Longitudinal Change in Fasting Blood Glucose and Myocardial Infarction Risk in a Population Without Diabetes

An early accumulation of serum uric acid confers more risk of heart failure: a 10-year prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

Evidence on the longitudinal association of serum uric acid (SUA) with the risk of heart failure (HF) was limited and controversial. This study aimed to investigate the associations of cumulative SUA (cumSUA), incorporating its time course of accumulation, with the risk of HF.

METHODS AND RESULTS

This prospective study enrolled 54 606 participants from the Kailuan study. The magnitude of SUA accumulation was expressed as cumSUA, exposure duration, and cumulative burden from baseline to the third survey, with cumSUA, calculated by multiplying mean values between consecutive examinations by time intervals between visits, as the primary exposure.During a median follow-up of 10 years, 1260 cases of incident HF occurred. A higher risk of HF was observed in participants with the highest vs. the lowest quartile of cumSUA [adjusted hazard ratio (aHR), 1.54; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.29-1.84], 6-year vs. 0-year exposure duration (aHR, 1.87; 95% CI, 1.43-2.45), cumulative burden >0 vs. = 0 (aHR, 1.55; 95 CI, 1.29-1.86), and those with a negative vs. positive SUA slope (aHR, 1.12; 95% CI, 1.02-1.25). When cumSUA was incorporated with its time course, those with cumSUA ≥median and a negative SUA slope had the highest risk of HF (aHR, 1.55; 95% CI, 1.29-1.86).

CONCLUSIONS

Incident HF risk was associated with the magnitude and time course of cumSUA accumulation. Early accumulation resulted in a greater risk of HF compared with later accumulation, indicating the importance of optimal SUA control earlier in life.

Life's Essential 8 and mortality among adults with early-onset cardiovascular diseases : A prospective community-based study

BACKGROUND

Information regarding the association between cardiovascular health (CVH) as assessed using Life's Essential 8 (LE8) approach and all-cause mortality in adults with early-onset cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) is limited.

OBJECTIVE

In this study, we aimed to assess the association between CVH constructed by the LE8 metrics and all-cause mortality in Chinese individuals with early-onset CVDs, including myocardial infarction, heart failure, atrial fibrillation, ischemic stroke, and hemorrhagic stroke as well as in those who had undergone coronary artery bypass surgery or coronary intervention.

METHODS

Data of 3454 participants who were first diagnosed with early-onset CVDs (men aged < 55 years and women aged < 65 years with CVDs) in the Kailuan study from 1 January 2006 to 31 December 2020 were analyzed. Assessment of CVH (score ranging from 0 to 100 points) was made using the LE8 metrics (including diet, physical activity, nicotine exposure, sleep duration, body mass index [BMI], lipid, blood glucose, and blood pressure). All-cause mortality information was collected from provincial vital statistics offices. Cox proportional hazard regression models and restricted cubic splines were utilized to examine associations between the CVH scores and all-cause mortality in adults with early-onset CVDs.

RESULTS

During a mean follow-up of 6.78 years (interquartile range [IQR]: 3.36-10.5 years), 460 deaths were documented. After controlling for demographic variables, lifestyles, and major clinical factors, higher CVH scores were associated with lower risks of all-cause mortality among participants with early-onset CVDs. The corresponding hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were 0.64 (0.49, 0.82) comparing two extreme quartiles of CVH scores and 0.85 (0.77, 0.82) for each 10-point increment in CVH score (p trend = 0.001). Specifically, significant inverse associations were observed among participants with hemorrhagic stroke (HR Q4 vs. Q1 = 0.46, 0.23-0.93) and heart disease (HR Q4 vs. Q1 = 0.59, 0.41-0.87).

CONCLUSION

Our findings supported the beneficial role of higher CVH scores in all-cause mortality among adults with early-onset CVD.

Modifiable factors and 10-year and lifetime cardiovascular disease risk in adults with new-onset hypertension: insights from the Kailuan cohort

BACKGROUND

Preventing cardiovascular disease (CVD) in adults with hypertension is essential, but it remains uncertain whether optimizing modifiable factors can eliminate the excess CVD risk associated with new-onset hypertension.

METHODS

In this prospective cohort study, 29,597 adults with new-onset hypertension and no prior CVD (from 2006-2016 surveys) were each matched by age and sex to a normotensive control. Eight modifiable factors were assessed using the American Heart Association's Life's Essential 8 algorithm. We followed participants for incident CVD until December 2020, estimating 10-year and lifetime (age 25-95) CVD risks using the Fine-Gray competing risks model.

RESULTS

Over a median follow-up of 9.81 years, adults with new-onset hypertension had higher 10-year (8.97% vs. 6.31%) and lifetime CVD risks (45.55% vs. 34.98%) compared to normotensive controls. After adjusting for age, sex, and other unmodifiable factors, each additional favorable factor was associated with a stepwise reduction in CVD risk (P-trend < 0.05). Hypertensive participants with four or more favorable factors had a 17% lower 10-year CVD risk (HR 0.83; 95% CI 0.72-0.97) and a similar lifetime CVD risk (HR 0.90; 95% CI 0.78-1.05) compared to normotensive controls. Notably, the protective effect was weaker among those with early-onset (before age 45) hypertension than those with later-onset (age ≥ 60) hypertension (P-interaction < 0.05).

CONCLUSIONS

In adults with new-onset hypertension, maintaining four or more modifiable factors at favorable levels was associated with a CVD risk comparable to that of normotensive individuals. However, young hypertensive adults may require more aggressive interventions to mitigate CVD risk.

Association between Life's Essential 8 and risk of heart failure: findings from the Kailuan study

AIMS

The impact of Life's Essential 8 (LE8) on heart failure (HF) remains poorly understood. We examined the associations between three forms of LE8 measurements and HF.

METHODS AND RESULTS

A total of 35 896 participants without a prior history of HF from the Kailuan community were included. The LE8 status was measured in 2014. A latent mixture model was employed to identify the trajectories of LE8 during 2006 to 2014. The LE8 annual change rate was defined as the slope of the linear regression equation fitted by five LE8 measurements. Cox proportional hazards models were used to assess the risk of HF associated with LE8, after adjusting for potential confounding variables. The predictive performance was quantified and compared using the C-index. Five distinct LE8 trajectories were identified. 461 HF events documented during follow-up. The LE8 trajectories presenting an upward trend in LE8 were associated with a reduced risk of HF, even when the initial LE8 level was low [HR (95% confidence interval) for moderate-increasing vs. moderate-decreasing trajectory was 0.43 (0.34, 0.55)]. The LE8 status was inversely associated with HF risk. A higher LE8 annual increase was associated with a lower risk of HF. The LE8 trajectory was more accurate in predicting the risk of HF compared with LE8 status.

CONCLUSION

LE8 was inversely associated with HF risk. Individuals with initially low LE8 levels experienced a reversal in HF risk upon improvement. Both LE8 trajectories and status are practicable in identifying individuals at high risk of HF, LE8 trajectories may provide added prognostic information.

Association of Cumulative Exposure to Metabolic Score for Visceral Fat With the Risk of Cardiovascular Disease and All-Cause Mortality: A Prospective Cohort Study

BACKGROUND

Previous studies have demonstrated that metabolic score for visceral fat (METS-VF), a novel surrogate indicator assessing visceral fat, was associated with the risk of hypertension, diabetes mellitus, cardiovascular disease (CVD) and mortality, predicting the risks based on a single METS-VF measurement can increase limitations of the study. Few studies have investigated the association between cumulative exposure to METS-VF and risk of CVD and all-cause mortality. We aimed to examine the association of cumulative METS-VF with risk for CVD and all-cause mortality.

METHODS

All participants in the study were from the Kailuan Study, which is a large, prospective cohort study, and began in 2006 years. Cumulative METS-VF was calculated by data from 2006 survey to 2010 survey and defined as the mean METS-VF for each pair of consecutive surveys multiplied by the time intervals between these two consecutive surveys. The optimal cut-off value for time-averaged cumulative METS-VF associated with CVD was determined using a survival-time method to calculate maximally selected rank statistics and was used to assess exposure of high METS-VF. A multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression model was used to assess the risk of CVD and all-cause mortality during 2010-2022 years (hazard ratio [HR] and 95% confidence interval [95% CI]).

RESULTS

We included 41 756 participants (mean age, [52.72 ± 11.64] years, 78.53% males and 21.47% females). All participants were divided into four groups: Q1 (reference group), Q2, Q3 and Q4 according to the quartiles of cumulative METS-VF, and exposure duration of high METS-VF was quantified as 0, 2, 4, and 6 years. During the median follow-up of 12.01 years, 4008 (9.60%) CVD events and 3944 all-cause mortality events occurred. After adjusting for potential covariates, compared to participants in Q1 group, the HRs of incident CVD and all-cause mortality were 1.55 (95% CI, 1.38-1.74) and 1.59 (95% CI, 1.40-1.81) for those in Q2 group, 2.13 (95% CI, 1.91-2.38) and 2.67 (95% CI 2.37-3.01) for those in Q3 group, 2.78 (95% CI, 2.49-3.17) and 4.90 (95% CI 4.36-5.50) for those in Q4 group. The HRs for CVD and all-cause mortality were increased with exposure duration of high METS-VF increasing. The result of ROC curve analysis showed that cumulative METS-VF had the highest predictive for CVD among 4 indexes including cumulative METS-VF, cumulative waist circumference, cumulative body mass index and cumulative WHtR.

CONCLUSIONS

The high cumulative METS-VF was associated with an increased risk of CVD and mortality, and this association was stronger as exposure to high METS-VF was prolonged, emphasizing the importance of striving to control the METS-VF.

Time in target range for systolic blood pressure and glucose with cardiovascular disease and all-cause mortality risks

Evidence on the combined effect of time in the target range (TTR) for systolic blood pressure (SBP) and fasting blood glucose (FBG) in real-world settings was scarce. We aimed to evaluate the separate and combined effects of SBP TTR and FBG TTR on cardiovascular disease (CVD) and all-cause mortality risks among participants with comorbidity of hypertension and diabetes. The data was derived from the Kailuan study. The target ranges for SBP and FBG were set as 110-140 mmHg and 3.9-7.0 mmol/L, and linear interpolation to calculate TTR. Cox proportional hazard regression models were used to estimate the separate and combined effects of SBP TTR and FBG TTR on CVD and all-cause mortality risks. We included 11,899 participants with hypertension and diabetes comorbidity whose mean age was 54.52 ± 10.36 years, and 9,873 (83.00%) were male. After a follow-up of 6.67 years, 1,381 cases of CVD and 2,148 cases of all-cause mortality were documented. In the fully adjusted model, compared with the participants with both SBP TTR and FBG TTR lower than 25%, participants with both greater SBP TTR and FBG TTR had the lowest risks of CVD (HR: 0.53; 95%CI: 0.57-0.78) and mortality (HR: 0.59; 95%CI: 0.47-0.74). Per 1 SD increase in SBP TTR was associated with a 14% reduction in CVD risk (HR, 0.86; 95% CI, 0.80-0.92) and a 10% reduction in mortality risk (HR, 0.90; 95% CI, 0.85-0.95), all significant results were maintained in the FBG TTR analyses. Both higher SBP TTR and FBG TTR were associated with lower risks of CVD and all-cause mortality in participants with comorbidity of hypertension and diabetes. Simultaneous control of SBP and FBG within the target ranges is a beneficial strategy for CVD prevention.

