African Swine Fever: Fast and Furious or Slow and Steady?

A scenario model to support freedom from African swine fever virus in Western Canada populated with data from Canada West Swine Health Intelligence Network and CanSpotASF

African swine fewer (ASF) is a serious disease present in Africa, Eurasia, and the Caribbean but not in continental North America. CanSpotASF describes the ASF surveillance in Canada. It enhanced the passive surveillance by adding new surveillance components one by one. The first enhancement was "the risk-based early detection testing (rule-out testing)" where cases with eligible conditions were tested for ASF virus (ASFv). The rule-out testing started in 2020 and we have over 3 years data in the Canada West Swine Health Intelligence Network (CWSHIN) data repository on ASFv rule-out testing. The objectives were to develop and assess a scenario tree model (STM) for ASFv freedom to support the claim that commercial swine in Western Canada were free from ASFv; to assess if the CWSHIN repository data may be useful in the STM; and to assess if the rule-out testing had contributed to more evidence of freedom from ASFv than we would have had with passive surveillance alone. To compare and assess different scenarios we used the model's ability to accumulate evidence of freedom from the July quarter in 2020 to the July quarter in 2023 (13 quarters). We concluded that a method to assess the ability of a scenario and model to accumulate evidence of freedom, based on increasing probability of freedom that approached an equilibrium and a system sensitivity of at least 0.2-0.3, was useful. The CWSHIN data repository was critical to populate the model because it included both number of clinical assessments by herd veterinarians (from quarterly surveys); routine diagnostic data (pathology examinations) and ASF testing results from laboratories. The take home message was that the probability that a herd veterinarian will report a suspicion of ASF to the Canadian Food Inspection Agency (CFIA) (seVet) affected the outcomes of the STM. If the probability that a herd veterinarian reports to CFIA is low (seVet=0.01), then pathology examination and CanSpotASF will improve the STM outcomes. If the probability that a herd veterinarian reports to CFIA is high (seVet is 0.7 or higher), then there is no need for additional pathology and CanSpotASF testing. We expect the actual probability of reporting and subsequent value of additional pathology and testing to between these two scenarios.

Modeling the transmission dynamics of African swine fever virus within commercial swine barns: Quantifying the contribution of multiple transmission pathways

The transmission of African swine fever virus (ASFV) within swine barns occurs through direct and indirect pathways. Identifying and quantifying the roles of ASFV dissemination within barns is crucial for developing disease control strategies. We created a stochastic transmission model to examine the ASFV dissemination dynamics through transmission routes within commercial swine barns. We consider seven transmission routes at three disease dynamics levels: within-pens, between-pens, and within-room transmission, along with the transfer of pigs between pens within rooms. We simulated ASFV spread within barns of various sizes and layouts from rooms with a median of 32 pens (IQR: 28-40), where each pen housed a median of 34 pigs (IQR: 29-36). Our model enables tracking the viral load in each pen and monitoring the disease status at the pen level. Results show that between-pen transmission pathways exhibited the highest contribution in spread, accounting for 66.76%, whereas within-pen and within-room pathways account for 26.12% and 7.12%, respectively. Nose-to-nose contact between pens was the primary dissemination route, comprising an average of 46.04%. On the other hand, aerosol transmission within pens had the lowest contribution, accounting for less than 1%. Furthermore, we show that the daily transfer of pigs between pens did not impact the spread of ASFV. On average, at the room level, the combined approach of passive daily surveillance and mortality-focused surveillance enabled ASFV detection within 18 (IQR: 16-19) days. The model allows us to monitor the viral load variation across the room over time, revealing that most of the viral load accumulates in pens closer to the exhaust fans after a month. This work significantly deepens our understanding of ASFV spread within commercial swine production farms in the U.S. and highlights the main transmission pathways that should be prioritized when implementing ASFV countermeasure actions at the room level.

African Swine Fever: A One Health Perspective and Global Challenges

African Swine Fever is non-zoonotic viral disease affecting pigs worldwide, with severe implications for many sectors such as national economies and pig populations. The disease control strategies are variable across the globe and its implementation and outcome depend on many factors. One Health describes the collaborative effort across disciplines to address public health challenges involving human, animal, and environmental aspects. African Swine Fever is not commonly understood under the concept of One Health. However, the disease has a great impact on all One Health interfaces. This paper reviews and discusses how the vast impact of ASF, a non-zoonotic disease, still demands a holistic perspective to address global challenges and opportunities to control the disease.

An epidemiological model of SIR in a nanotechnological innovation environment

Today, when nanotechnological innovation, in particular, faces stringent regulations, the question arises concerning a tool that can quantify individual interventions and thus complement current knowledge in the diffusion theory of innovation. This paper examines the complex nature of innovation diffusion in a rapidly evolving technological environment. The research presents current knowledge in the field linking diffusion of innovation theory and the basic epidemiological model of SIR (Susceptible, Infected, Recovered). Epidemiological models, originally developed to study the spread of infectious diseases, offer intriguing parallels to innovation diffusion due to shared characteristics in propagation dynamics. Integrating the SIR epidemiological model into the current theoretical framework allows the SIR model to be considered as a tool capable of filling current gaps in the literature. Nanotechnological innovations are chosen because of their significant impact on society, which faces unique market entry challenges. Within the framework of high interdisciplinarity, nanotechnologies, like viruses, tend to 'mutate' into different industries where their 'infectivity' varies. The case of nanotechnology serves to illustrate the usefulness of the proposed model and shows how factors that influence the spread of viruses can similarly affect the adoption of technological innovations. Similar characteristics in the propagation framework between innovations and viruses can serve as one of many arguments for the use of the SIR model in this field. Using an integrative review, aspects that have the potential to add to the SIR model in the current literature are identified. By combining epidemiological findings with innovation theory, the paper contributes to a richer and more integrated understanding of the phenomena of diffusion of nanotechnological innovations. The motivation is to open a debate regarding the ability of the epidemiological model of SIR to reveal the impact of interventions affecting the diffusion of innovations.

Habitat suitability mapping and landscape connectivity analysis to predict African swine fever spread in wild boar populations: A focus on Northern Italy

African swine fever (ASF) is a highly contagious disease affecting wild and domestic pigs, characterised by severe haemorrhagic symptoms and high mortality rates. Originally confined to Sub-Saharan Africa, ASF virus genotype II has spread to Europe since 2014, mainly affecting Eastern Europe, and progressing through wild boar migrations and human action. In January 2022, the first case of ASF, due to genotype II, was reported in North-western Italy, in a wild boar carcass. Thereafter, numerous positive wild boars were identified, indicating an expanding wild epidemic, severely threatening Italian pig farming and trade. This study focused on the mapping of the suitable habitats for wild boars and their potential dispersal corridors in Northern Italy, using species distribution models and landscape connectivity analysis. The resulting maps identified areas with higher likelihood of wild boar presence, highlighting their preferential pathways crossing Northern Italy. The distribution of ASF positive wild boars along the major corridors predicted by the model suggests the obtained maps as valuable support to decision-makers to improve ASF surveillance and carcass early detection, aiming for eradication. The applied framework can be easily replicated in other regions and countries.

