Distinctive lung cancer incidence trends among men and women attributable to the period effect in Shanghai: An analysis spanning 42 years

Secular-Trend Analysis of the Incidence Rate of Lung Squamous Cell Carcinoma in Taiwan

Lung cancer is the leading cause of cancer deaths worldwide, and squamous cell carcinoma (SQC) is Taiwan's second most common lung carcinoma histotype. This study aimed to investigate changes in the long-term trend of the SQC incidence rate in Taiwan. SQC cases between 1985 and 2019 were adopted from Taiwan's Cancer Registry System; the age-adjusted incidence rate was calculated using the World Standard Population in 2000. The long-term trends of the age, period, and birth cohort effect of SQC incidence rates were estimated using the SEER Age-Period-Cohort Web Tool. The results revealed that the incidence of lung carcinoma in Taiwan increased, while the incidence of SQC exhibited a slight decrease during this study period. The age rate ratio (ARR) of the incidence rate in men declined gradually, and the period effect changed more slowly for women than men. The cohort effect formed a bimodal curve. The annual percentage change results for women indicated that the ARR decreased from 1.652 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.422, 1.9192) at 30 to 34 years to 0.559 (95% CI: 0.4988, 0.6265) at 75 to 79 years; the period effect decreased from 1.2204 (95% CI: 1.1148, 1.336) in 1995 to 1999 to 0.608 (95% CI: 0.5515, 0.6704) in 2015 to 2019, with a greater decline in the later period. The cohort effect was unimodal, with the SQC risk value peaking in the 1915 birth cohort and exhibiting a steady decline thereafter. The results of this study suggest that a decrease in the smoking rate may be the reason for the decline in the incidence of SQC, and we observed a similar trend between SQC and the smoking rate in men.

The Introduction of Low-Dose CT Imaging and Lung Cancer Overdiagnosis in Chinese Women

BACKGROUND

Overdiagnosis of lung cancer by low-dose CT (LDCT) screening has raised concerns globally. LDCT screening has been used widely in employee health examinations in China since 2011.

RESEARCH QUESTION

Has the increasing use of LDCT in low-risk populations in China led to lung cancer overdiagnosis?

STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS

A total of 34,152 incident cases of and 27,208 deaths resulting from lung cancer in a population of approximately 3 million were derived from the Cancer Surveillance of Shanghai between 2002 and 2017. Changes in stage-specific and histologic type-specific incidence and mortality and incidence rate ratio (IRR) relative to the base year 2002 or to the period 2002 through 2005 were calculated by sex and were used to evaluate potential overdiagnosisve of lung cancer.

RESULTS

In men, both age-adjusted incidence of and mortality as a result of lung cancer decreased significantly up to 2008 and thereafter remained stable; in women, the incidence increased rapidly from 2011 (annual percentage change, 11.98%; 95% CI, 9.57%-14.45%), whereas the mortality declined persistently. The upward trend of incidence mainly was observed in lung adenocarcinoma in both sexes, with a sharper increase from 2012 through 2017. In men, the incidence of early-stage cancer increased 6.9 per 100,000 (95% CI, 5.1-8.7 per 100,000) and was accompanied by 5.5 per 100,000 (95% CI, -9.2 to -1.7 per 100,000) decline in late-stagecancer from 2002 through 2017. In women, early-stage incidence rose 16.1 per 100,000 (95% CI, 14.0-18.3 per 100,000), but no significant decline in late-stage cancer was found (absolute difference, -0.6 per 100,000; 95% CI, -2.8 to 1.7 per 100,000). The IRR was highest in most recent period and increased most in young women, mainly for early-stage cancer or lung adenocarcinoma.

INTERPRETATION

The results provide evidence at a population level for lung cancer overdiagnosis in Chinese women resulting from increasing LDCT screening in the low-risk populations. Criteria for LDCT screening and management of screening-detected nodules need to be addressed fully for expanded application of LDCT screening in China.

