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Ayoub HH, Tomy M, Chemaitelly H, Altarawneh HN, Coyle P, Tang P, Hasan MR, Al Kanaani Z, Al Kuwari E, Butt AA, Jeremijenko A, Kaleeckal AH, Latif AN, Shaik RM, Nasrallah GK, Benslimane FM, Al Khatib HA, Yassine HM, Al Kuwari MG, Al Romaihi HE, Abdul-Rahim HF, Al-Thani MH, Al Khal A, Bertollini R, Abu-Raddad LJ. Estimating protection afforded by prior infection in preventing reinfection: applying the test-negative study design. Am J Epidemiol 2024; 193:883-897. [PMID: 38061757 PMCID: PMC11145912 DOI: 10.1093/aje/kwad239] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/23/2022] [Revised: 11/20/2023] [Accepted: 12/04/2023] [Indexed: 06/04/2024] Open
Abstract
The COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted the need to use infection testing databases to rapidly estimate effectiveness of prior infection in preventing reinfection ($P{E}_S$) by novel severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variants. Mathematical modeling was used to demonstrate a theoretical foundation for applicability of the test-negative, case-control study design to derive $P{E}_S$. Apart from the very early phase of an epidemic, the difference between the test-negative estimate for $P{E}_S$ and true value of $P{E}_S$ was minimal and became negligible as the epidemic progressed. The test-negative design provided robust estimation of $P{E}_S$ and its waning. Assuming that only 25% of prior infections are documented, misclassification of prior infection status underestimated $P{E}_S$, but the underestimate was considerable only when > 50% of the population was ever infected. Misclassification of latent infection, misclassification of current active infection, and scale-up of vaccination all resulted in negligible bias in estimated $P{E}_S$. The test-negative design was applied to national-level testing data in Qatar to estimate $P{E}_S$ for SARS-CoV-2. $P{E}_S$ against SARS-CoV-2 Alpha and Beta variants was estimated at 97.0% (95% CI, 93.6-98.6) and 85.5% (95% CI, 82.4-88.1), respectively. These estimates were validated using a cohort study design. The test-negative design offers a feasible, robust method to estimate protection from prior infection in preventing reinfection.
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Affiliation(s)
- Houssein H Ayoub
- Mathematics Program, Department of Mathematics and Statistics, College of Arts and Sciences, Qatar University, Doha, Qatar
| | - Milan Tomy
- Mathematics Program, Department of Mathematics and Statistics, College of Arts and Sciences, Qatar University, Doha, Qatar
- Infectious Disease Epidemiology Group, Weill Cornell Medicine–Qatar, Cornell University, Doha, Qatar
- World Health Organization Collaborating Centre for Disease Epidemiology Analytics on HIV/AIDS, Sexually Transmitted Infections, and Viral Hepatitis, Weill Cornell Medicine–Qatar, Cornell University, Qatar Foundation–Education City, Doha, Qatar
| | - Hiam Chemaitelly
- Infectious Disease Epidemiology Group, Weill Cornell Medicine–Qatar, Cornell University, Doha, Qatar
- World Health Organization Collaborating Centre for Disease Epidemiology Analytics on HIV/AIDS, Sexually Transmitted Infections, and Viral Hepatitis, Weill Cornell Medicine–Qatar, Cornell University, Qatar Foundation–Education City, Doha, Qatar
- Department of Population Health Sciences, Weill Cornell Medicine, Cornell University, New York, NY 10065, United States
| | - Heba N Altarawneh
- Infectious Disease Epidemiology Group, Weill Cornell Medicine–Qatar, Cornell University, Doha, Qatar
- World Health Organization Collaborating Centre for Disease Epidemiology Analytics on HIV/AIDS, Sexually Transmitted Infections, and Viral Hepatitis, Weill Cornell Medicine–Qatar, Cornell University, Qatar Foundation–Education City, Doha, Qatar
- Department of Population Health Sciences, Weill Cornell Medicine, Cornell University, New York, NY 10065, United States
| | - Peter Coyle
- Hamad Medical Corporation, Doha, Qatar
- Biomedical Research Center, Member of QU Health, Qatar University, Doha, Qatar
- Wellcome-Wolfson Institute for Experimental Medicine, Queens University, Belfast BT9 7BL, United Kingdom
| | - Patrick Tang
- Department of Pathology, Sidra Medicine, Doha, Qatar
| | | | | | | | - Adeel A Butt
- Department of Population Health Sciences, Weill Cornell Medicine, Cornell University, New York, NY 10065, United States
- Hamad Medical Corporation, Doha, Qatar
| | | | | | | | | | - Gheyath K Nasrallah
- Biomedical Research Center, Member of QU Health, Qatar University, Doha, Qatar
- Department of Biomedical Science, College of Health Sciences, Member of QU Health, Qatar University, Doha, Qatar
| | - Fatiha M Benslimane
- Biomedical Research Center, Member of QU Health, Qatar University, Doha, Qatar
- Department of Biomedical Science, College of Health Sciences, Member of QU Health, Qatar University, Doha, Qatar
| | - Hebah A Al Khatib
- Department of Biomedical Science, College of Health Sciences, Member of QU Health, Qatar University, Doha, Qatar
| | - Hadi M Yassine
- Biomedical Research Center, Member of QU Health, Qatar University, Doha, Qatar
- Department of Biomedical Science, College of Health Sciences, Member of QU Health, Qatar University, Doha, Qatar
| | | | | | - Hanan F Abdul-Rahim
- Department of Public Health, College of Health Sciences, Member of QU Health, Qatar University, Doha, Qatar
| | | | | | | | - Laith J Abu-Raddad
- Infectious Disease Epidemiology Group, Weill Cornell Medicine–Qatar, Cornell University, Doha, Qatar
- World Health Organization Collaborating Centre for Disease Epidemiology Analytics on HIV/AIDS, Sexually Transmitted Infections, and Viral Hepatitis, Weill Cornell Medicine–Qatar, Cornell University, Qatar Foundation–Education City, Doha, Qatar
- Department of Population Health Sciences, Weill Cornell Medicine, Cornell University, New York, NY 10065, United States
- Department of Public Health, College of Health Sciences, Member of QU Health, Qatar University, Doha, Qatar
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Sukik L, Chemaitelly H, Ayoub HH, Coyle P, Tang P, Yassine HM, Al Thani AA, Hasan MR, Al-Kanaani Z, Al-Kuwari E, Jeremijenko A, Kaleeckal AH, Latif AN, Shaik RM, Abdul-Rahim HF, Nasrallah GK, Al-Kuwari MG, Butt AA, Al-Romaihi HE, Al-Thani MH, Al-Khal A, Bertollini R, Abdel-Rahman ME, Abu-Raddad LJ. Effectiveness of two and three doses of COVID-19 mRNA vaccines against infection, symptoms, and severity in the pre-omicron era: A time-dependent gradient. Vaccine 2024; 42:3307-3320. [PMID: 38616439 DOI: 10.1016/j.vaccine.2024.04.026] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/29/2024] [Revised: 04/01/2024] [Accepted: 04/04/2024] [Indexed: 04/16/2024]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Vaccines were developed and deployed to combat severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection. This study aimed to characterize patterns in the protection provided by the BNT162b2 and mRNA-1273 mRNA vaccines against a spectrum of SARS-CoV-2 infection symptoms and severities. METHODS A national, matched, test-negative, case-control study was conducted in Qatar between January 1 and December 18, 2021, utilizing a sample of 238,896 PCR-positive tests and 6,533,739 PCR-negative tests. Vaccine effectiveness was estimated against asymptomatic, symptomatic, severe coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), critical COVID-19, and fatal COVID-19 infections. Data sources included Qatar's national databases for COVID-19 laboratory testing, vaccination, hospitalization, and death. RESULTS Effectiveness of two-dose BNT162b2 vaccination was 75.6% (95% CI: 73.6-77.5) against asymptomatic infection and 76.5% (95% CI: 75.1-77.9) against symptomatic infection. Effectiveness against each of severe, critical, and fatal COVID-19 infections surpassed 90%. Immediately after the second dose, all categories-namely, asymptomatic, symptomatic, severe, critical, and fatal COVID-19-exhibited similarly high effectiveness. However, from 181 to 270 days post-second dose, effectiveness against asymptomatic and symptomatic infections declined to below 40%, while effectiveness against each of severe, critical, and fatal COVID-19 infections remained consistently high. However, estimates against fatal COVID-19 often had wide 95% confidence intervals. Analogous patterns were observed in three-dose BNT162b2 vaccination and two- and three-dose mRNA-1273 vaccination. Sensitivity analyses confirmed the results. CONCLUSION A gradient in vaccine effectiveness exists and is linked to the symptoms and severity of infection, providing higher protection against more symptomatic and severe cases. This gradient intensifies over time as vaccine immunity wanes after the last vaccine dose. These patterns appear consistent irrespective of the vaccine type or whether the vaccination involves the primary series or a booster.
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Affiliation(s)
- Layan Sukik
- Infectious Disease Epidemiology Group, Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar, Cornell University, Doha, Qatar; World Health Organization Collaborating Centre for Disease Epidemiology Analytics on HIV/AIDS, Sexually Transmitted Infections, and Viral Hepatitis, Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar, Cornell University, Qatar Foundation - Education City, Doha, Qatar; Department of Public Health, College of Health Sciences, QU Health, Qatar University, Doha, Qatar.
| | - Hiam Chemaitelly
- Infectious Disease Epidemiology Group, Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar, Cornell University, Doha, Qatar; World Health Organization Collaborating Centre for Disease Epidemiology Analytics on HIV/AIDS, Sexually Transmitted Infections, and Viral Hepatitis, Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar, Cornell University, Qatar Foundation - Education City, Doha, Qatar; Department of Population Health Sciences, Weill Cornell Medicine, Cornell University, New York, NY, USA
| | - Houssein H Ayoub
- Mathematics Program, Department of Mathematics and Statistics, College of Arts and Sciences, Qatar University, Doha, Qatar
| | - Peter Coyle
- Hamad Medical Corporation, Doha, Qatar; Biomedical Research Center, Member of QU Health, Qatar University, Doha, Qatar; Wellcome-Wolfson Institute for Experimental Medicine, Queens University, Belfast, United Kingdom
| | - Patrick Tang
- Department of Pathology, Sidra Medicine, Doha, Qatar
| | - Hadi M Yassine
- Biomedical Research Center, Member of QU Health, Qatar University, Doha, Qatar; Department of Biomedical Science, College of Health Sciences, QU Health, Qatar University, Doha, Qatar
| | - Asmaa A Al Thani
- Biomedical Research Center, Member of QU Health, Qatar University, Doha, Qatar; Department of Biomedical Science, College of Health Sciences, QU Health, Qatar University, Doha, Qatar
| | - Mohammad R Hasan
- Department of Pathology and Molecular Medicine, McMaster University, Hamilton, Canada
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | - Hanan F Abdul-Rahim
- Department of Public Health, College of Health Sciences, QU Health, Qatar University, Doha, Qatar
| | - Gheyath K Nasrallah
- Biomedical Research Center, Member of QU Health, Qatar University, Doha, Qatar; Department of Biomedical Science, College of Health Sciences, QU Health, Qatar University, Doha, Qatar
| | | | - Adeel A Butt
- Department of Population Health Sciences, Weill Cornell Medicine, Cornell University, New York, NY, USA; Hamad Medical Corporation, Doha, Qatar; Department of Medicine, Weill Cornell Medicine, Cornell University, New York, NY, USA
| | | | | | | | | | - Manar E Abdel-Rahman
- Department of Public Health, College of Health Sciences, QU Health, Qatar University, Doha, Qatar
| | - Laith J Abu-Raddad
- Infectious Disease Epidemiology Group, Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar, Cornell University, Doha, Qatar; World Health Organization Collaborating Centre for Disease Epidemiology Analytics on HIV/AIDS, Sexually Transmitted Infections, and Viral Hepatitis, Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar, Cornell University, Qatar Foundation - Education City, Doha, Qatar; Department of Public Health, College of Health Sciences, QU Health, Qatar University, Doha, Qatar; Department of Population Health Sciences, Weill Cornell Medicine, Cornell University, New York, NY, USA; College of Health and Life Sciences, Hamad bin Khalifa University, Doha, Qatar.
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Chemaitelly H, Ayoub HH, Tang P, Yassine HM, Al Thani AA, Hasan MR, Coyle P, Al-Kanaani Z, Al-Kuwari E, Jeremijenko A, Kaleeckal AH, Latif AN, Shaik RM, Abdul-Rahim HF, Nasrallah GK, Al-Kuwari MG, Butt AA, Al-Romaihi HE, Al-Thani MH, Al-Khal A, Bertollini R, Abu-Raddad LJ. Addressing bias in the definition of SARS-CoV-2 reinfection: implications for underestimation. Front Med (Lausanne) 2024; 11:1363045. [PMID: 38529118 PMCID: PMC10961414 DOI: 10.3389/fmed.2024.1363045] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/29/2023] [Accepted: 02/22/2024] [Indexed: 03/27/2024] Open
Abstract
Introduction Reinfections are increasingly becoming a feature in the epidemiology of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection. However, accurately defining reinfection poses methodological challenges. Conventionally, reinfection is defined as a positive test occurring at least 90 days after a previous infection diagnosis. Yet, this extended time window may lead to an underestimation of reinfection occurrences. This study investigated the prospect of adopting an alternative, shorter time window for defining reinfection. Methods A longitudinal study was conducted to assess the incidence of reinfections in the total population of Qatar, from February 28, 2020 to November 20, 2023. The assessment considered a range of time windows for defining reinfection, spanning from 1 day to 180 days. Subgroup analyses comparing first versus repeat reinfections and a sensitivity analysis, focusing exclusively on individuals who underwent frequent testing, were performed. Results The relationship between the number of reinfections in the population and the duration of the time window used to define reinfection revealed two distinct dynamical domains. Within the initial 15 days post-infection diagnosis, almost all positive tests for SARS-CoV-2 were attributed to the original infection. However, surpassing the 30-day post-infection threshold, nearly all positive tests were attributed to reinfections. A 40-day time window emerged as a sufficiently conservative definition for reinfection. By setting the time window at 40 days, the estimated number of reinfections in the population increased from 84,565 to 88,384, compared to the 90-day time window. The maximum observed reinfections were 6 and 4 for the 40-day and 90-day time windows, respectively. The 40-day time window was appropriate for defining reinfection, irrespective of whether it was the first, second, third, or fourth occurrence. The sensitivity analysis, confined to high testers exclusively, replicated similar patterns and results. Discussion A 40-day time window is optimal for defining reinfection, providing an informed alternative to the conventional 90-day time window. Reinfections are prevalent, with some individuals experiencing multiple instances since the onset of the pandemic.
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Affiliation(s)
- Hiam Chemaitelly
- Infectious Disease Epidemiology Group, Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar, Cornell University, Doha, Qatar
- World Health Organization Collaborating Centre for Disease Epidemiology Analytics on HIV/AIDS, Sexually Transmitted Infections, and Viral Hepatitis, Weill Cornell Medicine–Qatar, Cornell University, Doha, Qatar
- Department of Population Health Sciences, Weill Cornell Medicine, Cornell University, New York, NY, United States
| | - Houssein H. Ayoub
- Mathematics Program, Department of Mathematics, Statistics, and Physics, College of Arts and Sciences, Qatar University, Doha, Qatar
| | - Patrick Tang
- Department of Pathology, Sidra Medicine, Doha, Qatar
| | - Hadi M. Yassine
- Biomedical Research Center, QU Health, Qatar University, Doha, Qatar
- Department of Biomedical Science, College of Health Sciences, QU Health, Qatar University, Doha, Qatar
| | - Asmaa A. Al Thani
- Biomedical Research Center, QU Health, Qatar University, Doha, Qatar
- Department of Biomedical Science, College of Health Sciences, QU Health, Qatar University, Doha, Qatar
| | - Mohammad R. Hasan
- Department of Pathology and Molecular Medicine, McMaster University, Hamilton, ON, Canada
| | - Peter Coyle
- Biomedical Research Center, QU Health, Qatar University, Doha, Qatar
- Hamad Medical Corporation, Doha, Qatar
- Wellcome-Wolfson Institute for Experimental Medicine, Queens University, Belfast, United Kingdom
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | - Hanan F. Abdul-Rahim
- Department of Public Health, College of Health Sciences, QU Health, Qatar University, Doha, Qatar
| | - Gheyath K. Nasrallah
- Biomedical Research Center, QU Health, Qatar University, Doha, Qatar
- Department of Biomedical Science, College of Health Sciences, QU Health, Qatar University, Doha, Qatar
| | | | - Adeel A. Butt
- Department of Population Health Sciences, Weill Cornell Medicine, Cornell University, New York, NY, United States
- Hamad Medical Corporation, Doha, Qatar
- Department of Medicine, Weill Cornell Medicine, Cornell University, New York, NY, United States
| | | | | | | | | | - Laith J. Abu-Raddad
- Infectious Disease Epidemiology Group, Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar, Cornell University, Doha, Qatar
- World Health Organization Collaborating Centre for Disease Epidemiology Analytics on HIV/AIDS, Sexually Transmitted Infections, and Viral Hepatitis, Weill Cornell Medicine–Qatar, Cornell University, Doha, Qatar
- Department of Population Health Sciences, Weill Cornell Medicine, Cornell University, New York, NY, United States
- Department of Public Health, College of Health Sciences, QU Health, Qatar University, Doha, Qatar
- College of Health and Life Sciences, Hamad bin Khalifa University, Doha, Qatar
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Chemaitelly H, Faust JS, Krumholz HM, Ayoub HH, Tang P, Coyle P, Yassine HM, Al Thani AA, Al-Khatib HA, Hasan MR, Al-Kanaani Z, Al-Kuwari E, Jeremijenko A, Kaleeckal AH, Latif AN, Shaik RM, Abdul-Rahim HF, Nasrallah GK, Al-Kuwari MG, Butt AA, Al-Romaihi HE, Al-Thani MH, Al-Khal A, Bertollini R, Abu-Raddad LJ. Short- and longer-term all-cause mortality among SARS-CoV-2- infected individuals and the pull-forward phenomenon in Qatar: a national cohort study. Int J Infect Dis 2023; 136:81-90. [PMID: 37717648 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijid.2023.09.005] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/21/2023] [Revised: 09/06/2023] [Accepted: 09/11/2023] [Indexed: 09/19/2023] Open
Abstract
OBJECTIVES We assessed short-, medium-, and long-term all-cause mortality risks after a primary SARS-CoV-2 infection. METHODS A national, matched, retrospective cohort study was conducted in Qatar to assess risk of all-cause mortality in the national SARS-CoV-2 primary infection cohort compared with the national infection-naïve cohort. Associations were estimated using Cox proportional-hazards regression models. Analyses were stratified by vaccination status and clinical vulnerability status. RESULTS Among unvaccinated persons, within 90 days after primary infection, the adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) comparing mortality incidence in the primary-infection cohort with the infection-naïve cohort was 1.19 (95% confidence interval 1.02-1.39). aHR was 1.34 (1.11-1.63) in persons more clinically vulnerable to severe COVID-19 and 0.94 (0.72-1.24) in those less clinically vulnerable. Beyond 90 days after primary infection, aHR was 0.50 (0.37-0.68); aHR was 0.41 (0.28-0.58) at 3-7 months and 0.76 (0.46-1.26) at ≥8 months. The aHR was 0.37 (0.25-0.54) in more clinically vulnerable persons and 0.77 (0.48-1.24) in less clinically vulnerable persons. Among vaccinated persons, mortality incidence was comparable in the primary-infection versus infection-naïve cohorts, regardless of clinical vulnerability status. CONCLUSIONS COVID-19 mortality was primarily driven by an accelerated onset of death among individuals who were already vulnerable to all-cause mortality, but vaccination prevented these accelerated deaths.
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Affiliation(s)
- Hiam Chemaitelly
- Infectious Disease Epidemiology Group, Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar, Cornell University, Doha, Qatar; World Health Organization Collaborating Centre for Disease Epidemiology Analytics on HIV/AIDS, Sexually Transmitted Infections, and Viral Hepatitis, Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar, Cornell University, Qatar Foundation - Education City, Doha, Qatar; Department of Population Health Sciences, Weill Cornell Medicine, Cornell University, New York, New York, USA
| | - Jeremy Samuel Faust
- Department of Emergency Medicine, Brigham and Women's Hospital, Boston, Massachusetts, USA
| | - Harlan M Krumholz
- Center for Outcomes Research and Evaluation, Yale University School of Medicine, New Haven, Connecticut
| | - Houssein H Ayoub
- Mathematics Program, Department of Mathematics, Statistics, and Physics, College of Arts and Sciences, Qatar University, Doha, Qatar
| | - Patrick Tang
- Department of Pathology, Sidra Medicine, Doha, Qatar
| | - Peter Coyle
- Hamad Medical Corporation, Doha, Qatar; Biomedical Research Center, QU Health, Qatar University, Doha, Qatar; Wellcome-Wolfson Institute for Experimental Medicine, Queens University, Belfast, UK
| | - Hadi M Yassine
- Biomedical Research Center, QU Health, Qatar University, Doha, Qatar; Department of Biomedical Science, College of Health Sciences, QU Health, Qatar University, Doha, Qatar
| | - Asmaa A Al Thani
- Biomedical Research Center, QU Health, Qatar University, Doha, Qatar; Department of Biomedical Science, College of Health Sciences, QU Health, Qatar University, Doha, Qatar
| | - Hebah A Al-Khatib
- Biomedical Research Center, QU Health, Qatar University, Doha, Qatar; Department of Biomedical Science, College of Health Sciences, QU Health, Qatar University, Doha, Qatar
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | - Hanan F Abdul-Rahim
- Department of Public Health, College of Health Sciences, QU Health, Qatar University, Doha, Qatar
| | - Gheyath K Nasrallah
- Biomedical Research Center, QU Health, Qatar University, Doha, Qatar; Department of Biomedical Science, College of Health Sciences, QU Health, Qatar University, Doha, Qatar
| | | | - Adeel A Butt
- Department of Emergency Medicine, Brigham and Women's Hospital, Boston, Massachusetts, USA; Hamad Medical Corporation, Doha, Qatar; Department of Medicine, Weill Cornell Medicine, Cornell University, New York, New York, USA
| | | | | | | | | | - Laith J Abu-Raddad
- Infectious Disease Epidemiology Group, Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar, Cornell University, Doha, Qatar; World Health Organization Collaborating Centre for Disease Epidemiology Analytics on HIV/AIDS, Sexually Transmitted Infections, and Viral Hepatitis, Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar, Cornell University, Qatar Foundation - Education City, Doha, Qatar; Department of Population Health Sciences, Weill Cornell Medicine, Cornell University, New York, New York, USA; Department of Public Health, College of Health Sciences, QU Health, Qatar University, Doha, Qatar; College of Health and Life Sciences, Hamad bin Khalifa University, Doha, Qatar.
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5
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Mahmoud MA, Ayoub HH, Coyle P, Tang P, Hasan MR, Yassine HM, Al Thani AA, Al‐Kanaani Z, Al‐Kuwari E, Jeremijenko A, Kaleeckal AH, Latif AN, Shaik RM, Abdul‐Rahim HF, Nasrallah GK, Al‐Kuwari MG, Butt AA, Al‐Romaihi HE, Al‐Thani MH, Al‐Khal A, Bertollini R, Abu‐Raddad LJ, Chemaitelly H. SARS-CoV-2 infection and effects of age, sex, comorbidity, and vaccination among older individuals: A national cohort study. Influenza Other Respir Viruses 2023; 17:e13224. [PMID: 38019700 PMCID: PMC10663173 DOI: 10.1111/irv.13224] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/06/2023] [Revised: 10/25/2023] [Accepted: 10/27/2023] [Indexed: 12/01/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND We investigated the contribution of age, coexisting medical conditions, sex, and vaccination to incidence of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection and of severe, critical, or fatal COVID-19 in older adults since pandemic onset. METHODS A national retrospective cohort study was conducted in the population of Qatar aged ≥50 years between February 5, 2020 and June 15, 2023. Adjusted hazard ratios (AHRs) for infection and for severe coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outcomes were estimated through Cox regression models. RESULTS Cumulative incidence was 25.01% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 24.86-25.15%) for infection and 1.59% (95% CI: 1.55-1.64%) for severe, critical, or fatal COVID-19 after a follow-up duration of 40.9 months. Risk of infection varied minimally by age and sex but increased significantly with coexisting conditions. Risk of infection was reduced with primary-series vaccination (AHR: 0.91, 95% CI: 0.90-0.93) and further with first booster vaccination (AHR: 0.75, 95% CI: 0.74-0.77). Risk of severe, critical, or fatal COVID-19 increased exponentially with age and linearly with coexisting conditions. AHRs for severe, critical, or fatal COVID-19 were 0.86 (95% CI: 0.7-0.97) for one dose, 0.15 (95% CI: 0.13-0.17) for primary-series vaccination, and 0.11 (95% CI: 0.08-0.14) for first booster vaccination. Sensitivity analysis restricted to only Qataris yielded similar results. CONCLUSION Incidence of severe COVID-19 in older adults followed a dynamic pattern shaped by infection incidence, variant severity, and population immunity. Age, sex, and coexisting conditions were strong determinants of infection severity. Vaccine protection against severe outcomes showed a dose-response relationship, highlighting the importance of booster vaccination for older adults.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Houssein H. Ayoub
- Mathematics ProgramDepartment of Mathematics, Statistics, and PhysicsCollege of Arts and SciencesQatar UniversityDohaQatar
| | - Peter Coyle
- Hamad Medical CorporationDohaQatar
- Biomedical Research CenterQU HealthQatar UniversityDohaQatar
- Wellcome‐Wolfson Institute for Experimental MedicineQueens UniversityBelfastUK
| | | | - Mohammad R. Hasan
- Department of Pathology and Molecular MedicineMcMaster UniversityHamiltonCanada
| | - Hadi M. Yassine
- Department of Biomedical ScienceCollege of Health SciencesQU HealthQatar UniversityDohaQatar
- Department of Public HealthCollege of Health SciencesQU HealthQatar UniversityDohaQatar
| | - Asmaa A. Al Thani
- Department of Biomedical ScienceCollege of Health SciencesQU HealthQatar UniversityDohaQatar
- Department of Public HealthCollege of Health SciencesQU HealthQatar UniversityDohaQatar
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | - Hanan F. Abdul‐Rahim
- Department of Public HealthCollege of Health SciencesQU HealthQatar UniversityDohaQatar
| | - Gheyath K. Nasrallah
- Department of Biomedical ScienceCollege of Health SciencesQU HealthQatar UniversityDohaQatar
- Department of Public HealthCollege of Health SciencesQU HealthQatar UniversityDohaQatar
| | | | - Adeel A. Butt
- Hamad Medical CorporationDohaQatar
- Department of MedicineWeill Cornell MedicineCornell UniversityNew YorkNew YorkUSA
- Department of Population Health SciencesWeill Cornell MedicineCornell UniversityNew YorkNew YorkUSA
| | | | | | | | | | - Laith J. Abu‐Raddad
- Department of Public HealthCollege of Health SciencesQU HealthQatar UniversityDohaQatar
- Department of Population Health SciencesWeill Cornell MedicineCornell UniversityNew YorkNew YorkUSA
- Infectious Disease Epidemiology GroupWeill Cornell Medicine‐QatarCornell UniversityDohaQatar
- World Health Organization Collaborating Centre for Disease Epidemiology Analytics on HIV/AIDSSexually Transmitted Infections, and Viral HepatitisWeill Cornell Medicine–QatarCornell University, Qatar Foundation – Education CityDohaQatar
- College of Health and Life SciencesHamad bin Khalifa UniversityDohaQatar
| | - Hiam Chemaitelly
- Department of Population Health SciencesWeill Cornell MedicineCornell UniversityNew YorkNew YorkUSA
- Infectious Disease Epidemiology GroupWeill Cornell Medicine‐QatarCornell UniversityDohaQatar
- World Health Organization Collaborating Centre for Disease Epidemiology Analytics on HIV/AIDSSexually Transmitted Infections, and Viral HepatitisWeill Cornell Medicine–QatarCornell University, Qatar Foundation – Education CityDohaQatar
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Murphy C, Lim WW, Mills C, Wong JY, Chen D, Xie Y, Li M, Gould S, Xin H, Cheung JK, Bhatt S, Cowling BJ, Donnelly CA. Effectiveness of social distancing measures and lockdowns for reducing transmission of COVID-19 in non-healthcare, community-based settings. PHILOSOPHICAL TRANSACTIONS. SERIES A, MATHEMATICAL, PHYSICAL, AND ENGINEERING SCIENCES 2023; 381:20230132. [PMID: 37611629 PMCID: PMC10446910 DOI: 10.1098/rsta.2023.0132] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/08/2023] [Accepted: 05/23/2023] [Indexed: 08/25/2023]
Abstract
Social distancing measures (SDMs) are community-level interventions that aim to reduce person-to-person contacts in the community. SDMs were a major part of the responses first to contain, then to mitigate, the spread of SARS-CoV-2 in the community. Common SDMs included limiting the size of gatherings, closing schools and/or workplaces, implementing work-from-home arrangements, or more stringent restrictions such as lockdowns. This systematic review summarized the evidence for the effectiveness of nine SDMs. Almost all of the studies included were observational in nature, which meant that there were intrinsic risks of bias that could have been avoided were conditions randomly assigned to study participants. There were no instances where only one form of SDM had been in place in a particular setting during the study period, making it challenging to estimate the separate effect of each intervention. The more stringent SDMs such as stay-at-home orders, restrictions on mass gatherings and closures were estimated to be most effective at reducing SARS-CoV-2 transmission. Most studies included in this review suggested that combinations of SDMs successfully slowed or even stopped SARS-CoV-2 transmission in the community. However, individual effects and optimal combinations of interventions, as well as the optimal timing for particular measures, require further investigation. This article is part of the theme issue 'The effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions on the COVID-19 pandemic: the evidence'.
