID-19 have become increasingly evident as waves of vaccine-evading mutations have emerged, facilitated by unequal vaccination coverage and diminishing immunity against new variants worldwide. To address these challenges, societal decision-makers (governments) and industry manufacturer interests must be better aligned for rapid, globally optimal trial design, ideally with research coverage, implementation, and accessibility of effective vaccines across joint research, implementation, and distribution cycles to address pandemic evolution in real time. Value of information (VoI) methods for optimal global trial design and risk-sharing arrangements align the research, distribution, and implementation interests and efforts globally to meet head-on the imperative of avoiding opportunity costs of delay and enabling consistent global solutions with maximizing local and global net benefits. They uniquely enable feasible early adoption of the most promising strategies in real time while the best globally translatable evidence is collected and interests are aligned for global distribution and implementation. Furthermore, these methods are generally shown to be imperative for feasible, fast, and optimal solutions across joint research, reimbursement, and regulatory processes for current and future pandemics and other global existential threats. Establishing pathways for globally optimal trial designs, risk-sharing agreements, and efficient translation to practice is urgent on many fronts.

Robust cross-country comparison of children meeting 24-HR movement guidelines: an odds solution for binary effect efficiency measures

Aim

International comparisons of public health measures relative to observed best practice are increasingly important for evaluating community health promotion strategies and policies such as meeting or not meeting public health guidelines. This study aimed to identify methods enabling robust evaluation with such binary effect measures at a population level.

Subject and methods

Conventional efficiency comparisons of binary effect proportions are problematic due to a lack of consistency with alternate framing of resulting relative risks. In this paper, we illustrate such inconsistent efficiency measures comparing the proportion of school age children (9–11 years) meeting or not meeting integrated movement guidelines (IMGs) across the 12 countries from the International Study of Childhood Obesity, Lifestyle and the Environment (ISCOLE) study. IMGs jointly consider physical activity, sleep and sedentary behaviours. An odds method is developed to enable consistent efficiency comparison with alternative framing of binary effects.

Results

A novel odds solution to relative risk problems arising with conventional efficiency comparison of binary effects with alternative framing is shown to provide consistent efficiency measures relative to best practice. Furthermore, this technical advancement is shown to extend to consistent indirect comparison and evidence translation.

Conclusion

Robust methods for international cross-country comparison of binary effect measures such as meeting or not meeting guidelines are identified with a novel odds ratio method. This novel solution is particularly important for health promotion evaluation of IMGs given the need for consistent comparison in evaluating practice evidence of what works now and consistent evidence translation of treatment effects as and when they emerge.

Effectiveness of Quality Incentive Payments in General Practice (EQuIP-GP) cluster randomized trial: impact on patient-reported experience

BACKGROUND

Relational continuity, 'a therapeutic relationship between a patient and provider/s that spans health care events', has been associated with improved patient outcomes.

OBJECTIVES

To evaluate whether an intervention incorporating patient enrolment and a funding model for higher-risk patients influenced patient-reported experience measures, particularly relational continuity.

METHODS

Cluster-randomized controlled trial over 12 months (1 August 2018-31 July 2019). Participating patients within intervention practices were offered enrolment with a preferred general practitioner, a minimum of 3 longer appointments, and review within 7 days of hospital admission or emergency department attendance. Intervention practices received incentives for longer consultations (dependent on reducing unnecessary prescriptions and tests), early post-hospital follow-up, and hospitalization reductions. The primary outcome was patient-reported relational continuity, measured by the Primary Care Assessment Tool Short Form.

RESULTS

A total of 774 patients, aged 18-65 years with a chronic illness or aged over 65 years, from 34 general practices in metropolitan, regional, and rural Australia across 3 states participated. Response rates for questionnaires were >90%. From a maximum of 4.0, mean baseline scores for relational continuity were 3.38 (SE 0.05) and 3.42 (SE 0.05) in control and intervention arms, respectively, with no significant between-group differences in changes pre-post trial. There were no significant changes in other patient-focussed measures.

CONCLUSION

Patient-reported relational continuity was high at baseline and not influenced by the intervention, signalling the need for caution with policies incorporating patient enrolment and financial incentives. Further research is required targeting at-risk patient groups with low baseline engagement with primary care.

Telephone and Web-Based Delivery of Healthy Eating and Active Living Interventions for Parents of Children Aged 2 to 6 Years: Mixed Methods Process Evaluation of the Time for Healthy Habits Translation Trial

Background

Few translational trials have provided detailed reports of process evaluation results.

Objective

This study reported on findings from a mixed methods process evaluation of a large translational trial comparing 2 remotely delivered healthy eating and active living interventions with an active control, targeting parents of young children.

Methods

Mixed methods process evaluation data were collected as part of a 3-arm, partially randomized preference trial targeting parents of children aged 2 to 6 years from New South Wales, Australia. Recruitment strategies were assessed through the participant baseline questionnaire and a questionnaire completed by the health promotion staff involved in recruitment. Data on participants’ intervention preferences were collected at baseline and after the intervention. Intervention acceptability and demographic data were collected via a postintervention questionnaire (approximately 3 months after baseline), which was supplemented by qualitative participant interviews. Implementation data on intervention fidelity and withdrawal were also recorded. Differences in intervention acceptability, fidelity, and withdrawal rates between telephone and web-based interventions and between randomized and nonrandomized participants were analyzed. The significance level was set at P<.05 for all tests. The interview content was analyzed, key themes were drawn from participant responses, and findings were described narratively.

Results

Data were collected from 458 participants in the baseline survey and 144 (31.4%) participants in the 3-month postintervention survey. A total of 30 participants completed the qualitative interviews. A total of 6 health promotion staff members participated in the survey on recruitment strategies. Most participants were recruited from Early Childhood Education and Care services. There was a broad reach of the study; however, better take-up rates were observed in regional and rural areas compared with metropolitan areas. Parents with a university education were overrepresented. Most participants preferred the web-based medium of delivery at baseline. There was high acceptability of the web-based and telephone interventions. Participants found the healthy eating content to be the most useful component of the modules (web-based) and calls (telephone). They regarded text (web-based) or verbal (telephone) information as the most useful component. A high proportion of participants completed the telephone intervention compared with the web-based intervention; however, more participants actively withdrew from the telephone intervention.

Conclusions

This is one of the first studies to comprehensively report on process evaluation data from a translation trial, which demonstrated high acceptability of all interventions but a strong participant preference for the web-based intervention. This detailed process evaluation is critical to inform further implementation and be considered alongside the effectiveness outcomes.

A collaborative approach to adopting/adapting guidelines. The Australian 24-hour movement guidelines for children (5-12 years) and young people (13-17 years): An integration of physical activity, sedentary behaviour, and sleep

Abstract

Background

In 2018, the Australian Government updated the Australian Physical Activity and Sedentary Behaviour Guidelines for Children and Young People. A requirement of this update was the incorporation of a 24-hour approach to movement, recognising the importance of adequate sleep. The purpose of this paper was to describe how the updated Australian 24-Hour Movement Guidelines for Children and Young People (5 to 17 years): an integration of physical activity, sedentary behaviour and sleep were developed and the outcomes from this process.

Methods

The GRADE-ADOLOPMENT approach was used to develop the guidelines. A Leadership Group was formed, who identified existing credible guidelines. The Canadian 24-Hour Movement Guidelines for Children and Youth best met the criteria established by the Leadership Group. These guidelines were evaluated based on the evidence in the GRADE tables, summaries of findings tables and recommendations from the Canadian Guidelines. We conducted updates to each of the Canadian systematic reviews. A Guideline Development Group reviewed, separately and in combination, the evidence for each behaviour. A choice was then made to adopt or adapt the Canadian recommendations for each behaviour or create de novo recommendations. We then conducted an online survey (n=237) along with three focus groups (n=11 in total) and 13 key informant interviews. Stakeholders used these to provide feedback on the draft guidelines.

