Nitrogen and phosphorus use efficiencies in dairy production in china

How the type of dairy production system affects the nutrient balance from an environmental and economic perspective

The knowledge of nutrient flow in dairy farms has to be explored to find optimized strategies for efficient nutrient conversion to milk. This study aims to improve the understanding of variances in nitrogen and phosphorus balance and efficiency indicators between dairy farm systems. The study analyzed 67 dairy cattle farms located in the watershed Lajeado Tacongava, Rio Grande do Sul State, Brazil. Selected dairy farms represented three production systems: confined (3 farms); semi-confined (7 farms); pasture-based (57 farms). Input-output nutrient balances were calculated at the dairy system level for nitrogen and phosphorus over a year. Inputs are feed and fertilizer and outputs are milk and meat. The main nitrogen and phosphorus input on the all farms resulted from the feed. The average N and P surplus on pasture-based farms were 352 and 49 kg ha-1 year-1, respectively. In semi-confined systems were 508 and 63 kg ha-1 year-1 and in confined systems were 786 and 70 kg ha-1 year-1. When considering the monetary value of the total N surplus, the averages were US$ 2.615, 4.950, and 12.171 for pasture-based, semi-confined and confined systems respectively. Monetary values of P surplus were US$ 346, 588, and 1119 for pasture-based, semi-confined and confined. The productive aspects that most determined the values of N and P surplus were the total number of lactating cows and the farm area. Results indicate that surplus can partially replace chemical nitrogen fertilizer, except in the confined system, and fully replace phosphorus fertilizer. Confined farms presented values to use surplus as fertilizer greater than the crop demand. For the other production systems, it happens only for phosphorus. Large variability between dairy farms of the same production system and between different production systems was observed. It reflects the inherent productive, economic, and environmental conditions of each farm and system.

Mitigation Measures Could Aggravate Unbalanced Nitrogen and Phosphorus Emissions from Land-Use Activities

Socioeconomic factors and mitigation potentials are essential drivers of the dynamics of nutrient emissions, yet these drivers are rarely examined at broad spatiotemporal scales. Here, we combine material flow analysis and geospatial analysis to examine the past and future changes of nitrogen and phosphorus emissions in China. Results show that anthropogenic nitrogen and phosphorus emissions increased by 17% and 32% during 2000-2019, respectively. Meanwhile, many regions witnessed decreasing nitrogen emissions but rising phosphorus discharged to waterbody, leading to a 20% decrease in the nitrogen/phosphorus ratio. In addition to many prominent factors like fertilizer use, the increasing impervious land area around cities is a notable factor driving the emissions, indicating the urgency to limit building expansion, especially in North China Plain and other less-developed regions. Improving land-use efficiency and consuming behaviors could reduce nitrogen and phosphorus emissions by 65-77% in 2030, but the nitrogen/phosphorus ratio will increase unintendedly due to larger reduction potentials for phosphorus, which may deteriorate the aquatic ecosystem. We highlight that nitrogen and phosphorus emissions should be reduced with coordinated but differentiated measures by prioritizing nitrogen reduction through cropland and food-system management.

Predicting nitrogen use efficiency, nitrogen loss and dry matter intake of individual dairy cows in late lactation by including mid-infrared spectra of milk samples

BACKGROUND

Nitrate leaching to groundwater and surface water and ammonia volatilization from dairy farms have negative impacts on the environment. Meanwhile, the increasing demand for dairy products will result in more pollution if N losses are not controlled. Therefore, a more efficient, and environmentally friendly production system is needed, in which nitrogen use efficiency (NUE) of dairy cows plays a key role. To genetically improve NUE, extensively recorded and cost-effective proxies are essential, which can be obtained by including mid-infrared (MIR) spectra of milk in prediction models for NUE. This study aimed to develop and validate the best prediction model of NUE, nitrogen loss (NL) and dry matter intake (DMI) for individual dairy cows in China.

