The Dow is Killing Me: Risky Health Behaviors and the Stock Market

"Buy High, Sell Low": A Qualitative Study of Cryptocurrency Traders Who Experience Harm

The constant, substantial price fluctuations of cryptocurrency allow traders to engage in highly speculative trading that closely resembles gambling. With significant financial loss associated with adverse mental health outcomes, it is important to investigate the impact that market participation has on mental health. Therefore, we conducted interviews with 17 participants who self-reported problems due to trading. Thematic analysis was conducted revealing themes: (1) factors in engagement, (2) impacts of trading and (3) harm reduction. Factors in engagement captured factors that motivated and sustained cryptocurrency trading. Impacts of trading outlined how cryptocurrency trading positively and negatively impacted participants. Harm reduction described methods participants employed to reduce mental distress from trading. Our study provides novel insights into the adverse impacts of cryptocurrency trading across multiple domains, especially mental health, relationships and finances. They also indicate the importance of further research on effective coping strategies for distress caused by financial loss from trading. Additionally, our study reveals the significant role social environments play on participants' expectations and intentions regarding cryptocurrency trading. These social networks extend beyond real-life relationship to include celebrity and influencer endorsement. This encourages investigation into the content of cryptocurrency promotions and the influence they have on individuals' decision to trade.

Road traffic mortality and economic uncertainty: Evidence from the United States

Previous studies have shown that financial turbulence is associated with a short-term increase in road traffic collisions, largely due to drivers' emotional state, distraction, sleep deprivation and alcohol consumption. In this paper we advance this debate by studying the association between economic uncertainty and road traffic mortality in the United States. We used a State-level uncertainty index and State fatalities for the period 2008-2017 and found that a one standard deviation increase in economic uncertainty is associated with an additional 0.013 monthly deaths per 100,000 people per State, on average (a 1.1% increase) - or 40 more monthly deaths in total nationwide. Results are robust to different model specifications. Our findings show that, similar to drink-driving, it is important to raise awareness about driving when distracted due to financial worries and during periods of economic uncertainty.

Put your FTSE down: Wealth shocks and road traffic collisions

This paper examines the impact of a key source of wealth (the stock market) on road traffic collisions. Using data on over 2 million road accidents we do not find a linear relationship between stock prices and road crashes (fatal or otherwise) in Great Britain. However, we do find a V-shaped effect - collisions respond to the absolute change in stock market returns. The results are robust to a series of falsification exercises that potentially support a causal interpretation. We also examine another source of wealth that has not previously been examined - house prices. Similarly, we do not find that changes in monthly house prices have an impact on accidents, but a symmetric V-shaped is also shown for slight and serious accidents.

Music preferences as an instrument of emotional self-regulation along the business cycle

This paper studies the influence of macroeconomic conditions on subjective well-being and music preferences. The macroeconomic cycle exerts an effect on happiness and well-being that consumers counterbalance by modifying music consumption. We use machine learning techniques to make a weekly classification of the top 100 songs of Billboard Hot 100 into positive and negative lyrics over the period 1958-2019. When unemployment is high, society generally prefers more positive songs. Other macroeconomic indicators such as high inflation, high interest rates or low stock market prices also affect musical preferences. These results provide initial evidence regarding the use of cultural consumption to offset business cycle oscillations.

Large-scale societal dynamics are reflected in human mood and brain

The stock market is a bellwether of socio-economic changes that may directly affect individual well-being. Using large-scale UK-biobank data generated over 14 years, we applied specification curve analysis to rigorously identify significant associations between the local stock market index (FTSE100) and 479,791 UK residents' mood, as well as their alcohol intake and blood pressure adjusting the results for a large number of potential confounders, including age, sex, linear and non-linear effects of time, research site, other stock market indexes. Furthermore, we found similar associations between FTSE100 and volumetric measures of affective brain regions in a subsample (n = 39,755; measurements performed over 5.5 years), which were particularly strong around phase transitions characterized by maximum volatility in the market. The main findings did not depend on applied effect-size estimation criteria (linear methods or mutual information criterion) and were replicated in two independent US-based studies (Parkinson's Progression Markers Initiative; n = 424; performed over 2.5 years and MyConnectome; n = 1; 81 measurements over 1.5 years). Our results suggest that phase transitions in the society, indexed by stock market, exhibit close relationships with human mood, health and the affective brain from an individual to population level.

