Machine Learning Approaches for Predicting Hypertension and Its Associated Factors Using Population-Level Data From Three South Asian Countries

Machine learning-based analyses of contributing factors for the development of hypertension: a comparative study

OBJECTIVES

Sufficient attention has not been given to machine learning (ML) models using longitudinal data for investigating important predictors of new onset of hypertension. We investigated the predictive ability of several ML models for the development of hypertension.

METHODS

A total of 15 965 Japanese participants (men/women: 9,466/6,499, mean age: 45 years) who received annual health examinations were randomly divided into a training group (70%, n = 11,175) and a test group (30%, n = 4,790). The predictive abilities of 58 candidates including fatty liver index (FLI), which is calculated by using body mass index, waist circumference and levels of γ-glutamyl transferase and triglycerides, were investigated by statistics analogous to the area under the curve (AUC) in receiver operating characteristic curve analyses using ML models including logistic regression, random forest, naïve Bayes, extreme gradient boosting and artificial neural network.

RESULTS

During a 10-year period (mean period: 6.1 years), 2,132 subjects (19.1%) in the training group and 917 subjects (19.1%) in the test group had new onset of hypertension. Among the 58 parameters, systolic blood pressure, age and FLI were identified as important candidates by random forest feature selection with 10-fold cross-validation. The AUCs of ML models were 0.765-0.825, and discriminatory capacity was significantly improved in the artificial neural network model compared to that in the logistic regression model.

CONCLUSIONS

The development of hypertension can be simply and accurately predicted by each ML model using systolic blood pressure, age and FLI as selected features. By building multiple ML models, more practical prediction might be possible.

Machine learning insights into patient satisfaction following lateral lumbar interbody fusion

PURPOSE

Lateral Lumbar Interbody Fusion (LLIF) has become a minimally invasive procedure for treating degenerative lumbar conditions. While it offers reduced blood loss and faster recovery, patient satisfaction following LLIF surgery shows significant variability. Identifying the factors influencing satisfaction is crucial for optimizing surgical outcomes and improving patient care. This study aims to determine key factors affecting patient satisfaction after LLIF surgery using machine learning (ML) models, including Random Forest, Logistic Regression, Support Vector Machine (SVM), and k-Nearest Neighbors (k-NN). Additionally, the study evaluates the predictive performance of these models to identify the most influential factors contributing to postoperative satisfaction.

METHODS

A retrospective analysis was conducted on 149 patients who underwent LLIF surgery. Preoperative, intraoperative, and postoperative variables were collected, including patient demographics, clinical measures, surgical details, and functional outcomes. Based on these variables, ML models were used to predict patient satisfaction vs. not satisfied) satisfaction (s. Model performance was evaluated using fivefold cross-validation, with metrics including accuracy, precision, recall, and F1 score.

RESULTS

Of the 149 patients, 85.2% reported satisfaction with the surgical outcome. Random Forest achieved the highest predictive performance, with an average accuracy of 82.6%, precision of 83.6%, recall of 99.2%, and an F1 score of 90.7%. Key factors influencing patient satisfaction included the preoperative low back pain score, social life function, and postoperative improvements in walking ability and mental health. Surgical factors, such as the number of fused segments and endplate injury, had less influence on satisfaction.

CONCLUSIONS

Functional outcomes, particularly improvements in low back pain, walking ability, and mental health, are the primary determinants of patient satisfaction following LLIF surgery. In contrast, surgical factors play a less significant role. Mental health emerged as a critical factor, underscoring the importance of addressing psychological recovery through preoperative counseling and personalized postoperative care. The analysis demonstrated that ML models, especially Random Forest, are effective tools for identifying the factors most predictive of postoperative satisfaction. These findings highlight the potential of ML techniques to enhance personalized treatment planning and improve outcomes by focusing on both physical and mental recovery. Further research, including multi-center studies and the integration of psychological variables, is needed to provide a more comprehensive understanding of patient satisfaction after LLIF surgery.

Development and validation of a nomogram model for predicting the risk of hypertension in Bangladesh

Background and objectives

Hypertension (HTN) is a leading cause of non-communicable disease in low- and middle-income countries, including Bangladesh. Thus, the objectives of this study were to investigate the associated risk factors for HTN and develop with validate a monogram model for predicting an individual's risk of HTN in Bangladesh.

Materials and methods

This study exploited the latest nationally representative cross-sectional BDHS, 2017-18 data, which consisted of 6569 participants. LASSO and logistic regression (LR) analysis were performed to reduce dimensionality of data, identify the associated risk factors, and develop a nomogram model for predicting HTN risk in the training cohort. The discrimination ability, calibration, and clinical effectiveness of the developed model were evaluated using validation cohort in terms of area under the curve (AUC), calibration plot, decision curve analysis, and clinical impact curve analysis.

Results

The combined results of the LASSO and LR analysis demonstrated that age, sex, division, physical activity, family member, smoking, body mass index, and diabetes were the associated risk factors of HTN. The nomogram model achieved good discrimination ability with AUC of 0.729 (95 % CI: 0.685-0.741) for training and AUC of 0.715 (95 % CI: 0.681-0.729)] for validation cohort and showed strong calibration effects, with good agreement between the actual and predicted probabilities (p-value = 0.231).

Conclusion

The proposed nomogram provided a good predictive performance and can be effectively utilized in clinical settings to accurately diagnose hypertensive patients who are at risk of developing severe HTN at an early stage in Bangladesh.

Health Data Sciences and Cardiovascular Diseases in South Asia: Innovations and Challenges in Digital Health

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

Health data sciences can help mitigate high burden of cardiovascular disease (CVD) management in South Asia by increasing availability and affordability of healthcare services. This review explores the current landscape, challenges, and strategies for leveraging digital health technologies to improve CVD outcomes in the region.

