A Tool for Prioritizing Livestock Disease Threats to Scotland

Approaches for disease prioritization and decision-making in animal health, 2000-2021: a structured scoping review

This scoping review identifies and describes the methods used to prioritize diseases for resource allocation across disease control, surveillance, and research and the methods used generally in decision-making on animal health policy. Three electronic databases (Medline/PubMed, Embase, and CAB Abstracts) were searched for articles from 2000 to 2021. Searches identified 6, 395 articles after de-duplication, with an additional 64 articles added manually. A total of 6, 460 articles were imported to online document review management software (sysrev.com) for screening. Based on inclusion and exclusion criteria, 532 articles passed the first screening, and after a second round of screening, 336 articles were recommended for full review. A total of 40 articles were removed after data extraction. Another 11 articles were added, having been obtained from cross-citations of already identified articles, providing a total of 307 articles to be considered in the scoping review. The results show that the main methods used for disease prioritization were based on economic analysis, multi-criteria evaluation, risk assessment, simple ranking, spatial risk mapping, and simulation modeling. Disease prioritization was performed to aid in decision-making related to various categories: (1) disease control, prevention, or eradication strategies, (2) general organizational strategy, (3) identification of high-risk areas or populations, (4) assessment of risk of disease introduction or occurrence, (5) disease surveillance, and (6) research priority setting. Of the articles included in data extraction, 50.5% had a national focus, 12.3% were local, 11.9% were regional, 6.5% were sub-national, and 3.9% were global. In 15.2% of the articles, the geographic focus was not specified. The scoping review revealed the lack of comprehensive, integrated, and mutually compatible approaches to disease prioritization and decision support tools for animal health. We recommend that future studies should focus on creating comprehensive and harmonized frameworks describing methods for disease prioritization and decision-making tools in animal health.

A high level estimation of the net economic benefits to small-scale livestock producers arising from animal health product distribution initiatives

Introduction

A fundamental challenge for charities that facilitate distribution of animal health products to small-scale livestock producers (SSPs) in low and middle income countries (LMICs) is identifying the products and market mechanisms that provide the greatest positive impact for SSPs and estimating their associated impact. This paper describes a pragmatic approach to modeling the impact of market-led product distribution initiatives based on estimating the net economic benefit of administration of animal health products.

Methods

The model estimates the economic impact of diseases at the individual animal level for poultry, small ruminants, and cattle. The economic impact of mortality and growth inhibition associated with disease are then estimated in conjunction with the losses averted or recovered by preventing or treating the disease. Economic benefit is estimated in 2014-2017 values and also adjusted to 2023 values. The flexible model structure allows for addition of new geographies, new products, and increased granularity of modeled production systems.

Results

Applied to the Global Alliance for Livestock Veterinary Medicines (GALVmed) product distribution initiatives conducted in Africa and South Asia (SA) between 2014 and 2017, the model estimates an adjusted total net economic benefit of 139.9 million USD from sales of vaccines and poultry anthelminthics in these initiatives. Within SSA, the greatest net economic benefit was realized from East Coast fever and Newcastle disease vaccines, while in SA, peste des petits ruminants and Newcastle disease vaccines had the greatest net economic benefits. This translated to an adjusted $37.97 of net economic benefit on average per SSP customer, many of whom were small poultry producers.

Discussion

While the model currently estimates impacts from mortality and growth inhibition in livestock, there is the potential to extend it to cover impacts of further initiatives, including interventions targeted at diseases that impact production of milk, eggs, and reproduction.

The Importance of the Slaughterhouse in Surveilling Animal and Public Health: A Systematic Review

From the point of public health, the objective of the slaughterhouse is to guarantee the safety of meat in which meat inspection represent an essential tool to control animal diseases and guarantee the public health. The slaughterhouse can be used as surveillance center for livestock diseases. However, other aspects related with animal and human health, such as epidemiology and disease control in primary production, control of animal welfare on the farm, surveillance of zoonotic agents responsible for food poisoning, as well as surveillance and control of antimicrobial resistance, can be monitored. These controls should not be seen as a last defensive barrier but rather as a complement to the controls carried out on the farm. Regarding the control of diseases in livestock, scientific research is scarce and outdated, not taking advantage of the potential for disease control. Animal welfare in primary production and during transport can be monitored throughout ante-mortem and post-mortem inspection at the slaughterhouse, providing valuable individual data on animal welfare. Surveillance and research regarding antimicrobial resistance (AMR) at slaughterhouses is scarce, mainly in cattle, sheep, and goats. However, most of the zoonotic pathogens are sensitive to the antibiotics studied. Moreover, the prevalence at the slaughterhouse of zoonotic and foodborne agents seems to be low, but a lack of harmonization in terms of control and communication may lead to underestimate its real prevalence.

