The choice of tree prior and molecular clock does not substantially affect phylogenetic inferences of diversification rates

A phylogeographic pattern of the trans-Palaearctic littoral water flea Pleuroхus truncatus (O.F. Müller, 1785) (Cladocera: Chydoridae)

Water fleas (Crustacea: Cladocera) are recently regarded as models for phylogeographic studies, but most such publications are concerned the planktonic genera, first of all, Daphnia O.F. Müller. The aim of our article is to study the phylogeographic pattern of a very common littoral chydorid Pleuroxus truncatus (O.F. Müller) based on sequences of two mitochondrial (cytochrome oxidase (COI) and 16S) and two nuclear (18S and 28S) genes. All totality of the sequences could be subdivided into two major clades, A, having a predominantly European distribution with a single exclusion, and B, having a predominantly Asian distribution, but with few populations in European Russia; the clade B is subdivided into three subclades (B1-B3) with a moderate support. Earlier derived phylogroups (subclades B1 and B2) are distributed in south portion of Western Siberia. This pattern is known for previously studied daphniids. Estimations of the major clade (A and B) and subclade differentiation time in P. truncatus based on different methods lie in the interval of ca. 0.01-0.3 Mya. Therefore, the whole revealed pattern is very young, related to Late Pleistocene and more shallow as compared to previously studied daphniids. Probably, the total population of P. truncatus was not so strongly split by the unfavorable conditions during the Pleistocene cold phases.

Combining Molecular, Macroevolutionary, and Macroecological Perspectives on the Generation of Diversity

Charles Darwin presented a unified process of diversification driven by the gradual accumulation of heritable variation. The growth in DNA databases and the increase in genomic sequencing, combined with advances in molecular phylogenetic analyses, gives us an opportunity to realize Darwin's vision, connecting the generation of variation to the diversification of lineages. The rate of molecular evolution is correlated with the rate of diversification across animals and plants, but the relationship between genome change and speciation is complex: Mutation rates evolve in response to life history and niche; substitution rates are influenced by mutation, selection, and population size; rates of acquisition of reproductive isolation vary between populations; and traits, niches, and distribution can influence diversification rates. The connection between mutation rate and diversification rate is one part of the complex and varied story of speciation, which has theoretical importance for understanding the generation of biodiversity and also practical impacts on the use of DNA to understand the dynamics of speciation over macroevolutionary timescales.

The Limits of the Constant-rate Birth-Death Prior for Phylogenetic Tree Topology Inference

Birth-death models are stochastic processes describing speciation and extinction through time and across taxa and are widely used in biology for inference of evolutionary timescales. Previous research has highlighted how the expected trees under the constant-rate birth-death (crBD) model tend to differ from empirical trees, for example, with respect to the amount of phylogenetic imbalance. However, our understanding of how trees differ between the crBD model and the signal in empirical data remains incomplete. In this Point of View, we aim to expose the degree to which the crBD model differs from empirically inferred phylogenies and test the limits of the model in practice. Using a wide range of topology indices to compare crBD expectations against a comprehensive dataset of 1189 empirically estimated trees, we confirm that crBD model trees frequently differ topologically compared with empirical trees. To place this in the context of standard practice in the field, we conducted a meta-analysis for a subset of the empirical studies. When comparing studies that used Bayesian methods and crBD priors with those that used other non-crBD priors and non-Bayesian methods (i.e., maximum likelihood methods), we do not find any significant differences in tree topology inferences. To scrutinize this finding for the case of highly imbalanced trees, we selected the 100 trees with the greatest imbalance from our dataset, simulated sequence data for these tree topologies under various evolutionary rates, and re-inferred the trees under maximum likelihood and using the crBD model in a Bayesian setting. We find that when the substitution rate is low, the crBD prior results in overly balanced trees, but the tendency is negligible when substitution rates are sufficiently high. Overall, our findings demonstrate the general robustness of crBD priors across a broad range of phylogenetic inference scenarios but also highlight that empirically observed phylogenetic imbalance is highly improbable under the crBD model, leading to systematic bias in data sets with limited information content.

Dispersal from Africa to the Neotropics was followed by multiple transitions across Neotropical biomes facilitated by frugivores

BACKGROUND AND AIM

Plant disjunctions have fascinated biogeographers and ecologists for a long time. We use tribe Bocageeae (Annonaceae), a predominantly Neotropical plant group distributed across several present-day Neotropical biomes and with an African-American disjunction, to investigate long-distance dispersal mediated by frugivorous animals at both intercontinental and intracontinental scales.