Low-dose computed tomography for lung cancer screening in Anhui, China: A randomized controlled trial

Background

Lung cancer is the leading cause of cancer-related death worldwide, with risk factors such as age and smoking. Low-dose computed tomography screening can reduce lung cancer mortality. However, its effectiveness in Asian populations remains unclear. Most Asian women with lung cancer are non-smokers who have not been screened. We conducted a randomized controlled trial to evaluate the performance of low-dose computed tomography screening in a Chinese population, including high-risk smokers and non-smokers exposed to passive smoking. The baseline data are reported in this study.

Methods

Between May and December 2019, eligible participants were randomized in a ratio of 1:1:1 to a screening (two arms) or control cohort. Non-calcified nodules/masses with a diameter >4 mm on low-dose computed tomography were considered positive findings.

Results

In total, 600 patients (mean age, 59.1 ± 6.9 years) underwent low-dose computed tomography. Women accounted for 31.5% (189/600) of patients; 89.9% (170/189) were non-smokers/passive smokers. At baseline, the incidence of lung cancer was 1.8% (11/600). The incidence of lung cancer was significantly lower in smokers than in female non-smokers/passive smokers (1.0% [4/415] vs. 4.1% [7/170], respectively; P=0.017). Stage 0-I lung cancer accounted for 90.9% (10/11) of cases.

Conclusions

We demonstrate the importance of including active smokers and female non-smokers/passive smokers in lung cancer screening programs. Further studies are needed to explore the risk factors, and long-term cost-benefit of screening Asian non-smoking women.

Clinical trial registration

http://chictr.org.cn/showproj.aspx?proj=39003, identifier ChiCTR1900023197.

Temporal trends in lung cancer mortality and years of life lost in Wuhan, China, 2010-2019

Objective

Lung cancer is responsible for millions of deaths yearly, and its burden is severe worldwide. This study aimed to investigate the burden of lung cancer in the population of Wuhan based on the surveillance data from 2010 to 2019.

Methods

Data of this study was obtained from the Mortality Register System established by the Wuhan Center for Disease Control and Prevention. The study systematically analyzed the burden of lung cancer deaths in the population of Wuhan and its 13 administrative regions from 2010 to 2019 via the Joinpoint regression models, Age-Period-Cohort (APC) models, and decomposition analysis.

Results

This study found the upward and downward trends in the age-standardized mortality rates (ASMRs) and age-standardized years of life lost rates (ASYLLRs) of lung cancer from 2010 to 2019. In Joinpoint regression models, the corresponding estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) were 1.00% and -1.90%, 0.60%, and -3.00%, respectively. In APC models, lung cancer mortality tended to increase with age for both sexes in Wuhan, peaking at the 85-89 age group; The period effects for different populations have started to gradually decline in recent years. In addition, the cohort effects indicated that the risk of lung cancer death was highest among those born in the 1950s-1955s, at 1.08 (males) and 1.01 (females). Among all administrative districts in Wuhan, the ASMR of lung cancer in the Xinzhou District has remained the highest over the study period. In decomposition analysis, both population aging (P<0.01) and population growth (P<0.01) aggravated (Z>0) lung cancer deaths in the Wuhan population.

Conclusions

The burden of lung cancer death in the Wuhan population has shown a gradual decline in recent years, but the impact of aging and population growth on lung cancer mortality should not be ignored. Therefore, lung cancer surveillance must be strengthened to reduce the burden of lung cancer in Wuhan.

Secular Trends of Mortality and Years of Life Lost Due to Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease in Wuhan, China from 2010 to 2019: Age-Period-Cohort Analysis

BACKGROUND

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) has been an important public health issue in China. This study aimed to analyze the temporal trends in mortality and years of life lost (YLL) from COPD, and explore the effects of age, period, and cohort in Wuhan, China from 2010 to 2019.

METHODS

Data were collected from the cause of death surveillance system in Wuhan. Age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR), age-standardized YLL rate (ASYR) and the estimated annual percent changes (EAPC) were calculated to evaluate the temporal trends. The age-period-cohort (APC) model was adopted to estimate the age, period, and cohort effects.