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Affiliation(s)
- Caitriona Murphy
- World Health Organization Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Control, School of Public Health, Li Ka Shing Faculty of Medicine, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, People's Republic of China
| | - Wey Wen Lim
- World Health Organization Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Control, School of Public Health, Li Ka Shing Faculty of Medicine, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, People's Republic of China
| | - Cathal Mills
- Department of Statistics, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - Jessica Y. Wong
- World Health Organization Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Control, School of Public Health, Li Ka Shing Faculty of Medicine, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, People's Republic of China
| | - Dongxuan Chen
- World Health Organization Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Control, School of Public Health, Li Ka Shing Faculty of Medicine, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, People's Republic of China
- Laboratory of Data Discovery for Health, Hong Kong Science and Technology Park, New Territories, Hong Kong, People's Republic of China
| | - Yanmy Xie
- World Health Organization Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Control, School of Public Health, Li Ka Shing Faculty of Medicine, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, People's Republic of China
| | - Mingwei Li
- World Health Organization Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Control, School of Public Health, Li Ka Shing Faculty of Medicine, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, People's Republic of China
- Laboratory of Data Discovery for Health, Hong Kong Science and Technology Park, New Territories, Hong Kong, People's Republic of China
| | - Susan Gould
- Department of Clinical Sciences, Liverpool School of Tropical Medicine, Liverpool, UK
- Tropical and Infectious Disease Unit, Liverpool University Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust, Liverpool, UK
| | - Hualei Xin
- World Health Organization Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Control, School of Public Health, Li Ka Shing Faculty of Medicine, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, People's Republic of China
| | - Justin K. Cheung
- World Health Organization Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Control, School of Public Health, Li Ka Shing Faculty of Medicine, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, People's Republic of China
| | - Samir Bhatt
- Section of Epidemiology, Department of Public Health, University of Copenhagen, Kobenhavn, Denmark
- MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Faculty of Medicine, Imperial College London, London, UK
| | - Benjamin J. Cowling
- World Health Organization Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Control, School of Public Health, Li Ka Shing Faculty of Medicine, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, People's Republic of China
- Laboratory of Data Discovery for Health, Hong Kong Science and Technology Park, New Territories, Hong Kong, People's Republic of China
| | - Christl A. Donnelly
- Department of Statistics, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
- MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Faculty of Medicine, Imperial College London, London, UK
- Pandemic Sciences Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
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7
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Chemaitelly H, Ayoub HH, Tang P, Coyle PV, Yassine HM, Al Thani AA, Al-Khatib HA, Hasan MR, Al-Kanaani Z, Al-Kuwari E, Jeremijenko A, Kaleeckal AH, Latif AN, Shaik RM, Abdul-Rahim HF, Nasrallah GK, Al-Kuwari MG, Butt AA, Al-Romaihi HE, Al-Thani MH, Al-Khal A, Bertollini R, Abu-Raddad LJ. History of primary-series and booster vaccination and protection against Omicron reinfection. SCIENCE ADVANCES 2023; 9:eadh0761. [PMID: 37792951 PMCID: PMC10550237 DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.adh0761] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/08/2023] [Accepted: 07/26/2023] [Indexed: 10/06/2023]
Abstract
Laboratory evidence suggests a possibility of immune imprinting for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection. We investigated the differences in the incidence of SARS-CoV-2 reinfection in a cohort of persons who had a primary Omicron infection, but different vaccination histories using matched, national, retrospective, cohort studies. Adjusted hazard ratio for reinfection incidence, factoring adjustment for differences in testing rate, was 0.43 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.39 to 0.49] comparing history of two-dose vaccination to no vaccination, 1.47 (95% CI: 1.23 to 1.76) comparing history of three-dose vaccination to two-dose vaccination, and 0.57 (95% CI: 0.48 to 0.68) comparing history of three-dose vaccination to no vaccination. Divergence in cumulative incidence curves increased markedly when the incidence was dominated by BA.4/BA.5 and BA.2.75* Omicron subvariants. The history of primary-series vaccination enhanced immune protection against Omicron reinfection, but history of booster vaccination compromised protection against Omicron reinfection. These findings do not undermine the public health utility of booster vaccination.
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Affiliation(s)
- Hiam Chemaitelly
- Infectious Disease Epidemiology Group, Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar, Cornell University, Doha, Qatar
- World Health Organization Collaborating Centre for Disease Epidemiology Analytics on HIV/AIDS, Sexually Transmitted Infections, and Viral Hepatitis, Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar, Cornell University, Qatar Foundation – Education City, Doha, Qatar
- Department of Population Health Sciences, Weill Cornell Medicine, Cornell University, New York, NY, USA
| | - Houssein H. Ayoub
- Mathematics Program, Department of Mathematics, Statistics, and Physics, College of Arts and Sciences, Qatar University, Doha, Qatar
| | - Patrick Tang
- Department of Pathology, Sidra Medicine, Doha, Qatar
| | - Peter V. Coyle
- Hamad Medical Corporation, Doha, Qatar
- Biomedical Research Center, QU Health, Qatar University, Doha, Qatar
- Wellcome-Wolfson Institute for Experimental Medicine, Queens University, Belfast, UK
| | - Hadi M. Yassine
- Biomedical Research Center, QU Health, Qatar University, Doha, Qatar
- Department of Biomedical Science, College of Health Sciences, QU Health, Qatar University, Doha, Qatar
| | - Asmaa A. Al Thani
- Biomedical Research Center, QU Health, Qatar University, Doha, Qatar
- Department of Biomedical Science, College of Health Sciences, QU Health, Qatar University, Doha, Qatar
| | - Hebah A. Al-Khatib
- Biomedical Research Center, QU Health, Qatar University, Doha, Qatar
- Department of Biomedical Science, College of Health Sciences, QU Health, Qatar University, Doha, Qatar
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | - Hanan F. Abdul-Rahim
- Department of Public Health, College of Health Sciences, QU Health, Qatar University, Doha, Qatar
| | - Gheyath K. Nasrallah
- Biomedical Research Center, QU Health, Qatar University, Doha, Qatar
- Department of Biomedical Science, College of Health Sciences, QU Health, Qatar University, Doha, Qatar
| | | | - Adeel A. Butt
- Department of Population Health Sciences, Weill Cornell Medicine, Cornell University, New York, NY, USA
- Hamad Medical Corporation, Doha, Qatar
- Department of Medicine, Weill Cornell Medicine, Cornell University, New York, NY, USA
| | | | | | | | | | - Laith J. Abu-Raddad
- Infectious Disease Epidemiology Group, Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar, Cornell University, Doha, Qatar
- World Health Organization Collaborating Centre for Disease Epidemiology Analytics on HIV/AIDS, Sexually Transmitted Infections, and Viral Hepatitis, Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar, Cornell University, Qatar Foundation – Education City, Doha, Qatar
- Department of Population Health Sciences, Weill Cornell Medicine, Cornell University, New York, NY, USA
- Department of Public Health, College of Health Sciences, QU Health, Qatar University, Doha, Qatar
- College of Health and Life Sciences, Hamad bin Khalifa University, Doha, Qatar
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8
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AlNuaimi AA, Chemaitelly H, Semaan S, AlMukdad S, Al-Kanaani Z, Kaleeckal AH, Latif AN, Al-Romaihi HE, Butt AA, Al-Thani MH, Bertollini R, AbdulMalik M, Al-Khal A, Abu-Raddad LJ. All-cause and COVID-19 mortality in Qatar during the COVID-19 pandemic. BMJ Glob Health 2023; 8:bmjgh-2023-012291. [PMID: 37142299 PMCID: PMC10163334 DOI: 10.1136/bmjgh-2023-012291] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/14/2023] [Accepted: 04/21/2023] [Indexed: 05/06/2023] Open
Abstract
OBJECTIVE To investigate all-cause mortality, COVID-19 mortality and all-cause non-COVID-19 mortality in Qatar during the COVID-19 pandemic. METHODS A national, retrospective cohort analysis and national, matched, retrospective cohort studies were conducted between 5 February 2020 and 19 September 2022. RESULTS There were 5025 deaths during a follow-up time of 5 247 220 person-years, of which 675 were COVID-19 related. Incidence rates were 0.96 (95% CI 0.93 to 0.98) per 1000 person-years for all-cause mortality, 0.13 (95% CI 0.12 to 0.14) per 1000 person-years for COVID-19 mortality and 0.83 (95% CI 0.80 to 0.85) per 1000 person-years for all-cause non-COVID-19 mortality. Adjusted HR, comparing all-cause non-COVID-19 mortality relative to Qataris, was lowest for Indians at 0.38 (95% CI 0.32 to 0.44), highest for Filipinos at 0.56 (95% CI 0.45 to 0.69) and was 0.51 (95% CI 0.45 to 0.58) for craft and manual workers (CMWs). Adjusted HR, comparing COVID-19 mortality relative to Qataris, was lowest for Indians at 1.54 (95% CI 0.97 to 2.44), highest for Nepalese at 5.34 (95% CI 1.56 to 18.34) and was 1.86 (95% CI 1.32 to 2.60) for CMWs. Incidence rate of all-cause mortality for each nationality group was lower than the crude death rate in the country of origin. CONCLUSIONS Risk of non-COVID-19 death was low and was lowest among CMWs, perhaps reflecting the healthy worker effect. Risk of COVID-19 death was also low, but was highest among CMWs, largely reflecting higher exposure during first epidemic wave, before advent of effective COVID-19 treatments and vaccines.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Hiam Chemaitelly
- Infectious Disease Epidemiology Group, Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar, Cornell University, Qatar Foundation - Education City, Doha, Qatar
- World Health Organization Collaborating Centre for Disease Epidemiology Analytics on HIV/AIDS, Sexually Transmitted Infections, and Viral Hepatitis, Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar, Cornell University,Qatar Foundation - Education City, Doha, Qatar
- Department of Population Health Sciences, Weill Cornell Medicine, Cornell University, New York, New York, USA
| | - Sandy Semaan
- Primary Health Care Corporation, Doha, Ad Dawhah, Qatar
| | - Sawsan AlMukdad
- Infectious Disease Epidemiology Group, Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar, Cornell University, Qatar Foundation - Education City, Doha, Qatar
- World Health Organization Collaborating Centre for Disease Epidemiology Analytics on HIV/AIDS, Sexually Transmitted Infections, and Viral Hepatitis, Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar, Cornell University,Qatar Foundation - Education City, Doha, Qatar
| | | | | | | | | | - Adeel A Butt
- Department of Population Health Sciences, Weill Cornell Medicine, Cornell University, New York, New York, USA
- Hamad Medical Corporation, Doha, Qatar
- Department of Medicine, Weill Cornell Medicine, Cornell University, New York, New York, USA
| | | | | | | | | | - Laith J Abu-Raddad
- Infectious Disease Epidemiology Group, Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar, Cornell University, Qatar Foundation - Education City, Doha, Qatar
- World Health Organization Collaborating Centre for Disease Epidemiology Analytics on HIV/AIDS, Sexually Transmitted Infections, and Viral Hepatitis, Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar, Cornell University,Qatar Foundation - Education City, Doha, Qatar
- Department of Population Health Sciences, Weill Cornell Medicine, Cornell University, New York, New York, USA
- Department of Public Health, College of Health Sciences, QU Health, Qatar University, Doha, Qatar
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9
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Hu H, Xiong S, Zhang X, Liu S, Gu L, Zhu Y, Xiang D, Skitmore M. The COVID-19 pandemic in various restriction policy scenarios based on the dynamic social contact rate. Heliyon 2023; 9:e14533. [PMID: 36945346 PMCID: PMC10017169 DOI: 10.1016/j.heliyon.2023.e14533] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/24/2022] [Revised: 03/06/2023] [Accepted: 03/09/2023] [Indexed: 03/17/2023] Open
Abstract
The social contact rate has influenced the transmission of COVID-19, with more social contact resulting in more contagion cases. We chose 18 countries with the most confirmed cases in the first 200 days after the Wuhan lockdown. This was the first study using the dynamic social contact rate to simulate the epidemic under diverse restriction policies over 500 days since the COVID-19 outbreak. The developed General Dynamic Model suggested that the probability of contagion ranged from 12.52% to 39.39% in the epidemic. The geometric mean of the social contact rates differed from 18.21% to 96.00% between countries. The restriction policies in developed economies were 3.5 times more efficient than in developing economies. We compare the effectiveness of different policies for disease prevention and discuss the influence of policy adjustment frequency for each country. Maintaining the tightest restriction or alternate tightening and loosening restrictions was recommended, with each having an average 72.45% and 79.78% reduction in maximum active cases, respectively.
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Affiliation(s)
- Hui Hu
- Economic Development Research Centre, Wuhan University, Hubei, China
- Health Economics and Management Centre, Wuhan University, Hubei, China
- School of Economics & Management, Wuhan University, Hubei, China
| | - Shuaizhou Xiong
- School of Economics & Management, Wuhan University, Hubei, China
| | - Xiaoling Zhang
- Department of Public and International Affairs, City University of Hong Kong, Kowloon, Hong Kong
- School of Energy and Environment, City University of Hong Kong, Kowloon, Hong Kong
- Shenzhen Research Institute, City University of Hong Kong, Shenzhen, China
| | - Shuzhou Liu
- School of Mathematics and Physics, China University of Geosciences, Hubei, China
| | - Lin Gu
- RIKEN Center for Advanced Intelligence Project (AIP), Tokyo, Japan
- Research Center for Advanced Science and Technology, University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan
| | - Yuqi Zhu
- School of Economics & Management, Wuhan University, Hubei, China
| | - Dongjin Xiang
- School of Mathematics and Physics, China University of Geosciences, Hubei, China
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10
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Tayar E, Abdeen S, Abed Alah M, Chemaitelly H, Bougmiza I, Ayoub HH, Kaleeckal AH, Latif AN, Shaik RM, Al-Romaihi HE, Al-Thani MH, Bertollini R, Abu-Raddad LJ, Al-Khal A. Effectiveness of influenza vaccination against SARS-CoV-2 infection among healthcare workers in Qatar. J Infect Public Health 2023; 16:250-256. [PMID: 36603377 PMCID: PMC9791790 DOI: 10.1016/j.jiph.2022.12.016] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/18/2022] [Revised: 12/17/2022] [Accepted: 12/22/2022] [Indexed: 12/27/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Some studies have reported that influenza vaccination is associated with lower risk of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection and/or coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) morbidity and mortality. This study aims to estimate effectiveness of influenza vaccination, using Abbott's quadrivalent Influvac Tetra vaccine, against SARS-CoV-2 infection and against severe COVID-19. METHODS This matched, test-negative, case-control study was implemented on a population of 30,774 healthcare workers (HCWs) in Qatar during the 2020 annual influenza vaccination campaign, September 17, 2020-December 31, 2020, before introduction of COVID-19 vaccination. RESULTS Of 30,774 HCWs, 576 with PCR-positive tests and 10,033 with exclusively PCR-negative tests were eligible for inclusion in the study. Matching by sex, age, nationality, reason for PCR testing, and PCR test date yielded 518 cases matched to 2058 controls. Median duration between influenza vaccination and the PCR test was 43 days (IQR, 29-62). Estimated effectiveness of influenza vaccination against SARS-CoV-2 infection> 14 days after receiving the vaccine was 29.7% (95% CI: 5.5-47.7%). Estimated effectiveness of influenza vaccination against severe, critical, or fatal COVID-19 was 88.9% (95% CI: 4.1-98.7%). Sensitivity analyses confirmed the main analysis results. CONCLUSIONS Recent influenza vaccination is associated with a significant reduction in the risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection and COVID-19 severity.
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Affiliation(s)
- Elias Tayar
- Community Medicine Department, Hamad Medical Corporation, Doha, Qatar
| | - Sami Abdeen
- Community Medicine Department, Hamad Medical Corporation, Doha, Qatar
| | - Muna Abed Alah
- Community Medicine Department, Hamad Medical Corporation, Doha, Qatar
| | - Hiam Chemaitelly
- Infectious Disease Epidemiology Group, Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar, Cornell University, Doha, Qatar,World Health Organization Collaborating Centre for Disease Epidemiology Analytics on HIV/AIDS, Sexually Transmitted Infections, and Viral Hepatitis, Weill Cornell Medicine–Qatar, Cornell University, Doha, Qatar,Department of Population Health Sciences, Weill Cornell Medicine, Cornell University, New York, NY, USA
| | - Iheb Bougmiza
- Community Medicine Department, Primary Health Care Corporation, Doha, Qatar,Community Medicine Department, College of Medicine, Sousse University, Tunisia
| | - Houssein H. Ayoub
- Mathematics Program, Department of Mathematics, Statistics, and Physics, College of Arts and Sciences, Qatar University, Doha, Qatar
| | - Anvar Hassan Kaleeckal
- Business Intelligence and Operational Performance Unit, Hamad Medical Corporation, Doha, Qatar
| | - Ali Nizar Latif
- Business Intelligence and Operational Performance Unit, Hamad Medical Corporation, Doha, Qatar
| | | | | | | | | | - Laith J. Abu-Raddad
- Infectious Disease Epidemiology Group, Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar, Cornell University, Doha, Qatar,World Health Organization Collaborating Centre for Disease Epidemiology Analytics on HIV/AIDS, Sexually Transmitted Infections, and Viral Hepatitis, Weill Cornell Medicine–Qatar, Cornell University, Doha, Qatar,Department of Population Health Sciences, Weill Cornell Medicine, Cornell University, New York, NY, USA,Department of Public Health, College of Health Sciences, QU Health, Qatar University, Doha, Qatar,Corresponding author at: Infectious Disease Epidemiology Group, Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar, Cornell University, Doha, Qatar
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11
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Chemaitelly H, Nagelkerke N, Ayoub HH, Coyle P, Tang P, Yassine HM, Al-Khatib HA, Smatti MK, Hasan MR, Al-Kanaani Z, Al-Kuwari E, Jeremijenko A, Kaleeckal AH, Latif AN, Shaik RM, Abdul-Rahim HF, Nasrallah GK, Al-Kuwari MG, Butt AA, Al-Romaihi HE, Al-Thani MH, Al-Khal A, Bertollini R, Abu-Raddad LJ. Duration of immune protection of SARS-CoV-2 natural infection against reinfection. J Travel Med 2022; 29:6731972. [PMID: 36179099 PMCID: PMC9619565 DOI: 10.1093/jtm/taac109] [Citation(s) in RCA: 35] [Impact Index Per Article: 17.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/04/2022] [Revised: 09/14/2022] [Accepted: 09/17/2022] [Indexed: 12/29/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND The future of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic hinges on virus evolution and duration of immune protection of natural infection against reinfection. We investigated the duration of protection afforded by natural infection, the effect of viral immune evasion on duration of protection and protection against severe reinfection, in Qatar, between 28 February 2020 and 5 June 2022. METHODS Three national, matched, retrospective cohort studies were conducted to compare the incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection and coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) severity among unvaccinated persons with a documented SARS-CoV-2 primary infection, to incidence among those infection-naïve and unvaccinated. Associations were estimated using Cox proportional hazard regression models. RESULTS Effectiveness of pre-Omicron primary infection against pre-Omicron reinfection was 85.5% [95% confidence interval (CI): 84.8-86.2%]. Effectiveness peaked at 90.5% (95% CI: 88.4-92.3%) in the 7th month after the primary infection, but waned to ~ 70% by the 16th month. Extrapolating this waning trend using a Gompertz curve suggested an effectiveness of 50% in the 22nd month and < 10% by the 32nd month. Effectiveness of pre-Omicron primary infection against Omicron reinfection was 38.1% (95% CI: 36.3-39.8%) and declined with time since primary infection. A Gompertz curve suggested an effectiveness of < 10% by the 15th month. Effectiveness of primary infection against severe, critical or fatal COVID-19 reinfection was 97.3% (95% CI: 94.9-98.6%), irrespective of the variant of primary infection or reinfection, and with no evidence for waning. Similar results were found in sub-group analyses for those ≥50 years of age. CONCLUSIONS Protection of natural infection against reinfection wanes and may diminish within a few years. Viral immune evasion accelerates this waning. Protection against severe reinfection remains very strong, with no evidence for waning, irrespective of variant, for over 14 months after primary infection.
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Affiliation(s)
- Hiam Chemaitelly
- Infectious Disease Epidemiology Group, Research Department, Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar, Cornell University, Doha, Qatar.,World Health Organization Collaborating Centre for Disease Epidemiology Analytics on HIV/AIDS, Sexually Transmitted Infections, and Viral Hepatitis, Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar, Cornell University, Qatar Foundation - Education City, Doha, Qatar.,Department of Population Health Sciences, Weill Cornell Medicine, Cornell University, New York, NY, USA
| | - Nico Nagelkerke
- Infectious Disease Epidemiology Group, Research Department, Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar, Cornell University, Doha, Qatar
| | - Houssein H Ayoub
- Mathematics Program, Department of Mathematics, Statistics, and Physics, College of Arts and Sciences, Qatar University, Doha, Qatar
| | - Peter Coyle
- Hamad Medical Corporation, Doha, Qatar.,Biomedical Research Center, QU Health, Qatar University, Doha, Qatar.,Wellcome-Wolfson Institute for Experimental Medicine, Queens University, Belfast, UK
| | - Patrick Tang
- Department of Pathology, Sidra Medicine, Doha, Qatar
| | - Hadi M Yassine
- Biomedical Research Center, QU Health, Qatar University, Doha, Qatar.,Department of Biomedical Science, College of Health Sciences, QU Health, Qatar University, Doha, Qatar
| | - Hebah A Al-Khatib
- Biomedical Research Center, QU Health, Qatar University, Doha, Qatar.,Department of Biomedical Science, College of Health Sciences, QU Health, Qatar University, Doha, Qatar
| | - Maria K Smatti
- Biomedical Research Center, QU Health, Qatar University, Doha, Qatar.,Department of Biomedical Science, College of Health Sciences, QU Health, Qatar University, Doha, Qatar
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | - Hanan F Abdul-Rahim
- Department of Public Health, College of Health Sciences, QU Health, Qatar University, Doha, Qatar
| | - Gheyath K Nasrallah
- Biomedical Research Center, QU Health, Qatar University, Doha, Qatar.,Department of Biomedical Science, College of Health Sciences, QU Health, Qatar University, Doha, Qatar
| | | | - Adeel A Butt
- Department of Population Health Sciences, Weill Cornell Medicine, Cornell University, New York, NY, USA.,Hamad Medical Corporation, Doha, Qatar.,Department of Medicine, Weill Cornell Medicine, Cornell University,New York, NY, USA
| | | | | | | | | | - Laith J Abu-Raddad
- Infectious Disease Epidemiology Group, Research Department, Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar, Cornell University, Doha, Qatar.,World Health Organization Collaborating Centre for Disease Epidemiology Analytics on HIV/AIDS, Sexually Transmitted Infections, and Viral Hepatitis, Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar, Cornell University, Qatar Foundation - Education City, Doha, Qatar.,Department of Population Health Sciences, Weill Cornell Medicine, Cornell University, New York, NY, USA.,Department of Public Health, College of Health Sciences, QU Health, Qatar University, Doha, Qatar
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12
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Chemaitelly H, Ayoub HH, AlMukdad S, Coyle P, Tang P, Yassine HM, Al-Khatib HA, Smatti MK, Hasan MR, Al-Kanaani Z, Al-Kuwari E, Jeremijenko A, Kaleeckal AH, Latif AN, Shaik RM, Abdul-Rahim HF, Nasrallah GK, Al-Kuwari MG, Butt AA, Al-Romaihi HE, Al-Thani MH, Al-Khal A, Bertollini R, Abu-Raddad LJ. Protection from previous natural infection compared with mRNA vaccination against SARS-CoV-2 infection and severe COVID-19 in Qatar: a retrospective cohort study. THE LANCET. MICROBE 2022; 3:e944-e955. [PMID: 36375482 PMCID: PMC9651957 DOI: 10.1016/s2666-5247(22)00287-7] [Citation(s) in RCA: 26] [Impact Index Per Article: 13.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/08/2022] [Revised: 05/24/2022] [Accepted: 09/21/2022] [Indexed: 11/13/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Understanding protection conferred by natural SARS-CoV-2 infection versus COVID-19 vaccination is important for informing vaccine mandate decisions. We compared protection conferred by natural infection versus that from the BNT162b2 (Pfizer-BioNTech) and mRNA-1273 (Moderna) vaccines in Qatar. METHODS We conducted two matched retrospective cohort studies that emulated target trials. Data were obtained from the national federated databases for COVID-19 vaccination, SARS-CoV-2 testing, and COVID-19-related hospitalisation and death between Feb 28, 2020 (pandemic onset in Qatar) and May 12, 2022. We matched individuals with a documented primary infection and no vaccination record (natural infection cohort) with individuals who had received two doses (primary series) of the same vaccine (BNT162b2-vaccinated or mRNA-1273-vaccinated cohorts) at the start of follow-up (90 days after the primary infection). Individuals were exact matched (1:1) by sex, 10-year age group, nationality, comorbidity count, and timing of primary infection or first-dose vaccination. Incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection and COVID-19-related hospitalisation and death in the natural infection cohorts was compared with incidence in the vaccinated cohorts, using Cox proportional hazards regression models with adjustment for matching factors. FINDINGS Between Jan 5, 2021 (date of second-dose vaccine roll-out) and May 12, 2022, 104 500 individuals vaccinated with BNT162b2 and 61 955 individuals vaccinated with mRNA-1273 were matched to unvaccinated individuals with a documented primary infection. During follow-up, 7123 SARS-CoV-2 infections were recorded in the BNT162b2-vaccinated cohort and 3583 reinfections were recorded in the matched natural infection cohort. 4282 SARS-CoV-2 infections were recorded in the mRNA-1273-vaccinated cohort and 2301 reinfections were recorded in the matched natural infection cohort. The overall adjusted hazard ratio (HR) for SARS-CoV-2 infection was 0·47 (95% CI 0·45-0·48) after previous natural infection versus BNT162b2 vaccination, and 0·51 (0·49-0·54) after previous natural infection versus mRNA-1273 vaccination. The overall adjusted HR for severe (acute care hospitalisations), critical (intensive care unit hospitalisations), or fatal COVID-19 cases was 0·24 (0·08-0·72) after previous natural infection versus BNT162b2 vaccination, and 0·24 (0·05-1·19) after previous natural infection versus mRNA-1273 vaccination. Severe, critical, or fatal COVID-19 was rare in both the natural infection and vaccinated cohorts. INTERPRETATION Previous natural infection was associated with lower incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection, regardless of the variant, than mRNA primary-series vaccination. Vaccination remains the safest and most optimal tool for protecting against infection and COVID-19-related hospitalisation and death, irrespective of previous infection status. FUNDING The Biomedical Research Program and the Biostatistics, Epidemiology, and Biomathematics Research Core, Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar; Qatar Ministry of Public Health; Hamad Medical Corporation; Sidra Medicine; Qatar Genome Programme; and Qatar University Biomedical Research Center.
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Affiliation(s)
- Hiam Chemaitelly
- Infectious Disease Epidemiology Group, Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar, Cornell University, Qatar Foundation-Education City, Doha, Qatar,WHO Collaborating Centre for Disease Epidemiology Analytics on HIV/AIDS, Sexually Transmitted Infections, and Viral Hepatitis, Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar, Cornell University, Qatar Foundation-Education City, Doha, Qatar,Department of Population Health Sciences, Weill Cornell Medicine, Cornell University, New York, NY, USA,Correspondence to: Dr Hiam Chemaitelly, Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar, Cornell University, Qatar Foundation-Education City, Doha 24144, Qatar
| | - Houssein H Ayoub
- Mathematics Program, Department of Mathematics, Statistics, and Physics, College of Arts and Sciences, Qatar University, Doha, Qatar
| | - Sawsan AlMukdad
- Infectious Disease Epidemiology Group, Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar, Cornell University, Qatar Foundation-Education City, Doha, Qatar,WHO Collaborating Centre for Disease Epidemiology Analytics on HIV/AIDS, Sexually Transmitted Infections, and Viral Hepatitis, Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar, Cornell University, Qatar Foundation-Education City, Doha, Qatar
| | - Peter Coyle
- Hamad Medical Corporation, Doha, Qatar,Biomedical Research Center, QU Health, Qatar University, Doha, Qatar,Wellcome-Wolfson Institute for Experimental Medicine, Queens University, Belfast, UK
| | - Patrick Tang
- Department of Pathology, Sidra Medicine, Doha, Qatar
| | - Hadi M Yassine
- Biomedical Research Center, QU Health, Qatar University, Doha, Qatar,Department of Biomedical Science, College of Health Sciences, QU Health, Qatar University, Doha, Qatar
| | - Hebah A Al-Khatib
- Biomedical Research Center, QU Health, Qatar University, Doha, Qatar,Department of Biomedical Science, College of Health Sciences, QU Health, Qatar University, Doha, Qatar
| | - Maria K Smatti
- Biomedical Research Center, QU Health, Qatar University, Doha, Qatar,Department of Biomedical Science, College of Health Sciences, QU Health, Qatar University, Doha, Qatar
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | - Hanan F Abdul-Rahim
- Department of Public Health, College of Health Sciences, QU Health, Qatar University, Doha, Qatar
| | - Gheyath K Nasrallah
- Biomedical Research Center, QU Health, Qatar University, Doha, Qatar,Department of Biomedical Science, College of Health Sciences, QU Health, Qatar University, Doha, Qatar
| | | | - Adeel A Butt
- Department of Population Health Sciences, Weill Cornell Medicine, Cornell University, New York, NY, USA,Department of Medicine, Weill Cornell Medicine, Cornell University, New York, NY, USA,Hamad Medical Corporation, Doha, Qatar
| | | | | | | | | | - Laith J Abu-Raddad
- Infectious Disease Epidemiology Group, Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar, Cornell University, Qatar Foundation-Education City, Doha, Qatar,WHO Collaborating Centre for Disease Epidemiology Analytics on HIV/AIDS, Sexually Transmitted Infections, and Viral Hepatitis, Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar, Cornell University, Qatar Foundation-Education City, Doha, Qatar,Department of Population Health Sciences, Weill Cornell Medicine, Cornell University, New York, NY, USA,Department of Public Health, College of Health Sciences, QU Health, Qatar University, Doha, Qatar,Professor Laith J Abu-Raddad, Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar, Cornell University, Qatar Foundation-Education City, Doha 24144, Qatar
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Jung SM, Huh K, Radnaabaatar M, Jung J. Model-informed COVID-19 exit strategy with projections of SARS-CoV-2 infections generated by variants in the Republic of Korea. BMC Public Health 2022; 22:2098. [DOI: 10.1186/s12889-022-14576-w] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/23/2022] [Accepted: 11/09/2022] [Indexed: 11/18/2022] Open
Abstract
Abstract
Background
With the prompt administration of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccines, highly vaccinated countries have begun to lift their stringent control measures. However, considering the spread of highly transmissible new variants, resuming socio-economic activities may lead to the resurgence of incidence, particularly in nations with a low proportion of individuals who have natural immunity. Here, we aimed to quantitatively assess an optimal COVID-19 exit strategy in the Republic of Korea, where only a small number of cumulative incidences have been recorded as of September 2021, comparing epidemiological outcomes via scenario analysis.
