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Dai X, Gil GF, Reitsma MB, Ahmad NS, Anderson JA, Bisignano C, Carr S, Feldman R, Hay SI, He J, Iannucci V, Lawlor HR, Malloy MJ, Marczak LB, McLaughlin SA, Morikawa L, Mullany EC, Nicholson SI, O'Connell EM, Okereke C, Sorensen RJD, Whisnant J, Aravkin AY, Zheng P, Murray CJL, Gakidou E. Health effects associated with smoking: a Burden of Proof study. Nat Med 2022; 28:2045-2055. [PMID: 36216941 PMCID: PMC9556318 DOI: 10.1038/s41591-022-01978-x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 33] [Impact Index Per Article: 16.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/11/2022] [Accepted: 07/28/2022] [Indexed: 12/17/2022]
Abstract
As a leading behavioral risk factor for numerous health outcomes, smoking is a major ongoing public health challenge. Although evidence on the health effects of smoking has been widely reported, few attempts have evaluated the dose-response relationship between smoking and a diverse range of health outcomes systematically and comprehensively. In the present study, we re-estimated the dose-response relationships between current smoking and 36 health outcomes by conducting systematic reviews up to 31 May 2022, employing a meta-analytic method that incorporates between-study heterogeneity into estimates of uncertainty. Among the 36 selected outcomes, 8 had strong-to-very-strong evidence of an association with smoking, 21 had weak-to-moderate evidence of association and 7 had no evidence of association. By overcoming many of the limitations of traditional meta-analyses, our approach provides comprehensive, up-to-date and easy-to-use estimates of the evidence on the health effects of smoking. These estimates provide important information for tobacco control advocates, policy makers, researchers, physicians, smokers and the public.
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Affiliation(s)
- Xiaochen Dai
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA.
- Department of Health Metrics Sciences, School of Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA.
| | - Gabriela F Gil
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Marissa B Reitsma
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Noah S Ahmad
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Jason A Anderson
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Catherine Bisignano
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Sinclair Carr
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Rachel Feldman
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Simon I Hay
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
- Department of Health Metrics Sciences, School of Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Jiawei He
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
- Department of Health Metrics Sciences, School of Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Vincent Iannucci
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Hilary R Lawlor
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Matthew J Malloy
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Laurie B Marczak
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Susan A McLaughlin
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Larissa Morikawa
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Erin C Mullany
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Sneha I Nicholson
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Erin M O'Connell
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Chukwuma Okereke
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Reed J D Sorensen
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Joanna Whisnant
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Aleksandr Y Aravkin
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
- Department of Applied Mathematics, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Peng Zheng
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
- Department of Health Metrics Sciences, School of Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Christopher J L Murray
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
- Department of Health Metrics Sciences, School of Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Emmanuela Gakidou
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
- Department of Health Metrics Sciences, School of Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
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Lee PN, Coombs KJ. Systematic review with meta-analysis of the epidemiological evidence relating smoking to type 2 diabetes. World J Meta-Anal 2020; 8:119-152. [DOI: 10.13105/wjma.v8.i2.119] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/05/2020] [Revised: 04/02/2020] [Accepted: 04/20/2020] [Indexed: 02/06/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Evidence relating tobacco smoking to type 2 diabetes has accumulated rapidly in the last few years, rendering earlier reviews considerably incomplete.
AIM To review and meta-analyse evidence from prospective studies of the relationship between smoking and the onset of type 2 diabetes.
METHODS Prospective studies were selected if the population was free of type 2 diabetes at baseline and evidence was available relating smoking to onset of the disease. Papers were identified from previous reviews, searches on Medline and Embase and reference lists. Data were extracted on a range of study characteristics and relative risks (RRs) were extracted comparing current, ever or former smokers with never smokers, and current smokers with non-current smokers, as well as by amount currently smoked and duration of quitting. Fixed- and random-effects estimates summarized RRs for each index of smoking overall and by various subdivisions of the data: Sex; continent; publication year; method of diagnosis; nature of the baseline population (inclusion/exclusion of pre-diabetes); number of adjustment factors; cohort size; number of type 2 diabetes cases; age; length of follow-up; definition of smoking; and whether or not various factors were adjusted for. Tests of heterogeneity and publication bias were also conducted.
RESULTS The literature searches identified 157 relevant publications providing results from 145 studies. Fifty-three studies were conducted in Asia and 53 in Europe, with 32 in North America, and seven elsewhere. Twenty-four were in males, 10 in females and the rest in both sexes. Fifteen diagnosed type 2 diabetes from self-report by the individuals, 79 on medical records, and 51 on both. Studies varied widely in size of the cohort, number of cases, length of follow-up, and age. Overall, random-effects estimates of the RR were 1.33 [95% confidence interval (CI): 1.28-1.38] for current vs never smoking, 1.28 (95%CI: 1.24-1.32) for current vs non-smoking, 1.13 (95%CI: 1.11-1.16) for former vs never smoking, and 1.25 (95%CI: 1.21-1.28) for ever vs never smoking based on, respectively, 99, 156, 100 and 100 individual risk estimates. Risk estimates were generally elevated in each subdivision of the data by the various factors considered (exceptions being where numbers of estimates in the subsets were very low), though there was significant (P < 0.05) evidence of variation by level for some factors. Dose-response analysis showed a clear trend of increasing risk with increasing amount smoked by current smokers and of decreasing risk with increasing time quit. There was limited evidence of publication bias.