RESULTS

From 2010 to 2019, COPD accounted for 26,051.15 deaths and 394,659.58 person years YLL in Wuhan. Recently, the death burden of COPD in Wuhan has somewhat improved, especially after 2015, with declining trends in ASMR and ASYR. Additionally, the ASMR and ASYR of COPD was higher in males. And these of males showed the overall upward trends, with EAPCs of 1.06 (0.13, 2.00) and 1.21 (0.12, 2.31), respectively, while females showed downward trends since 2010. According to APC model, the age effect of COPD increased with age, and the cohort risk ratios (RRs) followed the overall downward trends. Period RRs for the Wuhan population generally tended to rise and then fall, with females showing a clear downward trend after 2015, while period RRs for males maintained an upward trend throughout the study period.

CONCLUSIONS

Recently, the death burden from COPD in Wuhan has improved, especially after 2015, with improvements in ASMR, ASYR and period RRs. Sex differences still exist. COPD posed a greater threat to the elderly, especially males. Public health managers should continue to execute more targeted programs to lessen the death burden of COPD in Wuhan.

Gender disparities in incidence and projections of lung cancer in China and the United States from 1978 to 2032: an age-period-cohort analysis

PURPOSE

Lung cancer incidences tend to be higher among males than females in both China and the United States, yet secular incidence patterns are different due to distinct population and environmental exposures. We examined long-term and future trends of lung cancer incidence, as well as the associations of age, period, and cohort effects with gender disparities.

METHODS

Using data from the Cancer Incidence in Five Continents from 1978 to 2012, we calculated age-standardized, age-specific incidence, and male-to-female incidence rate ratios (IRR), and conducted an age-period-cohort analysis. The average annual percentage change (AAPC) of the trends was obtained by Joinpoint Regression. Bayesian age-period-cohort analysis was also conducted to project incidences to 2032.

RESULTS

In China, age-standardized incidence revealed a decreasing trend among males, but showed increasing trends among the younger age groups (30-54 years) in females. Age-standardized incidence rates of males decreased but remained stable among females from 1972 to 2012 in the United States. Male-to-female incidence rate ratios narrowed in both countries and reversed among younger birth cohorts in the United States. Gender disparities are expected to continue to diminish in both countries, and incidence among females appears to exceed that of males in the United States by around 2023-2027.

CONCLUSION

Gender disparities in lung cancer incidence persist and will continue into the future in both countries, but our findings suggested that smoking may play different roles in gender disparities in lung cancer incidence between the two countries. Further population-based epidemiological studies among females in China are imperative.

Development and evaluation of cancer differentiation analysis technology: a novel biophysics-based cancer screening method

BACKGROUND

Routine health checkup is an essential strategy for monitoring population health and maintaining healthy workforces. However, there was a lack of cancer screening tests among routine health checkups due to high costs and unreliable methods.

METHODS

We conducted a two-stage study to evaluate the value of a blood test, Cancer Differentiation Analysis (CDA^TM), which is developed to differentiate the blood samples of healthy individuals from those of cancer patients through measuring and analyzing multiple biophysical properties.

RESULTS

The first stage of a cross-sectional study included 75,942 healthy individuals in routine health checkup, and the second stage of a prospective population-based cohort included 1,957 healthy community members. Forty-eight and ten cancer cases were identified among cross-sectional study and prospective population-based cohort, respectively. Using a pre-determined cutoff, we found that the CDA™ test could differentiate blood samples between healthy and cancer individuals with >93% specificity and >55% sensitivity in both studies.

CONCLUSIONS

With high specificity and moderate sensitivity of CDA™ test, our study indicates that we can analyze biophysical properties in the blood to rapidly and reliably screen healthy individuals from cancer patients in a health checkup setting where most individuals are healthy or with average risk of cancer.

Increasing Gap Between Thyroid Cancer Incidence and Mortality in Urban Shanghai, China: An Analysis Spanning 43 Years

OBJECTIVE

To examine the secular trends of thyroid cancer incidence and mortality and to estimate the proportion of thyroid cancer cases potentially attributable to overdiagnosis.

METHODS

Data on thyroid cancer cases from 1973 to 2015 were obtained from the Shanghai Cancer Registry. The average annual percent change (AAPC) was evaluated using the joinpoint regression analysis. The age, period, and birth cohort effects were assessed using an age-period-cohort model. The overdiagnosis of thyroid cancer cases was estimated based on the difference between observed and expected incidences using the rates of Nordic countries as reference.

