Cause-specific childhood mortality in Africa and Asia: evidence from INDEPTH health and demographic surveillance system sites

Vitamin D3 supplementation as an adjunct in the management of childhood infectious diarrhea: a systematic review

BACKGROUND

Some studies have reported the possible role of vitamin D₃ in ameliorating disease outcomes in childhood infectious diarrhea. However, findings about its effectiveness and the association of serum vitamin D levels with diarrhea risk appear inconsistent. We aimed to determine the efficacy of oral vitamin D₃ as an adjunct in managing childhood infectious diarrhea and the relationship between vitamin D status and the disease.

METHODS

We searched the PubMed and Google Scholar electronic databases for relevant articles without limiting their year of publication. We selected primary studies that met the review's inclusion criteria, screened their titles and abstracts, and removed duplicates. We extracted data items from selected studies using a structured data-extraction form. We conducted a quality assessment of randomized controlled trials (RCTs) and non-randomized studies with the Cochrane collaboration tool and the Newcastle Ottawa Scale, respectively. We assessed the strength of the relationship between serum vitamin D levels and diarrhea using the correlation model. We estimated the I² and tau² values to assess between-study heterogeneity.

RESULTS

Nine full-text articles were selected, consisting of one RCT, three cross-sectional studies, two cohort studies, two longitudinal/prospective studies, and one case-control study. A total of 5,545 participants were evaluated in the nine studies. Six non-randomized studies provided weak evidence of the relationship between vitamin D levels and diarrhea risk as there was no correlation between the two variables. The only RCT failed to demonstrate any beneficial role of vitamin D₃ in reducing the risk of recurrent diarrhea. The calculated I² and tau² values of 86.5% and 0.03, respectively suggested a high between-study heterogeneity which precluded a meta-analysis of study results.

CONCLUSION

Oral vitamin D₃ may not be an effective adjunct in managing childhood infectious diarrhea. Additionally, the relationship between vitamin D status and infectious diarrhea appears weak. We recommend more adequately-powered RCTs to determine the effectiveness of vitamin D₃ as an adjunct therapy in infectious diarrhea.

Trend analysis of mortality rates and causes of death in children under 5 years of age in Xuzhou, China from 2016 to 2020

Objectives

To analyze the trends in mortality and causes of death among children under 5 years of age in Xuzhou, China between 2016 and 2020, in order to protect children's health and provide a basis for formulating child survival, development, and protection strategies.

Methods

A population-based epidemiological study was conducted. Data were obtained from the Xuzhou Center for Disease Control Prevention. We input the data into the excel database and analyzed with SPSS20.0.

Results

There were 1,949 children under 5 years of age died in Xuzhou, The number of deaths from 2016 to 2020 were 573 (29.40%), 577 (29.60%), 371 (19.04%), 334 (17.14%), and 94 (4.82%) respectively, mortality in children showed a downward trend. The number of deaths was relatively high in January (195 cases, 10.01%), February (190 cases, 9.75%), and May (180 cases, 9.24%), while was relatively small in July (147 cases, 7.54%), August (139 cases, 7.13%), and September (118 cases, 6.05%). The leading causes of death (COD) in children under 5 years of age were neonatal suffocation and hypoxia (323 cases, 16.57%). Pizhou (528 cases, 27.09%) showed the highest number of deaths in children under 5 years of age in China, and the Kaifa (25 cases, 1.28%) zone showed the lowest death toll.

Conclusions

Our research suggested that the current strategies for reducing child mortality should prioritize the actions on neonatal deaths and conduct targeted interventions for the main cause.

Determinants of Modern Paediatric Healthcare Seeking in Rural Côte d’Ivoire

Objectives: To determine factors that influence healthcare seeking among children with fatal and non-fatal health problems.

Methods: Last disease episodes of surviving children and fatal outcomes of children under 5 years of age were investigated by means of an adapted social autopsy questionnaire administered to main caregivers. Descriptive analysis and logistic models were employed to identify key determinants of modern healthcare use.

Results: Overall, 736 non-fatal and 82 fatal cases were assessed. Modern healthcare was sought for 63.9% of non-fatal and 76.8% of fatal cases, respectively. In non-fatal cases, young age, caregiver being a parent, secondary or higher education, living <5 km from a health facility, and certain clinical signs (i.e., fever, severe vomiting, inability to drink, convulsion, and inability to play) were positively associated with modern healthcare seeking. In fatal cases, only signs of lower respiratory disease were positively associated with modern healthcare seeking. A lack of awareness regarding clinical danger signs was identified in both groups.

Conclusion: Interventions promoting prompt healthcare seeking and the recognition of danger signs may help improve treatment seeking in rural settings of Côte d’Ivoire and can potentially help further reduce under-five mortality.

Estimating Child Mortality at the Sub-national Level in Papua New Guinea: Evidence From the Integrated Health and Demographic Surveillance System

Background

Child mortality is an important indication of an effective public health system. Data sources available for the estimation of child mortality in Papua New Guinea (PNG) are limited.

Objective

The objective of this study was to provide child mortality estimates at the sub-national level in PNG using new data from the integrated Health and Demographic Surveillance System (iHDSS).

Method

Using direct estimation and indirect estimation methods, household vital statistics and maternal birth history data were analysed to estimate three key child health indicators: Under 5 Mortality Rate (U5MR), Infant Mortality Rate (IMR) and Neonatal Mortality Rate (NMR) for the period 2014–2017. Differentials of estimates were evaluated by comparing the mean relative differences between the two methods.