Traditional versus intensive blood glucose control: long-term target range duration and cardiovascular disease risk and all-cause mortality - a real-world cohort study

Objective

For a long time, the dispute about whether improved glycemic control can bring significant benefits has remained unresolved. We aimed to investigate the association of time spent in different fasting glucose target ranges with cardiovascular risk and all-cause mortality in a population with type 2 diabetes (T2DM).

Method

A total of 3460 T2DM patients in the Kailuan cohort were included in this study. The Time in Target Range (TITRE) was calculated as the proportion of time that fasting blood glucose (FBG) was within the usual glycemic control range and the intensive glycemic control range between 2006 and 2016. The Cox proportional hazards regression model analyzed the relationship between TITRE, defined by different glucose ranges, and cardiovascular disease and all-cause mortality.

Results

During a median follow-up of 4.23 years, a total of 360 CVDs and 238 deaths were recorded. After correcting for traditional risk factors, we observed that in the conventional blood glucose control group, each increase of 1 standard deviation in TITRE was associated with a 23% (HR, 0.77; 95%CI, 0.68-0.87) reduction in CVD risk and a 20% reduction in all-cause mortality (HR, 0.80; 95%CI, 0.69-0.92). Similar results were also observed in the intensified blood glucose control group. In the conventional blood glucose control group, participants with TITRE of 50% or more had an absolute incidence rate of CVD of 16.77%, whereas in the intensified blood glucose control group, participants with TITRE of 50% or more had an absolute incidence rate of CVD of 11.82%.

Conclusions

In patients with type 2 diabetes, achieving near-normal blood glucose levels appears to significantly reduce the risk of diabetes-related cardiovascular outcomes.

Systolic Blood Pressure Time in Target Range and Cardiovascular Disease and Premature Death

Background

Previous research has suggested that time-in-target range (TTR) for systolic blood pressure (SBP) was associated with adverse cardiovascular events, but real-world data studies remain limited.

Objectives

The purpose of this study was to estimate the SBP-TTR associated with cardiovascular disease (CVD) and premature death among the employed individuals with hypertension.

Methods

This study included 9,552 participants from the workplace hypertension management program initiated by the Kailuan Study in 2009. TTR was calculated using linear interpolation with the target range of SBP between 120 and 140 mm Hg. Multivariable Cox regression was used to evaluate the HR and CI for the association among SBP-TTR and CVD, premature CVD, and premature death.

Results

Participants with higher TTR exhibited a reduced number of cardiovascular risk factors. For a 1-SD increment in SBP-TTR, the HR was 0.81 (95% CI: 0.74-0.88) for CVD, 0.76 (95% CI: 0.67-0.86) for premature CVD, and 0.83 (95% CI: 0.74-0.92) for premature death. Furthermore, SBP-TTR was associated with a lower risk of ischemic stroke (HR: 0.81; 95% CI: 0.74-0.90) and hemorrhagic stroke (HR: 0.72; 95% CI: 0.56-0.93), but not myocardial infarction (HR: 0.84; 95% CI: 0.68-1.03). Results were similar when the target range of SBP was redefined as 110 to 130 mm Hg, but there was no significant association between SBP-TTR and hemorrhagic stroke (HR: 0.84; 95% CI: 0.64-1.10).

Conclusions

SBP-TTR was associated with a decreased risk of CVD, premature CVD, and premature death among the employed individuals.

Early onset of hyperuricemia is associated with the risk of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease across life course

BACKGROUND AND AIM

Hyperuricemia is associated with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD), whereas whether the association differed by hyperuricemia onset age remained unclear. This study sought to investigate the associations of hyperuricemia onset age with the risk of incident NAFLD across adulthood.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Based on Kailuan prospective cohort, our analysis comprised 3318 new-onset hyperuricemia cases from 2006 to 2015 and 3318 age- and sex-matched controls who were randomly selected from the general population. The risk of NAFLD across the onset age groups (<45, 45-54, 55-64, and ≥65 years) were compared using multivariable-adjusted Cox regression models. During a median follow-up of 6.78 years, 744 (22.42%) hyperuricemia participants and 586 (17.66%) normouricemia participants were diagnosed with incident NAFLD. After adjusted for potential confounders, the risk of NAFLD was gradually attenuated with each decade increase in hyperuricemia onset age. The adjusted hazard ratio (95% confidence interval) was 1.62 (1.33-1.97) for hyperuricemia onset age <45 years, 1.26 (1.01-1.57) for age of 45-54 years, 1.24 (1.00-1.59) for age of 55-64 years, and 1.19 (0.90-1.71) for age ≥65 years, respectively. The trend remained robust among the multiple sensitivity analyses.

CONCLUSIONS

The relative risk of incident NAFLD differed across hyperuricemia onset age-group, and the association was more evident in those with a younger age of hyperuricemia onset, highlighting the importance of performing early strategies on the prevention of NAFLD.

Associations between cardiac arrhythmias and cardiovascular disease incidence and all-cause mortality: the Kailuan study

AIMS

Cardiac arrhythmia is a rising public health issue. The aim of this study was to determine the associations of atrial fibrillation (AF) and heart block with cardiovascular disease (CVD) incidence and all-cause mortality.

METHODS AND RESULTS

We included 141,362 participants (mean age [49.3], 80.9% men) from the Kailuan study. Arrhythmias were diagnosed through a 12-lead electrocardiograph (ECG). Mortality and CVD events were ascertained through multiple sources, including a municipal social insurance institution, hospital records, death certificates, and regular active follow-ups. During a median follow-up of 12.5 years, 18,301 total deaths and 13,208 cases of CVD were documented. The multivariable-adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) comparing participants with AF to those without arrhythmia were 1.76 (1.61-1.93) for all-cause mortality, 2.11 (1.86-2.39) for CVD, 3.99 (3.33-4.79) for heart failure, and 1.56 (1.30-1.90) for stroke. Further, comparing participants with heart block to those without arrhythmia, the multivariable-adjusted HRs (95% CIs) were 1.31 (1.24-1.38) for all-cause mortality, 1.26 (1.18-1.35) for CVD, 1.40 (1.23-1.59) for heart failure, and 1.25 (1.15-1.37) for stroke. Additionally, there were generally stronger associations for AF and heart block with all-cause mortality and CVD in younger participants compared with their older counterparts (Ps-interaction ≤ 0.02) and a stronger association between AF and CVD in women compared with men (Ps-interaction ≤ 0.006).

CONCLUSION

AF and heart block were associated with a higher risk of subsequent adverse CVD events and mortality. Our findings highlight the importance of strategies for preventing cardiac arrhythmias to reduce the risk of CVD and mortality.

Life's Essential 8 Trajectories and Risk of Stroke: A Prospective Cohort Study

BACKGROUND

Evidence is lacking regarding long-term patterns of change in Life's Essential 8 (LE8) and their association with the risk of stroke. We aim to evaluate LE8 trajectories and examine their association with the risk of stroke in China.

METHODS

This study, conducted in a workplace setting, recruited 26 719 participants (average age, 46.02±11.27 years and a male population of 73.73%) who had no history of stroke and consecutively participated in 6 surveys from 2006 to 2016. Repeated LE8 measurements were determined by taking the unweighted average of the 8 component scores ranging from 0 to 100. People with higher scores had better overall cardiovascular health. By examining the medical records of the participants, stroke cases were identified for the period from 2016 to 2020. A latent mixture model was applied to classify the trajectory clusters of LE8 from 2006 to 2016, and Cox proportional hazard models were used to analyze the data.

RESULTS

Five LE8 trajectories were detected between 2006 and 2016. Four hundred ninety-eight incident strokes including 55 (11.04%) hemorrhagic and 458 (91.97%) ischemic strokes were documented. After adjusting for covariates, the hazard ratios and 95% CIs for the association between stable-low, moderate-increasing, moderate-stable, and high-stable trajectories and incident stroke, compared with the moderate-decreasing trajectory, were 1.42 (1.11-1.84), 0.73 (0.56-0.96), 0.49 (0.39-0.62), and 0.19 (0.11-0.32), respectively. Individuals with high LE8 status (LE8≥80) exhibited a significantly reduced risk of stroke compared with those with low one (LE8≤49; P-trend <0.001). A faster annual growth in LE8 was related to a lower risk of stroke.

CONCLUSIONS

Maintaining high LE8 over an extended period and high baseline LE8 status were related to a decreased risk of stroke. Despite the initial low level of LE8, improvement in LE8 attenuates or even reverses the risk of stroke.

Association of hyperuricemia with risk of cardiovascular disease according to the number of risk factors within target range

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Risk factor modification may decrease the risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD). Whether risk factor modification can mitigate the effect of hyperuricemia on CVD is unclear. This study aimed to investigate the risk of CVD among individuals with hyperuricemia, according to risk factors on target, compared with controls without hyperuricemia.

METHODS AND RESULTS

This prospective study included 91,722 participants free of CVD at baseline (2006-2007) of the Kailuan study. Individuals with hyperuricemia were categorized according to the number of seven selected risk factors within the guideline-recommended target range (nonsmoking, physical activity, healthy diet, guideline-recommended levels of body mass index, blood pressure, fasting blood glucose, and total cholesterol). During a median follow-up of 13.00 years, 671 out of 6740 individuals (9.96%) with hyperuricemia and 6301 out of 84,982 control subjects (7.41%) had incident CVD. Compared with control subjects without hyperuricemia, individuals with hyperuricemia who had 4 or 5 to 7 risk factors on target had no significant excess CVD risk, the hazard ratio (HR) (95% confidence internal [CI]) was 0.93 (0.79-1.10) and 0.88 (0.71-1.10), respectively. Among individuals with hyperuricemia, excess CVD risk decreased stepwise for a higher number of risk factors on target, the HR of CVD associated with per additional risk factor within target range was 0.82 (95% CI, 0.77-0.87). Similar results were yielded for CVD subtypes.

CONCLUSIONS

Among individuals with hyperuricemia, excess CVD risk decreased stepwise for a higher number of risk factors within target.

Association of socioeconomic status and life's essential 8 with cardiovascular diseases and all-cause mortality in north China: Kailuan study

BACKGROUND

We aimed to explore the association of socioeconomic status (SES) and life's essential 8 (LE8) with cardiovascular disease (CVD) and all-cause mortality in north China.

METHODS

A total of 91,365 adults from the Kailuan study were included in this study. Comprehensive individual SES, mainly including monthly household income, education, Occupation position, and community environment, was confirmed by latent class analysis. Furthermore, the mediation and combination effects of SES and LE8 on CVD and all-cause mortality were further assessed. The Cox regression model was conducted to estimate HRs and 95% CI.

