The load of amyloid-β oligomers is decreased in the cerebrospinal fluid of Alzheimer's disease patients

The shift to a proteinopenia paradigm in neurodegeneration

The toxic proteinopathy paradigm has defined neurodegenerative disorders for over a century. This gain-of-function (GOF) framework posited that proteins become toxic when turned into amyloids (pathology), predicting that lowering its levels would translate into clinical benefits. Genetic observations used to support a GOF framework are equally compatible with a loss-of-function (LOF) framework, as the soluble pool of proteins rendered unstable by these mutations (e.g., APP in Alzheimer's disease, SNCA in Parkinson's disease) aggregate, becoming depleted. In this review, we highlight misconceptions that have prevented LOF from gaining currency. Some of these misconceptions include no phenotype in knock-out animals (there is neurodegenerative phenotype in knock-out animals) and high levels of proteins in patients (patients have lower levels of the proteins involved in neurodegeneration than healthy age-matched controls). We also expose the internal contradictions within the GOF framework, namely that (1) pathology can have both pathogenic and protective roles; (2) the neuropathology gold standard for diagnosis can be present in normal individuals and absent in those affected; (3) oligomers are the toxic species even if they are ephemeral and decrease over time. We therefore advocate for a paradigm shift from proteinopathy (GOF) to proteinopenia (LOF) based on the universal depletion of soluble functional proteins in neurodegenerative diseases (low amyloid-β 42 in Alzheimer's disease, low α-synuclein in Parkinson's disease, and low tau in progressive supranuclear palsy) and supported by the confluence of biologic, thermodynamic, and evolutionary principles with proteins having evolved to perform a function, not to become toxic, and where protein depletion is consequential. Such shift to a Proteinopenia paradigm is necessary to examining the safety and efficacy of protein replacement strategies instead of perpetuating a therapeutic paradigm with further antiprotein permutations.

Proteins Do Not Replicate, They Precipitate: Phase Transition and Loss of Function Toxicity in Amyloid Pathologies

Protein aggregation into amyloid fibrils affects many proteins in a variety of diseases, including neurodegenerative disorders, diabetes, and cancer. Physicochemically, amyloid formation is a phase transition process, where soluble proteins are transformed into solid fibrils with the characteristic cross-β conformation responsible for their fibrillar morphology. This phase transition proceeds via an initial, rate-limiting nucleation step followed by rapid growth. Several well-defined nucleation pathways exist, including homogenous nucleation (HON), which proceeds spontaneously; heterogeneous nucleation (HEN), which is catalyzed by surfaces; and seeding via preformed nuclei. It has been hypothesized that amyloid aggregation represents a protein-only (nucleic-acid free) replication mechanism that involves transmission of structural information via conformational templating (the prion hypothesis). While the prion hypothesis still lacks mechanistic support, it is also incompatible with the fact that proteins can be induced to form amyloids in the absence of a proteinaceous species acting as a conformational template as in the case of HEN, which can be induced by lipid membranes (including viral envelopes) or polysaccharides. Additionally, while amyloids can be formed from any protein sequence and via different nucleation pathways, they invariably adopt the universal cross-β conformation; suggesting that such conformational change is a spontaneous folding event that is thermodynamically favorable under the conditions of supersaturation and phase transition and not a templated replication process. Finally, as the high stability of amyloids renders them relatively inert, toxicity in some amyloid pathologies might be more dependent on the loss of function from protein sequestration in the amyloid state rather than direct toxicity from the amyloid plaques themselves.

Lipocalin 2 as a link between ageing, risk factor conditions and age-related brain diseases

Chronic (neuro)inflammation plays an important role in many age-related central nervous system (CNS) diseases, including Alzheimer's disease, Parkinson's disease and vascular dementia. Inflammation also characterizes many conditions that form a risk factor for these CNS disorders, such as physical inactivity, obesity and cardiovascular disease. Lipocalin 2 (Lcn2) is an inflammatory protein shown to be involved in different age-related CNS diseases, as well as risk factor conditions thereof. Lcn2 expression is increased in the periphery and the brain in different age-related CNS diseases and also their risk factor conditions. Experimental studies indicate that Lcn2 contributes to various neuropathophysiological processes of age-related CNS diseases, including exacerbated neuroinflammation, cell death and iron dysregulation, which may negatively impact cognitive function. We hypothesize that increased Lcn2 levels as a result of age-related risk factor conditions may sensitize the brain and increase the risk to develop age-related CNS diseases. In this review we first provide a comprehensive overview of the known functions of Lcn2, and its effects in the CNS. Subsequently, this review explores Lcn2 as a potential (neuro)inflammatory link between different risk factor conditions and the development of age-related CNS disorders. Altogether, evidence convincingly indicates Lcn2 as a key constituent in ageing and age-related brain diseases.