An immunoassay based on bioluminescent sensors for rapid detection of African swine fever virus antibodies

Serological assays for antibody detection have contributed significantly to the diagnosis and control of infectious diseases. African swine fever is the most devastating infectious disease of domestic pigs and wild boars, severely threatening the global pig industry in recent years. Here, we developed a rapid, simple, and sensitive immunoassay based on the split-luciferase system to detect IgG antibodies against African swine fever virus (ASFV). In this assay, the p30 protein of ASFV was genetically coupled to the LgBiT and SmBiT subunits of nanoluciferase, which were used as fusion probes for specific antibodies. Target engagement of the probes results in the reconstitution of a functional nanoluciferase, which further catalyzes bioluminescent reactions. Different orientations of the LgBiT and SmBiT-p30 fusion sensors were designed and investigated, and N-LgBiT/p30 and N-SmBiT/p30 were identified as a promising sensor pair for reforming active nanoluciferase in the presence of specific antibodies. After optimization, this split-luciferase complementation assay showed high sensitivity and specificity for the detection of ASFV antibodies. The analytical sensitivity of the assay was 16 times greater than that of the blocking enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) by the detection of serial dilutions of serum, and no cross-reaction was observed with other swine pathogens. As demonstrated in clinical samples, its performance is highly consistent with that of a commercial ELISA kit, with a concordance rate of 98.19%. This assay is simple and easy to perform, providing a more flexible and efficient approach for the measurement of ASFV antibodies in clinical applications.

IMPORTANCE

The study is about a homogeneous split-luciferase assay for antibody detection. Split nanoluciferase biosensors for the detection of ASFV antibodies were designed. This sensor platform enables the sensitive and specific detection of antibodies. The split-luciferase assay is simple, rapid, and easy to use.

Modeling Singapore's First African Swine Fever Outbreak in Wild Boar Populations

African swine fever (ASF) is a virulent and lethal disease affecting domestic pigs and wild boars, with serious implications for biodiversity, food security, and the economy. Since its reemergence in Europe, ASF has become widespread, and Singapore reported its first ASF outbreak in its wild boar population. To understand the transmission dynamics in Singapore's urban landscape, an agent-based spatiotemporal model was designed to mechanistically model the wild boar dispersal and their interactions for ASF transmission. We investigated the impacts of wild boar dispersal capacity and carcass removal actions on the spatiotemporal dynamics of disease transmission. The model predictions were validated using observed wild boar mortality reports in Singapore and suggested multiple disease entry points into our wild boar population. Our simulations estimated that the ASF outbreak in Singapore would peak within 3 weeks and lasts for less than 70 days. Carcass-mediated transmission was evident with epidemic reoccurrence through infectious carcasses accounting for 18%-75% of the iterations. Increasing wild boar dispersal capacity expanded the geographic extent of ASF infection, potentially spreading further inland. Simulated carcass removal and decontamination measures slightly reduced the epidemic duration by up to 13.5 days and reoccurrence through infectious carcass by 10.8%. Carcass removal and decontamination efforts, along with identifying and blocking high-risk areas (e.g., dispersal corridors), are important in controlling the transmission of ASF through contaminated fomites and limiting the dispersal of infected animals. Establishing surveillance programmes and enhancing detection capabilities are also crucial for the successful management and control of infectious diseases.

Comparative evaluation of disease dynamics in wild boar and domestic pigs experimentally inoculated intranasally with the European highly virulent African swine fever virus genotype II strain "Armenia 2007"

Since the reintroduction of African swine fever virus (ASFV) in Europe in 2007 and its subsequent spread to Asia, wild boar has played a crucial role in maintaining and disseminating the virus. There are significant gaps in the knowledge regarding infection dynamics and disease pathogenesis in domestic pigs and wild boar, particularly at the early infection stage. We aimed to compare domestic pigs and wild boar infected intranasally to mimic natural infection with one of the original highly virulent genotype II ASFV isolates (Armenia 2007). The study involved euthanising three domestic pigs and three wild boar on days 1, 2, 3, and 5 post-infection, while four domestic pigs and four wild boar were monitored until they reached a humane endpoint. The parameters assessed included clinical signs, macroscopic lesions, viremia levels, tissue viral load, and virus shedding in nasal and rectal swabs from day 1 post-infection. Compared with domestic pigs, wild boar were more susceptible to ASFV, with a shorter incubation period and earlier onset of clinical signs. While wild boar reached a humane endpoint earlier than domestic pigs did, the macroscopic lesions were comparatively less severe. In addition, wild boar had earlier viremia, and the virus was also detected earlier in tissues. The medial retropharyngeal lymph nodes were identified as key portals for ASFV infection in both subspecies. No viral genome was detected in nasal or rectal swabs until shortly before reaching the humane endpoint in both domestic pigs and wild boar, suggesting limited virus shedding in acute infections.

Quantitative risk assessment model of the presence of porcine epidemic diarrhea and African swine fever viruses in spray-dried porcine plasma

Introduction

There are no microbiological regulatory limits for viruses in animal feed and feed ingredients.

Methods

A performance objective (PO) was proposed in this study to manufacture a spray-dried porcine plasma (SDPP) batch absent of any infectious viral particles. The PO levels of -7.0, -7.2, and -7.3 log TCID50/g in SDPP were estimated for three batch sizes (10, 15, and 20 tons).

Results and discussion

A baseline survey on the presence of porcine epidemic diarrhea virus (PEDV) in raw porcine plasma revealed a concentration of -1.0 ± 0.6 log TCID50/mL as calculated using a TCID50-qPCR derived standard curve. The mean African swine fever virus (ASFV) concentration in raw plasma was estimated to be 0.6 log HAD50/mL (0.1-1.4, 95% CI) during a pre-clinical scenario (collected from asymptomatic and undetected viremic pigs). Different processing scenarios (baseline: spray-drying + extended storage) and baseline + ultraviolet (UV) radiation were evaluated to meet the PO levels proposed in this study. The baseline and baseline + UV processing scenarios were >95 and 100% effective in achieving the PO for PEDV by using different batch sizes. For the ASFV in SDPP during a pre-clinical scenario, the PO compliance was 100% for all processing scenarios evaluated. Further research is needed to determine the underlying mechanisms of virus inactivation in feed storage to further advance the implementation of feed safety risk management efforts globally.

In silico identification of multi-target inhibitors from medicinal fungal metabolites against the base excision repair pathway proteins of African swine fever virus

African swine fever virus (ASFV) has emerged as a serious threat to the pork industry resulting in significant economic losses and heightened concerns about food security. With no known cure presently available, existing control measures center on animal quarantine and culling. Considering the severity and challenges posed by ASFV, it is imperative to discover new treatment strategies and implement additional measures to prevent its further spread. This study recognized the potential of 1830 fungal metabolites from medicinal fungi as antiviral compounds against base excision repair (BER) proteins of ASFV, specifically ASFVAP, ASFVPolX, and ASFVLig. A wide array of computer-aided drug discovery techniques were employed to carry out the virtual screening process: ADMET profiling revealed 319 molecules with excellent bioavailability and toxicity properties; consensus docking identified the 10 best-scoring ligands against all targets; molecular dynamics simulation elucidated the stability of the protein-ligand complexes; and MM/PB(GB)SA energy calculations predicted the binding energies of the compounds as well as the key residues integral to binding. Through in silico methods, we identified two theoretical lead candidates against ASFVAP, four against ASFVLig, and five against ASFVPolX. Two compounds, methyl ganoderate E and antcamphin M, exhibited potential multi-target inhibitory characteristics against ASFVPolX and ASFVLig, while compound cochlactone A showed promising antagonistic results against all three BER proteins. It is recommended to prioritize these hit compounds in future in vitro and in vivo studies to validate their potential as antiviral drugs against ASFV.

Global Basic Reproduction Number of African Swine Fever in Wild Boar and a Mental Model to Explore the Disease Dynamics

Basic reproduction number (R 0) is a mathematical expression used in epidemiology to address expected number of secondary cases. R 0 helps to predict outbreak diffusion and preventive measures. As African swine fever (ASF) is a viral infectious disease, there are significant studies related to R 0 of the ASF outbreak, but most of them are investigated in a zonal and geospecific boundary. This study explores the general overview of African swine fever virus (ASFV) R 0 based on existing literature and examines for the global scale using a doubling time approach using wild boar outbreaks. Further, a qualitative mental model is developed to explore the ASF disease dynamics. It was found that the average R 0 was 3.56 from existing literature. Based on the global scenario, ASFV spread in wild boar was above the threshold line (R 0 ≥ 1). The recent growth trend (R 0=5.87) flagging the very high risk. ASFV is threatening the world. The qualitative mental model highlighted the veterinary services as awareness and R&D support are highlighted as the control measures. This study provides a reference to researchers and veterinarians in setting strategies of developing preventive measures and highlights the importance of awareness programs and R&D support for mitigating the ASFV spread.

