Increased Invasive Pneumococcal Disease, North East England, UK

Temporal progression of the distribution of Streptococcus pneumoniae serotypes causing invasive pneumococcal disease in Galicia (Spain) and its relationship with resistance to antibiotics (period 2011-2021)

INTRODUCTION

Streptococcus pneumoniae causes serious diseases in the susceptible population. The 13-valent pneumococci conjugate vaccine (PCV13) was included in the children's calendar in 2011. The objective of the study was to analyze the evolution of pneumococcal serotypes and their resistance after PCV13.

METHODS

This study included the pneumococci serotyped in Galicia in 2011-2021. Antibiotic susceptibility was analyzed following EUCAST criteria. The data was analyzed in 3 sub-periods: initial (2011-2013), middle (2014-2017) and final (2018-2021). The prevalence of serotypes and their percentage of resistance to the most representative antibiotics were calculated.

RESULTS

A total of 2.869 isolates were included. Initially, 42.7% isolates presented capsular types included in PCV13, compared to 15.4% at the end. Those included in PCV20 and not in PCV13 and PCV15 were 12.5% at baseline and 41.3% at the end; 26.4% of the isolates throughout the study had serotypes not included in any vaccine. The prevalence of serotype 8 multiplied almost by 8 and that of 12F tripled. The 19A serotype was initially the most resistant, while the resistance of serotypes 11A and 15A increased throughout the study.

CONCLUSIONS

The introduction of PCV13 in the pediatric population determined a change in pneumococcal serotypes towards those included in PCV20 and those not included in any vaccine. Serotype 19A was initially the most resistant and the 15A, not included in any vaccine, deserves special follow-up. Serotype 8, which increased the most, did not show remarkable resistance.

Invasive Pneumococcal Disease and Potential Impact of Pneumococcal Conjugate Vaccines Among Adults, Including Persons Experiencing Homelessness-Alaska, 2011-2020

BACKGROUND

Adults aged ≥65 years, adults with certain underlying medical conditions, and persons experiencing homelessness are at increased risk for invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD). Two new pneumococcal conjugate vaccines, 15-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV15) and 20-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV20), were recently approved for use in US adults. We describe the epidemiology of IPD among Alaska adults and estimate the proportion of IPD cases potentially preventable by new vaccines.

METHODS

We used statewide, laboratory-based surveillance data to calculate and compare IPD incidence rates and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) among Alaska adults aged ≥18 years during 2011-2020 and estimate the proportion of IPD cases that were caused by serotypes in PCV15 and PCV20.

RESULTS

During 2011-2020, 1164 IPD cases were reported among Alaska adults for an average annual incidence of 21.3 cases per 100 000 adults per year (95% CI, 20.1-22.5). Incidence increased significantly during the study period (P < .01). IPD incidence among Alaska Native adults was 4.7 times higher than among non-Alaska Native adults (95% CI, 4.2-5.2). Among adults experiencing homelessness in Anchorage, IPD incidence was 72 times higher than in the general adult population (95% CI, 59-89). Overall, 1032 (89%) Alaska adults with IPD had an indication for pneumococcal vaccine according to updated vaccination guidelines; 456 (39%) and 700 (60%) cases were caused by serotypes in PCV15 and PCV20, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Use of PCV15 and PCV20 could substantially reduce IPD among adults in Alaska, including Alaska Native adults and adults experiencing homelessness.

Parapneumonic effusions related to Streptococcus pneumoniae: serotype and disease severity trends from 2006 to 2018 in Bristol, UK

RATIONALE

Streptococcus pneumoniae epidemiology is changing in response to vaccination and some data suggest that empyema incidence is increasing. However, differences exist between the UK and US studies. We describe trends in the clinical phenotype of adult pneumococcal pleural infection, including simple parapneumonic effusions (SPE) in the pneumococcal conjugate vaccination (PCV) era.

OBJECTIVES

To determine whether there were differences in pneumococcal disease presentation and severity associated with pleural infection.

METHODS

A retrospective cohort study, all adults ≥16 years admitted to three large UK hospitals, 2006-2018 with pneumococcal disease. 2477 invasive pneumococcal cases were identified: 459 SPE and 100 pleural infection cases. Medical records were reviewed for each clinical episode. Serotype data were obtained from the UK Health Security Agency national reference laboratory.

