Equity of PrEP uptake by race, ethnicity, sex and region in the United States in the first decade of PrEP: a population-based analysis

Background

PrEP was approved for HIV prevention in the US in 2012; uptake has been slow. We describe relative equity with the PrEP Equity Ratio (PER), a ratio of PrEP-to-Need Ratios (PnRs).

Methods

We used commercial pharmacy data to enumerate PrEP users by race and ethnicity, sex, and US Census region from 2012 to 2021. We report annual race and ethnicity-, sex-, and region-specific rates of PrEP use and PnR, a metric of PrEP equity, to assess trends.

Findings

PrEP use increased for Black, Hispanic and White Americans from 2012 to 2021. By 2021, the rate of PrEP use per population was similar in Black and White populations but slightly lower among Hispanic populations. PnR increased from 2012 to 2021 for all races and ethnicities and regions; levels of PrEP use were inconsistent across regions and highly inequitable by race, ethnicity, and sex. In all regions, PnR was highest for White and lowest for Black people. Inequity in PrEP use by race and ethnicity, as measured by the PER, grew early after availability of PrEP and persisted at a level substantially below equitable PrEP use.

Interpretation

From 2012 to 2021, PrEP use increased among Americans, but PrEP equity for Black and Hispanic Americans decreased. The US South lagged all regions in equitable PrEP use. Improved equity in PrEP use will be not only just, but also impactful on the US HIV epidemic; persons most at-risk of acquiring HIV should have the highest levels of access to PrEP. Prevention programs should be guided by PrEP equity, not PrEP equality.

Funding

National Institutes of Health, Gilead Sciences.

A cross-sectional study

BACKGROUND

This study aimed to investigate the dietary habits, from early childhood to adolescence, among participants from all regions of the country and living areas (rural/urban) and to assess potential associations between dietary habits and obesity, in both sexes.

METHODS

Population data were derived from a cross-sectional, health survey on a representative sample of 177091 children aged 6 to 18 years. Dietary habits were considered via a self-completed questionnaire (KIDMED index). Trained investigators assessed anthropometric data.

RESULTS

KIDMED scores were 6.7±2.4 and 6.8±2.3 for boys and girls, respectively, while a percentage of almost 10% of the total study population had insufficient dietary habits. Dietary habits peaked around age 11 and then gradually worsened until the end of adolescence, among both sexes, with an annual trend equal to -0.28±0.02 (p<0.001), for boys and 0.31±0.03, (p<0.001), for girls. Overweight/obese schoolchildren presented higher percentages in all unhealthy dietary habits (e.g. skipping breakfast, going often to a fast-food restaurant, and consuming a lot of sweets) than normal-weight ones (all p-values<0.001). Dietary habits did not noteworthy differ by area of living, i.e. urban versus rural, of participants, in both sexes. Also, no noticeable differences in the values of the KIDMED index were found among all regions of Greece, with the highest values in Attica and Crete, in both sexes.

CONCLUSIONS

As Greek schoolchildren do not fully adopt the traditional cardio-protective Mediterranean diet, it could be helpful to provide certain recommendations, especially for adolescents, to decrease the risk for future adverse health consequences.

Analyzing the correlation between quinolone-resistant Escherichia coli resistance rates and climate factors: A comprehensive analysis across 31 Chinese provinces

BACKGROUND

The increasing problem of bacterial resistance, particularly with quinolone-resistant Escherichia coli (QnR eco) poses a serious global health issue.

METHODS

We collected data on QnR eco resistance rates and detection frequencies from 2014 to 2021 via the China Antimicrobial Resistance Surveillance System, complemented by meteorological and socioeconomic data from the China Statistical Yearbook and the China Meteorological Data Service Centre (CMDC). Comprehensive nonparametric testing and multivariate regression models were used in the analysis.

RESULT

Our analysis revealed significant regional differences in QnR eco resistance and detection rates across China. Along the Hu Huanyong Line, resistance rates varied markedly: 49.35 in the northwest, 54.40 on the line, and 52.30 in the southeast (P = 0.001). Detection rates also showed significant geographical variation, with notable differences between regions (P < 0.001). Climate types influenced these rates, with significant variability observed across different climates (P < 0.001). Our predictive model for resistance rates, integrating climate and healthcare factors, explained 64.1% of the variance (adjusted R-squared = 0.641). For detection rates, the model accounted for 19.2% of the variance, highlighting the impact of environmental and healthcare influences.

CONCLUSION

The study found higher resistance rates in warmer, monsoon climates and areas with more public health facilities, but lower rates in cooler, mountainous, or continental climates with more rainfall. This highlights the strong impact of climate on antibiotic resistance. Meanwhile, the predictive model effectively forecasts these resistance rates using China's diverse climate data. This is crucial for public health strategies and helps policymakers and healthcare practitioners tailor their approaches to antibiotic resistance based on local environmental conditions. These insights emphasize the importance of considering regional climates in managing antibiotic resistance.

Trends in Healthy Life Expectancy (HALE) and Disparities by Income and Region in Korea (2008-2020): Analysis of a Nationwide Claims Database

BACKGROUND

Healthy life expectancy is a well-recognized indicator for establishing health policy goals used in Korea's Health Plan. This study aimed to explore Koreans' healthy life expectancy and its gender, income, and regional disparities from 2008 to 2020.

METHODS

This study was conducted on the entire population covered by health insurance and medical aid program in Korea. The incidence-based "years lived with disability" for 260 disease groups by gender, income level, and region was calculated employing the methodology developed in the Korean National Burden of Disease Study, and it was used as the number of healthy years lost to calculate health-adjusted life expectancy (HALE).

RESULTS

Koreans' HALE increased from 68.89 years in 2008 to 71.82 years in 2020. Although the gender disparity in HALE had been decreasing, it increased to 4.55 years in 2020. As of 2020, 5.90 years out of 8.67 years of the income disparity (Q5-Q1) in HALE were due to the disparity between Q1 and Q2, the low-income groups. Income and regional disparities in HALE exhibited an increasing trend, and these disparities were higher in men than in women.

CONCLUSION

A subgroup with a low health level was identified through the HALE results, and it was confirmed that improving the health level of this population can reduce health inequalities and improve health at the national level. Further exploration of the HALE calculation methodology may help in the development of effective policies such as prioritizing interventions for health risk factors.

Epidemiology of gonorrhoea: systematic review, meta-analyses, and meta-regressions, World Health Organization European Region, 1949 to 2021

BackgroundEpidemiology of Neisseria gonorrhoeae (NG) infection remains inadequately understood.AimWe aimed to characterise NG epidemiology in Europe.MethodsWe used Cochrane and PRISMA guidelines to systematically review, report, synthesise and analyse NG prevalence data from 1949 to 30 September 2021. Random-effects meta-analyses estimated pooled prevalence. Meta-regression analyses investigated associations and sources of heterogeneity.ResultsThe 844 included publications yielded 1,573 prevalence measures. Pooled prevalence of current urogenital infection was 1.0% (95% CI: 0.7-1.2%) among general populations, 3.2% (95% CI: 1.8-4.8%) among female sex workers, 4.9% (95% CI: 4.2-5.6%) among sexually transmitted infection clinic attendees and 12.1% (95% CI: 8.8-15.8%) among symptomatic men. Among men who have sex with men, pooled prevalence was 0.9% (95% CI: 0.5-1.4%), 5.6% (95% CI: 3.6-8.1%), and 3.8% (95% CI: 2.5-5.4%), respectively, for current urogenital, anorectal or oropharyngeal infection. Current urogenital, anorectal or oropharyngeal infection was 1.45-fold (95% CI: 1.19-1.77%), 2.75-fold (95% CI: 1.89-4.02%) and 2.64-fold (95% CI: 1.77-3.93%) higher among men than women. Current urogenital infection declined 0.97-fold (95% CI: 0.96-0.98%) yearly, but anorectal and oropharyngeal infection increased (1.02-fold; 95% CI: 1.01-1.04% and 1.02-fold; 95% CI: 1.00-1.04%), respectively.ConclusionsNeisseria gonorrhoeae epidemiology in Europe has distinct and contrasting epidemiologies for vaginal sex transmission in heterosexual sex networks vs anal and oral sex transmission in MSM sexual networks. Increased transmission may facilitate drug-resistant strain emergence. Europe is far from achieving the World Health Organization target of 90% incidence reduction by 2030.

Evolution of smoking prevalence in Spain and its 17 autonomous regions (1987-2020)

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

Continuous monitoring of smoking prevalence is essential to understand the evolution of the tobacco epidemic in a population. The objective of this study was to analyze the evolution of smoking prevalence in Spain and its 17 Autonomous Regions (ARs) in population ≥15 years during the period 1987-2020.

METHODS

Tobacco consumption data were derived from the National Health Survey of Spain and the European Health Survey in Spain. A smoker was defined as a person who smoked at the time of the survey. The trend in prevalences by sex in Spain and its ARs was analyzed by applying joinpoint models. Age-standardized prevalences were calculated for Spain by applying the direct method.

RESULTS

In Spain, the prevalence of consumption decreased 29 percentage points in men and 4.5 in women between 1987-2020. In men, the smoking prevalence decreased in all the ARs and the absolute change varied between -19.5% in the Balearic Islands and -33.9% in Andalusia. In women, the evolution of smoking prevalence differed between ARs. The absolute change varied between -15.4% in Basque Country and 0.5% in Andalusia.

CONCLUSIONS

The number of men and women smokers has decreased in Spain between 1987-2020. Different patterns of evolution of the prevalence of consumption are observed among the ARs, especially among women. This reinforces the need for policies adapted to more local contexts and that take into account the gender perspective.