Natural co-infection of pigs with African swine fever virus and porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus in India

Porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome (PRRS) and African swine fever (ASF) are economically important diseases of pigs throughout the world. During an outbreak, all age groups of animals except piglets < 1 month of age were affected with symptoms of high fever, cutaneous hemorrhages, vomition with blood, diarrhea, poor appetite, ataxia, and death. The outbreak was confirmed by the detection of the N gene of the porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus (PRRSV) and the VP72 gene of the African swine fever virus (ASFV) by PCR in representative blood samples from affected pigs followed by Sanger sequencing. Mixed infection was also confirmed by simultaneous detection of both the viruses using multiplex PCR. Phylogenetic analysis of both the viruses revealed that the outbreak was related to ASFV and PRRSV strains from China which were also closely related to the PRRSV and ASFV strains from the recent outbreak from India. The study confirmed the involvement of genotype II of ASFV and genotype 2 of PRRSV in the present outbreak. Interestingly, PRRSV associated with the present outbreak was characterized as a highly pathogenic PRRSV. Therefore, the present study indicates the possibility of future waves or further outbreaks of these diseases (PRRS and ASF) in this region. This is the first report of ASFV and PRRSV co-infection in pigs from India.

From pigs to wild boars, the rise of African swine fever in India

African swine fever (ASF) is an infectious transboundary disease of domestic pigs and wild boars. In India, introduction of ASF in early 2020 from outbreaks in domestic pigs reported from two north-eastern states and its further spread to several Indian states inflicted severe losses in pig and pork production. ASF has also been reported in wild boars (Sus scrofa) indicating a local transmission from domestic pigs with a high likelihood that it might attain an endemic status and threaten wildlife conservation by endangering the pygmy hogs (Porcula salvania), the world's smallest wild pig native to this region. To ensure future food security and prevent the implications of ASF in India, biosecurity and border measures, disease control strategies and production systems must be improved and modernized.

The Effectiveness of Protection and Surveillance Zones in Detecting Further African Swine Fever Outbreaks in Domestic Pigs-Experience of the Baltic States

In the event of an outbreak of African swine fever (ASF) in pig farms, the European Union (EU) legislation requires the establishment of a restricted zone, consisting of a protection zone with a radius of at least 3 km and a surveillance zone with a radius of at least 10 km around the outbreak. The main purpose of the restricted zone is to stop the spread of the disease by detecting further outbreaks. We evaluated the effectiveness and necessity of the restricted zone in the Baltic States by looking at how many secondary outbreaks were detected inside and outside the protection and surveillance zones and by what means. Secondary outbreaks are outbreaks with an epidemiological link to a primary outbreak while a primary outbreak is an outbreak that is not epidemiologically linked to any previous outbreak. From 2014 to 2023, a total of 272 outbreaks in domestic pigs were confirmed, where 263 (96.7%) were primary outbreaks and 9 (3.3%) were secondary outbreaks. Eight of the secondary outbreaks were detected by epidemiological enquiry and one by passive surveillance. Epidemiological enquiries are legally required investigations on an outbreak farm to find out when and how the virus entered the farm and to obtain information on contact farms where the ASF virus may have been spread. Of the eight secondary outbreaks detected by epidemiological investigations, six were within the protection zone, one was within the surveillance zone and one outside the restricted zone. Epidemiological investigations were therefore the most effective means of detecting secondary outbreaks, whether inside or outside the restricted zones, while active surveillance was not effective. Active surveillance are legally prescribed activities carried out by the competent authorities in the restricted zones. Furthermore, as ASF is no longer a rare and exotic disease in the EU, it could be listed as a "Category B" disease, which in turn would allow for more flexibility and "tailor-made" control measures, e.g., regarding the size of the restricted zone.

Active Participatory Regional Surveillance for Notifiable Swine Pathogens

We evaluated an active participatory design for the regional surveillance of notifiable swine pathogens based on testing 10 samples collected by farm personnel in each participating farm. To evaluate the performance of the design, public domain software was used to simulate the introduction and spread of a pathogen among 17,521 farms in a geographic region of 1,615,246 km2. Using the simulated pathogen spread data, the probability of detecting ≥ 1 positive farms in the region was estimated as a function of the percent of participating farms (20%, 40%, 60%, 80%, 100%), farm-level detection probability (10%, 20%, 30%, 40%, 50%), and regional farm-level prevalence. At 0.1% prevalence (18 positive farms among 17,521 farms) and a farm-level detection probability of 30%, the participatory surveillance design achieved 67%, 90%, and 97% probability of detecting ≥ 1 positive farms in the region when producer participation was 20%, 40%, and 60%, respectively. The cost analysis assumed that 10 individual pig samples per farm would be pooled into 2 samples (5 pigs each) for testing. Depending on the specimen collected (serum or swab sample) and test format (nucleic acid or antibody detection), the cost per round of sampling ranged from EUR 0.017 to EUR 0.032 (USD 0.017 to USD 0.034) per pig in the region. Thus, the analysis suggested that an active regional participatory surveillance design could achieve detection at low prevalence and at a sustainable cost.

The many boar identities: understanding difference and change in the geographies of European wild boar management

Wildlife management across Europe is increasingly characterised by a 'war on wild boar'. In response to epidemiological and economic threats to pig production and agriculture, state agencies, policymakers and hunting organizations have altered their management as they attempt to contain wild boar. Through a cross-section overview of eight European countries with differentiated strategies - the Czech Republic, France, Germany, Great Britain, Norway, Poland, Spain, and Sweden - we analyze five critical components of contemporary wild boar management: categorizing, responsibilizing, calculating, controlling, and sanitizing. We consider three critical triggers that change how wild boar and, by extension, a range of other 'wild' species are managed in relation to the aforementioned categories: (over)abundance and population growth, biosecurity crises, and technological innovation. While these triggers, on one hand, might streamline transborder management policies, we show how wild boar also uproot longstanding wildlife management cultures by transforming hunting traditions, landowner-hunter relations and meat handling practices.

Feeding Spray-Dried Porcine Plasma to Pigs Reduces African Swine Fever Virus Load in Infected Pigs and Delays Virus Transmission-Study 1

The objective of this study was to evaluate the potential benefits of feeding spray-dried porcine plasma (SDPP) to pigs infected with African swine fever virus (ASFV). Two groups of twelve weaned pigs each were fed with CONVENTIONAL or 8% SDPP enriched diets. Two pigs (trojans)/group) were injected intramuscularly with the pandemic ASFV (Georgia 2007/01) and comingled with the rest of the pigs (1:5 trojan:naïve ratio) to simulate a natural route of transmission. Trojans developed ASF and died within the first week after inoculation, but contact pigs did not develop ASF, viremia, or seroconversion. Therefore, three more trojans per group were introduced to optimize the ASFV transmission (1:2 trojan:naïve ratio). Blood, nasal, and rectal swabs were weekly harvested, and at end of the study ASFV-target organs collected. After the second exposure, rectal temperature of conventionally fed contact pigs increased >40.5 °C while fever was delayed in the SDPP contact pigs. Additionally, PCR Ct values in blood, secretions, and tissue samples were significantly lower (p < 0.05) for CONVENTIONAL compared to SDPP contact pigs. Under these study conditions, contact exposed pigs fed SDPP had delayed ASFV transmission and reduced virus load, likely by enhanced specific T-cell priming after the first ASFV-exposure.