Results

Based on the evidence from the Canadian systematic reviews and the updated systematic reviews in Australia, the Guideline Development Group agreed to adopt the Canadian recommendations and, apart from some minor changes to the wording of good practice statements, maintain the wording of the guidelines, preamble, and title of the Canadian Guidelines. The Australian Guidelines provide evidence-informed recommendations for a healthy day (24-hours), integrating physical activity, sedentary behaviour (including limits to screen time), and sleep for children (5-12 years) and young people (13-17 years).

Conclusions

To our knowledge, this is only the second time the GRADE-ADOLOPMENT approach has been used to develop movement behaviour guidelines. The judgments of the Australian Guideline Development Group did not differ sufficiently to change the directions and strength of the recommendations and as such, the Canadian Guidelines were adopted with only very minor alterations. This allowed the Australian Guidelines to be developed in a shorter time frame and at a lower cost. We recommend the GRADE-ADOLOPMENT approach, especially if a credible set of guidelines that was developed using the GRADE approach is available with all supporting materials. Other countries may consider this approach when developing and/or revising national movement guidelines.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12966-021-01236-2.

Translation of Two Healthy Eating and Active Living Support Programs for Parents of 2-6-Year-Old Children: Outcomes of the 'Time for Healthy Habits' Parallel Partially Randomised Preference Trial

This translation study assessed the effectiveness of two remotely delivered healthy eating and active living interventions for parents of 2- to 6-year-old children in improving child fruit and vegetable intake, non-core food intake, body mass index (BMI), physical activity, screen time, and sleep. Parents (n = 458) were recruited to a partially randomised preference trial comprising three intervention groups. Healthy Habits Plus comprised six telephone calls, Time2bHealthy comprised six online modules, and the active control comprised ten information sheets and a summary booklet. Data were collected from parents via a telephone questionnaire at baseline and nine months post-baseline. Data were analysed for randomised participants alone (n = 240), preference participants alone (n = 218), and all participants combined (n = 458). There was no significant improvement in fruit and vegetable intake (primary outcome) when comparing the telephone and online interventions to the control. In both the randomised only and all participants combined analyses, there was a significant improvement in non-core food intake for the telephone intervention compared to the control (p < 0.001). Differences between interventions for other outcomes were small. In conclusion, the telephone and online interventions did not improve child fruit and vegetable intake relative to written materials, but the telephone intervention did improve non-core food intake.

Multiple effects health economic evaluation of the Ahead of The Game Study for mental health promotion in sporting club communities

BACKGROUND

This study evaluates the Ahead Of The Game (AOTG) mental health promotion strategy for adolescent males relative to usual practice in team based sporting club community settings, allowing for joint incremental effects across 13 dimensions and 5 domains alongside intervention implementation costs.

METHODS

Analysis is undertaken between matched communities with difference in differences analysis of joint multiple pre-post effect changes alongside implementation costs employing radar plots in cost-disutility space. A robust bootstrapping method allowed including all observed change in effect data from 343 AOTG and 273 control arm participants across 13 effect dimensions.

RESULTS

Triangulation across joint evidence shows mean incremental effects favoured AOTG in all dimensions (10/13 significantly at 5% level) and in simple aggregation to each of five pre-specified 5 domains (each significant at < 1% level) and global measures (significant at 0.001% level), while mean AOTG implementation costs were conservatively estimated as $37.47 per participant.

CONCLUSION

The AOTG strategy was found to represent an effective mental health promotion strategy across all domains and globally with associated significant potential for downstream health system cost savings to offset against modest implementation costs. Evaluation methods extend conventional cost-effectiveness analysis to enable robust joint presentation and triangulation under uncertainty of multiple effect dimensions alongside costs.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ANZCTR, ACTRN12617000709347 . Registered 17th May 2017.

More green, less lonely? A longitudinal cohort study

Background

Urban greening may reduce loneliness by offering opportunities for solace, social reconnection and supporting processes such as stress relief. We (i) assessed associations between residential green space and cumulative incidence of, and relief from, loneliness over 4 years; and (ii) explored contingencies by age, sex, disability and cohabitation status.

Methods

Multilevel logistic regressions of change in loneliness status in 8049 city-dwellers between 2013 (baseline) and 2017 (follow-up) in the Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia study. Associations with objectively measured discrete green-space buffers (e.g. parks) (<400, <800 and <1600 m) were adjusted for age, sex, disability, cohabitation status, children and socio-economic variables. Results were translated into absolute risk reductions in loneliness per 10% increase in urban greening.

Results

The absolute risk of loneliness rose from 15.9% to 16.9% over the 4 years; however, a 10% increase in urban greening within 1.6 km was associated with lower cumulative incident loneliness [odds ratio (OR) = 0.927, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.862 to 0.996; absolute risk reduction = 0.66%]. Stronger association was observed for people living alone (OR = 0.828, 95% CI = 0.725 to 0.944). In comparison to people with <10% green space, the ORs for cumulative incident loneliness were 0.833 (95% CI = 0.695 to 0.997), 0.790 (95% CI = 0.624 to 1.000) and 0.736 (95% CI = 0.549 to 0.986) for 10–20%, 20–30% and >30% green space, respectively. Compared with the <10% green-space reference group with 13.78% incident loneliness over 4 years and conservatively assuming no impact on incident loneliness, associations translated into absolute risk reductions of 1.70%, 2.26% and 2.72% within populations with 10–20%, 20–30% and >30% green space, respectively. These associations were stronger again for people living alone, with 10–20% (OR = 0.608, 95% CI = 0.448 to 0.826), 20–30% (OR = 0.649, 95% CI = 0.436 to 0.966) and >30% (OR = 0.480, 95% CI = 0.278 to 0.829) green space within 1600 m. No age, sex or disability-related contingencies, associations with green space within 400 or 800 m or relief from loneliness reported at baseline were observed.

Conclusions

A lower cumulative incidence of loneliness was observed among people with more green space within 1600 m of home, especially for people living alone. Potential biopsychosocial mechanisms warrant investigation.

The effect of omega-3 long chain polyunsaturated fatty acids on aggressive behaviour in adult male prisoners: a structured study protocol for a multi-centre, double-blind, randomised placebo-controlled trial and translation into policy and practice

BACKGROUND

Interventions to better manage aggressive behaviour and reduce recidivism are a primary concern for corrective services. Nutritional interventions to correct prisoner behaviour have been largely overlooked in the literature. Emerging evidence suggests that dietary intake influences aggressive behaviours and that nutritional supplementation with omega-3 long chain polyunsaturated fatty acids (n-3 LCPUFA) could attenuate both the severity and frequency of aggressive behaviour.

METHODS

Adult male prisoners who have a history of aggressive behaviour (n = 600) will be recruited from at least 6 Correctional Centres and randomised to receive either n-3 LCPUFA or placebo supplementation for a 16-week duration. Treatment will be with either 1 g/day of n-3 LCPUFA (694 mg DHA and 397 mg EPA) or placebo capsules, which are a corn/soy oil blend and are identical in size and colour. The primary outcome measure is the Inmate Behavioural Observation Scale (IBOS): an objective measure of aggressive behaviour. Secondary outcome measures include questionnaires (including aggression, attention deficit disorder, impulsivity, depression/anxiety/stress scales), engagement in programmes, recidivism and quality of life. Baseline and post-intervention assessments include the IBOS, questionnaires and blood to measure the levels of n-3 LCPUFA.

DISCUSSION

To conclusively test the potential that increasing n-3 LCPUFA intakes can improve rates of prisoner aggression and associated mental health and violence-related social system management costs, we propose an adequately powered multi-centre, double-blind, randomised controlled trial, examining the effects of n-3 LCPUFA supplementation on aggressive behaviour in adult male prisoners. If successful, this study will inform prisoner policy with respect to nutrition and by inference contribute to a broader community approach to preventative mental health practices.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

Australian New Zealand Clinical Trial Registry (ANZCTR) ACTRN12618001665224 . Registered on 10 October 2018.