Methods
A discrete-time deterministic compartmental model structured by age group was used, accounting for the variant-specific transmission dynamics and the currently planned nationwide vaccination. All parameters were calibrated using comprehensive empirical data obtained from the Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency.
Results
Our projection suggests that tapering the level of social distancing countermeasures to the minimum level from November 2021 can efficiently suppress a resurgence of incidence given the currently planned nationwide vaccine roll-out. In addition, considering the spread of the Delta variant, our model suggested that gradual easing of countermeasures for more than 4 months can efficiently withstand the prevalence of severe COVID-19 cases until the end of 2022.
Conclusions
Our model-based projections provide evidence-based guidance for an exit strategy that allows society to resume normal life while sustaining the suppression of the COVID-19 epidemic in countries where the spread of COVID-19 has been well controlled.
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Chemaitelly H, AlMukdad S, Ayoub HH, Altarawneh HN, Coyle P, Tang P, Yassine HM, Al-Khatib HA, Smatti MK, Hasan MR, Al-Kanaani Z, Al-Kuwari E, Jeremijenko A, Kaleeckal AH, Latif AN, Shaik RM, Abdul-Rahim HF, Nasrallah GK, Al-Kuwari MG, Al-Romaihi HE, Butt AA, Al-Thani MH, Al-Khal A, Bertollini R, Abu-Raddad LJ. Covid-19 Vaccine Protection among Children and Adolescents in Qatar. N Engl J Med 2022; 387:1865-1876. [PMID: 36322837 PMCID: PMC9644642 DOI: 10.1056/nejmoa2210058] [Citation(s) in RCA: 27] [Impact Index Per Article: 13.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/07/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND The BNT162b2 vaccine against coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) has been authorized for use in children 5 to 11 years of age and adolescents 12 to 17 years of age but in different antigen doses. METHODS We assessed the real-world effectiveness of the BNT162b2 vaccine against infection with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) among children and adolescents in Qatar. To compare the incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection in the national cohort of vaccinated participants with the incidence in the national cohort of unvaccinated participants, we conducted three matched, retrospective, target-trial, cohort studies - one assessing data obtained from children 5 to 11 years of age after the B.1.1.529 (omicron) variant became prevalent and two assessing data from adolescents 12 to 17 years of age before the emergence of the omicron variant (pre-omicron study) and after the omicron variant became prevalent. Associations were estimated with the use of Cox proportional-hazards regression models. RESULTS Among children, the overall effectiveness of the 10-μg primary vaccine series against infection with the omicron variant was 25.7% (95% confidence interval [CI], 10.0 to 38.6). Effectiveness was highest (49.6%; 95% CI, 28.5 to 64.5) right after receipt of the second dose but waned rapidly thereafter and was negligible after 3 months. Effectiveness was 46.3% (95% CI, 21.5 to 63.3) among children 5 to 7 years of age and 16.6% (95% CI, -4.2 to 33.2) among those 8 to 11 years of age. Among adolescents, the overall effectiveness of the 30-μg primary vaccine series against infection with the omicron variant was 30.6% (95% CI, 26.9 to 34.1), but many adolescents had been vaccinated months earlier. Effectiveness waned over time since receipt of the second dose. Effectiveness was 35.6% (95% CI, 31.2 to 39.6) among adolescents 12 to 14 years of age and 20.9% (95% CI, 13.8 to 27.4) among those 15 to 17 years of age. In the pre-omicron study, the overall effectiveness of the 30-μg primary vaccine series against SARS-CoV-2 infection among adolescents was 87.6% (95% CI, 84.0 to 90.4) and waned relatively slowly after receipt of the second dose. CONCLUSIONS Vaccination in children was associated with modest, rapidly waning protection against omicron infection. Vaccination in adolescents was associated with stronger, more durable protection, perhaps because of the larger antigen dose. (Funded by Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar and others.).
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Affiliation(s)
- Hiam Chemaitelly
- From the Infectious Disease Epidemiology Group (H.C., S.A., H.N.A., L.J.A.-R.) and the World Health Organization Collaborating Center for Disease Epidemiology Analytics on HIV/AIDS, Sexually Transmitted Infections, and Viral Hepatitis (H.C., S.A., H.N.A., L.J.A.-R.), Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar, Cornell University, Qatar Foundation-Education City, the Mathematics Program, Department of Mathematics, Statistics, and Physics, College of Arts and Sciences, Qatar University (H.H.A.), and the Biomedical Research Center (P.C., H.M.Y., H.A.A.-K., M.K.S., G.K.N.) and the Departments of Biomedical Science (H.M.Y., H.A.A.-K., M.K.S., G.K.N.) and Public Health (H.F.A.-R., L.J.A.-R.), College of Health Sciences, QU Health, Qatar University, Hamad Medical Corporation (P.C., Z.A.-K., E.A.-K., A.J., A.H.K., A.N.L., R.M.S., A.A.B., A.A.-K.), the Department of Pathology, Sidra Medicine (P.T., M.R.H.), Primary Health Care Corporation (M.G.A.-K.), and the Ministry of Public Health (H.E.A.-R., M.H.A.-T., R.B.) - all in Doha, Qatar; the Departments of Population Health Sciences (H.C., H.N.A., A.A.B., L.J.A.-R.) and Medicine (A.A.B.), Weill Cornell Medicine, Cornell University, New York; and the Wellcome-Wolfson Institute for Experimental Medicine, Queen's University, Belfast, United Kingdom (P.C.)
| | - Sawsan AlMukdad
- From the Infectious Disease Epidemiology Group (H.C., S.A., H.N.A., L.J.A.-R.) and the World Health Organization Collaborating Center for Disease Epidemiology Analytics on HIV/AIDS, Sexually Transmitted Infections, and Viral Hepatitis (H.C., S.A., H.N.A., L.J.A.-R.), Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar, Cornell University, Qatar Foundation-Education City, the Mathematics Program, Department of Mathematics, Statistics, and Physics, College of Arts and Sciences, Qatar University (H.H.A.), and the Biomedical Research Center (P.C., H.M.Y., H.A.A.-K., M.K.S., G.K.N.) and the Departments of Biomedical Science (H.M.Y., H.A.A.-K., M.K.S., G.K.N.) and Public Health (H.F.A.-R., L.J.A.-R.), College of Health Sciences, QU Health, Qatar University, Hamad Medical Corporation (P.C., Z.A.-K., E.A.-K., A.J., A.H.K., A.N.L., R.M.S., A.A.B., A.A.-K.), the Department of Pathology, Sidra Medicine (P.T., M.R.H.), Primary Health Care Corporation (M.G.A.-K.), and the Ministry of Public Health (H.E.A.-R., M.H.A.-T., R.B.) - all in Doha, Qatar; the Departments of Population Health Sciences (H.C., H.N.A., A.A.B., L.J.A.-R.) and Medicine (A.A.B.), Weill Cornell Medicine, Cornell University, New York; and the Wellcome-Wolfson Institute for Experimental Medicine, Queen's University, Belfast, United Kingdom (P.C.)
| | - Houssein H Ayoub
- From the Infectious Disease Epidemiology Group (H.C., S.A., H.N.A., L.J.A.-R.) and the World Health Organization Collaborating Center for Disease Epidemiology Analytics on HIV/AIDS, Sexually Transmitted Infections, and Viral Hepatitis (H.C., S.A., H.N.A., L.J.A.-R.), Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar, Cornell University, Qatar Foundation-Education City, the Mathematics Program, Department of Mathematics, Statistics, and Physics, College of Arts and Sciences, Qatar University (H.H.A.), and the Biomedical Research Center (P.C., H.M.Y., H.A.A.-K., M.K.S., G.K.N.) and the Departments of Biomedical Science (H.M.Y., H.A.A.-K., M.K.S., G.K.N.) and Public Health (H.F.A.-R., L.J.A.-R.), College of Health Sciences, QU Health, Qatar University, Hamad Medical Corporation (P.C., Z.A.-K., E.A.-K., A.J., A.H.K., A.N.L., R.M.S., A.A.B., A.A.-K.), the Department of Pathology, Sidra Medicine (P.T., M.R.H.), Primary Health Care Corporation (M.G.A.-K.), and the Ministry of Public Health (H.E.A.-R., M.H.A.-T., R.B.) - all in Doha, Qatar; the Departments of Population Health Sciences (H.C., H.N.A., A.A.B., L.J.A.-R.) and Medicine (A.A.B.), Weill Cornell Medicine, Cornell University, New York; and the Wellcome-Wolfson Institute for Experimental Medicine, Queen's University, Belfast, United Kingdom (P.C.)
| | - Heba N Altarawneh
- From the Infectious Disease Epidemiology Group (H.C., S.A., H.N.A., L.J.A.-R.) and the World Health Organization Collaborating Center for Disease Epidemiology Analytics on HIV/AIDS, Sexually Transmitted Infections, and Viral Hepatitis (H.C., S.A., H.N.A., L.J.A.-R.), Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar, Cornell University, Qatar Foundation-Education City, the Mathematics Program, Department of Mathematics, Statistics, and Physics, College of Arts and Sciences, Qatar University (H.H.A.), and the Biomedical Research Center (P.C., H.M.Y., H.A.A.-K., M.K.S., G.K.N.) and the Departments of Biomedical Science (H.M.Y., H.A.A.-K., M.K.S., G.K.N.) and Public Health (H.F.A.-R., L.J.A.-R.), College of Health Sciences, QU Health, Qatar University, Hamad Medical Corporation (P.C., Z.A.-K., E.A.-K., A.J., A.H.K., A.N.L., R.M.S., A.A.B., A.A.-K.), the Department of Pathology, Sidra Medicine (P.T., M.R.H.), Primary Health Care Corporation (M.G.A.-K.), and the Ministry of Public Health (H.E.A.-R., M.H.A.-T., R.B.) - all in Doha, Qatar; the Departments of Population Health Sciences (H.C., H.N.A., A.A.B., L.J.A.-R.) and Medicine (A.A.B.), Weill Cornell Medicine, Cornell University, New York; and the Wellcome-Wolfson Institute for Experimental Medicine, Queen's University, Belfast, United Kingdom (P.C.)
| | - Peter Coyle
- From the Infectious Disease Epidemiology Group (H.C., S.A., H.N.A., L.J.A.-R.) and the World Health Organization Collaborating Center for Disease Epidemiology Analytics on HIV/AIDS, Sexually Transmitted Infections, and Viral Hepatitis (H.C., S.A., H.N.A., L.J.A.-R.), Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar, Cornell University, Qatar Foundation-Education City, the Mathematics Program, Department of Mathematics, Statistics, and Physics, College of Arts and Sciences, Qatar University (H.H.A.), and the Biomedical Research Center (P.C., H.M.Y., H.A.A.-K., M.K.S., G.K.N.) and the Departments of Biomedical Science (H.M.Y., H.A.A.-K., M.K.S., G.K.N.) and Public Health (H.F.A.-R., L.J.A.-R.), College of Health Sciences, QU Health, Qatar University, Hamad Medical Corporation (P.C., Z.A.-K., E.A.-K., A.J., A.H.K., A.N.L., R.M.S., A.A.B., A.A.-K.), the Department of Pathology, Sidra Medicine (P.T., M.R.H.), Primary Health Care Corporation (M.G.A.-K.), and the Ministry of Public Health (H.E.A.-R., M.H.A.-T., R.B.) - all in Doha, Qatar; the Departments of Population Health Sciences (H.C., H.N.A., A.A.B., L.J.A.-R.) and Medicine (A.A.B.), Weill Cornell Medicine, Cornell University, New York; and the Wellcome-Wolfson Institute for Experimental Medicine, Queen's University, Belfast, United Kingdom (P.C.)
| | - Patrick Tang
- From the Infectious Disease Epidemiology Group (H.C., S.A., H.N.A., L.J.A.-R.) and the World Health Organization Collaborating Center for Disease Epidemiology Analytics on HIV/AIDS, Sexually Transmitted Infections, and Viral Hepatitis (H.C., S.A., H.N.A., L.J.A.-R.), Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar, Cornell University, Qatar Foundation-Education City, the Mathematics Program, Department of Mathematics, Statistics, and Physics, College of Arts and Sciences, Qatar University (H.H.A.), and the Biomedical Research Center (P.C., H.M.Y., H.A.A.-K., M.K.S., G.K.N.) and the Departments of Biomedical Science (H.M.Y., H.A.A.-K., M.K.S., G.K.N.) and Public Health (H.F.A.-R., L.J.A.-R.), College of Health Sciences, QU Health, Qatar University, Hamad Medical Corporation (P.C., Z.A.-K., E.A.-K., A.J., A.H.K., A.N.L., R.M.S., A.A.B., A.A.-K.), the Department of Pathology, Sidra Medicine (P.T., M.R.H.), Primary Health Care Corporation (M.G.A.-K.), and the Ministry of Public Health (H.E.A.-R., M.H.A.-T., R.B.) - all in Doha, Qatar; the Departments of Population Health Sciences (H.C., H.N.A., A.A.B., L.J.A.-R.) and Medicine (A.A.B.), Weill Cornell Medicine, Cornell University, New York; and the Wellcome-Wolfson Institute for Experimental Medicine, Queen's University, Belfast, United Kingdom (P.C.)
| | - Hadi M Yassine
- From the Infectious Disease Epidemiology Group (H.C., S.A., H.N.A., L.J.A.-R.) and the World Health Organization Collaborating Center for Disease Epidemiology Analytics on HIV/AIDS, Sexually Transmitted Infections, and Viral Hepatitis (H.C., S.A., H.N.A., L.J.A.-R.), Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar, Cornell University, Qatar Foundation-Education City, the Mathematics Program, Department of Mathematics, Statistics, and Physics, College of Arts and Sciences, Qatar University (H.H.A.), and the Biomedical Research Center (P.C., H.M.Y., H.A.A.-K., M.K.S., G.K.N.) and the Departments of Biomedical Science (H.M.Y., H.A.A.-K., M.K.S., G.K.N.) and Public Health (H.F.A.-R., L.J.A.-R.), College of Health Sciences, QU Health, Qatar University, Hamad Medical Corporation (P.C., Z.A.-K., E.A.-K., A.J., A.H.K., A.N.L., R.M.S., A.A.B., A.A.-K.), the Department of Pathology, Sidra Medicine (P.T., M.R.H.), Primary Health Care Corporation (M.G.A.-K.), and the Ministry of Public Health (H.E.A.-R., M.H.A.-T., R.B.) - all in Doha, Qatar; the Departments of Population Health Sciences (H.C., H.N.A., A.A.B., L.J.A.-R.) and Medicine (A.A.B.), Weill Cornell Medicine, Cornell University, New York; and the Wellcome-Wolfson Institute for Experimental Medicine, Queen's University, Belfast, United Kingdom (P.C.)
| | - Hebah A Al-Khatib
- From the Infectious Disease Epidemiology Group (H.C., S.A., H.N.A., L.J.A.-R.) and the World Health Organization Collaborating Center for Disease Epidemiology Analytics on HIV/AIDS, Sexually Transmitted Infections, and Viral Hepatitis (H.C., S.A., H.N.A., L.J.A.-R.), Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar, Cornell University, Qatar Foundation-Education City, the Mathematics Program, Department of Mathematics, Statistics, and Physics, College of Arts and Sciences, Qatar University (H.H.A.), and the Biomedical Research Center (P.C., H.M.Y., H.A.A.-K., M.K.S., G.K.N.) and the Departments of Biomedical Science (H.M.Y., H.A.A.-K., M.K.S., G.K.N.) and Public Health (H.F.A.-R., L.J.A.-R.), College of Health Sciences, QU Health, Qatar University, Hamad Medical Corporation (P.C., Z.A.-K., E.A.-K., A.J., A.H.K., A.N.L., R.M.S., A.A.B., A.A.-K.), the Department of Pathology, Sidra Medicine (P.T., M.R.H.), Primary Health Care Corporation (M.G.A.-K.), and the Ministry of Public Health (H.E.A.-R., M.H.A.-T., R.B.) - all in Doha, Qatar; the Departments of Population Health Sciences (H.C., H.N.A., A.A.B., L.J.A.-R.) and Medicine (A.A.B.), Weill Cornell Medicine, Cornell University, New York; and the Wellcome-Wolfson Institute for Experimental Medicine, Queen's University, Belfast, United Kingdom (P.C.)
| | - Maria K Smatti
- From the Infectious Disease Epidemiology Group (H.C., S.A., H.N.A., L.J.A.-R.) and the World Health Organization Collaborating Center for Disease Epidemiology Analytics on HIV/AIDS, Sexually Transmitted Infections, and Viral Hepatitis (H.C., S.A., H.N.A., L.J.A.-R.), Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar, Cornell University, Qatar Foundation-Education City, the Mathematics Program, Department of Mathematics, Statistics, and Physics, College of Arts and Sciences, Qatar University (H.H.A.), and the Biomedical Research Center (P.C., H.M.Y., H.A.A.-K., M.K.S., G.K.N.) and the Departments of Biomedical Science (H.M.Y., H.A.A.-K., M.K.S., G.K.N.) and Public Health (H.F.A.-R., L.J.A.-R.), College of Health Sciences, QU Health, Qatar University, Hamad Medical Corporation (P.C., Z.A.-K., E.A.-K., A.J., A.H.K., A.N.L., R.M.S., A.A.B., A.A.-K.), the Department of Pathology, Sidra Medicine (P.T., M.R.H.), Primary Health Care Corporation (M.G.A.-K.), and the Ministry of Public Health (H.E.A.-R., M.H.A.-T., R.B.) - all in Doha, Qatar; the Departments of Population Health Sciences (H.C., H.N.A., A.A.B., L.J.A.-R.) and Medicine (A.A.B.), Weill Cornell Medicine, Cornell University, New York; and the Wellcome-Wolfson Institute for Experimental Medicine, Queen's University, Belfast, United Kingdom (P.C.)
| | - Mohammad R Hasan
- From the Infectious Disease Epidemiology Group (H.C., S.A., H.N.A., L.J.A.-R.) and the World Health Organization Collaborating Center for Disease Epidemiology Analytics on HIV/AIDS, Sexually Transmitted Infections, and Viral Hepatitis (H.C., S.A., H.N.A., L.J.A.-R.), Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar, Cornell University, Qatar Foundation-Education City, the Mathematics Program, Department of Mathematics, Statistics, and Physics, College of Arts and Sciences, Qatar University (H.H.A.), and the Biomedical Research Center (P.C., H.M.Y., H.A.A.-K., M.K.S., G.K.N.) and the Departments of Biomedical Science (H.M.Y., H.A.A.-K., M.K.S., G.K.N.) and Public Health (H.F.A.-R., L.J.A.-R.), College of Health Sciences, QU Health, Qatar University, Hamad Medical Corporation (P.C., Z.A.-K., E.A.-K., A.J., A.H.K., A.N.L., R.M.S., A.A.B., A.A.-K.), the Department of Pathology, Sidra Medicine (P.T., M.R.H.), Primary Health Care Corporation (M.G.A.-K.), and the Ministry of Public Health (H.E.A.-R., M.H.A.-T., R.B.) - all in Doha, Qatar; the Departments of Population Health Sciences (H.C., H.N.A., A.A.B., L.J.A.-R.) and Medicine (A.A.B.), Weill Cornell Medicine, Cornell University, New York; and the Wellcome-Wolfson Institute for Experimental Medicine, Queen's University, Belfast, United Kingdom (P.C.)
| | - Zaina Al-Kanaani
- From the Infectious Disease Epidemiology Group (H.C., S.A., H.N.A., L.J.A.-R.) and the World Health Organization Collaborating Center for Disease Epidemiology Analytics on HIV/AIDS, Sexually Transmitted Infections, and Viral Hepatitis (H.C., S.A., H.N.A., L.J.A.-R.), Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar, Cornell University, Qatar Foundation-Education City, the Mathematics Program, Department of Mathematics, Statistics, and Physics, College of Arts and Sciences, Qatar University (H.H.A.), and the Biomedical Research Center (P.C., H.M.Y., H.A.A.-K., M.K.S., G.K.N.) and the Departments of Biomedical Science (H.M.Y., H.A.A.-K., M.K.S., G.K.N.) and Public Health (H.F.A.-R., L.J.A.-R.), College of Health Sciences, QU Health, Qatar University, Hamad Medical Corporation (P.C., Z.A.-K., E.A.-K., A.J., A.H.K., A.N.L., R.M.S., A.A.B., A.A.-K.), the Department of Pathology, Sidra Medicine (P.T., M.R.H.), Primary Health Care Corporation (M.G.A.-K.), and the Ministry of Public Health (H.E.A.-R., M.H.A.-T., R.B.) - all in Doha, Qatar; the Departments of Population Health Sciences (H.C., H.N.A., A.A.B., L.J.A.-R.) and Medicine (A.A.B.), Weill Cornell Medicine, Cornell University, New York; and the Wellcome-Wolfson Institute for Experimental Medicine, Queen's University, Belfast, United Kingdom (P.C.)
| | - Einas Al-Kuwari
- From the Infectious Disease Epidemiology Group (H.C., S.A., H.N.A., L.J.A.-R.) and the World Health Organization Collaborating Center for Disease Epidemiology Analytics on HIV/AIDS, Sexually Transmitted Infections, and Viral Hepatitis (H.C., S.A., H.N.A., L.J.A.-R.), Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar, Cornell University, Qatar Foundation-Education City, the Mathematics Program, Department of Mathematics, Statistics, and Physics, College of Arts and Sciences, Qatar University (H.H.A.), and the Biomedical Research Center (P.C., H.M.Y., H.A.A.-K., M.K.S., G.K.N.) and the Departments of Biomedical Science (H.M.Y., H.A.A.-K., M.K.S., G.K.N.) and Public Health (H.F.A.-R., L.J.A.-R.), College of Health Sciences, QU Health, Qatar University, Hamad Medical Corporation (P.C., Z.A.-K., E.A.-K., A.J., A.H.K., A.N.L., R.M.S., A.A.B., A.A.-K.), the Department of Pathology, Sidra Medicine (P.T., M.R.H.), Primary Health Care Corporation (M.G.A.-K.), and the Ministry of Public Health (H.E.A.-R., M.H.A.-T., R.B.) - all in Doha, Qatar; the Departments of Population Health Sciences (H.C., H.N.A., A.A.B., L.J.A.-R.) and Medicine (A.A.B.), Weill Cornell Medicine, Cornell University, New York; and the Wellcome-Wolfson Institute for Experimental Medicine, Queen's University, Belfast, United Kingdom (P.C.)
| | - Andrew Jeremijenko
- From the Infectious Disease Epidemiology Group (H.C., S.A., H.N.A., L.J.A.-R.) and the World Health Organization Collaborating Center for Disease Epidemiology Analytics on HIV/AIDS, Sexually Transmitted Infections, and Viral Hepatitis (H.C., S.A., H.N.A., L.J.A.-R.), Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar, Cornell University, Qatar Foundation-Education City, the Mathematics Program, Department of Mathematics, Statistics, and Physics, College of Arts and Sciences, Qatar University (H.H.A.), and the Biomedical Research Center (P.C., H.M.Y., H.A.A.-K., M.K.S., G.K.N.) and the Departments of Biomedical Science (H.M.Y., H.A.A.-K., M.K.S., G.K.N.) and Public Health (H.F.A.-R., L.J.A.-R.), College of Health Sciences, QU Health, Qatar University, Hamad Medical Corporation (P.C., Z.A.-K., E.A.-K., A.J., A.H.K., A.N.L., R.M.S., A.A.B., A.A.-K.), the Department of Pathology, Sidra Medicine (P.T., M.R.H.), Primary Health Care Corporation (M.G.A.-K.), and the Ministry of Public Health (H.E.A.-R., M.H.A.-T., R.B.) - all in Doha, Qatar; the Departments of Population Health Sciences (H.C., H.N.A., A.A.B., L.J.A.-R.) and Medicine (A.A.B.), Weill Cornell Medicine, Cornell University, New York; and the Wellcome-Wolfson Institute for Experimental Medicine, Queen's University, Belfast, United Kingdom (P.C.)
| | - Anvar H Kaleeckal
- From the Infectious Disease Epidemiology Group (H.C., S.A., H.N.A., L.J.A.-R.) and the World Health Organization Collaborating Center for Disease Epidemiology Analytics on HIV/AIDS, Sexually Transmitted Infections, and Viral Hepatitis (H.C., S.A., H.N.A., L.J.A.-R.), Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar, Cornell University, Qatar Foundation-Education City, the Mathematics Program, Department of Mathematics, Statistics, and Physics, College of Arts and Sciences, Qatar University (H.H.A.), and the Biomedical Research Center (P.C., H.M.Y., H.A.A.-K., M.K.S., G.K.N.) and the Departments of Biomedical Science (H.M.Y., H.A.A.-K., M.K.S., G.K.N.) and Public Health (H.F.A.-R., L.J.A.-R.), College of Health Sciences, QU Health, Qatar University, Hamad Medical Corporation (P.C., Z.A.-K., E.A.-K., A.J., A.H.K., A.N.L., R.M.S., A.A.B., A.A.-K.), the Department of Pathology, Sidra Medicine (P.T., M.R.H.), Primary Health Care Corporation (M.G.A.-K.), and the Ministry of Public Health (H.E.A.-R., M.H.A.-T., R.B.) - all in Doha, Qatar; the Departments of Population Health Sciences (H.C., H.N.A., A.A.B., L.J.A.-R.) and Medicine (A.A.B.), Weill Cornell Medicine, Cornell University, New York; and the Wellcome-Wolfson Institute for Experimental Medicine, Queen's University, Belfast, United Kingdom (P.C.)
| | - Ali N Latif
- From the Infectious Disease Epidemiology Group (H.C., S.A., H.N.A., L.J.A.-R.) and the World Health Organization Collaborating Center for Disease Epidemiology Analytics on HIV/AIDS, Sexually Transmitted Infections, and Viral Hepatitis (H.C., S.A., H.N.A., L.J.A.-R.), Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar, Cornell University, Qatar Foundation-Education City, the Mathematics Program, Department of Mathematics, Statistics, and Physics, College of Arts and Sciences, Qatar University (H.H.A.), and the Biomedical Research Center (P.C., H.M.Y., H.A.A.-K., M.K.S., G.K.N.) and the Departments of Biomedical Science (H.M.Y., H.A.A.-K., M.K.S., G.K.N.) and Public Health (H.F.A.-R., L.J.A.-R.), College of Health Sciences, QU Health, Qatar University, Hamad Medical Corporation (P.C., Z.A.-K., E.A.-K., A.J., A.H.K., A.N.L., R.M.S., A.A.B., A.A.-K.), the Department of Pathology, Sidra Medicine (P.T., M.R.H.), Primary Health Care Corporation (M.G.A.-K.), and the Ministry of Public Health (H.E.A.-R., M.H.A.-T., R.B.) - all in Doha, Qatar; the Departments of Population Health Sciences (H.C., H.N.A., A.A.B., L.J.A.-R.) and Medicine (A.A.B.), Weill Cornell Medicine, Cornell University, New York; and the Wellcome-Wolfson Institute for Experimental Medicine, Queen's University, Belfast, United Kingdom (P.C.)
| | - Riyazuddin M Shaik
- From the Infectious Disease Epidemiology Group (H.C., S.A., H.N.A., L.J.A.-R.) and the World Health Organization Collaborating Center for Disease Epidemiology Analytics on HIV/AIDS, Sexually Transmitted Infections, and Viral Hepatitis (H.C., S.A., H.N.A., L.J.A.-R.), Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar, Cornell University, Qatar Foundation-Education City, the Mathematics Program, Department of Mathematics, Statistics, and Physics, College of Arts and Sciences, Qatar University (H.H.A.), and the Biomedical Research Center (P.C., H.M.Y., H.A.A.-K., M.K.S., G.K.N.) and the Departments of Biomedical Science (H.M.Y., H.A.A.-K., M.K.S., G.K.N.) and Public Health (H.F.A.-R., L.J.A.-R.), College of Health Sciences, QU Health, Qatar University, Hamad Medical Corporation (P.C., Z.A.-K., E.A.-K., A.J., A.H.K., A.N.L., R.M.S., A.A.B., A.A.-K.), the Department of Pathology, Sidra Medicine (P.T., M.R.H.), Primary Health Care Corporation (M.G.A.-K.), and the Ministry of Public Health (H.E.A.-R., M.H.A.-T., R.B.) - all in Doha, Qatar; the Departments of Population Health Sciences (H.C., H.N.A., A.A.B., L.J.A.-R.) and Medicine (A.A.B.), Weill Cornell Medicine, Cornell University, New York; and the Wellcome-Wolfson Institute for Experimental Medicine, Queen's University, Belfast, United Kingdom (P.C.)
| | - Hanan F Abdul-Rahim
- From the Infectious Disease Epidemiology Group (H.C., S.A., H.N.A., L.J.A.-R.) and the World Health Organization Collaborating Center for Disease Epidemiology Analytics on HIV/AIDS, Sexually Transmitted Infections, and Viral Hepatitis (H.C., S.A., H.N.A., L.J.A.-R.), Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar, Cornell University, Qatar Foundation-Education City, the Mathematics Program, Department of Mathematics, Statistics, and Physics, College of Arts and Sciences, Qatar University (H.H.A.), and the Biomedical Research Center (P.C., H.M.Y., H.A.A.-K., M.K.S., G.K.N.) and the Departments of Biomedical Science (H.M.Y., H.A.A.-K., M.K.S., G.K.N.) and Public Health (H.F.A.-R., L.J.A.-R.), College of Health Sciences, QU Health, Qatar University, Hamad Medical Corporation (P.C., Z.A.-K., E.A.-K., A.J., A.H.K., A.N.L., R.M.S., A.A.B., A.A.-K.), the Department of Pathology, Sidra Medicine (P.T., M.R.H.), Primary Health Care Corporation (M.G.A.-K.), and the Ministry of Public Health (H.E.A.-R., M.H.A.-T., R.B.) - all in Doha, Qatar; the Departments of Population Health Sciences (H.C., H.N.A., A.A.B., L.J.A.-R.) and Medicine (A.A.B.), Weill Cornell Medicine, Cornell University, New York; and the Wellcome-Wolfson Institute for Experimental Medicine, Queen's University, Belfast, United Kingdom (P.C.)