RESULTS

Incidence increased over time, including non-PCV-serotype disease. PCV7-serotype disease declined following paediatric PCV7 introduction, but the effect of PCV13 was less apparent as disease caused by the additional six serotypes plateaued with serotypes 1 and 3 causing such parapneumonic effusions from 2011 onwards.Patients with pleural infection had a median survival 468 days (95% CI 340 to 590) vs 286 days (95% CI 274 to 335) in those with SPE. Pleural infection associated with frank pus had lower 90-day mortality than pleural infection without pus (0% vs 29%, p<0.0001). 90-day mortality could be predicted by baseline increased RAPID (Renal, Age, Purulence, Infection source, and Dietary factors) score (HR 15.01, 95% CI 1.24 to 40.06, p=0.049).

CONCLUSIONS

Pneumococcal infection continues to cause severe disease despite the introduction of PCVs. The predominance of serotype 1 and 3 in this adult UK cohort is in keeping with previous studies in paediatric and non-UK studies. Rising non-PCV serotype disease and limited impact of PCV13 on cases caused by serotypes 1 and 3 offset the reductions in adult pneumococcal parapneumonic effusion disease burden observed following the introduction of the childhood PCV7 programme.

Streptococcus Pneumoniae septic arthritis in adults in Bristol and Bath, United Kingdom, 2006-2018: a 13-year retrospective observational cohort study

Few studies on adult pneumococcal septic arthritis are sufficiently large enough to assess both epidemiological trends following routine pneumococcal immunization and clinical disease. With major shifts in serotypes causing invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD), we wanted to determine the clinical phenotype of adult septic arthritis caused by Streptococcus pneumoniae. We conducted a retrospective cohort study of pneumococcal infections in Bristol and Bath, UK, 2006–2018. We defined pneumococcal septic arthritis as adults with clinically-confirmed septic arthritis, with pneumococcus isolated from sterile-site culture or urinary antigen test positivity. Clinical records were reviewed for each patient in the cohort. Septic arthritis accounted for 1.7% of all IPD cases. 45 cases of adult pneumococcal septic arthritis occurred, with disease typically affecting older adults and those with underlying comorbidity. 67% patients had another focus of infection during their illness. 66% patients required increased care on discharge and 43% had reduced range of movement. In-hospital case fatality rate was 6.7%. One-year patient mortality was 31%. Currently most cases of adult pneumococcal septic arthritis are due to non-PCV13 serotypes which are associated with more severe disease. Non-PCV-13 serotypes had higher prevalence of concomitant pneumococcal infection at another site (73.7% versus 36.6%), increased intensive care or high-dependency unit requirement (32.4% versus 0%), and increased inpatient and 1-year case fatality rate (8.8% versus 0%, and 32.4% versus 27.4% respectively) compared to PCV-13 serotypes. Pneumococcal septic arthritis remains a small proportion of IPD. However, there is significant associated morbidity and mortality, and pneumococcal septic arthritis requires monitoring in coming years.

Pneumococcal and Influenza Vaccination Rates and Pneumococcal Invasive Disease Rates Set Geographical and Ethnic Population Susceptibility to Serious COVID-19 Cases and Deaths

This study examines the relationship of pneumococcal vaccination rates, influenza, measles-mumps-rubella (MMR) diphtheria-tetanus-pertussis vaccinations (DTP), polio, Haemophilus influenzae type B (Hib), and Bacillus Calmette-Guerin (tuberculosis) vaccination rates to COVID-19 case and death rates for 51 nations that have high rates of COVID-19 testing and for which nearly complete childhood, at-risk adult and elderly pneumococcal vaccination data were available. The study is unique in a large number of nations examined, the range of vaccine controls, in testing effects of combinations of vaccinations, and in examining the relationship of COVID-19 and vaccination rates to invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD). Analysis of Italian regions and the states of the United States were also performed. Significant positive correlations were found between IPD (but not lower respiratory infections) and COVID-19 rates, while significant negative correlations were found between pneumococcal vaccination and COVID-19 rates. Influenza and MMR vaccination rates were negatively correlated with lower respiratory infection (LRI) rates and may synergize with pneumococcal vaccination rates to protect against COVID-19. Pneumococcal and influenza vaccination rates were independent of other vaccination rates. These results suggest that endemic rates of bacterial pneumonias, for which pneumococci are a sentinel, may set regional and national susceptibility to severe COVID-19 disease and death.

