The effect of occupational exposure to ergonomic risk factors on osteoarthritis of hip or knee and selected other musculoskeletal diseases: A systematic review and meta-analysis from the WHO/ILO Joint Estimates of the Work-related Burden of Disease and Injury

Physically demanding occupations among females and sex-related differences to develop osteoarthritis of the hip: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Hip osteoarthritis (HOA) is a leading cause of disability increasing with age and is more prevalent in women and in various physically demanding occupations. This systematic review identifies and summarises occupational exposures for women in physically demanding occupations and discusses sex differences and consequences.

METHODS

In this systematic review, we searched various electronic databases for reports published between date of database inception and October 2022. We included cohort studies and case-control studies that assessed the association between exposure to physically demanding occupations and the development of HOA. We then assessed the methodological quality of selected studies, extracted relative effects, compared the risk for women and men and meta-analytically reviewed the effects of physically demanding occupations. All steps were based on a study protocol published in PROSPERO (CRD42015016894).

RESULTS

We included six cohort studies and two case-control studies in this systematic review. These studies showed a considerably increased risk of developing HOA in both sexes. Women working in traditionally female-dominated occupations such as cleaning, sales, catering, childcare and hairdressing that are physically demanding, have a higher risk of developing HOA than men in similarly physically demanding occupations. Conversely, in traditionally male-dominated occupations with a high heterogeneity of work activities, such as agriculture, crafts, construction, as well as in low-skilled occupations, the risk was higher for men. One exception are health occupations, which are grouped together with a wide range of other technical occupations, making it difficult to draw conclusions.

CONCLUSIONS

Existing studies indicate an association between various occupations with a high physical workload and an increased risk of developing HOA. Occupational prevention and individual health promotion strategies should focus on reducing the effects of heavy physical workloads at work. The aforementioned as well as early detection should be specifically offered to women in female-dominated occupations and to people working in elementary occupations.

Prevalence of low back pain in professional drivers: a meta-analysis

OBJECTIVE

This meta-review aimed to investigate the prevalence of low back pain (LBP) in professional drivers.

STUDY DESIGN

This study is a meta-analysis.

METHODS

PubMed, Scopus, Embase, and Web of Science were searched for cross-sectional studies on the prevalence of LBP in professional drivers up to August 2023. The Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality was utilized for cross-sectional analytical studies. Statistical analysis of the included outcome indicators was conducted using Stata 16.0. The prevalence of LBP among professional drivers was measured using the random effects model, and heterogeneity was evaluated utilizing subgroup analysis. This meta-analysis review was registered with PROSPERO on April 28, 2023, under the registration number CRD42023422205.

RESULTS

In total, 1, 558 results met the inclusion and exclusion criteria, and 53 studies were included. The meta-analysis results indicated that professional drivers had a LBP prevalence of 35.0%, 95%CI (0.266, 0.433) for one week, 33.80%, 95%CI (0.233, 0.443) for one month, and 55.30%, 95%CI (0.503,0.603) for one year. In the global population of professional drivers, the prevalence of LBP was 56.0%, 95%CI (0.472, 0.648) and 54.5%, 95%CI (0.488, 0.602) without and with a history and high risk of LBP, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

LBP remains prevalent among international drivers and has multiple contributing factors, highlighting the urgent need for increased awareness and prevention strategies.

Mapping the conceptual structure of ergonomics, musculoskeletal disorders, treatment and return to work in manual jobs: A systematic review

BACKGROUND

Musculoskeletal disorders constitute one of the major health problems of workers exposed to manual work throughout the world. Nevertheless, there is no study that maps its conceptual structure based on a systematic methodology.

OBJECTIVE

To identify the conceptual structure of ergonomics, MSDs, treatment and return to work in manual jobs in the last 12 years by applying a systematic co-word network analysis methodology which describes the replicability of the search filters and emphasizes the rigor that has to be followed in the creation of the network.

METHODS

The search filter was customized for each bibliographic database, and followed the PRISMA 2020 flowchart for the screening process. For the creation of the network, the titles, abstracts, and keywords were used as the unit of analysis extracting the noun phrases of the first two units. In the normalization process, the terms of the search filter were deleted and their associated terms, and standardized the similar terms. Regarding the plotting of the network, Vosviewer was used applying the network settings based on content analysis.