RESULTS

During about 13 years of follow-up, 7,646 cardiovascular events and 11,749 deaths were recorded. Relative to the high SES, there were decreased risks of CVD [HR (95% CI): 1.57(1.43-1.72)] and high all-cause death [HR (95% CI): 1.43(1.31-1.53)] in the low SES. The associations between SES and CVD [Mediation % (95% CI): 22.3 (16.4-30.4)] and mortality [Mediation % (95% CI): 10.1 (7.1-14.0)] were partially mediated by LE8 when comparing medium SES to high SES. Meanwhile, relative to high LE8, the elevated risk of death [HR (95% CI): 1.72(1.56-1.89)], and incident CVD [HR (95% CI): 3.34(2.91-3.83)] were detected in low LE8. Compared to participants who had the high SES and LE8, participants who had both the low SES and LE8 further increased the risk of CVD [HR (95% CI): 7.76(5.21-11.55)] and all-cause mortality [HR (95% CI): 2.80(2.19-3.58)].

CONCLUSION

Low SES was related to a higher risk of CVD and mortality in low- and middle-income countries, which was partially mediated by LE8.

Different levels of physical activity and risk of developing type 2 diabetes among adults with prediabetes: a population-based cohort study

OBJECTIVES

This study aimed to evaluate the association between different levels of physical activity and risk of developing type 2 diabetes (T2D) mellitus among adults with prediabetes in Chinese population.

METHODS

This prospective population-based cohort study included 12,424 participants (mean [SD] age, 52.8 [16.8] years; 82.2% men) with prediabetes at 2014 survey of the Kailuan study. Physical activity information was collected through the International Physical Activity Questionnaire-Short Form and categorized by metabolic equivalent (MET) of task as low, moderate, and high. Cox regression models were built to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for associations between physical activity levels and incident T2D.

RESULTS

During a median follow-up of 3.6 years, 2,207 (17.8%) participants developed T2D. The incident rate of T2D were 55.83/1000, 35.14/1000, and 39.61/1000 person-years in the low, moderate, and high physical activity level group, respectively. Both moderate (HR 0.57, 95% CI 0.49 to 0.67) and high (HR 0.76, 95% CI 0.66 to 0.89) physical activity levels were associated with lower risks of developing T2D compared to low physical activity level (P for trend < 0.001). The association between high physical activity level and T2D was primarily observed in participants without metabolic syndrome (P for interaction < 0.001). Moreover, participants with moderate or high levels of physical activity had significantly decreased fasting blood glucose levels during follow-up when compared to those with low level (P group*time < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

This study suggested that individuals with prediabetes might benefit from moderate and high levels of physical activity.

10-year trajectory of Life's Essential 8 and incident hypertension: a community-based cohort study

BACKGROUND

The health effects of Life's Essential 8 (LE8) on chronic diseases have been disclosed, but its association with hypertension remains unknown. The current study aimed to explore the potential link between 10-year LE8 trajectory and the incidence of hypertension.

METHODS

LE8 was constructed from four behaviors and four metabolic factors, ranging from 0 to 100. Latent mixture models were used to identify trajectories of LE8 scores during 2006 to 2016. Incident hypertension was diagnosed based on self-reported clinical diagnoses and physical examinations from 2016 to 2020. Cox models were employed to assess the association of LE8 trajectories with hypertension. In addition to incorporating the mean hs-CRP levels from 2006 to 2016, age, sex, monthly income, educational level, and occupation at recruitment were adjusted for as confounding factors.

RESULTS

7500 participants aged 40.28 ± 10.35 years were included in the study, of whom 2907 (38.76%) were women. Five LE8 trajectory patterns were identified. After around four-year follow-up, 667 hypertension events were observed. Compared to the Low-Stable trajectory, the hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals for the Moderate-Increasing, Moderate-Decreasing, Moderate-Stable, and High-Stable trajectories were 0.51 (0.40, 0.65), 0.81 (0.64, 1.02), 0.45 (0.36, 0.58), 0.23 (0.16, 0.33), respectively. The risk of incident hypertension decreased as participants improved their LE8 status. The robustness of the primary results was confirmed through several sensitivity analyses.

CONCLUSIONS

LE8 trajectories were associated with the incident hypertension. People who improved their LE8 scores over time experienced a decreased risk of hypertension, even if they started with lower LE8 scores initially.

Control for multiple risk factors and incident heart failure and mortality in patients with diabetes mellitus: Insights from the Kailuan cohort study

BACKGROUND

This study evaluated the relationship between controlling multiple risk factors and diabetes-related heart failure and all-cause mortality, and the extent to which the excess risk can be reduced.

METHODS

17,676 patients with diabetes and 69,493 matched non-diabetic control subjects were included in the Kailuan study, with a median follow-up of 11.19 years. The risk factor control was defined by the attainment of target values for systolic blood pressure, body mass index, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, fasting blood glucose, high-sensitive C-reactive protein and smoking. Fine-Gray and Cox models were used to estimate associations between the degree of risk factor control and risk of heart failure and all-cause mortality respectively.

RESULTS

Among diabetes patients, there was a gradual reduction in the risk of outcomes as the degree of risk factor control increased. For each additional risk factor that was controlled, there was an associated 16 % decrease in heart failure risk and a 10 % decrease in all-cause mortality risk. Among diabetes patients with ≥5 well-controlled risk factors, the adjusted hazard ratio compared to controls for heart failure and all-cause mortality was 1.25 (95 %CI: 0.99-1.56) and 1.17(95 %CI: 1.05-1.31) respectively. The protective effect of comprehensive risk factor control on the risk of heart failure was more pronounced in men and those using antihypertensive medications.

CONCLUSIONS

Control for multiple risk factors is associated with reduced heart failure and all-cause mortality risks in a cumulative and sex-specific manner. However, despite optimization of risk factor control, diabetes patients still face increased risks compared to the general population.

Risk and effect modifiers for poor glycemic control among the chinese diabetic adults on statin therapy: the kailuan study

BACKGROUND

Limited studies have investigated the association between statin therapy and poor glycemic control, especially in the Chinese diabetic population.

METHODS

Two prospective diabetes cohorts were drawn from the Kailuan Cohort. In Cohort 1, linear regression models were used to evaluate the association between statin therapy and glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c) level change. In Cohort 2, new user design and conditional logistic models were used to assess associations between statin initiation and poor glycemic control which was a composite outcome comprised of hypoglycemic agent escalation and new-onset hyperglycemia.

RESULTS

Among 11,755 diabetic patients with medication information, 1400 statin users and 1767 statin nonusers with repeated HbA1c measurements were included in Cohort 1 (mean age: 64.6 ± 10.0 years). After a median follow-up of 3.02 (1.44, 5.00) years, statin therapy was associated with higher HbA1c levels (β: 0.20%; 95%CI: 0.05% to 0.34%). In Cohort 2, 1319 pairs of matched cases/controls were included (mean age: 61.6 ± 9.75 years). After a median follow-up of 4.87 (2.51, 8.42) years, poor glycemic control occurred in 43.0% of statin new users and 31.8% of statin nonusers (OR: 1.69; 95% CI: 1.32 to 2.17; P < 0.001). The statin-associated poor glycemic control risk was significantly higher among patients with lower body mass index (Pint = 0.089). Furthermore, a nonlinear association was observed between statin therapy duration and poor glycemic control (P = 0.003).

CONCLUSIONS

Among Chinese diabetic adults, statin therapy was associated with a higher level of HbA1c, and a higher risk of hypoglycemic agent escalation and new-onset hyperglycemia, especially among those who had lower body mass index levels and longer statin therapy duration.

Changes in Life's Essential 8 and risk of cardiovascular disease in Chinese people

BACKGROUND

The American Heart Association recently released an updated algorithm for evaluating cardiovascular health-Life's Essential 8 (LE8). However, the associations between changes in LE8 score over time and risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) remain unclear.

METHODS

We investigated associations between 6-year changes (2006-12) in LE8 score and risk of subsequent CVD events (2012-20) among 53 363 Chinese men and women from the Kailuan Study, who were free from CVD in 2012. The LE8 score was calculated based on eight components: diet quality, physical activity, smoking status, sleep health, body mass index, blood lipids, blood glucose and blood pressure. Multivariable-adjusted Cox proportional-hazards models were used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs).

RESULTS

We documented 4281 incident CVD cases during a median of 7.7 years of follow-up. Compared with participants whose LE8 scores remained stable in a 6-year period, those with the large increases of LE8 score over the 6-year period had a lower risk of CVD, heart disease and stroke in the subsequent 8 years [HRs and 95% CIs: 0.67 (0.64, 0.70) for CVD, 0.65 (0.61, 0.69) for heart disease, 0.71 (0.67, 0.76) for stroke, all Ptrend < 0.001]. Conversely, those with the large decreases of LE8 score had 47%, 51% and 41% higher risk for CVD, heart disease and stroke, respectively. These associations were consistent across the subgroups stratified by risk factors.

CONCLUSIONS

Improving LE8 score in a short- and moderate-term was associated with a lower CVD risk, whereas decreased LE8 score over time was associated with a higher risk.

Associations of serum uric acid variability with neuroimaging metrics and cognitive decline: a population-based cohort study

BACKGROUND

The relationship between variation in serum uric acid (SUA) levels and brain health is largely unknown. This study aimed to examine the associations of long-term variability in SUA levels with neuroimaging metrics and cognitive function.

METHODS

This study recruited 1111 participants aged 25-83 years from a multicenter, community-based cohort study. The SUA concentrations were measured every two years from 2006 to 2018. We measured the intraindividual SUA variability, including the direction and magnitude of change by calculating the slope value. The associations of SUA variability with neuroimaging markers (brain macrostructural volume, microstructural integrity, white matter hyperintensity, and the presence of cerebral small vessel disease) and cognitive function were examined using generalized linear models. Mediation analyses were performed to assess whether neuroimaging markers mediate the relationship between SUA variation and cognitive function.

RESULTS

Compared with the stable group, subjects with increased or decreased SUA levels were all featured by smaller brain white matter volume (beta =  - 0.25, 95% confidence interval [CI] - 0.39 to - 0.11 and beta =  - 0.15, 95% CI - 0.29 to - 0.02). Participants with progressively increased SUA exhibited widespread disrupted microstructural integrity, featured by lower global fractional anisotropy (beta =  - 0.24, 95% CI - 0.38 to - 0.10), higher mean diffusivity (beta = 0.16, 95% CI 0.04 to 0.28) and radial diffusivity (beta = 0.19, 95% CI 0.06 to 0.31). Elevated SUA was also associated with cognitive decline (beta =  - 0.18, 95% CI - 0.32 to - 0.04). White matter atrophy and impaired brain microstructural integrity mediated the impact of SUA increase on cognitive decline.