Trends of Pediatric Bloodstream Infections in Stockholm, Sweden: A 20-year Retrospective Study

BACKGROUND

The etiology of bloodstream infections (BSIs) changes over time due to updated immunization programs, new antibiotic-use strategies, changes in patient mix and travel. Continuous surveillance can guide empiric therapy and identify targets for prevention.

METHOD

We conducted a descriptive retrospective analysis among children <18 years of age who were detected with BSI between July 1998 and June 2018 for changes in the incidence, risk factors, and etiology of BSI in a Swedish tertiary hospital (Karolinska University Hospital).

RESULTS

We evaluated 2079 episodes of BSI. During the study period, the incidence of BSI in children 0-17 years of age decreased (τ = -0.45, P = 0.016), which was most evident among children 3 months to 2 years of age (τ = -0.59, P = 0.0006) and in early neonatal period (0-7 days; τ = -0.44, P = 0.0069). These were explained by the reduced occurrence of Streptococcus pneumoniae in children 3 months to 2 years of age and Streptococcus agalactiae and Candida spp. in neonates. Staphylococcus aureus was the commonest pathogen, accounting for 31.6% of episodes. The proportion of hospital-acquired infection was higher in patients with underlying risk factors (47.6% vs. 2.6%). The etiology of hospital-acquired infection BSI was more diverse than that of community-acquired infections and was related to underlying risk factors. The crude mortality rate was 5.7%. For children admitted to the neonatal ward, the mortality was 17.6%, but declined (τ = -0.469, P = 0.004) over the study period.

CONCLUSIONS

There was a decreasing trend of pediatric BSI and mortality over last 20 years, which was associated with pneumococcal immunization and antimicrobial prophylaxis for high-risk patients.

Impact of the 13-Valent Pneumococcal Conjugate Vaccine Among Adults: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

A notable reduction of the pneumococcal disease burden among adults was observed after the introduction of a 7-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV7) in childhood immunization programs. In 2010, a 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV13) replaced PCV7 in many jurisdictions; a comparative assessment of PCV13's impact was missing. Our objective was to summarize the available data and assess the change in the incidence of invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) in adults after the introduction of PCV13 in childhood immunization programs.

METHODS

We conducted a systematic literature search from January 1946 to May 2017 of randomized, controlled trials and observational studies OBS reporting the incidence of IPD, non-invasive pneumococcal disease, hospitalizations, and mortality in adults for the periods before and after the introduction of PCV13. Incidence rate ratios (IRRs) were pooled across studies using restricted, maximum-likelihood, random-effects models.

RESULTS

From 3306 records,we included 29 OBS studies and 2033961 cases. Significantly lower IPD rates were seen after PCV13 introduction in adults aged <65 years (IRR 0.78, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.72-0.85) and those aged ≥65 years (IRR 0.86, 95% CI 0.81-0.91). Lower rates of IPD were seen with PCV7 (IRR 0.45, 95% CI 0.38-0.54) and PCV13 serotypes (IRR 0.60, 95% CI 0.54-0.68). A significantly higher IRR of 1.10 (95% CI 1.04-1.17) for non-vaccine serotypes was observed, especially among those aged 65 years and older (IRR 1.20, 95% CI 1.11-1.29).

CONCLUSIONS

PCV13 use in children had a moderate impact on reducing the overall and vaccine-type IPDs, but there was a significant increase in non-vaccine type IPDs among adults, especially in those over 65 years.

Impact of vaccination on invasive pneumococcal disease in Italy 2007-2017: surveillance challenges and epidemiological changes

Surveillance of new cases of invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) in Italy was started in 2007 by the Ministry of Health (MoH). In 2012, pneumococcal childhood vaccination was introduced at the national level and, in 2017, for citizens aged 65 years and over. We describe here IPD epidemiology in Italy over the past 10 years investigating the impact of the vaccine programme on disease burden. Reports of IPD cases, data on serotype and vaccination coverage (VC) data were obtained from MoH annual reports, for the period 2007-2017. IPD notification rate and proportion by year, region, age and serotype were calculated. In 2007, 525 cases were reported (rate 0.88/100 000), rising to 1703 cases (rate 2.82/100 000) in 2017. The distribution of IPD cases by age group over time registered the largest share among individuals aged 65 years and over. A decreasing trend in notification rate was observed among those aged 0-4 years. During the same period, the 24-month VC increased, ranging from 80.9% to 96.7% in 2017. Molecular data indicated re-emergence of PPSV23-specific serotypes and non-vaccine serotypes. We observed an increase in IPD notifications during 2007-2017, likely due to an improved surveillance system, at least in some regions, with the relative quota of IPD notifications decreasing among vaccinated children cohorts. Further strengthening of IPD surveillance system, including molecular and vaccine coverage data, would be needed to assess and inform pneumococcal vaccination strategies in Italy.