| | - Gheyath K Nasrallah
- From the Infectious Disease Epidemiology Group (H.C., S.A., H.N.A., L.J.A.-R.) and the World Health Organization Collaborating Center for Disease Epidemiology Analytics on HIV/AIDS, Sexually Transmitted Infections, and Viral Hepatitis (H.C., S.A., H.N.A., L.J.A.-R.), Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar, Cornell University, Qatar Foundation-Education City, the Mathematics Program, Department of Mathematics, Statistics, and Physics, College of Arts and Sciences, Qatar University (H.H.A.), and the Biomedical Research Center (P.C., H.M.Y., H.A.A.-K., M.K.S., G.K.N.) and the Departments of Biomedical Science (H.M.Y., H.A.A.-K., M.K.S., G.K.N.) and Public Health (H.F.A.-R., L.J.A.-R.), College of Health Sciences, QU Health, Qatar University, Hamad Medical Corporation (P.C., Z.A.-K., E.A.-K., A.J., A.H.K., A.N.L., R.M.S., A.A.B., A.A.-K.), the Department of Pathology, Sidra Medicine (P.T., M.R.H.), Primary Health Care Corporation (M.G.A.-K.), and the Ministry of Public Health (H.E.A.-R., M.H.A.-T., R.B.) - all in Doha, Qatar; the Departments of Population Health Sciences (H.C., H.N.A., A.A.B., L.J.A.-R.) and Medicine (A.A.B.), Weill Cornell Medicine, Cornell University, New York; and the Wellcome-Wolfson Institute for Experimental Medicine, Queen's University, Belfast, United Kingdom (P.C.)
| | - Mohamed G Al-Kuwari
- From the Infectious Disease Epidemiology Group (H.C., S.A., H.N.A., L.J.A.-R.) and the World Health Organization Collaborating Center for Disease Epidemiology Analytics on HIV/AIDS, Sexually Transmitted Infections, and Viral Hepatitis (H.C., S.A., H.N.A., L.J.A.-R.), Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar, Cornell University, Qatar Foundation-Education City, the Mathematics Program, Department of Mathematics, Statistics, and Physics, College of Arts and Sciences, Qatar University (H.H.A.), and the Biomedical Research Center (P.C., H.M.Y., H.A.A.-K., M.K.S., G.K.N.) and the Departments of Biomedical Science (H.M.Y., H.A.A.-K., M.K.S., G.K.N.) and Public Health (H.F.A.-R., L.J.A.-R.), College of Health Sciences, QU Health, Qatar University, Hamad Medical Corporation (P.C., Z.A.-K., E.A.-K., A.J., A.H.K., A.N.L., R.M.S., A.A.B., A.A.-K.), the Department of Pathology, Sidra Medicine (P.T., M.R.H.), Primary Health Care Corporation (M.G.A.-K.), and the Ministry of Public Health (H.E.A.-R., M.H.A.-T., R.B.) - all in Doha, Qatar; the Departments of Population Health Sciences (H.C., H.N.A., A.A.B., L.J.A.-R.) and Medicine (A.A.B.), Weill Cornell Medicine, Cornell University, New York; and the Wellcome-Wolfson Institute for Experimental Medicine, Queen's University, Belfast, United Kingdom (P.C.)
| | - Hamad E Al-Romaihi
- From the Infectious Disease Epidemiology Group (H.C., S.A., H.N.A., L.J.A.-R.) and the World Health Organization Collaborating Center for Disease Epidemiology Analytics on HIV/AIDS, Sexually Transmitted Infections, and Viral Hepatitis (H.C., S.A., H.N.A., L.J.A.-R.), Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar, Cornell University, Qatar Foundation-Education City, the Mathematics Program, Department of Mathematics, Statistics, and Physics, College of Arts and Sciences, Qatar University (H.H.A.), and the Biomedical Research Center (P.C., H.M.Y., H.A.A.-K., M.K.S., G.K.N.) and the Departments of Biomedical Science (H.M.Y., H.A.A.-K., M.K.S., G.K.N.) and Public Health (H.F.A.-R., L.J.A.-R.), College of Health Sciences, QU Health, Qatar University, Hamad Medical Corporation (P.C., Z.A.-K., E.A.-K., A.J., A.H.K., A.N.L., R.M.S., A.A.B., A.A.-K.), the Department of Pathology, Sidra Medicine (P.T., M.R.H.), Primary Health Care Corporation (M.G.A.-K.), and the Ministry of Public Health (H.E.A.-R., M.H.A.-T., R.B.) - all in Doha, Qatar; the Departments of Population Health Sciences (H.C., H.N.A., A.A.B., L.J.A.-R.) and Medicine (A.A.B.), Weill Cornell Medicine, Cornell University, New York; and the Wellcome-Wolfson Institute for Experimental Medicine, Queen's University, Belfast, United Kingdom (P.C.)
| | - Adeel A Butt
- From the Infectious Disease Epidemiology Group (H.C., S.A., H.N.A., L.J.A.-R.) and the World Health Organization Collaborating Center for Disease Epidemiology Analytics on HIV/AIDS, Sexually Transmitted Infections, and Viral Hepatitis (H.C., S.A., H.N.A., L.J.A.-R.), Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar, Cornell University, Qatar Foundation-Education City, the Mathematics Program, Department of Mathematics, Statistics, and Physics, College of Arts and Sciences, Qatar University (H.H.A.), and the Biomedical Research Center (P.C., H.M.Y., H.A.A.-K., M.K.S., G.K.N.) and the Departments of Biomedical Science (H.M.Y., H.A.A.-K., M.K.S., G.K.N.) and Public Health (H.F.A.-R., L.J.A.-R.), College of Health Sciences, QU Health, Qatar University, Hamad Medical Corporation (P.C., Z.A.-K., E.A.-K., A.J., A.H.K., A.N.L., R.M.S., A.A.B., A.A.-K.), the Department of Pathology, Sidra Medicine (P.T., M.R.H.), Primary Health Care Corporation (M.G.A.-K.), and the Ministry of Public Health (H.E.A.-R., M.H.A.-T., R.B.) - all in Doha, Qatar; the Departments of Population Health Sciences (H.C., H.N.A., A.A.B., L.J.A.-R.) and Medicine (A.A.B.), Weill Cornell Medicine, Cornell University, New York; and the Wellcome-Wolfson Institute for Experimental Medicine, Queen's University, Belfast, United Kingdom (P.C.)
| | - Mohamed H Al-Thani
- From the Infectious Disease Epidemiology Group (H.C., S.A., H.N.A., L.J.A.-R.) and the World Health Organization Collaborating Center for Disease Epidemiology Analytics on HIV/AIDS, Sexually Transmitted Infections, and Viral Hepatitis (H.C., S.A., H.N.A., L.J.A.-R.), Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar, Cornell University, Qatar Foundation-Education City, the Mathematics Program, Department of Mathematics, Statistics, and Physics, College of Arts and Sciences, Qatar University (H.H.A.), and the Biomedical Research Center (P.C., H.M.Y., H.A.A.-K., M.K.S., G.K.N.) and the Departments of Biomedical Science (H.M.Y., H.A.A.-K., M.K.S., G.K.N.) and Public Health (H.F.A.-R., L.J.A.-R.), College of Health Sciences, QU Health, Qatar University, Hamad Medical Corporation (P.C., Z.A.-K., E.A.-K., A.J., A.H.K., A.N.L., R.M.S., A.A.B., A.A.-K.), the Department of Pathology, Sidra Medicine (P.T., M.R.H.), Primary Health Care Corporation (M.G.A.-K.), and the Ministry of Public Health (H.E.A.-R., M.H.A.-T., R.B.) - all in Doha, Qatar; the Departments of Population Health Sciences (H.C., H.N.A., A.A.B., L.J.A.-R.) and Medicine (A.A.B.), Weill Cornell Medicine, Cornell University, New York; and the Wellcome-Wolfson Institute for Experimental Medicine, Queen's University, Belfast, United Kingdom (P.C.)
| | - Abdullatif Al-Khal
- From the Infectious Disease Epidemiology Group (H.C., S.A., H.N.A., L.J.A.-R.) and the World Health Organization Collaborating Center for Disease Epidemiology Analytics on HIV/AIDS, Sexually Transmitted Infections, and Viral Hepatitis (H.C., S.A., H.N.A., L.J.A.-R.), Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar, Cornell University, Qatar Foundation-Education City, the Mathematics Program, Department of Mathematics, Statistics, and Physics, College of Arts and Sciences, Qatar University (H.H.A.), and the Biomedical Research Center (P.C., H.M.Y., H.A.A.-K., M.K.S., G.K.N.) and the Departments of Biomedical Science (H.M.Y., H.A.A.-K., M.K.S., G.K.N.) and Public Health (H.F.A.-R., L.J.A.-R.), College of Health Sciences, QU Health, Qatar University, Hamad Medical Corporation (P.C., Z.A.-K., E.A.-K., A.J., A.H.K., A.N.L., R.M.S., A.A.B., A.A.-K.), the Department of Pathology, Sidra Medicine (P.T., M.R.H.), Primary Health Care Corporation (M.G.A.-K.), and the Ministry of Public Health (H.E.A.-R., M.H.A.-T., R.B.) - all in Doha, Qatar; the Departments of Population Health Sciences (H.C., H.N.A., A.A.B., L.J.A.-R.) and Medicine (A.A.B.), Weill Cornell Medicine, Cornell University, New York; and the Wellcome-Wolfson Institute for Experimental Medicine, Queen's University, Belfast, United Kingdom (P.C.)
| | - Roberto Bertollini
- From the Infectious Disease Epidemiology Group (H.C., S.A., H.N.A., L.J.A.-R.) and the World Health Organization Collaborating Center for Disease Epidemiology Analytics on HIV/AIDS, Sexually Transmitted Infections, and Viral Hepatitis (H.C., S.A., H.N.A., L.J.A.-R.), Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar, Cornell University, Qatar Foundation-Education City, the Mathematics Program, Department of Mathematics, Statistics, and Physics, College of Arts and Sciences, Qatar University (H.H.A.), and the Biomedical Research Center (P.C., H.M.Y., H.A.A.-K., M.K.S., G.K.N.) and the Departments of Biomedical Science (H.M.Y., H.A.A.-K., M.K.S., G.K.N.) and Public Health (H.F.A.-R., L.J.A.-R.), College of Health Sciences, QU Health, Qatar University, Hamad Medical Corporation (P.C., Z.A.-K., E.A.-K., A.J., A.H.K., A.N.L., R.M.S., A.A.B., A.A.-K.), the Department of Pathology, Sidra Medicine (P.T., M.R.H.), Primary Health Care Corporation (M.G.A.-K.), and the Ministry of Public Health (H.E.A.-R., M.H.A.-T., R.B.) - all in Doha, Qatar; the Departments of Population Health Sciences (H.C., H.N.A., A.A.B., L.J.A.-R.) and Medicine (A.A.B.), Weill Cornell Medicine, Cornell University, New York; and the Wellcome-Wolfson Institute for Experimental Medicine, Queen's University, Belfast, United Kingdom (P.C.)
| | - Laith J Abu-Raddad
- From the Infectious Disease Epidemiology Group (H.C., S.A., H.N.A., L.J.A.-R.) and the World Health Organization Collaborating Center for Disease Epidemiology Analytics on HIV/AIDS, Sexually Transmitted Infections, and Viral Hepatitis (H.C., S.A., H.N.A., L.J.A.-R.), Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar, Cornell University, Qatar Foundation-Education City, the Mathematics Program, Department of Mathematics, Statistics, and Physics, College of Arts and Sciences, Qatar University (H.H.A.), and the Biomedical Research Center (P.C., H.M.Y., H.A.A.-K., M.K.S., G.K.N.) and the Departments of Biomedical Science (H.M.Y., H.A.A.-K., M.K.S., G.K.N.) and Public Health (H.F.A.-R., L.J.A.-R.), College of Health Sciences, QU Health, Qatar University, Hamad Medical Corporation (P.C., Z.A.-K., E.A.-K., A.J., A.H.K., A.N.L., R.M.S., A.A.B., A.A.-K.), the Department of Pathology, Sidra Medicine (P.T., M.R.H.), Primary Health Care Corporation (M.G.A.-K.), and the Ministry of Public Health (H.E.A.-R., M.H.A.-T., R.B.) - all in Doha, Qatar; the Departments of Population Health Sciences (H.C., H.N.A., A.A.B., L.J.A.-R.) and Medicine (A.A.B.), Weill Cornell Medicine, Cornell University, New York; and the Wellcome-Wolfson Institute for Experimental Medicine, Queen's University, Belfast, United Kingdom (P.C.)
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15
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Protection of Omicron sub-lineage infection against reinfection with another Omicron sub-lineage. Nat Commun 2022; 13:4675. [PMID: 35945213 PMCID: PMC9362989 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-022-32363-4] [Citation(s) in RCA: 31] [Impact Index Per Article: 15.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/12/2022] [Accepted: 07/26/2022] [Indexed: 12/22/2022] Open
Abstract
There is significant genetic distance between SARS-CoV-2 Omicron (B.1.1.529) variant BA.1 and BA.2 sub-lineages. This study investigates immune protection of infection with one sub-lineage against reinfection with the other sub-lineage in Qatar during a large BA.1 and BA.2 Omicron wave, from December 19, 2021 to March 21, 2022. Two national matched, retrospective cohort studies are conducted to estimate effectiveness of BA.1 infection against reinfection with BA.2 (N = 20,994; BA.1-against-BA.2 study), and effectiveness of BA.2 infection against reinfection with BA.1 (N = 110,315; BA.2-against-BA.1 study). Associations are estimated using Cox proportional-hazards regression models after multiple imputation to assign a sub-lineage status for cases with no sub-lineage status (using probabilities based on the test date). Effectiveness of BA.1 infection against reinfection with BA.2 is estimated at 94.2% (95% CI: 89.2-96.9%). Effectiveness of BA.2 infection against reinfection with BA.1 is estimated at 80.9% (95% CI: 73.1-86.4%). Infection with the BA.1 sub-lineage appears to induce strong, but not full immune protection against reinfection with the BA.2 sub-lineage, and vice versa, for at least several weeks after the initial infection.
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16
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El-Malah SS, Saththasivam J, Jabbar KA, K K A, Gomez TA, Ahmed AA, Mohamoud YA, Malek JA, Abu Raddad LJ, Abu Halaweh HA, Bertollini R, Lawler J, Mahmoud KA. Application of human RNase P normalization for the realistic estimation of SARS-CoV-2 viral load in wastewater: A perspective from Qatar wastewater surveillance. ENVIRONMENTAL TECHNOLOGY & INNOVATION 2022; 27:102775. [PMID: 35761926 PMCID: PMC9220754 DOI: 10.1016/j.eti.2022.102775] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/19/2022] [Revised: 05/30/2022] [Accepted: 06/19/2022] [Indexed: 05/06/2023]
Abstract
The apparent uncertainty associated with shedding patterns, environmental impacts, and sample processing strategies have greatly influenced the variability of SARS-CoV-2 concentrations in wastewater. This study evaluates the use of a new normalization approach using human RNase P for the logic estimation of SARS-CoV-2 viral load in wastewater. SARS-CoV-2 variants outbreak was monitored during the circulating wave between February and August 2021. Sewage samples were collected from five major wastewater treatment plants and subsequently analyzed to determine the viral loads in the wastewater. SARS-CoV-2 was detected in all the samples where the wastewater Ct values exhibited a similar trend as the reported number of new daily positive cases in the country. The infected population number was estimated using a mathematical model that compensated for RNA decay due to wastewater temperature and sewer residence time, and which indicated that the number of positive cases circulating in the population declined from 765,729 ± 142,080 to 2,303 ± 464 during the sampling period. Genomic analyses of SARS-CoV-2 of thirty wastewater samples collected between March 2021 and April 2021 revealed that alpha (B.1.1.7) and beta (B.1.351) were among the dominant variants of concern (VOC) in Qatar. The findings of this study imply that the normalization of data allows a more realistic assessment of incidence trends within the population.
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Affiliation(s)
- Shimaa S El-Malah
- Qatar Environment and Energy Research Institute (QEERI), Hamad Bin Khalifa University, Qatar Foundation, P.O. Box 34110, Doha, Qatar
| | - Jayaprakash Saththasivam
- Qatar Environment and Energy Research Institute (QEERI), Hamad Bin Khalifa University, Qatar Foundation, P.O. Box 34110, Doha, Qatar
| | - Khadeeja Abdul Jabbar
- Qatar Environment and Energy Research Institute (QEERI), Hamad Bin Khalifa University, Qatar Foundation, P.O. Box 34110, Doha, Qatar
| | - Arun K K
- Qatar Environment and Energy Research Institute (QEERI), Hamad Bin Khalifa University, Qatar Foundation, P.O. Box 34110, Doha, Qatar
| | - Tricia A Gomez
- Qatar Environment and Energy Research Institute (QEERI), Hamad Bin Khalifa University, Qatar Foundation, P.O. Box 34110, Doha, Qatar
| | - Ayeda A Ahmed
- Genomics Laboratory, Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar (WCM-Q), Cornell University, Doha, Qatar
| | - Yasmin A Mohamoud
- Genomics Laboratory, Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar (WCM-Q), Cornell University, Doha, Qatar
| | - Joel A Malek
- Genomics Laboratory, Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar (WCM-Q), Cornell University, Doha, Qatar
| | - Laith J Abu Raddad
- Infectious Disease Epidemiology Group, Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar, Cornell University, Doha, Qatar
| | - Hussein A Abu Halaweh
- Drainage Network Operation & Maintenance Department, Public Works Authority, Doha, Qatar
| | | | - Jenny Lawler
- Qatar Environment and Energy Research Institute (QEERI), Hamad Bin Khalifa University, Qatar Foundation, P.O. Box 34110, Doha, Qatar
| | - Khaled A Mahmoud
- Qatar Environment and Energy Research Institute (QEERI), Hamad Bin Khalifa University, Qatar Foundation, P.O. Box 34110, Doha, Qatar
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17
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Alishaq M, Nafady-Hego H, Jeremijenko A, Al Ajmi JA, Elgendy M, Al Ansari NAA, Elgendy H, Abou-Samra AB, Butt AA. Seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 Infection Among Working Women and Impact of Workplace Restrictions. Infect Drug Resist 2022; 15:3871-3879. [PMID: 35903580 PMCID: PMC9315056 DOI: 10.2147/idr.s360241] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/28/2022] [Accepted: 07/05/2022] [Indexed: 12/03/2022] Open
Abstract
Objective To determine the prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 virus infection among female workers who were restricted to working from home compared with those who continued to attend in-person work. Methods As part of national surveillance program, serum samples for SARS-CoV-2 antibody testing and nasopharyngeal swabs for SARS-CoV-2 PCR were obtained on 1636 female school staff and salon/spa workers who were restricted to work remotely (restricted group) and 1190 female health-care workers who continued in-person work (unrestricted group). Results Seropositivity rate was 5.1% among the restricted and 22.7% among the unrestricted group (P < 0.0001). Presence of symptoms at baseline (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 2.88; 95% CI 2.09–3.97), contact with a confirmed case (aOR 2.34; 95% CI 1.37–3.98), and unrestricted work type (aOR 4.71; 95% CI 3.24–6.86) were associated with a higher risk of infection, while increasing age was associated with a lower risk of infection. Conclusion Prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 infection as determined by seropositivity was higher among women who were not subject to workplace restrictions.
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Affiliation(s)
- Moza Alishaq
- Department of Quality and Clinical Transformation, Hamad Medical Corporation, Doha, Qatar
| | - Hanaa Nafady-Hego
- Microbiology and Immunology Department, Faculty of Medicine, Assiut University, Assiut, Egypt
| | | | | | - Mohamed Elgendy
- Faculty of Medicine, Universiti Sains of Malaysia, Kelantan, Malaysia
| | | | - Hamed Elgendy
- Hamad Medical Corporation, Doha, Qatar.,Anesthesia Department, Faculty of Medicine, Assiut University, Assiut, Egypt
| | - Abdul-Badi Abou-Samra
- Department of Quality and Clinical Transformation, Hamad Medical Corporation, Doha, Qatar.,Department of Medicine, Hamad Medical Corporation, Doha, Qatar
| | - Adeel A Butt
- Hamad Medical Corporation, Doha, Qatar.,Departments of Medicine and Population Health Sciences, Weill Cornell Medical College, New York, NY, USA.,Departments of Medicine and Population Health Sciences, Weill Cornell Medical College, Doha, Qatar
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18
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Hoteit R, Yassine HM. Biological Properties of SARS-CoV-2 Variants: Epidemiological Impact and Clinical Consequences. Vaccines (Basel) 2022; 10:919. [PMID: 35746526 PMCID: PMC9230982 DOI: 10.3390/vaccines10060919] [Citation(s) in RCA: 19] [Impact Index Per Article: 9.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/21/2022] [Revised: 05/18/2022] [Accepted: 05/21/2022] [Indexed: 02/06/2023] Open
Abstract
Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is a virus that belongs to the coronavirus family and is the cause of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). As of May 2022, it had caused more than 500 million infections and more than 6 million deaths worldwide. Several vaccines have been produced and tested over the last two years. The SARS-CoV-2 virus, on the other hand, has mutated over time, resulting in genetic variation in the population of circulating variants during the COVID-19 pandemic. It has also shown immune-evading characteristics, suggesting that vaccinations against these variants could be potentially ineffective. The purpose of this review article is to investigate the key variants of concern (VOCs) and mutations of the virus driving the current pandemic, as well as to explore the transmission rates of SARS-CoV-2 VOCs in relation to epidemiological factors and to compare the virus's transmission rate to that of prior coronaviruses. We examined and provided key information on SARS-CoV-2 VOCs in this study, including their transmissibility, infectivity rate, disease severity, affinity for angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2) receptors, viral load, reproduction number, vaccination effectiveness, and vaccine breakthrough.
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Affiliation(s)
- Reem Hoteit
- Clinical Research Institute, Faculty of Medicine, American University of Beirut, Beirut 110236, Lebanon;
| | - Hadi M. Yassine
- Biomedical Research Center and College of Health Sciences-QU Health, Qatar University, Doha 2713, Qatar
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Chemaitelly H, Ayoub HH, AlMukdad S, Coyle P, Tang P, Yassine HM, Al-Khatib HA, Smatti MK, Hasan MR, Al-Kanaani Z, Al-Kuwari E, Jeremijenko A, Kaleeckal AH, Latif AN, Shaik RM, Abdul-Rahim HF, Nasrallah GK, Al-Kuwari MG, Butt AA, Al-Romaihi HE, Al-Thani MH, Al-Khal A, Bertollini R, Abu-Raddad LJ. Duration of mRNA vaccine protection against SARS-CoV-2 Omicron BA.1 and BA.2 subvariants in Qatar. Nat Commun 2022; 13:3082. [PMID: 35654888 PMCID: PMC9163167 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-022-30895-3] [Citation(s) in RCA: 129] [Impact Index Per Article: 64.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/18/2022] [Accepted: 05/24/2022] [Indexed: 12/14/2022] Open
Abstract
SARS-CoV-2 Omicron BA.1 and BA.2 subvariants are genetically divergent. We conducted a matched, test-negative, case-control study to estimate duration of protection of the second and third/booster doses of mRNA COVID-19 vaccines against BA.1 and BA.2 infections in Qatar. BNT162b2 effectiveness was highest at 46.6% (95% CI: 33.4-57.2%) against symptomatic BA.1 and at 51.7% (95% CI: 43.2-58.9%) against symptomatic BA.2 infections in the first three months after the second dose, but declined to ~10% or below thereafter. Effectiveness rebounded to 59.9% (95% CI: 51.2-67.0%) and 43.7% (95% CI: 36.5-50.0%), respectively, in the first month after the booster dose, before declining again. Effectiveness against COVID-19 hospitalization and death was 70-80% after the second dose and >90% after the booster dose. mRNA-1273 vaccine protection showed similar patterns. mRNA vaccines provide comparable, moderate, and short-lived protection against symptomatic BA.1 and BA.2 Omicron infections, but strong and durable protection against COVID-19 hospitalization and death.
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Affiliation(s)
- Hiam Chemaitelly
- Infectious Disease Epidemiology Group, Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar, Cornell University, Doha, Qatar.
- World Health Organization Collaborating Centre for Disease Epidemiology Analytics on HIV/AIDS, Sexually Transmitted Infections, and Viral Hepatitis, Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar, Qatar Foundation-Education City, Cornell University, Doha, Qatar.
- Department of Population Health Sciences, Weill Cornell Medicine, Cornell University, New York, NY, USA.
| | - Houssein H Ayoub
- Mathematics Program, Department of Mathematics, Statistics, and Physics, College of Arts and Sciences, Qatar University, Doha, Qatar
| | - Sawsan AlMukdad
- Infectious Disease Epidemiology Group, Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar, Cornell University, Doha, Qatar
- World Health Organization Collaborating Centre for Disease Epidemiology Analytics on HIV/AIDS, Sexually Transmitted Infections, and Viral Hepatitis, Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar, Qatar Foundation-Education City, Cornell University, Doha, Qatar
| | - Peter Coyle
- Hamad Medical Corporation, Doha, Qatar
- Biomedical Research Center, Member of QU Health, Qatar University, Doha, Qatar
- Wellcome-Wolfson Institute for Experimental Medicine, Queens University, Belfast, UK
| | - Patrick Tang
- Department of Pathology, Sidra Medicine, Doha, Qatar
| | - Hadi M Yassine
- Biomedical Research Center, Member of QU Health, Qatar University, Doha, Qatar
- Department of Biomedical Science, College of Health Sciences, Member of QU Health, Qatar University, Doha, Qatar
| | - Hebah A Al-Khatib
- Biomedical Research Center, Member of QU Health, Qatar University, Doha, Qatar
- Department of Biomedical Science, College of Health Sciences, Member of QU Health, Qatar University, Doha, Qatar
| | - Maria K Smatti
- Biomedical Research Center, Member of QU Health, Qatar University, Doha, Qatar
- Department of Biomedical Science, College of Health Sciences, Member of QU Health, Qatar University, Doha, Qatar
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | - Hanan F Abdul-Rahim
- Department of Public Health, College of Health Sciences, QU Health, Qatar University, Doha, Qatar
| | - Gheyath K Nasrallah
- Biomedical Research Center, Member of QU Health, Qatar University, Doha, Qatar
- Department of Biomedical Science, College of Health Sciences, Member of QU Health, Qatar University, Doha, Qatar
| | | | - Adeel A Butt
- Department of Population Health Sciences, Weill Cornell Medicine, Cornell University, New York, NY, USA
- Hamad Medical Corporation, Doha, Qatar
- Department of Medicine, Weill Cornell Medicine, Cornell University, New York, NY, USA
| | | | | | | | | | - Laith J Abu-Raddad
- Infectious Disease Epidemiology Group, Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar, Cornell University, Doha, Qatar.
- World Health Organization Collaborating Centre for Disease Epidemiology Analytics on HIV/AIDS, Sexually Transmitted Infections, and Viral Hepatitis, Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar, Qatar Foundation-Education City, Cornell University, Doha, Qatar.
- Department of Population Health Sciences, Weill Cornell Medicine, Cornell University, New York, NY, USA.
- Department of Public Health, College of Health Sciences, QU Health, Qatar University, Doha, Qatar.
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Abu-Raddad LJ, Chemaitelly H, Ayoub HH, AlMukdad S, Yassine HM, Al-Khatib HA, Smatti MK, Tang P, Hasan MR, Coyle P, Al-Kanaani Z, Al-Kuwari E, Jeremijenko A, Kaleeckal AH, Latif AN, Shaik RM, Abdul-Rahim HF, Nasrallah GK, Al-Kuwari MG, Butt AA, Al-Romaihi HE, Al-Thani MH, Al-Khal A, Bertollini R. Effect of mRNA Vaccine Boosters against SARS-CoV-2 Omicron Infection in Qatar. N Engl J Med 2022; 386:1804-1816. [PMID: 35263534 PMCID: PMC8929389 DOI: 10.1056/nejmoa2200797] [Citation(s) in RCA: 242] [Impact Index Per Article: 121.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/19/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Waning of vaccine protection against coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) and the emergence of the omicron (or B.1.1.529) variant of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) have led to expedited efforts to scale up booster vaccination. Protection conferred by booster doses of the BNT162b2 (Pfizer-BioNTech) and mRNA-1273 (Moderna) vaccines in Qatar, as compared with protection conferred by the two-dose primary series, is unclear. METHODS We conducted two matched retrospective cohort studies to assess the effectiveness of booster vaccination, as compared with that of a two-dose primary series alone, against symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection and Covid-19-related hospitalization and death during a large wave of omicron infections from December 19, 2021, through January 26, 2022. The association of booster status with infection was estimated with the use of Cox proportional-hazards regression models. RESULTS In a population of 2,239,193 persons who had received at least two doses of BNT162b2 or mRNA-1273 vaccine, those who had also received a booster were matched with persons who had not received a booster. Among the BNT162b2-vaccinated persons, the cumulative incidence of symptomatic omicron infection was 2.4% (95% confidence interval [CI], 2.3 to 2.5) in the booster cohort and 4.5% (95% CI, 4.3 to 4.6) in the nonbooster cohort after 35 days of follow-up. Booster effectiveness against symptomatic omicron infection, as compared with that of the primary series, was 49.4% (95% CI, 47.1 to 51.6). Booster effectiveness against Covid-19-related hospitalization and death due to omicron infection, as compared with the primary series, was 76.5% (95% CI, 55.9 to 87.5). BNT162b2 booster effectiveness against symptomatic infection with the delta (or B.1.617.2) variant, as compared with the primary series, was 86.1% (95% CI, 67.3 to 94.1). Among the mRNA-1273-vaccinated persons, the cumulative incidence of symptomatic omicron infection was 1.0% (95% CI, 0.9 to 1.2) in the booster cohort and 1.9% (95% CI, 1.8 to 2.1) in the nonbooster cohort after 35 days; booster effectiveness against symptomatic omicron infection, as compared with the primary series, was 47.3% (95% CI, 40.7 to 53.3). Few severe Covid-19 cases were noted in the mRNA-1273-vaccinated cohorts. CONCLUSIONS The messenger RNA (mRNA) boosters were highly effective against symptomatic delta infection, but they were less effective against symptomatic omicron infection. However, with both variants, mRNA boosters led to strong protection against Covid-19-related hospitalization and death. (Funded by Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar and others.).