METHODS

We reconstructed a species-level phylogeny of tribe Bocageeae with a dataset composed of 116 nuclear markers. We sampled 70 % of Bocageeae species, covering their geographical range and representing all eight genera. We estimated divergence times using BEAST, inferred ancestral range distributions and reconstructed ancestral states for fruit traits related to long-distance dispersal in a Bayesian framework.

KEY RESULTS

The ancestral Bocageeae date to the Early Eocene and were inferred to occur in Africa and proto-Amazonia. Their ancestral fruits were large and dehiscent. The first lineage split gave rise to an exclusively Neotropical clade during the Middle Eocene, in proto-Amazonia. Range exchange between the Amazon and the Atlantic Forest occurred at least once during the Miocene, and from Amazonia to Central America and Mexico during the Early Miocene. Transitions in different sets of fruit morphologies were inferred to be related to dispersal events across South American regions/biomes.

CONCLUSIONS

In Bocageeae, mammals might have been responsible for long-distance dispersal through the Boreotropics. In the Neotropics, proto-Amazonia is proposed to be the source for dispersal to other tropical American biomes. Long-distance dispersal might have happened via a wide range of dispersal guilds, depending on frugivore radiations, diversity and abundance in particular time periods and places. Hence, inter- and intracontinental dispersal might not rely on a single dispersal syndrome or guild, but more on the availability of frugivorous lineages for seed dispersal.

Their fates intertwined: diversification patterns of the Asian gliding vertebrates may have been forged by dipterocarp trees

The repeated evolution of gliding in diverse Asian vertebrate lineages is hypothesized to have been triggered by the dominance of tall dipterocarp trees in the tropical forests of Southeast Asia. These dipterocarp forests have acted as both centres of diversification and climatic refugia for gliding vertebrates, and support most of their extant diversity. We predict similarities in the diversification patterns of dipterocarp trees and gliding vertebrates, and specifically test whether episodic diversification events such as rate shifts and/or mass extinctions were temporally congruent in these groups. We analysed diversification patterns in reconstructed timetrees of Asian dipterocarps, the most speciose gliding vertebrates from different classes (Draco lizards, gliding frogs and Pteromyini squirrels) and compared them with similar-sized clades of non-gliding relatives (Diploderma lizards, Philautus frogs and Callosciurinae squirrels) from Southeast Asia. We found significant declines in net-diversification rates of dipterocarps and the gliding vertebrates during the Pliocene-Pleistocene, but not in the non-gliding groups. We conclude that the homogeneity and temporal coincidence of these rate declines point to a viable ecological correlation between dipterocarps and the gliding vertebrates. Further, we suggest that while the diversification decay in dipterocarps was precipitated by post-Miocene aridification of Asia, the crises in the gliding vertebrates were induced by both events concomitantly.

Following the aridity: Historical biogeography and diversification of the Philodromidae spider genus Petrichus in South America

Aridity conditions and expansion of arid biomes in South America are closely linked to the onset of Andean orogeny since at least 30 Mya. Among arid-associated taxa, spiders belonging to the genus Petrichus are found along the Andes mountains and across the diagonal of open formations of the Chaco and Cerrado domains. In this contribution, we asked whether Petrichus originated prior to the central Andean uplift and what historical processes have promoted their diversification. We time-calibrated the phylogenetic tree of Philodromidae and estimated the divergence times of Petrichus. Considering phylogenetic uncertainty, we assessed biogeographical hypotheses of the historical events associated with the diversification of these spiders in South America. Petrichus originated along the Pacific coastal deserts in the Central Andes during the Early Miocene. The species likely dispersed from the western to the eastern side of the Andes coincidently with the central Andean uplift. The diversification of these spiders is coeval with the expansion of open grassland formations during the Late Miocene and Early Pliocene. Multiple dispersal events occurred from the Monte desert to southern South America and eastward to Chaco between ∼ 8 and 2.5 Mya. The Andes might have played a role as a corridor favoring geographical range expansions and colonization of new environments. In addition, we also suggest that Philodromidae might have an Oligocene origin or earlier. Future analyses based on further evidence and larger taxon sampling should be carried out to corroborate our findings.