RESULTS

A total of 86 lactating Chinese Holstein cows were used in this study. After data editing, 704 records were obtained for calibration and validation. Six prediction models with three different machine learning algorithms and three kinds of pre-processed MIR spectra were developed for each trait. Results showed that the coefficient of determination (R²) of the best model in within-herd validation was 0.66 for NUE, 0.58 for NL and 0.63 for DMI. For external validation, reasonable prediction results were only observed for NUE, with R² ranging from 0.58 to 0.63, while the R² of the other two traits was below 0.50. The infrared waves from 973.54 to 988.46 cm^-1 and daily milk yield were the most important variables for prediction.

CONCLUSION

The results showed that individual NUE can be predicted with a moderate accuracy in both within-herd and external validations. The model of NUE could be used for the datasets that are similar to the calibration dataset. The prediction models for NL and 3-day moving average of DMI (DMI_a) generated lower accuracies in within-herd validation. Results also indicated that information of MIR spectra variables increased the predictive ability of models. Additionally, pre-processed MIR spectra do not result in higher accuracy than original MIR spectra in the external validation. These models will be applied to large-scale data to further investigate the genetic architecture of N efficiency and further reduce the adverse impacts on the environment after more data is collected.

Nitrogen in the Yangtze River Basin: Pollution Reduction through Coupling Crop and Livestock Production

Livestock production poses a threat to water quality worldwide. A better understanding of the contribution of individual livestock species to nitrogen (N) pollution in rivers is essential to improve water quality. This paper aims to quantify inputs of dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) to the Yangtze River from different livestock species at multiple scales and explore ways for reducing these inputs through coupling crop and livestock production. We extended the previously developed model MARINA (Model to Assess River Input of Nutrient to seAs) with the NUFER (Nutrient flows in Food chains, Environment, and Resource use) approach for livestock. Results show that DIN inputs to the Yangtze River vary across basins, sub-basins, and 0.5° grids, as well as across livestock species. In 2012, livestock production resulted in 2000 Gg of DIN inputs to the Yangtze River. Pig production was responsible for 55-85% of manure-related DIN inputs. Rivers in the downstream sub-basin received higher manure-related DIN inputs than rivers in the other sub-basins. Around 20% of the Yangtze basin is considered as a manure-related hotspot of river pollution. Recycling manure on cropland can avoid direct discharges of manure from pig production and thus reduce river pollution. The potential for recycling manure is larger in cereal production than in other crop species. Our results can help to identify effective solutions for coupling crop and livestock production in the Yangtze basin.

Characterization and mitigation option of greenhouse gas emissions from lactating Holstein dairy cows in East China

BACKGROUND

This study investigated greenhouse gas (GHG) emission characteristics of lactating Holstein dairy cows in East China and provided a basis for formulating GHG emission reduction measures. GreenFeed system was used to measure the amount of methane (CH₄) and carbon dioxide (CO₂) emitted by the cows through respiration. Data from a commercial cow farm were used to observe the effects of parity, body weight, milk yield, and milk component yield on CH₄ and CO₂ emissions.

RESULTS

Mean herd responses throughout the study were as follows: 111 cows completed all experimental processes, while 42 cows were rejected because they were sick or had not visited the GreenFeed system 20 times. On average, lactating days of cows was 138 ± 19.04 d, metabolic weight was 136.5 ± 9.5 kg, parity was 2.8 ± 1.0, dry matter intake (DMI) was 23.1 ± 2.6 kg/d, and milk yield was 38.1 ± 6.9 kg/d. The GreenFeed system revealed that CH₄ production (expressed in CO₂ equivalent, CO₂-eq) was found to be 8304 g/d, [Formula: see text]/DMI was 359 g/kg, [Formula: see text]/energy-corrected milk (ECM) was 229.5 g/kg, total CO₂ production (CH₄ production plus CO₂ production) was 19,201 g/d, total CO₂/DMI was 831 g/kg, and total CO₂/ECM was 531 g/kg. The parity and metabolic weight of cows had no significant effect on total CO₂ emissions (P > 0.05). Cows with high milk yield, milk fat yield, milk protein yield, and total milk solids yield produced more total CO₂ (P < 0.05), but their total CO₂ production per kg of ECM was low (P < 0.05). The total CO₂/ECM of the medium and high milk yield groups was 17% and 27% lower than that of the low milk yield group, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

The parity and body condition had no effect on total CO₂ emissions, while the total CO₂/ECM was negatively correlated with milk yield, milk fat yield, milk protein yield, and total milk solids yield in lactating Holstein dairy cows. Measurement of total CO₂ emissions of dairy cows in the Chinese production system will help establish regional or national GHG inventories and develop mitigation approaches to dairy production regimes.