Research Note Showing That the Rural Mortality Penalty Varies by Region, Race, and Ethnicity in the United States, 1999-2016

This research note presents a new perspective on the rural mortality penalty in the United States. While previous work has documented a growing rural mortality penalty, there has been a lack of attention to heterogeneity in trends at the intersection of region, race, and ethnicity. We use age-adjusted mortality rates from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention to examine the rural mortality penalty by region, race, and ethnicity for 1999-2016 (N = 44,792,050 deaths) and stratify by 2006 National Center for Health Statistics metropolitan-nonmetropolitan classifications. We find substantial variation at the intersection of region, race, and ethnicity, revealing heterogeneity in the rural penalty and-in some cases-a rural mortality advantage. For the Black/African American population, the rural mortality penalty is observed only in the South. On the other hand, for Hispanic/Latino populations, a small but persistent rural mortality penalty is present only in the South and the West. There is a rural mortality penalty in all regions for White and American Indian/Alaska Native populations. However, for the latter, there is substantial variation in the magnitude of the penalty by region of residence. This research documents heterogeneous patterns when the rural mortality penalty is analyzed by region, race, and ethnicity in the United States.

Regional investigation of UT-B urea transporters in the rat brain

Recent studies have reported increased levels of urea in the aging brain and various neurological disorders. Additionally, these diseased tissues also have increased expression of the UT-B transporter that regulates urea transport in the brain. However, little is known regarding the actual UT-B protein distribution across the brain in either normal or diseased states. This current study investigated UT-B protein abundance across three regions of the rat brain - anterior, posterior and cerebellum. Endpoint RT-PCR experiments showed that there were no regional differences in UT-B RNA expression (NS, N = 3, ANOVA), whilst Western blotting confirmed no difference in the abundance of a 35 kDa UT-B protein (NS, N = 3-4, ANOVA). In contrast, there was a significant variation in a non-UT-B 100 kDa protein (P < 0.001, N = 3-4, ANOVA), which was also detected by anti-UT-B antibodies. Using the C6 rat astrocyte cell line, Western blot analysis showed that 48-h incubation in either 5 mM or 10 mM significantly increased a 30-45 kDa UT-B protein signal (P < 0.05, N = 3, ANOVA). Furthermore, investigation of compartmentalized C6 protein samples showed the 30-45 kDa signal in the membrane fraction, whilst the 100 kDa non-UT-B signal was predominantly in the cytosolic fraction. Finally, immunolocalization studies gave surprisingly weak detection of rat UT-B, except for strong staining of red blood cells in the cerebellum. In conclusion, this study confirmed that RNA expression and protein abundance of UT-B were equal across all regions of the rat brain, suggesting that urea levels were also similar. However, it also highlighted some of the technical challenges of studying urea transporters at the protein level.

Regional differences and coronary microvascular dysfunction in heart failure with preserved ejection fraction

AIMS

In heart failure with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF), regional heterogeneity of clinical phenotypes is increasingly recognized, with coronary microvascular dysfunction (CMD) potentially being a common shared feature. We sought to determine the regional differences in clinical characteristics and prevalence of CMD in HFpEF.

METHODS AND RESULTS

We analysed clinical characteristics and CMD in 202 patients with stable HFpEF (left ventricular ejection fraction ≥40%) in Finland, Singapore, Sweden, and United States in the multicentre PROMIS-HFpEF study. Patients with unrevascularized macrovascular coronary artery disease were excluded. CMD was assessed using Doppler echocardiography and defined as coronary flow reserve (adenosine-induced vs. resting flow) < 2.5. Patients from Singapore had the lowest body mass index yet highest prevalence of hypertension, dyslipidaemia, and diabetes; patients from Finland and Sweden were oldest, with the most atrial fibrillation, chronic kidney disease, and high smoking rates; and those from United States were youngest and most obese. The prevalence of CMD was 88% in Finland, 80% in Singapore, 77% in Sweden, and 59% in the United States; however, non-significant after adjustment for age, sex, N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide, smoking, left atrial reservoir strain, and atrial fibrillation. Associations between CMD and clinical characteristics did not differ based on region (interaction analysis).

CONCLUSIONS

Despite regional differences in clinical characteristics, CMD was present in the majority of patients with HFpEF across different regions of the world with the lowest prevalence in the United States. This difference was explained by differences in patient characteristics. CMD could be a common therapeutic target across regions.

Prevalence and severity of dental caries in school children in Saudi Arabia: A nationwide cross-sectional study

Aim

This nationwide study assessed the prevalence and severity of dental caries in 6-, 12-, and 15-year-old school children across Saudi Arabia. This study examined differences between genders and among regions regarding the mean values of decayed, missing, and filled teeth (dmft/DMFT), the care index (CI), and the significant caries index (SiC index).

Materials and methods

Data from 19,870 participants, 10,435 males and 9435 females, were collected using stratified multistage cluster random sampling. The survey team divided Saudi Arabia into five regions (northern, eastern, western, southern, and middle). To represent each respective region, a large city, two random towns (peri-urban), and four random rural areas were selected for surveying. Lastly, the sampling technique was applied by choosing random schools and random classes within the selected schools. Dental caries were assessed using the dmft/DMFT score, CI, and the top 30% and 10% of the sample dmft/DMFT scores (SiC30 and SiC10, respectively).

Results

The overall prevalence of caries was 65.6%, with 72.1 occurring in primary teeth and 61.7% in permanent teeth. The percentages of individuals with missing teeth and filled teeth were 9.0% and 20.5%, respectively. The mean dmft was 3.93 ± 3.60, while the mean DMFT was 2.42 ± 2.52; most of the DMFT components were significantly higher in females than males, while the dmft components were higher in males. The northern region had the highest and worst DMFT/dmft ratios of the five regions. The mean SiC30 and SiC10 values were significantly higher than the overall average DMFT/dmft values (P < 0.001).

Conclusion

Dental caries remain a public health challenge among school children in Saudi Arabia. The SiC and CI analysis indicated that caries management had a high overall efficacy, but that certain groups of the population may need targeted management in the future.

Do age, gender, and region affect tibial slope? A multi-center study

INTRODUCTION

Tibial slope is a parameter that is important to recognize in knee kinematics and knee surgery. A very wide range of values governing posterior tibial slope exist in the literature. This study is based on the hypothesis that age, gender and region may have an effect on the tibial slope.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A total of 1800 lateral knee radiographies from five different countries [Turkey, Germany, Italy, Spain, and the United Kingdom (UK)] were utilized to measure the native posterior tibial slope. Participants were categorized in deciles with each decade of age after 40 years determined as a separate age group. Accordingly, four different age categories were formed in total, namely, the 40- to 49-, 50- to 59-, 60-69, and 70- to 79-year-old groups. Patients with severe knee osteoarthritis, those with a history of arthroscopic and open surgery around the knee, and those with severe morbid obesity and those outside the specified age group were excluded from the study. The angle between the line tangential to the medial tibial plateau and the proximal anatomical axis of the tibia was measured.

RESULTS

The tibial slope values of both males and females in the Turkish population were found to be higher than those in other populations. It was observed that tibial slope values increased with age in females in all populations, except for those in the Spanish and UK populations. In the male population, it was found that tibial slope values increased with age in all populations except in the Spanish population.

CONCLUSIONS

Region, age, and gender affect tibial slope in different populations in various ways. Our study shows that the region an individual lives in and living conditions affect the tibial slope.

End-of-life practices in 11 German intensive care units : Results from the ETHICUS-2 study

BACKGROUND

End-of-life care is common in German intensive care units (ICUs) but little is known about daily practice.

OBJECTIVES

To study the practice of end-of-life care.

METHODS

Prospectively planned, secondary analysis comprising the German subset of the worldwide Ethicus‑2 Study (2015-2016) including consecutive ICU patients with limitation of life-sustaining therapy or who died.

RESULTS

Among 1092 (13.7%) of 7966 patients from 11 multidisciplinary ICUs, 967 (88.6%) had treatment limitations, 92 (8.4%) died with failed CPR, and 33 (3%) with brain death. Among patients with treatment limitations, 22.3% (216/967) patients were discharged alive from the ICU. More patients had treatments withdrawn than withheld (556 [57.5%] vs. 411 [42.5%], p < 0.001). Patients with treatment limitations were older (median 73 years [interquartile range (IQR) 61-80] vs. 68 years [IQR 54-77]) and more had mental decision-making capacity (12.9 vs. 0.8%), advance directives (28.6 vs. 11.2%), and information about treatment wishes (82.7 vs 33.3%, all p < 0.001). Physicians reported discussing treatment limitations with patients with mental decision-making capacity and families (91.3 and 82.6%, respectively). Patient wishes were unknown in 41.3% of patients. The major reason for decision-making was unresponsiveness to maximal therapy (34.6%).