CONCLUSIONS

It is the magnitude of SUA variation rather than the direction that plays a critical negative role in brain health, especially for participants with hyperuricemia. Smaller brain white matter volume and impaired microstructural integrity mediate the relationship between increased SUA level and cognitive function decline. Long-term stability of SUA level is recommended for maintaining brain health and preventing cognitive decline.

Metabolic syndrome parameters' variability and stroke incidence in hypertensive patients: evidence from a functional community cohort

BACKGROUND

Stroke is a common complication of hypertension, but the predictive value of metabolic syndrome parameters' variability on stroke risk in individuals with hypertension remains unclear. Therefore, our objective was to investigate the relationship between metabolic syndrome parameters' variability and the risk of total stroke and its subtypes in hypertensive patients.

METHODS

This prospective cohort study included 17,789 individuals with hypertension from the Kailuan study since 2006. Metabolic syndrome parameters, including waist circumference (WC), fasting blood glucose (FBG), systolic blood pressure (SBP), high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C), and triglyceride (TG), were collected at three follow-up visits in the 2006, 2008, and 2010 surveys. We assess the variability utilizing the coefficient of variation (CV), standard deviation (SD), average real variation (ARV), and variability independent of the mean (VIM), with CV initially assessed. Participants were categorized based on the number of high-variability metabolic syndrome parameters (0, 1, 2, ≥ 3). Stroke cases were identified by reviewing medical records. The associations between variability in metabolic syndrome parameters and the risk of total stroke and its subtypes were analyzed using Cox proportional hazard regression models.

RESULTS

During a median follow-up of 9.32 years, 1223 cases of stroke were recorded. Participants with ≥ 3 high-variability metabolic syndrome parameters had an increased risk of total stroke (HR: 1.29, 95%CI 1.09-1.52), as well as an increased risk of ischemic stroke (HR: 1.31, 95%CI 1.05-1.63) compared to those without high-variability parameters. The study also examined variability in each metabolic syndrome parameter, and significant associations with an increased risk of total stroke were observed for variability in SBP (HR: 1.24, 95%CI 1.05-1.46) and HDL-C (HR: 1.34, 95%CI 1.09-1.64).

CONCLUSIONS

Long-term fluctuations in metabolic syndrome parameters significantly increase the risk of total stroke, especially ischemic stroke. Maintaining low variability in metabolic syndrome parameters could benefit health, and hypertensive individuals must be regularly monitored.

Gender disparities in all-cause mortality among individuals with early-onset cardiovascular diseases

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE

Gender disparities in mortality among individuals with early-onset cardiovascular disease (CVD) remain uncertain. This study aimed to investigate gender differences in all-cause mortality and identify influencing factors.

METHODS

Data extracted from the Kailuan Study, a prospective cohort study initiated in 2006, were analyzed. A total of 2,829 participants with early-onset CVD were included. Cox proportional hazard models were used to assess hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for gender disparities in all-cause mortality, adjusting for various factors.

RESULTS

Males experienced a median follow-up duration of 7.54 years with 276 recorded deaths, and females had a median follow-up of 6.45 years with 105 recorded deaths. Gender disparities in all-cause mortality were observed, with men experiencing a higher all-cause mortality risk compared to women (HR: 1.42, 95% CI: 1.04, 1.92) in the fully adjusted model. Both in men and women with early-onset CVD, elevated hs-CRP levels and an eGFR < 60 mL/min/1.73m2 notably escalated the risk of all-cause mortality. Furthermore, the utilization of antiplatelet agents and successful blood glucose control might mitigate the risk of all-cause mortality. Smoking and eGFR decline modified the association between gender and all-cause death, women were more vulnerable to tobacco consumption and kidney misfunctioning than men (P-interaction = 0.019).

CONCLUSION

The study highlights gender disparities in all-cause mortality among individuals with early-onset CVD, with men experiencing a higher risk of mortality compared to women. Addressing these disparities is important for improving outcomes in this population. Further research is needed to develop sex-specific interventions and strategies to reduce gender-related mortality disparities in early-onset CVD.

Association of Life's Essential 8 with all-cause mortality and risk of cancer: a prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

No study has concentrated on the association of LE8 with cancer risk and death. We aim to examine the association of LE8 with death and cancer.

METHODS

A total of 94733 adults aged 51.42 ± 12.46 years and 77551 participants aged 54.09±12.06 years were enrolled in longitudinal and trajectory analysis respectively. Baseline LE8 was divided into three groups based on the American Heart Association criteria and three trajectory patterns by latent mixture models. We reviewed medical records and clinical examinations to confirm incident cancer during the period from 2006 to 2020. Death information was collected from provincial vital statistics offices. Cox models were used.

RESULTS

12807 all-cause deaths and 5060 cancers were documented during a 14-year follow-up. Relative to participants with high LE8 at baseline, participants with lower levels of LE8 have a significantly increased risk of mortality and incident cancer. All these risks have an increasing trend with LE8 level decreasing. Meanwhile, the trajectory analysis recorded 7483 all-cause deaths and 3037 incident cancers after approximately 10 years. The associations of LE8 with death and cancer were identical to the longitudinal study. In the subtype cancer analysis, LE8 has a strong effect on colorectal cancer risk. Moreover, the cut point is 56.67 in the association between LE8 and death, while the cut point altered to 64.79 in the association between LE8 and incident cancers. These associations were enhanced among younger adults.

CONCLUSIONS

There was a significant association of LE8 with death and cancer risk, especially for the young population.

Association of longitudinal trajectories of fasting plasma glucose with all-cause and cardiovascular mortality among a Chinese older population: a retrospective cohort study

The association between fasting plasma glucose (FPG), an important indicator of overall glycemic status, and the risk of cardiovascular mortality has been well investigated. The longitudinal study can repeatedly collect measured results for the variables to be studied and then consider the potential effects of intraindividual changes in measurement. This study aimed to identify long-term FPG trajectories and investigate the association between trajectory groups and cardiovascular and all-cause mortality. A latent class growth mixture modeling (LCGMM) was used to identify FPG trajectories. Cox proportional hazard models were used to estimate associations between FPG trajectories and the risk of all-cause and cardiovascular mortality. A U-shaped relationship between FPG and all-cause and cardiovascular mortality was observed in the restricted cubic spline regression models. Two FPG longitudinal trajectories of low-level (mean FPG = 5.12mmol/L) and high-level (mean FPG = 6.74mmol/L) were identified by LCGMM. After being adjusted for potential confounders, compared with the low-level category, the hazard ratios (HRs) for all-cause and cardiovascular mortality were 1.23(1.16-1.30) and 1.25(1.16-1.35), respectively, for the high-level group. Long-term FPG trajectories are significantly associated with and potentially impact the risk of all-cause and cardiovascular mortality.

Clusters of longitudinal risk profile trajectories are associated with cardiometabolic diseases: Results from the population-based KORA cohort

BACKGROUND

Multiple risk factors contribute jointly to the development and progression of cardiometabolic diseases. Therefore, joint longitudinal trajectories of multiple risk factors might represent different degrees of cardiometabolic risk.

METHODS

We analyzed population-based data comprising three examinations (Exam 1: 1999-2001, Exam 2: 2006-2008, Exam 3: 2013-2014) of 976 male and 1004 female participants of the KORA cohort (Southern Germany). Participants were followed up for cardiometabolic diseases, including cardiovascular mortality, myocardial infarction and stroke, or a diagnosis of type 2 diabetes, until 2016. Longitudinal multivariate k-means clustering identified sex-specific trajectory clusters based on nine cardiometabolic risk factors (age, systolic and diastolic blood pressure, body-mass-index, waist circumference, Hemoglobin-A1c, total cholesterol, high- and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol). Associations between clusters and cardiometabolic events were assessed by logistic regression models.

RESULTS

We identified three trajectory clusters for men and women, respectively. Trajectory clusters reflected a distinct distribution of cardiometabolic risk burden and were associated with prevalent cardiometabolic disease at Exam 3 (men: odds ratio (OR)ClusterII = 2.0, 95% confidence interval: (0.9-4.5); ORClusterIII = 10.5 (4.8-22.9); women: ORClusterII = 1.7 (0.6-4.7); ORClusterIII = 5.8 (2.6-12.9)). Trajectory clusters were furthermore associated with incident cardiometabolic cases after Exam 3 (men: ORClusterII = 3.5 (1.1-15.6); ORClusterIII = 7.5 (2.4-32.7); women: ORClusterII = 5.0 (1.1-34.1); ORClusterIII = 8.0 (2.2-51.7)). Associations remained significant after adjusting for a single time point cardiovascular risk score (Framingham).

CONCLUSIONS

On a population-based level, distinct longitudinal risk profiles over a 14-year time period are differentially associated with cardiometabolic events. Our results suggest that longitudinal data may provide additional information beyond single time-point measures. Their inclusion in cardiometabolic risk assessment might improve early identification of individuals at risk.

Arterial stiffness and risk of new-onset fragility fracture in Chinese men and women: The Kailuan cohort study

BACKGROUND

Previous studies have shown an association between increased arterial stiffness and reduced bone mineral density. However, the relationship between arterial stiffness and fragility fracture remains unclear. In this study, we explored the impact of arterial stiffness on the risk of new-onset fragility fracture.

METHODS

The study included 53,107 participants in the Kailuan Study in whom brachial-ankle pulse wave velocity (baPWV) measurements were obtained between 2010 and 2021. All participants were free of fragility fractures at baseline. A Cox proportional hazard regression model was used to estimate the hazard ratio (HR) and 95 % confidence interval (CI) for incident fragility fracture on the baseline baPWV groups: <1400 cm/s (reference), 1400 ≤ baPWV < 1800 cm/s, and ≥1800 cm/s.

RESULTS

In total, 327 incident fragility fractures were recorded during an average follow-up of 4.99 ± 3.02 years. After adjustment for potential confounders, the HR for the risk of new-onset fragility fracture was 1.66 (95 % CI 1.14-2.42) for the arterial stiffness group in comparison with the normal baPWV group. The risk of fragility fracture was higher in men (HR 1.64, 95 % CI 1.05-2.57). There was a linear association between higher baPWV and fragility fracture.

CONCLUSIONS

Arterial stiffness as measured by baPWV was associated with the risk of fragility fracture.

Trajectories of Body Mass Index and Waist Circumference in Relation to the Risk of Cardiac Arrhythmia: A Prospective Cohort Study

BACKGROUND

The aim of the current study was to explore the trajectories, variabilities, and cumulative exposures of body mass index (BMI) and waist circumference (WC) with cardiac arrhythmia (CA) risks.

METHODS

In total, 35,739 adults from the Kailuan study were included. BMI and WC were measured repeatedly during the 2006-2010 waves. CA was identified via electrocardiogram diagnosis. BMI and WC trajectories were fitted using a group-based trajectory model. The associations were estimated using Cox proportional hazards models.

RESULTS

We identified four stable trajectories for BMI and WC, respectively. Neither the BMI trajectories nor the baseline BMI values were associated with the risk of CA. Compared to the low-stable WC group, participants in the high-stable WC group had a higher risk of CA (hazard ratio (HR) = 1.40, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.06, 1.86). Interestingly, the cumulative exposures of BMI and WC instead of their variabilities were associated with the risk of CA. In the stratified analyses, the positive associations of the high-stable WC group with the risk of CA were found in females only (HR = 1.98, 95% CI: 1.02, 3.83).