Health-related quality of life in patients with inoperable malignant bowel obstruction: secondary outcome from a double-blind, parallel, placebo-controlled randomised trial of octreotide

Background

This analysis aims to evaluate health-related quality of life (HrQoL) (primary outcome for this analysis), nausea and vomiting, and pain in patients with inoperable malignant bowel obstruction (IMBO) due to cancer or its treatments randomised to standardised therapies plus octreotide or placebo over a maximum of 72 h in a double-blind clinical trial.

Methods

Adults with IMBO and vomiting recruited through 12 services spanning inpatient, consultative and community settings in Australia were randomised to subcutaneous octreotide infusion or saline. HrQoL was measured at baseline and treatment cessation (EORTC QLQ-C15-PAL). Mean within-group paired differences between baseline and post-treatment scores were analysed using Wilcoxon Signed Rank test and between group differences estimated using linear mixed models, adjusted for baseline score, sex, age, time, and study arm.

Results

One hundred six of the 112 randomised participants were included in the analysis (n = 52 octreotide, n = 54 placebo); 6 participants were excluded due to major protocol violations. Mean baseline HrQoL scores were low (octreotide 22.1, 95% CI 14.3, 29.9; placebo 31.5, 95% CI 22.3, 40.7). There was no statistically significant within-group improvement in the mean HrQoL scores in the octreotide (p = 0.21) or placebo groups (p = 0.78), although both groups reported reductions in mean nausea and vomiting (octreotide p < 0.01; placebo p = 0.02) and pain scores (octreotide p < 0.01; placebo p = 0.03). Although no statistically significant difference in changes in HrQoL scores between octreotide and placebo were seen, an adequately powered study is required to fully assess any differences in HrQoL scores.

Conclusion

The HrQoL of patients with IMBO and vomiting is poor. Further research to formally evaluate the effects of standard therapies for IMBO is therefore warranted.

Trial registration

Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry ACTRN12608000211369 (date registered 18/04/2008)

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12885-020-07549-y.

Translation of two healthy eating and active living support programs for parents of 2-6 year old children: a parallel partially randomised preference trial protocol (the 'time for healthy habits' trial)

Background

Parents are key decision makers and role models in establishing and maintaining healthy behaviours in their children. Interventions involving parents have been shown to be more effective than those that do not, but there are barriers to participation. Efficacy trials have previously been conducted on two such parent-focussed healthy eating and active living interventions with the potential to overcome these barriers - Healthy Habits (telephone-based) and Time2bHealthy (online) with promising results. Further research is now required to determine the effectiveness of these interventions in a real-world context. The Time for Healthy Habits study is a 3-arm partially randomised preference trial which aims to evaluate the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of two theory-based programs to promote healthy eating and appropriate levels of movement behaviours (physical activity, sedentary behaviour and sleep) for parents of 2- to 6-year-old children (Healthy Habits Plus telephone-based program and Time2bHealthy online program), when compared to a comparison group receiving written materials.

Methods

Participants will be recruited across five Local Health Districts in New South Wales, Australia. The partially randomised preference design initially allows for participants to decide if they wish to be randomised or opt to select their preferred intervention and has been recommended for use to test effectiveness in a real-world setting. Both interventions incorporate multiple behaviour change techniques and support parents to improve their children’s healthy eating, and movement behaviours (physical activity, sedentary behaviour and sleep) and run for 12 weeks, followed by a 3-month and 9-month post-baseline follow-up. Participants will also be asked to complete a process evaluation questionnaire at the completion of the intervention (3-months post-baseline). Outcomes include fruit and vegetable intake (primary outcome), non-core food intake, weight status, physical activity, sedentary behaviour, and sleep habits.

Discussion

To our knowledge, this is the first translational research trial evaluating the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of a healthy eating and active living intervention in the 2- to 6-years age group. The results will build the evidence base in regard to translation of effective childhood obesity prevention interventions and inform the implementation and delivery of community based childhood obesity prevention programs.

Trial registration

UTN: U1111–1228-9748, ACTRN: 12619000396123p.

'Jump start' childcare-based intervention to promote physical activity in pre-schoolers: six-month findings from a cluster randomised trial

BACKGROUND

Participation in adequate levels of physical activity during the early years is important for health and development. We report the 6-month effects of an 18-month multicomponent intervention on physical activity in early childhood education and care (ECEC) settings in low-income communities.

METHODS

A cluster randomised controlled trial was conducted in 43 ECEC settings in disadvantaged areas of New South Wales, Australia. Three-year-old children were recruited and assessed in the first half of 2015 with follow-up 6 months later. The intervention was guided by Social Cognitive Theory and included five components. The primary outcome was minutes per hour in total physical activity during ECEC hours measured using Actigraph accelerometers. Intention-to-treat analysis of the primary outcome was conducted using a generalized linear mixed model.

RESULTS

A total of 658 children were assessed at baseline. Of these, 558 (85%) had valid accelerometer data (mean age 3.38y, 52% boys) and 508 (77%) had valid accelerometry data at 6-month follow-up. Implementation of the intervention components ranged from 38 to 72%. There were no significant intervention effects on mins/hr. spent in physical activity (adjusted difference = - 0.17 mins/hr., 95% CI (- 1.30 to 0.97), p = 0.78). A priori sub-group analyses showed a greater effect among overweight/obese children in the control group compared with the intervention group for mins/hr. of physical activity (2.35mins/hr., [0.28 to 4.43], p = 0.036).

CONCLUSIONS

After six-months the Jump Start intervention had no effect on physical activity levels during ECEC. This was largely due to low levels of implementation. Increasing fidelity may result in higher levels of physical activity when outcomes are assessed at 18-months.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry  ACTRN12614000597695.

Pragmatic randomised controlled trial of a personalised intervention for carers of people requiring home oxygen therapy

We used a pragmatic randomised controlled trial to evaluate a behavioural change strategy targeting carers of chronically hypoxaemic patients using long-term home oxygen therapy. Intervention group carers participated in personalised educational sessions focusing on motivating carers to take actions to assist patients. All patients received usual care. Effectiveness was measured through a composite event of patient survival to hospitalisation, residential care admission or death to 12 months. Secondary outcomes at baseline, 3, 6 and 12 months included carer and patient emotional and physical well-being. No difference between intervention (n = 100) and control (n = 97) patients was found for the composite outcome (hazard ratio (HR) 1.22, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.89, 1.68; p = 0.22). Improved fatigue, mastery, vitality and general health occurred in intervention group patients (all p values < 0.05). No benefits were seen in carer outcomes. Mortality was significantly higher in intervention patients (HR = 2.01, 95% CI = 1.00, 4.14; p = 0.05; adjusted for Australia-modified Karnofsky Performance Status), with a significant diagnosis-intervention interaction (p = 0.028) showing higher mortality in patients with COPD (HR 4.26; 95% CI = 1.60, 11.35) but not those with interstitial lung disease (HR 0.83; 95% CI = 0.28, 2.46). No difference was detected in the primary outcome, but patient mortality was higher when carers had received the intervention, especially in the most disabled patients. Trials examining behavioural change interventions in severe disease should stratify for functionality, and both risks and benefits should be independently monitored. Trial registration: Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry (ACTRN12607000177459).

Correction to: Effectiveness of quality incentive payments in general practice (EQuIP-GP): a study protocol for a cluster-randomised trial of an outcomes-based funding model in Australian general practice to improve patient care

In the original publication of this article [1], the first name of the 3rd author is wrong.