Soluble Amyloid-β Consumption in Alzheimer's Disease

Brain proteins function in their soluble, native conformation and cease to function when transformed into insoluble aggregates, also known as amyloids. Biophysically, the soluble-to-insoluble phase transformation represents a process of polymerization, similar to crystallization, dependent on such extrinsic factors as concentration, pH, and a nucleation surface. The resulting cross-β conformation of the insoluble amyloid is markedly stable, making it an unlikely source of toxicity. The spread of brain amyloidosis can be fully explained by mechanisms of spontaneous or catalyzed polymerization and phase transformation instead of active replication, which is an enzyme- and energy-requiring process dependent on a specific nucleic acid code for the transfer of biological information with high fidelity. Early neuronal toxicity in Alzheimer's disease may therefore be mediated to a greater extent by a reduction in the pool of soluble, normal-functioning protein than its accumulation in the polymerized state. This alternative loss-of-function hypothesis of pathogenicity can be examined by assessing the clinical and neuroimaging effects of administering non-aggregating peptide analogs to replace soluble amyloid-β levels above the threshold below which neuronal toxicity may occur. Correcting the depletion of soluble amyloid-β, however, would only exemplify 'rescue medicine.' Precision medicine will necessitate identifying the pathogenic factors catalyzing the protein aggregation in each affected individual. Only then can we stratify patients for etiology-specific treatments and launch precision medicine for Alzheimer's disease and other neurodegenerative disorders.

Amyloid-β42/Neurogranin Ratio as a Potential Index for Cognitive Impairment in Parkinson's Disease

BACKGROUND

Synaptopathy is critical in pathophysiology of Parkinson's disease (PD). Cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) levels of neurogranin (NG) and amyloid-β42 (Aβ42) are considered markers of synaptic dysfunction in neurodegenerative diseases.

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the CSF synaptopathy-related biomarkers, especially the novel Aβ42/NG ratio, in PD, establishing possible associations with cognitive level and other clinical parameters.

METHODS

Levels of NG, Aβ42, amyloid-β40, total and phosphorylated tau, and Aβ42/NG ratio were measured in 30 PD patients and 30 controls and correlated with cognitive and motor parameters. The accuracy in distinguishing the cognitive status was determined.

RESULTS

NG and Aβ42 were significantly reduced in PD, with higher NG levels in patients with worse cognition. The Aβ42/NG ratio showed a direct correlation with Mini-Mental State Examination, independently from age and sex, and differentiated cognitively impaired patients with 92% sensitivity and 71.4% specificity, accuracy higher than NG alone. No correlations resulted with motor disturbances or therapy.

CONCLUSIONS

The novel Aβ42/NG ratio couples either presynaptic or postsynaptic markers of synaptic dysfunction, representing a potential global index of synaptopathy, useful to track cognitive functions in PD.

Interaction of Aβ42 with Membranes Triggers the Self-Assembly into Oligomers

The self-assembly of amyloid β (Aβ) proteins into oligomers is the major pathogenic event leading to Alzheimer’s disease (AD). Typical in vitro experiments require high protein concentrations, whereas the physiological concentration of Aβ is in the picomolar to low nanomolar range. This complicates the translation of results obtained in vitro to understanding the aggregation process in vivo. Here, we demonstrate that Aβ42 self-assembles into aggregates on membrane bilayers at low nanomolar concentrations - a pathway in which the membrane plays the role of a catalyst. Additionally, physiological ionic conditions (150 mM NaCl) significantly enhance on-membrane aggregation, leading to the rapid formation of oligomers. The self-assembly process is reversible, so assembled aggregates can dissociate from the membrane surface into the bulk solution to further participate in the aggregation process. Molecular dynamics simulations demonstrate that the transient membrane-Aβ interaction dramatically changes the protein conformation, facilitating the assembly of dimers. The results indicate peptide–membrane interaction is the critical step towards oligomer formation at physiologically low protein concentrations.