Effects of catastrophic financial loss on suicide risk: evidence from Korean stock market crash in October 2008

PURPOSE

The negative effect of catastrophic financial loss on suicide risk is widely perceived but hardly studied in-depth because of various difficulties in designing studies. We empirically investigated the effect utilizing the stock market crash event in October 2008 in South Korea.

METHODS

We extracted stock market investor data from Korea Exchanges, and mortality data from Microdata Integrated Service of individuals aged 30-60 years. We calculated age-standardized monthly suicide rate per 100,000 persons according to sex and age, and developed intervention analysis with multiplicative seasonal ARIMA model to isolate the effect of the stock market crash on suicide rate.

RESULTS

More than 11% of people aged 30-60 years were directly investing in stocks during stock market crash. In October 2008, both KOSPI and KOSDAQ indexes dropped by 22.67% and 30.14%, respectively. In November 2008, the suicide rate in males 30-60 years increased by > 40% compared to the expected levels if there had been no market crash, and in females aged 30-40 and 40-50 years, it increased by 101.84% and 74.81%, respectively. The effect appeared to persist in males, whereas it degenerated with time in females during our sampling period. Suicide was more pronounced in younger age groups and females.

CONCLUSION

In this first in-depth study, the effect of catastrophic financial loss negatively affects suicide risk for an extended period, indicating health and financial authorities should provide a long-term financial and psychological support for people with extreme financial loss.

La Dolce Vita in times of harshness: Prevalence of health-related behaviors during the great recession in Italy

The current work investigates the heterogeneous effect of the 2008 recession on health outcomes in the Italian population across the main geographic areas. Health outcomes were proxied by individual-level information on healthy/risky behaviors, such as individual fruit and vegetable consumption, frequency of bodyweight monitoring, smoking, and alcohol intake. These health outcomes were employed as dependent variables in the empirical model that included some socioeconomic individual aspects (e.g., age, gender, education, and income source), as well as consumer price index data for tobacco products, alcoholic beverages, and fruit and vegetables. In this work, we used twelve years of data (2005-2016) from the Italian Multipurpose Household Survey (MHS), which collects individual self-reported characteristics, augmented with information on unemployment rates at the regional level, as well as with consumer price indexes for the goods analyzed. The results indicated that the 2008 economic crisis lowered the probability that individuals engage in healthy behaviors, such as self-monitoring their bodyweight, mostly among individuals in northern and central areas. Likewise, the economic downturn increased the probability of smoking regardless of the geographic area, with a larger magnitude in individuals in northern and central areas, whose health outcomes were more impacted by the economic downturn than individuals living in the southern and island areas.

Varieties of Financial Stressors and Midlife Health Problems

OBJECTIVES

Financial stressors such as wealth loss, indebtedness, and bankruptcy have gained the attention of public health scholars since the Great Recession. In this study, we extend this area of research by comparing the mental and physical impact of multiple financial stressors during midlife, a pivotal period in the life course for wealth accumulation and disease onset.

METHODS

With data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1979 (www.nlsinfo.org), an ongoing survey of adult men and women in the U.S., we used logistic regression to estimate the associations between financial stressors and the risk of a psychiatric disorder or high blood pressure diagnosis from ages 31-39 in 1996 to ages 50-59 in 2016 (N = 7,143). Financial stressors include multiple types of wealth loss, debt, and bankruptcy.

RESULTS

Even after adjusting for a comprehensive set of confounders, many of the financial stressors we considered had similar associations with the risk of a psychiatric disorder, whereas only debt and bankruptcy were associated with the risk of high blood pressure. The best fitting models for both health outcomes included a simple indicator of indebtedness. Stock losses were not significantly associated with either health outcome.