CONCLUSIONS

A high-stable WC trajectory is associated with a higher risk of CA among Chinese female adults, underscoring the potential of WC rather than BMI to identify adults who are at risk.

Cancer risk according to fasting blood glucose trajectories: a population-based cohort study

INTRODUCTION

Diabetes mellitus is known to increase the risk of cancer. Fasting blood glucose (FBG) levels can be changed over time. However, the association between FBG trajectory and cancer risk has been insufficiently studied. This research aims to examine the relationship between FBG trajectories and cancer risk in the Korean population.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

We analyzed data from the National Health Insurance Service-National Health Screening Cohort collected between 2002 and 2015. Group-based trajectory modeling was performed on 256,271 Koreans aged 40-79 years who had participated in health examinations at least three times from 2002 to 2007. After excluding patients with cancer history before 2008, we constructed a cancer-free cohort. The Cox proportional hazards model was applied to examine the association between FBG trajectories and cancer incidence by cancer type, after adjustments for covariates. Cancer case was defined as a person who was an outpatient thrice or was hospitalized once or more with a cancer diagnosis code within the first year of the claim.

RESULTS

During the follow-up time (2008-2015), 18,991 cancer cases were identified. Four glucose trajectories were found: low-stable (mean of FBG at each wave <100 mg/dL), elevated-stable (113-124 mg/dL), elevated-high (104-166 mg/dL), and high-stable (>177 mg/dL). The high-stable group had a higher risk of multiple myeloma, liver cancer and gastrointestinal cancer than the low-stable group, with HR 4.09 (95% CI 1.40 to 11.95), HR 1.68 (95% CI 1.25 to 2.26) and HR 1.27 (95% CI 1.11 to 1.45), respectively. In elevated-stable trajectory, the risk increased for all cancer (HR 1.08, 95% CI 1.02 to 1.16) and stomach cancer (HR 1.24, 95% CI 1.07 to 1.43). Significant associations were also found in the elevated-high group with oral (HR 2.13, 95% CI 1.01 to 4.47), liver (HR 1.50, 95% CI 1.08 to 2.08) and pancreatic cancer (HR 1.99, 95% CI 1.20 to 3.30).

CONCLUSIONS

Our study highlights that the uncontrolled high glucose level for many years may increase the risk of cancer.

Baseline and longitudinal cardiovascular health using Life's Essential 8 metrics with the risk of incident hypertension

OBJECTIVE

The quantification of cardiovascular health (CVH) was updated by the American Heart Association recently by using the "Life's Essential 8" (LE8) score. We aimed to investigate the associations of baseline and longitudinal CVH status measured by the new LE8 score (except for blood pressure) with the risk of hypertension.

METHODS

A total of 52 990 participants with complete data on LE8 metrics and without hypertension were enrolled from the Kailuan study, Tangshan, China. The associations of incident hypertension with the overall baseline, time-updated, and time-varying CVH score (ranging 0 [lowest] to 100 [highest]), and each component of LE8, were assessed by Cox regressions.

RESULTS

During a median follow-up of 10.73 years 28 380 cases of incident hypertension were identified. The risk of hypertension attenuated with increased CVH score (Ptrend < 0.0001), the hazard ratios (HRs) in high CVH versus low CVH group was 0.54 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.51-0.57) for baseline CVH, 0.47 (95% CI, 0.45-0.50) for time-updated CVH, and 0.59 (95% CI, 0.55-0.63) for time-varying CVH. The predictive value of CVH in predicting hypertension improved by using LE8 than using Life's Simple 7 metrics. Among LE8 components, body mass index score was the strongest risk factor for hypertension. Subgroup analyses showed that the benefit of a higher CVH score on hypertension was more prominent in young adults and in women (Pinteraction < 0.05).

CONCLUSIONS

A higher CVH score assessed by new LE8 is associated with a lower risk of subsequent hypertension, especially young adults and women.

Accumulated exposure to high non-high-density lipoprotein cholesterol increases the risk of cardiovascular diseases in hypertensive individuals: An 11-year prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

The relationship of cumulative non high-density lipoprotein-cholesterol (Cum-non-HDL-C) concentration with the risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in individuals with hypertension remains unclear.

METHODS

In total 27 234 participants for whom three consecutive total cholesterol and HDL-C concentrations were available, and who did not have CVD, comprising 13 617 with hypertension and 13 617 without from 2006 to 2010. Participants were placed into four groups according to Cum-non-HDL-C. Cox proportional hazards models were used to evaluate the relationship between Cum-non-HDL-C and the risk of CVD.

RESULTS

Over a median 11 years, 1,298 participants with hypertension developed CVD. After adjustment for multiple potential confounding factors, compared with participants with hypertension and Cum-non-HDL-C < 130 mg/dl, the fully adjusted hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals of CVD associated with Cum-non-HDL-C values of 130-159 mg/dl, 160-189 mg/dl, and ≥ 190 mg/dl were 1.23 (1.01, 1.34), 1.27 (1.04, 1.56), and 1.51 (1.13, 2.01), respectively. Compared with participants without hypertension and a Cum-non-HDL-C < 130 mg/dl, the fully adjusted hazard ratios (95% confidence intervals) for the participants with hypertension and Cum-non-HDL-Cs < 130 mg/dl, 130-159 mg/dl, 160-189 mg/dl, and ≥ 190 mg/dl were 1.84 (1.55, 2.18), 2.16 (1.81, 2.59), 2.17 (1.73, 2.70), and 2.45 (1.12, 3.29), respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

A consistently high non-HDL-C concentration increases the risk of CVD in individuals with hypertension, as does prolonged exposure to a high non-HDL-C concentration. Thus, the achievement of target blood pressure and non-HDL-C concentrations should help reduce the risk of CVD in individuals with hypertension.

Association Between New-Onset Type 2 Diabetes and Cardiac Conduction Diseases: A Prospective Cohort Study

BACKGROUND

Cardiac conduction diseases can lead to life-threatening outcomes. However, the evidence on risk factors for conduction disease that is needed to underpin prevention strategies is limited. The present study aimed to determine the association between type 2 diabetes and cardiac conduction diseases.

METHODS AND RESULTS

This study included 101 080 participants free of prevalent diabetes and cardiac conduction diseases at baseline from the Kailuan Study. All participants were monitored biennially until December 31, 2020. During follow-up, 14 397 participants were diagnosed as having type 2 diabetes. For each case subject, 1 control subject was randomly selected, matched for age (±1 year) and sex. The final analysis comprised 10 744 case-control pairs. Cox regression models with age as the underlying time scale were used. During a median follow-up of 5.46 years, 571 incident events occurred, including 164 atrioventricular blocks, 414 bundle-branch blocks (BBBs), 274 right BBBs, and 210 left BBBs. After adjustment for potential confounders, participants with type 2 diabetes diagnosed had greater relative risks for most outcomes relative to controls, with hazard ratios of 1.42 (95% CI, 1.18-1.67) for conduction diseases, 1.40 (95% CI, 1.00-1.96) for atrioventricular blocks, 1.43 (95% CI, 1.16-1.75) for BBBs, and 1.69 (95% CI, 1.15-2.49) for left BBBs. In contrast, no association between diabetes and right BBB was observed.

CONCLUSIONS

In this study, participants with type 2 diabetes are at an increased risk of cardiac conduction disease but not associated with the development of right BBB.

Magnitude and time course of insulin resistance accumulation with the risk of cardiovascular disease: an 11-years cohort study

BACKGROUND

The risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) depended on the magnitude and exposure duration of insulin resistance (IR). This study aimed to investigate the associations of cumulative metabolic score for IR (cumMETS-IR) with incident CVD, and to further explore the modulated effects of time course of METS-IR accumulation.

METHODS

We enrolled 47,270 participants without CVD and underwent three examinations during 2006-2010 from the Kailuan study. CumMETS-IR from 2006 to 2010 were calculated as the mean values of METS-IR between consecutive examinations multiplying by time intervals between visits. Time course of METS-IR accumulation was calculated as the slope of METS-IR versus time. Hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for CVD risk were calculated with multivariable-adjusted Cox regressions.

RESULTS

During a median follow-up of 10.99 years, we identified 3184 cases of incident CVD. The risk of incident CVD increased with increasing cumMETS-IR (HR, 1.77; 95% CI 1.58-1.98 for the Q4 versus Q1 group), exposure duration (HR, 1.60; 95% CI 1.45-1.77 for 6 years versus 0 years), and cumulative burden (HR, 1.49; 95% CI 1.37-1.61 for burden ≥ 0 versus < 0). A positive slope was associated with 14% higher risk of CVD (HR, 1.14; 95% CI 1.07-1.22). When combining cumMETS-IR and slope, those with cumMETS-IR ≥ median (142.78) and slope ≥ 0 had the highest risk of CVD (HR,1.38; 95% CI 1.25-1.53).

CONCLUSIONS

The risk of CVD increased with elevated cumMETS-IR and an increasing trend over time, emphasizing the importance of maintaining optimal METS-IR levels across life span.

Risk factors associated with glycated hemoglobin A1c trajectories progressing to type 2 diabetes

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE

The notion of prediabetes, defined by the ADA as glycated hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) of 5.7-6.4%, implies increased vascular inflammatory and immunologic processes and higher risk for developing diabetes mellitus and major cardiovascular events. We aimed to determine the risk factors associated with rapid progression of normal and prediabetes patients to type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM).

METHODS

Retrospective cohort study in a single 8-hospital health system in southeast Michigan, between 2006 and 2020. All patients with HbA1c <6.5% at baseline and at least 2 other HbA1c measurements were clustered in five trajectories encompassing more than 95% of the study population. Multivariate linear regression analysis was performed to examine the association of demographic and comorbidities with HbA1c trajectories progressing to diabetes.

RESULTS

A total of 5,347 prediabetic patients were clustered based on their HbA1c progression (C1: 4,853, C2: 253, C66: 102, C12: 85, C68: 54). The largest cluster (C1) had a baseline median HbA1c value of 6.0% and exhibited stable HbA1c levels in prediabetic range across all subsequent years. The smallest cluster (C68) had the lowest median baseline HbA1c value and also remained stable across subsequent years. The proportion of normal HbA1c in each of the pre-diabetic trajectories ranged from 0 to 12.7%, whereas 81.5% of the reference cluster (C68) were normal HbA1c at baseline. The C2 (steady rising) trajectory was significantly associated with BMI (adj OR 1.10, 95%CI 1.03-1.17), and family history of DM (adj OR 2.75, 95%CI 1.32-5.74). With respect to the late rising trajectories, baseline BMI was significantly associated with both C66 and C12 trajectory (adj OR 1.10, 95%CI 1.03-1.18) and (adj OR 1.13, 95%CI 1.05-1.23) respectively, whereas, the C12 trajectory was also significantly associated with age (adj OR 1.62, 95%CI 1.04-2.53) and history of MACE (adj OR 3.20, 95%CI 1.14-8.93).