Estimation of a Within-Herd Transmission Rate for African Swine Fever in Vietnam

We describe results from a panel study in which pigs from a 17-sow African swine fever (ASF) positive herd in Thái Bình province, Vietnam, were followed over time to record the date of onset of ASF signs and the date of death from ASF. Our objectives were to (1) fit a susceptible-exposed-infectious-removed disease model to the data with transmission coefficients estimated using approximate Bayesian computation; (2) provide commentary on how a model of this type might be used to provide decision support for disease control authorities. For the outbreak in this herd, the median of the average latent period was 10 days (95% HPD (highest posterior density interval): 2 to 19 days), and the median of the average duration of infectiousness was 3 days (95% HPD: 2 to 4 days). The estimated median for the transmission coefficient was 3.3 (95% HPD: 0.4 to 8.9) infectious contacts per ASF-infectious pig per day. The estimated median for the basic reproductive number, R₀, was 10 (95% HPD: 1.1 to 30). Our estimates of the basic reproductive number R₀ were greater than estimates of R₀ for ASF reported previously. The results presented in this study may be used to estimate the number of pigs expected to be showing clinical signs at a given number of days following an estimated incursion date. This will allow sample size calculations, with or without adjustment to account for less than perfect sensitivity of clinical examination, to be used to determine the appropriate number of pigs to examine to detect at least one with the disease. A second use of the results of this study would be to inform the equation-based within-herd spread components of stochastic agent-based and hybrid simulation models of ASF.

Prediction of the spread of African swine fever through pig and carcass movements in Thailand using a network analysis and diffusion model

Background

African swine fever (ASF) is a serious contagious viral disease of pigs that affects the pig industry. This study aimed to evaluate the possible African swine fever (ASF) distribution using network analysis and a diffusion model through live pig, carcass, and pig product movement data.

Material and Methods

Empirical movement data from Thailand for the year 2019 were used, and expert opinions were sought to evaluate network properties and the diffusion model. The networks were presented as live pig movement and carcass movement data at the provincial and district levels. For network analysis, a descriptive network analysis was performed using outdegree, indegree, betweenness, fragmentation, and power law distribution, and cutpoints were used to describe movement patterns. For the diffusion model, we simulated each network using spatially different infected locations, patterns, and initial infection sites. Based on expert opinions, the initial infection site, the probability of ASF occurrence, and the probability of the initial infected adopter were selected for the appropriated network. In this study, we also simulated networks under varying network parameters to predict the infection speed.

Results and Conclusions

The total number of movements recorded was 2,594,364. These were divided into 403,408 (403,408/2,594,364; 15.55%) for live pigs and 2,190,956 (2,190,956/2,594,364; 84.45%) for carcasses. We found that carcass movement at the provincial level showed the highest outdegree (mean = 342.554, standard deviation (SD) = 900.528) and indegree values (mean = 342.554, SD = 665.509). In addition, the outdegree and indegree presented similar mean values and the degree distributions of both district networks followed a power-law function. The network of live pigs at provincial level showed the highest value for betweenness (mean = 0.011, SD = 0.017), and the network of live pigs at provincial level showed the highest value for fragmentation (mean = 0.027, SD = 0.005). Our simulation data indicated that the disease occurred randomly due to live pig and carcass movements along the central and western regions of Thailand, causing the rapid spread of ASF. Without control measures, it could spread to all provinces within 5- and 3-time units and in all districts within 21- and 30-time units for the network of live pigs and carcasses, respectively. This study assists the authorities to plan control and preventive measures and limit economic losses caused by ASF.

Modeling the accuracy of a novel PCR and antibody ELISA for African swine fever virus detection using Bayesian latent class analysis

Introduction

Diagnostic test evaluation for African swine fever (ASF) in field settings like Vietnam is critical to understanding test application in intended populations for surveillance and control strategies. Bayesian latent class analysis (BLCA) uses the results of multiple imperfect tests applied to an individual of unknown disease status to estimate the diagnostic sensitivity and specificity of each test, forgoing the need for a reference test.

Methods

Here, we estimated and compared the diagnostic sensitivity and specificity of a novel indirect ELISA (iELISA) for ASF virus p30 antibody (Innoceleris LLC.) and the VetAlert™ ASF virus DNA Test Kit (qPCR, Tetracore Inc.) in field samples from Vietnam by assuming that disease status 1) is known and 2) is unknown using a BLCA model. In this cross-sectional study, 398 paired, individual swine serum/oral fluid (OF) samples were collected from 30 acutely ASF-affected farms, 37 chronically ASF-affected farms, and 20 ASF-unaffected farms in Vietnam. Samples were tested using both diagnostic assays. Diagnostic sensitivity was calculated assuming samples from ASF-affected farms were true positives and diagnostic sensitivity by assuming samples from unaffected farms were true negatives. ROC curves were plotted and AUC calculated for each test/sample combination. For comparison, a conditionally dependent, four test/sample combination, three population BLCA model was fit.

Results

When considering all assumed ASF-affected samples, qPCR sensitivity was higher for serum (65.2%, 95% Confidence Interval [CI] 58.1-71.8) and OF (52%, 95%CI 44.8-59.2) compared to the iELISA (serum: 42.9%, 95%CI 35.9-50.1; OF: 33.3%, 95%CI 26.8-40.4). qPCR-serum had the highest AUC (0.895, 95%CI 0.863-0.928). BLCA estimates were nearly identical to those obtained when assuming disease status and were robust to changes in priors. qPCR sensitivity was considerably higher than ELISA in the acutely-affected population, while ELISA sensitivity was higher in the chronically-affected population. Specificity was nearly perfect for all test/sample types.

Discussion

The effect of disease chronicity on sensitivity and specificity could not be well characterized here due to limited data, but future studies should aim to elucidate these trends to understand the best use of virus and antibody detection methods for ASF. Results presented here will help the design of surveillance and control strategies in Vietnam and other countries affected by ASF.

Survey of wild boar hunter interactions with pig farming in central Europe

African swine fever (ASF) is a fatal animal disease without zoonotic potential but greatly impacts human well-being, especially in the most vulnerable human communities. In Europe, ASF concerns mostly the wildlife domain of health. The main vector of the disease is confirmed to be the wild boar, though long-distance jumps of the infection are due to anthropogenic effects. This study aimed to evaluate the potential role of hunting assistant personnel (beaters and carcass handlers) in ASF spread in Hungary. Based on a personal interview survey, we attempted to identify the epidemiological risk caused by hunting activities and the hunting personnel. The interviews with 58 hunting workers confirmed that an extent backyard pig sector (13 pig farmers) and pork production system (31 pork producers) existed within the study region out of the authorities' sight. Two pig farmers did not wear special working clothes for pig caring, seven pork producers disposed of slaughter offal in the settlements periphery, and six persons regularly contacted distant pig farms. The revealed knowledge, attitude, and practice of the questioned pig farmers suggested that this sector would be very vulnerable in an epidemic situation; moreover, backyard farms would cause a great risk for wildboar populations. Considering that the study region is the third poorest region of Hungary, these findings called attention to the high epidemiologic risk of socioeconomic inequality between different regions within the European Union.