Results

The direct estimations showed U5MR of 93, IMR of 51 and NMR of 34 per 1000 live births for all the sites in the period 2014–2017. The indirect estimations reported an U5MR of 105 and IMR of 67 per 1000 live births for all the sites in 2014. The mean relative differences in U5MR and IMR estimates between the two methods were 3 and 24 percentage points, respectively. U5MR estimates varied across the surveillance sites, with the highest level observed in Hela Province (136), and followed by Eastern Highlands (122), Madang (105), and Central (42).

Discussion

The indirect estimations showed higher estimates for U5MR and IMR than the direct estimations. The differentials between IMR estimates were larger than between U5MR estimates, implying the U5MR estimates are more reliable than IMR estimates. The variations in child mortality estimates between provinces highlight the impact of contextual factors on child mortality. The high U5MR estimates were likely associated with inequality in socioeconomic development, limited access to healthcare services, and a result of the measles outbreaks that occurred in the highlands region from 2014-2017.

Conclusion

The iHDSS has provided reliable data for the direct and indirect estimations of child mortality at the sub-national level. This data source is complementary to the existing national data sources for monitoring and reporting child mortality in PNG.

Causes of death in HIV-infected and HIV-uninfected children aged under-five years in western Kenya

OBJECTIVES

Describe the causes of death among infants and children less than 5 years stratified by HIV status.

DESIGN

Cross-sectional analysis of causes of death ascertained through minimally invasive tissue sampling (MITS) in the Kenya Child Health and Mortality Prevention Surveillance site.

METHODS

We included decedents aged 28 days to less than 5 years, whose death was reported within 36 h, underwent MITS, and had HIV test results and causes of death determined. MITS specimens were tested using Taqman Array Cards, culture, cytology, histopathology and immunohistochemistry and HIV PCR. A panel evaluated epidemiologic, clinical, verbal autopsy and laboratory data to assign causes of death using ICD-10 guidelines. Causes of death and etiological agents were stratified by HIV status.

RESULTS

Of 176 included decedents, 14% (n = 25) were HIV-infected, median viral load was 112 205 copies/ml [interquartile range (IQR) = 9349-2 670 143). HIV-disease (96%; n = 24) and malnutrition (23%; n = 34) were the leading underlying causes of death in HIV-infected and HIV-uninfected decedents, respectively. Malnutrition was more frequent in the causal chain of HIV-infected (56%; n = 14) than HIV-uninfected decedents (31%; n = 49) (P value = 0.03). Viral pneumonia was twice as common in HIV-infected (50%; n = 9) than HIV-uninfected decedents (22%; n = 7) (P value = 0.04).

CONCLUSION

Nearly all HIV-infected decedents' underlying cause of death was HIV disease, which was associated with malnutrition. Our findings underscore the need for strengthening early identification and management of HIV-infected children. Prevention, early diagnosis and treatment of malnutrition could be instrumental in improving the survival of HIV-infected and HIV-uninfected children.

Healthcare Providers and Caregivers' Perspectives on the Quality of Child Health Services in Urban Indonesia: A Mixed-Methods Study

Although Indonesia’s child mortality rate has decreased in tandem with the global trend, healthcare services can be further improved for children. This study aims to explore the perceptions of healthcare providers and caregivers of children aged below five years to improve child health in urban Indonesia. A mixed-methods study design was adopted. Quantitative data were collected via questionnaires from the caregivers. Qualitative data were collected via semi-structured interviews from the healthcare providers. Analysis of 540 caregiver questionnaires regarding the care provided to their child revealed that the majority of them were very satisfied (46.1%) and satisfied (52.2%) with the care received. Analysis of 12 interviews with healthcare providers derived three major themes: (1) importance of one’s role as a healthcare provider; (2) factors affecting the delivery of healthcare; and (3) the way forward in caring for young children. Although caregivers were very satisfied with the care received for their children, the perception of healthcare providers regarding their responsibility in delivering care to children under five years old provides insights into improving the quality of services for children in Indonesia. Our findings suggest that mortality and morbidity of children aged below five years can be best reduced by optimizing primary and secondary preventive measures.

Baseline incidence of meningitis, malaria, mortality and other health outcomes in infants and young sub-Saharan African children prior to the introduction of the RTS,S/AS01E malaria vaccine

Background

The lack of background disease incidence rates in sub-Saharan countries where the RTS,S/AS01_E malaria vaccine is being implemented may hamper the assessment of vaccine safety and effectiveness. This study aimed to document baseline incidence rates of meningitis, malaria, mortality, and other health outcomes prior to vaccine introduction through the Malaria Vaccine Implementation Programme.

Methods

An ongoing disease surveillance study is combining prospective cohort event monitoring and hospital-based disease surveillance in three study sites in Ghana and Kenya. An interim analysis was performed on the prospective cohort in which children were enrolled in two age-groups (the 5 to 17 months or 6 to 12 weeks age-group), capturing data in the framework of routine medical practice before the introduction of the malaria vaccine. Incidence and mortality rates were computed with 95% confidential intervals (CI) using an exact method for a Poisson variable.

Results

This analysis includes 14,329 children; 7248 (50.6%) in the 6 to 12 weeks age-group and 7081 (49.4%) in the 5 to 17 months age-group. In the 5 to 17 months age-group (where the malaria vaccine was planned to be subsequently rolled out) the meningitis, malaria, severe malaria and cerebral malaria incidences were 92 (95% CI 25–236), 47,824 (95% CI 45,411–50,333), 1919 (95% CI 1461–2476) and 33 (95% CI 1–181) per 100,000 person-years, respectively. The all-cause mortality was 969 (95% CI 699–1310) per 100,000 person-years.

Conclusion

Incidence estimates of multiple health outcomes are being generated to allow before-after vaccine introduction comparisons that will further characterize the benefit-risk profile of the RTS,S/AS01_E vaccine.