CONCLUSIONS

We suggest that perhaps a more aggressive preventative approach should be considered in patients with a family history of T2DM who have high BMI and year-to-year increase in HbA1c, whether they have normal hemoglobin A1c or they have prediabetes.KEY MESSAGESProgression to diabetes from normal or prediabetic hemoglobin A1c within four years is associated with baseline BMI.A steady rise in HbA1c during a four-year period is associated with age and family history of T2DM, whereas age and personal history of MACE are associated with a rapid rise in HbA1c.A more aggressive preventative approach should be considered in patients with a family history of T2DM who have high BMI and year-to-year increase in HbA1c.

Visit-to-visit blood pressure variability and the risk of cardiovascular disease: a prospective cohort analysis

Large blood pressure (BP) variability contributed to subclinical brain disease thus may be implicated in the development of cardiovascular disease (CVD). This study included 64,810 CVD-free participants who attended the first two examinations from the Kailuan study to investigate the association of BP variation, considering its magnitude, direction, and time interval prior to CVD diagnosis, with the risk of CVD in Chinese population. Magnitude and directional BP variability was calculated as absolute BP difference or BP difference value divided by mean BP over 2 sequential visits, respectively. During a median follow-up of 10.91 years, a total of 4129 cases of CVD. A large SBP variability (the highest vs the lowest tertile) was associated with a higher risk of CVD (adjusted HR, 1.31; 95% CI, 1.22-1.41). The associations were stronger with longer time intervals, the hazard ratio (HR) with 95% confidence interval (CI) for CVD was 1.30 (95% CI, 1.20-1.39) at 1 years, 1.32 (1.18-1.40) at 3 years, and 1.34 (1.20-1.45) at 5 years. For directional SBP variability, rise in SBP was associated with an increased risk of CVD (HR, 6.17; 95% CI, 5.65-6.75), while fall in SBP was associated with a decreased risk of CVD (HR, 0.52; 95% CI, 0.46-0.59). Subgroup analysis showed the significant associations were only observed in men (Pint = 0.0010). Similar patterns were observed for DBP variability and CVD subtypes. The results indicated that a large SBP variation in rise direction was associated with an increased risk of incident CVD, especially in men.

Transitions in Metabolic Health and Onset Age of Cardiovascular Diseases

INTRODUCTION

The cardiometabolic risk associated with metabolically healthy obesity remains the subject of debate. It is unclear whether changes in metabolically healthy obesity status affect premature cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk. Authors aimed to investigate the association of metabolically healthy obesity and its transition over time with incident CVD by age at onset.

METHODS

In a community-based, prospective cohort study, 54,441 adults without CVD in or before 2010 were followed for incident CVD until 2020. This sample was analyzed in 2022. Four age groups were examined (<55, 55-65, 65-75, and ≥75 years) for CVD onset. In each age group, participants were cross-classified by BMI categories and metabolic health. The Cox proportional hazards model with age as the underlying time scale was used to examine the associations of metabolic health status and its transition with CVD across BMI categories.

RESULTS

During a median follow-up of 9.59 years, 3,038 participants developed CVD. Individuals with metabolically unhealthy obesity at baseline had the highest hazard ratio for CVD onset at any age, ranging from 2.68 (95% CI=2.02, 3.55) for CVD onset in those aged <55 years to 1.55 (95% CI=1.09, 2.10) for CVD onset in those aged ≥75 years. Individuals who had metabolically healthy obesity at baseline or even remained metabolically healthy during 2006-2010 were still at increased risk of premature CVD, and the association attenuated with increasing age of CVD onset.

CONCLUSIONS

The metabolically healthy obesity phenotype is dynamic and its transition to a metabolically unhealthy phenotype or even stable metabolically healthy obesity is associated with an increased risk of CVD. The associations were more evident for CVD onset at younger ages.

Association of cumulative blood glucose load with cardiovascular risk and all-cause mortality

BACKGROUND

Incorporation both the magnitude and duration of exposure to elevated fasting blood glucose (FBG) into a single risk parameter (cumulative FBG load) for future diseases is intuitively appealing, although a data-based demonstration of the utility of this metric is not available. This study aimed to investigate the associations with cumulative FBG load with the risk of cardiovascular diseases (CVD) and all-cause mortality in the general population.

METHODS

This prospective cohort study included 41,728 participants who were free of CVD and underwent four health examinations from 2006 to 2012. Cumulative FBG load during 2006-2012 was calculated as the area under curve for FBG values ≥ 5.6 mmol/L divided by the total area curve. We also compared the predicting value cumulative FBG load with other FBG metrics.

RESULTS

During a median follow-up of 6.75 years, we identified 2323 cases of CVD and 1724 cases of all-cause mortality. Per 1-standard deviation increase in cumulative FBG load was associated with a 16 % higher risk of CVD (hazard ratio [HR]: 1.16; 95 % confidence interval [CI], 1.13-1.20) and 20 % higher risk of all-cause mortality (HR, 1.20; 95 % CI, 1.16-1.25). For the prediction of cardiovascular outcomes and all-cause mortality, cumulative FBG load outperformed FBG time-in-target, visit-to-visit FBG variability, and mean FBG in terms of C-statistics and reclassification indexes.

CONCLUSIONS

Cumulative FBG load may provide a better prediction of cardiovascular outcomes compared with other FBG metrics in the general population. These findings emphasized the important role of cumulative FBG load in assessing cardiovascular and mortality risk.

The impact of bilateral brachial-ankle pulse wave velocity difference on cardiovascular disease and all-cause mortality

Background

This study aims to investigate the association between an elevated bilateral pulse wave velocity difference (BPWVD) and cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) and all-cause mortality.

Methods

This study included a total of 38,356 participants. A multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression was used to assess the association between high BPWVD and the increased risk of CVDs and all-cause mortality by calculating hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% confidence intervals.

Results

A total of 1,213 cases of CVDs were identified over a mean duration of 6.19 years, including 886 cases of cerebral infarction (CI), 105 cases of intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH), and 222 cases of myocardial infarction (MI), along with 1,182 cases of all-cause mortality. The median BPWVD was 42 cm/s (19-80 cm/s). After adjusting for all confounders and baseline brachial-ankle PWV (baPWV), our analysis revealed a significant correlation between a higher risk of CVDs, MI, and all-cause mortality with an increase in BPWVD per standard deviation. HRs (95% confidence interval) were found to be 1.06 (1.01-1.11), 1.11 (1.02-1.21), and 1.07 (1.04-1.10), respectively. Among the participants with higher baPWV on the left side, the HRs (95% confidence interval) were 1.08 (1.02-1.14) for CVDs, 1.27 (1.10-1.46) for incident ICH, 1.16 (1.00-1.24) for incident MI, and 1.10 (1.07-1.15) for all-cause mortality, for per standard deviation increase in BPWVD.

Conclusions

Our findings reveal a significant correlation between elevated BPWVD and the risks of developing CVDs and all-cause mortality. This highlights the importance of thoroughly evaluating BPWVD as a means of detecting individuals at risk for CVDs and mortality.

Distinct WBC Trajectories are Associated with the Risks of Incident CVD and All-Cause Mortality

AIMS

To examine the trajectory of white blood cell (WBC) and their potential impacts on cardiovascular disease (CVD) and all-cause mortality (ACM) risks.

METHODS

This prospective cohort included 61,666 participants without CVD on or before June 1, 2012. Latent mixture modeling was used to identify WBC trajectories in 2006-2012 as predictors of CVD and ACM. Incident CVD and ACM in 2012-2019 were the outcomes. Cox proportional hazards models were fitted to analyze the risks of incident CVD and ACM.

RESULTS

According to WBC ranges and dynamics, five distinct WBC trajectories were identified: low-stable (n=18,432), moderate-stable (n=26,656), elevated-stable (n=3,153), moderate-increasing (n=11,622), and elevated-decreasing (n=1,803). During 6.65±0.83 years of follow-up, we documented 3773 incident CVD cases and 3304 deaths. Relative to the low-stable pattern, the moderate-increasing pattern was predictive of an elevated risk of CVD (HR=1.36, 95% CI: 1.24-1.50), especially acute myocardial infarction (AMI) (HR=1.91, 95% CI: 1.46-2.51), while the elevated-stable pattern was predictive of an elevated risk of ACM (HR=1.77, 95% CI: 1.52-2.06). Among participants with hs-CRP ＜2 mg/L or ≥2 mg/L, similar associations were observed between the moderate-increasing pattern with CVD (HR=1.41, 95% CI: 1.24-1.61) and ACM (HR=1.54, 95% CI: 1.18-2.01, HR=1.89, 95% CI: 1.57-2.29, respectively).

CONCLUSIONS

We found that distinct WBC trajectories were differentially associated with CVD and ACM risks in Chinese adults.

Cumulative exposure to high remnant-cholesterol concentrations increases the risk of cardiovascular disease in patients with hypertension: a prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

The relationship of cumulative remnant-cholesterol (Cum-RC) concentration with the risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in patients with hypertension remains unclear.

METHODS

We studied data for 28,698 individuals for whom three consecutive total cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein-cholesterol (HDL-C), and triglyceride concentrations were available, and who did not have CVD (14,349 with hypertension and 14,349 without), that was collected between 2006 and 2010. Participants with hypertension were placed into four groups based on Cum-RC quartile: a Q1 group (< 26.40 mg/dl), a Q2 group (26.40-39.56 mg/dl), a Q3 group (39.57-54.65 mg/dl), and a Q4 group (≥ 54.66 mg/dl). Cox proportional hazards models were used to evaluate the relationship between Cum-RC and the risk of CVD.

RESULTS

Over a median 10.9 (interquartile range, 10.5-11.3) years, 1,444 participants with hypertension developed CVD. After adjustment for multiple potential confounding factors, and compared with the Q1 Cum-RC group of the participants with hypertension, the adjusted hazard ratios for CVD for the Q2-Q4 groups were 1.07(0.92,1.26), 1.08(0.91,1.28), and 1.26(1.03,1.54) (P = 0.0405); those for myocardial infarction were 1.51(1.00,2.31), 2.02(1.22,3.27), and 2.08(1.41,3.28) (P < 0.0001); and those for ischemic stroke were 1.02(0.84,1.24), 1.04(0.86,1.25), and 1.29(1.02,1.62), respectively (P = 0.0336). However, no significant relationship was found between Cum-RC and the risk of hemorrhage stroke. At the same Cum-RC, the risk of CVD was significantly higher in participants with hypertension than in those without.

CONCLUSIONS

A consistently high remnant-cholesterol concentration increases the risk of CVD in individuals with hypertension. Therefore, the achievement of blood pressure and RC concentration targets should help reduce the risk of CVD in individuals with hypertension.