Effectiveness of quality incentive payments in general practice (EQuIP-GP): a study protocol for a cluster-randomised trial of an outcomes-based funding model in Australian general practice to improve patient care

BACKGROUND

There is international interest in whether improved primary care, in particular for patients with chronic or complex conditions, can lead to decreased use of health resources and whether financial incentives help achieve this goal. This trial (EQuIP-GP) will investigate whether a funding model based upon targeted, continuous quality incentive payments for Australian general practices increases relational continuity of care, and lessens health-service utilisation, for high-risk patients and children.

METHODS

We will use a mixed methods approach incorporating a two-arm pragmatic cluster randomised control trial with nested qualitative case studies. We aim to recruit 36 general practices from Practice-Based Research Networks (PBRN) covering urban and regional areas of Australia, randomised into intervention and control groups. Control practices will provide usual care while intervention practices will be supported to implement a new service model incorporating incentives for relational continuity and timely access to appointments. Patients will comprise three groups: older (over 65 years); 18-65 years with chronic and/or complex conditions; and those aged less than 16 years with increased risk of hospitalisation. The funding model includes financial incentives to general practitioners (GPs) for providing longer consultations, same day access and timely follow-up after hospitalisation to enrolled patients. The payments are proportional to expected health system savings associated with improved quality of GP care. An outreach facilitator will work with practices to help incorporate the incentive model into usual work. The main outcome measure is relational continuity of care (Primary Care Assessment Tool short-form survey), with secondary outcomes including health-related quality of life and health service use (hospitalisations, emergency presentations, GP and specialist services in the community, medicine prescriptions and targeted pathology and imaging ordering). Outcomes will be initially evaluated over a period of 12 months, with ongoing data collection for 5 years.

DISCUSSION

The trial will provide robust evidence on a novel approach to providing continuous incentives for improving quality of general practice care, which can be compared to block payment incentives awarded at target quality levels of pay-for-performance, both within Australia and also internationally.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry ACTRN12618000105246. Registered on 23 January 2018.

Economic evaluation of the randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled study of subcutaneous ketamine in the management of chronic cancer pain

Background:

Treating chronic, uncontrolled, cancer pain with subcutaneous ketamine in patients unresponsive to opioids and co-analgesics remains controversial, especially in light of recent evidence demonstrating ketamine does not have net clinical benefit in this setting.

Aim:

To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of subcutaneous ketamine versus placebo in this patient population.

Design and setting:

A within-trial cost-effectiveness analysis of the Australian Palliative Care Clinical Studies Collaborative’s randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial of ketamine was conducted from a healthcare provider perspective. Mean costs and outcomes were estimated from participant-level data over 5 days including positive response, health-related quality of life (HrQOL) measured with the Functional Assessment of Chronic Illness Therapy–Palliative Care (FACIT-Pal), ketamine costs, medication usage and in-patient stays.

Results:

There was no statistically significant difference in responder rates, but higher toxicity and worse HrQOL for ketamine participants (mean change −3.10 (standard error (SE) 1.76), ketamine n = 93; 4.53 (SE 1.38), placebo n = 92). Estimated total mean costs were AU$706 higher per ketamine participant (AU$6608) compared with placebo (AU$5902), attributable to the cost of higher in-patient costs as well as costs of ketamine administration. The results were robust to sensitivity analyses accounting for different medication use costing methods and removal of cost outliers.

Conclusion:

The findings suggest subcutaneous ketamine in conjunction with opioids and standard adjuvant therapy is neither an effective nor cost-effective treatment for refractory pain in advanced cancer patients.

Ahead of the game protocol: a multi-component, community sport-based program targeting prevention, promotion and early intervention for mental health among adolescent males

BACKGROUND

There is a recognised need for targeted community-wide mental health strategies and interventions aimed specifically at prevention and early intervention in promoting mental health. Young males are a high need group who hold particularly negative attitudes towards mental health services, and these views are detrimental for early intervention and help-seeking. Organised sports provide a promising context to deliver community-wide mental health strategies and interventions to adolescent males. The aim of the Ahead of the Game program is to test the effectiveness of a multi-component, community-sport based program targeting prevention, promotion and early intervention for mental health among adolescent males.

METHODS

The Ahead of the Game program will be implemented within a sample drawn from community sporting clubs and evaluated using a sample drawn from a matched control community. Four programs are proposed, including two targeting adolescents, one for parents, and one for sports coaches. One adolescent program aims to increase mental health literacy, intentions to seek and/or provide help for mental health, and to decrease stigmatising attitudes. The second adolescent program aims to increase resilience. The goal of the parent program is to increase parental mental health literacy and confidence to provide help. The coach program is intended to increase coaches' supportive behaviours (e.g., autonomy supportive behaviours), and in turn facilitate high-quality motivation and wellbeing among adolescents. Programs will be complemented by a messaging campaign aimed at adolescents to enhance mental health literacy. The effects of the program on adolescent males' psychological distress and wellbeing will also be explored.

DISCUSSION

Organised sports represent a potentially engaging avenue to promote mental health and prevent the onset of mental health problems among adolescent males. The community-based design, with samples drawn from an intervention and a matched control community, enables evaluation of adolescent males' incremental mental health literacy, help-seeking intentions, stigmatising attitudes, motivation, and resilience impacts from the multi-level, multi-component Ahead of the Game program. Notable risks to the study include self-selection bias, the non-randomised design, and the translational nature of the program. However, strengths include extensive community input, as well as the multi-level and multi-component design.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry ACTRN12617000709347 . Date registered 17 May 2017. Retrospectively registered.

A collaborative approach to adopting/adapting guidelines - The Australian 24-Hour Movement Guidelines for the early years (Birth to 5 years): an integration of physical activity, sedentary behavior, and sleep

Background

In 2017, the Australian Government funded the update of the National Physical Activity Recommendations for Children 0–5 years, with the intention that they be an integration of movement behaviours across the 24-h period. The benefit for Australia was that it could leverage research in Canada in the development of their 24-h guidelines for the early years. Concurrently, the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation (GRADE) working group published a model to produce guidelines based on adoption, adaption and/or de novo development using the GRADE evidence-to-decision framework. Referred to as the GRADE-ADOLOPMENT approach, it allows guideline developers to follow a structured and transparent process in a more efficient manner, potentially avoiding the need to unnecessarily repeat costly tasks such as conducting systematic reviews. The purpose of this paper is to outline the process and outcomes for adapting the Canadian 24-Hour Movement Guidelines for the Early Years to develop the Australian 24-Hour Movement Guidelines for the Early Years guided by the GRADE-ADOLOPMENT framework.

Methods

The development process was guided by the GRADE-ADOLOPMENT approach. A Leadership Group and Consensus Panel were formed and existing credible guidelines identified. The draft Canadian 24-h integrated movement guidelines for the early years best met the criteria established by the Panel. These were evaluated based on the evidence in the GRADE tables, summaries of findings tables and draft recommendations from the Canadian Draft Guidelines. Updates to each of the Canadian systematic reviews were conducted and the Consensus Panel reviewed the evidence for each behaviour separately and made a decision to adopt or adapt the Canadian recommendations for each behaviour or create de novo recommendations. An online survey was then conducted (n = 302) along with five focus groups (n = 30) and five key informant interviews (n = 5) to obtain feedback from stakeholders on the draft guidelines.

Results

Based on the evidence from the Canadian systematic reviews and the updated systematic reviews in Australia, the Consensus Panel agreed to adopt the Canadian recommendations and, apart from some minor changes to the wording of good practice statements, keep the wording of the guidelines, preamble and title of the Canadian Guidelines. The Australian Guidelines provide evidence-informed recommendations for a healthy day (24-h), integrating physical activity, sedentary behaviour (including limits to screen time), and sleep for infants (<1 year), toddlers (1–2 years) and preschoolers (3–5 years).

