Long-term trends in the burden of edentulism in China over three decades: A Joinpoint regression and age-period-cohort analysis based on the global burden of disease study 2019

Global, regional, and national temporal trends of edentulism burden from 1990to 2021 and predictions to 2050: an age-period-cohort analysis, decompositionanalysis and frontier analysis

OBJECTIVES

Edentulism affects not only chewing function but also oral health, facial morphology, and mental health. It's crucial to conduct an overview and in - depth analysis of the prevalence of edentulism and Disability - Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) at global, regional, and national levels from 1990 to 2021.

METHODS

This study sourced edentulism data from the 2021 Global Burden of Disease (GBD) database, spanning 1990 - 2021. A Joinpoint regression model, with annual percentage change (APC) and average annual percentage change (AAPC) as indicators, identified inflection points in the time - series. The slope index of inequality (SII) and concentration index (CI) were calculated to evaluate global health inequalities. Das Gupta's decomposition method and frontier analysis evaluated the link between edentulism burden and sociodemographic development. Finally, a Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model predicted future prevalence and incidence trends over the next decades.

RESULTS

In 2021, the global prevalence of edentulism was reported at 353,000,621 cases (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 300,591,593-416,167,869), with 9,590,987 DALY (95% UI: 6,202,444-13,470,473), nearly double the figures from 1990. Decomposition analysis highlighted population aging and growth made significant contributions. Health inequality analysis revealed that the SII for DALYs was 93.497 (95% CI: 71.486-115.508) in 1990 and -18.412 (95% CI: -92.144-55.320) in 2021. From 1990 to 2021, the CI for DALYs showed an upward trend, changing from -0.202 in 1990 to 0.353 in 2021. BAPC model projects age-standardized prevalence rates(ASPR) decline by 2050, with higher burden in over 60 years old.

Fungal Skin Disease Incidence, Prevalence and Disability-Adjusted Life Years in Four Asian Countries (1990-2019)

BACKGROUND

Fungal skin diseases are a significant burden in Asia, with varying trends from 1990 to 2019, highlighting the need for targeted interventions.

OBJECTIVE

To investigate long-term trends in the incidence, prevalence and disability-adjusted life-year rates for fungal skin diseases in China, India, Japan and Singapore from 1990 to 2019.

PATIENTS/METHODS

Data were obtained from the 2019 Global Burden of Disease Study. Independent age, period and cohort effects were calculated using age-period-cohort analysis.

RESULTS

Age-standardised incidence, prevalence and disability-adjusted life-year rates of fungal skin diseases in China, India, Japan and Singapore decreased from 1990 to 2019. India has the highest standardised incidence, prevalence and disability-adjusted life-year rates. The crude incidence, prevalence and disability-adjusted life-year rates showed an increasing trend in China, Japan and Singapore, and a decreasing trend in India. The age-period-cohort analysis found that the age effect increased in China, Japan and Singapore at ages 45-94 years, and India showed higher risk coefficients at ages 5-20 and 45-94 years. The period effect increased in the four countries, with more pronounced increases in Japan and Singapore. The cohort effect showed a monotonic decline with birth cohort in the four countries, with a slightly slower decline in India.

CONCLUSION

Fungal skin diseases pose a serious burden in Asian countries. We recommend raising awareness and providing specialised interventions for fungal skin diseases, especially for high-risk groups, such as middle-aged and older adults aged ≤ 45 years and young Indians aged ≤ 20 years.

Epidemiological shifts in chronic kidney disease: a 30-year global and regional assessment

BACKGROUND

Chronic kidney disease (CKD) presents a growing global health challenge, with significant variability in disease burden across different regions and countries. This study aimed to analyze the trends in incidence, prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for CKD from 1990 to 2019, utilizing data from the Global Burden of Disease Study.

METHODS

We conducted an in-depth study on the global and age-standardized incidence, prevalence, mortality, and DALYs of CKD, and assessed trends over a 30-year period. Additionally, we explored the associations between healthcare access and quality (HAQ), the Socio-Demographic Index (SDI), and CKD. Furthermore, we conducted a detailed analysis of six risk factors closely related to CKD, and based on these findings, provided strong evidence for enhancing the management of CKD.