DISCUSSION

Given the recent volatility in the U.S. economy, our results highlight the potential loss of health that may occur if nothing is done to prevent economically vulnerable populations from sliding into financial crisis. Our results also emphasize the need for additional research to develop individual-level interventions to improve health among those already experiencing financial difficulties.

Does non-fundamental news related to COVID-19 matter for stock returns? Evidence from Shanghai stock market

The COVID-19 outbreak generates various types of news that affect economic and financial systems. No studies have assessed the effects of such news on financial markets. This study sheds light on the impact of non-fundamental news related to the COVID-19 pandemic on the liquidity and returns volatility. Because we examined extreme events, we performed quantile regression on daily data from December 31, 2019 to the end of lockdown restrictions in China on April 7, 2020. Results showed that the non-fundamental news, as the number of deaths and cases related to the COVID-19, raised the stock market returns volatility and reduced the level of stock market liquidity, increasing overall risk, whereas fundamental macroeconomic news remained largely immaterial for the stock market. These findings are explained by a knock-on effect because the health system's inability to manage and treat a high number of COVID-19 patients in intensive care led the country to implement a lockdown and the global economy to largely shut down.

Coronavirus Disease 2019 Hangover: A Rising Tide of Alcohol Use Disorder and Alcohol-Associated Liver Disease

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has had a tremendous global impact since it began in November of 2019. However, there are concerns that the COVID-19 pandemic will not affect all equally and that some populations will be particularly vulnerable. Relevant to liver disease, patients with alcohol use disorder (AUD) and alcohol-associated liver disease (ALD) may be among the populations that are the most severely impacted. The reasons for this include being at a higher risk of severe COVID-19 infection due to a depressed immune system and high-risk underlying comorbidities, the injurious effect of COVID-19 on the liver, the inability to attend regular visits with providers, diversion of hospital resources, and social isolation leading to psychological decompensation and increased drinking or relapse. As a result, we fear that there will be a dramatic rising tide of alcohol relapse, admissions for decompensated ALD, and an increase in newly diagnosed patients with AUD/ALD post-COVID-19 pandemic. Providers and their institutions should implement preemptive strategies such as telehealth and aggressive patient outreach programs now to curb this anticipated problem. Liver transplantation (LT) centers should adapt to the pandemic by considering leniency to some LT candidates with ALD who cannot access appropriate alcohol treatment due to the current situation. In conclusion, the COVID-19 pandemic will likely be especially detrimental to patients with AUD/ALD, and actions need to be taken now to limit the scope of this anticipated problem.

An empirical investigation of the relationship between business performance and suicide in the US

Previous research suggests that mortality rates behave pro-cyclically with respect to economic growth, with suicides representing a notable exception that consistently increase in economic downturns. Over recent years, there is ample evidence in the literature that the working environment in the US has deteriorated significantly, suggesting that suicide rates may not necessarily behave in a counter-cyclical manner with business performance. Utilising recent suicide data, this study empirically tests the hypothesis that adverse working conditions over recent years may have resulted in a pro-cyclical relationship between business performance and suicide. Unlike previous studies, we use a stock market index, a leading macroeconomic indicator, to measure economic conditions from a business perspective. We employ the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) co-integration methodology to study the long-run relationship between monthly S&P500 stock market data and age and gender-specific suicide rates during the period January 1999 to July 2017. Our results highlight substantial differences in age groups responses to fluctuations in business performance. We find a clear positive association between business performance and suicide rates for the youngest males and females aged 15-34 years, indicating that there is a human cost associated with improved business performance. Additionally, we investigate the association between economic insecurity, a unique aspect of the recent deterioration in the working environment, using the Implied Volatility Index "VIX" and age and gender-specific suicide rates. Our findings do not support a population-wide adverse impact of economic insecurity on suicide incidences. The exception was males aged 15-24, and females aged 55-64 for whom we find a significant positive association. Teaching work-life management and problem-solving skills to manage everyday work stressors may be important strategies to mitigate the psychological cost of business successes.