Trial registration: clinicaltrials.gov NCT02374450.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12936-021-03670-w.

Maternal and neonatal data collection systems in low- and middle-income countries for maternal vaccines active safety surveillance systems: A scoping review

BACKGROUND

Most post-licensure vaccine pharmacovigilance in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) are passive reporting systems. These have limited utility for maternal immunization pharmacovigilance in LMIC settings and need to be supplemented with active surveillance. Our study's main objective was to identify existing perinatal data collection systems in LMICs that collect individual information on maternal and neonatal health outcomes and could be developed to inform active safety surveillance of novel vaccines for use during pregnancy.

METHODS

A scoping review was performed following the Arksey and O'Malley six-stage approach. We included studies describing electronic or mixed paper-electronic data collection systems in LMICs, including research networks, electronic medical records, and custom software platforms for health information systems. Medline PubMed, EMBASE, Global Health, Cochrane Library, LILACS, Bibliography of Asian Studies (BAS), and CINAHL were searched through August 2019. We also searched grey literature including through Google and websites of existing relevant perinatal data collection systems, as well as contacted authors of key studies and experts in the field to validate the information and identify additional sources of relevant unpublished information.

RESULTS

A total of 11,817 records were identified. The full texts of 264 records describing 96 data collection systems were assessed for eligibility. Eight perinatal data collection systems met our inclusion criteria: Global Network's Maternal Newborn Health Registry, International Network for the Demographic Evaluation of Populations and their Health; Perinatal Informatic System; Pregnancy Exposure Registry & Birth Defects Surveillance; SmartCare; Open Medical Record System; Open Smart Register Platform and District Health Information Software 2. These selected systems were qualitatively characterized according to seven different domains: governance; system design; system management; data management; data sources, outcomes and data quality.

CONCLUSION

This review provides a list of active maternal and neonatal data collection systems in LMICs and their characteristics as well as their outreach, strengths, and limitations. Findings could potentially help further understand where to obtain population-based high-quality information on outcomes to inform the conduct of maternal immunization active vaccine safety surveillance activities and research in LMICs.

When Do Newborns Die? Timing and Cause-Specific Neonatal Death in Neonatal Intensive Care Unit at Referral Hospital in Gedeo Zone: A Prospective Cohort Study

Background

Maternal, newborn, and child health have a high stake in the global health agenda, however, neonates' risk of dying is unacceptable in the world. Ethiopia is one of the countries with high burden of neonatal morbidity and mortality. Yet, timing and cause-specific neonatal death are under-investigated. The present study aimed to determine the timing and cause-specific neonatal death.

Methods

We conducted a prospective cohort study at Dilla University Referral Hospital Neonatal Care Unit from November 2016 to January 2018. All admitted neonates to the neonatal care unit were followed from cohort entry up to the occurrence of an event (death) or end of follow-up. We generated descriptive statistics to determine the timing of neonatal death and the cause of deaths.

Results

Overall, 11.6% of neonates died during the follow-up. We found that 34.0% and 64.3% of deaths occurred during the first and second weeks of neonatal life, respectively. Neonatal sepsis and low birth weight were the main causes of death and hospital admission. Jaundices and low birth weight were the most common causes of death during the early neonatal period, whereas birth asphyxia, low birth weight, and sepsis were during late neonatal life. However, for other causes of death, the slight difference was seen between the death patterns in early and late neonatal periods.

Conclusions

The timing and cause-specific neonatal deaths were varying among different time of the neonatal periods that needs to design context-based policy and interventions.

Status of birth and pregnancy outcome capture in Health Demographic Surveillance Sites in 13 countries

Objectives

We compared pregnancy identification methods and outcome capture across 31 Health Demographic Surveillance System (HDSS) sites in 14 countries in sub-Saharan Africa and Asia.

Methods

From 2009 to 2014, details on the sites and surveillance systems including frequency of update rounds, characteristics of enumerators and interviewers, acceptable respondents were collected and compared across sites.

Results

The 31 HDSS had a combined population of over 2,905,602 with 165,820 births for the period. Stillbirth rate ranged from 1.9 to 42.6 deaths per 1000 total births and the neonatal mortality rate from 2.6 to 41.6 per 1000 live births. Three quarters (75.3%) of recorded neonatal deaths occurred in the first week of life. The proportion of infant deaths that occurred in the neonatal period ranged from 8 to 83%, with a median of 53%. Sites that registered pregnancies upon locating a live baby in the routine household surveillance round had lower recorded mortality rates.

Conclusions

Increased attention and standardization of pregnancy surveillance and the time of birth will improve data collection and provide platforms for evaluations and availability of data for decision-making with implications for national planning.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1007/s00038-019-01241-0) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Home deaths of children under 5 years in rural South Africa: a population-based longitudinal study

OBJECTIVES

To determine the proportion of under-5 deaths that occurred at home in rural South Africa, whether care was sought prior to death, and determinants of home deaths amongst those who sought care.

METHODS

Verbal autopsy data were used for all under-5 deaths, 2000-2015, in two health and demographic surveillance system sites. Trends in place of death and care-seeking were assessed. Associations between sociodemographic factors and home death despite seeking care were assessed by multivariate logistic regressions.