RECENT FINDINGS

Several South Asian countries are implementing national digital health strategies that aim to provide unique health account numbers for patients, creating longitudinal digital health records while others aim to digitize healthcare services and improve health outcomes. Significant challenges impede progress, including lack of interoperability, inadequate training of healthcare workers, cultural barriers, and data privacy concerns. Leveraging digital health for CVD management involves using big data for early detection, employing artificial intelligence for diagnostics, and integrating multiomics data for health insights. Addressing these challenges through policy frameworks, capacity building, and international cooperation is crucial for improving CVD outcomes in region.

Implications of Big Data Analytics, AI, Machine Learning, and Deep Learning in the Health Care System of Bangladesh: Scoping Review

BACKGROUND

The rapid advancement of digital technologies, particularly in big data analytics (BDA), artificial intelligence (AI), machine learning (ML), and deep learning (DL), is reshaping the global health care system, including in Bangladesh. The increased adoption of these technologies in health care delivery within Bangladesh has sparked their integration into health care and public health research, resulting in a noticeable surge in related studies. However, a critical gap exists, as there is a lack of comprehensive evidence regarding the research landscape; regulatory challenges; use cases; and the application and adoption of BDA, AI, ML, and DL in the health care system of Bangladesh. This gap impedes the attainment of optimal results. As Bangladesh is a leading implementer of digital technologies, bridging this gap is urgent for the effective use of these advancing technologies.

OBJECTIVE

This scoping review aims to collate (1) the existing research in Bangladesh's health care system, using the aforementioned technologies and synthesizing their findings, and (2) the limitations faced by researchers in integrating the aforementioned technologies into health care research.

METHODS

MEDLINE (via PubMed), IEEE Xplore, Scopus, and Embase databases were searched to identify published research articles between January 1, 2000, and September 10, 2023, meeting the following inclusion criteria: (1) any study using any of the BDA, AI, ML, and DL technologies and health care and public health datasets for predicting health issues and forecasting any kind of outbreak; (2) studies primarily focusing on health care and public health issues in Bangladesh; and (3) original research articles published in peer-reviewed journals and conference proceedings written in English.

RESULTS

With the initial search, we identified 1653 studies. Following the inclusion and exclusion criteria and full-text review, 4.66% (77/1653) of the articles were finally included in this review. There was a substantial increase in studies over the last 5 years (2017-2023). Among the 77 studies, the majority (n=65, 84%) used ML models. A smaller proportion of studies incorporated AI (4/77, 5%), DL (7/77, 9%), and BDA (1/77, 1%) technologies. Among the reviewed articles, 52% (40/77) relied on primary data, while the remaining 48% (37/77) used secondary data. The primary research areas of focus were infectious diseases (15/77, 19%), noncommunicable diseases (23/77, 30%), child health (11/77, 14%), and mental health (9/77, 12%).

CONCLUSIONS

This scoping review highlights remarkable progress in leveraging BDA, AI, ML, and DL within Bangladesh's health care system. The observed surge in studies over the last 5 years underscores the increasing significance of AI and related technologies in health care research. Notably, most (65/77, 84%) studies focused on ML models, unveiling opportunities for advancements in predictive modeling. This review encapsulates the current state of technological integration and propels us into a promising era for the future of digital Bangladesh.

The Association Between Overweight Obesity Status and Hypertension in a Rural Community in Dang District, Gujarat, India: A Cross-Sectional Study

Background The relationship between overweight obesity status and hypertension is well-known throughout the world, especially in low socioeconomic communities and developing countries. Both high blood pressure and obesity are preventable risk factors for noncommunicable disease, death, and disability. The prevalence of obesity-overweight status in India is increasing faster than the global average, and diabetes in Southeast Asia has surged over the past few decades. There have been few systematic studies focusing on public health development in rural communities of India, like the Dang District. This study explores the association between overweight-obesity status and hypertension prevalence in a rural community in Dang district, Gujarat, India. Methods A cross-sectional design was utilized for this study, involving 1012 adult patient charts collected from medical camps in December 2018 and 2019. Patients with incomplete information for measurements of blood pressure, height, weight, age, and sex were omitted from the analysis (n=953). Data on BMI and blood pressure were analyzed to examine the relationship between overweight-obesity status and hypertension. Hypertension was defined by the American Heart Association (AHA) cut-offs for measured blood pressure. Both World Health Organization (WHO) and South Asian cut-offs were used for BMI. Binary logistic regression was used to assess the association between hypertension and overweight-obesity status, adjusted for age and sex. Results Most patients were hypertensive, with males having a higher prevalence (63.3%) than females (55.1%). The prevalence of hypertension among participants increased with age. This was true for both sexes, except for males 45-54 years of age. The average BMI for both sexes was 22.4. Results indicated that overweight and obese individuals had a significantly higher prevalence of hypertension compared to their normal-weight counterparts, suggesting a strong association between the two conditions. A binary logistic regression found that males were 1.35 times more likely to have hypertension than females (95% CI 1.03 - 1.79), and increasing age and BMI were associated with an increased likelihood of hypertension.  Conclusion The association between hypertension and BMI is positive and is stronger when using South Asian cut-offs. Using these cut-offs will include a wider range of people at risk for hypertension. With males and older adults especially at risk, targeting public health awareness campaigns to reduce BMI and help lower the burden of hypertension can improve the health and quality of life in this community.

Smart solutions in hypertension diagnosis and management: a deep dive into artificial intelligence and modern wearables for blood pressure monitoring

Hypertension, a widespread cardiovascular issue, presents a major global health challenge. Traditional diagnosis and treatment methods involve periodic blood pressure monitoring and prescribing antihypertensive drugs. Smart technology integration in healthcare offers promising results in optimizing the diagnosis and treatment of various conditions. We investigate its role in improving hypertension diagnosis and treatment effectiveness using machine learning algorithms for early and accurate detection. Intelligent models trained on diverse datasets (encompassing physiological parameters, lifestyle factors, and genetic information) to detect subtle hypertension risk patterns. Adaptive algorithms analyze patient-specific data, optimizing treatment plans based on medication responses and lifestyle habits. This personalized approach ensures effective, minimally invasive interventions tailored to each patient. Wearables and smart sensors provide real-time health insights for proactive treatment adjustments and early complication detection.