When the market drives you crazy: Stock market returns and fatal car accidents

This paper provides evidence that daily fluctuations in the stock market have important - and hitherto neglected - spillover effects on fatal car accidents. Using the universe of fatal car accidents in the United States from 1990 to 2015, we find that a one standard deviation reduction in daily stock market returns is associated with a 0.6% increase in fatal car accidents that happen after the stock market opening. A battery of falsification tests supports a causal interpretation of this finding. Our results are consistent with immediate emotions stirred by a negative stock market performance influencing the number of fatal accidents, in particular among inexperienced investors.

Wealth and Obesity Among US Adults Entering Midlife

OBJECTIVE

This study examines the relationship between wealth and obesity among adults entering midlife and whether this relationship varies by sex, race, and measure of wealth.

METHODS

The data were obtained from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1979 (NLSY-79). Population-averaged models were used to examine the associations between multiple measures of wealth and obesity among 6,979 respondents while controlling for education, occupation, income, and relevant sociodemographic variables.

RESULTS

The analysis found a robust association between wealth and midlife obesity as well as heterogeneity in the wealth-obesity association across sex, race, and measure of wealth. With the exception of black men, net worth generally had a significant and inverse relationship with obesity. The net worth-obesity association was largest among women and was driven primarily by home value, in addition to savings and debt for black women. Although home value was significant for white men, the components of wealth were generally unrelated to obesity among men.

CONCLUSIONS

The association between wealth and obesity was generally robust but also complex, depending on sex, race, and measure of wealth. Research that does not consider multiple components of wealth may overlook the importance of economic resources in shaping obesity rates in the US population.

Stock Market Exposure and Anxiety in a Turbulent Market: Evidence From China

The stock market in China has experienced significant turbulence since July 2014, including a bull market. In this paper, we propose that exposure to stock (defined as the condition of being exposed to both stock and stock-related information) can induce anxiety disorder when the market is in a turbulent period. To examine this prediction, we designed two studies in which we operationalized exposure to stock in two different ways. In Study 1, a panel analysis of a longitudinal data set for the Chinese stock market from January 2014 to July 2015 demonstrated that exposure to stock had a significant positive impact on individuals' anxiety disorder, even in a bull market. Study 2, employing priming experiments, further supported that a temporarily primed "stock mindset" subconsciously increased participants' anxiety. In addition, Study 2 revealed that physical exercise helped attenuate the detrimental impact of exposure to stock on mental well-being. This research demonstrates the detrimental impact of exposure to a turbulent stock market - even a rising market - on individuals' mental health. Furthermore, it identifies an effective way to buffer such impact, and suggests ways for social scientists to employ search engines and the related data sets to obtain psychological or behavioral information (especially emotions and emotion disorders) by examining longitudinal "Big Data."

The effects of import competition on health in the local economy

We provide evidence that average mental, physical, and general health worsens for employed workers in local U.S. labor markets exposed to greater import competition from China. The effects are greatest for mental health. Moving a region from the 25th to 75th percentiles of import exposure corresponds to a 7.8% increase in the morbidity of poor mental health, adding about 3 days of poor mental health per year for the average adult. Concurrently, the ability to afford health care decreases. Our results complement documented consequences of import competition on labor markets and temporary business cycle shocks on health outcomes.

Macroeconomic conditions and health: Inspecting the transmission mechanism

We study the relationship between macroeconomic conditions and self-reported health in a large sample of Italian individuals, focusing on the mediating role played by health behaviors (smoking, alcohol consumption, physical activity, eating habits) and economic stress. Our findings indicate that, overall, higher local unemployment is negatively related to individuals' health conditions. A one percentage point increase in the province-level unemployment rate is associated with a significant increase in the probability of experiencing diabetes (0.03 percentage points), infarction (0.01), ulcer (0.06), cirrhosis (0.01) and nervous disorders (0.07), with a time lag that differs across individual health conditions. Employment status and educational level play a significant role as moderators of these relationships. Eating habits, in addition to economic stress, play a key role as mediators, by enhancing the negative relationship between macroeconomic conditions and health outcomes, while physical exercise is found to play a dampening role.