Discovery of 4-hydroxy-2-oxo-1,2-dihydroquinolines as potential inhibitors of Streptococcus pneumoniae, including drug-resistant strains

New therapies for treating drug-resistant pneumococcal infections are urgently needed. The novel scaffold 6-hydroxy-4-oxo-1,2-dihydro-4H-quinoline was shown to have similar efficacies against all three different serotypes of S. pneumoniae, ATCC 49617™ (19F), ATCC BAA-1663™ (15B), and ATCC 700904™ (19A), in a resazurin-based high-throughput screen using the Korea Chemical Bank library. Further studies to identify a new lead with this scaffold, including tricyclic pyrrolo[3,2,1-ij]quinolone and pyrido[3,2,1-ij]quinolone derivatives, led to the identification of 6d, 7d and 12a. Compound 6d (IC₅₀ = 0.92, 0.75, and 0.77 µM), 7d (IC₅₀ = 0.57, 0.66, and 0.38 µM) and 12a (IC₅₀ = 0.27, 1.03, and 0.62 µM) showed submicromolar IC₅₀ values against 19F, 15B, and 19A, respectively, and thus serve as a starting point for further optimization. While some of compounds in this series exhibited acceptable pharmacokinetic profiles in preliminary in vivo rat experiments, the most active compound 12a showed poor solubility and high plasma protein binding. Our current research efforts are focused on optimizing compounds to improve physicochemical properties as well as potency.

Decreasing case fatality rate following invasive pneumococcal disease, North East England, 2006-2016

Declining mortality following invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) has been observed concurrent with a reduced incidence due to effective pneumococcal conjugate vaccines. However, with IPD now increasing due to serotype replacement, we undertook a statistical analysis to estimate the trend in all-cause 30-day case fatality rate (CFR) in the North East of England (NEE) following IPD. Clinical, microbiological and demographic data were obtained for all laboratory-confirmed IPD cases (April 2006–March 2016) and the adjusted association between CFR and epidemiological year estimated using logistic regression. Of the 2510 episodes of IPD included in the analysis, 486 died within 30 days of IPD (CFR 19%). Increasing age, male sex, a diagnosis of septicaemia, being in ⩾1 clinical risk groups, alcohol abuse and individual serotypes were independently associated with increased CFR. A significant decline in CFR over time was observed following adjustment for these significant predictors (adjusted odds ratio 0.93, 95% confidence interval 0.89–0.98; P = 0.003). A small but significant decline in 30-day all-cause CFR following IPD has been observed in the NEE. Nonetheless, certain population groups remain at increased risk of dying following IPD. Despite the introduction of effective vaccines, further strategies to reduce the ongoing burden of mortality from IPD are needed.

Impact of pneumococcal conjugate vaccines on hospitalizations for pneumonia in the United States

INTRODUCTION

Pneumonia is one of the leading causes of morbidity and mortality among children and older adults. Pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs) were introduced into the US routine infant vaccination schedule leading to substantial reductions of invasive pneumococcal diseases (IPD). PCV introduction also led to reductions in all-cause pneumonia among US children, though the indirect impact of PCVs on pneumonia in adults is difficult to quantify, especially due to the recent US recommendation for direct PCV use in older adults. Areas covered: We described the existing evidence for both the direct and indirect impact of PCVs on pneumonia among children and adults in the US since PCV introduction. Expert commentary: The introduction of PCVs into the US routine infant vaccination schedule led to important reductions in the burden of IPD and non-invasive pneumonia among vaccinated and unvaccinated populations. The impact of direct vaccination of older adults in the US since 2014, though difficult to quantify, is currently being evaluated. As pneumonia remains one of the leading causes of morbidity and mortality in the US, future evaluations of the direct and indirect effects of current and expanded valency PCVs in the US population are needed.

Effectiveness and impact of the 10-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine, PHiD-CV: review of clinical trials and post-marketing experience

INTRODUCTION

Pneumococcal diseases (including septicemia, meningitis, pneumonia, and upper respiratory infections) constitute a major public health problem. The World Health Organization recommends pneumococcal conjugate vaccine immunization of young children worldwide.