Predicting high blood pressure using machine learning models in low- and middle-income countries

Responding to the rising global prevalence of noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) requires improvements in the management of high blood pressure. Therefore, this study aims to develop an explainable machine learning model for predicting high blood pressure, a key NCD risk factor, using data from the STEPwise approach to NCD risk factor surveillance (STEPS) surveys. Nationally representative samples of adults aged 18-69 years were acquired from 57 countries spanning six World Health Organization (WHO) regions. Data harmonization and processing were performed to standardize the selected predictors and synchronize features across countries, yielding 41 variables, including demographic, behavioural, physical, and biochemical factors. Five machine learning models - logistic regression, k-nearest neighbours, random forest, XGBoost, and a fully connected neural network - were trained and evaluated at global, regional, and country-specific levels using an 80/20 train-test split. The models' performance was assessed using accuracy, precision, recall, and F1 score. Feature importance analysis identified age, weight, heart rate, waist circumference, and height as key predictors of blood pressure. Across the 57 countries studied, model performances varied considerably, with accuracy ranging from as low as 58.96% in some models for specific countries to as high as 81.41% in others, underscoring the need for region and country-specific adaptations in modelling approaches. The explainable model offers an opportunity for population-level screening and continuous risk assessment in resource-limited settings.

Prevalence of childhood hypertension and associated factors in Zhejiang Province: a cross-sectional analysis based on random forest model and logistic regression

With childhood hypertension emerging as a global public health concern, understanding its associated factors is crucial. This study investigated the prevalence and associated factors of hypertension among Chinese children. This cross-sectional investigation was conducted in Pinghu, Zhejiang province, involving 2,373 children aged 8-14 years from 12 schools. Anthropometric measurements were taken by trained staff. Blood pressure (BP) was measured in three separate occasions, with an interval of at least two weeks. Childhood hypertension was defined as systolic blood pressure (SBP) and/or diastolic blood pressure (DBP) ≥ age-, sex-, and height-specific 95th percentile, across all three visits. A self-administered questionnaire was utilized to collect demographic, socioeconomic, health behavioral, and parental information at the first visit of BP measurement. Random forest (RF) and multivariable logistic regression model were used collectively to identify associated factors. Additionally, population attributable fractions (PAFs) were calculated. The prevalence of childhood hypertension was 5.0% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 4.1-5.9%). Children with body mass index (BMI) ≥ 85th percentile were grouped into abnormal weight, and those with waist circumference (WC) > 90th percentile were sorted into central obesity. Normal weight with central obesity (NWCO, adjusted odds ratio [aOR] = 5.04, 95% CI: 1.96-12.98), abnormal weight with no central obesity (AWNCO, aOR = 4.60, 95% CI: 2.57-8.21), and abnormal weight with central obesity (AWCO, aOR = 9.94, 95% CI: 6.06-16.32) were associated with an increased risk of childhood hypertension. Childhood hypertension was attributable to AWCO mostly (PAF: 0.64, 95% CI: 0.50-0.75), followed by AWNCO (PAF: 0.34, 95% CI: 0.19-0.51), and NWCO (PAF: 0.13, 95% CI: 0.03-0.30). Our results indicated that obesity phenotype is associated with childhood hypertension, and the role of weight management could serve as potential target for intervention.

Transforming Healthcare: The AI Revolution in the Comprehensive Care of Hypertension

This review explores the transformative role of artificial intelligence (AI) in hypertension care, summarizing and analyzing published works from the last three years in this field. Hypertension contributes to a significant healthcare burden both at an individual and global level. We focus on five key areas: risk prediction, diagnosis, education, monitoring, and management of hypertension, supplemented with a brief look into the works on hypertensive disease of pregnancy. For each area, we discuss the advantages and disadvantages of integrating AI. While AI, in its current rudimentary form, cannot replace sound clinical judgment, it can still enhance faster diagnosis, education, prevention, and management. The integration of AI in healthcare is poised to revolutionize hypertension care, although careful implementation and ongoing research are essential to mitigate risks.

A Systematic Approach Focused on Machine Learning Models for Exploring the Landscape of Physiological Measurement and Estimation Using Photoplethysmography (PPG)

A non-invasive optical technique known as photoplethysmography (PPG) can be used to provide various physiological measurements and estimations. PPG can be used to assess cardiovascular disease (CVD). Hypertension is a primary risk factor for CVD and a major health problem worldwide. PPG is popular because of its important applications in the evaluation of cardiac activity, variations in venous blood volume, blood oxygen saturation, blood pressure and heart rate variability, etc. In this study, we provide a comprehensive analysis of the extraction of various physiological parameters using PPG waveforms. In addition, we focused on the role of machine learning (ML) models used for the estimation of blood pressure and hypertension classification based on PPG waveforms to make future research and innovation recommendations. This study will be helpful for researchers, scientists, and medical practitioners working on PPG waveforms for monitoring, screening, and diagnosis, as a comparative study or reference.

Revolutionizing Cardiology through Artificial Intelligence-Big Data from Proactive Prevention to Precise Diagnostics and Cutting-Edge Treatment-A Comprehensive Review of the Past 5 Years

BACKGROUND

Artificial intelligence (AI) can radically change almost every aspect of the human experience. In the medical field, there are numerous applications of AI and subsequently, in a relatively short time, significant progress has been made. Cardiology is not immune to this trend, this fact being supported by the exponential increase in the number of publications in which the algorithms play an important role in data analysis, pattern discovery, identification of anomalies, and therapeutic decision making. Furthermore, with technological development, there have appeared new models of machine learning (ML) and deep learning (DP) that are capable of exploring various applications of AI in cardiology, including areas such as prevention, cardiovascular imaging, electrophysiology, interventional cardiology, and many others. In this sense, the present article aims to provide a general vision of the current state of AI use in cardiology.