Conclusions

To our knowledge, this is only the second time the GRADE-ADOLOPMENT approach has been used. Following this approach, the judgments of the Australian Consensus Panel did not differ sufficiently to change the directions and strength of the recommendations and as such, the Canadian recommendations were adopted with very minor alterations. This allowed the Guidelines to be developed much faster and at lower cost. As such, we would recommend the GRADE-ADOLOPMENT approach, especially if a credible set of guidelines, with all supporting materials and developed using a transparent process, is available. Other countries may consider using this approach when developing and/or revising national movement guidelines.

Efficacy of Oral Risperidone, Haloperidol, or Placebo for Symptoms of Delirium Among Patients in Palliative Care: A Randomized Clinical Trial

IMPORTANCE

Antipsychotics are widely used for distressing symptoms of delirium, but efficacy has not been established in placebo-controlled trials in palliative care.

OBJECTIVE

To determine efficacy of risperidone or haloperidol relative to placebo in relieving target symptoms of delirium associated with distress among patients receiving palliative care.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

A double-blind, parallel-arm, dose-titrated randomized clinical trial was conducted at 11 Australian inpatient hospice or hospital palliative care services between August 13, 2008, and April 2, 2014, among participants with life-limiting illness, delirium, and a delirium symptoms score (sum of Nursing Delirium Screening Scale behavioral, communication, and perceptual items) of 1 or more.

INTERVENTIONS

Age-adjusted titrated doses of oral risperidone, haloperidol, or placebo solution were administered every 12 hours for 72 hours, based on symptoms of delirium. Patients also received supportive care, individualized treatment of delirium precipitants, and subcutaneous midazolam hydrochloride as required for severe distress or safety.

MAIN OUTCOME AND MEASURES

Improvement in mean group difference of delirium symptom score (severity range, 0-6) between baseline and day 3. Five a priori secondary outcomes: delirium severity, midazolam use, extrapyramidal effects, sedation, and survival.

RESULTS

Two hundred forty-seven participants (mean [SD] age, 74.9 [9.8] years; 85 women [34.4%]; 218 with cancer [88.3%]) were included in intention-to-treat analysis (82 receiving risperidone, 81 receiving haloperidol, and 84 receiving placebo). In the primary intention-to-treat analysis, participants in the risperidone arm had delirium symptom scores that were significantly higher than those among participants in the placebo arm (on average 0.48 Units higher; 95% CI, 0.09-0.86; P = .02) at study end. Similarly, for those in the haloperidol arm, delirium symptom scores were on average 0.24 Units higher (95% CI, 0.06-0.42; P = .009) than in the placebo arm. Compared with placebo, patients in both active arms had more extrapyramidal effects (risperidone, 0.73; 95% CI, 0.09-1.37; P = .03; and haloperidol, 0.79; 95% CI, 0.17-1.41; P = .01). Participants in the placebo group had better overall survival than those receiving haloperidol (hazard ratio, 1.73; 95% CI, 1.20-2.50; P = .003), but this was not significant for placebo vs risperidone (hazard ratio, 1.29; 95% CI, 0.91-1.84; P = .14).

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

In patients receiving palliative care, individualized management of delirium precipitants and supportive strategies result in lower scores and shorter duration of target distressing delirium symptoms than when risperidone or haloperidol are added.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

anzctr.org.au Identifier: ACTRN12607000562471.

Double-blind, placebo-controlled, randomized trial of octreotide in malignant bowel obstruction

CONTEXT

Does octreotide reduce vomiting in cancer-associated bowel obstruction?

OBJECTIVES

To evaluate the net effect of adding octreotide or placebo to standardized therapies on the number of days free of vomiting for populations presenting with vomiting and inoperable bowel obstruction secondary to cancer or its treatment.

METHODS

Twelve services enrolled people with advanced cancer presenting with vomiting secondary to bowel obstruction where surgery or anti-cancer therapies were not indicated immediately. In a double-blind study, participants were randomized to placebo or octreotide (600 μg/24 hours by infusion). Both arms received standardized supportive therapy (infusion of ranitidine [200 mg/24 hours], dexamethasone [8 mg/24 hours], and parenteral hydration [10-20 mL/kg/24 hours]). The primary outcome was patient-reported days free of vomiting at 72 hours.

RESULTS

In a study that recruited to the numbers identified in its power calculation, 87 participants provided data at 72 hours (45, octreotide arm). Seventeen people (octreotide) and 14 (placebo) were free of vomiting for 72 hours (P = 0.67). Mean days free of vomiting were 1.87 (SD 1.10; octreotide) and 1.69 (SD 1.15; placebo; P = 0.47). An adjusted multivariate regression of the incidence of vomiting over the study showed a reduced number of episodes of vomiting in the octreotide group (incidence rate ratio = 0.40; 95% CI: 0.19-0.86; P = 0.019); however, people in the octreotide arm were 2.02 times more likely to be administered hyoscine butylbromide (P = 0.004), potentially reflecting increased colicky pain.

CONCLUSION

Although there was no reduction in the number of days free of vomiting, the multivariate analysis suggests that further study of somatostatin analogues in this setting is warranted.

Better informing decision making with multiple outcomes cost-effectiveness analysis under uncertainty in cost-disutility space

INTRODUCTION

Comparing multiple, diverse outcomes with cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) is important, yet challenging in areas like palliative care where domains are unamenable to integration with survival. Generic multi-attribute utility values exclude important domains and non-health outcomes, while partial analyses-where outcomes are considered separately, with their joint relationship under uncertainty ignored-lead to incorrect inference regarding preferred strategies.

OBJECTIVE

The objective of this paper is to consider whether such decision making can be better informed with alternative presentation and summary measures, extending methods previously shown to have advantages in multiple strategy comparison.

METHODS

Multiple outcomes CEA of a home-based palliative care model (PEACH) relative to usual care is undertaken in cost disutility (CDU) space and compared with analysis on the cost-effectiveness plane. Summary measures developed for comparing strategies across potential threshold values for multiple outcomes include: expected net loss (ENL) planes quantifying differences in expected net benefit; the ENL contour identifying preferred strategies minimising ENL and their expected value of perfect information; and cost-effectiveness acceptability planes showing probability of strategies minimising ENL.

RESULTS

Conventional analysis suggests PEACH is cost-effective when the threshold value per additional day at home (𝕜1) exceeds $1,068 or dominated by usual care when only the proportion of home deaths is considered. In contrast, neither alternative dominate in CDU space where cost and outcomes are jointly considered, with the optimal strategy depending on threshold values. For example, PEACH minimises ENL when 𝕜1=$2,000 and 𝕜2=$2,000 (threshold value for dying at home), with a 51.6% chance of PEACH being cost-effective.

CONCLUSION

Comparison in CDU space and associated summary measures have distinct advantages to multiple domain comparisons, aiding transparent and robust joint comparison of costs and multiple effects under uncertainty across potential threshold values for effect, better informing net benefit assessment and related reimbursement and research decisions.