RESULTS

There were 3760 under-5 deaths; 1954 (53%) at home and 1510 (41%) in health facilities. Eighty-four per cent of children who died at home accessed healthcare during their final illness. Amongst neonates for whom care was sought, those who were 8-27 days old were more likely to die at home than those who were 0-7 days old (OR = 5.56, 95%CI 2.69-11.55, P < 0.001). Factors associated with home death of infants and young children despite seeking care included low maternal education (OR = 1.71, 95%CI 1.31-2.24, P < 0.001), larger household size (OR = 1.56, 95%CI 1.17-2.06, P = 0.002), traditional medicine use (OR = 2.33, 95%CI 1.75-3.12, P < 0.001) and Mozambican descent (OR = 1.47, 95%CI 1.06-2.03, P = 0.020). The proportion of HIV-related deaths that occurred at home fell from 60% in 2008-2011 to 39% in 2012-2015 ( χ²  = 13.86, P < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

More than half of under-5 deaths in rural South Africa occurred at home although healthcare was sought for most children, highlighting that home deaths are not simply a function of poor care-seeking. Interventions should target high-risk sociodemographic groups.

Global, regional, and national mortality trends in older children and young adolescents (5-14 years) from 1990 to 2016: an analysis of empirical data

Background

From 1990 to 2016, the mortality of children younger than 5 years decreased by more than half, and there are plentiful data regarding mortality in this age group through which we can track global progress in reducing the under-5 mortality rate. By contrast, little is known on how the mortality risk among older children (5–9 years) and young adolescents (10–14 years) has changed in this time. We aimed to estimate levels and trends in mortality of children aged 5–14 years in 195 countries from 1990 to 2016.

Methods

In this analysis of empirical data, we expanded the United Nations Inter-agency Group for Child Mortality Estimation database containing data on children younger than 5 years with 5530 data points regarding children aged 5–14 years. Mortality rates from 1990 to 2016 were obtained from nationally representative birth histories, data on household deaths reported in population censuses, and nationwide systems of civil registration and vital statistics. These data were used in a Bayesian B-spline bias-reduction model to generate smoothed trends with 90% uncertainty intervals, to determine the probability of a child aged 5 years dying before reaching age 15 years.

Findings

Globally, the probability of a child dying between the ages 5 years and 15 years was 7·5 deaths (90% uncertainty interval 7·2–8·3) per 1000 children in 2016, which was less than a fifth of the risk of dying between birth and age 5 years, which was 41 deaths (39–44) per 1000 children. The mortality risk in children aged 5–14 years decreased by 51% (46–54) between 1990 and 2016, despite not being specifically targeted by health interventions. The annual number of deaths in this age group decreased from 1·7 million (1·7 million–1·8 million) to 1 million (0·9 million–1·1 million) in 1990–2016. In 1990–2000, mortality rates in children aged 5–14 years decreased faster than among children aged 0–4 years. However, since 2000, mortality rates in children younger than 5 years have decreased faster than mortality rates in children aged 5–14 years. The annual rate of reduction in mortality among children younger than 5 years has been 4·0% (3·6–4·3) since 2000, versus 2·7% (2·3–3·0) in children aged 5–14 years. Older children and young adolescents in sub-Saharan Africa are disproportionately more likely to die than those in other regions; 55% (51–58) of deaths of children of this age occur in sub-Saharan Africa, despite having only 21% of the global population of children aged 5–14 years. In 2016, 98% (98–99) of all deaths of children aged 5–14 years occurred in low-income and middle-income countries, and seven countries alone accounted for more than half of the total number of deaths of these children.

Interpretation

Increased efforts are required to accelerate reductions in mortality among older children and to ensure that they benefit from health policies and interventions as much as younger children.

Funding

UN Children's Fund, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, United States Agency for International Development.

Does the provision of community health services offset the effects of poverty and low maternal educational attainment on childhood mortality? An analysis of the equity effect of the Navrongo experiment in Northern Ghana

The Government of Ghana has instituted a National Poverty Reduction Program with an initiative known as the Community-based Health Planning and Services (CHPS) as its core health development strategy. CHPS was derived from a plausibility trial of the Navrongo Health Research Centre testing four contrasting primary health care strategies: i) Training unpaid volunteers to promote health in communities, ii) placing nurses in communities with training and supplies for treating childhood illnesses, iii) combining the nurse and volunteer approaches, and iv) sustaining a comparison condition whereby clinic services were provided without community resident workers. This paper presents an age-conditional proportional hazard analysis of the long term impact of community health worker exposure among 94,599 children who were ever under age five over the January 1, 1995 to December 2010 period, adjusting for age conditional effects of shifts in exposure type as CHPS was scaled up in Navrongo project area over the 1995-2000 period. Results show that children whose parents are uneducated and relatively poor experience significantly higher mortality risks than children of the educated and less poor. Conditional hazard regression models assess the impact of CHPS on health equity by estimating the interaction of equity indicators with household exposure to CHPS service operations, adjusting for age conditional exposure to original Community Health and Family Planning Project (CHFP) service strategies as scale-up progressed. The association of mortality risk among children with uneducated and relatively impoverished mothers is offset by exposure to community health nursing services. If exposure is limited to volunteer-provided services alone, survival benefits arise only among children of relatively advantaged households. Findings lend support to policies that promote the CHPS nurse approach to community-based services as a core health component of poverty reduction programs.

Predictors of post neonatal mortality in Western Kenya: a cohort study

Introduction

to determine the predictors of mortality in infants in Siaya, western Kenya, ahead of novel tuberculosis (TB) vaccine trials in the same population.

Methods

in a study to determine tuberculosis incidence, 2900 infants aged 0-45 days, weighing ≥ 1700g were enrolled. Four monthly follow up visits were conducted for at least 12 months. HIV testing was done at six weeks of age. Free ancillary care was provided. Deaths were reported by parents, study staff and community workers. Cox proportional Hazard analysis was used to identify risk factors. The period of analysis commenced at six weeks old and was censored at 12 months of age.