Evolutionary Relationships and Range Evolution of Greenhood Orchids (Subtribe Pterostylidinae): Insights From Plastid Phylogenomics

Australia harbours a rich and highly endemic orchid flora with over 90% of native species found nowhere else. However, little is known about the assembly and evolution of Australia's orchid flora. Here, we used a phylogenomic approach to infer evolutionary relationships, divergence times and range evolution in Pterostylidinae (Orchidoideae), the second largest subtribe in the Australian orchid flora, comprising the genera Pterostylis and Achlydosa. Phylogenetic analysis of 75 plastid genes provided well-resolved and supported phylogenies. Intrageneric relationships in Pterostylis were clarified and monophyly of eight of 10 sections supported. Achlydosa was found to not form part of Pterostylidinae and instead merits recognition at subtribal level, as Achlydosinae. Pterostylidinae were inferred to have originated in eastern Australia in the early Oligocene, coinciding with the complete separation of Australia from Antarctica and the onset of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current, which led to profound changes in the world's climate. Divergence of all major lineages occurred during the Miocene, accompanied by increased aridification and seasonality of the Australian continent, resulting in strong vegetational changes from rainforest to more open sclerophyllous vegetation. The majority of extant species were inferred to have originated in the Quaternary, from the Pleistocene onwards. The rapid climatic oscillations during the Pleistocene may have acted as important driver of speciation in Pterostylidinae. The subtribe underwent lineage diversification mainly within its ancestral range, in eastern Australia. Long-distance dispersals to southwest Australia commenced from the late Miocene onwards, after the establishment of the Nullarbor Plain, which constitutes a strong edaphic barrier to mesic plants. Range expansions from the mesic into the arid zone of eastern Australia (Eremaean region) commenced from the early Pleistocene onwards. Extant distributions of Pterostylidinae in other Australasian regions, such as New Zealand and New Caledonia, are of more recent origin, resulting from long-distance dispersals from the Pliocene onwards. Temperate eastern Australia was identified as key source area for dispersals to other Australasian regions.

Investigating the reliability of molecular estimates of evolutionary time when substitution rates and speciation rates vary

Background

An accurate timescale of evolutionary history is essential to testing hypotheses about the influence of historical events and processes, and the timescale for evolution is increasingly derived from analysis of DNA sequences. But variation in the rate of molecular evolution complicates the inference of time from DNA. Evidence is growing for numerous factors, such as life history and habitat, that are linked both to the molecular processes of mutation and fixation and to rates of macroevolutionary diversification. However, the most widely used methods rely on idealised models of rate variation, such as the uncorrelated and autocorrelated clocks, and molecular dating methods are rarely tested against complex models of rate change. One relationship that is not accounted for in molecular dating is the potential for interaction between molecular substitution rates and speciation, a relationship that has been supported by empirical studies in a growing number of taxa. If these relationships are as widespread as current evidence suggests, they may have a significant influence on molecular dates.

Results

We simulate phylogenies and molecular sequences under three different realistic rate variation models—one in which speciation rates and substitution rates both vary but are unlinked, one in which they covary continuously and one punctuated model in which molecular change is concentrated in speciation events, using empirical case studies to parameterise realistic simulations. We test three commonly used “relaxed clock” molecular dating methods against these realistic simulations to explore the degree of error in molecular dates under each model. We find average divergence time inference errors ranging from 12% of node age for the unlinked model when reconstructed under an uncorrelated rate prior using BEAST 2, to up to 91% when sequences evolved under the punctuated model are reconstructed under an autocorrelated prior using PAML.

Conclusions

We demonstrate the potential for substantial errors in molecular dates when both speciation rates and substitution rates vary between lineages. This study highlights the need for tests of molecular dating methods against realistic models of rate variation generated from empirical parameters and known relationships.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12862-022-02015-8.

Diversification Rate is Associated with Rate of Molecular Evolution in Ray-Finned Fish (Actinopterygii)

Understanding the factors that drive diversification of taxa across the tree of life is a key focus of macroevolutionary research. While the effects of life history, ecology, climate and geography on diversity have been studied for many taxa, the relationship between molecular evolution and diversification has received less attention. However, correlations between rates of molecular evolution and diversification rate have been detected in a range of taxa, including reptiles, plants and birds. A correlation between rates of molecular evolution and diversification rate is a prediction of several evolutionary theories, including the evolutionary speed hypothesis which links variation in mutation rates to differences in speciation rates. If it is widespread, such correlations could also have significant practical impacts, if they are not adequately accounted for in phylogenetic inference of evolutionary rates and timescales. Ray-finned fish (Actinopterygii) offer a prime target to test for this relationship due to their extreme variation in clade size suggesting a wide range of diversification rates. We employ both a sister-pairs approach and a whole-tree approach to test for correlations between substitution rate and net diversification. We also collect life history and ecological trait data and account for potential confounding factors including body size, latitude, max depth and reef association. We find evidence to support a relationship between diversification and synonymous rates of nuclear evolution across two published backbone phylogenies, as well as weak evidence for a relationship between mitochondrial nonsynonymous rates and diversification at the genus level.

