Medium- to long-run implications of high food prices for global nutrition

The Impact of Climate Variability and Change on Food Security in Sub-Saharan Africa: Perspective from Panel Data Analysis

This study investigates the relationship between climate variables such as rainfall amount, temperature, and carbon dioxide (CO2) emission and the triple dimension of food security (availability, accessibility, and utilization) in a panel of 25 sub-Saharan African countries from 1985 to 2018. After testing for cross-sectional dependence, unit root and cointegration, the study estimated the pool mean group (PMG) panel autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL). The empirical outcome revealed that rainfall had a significantly positive effect on food availability, accessibility, and utilization in the long run. In contrast, temperature was harmful to food availability and accessibility and had no impact on food utilization. Lastly, CO2 emission positively impacted food availability and accessibility but did not affect food utilization. The study took a step further by integrating some additional variables and performed the panel fully modified ordinary least squares (FMOLS) and dynamic ordinary least squares (DOLS) regression to ensure the robustness of the preceding PMG results. The control variables yielded meaningful results in most cases, so did the FMOLS and DOLS regression. The Granger causality test was conducted to determine the causal link, if any, among the variables. There was evidence of a short-run causal relationship between food availability and CO2 emission. Food accessibility exhibited a causal association with temperature, whereas food utilization was strongly connected with temperature. CO2 emission was linked to rainfall. Lastly, a bidirectional causal link was found between rainfall and temperature. Recommendations to the national, sub-regional, and regional policymakers are addressed and discussed.

Climate Change, Flood Disaster Risk and Food Security Nexus in Northern Ghana

This research reviews climate change, flood disasters impacts and food security nexus in northern Ghana. The impacts of climate change include flood disasters which in turn affect food production with subsequent impact on food security. While climate change impact can be positive in some regions, it can be negative in other regions as it could lead to excess or lack of water, which negatively affects food production. Most especially, flood disasters have reportedly become frequent with devastating consequences on food production. Literature further suggests that the frequency of floods and their impacts have the potential to increase in the future. Floods inundate farms, pastures and livestock, which could subsequently reduce crop yields and animal production. Floods also destroys physical infrastructure and disrupts socio-economic activities which are linked to agriculture sector and could affect food production. This eventually decreases food availability, accessibility, utilization, and stability in the region. Northern Ghana has experienced flood disasters with increased frequency, which are related to climate change impacts. Although there is research on climate change, flood disasters, and food security issues in northern Ghana, the literature thus far indicates no clear focus of studies that focuses on the nexus of climate change, flood disasters, and food security of the study site. Thus, this research seeks to review the nexus of climate change, and flood disaster impacts on food security in northern Ghana with their implications on food security in the region. This study has two main research objectives. The first objective of this research is to identify and understand the potential impacts of climate change and flood disasters on food production in the study site. The second research objective is to explain the connection between climate change and flood disasters and the implications of this relationship on food security in the study site. This review study focuses on climate change, flood disasters, and food production to understand the critical impacts of climate change and flood disasters on food security in the northern part of Ghana. The aim of this research is to contribute to literature and discussion of the nexus of climate change, flood disaster impacts and food security sub-Saharan Africa.

Understanding Pathways Between Agriculture, Food Systems, and Nutrition: An Evidence and Gap Map of Research Tools, Metrics, and Methods in the Last 10 Years

New tools, metrics, and methods in agriculture, food systems, and nutrition (A&N) research proliferated in the decade following the 2007-2008 food price crisis. We map these developments across themes derived from conceptual A&N pathways and expert consultations. We created an interactive Evidence and Gap Map (EGM) from a systematic search of published and gray literature since 2008, following Campbell Collaboration guidelines. We retrieved over 30,000 reports from published literature databases, and individually searched 20 online repositories. We systematically screened 24,359 reports by title and/or abstract, 1577 by full report, and included 904 eligible reports. The EGM consists of rows of thematic domains and columns of types of tools, metrics, and methods, as well as extensive coding applied as filters. Each cell of the map represents research surrounding a type of tool, metric, or method within a given theme. Reports in each cell are grouped by stage of development, which expand to a corresponding bibliography. Users can filter EGM reports by various characteristics. The 4 most populated domains were: diets, nutrition, and health; primary food production; water, sanitation, and hygiene; and environment and sustainability. The 4 most common types of metrics, methods, and tools were: diet metrics; footprint analysis (especially water); technology applications; and network or Bayesian analysis. Gaps represent areas of few or no reports of innovation between 2008 and 2018. There were gaps in reports and innovations related to: power or conflicts of interest; food environments; markets; private sector engagement; food loss and waste; conflict; study design and system-level tools, metrics, and methods. The EGM is a comprehensive tool to navigate advances in measurement in A&N research: to highlight trends and gaps, conduct further synthesis and development, and prioritize the agenda for future work. This narrative synthesis accompanies the EGM, which can be found at https://www.anh-academy.org/evidence-and-gap-map.

Islamic finance and food commodity trading: is there a chance to hedge against price volatility and enhance food security?