Results

included in the analysis were 2528 infants with 2020 person years of follow up (pyo). There were 117 deaths (4.6 %). The post-neonatal mortality rate was 58 (95% CI: 48, 69) per 1000 pyo. In multivariate analysis, health facility births were protective against mortality (Hazard Ratio (HR) 0.54; 95% CI: 0.34, 0.84) and infant HIV infection at baseline was associated with increased mortality (HR 10.3; 95% CI: 6.40, 16.7). HIV uninfected infants born to HIV infected mothers had increased hazards of mortality (HR 1.73; 95% CI: 1.03, 2.90). Gender, weight at six weeks, maternal education and occupation were not significant predictors of mortality.

Conclusion

infant mortality was high and was associated with being born outside a health facility, maternal HIV infection and HIV infection of the infant. Measures to decrease mother to child transmission and other HIV control measures need to be strengthened further to see incremental reductions in infant mortality.

Incidence of Acute Diarrhea-Associated Death among Children < 5 Years of Age in Bangladesh, 2010-12

Although acute diarrheal deaths have declined globally among children < 5 years, it may still contribute to childhood mortality as an underlying or contributing cause. The aim of this project was to estimate the incidence of acute diarrhea-associated deaths, regardless of primary cause, among children < 5 years in Bangladesh during 2010-12. We conducted a survey in 20 unions (administrative units) within the catchment areas of 10 tertiary hospitals in Bangladesh. Through social networks, our field team identified households where children < 5 years were reported to have died during 2010-12. Trained data collectors interviewed caregivers of the deceased children and recorded illness symptoms, health care seeking, and other information using an abbreviated international verbal autopsy questionnaire. We classified the deceased based upon the presence of diarrhea before death. We identified 880 deaths, of which 36 (4%) died after the development of acute diarrhea, 17 (2%) had diarrhea-only in the illness preceding death, and 19 (53%) had cough or difficulty breathing in addition to diarrhea. The estimated annual incidence of all-cause mortality in the unions < 13.6 km of the tertiary hospitals was 26 (95% confidence interval [CI] 16-37) per 1,000 live births compared with the mortality rate of 37 (95% CI 26-49) per 1,000 live births in the unions located ≥ 13.6 km. Diarrhea contributes to childhood death at a higher proportion than when considering it only as the sole underlying cause of death. These data support the use of interventions aimed at preventing acute diarrhea, especially available vaccinations for common etiologies, such as rotavirus.

Seasonal variation in child mortality in rural Guinea-Bissau

Objectives

In many African countries, child mortality is higher in the rainy season than in the dry season. We investigated the effect of season on child mortality by time periods, sex and age in rural Guinea‐Bissau.

Methods

Bandim health project follows children under‐five in a health and demographic surveillance system in rural Guinea‐Bissau. We compared the mortality in the rainy season (June to November) between 1990 and 2013 with the mortality in the dry season (December to May) in Cox proportional hazards models providing rainy vs. dry season mortality rate ratios (r/d‐mrr). Seasonal effects were estimated in strata defined by time periods with different frequency of vaccination campaigns, sex and age (<1 month, 1–11 months, 12–59 months). Verbal autopsies were interpreted using InterVa‐4 software.

Results

From 1990 to 2013, overall mortality was declined by almost two‐thirds among 81 292 children (10 588 deaths). Mortality was 51% (95% ci: 45–58%) higher in the rainy season than in the dry season throughout the study period. The seasonal difference increased significantly with age, the r/d‐mrr being 0.94 (0.86–1.03) among neonates, 1.57 (1.46–1.69) in post‐neonatal infants and 1.83 (1.72–1.95) in under‐five children (P for same effect <0.001). According to the InterVa, malaria deaths were the main reason for the seasonal mortality difference, causing 50% of all deaths in the rainy season, but only if the InterVa included season of death, making the argument self‐confirmatory.

Conclusion

The mortality declined throughout the study, yet rainy season continued to be associated with 51% higher overall mortality.

Factors associated with infant mortality in Nepal: a comparative analysis of Nepal demographic and health surveys (NDHS) 2006 and 2011

Background

Infant mortality is one of the priority public health issues in developing countries like Nepal. The infant mortality rate (IMR) was 48 and 46 per 1000 live births for the year 2006 and 2011, respectively, a slight reduction during the 5 years’ period. A comprehensive analysis that has identified and compared key factors associated with infant mortality is limited in Nepal, and, therefore, this study aims to fill the gap.

Methods

Datasets from Nepal Demographic and Health Surveys (NDHS) 2006 and 2011 were used to identify and compare the major factors associated with infant mortality. Both surveys used multistage stratified cluster sampling techniques. A total of 8707 and 10,826 households were interviewed in 2006 and 2011, with more than 99% response rate in both studies. The survival information of singleton live-born infants born 5 years preceding the two surveys were extracted from the ‘childbirth’ dataset. Multiple logistic regression analysis using a hierarchical modelling approach with the backward elimination method was conducted. Complex Samples Analysis was used to adjust for unequal selection probability due to the multistage stratified cluster-sampling procedure used in both NDHS.

Results

Based on NDHS 2006, ecological region, succeeding birth interval, breastfeeding status and type of delivery assistance were found to be significant predictors of infant mortality. Infants born in hilly region (AOR = 0.43, p = 0.013) and with professional assistance (AOR = 0.27, p = 0.039) had a lower risk of mortality. On the other hand, infants with succeeding birth interval less than 24 months (AOR = 6.66, p = 0.001) and those who were never breastfed (AOR = 1.62, p = 0.044) had a higher risk of mortality.