RESULTS

We identified and included a subset of 200 papers directly relevant to the current research covering a wide range of applications. Thus, this paper presents AI applications in cardiovascular imaging, arithmology, clinical or emergency cardiology, cardiovascular prevention, and interventional procedures in a summarized manner. Recent studies from the highly scientific literature demonstrate the feasibility and advantages of using AI in different branches of cardiology.

CONCLUSIONS

The integration of AI in cardiology offers promising perspectives for increasing accuracy by decreasing the error rate and increasing efficiency in cardiovascular practice. From predicting the risk of sudden death or the ability to respond to cardiac resynchronization therapy to the diagnosis of pulmonary embolism or the early detection of valvular diseases, AI algorithms have shown their potential to mitigate human error and provide feasible solutions. At the same time, limits imposed by the small samples studied are highlighted alongside the challenges presented by ethical implementation; these relate to legal implications regarding responsibility and decision making processes, ensuring patient confidentiality and data security. All these constitute future research directions that will allow the integration of AI in the progress of cardiology.

Artificial intelligence in preventive cardiology

Artificial intelligence (AI) is a field of study that strives to replicate aspects of human intelligence into machines. Preventive cardiology, a subspeciality of cardiovascular (CV) medicine, aims to target and mitigate known risk factors for CV disease (CVD). AI's integration into preventive cardiology may introduce novel treatment interventions and AI-centered clinician assistive tools to reduce the risk of CVD. AI's role in nutrition, weight loss, physical activity, sleep hygiene, blood pressure, dyslipidemia, smoking, alcohol, recreational drugs, and mental health has been investigated. AI has immense potential to be used for the screening, detection, and monitoring of the mentioned risk factors. However, the current literature must be supplemented with future clinical trials to evaluate the capabilities of AI interventions for preventive cardiology. This review discusses present examples, potentials, and limitations of AI's role for the primary and secondary prevention of CVD.

Machine learning models for prediction of double and triple burdens of non-communicable diseases in Bangladesh

Increasing prevalence of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) has become the leading cause of death and disability in Bangladesh. Therefore, this study aimed to measure the prevalence of and risk factors for double and triple burden of NCDs (DBNCDs and TBNCDs), considering diabetes, hypertension, and overweight and obesity as well as establish a machine learning approach for predicting DBNCDs and TBNCDs. A total of 12,151 respondents from the 2017 to 2018 Bangladesh Demographic and Health Survey were included in this analysis, where 10%, 27.4%, and 24.3% of respondents had diabetes, hypertension, and overweight and obesity, respectively. Chi-square test and multilevel logistic regression (LR) analysis were applied to select factors associated with DBNCDs and TBNCDs. Furthermore, six classifiers including decision tree (DT), LR, naïve Bayes (NB), k-nearest neighbour (KNN), random forest (RF), and extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) with three cross-validation protocols (K2, K5, and K10) were adopted to predict the status of DBNCDs and TBNCDs. The classification accuracy (ACC) and area under the curve (AUC) were computed for each protocol and repeated 10 times to make them more robust, and then the average ACC and AUC were computed. The prevalence of DBNCDs and TBNCDs was 14.3% and 2.3%, respectively. The findings of this study revealed that DBNCDs and TBNCDs were significantly influenced by age, sex, marital status, wealth index, education and geographic region. Compared to other classifiers, the RF-based classifier provides the highest ACC and AUC for both DBNCDs (ACC = 81.06% and AUC = 0.93) and TBNCDs (ACC = 88.61% and AUC = 0.97) for the K10 protocol. A combination of considered two-step factor selections and RF-based classifier can better predict the burden of NCDs. The findings of this study suggested that decision-makers might adopt suitable decisions to control and prevent the burden of NCDs using RF classifiers.

Automatic identification of hypertension and assessment of its secondary effects using artificial intelligence: A systematic review (2013-2023)

Artificial Intelligence (AI) techniques are increasingly used in computer-aided diagnostic tools in medicine. These techniques can also help to identify Hypertension (HTN) in its early stage, as it is a global health issue. Automated HTN detection uses socio-demographic, clinical data, and physiological signals. Additionally, signs of secondary HTN can also be identified using various imaging modalities. This systematic review examines related work on automated HTN detection. We identify datasets, techniques, and classifiers used to develop AI models from clinical data, physiological signals, and fused data (a combination of both). Image-based models for assessing secondary HTN are also reviewed. The majority of the studies have primarily utilized single-modality approaches, such as biological signals (e.g., electrocardiography, photoplethysmography), and medical imaging (e.g., magnetic resonance angiography, ultrasound). Surprisingly, only a small portion of the studies (22 out of 122) utilized a multi-modal fusion approach combining data from different sources. Even fewer investigated integrating clinical data, physiological signals, and medical imaging to understand the intricate relationships between these factors. Future research directions are discussed that could build better healthcare systems for early HTN detection through more integrated modeling of multi-modal data sources.

Precision Hypertension

Hypertension affects >1 billion people worldwide. Complications of hypertension include stroke, renal failure, cardiac hypertrophy, myocardial infarction, and cardiac failure. Despite the development of various antihypertensive drugs, the number of people with uncontrolled hypertension continues to rise. While the lack of compliance associated with frequent side effects to medication is a contributory issue, there has been a failure to consider the diverse nature of hypertensive populations. Instead, we propose that hypertension can only be truly managed by precision. A precision medicine approach would consider each patient's unique factors. In this review, we discuss the progress toward precision medicine for hypertension with more predictiveness and individualization of treatment. We will highlight the advances in data science, omics (genomics, metabolomics, proteomics, etc), artificial intelligence, gene therapy, and gene editing and their application to precision hypertension.

Machine learning-based models to predict the conversion of normal blood pressure to hypertension within 5-year follow-up

BACKGROUND

Factors contributing to the development of hypertension exhibit significant variations across countries and regions. Our objective was to predict individuals at risk of developing hypertension within a 5-year period in a rural Middle Eastern area.