Genetic Characterization of the Central Variable Region in African Swine Fever Virus Isolates in the Russian Federation from 2013 to 2017

African swine fever virus (ASFV), classified as genotype II, was introduced into Georgia in 2007, and from there, it spread quickly and extensively across the Caucasus to Russia, Europe and Asia. The molecular epidemiology and evolution of these isolates are predominantly investigated by means of phylogenetic analysis based on complete genome sequences. Since this is a costly and time-consuming endeavor, short genomic regions containing informative polymorphisms are pursued and utilized instead. In this study, sequences of the central variable region (CVR) located within the B602L gene were determined for 55 ASFV isolates submitted from 526 active African swine fever (ASF) outbreaks occurring in 23 different regions across the Russian Federation (RF) between 2013 and 2017. The new sequences were compared to previously published data available from Genbank, representing isolates from Europe and Asia. The sequences clustered into six distinct groups. Isolates from Estonia clustered into groups 3 and 4, whilst sequences from the RF were divided into the remaining four groups. Two of these groups (5 and 6) exclusively contained isolates from the RF, while group 2 included isolates from Russia as well as Chechnya, Georgia, Armenia, Azerbaijan and Ukraine. In contrast, group 1 was the largest, containing sequences from the RF, Europe and Asia, and was represented by the sequence from the first isolate in Georgia in 2007. Based on these results, it is recommended that the CVR sequences contain significant informative polymorphisms to be used as a marker for investigating the epidemiology and spread of genotype II ASFVs circulating in the RF, Europe and Asia.

Analysis of surveillance and prevention plan for African Swine Fever in Italy in 2020

Background

African Swine Fever (ASF) is a challenge for pig health worldwide. The disease has spread to multiple countries on five continents. ASF‐free countries need to apply effective strategies to prevent the introduction of infection.

Methods

Italy implemented a surveillance and prevention plan for ASF in 2020, supported by a dedicated information system. Several pillars for action have been identified: passive surveillance in both domestic pigs and wild boar populations, verification of the implementation of biosecurity measures on farms and an awareness campaign for all involved stakeholders.

Results

There were some regional differences in the management of passive surveillance. In order to identify all critical points and apply corrective measures, regional authorities were called to carry out a gap analysis exercise in July 2020. There were an adequate number of samples collected from wild boar but the number of samples collected from domestic pigs was below the target in most regions. Furthermore, sample distribution within the country was not homogeneous.

Conclusions

During the forthcoming year, some issues must be addressed in order to establish an effective early detection system in Italian ASF‐free regions.

Eight Years of African Swine Fever in the Baltic States: Epidemiological Reflections

African swine fever (ASF) was first detected in Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia in 2014 and has since been circulating in the Baltic States with a similar epidemiological course characterized by persistence of the disease in the wild boar population and occasional spill-over infections in domestic pigs. The aim of the present study was to evaluate surveillance data on ASF in wild boar from the three countries to improve our understanding of the course of the disease. ASF surveillance and wild boar population data of the countries were analyzed. In all three countries, a decrease in the prevalence of ASF virus-positive wild boar was observed over time. Although somewhat delayed, an increase in the seroprevalence was seen. At the same time, the wild boar population density decreased significantly. Towards the end of the study period, the wild boar population recovered, and the prevalence of ASF virus-positive wild boar increased again, whereas the seroprevalence decreased. The decreasing virus prevalence has obviously led to virus circulation at a very low level. Together with the decreasing wild boar population density, the detection of ASF-infected wild boar and thus ASF control has become increasingly difficult. The course of ASF and its continuous spread clearly demonstrate the necessity to scrutinize current ASF surveillance and control strategies fundamentally and to consider new transdisciplinary approaches.

Exact Bayesian inference of epidemiological parameters from mortality data: application to African swine fever virus

Pathogens such as African swine fever virus (ASFV) are an increasing threat to global livestock production with implications for economic well-being and food security. Quantification of epidemiological parameters, such as transmission rates and latent and infectious periods, is critical to inform efficient disease control. Parameter estimation for livestock disease systems is often reliant upon transmission experiments, which provide valuable insights in the epidemiology of disease but which may also be unrepresentative of at-risk populations and incur economic and animal welfare costs. Routinely collected mortality data are a potential source of readily available and representative information regarding disease transmission early in outbreaks. We develop methodology to conduct exact Bayesian parameter inference from mortality data using reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo incorporating multiple routes of transmission (e.g. within-farm secondary and background transmission from external sources). We use this methodology to infer epidemiological parameters for ASFV using data from outbreaks on nine farms in the Russian Federation. This approach improves inference on transmission rates in comparison with previous methods based on approximate Bayesian computation, allows better estimation of time of introduction and could readily be applied to other outbreaks or pathogens.

Charles KM, Boyer TC, Goldsmith T, Cardona CJ, Corzo CA, Culhane MR. African swine fever detection and transmission estimates using homogeneous versus heterogeneous model formulation in stochastic simulations within pig premises

Background

African swine fever (ASF) is one of the most important foreign animal diseases to the U.S. swine industry. Stakeholders in the swine production sector are on high alert as they witness the devastation of ongoing outbreaks in some of its most important trade partner countries. Efforts to improve preparedness for ASF outbreak management are proceeding in earnest and mathematical modeling is an integral part of these efforts.

Aim

This study aimed to assess the impact on within-herd transmission dynamics of ASF when the models used to simulate transmission assume there is homogeneous mixing of animals within a barn.

Methods

Barn-level heterogeneity was explicitly captured using a stochastic, individual pig-based, heterogeneous transmission model that considers three types of infection transmission, (1) within-pen via nose-to-nose contact; (2) between-pen via nose-to-nose contact with pigs in adjacent pens; and (3) both between- and within-pen via distance-independent mechanisms (e.g., via fomites). Predictions were compared between the heterogeneous and the homogeneous Gillespie models.

Results

Results showed that the predicted mean number of infectious pigs at specific time points differed greatly between the homogeneous and heterogeneous models for scenarios with low levels of between-pen contacts via distance-independent pathways and the differences between the two model predictions were more pronounced for the slow contact rate scenario. The heterogeneous transmission model results also showed that it may take significantly longer to detect ASF, particularly in large barns when transmission predominantly occurs via nose-to-nose contact between pigs in adjacent pens.

Conclusion

The findings emphasize the need for completing preliminary explorations when working with homogeneous mixing models to ascertain their suitability to predict disease outcomes.

Wild Boar Events and the Veterinarization of Multispecies Coexistence

By considering the emergence and threat of African Swine Fever (ASF) in Europe, this paper demonstrates the growing role of veterinary rationales in reframing contemporary human-wild boar coexistence. Through comparative ethnographies of human-wild boar relations in the Czech Republic, Spain and England, it shows that coexistence is not a predictable and steady process but is also demarked by points of radical change in form, course and atmosphere. Such moments, or wild boar events, can lead to the (re-)formation or magnified influence of certain discourses, practices and power relations in determining strategies of bio-governance. Specifically, this paper highlights how the spread of ASF in Europe has accelerated an already ongoing process of veterinarization, understood as the growing prominence of veterinary sciences in the mediation and reorganization of contemporary socioecologies. This example highlights how veterinary logics increasingly influence localized human-wildlife relations and, through analogous practices of biosecurity and control, also connect different places and geographic contexts.

Understanding the transmission of African swine fever in wild boars of South Korea: A simulation study for parameter estimation

Since the introduction of African swine fever (ASF) to Georgia in 2007, the disease has spread to many other countries including South Korea. Initial detection of ASF from wild boars (WB) in South Korea was reported in early October 2019. Since then, more than a thousand WB samples collected from the northern part of the country have been confirmed as ASF positive (2.9% of ASF positivity among WB samples collected until June 2020), indicating that the disease is endemic in the WB populations. To control the disease, multiple layers of fence-lines have been erected. Nevertheless, outbreaks continuously occurred across the fence, requiring a better understanding of the spatial transmission mechanism of ASF in WBs. Hence, we developed a novel ASF transmission model to estimate ecological and epidemiological parameters related to the spread of the disease in the WB population of South Korea. The results showed that roads and rivers were effective to prevent the spread, reducing the transmission rate to approximately 37% on average. Only a limited level of reduction was indicated via fence-lines, implying erection of fences might be considered as a temporary measure to delay the spread. This study also revealed that the probability of ASF transmission to adjacent habitats considerably decreased with increasing distance, supporting the slow spatial transmission speed reported from other European countries. Considering that elucidation of ASF dynamics in WB is crucial to mitigate the impact of the disease, we believe this study provides some useful ecological and epidemiological implications to control the disease in future.