Based on NDHS 2011, birth interval (preceding and succeeding) and baby’s size at birth were identified to be significantly associated with infant mortality. Infants born with preceding birth interval (AOR = 1.94, p = 0.022) or succeeding birth interval (AOR = 3.22, p = 0.002) shorter than 24 months had higher odds of mortality while those born with a very large or larger than average size had significantly lowered odds (AOR = 0.17, p = 0.008) of mortality.

Conclusion

IMR and associated risk factors differ between NDHS 2006 and 2011 except ‘succeeding birth interval’ which attained significant status in the both study periods. This study identified the ecological region, birth interval, delivery assistant type, baby’s birth size and breastfeeding status as significant predictors of infant mortality.

Causes of Death among Children Aged 5 to 14 Years Old from 2008 to 2013 in Kersa Health and Demographic Surveillance System (Kersa HDSS), Ethiopia

Background

The global burden of mortality among children is still very huge though its trend has started declining following the improvements in the living standard. It presents serious challenges to the well-being of children in many African countries. Today, Sub-Saharan Africa alone accounts for about 50% of global child mortality. The overall objective of this study was to determine the magnitude and distribution of causes of death among children aged 5 to 14 year olds in the population of Kersa HDSS using verbal autopsy method for the period 2008 to 2013.

Methods

Kersa Health and Demographic Surveillance System(Kersa HDSS) was established in September 2007. The center consists of 10 rural and 2 urban kebeles which were selected randomly from 38 kebeles in the district. Thus this study was conducted in Kersa HDSS and data was taken from Kersa HDSS database. The study population included all children aged 5 to 14 years registered during the period of 2008 to 2013 in Kersa HDSS using age specific VA questionnaires. Data were extracted from SPSS database and analyzed using STATA.

Results

A total of 229 deaths were recorded over the period of six years with a crude death rate of 219.6 per 100,000 population of this age group over the study period. This death rate was 217.5 and 221.5 per 100,000 populations for females and males, respectively. 75% of deaths took place at home. The study identified severe malnutrition(33.9%), intestinal infectious diseases(13.8%) and acute lower respiratory infections(9.2%) to be the three most leading causes of death. In broad causes of death classification, injuries have been found to be the second most cause of death next to communicable diseases(56.3%) attributing to 13.1% of the total deaths.

Conclusion and Recommendation

In specific causes of death classification severe malnutrition, intestinal infectious diseases and acute lower respiratory infections were the three leading causes of death where, in broad causes of death communicable diseases and injuries were among the leading causes of death. Hence, concerned bodies should take measures to avert the situation of mortality from these causes of death and further inferential analysis into the prevention and management of infectious diseases should also be taken.

Live neonates born to mothers with Ebola virus disease: a review of the literature

Ebola virus disease (EVD) is associated with a high mortality, especially among neonates. There is a paucity of literature on live neonates born to pregnant women with EVD, and therefore, our understanding of their clinical illness and outcomes is extremely limited. A literature search was conducted to identify descriptions of live neonates born to pregnant women with EVD. To date, five known reports have provided limited information about 15 live neonates born to pregnant women with EVD. All 15 neonates died, and of those with information, death was within 19 days of birth. Of the 12 neonates with information on signs and symptoms, 8 (67%) were reported to have fever; no other signs or symptoms were reported. There are no published data describing the clinical course or treatments provided for these neonates. Potential modes of Ebola virus transmission from mother to neonate are through in utero transmission, during delivery, direct contact or through breast milk. There is an urgent need for more information about neonates with EVD, including clinical course (for example, onset and presentation of illness, symptomatology and course of illness) and treatments provided as well as information on Ebola viral load in breast milk from Ebola-positive and convalescing mothers.

Early days of life are crucial for child survival in Gamo Gofa Zone, Southern Ethiopia: A community based study

Background

Though, Ethiopia has shown progress in the reduction of under-five mortality in the last few years, the problem of neonatal and under-five mortality are still among the highest in the world and that warrants continuous investigation of the situation for sustained interventions to maintain the reduction beyond the millennium development goals. Therefore, this study was conducted with the objective of determining the magnitude of childhood mortalities in the designated community.

Method

A census of 11 kebeles (lowest administrative units in Ethiopia) of Arba Minch Town and 11 kebeles of Arba Minch Zuria District, which were not part of Arba Minch Demographic Surveillance System (DSS), had been done in order to identify all children (alive and dead) born between September 01, 2007 and September 30, 2014. Besides, all children born after July 01, 2009 were tracked from the data base of the Arba Minch DSS. Descriptive analyses with frequency and cross tabulation with the corresponding confidence interval and p-value were made using SPSS 16 and STATA 11. Extended Mantel-Haenszel chi-square for linear trend was also performed to assess presence of linear trend through the study period using open-Epi version 2.3.

Result

A total of 20,161 children were included for this analysis. The overall weighted under five, infant and neonatal mortalities with their corresponding 95 % confidence intervals were: 42.76 (39.56-45.97), 33.89 (31.03-36.76) and 18.68 (16.53-20.83) per 1000 live births, respectively. Majority of neonatal deaths occurred within the first 7 days of life. Under-five mortality was found to be significantly higher among non-DSS rural kebeles, overall rural kebeles and females.

Conclusion

Significant number of children died during their early days of life. Strengthening of maternal and child health interventions during pregnancy, during and immediately after birth are recommended in order to avert majorities of neonatal deaths.

Global, regional, and national levels and trends in maternal mortality between 1990 and 2015, with scenario-based projections to 2030: a systematic analysis by the UN Maternal Mortality Estimation Inter-Agency Group

BACKGROUND

Millennium Development Goal 5 calls for a 75% reduction in the maternal mortality ratio (MMR) between 1990 and 2015. We estimated levels and trends in maternal mortality for 183 countries to assess progress made. Based on MMR estimates for 2015, we constructed projections to show the requirements for the Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) of less than 70 maternal deaths per 100,000 livebirths globally by 2030.