CONCLUSIONS

Treatment limitations are common, based on information about patients' wishes and discussion between stakeholders, patients and families. However, our findings suggest that treatment preferences of nearly half the patients remain unknown which affects guidance for treatment decisions.

regions with the highest suicide rates and examining differences in suicide methods among Asian American, Native Hawaiian, and Pacific Islander Veterans

The suicide rate among Asian American, Native Hawaiian, and Pacific Islander (AANHPI) Veterans increased from 2001 to 2020. Identifying regions where suicide rates are elevated and increasing among AANHPI Veterans would inform targeted prevention efforts for members of this cohort. We conducted a population-based retrospective cohort study of 377,833 AANHPI Veterans to examine suicide rates and methods (2005-2019) by United States (US) region and over time (2005-2009, 2010-2014, 2015-2019), using US Veteran Eligibility Trends and Statistics and Joint DoD/VA Mortality Data Repository data. AANHPI Veterans across most regions experienced increases in suicide rates from the earliest to latest period; however, patterns differed by region. Age-adjusted suicide rates increased across all three periods among those in the Northeast and West, but increased, then declined in the Midwest and South. In 2015-2019, the age-adjusted suicide rate among AANHPI Veterans was highest in the Northeast (42.0 per 100,000) and lowest in the West (27.5). However, the highest percentages of AANHPI Veteran suicide deaths in 2005-2019 occurred in the West (39.5%) and South (34.7%), with lower percentages in the Midwest (15.0%) and Northeast (10.8%). Across regions, those ages 18-34 had the highest suicide rates. Firearms were the most frequently used suicide method across regions (44.4%-60.2%), except the Northeast (35.2%), where suffocation was more common (38.3%). Results suggest particular needs for suicide prevention efforts among AANHPI Veterans in the Northeast and to ensure that lethal means safety initiatives for AANHPI Veterans encompass both firearms and suffocation, with some variations in emphasis across regions.

Use of any contraceptive method among women in rural communities in the eastern region of Ghana: a cross-sectional study

BACKGROUND

In Ghana, there is an increase in contraceptive use for traditional and modern methods in rural areas. This study seeks to examine the prevalence and determinants of current use of any contraceptive method among women of reproductive age in the rural Eastern Region of Ghana.

METHODS

A community-based cross-sectional study was conducted among women of reproductive age in the rural Eastern region of Ghana. A structured questionnaire was used to interview women in rural Lower Manya and Upper Manya Krobo districts of Eastern region who were selected using a simple random sampling technique. The data were analysed using Stata version 16. A Binary logistic regression was used to examine the determinants of current use of any contraceptive use (traditional and modern methods).

RESULTS

The prevalence of contraceptive use was 27.8%. In the adjusted analysis of binary logistic regression, contraceptive use was significantly lower (aOR = 0.24; 95%CI = 0.10-0.56; p = 0.001) among respondents aged 41-49 years compared to those aged 18-35 years. Contraceptive use was significantly lower among migrants (aOR:0.53; 95%CI:0.28-0.99; p = 0.048) compared with non-migrant.

CONCLUSION

The prevalence of any contraceptive use among rural women was low. Government and other stakeholders need to create awareness about contraception in the rural areas of Eastern region of Ghana and that would help increase contraceptive methods utilization. In addition, family planning programs should target migrants to design an intervention to increase contraceptive use in rural areas.

Regional differences in penile cancer patient characteristics and treatment rates across the United States

INTRODUCTION

We tested for regional-specific differences in patient, tumor and treatment characteristics as well as cancer-specific mortality (CSM) of squamous cell carcinoma of the penis (SCCP) patients, across the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) registries.

METHODS

The SEER database (2000-2018) was used to tabulate patient (age at diagnosis, race/ethnicity), tumor (stage, grade, N-stage) and treatment characteristics (proportions of primary tumor surgery, local lymph node surgery, systemic therapy), according to 12 SEER registries. Multinomial regression models, as well as multivariable Cox regression models tested for CSM differences, adjusting for patient, tumor and treatment characteristics.

RESULTS

In 5395 SCCP patients, registry-specific patient counts ranged from 2060 (38 %) to 64 (1 %). Differences across registries existed for race/ethnicity, stage, grade and N-stage. Additionally, in stage I-II SCCP patients, proportions of local tumor destruction (LTD) ranged from 19 % to 39 % and from 33 % to 61 % for partial penectomy. In stage III-IV SCCP patients, proportions of partial penectomy ranged from 40 % to 59 % and from 17 % to 50 % for radical penectomy. Local lymph node surgery ranged from 8 % to 24 % and proportions of systemic therapy ranged from 3 % to 14 %. Significant inter-registry differences remained, after adjustment for treatment proportions. Unadjusted five-year CSM ranged from 19 % to 32 %. In multivariable analyses, one registry exhibited significantly higher CSM (SEER registry 10, Hazard Ratio [HR] 1.48), relative to the largest reference registry (SEER registry 1, n = 2060).

CONCLUSION

Important regional differences including patient, tumor and treatment characteristics exist for SCCP patients across SEER registries. After multivariable adjustment, no differences in CSM were recorded, with the exception of one registry.

Green through finance: The impact of monetary policy uncertainty on inclusive green growth

For high-quality development, inclusive green growth (IGG) is a crucial strategic option. Given the deceleration in economic growth, monetary policy has several obligations, including stabilizing growth, changing structure, and mitigating risks. However, frequent revisions of monetary policy may diminish its regulatory efficacy due to resulting uncertainty. Accordingly, this study reveals the mechanism of the impact of monetary policy uncertainty (MPU) on IGG. Research suggests that MPU significantly inhibits IGG in the region, as demonstrated by robustness tests. Mechanism test reveal that MPU inhibits IGG by reducing green finance, ecological innovation, media attention, and employment levels. These four transmission mechanisms all show a masking effect. Additionally, further tests show that under different levels of green finance, ecological innovation, media attention, and employment, the impact of MPU on IGG is nonlinear. Heterogeneity analyses also indicate that the inhibition of MPU is weaker in cities with high scientific and technological progress and local fiscal expenditure. Finally, quantile regression demonstrates that the restraining effect of MPU diminishes before rising. This study contributes to the advancement of MPU research, provides a solid foundation for formulating, modifying, and executing monetary policy, and serves as a valuable resource for promoting IGG.

Catastrophic out-of-pocket payments for dental treatment: regional evidence from Spain

BACKGROUND

To estimate the incidence and concentration of catastrophic out-of-pocket payments for healthcare and dental treatment, by region in Spain (calculated as the proportion of households needing to exceed a given threshold of their income to make these payments) in 2008, 2011 and 2015.

METHODS

The data analysed were obtained from the Spanish Family Budget Survey reports for the years in question. The study method was that proposed by Wagstaff and van Doorslaer (2003), contrasting payments for dental treatment versus household income and considering thresholds of 10%, 20%, 30% and 40%, thus obtaining incidence rates. In addition, relevant sociodemographic variables were obtained for each household included in the study.

RESULTS

With some regional heterogeneity, on average 4.75% of Spanish households spend more than 10% of their income on dental treatment, and 1.23% spend more than 40%. Thus, 38.67% of catastrophic out-of-pocket payments for dental services in Spain corresponds to payments at the 10% threshold. This value rises to 55.98% for a threshold of 40%.

CONCLUSIONS

An important proportion of catastrophic out-of-pocket payments for health care in Spain corresponds to dental treatment, a service that has very limited availability under the Spanish NHS. This finding highlights the need to formulate policies aimed at enhancing dental cover, in order to reduce inequalities in health care and, consequently, enhance the population's quality of life and health status.

Predictors of Multiwave Opioid Use Among Older American Adults

Background and Objectives

Despite limited analgesic benefits, long-term opioid therapy (L-TOT) is common among older adults with chronic pain. Extended opioid use poses a threat to older adults as aging metabolisms retain opioids for longer, increasing the risk of injury, overdose, and other negative health outcomes. In contrast to predictors of general opioid use, predictors of L-TOT in older adults are not well documented. We aimed to identify such predictors using all available data on self-reported opioid use in the Health and Retirement Study.

Research Design and Methods

Using 5 waves of data, respondents (N = 10,713) aged 51 and older were identified as reporting no opioid use (n = 8,621), a single wave of use (n = 1,410), or multiple waves of use (n = 682). We conducted a multinomial logistic regression to predict both single- and multiwave opioid use relative to no use. Demographic, socioeconomic, geographic, health, and health care-related factors were included in our model.

Results

Multivariable findings show that, relative to nonusers, both single- and multiwave users were significantly more likely to be younger (relative risk ratio [RRR] = 1.33; RRR = 2.88); report lower household wealth (RRR = 1.47; RRR = 2.88); live in the U.S. Midwest (RRR = 1.29; RRR = 1.56), South (RRR = 1.34; RRR = 1.58), or West (RRR = 1.46; RRR = 2.34); experience interfering pain (RRR = 1.59; RRR = 3.39), back pain (RRR = 1.35; RRR = 1.53), or arthritic pain (RRR = 1.46; RRR = 2.32); and see the doctor frequently (RRR = 1.50; RRR = 2.02). Multiwave users were less likely to be Black (RRR = 0.69) or Hispanic (RRR = 0.45), and less likely to be never married (RRR = 0.52).

Discussion and Implications

We identified demographic, socioeconomic, geographic, and health care-related predictors of chronic multiyear opioid use. Our focus on individuals taking opioids for this extended duration is novel. Differences in opioid use by geographic region and frequency of doctor visits particularly warrant attention from policy-makers and researchers. We make additional recommendations based on a sensitivity analysis limited to 2016-2020 data.

Contraceptive care in the United States during the COVID-19 pandemic: a social media survey study of contraceptive access, telehealth use and telehealth quality

OBJECTIVES

To examine demographic, socioeconomic, and regional differences in contraceptive access, differences between telehealth and in-person contraception visits, and telehealth quality in the United States during the COVID-19 pandemic.

STUDY DESIGN

We surveyed reproductive-age women about contraception visits during the COVID-19 pandemic via social media in July 2020 and January 2021. We used multivariable regression to examine relationships between age, racial/ethnic identity, educational attainment, income, insurance type, region, and COVID-19 related hardship, and ability to obtain a contraceptive appointment, telehealth vs in-person visits, and telehealth quality scores.