African Swine Fever Re-Emerging in Estonia: The Role of Seropositive Wild Boar from an Epidemiological Perspective

African swine fever (ASF) emerged in Estonia in 2014. From February 2019 to August 2020, no pigs or wild boar tested positive for ASF virus (ASFV), only ASFV-specific antibodies could be detected in shot wild boar. However, ASF recently re-emerged in wild boar. We tested three hypotheses that might explain the current situation: (i) ASFV may have been present throughout, but at a prevalence below the detection limit; (ii) seropositive wild boar may have remained infectious (i.e., virus-carriers) and kept the epidemic going; or (iii) ASF was gone for 1.5 years, but was recently re-introduced. Using Estonian surveillance data, the sensitivity of the surveillance system and the confidence in freedom from ASF were estimated. Furthermore, the detection probability was determined and cluster analyses were performed to investigate the role of serological positive wild boar. The results suggest that the surveillance system was not able to detect virus circulation at a design prevalence below 1%. With respect to the confidence in freedom from ASF, the results indicate that circulating virus should have been detected over time, if the prevalence was ≥2%. However, the decreasing wild boar population density and ongoing surveillance activities made ASFV circulation at a low prevalence unlikely. Cluster analyses provided no evidence for a significant accumulation of serologically positive wild boar in temporal connection to the re-emergence of ASFV. Further targeted research, such as long-term experimental studies and molecular epidemiology, is necessary to improve our knowledge on the epidemiology of ASF and to control the disease more effectively.

The golden jackal (Canis aureus) and the African swine fever pandemic: Its role is controversial but not negligible (a diet analysis study)

Background

In Europe, the African swine fever (ASF) pandemic mostly affects the environmental domain of health, which is a strongly human‐impacted ecosystem. However, the current control strategies focus solely on the wild boar and tend to disregard other epidemiologically relevant elements of the ecosystem.

Objectives

This study investigated the potential impact of the golden jackal on the surveillance effort and disease transmission.

Methods

For this reason, the authors analysed the content of 277 stomachs of this canid species within its westernmost inhabitant population, in order to determine the amount of suid remains, disposed.

Results

The findings confirmed that in a densely populated wild boar habitat, the main diet component of jackals was wild boar all the year round. The jackals disposed of 0.3–0.6 kg/km²/day offals that potentially contained suid remains. On the other hand, the scavenging activity removed the most important target objects on which the passive surveillance of ASF should be based.

Conclusions

This study cannot determine whether canid scavengers positively or negatively influence the control efforts; however, the impact of the jackal should not be disregarded. The results warn the necessity of a multidisciplinary approach to complex epidemiological situations within different ecosystems.

African Swine Fever in Wild Boar (Poland 2020): Passive and Active Surveillance Analysis and Further Perspectives

African swine fever (ASF) is a fatal hemorrhagic disease of wild boar and domestic pigs which has been present in Poland since 2014. By 2020, the ASF virus (ASFV) spread across Central, Eastern and Western Europe (including Germany), and Asian countries (including China, Vietnam, and South Korea). The national ASF eradication and prevention program includes continuous passive (wild boar found dead and road-killed wild boar) and active (hunted wild boar) surveillance. The main goal of this study was to analyze the dynamic of the spread of ASF in the wild boar population across the territory of Poland in 2020. In that year in Poland, in total 6191 ASF-positive wild boar were declared. Most of them were confirmed in a group of animals found dead. The conducted statistical analysis indicates that the highest chance of obtaining an ASF-positive result in wild boar was during the winter months, from January to March, and in December 2020. Despite the biosecurity measures implemented by holdings of domestic pigs, the disease also occurred in 109 pig farms. The role of ASF surveillance in the wild boar population is crucial to apply more effective and tailored measures of disease control and eradication. The most essential measures to maintain sustainable production of domestic pigs in Poland include effective management of the wild boar population, along with strict implementation of biosecurity measures by domestic pig producers.

African Swine Fever in Wild Boar in Europe-A Review

The introduction of genotype II African swine fever (ASF) virus, presumably from Africa into Georgia in 2007, and its continuous spread through Europe and Asia as a panzootic disease of suids, continues to have a huge socio-economic impact. ASF is characterized by hemorrhagic fever leading to a high case/fatality ratio in pigs. In Europe, wild boar are especially affected. This review summarizes the currently available knowledge on ASF in wild boar in Europe. The current ASF panzootic is characterized by self-sustaining cycles of infection in the wild boar population. Spill-over and spill-back events occur from wild boar to domestic pigs and vice versa. The social structure of wild boar populations and the spatial behavior of the animals, a variety of ASF virus (ASFV) transmission mechanisms and persistence in the environment complicate the modeling of the disease. Control measures focus on the detection and removal of wild boar carcasses, in which ASFV can remain infectious for months. Further measures include the reduction in wild boar density and the limitation of wild boar movements through fences. Using these measures, the Czech Republic and Belgium succeeded in eliminating ASF in their territories, while the disease spread in others. So far, no vaccine is available to protect wild boar or domestic pigs reliably against ASF.

Critical Evaluation of Cross-Sectoral Collaborations to Inform the Implementation of the "One Health" Approach in Guadeloupe

In Guadeloupe, a French overseas territory located in the Eastern Caribbean, infectious and non-infectious diseases, loss of biodiversity, natural disasters and global change threaten the health and well-being of animals, plants, and people. Implementing the “One Health” (OH) approach is crucial to reduce the archipelago's vulnerability to these health threats. However, OH remains underdeveloped in Guadeloupe, hampering efficient and effective intersectoral and transdisciplinary collaborations for disease surveillance and control. A multidisciplinary research group of volunteer researchers working in Guadeloupe, with collective expertise in infectious diseases, undertook a study to identify key attributes for OH operationalization by reviewing past and current local collaborative health initiatives and analyzing how much they mobilized the OH framework. The research group developed and applied an operational OH framework to assess critically collaborative initiatives addressing local health issues. Based on a literature review, a set of 13 opinion-based key criteria was defined. The criteria and associated scoring were measured through semi-directed interviews guided by a questionnaire to critically evaluate four initiatives in animal, human, plant, and environmental health research and epidemiological surveillance. Gaps, levers, and prospects were identified that will help health communities in Guadeloupe envision how to implement the OH approach to better address local health challenges. The methodology is simple, generic, and pragmatic and relies on existing resources. It can be transposed and adapted to other contexts to improve effectiveness and efficiency of OH initiatives, based on lessons-learned of local past or current multi-interdisciplinary and intersectoral initiatives.

Is transportation a risk factor for African swine fever transmission in Australia: a review

African swine fever (ASF) is a viral disease of the pigs that was first described in Africa during the early part of the twentieth century. The disease has periodically occurred outside of Africa, including an ongoing epidemic in Europe and Asia that started in 2007; the disease has never occurred in Australia or New Zealand. Once introduced into a country, spread can occur through direct and indirect routes of transmission. Infected feral pig populations have the potential to act as a long-term reservoir for the virus, making eradication difficult. Just before and throughout the period of clinical signs, ASF virus is shed in oronasal fluids, urine, faeces and blood. This results in contamination of the pig's environment, including flooring, equipment and vehicles. Transportation-related risk factors therefore are likely to play an important role in ASF spread, though evidence thus far has been largely anecdotal. In addition to the existing AUSVETPLAN ASF plan, efforts should be made to improve transportation biosecurity, from the time a pig leaves the farm to its destination. Collection of data that could quantify the capabilities and capacity of Australia to clean and disinfect livestock trucks would help to determine if private and/or public sector investment should be made in this area of biosecurity. No peer-reviewed research was identified that described a specific process for cleaning and disinfecting a livestock truck known to be contaminated with ASF virus, though literature suggests that transportation is an important route of transmission for moving the virus between farms and countries.