This paper evaluates current food commodity trading from the Shariah point of view, which is particularly relevant for the MENA region. It focuses on futures contracts as the main instrument for grain trading and analyzes the traders’ activities. Through a qualitative and multifaceted approach, the paper accumulates and evaluates the suggestions for 15 Shariah-based alternatives to futures by contemporary researchers. Sukuk, commodity funds and takaful programs are among potential structures that could be developed and broadly implemented. The research compares the current criticism of futures markets with the opinions of Islamic scholars and researchers, as well as Shariah standards. The paper also evaluates several recent suggestions by researchers to raise the efficiency of the international commodity trading market for the sake of food security. The results show that there is space for cooperation taking into account Islamic financial principles and conventional commodity exchange regulations, in combining existing best practices of the latter and the rulings of the former in engineering a sounder system of grain trading for the benefit of market players and the end consumers. This would require a joint effort and support from exchanges, standard-setting bodies, and regulators. Among the areas of cooperation are the approach towards corners (ihtikar), squeezes, speculation (gharar, maysir, and najash), and defining the border between reasonable and excess speculation; financial architecture using new technologies in developing a commodity trading contract conforming to the Shariah regulations and the exchange requirements. There is a need to develop the ideas for global food contracts and grain reserve systems, and to test the contracts based on existing exchanges.

Change in cost and affordability of a typical and nutritionally adequate diet among socio-economic groups in rural Nepal after the 2008 food price crisis

Diet quality is an important determinant of nutrition and food security and access can be constrained by changes in food prices and affordability. Poverty, malnutrition, and food insecurity are high in Nepal and may have been aggravated by the 2008 food price crisis. To assess the potential impact of the food price crisis on the affordability of a nutritionally adequate diet in the rural plains of Nepal, data on consumption patterns and local food prices were used to construct typical food baskets, consumed by four different wealth groups in Dhanusha district in 2005 and 2008. A modelled diet designed to meet household requirements for energy and essential nutrients at minimum cost, was also constructed using the ‘Cost of Diet’ linear programming tool, developed by Save the Children. Between 2005 and 2008, the cost of the four typical food baskets increased by 19% – 26% and the cost of the nutritionally adequate modelled diet increased by 28%. Typical food baskets of all wealth groups were low in macro and micronutrients. Income data for the four wealth groups in 2005 and 2008 were used to assess diet affordability. The nutritionally adequate diet was not affordable for poorer households in both 2005 and 2008. Due to an increase in household income levels, the affordability scenario did not deteriorate further in 2008. Poverty constrained access to nutritionally adequate diets for rural households in Dhanusha, even before the 2008 food price crisis. Despite increased income in 2008, households remain financially unable to meet their nutritional requirements.

Sustainable food security in India-Domestic production and macronutrient availability

India has been perceived as a development enigma: Recent rates of economic growth have not been matched by similar rates in health and nutritional improvements. To meet the second Sustainable Development Goal (SDG2) of achieving zero hunger by 2030, India faces a substantial challenge in meeting basic nutritional needs in addition to addressing population, environmental and dietary pressures. Here we have mapped-for the first time-the Indian food system from crop production to household-level availability across three key macronutrients categories of 'calories', 'digestible protein' and 'fat'. To better understand the potential of reduced food chain losses and improved crop yields to close future food deficits, scenario analysis was conducted to 2030 and 2050. Under India's current self-sufficiency model, our analysis indicates severe shortfalls in availability of all macronutrients across a large proportion (>60%) of the Indian population. The extent of projected shortfalls continues to grow such that, even in ambitious waste reduction and yield scenarios, enhanced domestic production alone will be inadequate in closing the nutrition supply gap. We suggest that to meet SDG2 India will need to take a combined approach of optimising domestic production and increasing its participation in global trade.

Food Price Spikes Are Associated with Increased Malnutrition among Children in Andhra Pradesh, India

BACKGROUND

Global food prices have risen sharply since 2007. The impact of food price spikes on the risk of malnutrition in children is not well understood.

OBJECTIVE

We investigated the associations between food price spikes and childhood malnutrition in Andhra Pradesh, one of India's largest states, with >85 million people. Because wasting (thinness) indicates in most cases a recent and severe process of weight loss that is often associated with acute food shortage, we tested the hypothesis that the escalating prices of rice, legumes, eggs, and other staples of Indian diets significantly increased the risk of wasting (weight-for-height z scores) in children.

METHODS

We studied periods before (2006) and directly after (2009) India's food price spikes with the use of the Young Lives longitudinal cohort of 1918 children in Andhra Pradesh linked to food price data from the National Sample Survey Office. Two-stage least squares instrumental variable models assessed the relation of food price changes to food consumption and wasting prevalence (weight-for-height z scores).