METHODS

This longitudinal study utilized data from the Fasa Adults Cohort Study (FACS). The study initially included 10,118 participants aged 35-70 years in rural districts of Fasa, Iran, with a follow-up of 3,000 participants after 5 years using random sampling. A total of 160 variables were included in the machine learning (ML) models, and feature scaling and one-hot encoding were employed for data processing. Ten supervised ML algorithms were utilized, namely logistic regression (LR), support vector machine (SVM), random forest (RF), Gaussian naive Bayes (GNB), linear discriminant analysis (LDA), k-nearest neighbors (KNN), gradient boosting machine (GBM), extreme gradient boosting (XGB), cat boost (CAT), and light gradient boosting machine (LGBM). Hyperparameter tuning was performed using various combinations of hyperparameters to identify the optimal model. Synthetic Minority Over-sampling Technology (SMOTE) was used to balance the training data, and feature selection was conducted using SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP).

RESULTS

Out of 2,288 participants who met the criteria, 251 individuals (10.9%) were diagnosed with new hypertension. The LGBM model (determined to be the optimal model) with the top 30 features achieved an AUC of 0.67, an f1-score of 0.23, and an AUC-PR of 0.26. The top three predictors of hypertension were baseline systolic blood pressure (SBP), gender, and waist-to-hip ratio (WHR), with AUCs of 0.66, 0.58, and 0.63, respectively. Hematuria in urine tests and family history of hypertension ranked fourth and fifth.

CONCLUSION

ML models have the potential to be valuable decision-making tools in evaluating the need for early lifestyle modification or medical intervention in individuals at risk of developing hypertension.

Untapped potential of gut microbiome for hypertension management

The gut microbiota has been shown to be associated with a range of illnesses and disorders, including hypertension, which is recognized as the primary factor contributing to the development of serious cardiovascular diseases. In this review, we conducted a comprehensive analysis of the progression of the research domain pertaining to gut microbiota and hypertension. Our primary emphasis was on the interplay between gut microbiota and blood pressure that are mediated by host and gut microbiota-derived metabolites. Additionally, we elaborate the reciprocal communication between gut microbiota and antihypertensive drugs, and its influence on the blood pressure of the host. The field of computer science has seen rapid progress with its great potential in the application in biomedical sciences, we prompt an exploration of the use of microbiome databases and artificial intelligence in the realm of high blood pressure prediction and prevention. We propose the use of gut microbiota as potential biomarkers in the context of hypertension prevention and therapy.

Lifestyle management of hypertension: International Society of Hypertension position paper endorsed by the World Hypertension League and European Society of Hypertension

Hypertension, defined as persistently elevated systolic blood pressure (SBP) >140 mmHg and/or diastolic blood pressure (DBP) at least 90 mmHg (International Society of Hypertension guidelines), affects over 1.5 billion people worldwide. Hypertension is associated with increased risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) events (e.g. coronary heart disease, heart failure and stroke) and death. An international panel of experts convened by the International Society of Hypertension College of Experts compiled lifestyle management recommendations as first-line strategy to prevent and control hypertension in adulthood. We also recommend that lifestyle changes be continued even when blood pressure-lowering medications are prescribed. Specific recommendations based on literature evidence are summarized with advice to start these measures early in life, including maintaining a healthy body weight, increased levels of different types of physical activity, healthy eating and drinking, avoidance and cessation of smoking and alcohol use, management of stress and sleep levels. We also discuss the relevance of specific approaches including consumption of sodium, potassium, sugar, fibre, coffee, tea, intermittent fasting as well as integrated strategies to implement these recommendations using, for example, behaviour change-related technologies and digital tools.

Diabetes and hypertension MobileHealth systems: a review of general challenges and advancements

Mobile health (mHealth) systems are sipping into more and more healthcare functions with self-management being the foremost modus operandi. However, there has been challenges. This study explores challenges with mHealth self-management of diabetes and hypertension, two of the most comorbid chronic diseases. Existing literature present the challenges in fragments, certain subsets of the challenges at a time. Nevertheless, feedback from patient/users in extant literature depict very variegated concerns that are also interdependent. This work pursues provision of an encyclopedic, but not redundant, view of the challenges with mHealth systems for self-management of diabetes and hypertension.

Furthermore, the work identifies machine learning (ML) and self-management approaches as potential drivers of potency of diabetes and hypertension mobile health systems. The nexus between ML and diabetes and hypertension mHealth systems was found to be under-explored. For ML contributions to management of diabetes, we found that machine learning has been applied most to diabetes prediction followed by diagnosis, with therapy in distant third. For diabetes therapy research, only physical and dietary therapy were emphasized in reviewed literature. The four most considered performance metrics were accuracy, ROC-AUC, sensitivity, and specificity. Random forest was the best performing algorithm across all metrics, for all purposes covered in the literature. For hypertension, in descending order, hypertension prediction, prediction of risk factors, and prediction of prehypertension were most considered areas of hypertension management witnessing application of machine learning. SVM averaged best ML algorithm in accuracy and sensitivity, while random forest averaged best performing in specificity and ROC-AUC.

Shapely additive values can effectively visualize pertinent covariates in machine learning when predicting hypertension

Machine learning methods are widely used within the medical field to enhance prediction. However, little is known about the reliability and efficacy of these models to predict long-term medical outcomes such as blood pressure using lifestyle factors, such as diet. The authors assessed whether machine-learning techniques could accurately predict hypertension risk using nutritional information. A cross-sectional study using data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) between January 2017 and March 2020. XGBoost was used as the machine-learning model of choice in this study due to its increased performance relative to other common methods within medical studies. Model prediction metrics (e.g., AUROC, Balanced Accuracy) were used to measure overall model efficacy, covariate Gain statistics (percentage each covariate contributes to the overall prediction) and SHapely Additive exPlanations (SHAP, method to visualize each covariate) were used to provide explanations to machine-learning output and increase the transparency of this otherwise cryptic method. Of a total of 9650 eligible patients, the mean age was 41.02 (SD = 22.16), 4792 (50%) males, 4858 (50%) female, 3407 (35%) White patients, 2567 (27%) Black patients, 2108 (22%) Hispanic patients, and 981 (10%) Asian patients. From evaluation of model gain statistics, age was found to be the single strongest predictor of hypertension, with a gain of 53.1%. Additionally, demographic factors such as poverty and Black race were also strong predictors of hypertension, with gain of 4.33% and 4.18%, respectively. Nutritional Covariates contributed 37% to the overall prediction: Sodium, Caffeine, Potassium, and Alcohol intake being significantly represented within the model. Machine Learning can be used to predict hypertension.

