Toscana, West Nile, Usutu and tick-borne encephalitis viruses: external quality assessment for molecular detection of emerging neurotropic viruses in Europe, 2017

Multi-antigen serology and a diagnostic algorithm for the detection of arbovirus infections as novel tools for arbovirus preparedness in southeast Europe (MERMAIDS-ARBO): a prospective observational study

BACKGROUND

Arboviruses are increasingly affecting Europe, partly due to the effects of climate change. This increase in range and impact emphasises the need to improve preparedness for emerging arboviral infections that often co-circulate and might have overlapping clinical syndromes. We aimed to strengthen surveillance networks for four clinically relevant arboviruses in southeast Europe.

METHODS

This study reports an in-depth analysis of the MERMAIDS-ARBO prospective observational study in adults (ie, aged ≥18 years) hospitalised with an arbovirus-compatible disease syndrome in 21 hospitals in seven countries in southeast Europe over four arbovirus seasons (May 1-Oct 31, 2016-19) to obtain arbovirus prevalence outcomes. The main objectives of the MERMAIDS-ARBO study, describing the clinical management and outcomes of four arboviruses endemic to southeast Europe, including Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever virus (CCHFV), tick-borne encephalitis virus (TBEV), Toscana virus, and West Nile virus (WNV), are reported elsewhere. In this analysis, given the challenges associated with arbovirus diagnostics, we developed a diagnostic algorithm accounting for serology outcomes and sample timing to study arbovirus prevalence in southeast Europe. Serum samples were collected on days 0, 7, 28, and 60 after hospital admission and tested for anti-CCHFV IgG and IgM antibodies with ELISAs (confirmed with an indirect immunofluorescence test) and for IgG and IgM antibodies specific to TBEV, Toscana virus, and WNV with custom-printed protein microarrays (confirmed with virus neutralisation tests). All acute-phase samples were tested by PCR for all four viruses. Descriptive analyses were performed for virus-reactive cases by geography and year, and possible factors (eg, age, sex, and insect bites) associated with virus reactivity were assessed.

FINDINGS

Of 2896 individuals screened, 913 were eligible for inclusion, of whom 863 (514 men, 332 women, and 17 unknown) had samples sent to the study reference laboratories and were included in molecular and serological analyses. Some individuals had insufficient clinical data to be included in the clinical analysis, but met the eligibility criteria for and were included here. Serum sampling was incomplete (eg, samples missing from one or more timepoints or no data on time since symptom onset) for 602 (70%) patients, and the timing of collection was often heterogeneous after symptom onset up to 40 days (average median delay of 5-6 days across all timepoints), affecting the ability to diagnose arbovirus infection by serology. By use of an interpretation table incorporating timing and completeness of sampling, one (<1%) participant had a confirmed recent infection with CCHFV, ten (1%) with TBEV, 40 (5%) with Toscana virus, and 52 (6%) with WNV. Most acute confirmed infections of Toscana virus were found in Albania (25 [63%] of 40), whereas WNV was primarily identified in Romania (36 [69%] of 52). Albania also had the highest overall Toscana virus seropositivity (168 [60%] of 282), mainly explained by patients confirmed to be exposed or previously exposed (104 [62%] of 168). Patients without antibodies to WNV or Toscana virus were significantly younger than patients with antibodies (mean difference -8·48 years [95% CI -12·31 to -4·64] for WNV, and -6·97 years [-9·59 to -4·35] for Toscana virus). We found higher odds of Toscana virus reactivity in men (odds ratio 1·56 [95% CI 1·15 to 2·11]; p=0·0055), WNV reactivity with mosquito bites versus no mosquito bites (2·47 [1·54 to 3·97]; p=0·0002), and TBEV reactivity with tick bites versus no tick bites (2·21 [1·19 to 4·11]; p=0·018).

INTERPRETATION

This study shows that despite incomplete and heterogeneous data, differential diagnosis of suspected arbovirus infections is possible, and the diagnostic interpretation algorithm we propose could potentially be used to strengthen routine diagnostics in clinical settings in areas at risk for arboviral diseases. Our data highlight potential hotspots for arbovirus surveillance and risk factors associated with these particular arbovirus infections.

FUNDING

European Commission and Versatile Emerging infectious disease Observatory.

TRANSLATIONS

For the Greek, Albanian, Romanian, Bosnian, Serbian, and Croatian translation of the summary see Supplementary Materials section.