RESULTS

Before the 2007 food price spike, wasting prevalence fell from 19.4% in 2002 to 18.8% in 2006. Coinciding with India's escalating food prices, wasting increased significantly to 28.0% in 2009. These increases were concentrated among low- (χ(2): 21.6, P < 0.001) and middle- (χ(2): 25.9, P < 0.001) income groups, but not among high-income groups (χ(2): 3.08, P = 0.079). Each 10.0 rupee ($0.170) increase in the price of rice/kg was associated with a drop in child-level rice consumption of 73.0 g/d (β: -7.30; 95% CI: -10.5, -3.90). Correspondingly, lower rice consumption was significantly associated with lower weight-for-height z scores (i.e., wasting) by 0.005 (95% CI: 0.001, 0.008), as seen with most other food categories.

CONCLUSION

Rising food prices were associated with an increased risk of malnutrition among children in India. Policies to help ensure the affordability of food in the context of economic growth are likely critical for promoting children's nutrition.

Agriculture, health, and wealth convergence: bridging traditional food systems and modern agribusiness solutions

The causes of many vexing challenges facing 21st-century society are at the nexus of systems involved in agriculture, health and wealth production, consumption, and distribution. Using food as a test bed, and on the basis of emerging roadmaps that set achievable objectives over a 1- to 3-year horizon, we introduce this special feature with convergence thinking and practice at its core. Specifically, we discuss academic papers structured around four themes: (1) evidence for a need for convergence and underlying mechanisms at the individual and societal levels; (2) strategy for mainstreaming convergence as a driver of business engagement and innovation; (3) convergence in policy and governance; (4) convergence in metrics and methods. Academic papers under each theme are accompanied by a roadmap paper reporting on the current status of concrete transformative convergence-building projects associated with that theme. We believe that the insights provided by these papers have the potential to enable all actors throughout society to singly and collectively work to build supply and demand for nutritious food, in both traditional and modern food systems, while placing the burdens of malnutrition and ill health on their core strategic agendas.

Mainstreaming nutrition metrics in household surveys--toward a multidisciplinary convergence of data systems

Since the 2008 food price crisis, food and nutrition security are back on the global development agenda, with particular emphasis on agricultural pathways toward improved nutrition. Parallel efforts are being promoted to improve the data and metrics for monitoring progress toward positive nutritional outcomes, especially for women and children. Despite the increased investment in tracking nutritional outcomes, these efforts are often made in silos, which create challenges for integrating nutritional data with other sectoral data, such as those related to agriculture. This paper proposes a minimum set of nutrition indicators to be included in nationally representative agricultural (and multitopic) household surveys. Building multisectoral convergence across existing surveys will allow us to better identify priority interventions and to monitor progress toward improved nutrition targets.

Estimating the health effects of greenhouse gas mitigation strategies: addressing parametric, model, and valuation challenges

BACKGROUND

Policy decisions regarding climate change mitigation are increasingly incorporating the beneficial and adverse health impacts of greenhouse gas emission reduction strategies. Studies of such co-benefits and co-harms involve modeling approaches requiring a range of analytic decisions that affect the model output.

OBJECTIVE

Our objective was to assess analytic decisions regarding model framework, structure, choice of parameters, and handling of uncertainty when modeling health co-benefits, and to make recommendations for improvements that could increase policy uptake.

METHODS

We describe the assumptions and analytic decisions underlying models of mitigation co-benefits, examining their effects on modeling outputs, and consider tools for quantifying uncertainty.

DISCUSSION

There is considerable variation in approaches to valuation metrics, discounting methods, uncertainty characterization and propagation, and assessment of low-probability/high-impact events. There is also variable inclusion of adverse impacts of mitigation policies, and limited extension of modeling domains to include implementation considerations. Going forward, co-benefits modeling efforts should be carried out in collaboration with policy makers; these efforts should include the full range of positive and negative impacts and critical uncertainties, as well as a range of discount rates, and should explicitly characterize uncertainty. We make recommendations to improve the rigor and consistency of modeling of health co-benefits.

CONCLUSION

Modeling health co-benefits requires systematic consideration of the suitability of model assumptions, of what should be included and excluded from the model framework, and how uncertainty should be treated. Increased attention to these and other analytic decisions has the potential to increase the policy relevance and application of co-benefits modeling studies, potentially helping policy makers to maximize mitigation potential while simultaneously improving health.

Risk factors associated with the presence and severity of food insecurity in rural Honduras

OBJECTIVE

To identify factors associated with the presence and severity of food insecurity among a sample of Honduran caregivers of young children.

DESIGN

Cross-sectional study in which the dependent variable, household food insecurity, was measured using a fourteen-item questionnaire developed and validated in a population of similar cultural context. A predictive modelling strategy used backwards elimination in logistic regression and multinomial logit regression models to compute odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals for food insecurity.

SETTING

Rural Honduras in the department of Intibucá, between March and April 2009.

SUBJECTS

Two-hundred and ninety-eight Honduran caregivers of children aged 6-18 months.

RESULTS

Ninety-three per cent of households were classified as having some degree of food insecurity (mild, moderate or severe). After controlling for caregiver age and marital status, compared with caregivers with more than primary-school education, those with less than primary-school education had 3·47 (95% CI 1·34, 8·99) times the odds of severe food insecurity and 2·29 (95% CI 1·00, 5·25) times the odds of moderate food insecurity. Our results also found that child anthropometric status was not associated with the presence or severity of food insecurity.