Nitrogen budgets of contrasting crop-livestock systems in China

The crop-livestock system is responsible for a large proportion of global reactive nitrogen (Nr) losses, especially from China. There are diverse livestock systems with contrasting differences in feed, livestock and manure management. However, it is not yet well understood which factors greatly impact on the nitrogen (N) budgets and losses of each system. In this study, we systematically evaluated the N budgets of the crop-livestock production system from 1980 to 2050 in China by identifying the differences of 20 distinct livestock systems. During 1980 to 2010, the total N flow through the crop-livestock system increased from 21.4 to 49.7 Tg, with large variations in different input/output pathways, due to the strong livestock transitions of production towards to a monogastric and landless industrial system. Different systems contributed differently to the total N budgets in 2010. For example, the landless industrial system contributed 67% of livestock product N output, but accounted for 80% of total mineral N fertilizer use and feed N imports by the whole crop-livestock system. The mixed system had the highest rate of N use efficiency at system level due to high dependence on recycled N. N losses were diversely distributed by different systems, with the mixed ruminant system responsible for the majority of NH₃-N emission in livestock production, and the grazing ruminant system dominant in NO₃-N losses in feed production. The total N entering the crop-livestock system is estimated to be 53.9 Tg with total N losses of 41.3 Tg in 2050 under a business-as-usual scenario. However, this amount could be significantly decreased through combined measures that indicate a considerable potential for future improvements. Overall, our results provide new insights into N use and the management of livestock production.

Spatiotemporal analysis of anthropogenic phosphorus fluxes in China

Anthropogenic phosphorus supports food systems while have caused water pollution and posed challenges to the ecosystems. The increasing socioeconomic interactions between regions and systems have added more complexities to manage the sustainability of effective phosphorus use that requires joint analyses of multiple regions or multiple systems of phosphorus flow. This study builds a framework to systematically model the phosphorus fluxes in China based on material flow analysis. This model consists of phosphorus industrial system, agricultural planting system, rural residential system, urban residential system, large-scale livestock breeding system and household livestock breeding system. This study further explored the temporal and spatial characteristics of phosphorus fluxes in terms of phosphorus utilization efficiency and water load during 1995-2015. The results showed that the total amount of phosphorus input in China had increased nearly 1.78 times during 1995-2015, of which about 85% is used for fertilizer production. The phosphorus utilization rates of urban residential and large-scale livestock breeding systems remained low with a declining trend, dropping to 5%. The phosphorus water load peaked and declined during the study period. Among them, the phosphorus water load in large-scale and household livestock breeding systems accounted for more than 60% of the total. In spatial dimension, Southwest China is the region with the largest input of phosphorus, about 375.33 × 10⁴ t, while Northeast China is the region with the largest phosphorus water load, about 28.06 × 10⁴ t.

Reducing Ammonia Emissions from Dairy Cattle Production via Cost-Effective Manure Management Techniques in China

This study analyzed ammonia reduction potential and related costs and benefits of several ammonia emission reduction technologies applicable for dairy production from cattle in China. Specifically, these included diet manipulation, manure acidification, manure/slurry covers, and solid manure compaction. Ammonia emissions for China were estimated using the GAINS and NUFER models, while mitigation potentials of technologies were determined from laboratory studies. Ammonia reduction potentials from dairy production in China ranged from 0.8 to 222 Gg NH₃ year^-1 for the selected technologies. Implementation costs ranged from a savings of US$15 kg^-1 NH₃ abated to an expenditure of US$45 kg^-1 NH₃ abated, while the total implementation costs varied from a savings of US$1.5 billion in 2015 to an expenditure of a similar size. The best NH₃ reduction technology was manure acidification, while the most cost-effective option was diet optimization with lower crude protein input. For most abatement options, material costs were the critical element of overall costs. The fertilizer value of manure could partly offset the implementation cost of the options tested. Furthermore, benefits due to avoided health damage, as a result of reducing NH₃ emissions, could make all abatement options (except for manure compaction) profitable on the scale of a national economy.