The impact of African swine fever virus on smallholder village pig production: An outbreak investigation in Lao PDR

African swine fever virus (ASFV) causes a deadly disease of pigs which spread through southeast Asia in 2019. We investigated one of the first outbreaks of ASFV in Lao People's Democratic Republic amongst smallholder villages of Thapangtong District, Savannakhet Province. In this study, two ASFV affected villages were compared to two unaffected villages. Evidence of ASFV‐like clinical signs appeared in pig herds as early as May 2019, with median epidemic days on 1 and 18 June in the two villages, respectively. Using participatory epidemiology mapping techniques, we found statistically significant spatial clustering in both outbreaks (p < 0.001). Villagers reported known risk factors for ASFV transmission – such as free‐ranging management systems and wild boar access – in all four villages. The villagers reported increased pig trader activity from Vietnam before the outbreaks; however, the survey did not determine a single outbreak source. The outbreak caused substantial household financial losses with an average of nine pigs lost to the disease, and Monte Carlo analysis estimated this to be USD 215 per household. ASFV poses a significant threat to food and financial security in smallholder communities such as Thapangtong, where 40.6% of the district's population are affected by poverty. This study shows ASFV management in the region will require increased local government resources, knowledge of informal trader activity and wild boar monitoring alongside education and support to address intra‐village risk factors such as free‐ranging, incorrect waste disposal and swill feeding.

African Swine Fever and Its Epidemiological Course in Lithuanian Wild Boar

African swine fever (ASF) has been present in Lithuania since 2014. It is mainly the wild boar population that is affected. Currently, little is known about the epidemiological course of ASF in Lithuania. In the present study, ASF surveillance data from 2016-2021 were analyzed. The numbers of samples taken from hunted wild boar and wild boar found dead per year and month were recorded and the prevalence was estimated for each study month and administrative unit. A Bayesian space-time model was used to calculate the temporal trend of the prevalence estimates. In addition, population data were analyzed on a yearly basis. Most samples were investigated in 2016 and 2017 and originated from hunted animals. Prevalence estimates of ASF virus-positive wild boar decreased from May 2019 onwards. Seroprevalence estimates showed a slight decrease at the same time, but they increased again at the end of the study period. A significant decrease in the population density was observed over time. The results of the study show that ASF is still present in the Lithuanian wild boar population. A joint interdisciplinary effort is needed to identify weaknesses in the control of ASF in Lithuania and to combat the disease more successfully.

Evaluation of oral fluid as an aggregate sample for early detection of African swine fever virus using four independent pen-based experimental studies

The sustained spread of African swine fever (ASF) virus throughout much of the world has made ASF a global animal health priority, with an increased emphasis on enhancing preparedness to prevent, detect and respond to a potential outbreak of ASF virus (ASFV). In the event of ASFV entry to the North American swine population, enhanced surveillance and diagnostic testing strategies will be critical to facilitate progressive response and eradication of the disease. Compared to individual animal sampling, pen-based oral fluid collection for active surveillance is a non-invasive alternative that is less resource and time-intensive. To evaluate the feasibility of using rope-based oral fluid for early detection of ASFV, four independent animal experiments were conducted in weaned pigs housed in numbers that mimic the industry settings, utilising either highly virulent ASFV Georgia 2007/1 strain or moderately virulent ASFV Malta'78 strain. Pen-based oral fluid and individual oropharyngeal swabs were collected daily and blood samples from each animal were collected every other day. All samples were subsequently tested for ASFV by real-time PCR. ASFV genome was detected in individual blood samples as early as one day post-infection and detected in oral fluids at low-to-moderate levels as early as 3-5 days post-infection in all four independent experiments. These results suggest that pen-based oral fluid samples may be used to supplement the use of traditional samples for rapid detection of ASFV during ASF surveillance.

Research priorities to fill knowledge gaps in the control of African swine fever: possible transmission of African swine fever virus by vectors

The European Commission requested that EFSA provide study designs for the investigation of four research domains according to major gaps in knowledge identified by EFSA in a report published in 2019: (i) the patterns of seasonality of African Swine Fever (ASF) in wild boar and domestic pigs in the EU; (ii) the epidemiology of ASF in wild boar; (iii) survival of ASF virus (ASFV) in the environment and (iv) transmission of ASFV by vectors. In this Scientific Opinion, the fourth research domain on ASFV transmission by vectors is addressed. Eleven research objectives were proposed by the EFSA working group and broader ASF expert networks, such as ASF stop, ENETWILD, VectorNet, AHAW network and the AHAW Panel Experts. Of the 11 research objectives, six were prioritised based on the following set of criteria: (1) the impact on ASF management; (2) the feasibility or practicality to carry out the study; (3) the potential implementation of study results in practice; (4) a possible short time-frame study (< 1 year); (5) the novelty of the study and (6) if it was a priority for risk managers. The prioritised research objectives were: (I) Studies on the potential vector fauna at the pig-wild boar interface and the feeding preference of blood-feeding potential vectors in ASF-affected areas; (II) Assessment of the efficacy of insect screens on indoor/outdoor pig holdings to prevent the entry of blood-sucking vectors (i.e. Stomoxys) in ASF endemic areas; (III) Assess the role of mechanical vectors in the virus transmission in ASF-affected areas; (IV) Distribution of the potential mechanical transmission vectors in ASF-affected areas of the EU; (V) ASFV transmission by synanthropic birds; and (VI) Assessment on the presence/absence of the soft tick Ornithodoros erraticus in ASF-affected areas in Europe. For each of the selected research objectives, a research protocol has been proposed considering the potential impact on ASF management and the period of 1 year for the research activities.

Clear phylogeographic pattern and genetic structure of wild boar Sus scrofa population in Central and Eastern Europe

The wild boar Sus scrofa is one of the widely spread ungulate species in Europe, yet the origin and genetic structure of the population inhabiting Central and Eastern Europe are not well recognized. We analysed 101 newly obtained sequences of complete mtDNA genomes and 548 D-loop sequences of the species and combined them with previously published data. We identified five phylogenetic clades in Europe with clear phylogeographic pattern. Two of them occurred mainly in western and central part of the continent, while the range of the third clade covered North-Eastern, Central and South-Eastern Europe. The two other clades had rather restricted distribution. In Central Europe, we identified a contact zone of three mtDNA clades. Population genetic structure reflected clear phylogeographic pattern of wild boar in this part of Europe. The contribution of lineages originating from the southern (Dinaric-Balkan) and eastern (northern cost of the Black Sea) areas to the observed phylogeographic pattern of the species in Central and Eastern Europe was larger than those from the regions located in southern France, Iberian, and Italian Peninsulas. The present work was the first mitogenomic analysis conducted in Central and Eastern Europe to study genetic diversity and structure of wild boar population.

Evidence-Based African Swine Fever Policies: Do We Address Virus and Host Adequately?