Identification and validation of core genes for type 2 diabetes mellitus by integrated analysis of single-cell and bulk RNA-sequencing

BACKGROUND

The exact mechanisms of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) remain largely unknown. We intended to authenticate critical genes linked to T2DM progression by tandem single-cell sequencing and general transcriptome sequencing data.

METHODS

T2DM single-cell RNA-sequencing data were submitted by the Gene Expression Omnibus (GEO) database and ArrayExpress (EBI), from which gene expression matrices were retrieved. The common cell clusters and representative marker genes were ascertained by principal component analysis (PCA), t-distributed stochastic neighbor embedding (t-SNE), CellMarker, and FindMarkers in two datasets (GSE86469 and GSE81608). T2DM-related differentially expressed marker genes were defined by intersection analysis of marker genes and GSE86468-differentially expressed genes. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were utilized to assign representative marker genes with diagnostic values by GSE86468, GSE29226 and external validation GSE29221, and their prospective target compounds were forecasted by PubChem. Besides, the R package clusterProfiler-based functional annotation was designed to unveil the intrinsic mechanisms of the target genes. At last, western blot was used to validate the alternation of CDKN1C and DLK1 expression in primary pancreatic islet cells cultured with or without 30mM glucose.

RESULTS

Three common cell clusters were authenticated in two independent T2DM single-cell sequencing data, covering neurons, epithelial cells, and smooth muscle cells. Functional ensemble analysis disclosed an intimate association of these cell clusters with peptide/insulin secretion and pancreatic development. Pseudo-temporal trajectory analysis indicated that almost all epithelial and smooth muscle cells were of neuron origin. We characterized CDKN1C and DLK1, which were notably upregulated in T2DM samples, with satisfactory availability in recognizing three representative marker genes in non-diabetic and T2DM samples, and they were also robustly interlinked with the clinical characteristics of patients. Western blot also demonstrated that, compared with control group, the expression of CDKN1C and DLK1 were increased in primary pancreatic islet cells cultured with 30 mM glucose for 48 h. Additionally, PubChem projected 11 and 21 potential compounds for CDKN1C and DLK1, respectively.

CONCLUSION

It is desirable that the emergence of the 2 critical genes indicated (CDKN1C and DLK1) could be catalysts for the investigation of the mechanisms of T2DM progression and the exploitation of innovative therapies.

Better Life's Essential 8 Is Associated With Lower Risk of Diabetic Kidney Disease: A Community-Based Study

Background Diabetic kidney disease (DKD) is a common diabetic complication and increases the complexity of diabetes management. No prospective study has focused on the association between DKD and Life's Essential 8 (LE8). Our study aims to examine the association between LE8 and DKD risk. Methods and Results A total of 7605 participants, aged 54.32±9.77 years, and 4688 participants, aged 56.11±10.38 years, were included in the longitudinal and trajectory analyses, respectively, from 2006 to 2020. The DKD was confirmed using data collected during each follow-up. LE8 was based on 4 health behaviors and 4 health factors. The range of each metric was 0 to 100, and the overall LE8 score was calculated as the unweighted average of all 8 component metric scores. The trajectories of LE8 during 2006 to 2010 were classified using latent mixture models. Cox models and restricted cubic splines were applied. After a median follow-up of 12.41 and 6.71 years in longitudinal and trajectory analyses, respectively, the DKD incidence decreased, with the LE8 level increasing (P-trend<0.05), and the linearity assumption for this relationship (P-nonlinear=0.685) had been satisfied. Adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) for the highest tertile were 0.77 (95% CI, 0.69-0.87) and 0.70 (95% CI, 0.62-0.78) in baseline and time-updated LE8 scores, respectively, compared with the lowest tertile. Adjusted HR was 0.53 (95% CI, 0.41-0.69) for the stable-high pattern compared with the stable-low pattern. Conclusions Although LE8 is an indicator of cardiovascular health, the beneficial impact of a high LE8 score is also evident in the protection of renal health among patients with diabetes.

Brachial-ankle pulse wave velocity is a stronger predictor than blood pressure for atherosclerotic cardiovascular diseases and all-cause mortality: a cohort study

Whether brachial-ankle pulse wave velocity (baPWV) is a better predictive indicator than blood pressure (BP) for atherosclerotic cardiovascular diseases (ASCVD) events and all-cause mortality in the general population has not yet been established. The current study included 47,659 participants from the Kailuan cohort in China, who underwent the baPWV test and were free of ASCVD, atrial fibrillation, and cancer at baseline. The hazard ratios (HRs) of ASCVD and all-cause mortality were evaluated using the Cox proportional hazards model. The predictive ability of baPWV, systolic BP (SBP), and diastolic BP (DBP) for ASCVD and all-cause mortality was evaluated using the area under the curve (AUC) and concordance index (C-index). Within the median follow-up period of 3.27 and 3.32 person-years, 885 ASCVD events and 259 deaths occurred, respectively. The HRs of ASCVD and all-cause mortality increased with the increase of baPWV, SBP, and DBP. When baPWV, SBP, and DBP were analyzed as continuous variables, the adjusted HRs were 1.29 (95% CI, 1.22-1.37), 1.28 (95% CI, 1.20-1.37), and 1.26 (95% CI, 1.17-1.34) for each standard deviation increase, respectively. The AUC and C-index for baPWV in predicting ASCVD and all-cause mortality were 0.744 and 0.750, respectively, while those for SBP were 0.697 and 0.620, those for DBP were 0.666 and 0.585. The AUC and C-index of baPWV were higher than those of SBP and DBP (P < 0.001). Therefore, baPWV is an independent predictor of ASCVD and all-cause mortality in the general Chinese population, and its predictive ability is superior to that of BP. baPWV is a more ideal screening method for ASCVD in large-scale population.

Visit-to-visit HbA1c variability is associated with aortic stiffness progression in participants with type 2 diabetes

BACKGROUND

Glycemic variability plays an important role in the development of cardiovascular disease (CVD). This study aims to determine whether long-term visit-to-visit glycemic variability is associated with aortic stiffness progression in participants with type 2 diabetes (T2D).

METHODS

Prospective data were obtained from 2115 T2D participants in the National Metabolic Management Center (MMC) from June 2017 to December 2022. Two brachial-ankle pulse wave velocity (ba-PWV) measurements were performed to assess aortic stiffness over a mean follow-up period of 2.6 years. A multivariate latent class growth mixed model was applied to identify trajectories of blood glucose. Logistic regression models were used to determine the odds ratio (OR) for aortic stiffness associated with glycemic variability evaluated by the coefficient of variation (CV), variability independent of the mean (VIM), average real variability (ARV), and successive variation (SV) of blood glucose.

RESULTS

Four distinct trajectories of glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c) or fasting blood glucose (FBG) were identified. In the U-shape class of HbA1c and FBG, the adjusted ORs were 2.17 and 1.21 for having increased/persistently high ba-PWV, respectively. Additionally, HbA1c variability (CV, VIM, SV) was significantly associated with aortic stiffness progression, with ORs ranging from 1.20 to 1.24. Cross-tabulation analysis indicated that the third tertile of the HbA1c mean and VIM conferred a 78% (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.23-2.58) higher odds of aortic stiffness progression. Sensitivity analysis demonstrated that the SD of HbA1c and the highest HbA1c variability score (HVS) were significantly associated with the adverse outcomes independent of the mean of HbA1c during the follow-up.

CONCLUSIONS

Long-term visit-to-visit HbA1c variability was independently associated with aortic stiffness progression, suggesting that HbA1c variability was a strong predictor of subclinical atherosclerosis in T2D participants.

Association of the time course of Chinese visceral adiposity index accumulation with cardiovascular events in patients with hypertension

BACKGROUND

The Chinese visceral adiposity index (CVAI), a simple surrogate measure of visceral fat, is significantly associated with cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk in the general population. This study aimed to evaluate the association of cumulative CVAI (cumCVAI) exposure and its accumulation time course with CVD risk among patients with hypertension.

METHODS

This prospective study involved 15,350 patients with hypertension from the Kailuan Study who were evaluated at least three times in the observation period of 2006 to 2014 (2006-2007, 2010-2011, and 2014-2015) and who were free of myocardial infarction and stroke before 2014. The cumCVAI was calculated as the weighted sum of the mean CVAI for each time interval (value × time). The time course of CVAI accumulation was categorized by splitting the overall accumulation into early (cumCVAI_06 - 10) and late (cumCVAI_10 - 14) accumulation, or the slope of CVAI versus time from 2006 to 2014 into positive and negative.

RESULTS

During the 6.59-year follow-up period, 1,184 new-onset CVD events were recorded. After adjusting for confounding variables, the hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for CVD were 1.35 (1.13-1.61) in the highest quartile of cumCVAI, 1.35 (1.14-1.61) in the highest quartile of the time-weighted average CVAI, 1.26 (1.12-1.43) in those with a cumulative burden > 0, and 1.43 (1.14-1.78) for the group with a 10-year exposure duration. When considering the time course of CVAI accumulation, the HR (95% CI) for CVD was 1.33 (1.11-1.59) for early cumCVAI. When considering the combined effect of cumCVAI accumulation and its time course, the HR (95% CI) for CVD was 1.22 (1.03-1.46) for cumCVAI ≥ median with a positive slope.

CONCLUSIONS

In this study, incident CVD risk depended on both long-term high cumCVAI exposure and the duration of high CVAI exposure among patients with hypertension. Early CVAI accumulation resulted in a greater risk increase than later CVAI accumulation, emphasizing the importance of optimal CVAI control in early life.

Association of baseline Life's Essential 8 score and trajectories with carotid intima-media thickness

Objective

We aimed to examine the association between the baseline Life's Essential 8 (LE8) score and LE8 score trajectories with the continuous carotid intima-media thickness (cIMT) as well as the risk of high cIMT.

Methods

The Kailuan study has been an ongoing prospective cohort study since 2006. A total of 12,980 participants who completed the first physical examination and cIMT detection at follow-up without a history of CVD and missing data on the component of LE8 metrics in or before 2006 were finally included in the analysis. The LE8 score trajectories were developed from 2006 to 2010 using trajectory modeling of the SAS procedure Proc Traj. The measurement and result review of the cIMT were performed by specialized sonographers using standardized methods. According to quintiles of baseline LE8 score, participants were categorized into five groups: Q1, Q2, Q3, Q4, and Q5. Similarly, based on their LE8 score trajectories, they were classified into four groups: very low-stable group, low-stable group, median-stable group, and high-stable group. In addition to continuous cIMT measurement, we determined the high cIMT based on the age (by 5 years) and sex-specific 90th percentile cut point. To address aims 1 and 2, the association between baseline/trajectory groups and continuous cIMT/high cIMT was assessed by using SAS proc genmod to calculate β, relative risk (RR), and 95% confidence intervals (CI).