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Affiliation(s)
- Laith J Abu-Raddad
- From the Infectious Disease Epidemiology Group (L.J.A.-R., H.C., S.A.) and the World Health Organization Collaborating Center for Disease Epidemiology Analytics on HIV/AIDS, Sexually Transmitted Infections, and Viral Hepatitis (L.J.A.-R., H.C., S.A.), Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar, Cornell University, Qatar Foundation-Education City, the Departments of Public Health (L.J.A.-R., H.F.A.-R.) and Biomedical Science (H.M.Y., H.A.A.-K., M.K.S., G.K.N.), College of Health Sciences, QU Health, the Mathematics Program, Department of Mathematics, Statistics, and Physics, College of Arts and Sciences (H.H.A.), the Biomedical Research Center, QU Health (H.M.Y., H.A.A.-K., M.K.S., P.C., G.K.N.), Qatar University, the Department of Pathology, Sidra Medicine (P.T., M.R.H.), Hamad Medical Corporation (P.C., Z.A.-K., E.A.-K., A.J., A.H.K., A.N.L., R.M.S., A.A.B., A.A.-K.), Primary Health Care Corporation (M.G.A.-K.), and the Ministry of Public Health (H.E.A.-R., M.H.A.-T., R.B.) - all in Doha, Qatar; the Departments of Population Health Sciences (L.J.A.-R., H.C., A.A.B.) and Medicine (A.A.B.), Weill Cornell Medicine, Cornell University, New York; and the Wellcome-Wolfson Institute for Experimental Medicine, Queens University, Belfast, United Kingdom (P.C.)
| | - Hiam Chemaitelly
- From the Infectious Disease Epidemiology Group (L.J.A.-R., H.C., S.A.) and the World Health Organization Collaborating Center for Disease Epidemiology Analytics on HIV/AIDS, Sexually Transmitted Infections, and Viral Hepatitis (L.J.A.-R., H.C., S.A.), Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar, Cornell University, Qatar Foundation-Education City, the Departments of Public Health (L.J.A.-R., H.F.A.-R.) and Biomedical Science (H.M.Y., H.A.A.-K., M.K.S., G.K.N.), College of Health Sciences, QU Health, the Mathematics Program, Department of Mathematics, Statistics, and Physics, College of Arts and Sciences (H.H.A.), the Biomedical Research Center, QU Health (H.M.Y., H.A.A.-K., M.K.S., P.C., G.K.N.), Qatar University, the Department of Pathology, Sidra Medicine (P.T., M.R.H.), Hamad Medical Corporation (P.C., Z.A.-K., E.A.-K., A.J., A.H.K., A.N.L., R.M.S., A.A.B., A.A.-K.), Primary Health Care Corporation (M.G.A.-K.), and the Ministry of Public Health (H.E.A.-R., M.H.A.-T., R.B.) - all in Doha, Qatar; the Departments of Population Health Sciences (L.J.A.-R., H.C., A.A.B.) and Medicine (A.A.B.), Weill Cornell Medicine, Cornell University, New York; and the Wellcome-Wolfson Institute for Experimental Medicine, Queens University, Belfast, United Kingdom (P.C.)
| | - Houssein H Ayoub
- From the Infectious Disease Epidemiology Group (L.J.A.-R., H.C., S.A.) and the World Health Organization Collaborating Center for Disease Epidemiology Analytics on HIV/AIDS, Sexually Transmitted Infections, and Viral Hepatitis (L.J.A.-R., H.C., S.A.), Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar, Cornell University, Qatar Foundation-Education City, the Departments of Public Health (L.J.A.-R., H.F.A.-R.) and Biomedical Science (H.M.Y., H.A.A.-K., M.K.S., G.K.N.), College of Health Sciences, QU Health, the Mathematics Program, Department of Mathematics, Statistics, and Physics, College of Arts and Sciences (H.H.A.), the Biomedical Research Center, QU Health (H.M.Y., H.A.A.-K., M.K.S., P.C., G.K.N.), Qatar University, the Department of Pathology, Sidra Medicine (P.T., M.R.H.), Hamad Medical Corporation (P.C., Z.A.-K., E.A.-K., A.J., A.H.K., A.N.L., R.M.S., A.A.B., A.A.-K.), Primary Health Care Corporation (M.G.A.-K.), and the Ministry of Public Health (H.E.A.-R., M.H.A.-T., R.B.) - all in Doha, Qatar; the Departments of Population Health Sciences (L.J.A.-R., H.C., A.A.B.) and Medicine (A.A.B.), Weill Cornell Medicine, Cornell University, New York; and the Wellcome-Wolfson Institute for Experimental Medicine, Queens University, Belfast, United Kingdom (P.C.)
| | - Sawsan AlMukdad
- From the Infectious Disease Epidemiology Group (L.J.A.-R., H.C., S.A.) and the World Health Organization Collaborating Center for Disease Epidemiology Analytics on HIV/AIDS, Sexually Transmitted Infections, and Viral Hepatitis (L.J.A.-R., H.C., S.A.), Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar, Cornell University, Qatar Foundation-Education City, the Departments of Public Health (L.J.A.-R., H.F.A.-R.) and Biomedical Science (H.M.Y., H.A.A.-K., M.K.S., G.K.N.), College of Health Sciences, QU Health, the Mathematics Program, Department of Mathematics, Statistics, and Physics, College of Arts and Sciences (H.H.A.), the Biomedical Research Center, QU Health (H.M.Y., H.A.A.-K., M.K.S., P.C., G.K.N.), Qatar University, the Department of Pathology, Sidra Medicine (P.T., M.R.H.), Hamad Medical Corporation (P.C., Z.A.-K., E.A.-K., A.J., A.H.K., A.N.L., R.M.S., A.A.B., A.A.-K.), Primary Health Care Corporation (M.G.A.-K.), and the Ministry of Public Health (H.E.A.-R., M.H.A.-T., R.B.) - all in Doha, Qatar; the Departments of Population Health Sciences (L.J.A.-R., H.C., A.A.B.) and Medicine (A.A.B.), Weill Cornell Medicine, Cornell University, New York; and the Wellcome-Wolfson Institute for Experimental Medicine, Queens University, Belfast, United Kingdom (P.C.)
| | - Hadi M Yassine
- From the Infectious Disease Epidemiology Group (L.J.A.-R., H.C., S.A.) and the World Health Organization Collaborating Center for Disease Epidemiology Analytics on HIV/AIDS, Sexually Transmitted Infections, and Viral Hepatitis (L.J.A.-R., H.C., S.A.), Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar, Cornell University, Qatar Foundation-Education City, the Departments of Public Health (L.J.A.-R., H.F.A.-R.) and Biomedical Science (H.M.Y., H.A.A.-K., M.K.S., G.K.N.), College of Health Sciences, QU Health, the Mathematics Program, Department of Mathematics, Statistics, and Physics, College of Arts and Sciences (H.H.A.), the Biomedical Research Center, QU Health (H.M.Y., H.A.A.-K., M.K.S., P.C., G.K.N.), Qatar University, the Department of Pathology, Sidra Medicine (P.T., M.R.H.), Hamad Medical Corporation (P.C., Z.A.-K., E.A.-K., A.J., A.H.K., A.N.L., R.M.S., A.A.B., A.A.-K.), Primary Health Care Corporation (M.G.A.-K.), and the Ministry of Public Health (H.E.A.-R., M.H.A.-T., R.B.) - all in Doha, Qatar; the Departments of Population Health Sciences (L.J.A.-R., H.C., A.A.B.) and Medicine (A.A.B.), Weill Cornell Medicine, Cornell University, New York; and the Wellcome-Wolfson Institute for Experimental Medicine, Queens University, Belfast, United Kingdom (P.C.)
| | - Hebah A Al-Khatib
- From the Infectious Disease Epidemiology Group (L.J.A.-R., H.C., S.A.) and the World Health Organization Collaborating Center for Disease Epidemiology Analytics on HIV/AIDS, Sexually Transmitted Infections, and Viral Hepatitis (L.J.A.-R., H.C., S.A.), Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar, Cornell University, Qatar Foundation-Education City, the Departments of Public Health (L.J.A.-R., H.F.A.-R.) and Biomedical Science (H.M.Y., H.A.A.-K., M.K.S., G.K.N.), College of Health Sciences, QU Health, the Mathematics Program, Department of Mathematics, Statistics, and Physics, College of Arts and Sciences (H.H.A.), the Biomedical Research Center, QU Health (H.M.Y., H.A.A.-K., M.K.S., P.C., G.K.N.), Qatar University, the Department of Pathology, Sidra Medicine (P.T., M.R.H.), Hamad Medical Corporation (P.C., Z.A.-K., E.A.-K., A.J., A.H.K., A.N.L., R.M.S., A.A.B., A.A.-K.), Primary Health Care Corporation (M.G.A.-K.), and the Ministry of Public Health (H.E.A.-R., M.H.A.-T., R.B.) - all in Doha, Qatar; the Departments of Population Health Sciences (L.J.A.-R., H.C., A.A.B.) and Medicine (A.A.B.), Weill Cornell Medicine, Cornell University, New York; and the Wellcome-Wolfson Institute for Experimental Medicine, Queens University, Belfast, United Kingdom (P.C.)
| | - Maria K Smatti
- From the Infectious Disease Epidemiology Group (L.J.A.-R., H.C., S.A.) and the World Health Organization Collaborating Center for Disease Epidemiology Analytics on HIV/AIDS, Sexually Transmitted Infections, and Viral Hepatitis (L.J.A.-R., H.C., S.A.), Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar, Cornell University, Qatar Foundation-Education City, the Departments of Public Health (L.J.A.-R., H.F.A.-R.) and Biomedical Science (H.M.Y., H.A.A.-K., M.K.S., G.K.N.), College of Health Sciences, QU Health, the Mathematics Program, Department of Mathematics, Statistics, and Physics, College of Arts and Sciences (H.H.A.), the Biomedical Research Center, QU Health (H.M.Y., H.A.A.-K., M.K.S., P.C., G.K.N.), Qatar University, the Department of Pathology, Sidra Medicine (P.T., M.R.H.), Hamad Medical Corporation (P.C., Z.A.-K., E.A.-K., A.J., A.H.K., A.N.L., R.M.S., A.A.B., A.A.-K.), Primary Health Care Corporation (M.G.A.-K.), and the Ministry of Public Health (H.E.A.-R., M.H.A.-T., R.B.) - all in Doha, Qatar; the Departments of Population Health Sciences (L.J.A.-R., H.C., A.A.B.) and Medicine (A.A.B.), Weill Cornell Medicine, Cornell University, New York; and the Wellcome-Wolfson Institute for Experimental Medicine, Queens University, Belfast, United Kingdom (P.C.)
| | - Patrick Tang
- From the Infectious Disease Epidemiology Group (L.J.A.-R., H.C., S.A.) and the World Health Organization Collaborating Center for Disease Epidemiology Analytics on HIV/AIDS, Sexually Transmitted Infections, and Viral Hepatitis (L.J.A.-R., H.C., S.A.), Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar, Cornell University, Qatar Foundation-Education City, the Departments of Public Health (L.J.A.-R., H.F.A.-R.) and Biomedical Science (H.M.Y., H.A.A.-K., M.K.S., G.K.N.), College of Health Sciences, QU Health, the Mathematics Program, Department of Mathematics, Statistics, and Physics, College of Arts and Sciences (H.H.A.), the Biomedical Research Center, QU Health (H.M.Y., H.A.A.-K., M.K.S., P.C., G.K.N.), Qatar University, the Department of Pathology, Sidra Medicine (P.T., M.R.H.), Hamad Medical Corporation (P.C., Z.A.-K., E.A.-K., A.J., A.H.K., A.N.L., R.M.S., A.A.B., A.A.-K.), Primary Health Care Corporation (M.G.A.-K.), and the Ministry of Public Health (H.E.A.-R., M.H.A.-T., R.B.) - all in Doha, Qatar; the Departments of Population Health Sciences (L.J.A.-R., H.C., A.A.B.) and Medicine (A.A.B.), Weill Cornell Medicine, Cornell University, New York; and the Wellcome-Wolfson Institute for Experimental Medicine, Queens University, Belfast, United Kingdom (P.C.)
| | - Mohammad R Hasan
- From the Infectious Disease Epidemiology Group (L.J.A.-R., H.C., S.A.) and the World Health Organization Collaborating Center for Disease Epidemiology Analytics on HIV/AIDS, Sexually Transmitted Infections, and Viral Hepatitis (L.J.A.-R., H.C., S.A.), Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar, Cornell University, Qatar Foundation-Education City, the Departments of Public Health (L.J.A.-R., H.F.A.-R.) and Biomedical Science (H.M.Y., H.A.A.-K., M.K.S., G.K.N.), College of Health Sciences, QU Health, the Mathematics Program, Department of Mathematics, Statistics, and Physics, College of Arts and Sciences (H.H.A.), the Biomedical Research Center, QU Health (H.M.Y., H.A.A.-K., M.K.S., P.C., G.K.N.), Qatar University, the Department of Pathology, Sidra Medicine (P.T., M.R.H.), Hamad Medical Corporation (P.C., Z.A.-K., E.A.-K., A.J., A.H.K., A.N.L., R.M.S., A.A.B., A.A.-K.), Primary Health Care Corporation (M.G.A.-K.), and the Ministry of Public Health (H.E.A.-R., M.H.A.-T., R.B.) - all in Doha, Qatar; the Departments of Population Health Sciences (L.J.A.-R., H.C., A.A.B.) and Medicine (A.A.B.), Weill Cornell Medicine, Cornell University, New York; and the Wellcome-Wolfson Institute for Experimental Medicine, Queens University, Belfast, United Kingdom (P.C.)
| | - Peter Coyle
- From the Infectious Disease Epidemiology Group (L.J.A.-R., H.C., S.A.) and the World Health Organization Collaborating Center for Disease Epidemiology Analytics on HIV/AIDS, Sexually Transmitted Infections, and Viral Hepatitis (L.J.A.-R., H.C., S.A.), Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar, Cornell University, Qatar Foundation-Education City, the Departments of Public Health (L.J.A.-R., H.F.A.-R.) and Biomedical Science (H.M.Y., H.A.A.-K., M.K.S., G.K.N.), College of Health Sciences, QU Health, the Mathematics Program, Department of Mathematics, Statistics, and Physics, College of Arts and Sciences (H.H.A.), the Biomedical Research Center, QU Health (H.M.Y., H.A.A.-K., M.K.S., P.C., G.K.N.), Qatar University, the Department of Pathology, Sidra Medicine (P.T., M.R.H.), Hamad Medical Corporation (P.C., Z.A.-K., E.A.-K., A.J., A.H.K., A.N.L., R.M.S., A.A.B., A.A.-K.), Primary Health Care Corporation (M.G.A.-K.), and the Ministry of Public Health (H.E.A.-R., M.H.A.-T., R.B.) - all in Doha, Qatar; the Departments of Population Health Sciences (L.J.A.-R., H.C., A.A.B.) and Medicine (A.A.B.), Weill Cornell Medicine, Cornell University, New York; and the Wellcome-Wolfson Institute for Experimental Medicine, Queens University, Belfast, United Kingdom (P.C.)
| | - Zaina Al-Kanaani
- From the Infectious Disease Epidemiology Group (L.J.A.-R., H.C., S.A.) and the World Health Organization Collaborating Center for Disease Epidemiology Analytics on HIV/AIDS, Sexually Transmitted Infections, and Viral Hepatitis (L.J.A.-R., H.C., S.A.), Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar, Cornell University, Qatar Foundation-Education City, the Departments of Public Health (L.J.A.-R., H.F.A.-R.) and Biomedical Science (H.M.Y., H.A.A.-K., M.K.S., G.K.N.), College of Health Sciences, QU Health, the Mathematics Program, Department of Mathematics, Statistics, and Physics, College of Arts and Sciences (H.H.A.), the Biomedical Research Center, QU Health (H.M.Y., H.A.A.-K., M.K.S., P.C., G.K.N.), Qatar University, the Department of Pathology, Sidra Medicine (P.T., M.R.H.), Hamad Medical Corporation (P.C., Z.A.-K., E.A.-K., A.J., A.H.K., A.N.L., R.M.S., A.A.B., A.A.-K.), Primary Health Care Corporation (M.G.A.-K.), and the Ministry of Public Health (H.E.A.-R., M.H.A.-T., R.B.) - all in Doha, Qatar; the Departments of Population Health Sciences (L.J.A.-R., H.C., A.A.B.) and Medicine (A.A.B.), Weill Cornell Medicine, Cornell University, New York; and the Wellcome-Wolfson Institute for Experimental Medicine, Queens University, Belfast, United Kingdom (P.C.)
| | - Einas Al-Kuwari
- From the Infectious Disease Epidemiology Group (L.J.A.-R., H.C., S.A.) and the World Health Organization Collaborating Center for Disease Epidemiology Analytics on HIV/AIDS, Sexually Transmitted Infections, and Viral Hepatitis (L.J.A.-R., H.C., S.A.), Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar, Cornell University, Qatar Foundation-Education City, the Departments of Public Health (L.J.A.-R., H.F.A.-R.) and Biomedical Science (H.M.Y., H.A.A.-K., M.K.S., G.K.N.), College of Health Sciences, QU Health, the Mathematics Program, Department of Mathematics, Statistics, and Physics, College of Arts and Sciences (H.H.A.), the Biomedical Research Center, QU Health (H.M.Y., H.A.A.-K., M.K.S., P.C., G.K.N.), Qatar University, the Department of Pathology, Sidra Medicine (P.T., M.R.H.), Hamad Medical Corporation (P.C., Z.A.-K., E.A.-K., A.J., A.H.K., A.N.L., R.M.S., A.A.B., A.A.-K.), Primary Health Care Corporation (M.G.A.-K.), and the Ministry of Public Health (H.E.A.-R., M.H.A.-T., R.B.) - all in Doha, Qatar; the Departments of Population Health Sciences (L.J.A.-R., H.C., A.A.B.) and Medicine (A.A.B.), Weill Cornell Medicine, Cornell University, New York; and the Wellcome-Wolfson Institute for Experimental Medicine, Queens University, Belfast, United Kingdom (P.C.)
| | - Andrew Jeremijenko
- From the Infectious Disease Epidemiology Group (L.J.A.-R., H.C., S.A.) and the World Health Organization Collaborating Center for Disease Epidemiology Analytics on HIV/AIDS, Sexually Transmitted Infections, and Viral Hepatitis (L.J.A.-R., H.C., S.A.), Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar, Cornell University, Qatar Foundation-Education City, the Departments of Public Health (L.J.A.-R., H.F.A.-R.) and Biomedical Science (H.M.Y., H.A.A.-K., M.K.S., G.K.N.), College of Health Sciences, QU Health, the Mathematics Program, Department of Mathematics, Statistics, and Physics, College of Arts and Sciences (H.H.A.), the Biomedical Research Center, QU Health (H.M.Y., H.A.A.-K., M.K.S., P.C., G.K.N.), Qatar University, the Department of Pathology, Sidra Medicine (P.T., M.R.H.), Hamad Medical Corporation (P.C., Z.A.-K., E.A.-K., A.J., A.H.K., A.N.L., R.M.S., A.A.B., A.A.-K.), Primary Health Care Corporation (M.G.A.-K.), and the Ministry of Public Health (H.E.A.-R., M.H.A.-T., R.B.) - all in Doha, Qatar; the Departments of Population Health Sciences (L.J.A.-R., H.C., A.A.B.) and Medicine (A.A.B.), Weill Cornell Medicine, Cornell University, New York; and the Wellcome-Wolfson Institute for Experimental Medicine, Queens University, Belfast, United Kingdom (P.C.)
| | - Anvar H Kaleeckal
- From the Infectious Disease Epidemiology Group (L.J.A.-R., H.C., S.A.) and the World Health Organization Collaborating Center for Disease Epidemiology Analytics on HIV/AIDS, Sexually Transmitted Infections, and Viral Hepatitis (L.J.A.-R., H.C., S.A.), Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar, Cornell University, Qatar Foundation-Education City, the Departments of Public Health (L.J.A.-R., H.F.A.-R.) and Biomedical Science (H.M.Y., H.A.A.-K., M.K.S., G.K.N.), College of Health Sciences, QU Health, the Mathematics Program, Department of Mathematics, Statistics, and Physics, College of Arts and Sciences (H.H.A.), the Biomedical Research Center, QU Health (H.M.Y., H.A.A.-K., M.K.S., P.C., G.K.N.), Qatar University, the Department of Pathology, Sidra Medicine (P.T., M.R.H.), Hamad Medical Corporation (P.C., Z.A.-K., E.A.-K., A.J., A.H.K., A.N.L., R.M.S., A.A.B., A.A.-K.), Primary Health Care Corporation (M.G.A.-K.), and the Ministry of Public Health (H.E.A.-R., M.H.A.-T., R.B.) - all in Doha, Qatar; the Departments of Population Health Sciences (L.J.A.-R., H.C., A.A.B.) and Medicine (A.A.B.), Weill Cornell Medicine, Cornell University, New York; and the Wellcome-Wolfson Institute for Experimental Medicine, Queens University, Belfast, United Kingdom (P.C.)
| | - Ali N Latif
- From the Infectious Disease Epidemiology Group (L.J.A.-R., H.C., S.A.) and the World Health Organization Collaborating Center for Disease Epidemiology Analytics on HIV/AIDS, Sexually Transmitted Infections, and Viral Hepatitis (L.J.A.-R., H.C., S.A.), Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar, Cornell University, Qatar Foundation-Education City, the Departments of Public Health (L.J.A.-R., H.F.A.-R.) and Biomedical Science (H.M.Y., H.A.A.-K., M.K.S., G.K.N.), College of Health Sciences, QU Health, the Mathematics Program, Department of Mathematics, Statistics, and Physics, College of Arts and Sciences (H.H.A.), the Biomedical Research Center, QU Health (H.M.Y., H.A.A.-K., M.K.S., P.C., G.K.N.), Qatar University, the Department of Pathology, Sidra Medicine (P.T., M.R.H.), Hamad Medical Corporation (P.C., Z.A.-K., E.A.-K., A.J., A.H.K., A.N.L., R.M.S., A.A.B., A.A.-K.), Primary Health Care Corporation (M.G.A.-K.), and the Ministry of Public Health (H.E.A.-R., M.H.A.-T., R.B.) - all in Doha, Qatar; the Departments of Population Health Sciences (L.J.A.-R., H.C., A.A.B.) and Medicine (A.A.B.), Weill Cornell Medicine, Cornell University, New York; and the Wellcome-Wolfson Institute for Experimental Medicine, Queens University, Belfast, United Kingdom (P.C.)
| | - Riyazuddin M Shaik
- From the Infectious Disease Epidemiology Group (L.J.A.-R., H.C., S.A.) and the World Health Organization Collaborating Center for Disease Epidemiology Analytics on HIV/AIDS, Sexually Transmitted Infections, and Viral Hepatitis (L.J.A.-R., H.C., S.A.), Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar, Cornell University, Qatar Foundation-Education City, the Departments of Public Health (L.J.A.-R., H.F.A.-R.) and Biomedical Science (H.M.Y., H.A.A.-K., M.K.S., G.K.N.), College of Health Sciences, QU Health, the Mathematics Program, Department of Mathematics, Statistics, and Physics, College of Arts and Sciences (H.H.A.), the Biomedical Research Center, QU Health (H.M.Y., H.A.A.-K., M.K.S., P.C., G.K.N.), Qatar University, the Department of Pathology, Sidra Medicine (P.T., M.R.H.), Hamad Medical Corporation (P.C., Z.A.-K., E.A.-K., A.J., A.H.K., A.N.L., R.M.S., A.A.B., A.A.-K.), Primary Health Care Corporation (M.G.A.-K.), and the Ministry of Public Health (H.E.A.-R., M.H.A.-T., R.B.) - all in Doha, Qatar; the Departments of Population Health Sciences (L.J.A.-R., H.C., A.A.B.) and Medicine (A.A.B.), Weill Cornell Medicine, Cornell University, New York; and the Wellcome-Wolfson Institute for Experimental Medicine, Queens University, Belfast, United Kingdom (P.C.)
| | - Hanan F Abdul-Rahim
- From the Infectious Disease Epidemiology Group (L.J.A.-R., H.C., S.A.) and the World Health Organization Collaborating Center for Disease Epidemiology Analytics on HIV/AIDS, Sexually Transmitted Infections, and Viral Hepatitis (L.J.A.-R., H.C., S.A.), Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar, Cornell University, Qatar Foundation-Education City, the Departments of Public Health (L.J.A.-R., H.F.A.-R.) and Biomedical Science (H.M.Y., H.A.A.-K., M.K.S., G.K.N.), College of Health Sciences, QU Health, the Mathematics Program, Department of Mathematics, Statistics, and Physics, College of Arts and Sciences (H.H.A.), the Biomedical Research Center, QU Health (H.M.Y., H.A.A.-K., M.K.S., P.C., G.K.N.), Qatar University, the Department of Pathology, Sidra Medicine (P.T., M.R.H.), Hamad Medical Corporation (P.C., Z.A.-K., E.A.-K., A.J., A.H.K., A.N.L., R.M.S., A.A.B., A.A.-K.), Primary Health Care Corporation (M.G.A.-K.), and the Ministry of Public Health (H.E.A.-R., M.H.A.-T., R.B.) - all in Doha, Qatar; the Departments of Population Health Sciences (L.J.A.-R., H.C., A.A.B.) and Medicine (A.A.B.), Weill Cornell Medicine, Cornell University, New York; and the Wellcome-Wolfson Institute for Experimental Medicine, Queens University, Belfast, United Kingdom (P.C.)
| | - Gheyath K Nasrallah
- From the Infectious Disease Epidemiology Group (L.J.A.-R., H.C., S.A.) and the World Health Organization Collaborating Center for Disease Epidemiology Analytics on HIV/AIDS, Sexually Transmitted Infections, and Viral Hepatitis (L.J.A.-R., H.C., S.A.), Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar, Cornell University, Qatar Foundation-Education City, the Departments of Public Health (L.J.A.-R., H.F.A.-R.) and Biomedical Science (H.M.Y., H.A.A.-K., M.K.S., G.K.N.), College of Health Sciences, QU Health, the Mathematics Program, Department of Mathematics, Statistics, and Physics, College of Arts and Sciences (H.H.A.), the Biomedical Research Center, QU Health (H.M.Y., H.A.A.-K., M.K.S., P.C., G.K.N.), Qatar University, the Department of Pathology, Sidra Medicine (P.T., M.R.H.), Hamad Medical Corporation (P.C., Z.A.-K., E.A.-K., A.J., A.H.K., A.N.L., R.M.S., A.A.B., A.A.-K.), Primary Health Care Corporation (M.G.A.-K.), and the Ministry of Public Health (H.E.A.-R., M.H.A.-T., R.B.) - all in Doha, Qatar; the Departments of Population Health Sciences (L.J.A.-R., H.C., A.A.B.) and Medicine (A.A.B.), Weill Cornell Medicine, Cornell University, New York; and the Wellcome-Wolfson Institute for Experimental Medicine, Queens University, Belfast, United Kingdom (P.C.)
| | - Mohamed Ghaith Al-Kuwari
- From the Infectious Disease Epidemiology Group (L.J.A.-R., H.C., S.A.) and the World Health Organization Collaborating Center for Disease Epidemiology Analytics on HIV/AIDS, Sexually Transmitted Infections, and Viral Hepatitis (L.J.A.-R., H.C., S.A.), Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar, Cornell University, Qatar Foundation-Education City, the Departments of Public Health (L.J.A.-R., H.F.A.-R.) and Biomedical Science (H.M.Y., H.A.A.-K., M.K.S., G.K.N.), College of Health Sciences, QU Health, the Mathematics Program, Department of Mathematics, Statistics, and Physics, College of Arts and Sciences (H.H.A.), the Biomedical Research Center, QU Health (H.M.Y., H.A.A.-K., M.K.S., P.C., G.K.N.), Qatar University, the Department of Pathology, Sidra Medicine (P.T., M.R.H.), Hamad Medical Corporation (P.C., Z.A.-K., E.A.-K., A.J., A.H.K., A.N.L., R.M.S., A.A.B., A.A.-K.), Primary Health Care Corporation (M.G.A.-K.), and the Ministry of Public Health (H.E.A.-R., M.H.A.-T., R.B.) - all in Doha, Qatar; the Departments of Population Health Sciences (L.J.A.-R., H.C., A.A.B.) and Medicine (A.A.B.), Weill Cornell Medicine, Cornell University, New York; and the Wellcome-Wolfson Institute for Experimental Medicine, Queens University, Belfast, United Kingdom (P.C.)
| | - Adeel A Butt
- From the Infectious Disease Epidemiology Group (L.J.A.-R., H.C., S.A.) and the World Health Organization Collaborating Center for Disease Epidemiology Analytics on HIV/AIDS, Sexually Transmitted Infections, and Viral Hepatitis (L.J.A.-R., H.C., S.A.), Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar, Cornell University, Qatar Foundation-Education City, the Departments of Public Health (L.J.A.-R., H.F.A.-R.) and Biomedical Science (H.M.Y., H.A.A.-K., M.K.S., G.K.N.), College of Health Sciences, QU Health, the Mathematics Program, Department of Mathematics, Statistics, and Physics, College of Arts and Sciences (H.H.A.), the Biomedical Research Center, QU Health (H.M.Y., H.A.A.-K., M.K.S., P.C., G.K.N.), Qatar University, the Department of Pathology, Sidra Medicine (P.T., M.R.H.), Hamad Medical Corporation (P.C., Z.A.-K., E.A.-K., A.J., A.H.K., A.N.L., R.M.S., A.A.B., A.A.-K.), Primary Health Care Corporation (M.G.A.-K.), and the Ministry of Public Health (H.E.A.-R., M.H.A.-T., R.B.) - all in Doha, Qatar; the Departments of Population Health Sciences (L.J.A.-R., H.C., A.A.B.) and Medicine (A.A.B.), Weill Cornell Medicine, Cornell University, New York; and the Wellcome-Wolfson Institute for Experimental Medicine, Queens University, Belfast, United Kingdom (P.C.)
| | - Hamad Eid Al-Romaihi
- From the Infectious Disease Epidemiology Group (L.J.A.-R., H.C., S.A.) and the World Health Organization Collaborating Center for Disease Epidemiology Analytics on HIV/AIDS, Sexually Transmitted Infections, and Viral Hepatitis (L.J.A.-R., H.C., S.A.), Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar, Cornell University, Qatar Foundation-Education City, the Departments of Public Health (L.J.A.-R., H.F.A.-R.) and Biomedical Science (H.M.Y., H.A.A.-K., M.K.S., G.K.N.), College of Health Sciences, QU Health, the Mathematics Program, Department of Mathematics, Statistics, and Physics, College of Arts and Sciences (H.H.A.), the Biomedical Research Center, QU Health (H.M.Y., H.A.A.-K., M.K.S., P.C., G.K.N.), Qatar University, the Department of Pathology, Sidra Medicine (P.T., M.R.H.), Hamad Medical Corporation (P.C., Z.A.-K., E.A.-K., A.J., A.H.K., A.N.L., R.M.S., A.A.B., A.A.-K.), Primary Health Care Corporation (M.G.A.-K.), and the Ministry of Public Health (H.E.A.-R., M.H.A.-T., R.B.) - all in Doha, Qatar; the Departments of Population Health Sciences (L.J.A.-R., H.C., A.A.B.) and Medicine (A.A.B.), Weill Cornell Medicine, Cornell University, New York; and the Wellcome-Wolfson Institute for Experimental Medicine, Queens University, Belfast, United Kingdom (P.C.)