RESULTS

From 1973 to 2015, the number of thyroid cancer cases was 23 117, and 75% of the patients were women. The age-standardized rates were seven- to eightfold higher from 2013 to 2015 than from 1973 to 1977. Compared with relatively stable mortality, thyroid cancer incidence was dramatically increased from 2002 to 2015 in both sexes, with significant trends (men: AAPC = 21.84%, 95% CI: 18.77%-24.98%, P < .001; women: AAPC = 18.55%, 95% CI: 16.49%-20.64%, P < .001). The proportion of overdiagnosis has gradually increased over time, rising from 68% between 2003 and 2007 to more than 90% between 2013 and 2015. This increasing trend appeared to be similar between men and women.

CONCLUSION

An increasing gap between thyroid cancer incidence and mortality was observed in Shanghai, and overdiagnosis has contributed substantially to the rise of incidence, which calls for an urgent update on the practice of thyroid examination.

Transcriptome Based Estrogen Related Genes Biomarkers for Diagnosis and Prognosis in Non-small Cell Lung Cancer

Background

Lung cancer is the tumor with the highest morbidity and mortality, and has become a global public health problem. The incidence of lung cancer in men has declined in some countries and regions, while the incidence of lung cancer in women has been slowly increasing. Therefore, the aim is to explore whether estrogen-related genes are associated with the incidence and prognosis of lung cancer.

Methods

We obtained all estrogen receptor genes and estrogen signaling pathway genes in The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA), and then compared the expression of each gene in tumor tissues and adjacent normal tissues for lung adenocarcinoma (LUAD) and lung squamous cell carcinoma (LUSC) separately. Survival analysis was performed of the differentially expressed genes in LUAD and LUSC patients separately. The diagnostic and prognostic values of the candidate genes were validated in the Gene Expression Omnibus (GEO) datasets.

Results

We found 5 estrogen receptor genes and 66 estrogen pathway genes in TCGA. A total of 50 genes were differently expressed between tumor tissues and adjacent normal tissues and 6 of the 50 genes were related to the prognosis of LUAD in TCGA. 56 genes were differently expressed between tumor tissues and adjacent normal tissues and none of the 56 genes was related to the prognosis of LUSC in TCGA. GEO datasets validated that the 6 genes (SHC1, FKBP4, NRAS, PRKCD, KRAS, ADCY9) had different expression between tumor tissues and adjacent normal tissues in LUAD, and 3 genes (FKBP4, KRAS, ADCY9) were related to the prognosis of LUAD.

Conclusions

The expressions of FKBP4 and ADCY9 are related to the pathogenesis and prognosis of LUAD. FKBP4 and ADCY9 may serve as biomarkers in LUAD screening and prognosis prediction in clinical settings.

Time trends of major cancers incidence and mortality in Guangzhou, China 2004-2015: A Joinpoint and Age-Period-Cohort Analysis

Background

Cancer is an important focus of public health worldwide. This study aims to provide a comprehensive overview of temporal trends in incidence and mortality of leading cancer in Guangzhou, China from 2004 to 2015.

Methods

Data were collected from the population‐based registry in Guangzhou. Age‐standardized incidence rate (ASIR) and age‐standardized mortality rate (ASMR) were calculated and Joinpoint regression was used for evaluating the average annual percent changes (AAPC) among the entire study period and the estimated annual percent changes (EAPC) in time segments. The effects of age, period, and birth cohort were assessed by the age–period–cohort model.

Results

The age‐standardized incidence and mortality by the world standard population decreased significantly among males with AAPC of −1.7% (95% CI: −3.0%, 0.2%) and −2.7% (95% CI: −4.3%, −1.1%) for all malignancies during 2004–2015, while among females, the age‐standardized incidence had a non‐significant reduction with AAPC of −1.3% (95% CI: −2.8%, 0.2%) and the age‐standardized mortality demonstrated a remarkable decline (AAPC −2.0%, 95% CI: −3.6%, −0.3%). For males, the most commonly diagnosed cancers were trachea, bronchus, and lung (TBL), liver, colorectal, nasopharyngeal, stomach, and prostate cancer. For females, breast, TBL, colorectal, liver stomach, and thyroid cancer ranked the top. Unfavorable trends were observed in ASIR of colorectal, thyroid, and prostate cancer. APC models yielded different ages, periods, and birth cohort effect patterns by cancer sites.