AREAS COVERED

We reviewed evidence on the effects of the 10-valent pneumococcal non-typeable Haemophilus influenzae protein D conjugate vaccine (PHiD-CV), which is used in childhood immunization programs in over 45 countries or regions. The effectiveness of PHiD-CV against invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD), pneumonia, and acute otitis media was assessed. We also present its effect on pneumococcal nasopharyngeal carriage (NPC) and indirect effects (herd protection) among unvaccinated individuals.

EXPERT COMMENTARY

Results from randomized, double-blind trials and post-marketing studies in various countries provide evidence of the protective efficacy, effectiveness, and impact of PHiD-CV against pneumococcal diseases. Data from different geographic locations also show reductions in NPC of vaccine pneumococcal serotypes, laying the foundation for indirect protection against pneumococcal disease. In countries where PHiD-CV is included in childhood immunization programs, there are signs of herd protection for vaccine serotypes among unvaccinated individuals. Although increases in non-vaccine serotype IPD and NPC rates were observed, there was an overall reduction of pneumococcal disease.

Effect of childhood pneumococcal conjugate vaccination on invasive disease in older adults of 10 European countries: implications for adult vaccination

BACKGROUND

Pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs) have the potential to prevent pneumococcal disease through direct and indirect protection. This multicentre European study estimated the indirect effects of 5-year childhood PCV10 and/or PCV13 programmes on invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) in older adults across 13 sites in 10 European countries, to support decision-making on pneumococcal vaccination policies.

METHODS

For each site we calculated IPD incidence rate ratios (IRR) in people aged ≥65 years by serotype for each PCV10/13 year (2011-2015) compared with 2009 (pre-PCV10/13). We calculated pooled IRR and 95% CI using random-effects meta-analysis and PCV10/13 effect as (1 - IRR)*100.

RESULTS

After five PCV10/13 years, the incidence of IPD caused by all types, PCV7 and additional PCV13 serotypes declined 9% (95% CI -4% to 19%), 77% (95% CI 67% to 84%) and 38% (95% CI 19% to 53%), respectively, while the incidence of non-PCV13 serotypes increased 63% (95% CI 39% to 91%). The incidence of serotypes included in PCV13 and not in PCV10 decreased 37% (95% CI 22% to 50%) in six PCV13 sites and increased by 50% (95% CI -8% to 146%) in the four sites using PCV10 (alone or with PCV13). In 2015, PCV13 serotypes represented 20-29% and 32-53% of IPD cases in PCV13 and PCV10 sites, respectively.

CONCLUSION

Overall IPD incidence in older adults decreased moderately after five childhood PCV10/13 years in 13 European sites. Large declines in PCV10/13 serotype IPD, due to the indirect effect of childhood vaccination, were countered by increases in non-PCV13 IPD, but these declines varied according to the childhood vaccine used. Decision-making on pneumococcal vaccination for older adults must consider the indirect effects of childhood PCV programmes. Sustained monitoring of IPD epidemiology is imperative.

Overview of pneumococcal serotypes and genotypes causing diseases in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease in a Spanish hospital between 2013 and 2016

Background

Streptococcus pneumoniae is an important pathogen in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). We aimed at showing the recent changes in the epidemiology of pneumococcal diseases in patients with COPD, especially after the introduction of the 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV13).

Methods

From 2013 to 2016, strains causing invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD), non-bacteremic pneumococcal pneumonia (non-BPP), and acute exacerbation of COPD (AE-COPD) were prospectively included. Antimicrobial susceptibility testing, serotyping, and genotyping were analyzed.

Results

We collected 345 pneumococci from 286 COPD patients (57 IPD, 78 non-BPP, and 210 AE-COPD). The most frequent serotypes were serotypes 3 (14.0%), 8 (14.0%), and 12F (8.8%) in IPD; serotypes 3 (16.7%), 11A (9%), 9L/N (7.7%), and 23A (7.7%) in non-BPP; and serotypes 11A (11%), nontypeable (11%), and 6C (10%) in AE-COPD. Resistance rates were highest among AE-COPD strains. Penicillin resistance was associated with serotypes 11A (CC156) and 19A (CC320 and CC230). Compared with previous studies, fluoroquinolone resistance in AE-COPD increased (9.5%), PCV13 serotypes decreased (31.6%, 26.9%, and 16.7% for IPD, non-BPP, and AE-COPD, respectively), and serotype 11A-CC156 in AE-COPD and serotype 8 in IPD increased.