Divergence and hybridization in sea turtles: Inferences from genome data show evidence of ancient gene flow between species

Reconstructing past events of hybridization and population size changes are required to understand speciation mechanisms and current patterns of genetic diversity, and ultimately contribute to species' conservation. Sea turtles are ancient species currently facing anthropogenic threats including climate change, fisheries, and illegal hunting. Five of the seven extant sea turtle species are known to currently hybridize, especially along the Brazilian coast where some populations can have ~32%-42% of hybrids. Although frequently observed today, it is not clear what role hybridization plays in the evolutionary diversification of this group of reptiles. In this study, we generated whole genome resequencing data of the five globally distributed sea turtle species to estimate a calibrated phylogeny and the population size dynamics, and to understand the role of hybridization in shaping the genomes of these ancient species. Our results reveal discordant species divergence dates between mitochondrial and nuclear genomes, with a high frequency of conflicting trees throughout the nuclear genome suggesting that some sea turtle species frequently hybridized in the past. The reconstruction of the species' demography showed a general decline in effective population sizes with no signs of recovery, except for the leatherback sea turtle. Furthermore, we discuss the influence of reference bias in our estimates. We show long-lasting ancestral gene flow events within Chelonioidea that continued for millions of years after initial divergence. Speciation with gene flow is a common pattern in marine species, and it raises questions whether current hybridization events should be considered as a part of these species' evolutionary history or a conservation issue.

Causes and Consequences of Apparent Timescaling Across All Estimated Evolutionary Rates

Evolutionary rates play a central role in connecting micro- and macroevolution. All evolutionary rate estimates, including rates of molecular evolution, trait evolution, and lineage diversification, share a similar scaling pattern with time: The highest rates are those measured over the shortest time interval. This creates a disconnect between micro- and macroevolution, although the pattern is the opposite of what some might expect: Patterns of change over short timescales predict that evolution has tremendous potential to create variation and that potential is barely tapped by macroevolution. In this review, we discuss this shared scaling pattern across evolutionary rates. We break down possible explanations for scaling into two categories, estimation error and model misspecification, and discuss how both apply to each type of rate. We also discuss the consequences of this ubiquitous pattern, which can lead to unexpected results when comparing ratesover different timescales. Finally, after addressing purely statistical concerns, we explore a few possibilities for a shared unifying explanation across the three types of rates that results from a failure to fully understand and account for how biological processes scale over time.

The role of vicariance and dispersal on the temporal range dynamics of forest vipers in the Neotropical region

The emergence of the diagonal of open/dry vegetations, including Chaco, Cerrado and Caatinga, is suggested to have acted as a dispersal barrier for terrestrial organisms by fragmenting a single large forest that existed in South America into the present Atlantic and Amazon forests. Here we tested the hypothesis that the expansion of the South American diagonal of open/dry landscapes acted as a vicariant process for forest lanceheads of the genus Bothrops, by analyzing the temporal range dynamics of those snakes. We estimated ancestral geographic ranges of the focal lancehead clade and its sister clade using a Bayesian dated phylogeny and the BioGeoBEARS package. We compared nine Maximum Likelihood models to infer ancestral range probabilities and their related biogeographic processes. The best fitting models (DECTS and DIVALIKETS) recovered the ancestor of our focal clade in the Amazon biogeographic region of northwestern South America. Vicariant processes in two different subclades resulted in disjunct geographic distributions in the Amazon and the Atlantic Forest. Dispersal processes must have occurred mostly within the Amazon and the Atlantic Forest and not between them. Our results suggest the fragmentation of a single ancient large forest into the Atlantic and Amazon forests acting as a driver of vicariant processes for the snake lineage studied, highlighting the importance of the diagonal of open/dry landscapes in shaping distribution patterns of terrestrial biota in South America.