Rapid risk assessment tool (RRAT) to prioritize emerging and re-emerging livestock diseases for risk management

Increasing globalization and international trade contribute to rapid expansion of animal and human diseases. Hence, preparedness is warranted to prevent outbreaks of emerging and re-emerging diseases or detect outbreaks in an early stage. We developed a rapid risk assessment tool (RRAT) to inform risk managers on the incursion risk of multiple livestock diseases, about the main sources for incursion and the change of risk over time. RRAT was built as a relational database to link data on disease outbreaks worldwide, on introduction routes and on disease-specific parameters. The tool was parameterized to assess the incursion risk of 10 livestock diseases for the Netherlands by three introduction routes: legal trade in live animals, legal trade of animal products, and animal products illegally carried by air travelers. RRAT calculates a semi-quantitative risk score for the incursion risk of each disease, the results of which allow for prioritization. Results based on the years 2016-2018 indicated that the legal introduction routes had the highest incursion risk for bovine tuberculosis, whereas the illegal route posed the highest risk for classical swine fever. The overall incursion risk via the illegal route was lower than via the legal routes. The incursion risk of African swine fever increased over the period considered, whereas the risk of equine infectious anemia decreased. The variation in the incursion risk over time illustrates the need to update the risk estimates on a regular basis. RRAT has been designed such that the risk assessment can be automatically updated when new data becomes available. For diseases with high-risk scores, model results can be analyzed in more detail to see which countries and trade flows contribute most to the risk, the results of which can be used to design risk-based surveillance. RRAT thus provides a multitude of information to evaluate the incursion risk of livestock diseases at different levels of detail. To give risk managers access to all results of RRAT, an online visualization tool was built.

Assessing the introduction risk of vector-borne animal diseases for the Netherlands using MINTRISK: A Model for INTegrated RISK assessment

To evaluate and compare the risk of emerging vector-borne diseases (VBDs), a Model for INTegrated RISK assessment, MINTRISK, was developed to assess the introduction risk of VBDs for new regions in an objective, transparent and repeatable manner. MINTRISK is a web-based calculation tool, that provides semi-quantitative risk scores that can be used for prioritization purposes. Input into MINTRISK is entered by answering questions regarding entry, transmission, establishment, spread, persistence and impact of a selected VBD. Answers can be chosen from qualitative answer categories with accompanying quantitative explanation to ensure consistent answering. The quantitative information is subsequently used as input for the model calculations to estimate the risk for each individual step in the model and for the summarizing output values (rate of introduction; epidemic size; overall risk). The risk assessor can indicate his uncertainty on each answer, and this is accounted for by Monte Carlo simulation. MINTRISK was used to assess the risk of four VBDs (African horse sickness, epizootic haemorrhagic disease, Rift Valley fever, and West Nile fever) for the Netherlands with the aim to prioritise these diseases for preparedness. Results indicated that the overall risk estimate was very high for all evaluated diseases but epizootic haemorrhagic disease. Uncertainty intervals were, however, wide limiting the options for ranking of the diseases. Risk profiles of the VBDs differed. Whereas all diseases were estimated to have a very high economic impact once introduced, the estimated introduction rates differed from low for Rift Valley fever and epizootic haemorrhagic disease to moderate for African horse sickness and very high for West Nile fever. Entry of infected mosquitoes on board of aircraft was deemed the most likely route of introduction for West Nile fever into the Netherlands, followed by entry of infected migratory birds.

Review: Vaccines and Vaccination against Lumpy Skin Disease

The geographical distribution of lumpy skin disease (LSD), an economically important cattle disease caused by a capripoxvirus, has reached an unprecedented extent. Vaccination is the only way to prevent the spread of the infection in endemic and newly affected regions. Yet, in the event of an outbreak, selection of the best vaccine is a major challenge for veterinary authorities and farmers. Decision makers need sound scientific information to support their decisions and subsequent actions. The available vaccine products vary in terms of quality, efficacy, safety, side effects, and price. The pros and cons of different types of live attenuated and inactivated vaccines, vaccination strategies, and associated risks are discussed. Seroconversion, which typically follows vaccination, places specific demands on the tools and methods used to evaluate the effectiveness of the LSD vaccination campaigns in the field. We aimed to give a comprehensive update on available vaccines and vaccination against LSD, to better prepare affected and at-risk countries to control LSD and ensure the safe trade of cattle.

Critical Systematic Review of Zoonoses and Transboundary Animal Diseases' Prioritization in Africa

Background: Disease prioritization aims to enhance resource use efficiency concerning human and animal health systems’ preparedness and response to the most important problems for the optimization of beneficial outcomes. In sub-Sahara Africa (SSA), several prioritizations of zoonoses and transboundary animal diseases (TADs) have been implemented at different scales to characterize potential disease impacts. Method and principal findings: In this systematic review, we analyze the methodologies used, outcomes, and their relevance by discussing criteria required to align decision-makers’ perceptions of impacts to those of other stakeholders for different prioritization in SSA. In general, the sectorial representativeness of stakeholders for processes implemented with the support of international partners showed slight differences with the absence of local stakeholders. Whatever the tool prioritized, zoonoses were similar in general because of the structured nature of those tools in assessing decision-makers’ preferences through value trade-offs between criteria while ensuring transparency and reproducibility. However, by involving field practitioners and farmers, there were different outcomes with processes concerning only decision makers and experts who were more sensitive to infectious TADs, while the former raised parasitic disease constraints. In this context, multicriteria decision analysis-based zoonoses and TADs prioritizations involving a balanced participation of stakeholders might contribute to bridging these divergences, whatever the scale. Conclusion and significance: Prioritization processes were important steps toward building and harmonizing technical laboratory and surveillance networks to coordinate projects to address priority zoonoses and TADs at the country and/or sub-regional level. Those processes should be enhanced.