| | - Mohamed H Al-Thani
- From the Infectious Disease Epidemiology Group (L.J.A.-R., H.C., S.A.) and the World Health Organization Collaborating Center for Disease Epidemiology Analytics on HIV/AIDS, Sexually Transmitted Infections, and Viral Hepatitis (L.J.A.-R., H.C., S.A.), Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar, Cornell University, Qatar Foundation-Education City, the Departments of Public Health (L.J.A.-R., H.F.A.-R.) and Biomedical Science (H.M.Y., H.A.A.-K., M.K.S., G.K.N.), College of Health Sciences, QU Health, the Mathematics Program, Department of Mathematics, Statistics, and Physics, College of Arts and Sciences (H.H.A.), the Biomedical Research Center, QU Health (H.M.Y., H.A.A.-K., M.K.S., P.C., G.K.N.), Qatar University, the Department of Pathology, Sidra Medicine (P.T., M.R.H.), Hamad Medical Corporation (P.C., Z.A.-K., E.A.-K., A.J., A.H.K., A.N.L., R.M.S., A.A.B., A.A.-K.), Primary Health Care Corporation (M.G.A.-K.), and the Ministry of Public Health (H.E.A.-R., M.H.A.-T., R.B.) - all in Doha, Qatar; the Departments of Population Health Sciences (L.J.A.-R., H.C., A.A.B.) and Medicine (A.A.B.), Weill Cornell Medicine, Cornell University, New York; and the Wellcome-Wolfson Institute for Experimental Medicine, Queens University, Belfast, United Kingdom (P.C.)
| | - Abdullatif Al-Khal
- From the Infectious Disease Epidemiology Group (L.J.A.-R., H.C., S.A.) and the World Health Organization Collaborating Center for Disease Epidemiology Analytics on HIV/AIDS, Sexually Transmitted Infections, and Viral Hepatitis (L.J.A.-R., H.C., S.A.), Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar, Cornell University, Qatar Foundation-Education City, the Departments of Public Health (L.J.A.-R., H.F.A.-R.) and Biomedical Science (H.M.Y., H.A.A.-K., M.K.S., G.K.N.), College of Health Sciences, QU Health, the Mathematics Program, Department of Mathematics, Statistics, and Physics, College of Arts and Sciences (H.H.A.), the Biomedical Research Center, QU Health (H.M.Y., H.A.A.-K., M.K.S., P.C., G.K.N.), Qatar University, the Department of Pathology, Sidra Medicine (P.T., M.R.H.), Hamad Medical Corporation (P.C., Z.A.-K., E.A.-K., A.J., A.H.K., A.N.L., R.M.S., A.A.B., A.A.-K.), Primary Health Care Corporation (M.G.A.-K.), and the Ministry of Public Health (H.E.A.-R., M.H.A.-T., R.B.) - all in Doha, Qatar; the Departments of Population Health Sciences (L.J.A.-R., H.C., A.A.B.) and Medicine (A.A.B.), Weill Cornell Medicine, Cornell University, New York; and the Wellcome-Wolfson Institute for Experimental Medicine, Queens University, Belfast, United Kingdom (P.C.)
| | - Roberto Bertollini
- From the Infectious Disease Epidemiology Group (L.J.A.-R., H.C., S.A.) and the World Health Organization Collaborating Center for Disease Epidemiology Analytics on HIV/AIDS, Sexually Transmitted Infections, and Viral Hepatitis (L.J.A.-R., H.C., S.A.), Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar, Cornell University, Qatar Foundation-Education City, the Departments of Public Health (L.J.A.-R., H.F.A.-R.) and Biomedical Science (H.M.Y., H.A.A.-K., M.K.S., G.K.N.), College of Health Sciences, QU Health, the Mathematics Program, Department of Mathematics, Statistics, and Physics, College of Arts and Sciences (H.H.A.), the Biomedical Research Center, QU Health (H.M.Y., H.A.A.-K., M.K.S., P.C., G.K.N.), Qatar University, the Department of Pathology, Sidra Medicine (P.T., M.R.H.), Hamad Medical Corporation (P.C., Z.A.-K., E.A.-K., A.J., A.H.K., A.N.L., R.M.S., A.A.B., A.A.-K.), Primary Health Care Corporation (M.G.A.-K.), and the Ministry of Public Health (H.E.A.-R., M.H.A.-T., R.B.) - all in Doha, Qatar; the Departments of Population Health Sciences (L.J.A.-R., H.C., A.A.B.) and Medicine (A.A.B.), Weill Cornell Medicine, Cornell University, New York; and the Wellcome-Wolfson Institute for Experimental Medicine, Queens University, Belfast, United Kingdom (P.C.)
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21
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Lin Q, Deng B, Rui J, Guo SB, Hu Q, Chen Q, Tang C, Zhou L, Zhao Z, Lin S, Zhu Y, Yang M, Wang Y, Xu J, Liu X, Yang T, Li P, Li Z, Luo L, Liu W, Liu C, Huang J, Yao M, Nong M, Nong L, Wu J, Luo N, Chen S, Frutos R, Yang S, Li Q, Cui JA, Chen T. Epidemiological Characteristics and Transmissibility of Human Immunodeficiency Virus in Nanning City, China, 2001-2020. Front Public Health 2022; 9:689575. [PMID: 35004557 PMCID: PMC8733253 DOI: 10.3389/fpubh.2021.689575] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/01/2021] [Accepted: 11/11/2021] [Indexed: 11/30/2022] Open
Abstract
Background: Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) is a single-stranded RNA virus that can weaken the body's cellular and humoral immunity and is a serious disease without specific drug management and vaccine. This study aimed to evaluate the epidemiologic characteristics and transmissibility of HIV. Methods: Data on HIV follow-up were collected in Nanning City, Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous, China. An HIV transmission dynamics model was built to simulate the transmission of HIV and estimate its transmissibility by comparing the effective reproduction number (Reff) at different stages: the rapid growth period from January 2001 to March 2005, slow growth period from April 2005 to April 2011, and the plateau from May 2011 to December 2019 of HIV in Nanning City. Results: High-risk areas of HIV prevalence in Nanning City were mainly concentrated in suburbs. Furthermore, high-risk groups were those of older age, with lower income, and lower education levels. The Reff in each stage (rapid growth, slow growth, and plateau) were 2.74, 1.62, and 1.15, respectively, which suggests the transmissibility of HIV in Nanning City has declined and prevention and control measures have achieved significant results. Conclusion: Over the past 20 years, the HIV incidence in Nanning has remained at a relatively high level, but its development trend has been curbed. Transmissibility was reduced from 2.74 to 1.15. Therefore, the prevention and treatment measures in Nanning City have achieved significant improvement.
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Affiliation(s)
- Qian Lin
- Development Planning Office, Guangxi Medical University, Nanning, China
| | - Bin Deng
- Department of Science and Technology, School of Public Health, State Key Laboratory of Molecular Vaccinology and Molecular Diagnostics, Xiamen University, Xiamen, China
| | - Jia Rui
- Department of Science and Technology, School of Public Health, State Key Laboratory of Molecular Vaccinology and Molecular Diagnostics, Xiamen University, Xiamen, China
| | - Song-Bai Guo
- Department of Mathematics and Data Science, School of Science, Beijing University of Civil Engineering and Architecture, Beijing, China
| | - Qingqing Hu
- Division of Public Health, School of Medicine, University of Utah, 201 Presidents Circle, Salt Lake, UT, United States
| | - Qiuping Chen
- Laboratory Intertryp CIRAD/IRD, Université de Montpellier, Montpellier, France.,Department of Medical Insurance Office, Xiang'an Hospital of Xiamen University, Xiamen, China
| | - Chi Tang
- Division of Director's Office, Nanning Municipal Health Commission, Nanning, China
| | - Lina Zhou
- Department of Nephrology, The Second Hospital of Xiamen Medical College, Xiamen, China
| | - Zeyu Zhao
- Development Planning Office, Guangxi Medical University, Nanning, China.,Laboratory Intertryp CIRAD/IRD, Université de Montpellier, Montpellier, France
| | - Shengnan Lin
- Department of Science and Technology, School of Public Health, State Key Laboratory of Molecular Vaccinology and Molecular Diagnostics, Xiamen University, Xiamen, China
| | - Yuanzhao Zhu
- Department of Science and Technology, School of Public Health, State Key Laboratory of Molecular Vaccinology and Molecular Diagnostics, Xiamen University, Xiamen, China
| | - Meng Yang
- Department of Science and Technology, School of Public Health, State Key Laboratory of Molecular Vaccinology and Molecular Diagnostics, Xiamen University, Xiamen, China
| | - Yao Wang
- Department of Science and Technology, School of Public Health, State Key Laboratory of Molecular Vaccinology and Molecular Diagnostics, Xiamen University, Xiamen, China
| | - Jingwen Xu
- Department of Science and Technology, School of Public Health, State Key Laboratory of Molecular Vaccinology and Molecular Diagnostics, Xiamen University, Xiamen, China
| | - Xingchun Liu
- Department of Science and Technology, School of Public Health, State Key Laboratory of Molecular Vaccinology and Molecular Diagnostics, Xiamen University, Xiamen, China
| | - Tianlong Yang
- Department of Science and Technology, School of Public Health, State Key Laboratory of Molecular Vaccinology and Molecular Diagnostics, Xiamen University, Xiamen, China
| | - Peihua Li
- Department of Science and Technology, School of Public Health, State Key Laboratory of Molecular Vaccinology and Molecular Diagnostics, Xiamen University, Xiamen, China
| | - Zhuoyang Li
- Department of Science and Technology, School of Public Health, State Key Laboratory of Molecular Vaccinology and Molecular Diagnostics, Xiamen University, Xiamen, China
| | - Li Luo
- Department of Science and Technology, School of Public Health, State Key Laboratory of Molecular Vaccinology and Molecular Diagnostics, Xiamen University, Xiamen, China
| | - Weikang Liu
- Department of Science and Technology, School of Public Health, State Key Laboratory of Molecular Vaccinology and Molecular Diagnostics, Xiamen University, Xiamen, China
| | - Chan Liu
- Department of Science and Technology, School of Public Health, State Key Laboratory of Molecular Vaccinology and Molecular Diagnostics, Xiamen University, Xiamen, China
| | - Jiefeng Huang
- Department of Science and Technology, School of Public Health, State Key Laboratory of Molecular Vaccinology and Molecular Diagnostics, Xiamen University, Xiamen, China
| | - Min Yao
- Department of STD and AIDS Prevention and Treatment, Nanning Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Nanning, China
| | - Mengni Nong
- Department of STD and AIDS Prevention and Treatment, Nanning Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Nanning, China
| | - Liping Nong
- Department of STD and AIDS Prevention and Treatment, Nanning Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Nanning, China
| | - Jinglan Wu
- Department of STD and AIDS Prevention and Treatment, Nanning Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Nanning, China
| | - Na Luo
- Department of STD and AIDS Prevention and Treatment, Nanning Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Nanning, China
| | - Shihai Chen
- Division of Director's Office, Nanning Municipal Health Commission, Nanning, China
| | - Roger Frutos
- Department of Medical Insurance Office, Xiang'an Hospital of Xiamen University, Xiamen, China
| | - Shixiong Yang
- Department of STD and AIDS Prevention and Treatment, Nanning Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Nanning, China
| | - Qun Li
- Department of Health Emergency, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China
| | - Jing-An Cui
- Department of Mathematics and Data Science, School of Science, Beijing University of Civil Engineering and Architecture, Beijing, China
| | - Tianmu Chen
- Department of Science and Technology, School of Public Health, State Key Laboratory of Molecular Vaccinology and Molecular Diagnostics, Xiamen University, Xiamen, China
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22
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Makhoul M, Abu-Hijleh F, Ayoub HH, Seedat S, Chemaitelly H, Abu-Raddad LJ. Modeling the population-level impact of treatment on COVID-19 disease and SARS-CoV-2 transmission. Epidemics 2022; 39:100567. [PMID: 35468531 PMCID: PMC9013049 DOI: 10.1016/j.epidem.2022.100567] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/21/2021] [Revised: 02/06/2022] [Accepted: 04/12/2022] [Indexed: 11/18/2022] Open
Abstract
Different COVID-19 treatment candidates are under development, and some are becoming available including two promising drugs from Merck and Pfizer. This study provides conceptual frameworks for the effects of three types of treatments, both therapeutic and prophylactic, and to investigate their population-level impact, to inform drug development, licensure, decision-making, and implementation. Different drug efficacies were assessed using an age-structured mathematical model describing SARS-CoV-2 transmission and disease progression, with application to the United States as an illustrative example. Severe and critical infection treatment reduces progression to COVID-19 severe and critical disease and death with small number of treatments needed to avert one disease or death. Post-exposure prophylaxis treatment had a large impact on flattening the epidemic curve, with large reductions in infection, disease, and death, but the impact was strongly age dependent. Pre-exposure prophylaxis treatment had the best impact and effectiveness, with immense reductions in infection, disease, and death, driven by the robust control of infection transmission. Effectiveness of both pre-exposure and post-exposure prophylaxis treatments was disproportionally larger when a larger segment of the population was targeted than a specific age group. Additional downstream potential effects of treatment, beyond the primary outcome, enhance the population-level impact of both treatments. COVID-19 treatments are an important modality in controlling SARS-CoV-2 disease burden. Different types of treatment act synergistically for a larger impact, for these treatments and vaccination.
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Affiliation(s)
- Monia Makhoul
- Infectious Disease Epidemiology Group, Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar, Cornell University, Doha 24144, Qatar; World Health Organization Collaborating Centre for Disease Epidemiology Analytics on HIV/AIDS, Sexually Transmitted Infections, and Viral Hepatitis, Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar, Cornell University, Qatar-Foundation-Education City, Doha 24144, Qatar; Department of Population Health Sciences, Weill Cornell Medicine, Cornell University, New York City, NY 10021, USA
| | - Farah Abu-Hijleh
- Department of Public Health, College of Health Sciences, Academic Quality Affairs Office, QU Health, Qatar University, Doha 2713, Qatar
| | - Houssein H Ayoub
- Mathematics Program, Department of Mathematics, Statistics and Physics, College of Arts and Sciences, Qatar University, Doha 2713, Qatar
| | - Shaheen Seedat
- Infectious Disease Epidemiology Group, Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar, Cornell University, Doha 24144, Qatar; World Health Organization Collaborating Centre for Disease Epidemiology Analytics on HIV/AIDS, Sexually Transmitted Infections, and Viral Hepatitis, Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar, Cornell University, Qatar-Foundation-Education City, Doha 24144, Qatar; Department of Population Health Sciences, Weill Cornell Medicine, Cornell University, New York City, NY 10021, USA
| | - Hiam Chemaitelly
- Infectious Disease Epidemiology Group, Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar, Cornell University, Doha 24144, Qatar; World Health Organization Collaborating Centre for Disease Epidemiology Analytics on HIV/AIDS, Sexually Transmitted Infections, and Viral Hepatitis, Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar, Cornell University, Qatar-Foundation-Education City, Doha 24144, Qatar; Department of Population Health Sciences, Weill Cornell Medicine, Cornell University, New York City, NY 10021, USA
| | - Laith J Abu-Raddad
- Infectious Disease Epidemiology Group, Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar, Cornell University, Doha 24144, Qatar; World Health Organization Collaborating Centre for Disease Epidemiology Analytics on HIV/AIDS, Sexually Transmitted Infections, and Viral Hepatitis, Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar, Cornell University, Qatar-Foundation-Education City, Doha 24144, Qatar; Department of Population Health Sciences, Weill Cornell Medicine, Cornell University, New York City, NY 10021, USA.
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23
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Bsat R, Chemaitelly H, Coyle P, Tang P, Hasan MR, Al Kanaani Z, Al Kuwari E, Butt AA, Jeremijenko A, Kaleeckal AH, Latif AN, Shaik RM, Nasrallah GK, Benslimane FM, Al Khatib HA, Yassine HM, Al Kuwari MG, Al Romaihi HE, Al-Thani MH, Al Khal A, Bertollini R, Abu-Raddad LJ, Ayoub HH. Characterizing the effective reproduction number during the COVID-19 pandemic: Insights from Qatar’s experience. J Glob Health 2022; 12:05004. [PMID: 35136602 PMCID: PMC8819337 DOI: 10.7189/jogh.12.05004] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/19/2022] Open
Abstract
Background The effective reproduction number, Rt, is a tool to track and understand pandemic dynamics. This investigation of Rt estimations was conducted to guide the national COVID-19 response in Qatar, from the onset of the pandemic until August 18, 2021. Methods Real-time “empirical” RtEmpirical was estimated using five methods, including the Robert Koch Institute, Cislaghi, Systrom-Bettencourt and Ribeiro, Wallinga and Teunis, and Cori et al. methods. Rt was also estimated using a transmission dynamics model (RtModel-based). Uncertainty and sensitivity analyses were conducted. Correlations between different Rt estimates were assessed by calculating correlation coefficients, and agreements between these estimates were assessed through Bland-Altman plots. Results RtEmpirical captured the evolution of the pandemic through three waves, public health response landmarks, effects of major social events, transient fluctuations coinciding with significant clusters of infection, and introduction and expansion of the Alpha (B.1.1.7) variant. The various estimation methods produced consistent and overall comparable RtEmpirical estimates with generally large correlation coefficients. The Wallinga and Teunis method was the fastest at detecting changes in pandemic dynamics. RtEmpirical estimates were consistent whether using time series of symptomatic PCR-confirmed cases, all PCR-confirmed cases, acute-care hospital admissions, or ICU-care hospital admissions, to proxy trends in true infection incidence. RtModel-based correlated strongly with RtEmpirical and provided an average RtEmpirical. Conclusions Rt estimations were robust and generated consistent results regardless of the data source or the method of estimation. Findings affirmed an influential role for Rt estimations in guiding national responses to the COVID-19 pandemic, even in resource-limited settings.
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Affiliation(s)
- Raghid Bsat
- Mathematics Program, Department of Mathematics, Statistics, and Physics, College of Arts and Sciences, Qatar University, Doha, Qatar
| | - Hiam Chemaitelly
- Infectious Disease Epidemiology Group, Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar, Cornell University, Doha, Qatar
- World Health Organization Collaborating Centre for Disease Epidemiology Analytics on HIV/AIDS, Sexually Transmitted Infections, and Viral Hepatitis, Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar, Cornell University, Qatar Foundation – Education City, Doha, Qatar
| | - Peter Coyle
- Hamad Medical Corporation, Doha, Qatar
- Biomedical Research Center, Member of QU Health, Qatar University, Doha, Qatar
- Wellcome-Wolfson Institute for Experimental Medicine, Queens University, Belfast, United Kingdom
| | - Patrick Tang
- Department of Pathology, Sidra Medicine, Doha, Qatar
| | | | | | | | - Adeel A Butt
- Hamad Medical Corporation, Doha, Qatar
- Department of Population Health Sciences, Weill Cornell Medicine, Cornell University, New York, New York, USA
| | | | | | | | | | - Gheyath K Nasrallah
- Biomedical Research Center, Member of QU Health, Qatar University, Doha, Qatar
- Department of Biomedical Science, College of Health Sciences, Member of QU Health, Qatar University, Doha, Qatar
| | - Fatiha M Benslimane
- Biomedical Research Center, Member of QU Health, Qatar University, Doha, Qatar
- Department of Biomedical Science, College of Health Sciences, Member of QU Health, Qatar University, Doha, Qatar
| | - Hebah A Al Khatib
- Biomedical Research Center, Member of QU Health, Qatar University, Doha, Qatar
- Department of Biomedical Science, College of Health Sciences, Member of QU Health, Qatar University, Doha, Qatar
| | - Hadi M Yassine
- Biomedical Research Center, Member of QU Health, Qatar University, Doha, Qatar
- Department of Biomedical Science, College of Health Sciences, Member of QU Health, Qatar University, Doha, Qatar
| | | | | | | | | | | | - Laith J Abu-Raddad
- Infectious Disease Epidemiology Group, Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar, Cornell University, Doha, Qatar
- World Health Organization Collaborating Centre for Disease Epidemiology Analytics on HIV/AIDS, Sexually Transmitted Infections, and Viral Hepatitis, Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar, Cornell University, Qatar Foundation – Education City, Doha, Qatar
- Department of Public Health, College of Health Sciences, Member of QU Health, Qatar University, Doha, Qatar
- Department of Population Health Sciences, Weill Cornell Medicine, Cornell University, New York, New York, USA
| | - Houssein H Ayoub
- Mathematics Program, Department of Mathematics, Statistics, and Physics, College of Arts and Sciences, Qatar University, Doha, Qatar
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24
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Coyle PV, El Kahlout RA, Dargham SR, Chemaitelly H, Kacem MABH, Al-Mawlawi NHA, Gilliani I, Younes N, Al Kanaani Z, Al Khal A, Al Kuwari E, Jeremijenko A, Kaleeckal AH, Latif AN, Shaik RM, Rahim HFA, Nasrallah GK, Yassine HM, Al Kuwari MG, Al Romaihi HE, Tang P, Bertollini R, Al-Thani MH, Abu-Raddad LJ. Assessing the performance of a serological point-of-care test in measuring detectable antibodies against SARS-CoV-2. PLoS One 2022; 17:e0262897. [PMID: 35100295 PMCID: PMC8803198 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0262897] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/02/2021] [Accepted: 01/09/2022] [Indexed: 11/21/2022] Open
Abstract
This study investigated the performance of a rapid point-of-care antibody test, the BioMedomics COVID-19 IgM/IgG Rapid Test, in comparison with a high-quality, validated, laboratory-based platform, the Roche Elecsys Anti-SARS-CoV-2 assay. Serological testing was conducted on 709 individuals. Concordance metrics were estimated. Logistic regression was used to assess associations with seropositivity. SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence was 63.5% (450/709; 95% CI 59.8%-67.0%) using the BioMedomics assay and 71.9% (510/709; 95% CI 68.5%-75.2%) using the Elecsys assay. There were 60 discordant results between the two assays, all of which were seropositive in the Elecsys assay, but seronegative in the BioMedomics assay. Overall, positive, and negative percent agreements between the two assays were 91.5% (95% CI 89.2%-93.5%), 88.2% (95% CI 85.1%-90.9%), and 100% (95% CI 98.2%-100%), respectively, with a Cohen's kappa of 0.81 (95% CI 0.78-0.84). Excluding specimens with lower (Elecsys) antibody titers, the agreement improved with overall, positive, and negative percent concordance of 94.4% (95% CI 92.3%-96.1%), 91.8% (95% CI 88.8%-94.3%), and 100% (95% CI 98.2%-100%), respectively, and a Cohen's kappa of 0.88 (95% CI 0.85-0.90). Logistic regression confirmed better agreement with higher antibody titers. The BioMedomics COVID-19 IgM/IgG Rapid Test demonstrated good performance in measuring detectable antibodies against SARS-CoV-2, supporting the utility of such rapid point-of-care serological testing to guide the public health responses and vaccine prioritization.
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Affiliation(s)
- Peter V. Coyle
- Hamad Medical Corporation, Doha, Qatar
- Biomedical Research Center, Qatar University, Doha, Qatar
- Wellcome-Wolfson Institute for Experimental Medicine, Queens University, Belfast, United Kingdom
| | | | - Soha R. Dargham
- Infectious Disease Epidemiology Group, Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar, Cornell University, Qatar Foundation – Education City, Doha, Qatar
- World Health Organization Collaborating Centre for Disease Epidemiology Analytics on HIV/AIDS, Sexually Transmitted Infections, and Viral Hepatitis, Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar, Cornell University, Qatar Foundation – Education City, Doha, Qatar
| | - Hiam Chemaitelly
- Infectious Disease Epidemiology Group, Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar, Cornell University, Qatar Foundation – Education City, Doha, Qatar
- World Health Organization Collaborating Centre for Disease Epidemiology Analytics on HIV/AIDS, Sexually Transmitted Infections, and Viral Hepatitis, Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar, Cornell University, Qatar Foundation – Education City, Doha, Qatar
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | - Gheyath K. Nasrallah
- Biomedical Research Center, Qatar University, Doha, Qatar
- Department of Biomedical Science, College of Health Sciences, Member of QU Health, Qatar University, Doha, Qatar
| | - Hadi M. Yassine
- Biomedical Research Center, Qatar University, Doha, Qatar
- Department of Biomedical Science, College of Health Sciences, Member of QU Health, Qatar University, Doha, Qatar
| | | | | | - Patrick Tang
- Department of Pathology, Sidra Medicine, Doha, Qatar
| | | | | | - Laith J. Abu-Raddad
- Infectious Disease Epidemiology Group, Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar, Cornell University, Qatar Foundation – Education City, Doha, Qatar
- World Health Organization Collaborating Centre for Disease Epidemiology Analytics on HIV/AIDS, Sexually Transmitted Infections, and Viral Hepatitis, Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar, Cornell University, Qatar Foundation – Education City, Doha, Qatar
- Department of Population Health Sciences, Weill Cornell Medicine, Cornell University, New York, New York, United States of America
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25
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Abu-Raddad LJ, Chemaitelly H, Ayoub HH, Tang P, Coyle P, Hasan MR, Yassine HM, Benslimane FM, Al-Khatib HA, Al-Kanaani Z, Al-Kuwari E, Jeremijenko A, Kaleeckal AH, Latif AN, Shaik RM, Abdul-Rahim HF, Nasrallah GK, Al-Kuwari MG, Butt AA, Al-Romaihi HE, Al-Khal A, Al-Thani MH, Bertollini R. Relative infectiousness of SARS-CoV-2 vaccine breakthrough infections, reinfections, and primary infections. Nat Commun 2022; 13:532. [PMID: 35087035 PMCID: PMC8795418 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-022-28199-7] [Citation(s) in RCA: 36] [Impact Index Per Article: 18.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/27/2021] [Accepted: 01/06/2022] [Indexed: 12/18/2022] Open
Abstract
SARS-CoV-2 breakthrough infections in vaccinated individuals and in those who had a prior infection have been observed globally, but the transmission potential of these infections is unknown. The RT-qPCR cycle threshold (Ct) value is inversely correlated with viral load and culturable virus. Here, we investigate differences in RT-qPCR Ct values across Qatar's national cohorts of primary infections, reinfections, BNT162b2 (Pfizer-BioNTech) breakthrough infections, and mRNA-1273 (Moderna) breakthrough infections. Our matched-cohort analyses of the randomly diagnosed infections show higher mean Ct value in all cohorts of breakthrough infections compared to the cohort of primary infections in unvaccinated individuals. The Ct value is 1.3 (95% CI: 0.9-1.8) cycles higher for BNT162b2 breakthrough infections, 3.2 (95% CI: 1.9-4.5) cycles higher for mRNA-1273 breakthrough infections, and 4.0 (95% CI: 3.5-4.5) cycles higher for reinfections in unvaccinated individuals. Since Ct value correlates inversely with SARS-CoV-2 infectiousness, these differences imply that vaccine breakthrough infections and reinfections are less infectious than primary infections in unvaccinated individuals. Public health benefits of vaccination may have been underestimated, as COVID-19 vaccines not only protect against acquisition of infection, but also appear to protect against transmission of infection.
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Affiliation(s)
- Laith J Abu-Raddad
- Infectious Disease Epidemiology Group, Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar, Cornell University, Doha, Qatar.
- World Health Organization Collaborating Centre for Disease Epidemiology Analytics on HIV/AIDS, Sexually Transmitted Infections, and Viral Hepatitis, Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar, Cornell University, Qatar Foundation - Education City, Doha, Qatar.
- Department of Population Health Sciences, Weill Cornell Medicine, Cornell University, New York, NY, USA.
- Department of Public Health, College of Health Sciences, QU Health, Qatar University, Doha, Qatar.
| | - Hiam Chemaitelly
- Infectious Disease Epidemiology Group, Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar, Cornell University, Doha, Qatar
- World Health Organization Collaborating Centre for Disease Epidemiology Analytics on HIV/AIDS, Sexually Transmitted Infections, and Viral Hepatitis, Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar, Cornell University, Qatar Foundation - Education City, Doha, Qatar
- Department of Population Health Sciences, Weill Cornell Medicine, Cornell University, New York, NY, USA
| | - Houssein H Ayoub
- Mathematics Program, Department of Mathematics, Statistics, and Physics, College of Arts and Sciences, Qatar University, Doha, Qatar
| | - Patrick Tang
- Department of Pathology, Sidra Medicine, Doha, Qatar
| | - Peter Coyle
- Hamad Medical Corporation, Doha, Qatar
- Biomedical Research Center, Member of QU Health, Qatar University, Doha, Qatar
- Wellcome-Wolfson Institute for Experimental Medicine, Queens University, Belfast, UK
| | | | - Hadi M Yassine
- Biomedical Research Center, Member of QU Health, Qatar University, Doha, Qatar
- Department of Biomedical Science, College of Health Sciences, Member of QU Health, Qatar University, Doha, Qatar
| | - Fatiha M Benslimane
- Biomedical Research Center, Member of QU Health, Qatar University, Doha, Qatar
- Department of Biomedical Science, College of Health Sciences, Member of QU Health, Qatar University, Doha, Qatar
| | - Hebah A Al-Khatib
- Biomedical Research Center, Member of QU Health, Qatar University, Doha, Qatar
- Department of Biomedical Science, College of Health Sciences, Member of QU Health, Qatar University, Doha, Qatar
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | - Gheyath K Nasrallah
- Biomedical Research Center, Member of QU Health, Qatar University, Doha, Qatar
- Department of Biomedical Science, College of Health Sciences, Member of QU Health, Qatar University, Doha, Qatar
| | | | - Adeel A Butt
- Department of Population Health Sciences, Weill Cornell Medicine, Cornell University, New York, NY, USA
- Hamad Medical Corporation, Doha, Qatar
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26
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Benslimane FM, Al Khatib HA, Al-Jamal O, Albatesh D, Boughattas S, Ahmed AA, Bensaad M, Younuskunju S, Mohamoud YA, Al Badr M, Mohamed AA, El-Kahlout RA, Al-Hamad T, Elgakhlab D, Al-Kuwari FH, Saad C, Jeremijenko A, Al-Khal A, Al-Maslamani MA, Bertollini R, Al-Kuwari EA, Al-Romaihi HE, Al-Marri S, Al-Thani M, Badji RM, Mbarek H, Al-Sarraj Y, Malek JA, Ismail SI, Abu-Raddad LJ, Coyle PV, Thani AAA, Yassine HM. One Year of SARS-CoV-2: Genomic Characterization of COVID-19 Outbreak in Qatar. Front Cell Infect Microbiol 2021; 11:768883. [PMID: 34869069 PMCID: PMC8637114 DOI: 10.3389/fcimb.2021.768883] [Citation(s) in RCA: 22] [Impact Index Per Article: 7.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/01/2021] [Accepted: 10/19/2021] [Indexed: 01/03/2023] Open
Abstract
Qatar, a country with a strong health system and a diverse population consisting mainly of expatriate residents, has experienced two large waves of COVID-19 outbreak. In this study, we report on 2634 SARS-CoV-2 whole-genome sequences from infected patients in Qatar between March-2020 and March-2021, representing 1.5% of all positive cases in this period. Despite the restrictions on international travel, the viruses sampled from the populace of Qatar mirrored nearly the entire global population’s genomic diversity with nine predominant viral lineages that were sustained by local transmission chains and the emergence of mutations that are likely to have originated in Qatar. We reported an increased number of mutations and deletions in B.1.1.7 and B.1.351 lineages in a short period. These findings raise the imperative need to continue the ongoing genomic surveillance that has been an integral part of the national response to monitor the SARS-CoV-2 profile and re-emergence in Qatar.