African swine fever (ASF) is one of the most threatening diseases for the pig farming sector worldwide. Prevention, control and eradication remain a challenge, especially in the absence of an effective vaccine or cure and despite the relatively low contagiousness of this pathogen in contrast to Classical Swine Fever or Foot and Mouth disease, for example. Usually lethal in pigs and wild boar, this viral transboundary animal disease has the potential to significantly disrupt global trade and threaten food security. This paper outlines the importance of a disease-specific legal framework, based on the latest scientific evidence in order to improve ASF control. It compares the legal basis for ASF control in a number of pig-producing regions globally, considering diverse production systems, taking into account current scientific evidence in relation to ASF spread and control. We argue that blanket policies that do not take into account disease-relevant characteristics of a biological agent, nor the specifics under which the host species are kept, can hamper disease control efforts and may prove disproportionate.

Intestinal Viral Loads and Inactivation Kinetics of Livestock Viruses Relevant for Natural Casing Production: a Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Animal intestines are the source of edible sausage casings, which are traded worldwide and may come from areas where notifiable infectious animal diseases are prevalent. To estimate the risks of virus contamination, knowledge about the quantity of virus and decimal reduction values of the standard preservation method by salting is of great importance. A literature search, based on the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guidelines, was performed in search engine CAB Abstracts to determine the viral load of 14 relevant animal viruses in natural casings or intestines. Only a very limited number of scientific publications per virus were found and viral loads in the intestines varied from high for ASFV (five publications), BVDV (3), CSFV (6), PPRV (3), RPV (2) and TGEV (3) to moderate for PEDV (2) and SVDV (3), low for HEV (2) and FMDV (5), very low for VESV (1) and negative for PrV (2) and VSV (1). PRRSV was found in intestines, however, viral titers were not published. Three viruses (BVDV, CSFV and PPRV) with high viral loads were selected to search for their inactivation kinetics. For casings, no inactivation data were found, however, thermal inactivation data of these viruses were available, but differed in quantity, quality and matrices. In conclusion, important data gaps still exist when it comes to the quantitative inactivation of viruses in sausage casings or livestock intestines.

With or without a Vaccine-A Review of Complementary and Alternative Approaches to Managing African Swine Fever in Resource-Constrained Smallholder Settings

The spectacular recent spread of African swine fever (ASF) in Eastern Europe and Asia has been strongly associated, as it is in the endemic areas in Africa, with free-ranging pig populations and low-biosecurity backyard pig farming. Managing the disease in wild boar populations and in circumstances where the disease in domestic pigs is largely driven by poverty is particularly challenging and may remain so even in the presence of effective vaccines. The only option currently available to prevent ASF is strict biosecurity. Among small-scale pig farmers biosecurity measures are often considered unaffordable or impossible to implement. However, as outbreaks of ASF are also unaffordable, the adoption of basic biosecurity measures is imperative to achieve control and prevent losses. Biosecurity measures can be adapted to fit smallholder contexts, culture and costs. A longer-term approach that could prove valuable particularly for free-ranging pig populations would be exploitation of innate resistance to the virus, which is fully effective in wild African suids and has been observed in some domestic pig populations in areas of prolonged endemicity. We explore available options for preventing ASF in terms of feasibility, practicality and affordability among domestic pig populations that are at greatest risk of exposure to ASF.

Application of the World Café method to discuss the efficiency of African swine fever control strategies in European wild boar (Sus scrofa) populations

In the current epidemic of African swine fever (ASF) in Europe, the maintenance and spread of the disease among wild boar populations remains the most important epidemiological challenge. Affected and at-risk countries have addressed this situation using a diversity of wild boar management methods with varying levels of success. The methods applied range from conventional animal disease intervention measures (zoning, stakeholder awareness campaigns, increased surveillance and biosecurity measures) to measures aimed at reducing wild boar population movements (fencing and baiting/feeding) or population numbers (intensive hunting). To assess the perceived efficiency and acceptance of such measures in the context of a focal introduction of ASF, the authors organised a participatory workshop inviting experts from the fields of wildlife management, wild boar ecology, sociology, epidemiology and animal disease management to discuss the advantages and disadvantages of various control approaches. The discussions between professionals from different countries took place using the World Café method. This paper documents the World Café method as a tool for increasing the level of participation in multi-stakeholder group discussions, and describes the outputs of the workshop pertaining to the control measures. In summary, the World Café method was perceived as an efficient tool for quickly grasping comprehensive perspectives from the professionals involved in managing ASF and wild boar populations, while promoting engagement in multi-disciplinary discussions. The exercise achieved a good overview of the perceived efficiency and applicability of the different control methods and generated useful recommendations for ASF control in wild boar populations in Europe.

Quantifying the dynamics of pig movements improves targeted disease surveillance and control plans

Tracking animal movements over time may fundamentally determine the success of disease control interventions. In commercial pig production growth stages determine animal transportation schedule, thus it generates time-varying contact networks showed to influence the dynamics of disease spread. In this study, we reconstructed pig networks of one Brazilian state from 2017 to 2018, comprising 351,519 movements and 48 million transported pigs. The static networks view did not capture time-respecting movement pathways. For this reason, we propose a time-dependent network approach. A susceptible-infected model was used to spread an epidemic over the pig network globally through the temporal between-farm networks, and locally by a stochastic model to account for within-farm dynamics. We propagated disease to calculate the cumulative contacts as a proxy of epidemic sizes and evaluate the impact of network-based disease control strategies in the absence of other intervention alternatives. The results show that targeting 1,000 farms ranked by degree would be sufficient and feasible to diminish disease spread considerably. Our modelling results indicated that independently from where initial infections were seeded (i.e. independent, commercial farms), the epidemic sizes and the number of farms needed to be targeted to effectively control disease spread were quite similar; indeed, this finding can be explained by the presence of contact among all pig operation types The proposed strategy limited the transmission the total number of secondarily infected farms to 29, over two simulated years. The identified 1,000 farms would benefit from enhanced biosecurity plans and improved targeted surveillance. Overall, the modelling framework provides a parsimonious solution for targeted disease surveillance when temporal movement data are available.

Multifaceted Immune Responses to African Swine Fever Virus: Implications for Vaccine Development

African swine fever (ASF) is a highly contagious, often fatal viral disease caused by African swine fever virus (ASFV), leading to high fever, severe hemorrhages with high lethality in domestic pigs and wild boar. In 2007, ASF was reintroduced into Europe. Since then, ASF has spread to many European and Asian countries and now becomes a major concern to the swine industry worldwide. There have been various vaccine attempts, but no commercial ASF vaccines are available so far. A key hurdle in developing a safe and efficacious ASF vaccine is the limited understanding of innate and adaptive immune responses elicited by ASFV infection. Though several promising vaccine candidates have been described, more key scientific challenges remain unsolved. Here, we provide an overview of the current knowledge in innate and adaptive immune responses elicited by ASFV infection and different kinds of vaccine candidates. Additionally, the applications and prospects of vaccine candidates are discussed. Finally, we highlight the implications of these mechanisms for rational design of ASF vaccines.

Mathematical Approach to Estimating the Main Epidemiological Parameters of African Swine Fever in Wild Boar

African swine fever (ASF) severely threatens the swine industry worldwide, given its spread and the absence of an available licensed vaccine, and has caused severe economic losses. Its persistence in wild boar (WB), longer than in domestic pig farms, and the knowledge gaps in ASF epidemiology hinder ASF virus (ASFV) eradication. Even in areas where disease is effectively controlled and ASFV is no longer detected, declaring eradication is difficult as seropositive WBs may still be detected. The aim of this work was to estimate the main ASF epidemiological parameters specific for the north of Sardinia, Italy. The estimated basic (R₀) and effective (R_e) reproduction numbers demonstrate that the ASF epidemic is declining and under control with an R₀ of 1.139 (95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.123-1.153) and R_e of 0.802 (95% CI = 0.612-0.992). In the last phases of an epidemic, these estimates are crucial tools for identifying the intensity of interventions required to definitively eradicate the disease. This approach is useful to understand if and when the detection of residual seropositive WB is no longer associated with any further ASFV circulation.