Exploring Future Food Provision Scenarios for China

Developing sustainable food systems is essential, especially for emerging economies, where food systems are changing rapidly and affect the environment and natural resources. We explored possible future pathways for a sustainable food system in China, using multiple environmental indicators linked to eight of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Forecasts for 2030 in a business as usual scenario (BAU) indicate increases in animal food consumption as well as increased shortages of the land available and the water needed to produce the required food in China. Associated greenhouse gas emissions and nitrogen and phosphorus losses could become 10-42% of global emissions in 2010. We developed three main pathways besides BAU [produce more and better food (PMB), consume and waste less food (CWL), and import more food (IMF)] and analyzed their impacts and contributions to achieving one or more of the eight SDGs. Under these scenarios, the demand for land and water and the emissions of GHG and nutrients may decrease by 7-55% compared to BAU, depending on the pathway followed. A combination of PMB and CWL was most effective, while IMF externalizes impacts to countries exporting to China. Modestly increasing feed or food imports in a selective manner could ease the pressure on natural resources. Our modeling framework allows us to analyze the effects of changes in food production-consumption systems in an integrated manner, and the results can be linked to the eight SDGs. Despite formidable technological, social, educational, and structural barriers that need to be overcome, our study indicates that the ambitious targets of China's new agricultural and environmental strategy appear to be achievable.

Nutrient use efficiencies, losses, and abatement strategies for peri-urban dairy production systems

Manure management is an important aspect of urban livestock production that has a profound impact on metropolitan living. Data were collected from 28 dairy farms in peri-urban Beijing and analysed to determine farm nitrogen and phosphorus flows and costs associated with various manure management options to reduce nutrient losses. Dairy production in peri-urban Beijing was characterized by its use of high protein diets (16.3-17.0% crude protein), high reliance on imported feeds (92-98%), and low manure recycling (3.0-10.8%). Farms of 900-2000 cattle showed lower use efficiencies than farms of <900 cattle. Costs of manure handling ranged from 0.1 to 1.0 Yuan kg^-1 milk. Among various manure treatment options, biogas digesters with aerobic lagoons had the lowest N losses and costs, justifying their investments. In conclusion, peri-urban dairy production systems were contrasting with traditional systems and within their own systems in nutrient use efficiency and losses, which was mainly decided by their farm size. To improve the nutrient use efficiencies and reduce losses, farmers and managers of peri-urban dairy production system should have a full awareness of different feed intake and manure management.

A global strategy to mitigate the environmental impact of China's ruminant consumption boom

Rising demand for ruminant meat and dairy products in developing countries is expected to double anthropogenic greenhouse gas and ammonia emissions from livestock by 2050. Mitigation strategies are urgently needed to meet demand while minimizing environmental impacts. Here, we develop scenarios for mitigating emissions under local vs global supply policies using data from 308 livestock farms across mainland China, where emissions intensities are ~50% higher than those in developed nations. Intensification of domestic production and globalized expansion through increased trade result in reductions in global emissions by nearly 30% over a business-as-usual scenario, but at the expense of trading partners absorbing the associated negative externalities of environmental degradation. Only adoption of a mixed strategy combining global best-practice in sustainable intensification of domestic production, with increased green-source trading as a short-term coping strategy, can meet 2050 demand while minimizing the local and global environmental footprint of China’s ruminant consumption boom.

Rising demand for ruminant meat and dairy products in developing nations drives increasing GHG and ammonia emissions from livestock. Authors show here that only long-term adoption of global best-practice in sustainable intensification buffered by a short-term coping strategy of green-source trading can offer a way forward.