CONCLUSION The analyses confirmed earlier reports of a modest dose-related association of current smoking and a weaker dose-related association of former smoking with type 2 diabetes risk.
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Affiliation(s)
- Peter N Lee
- Department of Statistics, P.N. Lee Statistics and Computing Ltd., Sutton SM2 5DA, Surrey, United Kingdom
| | - Katharine J Coombs
- Department of Statistics, P.N. Lee Statistics and Computing Ltd., Sutton SM2 5DA, Surrey, United Kingdom
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Bowe B, Xie Y, Li T, Yan Y, Xian H, Al-Aly Z. The 2016 global and national burden of diabetes mellitus attributable to PM 2·5 air pollution. Lancet Planet Health 2018; 2:e301-e312. [PMID: 30074893 DOI: 10.1016/s2542-5196(18)30140-2] [Citation(s) in RCA: 180] [Impact Index Per Article: 30.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/19/2018] [Revised: 05/22/2018] [Accepted: 06/05/2018] [Indexed: 05/22/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND PM2·5 air pollution is associated with increased risk of diabetes; however, a knowledge gap exists to further define and quantify the burden of diabetes attributable to PM2·5 air pollution. Therefore, we aimed to define the relationship between PM2·5 and diabetes. We also aimed to characterise an integrated exposure response function and to provide a quantitative estimate of the global and national burden of diabetes attributable to PM2·5. METHODS We did a longitudinal cohort study of the association of PM2·5 with diabetes. We built a cohort of US veterans with no previous history of diabetes from various databases. Participants were followed up for a median of 8·5 years, we and used survival models to examine the association between PM2·5 and the risk of diabetes. All models were adjusted for sociodemographic and health characteristics. We tested a positive outcome control (ie, risk of all-cause mortality), negative exposure control (ie, ambient air sodium concentrations), and a negative outcome control (ie, risk of lower limb fracture). Data for the models were reported as hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% CIs. Additionally, we reviewed studies of PM2·5 and the risk of diabetes, and used the estimates to build a non-linear integrated exposure response function to characterise the relationship across all concentrations of PM2·5 exposure. We included studies into the building of the integrated exposure response function if they scored at least a four on the Newcastle-Ottawa Quality Assessment Scale and were only included if the outcome was type 2 diabetes or all types of diabetes. Finally, we used the Global Burden of Disease study data and methodologies to estimate the attributable burden of disease (ABD) and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) of diabetes attributable to PM2·5 air pollution globally and in 194 countries and territories. FINDINGS We examined the relationship of PM2·5 and the risk of incident diabetes in a longitudinal cohort of 1 729 108 participants followed up for a median of 8·5 years (IQR 8·1-8·8). In adjusted models, a 10 μg/m3 increase in PM2·5 was associated with increased risk of diabetes (HR 1·15, 95% CI 1·08-1·22). PM2·5 was associated with increased risk of death as the positive outcome control (HR 1·08, 95% CI 1·03-1·13), but not with lower limb fracture as the negative outcome control (1·00, 0·91-1·09). An IQR increase (0·045 μg/m3) in ambient air sodium concentration as the negative exposure control exhibited no significant association with the risk of diabetes (HR 1·00, 95% CI 0·99-1·00). An integrated exposure response function showed that the risk of diabetes increased substantially above 2·4 μg/m3, and then exhibited a more moderate increase at concentrations above 10 μg/m3. Globally, ambient PM2·5 contributed to about 3·2 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 2·2-3·8) incident cases of diabetes, about 8·2 million (95% UI 5·8-11·0) DALYs caused by diabetes, and 206 105 (95% UI 153 408-259 119) deaths from diabetes attributable to PM2·5 exposure. The burden varied substantially among geographies and was more heavily skewed towards low-income and lower-to-middle-income countries. INTERPRETATION The global toll of diabetes attributable to PM2·5 air pollution is significant. Reduction in exposure will yield substantial health benefits. FUNDING US Department of Veterans Affairs.
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Affiliation(s)
- Benjamin Bowe
- Clinical Epidemiology Center, Research and Education Service, VA Saint Louis Health Care System, Saint Louis, Missouri, MO, USA; Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Saint Louis University, Saint Louis, MO, USA
| | - Yan Xie
- Clinical Epidemiology Center, Research and Education Service, VA Saint Louis Health Care System, Saint Louis, Missouri, MO, USA
| | - Tingting Li
- Clinical Epidemiology Center, Research and Education Service, VA Saint Louis Health Care System, Saint Louis, Missouri, MO, USA; Department of Medicine, Washington University School of Medicine, Saint Louis, MO, USA
| | - Yan Yan
- Clinical Epidemiology Center, Research and Education Service, VA Saint Louis Health Care System, Saint Louis, Missouri, MO, USA; Division of Public Health Sciences, Department of Surgery, Washington University School of Medicine, Saint Louis, MO, USA
| | - Hong Xian
- Clinical Epidemiology Center, Research and Education Service, VA Saint Louis Health Care System, Saint Louis, Missouri, MO, USA; Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Saint Louis University, Saint Louis, MO, USA
| | - Ziyad Al-Aly
- Clinical Epidemiology Center, Research and Education Service, VA Saint Louis Health Care System, Saint Louis, Missouri, MO, USA; Nephrology Section, Medicine Service, VA Saint Louis Health Care System, Saint Louis, Missouri, MO, USA; Department of Medicine, Washington University School of Medicine, Saint Louis, MO, USA; Institute for Public Health, Washington University in Saint Louis, Saint Louis, MO, USA.