Aggregation States of Aβ1-40, Aβ1-42 and Aβp3-42 Amyloid Beta Peptides: A SANS Study

Aggregation states of amyloid beta peptides for amyloid beta A β 1 - 40 to A β 1 - 42 and A β p 3 - 42 are investigated through small angle neutron scattering (SANS). The knowledge of these small peptides and their aggregation state are of key importance for the comprehension of neurodegenerative diseases (e.g., Alzheimer's disease). The SANS technique allows to study the size and fractal nature of the monomers, oligomers and fibrils of the three different peptides. Results show that all the investigated peptides have monomers with a radius of gyration of the order of 10 Å, while the oligomers and fibrils display differences in size and aggregation ability, with A β p 3 - 42 showing larger oligomers. These properties are strictly related to the toxicity of the corresponding amyloid peptide and indeed to the development of the associated disease.

Cerebrospinal fluid biomarkers for understanding multiple aspects of Alzheimer's disease pathogenesis

Alzheimer's disease (AD) is a multifactorial age-related brain disease. Numerous pathological events run forth in the brain leading to AD. There is an initial long, dormant phase before the clinical symptoms become evident. There is a need to diagnose the disease at the preclinical stage since therapeutic interventions are most likely to be effective if initiated early. Undoubtedly, the core cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) biomarkers have a good diagnostic accuracy and have been used in clinical trials as end point measures. However, looking into the multifactorial nature of AD and the overlapping pathology with other forms of dementia, it is important to integrate the core CSF biomarkers with a broader panel of other biomarkers reflecting different aspects of pathology. The review is focused upon a panel of biomarkers that relate to different aspects of AD pathology, as well as various studies that have evaluated their diagnostic potential. The panel includes markers of neurodegeneration: neurofilament light chain and visinin-like protein (VILIP-1); markers of amyloidogenesis and brain amyloidosis: apolipoproteins; markers of inflammation: YKL-40 and monocyte chemoattractant protein 1; marker of synaptic dysfunction: neurogranin. These markers can highlight on the state and stage-associated changes that occur in AD brain with disease progression. A combination of these biomarkers would not only aid in preclinical diagnosis, but would also help in identifying early brain changes during the onset of disease. Successful treatment strategies can be devised by understanding the contribution of these markers in different aspects of disease pathogenesis.

Human cerebrospinal fluid 6E10-immunoreactive protein species contain amyloid precursor protein fragments

In a previous study, we reported that levels of two types of protein species-a type of ~55-kDa species and a type of ~15-kDa species-are elevated in the lumbar cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) of cognitively intact elderly individuals who are at risk for Alzheimer's disease (AD). These species are immunoreactive to the monoclonal antibody 6E10, which is directed against amino acids 6-10 of amyloid-β (Aβ), and their levels correlate with levels of total tau and tau phosphorylated at Thr181. In this study, we investigated the molecular composition of these AD-related proteins using immunoprecipitation (IP)/Western blotting coupled with IP/mass spectrometry. We show that canonical Aβ1-40/42 peptides, together with amyloid-β precursor protein (APP) fragments located N-terminally of Aβ, are present in the ~55-kDa, 6E10-immunoreactive species. We demonstrate that APP fragments located N-terminally of Aβ, plus the N-terminal region of Aβ, are present in the ~15-kDa, 6E10-immunoreactive species. These findings add to the catalog of AD-related Aβ/APP species found in CSF and should motivate further study to determine whether these species may serve as biomarkers of disease progression.

Neutrophil Gelatinase-Associated Lipocalin and its Receptors in Alzheimer's Disease (AD) Brain Regions: Differential Findings in AD with and without Depression

Co-existing depression worsens Alzheimer’s disease (AD) pathology. Neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin (NGAL) is a newly identified (neuro)inflammatory mediator in the pathophysiologies of both AD and depression. This study aimed to compare NGAL levels in healthy controls, AD without depression (AD–D), and AD with co-existing depression (AD+D) patients. Protein levels of NGAL and its receptors, 24p3R and megalin, were assessed in nine brain regions from healthy controls (n = 19), AD–D (n = 19), and AD+D (n = 21) patients. NGAL levels in AD–D patients were significantly increased in brain regions commonly associated with AD. In the hippocampus, NGAL levels were even further increased in AD+D subjects. Unexpectedly, NGAL levels in the prefrontal cortex of AD+D patients were comparable to those in controls. Megalin levels were increased in BA11 and amygdala of AD+D patients, while no changes in 24p3R were detected. These findings indicate significant differences in neuroimmunological regulation between AD patients with and without co-existing depression. Considering its known effects, elevated NGAL levels might actively promote neuropathological processes in AD with and without depression.