Kinky thresholds revisited: opportunity costs differ in the NE and SW quadrants

Historically, a kinked threshold line on the cost-effectiveness plane at the origin was suggested due to differences in willingness to pay (WTP) for health gain with trade-offs in the north-east (NE) quadrant versus willingness to accept (WTA) cost reductions for health loss with trade-offs in the south-west (SW) quadrant. Empirically, WTA is greater than WTP for equivalent units of health, a finding supported by loss aversion under prospect theory. More recently, appropriate threshold values for health effects have been shown to require an endogenous consideration of the opportunity cost of alternative actions in budget-constrained health systems, but also allocative and displacement inefficiency observed in health system practice. Allocative and displacement inefficiency arise in health systems where the least cost-effective program in contraction has a higher incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER = m) than the most cost-effective program in expansion (ICER = n) and displaced services (ICER = d), respectively. The health shadow price derived by Pekarsky, [Formula: see text] reflects the opportunity cost of best alternative adoption and financing actions in reimbursing new technology with expected incremental costs and net effect allowing for allocative (n < m), and displacement, inefficiency (d < m). This provides an appropriate threshold value for the NE quadrant. In this paper, I show that for trade-offs in the SW quadrant, where new strategies have lower expected net cost while lower expected net effect than current practice, the opportunity cost is contraction of the least cost-effective program, with threshold ICER m. That is, in the SW quadrant, the cost reduction per unit of decreased effect should be compared with the appropriate opportunity cost, best alternative generation of funding. Consequently, appropriate consideration of opportunity cost produces a kink in the threshold at the origin, with the health shadow price in the NE quadrant and ICER of the least cost-effective program in contraction (m) in the SW quadrant having the same general shape as that previously suggested by WTP versus WTA. The extent of this kink depends on the degree of allocative and displacement inefficiency, with no kink in the threshold line strictly only appropriate with complete allocative and displacement efficiency, that is n = d = m.

Evaluating return on investment in a school based health promotion and prevention program: the investment multiplier for the Stephanie Alexander Kitchen Garden National Program

Successful health promotion and disease prevention strategies in complex community settings such as primary schools rely on acceptance and ownership across community networks. Assessing multiplier impacts from investment on related community activity over time are suggested as key alongside evidence of program health effects on targeted groups of individuals in gauging community network engagement and ownership, dynamic impacts, and program long term success and return on investment. An Australian primary school based health promotion and prevention strategy, the Stephanie Alexander Kitchen Garden National Program (SAKGNP), which has been providing garden and kitchen classes for year 3-6 students since 2008, was evaluated between 2011 and 2012. Returns on Australian Federal Government investment for school infrastructure grants up to $60,000 are assessed up to and beyond a two year mutual obligation period with: (i) Impacts on student lifestyle behaviours, food choices and eating habits surveyed across students (n = 491 versus 260) and parents (n = 300 versus 234) in 28 SAKGNP and 14 matched schools, controlling for school and parent level confounders and triangulated with SAKGNP pre-post analysis; (ii) Multiplier impacts of investment on related school and wider community activity up to two years; and (iii) Evidence of continuation and program evolution in schools observed beyond two years. SAKGNP schools showed improved student food choices (p = 0.024) and kitchen lifestyle behaviour (p = 0.019) domains compared to controls and in pre-post analysis where 20.0% (58/290) reported eating fruit and vegetables more often and 18.6% (54/290) preparing food at home more often. No significant differences were found in case control analysis for eating habits or garden lifestyle behaviour domains, although 32.3% of children helped more in the garden (91/278) and 15.6% (45/289) ate meals together more often in pre-post analysis. The multiplier impact on total community activity up to two years was 5.07 ($226,737/$44,758); 1.60 attributable to school, and 2.47 to wider community, activity. All 8 schools observed beyond two years continued garden and kitchen classes, with an average 17% scaling up and one school fully integrating staff into the curriculum. In conclusion evidence supports the SAKGNP to be a successful health promotion program with high community network impacts and return on investment in practice.

Preliminary development and validation of a new end-of-life patient-reported outcome measure assessing the ability of patients to finalise their affairs at the end of life

Introduction

The ability of patients to finalise their affairs at the end of life is an often neglected aspect of quality of life (QOL) measurement in palliative care effectiveness research despite compelling evidence of the high value patients place on this domain.

Objective

This paper describes the preliminary development and evaluation of a new, single-item, end-of-life patient-reported outcome measure (EOLPRO) designed to capture changes in the ability of patients to finalise their affairs at the end of life.

Methods

Cognitive interviews with purposively sampled Australian palliative care patients (N = 9) were analysed thematically to explore content validity. Simultaneously, secondary analysis of data from a randomised controlled trial comparing ketamine and placebo for the management of cancer pain (N = 185) evaluated: construct validity; test-retest reliability; and responsiveness.

Results

Preliminary findings suggest patients interpret the new measure consistently. The EOLPRO captures the ability to complete physical tasks and finalise practical matters although it is unclear whether emotional tasks or resolution of relationship issues are considered. Personal and financial affairs should be separated to allow for differences in ability for these two types of affairs. The significant correlation between performance status and EOLPRO scores (r = 0.41, p<0.01, n = 137) and expected relationships between EOLPRO and proximity to death and constipation demonstrated construct validity. Pre- and post-treatment EOLPRO scores moderately agreed (n = 14, κ = 0.52 [95% CI 0.19, 0.84]) supporting reliability. The measure’s apparent lack of sensitivity to discriminate between treatment responders and non-responders may be confounded.

Conclusion

Based on the preliminary findings, the EOLPRO should be separated into ‘personal’ and ‘financial’ affairs with further testing suggested, particularly to verify coverage and responsiveness. Initial evaluation suggests that the single-item EOLPRO is a useful addition to QOL outcome measurement in palliative care effectiveness research because common palliative care specific QOL questionnaires do not include or explicitly capture this domain.

Can the real opportunity cost stand up: displaced services, the straw man outside the room

In current literature, displaced services have been suggested to provide a basis for determining a threshold value for the effects of a new technology as part of a reimbursement process when budgets are fixed. We critically examine the conditions under which displaced services would represent an economically meaningful threshold value. We first show that if we assume that the least cost-effective services are displaced to finance a new technology, then the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of the displaced services (d) only coincides with that related to the opportunity cost of adopting that new technology, the ICER of the most cost-effective service in expansion (n), under highly restrictive conditions-namely, complete allocative efficiency in existing provision of health care interventions. More generally, reimbursement of new technology with a fixed budget comprises two actions; adoption and financing through displacement and the effect of reimbursement is the net effect of these two actions. In order for the reimbursement process to be a pathway to allocative efficiency within a fixed budget, the net effect of the strategy of reimbursement is compared with the most cost-effective alternative strategy for reimbursement: optimal reallocation, the health gain maximizing expansion of existing services financed by the health loss minimizing contraction. The shadow price of the health effects of a new technology, βc = (1/n + 1/d - 1/m)(-1), accounts for both imperfect displacement (the ICER of the displaced service, d < m, the ICER of the least cost-effective of the existing services in contraction) and the allocative inefficiency (n < m) characteristic of health systems.

Optimal global value of information trials: better aligning manufacturer and decision maker interests and enabling feasible risk sharing

Risk sharing arrangements relate to adjusting payments for new health technologies given evidence of their performance over time. Such arrangements rely on prospective information regarding the incremental net benefit of the new technology, and its use in practice. However, once the new technology has been adopted in a particular jurisdiction, randomized clinical trials within that jurisdiction are likely to be infeasible and unethical in the cases where they would be most helpful, i.e. with current evidence of positive while uncertain incremental health and net monetary benefit. Informed patients in these cases would likely be reluctant to participate in a trial, preferring instead to receive the new technology with certainty. Consequently, informing risk sharing arrangements within a jurisdiction is problematic given the infeasibility of collecting prospective trial data. To overcome such problems, we demonstrate that global trials facilitate trialling post adoption, leading to more complete and robust risk sharing arrangements that mitigate the impact of costs of reversal on expected value of information in jurisdictions who adopt while a global trial is undertaken. More generally, optimally designed global trials offer distinct advantages over locally optimal solutions for decision makers and manufacturers alike: avoiding opportunity costs of delay in jurisdictions that adopt; overcoming barriers to evidence collection; and improving levels of expected implementation. Further, the greater strength and translatability of evidence across jurisdictions inherent in optimal global trial design reduces barriers to translation across jurisdictions characteristic of local trials. Consequently, efficiently designed global trials better align the interests of decision makers and manufacturers, increasing the feasibility of risk sharing and the expected strength of evidence over local trials, up until the point that current evidence is globally sufficient.