Conclusion

The epidemiology of pneumococcal disease in COPD changed after the introduction of PCV13 in children. Increases in the highly invasive serotype 8 among patients with IPD and in serotype 11A-CC156 among patients with AE-COPD could compromise the ability of current PCVs to prevent diseases. Vaccines with a greater coverage could improve the benefits of adult vaccination.

Should UK Pneumococcal Vaccine Eligibility Criteria Include Alcohol Dependency in Areas with High Alcohol-Related Mortality?

A recently reported steep increase in the incidence of invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) in adults in the North East of England was primarily associated with pneumococcal sero-types found in the 23-valent pneumococcal polysaccharide vaccine (PPSV23). This region also has one of the highest rates of alcohol-related premature mortality and morbidity in the UK. Given that alcohol dependence is long acknowledged as one of the strongest risk factors for IPD mortality, we feel there is an increasingly compelling case to look again at the divergence of UK vaccine guidance from that of the World Health Organisation and the Centre for Disease Control in the USA, in the non-inclusion of alcoholism as an indicator condition that would potentially benefit from receiving PPSV23 vaccine. Such a re-think would represent a responsible evaluation of vaccination guidance in the face of newly emerging epidemiological findings and would have the potential to save lives in a very marginalised and vulnerable section of the population. We propose therefore that alcohol dependency (now referred to as alcohol use disorder), should be re-considered an indicator condition for receiving pneumococcal vaccine in North East England, where mortality from pneumococcal disease has been rising and which already has an excessive burden of alcohol-related mortality.

Identification of Antipneumococcal Molecules Effective Against Different Streptococcus pneumoniae Serotypes Using a Resazurin-Based High-Throughput Screen

Streptococcus pneumoniae is a major human pathogen, causing around 1.6 million deaths worldwide each year. By optimizing a resazurin-based assay to detect S. pneumoniae growth in 384-well microplates, we developed a new high-throughput screening (HTS) system for the discovery of antipneumococcal molecules, which was unsuccessful using conventional absorbance measurements. Before applying our protocol to a large-scale screen, we validated the system through a pilot screen targeting about 7,800 bioactive molecules using three different S. pneumoniae serotypes. Primary screenings of a further 27,000 synthetic small molecules facilitated the identification of 3-acyl-2-phenylamino-1,4-dihydropquinolin-4-one (APDQ) derivatives that inhibited growth of S. pneumoniae with MIC₉₀ values <1 μM (0.03-0.81 μM). Five selected APDQ derivatives were also active against Staphylococcus aureus but neither Klebsiella pneumoniae nor Pseudomonas aeruginosa, suggesting that APDQ may act specifically against Gram-positive bacteria. Our results both validated and demonstrated the utility of the resazurin-based HTS system for the identification of new antipneumococcal molecules. Moreover, the identified new antipneumococcal molecules in this study may have potential to be further developed as new antibiotics.

Implications of asymptomatic carriers for infectious disease transmission and control

For infectious pathogens such as Staphylococcus aureus and Streptococcus pneumoniae, some hosts may carry the pathogen and transmit it to others, yet display no symptoms themselves. These asymptomatic carriers contribute to the spread of disease but go largely undetected and can therefore undermine efforts to control transmission. Understanding the natural history of carriage and its relationship to disease is important for the design of effective interventions to control transmission. Mathematical models of infectious diseases are frequently used to inform decisions about control and should therefore accurately capture the role played by asymptomatic carriers. In practice, incorporating asymptomatic carriers into models is challenging due to the sparsity of direct evidence. This absence of data leads to uncertainty in estimates of model parameters and, more fundamentally, in the selection of an appropriate model structure. To assess the implications of this uncertainty, we systematically reviewed published models of carriage and propose a new model of disease transmission with asymptomatic carriage. Analysis of our model shows how different assumptions about the role of asymptomatic carriers can lead to different conclusions about the transmission and control of disease. Critically, selecting an inappropriate model structure, even when parameters are correctly estimated, may lead to over- or under-estimates of intervention effectiveness. Our results provide a more complete understanding of the role of asymptomatic carriers in transmission and highlight the importance of accurately incorporating carriers into models used to make decisions about disease control.