A story from the Miocene: Clock-dated phylogeny of Sisymbrium L. (Sisymbrieae, Brassicaceae)

Morphological variability and imprecise generic boundaries have hindered systematic, taxonomical, and nomenclatural studies of Sisymbrium L. (Brassicaceae, Sisymbrieae DC.). The members of this almost exclusively Old-World genus grow mostly on highly porous substrates across open steppe, semidesert, or ruderal habitats in the temperate zone of the Northern Hemisphere and African subtropics. The present study placed the biological history of Sisymbrium L. into time and space and rendered the tribus Sisymbrieae as monotypic. Five nuclear-encoded and three chloroplast-encoded loci of approximately 85% of all currently accepted species were investigated. Several accessions per species covering their whole distribution range allowed for a more representative assessment of intraspecific genetic diversity. In the light of fossil absence, the impact of different secondary calibration methods and taxon sets on time spans was tested, and we showed that such a combinatorial nested dating approach is beneficial. Multigene phylogeny accompanied with a time divergence estimation analysis placed the onset and development of this tribus into the western Irano-Turanian floristic region during the Miocene. Continuous increase in continentality and decrease in temperatures promoted the diversity of the Sisymbrieae, which invaded the open grasslands habitats in Eurasia, Mediterranean, and South Africa throughout the Pliocene and Pleistocene. Our results support the assumption of the Irano-Turanian region as a biodiversity reservoir for adjacent regions.

Unexpected mitochondrial lineage diversity within the genus Alonella Sars, 1862 (Crustacea: Cladocera) across the Northern Hemisphere

Representatives of the genus Alonella Sars (Crustacea: Cladocera: Chydorinae) belong to the smallest known water fleas. Although species of Alonella are widely distributed and often abundant in acidic and mountain water bodies, their diversity is poorly studied. Morphological and genetic approaches have been complicated by the minute size of these microcrustaceans. As a result, taxonomists have avoided revising these species. Here, we present genetic data on Alonella species diversity across the Northern Hemisphere with particular attention to the A. excisa species complex. We analyzed 82 16S rRNA sequences (all newly obtained), and 78 COI sequences (39 were newly obtained). The results revealed at least twelve divergent phylogenetic lineages, possible cryptic species, of Alonella, with different distribution patterns. As expected, the potential species diversity of this genus is significantly higher than traditionally accepted. The A. excisa complex is represented by nine divergent clades in the Northern Hemisphere, some of them have relatively broad distribution ranges and others are more locally distributed. Our results provide a genetic background for subsequent morphological analyses, formal descriptions of Alonella species and detailed phylogeographical studies.

The roles of vicariance and isolation by distance in shaping biotic diversification across an ancient archipelago: evidence from a Seychelles caecilian amphibian

Background

Island systems offer excellent opportunities for studying the evolutionary histories of species by virtue of their restricted size and easily identifiable barriers to gene flow. However, most studies investigating evolutionary patterns and processes shaping biotic diversification have focused on more recent (emergent) rather than ancient oceanic archipelagos. Here, we focus on the granitic islands of the Seychelles, which are unusual among island systems because they have been isolated for a long time and are home to a monophyletic radiation of caecilian amphibians that has been separated from its extant sister lineage for ca. 65–62 Ma. We selected the most widespread Seychelles caecilian species, Hypogeophis rostratus, to investigate intraspecific morphological and genetic (mitochondrial and nuclear) variation across the archipelago (782 samples from nine islands) to identify patterns and test processes that shaped their evolutionary history within the Seychelles.

Results

Overall a signal of strong geographic structuring with distinct northern- and southern-island clusters were identified across all datasets. We suggest that these distinct groups have been isolated for ca. 1.26 Ma years without subsequent migration between them. Populations from the somewhat geographically isolated island of Frégate showed contrasting relationships to other islands based on genetic and morphological data, clustering alternatively with northern-island (genetic) and southern-island (morphological) populations.

Conclusions

Although variation in H. rostratus across the Seychelles is explained more by isolation-by-distance than by adaptation, the genetic-morphological incongruence for affinities of Frégate H. rostratus might be caused by local adaptation over-riding the signal from their vicariant history. Our findings highlight the need of integrative approaches to investigate fine-scale geographic structuring to uncover underlying diversity and to better understand evolutionary processes on ancient, continental islands.