RESULTS

Among 2,031 respondents who answered questions about contraception visits, 1,490 (73.4%) reported any visit, of which 530 (35.6%) were telehealth. In adjusted analyses, lower odds of any visit was associated with Hispanic/Latinx and Mixed race/Other identity (aOR 0.59 [0.37-0.94], aOR 0.36 [0.22-0.59], respectively), the South, Midwest, Northeast (aOR 0.63 [0.47-0.85], aOR 0.64 [0.46-0.90], aOR 0.52 [CI 0.36-0.75], respectively), no insurance (aOR 0.63 [0.43-0.91]), greater COVID-19 hardship (aOR 0.52 [0.31-0.87]), and earlier pandemic timing (January 2021 vs July 2020 aOR 2.14 [1.69-2.70]). Respondents from the Midwest and South had lower odds of telehealth vs in-person care (aOR 0.63 [0.44-0.88], aOR 0.54 [0.40-0.72], respectively). Hispanic/Latinx respondents and those in the Midwest had lower odds of high telehealth quality (aOR 0.37 [0.17-0.80], aOR 0.58 [0.35-0.95], respectively).

CONCLUSIONS

We found inequities in contraceptive care access, less telehealth use for contraception visits in the South and Midwest, and lower telehealth quality among Hispanic/Latinx people during the COVID-19 pandemic. Future research should focus on telehealth access, quality, and patients' preferences.

Impact of COVID-19 on Liver Transplant Activity in the USA: Variation by Etiology and Cirrhosis Complications

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

The COVID-19 pandemic has impacted the care of patients with liver disease. We examined impact of COVID-19 on liver transplant (LT) activity in the USA.

METHODS

LT listings in the United Network for Organ Sharing (UNOS) database (April 2018-May 2021) were analyzed to examine the impact of COVID-19 pandemic on the LT activity based on etiology: hepatitis C virus (HCV), alcohol-associated liver disease (ALD), alcoholic hepatitis (AH), and nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) complications: hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) grade 2 or 3) and Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score. Joinpoint regression models assessed time trend changes on a log scale.

RESULTS

Of 23,871 recipients (8,995 in the COVID era, April 2018-February 2020), mean age 52 years, 62% men, 61% Caucasian, 32% ALD, 15% HCC, 30% ACLF grades 2-3, and mean MELD score 20.5), monthly LT changes were a decrease of 3.4% for overall LTs and 22% for HCC after September 2020, and increase of 4.5% for ALD since 11/2020 and 17% since 03/2021 for ACLF grade 2-3. Monthly MELD scores increased by 0.7 and 0.36 after June 2020 for HCV and HCC respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

The COVID-19 pandemic has impacted LT activity, with a decrease of LTs especially for HCC, and an increase of LTs for ALD and severe ACLF. Strategies are needed to reorganize cirrhosis patients to overcome the aftereffects of COVID-19 pandemic.

The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on suicide rates in Hungary: an interrupted time-series analysis

BACKGROUND

From 2010 to 2019, suicide mortality fell steadily and substantially in Hungary: the declining trend remained stable, and the suicide rate decreased by more than one-third which was remarkable even from an international perspective. However, despite the declining trend, regional inequalities have always characterised the distribution of suicide mortality in Hungary. Following these favourable trends, COVID-19 appeared in Hungary on the 4^th of March 2020 which might lead to an increase in suicides. We aimed to investigate this hypothesis in Hungary by gender, age, educational attainment, and region, as well.

METHODS

To test whether the pandemic changed the declining trend of Hungarian suicide rates, the observed number of suicides during March-December 2020 (pre-vaccination period) was compared with the expected numbers (without the appearance of COVID-19). An interrupted time-series analysis was conducted by negative binomial regression using monthly data from January 2010 to February 2020 (pre-pandemic period).

RESULTS

Suicide mortality increased significantly compared to the trend during the pre-pandemic period: overall (by 16.7%), among males (18.5%), in the age group 35-49 years (32.8%), and among vocational school graduates (26.1%). Additionally, significant growths in suicide rates were detected in the two regions (Central Hungary and Central Transdanubia) with the lowest COVID mortality rates (by 27.3% and 22.2%, respectively).

CONCLUSIONS

Our study revealed reversed trend in suicide mortality during the pre-vaccination period compared to the pre-pandemic period in Hungary. There were significant differences in the pattern of suicide rates by gender, age group, educational attainment, and region during the pre-vaccination period in Hungary, which might be attributed to the socio-economic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. These findings could prove useful in preventive strategies as the identification of groups at higher risk may be important for suicide prevention; however, further investigations are needed to explore the reasons.

[Counter-Experts: Environment, Activism and the Regional Epistemologies of Social Movements]

With the demand for "counter-knowledge" in the social movements of the 1970s and 1980s, "counter-experts" became an integral part of politics. In the field of environmental activism, counter-experts were particularly well represented in regions and agglomerations with high levels of industrial pollution. This essay argues that awareness correlated with a mode of knowledge production that was typical for the environmental sciences in the twentieth century. The history of the environmental sciences throughout that period was shaped by regional epistemologies, often emerging in the context of large-scale infrastructural projects. Many counter-experts therefore had strong ties with the field of the environmental sciences. The article traces three influential counter-experts in the Frankfurt Main region by 1980: the pastor Kurt Oeser; scientific green activist Jutta Ditfurth; and the project of a "social natural science" related to the Darmstadt philosopher Gernot Böhme.

Barriers Encountered Toward Pursuing a Neurosurgical Career: A Cross-Sectional Study Among Medical Students, Interns, and Junior Doctors in Africa

BACKGROUND

Africa has an increased burden of neurosurgical diseases with an estimate of 1,986,392 neurosurgical cases, 108,824 neurosurgical case capacity, and 1,877,568 case deficits yearly. Literature suggests that about 8420 neurosurgeons are needed to fill this vast gap. The main objective of this study is to elucidate barriers encountered in pursuing neurosurgery training in the African context.

METHODS

A cross-sectional electronic survey, developed in English and subsequently translated into French, was utilized. This was disseminated among medical students, medical interns, and junior doctors in all 5 African regions.

RESULTS

A total of 491 responses were received from the following 5 African regions: West Africa (30.5%), East Africa (30.3%), Central Africa (18.1%), North Africa (11.8%), and Southern Africa (9.2%). Of the participants, 55.2% were men and 44.8% were women. Seventy-six percent of respondents were aware of the neurosurgery deficit in Africa. Barriers to pursuing neurosurgery included discouragement from others over lack of an "ideal personality" trait, culture/cultural beliefs as related to gender roles, lack of mentorship, inadequate neurosurgical training opportunities, poor health infrastructure for neurosurgical practice in Africa, poor patient outcomes, and challenges with work/life balance were some of the barriers highlighted to pursuing neurosurgical career on the continent.

CONCLUSION

Even with its robust population growth, Africa is not producing enough neurosurgeons to meet the demands of the population due to several barriers. Delineating these challenges and barriers represents an important step in developing sustainable mechanisms for recruitment, training, mentorship, and support of burgeoning African neurosurgeons.

Hydrochemical characterization of groundwater quality using chemometric analysis and water quality indices in the foothills of Himalayas

Groundwater pollution of the watershed is mainly influenced by the multifaceted interactions of natural and anthropogenic process. To analyse the spatial-temporal variation and pollution source identification and apportionment, the dataset was subjected to a globally acknowledged coherent technique using water quality indices and chemometric techniques (principal component analysis (PCA) and cluster analysis. The bulk of the samples tested were below the BIS's permissible levels. Groundwater samples from the pre- and post-monsoon seasons mostly contained the anions HCO- 3 > Cl- > SO2- 4 > NO- 3, while the primary cations were Ca2+ > Mg2+ > Na+ > K+. Groundwater was alkaline and hard at most of the sites. According to hydro-geochemical facies and relationships, Piper diagrams, and principal component analysis, weathering, dissolution, leaching, ion exchange, and evaporation were the key mechanisms influencing groundwater quality. The hydrochemical facies classified the groundwater samples into the Ca-Mg-HCO3 type. For all the sampling locations, PIG was determined to be 0.43, 0.52, 0.47, 0.48, 1.00, and 0.70; respectively. The majority of the test locations fell into the low to medium contamination zone, as determined by the groundwater pollution index (PIG) and contamination index. Three principal components, which together account for 93.8% of the total variance, were identified via PCA. The study's findings confirm the value of these statistical techniques in interpreting and understanding large datasets and offering reliable information to reduce the time and expense of programmes for monitoring and evaluating water quality.

Trends in diagnosed hypertension prevalence by geographic region for older adults with and without diagnosed diabetes, 2005-2017

Given that the prevalence of hypertension increases with age and is more common among adults with diabetes than those without diabetes, the objective of this study was to examine trends in hypertension prevalence by geographic region among older adults with and without diabetes. Among older adults with diabetes, hypertension prevalence generally increased from 2005 to 2017 across all regions, although the annual percent change was lower from 2011 to 2017 than 2005-2011 for all regions.

A comparison of health-related quality of life and personal, social, and environmental factors of older adults according to a residential area: a propensity score matching analysis

PURPOSE

This study identified individual, social, and environmental factors affecting the health-related quality of life (HRQoL) of older individuals living in urban and non-urban areas of the Republic of Korea and investigated their effects on HRQoL.