Rapid increase in non-vaccine serotypes causing invasive pneumococcal disease in England and Wales, 2000-17: a prospective national observational cohort study

BACKGROUND

Pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs) have substantially reduced the incidence of invasive pneumococcal disease caused by vaccine serotypes; however, replacement disease with non-PCV serotypes remains a concern. We describe the population effect of the seven-valent and 13-valent PCVs (PCV7 and PCV13) on invasive pneumococcal disease in England and Wales.

METHODS

Using national invasive pneumococcal disease surveillance data for 2016/17, we compared incidence rate ratios (IRRs) against pre-PCV13 (2008/09-2009/10) and pre-PCV7 (2000/01-2005/06) baselines. We also estimated the number of invasive pneumococcal disease cases prevented since the introduction of PCVs.

FINDINGS

In 2016/17, overall invasive pneumococcal disease incidence (9·87 cases per 100 000; 5450 cases) across all age groups was 37% lower (IRR 0·63, 95% CI 0·60-0·65) than pre-PCV7 incidence (14·79 per 100 000; 8167 cases) and 7% lower (0·93; 0·89-0·97) than pre-PCV13 incidence (10·13 per 100 000; 5595 cases). By 2016/17, PCV7-type invasive pneumococcal disease incidence across all age groups had decreased by 97% (0·24 per 100 000; 0·03, 0·02-0·04) compared with the pre-PCV7 period, whereas additional PCV13-type invasive pneumococcal disease decreased by 64% (1·66 per 100 000; 0·36, 0·32-0·40) since the introduction of PCV13. Invasive pneumococcal disease incidence due to non-PCV13 serotypes doubled (7·97 per 100 000; 1·97, 1·86-2·09) since the introduction of PCV7, and accelerated since 2013/14-especially serotypes 8, 12F, and 9N, which were responsible for more than 40% of invasive pneumococcal disease cases by 2016/17. Invasive pneumococcal disease incidence in children younger than 5 years remained stable since 2013/14, with nearly all replacement disease occurring in adults. We estimated 38 366 invasive pneumococcal disease cases were prevented in the 11 years since the introduction of PCV7.

INTERPRETATION

Both PCV7 and PCV13 have had a major effect in reducing the burden of invasive pneumococcal disease in England and Wales; however, rapid increases in some non-PCV13 serotypes are compromising the benefits of the programme.

FUNDING

Public Health England.

Trends of invasive pneumococcal disease and its serotypes in the Autonomous Community of Madrid

INTRODUCTION

Streptococcus pneumoniae is an important cause of morbidity. Vaccination is the most effective measure to prevent it. The aim of this study is to analyse the evolution of invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD).

MATERIAL AND METHODS

Observational study of IPD cases notified to the Epidemiological Surveillance Network of the Autonomous Community of Madrid between 2008 and 2015. The IPD case was defined as the disease caused by Streptococcus pneumoniae, with isolation and DNA or antigen detection, in samples from normally sterile sites. The isolated strains were sent to the Regional Public Health Laboratory for identification of the serotype. Serotypes were classified according to their inclusion in the 7-valent conjugate vaccine (PCV7), in the 13-valent vaccine, but not in the 7-valent vaccine (PCV13-additional) and not included in the 13-valent vaccine (non-PCV). The Incidence Rate Ratios (IRRs) were calculated comparing the 2011-2012 and 2013-2015 periods with the 2008-2010 period.

RESULTS

4,307 cases were reported. 86.6% were serotyped. The IRR of IPD was 0.67 and 0.67 for all serotypes; 0.43 and 0.45 for PCV7 serotypes; 0.46 and 0.25 for PCV13-additional serotypes, and 1.01 and 1.32 for non-PCV13 serotypes in the 2011-2012 and 2013-2015 periods. The incidence of serotypes 8, 9N, 10A, 23B, 24F and serogroup 33 increased significantly in the 2013-2015 period. Serotypes 15B and 24F accounted for 24% of non-PCV13 cases in children under 5years, serotypes 8 and 9N for 51% in the population aged 5 to 59years and serotypes 8 and 22F for 25% in the population aged over 59years.

CONCLUSIONS

The incidence of serotypes not included in conjugate vaccines has increased, especially in children under 5years, but the total incidence of IPD has decreased. It is important to continue with the epidemiological and microbiological surveillance programmes to assess the effect of vaccination on the incidence of IPD.