Predicting Changes in Systolic and Diastolic Blood Pressure of Hypertensive Patients in Indonesia Using Machine Learning

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

This retrospective study investigated factors that influence the occurrence of decreased systolic and diastolic blood pressure including sociodemographic and economic factors, hypertension duration, cigarette consumption, alcohol consumption, duration of smoking, type of cigarettes, exercise, salt consumption, sleeping pills consumption, insomnia, and diabetes. These factors were applied to predict the reality of systolic and diastolic decrease using the machine learning algorithm Naïve Bayes, artificial neural network, logistic regression, and decision tree.

RECENT FINDINGS

The increase in blood pressure, both systolic and diastolic, is very harmful to the health because uncontrolled high systolic and diastolic blood pressure can cause various diseases such as congestive heart failure, kidney failure, and cardiovascular disease. There have been many studies examining the factors that influence the occurrence of hypertension, but few studies have used machine learning to predict hypertension. The machine learning models performed well and can be used for predicting whether a person with hypertension with certain characteristics will experience a decrease in their systolic or diastolic blood pressure after treatment with antihypertensive drugs.

Burden of Hypertensive Heart Disease and High Systolic Blood Pressure in Australia from 1990 to 2019: Results From the Global Burden of Diseases Study

BACKGROUND

There is a dearth of comprehensive studies examining the burden and trends of hypertensive heart disease (HHD) and high systolic blood pressure (SBP) among the Australian population. We aimed to explore the burden of HHD and high SBP, and how they changed over time from 1990 to 2019 in Australia.

METHODS

We analysed data from the Global Burden of Disease study in Australia. We assessed the prevalence, mortality, disability-adjusted life-years (DALY), years lived with disability (YLD) and years of life lost (YLL) attributable to HHD and high SBP. Data were presented as point estimates with 95% uncertainty intervals (UI). We compared the burden of HHD and high SBP in Australia with World Bank defined high-income countries and six other comparator countries with similar sociodemographic characteristics and economies.

RESULTS

From 1990 to 2019, the burden of HHD and high SBP in Australia reduced. Age standardised prevalence rate of HHD was 119.3 cases per 100,000 people (95% UI 86.6-161.0) in 1990, compared to 80.1 cases (95% UI 57.4-108.1) in 2019. Deaths due to HDD were 3.4 cases per 100,000 population (95% UI 2.6-3.8) in 1990, compared to 2.5 (95% UI 1.9-3.0) in 2019. HHD contributed to 57.2 (95% UI 46.6-64.7) DALYs per 100,000 population in 1990 compared to 38.4 (95% UI 32.0-45.2) in 2019. Death rates per 100,000 population attributable to high SBP declined significantly over time for both sexes from 1990 (155.6 cases; 95% UI 131.2-177.0) to approximately one third in 2019 (53.8 cases; 95% UI 43.4-64.4). Compared to six other countries in 2019, the prevalence of HHD was highest in the USA (274.3%) and lowest in the UK (52.6%), with Australia displaying the third highest prevalence. Australia ranked second in term of lowest rates of deaths and third for lowest DALYs respectively due to high SBP. From 1990-2019, Australia ranked third best for reductions in deaths and DALYs due to HHD and first for reductions in deaths and DALYs due to high SBP.

CONCLUSION

Over the past three decades, the burden of HHD in Australia has reduced, but its prevalence remains relatively high. The contribution of high SBP to deaths, DALYs and YLLs also reduced over the three decades.

Development of a convenient and effective hypertension risk prediction model and exploration of the relationship between Serum Ferritin and Hypertension Risk: a study based on NHANES 2017-March 2020

Background

Hypertension is a major public health problem, and its resulting other cardiovascular diseases are the leading cause of death worldwide. In this study, we constructed a convenient and high-performance hypertension risk prediction model to assist in clinical diagnosis and explore other important influencing factors.

Methods

We included 8,073 people from NHANES (2017-March 2020), using their 120 features to form the original dataset. After data pre-processing, we removed several redundant features through LASSO regression and correlation analysis. Thirteen commonly used machine learning methods were used to construct prediction models, and then, the methods with better performance were coupled with recursive feature elimination to determine the optimal feature subset. After data balancing through SMOTE, we integrated these better-performing learners to construct a fusion model based for predicting hypertension risk on stacking strategy. In addition, to explore the relationship between serum ferritin and the risk of hypertension, we performed a univariate analysis and divided it into four level groups (Q1 to Q4) by quartiles, with the lowest level group (Q1) as the reference, and performed multiple logistic regression analysis and trend analysis.

Results

The optimal feature subsets were: age, BMI, waist, SBP, DBP, Cre, UACR, serum ferritin, HbA1C, and doctors recommend reducing salt intake. Compared to other machine learning models, the constructed fusion model showed better predictive performance with precision, accuracy, recall, F1 value and AUC of 0.871, 0.873, 0.871, 0.869 and 0.966, respectively. For the analysis of the relationship between serum ferritin and hypertension, after controlling for all co-variates, OR and 95% CI from Q2 to Q4, compared to Q1, were 1.396 (1.176-1.658), 1.499 (1.254-1.791), and 1.645 (1.360-1.989), respectively, with P < 0.01 and P for trend <0.001.

Conclusion

The hypertension risk prediction model developed in this study is efficient in predicting hypertension with only 10 low-cost and easily accessible features, which is cost-effective in assisting clinical diagnosis. We also found a trend correlation between serum ferritin levels and the risk of hypertension.