RESULTS

In 2019, there were 18,986,903 cases of CKD, with an average annual percent change (AAPC) of 1.82 (95% CI = 1.8 to 1.82) in incidence since 1990. The age-standardized incidence rate increased from 192.45 per 100,000 in 1990 to 233.65 per 100,000 in 2019. Prevalence also rose, with a total of 69,729,430 cases in 2019 and an AAPC of 1.19 (95% CI = 1.19 to 1.2). Mortality and DALYs have increased correspondingly, with the mortality rate reaching 18.29 per 100,000 and total DALYs at 41,538,592 in 2019. The analysis showed that higher HAQ levels are associated with better outcomes in terms of lower mortality and DALY rates, whereas lower HAQ levels correlate with poorer outcomes. In addition, high fasting plasma glucose and high systolic blood pressure are the main contributors to CKD-related deaths, with their population attributable fraction (PAF) significantly decreasing as the SDI decreases.

CONCLUSION

The burden of CKD has significantly increased over the past three decades, influenced by demographic changes and variations in healthcare quality and access. Effective public health strategies and improvements in healthcare delivery are needed to address the disparities in CKD outcomes globally.

Global spatiotemporal distributions of lymphoma from 1990 to 2019: A Joinpoint regression analysis based on the global burden of disease study 2019, and projections until 2044

Lymphoma is a dissimilar collection of malignant neoplasms arising from the clonal propagation of lymphocytes. It is conventionally classified into two categories: Hodgkin lymphoma and non-Hodgkin lymphoma. The purpose of this study is to analyze the temporal patterns in the incidence of lymphoma worldwide over the past few decades and forecast the future trends from 2020 to 2044. Data on HL and NHL were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. In an effort to estimate the incidence rate trend, the Joinpoint regression analysis model was exploited. What's more, to project the disease burden by 2044, the Bayesian age-period-cohort analysis was employed. In 2019, higher incidence rates were observed in males and the elderly for both subtypes. Over the last three decades, a significant decline in the age-standardized incidence rate of HL was observed, while NHL has shown an increasing trend. By 2044, the age-standardized incidence rate of HL is anticipated to decrease in males and increase in females, while that of NHL is expected to rise. This study presents a new assessment of the spatiotemporal distributions of lymphoma. Significant emphasis should be placed on the effective management and long-term monitoring of patients to mitigate the potential future impact of the disease.

Projecting trends in the disease burden of adult edentulism in China between 2020 and 2030: a systematic study based on the global burden of disease

Purpose

This study was based on the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) database and aimed to analyze the trend of disease burden for complete edentulism in Chinese adults between 1990 and 2030, and to provide valuable information for the development of more effective management and preventive measures.

Methods

Data on Chinese adults with complete edentulism from 1990 to 2019 was analyzed using GHDx data. Descriptive analyses were used to analyze changes in the prevalence and burden of complete edentulism, gender and age distribution between 1990 and 2019. In addition, we used an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model to predict the trend of disease burden for Chinese adults with complete edentulism between 2020 and 2030.

Results

The incidence, prevalence, and rate of YLDs in adults with complete edentulism in China showed an increasing trend from 1990 to 2019. In 2019, the incidence was 251.20 per 100,000, the prevalence was 4512.78 per 100,000, and the YLDs were 123.44 per 100,000, marking increases of 20.58, 94.18, and 93.12% from 1990. Males experienced a higher increase than females. However, the standardized rates decreased over the same period. The ARIMA model predicts a subsequent upward and then downward trend for all indicators between 2019 and 2030, except for the standardized incidence rate which remained essentially unchanged. Specifically, the incidence is predicted to decrease from 388.93 to 314.40 per 100,000, prevalence from 4512.78 to 3049.70 per 100,000, and YLDs from 123.44 to 103.44 per 100,000. The standardized prevalence and YLDs rates are also expected to decrease.

Conclusion

The burden of complete edentulism in China is projected to show an increasing trend from 2020 to 2022 and a decreasing trend from 2023 to 2030. Despite the decline in the burden of disease associated with complete edentulism in China, many problems remain to be solved.