METHODS

A secondary data analysis study was conducted using raw data from Korea's 2017 Community Health Survey. Propensity score matching (PSM) was performed to compare the individual, social, and environmental characteristics of older individuals living in urban and non-urban areas (16,695 and 29,106 individuals, respectively). Statistical analyses were performed using R program 4.0.5. The differences between variables were analyzed using chi-squared and t-tests, whereas factors influencing HRQoL were analyzed using multiple regression analysis.

RESULTS

Among the individual factors, the living arrangement (p = 0.001, confidence interval [CI] = 0.00-0.02) was an influencing factor in urban areas, whereas it showed no statistical significance in non-urban areas. Moreover, Helping their neighbors (p = 0.001, CI = 0.00-0.01) among the social factors and satisfaction with the living environment (p = 0.011, CI = 0.00-0.02) and with healthcare services (p = 0.047, CI = 0.00-0.01) among the environmental factors were influencing factors in urban areas, whereas they showed no statistical significance in non-urban areas.

CONCLUSION

Satisfaction with the living environment and with healthcare services was positively associated with HRQoL among older individuals living in urban areas. Therefore, factors associated with regional health inequality should be identified, and health equality sought through the development of local government policies that consider diversity in population composition and health indicators by region.

Tick bites in different professions and regions: pooled cross-sectional study in the focus area Bavaria, Germany

Background

As the vector-borne diseases tick-borne encephalitis (TBE) and Lyme borreliosis (LB) are common in Germany and transmitted by tick bites, the aim of this study was to assess differences in the number of tick bites in various professions and regions across southern Germany to evaluate the differences in tick-associated risk.

Materials and methods

The analysis is based on three cross-sectional studies that were conducted in 2016 and 2017 in two real-life settings and in one medical setting in Bavaria. All participants filled in a paper-based questionnaire about their history with tick bites. Only adult participants (≥ 18 years) were included in this study.

Results

Overall, 3503 individuals (mean age 50.8 ± 15.2 years, median age 53.0 ± 12.2 years, 54.0% female) were included. Of these, 50% worked in an outdoor profession and 56% lived in environs. Around 70% of participants reported at least one previous tick bite. In comparison to indoor workers, forestry workers (OR = 2.50; 95% CI: 1.10–5.68) had the highest risk for a tick bite followed by farmers (OR = 1.22; 95% CI: 1.01–1.47). Furthermore, people living in rural areas (OR = 1.97, 95% CI:1.49–2.59) and environs (OR = 1.98, 95% CI: 1.54–2.55) were twice as likely to have a previous tick bite than people living in urban areas. In general, slightly more tick bites were reported by people living in eastern Bavaria.

Conclusion

Rising numbers of TBE and LB indicate the need for further prevention strategies, which should focus on outdoor professions with a higher risk and people living in environs and rural areas.

Prognostic significance of lateral pelvic lymph node dissection for middle-low rectal cancer patients with lateral pelvic lymph node metastasis: a propensity score matching study

Background

There is still controversy regarding the clinical value and significance of lateral pelvic lymph node (LPN) dissection (LPND). The present study aimed to investigate whether the addition of LPND to total mesorectal excision (TME) confers survival benefits in rectal cancer patients with clinical lateral pelvic node metastasis (LPNM).

Methods

From January 2015 to January 2021, a total of 141 rectal cancer patients with clinical evidence of LPNM who underwent TME + LPND were retrospectively analysed and divided into the LPNM group (n = 29) and the non-LPNM group (n = 112). The LPNM group was further subdivided into a high-risk LPNM group (n = 14) and a low-risk LPNM group (n = 15). Propensity score matching (PSM) was performed to minimize selection bias. The primary outcomes of this study were 3-year overall survival (OS) and disease-free survival (DFS).

Results

Of the 141 patients undergoing LPND, the local recurrence rate of patients with LPNM was significantly higher than that of patients without LPNM both before (27.6% vs. 4.5%, P = 0.001) and after (27.6% vs. 3.4%, P = 0.025) PSM. Multivariate analysis revealed that LPNM was an independent risk factor for not only OS (HR: 3.06; 95% CI, 1.15–8.17; P = 0.025) but also DFS (HR: 2.39; 95% CI, 1.18–4.87; P = 0.016) in patients with LPNM after TME + LPND. When the LPNM group was further subdivided, multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that OS and DFS were significantly better in the low-risk group (obturator/internal iliac artery region and < 2 positive LPNs).

Conclusion

Even after LPND, LPNM patients have a poor prognosis. Moreover, LPNM is an independent poor prognostic factor affecting OS and DFS after TME + LPND. However, LPND appears to confer survival benefits to specific patients with single LPN involvement in the obturator region or internal iliac vessel region. Furthermore, LPND may have no indication in stage IV patients and should be selected carefully.

Livestock microbial landscape patterns: Retail poultry microbiomes significantly vary by region and season

Microbes play key roles in animal welfare and food safety but there is little understanding of whether microbiomes associated with livestock vary in space and time. Here we analysed the bacteria associated with the carcasses of the same breed of 28 poultry broiler flocks at different stages of processing across two climatically similar UK regions over two seasons with 16S metabarcode DNA sequencing. Numbers of taxa types did not differ by region, but did by season (P = 1.2 × 10-19), and numbers increased with factory processing, especially in summer. There was also a significant (P < 1 × 10-4) difference in the presences and abundances of taxa types by season, region and factory processing stage, and the signal for seasonal and regional differences remained highly significant on final retail products. This study therefore revealed that both season and region influence the types and abundances of taxa on retail poultry products. That poultry microbiomes differ in space and time should be considered when testing the efficacy of microbial management interventions designed to increase animal welfare and food safety: these may have differential effects on livestock depending on location and timing.

Investigating age and regional effects on the relation between the incidence of heat-related ambulance transport and daily maximum temperature or WBGT

Background

Although age and regional climate are considered to have effects on the incidence ratio of heat-related illness, quantitative estimation of age or region on the effect of occurring temperature for heat stroke is limited.

Methods

By utilizing data on the number of daily heat-related ambulance transport (HAT) in each of three age groups (7–17, 18–64, 65 years old, or older) and 47 prefectures in Japan, and daily maximum temperature (DMT) or Wet Bulb Globe Temperature (DMW) of each prefecture for the summer season, the effects of age and region on heat-related illness were studied. Two-way ANOVA was used to analyze the significance of the effect of age and 10 regions in Japan on HAT. The population-weighted average of DMT or DMW measured at weather stations in each prefecture was used as DMT or DMW for each prefecture. DMT or DMW when HAT is one in 100,000 people (T₁ and W₁, respectively) was calculated for each age category and prefecture as an indicator of heat acclimatization. The relation between T₁ or W₁ and average DMT or DMW of each age category and prefecture were also analyzed.

Results

HAT of each age category and prefecture was plotted nearly on the exponential function of corresponding DMT or DMW. Average R² of the regression function in 47 prefectures in terms of DMW was 0.86, 0.93, and 0.94 for juveniles, adults, and elderly, respectively. The largest regional difference of W₁ in 47 prefectures was 4.5 and 4.8 °C for juveniles and adults, respectively between Hokkaido and Tokyo, 3.9 °C for elderly between Hokkaido and Okinawa. Estimated W₁ and average DMT or DMW during the summer season for 47 prefectures was linearly related. Regarding age difference, the regression line showed that W₁ of the prefecture for DMW at 30 °C of WBGT was 31.1 °C, 32.4 °C, and 29.8 °C for juveniles, adults, and elderly, respectively.

Conclusions

Age and regional differences affected the incidence of HAT. Thus, it is recommended that public prevention measures for heat-related disorders take into consideration age and regional variability.

A fundamental landscape of fungal biogeographical patterns across the main Chinese wine-producing regions and the dominating shaping factors

The microbial terroir plays an indispensable role in the formation of regional wine characteristics. A fundamental landscape of the fungal biogeographical patterns across Chinese wine-producing regions was obtained by characterizing the fungal communities in spontaneous fermentation. After confirming the established national microbial terroir, the fungal heterogeneity was evaluated at different geographical levels. The result showed that the variation between the wineries was more evident than at a regional level. Moreover, the microbial comparability from various regions with similar climates or wineries within the same regions was revealed. Further discriminant analysis determined the specific fungal biomarkers in different regions, while the associated reverse identification model displayed reliable accuracy (>70%). Correlation analysis illustrated the primary role of the geoclimatic factors (>41%) in shaping the fungal geographical patterns, and the relationship between the microbiome and spontaneous fermentation performance. In addition to expanding the knowledge regarding wine microbes, these findings provided a new benchmark for harnessing the microbial terroir to enhance regional wine expression.

A comprehensive analysis of authorship trends in Skeletal Radiology since inception from 1976 to 2020

OBJECTIVE

The purpose of this study is to explore authorship trends within the musculoskeletal radiology subspecialty-focused journal, Skeletal Radiology, from inception to 2020.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Skeletal Radiology articles published in 1976, 1986, 1996, 2006, 2016, and 2020 were reviewed. For each article, the number of authors, the number of distinct institutions, the names of first and last authors, the country of the first author, the article length, and the number of article references were recorded.

RESULTS

A total of 885 articles passed the exclusion criteria to be included in the study. Since inception, there has been a significant increase in the number of SR articles published (P = 0.02), the mean number of authors per article (P < 0.01), the mean number of references per article (P < 0.01), the mean number of distinct institutions per article (P = 0.02), and the mean number of pages per article (P < 0.01). The proportion of female first and last authors significantly increased (P = 0.02, P = 0.02). There was a significant increase in the proportion of articles published from Asia (P = 0.04). However, no significant changes in the proportion of articles published from other regions were observed.