Predicting the risk of hypertension using machine learning algorithms: A cross sectional study in Ethiopia

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

Hypertension (HTN), a major global health concern, is a leading cause of cardiovascular disease, premature death and disability, worldwide. It is important to develop an automated system to diagnose HTN at an early stage. Therefore, this study devised a machine learning (ML) system for predicting patients with the risk of developing HTN in Ethiopia.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

The HTN data was taken from Ethiopia, which included 612 respondents with 27 factors. We employed Boruta-based feature selection method to identify the important risk factors of HTN. The four well-known models [logistics regression, artificial neural network, random forest, and extreme gradient boosting (XGB)] were developed to predict HTN patients on the training set using the selected risk factors. The performances of the models were evaluated by accuracy, precision, recall, F1-score, and area under the curve (AUC) on the testing set. Additionally, the SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) method is one of the explainable artificial intelligences (XAI) methods, was used to investigate the associated predictive risk factors of HTN.

RESULTS

The overall prevalence of HTN patients is 21.2%. This study showed that XGB-based model was the most appropriate model for predicting patients with the risk of HTN and achieved the accuracy of 88.81%, precision of 89.62%, recall of 97.04%, F1-score of 93.18%, and AUC of 0. 894. The XBG with SHAP analysis reveal that age, weight, fat, income, body mass index, diabetes mulitas, salt, history of HTN, drinking, and smoking were the associated risk factors of developing HTN.

CONCLUSIONS

The proposed framework provides an effective tool for accurately predicting individuals in Ethiopia who are at risk for developing HTN at an early stage and may help with early prevention and individualized treatment.

Artificial intelligence in cardiovascular prevention: new ways will open new doors

Prevention and effective treatment of cardiovascular disease are progressive issues that grow in tandem with the average age of the world population. Over recent decades, the potential role of artificial intelligence in cardiovascular medicine has been increasingly recognized because of the incredible amount of real-world data (RWD) regarding patient health status and healthcare delivery that can be collated from a variety of sources wherein patient information is routinely collected, including patient registries, clinical case reports, reimbursement claims and billing reports, medical devices, and electronic health records. Like any other (health) data, RWD can be analysed in accordance with high-quality research methods, and its analysis can deliver valuable patient-centric insights complementing the information obtained from conventional clinical trials. Artificial intelligence application on RWD has the potential to detect a patient's health trajectory leading to personalized medicine and tailored treatment. This article reviews the benefits of artificial intelligence in cardiovascular prevention and management, focusing on diagnostic and therapeutic improvements without neglecting the limitations of this new scientific approach.

Machine learning models trained on synthetic datasets of multiple sample sizes for the use of predicting blood pressure from clinical data in a national dataset

INTRODUCTION

The potential for synthetic data to act as a replacement for real data in research has attracted attention in recent months due to the prospect of increasing access to data and overcoming data privacy concerns when sharing data. The field of generative artificial intelligence and synthetic data is still early in its development, with a research gap evidencing that synthetic data can adequately be used to train algorithms that can be used on real data. This study compares the performance of a series machine learning models trained on real data and synthetic data, based on the National Diet and Nutrition Survey (NDNS).

METHODS

Features identified to be potentially of relevance by directed acyclic graphs were isolated from the NDNS dataset and used to construct synthetic datasets and impute missing data. Recursive feature elimination identified only four variables needed to predict mean arterial blood pressure: age, sex, weight and height. Bayesian generalised linear regression, random forest and neural network models were constructed based on these four variables to predict blood pressure. Models were trained on the real data training set (n = 2408), a synthetic data training set (n = 2408) and larger synthetic data training set (n = 4816) and a combination of the real and synthetic data training set (n = 4816). The same test set (n = 424) was used for each model.

RESULTS

Synthetic datasets demonstrated a high degree of fidelity with the real dataset. There was no significant difference between the performance of models trained on real, synthetic or combined datasets. Mean average error across all models and all training data ranged from 8.12 To 8.33. This indicates that synthetic data was capable of training equally accurate machine learning models as real data.

DISCUSSION

Further research is needed on a variety of datasets to confirm the utility of synthetic data to replace the use of potentially identifiable patient data. There is also further urgent research needed into evidencing that synthetic data can truly protect patient privacy against adversarial attempts to re-identify real individuals from the synthetic dataset.

Integrating Health Data-Driven Machine Learning Algorithms to Evaluate Risk Factors of Early Stage Hypertension at Different Levels of HDL and LDL Cholesterol

Purpose: Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is a major worldwide health burden. As the risk factors of CVD, hypertension, and hyperlipidemia are most mentioned. Early stage hypertension in the population with dyslipidemia is an important public health hazard. This study was the application of data-driven machine learning (ML), demonstrating complex relationships between risk factors and outcomes and promising predictive performance with vast amounts of medical data, aimed to investigate the association between dyslipidemia and the incidence of early stage hypertension in a large cohort with normal blood pressure at baseline. Methods: This study analyzed annual health screening data for 71,108 people from 2005 to 2017, including data for 27 risk-related indicators, sourced from the MJ Group, a major health screening center in Taiwan. We used five machine learning (ML) methods—stochastic gradient boosting (SGB), multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS), least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression (Lasso), ridge regression (Ridge), and gradient boosting with categorical features support (CatBoost)—to develop a multi-stage ML algorithm-based prediction scheme and then evaluate important risk factors at the early stage of hypertension, especially for groups with high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) levels within or out of the reference range. Results: Age, body mass index, waist circumference, waist-to-hip ratio, fasting plasma glucose, and C-reactive protein (CRP) were associated with hypertension. The hemoglobin level was also a positive contributor to blood pressure elevation and it appeared among the top three important risk factors in all LDL-C/HDL-C groups; therefore, these variables may be important in affecting blood pressure in the early stage of hypertension. A residual contribution to blood pressure elevation was found in groups with increased LDL-C. This suggests that LDL-C levels are associated with CPR levels, and that the LDL-C level may be an important factor for predicting the development of hypertension. Conclusion: The five prediction models provided similar classifications of risk factors. The results of this study show that an increase in LDL-C is more important than the start of a drop in HDL-C in health screening of sub-healthy adults. The findings of this study should be of value to health awareness raising about hypertension and further discussion and follow-up research.