China's livestock transition: Driving forces, impacts, and consequences

China's livestock industry has experienced a vast transition during the last three decades, with profound effects on domestic and global food provision, resource use, nitrogen and phosphorus losses, and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. We provide a comprehensive analysis of the driving forces around this transition and its national and global consequences. The number of livestock units (LUs) tripled in China in less than 30 years, mainly through the growth of landless industrial livestock production systems and the increase in monogastric livestock (from 62 to 74% of total LUs). Changes were fueled through increases in demand as well as, supply of new breeds, new technology, and government support. Production of animal source protein increased 4.9 times, nitrogen use efficiency at herd level tripled, and average feed use and GHG emissions per gram protein produced decreased by a factor of 2 between 1980 and 2010. In the same period, animal feed imports have increased 49 times, total ammonia and GHG emissions to the atmosphere doubled, and nitrogen losses to watercourses tripled. As a consequence, China's livestock transition has significant global impact. Forecasts for 2050, using the Shared Socio-economic Pathways scenarios, indicate major further changes in livestock production and impacts. On the basis of these possible trajectories, we suggest an alternative transition, which should be implemented by government, processing industries, consumers, and retailers. This new transition is targeted to increase production efficiency and environmental performance at system level, with coupling of crop-livestock production, whole chain manure management, and spatial planning as major components.

Hotspots for Nitrogen and Phosphorus Losses from Food Production in China: A County-Scale Analysis

Food production in China results in large losses of nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) to the environment. Our objective is to identify hotspots for N and P losses to the environment from food production in China at the county scale. To do this, we used the NUFER (Nutrient flows in Food chains, Environment and Resources use) model. Between 1990 and 2012, the hotspot area expanded by a factor of 3 for N, and 24 for P. In 2012 most hotspots were found in the North China Plain. Hotspots covered less than 10% of the Chinese land area, but contributed by more than half to N and P losses to the environment. Direct discharge of animal manure to rivers was an important cause of N and P losses. Food production was found to be more intensive in hotspots than in other counties. Synthetic fertilizer use and animal numbers in hotspots were a factor of 4-5 higher than in other counties in 2012. Also the number of people working in food production and the incomes of farmers are higher in hotspots than in other counties. This study concludes with suggestions for region-specific pollution control technologies for food production in China.

Global environmental costs of China's thirst for milk

China has an ever-increasing thirst for milk, with a predicted 3.2-fold increase in demand by 2050 compared to the production level in 2010. What are the environmental implications of meeting this demand, and what is the preferred pathway? We addressed these questions by using a nexus approach, to examine the interdependencies of increasing milk consumption in China by 2050 and its global impacts, under different scenarios of domestic milk production and importation. Meeting China's milk demand in a business as usual scenario will increase global dairy-related (China and the leading milk exporting regions) greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 35% (from 565 to 764 Tg CO_2eq ) and land use for dairy feed production by 32% (from 84 to 111 million ha) compared to 2010, while reactive nitrogen losses from the dairy sector will increase by 48% (from 3.6 to 5.4 Tg nitrogen). Producing all additional milk in China with current technology will greatly increase animal feed import; from 1.9 to 8.5 Tg for concentrates and from 1.0 to 6.2 Tg for forage (alfalfa). In addition, it will increase domestic dairy related GHG emissions by 2.2 times compared to 2010 levels. Importing the extra milk will transfer the environmental burden from China to milk exporting countries; current dairy exporting countries may be unable to produce all additional milk due to physical limitations or environmental preferences/legislation. For example, the farmland area for cattle-feed production in New Zealand would have to increase by more than 57% (1.3 million ha) and that in Europe by more than 39% (15 million ha), while GHG emissions and nitrogen losses would increase roughly proportionally with the increase of farmland in both regions. We propose that a more sustainable dairy future will rely on high milk demanding regions (such as China) improving their domestic milk and feed production efficiencies up to the level of leading milk producing countries. This will decrease the global dairy related GHG emissions and land use by 12% (90 Tg CO_2eq reduction) and 30% (34 million ha land reduction) compared to the business as usual scenario, respectively. However, this still represents an increase in total GHG emissions of 19% whereas land use will decrease by 8% when compared with 2010 levels, respectively.