RESULTS

The co-word network shows three communities: Ergonomic assessment and workplace intervention tools, factors related to rehabilitation and return to work, and physical and mental overload management. For each community, there is a framework that explains the relationship within terms.

CONCLUSION

This study is aligned with the replicability, robustness, and relevance recommendations in the implementation of rigorous scientometric studies. The occupational health community is encouraged to implement scientometric studies following a rigorous methodology and working in interdisciplinary team.

Health and labor market effects of an unanticipated rise in retirement age. Evidence from the 2012 Italian pension reform

As retirement ages increase around the world, not all workers may be equally able to extend their working lives. In this article, we examine the health and labor market effects of an Italian pension reform that suddenly increased the normal retirement age up to 7 years for women and up to 2 years for men. To do this, we use linked labor and healthcare administrative data, jointly with survey data and difference-in-difference methods. Our results show that the reform was effective in postponing retirement among both genders, as pension claiming dropped substantially for older workers. However, there were also side effects as the reform significantly pushed previously employed men and women into unemployment and disability pension. Among women only, the reform also increased sick leave and hospitalizations related to mental health and injuries. These effects were driven by women with previously low health status, suggesting that undifferentiated and abrupt increases in pension age might harm more vulnerable workers. Coherently with the milder tightening of retirement age experienced by men, labor market responses were smaller in size, and they did not suffer any significant health effects.

'Wait…, let me tell you, if I worked for a boss, I would be on sick leave': A Qualitative Study of Self-Employed Workers in Physically Demanding Jobs in the Netherlands

PURPOSE

The purpose of this study was to explore the perspectives of self-employed workers with a physically demanding job on work participation.

METHODS

We interviewed self-employed workers with a physically demanding job, using semi-structured interviews, which were audio recorded. The main topic addressed was the workers' health in relation with their work participation, work demands, and preventive measures. The interviews were transcribed verbatim and coded by three team members of the research team in several steps. We used the consolidated criteria for reporting qualitative research (COREQ) checklist to report our findings.

RESULTS

We interviewed 18 self-employed workers: 83% male, 49 years (SD 7), self-employed for 18 years (SD 9) and the majority (n = 14) worked in the construction sector. Thematic analysis revealed facilitators and barriers for work participation across three main themes: personal factors, work factors, and healthcare. Personal factors compassed sub-themes such as health and financial consequences. Work factors included sub-themes related to work demands and adaptations and healthcare encompassed sub-themes associated with work-related care and medication.

CONCLUSION

To our knowledge, this is the first qualitative study that investigated the perspectives of self-employed workers in physically demanding jobs regarding work participation. While most facilitators and barriers were consistent with those described in the literature for employees, certain factors, such as financial consequences of ceasing work, emerged important factors for work participation among self-employed workers.

The prevalences and levels of occupational exposure to dusts and/or fibres (silica, asbestos and coal): A systematic review and meta-analysis from the WHO/ILO Joint Estimates of the Work-related Burden of Disease and Injury

BACKGROUND

The World Health Organization (WHO) and the International Labour Organization (ILO) are developing joint estimates of the work-related burden of disease and injury (WHO/ILO Joint Estimates), with contributions from a large number of individual experts. Evidence from human, animal and mechanistic data suggests that occupational exposure to dusts and/or fibres (silica, asbestos and coal dust) causes pneumoconiosis. In this paper, we present a systematic review and meta-analysis of the prevalences and levels of occupational exposure to silica, asbestos and coal dust. These estimates of prevalences and levels will serve as input data for estimating (if feasible) the number of deaths and disability-adjusted life years that are attributable to occupational exposure to silica, asbestos and coal dust, for the development of the WHO/ILO Joint Estimates.

OBJECTIVES

We aimed to systematically review and meta-analyse estimates of the prevalences and levels of occupational exposure to silica, asbestos and coal dust among working-age (≥ 15 years) workers.