CONCLUSION

Similar to authorship trends in other medical journals, Skeletal Radiology demonstrated upward trends in authorship count, distinct institutional count, and article length. A rise in first and last female authorship was observed. Finally, an increase in the proportion of authors from Asia was observed while no significant changes in the proportion of authors from other regions were demonstrated.

Development trajectory for the temporal and spatial evolution of the resilience of regional tourism environmental systems in 14 cities of Gansu Province, China

The rapid development of the urban economy in China and the accompanying income growth experienced by urban residents have increased demand for tourism and leisure, which has brought pressure on the urban tourism environment system (UTES), making the contradiction between tourism economic development and the ecological environment increasingly acute. While seeking to rationalize the economic, social, and ecological benefits of tourism, reducing the fragility of the UTES and improving its anti-interference and recovery capabilities have become attracted significant attention from scholars in China and elsewhere. This paper establishes a definition of resilience for an UTES and constructs an evaluation index system for it in terms of the social, economic, and ecological environments. It also establishes an entropy weight-TOPSIS resilience evaluation model to measure resilience in regional systems, using ArcGIS to analyze the standard deviation ellipse and center of the gravity track of the resilience. System dynamics was used to construct diagrams of causal relationships and stock flow for the constituent elements of UTES to show the mechanisms that promote its resilience. This paper investigates 14 cities of Gansu Province in particular to simulate the resilience model of a regional system.

Initial assessment of α-synuclein structure in platelets

Over the last few years data from our group have indicated that α-synuclein is important in development of immune cells as well as potentially erythrocytes and platelets. The latter is important since this protein may work as negative regulator of granule release. Thus, we sought to begin to understand the structure of this protein in platelets. Flow cytometric analysis of this protein using region-specific (N-terminus, central region and C-terminus) monoclonal antibodies was performed. Antibody to the central region gave the strongest shift among all three antibodies, with the C-terminus having intermediate shift and N-terminus minimal shift. Western blotting using the same antibodies showed similar binding of all antibodies to α-synuclein. These results suggest a similar arrangement of this protein in platelets as seen in neurons. Future studies ought to look at the role that each protein region plays in platelets.

Climate mitigation in the Mediterranean Europe: An assessment of regional and city-level plans

In Europe, regions in the Mediterranean area share common characteristics in terms of high sensitivity to climate change impacts. Does this translate into specificities regarding climate action that could arise from these Mediterranean characteristics? This paper sheds light on regional and local climate mitigation actions of the Mediterranean Europe, focusing on the plans to reduce greenhouse gases emissions in a representative sample of 51 regions and 73 cities across 9 Mediterranean countries (Croatia, Cyprus, France, Greece, Italy, Malta, Portugal, Slovenia, Spain). The study investigates: (i) the availability of local and regional mitigation plans, (ii) their goals in term of greenhouse gas emissions reduction targets on the short and medium-long term, and (iii) the impact of transnational climate networks on such local and regional climate mitigation planning. Results of this study indicate an uneven and fragmented planning, that shows a Mediterranean West-East divide, and a link with population size. However, overall, both regional and city action seem insufficiently ambitious with regards to meeting the Paris Agreement, at least at city level. While national frameworks are currently weak in influencing regional and local actions, transnational networks seem to be engaging factors for commitment (at city level) and ambitiousness (at regional level). The uneven and fragmented progress revealed by this study, does not align with the characteristics shared by investigated regions and cities in terms of environmental, socio-political, climatic and economic conditions. The results support the call of a common green deal at the Mediterranean level to further address specific Mediterranean challenges and related needs. This will allow to capitalise on available resources, generate local-specific knowledge, build capacities, and support Mediterranean regions and cities in preparing the next generation of more ambitious mitigation plans.

Clinical Characteristics, Prognosis, and Treatment Strategies of TP53 Mutations in Myelodysplastic Syndromes

TP53 gene mutations are common in myelodysplastic syndromes (MDS). Previous studies have reported their detrimental effects on patient survival. However, current treatment strategies mainly based on hypomethylating agent therapy (HMA) and hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (HSCT) still leave a lot to be desired. And there is also a lack of studies on large sample with a view to the refinement of specific characteristics and disease progression. So we performed a meta-analysis including 20 studies compromising 5067 patients to assess the prognostic impact and clinical characteristics of TP53 mutations in MDS patients. The overall hazard ratio for overall survival (OS) was 2.14 (95% confidence interval 1.94-2.37, P < .00001) compared with patients with MDS without TP53 mutations. Lower progression-free survival and leukemia-free survival were associated with TP53 mutations. Subgroup analysis revealed that TP53 mutations were significantly associated with high levels of blast cells and karyotypic aberrations. And among Asian population, the adverse impact on OS of TP53 mutations seemed worse than those in Western countries. (HR 2.87 vs. 2.02, P = .01). In addition, TP53 mutations had no effect on response to HMA therapy, and HSCT improved OS in patients carrying TP53 mutations.

Epidemiology of herpes simplex virus type 2 in Asia: A systematic review, meta-analysis, and meta-regression

Background

Herpes simplex virus type 2 (HSV-2) infection is a prevalent sexually transmitted infection worldwide. This systematic review was conducted to characterize HSV-2 epidemiology in Asia, including the World Health Organization regions of Southeast Asia and the Western Pacific.

Methods

Cochrane and PRISMA guidelines were followed to systematically review and report findings. Pooled mean seroprevalence and proportions of HSV-2 isolated in genital ulcer disease (GUD) and in genital herpes were calculated using random-effects meta-analyses. Meta-regressions were also conducted. Quality assessment was performed.

Findings

HSV-2 measures extracted from 173 publications included 15 seroconversion rates, 11 seroincidence rates, 272 overall seroprevalence measures (678 stratified), 14 proportions of HSV-2 isolation in GUD (15 stratified), and 27 proportions of HSV-2 isolation in genital herpes (36 stratified). Pooled mean seroprevalence was 12.1% (95% confidence interval (CI): 11.0-13.2%) among general populations, 23.6% (95% CI: 20.9-26.3%) among men who have sex with men and transgender people, 46.0% (95% CI: 39.2-52.9%) among HIV-positive individuals and individuals in HIV-discordant couples, and 62.2% (95% CI: 58.9-65.6%) among female sex workers. Among general populations, pooled mean seroprevalence increased gradually from 4.7% (95% CI: 3.3-6.3%) in <20-year-old individuals to 26.6% (95% CI: 19.2-34.7%) in >60-year-old individuals. Compared to women and across all populations, men had 0.60-fold (95% CI: 54.0-67.0) lower seroprevalence, that is women had 70% higher seroprevalence. Seroprevalence declined by 0.98-fold (95% CI: 0.97-0.99) per year, that is a 2% decline per year in the last three decades. Pooled mean proportions of HSV-2 isolation in GUD and in genital herpes were 48.2% (95% CI: 34.9-61.6%) and 75.9% (95% CI: 68.3-82.8%), respectively.

Interpretation

Over 1 in 10 individuals is infected with HSV-2, but seroprevalence is declining. HSV-2 accounts for half of GUD cases and three-quarters of genital herpes cases. These findings support the need for an HSV-2 vaccine and universal access to sexual and reproductive health services.

Funding

This work was supported by the Qatar National Research Fund [NPRP 9-040-3-008] and by pilot funding from the Biomedical Research Program at Weill Cornell Medicine in Qatar.

Temperature-mortality relationship in North Carolina, USA: Regional and urban-rural differences

BACKGROUND

Health disparities exist between urban and rural populations, yet research on rural-urban disparities in temperature-mortality relationships is limited. As inequality in the United States increases, understanding urban-rural and regional differences in the temperature-mortality association is crucial.

OBJECTIVE

We examined regional and urban-rural differences of the temperature-mortality association in North Carolina (NC), USA, and investigated potential effect modifiers.

METHODS

We applied time-series models allowing nonlinear temperature-mortality associations for 17 years (2000-2016) to generate heat and cold county-specific estimates. We used second-stage analysis to quantify the overall effects. We also explored potential effect modifiers (e.g. social associations, greenness) using stratified analysis. The analysis considered relative effects (comparing risks at 99th to 90th temperature percentiles based on county-specific temperature distributions for heat, and 1st to 10th percentiles for cold) and absolute effects (comparing risks at specific temperatures).

RESULTS

We found null effects for heat-related mortality (relative effect: 1.001 (95% CI: 0.995-1.007)). Overall cold-mortality risk for relative effects was 1.019 (1.015-1.023). All three regions had statistically significant cold-related mortality risks for relative and absolute effects (relative effect: 1.019 (1.010-1.027) for Coastal Plains, 1.021 (1.015-1.027) for Piedmont, 1.014 (1.006-1.023) for Mountains). The heat mortality risk was not statistically significant, whereas the cold mortality risk was statistically significant, showing higher cold-mortality risks in urban areas than rural areas (relative effect for heat: 1.006 (0.997-1.016) for urban, 1.002 (0.988-1.017) for rural areas; relative effect for cold: 1.023 (1.017-1.030) for urban, 1.012 (1.001-1.023) for rural areas). Findings are suggestive of higher relative cold risks in counties with the less social association, higher population density, less green-space, higher PM_2.5, lower education level, higher residential segregation, higher income inequality, and higher income (e.g., Ratio of Relative Risks 1.72 (0.68, 4.35) comparing low to high education).

CONCLUSION

Results indicate cold-mortality risks in NC, with potential differences by regional, urban-rural areas, and community characteristics.

Regionalization in elderly care: what makes up a healthcare region?