Conclusions

Cancer burden remained a public health challenge in Guangzhou as the aging population and lifestyles changes, despite declines in incidence and mortality rates in some cancers. Surveillance of cancer trends contributed to valuable insights into cancer prevention and control.

Association between sex hormones regulation-related SNP rs12233719 and lung cancer risk among never-smoking Chinese women

BACKGROUND

The mechanism of rapidly increased non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) among never-smoking Chinese women has not been elucidated. Ovarian sex steroid hormones have been suggested to counteract lung cancer development, and sex hormone-binding globulin (SHBG) is essential in sex hormones regulation. This study aims to exploring single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in genomic regions associated with SHBG concentrations that contributed to never-smoking female NSCLC.

METHODS

Candidate genes were selected by a genome-wide association (GWAS) meta-analysis and gene expression profiles of never-smoking NSCLC of Chinese women. The candidate SNPs limited to common minor allele frequency (MAF), missense variant, ethnic heterogeneous distribution, and SNPs were genotyped using the TaqMan method. A two-stage case-control design was adopted for exploration and validation of associations between candidate SNPs and risk of NSCLC. All participants were never-smoking Chinese women. Chi-square test and multivariate logistic regression were applied.

RESULTS

Beginning with 12 genomic regions associated with circulating SHBG concentrations and gene expression profiles from never-smoking NSCLC in Chinese women, candidate SNP rs12233719 and rs7439366 both located in candidate gene UGT₂ B_7, which may be related to circulating SHBG concentrations and cancer risk, were identified. A two-stage case-control study was conducted in Shenyang and Tianjin represented as the training stage and validation stage, respectively. Under the dominant model, compared to individuals with the wild G/G genotype, the adjusted OR of those with the T allele was 1.58 (95% CI: 1.15-2.16) in Chinese Shenyang training set, and was 1.49 (95% CI: 1.02-2.18) in Chinese Tianjin validation set, both accompanied with a significant trend relationship consistently. UGT2B7 was upregulated in female NSCLC patients' tumor tissues and was associated with a poor prognosis in NSCLC.

CONCLUSION

Our findings indicated that a sex hormones regulation-related SNP rs12233719 was associated with never-smoking female lung cancer risk, which might partially explain NSCLC-susceptibility in Chinese women.

Distinctive lung cancer incidence trends among men and women attributable to the period effect in Shanghai: An analysis spanning 42 years

Background

Many previous studies reported secular trend of lung cancer incidence and mortality, but little is known about the possible reasons for these trends.

Methods

Data were obtained from Shanghai Cancer Registry. Age‐standardized rates were calculated and average annual percent changes (AAPCs) were evaluated by Joinpoint regression. Age, period, and birth cohort effects were assessed by age‐period‐cohort models.

Results

From 1973 to 2010, compared with long‐time slowly increasing trend in women, male lung cancer incidence had significantly decreased between 2001 and 2009. After that lung cancer incidence rising sharply in women (AAPC = 14.13%, 95%CI: 2.68%‐26.86%, P = .016) and similar rising trends without statistical significance in men (AAPC = 2.96, 95%CI: −2.47%‐8.69%, P = .281) between 2010 and 2014. Age‐period cohort model showed the different patterns of period effects for lung cancer incidence between men and women. The period effects for lung cancer incidence showed rising effect for women, whereas there was decline effect for lung cancer incidence for men. On the other hand, the model showed a significant period effect in both genders with a similar fashion in mortality, yielding steady falling trends during the entire study period.

Conclusions

The distinctive patterns of lung cancer incidence between men and women may be attributable to significant period effects, which reflected the changes in public health policies or diagnostic practices and highlighted the urgent of continued monitoring of gender‐specific risk factors for lung cancer incidence.