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Affiliation(s)
| | | | - Ola Al-Jamal
- Biomedical Research Center, Qatar University, Doha, Qatar
| | - Dana Albatesh
- Biomedical Research Center, Qatar University, Doha, Qatar
| | | | - Ayeda A Ahmed
- Genomics Laboratory, Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar, Cornell University, Doha, Qatar
| | - Meryem Bensaad
- Genomics Laboratory, Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar, Cornell University, Doha, Qatar
| | - Shameem Younuskunju
- Genomics Laboratory, Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar, Cornell University, Doha, Qatar
| | - Yasmin A Mohamoud
- Genomics Laboratory, Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar, Cornell University, Doha, Qatar
| | - Mashael Al Badr
- National Reference Laboratory Ministry of Public Health, Doha, Qatar
| | - Abdalla A Mohamed
- National Reference Laboratory Ministry of Public Health, Doha, Qatar
| | | | | | | | - Fatima H Al-Kuwari
- Qatar Genome Program, Qatar Foundation Research, Development and Innovation, Qatar Foundation, Doha, Qatar
| | - Chadi Saad
- Qatar Genome Program, Qatar Foundation Research, Development and Innovation, Qatar Foundation, Doha, Qatar
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | - Radja M Badji
- Qatar Genome Program, Qatar Foundation Research, Development and Innovation, Qatar Foundation, Doha, Qatar
| | - Hamdi Mbarek
- Qatar Genome Program, Qatar Foundation Research, Development and Innovation, Qatar Foundation, Doha, Qatar
| | - Yasser Al-Sarraj
- Qatar Genome Program, Qatar Foundation Research, Development and Innovation, Qatar Foundation, Doha, Qatar
| | - Joel A Malek
- Genomics Laboratory, Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar, Cornell University, Doha, Qatar.,Department of Genetic Medicine, Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar, Cornell University, Doha, Qatar
| | - Said I Ismail
- Qatar Genome Program, Qatar Foundation Research, Development and Innovation, Qatar Foundation, Doha, Qatar
| | - Laith J Abu-Raddad
- Infectious Disease Epidemiology Group, Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar, Cornell University, Doha, Qatar.,Department of Population Health Sciences, Weill Cornell Medicine, Cornell University, New York, NY, United States.,World Health Organization Collaborating Centre for Disease Epidemiology Analytics on HIV/AIDS, Sexually Transmitted Infections, and Viral Hepatitis, Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar, Doha, Qatar
| | | | | | - Hadi M Yassine
- Biomedical Research Center, Qatar University, Doha, Qatar.,Department of Biomedical Science, College of Health Sciences, QU Health, Qatar University, Doha, Qatar
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27
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Abu-Raddad LJ, Chemaitelly H, Ayoub HH, Coyle P, Malek JA, Ahmed AA, Mohamoud YA, Younuskunju S, Tang P, Al Kanaani Z, Al Kuwari E, Butt AA, Jeremijenko A, Kaleeckal AH, Latif AN, Shaik RM, Abdul Rahim HF, Nasrallah GK, Yassine HM, Al Kuwari MG, Al Romaihi HE, Al-Thani MH, Al Khal A, Bertollini R. Introduction and expansion of the SARS-CoV-2 B.1.1.7 variant and reinfections in Qatar: A nationally representative cohort study. PLoS Med 2021; 18:e1003879. [PMID: 34914711 PMCID: PMC8726501 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pmed.1003879] [Citation(s) in RCA: 28] [Impact Index Per Article: 9.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/15/2021] [Revised: 01/04/2022] [Accepted: 11/30/2021] [Indexed: 11/24/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND The epidemiology of the SARS-CoV-2 B.1.1.7 (or Alpha) variant is insufficiently understood. This study's objective was to describe the introduction and expansion of this variant in Qatar and to estimate the efficacy of natural infection against reinfection with this variant. METHODS AND FINDINGS Reinfections with the B.1.1.7 variant and variants of unknown status were investigated in a national cohort of 158,608 individuals with prior PCR-confirmed infections and a national cohort of 42,848 antibody-positive individuals. Infections with B.1.1.7 and variants of unknown status were also investigated in a national comparator cohort of 132,701 antibody-negative individuals. B.1.1.7 was first identified in Qatar on 25 December 2020. Sudden, large B.1.1.7 epidemic expansion was observed starting on 18 January 2021, triggering the onset of epidemic's second wave, 7 months after the first wave. B.1.1.7 was about 60% more infectious than the original (wild-type) circulating variants. Among persons with a prior PCR-confirmed infection, the efficacy of natural infection against reinfection was estimated to be 97.5% (95% CI: 95.7% to 98.6%) for B.1.1.7 and 92.2% (95% CI: 90.6% to 93.5%) for variants of unknown status. Among antibody-positive persons, the efficacy of natural infection against reinfection was estimated to be 97.0% (95% CI: 92.5% to 98.7%) for B.1.1.7 and 94.2% (95% CI: 91.8% to 96.0%) for variants of unknown status. A main limitation of this study is assessment of reinfections based on documented PCR-confirmed reinfections, but other reinfections could have occurred and gone undocumented. CONCLUSIONS In this study, we observed that introduction of B.1.1.7 into a naïve population can create a major epidemic wave, but natural immunity in those previously infected was strongly associated with limited incidence of reinfection by B.1.1.7 or other variants.
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Affiliation(s)
- Laith J. Abu-Raddad
- Infectious Disease Epidemiology Group, Weill Cornell Medicine–Qatar, Cornell University, Doha, Qatar
- World Health Organization Collaborating Centre for Disease Epidemiology Analytics on HIV/AIDS, Sexually Transmitted Infections, and Viral Hepatitis, Weill Cornell Medicine–Qatar, Cornell University, Doha, Qatar
- Department of Population Health Sciences, Weill Cornell Medicine, Cornell University, New York, New York, United States of America
| | - Hiam Chemaitelly
- Infectious Disease Epidemiology Group, Weill Cornell Medicine–Qatar, Cornell University, Doha, Qatar
- World Health Organization Collaborating Centre for Disease Epidemiology Analytics on HIV/AIDS, Sexually Transmitted Infections, and Viral Hepatitis, Weill Cornell Medicine–Qatar, Cornell University, Doha, Qatar
| | - Houssein H. Ayoub
- Mathematics Program, Department of Mathematics, Statistics, and Physics, College of Arts and Sciences, Qatar University, Doha, Qatar
| | - Peter Coyle
- Hamad Medical Corporation, Doha, Qatar
- Biomedical Research Center, QU Health, Qatar University, Doha, Qatar
- Wellcome–Wolfson Institute for Experimental Medicine, Queens University, Belfast, United Kingdom
| | - Joel A. Malek
- Genomics Laboratory, Weill Cornell Medicine–Qatar, Cornell University, Doha, Qatar
- Department of Genetic Medicine, Weill Cornell Medicine–Qatar, Cornell University, Doha, Qatar
| | - Ayeda A. Ahmed
- Genomics Laboratory, Weill Cornell Medicine–Qatar, Cornell University, Doha, Qatar
| | - Yasmin A. Mohamoud
- Genomics Laboratory, Weill Cornell Medicine–Qatar, Cornell University, Doha, Qatar
| | - Shameem Younuskunju
- Genomics Laboratory, Weill Cornell Medicine–Qatar, Cornell University, Doha, Qatar
| | - Patrick Tang
- Department of Pathology, Sidra Medicine, Doha, Qatar
| | | | | | - Adeel A. Butt
- Department of Population Health Sciences, Weill Cornell Medicine, Cornell University, New York, New York, United States of America
- Hamad Medical Corporation, Doha, Qatar
| | | | | | | | | | | | - Gheyath K. Nasrallah
- Biomedical Research Center, QU Health, Qatar University, Doha, Qatar
- Department of Biomedical Science, College of Health Sciences, QU Health, Qatar University, Doha, Qatar
| | - Hadi M. Yassine
- Biomedical Research Center, QU Health, Qatar University, Doha, Qatar
- Department of Biomedical Science, College of Health Sciences, QU Health, Qatar University, Doha, Qatar
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28
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Abu-Raddad LJ, Chemaitelly H, Ayoub HH, Yassine HM, Benslimane FM, Al Khatib HA, Tang P, Hasan MR, Coyle P, Al Kanaani Z, Al Kuwari E, Jeremijenko A, Kaleeckal AH, Latif AN, Shaik RM, Abdul Rahim HF, Nasrallah GK, Al Kuwari MG, Butt AA, Al Romaihi HE, Al-Thani MH, Al Khal A, Bertollini R. Association of Prior SARS-CoV-2 Infection With Risk of Breakthrough Infection Following mRNA Vaccination in Qatar. JAMA 2021; 326:1930-1939. [PMID: 34724027 PMCID: PMC8561432 DOI: 10.1001/jama.2021.19623] [Citation(s) in RCA: 103] [Impact Index Per Article: 34.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/29/2021] [Accepted: 10/15/2021] [Indexed: 12/19/2022]
Abstract
Importance The effect of prior SARS-CoV-2 infection on vaccine protection remains poorly understood. Objective To assess protection from SARS-CoV-2 breakthrough infection after mRNA vaccination among persons with vs without prior SARS-CoV-2 infection. Design, Setting, and Participants Matched-cohort studies in Qatar for the BNT162b2 (Pfizer-BioNTech) and mRNA-1273 (Moderna) vaccines. A total of 1 531 736 individuals vaccinated with either vaccine between December 21, 2020, and September 19, 2021, were followed up beginning 14 days after receiving the second dose until September 19, 2021. Exposures Prior SARS-CoV-2 infection and COVID-19 vaccination. Main Outcomes and Measures Incident SARS-CoV-2 infection, defined as a polymerase chain reaction (PCR)-positive nasopharyngeal swab regardless of reason for PCR testing or presence of symptoms. Cumulative incidence was calculated using the Kaplan-Meier estimator method. Results The BNT162b2-vaccinated cohort comprised 99 226 individuals with and 290 432 matched individuals without prior PCR-confirmed infection (median age, 37 years; 68% male). The mRNA-1273-vaccinated cohort comprised 58 096 individuals with and 169 514 matched individuals without prior PCR-confirmed infection (median age, 36 years; 73% male). Among BNT162b2-vaccinated persons, 159 reinfections occurred in those with and 2509 in those without prior infection 14 days or more after dose 2. Among mRNA-1273-vaccinated persons, 43 reinfections occurred in those with and 368 infections in those without prior infection. Cumulative infection incidence among BNT162b2-vaccinated individuals was an estimated 0.15% (95% CI, 0.12%-0.18%) in those with and 0.83% (95% CI, 0.79%-0.87%) in those without prior infection at 120 days of follow-up (adjusted hazard ratio for breakthrough infection with prior infection, 0.18 [95% CI, 0.15-0.21]; P < .001). Cumulative infection incidence among mRNA-1273-vaccinated individuals was an estimated 0.11% (95% CI, 0.08%-0.15%) in those with and 0.35% (95% CI, 0.32%-0.40%) in those without prior infection at 120 days of follow-up (adjusted hazard ratio, 0.35 [95% CI, 0.25-0.48]; P < .001). Vaccinated individuals with prior infection 6 months or more before dose 1 had statistically significantly lower risk for breakthrough infection than those vaccinated less than 6 months before dose 1 (adjusted hazard ratio, 0.62 [95% CI, 0.42-0.92]; P = .02 for BNT162b2 and 0.40 [95% CI, 0.18-0.91]; P = .03 for mRNA-1273 vaccination). Conclusions and Relevance Prior SARS-CoV-2 infection was associated with a statistically significantly lower risk for breakthrough infection among individuals receiving the BNT162b2 or mRNA-1273 vaccines in Qatar between December 21, 2020, and September 19, 2021. The observational study design precludes direct comparisons of infection risk between the 2 vaccines.
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Affiliation(s)
- Laith J. Abu-Raddad
- Infectious Disease Epidemiology Group, Weill Cornell Medicine–Qatar, Cornell University, Doha, Qatar
- World Health Organization Collaborating Centre for Disease Epidemiology Analytics on HIV/AIDS, Sexually Transmitted Infections, and Viral Hepatitis, Weill Cornell Medicine–Qatar, Cornell University, Qatar Foundation–Education City, Doha, Qatar
- Department of Population Health Sciences, Weill Cornell Medicine, Cornell University, New York, New York
- Department of Public Health, College of Health Sciences, Member of QU Health, Qatar University, Doha, Qatar
| | - Hiam Chemaitelly
- Infectious Disease Epidemiology Group, Weill Cornell Medicine–Qatar, Cornell University, Doha, Qatar
- World Health Organization Collaborating Centre for Disease Epidemiology Analytics on HIV/AIDS, Sexually Transmitted Infections, and Viral Hepatitis, Weill Cornell Medicine–Qatar, Cornell University, Qatar Foundation–Education City, Doha, Qatar
| | - Houssein H. Ayoub
- Mathematics Program, Department of Mathematics, Statistics, and Physics, College of Arts and Sciences, Qatar University, Doha, Qatar
| | - Hadi M. Yassine
- Biomedical Research Center, Member of QU Health, Qatar University, Doha, Qatar
- Department of Biomedical Science, College of Health Sciences, Member of QU Health, Qatar University, Doha, Qatar
| | - Fatiha M. Benslimane
- Biomedical Research Center, Member of QU Health, Qatar University, Doha, Qatar
- Department of Biomedical Science, College of Health Sciences, Member of QU Health, Qatar University, Doha, Qatar
| | - Hebah A. Al Khatib
- Biomedical Research Center, Member of QU Health, Qatar University, Doha, Qatar
- Department of Biomedical Science, College of Health Sciences, Member of QU Health, Qatar University, Doha, Qatar
| | - Patrick Tang
- Department of Pathology, Sidra Medicine, Doha, Qatar
| | | | - Peter Coyle
- Biomedical Research Center, Member of QU Health, Qatar University, Doha, Qatar
- Hamad Medical Corporation, Doha, Qatar
- Wellcome-Wolfson Institute for Experimental Medicine, Queens University, Belfast, United Kingdom
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | - Gheyath K. Nasrallah
- Biomedical Research Center, Member of QU Health, Qatar University, Doha, Qatar
- Department of Biomedical Science, College of Health Sciences, Member of QU Health, Qatar University, Doha, Qatar
| | | | - Adeel A. Butt
- Department of Population Health Sciences, Weill Cornell Medicine, Cornell University, New York, New York
- Hamad Medical Corporation, Doha, Qatar
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Pathan SA, Moinudheen J, Simon K, Thomas SH. COVID-19 cases presenting to the Emergency Department predict Qatar National COVID-19 trends and numbers. Qatar Med J 2021; 2021:56. [PMID: 34733709 PMCID: PMC8542101 DOI: 10.5339/qmj.2021.56] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/18/2021] [Accepted: 09/27/2021] [Indexed: 11/03/2022] Open
Abstract
In this short communication, we summarized the analyses, models, and interpretations of the corporate department of emergency medicine's (CDEM) COVID-19 numbers and their relationship to predict the national COVID-19 trends and numbers in Qatar. Data included in this analysis were obtained between March 1, 2020 and July 31, 2021. It included the number of COVID-19 cases that presented to four major EDs under the Hamad Medical Corporation CDEM umbrella and published data from the Qatar Ministry of public health (MoPH). On plotting weighted scatterplot smoothing (lowess) trend lines, there were striking similarities between CDEM and national COVID-19 n curves for overall trends and peaks. In conclusion, CDEM COVID-19 spike may be useful to predict national COVID-19 spike in 2-3 weeks.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Jibin Moinudheen
- Corporate Department of Emergency Medicine, Hamad Medical Corporation, Qatar E-mail:
| | - Katie Simon
- Corporate Department of Emergency Medicine, Hamad Medical Corporation, Qatar E-mail:
| | - Stephen H Thomas
- Corporate Department of Emergency Medicine, Hamad Medical Corporation, Qatar E-mail: .,Blizard Institute, Barts and The London School of Medicine, Queen Mary Univ. of London, UK
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Ayoub HH, Mumtaz GR, Seedat S, Makhoul M, Chemaitelly H, Abu-Raddad LJ. Estimates of global SARS-CoV-2 infection exposure, infection morbidity, and infection mortality rates in 2020. GLOBAL EPIDEMIOLOGY 2021; 3:100068. [PMID: 34841244 PMCID: PMC8609676 DOI: 10.1016/j.gloepi.2021.100068] [Citation(s) in RCA: 13] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/12/2021] [Revised: 10/31/2021] [Accepted: 11/19/2021] [Indexed: 12/16/2022] Open
Abstract
We aimed to estimate, albeit crudely and provisionally, national, regional, and global proportions of respective populations that have been infected with SARS-CoV-2 in the first year after the introduction of this virus into human circulation, and to assess infection morbidity and mortality rates, factoring both documented and undocumented infections. The estimates were generated by applying mathematical models to 159 countries and territories. The percentage of the world's population that has been infected as of 31 December 2020 was estimated at 12.56% (95% CI: 11.17-14.05%). It was lowest in the Western Pacific Region at 0.66% (95% CI: 0.59-0.75%) and highest in the Americas at 41.92% (95% CI: 37.95-46.09%). The global infection fatality rate was 10.73 (95% CI: 10.21-11.29) per 10,000 infections. Globally per 1000 infections, the infection acute-care bed hospitalization rate was 19.22 (95% CI: 18.73-19.51), the infection ICU bed hospitalization rate was 4.14 (95% CI: 4.10-4.18). If left unchecked with no vaccination and no other public health interventions, and assuming circulation of only wild-type variants and no variants of concern, the pandemic would eventually cause 8.18 million deaths (95% CI: 7.30-9.18), 163.67 million acute-care hospitalizations (95% CI: 148.12-179.51), and 33.01 million ICU hospitalizations (95% CI: 30.52-35.70), by the time the herd immunity threshold is reached at 60-70% infection exposure. The global population remained far below the herd immunity threshold by end of 2020. Global epidemiology reveals immense regional variation in infection exposure and morbidity and mortality rates.
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Affiliation(s)
- Houssein H. Ayoub
- Mathematics Program, Department of Mathematics, Statistics, and Physics, College of Arts and Sciences, Qatar University, Doha, Qatar
| | - Ghina R. Mumtaz
- Department of Epidemiology and Population Health, American University of Beirut, Beirut, Lebanon
| | - Shaheen Seedat
- Infectious Disease Epidemiology Group, Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar, Cornell University, Doha, Qatar
- World Health Organization Collaborating Centre for Disease Epidemiology Analytics on HIV/AIDS, Sexually Transmitted Infections, and Viral Hepatitis, Weill Cornell Medicine–Qatar, Cornell University, Qatar Foundation – Education City, Doha, Qatar
- Department of Population Health Sciences, Weill Cornell Medicine, Cornell University, NY, New York, USA
| | - Monia Makhoul
- Infectious Disease Epidemiology Group, Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar, Cornell University, Doha, Qatar
- World Health Organization Collaborating Centre for Disease Epidemiology Analytics on HIV/AIDS, Sexually Transmitted Infections, and Viral Hepatitis, Weill Cornell Medicine–Qatar, Cornell University, Qatar Foundation – Education City, Doha, Qatar
- Department of Population Health Sciences, Weill Cornell Medicine, Cornell University, NY, New York, USA
| | - Hiam Chemaitelly
- Infectious Disease Epidemiology Group, Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar, Cornell University, Doha, Qatar
- World Health Organization Collaborating Centre for Disease Epidemiology Analytics on HIV/AIDS, Sexually Transmitted Infections, and Viral Hepatitis, Weill Cornell Medicine–Qatar, Cornell University, Qatar Foundation – Education City, Doha, Qatar
| | - Laith J. Abu-Raddad
- Infectious Disease Epidemiology Group, Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar, Cornell University, Doha, Qatar
- World Health Organization Collaborating Centre for Disease Epidemiology Analytics on HIV/AIDS, Sexually Transmitted Infections, and Viral Hepatitis, Weill Cornell Medicine–Qatar, Cornell University, Qatar Foundation – Education City, Doha, Qatar
- Department of Population Health Sciences, Weill Cornell Medicine, Cornell University, NY, New York, USA
- Department of Public Health, College of Health Sciences, QU Health, Qatar University, Doha, Qatar
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31
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Tawe`ngi AM, Johnston S, Albayat SS, Bansal D, Ahmed S, Sallam MA, Al-Romaihi HE, Al-Thani M, Farag E, Emara MM. Pre-symptomatic and asymptomatic transmission of COVID-19: Implications for control measures in Qatar. Qatar Med J 2021; 2021:59. [PMID: 34745912 PMCID: PMC8555678 DOI: 10.5339/qmj.2021.59] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/24/2021] [Accepted: 09/23/2021] [Indexed: 11/23/2022] Open
Abstract
Public health control measures for communicable diseases are often based on the identification of symptomatic cases. However, emerging epidemiological evidence demonstrates the role of pre-symptomatic and asymptomatic transmissions of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Understanding high-risk settings where transmissions can occur from infected individuals without symptoms has become critical for improving the response to the pandemic. In this review, we discussed the evidence on the transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2, its effect on control strategies, and lessons that can be applied in Qatar. Although Qatar has a small population, it has a distinct setting for COVID-19 control. It has a largely young population and is mostly composed of expatriates particularly from the Middle East and Asia that reside in Qatar for work. Further key considerations for Qatar and travel include population movement during extended religious holiday periods, screening and tracing of visitors and residents at entry points into the country, and expatriates living and working in high-density settings. We also consider how its international airport serves as a major transit destination for the region, as Qatar is expected to experience a rapid expansion of visitors while preparing to host the FIFA World Cup in 2022.
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Affiliation(s)
- Abdelaziz M Tawe`ngi
- Basic Medical Sciences Department, College of Medicine, QU Health, Qatar University, Doha, Qatar E-mail:
| | - Samantha Johnston
- Health Protection and Communicable Diseases, Public Health Department, Ministry of Public Health, Doha, Qatar
| | - Soha Shawqi Albayat
- Health Protection and Communicable Diseases, Public Health Department, Ministry of Public Health, Doha, Qatar
| | - Devendra Bansal
- Health Protection and Communicable Diseases, Public Health Department, Ministry of Public Health, Doha, Qatar
| | - Shazia Ahmed
- Health Protection and Communicable Diseases, Public Health Department, Ministry of Public Health, Doha, Qatar
| | - Mohamed A Sallam
- Health Protection and Communicable Diseases, Public Health Department, Ministry of Public Health, Doha, Qatar
| | - Hamad Eid Al-Romaihi
- Health Protection and Communicable Diseases, Public Health Department, Ministry of Public Health, Doha, Qatar
| | - Mohammed Al-Thani
- Health Protection and Communicable Diseases, Public Health Department, Ministry of Public Health, Doha, Qatar
| | - Elmoubasher Farag
- Health Protection and Communicable Diseases, Public Health Department, Ministry of Public Health, Doha, Qatar
| | - Mohamed M. Emara
- Basic Medical Sciences Department, College of Medicine, QU Health, Qatar University, Doha, Qatar E-mail:
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Abu-Raddad LJ, Chemaitelly H, Malek JA, Ahmed AA, Mohamoud YA, Younuskunju S, Ayoub HH, Al Kanaani Z, Al Khal A, Al Kuwari E, Butt AA, Coyle P, Jeremijenko A, Kaleeckal AH, Latif AN, Shaik RM, Abdul Rahim HF, Yassine HM, Al Kuwari MG, Al Romaihi HE, Al-Thani MH, Bertollini R. Assessment of the Risk of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) Reinfection in an Intense Reexposure Setting. Clin Infect Dis 2021. [PMID: 33315061 DOI: 10.1101/2020.08.24.20179457] [Citation(s) in RCA: 34] [Impact Index Per Article: 11.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 04/22/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Risk of reinfection with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is unknown. We assessed the risk and incidence rate of documented SARS-CoV-2 reinfection in a cohort of laboratory-confirmed cases in Qatar. METHODS All SARS-CoV-2 laboratory-confirmed cases with at least 1 polymerase chain reaction-positive swab that was ≥45 days after a first positive swab were individually investigated for evidence of reinfection. Viral genome sequencing of the paired first positive and reinfection viral specimens was conducted to confirm reinfection. RESULTS Out of 133 266 laboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 cases, 243 persons (0.18%) had at least 1 subsequent positive swab ≥45 days after the first positive swab. Of these, 54 cases (22.2%) had strong or good evidence for reinfection. Median time between the first swab and reinfection swab was 64.5 days (range, 45-129). Twenty-three of the 54 cases (42.6%) were diagnosed at a health facility, suggesting presence of symptoms, while 31 (57.4%) were identified incidentally through random testing campaigns/surveys or contact tracing. Only 1 person was hospitalized at the time of reinfection but was discharged the next day. No deaths were recorded. Viral genome sequencing confirmed 4 reinfections of 12 cases with available genetic evidence. Reinfection risk was estimated at 0.02% (95% confidence interval [CI], .01%-.02%), and reinfection incidence rate was 0.36 (95% CI, .28-.47) per 10 000 person-weeks. CONCLUSIONS SARS-CoV-2 reinfection can occur but is a rare phenomenon suggestive of protective immunity against reinfection that lasts for at least a few months post primary infection.
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Affiliation(s)
- Laith J Abu-Raddad
- Infectious Disease Epidemiology Group, Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar, Cornell University, Doha, Qatar
- World Health Organization Collaborating Centre for Disease Epidemiology Analytics on HIV/AIDS, Sexually Transmitted Infections, and Viral Hepatitis, Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar, Cornell University, Qatar Foundation, Education City, Doha, Qatar
- Department of Population Health Sciences, Weill Cornell Medicine, Cornell University, New York, New York, USA
| | - Hiam Chemaitelly
- Infectious Disease Epidemiology Group, Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar, Cornell University, Doha, Qatar
- World Health Organization Collaborating Centre for Disease Epidemiology Analytics on HIV/AIDS, Sexually Transmitted Infections, and Viral Hepatitis, Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar, Cornell University, Qatar Foundation, Education City, Doha, Qatar
| | - Joel A Malek
- Genomics Laboratory, Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar, Cornell University, Doha, Qatar
- Department of Genetic Medicine, Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar, Cornell University, Doha, Qatar
| | - Ayeda A Ahmed
- Genomics Laboratory, Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar, Cornell University, Doha, Qatar
| | - Yasmin A Mohamoud
- Genomics Laboratory, Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar, Cornell University, Doha, Qatar
| | - Shameem Younuskunju
- Genomics Laboratory, Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar, Cornell University, Doha, Qatar
| | - Houssein H Ayoub
- Department of Mathematics, Statistics, and Physics, Qatar University, Doha, Qatar
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | - Hadi M Yassine
- Biomedical Research Center, Qatar University, Doha, Qatar
- Department of Biomedical Science, College of Health Sciences, Member of QU Health, Qatar University, Doha, Qatar
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Seedat S, Chemaitelly H, Ayoub HH, Makhoul M, Mumtaz GR, Al Kanaani Z, Al Khal A, Al Kuwari E, Butt AA, Coyle P, Jeremijenko A, Kaleeckal AH, Latif AN, Shaik RM, Yassine HM, Al Kuwari MG, Al Romaihi HE, Al-Thani MH, Bertollini R, Abu-Raddad LJ. SARS-CoV-2 infection hospitalization, severity, criticality, and fatality rates in Qatar. Sci Rep 2021; 11:18182. [PMID: 34521903 PMCID: PMC8440606 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-021-97606-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 33] [Impact Index Per Article: 11.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/07/2021] [Accepted: 07/21/2021] [Indexed: 01/12/2023] Open
Abstract
The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic resulted in considerable morbidity and mortality as well as severe economic and societal disruptions. Despite scientific progress, true infection severity, factoring both diagnosed and undiagnosed infections, remains poorly understood. This study aimed to estimate SARS-CoV-2 age-stratified and overall morbidity and mortality rates based on analysis of extensive epidemiological data for the pervasive epidemic in Qatar, a country where < 9% of the population are ≥ 50 years. We show that SARS-CoV-2 severity and fatality demonstrate a striking age dependence with low values for those aged < 50 years, but rapidly growing rates for those ≥ 50 years. Age dependence was particularly pronounced for infection criticality rate and infection fatality rate. With Qatar's young population, overall SARS-CoV-2 severity and fatality were not high with < 4 infections in every 1000 being severe or critical and < 2 in every 10,000 being fatal. Only 13 infections in every 1000 received any hospitalization in acute-care-unit beds and < 2 in every 1000 were hospitalized in intensive-care-unit beds. However, we show that these rates would have been much higher if Qatar's population had the demographic structure of Europe or the United States. Epidemic expansion in nations with young populations may lead to considerably lower disease burden than currently believed.