Amyloid β oligomers (AβOs) in Alzheimer's disease

The causative role of amyloid β 1-42 (Aβ42) aggregation in the pathogenesis of Alzheimer's disease (AD) has been under debate for over 25 years. Primarily, scientific efforts have focused on the dyshomeostasis between production and clearance of Aβ42. This imbalance may result from mutations either in genes for the substrate, i.e., amyloid precursor protein or in genes encoding presenilin, the enzyme of the reaction that generates Aβ42. Currently, it is supposed that soluble oligomers of amyloid beta (AβOs) and not fibrillar Aβ42 within neuritic plaques may be the toxic factors acting on a very early stage of AD, perhaps even initiating pathological cascade. For example, soluble AβOs isolated from AD patients' brains reduced number of synapses, inhibited long-term potentiation, and enhanced long-term synaptic depression in brain regions responsible for memory in animal models of AD. Concentrations of AβOs in the cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) of AD patients are often reported higher than in non-demented controls, and show a negative correlation with mini-mental state examination scores. Furthermore, increased Aβ42/oligomer ratio in the CSF of AD/MCI patients indicated that the presence of soluble AβOs in CSF may be linked to lowering of natively measured monomeric Aβ42 by epitopes masking, and hence, concentrations of AβOs in the CSF are postulated to as useful AD biomarkers.

Inhibition of Wnt signaling induces amyloidogenic processing of amyloid precursor protein and the production and aggregation of Amyloid-β (Aβ)42 peptides

Alzheimer's disease (AD) is the most common neurodegenerative disorder and the most frequent cause of dementia in the aged population. According to the amyloid hypothesis, the amyloid-β (Aβ) peptide plays a key role in the pathogenesis of AD. Aβ is generated from the amyloidogenic processing of amyloid precursor protein and can aggregate to form oligomers, which have been described as a major synaptotoxic agent in neurons. Dysfunction of Wnt signaling has been linked to increased Aβ formation; however, several other studies have argued against this possibility. Herein, we use multiple experimental approaches to confirm that the inhibition of Wnt signaling promoted the amyloidogenic proteolytic processing of amyloid precursor protein. We also demonstrate that inhibiting Wnt signaling increases the production of the Aβ₄₂ peptide, the Aβ₄₂ /Aβ₄₀ ratio, and the levels of Aβ oligomers such as trimers and tetramers. Moreover, we show that activating Wnt signaling reduces the levels of Aβ₄₂ and its aggregates, increases Aβ₄₀ levels, and reduces the Aβ₄₂ /Aβ₄₀ ratio. Finally, we show that the protective effects observed in response to activation of the Wnt pathway rely on β-catenin-dependent transcription, which is demonstrated experimentally via the expression of various 'mutant forms of β-catenin'. Together, our findings indicate that loss of the Wnt signaling pathway may contribute to the pathogenesis of AD.

Potential biomarkers and novel pharmacological targets in protein aggregation-related neurodegenerative diseases

The aggregation of specific proteins plays a pivotal role in the etiopathogenesis of several neurodegenerative diseases (NDs). β-Amyloid (Aβ) peptide-containing plaques and intraneuronal neurofibrillary tangles composed of hyperphosphorylated protein tau are the two main neuropathological lesions in Alzheimer's disease. Meanwhile, Parkinson's disease is defined by the presence of intraneuronal inclusions (Lewy bodies), in which α-synuclein (α-syn) has been identified as a major protein component. The current literature provides considerable insights into the mechanisms underlying oligomeric-related neurodegeneration, as well as the relationship between protein aggregation and ND, thus facilitating the development of novel putative biomarkers and/or pharmacological targets. Recently, α-syn, tau and Aβ have been shown to interact each other or with other "pathological proteins" to form toxic heteroaggregates. These latest findings are overcoming the concept that each neurodegenerative disease is related to the misfolding of a single specific protein. In this review, potential opportunities and pharmacological approaches targeting α-syn, tau and Aβ and their oligomeric forms are highlighted with examples from recent studies. Protein aggregation as a biomarker of NDs, in both the brain and peripheral fluids, is deeply explored. Finally, the relationship between biomarker establishment and assessment and their use as diagnostics or therapeutic targets are discussed.