CONCLUSIONS

These results show that among the sociodemographic factors assessed, food insecurity in rural Honduras is associated with maternal education. Understanding key factors associated with food insecurity that are unique to Honduras can inform the design of interventions to effectively mitigate the negative impact of food insecurity on children.

Monitoring the price and affordability of foods and diets globally

Food prices and food affordability are important determinants of food choices, obesity and non-communicable diseases. As governments around the world consider policies to promote the consumption of healthier foods, data on the relative price and affordability of foods, with a particular focus on the difference between 'less healthy' and 'healthy' foods and diets, are urgently needed. This paper briefly reviews past and current approaches to monitoring food prices, and identifies key issues affecting the development of practical tools and methods for food price data collection, analysis and reporting. A step-wise monitoring framework, including measurement indicators, is proposed. 'Minimal' data collection will assess the differential price of 'healthy' and 'less healthy' foods; 'expanded' monitoring will assess the differential price of 'healthy' and 'less healthy' diets; and the 'optimal' approach will also monitor food affordability, by taking into account household income. The monitoring of the price and affordability of 'healthy' and 'less healthy' foods and diets globally will provide robust data and benchmarks to inform economic and fiscal policy responses. Given the range of methodological, cultural and logistical challenges in this area, it is imperative that all aspects of the proposed monitoring framework are tested rigorously before implementation.

Nutrition-sensitive interventions and programmes: how can they help to accelerate progress in improving maternal and child nutrition?

Acceleration of progress in nutrition will require effective, large-scale nutrition-sensitive programmes that address key underlying determinants of nutrition and enhance the coverage and effectiveness of nutrition-specific interventions. We reviewed evidence of nutritional effects of programmes in four sectors--agriculture, social safety nets, early child development, and schooling. The need for investments to boost agricultural production, keep prices low, and increase incomes is undisputable; targeted agricultural programmes can complement these investments by supporting livelihoods, enhancing access to diverse diets in poor populations, and fostering women's empowerment. However, evidence of the nutritional effect of agricultural programmes is inconclusive--except for vitamin A from biofortification of orange sweet potatoes--largely because of poor quality evaluations. Social safety nets currently provide cash or food transfers to a billion poor people and victims of shocks (eg, natural disasters). Individual studies show some effects on younger children exposed for longer durations, but weaknesses in nutrition goals and actions, and poor service quality probably explain the scarcity of overall nutritional benefits. Combined early child development and nutrition interventions show promising additive or synergistic effects on child development--and in some cases nutrition--and could lead to substantial gains in cost, efficiency, and effectiveness, but these programmes have yet to be tested at scale. Parental schooling is strongly associated with child nutrition, and the effectiveness of emerging school nutrition education programmes needs to be tested. Many of the programmes reviewed were not originally designed to improve nutrition yet have great potential to do so. Ways to enhance programme nutrition-sensitivity include: improve targeting; use conditions to stimulate participation; strengthen nutrition goals and actions; and optimise women's nutrition, time, physical and mental health, and empowerment. Nutrition-sensitive programmes can help scale up nutrition-specific interventions and create a stimulating environment in which young children can grow and develop to their full potential.

Can nutrition be promoted through agriculture-led food price policies? A systematic review

OBJECTIVE

To systematically review the available evidence on whether national or international agricultural policies that directly affect the price of food influence the prevalence rates of undernutrition or nutrition-related chronic disease in children and adults.

DESIGN

Systematic review.

SETTING

Global.

SEARCH STRATEGY

We systematically searched five databases for published literature (MEDLINE, EconLit, Agricola, AgEcon Search, Scopus) and systematically browsed other databases and relevant organisational websites for unpublished literature. Reference lists of included publications were hand-searched for additional relevant studies. We included studies that evaluated or simulated the effects of national or international food-price-related agricultural policies on nutrition outcomes reporting data collected after 1990 and published in English.

PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOMES

Prevalence rates of undernutrition (measured with anthropometry or clinical deficiencies) and overnutrition (obesity and nutrition-related chronic diseases including cancer, heart disease and diabetes).

RESULTS

We identified a total of four relevant reports; two ex post evaluations and two ex ante simulations. A study from India reported on the undernutrition rates in children, and the other three studies from Egypt, the Netherlands and the USA reported on the nutrition-related chronic disease outcomes in adults. Two of the studies assessed the impact of policies that subsidised the price of agricultural outputs and two focused on public food distribution policies. The limited evidence base provided some support for the notion that agricultural policies that change the prices of foods at a national level can have an effect on population-level nutrition and health outcomes.

CONCLUSIONS

A systematic review of the available literature suggests that there is a paucity of robust direct evidence on the impact of agricultural price policies on nutrition and health.