Prevalence of Toscana Virus Antibodies in Residents of Bulgaria: A Nationwide Study Following the Pandemic of COVID-19

Introduction: Toscana virus (TOSV) is an arthropod-borne virus transmitted by sandflies and is mainly found in countries around the Mediterranean basin. In this article, we present the findings of a seroprevalence study on TOSV in Bulgaria. We aim to assess the current epidemiological situation regarding TOSV in the country and raise clinical awareness. Methods: Serum samples (n = 1892) were collected in December 2023. Serological tests were performed using a commercial anti-TOSV ELISA kit. Results: Specific immunoglobulin G (IgG) antibodies were detected in 6.4% (121/1892) of the participants. A significantly higher seropositivity rate was found in the age group over 65 years compared with the age groups 18-29 and 40-64 (11.8% vs. 3.9% vs. 3.4%), as well as in males compared with females (8.0% vs. 5.3%). The seroprevalence rates in districts ranged from 0% to 18.5%. Higher seropositivity was found in the southern and northern regions. Conclusions: The seroprevalence rate of TOSV in Bulgaria, found in this study, is a significant decrease compared with the seropositivity rate of 24.5% reported in the country in 2018. The reasons for this are unknown and could possibly be related to the COVID-19 pandemic and the constantly changing environmental conditions. There is also a possibility that the higher seropositivity detected in 2018 together with the rise in clinical cases reported from endemic countries around that time might have been due to an unrecognized TOSV outbreak taking place in this period. Continued clinical awareness and surveillance are necessary for recognition and management of potential cases of TOSV neuroinfection, especially during summer.

Human neuroinvasive Toscana virus infections in Italy from 2016 to 2023: Increased incidence in 2022 and 2023

BackgroundToscana virus (TOSV) is transmitted to humans through bites of infected sand flies. Neuroinvasive TOSV infections are leading causes of meningitis/encephalitis in southern Europe and notifiable in Italy since 2016. In 2022-23, Italy experienced extreme climate anomalies and a concomitant increase in mosquito and tick-borne disease transmission.AimTo identify the spatiotemporal distribution and risk groups of neuroinvasive TOSV infections in Italy in 2022-23 vs 2016-21.MethodsWe retrospectively described all autochthonous, laboratory-confirmed neuroinvasive TOSV cases notified to the national surveillance system in 2016-23 using frequencies, proportions, incidences and incidence risk ratios (IRRs) with 95% CIs, stratified by year, sex, age, region/autonomous province (AP) of infection/exposure and infection/exposure municipality by urbanisation level.ResultsIn 2022-23, 276 cases were notified (average annual incidence: 2.34/1,000,000 population) vs 331 cases in 2016-21 (0.92/1,000,000), with increased incidence extending into September. In 2022-23, infections were acquired in 12/21 regions/APs, predominantly in Emilia Romagna (57.6%; 159/276) as in 2016-21, including four regions/APs with no local infections in 2016-21. Similar to 2016-21, during 2022-23 residence in rural municipalities (vs urban), male sex, working age (19-67 years) and age > 67 years (vs ≤ 18 years) were identified as risk factors with IRRs of 2.89 (95% CI: 2.01-4.17), 2.17 (95% CI: 1.66-2.84), 5.31 (95% CI: 2.81-10.0) and 5.06 (95% CI: 2.59-9.86), respectively.ConclusionItaly experienced a nearly 2.6-fold increase in neuroinvasive TOSV incidence in 2022-23 vs 2016-21. Raising public awareness on risk factors and personal protection measures may enhance prevention efforts.

Dynamics of community-acquired meningitis syndrome outbreaks in southern France

In southern France, cases of community-acquired meningitis syndrome (CAM) are typically clustered as outbreaks with determinants which remain unknown. This 61-month retrospective investigation in Nîmes and Marseille university hospital laboratories, yielded 2,209/20,779 (10.63%) documented CAM cases caused by 62 different micro-organisms, represented by seasonal viral etiologies (78.8%), including Enterovirus, Herpes Simplex Virus (HSV), and Varicella-Zoster Virus (VZV; 1,620/2,209 = 73.4%). Multi correspondence analysis revealed an association of infection with age and sex, with the risk of infection being relatively higher in young men, as confirmed by Fisher's exact test (p < 10^-3). Bacterial meningitis accounted for 20% of cases, mostly caused by Streptococcus pneumoniae (27.4% of cases), Neisseria meningitidis (12.5%), and Haemophilus influenzae (9.5%) with bacteria/virus coinfection (0.9%), and only six cases of documented fungal meningitis. In total, 62.6% of cases, of which 88.7% were undocumented, arose from 10 outbreaks. 33.2% of undocumented cases were aged >60 years compared to 19.2% of documented cases (p < 0.001), and viral infection was more common in the summer (87.5%) compared to other seasons (72.3%; p < 0.001). Outbreaks most often started in Nîmes and moved eastward toward Marseille at a speed of ~9 km/day, and these dynamics significantly correlated with atmospheric temperature, especially during summer outbreaks. In particular, the incidence of Enterovirus-driven outbreaks correlated with temperature, revealing correlation coefficients of 0.64 in Nîmes and 0.72 in Marseille, and its occurrence in Marseille lagged that in Nîmes by 1-2 weeks. Tracing the dynamics of CAM outbreak during this retrospective investigation in southern France yielded a speed of displacement that correlated with the variation in temperature between both cities, and these results provide clues for the next occurrence of undocumented outbreaks.