Consensus on Recommended Functions of a Smart Home System to Improve Self-Management Behaviors in People With Heart Failure: A Modified Delphi Approach

Background

Smart home systems could enhance clinical and self-management of chronic heart failure by supporting health monitoring and remote support, but evidence to guide the design of smart home system functionalities is lacking.

Objective

To identify consensus-based recommendations for functions of a smart home system that could augment clinical and self-management for people living with chronic heart failure in the community.

Methods

Healthcare professionals caring for people living with chronic heart failure participated in a two-round modified Delphi survey and a consensus workshop. Thirty survey items spanning eight chronic health failure categories were derived from international guidelines for the management of heart failure. In survey Round 1, participants rated the importance of all items using a 9-point Liket scale and suggested new functions to support people with chronic heart failure in their homes using a smart home system. The Likert scale scores ranged from 0 (not important) to 9 (very important) and scores were categorized into three groups: 1-3 = not important, 4-6 = important, and 7-9 = very important. Consensus agreement was defined a priori as ≥70% of respondents rating a score of ≥7 and ≤ 15% rating a score ≤ 3. In survey Round 2, panel members re-rated items where consensus was not reached, and rated the new items proposed in earlier round. Panel members were invited to an online consensus workshop to discuss items that had not reached consensus after Round 2 and agree on a set of recommendations for a smart home system.

Results

In Round 1, 15 experts agreed 24/30 items were "very important", and suggested six new items. In Round 2, experts agreed 2/6 original items and 6/6 new items were "very important". During the consensus workshop, experts endorsed 2/4 remaining items. Finally, the expert panel recommended 34 items as "very important" for a smart home system including, healthy eating, body weight and fluid intake, physical activity and sedentary behavior, heart failure symptoms, tobacco cessation and alcohol reduction, medication adherence, physiological monitoring, interaction with healthcare professionals, and mental health among others.

Conclusion

A panel of healthcare professional experts recommended 34-item core functions in smart home systems designed to support people with chronic heart failure for self-management and clinical support. Results of this study will help researchers to co-design and protyping solutions with consumers and healthcare providers to achieve these core functions to improve self-management and clinical outcomes in people with chronic heart failure.

Wearable cuffless blood pressure monitoring devices: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Aims

High blood pressure (BP) is the commonest modifiable cardiovascular risk factor, yet its monitoring remains problematic. Wearable cuffless BP devices offer potential solutions; however, little is known about their validity and utility. We aimed to systematically review the validity, features and clinical use of wearable cuffless BP devices.

Methods and results

We searched MEDLINE, Embase, IEEE Xplore and the Cochrane Database till December 2019 for studies that reported validating cuffless BP devices. We extracted information about study characteristics, device features, validation processes, and clinical applications. Devices were classified according to their functions and features. We defined devices with a mean systolic BP (SBP) and diastolic BP (DBP) biases of <5 mmHg as valid as a consensus. Our definition of validity did not include assessment of device measurement precision, which is assessed by standard deviation of the mean difference-a critical component of ISO protocol validation criteria. Study quality was assessed using the Quality Assessment of Diagnostic Accuracy Studies version 2 tool. A random-effects model meta-analysis was performed to summarise the mean biases for SBP and DBP across studies. Of the 430 studies identified, 16 studies (15 devices, 974 participants) were selected. The majority of devices (81.3%) used photoplethysmography to estimate BP against a reference device; other technologies included tonometry, auscultation and electrocardiogram. In addition to BP and heart rate, some devices also measured night-time BP (n = 5), sleep monitoring (n = 3), oxygen saturation (n = 3), temperature (n = 2) and electrocardiogram (n = 3). Eight devices showed mean biases of <5 mmHg for SBP and DBP compared with a reference device and three devices were commercially available. The meta-analysis showed no statistically significant differences between the wearable and reference devices for SBP (pooled mean difference = 3.42 mmHg, 95% CI: -2.17, 9.01, I² 95.4%) and DBP (pooled mean = 1.16 mmHg, 95% CI: -1.26, 3.58, I² 87.1%).

Conclusion

Several cuffless BP devices are currently available using different technologies, offering the potential for continuous BP monitoring. The variation in standards and validation protocols limited the comparability of findings across studies and the identification of the most accurate device. Challenges such as validation using standard protocols and in real-life settings must be overcome before they can be recommended for uptake into clinical practice.

An Improved Machine-Learning Approach for COVID-19 Prediction Using Harris Hawks Optimization and Feature Analysis Using SHAP

A healthcare monitoring system needs the support of recent technologies such as artificial intelligence (AI), machine learning (ML), and big data, especially during the COVID-19 pandemic. This global pandemic has already taken millions of lives. Both infected and uninfected people have generated big data where AI and ML can use to combat and detect COVID-19 at an early stage. Motivated by this, an improved ML framework for the early detection of this disease is proposed in this paper. The state-of-the-art Harris hawks optimization (HHO) algorithm with an improved objective function is proposed and applied to optimize the hyperparameters of the ML algorithms, namely HHO-based eXtreme gradient boosting (HHOXGB), light gradient boosting (HHOLGB), categorical boosting (HHOCAT), random forest (HHORF) and support vector classifier (HHOSVC). An ensemble technique was applied to these optimized ML models to improve the prediction performance. Our proposed method was applied to publicly available big COVID-19 data and yielded a prediction accuracy of 92.38% using the ensemble model. In contrast, HHOXGB provided the highest accuracy of 92.23% as a single optimized model. The performance of the proposed method was compared with the traditional algorithms and other ML-based methods. In both cases, our proposed method performed better. Furthermore, not only the classification improvement, but also the features are analyzed in terms of feature importance calculated by SHapely adaptive exPlanations (SHAP) values. A graphical user interface is also discussed as a potential tool for nonspecialist users such as clinical staff and nurses. The processed data, trained model, and codes related to this study are available at GitHub.