Primary care vs specialist sleep center management of obstructive sleep apnea and daytime sleepiness and quality of life: a randomized trial

IMPORTANCE

Due to increasing demand for sleep services, there has been growing interest in ambulatory models of care for patients with obstructive sleep apnea. With appropriate training and simplified management tools, primary care physicians are ideally positioned to take on a greater role in diagnosis and treatment.

OBJECTIVE

To compare the clinical efficacy and within-trial costs of a simplified model of diagnosis and care in primary care relative to that in specialist sleep centers.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PATIENTS

A randomized, controlled, noninferiority study involving 155 patients with obstructive sleep apnea that was treated at primary care practices (n=81) in metropolitan Adelaide, 3 rural regions of South Australia or at a university hospital sleep medicine center in Adelaide, Australia (n = 74), between September 2008 and June 2010.

INTERVENTIONS

Primary care management of obstructive sleep apnea vs usual care in a specialist sleep center; both plans included continuous positive airway pressure, mandibular advancement splints, or conservative measures only.

MAIN OUTCOME AND MEASURES

The primary outcome was 6-month change in Epworth Sleepiness Scale (ESS) score, which ranges from 0 (no daytime sleepiness) to 24 points (high level of daytime sleepiness). The noninferiority margin was -2.0. Secondary outcomes included disease-specific and general quality of life measures, obstructive sleep apnea symptoms, adherence to using continuous positive airway pressure, patient satisfaction, and health care costs.

RESULTS

There were significant improvements in ESS scores from baseline to 6 months in both groups. In the primary care group, the mean baseline score of 12.8 decreased to 7.0 at 6 months (P < .001), and in the specialist group, the score decreased from a mean of 12.5 to 7.0 (P < .001). Primary care management was noninferior to specialist management with a mean change in ESS score of 5.8 vs 5.4 (adjusted difference, -0.13; lower bound of 1-sided 95% CI, -1.5; P = .43). There were no differences in secondary outcome measures between groups. Seventeen patients (21%) withdrew from the study in the primary care group vs 6 patients (8%) in the specialist group.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

Among patients with obstructive sleep apnea, treatment under a primary care model compared with a specialist model did not result in worse sleepiness scores, suggesting that the 2 treatment modes may be comparable. TRIAL REGISTRATION anzctr.org.au Identifier: ACTRN12608000514303.

Comparative effectiveness of 5-fluorouracil with and without oxaliplatin in the treatment of colorectal cancer in clinical practice

BACKGROUND

First-line chemotherapeutic treatment of colorectal cancer (CRC) typically comprises oral (capecitabine) or intravenous 5-fluorouracil (5-FU) plus leucovorin (LV), in combination with oxaliplatin (XELOX or FOLFOX, respectively), although debate exists regarding the best course of treatment by modality in clinical practice. Evidence from practice comparisons is important in considering the net benefit of alternative chemotherapy regimens, given expected differences in survival associated with compliance and age of patients treated in real life versus controlled trial settings.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

Practice variation in 5-FU treatment (i.e. 5-FU/leucovorin, FOLFOX, capecitabine and XELOX) of patients with CRC from an Australian area health service (n=636) was analyzed between modalities by patient age, tumour stage and site using non-parametric tests. Survival analyses (n=434) were conducted over a three-year follow-up period using Cox regression, adjusting for observed confounders.

RESULTS

FOLFOX was the most commonly administered regimen. 5-FU modality was significantly associated with patient age (p<0.001), tumour stage (p<0.001) and site (p<0.001). Cox regression analyses found no significant difference in survival with the addition of oxaliplatin to 5-FU regimens.

CONCLUSION

Our findings suggested no survival benefit with the addition of oxaliplatin to 5-FU modalities in treating CRC in practice. This raises questions as to the net benefit of oxaliplatin, given its known toxicity profile and expense.

Accounting for between-study variation in incremental net benefit in value of information methodology

Previous applications of value of information methods for determining optimal sample size in randomized clinical trials have assumed no between-study variation in mean incremental net benefit. By adopting a hierarchical model, we provide a solution for determining optimal sample size with this assumption relaxed. The solution is illustrated with two examples from the literature. Expected net gain increases with increasing between-study variation, reflecting the increased uncertainty in incremental net benefit and reduced extent to which data are borrowed from previous evidence. Hence, a trial can become optimal where current evidence is sufficient assuming no between-study variation. However, despite the expected net gain increasing, the optimal sample size in the illustrated examples is relatively insensitive to the amount of between-study variation. Further percentage losses in expected net gain were small even when choosing sample sizes that reflected widely different between-study variation.

Randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled study to assess the efficacy and toxicity of subcutaneous ketamine in the management of cancer pain

PURPOSE

The anesthetic ketamine is widely used for pain related to cancer, but the evidence to support its use in this setting is weak. This study aimed to determine whether ketamine is more effective than placebo when used in conjunction with opioids and standard adjuvant therapy in the management of chronic uncontrolled cancer pain. Ketamine would be considered of net benefit if it provided clinically relevant improvement in pain with limited breakthrough analgesia and acceptable toxicity.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

In this multisite, dose-escalation, double-blind, randomized, placebo-controlled phase III trial, ketamine or placebo was delivered subcutaneously over 3 to 5 days.

RESULTS

In all, 185 participants were included in the primary analysis. There was no significant difference between the proportion of positive outcomes (0.04; 95% CI, -0.10 to 0.18; P = .55) in the placebo and intervention arms (response rates, 27% [25 of 92] and 31% [29 of 93]). Pain type (nociceptive v neuropathic) was not a predictor of response. There was almost twice the incidence of adverse events worse than baseline in the ketamine group after day 1 (incidence rate ratio, 1.95; 95% CI, 1.46 to 2.61; P < .001) and throughout the study. Those receiving ketamine were more likely to experience a more severe grade of adverse event per day (odds ratio, 1.09; 95% CI, 1.00 to 1.18; P = .039). The number of patients needed to treat for one additional patient to have a positive outcome from ketamine was 25 (95% CI, six to ∞). The number needed to harm, because of toxicity-related withdrawal, was six (95% CI, four to 13).

CONCLUSION

Ketamine does not have net clinical benefit when used as an adjunct to opioids and standard coanalgesics in cancer pain.

Modeling the cost-effectiveness of strategies for treating esophageal adenocarcinoma and high-grade dysplasia

OBJECTIVE

This study aims to synthesize cost and health outcomes for current treatment pathways for esophageal adenocarcinoma and high-grade dysplasia (HGD) and to model comparative net clinical and economic benefits of alternative management scenarios.

METHODS

A decision-analytic model of real-world practices for esophageal adenocarcinoma treatment by tumor stage was constructed and validated. The model synthesized treatment probabilities, survival, quality of life, and resource use extracted from epidemiological datasets, published literature, and expert opinion. Comparative analyses between current practice and five hypothetical scenarios for modified treatment were undertaken.

RESULTS

Over 5 years, outcomes across T stage ranged from 4.06 quality-adjusted life-years and costs of $3,179 for HGD to 1.62 quality-adjusted life-years and costs of $50,226 for stage T4. Greater use of endoscopic mucosal resection for stage T1 and measures to reduce esophagectomy mortality to 0-3 % produced modest gains, whereas a 20 % reduction in the proportion of patients presenting at stage T3 produced large incremental net benefits of $4,971 (95 % interval, $1,560-8,368).

CONCLUSION

These findings support measures that promote earlier diagnosis, such as developing risk assessment processes or endoscopic surveillance of Barrett's esophagus. Incremental net monetary benefits for other strategies are relatively small in comparison to predicted gains from early detection strategies.