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to explore the formation and composition of “regions” as places of care, both empirically and conceptually.

Design/methodology/approach

This paper draws on action-oriented research involving experiments aimed at designing, implementing and evaluating promising solutions to the entwined problems of a burgeoning elderly population and an increasing shortage of medical staff. It draws on ethnographic research conducted in 14 administrative areas in the Netherlands, a total of 273 in-depth interviews and over 1,000 h of observations.

Findings

This research challenges the understanding of a healthcare region as a clearly bounded topological area. It shows that organizations and professionals collaborate in a variety of different networks, some conterminous with the administrative region established by policymakers and others not. These networks are by nature unstable and dynamic. Attempts to form new regional collaborations with neighbouring organizations are complicated by existing healthcare governance and accountability structures that position organizations as competitors.

Practical implications

Policymakers should take the pre-established partnerships of healthcare organizations into account before delineating the area in which regionalization is meant to take place. A better alignment of governance and accountability structures is also needed for regionalization to occur in healthcare.

Originality/value

This paper combines insights from valuation studies with sociogeographical literature and provides a framework for understanding the assembling and disassembling of “regions”.

Regional variation in gastroschisis: a nationwide database review of demographics and outcomes

BACKGROUND

Gastroschisis is an index neonatal malformation with an increasing incidence from earlier decades. The aim of this study was to investigate regional variations in patient demographics, outcomes, and costs in gastroschisis.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

The 2016 kid's inpatient database (KID) obtained from the Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project (HCUP) was used to obtain gastroschisis birth, demographic, and outcome data across four U.S. geographical regions: Northeast, Midwest, South, and West. Categorical variables were analyzed with Pearson's Chi-squared test. Odds ratios (OR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI) were reported for variables with significance (p < 0.05). Appropriate logistic regressions were used for comparing categorical, cardinal, and continuous data.

RESULTS

2043 gastroschisis cases were obtained from the 2016 KID database with a weighted incidence of 5.1 per 10,000 live births. Incidence of gastroschisis across regions was similar when controlling for a number of hospitals reporting to KID. Prematurity was common, with 59% (1204) of neonates with gastroschisis born at less than 37 weeks. 52% (N = 1067) of gastroschisis infants were male. 46% (955) were White, 9% (178) African American, 22% (450) Hispanic, and 8% (155) other. The overall mortality of gastroschisis in this database was 3.6% (75). The average length of stay was 39 days and average cost of treatment was $357,436. Though without significant differences in mortality, there were significant differences in demographics, costs, and lengths of stay between regions.

CONCLUSIONS

There has been a significant increase in gastroschisis incidence over the last three decades. This significant increase appears to be related to an increase in socioeconomic inequality and an alteration in the population demographics in the United States. Further study of regional variations will facilitate the development of best practice guidelines that benefit all.

Epidemiology of herpes simplex virus type 2 in sub-Saharan Africa: Systematic review, meta-analyses, and meta-regressions

BACKGROUND

Herpes simplex virus type 2 (HSV-2) infection is a prevalent, sexually transmitted infection with a sizable disease burden that is highest in sub-Saharan Africa. This study aimed to characterize HSV-2 epidemiology in this region.

METHODS

Cochrane and PRISMA guidelines were followed to systematically review, synthesize, and report HSV-2 related findings up to August 23, 2020. Meta-analyses and meta-regressions were conducted.

FINDINGS

From 218 relevant publications, 451 overall outcome measures and 869 stratified measures were extracted. Pooled incidence rates ranged between 2.4-19.4 per 100 person-years across populations. Pooled seroprevalence was lowest at 37.3% (95% confidence interval (CI): 34.9-39.7%) in general populations and high in female sex workers and HIV-positive individuals at 62.5% (95% CI: 54.8-70.0%) and 71.3% (95% CI: 66.5-75.9%), respectively. In general populations, pooled seroprevalence increased steadily with age. Compared to women, men had a lower seroprevalence with an adjusted risk ratio (ARR) of 0.61 (95% CI: 0.56-0.67). Seroprevalence has decreased in recent decades with an ARR of 0.98 (95% CI: 0.97-0.99) per year. Seroprevalence was highest in Eastern and Southern Africa. Pooled HSV-2 proportion in genital ulcer disease was 50.7% (95% CI: 44.7-56.8%) and in genital herpes it was 97.3% (95% CI: 84.4-100%).

INTERPRETATION

Seroprevalence is declining by 2% per year, but a third of the population is infected. Age and geography play profound roles in HSV-2 epidemiology. Temporal declines and geographic distribution of HSV-2 seroprevalence mirror that of HIV prevalence, suggesting sexual risk behavior has been declining for three decades. HSV-2 is the etiological cause of half of genital ulcer disease and nearly all genital herpes cases with limited role for HSV-1.

FUNDING

This work was supported by pilot funding from the Biomedical Research Program at Weill Cornell Medicine in Qatar and by the Qatar National Research Fund [NPRP 9-040-3-008].

Epidemiology of herpes simplex virus type 2 in sub-Saharan Africa: Systematic review, meta-analyses, and meta-regressions

BACKGROUND

Herpes simplex virus type 2 (HSV-2) infection is a prevalent, sexually transmitted infection with a sizable disease burden that is highest in sub-Saharan Africa. This study aimed to characterize HSV-2 epidemiology in this region.

METHODS

Cochrane and PRISMA guidelines were followed to systematically review, synthesize, and report HSV-2 related findings up to August 23, 2020. Meta-analyses and meta-regressions were conducted.

FINDINGS

From 218 relevant publications, 451 overall outcome measures and 869 stratified measures were extracted. Pooled incidence rates ranged between 2.4-19.4 per 100 person-years across populations. Pooled seroprevalence was lowest at 37.3% (95% confidence interval (CI): 34.9-39.7%) in general populations and high in female sex workers and HIV-positive individuals at 62.5% (95% CI: 54.8-70.0%) and 71.3% (95% CI: 66.5-75.9%), respectively. In general populations, pooled seroprevalence increased steadily with age. Compared to women, men had a lower seroprevalence with an adjusted risk ratio (ARR) of 0.61 (95% CI: 0.56-0.67). Seroprevalence has decreased in recent decades with an ARR of 0.98 (95% CI: 0.97-0.99) per year. Seroprevalence was highest in Eastern and Southern Africa. Pooled HSV-2 proportion in genital ulcer disease was 50.7% (95% CI: 44.7-56.8%) and in genital herpes it was 97.3% (95% CI: 84.4-100%).

INTERPRETATION

Seroprevalence is declining by 2% per year, but a third of the population is infected. Age and geography play profound roles in HSV-2 epidemiology. Temporal declines and geographic distribution of HSV-2 seroprevalence mirror that of HIV prevalence, suggesting sexual risk behavior has been declining for three decades. HSV-2 is the etiological cause of half of genital ulcer disease and nearly all genital herpes cases with limited role for HSV-1.

FUNDING

This work was supported by pilot funding from the Biomedical Research Program at Weill Cornell Medicine in Qatar and by the Qatar National Research Fund [NPRP 9-040-3-008].

Spatial changes and driving variables of topsoil organic carbon stocks in Chinese croplands under different fertilization strategies

The effect of different fertilization strategies on changes in soil organic carbon (SOC) largely depends on the current status of a given agricultural region. We analysed the results of 90 long-term field trials (20-37 years) in Chinese croplands to determine the effects of fertilization strategies [i.e., no fertilizer (CK), chemical fertilizer (NPK), manure only (M) and manure plus chemical fertilizers (NPKM)] on soil organic carbon stock (SOC_s) at 0-20 cm depth in the North (NC), Northeast (NEC), Northwest (NWC) and South (SC) China. Compared with initial values, SOC_s increased by 24-68% and 24-74% under NPKM and M applications, respectively, over the experimental periods. Furthermore, final SOC_s under NPKM in NEC and NWC were significantly higher than those under other treatments, but there was no significant difference between NPKM and M in SC and no significant differences among fertilizer treatments in NC. Average SOC stock change rates (SOC_r) were positive under all treatments for all regions except for CK and NPK in NEC, which were negative. There were regional differences in treatment effects: all treatments showed significantly different rates in NC and NWC, whereas there were no significant differences between the M and NPKM in NEC and SC. Random forest (RF) modeling showed that among the selected variables initial SOC_s was the most important in accounting for differences in SOC_r, followed by soil bulk density, mean annual temperature and precipitation for all treatments. Soil total nitrogen content was also an important explanatory variable for SOC_r for CK and NPK, and soil pH for M. This study has highlighted the main driving variables of SOC change which can be of use in optimizing fertilization strategies, by taking account of the baseline SOC_s status and environmental factors for different regions, to minimize soil carbon emissions while maximizing carbon sequestration in soils.

Epidemiology of antimicrobial resistance (AMR) on California dairies: descriptive and cluster analyses of AMR phenotype of fecal commensal bacteria isolated from adult cows

Background

This study describes the occurrence of antimicrobial resistance (AMR) in commensal Escherichia coli and Enterococcus/Streptococcus spp. (ES) isolated from fecal samples of dairy cows and assesses the variation of AMR profiles across regions and seasons following the implementation of the Food and Agricultural Code (FAC) Sections 14400–14408 (formerly known as Senate Bill, SB 27) in California (CA).