Application of an Amyloid Beta Oligomer Standard in the sFIDA Assay

Still, there is need for significant improvements in reliable and accurate diagnosis for Alzheimer's disease (AD) at early stages. It is widely accepted that changes in the concentration and conformation of amyloid-β (Aβ) appear several years before the onset of first symptoms of cognitive impairment in AD patients. Because Aβ oligomers are possibly the major toxic species in AD, they are a promising biomarker candidate for the early diagnosis of the disease. To date, a variety of oligomer-specific assays have been developed, many of them ELISAs. Here, we demonstrate the sFIDA assay, a technology highly specific for Aβ oligomers developed toward single particle sensitivity. By spiking stabilized Aβ oligomers to buffer and to body fluids from control donors, we show that the sFIDA readout correlates with the applied concentration of stabilized oligomers diluted in buffer, cerebrospinal fluid (CSF), and blood plasma over several orders of magnitude. The lower limit of detection was calculated to be 22 fM of stabilized oligomers diluted in PBS, 18 fM in CSF, and 14 fM in blood plasma.

The past and the future of Alzheimer's disease CSF biomarkers-a journey toward validated biochemical tests covering the whole spectrum of molecular events

This paper gives a short review on cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) biomarkers for Alzheimer's disease (AD), from early developments to high-precision validated assays on fully automated lab analyzers. We also discuss developments on novel biomarkers, such as synaptic proteins and Aβ oligomers. Our vision for the future is that assaying a set of biomarkers in a single CSF tube can monitor the whole spectrum of AD molecular pathogenic events. CSF biomarkers will have a central position not only for clinical diagnosis, but also for the understanding of the sequence of molecular events in the pathogenic process underlying AD and as tools to monitor the effects of novel drug candidates targeting these different mechanisms.

How many biomarkers to discriminate neurodegenerative dementia?

A number of cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) biomarkers are currently used for the diagnosis of dementia. Opposite changes in the level of amyloid-β(1-42) versus total tau and phosphorylated-tau181 in the CSF reflect the specific pathology of Alzheimer's disease (AD) in the brain. This panel of biomarkers has proven to be effective to differentiate AD from controls and from the major types of neurodegenerative dementia, and to evaluate the progression from mild cognitive impairment to AD. In the absence of specific biomarkers reflecting the pathologies of the other most common forms of dementia, such as Lewy Body disease, Frontotemporal lobar degeneration, Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease, etc., the evaluation of biomarkers of AD pathology is used, attempting to exclude rather than to confirm AD. Other biomarkers included in the common clinical practice do not clearly relate to the underlying pathology: progranulin (PGRN) is a selective marker of frontotemporal dementia with mutations in the PGRN gene; the 14-3-3 protein is a highly sensitive and specific marker for Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease, but has to be used carefully in differentiating rapid progressive dementia; and α-synuclein is an emerging candidate biomarker of the different forms of synucleinopathy. This review summarizes several biomarkers of neurodegenerative dementia validated based on the neuropathological processes occurring in brain tissue. Notwithstanding the paucity of pathologically validated biomarkers and their high analytical variability, the combinations of these biomarkers may well represent a key and more precise analytical and diagnostic tool in the complex plethora of degenerative dementia.

Cerebrospinal fluid biomarkers in trials for Alzheimer and Parkinson diseases

Alzheimer disease (AD) and Parkinson disease (PD) are the most common neurodegenerative disorders. For both diseases, early intervention is thought to be essential to the success of disease-modifying treatments. Cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) can reflect some of the pathophysiological changes that occur in the brain, and the number of CSF biomarkers under investigation in neurodegenerative conditions has grown rapidly in the past 20 years. In AD, CSF biomarkers are increasingly being used in clinical practice, and have been incorporated into the majority of clinical trials to demonstrate target engagement, to enrich or stratify patient groups, and to find evidence of disease modification. In PD, CSF biomarkers have not yet reached the clinic, but are being studied in patients with parkinsonism, and are being used in clinical trials either to monitor progression or to demonstrate target engagement and downstream effects of drugs. CSF biomarkers might also serve as surrogate markers of clinical benefit after a specific therapeutic intervention, although additional data are required. It is anticipated that CSF biomarkers will have an important role in trials aimed at disease modification in the near future. In this Review, we provide an overview of CSF biomarkers in AD and PD, and discuss their role in clinical trials.