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Association of passive and active smoking with incident type 2 diabetes mellitus in the elderly population: the KORA S4/F4 cohort study. Eur J Epidemiol 2010; 25:393-402. [PMID: 20369275 DOI: 10.1007/s10654-010-9452-6] [Citation(s) in RCA: 65] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/24/2009] [Accepted: 03/18/2010] [Indexed: 12/21/2022]
Abstract
Active smoking is a risk factor for type 2 diabetes (T2DM), but it is unclear whether exposure to environmental tobacco smoke (ETS) is also associated with T2DM. The effect of passive and active smoking on the 7-year T2DM incidence was investigated in a population-based cohort in Southern Germany (KORA S4/F4; 1,223 subjects aged 55-74 years at baseline in 1999-2001, 887 subjects at follow-up). Incident diabetes was identified by oral glucose tolerance tests or by validated physician diagnoses. Among never smokers, subjects exposed to ETS had an increased diabetes risk in the total sample (odds ratio (OR) = 2.5; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.1, 5.6) and in a subgroup of subjects having prediabetes at baseline (OR = 4.4; 95% CI: 1.5, 13.4) after adjusting for age, sex, parental diabetes, socioeconomic status, and lifestyle factors. Active smoking also had a statistically significant effect on diabetes incidence in the total sample (OR = 2.8; 95% CI: 1.3, 6.1) and in prediabetic subjects (OR = 7.8; 95% CI: 2.4, 25.7). Additional adjustment for components of the metabolic syndrome including waist circumference did not attenuate any of these associations. This study provides evidence that both passive and active smoking is associated with T2DM.
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Yun HE, Han MA, Kim KS, Park J, Kang MG, Ryu SY. Associated Factors of Impaired Fasting Glucose in Some Korean Rural Adults. J Prev Med Public Health 2010; 43:309-18. [DOI: 10.3961/jpmph.2010.43.4.309] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/09/2022] Open
Affiliation(s)
- Hye Eun Yun
- Department of Health Sciences, Graduate School of Chosun University, Korea
| | - Mi-ah Han
- National Cancer Control Research Institute, National Cancer Center, Korea
| | - Ki Soon Kim
- Department of Preventive Medicine, Chosun University Medical School, Korea
| | - Jong Park
- Department of Preventive Medicine, Chosun University Medical School, Korea
| | - Myeng Guen Kang
- Department of Preventive Medicine, Chosun University Medical School, Korea
| | - So Yeon Ryu
- Department of Preventive Medicine, Chosun University Medical School, Korea
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Zhang S, Tong W, Xu T, Wu B, Zhang Y. Diabetes and impaired fasting glucose in Mongolian population, Inner Mongolia, China. Diabetes Res Clin Pract 2009; 86:124-9. [PMID: 19712989 DOI: 10.1016/j.diabres.2009.07.013] [Citation(s) in RCA: 13] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/22/2009] [Revised: 07/12/2009] [Accepted: 07/27/2009] [Indexed: 11/22/2022]
Abstract
AIMS The aims of this study is to assess the prevalence of diabetes and IFG and compare the risk factors between diabetes and IFG in the Mongolian population, China. METHODS Data on demographic characteristics, lifestyle risk factors, family history of hypertension, medical history and fasting plasma glucose were obtained and analyzed for all individuals. RESULTS Total 2589 Mongolians aged 20 years or more were recruited as study subjects. The overall prevalence of diabetes and IFG was 3.7% (males 3.9%; females 3.5%) and 18.5% (males 17.7%; females 19.0%), respectively. Multivariate logistic analysis showed that diabetes was significantly associated with age (odds ratio: 1.26), overweight (1.86), high triglycerides (1.96), family history of hypertension (1.86), heart rate (1.05) and high C-reactive protein (3.59), and IFG significantly associated with age (odds ratio: 1.11), low high-density lipoprotein-cholesterol (1.80), family history of hypertension (1.60), heart rate (1.03) and high C-reactive protein (2.73). CONCLUSIONS IFG were common among Mongolian people living in the northeast of China. IFG has partly same risk factors as diabetes, and prevalence of some cardiovascular risk factors and number of risk factor in diabetes were higher than that in IFG.
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Affiliation(s)
- Shaoyan Zhang
- Department of Epidemiology, Soochow University School of Radiation Medicine and Public Health, Industrial Park District, Suzhou 215123, China
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