Survival and selection biases in early animal evolution and a source of systematic overestimation in molecular clocks

Important evolutionary events such as the Cambrian Explosion have inspired many attempts at explanation: why do they happen when they do? What shapes them, and why do they eventually come to an end? However, much less attention has been paid to the idea of a 'null hypothesis'-that certain features of such diversifications arise simply through their statistical structure. Such statistical features also appear to influence our perception of the timing of these events. Here, we show in particular that study of unusually large clades leads to systematic overestimates of clade ages from some types of molecular clocks, and that the size of this effect may be enough to account for the puzzling mismatches seen between these molecular clocks and the fossil record. Our analysis of the fossil record of the late Ediacaran to Cambrian suggests that it is likely to be recording a true evolutionary radiation of the bilaterians at this time, and that explanations involving various sorts of cryptic origins for the bilaterians do not seem to be necessary.

Heterogeneity in the rate of molecular sequence evolution substantially impacts the accuracy of detecting shifts in diversification rates

As species richness varies along the tree of life, there is a great interest in identifying factors that affect the rates by which lineages speciate or go extinct. To this end, theoretical biologists have developed a suite of phylogenetic comparative methods that aim to identify where shifts in diversification rates had occurred along a phylogeny and whether they are associated with some traits. Using these methods, numerous studies have predicted that speciation and extinction rates vary across the tree of life. In this study, we show that asymmetric rates of sequence evolution lead to systematic biases in the inferred phylogeny, which in turn lead to erroneous inferences regarding lineage diversification patterns. The results demonstrate that as the asymmetry in sequence evolution rates increases, so does the tendency to select more complicated models that include the possibility of diversification rate shifts. These results thus suggest that any inference regarding shifts in diversification pattern should be treated with great caution, at least until any biases regarding the molecular substitution rate have been ruled out.

Phylogeny of the Eurasian Wren Nannus troglodytes (Aves: Passeriformes: Troglodytidae) reveals deep and complex diversification patterns of Ibero-Maghrebian and Cyrenaican populations

The Mediterranean Basin represents a Global Biodiversity Hotspot where many organisms show high inter- and intraspecific differentiation. Extant phylogeographic patterns of terrestrial circum-Mediterranean faunas were mainly shaped through Pleistocene range shifts and range fragmentations due to retreat into different glacial refugia. Thus, several extant Mediterranean bird species have diversified by surviving glaciations in different hospitable refugia and subsequently expanded their distribution ranges during the Holocene. Such a scenario was also suggested for the Eurasian Wren (Nannus troglodytes) despite the lack of genetic data for most Mediterranean subspecies. Our phylogenetic multi-locus analysis comprised 18 out of 28 currently accepted subspecies of N. troglodytes, including all but one subspecies which are present in the Mediterranean Basin. The resulting phylogenetic reconstruction dated the onset of the entire Holarctic radiation of three Nannus species to the early Pleistocene. In the Eurasian Wren, two North African subspecies represented separate basal lineages from the Maghreb (N. t. kabylorum) and from the Libyan Cyrenaica (N. t. juniperi), being only distantly related to other Mediterranean populations. Although N. troglodytes appeared to be paraphyletic with respect to the Nearctic Winter Wren (N. hiemalis), respective nodes did not receive strong statistical support. In contrast, paraphyly of the Ibero-Maghrebian taxon N. t. kabylorum was strongly supported. Southern Iberian populations of N. t. kabylorum did not clade with Maghrebian populations of the same subspecies but formed a sister clade to a highly diverse European clade (including nominate N. t. troglodytes and eight further taxa). In accordance with a pattern also found in other birds, Eurasian populations were split into a western clade (Europe, Caucasus) and an eastern clade (Central Asia, Sino-Himalayas, East Asia). This complex phylogeographic pattern revealed cryptic diversification in N. troglodytes, especially in the Iberio-Maghrebian region.

Nonlinear diversification rates of linguistic phylogenies over the Holocene

The expansion of the human species out of Africa in the Pleistocene, and the subsequent development of agriculture in the Holocene, resulted in waves of linguistic diversification and replacement across the planet. Analogous to the growth of populations or the speciation of biological organisms, languages diversify over time to form phylogenies of language families. However, the dynamics of this diversification process are unclear. Bayesian methods applied to lexical and phonetic data have created dated linguistic phylogenies for 18 language families encompassing ~3,000 of the world's ~7,000 extant languages. In this paper we use these phylogenies to quantify how fast languages expand and diversify through time both within and across language families. The overall diversification rate of languages in our sample is ~0.001 yr-1 (or a doubling time of ~700 yr) over the last 6,000 years with evidence for nonlinear dynamics in language diversification rates over time, where both within and across language families, diversity initially increases rapidly and then slows. The expansion, evolution, and diversification of languages as they spread around the planet was a non-constant process.