Methods

The study was conducted on ten dairies distributed across CA’s three milk sheds: Northern California (NCA), Northern San Joaquin Valley (NSJV), and the Greater Southern California (GSCA). On each study dairy, individual fecal samples were collected from two cohorts of lactating dairy cows during the fall/winter 2018 and spring/summer 2019 seasons. Each cohort comprised of 12 cows per dairy. The fecal samples were collected at enrollment before calving (close-up stage) and then monthly thereafter for four consecutive time points up to 120 days in milk. A total of 2,171 E. coli and 2,158 ES isolates were tested for antimicrobial susceptibility using the broth microdilution method against a select panel of antimicrobials.

Results

The E. coli isolates showed high resistance to florfenicol (83.31% ± 0.80) and sulphadimethoxine (32.45%), while resistance to ampicillin (1.10% ± 0.21), ceftiofur (1.93% ± 0.29), danofloxacin (4.01% ± 0.42), enrofloxacin (3.31% ± 0.38), gentamicin (0.32% ± 0.12) and neomycin (1.61% ± 0.27) had low resistance proportions. The ES isolates were highly resistant to tildipirosin (50.18% ± 1.10), tilmicosin (48% ± 1.10), tiamulin (42%) and florfenicol (46% ± 1.10), but were minimally resistant to ampicillin (0.23%) and penicillin (0.20%). Multidrug resistance (MDR) (resistance to at least 1 drug in ≥3 antimicrobial classes) was observed in 14.14% of E. coli isolates and 39% of ES isolates. Escherichia coli isolates recovered during winter showed higher MDR prevalence compared to summer isolates (20.33% vs. 8.04%). A higher prevalence of MDR was observed in NSJV (17.29%) and GSCA (15.34%) compared with NCA (10.10%).

Conclusions

Our findings showed high rates of AMR to several drugs that are not labeled for use in lactating dairy cattle 20 months of age or older. Conversely, very low resistance was observed for drugs labeled for use in adult dairy cows, such as cephalosporins and penicillin. Overall, our findings identified important differences in AMR by antimicrobial class, region and season.

Standing on Their Own Two Feet: How the New Public Charge Rules Could Impact Non-European LPR Applicants

In February 2020, the U.S. government began to implement a new Public Charge rule that greatly expands the definition of “public charge” when determining admissibility for legal permanent residency (LPR). The rule seeks to determine not only whether applicants used public benefits in the past, but also whether they are likely to use them in the future. However, predicting future use based on characteristics measured at the time of application, such as English language proficiency and income, is difficult. We evaluate the risk of being deemed inadmissible as well as the likelihood of using public assistance by regional group. Using a sample of recently arrived LPRs in the 2013–2017 American Community Survey, we find that Mexicans/Central Americans face disproportionate risk of being deemed a public charge despite their relatively low public assistance use. This increased risk would likely alter the composition of newly admitted LPRs with relatively fewer Mexican/Central American LPRs.

Incidence rates and contemporary trends in primary urethral cancer

PURPOSE

We assessed contemporary incidence rates and trends of primary urethral cancer.

METHODS

We identified urethral cancer patients within Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results registry (SEER, 2004-2016). Age-standardized incidence rates per 1,000,000 (ASR) were calculated. Log linear regression analyses were used to compute average annual percent change (AAPC).

RESULTS

From 2004 to 2016, 1907 patients with urethral cancer were diagnosed (ASR 1.69; AAPC: -0.98%, p = 0.3). ASR rates were higher in males than in females (2.70 vs. 0.55), respectively and did not change over the time (both p = 0.3). Highest incidence rates were recorded in respectively ≥75 (0.77), 55-74 (0.71) and ≤54 (0.19) years of age categories, in that order. African Americans exhibited highest incidence rate (3.33) followed by Caucasians (1.72), other race groups (1.57) and Hispanics (1.57), in that order. A significant decrease occurred over time in Hispanics, but not in other race groups. In African Americans, male and female sex-stratified incidence rates were higher than in any other race group. Urothelial histological subtype exhibited highest incidence rate (0.92), followed by squamous cell carcinoma (0.41), adenocarcinoma (0.29) and other histologies (0.20). In stage stratified analyses, T₁N₀M₀ stage exhibited highest incidence rate. However, it decreased over time (-3.00%, p = 0.02) in favor of T_1-4N_1-2M₀ stage (+ 2.11%, p = 0.02).

CONCLUSION

Urethral cancer is rare. Its incidence rates are highest in males, elderly patients, African Americans and in urothelial histological subtype. Most urethral cancer cases are T₁N₀M₀, but over time, the incidence of T₁N₀M₀ decreased in favor of T_1-4N_1-2M₀.

Total and Sn-2 Fatty Acid Profile in Human Colostrum and Mature Breast Milk of Women Living in Inland and Coastal Areas of China

INTRODUCTION

Although lipid is the major energy source and exerts beneficial effects on infant growth, research on the composition of fatty acid (FA) at the sn-2 position of human milk (HM) in China and abroad is limited.

OBJECTIVES

This study aimed to investigate the FA positional distribution in colostrum and mature HM of women living in the inland and coastal areas of China and explore the potential influences of geographical region and lactation stage on the FA profile of Chinese women.

METHODS

Colostrum milk (n = 61) and mature milk (n = 56) samples were obtained longitudinally from healthy lactating women in Guangzhou and Chengdu, China. Gas chromatography was used to determine the total and sn-2 FA composition.

RESULTS

Significant differences were observed in the FA profile of HM between different regions and lactation stages, with differences in polyunsaturated FA levels being the most pronounced. Nearly 70% of sn-2 FAs were saturated FAs, of which C16:0 accounted for approximately 75%. C8:0, C10:0, C18:0, C20:0, C22:0, and all of the unsaturated FAs were mainly located at the sn-1 and sn-3 positions, while C14:0, C15:0, and C16:0 were mainly at the sn-2 position. The proportion of C12:0 and C17:0 at sn-2 was approximately equivalent to that at the sn-1, 3 positions.

CONCLUSIONS

The results indicate the variability in the FA profile of HM between regions and lactation stages. The contents of polyunsaturated FAs and sn-2 FAs, especially palmitic acid, should be paid more attention when optimizing infant formula.

Multilevel Twin Models: Geographical Region as a Third Level Variable

The classical twin model can be reparametrized as an equivalent multilevel model. The multilevel parameterization has underexplored advantages, such as the possibility to include higher-level clustering variables in which lower levels are nested. When this higher-level clustering is not modeled, its variance is captured by the common environmental variance component. In this paper we illustrate the application of a 3-level multilevel model to twin data by analyzing the regional clustering of 7-year-old children’s height in the Netherlands. Our findings show that 1.8%, of the phenotypic variance in children’s height is attributable to regional clustering, which is 7% of the variance explained by between-family or common environmental components. Since regional clustering may represent ancestry, we also investigate the effect of region after correcting for genetic principal components, in a subsample of participants with genome-wide SNP data. After correction, region no longer explained variation in height. Our results suggest that the phenotypic variance explained by region might represent ancestry effects on height.

In Search of Concerted Strategies for Competitive and Resilient Regions

The European space-economy represents a complex system with a great internal heterogeneity, intensive socioeconomic interactions and differential growth trajectories among countries and regions. The present study aims to investigate the connectivity between spatial competitiveness and resilience in Europe and seeks to design an operational framework for concerted strategies of competitive and resilient regions. To assess the linkage between resilience and competitiveness, we have developed a new measure, viz. the Resilience and Competitiveness Index (RACI) as a function of two constituent sub-indices: Resilience and Competitiveness. This approach is tested on the basis of detailed data on European regions. The empirical results from 268 EU NUTS2 regions offer a solid anchor point for the proposed operational framework for concerted development strategies of competitive and resilient regions. Our research distinguishes and proposes several systematic types of concerted regional strategies according to the performance of a region measured by Resilience and Competiveness sub-indices. A key result of the study is the design of an operational constellation for strategic regional policy evaluation, with a major added value for policy- and decision-making purposes. The use of official data from Eurostat and of standard indicators in our research assures continuity and consistency with the official Regional Competitiveness Index (RCI) classification and measurement, so that policy makers are able to compare the performance of their regions over time and to develop proper concerted strategies accordingly. The clear evidence of a connectivity between regional competitiveness and resilience may help to develop a governance approach that balances competitiveness (mainly represented by productive assets) with resilience (mainly represented by sustainability and ecological awareness) and thus to deal with the complexity in socioeconomic systems.

Temporal profile of SARS-CoV-2 viral load in posterior nasopharyngeal samples: Analysis of 944 patients in Apulia, Italy

Objectives

The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic has heavily impacted Italy. The government's restriction measures have attenuated the burden on hospitals. The association of high viral replication with disease severity suggests the potential for lower viral load in milder clinical presentations.

Methods

The reverse-transcription-polymerase-chain-reaction (RT-PCR) profile of 944 consecutive, non-replicate, positive retropharyngeal swabs was collected from 3 March to 8 June 2020 to investigate the temporal profile of SARS-CoV-2 viral load in the region of Capitanata, Apulia. Cycle threshold (Ct) values of 3 targets (N [nucleocapsid protein], E [envelope protein] and RdRP [RNA-dependent RNA-polymerase]) were analysed.

Results

The median Ct values of the 3 targets increased considerably over the study period, showing a progressive and constant weekly change. The negative detection rate of E and RdRP increased over time. These data suggest that SARS-CoV-2 viral load progressively decreased along the outbreak course. During the first epidemic peak (March and April) the viral load among patients >80-years was significantly higher than for younger subjects. However, in May this age-dependent difference disappeared, underlying viral load reduction in the elderly.

Conclusions

An attenuation of viral transmission or pathogenicity during the epidemic course is suggested, likely due to restriction measures, although viral factors might also be considered.