Value of information and pricing new healthcare interventions

Previous application of value-of-information methods to optimal clinical trial design have predominantly taken a societal decision-making perspective, implicitly assuming that healthcare costs are covered through public expenditure and trial research is funded by government or donation-based philanthropic agencies. In this paper, we consider the interaction between interrelated perspectives of a societal decision maker (e.g. the National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence [NICE] in the UK) charged with the responsibility for approving new health interventions for reimbursement and the company that holds the patent for a new intervention. We establish optimal decision making from societal and company perspectives, allowing for trade-offs between the value and cost of research and the price of the new intervention. Given the current level of evidence, there exists a maximum (threshold) price acceptable to the decision maker. Submission for approval with prices above this threshold will be refused. Given the current level of evidence and the decision maker's threshold price, there exists a minimum (threshold) price acceptable to the company. If the decision maker's threshold price exceeds the company's, then current evidence is sufficient since any price between the thresholds is acceptable to both. On the other hand, if the decision maker's threshold price is lower than the company's, then no price is acceptable to both and the company's optimal strategy is to commission additional research. The methods are illustrated using a recent example from the literature.

A multi-site, fixed dose, parallel arm, double-blind, placebo controlled, block randomised trial of the addition of infusional octreotide or placebo to regular ranitidine and dexamethasone for the evaluation of vomiting associated with bowel obstruction at the end of life

TPS9153

Background: Bowel obstruction due to advanced cancer that is surgically inoperable is a major management problem. Studies to date have either been underpowered or have used comparators that may not draw on the best available evidence. Methods: This double-blind, block randomised, placebo controlled, set dose, parallel arm study was conducted across 12 sites in Australia. Eligibility included inoperable bowel obstruction secondary to cancer or its treatments. The intervention was the addition of infusional octreotide or placebo in addition to 200mg ranitidine per 24 hours parenterally and 4mg per 24 hours parenterally of dexamethasone. The primary outcome measure was the numbers of days free of vomiting up to 72 hours after all medications were administered the first time. Participants were also administered between 10-20mls per hour of subcutaneous isotonic fluid over the 72 hour period. Results: This study will close to recruitment in March 2012. To date 89 of 92 required participants have been randomised. Conclusions: This adequately powered study will define the additional net clinical benefit derived from octreotide over placebo in people who have an anti-secretary agent (ranitidine) and glucocorticoids (dexamethasone).

A randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled study to assess the efficacy and toxicity of subcutaneous ketamine in the management of cancer pain

2604

Background: The dissociative anaesthetic ketamine is widely used for cancer related pain. A Cochrane review concluded that insufficient evidence was available to support its use in this setting. Methods: This phase III, multisite, double-blind, dose escalation, placebo, randomised controlled study aimed to determine whether ketamine, delivered subcutaneously over three to five days is more effective than placebo, when used in conjunction with adjuvant therapy in the management of chronic uncontrolled cancer pain. Ketamine would be considered to be of net benefit if it provided a reduction in average pain scores by ≥2/10 points from baseline, with limited breakthrough analgesia and acceptable toxicity. Results: For the 185 participants, there was no significant difference between the proportion of positive outcomes (0.04 (-0.10, 0.18) p=0.55) in the placebo and intervention arms (response rates 27% (25/92) and 31% (29/93)). Pain type (nociceptive versus neuropathic) was not a predictor of response. There was almost twice the incidence of adverse events worse than baseline in the ketamine group after day 1 (IRR = 1.95 (1.46, 2.61), p<0.001) and throughout the study. Those receiving ketamine were more likely to experience a more severe grade of adverse event/day (OR=1.09 (1.00, 1.18), p=0.039). The number needed to treat for one additional patient to get a positive outcome from ketamine was 25 (6, ∞). The number needed to harm, because of toxicity-related withdrawal was 6 (4, 13). Conclusions: Ketamine does not have net clinical benefit when used as an adjunct to opioids and standard co-analgesics in cancer pain.

Healthcare resource use and medical costs for the management of oesophageal cancer

BACKGROUND

This study examined the interaction between natural history, current practice patterns in diagnosis, monitoring and treatment of oesophageal cancer, and associated health resource utilization and costs.

METHODS

A cost analysis of a prospective population-based cohort of 1100 patients with a primary diagnosis of oesophageal cancer was performed using chart review from the Australian Cancer Study Clinical Follow-Up Study. The analysis enabled estimation of healthcare resources and associated costs in 2009 euros by stage of disease and treatment pathway.

RESULTS

Most patients (88·5 per cent) presented with stage II, III or IV cancer; 61·1 per cent (672 of 1100) were treated surgically. Overall mean costs were €37,195 (median €29,114) for patients undergoing surgery and €17,281 (median €13,066) for those treated without surgery. Surgery contributed 66·4 per cent of the total costs (mean €24,697 per patient) in the surgical group. In the non-surgical group, use of chemotherapy was more prevalent (81·9 per cent of patients) and contributed 61·1 per cent of the total costs. Other important cost determinants were gastro-oesophageal junction tumours, treatment location and tumour stage. Mean costs of those monitored for Barrett's oesophagus (7·3 per cent of patients) were lower, although about one-third still presented with advanced-stage cancer.

CONCLUSION

Overall costs for managing oesophageal cancer were high and dominated by surgery costs in patients treated surgically and by chemotherapy costs in patients treated without surgery. Radiotherapy, treatment location and cancer subtype were also important. Monitoring for Barrett's oesophagus and earlier-stage detection were associated with lower management costs, but the potential net benefit from surveillance strategies needs further investigation.

Presenting evidence and summary measures to best inform societal decisions when comparing multiple strategies

Multiple strategy comparisons in health technology assessment (HTA) are becoming increasingly important, with multiple alternative therapeutic actions, combinations of therapies and diagnostic and genetic testing alternatives. Comparison under uncertainty of incremental cost, effects and cost effectiveness across more than two strategies is conceptually and practically very different from that for two strategies, where all evidence can be summarized in a single bivariate distribution on the incremental cost-effectiveness plane. Alternative methods for comparing multiple strategies in HTA have been developed in (i) presenting cost and effects on the cost-disutility plane and (ii) summarizing evidence with multiple strategy cost-effectiveness acceptability (CEA) and expected net loss (ENL) curves and frontiers. However, critical questions remain for the analyst and decision maker of how these techniques can be best employed across multiple strategies to (i) inform clinical and cost inference in presenting evidence, and (ii) summarize evidence of cost effectiveness to inform societal reimbursement decisions where preferences may be risk neutral or somewhat risk averse under the Arrow-Lind theorem. We critically consider how evidence across multiple strategies can be best presented and summarized to inform inference and societal reimbursement decisions, given currently available methods. In the process, we make a number of important original findings. First, in presenting evidence for multiple strategies, the joint distribution of costs and effects on the cost-disutility plane with associated flexible comparators varying across replicates for cost and effect axes ensure full cost and effect inference. Such inference is usually confounded on the cost-effectiveness plane with comparison relative to a fixed origin and axes. Second, in summarizing evidence for risk-neutral societal decision making, ENL curves and frontiers are shown to have advantages over the CEA frontier in directly presenting differences in expected net benefit (ENB). The CEA frontier, while identifying strategies that maximize ENB, only presents their probability of maximizing net benefit (NB) and, hence, fails to explain why strategies maximize ENB at any given threshold value. Third, in summarizing evidence for somewhat risk-averse societal decision making, trade-offs between the strategy maximizing ENB and other potentially optimal strategies with higher probability of maximizing NB should be presented over discrete threshold values where they arise. However, the probabilities informing these trade-offs and associated discrete threshold value regions should be derived from bilateral CEA curves to prevent confounding by other strategies inherent in multiple strategy CEA curves. Based on these findings, a series of recommendations are made for best presenting and summarizing cost-effectiveness evidence for reimbursement decisions when comparing multiple strategies, which are contrasted with advice for comparing two strategies. Implications for joint research and reimbursement decisions are also discussed.