METHODS

We updated the UN Maternal Mortality Estimation Inter-Agency Group (MMEIG) database with more than 200 additional records (vital statistics from civil registration systems, surveys, studies, or reports). We generated estimates of maternal mortality and related indicators with 80% uncertainty intervals (UIs) using a Bayesian model. The model combines the rate of change implied by a multilevel regression model with a time-series model to capture data-driven changes in country-specific MMRs, and includes a data model to adjust for systematic and random errors associated with different data sources.

RESULTS

We had data for 171 of 183 countries. The global MMR fell from 385 deaths per 100,000 livebirths (80% UI 359-427) in 1990, to 216 (207-249) in 2015, corresponding to a relative decline of 43·9% (34·0-48·7), with 303,000 (291,000-349,000) maternal deaths worldwide in 2015. Regional progress in reducing the MMR since 1990 ranged from an annual rate of reduction of 1·8% (0·0-3·1) in the Caribbean to 5·0% (4·0-6·0) in eastern Asia. Regional MMRs for 2015 ranged from 12 deaths per 100,000 livebirths (11-14) for high-income regions to 546 (511-652) for sub-Saharan Africa. Accelerated progress will be needed to achieve the SDG goal; countries will need to reduce their MMRs at an annual rate of reduction of at least 7·5%.

INTERPRETATION

Despite global progress in reducing maternal mortality, immediate action is needed to meet the ambitious SDG 2030 target, and ultimately eliminate preventable maternal mortality. Although the rates of reduction that are needed to achieve country-specific SDG targets are ambitious for most high mortality countries, countries that made a concerted effort to reduce maternal mortality between 2000 and 2010 provide inspiration and guidance on how to accomplish the acceleration necessary to substantially reduce preventable maternal deaths.

FUNDING

National University of Singapore, National Institute of Child Health and Human Development, USAID, and the UNDP/UNFPA/UNICEF/WHO/World Bank Special Programme of Research, Development and Research Training in Human Reproduction.

Place of Residence Moderates the Risk of Infant Death in Kenya: Evidence from the Most Recent Census 2009

Background

Substantial progress has been made in reducing childhood mortality worldwide from 1990–2015 (Millennium Development Goal, target 4). Achieving target goals on this however remains a challenge in Sub-Saharan Africa. Kenya’s infant mortality rates are higher than the global average and are more pronounced in urban areas as compared to rural areas. Only limited knowledge exists about the differences in individual level risk factors for infant death among rural, non-slum urban, and slum areas in Kenya. Therefore, this paper aims at 1) assess individual and socio-ecological risk factors for infant death in Kenya, and at 2) identify whether living in rural, non-slum urban, or slum areas moderated individual or socio-ecological risk factors for infant death in Kenya.

Methodology

We used a cross-sectional study design based on the most recent Kenya Population and Housing Census of 2009 and extracted the records of all females who had their last child born in 12 months preceding the survey (N = 1,120,960). Multivariable regression analyses were used to identify risk factors that accounted for the risk of dying before the age of one at the individual level in Kenya. Place of residence (rural, non-slum urban, slum) was used as an interaction term to account for moderating effects in individual and socio-ecological risk factors.

Results

Individual characteristics of mothers and children (older age, less previously born children that died, better education, girl infants) and household contexts (better structural quality of housing, improved water and sanitation, married household head) were associated with lower risk for infant death in Kenya. Living in non-slum urban areas was associated with significantly lower infant death as compared to living in rural or slum areas, when all predictors were held at their reference levels. Moreover, place of residence was significantly moderating individual level predictors: As compared to rural areas, living in urban areas was a protective factor for mothers who had previous born children who died, and who were better educated. However, living in urban areas also reduced the health promoting effects of better structural quality of housing (i.e. poor or good versus non-durable). Furthermore, durable housing quality in urban areas turned out to be a risk factor for infant death as compared to rural areas. Living in slum areas was also a protective factor for mothers with previous child death, however it also reduced the promoting effects of older ages in mothers.

Conclusions

While urbanization and slum development continues in Kenya, public health interventions should invest in healthy environments that ideally would include improvements to access to safe water and sanitation, better structural quality of housing, and to access to education, health care, and family planning services, especially in urban slums and rural areas. In non-slum urban areas however, health education programs that target healthy diets and promote physical exercise may be an important adjunct to these structural interventions.

Cause-specific neonatal mortality: analysis of 3772 neonatal deaths in Nepal, Bangladesh, Malawi and India

OBJECTIVE

Understanding the causes of death is key to tackling the burden of three million annual neonatal deaths. Resource-poor settings lack effective vital registration systems for births, deaths and causes of death. We set out to describe cause-specific neonatal mortality in rural areas of Malawi, Bangladesh, Nepal and rural and urban India using verbal autopsy (VA) data.

DESIGN

We prospectively recorded births, neonatal deaths and stillbirths in seven population surveillance sites. VAs were carried out to ascertain cause of death. We applied descriptive epidemiological techniques and the InterVA method to characterise the burden, timing and causes of neonatal mortality at each site.

RESULTS

Analysis included 3772 neonatal deaths and 3256 stillbirths. Between 63% and 82% of neonatal deaths occurred in the first week of life, and males were more likely to die than females. Prematurity, birth asphyxia and infections accounted for most neonatal deaths, but important subnational and regional differences were observed. More than one-third of deaths in urban India were attributed to asphyxia, making it the leading cause of death in this setting.