Determinants of public interest in emerging and re-emerging arboviral diseases in Europe: A spatio-temporal analysis of cross-sectional time series data

Introduction

Climate change, the resulting geographical expansion of arthropod disease vectors, and increasing international mobility are contributing to the emergence of arboviral diseases in Europe. Public interest in vector-borne diseases and a subsequent gain of awareness and knowledge are essential to control outbreaks but had not yet been systematically assessed prior to this analysis.

Methods

Trends, patterns, and determinants of public interest in six emerging and re-emerging arboviral diseases were assessed in a spatio-temporal analysis of Google Trends data from 30 European countries between 2008 and 2020 while controlling for potential confounders.

Results

Only public interest in endemic arboviral diseases in Europe displays seasonal patterns and has been increasing since 2008, while no significant patterns or trends could be determined for public interest in non-endemic diseases. The main drivers for public interest in all six analysed arboviral diseases are reported case rates, and public interest drops rapidly as soon as cases decline. For Germany, the correlation of public interest and the geographical distribution of locally-acquired reported cases of endemic arboviral infections could be shown on a sub-country level.

Conclusions

The results of the analysis indicate that public interest in arboviral diseases in Europe is heavily impacted by perceived susceptibility on a temporal as well as on a spatial level. This result may be crucial for the design of future public health interventions to alert the public to the increasing risk of infection with arboviral diseases.

Assessment of West Nile Virus Lineage 2 Dynamics in Greece and Future Implications

The emergence of West Nile Virus lineage 2 (WNV-2) has contributed to multiple major human outbreaks in Greece since 2010. Studies to date investigating biological and environmental factors that contribute to West Nile Virus (WNV) transmission have resulted in complex statistical models. We sought to examine open publicly available data to ascertain if a predictive risk assessment could be employed for WNV-2 in Greece. Based on accessible data, factors such as precipitation, temperature, and range of avian host species did not yield conclusive outcomes. However, by measuring the average rate of temperature change leading up to peak caseloads, we found a predictive characteristic to the timing of outbreaks. Detailed evolutionary studies revealed possible multiple introductions of WNV-2 in Europe, and that Greece acts through a source-sink inversion model, thereby allowing continued reseeding of WNV transmission each year by overwintering the Culex pipiens mosquito vector. Greece has proven an excellent model in WNV surveillance and has demonstrated the importance of rapid reporting for proper preparedness and response to vector-borne diseases.

Evaluation of West Nile Virus Diagnostic Capacities in Veterinary Laboratories of the Mediterranean and Black Sea Regions

The increasing incidence of West Nile virus (WNV) in the Euro-Mediterranean area warrants the implementation of effective surveillance programs in animals. A crucial step in the fight against the disease is the evaluation of the capacity of the veterinary labs to accurately detect the infection in animal populations. In this context, the animal virology network of the MediLabSecure project organized an external quality assessment (EQA) to evaluate the WNV molecular and serological diagnostic capacities of beneficiary veterinary labs. Laboratories from 17 Mediterranean and Black Sea countries participated. The results of the triplex real time RT-PCR for simultaneous detection and differentiation of WNV lineage 1 (L1), lineage 2 (L2) and Usutu virus (USUV) were highly satisfactory, especially for L1 and L2, with detection rates of 97.9% and 100%, respectively. For USUV, 75% of the labs reported correct results. More limitations were observed for the generic detection of flaviviruses using conventional reverse-transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR), since only 46.1% reported correct results in the whole panel. As regards the serological panel, the results were excellent for the generic detection of WNV antibodies. More variability was observed for the specific detection of IgM antibodies with a higher percentage of incorrect results mainly in samples with low titers. This EQA provides a good overview of the WNV (and USUV) diagnostic performance of the involved veterinary labs and demonstrates that the implemented training program was successful in upgrading their diagnostic capacities.