Applicability of Aegilops tauschii drought tolerance traits to breeding of hexaploid wheat

Few genes are available to develop drought-tolerant bread wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) cultivars. One way to enhance bread wheat's genetic diversity would be to take advantage of the diversity of wild species by creating synthetic hexaploid wheat (SW) with the genomic constitution of bread wheat. In this study, we compared the expression of traits encoded at different ploidy levels and evaluated the applicability of Aegilops tauschii drought-related traits using 33 Ae. tauschii accessions along with their corresponding SW lines under well-watered and drought conditions. We found wide variation in Ae. tauschii, and even wider variation in the SW lines. Some SW lines were more drought-tolerant than the standard cultivar Cham 6. Aegilops tauschii from some regions gave better performing SW lines. The traits of Ae. tauschii were not significantly correlated with their corresponding SW lines, indicating that the traits expressed in wild diploid relatives of wheat may not predict the traits that will be expressed in SW lines derived from them. We suggest that, regardless of the adaptability and performance of the Ae. tauschii under drought, production of SW could probably result in genotypes with enhanced trait expression due to gene interactions, and that the traits of the synthetic should be evaluated in hexaploid level.

Negative Impact on Calorie Intake Associated with the 2006–08 Food Price Crisis in Latin America

Background

From 2006 to 2008, there were sharp increases in the prices of major food commodities globally, including maize, rice, and wheat. Few studies have contributed empirical evidence of the nutritional impacts of this food price crisis.

Objective

To assess changes in energy intake in response to food price shocks and in relation to calorie adequacy levels in seven Latin American countries.

Methods

Data were drawn from nationally representative household budget surveys. The quadratic almost ideal demand system (QUAIDS) model characterized change patterns in consumption for six food groups and one nonfood group under two scenarios: actual change in food prices by country, and standardized 10% increase in prices across all countries. Energy intakes before and after the crisis were determined once calories were assigned to food items from the ProPAN and US Department of Agriculture food composition databases.

Results

Energy intakes were reduced by 8.0% (range, 0.95% to 15.1%) from precrisis levels across all countries. Ecuador and Panama were the worst affected, followed by Haiti and Nicaragua. There was a consistent, direct relationship between wealth quintile and change in energy intake. Rural areas were affected to the same extent as or a greater extent than urban areas. High positive increases in calorie consumption were found in the richest wealth quintile, exceeding 10% of previous levels in five countries.

Conclusions

Policies and programs targeting the poorest households in both rural and urban areas may be needed to offset the energy deficits associated with food price increases. More research is needed on the effect of food prices and micronutrient nutrition.

Preventing food crises using a food policy approach

A food crisis occurs when rates of hunger and malnutrition rise sharply at local, national, or global levels. This definition distinguishes a food crisis from chronic hunger, although food crises are far more likely among populations already suffering from prolonged hunger and malnutrition. A food crisis is usually set off by a shock to either supply or demand for food and often involves a sudden spike in food prices. It is important to remember that in a market economy, food prices measure the scarcity of food, not its value in any nutritional sense. Except in rare circumstances, the straightforward way to prevent a food crisis is to have rapidly rising labor productivity through economic growth and keep food prices stable while maintaining access by the poor. The formula is easier to state than to implement, especially on a global scale, but it is good to have both the objective, reducing short-run spikes in hunger, and the deep mechanisms, pro-poor economic growth and stable food prices, clearly in mind. A coherent food policy seeks to use these mechanisms, and others, to achieve a sustained reduction in chronic hunger over the long run while preventing spikes in hunger in the short run.

Household dietary diversity and food expenditures are closely linked in rural Bangladesh, increasing the risk of malnutrition due to the financial crisis

In Bangladesh, rice prices are known to be positively associated with the prevalence of child underweight and inversely associated with household nongrain food expenditures, an indicator of dietary quality. The collection of reliable data on household expenditures is relatively time consuming and requires extensive training. Simple dietary diversity scores are increasingly used as measures of food security and as proxies for nutrient adequacy. This study examines associations between a simple dietary diversity score and commonly used indicators of socioeconomic status in Bangladesh. Data representative of rural Bangladesh was collected from 188,835 households over 18 rounds of bi-monthly data collection from 2003-2005. A simple household dietary diversity score was developed by summing the number of days each household consumed an item from each of 7 food groups over a 7-d period. The dietary diversity score was associated with per capita nongrain food expenditures (r = 0.415), total food expenditures (r = 0.327), and total household expenditures (r = 0.332) using Spearman correlations (all P < 0.0001). The frequency of meat and egg consumption showed greater variation across quintiles of total monthly expenditure than other items contributing to the dietary diversity score. After controlling for other measures of socioeconomic status in multiple linear regression models, the dietary diversity score was significantly associated with monthly per capita food and total expenditures. Low dietary diversity during the period prior to major food price increases indicates potential risk for worsening of micronutrient deficiencies and child malnutrition in Bangladesh.