Reactive nitrogen losses from China's food system for the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs)

Food production in China has been changing fast as a result of socio-economic development. This resulted in an increased use of nitrogen (N) in food production, and also to increased reactive nitrogen (Nr) losses to the environment, causing nitrogen pollution. Our study is the first to quantify future Nr losses from China's food system for the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs). We show that Nr losses differ largely among SSPs. We first qualitatively described the five SSP storylines for China with a focus on food production and consumption. Next, we interpreted these SSP scenarios quantitatively for 2030 and 2050, using the NUFER (NUtrient Flows in Food chains, Environment and Resources use) model to project the Nr losses from China's food system. The results indicate that Nr losses from future food system in China are relatively low for SSP1 and SSP2, and relatively high for SSP3 and SSP4. In SSP5 Nr losses from China's food system are projected to be slightly lower than the level of today.

Nutrient losses and greenhouse gas emissions from dairy production in China: Lessons learned from historical changes and regional differences

The dairy industry in China was rapidly expanded and intensified from 1980 to 2010, engendering potential long-term impacts on the environment and natural resources. However, impacts of dairy intensification on nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) losses and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions were unknown. This study was undertaken to examine these relations using the NUtrient flows in Food chains, Environment and Resources use (NUFER)-dairy model. Results showed that milk yield increased by 64% from 1980 to 2010 on average, and the use of concentrate feeds increased by 57% associated with a shift of production from traditional and grassland systems to collective and industrialized systems. At herd level, the N use efficiency (NUE; conversion of N inputs to products) doubled from 7 to 15%, and the P use efficiency (PUE) increased from 10 to 17%, primarily resulting from increased milk yield per cow. In contrast, at the system level, NUE showed a small increase (from 10 to 15%, associated with reduced gaseous losses) while PUE decreased from 46 to 30% due to a large increase in manure discharges. This is attributed to decoupling of feed and dairy production, as the proportion of manure N and P recycled to cropland decreased by 52% and 54%, respectively. Despite this, the average total N loss decreased from 63 to 48gkg^-1 milk, and the average GHG emissions from 1.7 to 1.1kgCO₂equivalentkg^-1 milk associated with increased per-cow productivity. However, average P loss increased from 1.4 to 2.8gPkg^-1 milk due to higher discharge rate to wastewater and landfill in collective and industrialized systems. Anyhow, average N and P losses exceeded levels in developed countries. There were large regional variations in nutrient use efficiency, nutrient losses and GHG emissions in China, largely determined by the dairy production structure. Average N losses and GHG emissions per unit of milk showed a negative correlation with production intensification based on the proportion of farms in collective or industrialized systems, while average P losses per unit of milk in different regions showed a positive relationship with intensification. In conclusion, dairy intensification was associated with increased milk yield per cow and reduced average N losses and GHG emissions per unit of milk, but reduced system level PUE and manure recycling contributed to high levels of total N and P losses. Dairy production in China is likely to continue to be intensified as a result of rising milk demand, and significant improvements must be made in manure management to control N and P losses and GHG emissions.

Nitrogen, Phosphorus, and Potassium Flows through the Manure Management Chain in China

The largest livestock production and greatest fertilizer use in the world occurs in China. However, quantification of the nutrient flows through the manure management chain and their interactions with management-related measures is lacking. Herein, we present a detailed analysis of the nutrient flows and losses in the "feed intake-excretion-housing-storage-treatment-application" manure chain, while considering differences among livestock production systems. We estimated the environmental loss from the manure chain in 2010 to be up to 78% of the excreted nitrogen and over 50% of the excreted phosphorus and potassium. The greatest losses occurred from housing and storage stages through NH₃ emissions (39% of total nitrogen losses) and direct discharge of manure into water bodies or landfill (30-73% of total nutrient losses). There are large differences among animal production systems, where the landless system has the lowest manure recycling. Scenario analyses for the year 2020 suggest that significant reductions of fertilizer use (27-100%) and nutrient losses (27-56%) can be achieved through a combination of prohibiting manure discharge, improving manure collection and storages infrastructures, and improving manure application to cropland. We recommend that current policies and subsidies targeted at the fertilizer industry should shift to reduce the costs of manure storage, transport, and application.