CONCLUSIONS

Population-based VA methods can fill information gaps on the burden and causes of neonatal mortality in resource-poor and data-poor settings. Local data should be used to inform and monitor the implementation of interventions to improve newborn health. High rates of home births demand a particular focus on community interventions to improve hygienic delivery and essential newborn care.

Causes of death in the Taabo health and demographic surveillance system, Côte d'Ivoire, from 2009 to 2011

BACKGROUND

Current vital statistics from governmental institutions in Côte d'Ivoire are incomplete. This problem is particularly notable for remote rural areas that have limited access to the health system.

OBJECTIVE

To record all deaths from 2009 to 2011 and to identify the leading causes of death in the Taabo health and demographic surveillance system (HDSS) in south-central Côte d'Ivoire.

DESIGN

Deaths recorded in the first 3 years of operation of the Taabo HDSS were investigated by verbal autopsy (VA), using the InterVA-4 model. InterVA-4 is based on the World Health Organization 2012 VA tool in terms of input indicators and categories of causes of death.

RESULTS

Overall, 948 deaths were recorded, of which 236 (24.9%) had incomplete VA data. Among the 712 deaths analyzed, communicable diseases represented the leading causes (58.9%), with most deaths attributed to malaria (n=129), acute respiratory tract infections (n=110), HIV/AIDS (n=80), and pulmonary tuberculosis (n=46). Non-communicable diseases accounted for 18.9% of the deaths and included mainly acute abdomen (n=38), unspecified cardiac diseases (n=15), and digestive neoplasms (n=13). Maternal and neonatal conditions accounted for 8.3% of deaths, primarily pneumonia (n=19) and birth asphyxia (n=16) in newborns. Among the 3.8% of deaths linked to trauma and injury, the main causes were assault (n=6), accidental drowning (n=4), contact with venomous plants/animals (n=4), and traffic-related accidents (n=4). No clear causes were determined in 10.0% of the analyzed deaths.

CONCLUSIONS

Communicable diseases remain the predominant cause of death in rural Côte d'Ivoire. Based on these findings, measures are now being implemented in the Taabo HDSS. It will be interesting to monitor patterns of mortality and causes of death in the face of rapid demographic and epidemiological transitions in this part of West Africa.

Lectins with anti-HIV activity: a review

Lectins including flowering plant lectins, algal lectins, cyanobacterial lectins, actinomycete lectin, worm lectins, and the nonpeptidic lectin mimics pradimicins and benanomicins, exhibit anti-HIV activity. The anti-HIV plant lectins include Artocarpus heterophyllus (jacalin) lectin, concanavalin A, Galanthus nivalis (snowdrop) agglutinin-related lectins, Musa acuminata (banana) lectin, Myrianthus holstii lectin, Narcissus pseudonarcissus lectin, and Urtica diocia agglutinin. The anti-HIV algal lectins comprise Boodlea coacta lectin, Griffithsin, Oscillatoria agardhii agglutinin. The anti-HIV cyanobacterial lectins are cyanovirin-N, scytovirin, Microcystis viridis lectin, and microvirin. Actinohivin is an anti-HIV actinomycete lectin. The anti-HIV worm lectins include Chaetopterus variopedatus polychaete marine worm lectin, Serpula vermicularis sea worm lectin, and C-type lectin Mermaid from nematode (Laxus oneistus). The anti-HIV nonpeptidic lectin mimics comprise pradimicins and benanomicins. Their anti-HIV mechanisms are discussed.

Cause-specific mortality at INDEPTH Health and Demographic Surveillance System Sites in Africa and Asia: concluding synthesis

This synthesis brings together findings on cause-specific mortality documented by means of verbal autopsies applied to over 110,000 deaths across Africa and Asia, within INDEPTH Network sites.

Cause-specific mortality in Africa and Asia: evidence from INDEPTH health and demographic surveillance system sites

BACKGROUND

Because most deaths in Africa and Asia are not well documented, estimates of mortality are often made using scanty data. The INDEPTH Network works to alleviate this problem by collating detailed individual data from defined Health and Demographic Surveillance sites. By registering all deaths over time and carrying out verbal autopsies to determine cause of death across many such sites, using standardised methods, the Network seeks to generate population-based mortality statistics that are not otherwise available.

OBJECTIVE

To build a large standardised mortality database from African and Asian sites, detailing the relevant methods, and use it to describe cause-specific mortality patterns.

DESIGN

Individual demographic and verbal autopsy (VA) data from 22 INDEPTH sites were collated into a standardised database. The INDEPTH 2013 population was used for standardisation. The WHO 2012 VA standard and the InterVA-4 model were used for assigning cause of death.

RESULTS

A total of 111,910 deaths occurring over 12,204,043 person-years (accumulated between 1992 and 2012) were registered across the 22 sites, and for 98,429 of these deaths (88.0%) verbal autopsies were successfully completed. There was considerable variation in all-cause mortality between sites, with most of the differences being accounted for by variations in infectious causes as a proportion of all deaths.

CONCLUSIONS

This dataset documents individual deaths across Africa and Asia in a standardised way, and on an unprecedented scale. While INDEPTH sites are not constructed to constitute a representative sample, and VA may not be the ideal method of determining cause of death, nevertheless these findings represent detailed mortality patterns for parts of the world that are severely under-served in terms of measuring mortality. Further papers explore details of mortality patterns among children and specifically for NCDs, external causes, pregnancy-related mortality, malaria, and HIV/AIDS. Comparisons will also be made where possible with other findings on mortality in the same regions. Findings presented here and in accompanying papers support the need for continued work towards much wider implementation of universal civil registration of deaths by cause on a worldwide basis.