Macronutrient supplementation and food prices in HIV treatment

Infection caused by HIV and malnutrition have a complex interaction and often coexist geographically. Malnutrition has synergistic immune effects and HIV affects nutritional status. HIV care and treatment programs are compelled to confront this dual burden to optimize HIV outcomes. In this article, we review the published literature concerning intervention studies in adults and children and the effect of food prices on HIV treatment programs. While the evidence base is relatively incomplete for specific macronutrient interventions in the context of HIV treatment, it is clear that a new standard of care is needed, guided by experience, rationale, and existing data, in which malnourished patients may easily access nutritional therapies within HIV treatment. From this clinical foundation, we may both treat patients and evaluate novel therapies. Some HIV care and treatment programs provide food-based supplements; however, rising food costs and economic instability may jeopardize the success of these programs. HIV treatment programs may struggle to meet the needs of patients with potential increased rates of malnutrition and food insecurity in the setting of high food prices.

Vitamin A intake and status in populations facing economic stress

Dietary quality and diversity reflect adequacy of vitamin A. Both can deteriorate in response to economic crises. Although the nutritional consequences of the 2008 world food price crisis remain unclear, past studies of diet, status, and socioeconomic standing under usual (deprived) and unusually disruptive times suggest dietary quality and vitamin A status decline in mothers and young children. This is presumably the result of shifting diets to include less preformed vitamin A-rich animal source foods and, to a lesser extent, vegetables and fruits. Cross-sectional assessments of diet, deficiency, and socioeconomic status in a number of countries and surveillance data collected during the Indonesian economic crisis of 1997-8 indicate that the prevalence of vitamin A deficiency, night blindness, and other related disorders (e.g., anemia) may have increased during the 2008 crisis, and that it might not have necessarily recovered once food prices waned later in 2008. Lost employment may be a factor in slow nutritional recovery, despite some easing of food prices. Vitamin A deficiency should still be preventable amid economic instabilities through breast feeding promotion, vitamin A supplementation, fortification of foods targeted to the poor, and homestead food production that can bolster income and diversify the diet.

Castel Gandolfo workshop: an introduction to the impact of climate change, the economic crisis, and the increase in the food prices on malnutrition

The global food supply system is facing serious new challenges from economic and related crises and climate change, which directly affect the nutritional well-being of the poor by reducing their access to nutritious food. To cope, vulnerable populations prioritize consumption of calorie-rich but nutrient-poor food. Consequently, dietary quality and eventually quantity decline, increasing micronutrient malnutrition (or hidden hunger) and exacerbating preexisting vulnerabilities that lead to poorer health, lower incomes, and reduced physical and intellectual capabilities. This article introduces the series of papers in this supplement, which explore the relationships between crises and their cumulative impacts among vulnerable populations, particularly through hidden hunger.

Maternal and young child nutrition adversely affected by external shocks such as increasing global food prices

Rising food prices, resulting from the ongoing global economic crisis, fuel price volatility, and climate change, have an adverse impact upon the poor, especially those in food-importing, resource-limited countries. The conventional approach by large organizations has been to advocate for increased staple crop yields of mainly cereals. High food prices are predicted to continue to at least 2015. Past shocks and their known impacts upon nutrition were reviewed. Price instability and increases have long been an existing global problem, which has been exacerbated by recent macroeconomic shocks such as acute emergencies due to war and civil strife, acute climatic events, increase in food prices, fuel price volatility, dysfunction of the global financial systems, long-term climate change, and the emergence of failed states. The FAO estimated that there were 815 million "hungry" people in 2006, with a now additional 75-135 million with increased vulnerability, and currently it is estimated that there are one billion people at risk of food insecurity. The shocks initially compromise maternal and child nutrition, mainly through a reduction in dietary quality and an increase in micronutrient deficiencies and concomitant increases in infectious disease morbidity and mortality. A further reduction in the quantity of diet may follow with greater underweight and wasting. Recent macroeconomic shocks have greatly increased the number of people who are vulnerable to hunger in developing countries. Nutritional surveillance systems need to be strengthened and expanded to inform policy decisions.

Higher household expenditure on animal-source and nongrain foods lowers the risk of stunting among children 0-59 months old in Indonesia: implications of rising food prices

Because the global financial crisis and high food prices affect food consumption, we characterized the relationship between stunting and nongrain food expenditure at the household level among children 0-59 mo old in Indonesia's rural and urban poor population. Expenditure and height-for-age data were obtained from a population-based sample of 446,473 children in rural and 143,807 in urban poor areas in Indonesia. Expenditure on food was grouped into categories: animal, plant, total nongrain, and grain. The prevalence of stunting in rural and urban poor areas was 33.8 and 31.2%, respectively. In rural areas, the odds ratios (OR) (5th vs. first quintile) for stunting were similar for proportion of household expenditure on animal (0.87; 95% CI = 0.85-0.90; P < 0.0001), plant (0.86; 95% CI = 0.84-0.88; P < 0.0001), and total nongrain (0.85; 95% CI = 0.83-0.87; P < 0.0001). In urban poor areas, the relationship between stunting and proportion of household expenditure on animal sources was stronger than in rural areas (OR 0.78; 95% CI = 0.74-0.81; P < 0.0001), whereas the relationship with nongrain was similar to rural areas (OR 0.88; 95% CI = 0.85-0.92; P < 0.0001) and no relationship was observed with plant sources (OR 0.97; 95% CI = 0.93-1.01; P = 0.13). For grain expenditure, OR for stunting in highest vs. lowest quintile was 1.21 (95% CI = 1.18-1.24; P < 0.0001) in rural and 1.09 (95%CI = 1.04-1.13; P < 0.0001) in urban poor areas. Thus, households that spent a greater proportion on nongrain foods, in particular animal source foods, had a lower prevalence of child stunting. This suggests potential increased risk of malnutrition associated with reductions of household expenditure due to the current global crises.