Out of sight but not out of mind: Home countries' macroeconomic volatilities and immigrants' mental health

We provide the first empirical evidence that better economic performances by immigrants' countries of origin, as measured by lower consumer price index (CPI) or higher gross domestic product, improve immigrants' mental health. We use an econometrically-robust approach that exploits exogenous changes in macroeconomic conditions across immigrants' home countries over time and controls for immigrants' observable and unobservable characteristics. The CPI effect is statistically significant and sizeable. Furthermore, the CPI effect diminishes as the time since emigrating increases. By contrast, home countries' unemployment rates and exchange rate fluctuations have no impact on immigrants' mental health.

Mortality and the business cycle: Evidence from individual and aggregated data

There has been much interest recently in the relationship between economic conditions and mortality, with some studies showing that mortality is pro-cyclical, while others find the opposite. Some suggest that the aggregation level of analysis (e.g. individual vs. regional) matters. We use both individual and aggregated data on a sample of 20-64 year-old Swedish men from 1993 to 2007. Our results show that the association between the business cycle and mortality does not depend on the level of analysis: the sign and magnitude of the parameter estimates are similar at the individual level and the aggregate (county) level; both showing pro-cyclical mortality.

The association between attempted suicide and stock price movements: Evidence from Taiwan

This study is the first comprehensive analysis to investigate the potential association between stock market fluctuations and attempted suicide events as measured by self-inflicted injuries treated in hospitalization. Using nationwide, 15-year population-based data from 1998 through 2012, we observe that the occurrences for the hospitalizations of attempted suicides are apparently predicted by stock price movements. A low stock price index, a daily fall in the stock index, and consecutive daily falls in the stock index have been shown to be associated with increased risk of hospitalization in patients with attempted suicide. More specifically, stock price index is found to be significant impact on attempted suicide in the 45-54 age groups of both genders, whilst daily change is significant for both genders in the 25-34 and 55-64 age groups and accumulated change is only significant in female aged 25-44 and above 65. On the basis of the results, relevant organizations should consider the suicidal factors that relate prime-working-age and near-retirement-age people to better carry out specific suicide prevention measures, and, meanwhile, encourage those people to pay less attention towards daily stock price movements.

Stock Market Fluctuations and Self-Harm among Children and Adolescents in Hong Kong

Although a few studies investigated the impact of stock market fluctuations on population health, the question of whether stock market fluctuations have an impact on self-harm in children and adolescents remain unanswered. This study therefore investigated the association between stock market fluctuations and self-harm among children and adolescents in Hong Kong. Daily self-harm attendance records were retrieved from all 18 local Accident and Emergency Departments (AED) from 2001 to 2012. 4931 children and adolescents who committed self-harm were included. The results indicated positive correlation between daily change in stock market index, Hang Seng Index (∇HSI, per 300 points), and daily self-harm incident risk of children and adolescents, without time lag between the two. The incident risk ratio for ∇HSI was 1.09 (p = 0.0339) in children and 1.06 (p = 0.0246) in adolescents. Importantly, non-trading days were found to impose significant protective effect in both groups against self-harm risk. Our results showed that stock market fluctuations were related to self-harm behaviors in children and adolescents. Parents and professionals should be educated about the potential harm of stock market fluctuations and the importance of effective parenting in reducing self-harm among children and adolescents.