The MARINA model (Model to Assess River Inputs of Nutrients to seAs): Model description and results for China

Chinese agriculture has been developing fast towards industrial food production systems that discharge nutrient-rich wastewater into rivers. As a result, nutrient export by rivers has been increasing, resulting in coastal water pollution. We developed a Model to Assess River Inputs of Nutrients to seAs (MARINA) for China. The MARINA Nutrient Model quantifies river export of nutrients by source at the sub-basin scale as a function of human activities on land. MARINA is a downscaled version for China of the Global NEWS-2 (Nutrient Export from WaterSheds) model with an improved approach for nutrient losses from animal production and population. We use the model to quantify dissolved inorganic and organic nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) export by six large rivers draining into the Bohai Gulf (Yellow, Hai, Liao), Yellow Sea (Yangtze, Huai) and South China Sea (Pearl) in 1970, 2000 and 2050. We addressed uncertainties in the MARINA Nutrient model. Between 1970 and 2000 river export of dissolved N and P increased by a factor of 2-8 depending on sea and nutrient form. Thus, the risk for coastal eutrophication increased. Direct losses of manure to rivers contribute to 60-78% of nutrient inputs to the Bohai Gulf and 20-74% of nutrient inputs to the other seas in 2000. Sewage is an important source of dissolved inorganic P, and synthetic fertilizers of dissolved inorganic N. Over half of the nutrients exported by the Yangtze and Pearl rivers originated from human activities in downstream and middlestream sub-basins. The Yellow River exported up to 70% of dissolved inorganic N and P from downstream sub-basins and of dissolved organic N and P from middlestream sub-basins. Rivers draining into the Bohai Gulf are drier, and thus transport fewer nutrients. For the future we calculate further increases in river export of nutrients. The MARINA Nutrient model quantifies the main sources of coastal water pollution for sub-basins. This information can contribute to formulation of effective management options to reduce nutrient pollution of Chinese seas in the future.

Changes in pig production in China and their effects on nitrogen and phosphorus use and losses

China's pig production has increased manifold in the past 50 years, and this has greatly affected the nitrogen and phosphorus use and losses in the pig production sector. However, the magnitude of these changes are not well-known. Here, we provide an in-depth account of the changes in pig production--N and P use and total N and P losses in the whole pig production chain during the period 1960-2010--through simulation modeling and using data from national statistics and farm surveys. For the period of 2010-2030, we explored possible effects of technological and managerial measures aimed at improving the performances of pig production via scenario analysis. We used and further developed the NUtrient flows in Food chains, Environment and Resources use (NUFER) model to calculate the feed requirement and consumption, and N and P losses in different pig production systems for all the years. Between 1960 and 2010, pig production has largely shifted from the so-called backyard system to landless systems. The N use efficiencies at fattener level increased from 18 to 28%, due to the increased animal productivity. However, the N use efficiencies at the whole-system level decreased from 46 to 11% during this period, mainly due to the increase of landless pig farms, which rely on imported feed and have no land-base for manure disposal. The total N and P losses were 5289 and 829 Gg in 2010, which is 30 and 95 times higher than in 1960. In the business as usual scenario, the total N and P losses were projected to increase by 25 and 55% between 2010 and 2030, respectively. Analyses of other scenarios indicate that packages of technological and managerial measures can decrease total N and P losses by 64 and 95%, respectively. Such improvements require major transition in the pig production sector, notably, in manure management, herd management, and feeding practices.