Household rice expenditure and maternal and child nutritional status in Bangladesh

In Bangladesh, poor rural families often deal with high food costs by purchasing primarily rice. Our objective was to characterize the relationship between household expenditure on rice and nonrice foods with maternal and child malnutrition. Food expenditure data and anthropometry were obtained in a population-based sample of 304,856 households in the Bangladesh Nutrition Surveillance Project, 2000-2005. Food expenditures were categorized as rice and nonrice foods and expressed as quintiles of proportional food expenditure. Of children aged 6-11, 12-23, and 24-59 mo, the prevalence of stunting was 33.5, 56.3, and 53.1%, respectively. The prevalence of maternal underweight (BMI < 18.5 kg/m(2)) was 37.3%. Among children aged 6-11, 12-23, and 24-59 mo, rice expenditures were associated with stunting [odds ratio (OR) 1.11, 95% CI 1.02-1.20, P = 0.01; OR 1.09, 95% CI 1.04-1.13, P < 0.0001; OR 1.13, 95% CI 1.08-1.18, P < 0.0001), respectively, among families in the highest compared with the lowest quintile, adjusting for potential confounders, and nonrice food expenditures were associated with stunting (OR 0.87, 95% CI 0.80-0.95, P = 0.002; OR 0.86, 95% CI 0.83-0.90, P < 0.0001; OR 0.89, 95% CI 0.85-0.94, P < 0.0001) among families in the highest compared with the lowest quintile, adjusting for potential confounders. In the highest compared with the lowest quintile, rice expenditures (OR 1.12, 95% CI 1.08-1.15, P < 0.0001) and nonrice food expenditures (OR 0.93, 95% CI 0.90-0.96, P < 0.0001) were associated with maternal underweight. Households that spent a greater proportion on nonrice foods and less on rice had a lower prevalence of maternal and child malnutrition.

The role of expanded coverage of the national vitamin A program in preventing morbidity and mortality among preschool children in India

Higher food prices increase the risk of vitamin A deficiency among preschool children in poor families, because a larger part of the household food budget is spent on grain foods and less on vitamin A-rich foods. Vitamin A supplementation is an important source of vitamin A for children. Our objective was to characterize coverage of the India national vitamin A program for preschool children and identify risk factors for not receiving vitamin A. Anthropometric and demographic data were examined in 23,008 children aged 12-59 mo in the India National Family Health Survey, 2005-2006. Within the last 6 mo, 20.2% of children received vitamin A supplementation. The prevalence of stunting, severe stunting, underweight, and severe underweight was higher among children who did not receive vitamin A compared with those who received vitamin A (P < 0.0001). In families with a child who did and did not receive vitamin A, respectively, the proportion with a history of under-5 child mortality was 8.4 vs. 11.4% (P < 0.0001). By state, vitamin A program coverage was inversely proportional to the under-5 child mortality rate (r = -0.51; P = 0.004). Maternal education of > or =10 y [odds ratio (OR) 2.22; 95% CI 1.69-2.91], 7-9 y (OR 1.99; 95% CI 1.57-2.53), or 1-6 y (OR 1.65; 95% CI 1.28-2.13) compared with no education was an important factor related to receipt of vitamin A. Poor coverage of the vitamin A supplementation program in India has serious implications in the face of rising food prices. Expanded coverage of the vitamin A program in India will help protect children from morbidity, mortality, and blindness.

Impact of the economic crisis and increase in food prices on child mortality: exploring nutritional pathways

The current economic crisis and food price increase may have a widespread impact on the nutritional and health status of populations, especially in the developing world. Gains in child survival over the past few decades are likely to be threatened and millennium development goals will be harder to achieve. Beyond starvation, which is one of the causes of death in famine situations, there are numerous nutritional pathways by which childhood mortality can increase. These include increases in childhood wasting and stunting, intrauterine growth restriction, and micronutrient deficiencies such as that of vitamin A, iron, and zinc when faced with a food crisis and decreased food availability. These pathways are elucidated and described. Although estimates of the impact of the current crisis on child mortality are yet to be made, data from previous economic crises provide evidence of an increase in childhood mortality that we review. The current situation also emphasizes that there are vast segments of the world's population living in a situation of chronic food insecurity that are likely to be disproportionately affected by an economic crisis. Nutritional and health surveillance data are urgently needed in such populations to monitor both the impacts of a crisis and of interventions. Addressing the nutritional needs of children and women in response to the present crisis is urgent. But, ensuring that vulnerable populations are also targeted with known nutritional interventions at all times is likely to have a substantial impact on child mortality.