Results

A total of 12,980 participants were finally included in aim 1, and 8,758 participants met aim 2 of the association between LE8 trajectories and cIMT/high cIMT. Compared with the Q1 group, the continuous cIMT for Q2, Q3, Q4, and Q5 groups were thinner; the other groups had a lower risk of high cIMT. For aim 2, the results indicated that compared with a very low-stable group, the cIMT for the low-stable group, the median-stable group, and the high-stable group were thinner (-0.07 mm [95% CI -0.10~0.04 mm], -0.10 mm [95% CI -0.13~-0.07 mm], -0.12 mm [95% CI -0.16~-0.09 mm]) and had a lower risk of high cIMT. The RR (95% CI) for high cIMT was 0.84 (0.75~0.93) in the low-stable group, 0.63 (0.57~0.70) in the median-stable group, 0.52 (0.45~0.59) in the high-stable group.

Conclusions

In summary, our study revealed that high baseline LE8 scores and LE8 score trajectories were associated with lower continuous cIMT and attenuated risk of high cIMT.

Association of cardiovascular health score trajectory and risk of subsequent cardiovascular disease in non-diabetic population: a cohort study

BACKGROUND

Diabetes is an important risk factor for cardiovascular disease (CVD), but in the non-diabetic population, high glucose values within the normal range are also positively associated with CVD risk. There is a lack of concern for people without diabetes and evidence is lacking regarding the association between changes in cardiovascular health score (CVHS) and CVD risk in the non-diabetic population.

METHODS

The current study included 37,970 non-diabetic participants free of CVD events in or before 2010 from the Kailuan Study and calculated CVHS according to the overall status of 7 cardiovascular health metrics between the 2006 and 2010 waves. Latent mixture models were used to explore the subgroups with different development trends included in the context of the Kailuan non-diabetic population and to identify the trajectory of each subgroup. The outcomes of the current study were CVD events, including myocardial infarction and stroke. CVHS trajectory was developed to predict subsequent CVD risk from 2010 to 2020. The Cox proportional hazard model was established to calculate the hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of CVD across different trajectory patterns.

RESULTS

Five distinct CVHS trajectory patterns were identified, including low-stable pattern (n = 2835), moderate-increasing pattern (n = 3492), moderate-decreasing pattern (n = 7526), high-stable I pattern (n = 17,135), and high-stable II pattern (n = 6982). Compared with the low-stable pattern, participants with the high-stable II pattern had a lower subsequent risk of CVD (HR = 0.22, 95%CI = 0.18-0.28); In stratification analysis, the lower risk for CVD was observed in females (HR = 0.10, 95%CI = 0.05-0.23, P for interaction < 0.05) and those aged < 60 years (HR = 0.16, 95%CI = 0.11 to 0.22, P for interaction < 0.05).

CONCLUSIONS

CVHS trajectory patterns were associated with an altered CVD risk in the non-diabetic population. When stratified by age and sex, the association was stronger in young adults and females.

Association of Multitrajectories of Lipid Indices With Premature Cardiovascular Disease: A Cohort Study

Background The multitrajectory model can identify joint longitudinal patterns of different lipids simultaneously, which might help better understand the heterogeneous risk of premature cardiovascular disease (CVD) and facilitate targeted prevention programs. This study aimed to investigate the associations between multitrajectories of lipids with premature CVD. Methods and Results The study enrolled 78 526 participants from the Kailuan study, a prospective cohort study in Tangshan, China. Five distinct multitrajectories of triglyceride, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C), and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol over 6-year exposure were identified on the basis of Nagin's criteria, using group-based multitrajectory modeling. During a median follow-up of 6.75 years (507 645.94 person-years), 665 (0.85%) premature CVDs occurred. After adjustment for confounders, the highest risk of premature CVD was observed in group 4 (the highest and increasing triglyceride, optimal and decreasing LDL-C, low and decreasing high-density lipoprotein cholesterol) (hazard ratio [HR], 2.13 [95% CI, 1.36-3.32]), followed by group 5 (high and decreasing triglyceride, optimal and increasing LDL-C, low and decreasing high-density lipoprotein cholesterol) (HR, 2.07 [95% CI, 1.45-2.98]), and group 3 (optimal and increasing triglyceride, borderline high and increasing LDL-C, optimal and decreasing high-density lipoprotein cholesterol) (HR, 1.90 [95% CI, 1.32-2.73]). Conclusions Our results showed that the residual risk of premature CVD caused by increasing triglyceride levels remained high despite the fact that LDL-C levels were optimal or declining over time. These findings emphasized the importance of assessing the joint longitudinal patterns of lipids and undertaking potential interventions on triglyceride lowering to reduce the residual risk of premature CVD, even among individuals with optimal LDL-C levels.

Temporal relationship between hyperuricemia and hypertension and its impact on future risk of cardiovascular disease

BACKGROUND

Although hyperuricemia and hypertension are significantly correlated, their temporal relationship and whether this relationship is associated with risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) are largely unknown. This study aimed to examine temporal relationship between hyperuricemia and hypertension, and its association with future risk of CVD.

METHODS

This study included 60,285 participants from the Kailuan study. Measurement of serum uric acid (SUA), systolic and diastolic blood pressure (SBP and DBP) were obtained twice at 2006 (baseline) and 2010. Cross-lagged and mediation analysis were used to examine the temporal relationship between hyperuricemia and hypertension, and the association of this temporal relationship with CVD events risk after 2010.

RESULTS

After adjusting for covariates, the cross-lagged path coefficients (β1) from baseline SUA to follow-up SBP and DBP were significantly greatly than path coefficients (β2) from baseline SBP and DBP to follow-up SUA (β1=0.041 versus β2=0.003; Pdifference<0.0001 for SBP; β1=0.040 versus β2=0.000; Pdifference<0.0001 for DBP). The path coefficients from baseline SUA to follow-up SBP and DBP in group with incident CVD were significantly greatly than that in group without incident CVD (Pdifference of β1 in the two groups was 0.0018 for SBP and 0.0340 for DBP). Furthermore, SBP and DBP partially mediated the effect of SUA on incident CVD, the mediation effect was 57.64% for SBP and 46.27% for DBP. Similar mediated results were observed for stroke and myocardial infarction.

CONCLUSION

Increased SUA levels probably precede elevated BP, and BP partially mediates the pathway from SUA to incident CVD.

Association of trajectories of non-high-density lipoprotein cholesterol concentration with risk of cardiovascular disease: the Kailuan Study

OBJECTIVES

This study aimed to assess the association between longitudinal change in non-high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (non-HDL-C) and subsequent cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk.

DESIGN

A retrospective study.

SETTING

Data were obtained from the Kailuan Study, a dynamic cohort study initiated in 2006 in Tangshan, China.

PARTICIPANTS

The current study included 41 085 participants (mean age 53.9±11.6 years) free of CVD events in or before 2012. The non-HDL-C trajectory was developed according to the repeated measurement during 2006-2012 surveys to predict the CVD risk from 2012 to 2020.

PRIMARY OUTCOME MEASURES

CVD events included myocardial infarction and stroke.

RESULTS

3 discrete non-HDL-C trajectories were identified: low-increasing (n=20 038), moderate-increasing (n=17 987) and high-increasing (n=3060). During 8 years of follow-up, 1797 CVD events were documented. Relative to the low-increasing pattern, adjusted HRs were 1.25 (95% CI: 1.13 to 1.38) for the moderate-increasing pattern and 1.46 (95% CI: 1.24 to 1.71) for the high-increasing pattern after adjustment for potential confounders such as age, sex, education background, smoking status, drinking status, physical activity, body mass index, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, hypertension, diabetes and lipid-lowering medications.

CONCLUSIONS

Changes in non-HDL-C were significantly associated with subsequent risk of CVD events, and participants with a high-increasing pattern had a higher CVD risk. Long-term monitoring of non-HDL-C could be useful to improve the prediction of CVD risk.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

ChiCTR-TNC-1100148.

Effect of body mass index trajectory on lifetime risk of cardiovascular disease in a Chinese population: A cohort study

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

The longitudinal trajectories of body mass index (BMI) can reflect the pattern of BMI changes. Lifetime risk quantifies the cumulative risk of developing a disease over the remaining life of a person. We aimed to identify the trajectory of BMI and explore its association with cardiovascular disease (CVD) in the Chinese population.

METHODS AND RESULTS

A total of 68,603 participants with a mean age of 55.46 years were included from the Kailuan cohort in Tangshan, China, who were free of CVD and cancer and with repeated measurements of BMI from 2006 to 2010. A latent mixture model was used to identify BMI trajectories. An improved Kaplan-Meier estimator was used to predict the lifetime risk of CVD according to BMI trajectories. During a median follow-up of 7.0 years, 3325 participants developed CVD. Five BMI trajectories were identified at three index ages (35, 45, and 55) respectively. For index age 35 years, compared with the stable low-normal weight group (22.7% [95% CI, 20.0%-25.4%]), the stable high-normal weight (27.6% [25.6%-29.5%]), stable overweight (29.4% [27.4%-31.4%]), stable-low obesity (32.8% [30.0%-35.5%]), and stable-high obesity (38.9% [33.3%-44.5%]) groups had a higher lifetime risk of CVD (P < 0.05). We observed similar patterns for stroke and myocardial infarction. Similarly, the lifetime risk of CVD was higher in the long-term overweight and obese groups at 45 and 55 index ages.

CONCLUSIONS

Long-term overweight and obesity were associated with an increased lifetime risk of CVD. Our findings could assist in predicting the population burden of CVD.

Association of fasting plasma glucose trajectory with lifetime risk of cardiovascular disease

BACKGROUND

Few studies have used multiple measurements of fasting plasma glucose (FPG) to examine the impact of long-term FPG trajectory patterns on lifetime risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD). We aimed to identify the long-term patterns in FPG trajectories and to estimate the lifetime risk of CVD according to FPG trajectories.

METHODS

Individuals free of CVD at index ages 35 (n = 72,324), 45 (n = 62,049), and 55 (n = 38,113) years were included. FPG concentrations were measured in 2006, 2008, and 2010. The FPG trajectories were identified by latent mixture modeling. The modified Kaplan-Meier method was used to calculate lifetime risk of CVD.

RESULTS

We identified five distinct FPG trajectories and named them according to FPG range and changing pattern over time: low-stable, moderate-stable, moderate-increasing, elevated-decreasing, and elevated-stable. At index age 35 years, we documented 3110 CVD events in men during 371,219 person-years of follow-up and 357 CVD events in women during 107,447 person-years of follow-up. Among all participants, the elevated-stable FPG pattern experienced the highest lifetime risk of CVD (44.8%, 95% CI: 37.8-51.9%), low-stable pattern was lowest (24.3%, 95% CI: 23.3-25.2%). At index age 55 years, although the elevated-stable and elevated-decreasing FPG patterns had similar original FPG concentrations, individuals with elevated-decreasing pattern (30.0%, 95% CI: 23.9-36.1%) had approximately one-third less lifetime risk of CVD than those with elevated-stable pattern (43.6%, 95% CI: 31.8-55.3%).

CONCLUSIONS

FPG trajectories were significantly associated with the lifetime risk of CVD. Both decrease in FPG over time and consistently lower FPG over 4 years were associated with lower lifetime risk of CVD.