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Affiliation(s)
- Shaheen Seedat
- Infectious Disease Epidemiology Group, Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar, Cornell University, Doha, Qatar
- World Health Organization Collaborating Centre for Disease Epidemiology Analytics On HIV/AIDS, Sexually Transmitted Infections, and Viral Hepatitis, Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar, Cornell University, Qatar Foundation - Education City, P.O. Box 24144, Doha, Qatar
- Department of Population Health Sciences, Weill Cornell Medicine, Cornell University, New York, NY, USA
| | - Hiam Chemaitelly
- Infectious Disease Epidemiology Group, Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar, Cornell University, Doha, Qatar
- World Health Organization Collaborating Centre for Disease Epidemiology Analytics On HIV/AIDS, Sexually Transmitted Infections, and Viral Hepatitis, Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar, Cornell University, Qatar Foundation - Education City, P.O. Box 24144, Doha, Qatar
| | - Houssein H Ayoub
- Department of Mathematics, Statistics, and Physics, Qatar University, Doha, Qatar
| | - Monia Makhoul
- Infectious Disease Epidemiology Group, Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar, Cornell University, Doha, Qatar
- World Health Organization Collaborating Centre for Disease Epidemiology Analytics On HIV/AIDS, Sexually Transmitted Infections, and Viral Hepatitis, Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar, Cornell University, Qatar Foundation - Education City, P.O. Box 24144, Doha, Qatar
- Department of Population Health Sciences, Weill Cornell Medicine, Cornell University, New York, NY, USA
| | - Ghina R Mumtaz
- Department of Epidemiology and Population Health, American University of Beirut, Beirut, Lebanon
| | | | | | | | - Adeel A Butt
- Department of Population Health Sciences, Weill Cornell Medicine, Cornell University, New York, NY, USA
- Hamad Medical Corporation, Doha, Qatar
| | | | | | | | | | | | - Hadi M Yassine
- Biomedical Research Center, Qatar University, Doha, Qatar
- Department of Biomedical Science, College of Health Sciences, Member of QU Health, Qatar University, Doha, Qatar
| | | | | | | | | | - Laith J Abu-Raddad
- Infectious Disease Epidemiology Group, Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar, Cornell University, Doha, Qatar.
- World Health Organization Collaborating Centre for Disease Epidemiology Analytics On HIV/AIDS, Sexually Transmitted Infections, and Viral Hepatitis, Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar, Cornell University, Qatar Foundation - Education City, P.O. Box 24144, Doha, Qatar.
- Department of Population Health Sciences, Weill Cornell Medicine, Cornell University, New York, NY, USA.
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Al-Thani MH, Farag E, Bertollini R, Al Romaihi HE, Abdeen S, Abdelkarim A, Daraan F, Elhaj Ismail AIH, Mostafa N, Sahl M, Suliman J, Tayar E, Kasem HA, Agsalog MJA, Akkarathodiyil BK, Alkhalaf AA, Alakshar MMMH, Al-Qahtani AAAH, Al-Shedifat MHA, Ansari A, Ataalla AA, Chougule S, Gopinathan AKKV, Poolakundan FJ, Ranbhise SU, Saefan SMA, Thaivalappil MM, Thoyalil AS, Umar IM, Al Kanaani Z, Al Khal A, Al Kuwari E, Butt AA, Coyle P, Jeremijenko A, Kaleeckal AH, Latif AN, Shaik RM, Abdul Rahim HF, Yassine HM, Nasrallah GK, Al Kuwari MG, Chaghoury O, Chemaitelly H, Abu-Raddad LJ. SARS-CoV-2 Infection Is at Herd Immunity in the Majority Segment of the Population of Qatar. Open Forum Infect Dis 2021; 8:ofab221. [PMID: 34458388 PMCID: PMC8135898 DOI: 10.1093/ofid/ofab221] [Citation(s) in RCA: 32] [Impact Index Per Article: 10.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/02/2021] [Accepted: 04/27/2021] [Indexed: 12/21/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Qatar experienced a severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) epidemic that disproportionately affected the craft and manual worker (CMW) population, who comprise 60% of the total population. This study aimed to assess ever and/or current infection prevalence in this population. METHODS A cross-sectional population-based survey was conducted during July 26 to September 09, 2020, to assess both anti-SARS-CoV-2 positivity through serological testing and current infection positivity through polymerase chain reaction (PCR) testing. Associations with antibody and PCR positivity were identified through regression analyses. RESULTS The study included 2641 participants, 69.3% of whom were <40 years of age. Anti-SARS-CoV-2 positivity was 55.3% (95% CI, 53.3%-57.3%) and was significantly associated with nationality, geographic location, educational attainment, occupation, and previous infection diagnosis. PCR positivity was 11.3% (95% CI, 9.9%-12.8%) and was significantly associated with nationality, geographic location, occupation, contact with an infected person, and reporting 2 or more symptoms. Infection positivity (antibody and/or PCR positive) was 60.6% (95% CI, 58.6%-62.5%). The proportion of antibody-positive CMWs who had a prior SARS-CoV-2 diagnosis was 9.3% (95% CI, 7.9%-11.0%). Only seven infections were ever severe, and only 1 was ever critical-an infection severity rate of 0.5% (95% CI, 0.2%-1.0%). CONCLUSIONS Six in every 10 CMWs in Qatar have been infected, suggestive of reaching the herd immunity threshold. Infection severity was low, with only 1 in every 200 infections progressing to be severe or critical. Only 1 in every 10 infections had been previously diagnosed, which is suggestive of mostly asymptomatic or mild infections.
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Affiliation(s)
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | - Mohamed Sahl
- Ministry of Public Health, Doha, Qatar
- Hamad Medical Corporation, Doha, Qatar
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | - Adeel A Butt
- Hamad Medical Corporation, Doha, Qatar
- Department of Population Health Sciences, Weill Cornell Medicine, Cornell University, New York, New York, USA
| | - Peter Coyle
- Hamad Medical Corporation, Doha, Qatar
- The Wellcome-Wolfson Institute for Experimental Medicine, Queens University, Belfast, UK
- Biomedical Research Center, Qatar University, Doha, Qatar
| | | | | | | | | | | | - Hadi M Yassine
- Biomedical Research Center, Qatar University, Doha, Qatar
- Department of Biomedical Science, College of Health Sciences, Member of QU Health, Qatar University, Doha, Qatar
| | - Gheyath K Nasrallah
- Biomedical Research Center, Qatar University, Doha, Qatar
- Department of Biomedical Science, College of Health Sciences, Member of QU Health, Qatar University, Doha, Qatar
| | | | | | - Hiam Chemaitelly
- Infectious Disease Epidemiology Group, Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar, Cornell University, Qatar Foundation-Education City, Doha, Qatar
- World Health Organization Collaborating Centre for Disease Epidemiology Analytics on HIV/AIDS, Sexually Transmitted Infections, and Viral Hepatitis, Weill Cornell Medicine–Qatar, Cornell University, Qatar Foundation—Education City, Doha, Qatar
| | - Laith J Abu-Raddad
- Department of Population Health Sciences, Weill Cornell Medicine, Cornell University, New York, New York, USA
- Infectious Disease Epidemiology Group, Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar, Cornell University, Qatar Foundation-Education City, Doha, Qatar
- World Health Organization Collaborating Centre for Disease Epidemiology Analytics on HIV/AIDS, Sexually Transmitted Infections, and Viral Hepatitis, Weill Cornell Medicine–Qatar, Cornell University, Qatar Foundation—Education City, Doha, Qatar
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35
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Coyle PV, Chemaitelly H, Ben Hadj Kacem MA, Abdulla Al Molawi NH, El Kahlout RA, Gilliani I, Younes N, Al Anssari GAA, Al Kanaani Z, Al Khal A, Al Kuwari E, Butt AA, Jeremijenko A, Kaleeckal AH, Latif AN, Shaik RM, Abdul Rahim HF, Nasrallah GK, Yassine HM, Al Kuwari MG, Al Romaihi HE, Al-Thani MH, Bertollini R, Abu-Raddad LJ. SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence in the urban population of Qatar: An analysis of antibody testing on a sample of 112,941 individuals. iScience 2021; 24:102646. [PMID: 34056566 PMCID: PMC8142077 DOI: 10.1016/j.isci.2021.102646] [Citation(s) in RCA: 52] [Impact Index Per Article: 17.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/24/2021] [Revised: 04/21/2021] [Accepted: 05/19/2021] [Indexed: 12/16/2022] Open
Abstract
The study objective was to the assess level of detectable severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) antibodies in the urban population of Qatar. Antibody testing was performed on residual blood specimens for 112,941 individuals (∼10% of Qatar's urban population) attending for routine/other clinical care between May 12 and September 9, 2020. Seropositivity was 13.3% (95% confidence interval [CI] = 13.1-13.6%) and was independently associated with sex, age, nationality, clinical care encounter type, and testing date. Median optical density (antibody titer) among antibody-positive persons was 27.0 (range = 1.0-150.0), with higher values associated with age, nationality, clinical care encounter type, and testing date. Seropositivity by nationality was positively correlated with the likelihood of having higher antibody titers (Pearson correlation coefficient = 0.85; 95% CI = 0.47-0.96). Less than two in every 10 individuals in Qatar's urban population had detectable antibodies against SARS-CoV-2, suggesting this population is still far from herd immunity and at risk of subsequent infection waves. Higher antibody titer appears to be a biomarker of repeated exposures to the infection.
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Affiliation(s)
- Peter V. Coyle
- Hamad Medical Corporation, Doha, P.O. Box 3050, Qatar
- Biomedical Research Center, Qatar University, Doha, P.O. Box 2713, Qatar
- Wellcome-Wolfson Institute for Experimental Medicine, Queens University, Belfast, BT7 1NN United Kingdom
| | - Hiam Chemaitelly
- Infectious Disease Epidemiology Group, Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar, Cornell University, Qatar Foundation - Education City, P.O. Box 24144, Doha, Qatar
- World Health Organization Collaborating Centre for Disease Epidemiology Analytics on HIV/AIDS, Sexually Transmitted Infections, and Viral Hepatitis, Weill Cornell Medicine–Qatar, Cornell University, Qatar Foundation – Education City, Doha, P.O. Box 24144, Qatar
| | | | | | | | | | - Nourah Younes
- Hamad Medical Corporation, Doha, P.O. Box 3050, Qatar
| | | | | | | | | | - Adeel A. Butt
- Hamad Medical Corporation, Doha, P.O. Box 3050, Qatar
- Department of Population Health Sciences, Weill Cornell Medicine, Cornell University, New York, NY 10065, USA
| | | | | | | | | | - Hanan F. Abdul Rahim
- College of Health Sciences, QU Health, Qatar University, Doha, P.O. Box 2713, Qatar
| | - Gheyath K. Nasrallah
- Biomedical Research Center, Qatar University, Doha, P.O. Box 2713, Qatar
- Department of Biomedical Science, College of Health Sciences, Member of QU Health, Qatar University, Doha, P.O. Box 2713, Qatar
| | - Hadi M. Yassine
- Biomedical Research Center, Qatar University, Doha, P.O. Box 2713, Qatar
- Department of Biomedical Science, College of Health Sciences, Member of QU Health, Qatar University, Doha, P.O. Box 2713, Qatar
| | | | | | | | | | - Laith J. Abu-Raddad
- Infectious Disease Epidemiology Group, Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar, Cornell University, Qatar Foundation - Education City, P.O. Box 24144, Doha, Qatar
- World Health Organization Collaborating Centre for Disease Epidemiology Analytics on HIV/AIDS, Sexually Transmitted Infections, and Viral Hepatitis, Weill Cornell Medicine–Qatar, Cornell University, Qatar Foundation – Education City, Doha, P.O. Box 24144, Qatar
- Department of Population Health Sciences, Weill Cornell Medicine, Cornell University, New York, NY 10065, USA
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Jeremijenko A, Chemaitelly H, Ayoub HH, Alishaq M, Abou-Samra AB, Al Ajmi JAAA, Al Ansari NAA, Al Kanaani Z, Al Khal A, Al Kuwari E, Al-Mohammed A, Al Molawi NHA, Al Naomi HM, Butt AA, Coyle P, El Kahlout RA, Gillani I, Kaleeckal AH, Masoodi NA, Thomas AG, Nafady-Hego H, Latif AN, Shaik RM, Younes NBM, Rahim HFA, Yassine HM, Al Kuwari MG, Al Romaihi HE, Al-Thani MH, Bertollini R, Abu-Raddad LJ. Herd Immunity against Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 Infection in 10 Communities, Qatar. Emerg Infect Dis 2021; 27:1343-1352. [PMID: 33900174 PMCID: PMC8084480 DOI: 10.3201/eid2705.204365] [Citation(s) in RCA: 51] [Impact Index Per Article: 17.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/11/2023] Open
Abstract
We investigated what proportion of the population acquired severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection and whether the herd immunity threshold has been reached in 10 communities in Qatar. The study included 4,970 participants during June 21-September 9, 2020. Antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 were detected by using an electrochemiluminescence immunoassay. Seropositivity ranged from 54.9% (95% CI 50.2%-59.4%) to 83.8% (95% CI 79.1%-87.7%) across communities and showed a pooled mean of 66.1% (95% CI 61.5%-70.6%). A range of other epidemiologic measures indicated that active infection is rare, with limited if any sustainable infection transmission for clusters to occur. Only 5 infections were ever severe and 1 was critical in these young communities; infection severity rate of 0.2% (95% CI 0.1%-0.4%). Specific communities in Qatar have or nearly reached herd immunity for SARS-CoV-2 infection: 65%-70% of the population has been infected.
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Analytic comparison between three high-throughput commercial SARS-CoV-2 antibody assays reveals minor discrepancies in a high-incidence population. Sci Rep 2021; 11:11837. [PMID: 34088944 PMCID: PMC8178338 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-021-91235-x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 12] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/03/2021] [Accepted: 05/24/2021] [Indexed: 11/30/2022] Open
Abstract
Performance of three automated commercial serological IgG-based assays was investigated for assessing SARS-CoV-2 “ever” (past or current) infection in a population-based sample in a high exposure setting. PCR and serological testing was performed on 394 individuals. SARS-CoV-2-IgG seroprevalence was 42.9% (95% CI 38.1–47.8%), 40.6% (95% CI 35.9–45.5%), and 42.4% (95% CI 37.6–47.3%) using the CL-900i, VidasIII, and Elecsys assays, respectively. Between the three assays, overall, positive, and negative percent agreements ranged between 93.2–95.7%, 89.3–92.8%, and 93.8–97.8%, respectively; Cohen’s kappa statistic ranged from 0.86 to 0.91; and 35 specimens (8.9%) showed discordant results. Among all individuals, 12.5% (95% CI 9.6–16.1%) had current infection, as assessed by PCR. Of these, only 34.7% (95% CI 22.9–48.7%) were seropositive by at least one assay. A total of 216 individuals (54.8%; 95% CI 49.9–59.7%) had evidence of ever infection using antibody testing and/or PCR during or prior to this study. Of these, only 78.2%, 74.1%, and 77.3% were seropositive in the CL-900i, VidasIII, and Elecsys assays, respectively. All three assays had comparable performance and excellent agreement, but missed at least 20% of individuals with past or current infection. Commercial antibody assays can substantially underestimate ever infection, more so when infection rates are high.
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Abu-Raddad LJ, Chemaitelly H, Coyle P, Malek JA, Ahmed AA, Mohamoud YA, Younuskunju S, Ayoub HH, Al Kanaani Z, Al Kuwari E, Butt AA, Jeremijenko A, Kaleeckal AH, Latif AN, Shaik RM, Abdul Rahim HF, Nasrallah GK, Yassine HM, Al Kuwari MG, Al Romaihi HE, Al-Thani MH, Al Khal A, Bertollini R. SARS-CoV-2 antibody-positivity protects against reinfection for at least seven months with 95% efficacy. EClinicalMedicine 2021; 35:100861. [PMID: 33937733 PMCID: PMC8079668 DOI: 10.1016/j.eclinm.2021.100861] [Citation(s) in RCA: 106] [Impact Index Per Article: 35.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/03/2021] [Revised: 04/02/2021] [Accepted: 04/06/2021] [Indexed: 12/28/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Reinfection with the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has been documented, raising public health concerns. SARS-CoV-2 reinfections were assessed in a cohort of antibody-positive persons in Qatar. METHODS All SARS-CoV-2 antibody-positive persons from April 16 to December 31, 2020 with a PCR-positive swab ≥14 days after the first-positive antibody test were investigated for evidence of reinfection. Viral genome sequencing was conducted for paired viral specimens to confirm reinfection. Incidence of reinfection was compared to incidence of infection in the complement cohort of those who were antibody-negative. FINDINGS Among 43,044 antibody-positive persons who were followed for a median of 16.3 weeks (range: 0-34.6), 314 individuals (0.7%) had at least one PCR positive swab ≥14 days after the first-positive antibody test. Of these individuals, 129 (41.1%) had supporting epidemiological evidence for reinfection. Reinfection was next investigated using viral genome sequencing. Applying the viral-genome-sequencing confirmation rate, the incidence rate of reinfection was estimated at 0.66 per 10,000 person-weeks (95% CI: 0.56-0.78). Incidence rate of reinfection versus month of follow-up did not show any evidence of waning of immunity for over seven months of follow-up. Meanwhile, in the complement cohort of 149,923 antibody-negative persons followed for a median of 17.0 weeks (range: 0-45.6), incidence rate of infection was estimated at 13.69 per 10,000 person-weeks (95% CI: 13.22-14.14). Efficacy of natural infection against reinfection was estimated at 95.2% (95% CI: 94.1-96.0%). Reinfections were less severe than primary infections. Only one reinfection was severe, two were moderate, and none were critical or fatal. Most reinfections (66.7%) were diagnosed incidentally through random or routine testing, or through contact tracing. INTERPRETATION Reinfection is rare in the young and international population of Qatar. Natural infection appears to elicit strong protection against reinfection with an efficacy ~95% for at least seven months. FUNDING Biomedical Research Program, the Biostatistics, Epidemiology, and Biomathematics Research Core, and the Genomics Core, all at Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar, the Ministry of Public Health, Hamad Medical Corporation, and the Qatar Genome Programme.
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Affiliation(s)
- Laith J. Abu-Raddad
- Infectious Disease Epidemiology Group, Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar, Cornell University, Doha, Qatar
- World Health Organization Collaborating Centre for Disease Epidemiology Analytics on HIV/AIDS, Sexually Transmitted Infections, and Viral Hepatitis, Weill Cornell Medicine–Qatar, Cornell University, Qatar Foundation, Education City, Doha, Qatar
- Department of Population Health Sciences, Weill Cornell Medicine, Cornell University, New York, NY, United States
| | - Hiam Chemaitelly
- Infectious Disease Epidemiology Group, Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar, Cornell University, Doha, Qatar
- World Health Organization Collaborating Centre for Disease Epidemiology Analytics on HIV/AIDS, Sexually Transmitted Infections, and Viral Hepatitis, Weill Cornell Medicine–Qatar, Cornell University, Qatar Foundation, Education City, Doha, Qatar
| | | | - Joel A. Malek
- Genomics Laboratory, Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar, Cornell University, Doha, Qatar
- Department of Genetic Medicine, Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar, Cornell University, Doha, Qatar
| | - Ayeda A. Ahmed
- Genomics Laboratory, Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar, Cornell University, Doha, Qatar
| | - Yasmin A. Mohamoud
- Genomics Laboratory, Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar, Cornell University, Doha, Qatar
| | - Shameem Younuskunju
- Genomics Laboratory, Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar, Cornell University, Doha, Qatar
| | - Houssein H. Ayoub
- Department of Mathematics, Statistics, and Physics, Qatar University, Doha, Qatar
| | | | | | - Adeel A. Butt
- Department of Population Health Sciences, Weill Cornell Medicine, Cornell University, New York, NY, United States
- Hamad Medical Corporation, Doha, Qatar
| | | | | | | | | | | | - Gheyath K. Nasrallah
- Biomedical Research Center, Member of QU Health, Qatar University, Doha, Qatar
- Department of Biomedical Science, College of Health Sciences, Member of QU Health, Qatar University, Doha, Qatar
| | - Hadi M. Yassine
- Biomedical Research Center, Member of QU Health, Qatar University, Doha, Qatar
- Department of Biomedical Science, College of Health Sciences, Member of QU Health, Qatar University, Doha, Qatar
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Ayoub HH, Chemaitelly H, Makhoul M, Al Kanaani Z, Al Kuwari E, Butt AA, Coyle P, Jeremijenko A, Kaleeckal AH, Latif AN, Shaik RM, Abdul Rahim HF, Nasrallah GK, Yassine HM, Al Kuwari MG, Al Romaihi HE, Al-Thani MH, Bertollini R, Al Khal A, Abu-Raddad LJ. Epidemiological impact of prioritising SARS-CoV-2 vaccination by antibody status: mathematical modelling analyses. BMJ INNOVATIONS 2021; 7:327-336. [PMID: 34192020 PMCID: PMC8025209 DOI: 10.1136/bmjinnov-2021-000677] [Citation(s) in RCA: 15] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/09/2021] [Revised: 03/08/2021] [Accepted: 03/15/2021] [Indexed: 12/12/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Vaccines against SARS-CoV-2 have been developed, but their availability falls far short of global needs. This study aimed to investigate the impact of prioritising available doses on the basis of recipient antibody status, that is by exposure status, using Qatar as an example. METHODS Vaccination impact (defined as the reduction in infection incidence and the number of vaccinations needed to avert one infection or one adverse disease outcome) was assessed under different scale-up scenarios using a deterministic meta-population mathematical model describing SARS-CoV-2 transmission and disease progression in the presence of vaccination. RESULTS For a vaccine that protects against infection with an efficacy of 95%, half as many vaccinations were needed to avert one infection, disease outcome or death by prioritising antibody-negative individuals for vaccination. Prioritisation by antibody status reduced incidence at a faster rate and led to faster elimination of infection and return to normalcy. Further prioritisation by age group amplified the gains of prioritisation by antibody status. Gains from prioritisation by antibody status were largest in settings where the proportion of the population already infected at the commencement of vaccination was 30%-60%. For a vaccine that only protects against disease and not infection, vaccine impact was reduced by half, whether this impact was measured in terms of averted infections or disease outcomes, but the relative gains from using antibody status to prioritise vaccination recipients were similar. CONCLUSIONS Major health and economic gains can be achieved more quickly by prioritizing those who are antibody-negative while doses of the vaccine remain in short supply.
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Affiliation(s)
- Houssein H Ayoub
- Department of Mathematics, Statistics, and Physics, Qatar University, Doha, Qatar
| | - Hiam Chemaitelly
- Infectious Disease Epidemiology Group, Weill Cornell Medicine—Qatar, Cornell University, Doha, Qatar
- World Health Organization Collaborating Centre for Disease Epidemiology Analytics on HIV/AIDS, Sexually Transmitted Infections, and Viral Hepatitis, Weill Cornell Medicine—Qatar, Cornell University, Qatar Foundation – Education City, Doha, Qatar
| | - Monia Makhoul
- Infectious Disease Epidemiology Group, Weill Cornell Medicine—Qatar, Cornell University, Doha, Qatar
- World Health Organization Collaborating Centre for Disease Epidemiology Analytics on HIV/AIDS, Sexually Transmitted Infections, and Viral Hepatitis, Weill Cornell Medicine—Qatar, Cornell University, Qatar Foundation – Education City, Doha, Qatar
- Department of Population Health Sciences, Weill Cornell Medicine, Cornell University, New York City, New York, USA
| | | | | | - Adeel A Butt
- Department of Population Health Sciences, Weill Cornell Medicine, Cornell University, New York City, New York, USA
- Hamad Medical Corporation, Doha, Qatar
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | - Gheyath K Nasrallah
- Biomedical Research Center, Qatar University, Doha, Qatar
- Department of Biomedical Science, College of Health Sciences, Member of QU Health, Qatar University, Doha, Qatar
| | - Hadi M Yassine
- Biomedical Research Center, Qatar University, Doha, Qatar
- Department of Biomedical Science, College of Health Sciences, Member of QU Health, Qatar University, Doha, Qatar
| | | | | | | | | | | | - Laith J Abu-Raddad
- Infectious Disease Epidemiology Group, Weill Cornell Medicine—Qatar, Cornell University, Doha, Qatar
- World Health Organization Collaborating Centre for Disease Epidemiology Analytics on HIV/AIDS, Sexually Transmitted Infections, and Viral Hepatitis, Weill Cornell Medicine—Qatar, Cornell University, Qatar Foundation – Education City, Doha, Qatar
- Department of Population Health Sciences, Weill Cornell Medicine, Cornell University, New York City, New York, USA
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Abu-Raddad LJ, Chemaitelly H, Ayoub HH, Al Kanaani Z, Al Khal A, Al Kuwari E, Butt AA, Coyle P, Jeremijenko A, Kaleeckal AH, Latif AN, Owen RC, Rahim HFA, Al Abdulla SA, Al Kuwari MG, Kandy MC, Saeb H, Ahmed SNN, Al Romaihi HE, Bansal D, Dalton L, Al-Thani MH, Bertollini R. Characterizing the Qatar advanced-phase SARS-CoV-2 epidemic. Sci Rep 2021; 11:6233. [PMID: 33737535 PMCID: PMC7973743 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-021-85428-7] [Citation(s) in RCA: 62] [Impact Index Per Article: 20.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/01/2020] [Accepted: 02/26/2021] [Indexed: 01/08/2023] Open
Abstract
The overarching objective of this study was to provide the descriptive epidemiology of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) epidemic in Qatar by addressing specific research questions through a series of national epidemiologic studies. Sources of data were the centralized and standardized national databases for SARS-CoV-2 infection. By July 10, 2020, 397,577 individuals had been tested for SARS-CoV-2 using polymerase-chain-reaction (PCR), of whom 110,986 were positive, a positivity cumulative rate of 27.9% (95% CI 27.8-28.1%). As of July 5, case severity rate, based on World Health Organization (WHO) severity classification, was 3.4% and case fatality rate was 1.4 per 1,000 persons. Age was by far the strongest predictor of severe, critical, or fatal infection. PCR positivity of nasopharyngeal/oropharyngeal swabs in a national community survey (May 6-7) including 1,307 participants was 14.9% (95% CI 11.5-19.0%); 58.5% of those testing positive were asymptomatic. Across 448 ad-hoc testing campaigns in workplaces and residential areas including 26,715 individuals, pooled mean PCR positivity was 15.6% (95% CI 13.7-17.7%). SARS-CoV-2 antibody prevalence was 24.0% (95% CI 23.3-24.6%) in 32,970 residual clinical blood specimens. Antibody prevalence was only 47.3% (95% CI 46.2-48.5%) in those who had at least one PCR positive result, but 91.3% (95% CI 89.5-92.9%) among those who were PCR positive > 3 weeks before serology testing. Qatar has experienced a large SARS-CoV-2 epidemic that is rapidly declining, apparently due to growing immunity levels in the population.
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Affiliation(s)
- Laith J Abu-Raddad
- Infectious Disease Epidemiology Group, Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar, Cornell University, Qatar Foundation - Education City, P.O. Box 24144, Doha, Qatar.
- World Health Organization Collaborating Centre for Disease Epidemiology Analytics On HIV/AIDS, Sexually Transmitted Infections, and Viral Hepatitis, Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar, Cornell University, Qatar Foundation - Education City, Doha, Qatar.
- Department of Population Health Sciences, Weill Cornell Medicine, Cornell University, New York, NY, USA.
| | - Hiam Chemaitelly
- Infectious Disease Epidemiology Group, Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar, Cornell University, Qatar Foundation - Education City, P.O. Box 24144, Doha, Qatar
- World Health Organization Collaborating Centre for Disease Epidemiology Analytics On HIV/AIDS, Sexually Transmitted Infections, and Viral Hepatitis, Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar, Cornell University, Qatar Foundation - Education City, Doha, Qatar
| | - Houssein H Ayoub
- Department of Mathematics, Statistics, and Physics, Qatar University, Doha, Qatar
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | - Hatoun Saeb
- Primary Health Care Corporation, Doha, Qatar
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Abu-Raddad LJ, Chemaitelly H, Ayoub HH, Al Kanaani Z, Al Khal A, Al Kuwari E, Butt AA, Coyle P, Jeremijenko A, Kaleeckal AH, Latif AN, Owen RC, Rahim HFA, Al Abdulla SA, Al Kuwari MG, Kandy MC, Saeb H, Ahmed SNN, Al Romaihi HE, Bansal D, Dalton L, Al-Thani MH, Bertollini R. Characterizing the Qatar advanced-phase SARS-CoV-2 epidemic. Sci Rep 2021; 11:6233. [PMID: 33737535 DOI: 10.1101/2020.07.16.20155317] [Citation(s) in RCA: 11] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/01/2020] [Accepted: 02/26/2021] [Indexed: 05/23/2023] Open
Abstract
The overarching objective of this study was to provide the descriptive epidemiology of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) epidemic in Qatar by addressing specific research questions through a series of national epidemiologic studies. Sources of data were the centralized and standardized national databases for SARS-CoV-2 infection. By July 10, 2020, 397,577 individuals had been tested for SARS-CoV-2 using polymerase-chain-reaction (PCR), of whom 110,986 were positive, a positivity cumulative rate of 27.9% (95% CI 27.8-28.1%). As of July 5, case severity rate, based on World Health Organization (WHO) severity classification, was 3.4% and case fatality rate was 1.4 per 1,000 persons. Age was by far the strongest predictor of severe, critical, or fatal infection. PCR positivity of nasopharyngeal/oropharyngeal swabs in a national community survey (May 6-7) including 1,307 participants was 14.9% (95% CI 11.5-19.0%); 58.5% of those testing positive were asymptomatic. Across 448 ad-hoc testing campaigns in workplaces and residential areas including 26,715 individuals, pooled mean PCR positivity was 15.6% (95% CI 13.7-17.7%). SARS-CoV-2 antibody prevalence was 24.0% (95% CI 23.3-24.6%) in 32,970 residual clinical blood specimens. Antibody prevalence was only 47.3% (95% CI 46.2-48.5%) in those who had at least one PCR positive result, but 91.3% (95% CI 89.5-92.9%) among those who were PCR positive > 3 weeks before serology testing. Qatar has experienced a large SARS-CoV-2 epidemic that is rapidly declining, apparently due to growing immunity levels in the population.
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Affiliation(s)
- Laith J Abu-Raddad
- Infectious Disease Epidemiology Group, Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar, Cornell University, Qatar Foundation - Education City, P.O. Box 24144, Doha, Qatar.
- World Health Organization Collaborating Centre for Disease Epidemiology Analytics On HIV/AIDS, Sexually Transmitted Infections, and Viral Hepatitis, Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar, Cornell University, Qatar Foundation - Education City, Doha, Qatar.
- Department of Population Health Sciences, Weill Cornell Medicine, Cornell University, New York, NY, USA.
| | - Hiam Chemaitelly
- Infectious Disease Epidemiology Group, Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar, Cornell University, Qatar Foundation - Education City, P.O. Box 24144, Doha, Qatar
- World Health Organization Collaborating Centre for Disease Epidemiology Analytics On HIV/AIDS, Sexually Transmitted Infections, and Viral Hepatitis, Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar, Cornell University, Qatar Foundation - Education City, Doha, Qatar
| | - Houssein H Ayoub
- Department of Mathematics, Statistics, and Physics, Qatar University, Doha, Qatar
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | - Hatoun Saeb
- Primary Health Care Corporation, Doha, Qatar
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