How to ensure nutrition security in the global economic crisis to protect and enhance development of young children and our common future

The global economic crisis, commodity price hikes, and climate change have worsened the position of the poorest and most vulnerable people. These crises are compromising the diet and health of up to 80% of the population in most developing countries and threaten the development of almost an entire generation of children ( approximately 250 million), because the period from conception until 24 mo of age irreversibly shapes people's health and intellectual ability. High food prices reduce diversity and nutritional quality of the diet and for many also reduce food quantity. Poor households are hit hardest, because they already spend 50-80% of expenditures on food, little on medicines, education, transport, or cooking fuel, and cannot afford to pay more. Reduced public spending, declining incomes, increased food and fuel prices, and reduced remittance thus impede and reverse progress made toward Millenium Development Goals 1, 4, and 5. Investments in nutrition are among the most cost-effective development interventions because of very high benefit:cost ratios, for individuals and for sustainable growth of countries, because they protect health, prevent disability, boost economic productivity, and save lives. To bridge the gap between nutrient requirements, particularly for groups with high needs, and the realistic dietary intake under the prevailing circumstances, the use of complementary food supplements to increase a meal's nutrient content is recommended. This can be in the form of, e.g., micronutrient powder or low-dose lipid-based nutrient supplements, which can be provided for free, in return for vouchers, at subsidized, or at commercial prices.

Safety nets can help address the risks to nutrition from increasing climate variability

Models of climate change predict increased variability of weather as well as changes in agro-ecology. The increased variability will pose special challenges for nutrition. This study reviews evidence on climate shocks and nutrition and estimates the economic consequences in terms of reduced schooling and economic productivity stemming from nutritional insults in childhood. Panel data covering up to 20 y indicate that that short-term climate shocks have long-term impacts on children that persist, often into their adult lives. Other studies document the potential for relief programs to offset these shocks providing that the programs can be implemented with flexible financing, rapid identification of those affected by the shock, and timely scale-up. The last of these presumes that programs are already in place with contingency plans drawn up. Arguably, direct food distribution, including that of ready-to-use therapeutic food, may be part of the overall strategy. Even if such programs are too expensive for sustainable widespread use in the prevention of malnutrition, scalable food distribution programs may be cost effective to address the heightened risk of malnutrition following weather-related shocks.

The food, fuel, and financial crises affect the urban and rural poor disproportionately: a review of the evidence

The vulnerability of the urban poor to the recent food and fuel price crisis has been widely acknowledged. The unfolding global financial crisis, which brings higher unemployment and underemployment, is likely to further intensify this vulnerability. This paper reviews the evidence concerning the disproportionate vulnerability of the urban compared with the rural poor to these types of shocks. It reviews some of the unique characteristics of urban life that could make the urban poor particularly susceptible to price and financial shocks and summarizes the evidence regarding the disproportionate vulnerability of the urban poor. The focus is on impacts on poverty, food insecurity, and malnutrition. The review shows that although the urban poor are clearly one of the population groups most affected by the current (and previous) crises, the rural poor, landless, and net buyers are in no better position to confront the crisis without significant suffering. The poorest of the poor are the ones who will be most affected, irrespective of the continent, country, or urban or rural area where they live. The magnitude and severity of their suffering depends on their ability to adapt and on the specific nature, extent, and duration of the coping strategies they adopt. A better understanding of how these coping strategies are used and staggered is critical to help design triggers for action that can prevent households from moving to more desperate measures. Using these early coping strategies as early warning indicators could help prevent dramatic losses in welfare.

High food prices and the global financial crisis have reduced access to nutritious food and worsened nutritional status and health

A global economic and financial crisis is engulfing the developing world, coming on top of high food and fuel prices. This paper assesses the impact of the crises on food consumption, nutrition, and health. Several methods were applied, including risk analysis using the cost of the food basket, assessment surveys, simulations, regression analysis using a food consumption score (FCS), reflecting diet frequency and diversity, and a review of the impact of such dietary changes on nutritional status and health. The cost of the food basket increased in several countries, forcing households to reduce quality and quantity of food consumed. The FCS, which is a measure of diet diversity, is negatively correlated with food prices. Simulations show that energy consumption declined during 2006-2010 in nearly all developing regions, resulting potentially in an additional 457 million people (of 4.5 billion) at risk of being hungry and many more unable to afford the dietary quality required to perform, develop, and grow well. As a result of the crises, large numbers of vulnerable households have reduced the quality and quantity of foods they consume and are at risk of increased malnutrition. Population groups most affected are those with the highest requirements, including young children, pregnant and lactating women, and the chronically ill (particularly people with HIV/AIDS and tuberculosis). Because undernutrition during the first 2 y of life has life-long consequences, even short-term price rises will have long-term effects. Thus, measures to mitigate the impact of the crises are urgently required.