A sensitive aβ oligomer assay discriminates Alzheimer's and aged control cerebrospinal fluid

A hallmark of Alzheimer's disease (AD) brain is the amyloid β (Aβ) plaque, which is comprised of Aβ peptides. Multiple lines of evidence suggest that Aβ oligomers are more toxic than other peptide forms. We sought to develop a robust assay to quantify oligomers from CSF. Antibody 19.3 was compared in one-site and competitive ELISAs for oligomer binding specificity. A two-site ELISA for oligomers was developed using 19.3 coupled to a sensitive, bead-based fluorescent platform able to detect single photons of emitted light. The two-site ELISA was >2500× selective for Aβ oligomers over Aβ monomers with a limit of detection ∼ 0.09 pg/ml in human CSF. The lower limit of reliable quantification of the assay was 0.18 pg/ml and the antibody pairs recognized Aβ multimers comprised of either synthetic standards, or endogenous oligomers isolated from confirmed human AD and healthy control brain. Using the assay, a significant 3- to 5-fold increase in Aβ oligomers in human AD CSF compared with comparably aged controls was demonstrated. The increase was seen in three separate human cohorts, totaling 63 AD and 54 controls. CSF oligomers ranged between 0.1 and 10 pg/ml. Aβ oligomer levels did not strongly associate with age or gender, but had an inverse correlation with MMSE score. The C statistic for the Aβ oligomer ROC curve was 0.86, with 80% sensitivity and 88% specificity to detect AD, suggesting reasonable discriminatory power for the AD state and the potential for utility as a diagnostic marker.

Gene expression and functional annotation of the human and mouse choroid plexus epithelium

BACKGROUND

The choroid plexus epithelium (CPE) is a lobed neuro-epithelial structure that forms the outer blood-brain barrier. The CPE protrudes into the brain ventricles and produces the cerebrospinal fluid (CSF), which is crucial for brain homeostasis. Malfunction of the CPE is possibly implicated in disorders like Alzheimer disease, hydrocephalus or glaucoma. To study human genetic diseases and potential new therapies, mouse models are widely used. This requires a detailed knowledge of similarities and differences in gene expression and functional annotation between the species. The aim of this study is to analyze and compare gene expression and functional annotation of healthy human and mouse CPE.

METHODS

We performed 44k Agilent microarray hybridizations with RNA derived from laser dissected healthy human and mouse CPE cells. We functionally annotated and compared the gene expression data of human and mouse CPE using the knowledge database Ingenuity. We searched for common and species specific gene expression patterns and function between human and mouse CPE. We also made a comparison with previously published CPE human and mouse gene expression data.

RESULTS

Overall, the human and mouse CPE transcriptomes are very similar. Their major functionalities included epithelial junctions, transport, energy production, neuro-endocrine signaling, as well as immunological, neurological and hematological functions and disorders. The mouse CPE presented two additional functions not found in the human CPE: carbohydrate metabolism and a more extensive list of (neural) developmental functions. We found three genes specifically expressed in the mouse CPE compared to human CPE, being ACE, PON1 and TRIM3 and no human specifically expressed CPE genes compared to mouse CPE.

CONCLUSION

Human and mouse CPE transcriptomes are very similar, and display many common functionalities. Nonetheless, we also identified a few genes and pathways which suggest that the CPE between mouse and man differ with respect to transport and metabolic functions.

Enrichment and stratification for predementia Alzheimer disease clinical trials

The tau and amyloid pathobiological processes underlying Alzheimer disease (AD) progresses slowly over periods of decades before clinical manifestation as mild cognitive impairment (MCI), then more rapidly to dementia, and eventually to end-stage organ failure. The failure of clinical trials of candidate disease modifying therapies to slow disease progression in patients already diagnosed with early AD has led to increased interest in exploring the possibility of early intervention and prevention trials, targeting MCI and cognitively healthy (HC) populations. Here, we stratify MCI individuals based on cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) biomarkers and structural atrophy risk factors for the disease. We also stratify HC individuals into risk groups on the basis of CSF biomarkers for the two hallmark AD pathologies. Results show that the broad category of MCI can be decomposed into subsets of individuals with significantly different average regional atrophy rates. By thus selectively identifying individuals, combinations of these biomarkers and risk factors could enable significant reductions in sample size requirements for clinical trials of investigational AD-modifying therapies, and provide stratification mechanisms to more finely assess response to therapy. Power is sufficiently high that detecting efficacy in MCI cohorts should not be a limiting factor in AD therapeutics research. In contrast, we show that sample size estimates for clinical trials aimed at the preclinical stage of the disorder (HCs with evidence of AD pathology) are prohibitively large. Longer natural history studies are needed to inform design of trials aimed at the presymptomatic stage.