Economic Stress and Mental Health: The Relationship Between the Stock Market and Neurotic Disorder Doctor Visits

This paper investigates the relationship between the stock market and the neurotic disorder doctor visits. We use aggregate data, partition the population by age and gender and examine the impact of changes in the stock market on neurotic disorders. Using doctor visits as a proxy measure of morbidity, we find evidence of some relationship between neurotic disorder morbidity and stock market variations. A stock market falling in a single day and the accumulation of daily stock market drops are both associated with more neurotic disorder doctor visits. We also observe more neurotic disorder doctor visits during periods of a low stock index for the elderly, regardless of gender. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Health Effects of Short-Term Fluctuations in Macroeconomic Conditions: The Case of Hypertension for Older Americans

We investigate the health effects of short-term macroeconomic fluctuations as described by changes in unemployment rate, house, and stock market price indexes. The 'Great Recession' provides the opportunity to conduct this analysis as it involved contemporaneous shocks to the labor, housing, and stock markets. Using panel data from the Health and Retirement Study over the period 2004-2010, we relate changes in hypertension status to changes in state-level unemployment rate and house prices and to changes in stock market prices. We consider hypertension, a disease related to stress and of high prevalence among older adults, that has received little attention in the literature linking macroeconomic conditions to individual health. Our analysis exploits self-reports of hypertension diagnosis as well as directly measured blood pressure readings. Using both measures, we find that the likelihood of developing hypertension is negatively related to changes in house prices. Also, decreasing house prices lower the probability of stopping hypertension medication treatment for individuals previously diagnosed with the condition. We do not observe significant associations between hypertension and either changes in unemployment rate or stock market prices. We document heterogeneity in the estimated health effects of the recession by gender, education, asset ownership, and work status. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

The self-medication hypothesis: Evidence from terrorism and cigarette accessibility

We use single equation and system instrumental variable models to explore if individuals smoke during times of stress (the motivation effect) and if they are successful in self-medicating short-term stress (the self-medication effect). Short-term stress is a powerful motivator of smoking, and the decision to smoke could trigger biological feedback that immediately reduces short-term stress. We use data on self-reported smoking and stress from 240,388 current and former smokers. We instrument short-term stress with temporal distance from September 11, 2001 (using date of interview). We instrument smoking with cigarette accessibility measures of cigarette price changes and distance to state borders. In the absence of accounting for endogeneity, we find that smoking is associated with increases in short-term stress. However, when we account for endogeneity we find no evidence of smoking affecting short-term stress. We do find a consistent positive effect of short-term stress on smoking.

Integrating Well-Being Information and the Multidimensional Adaptive Prediction Process to Estimate Individual-Level Future Health Care Expenditure Levels

Decades of research exist focusing on the utility of self-reported health risk and status data in health care cost predictive models. However, in many of these studies a limited number of self-reported measures were considered. Compounding this issue, prior research evaluated models specified with a single covariate vector and distribution. In this study, the authors incorporate well-being data into the Multidimensional Adaptive Prediction Process (MAPP) and then use a simulation analysis to highlight the value of these findings for future cost mitigation. Data were collected on employees and dependents of a nationally based employer over 36 months beginning in January 2010. The first 2 years of data (2010, 2011) were utilized in model development and selection; 51239 and 54085 members were included in 2010 and 2011, respectively. The final results were based on prospective prediction of 2012 cost levels using 2011 data. The well-being-augmented MAPP results showed a 5.7% and 13% improvement in accurate cost capture relative to a reference modeling approach and the first study of MAPP, respectively. The simulation analysis results demonstrated that reduced well-being risk across a population can help mitigate the expected upward cost trend. This research advances health care cost predictive modeling by incorporating well-being information within MAPP and then leveraging the results in a simulation analysis of well-being improvement.

Local house prices and mental health

This paper examines the impact of local (county-level) house prices on individual self-reported mental health using individual level data from the United States Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System between 2005 and 2011. Exploiting a fixed-effects model that relies on within-county variations, relative to the corresponding changes in other counties, I find that while individuals are likely to experience worse self-reported mental health when local house prices decline, this association is most pronounced for individuals who are least likely to be homeowners. This finding is not consistent with a prediction from a pure wealth mechanism but rather with the hypothesis that house prices act as an economic barometer. I also demonstrate that the association between self-reported mental health and local house prices is not driven by unemployment or foreclosure. The primary result-that lower local house prices have adverse impact on self-reported mental health of homeowners and renters-is consistent with studies using data from the United Kingdom.