Greenhouse gas emissions from the enteric fermentation and manure storage of dairy and beef cattle in China during 1961-2010

Due to the expanding dairy and beef population in China and their contribution to global CH4 and N2O budgets, a framework considering changes in feed, manure management and herd structure was established to indicate the trends of CH4 and N2O emissions from the enteric formation and manure storage in China׳s beef and dairy production and the underlying driving forces during the period 1961-2010. From 1961 to 2010, annual CH4 and N2O emissions from beef cattle in China increased from 2.18Mt to 5.86Mt and from 7.93kt-29.56kt, respectively, while those from dairy cattle increased from 0.023 to 1.09Mt and 0.12 to 7.90kt, respectively. These increases were attributed to the combined changes in cattle population and management practices in feeds and manure storage. Improvement in cattle genetics during the period increased the bodyweight, required dry matter intake and gross energy and thus resulted in increased enteric CH4 EFs for each category of beef and dairy cattle as well as the overall enteric EFs (i.e., Tier 1 in IPCC). However, for beef cattle, such an impact on the overall enteric EFs was largely offset by the herd structure transition from draft animal-oriented to meat animal-oriented during 1961-2010. Although the CO2-eq of CH4 and N2O from manure storage was less than the enteric emissions during 1961-2010 in China, it tended to increase both in beef and dairy cattle, which was mainly driven by the changes in manure management practices.

Environmental assessment of management options for nutrient flows in the food chain in China

The nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) costs of food production have increased greatly in China during the last 30 years, leading to eutrophication of surface waters, nitrate leaching to groundwater, and greenhouse gas emissions. Here, we present the results of scenario analyses in which possible changes in food production-consumption in China for the year 2030 were explored. Changes in food chain structure, improvements in technology and management, and combinations of these on food supply and environmental quality were analyzed with the NUFER model. In the business as usual scenario, N and P fertilizer consumption in 2030 will be driven by population growth and diet changes and will both increase by 25%. N and P losses will increase by 44 and 73%, respectively, relative to the reference year 2005. Scenarios with increased imports of animal products and feed instead of domestic production, and with changes in the human diet, indicate reductions in fertilizer consumption and N and P losses relative to the business as usual scenario. Implementation of a package of integrated nutrient management measures may roughly nullify the increases in losses in the business as usual scenario and may greatly increase the efficiency of N and P throughout the whole food chain.

An analysis of developments and challenges in nutrient management in china

During the past 50 years, China has successfully realized food self-sufficiency for its rapidly growing population. Currently, it feeds 22% of the global population with 9% of the global area of arable land. However, these achievements were made at high external resource use and environmental costs. The challenge facing China is to further increase food production while drastically decreasing the environmental costs of food production. Here we review the major developments in nutrient management in China over the last 50 years. We briefly analyze the current organizational structure of the "advisory system" in agriculture, the developments in nutrient management for crop production, and the developments in nutrient management in animal production. We then discuss the nutrient management challenges for the next decades, considering nutrient management in the whole chain of crop production-animal production-food processing-food consumption by households. We argue that more coherent national policies and institutional structures are required for research extension education to be able to address the immense challenges ahead. Key actions include nutrient management in the whole food chain concomitant with a shift in objectives from food security only to food security, resource use efficiency, and environmental sustainability; improved animal waste management based on coupled animal production and crop production systems; and much greater emphasis on technology transfer from science to practice through education, training, demonstration, and extension services.

Advances and challenges for nutrient management in china in the 21st century

Managing agricultural nutrients to provide a safe and secure food supply while protecting the environment remains one of the great challenges for the 21st century. The fourth International Nutrient Management Symposium (INMS), held in 2011 at the University of Delaware, addressed these issues via presentations, panel sessions, and field tours focused on latest technologies and policies available to increase nutrient use efficiency. Participants from the United States, Europe, Canada, and China discussed global trends and challenges, balancing food security and the environment in countries with struggling and emerging economics, nutrient management and transport at the catchment scale, new technologies for managing fertilizer and manure nutrients, and adaptive nutrient management practices for farm to watershed scales. A particular area of interest at the fourth INMS was nutrient management progress and challenges in China over the past 40 years. China's food security challenges and rapidly growing economy have led to major advances in agricultural production systems but also created severe nutrient pollution problems. This special collection of papers from the fourth INMS gives an overview of the remarkable progress China has made in nutrient management and highlights major challenges and changes in agri-environmental policies and practices needed today. Lessons learned in China are of value to both developing and developed countries facing the common task of providing adequate food for an expanding world population, while protecting air and water quality and restoring damaged ecosystems.