DATA SOURCES

We searched electronic academic databases for potentially relevant records from published and unpublished studies, including Ovid Medline, PubMed, EMBASE, and CISDOC. We also searched electronic grey literature databases, Internet search engines and organizational websites; hand-searched reference lists of previous systematic reviews and included study records; and consulted additional experts.

STUDY ELIGIBILITY AND CRITERIA

We included working-age (≥ 15 years) workers in the formal and informal economy in any WHO and/or ILO Member State but excluded children (< 15 years) and unpaid domestic workers. We included all study types with objective dust or fibre measurements, published between 1960 and 2018, that directly or indirectly reported an estimate of the prevalence and/or level of occupational exposure to silica, asbestos and/or coal dust.

STUDY APPRAISAL AND SYNTHESIS METHODS

At least two review authors independently screened titles and abstracts against the eligibility criteria at a first stage and full texts of potentially eligible records at a second stage, then data were extracted from qualifying studies. We combined prevalence estimates by industrial sector (ISIC-4 2-digit level with additional merging within Mining, Manufacturing and Construction) using random-effects meta-analysis. Two or more review authors assessed the risk of bias and all available authors assessed the quality of evidence, using the ROB-SPEO tool and QoE-SPEO approach developed specifically for the WHO/ILO Joint Estimates.

RESULTS

Eighty-eight studies (82 cross-sectional studies and 6 longitudinal studies) met the inclusion criteria, comprising > 2.4 million measurements covering 23 countries from all WHO regions (Africa, Americas, Eastern Mediterranean, South-East Asia, Europe, and Western Pacific). The target population in all 88 included studies was from major ISCO groups 3 (Technicians and Associate Professionals), 6 (Skilled Agricultural, Forestry and Fishery Workers), 7 (Craft and Related Trades Workers), 8 (Plant and Machine Operators and Assemblers), and 9 (Elementary Occupations), hereafter called manual workers. Most studies were performed in Construction, Manufacturing and Mining. For occupational exposure to silica, 65 studies (61 cross-sectional studies and 4 longitudinal studies) were included with > 2.3 million measurements collected in 22 countries in all six WHO regions. For occupational exposure to asbestos, 18 studies (17 cross-sectional studies and 1 longitudinal) were included with > 20,000 measurements collected in eight countries in five WHO regions (no data for Africa). For occupational exposure to coal dust, eight studies (all cross-sectional) were included comprising > 100,000 samples in six countries in five WHO regions (no data for Eastern Mediterranean). Occupational exposure to silica, asbestos and coal dust was assessed with personal or stationary active filter sampling; for silica and asbestos, gravimetric assessment was followed by technical analysis. Risk of bias profiles varied between the bodies of evidence looking at asbestos, silica and coal dust, as well as between industrial sectors. However, risk of bias was generally highest for the domain of selection of participants into the studies. The largest bodies of evidence for silica related to the industrial sectors of Construction (ISIC 41-43), Manufacturing (ISIC 20, 23-25, 27, 31-32) and Mining (ISIC 05, 07, 08). For Construction, the pooled prevalence estimate was 0.89 (95% CI 0.84 to 0.93, 17 studies, I2 91%, moderate quality of evidence) and the level estimate was rated as of very low quality of evidence. For Manufacturing, the pooled prevalence estimate was 0.85 (95% CI 0.78 to 0.91, 24 studies, I2 100%, moderate quality of evidence) and the pooled level estimate was rated as of very low quality of evidence. The pooled prevalence estimate for Mining was 0.75 (95% CI 0.68 to 0.82, 20 studies, I2 100%, moderate quality of evidence) and the pooled level estimate was 0.04 mg/m3 (95% CI 0.03 to 0.05, 17 studies, I2 100%, low quality of evidence). Smaller bodies of evidence were identified for Crop and animal production (ISIC 01; very low quality of evidence for both prevalence and level); Professional, scientific and technical activities (ISIC 71, 74; very low quality of evidence for both prevalence and level); and Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply (ISIC 35; very low quality of evidence for both prevalence and level). For asbestos, the pooled prevalence estimate for Construction (ISIC 41, 43, 45,) was 0.77 (95% CI 0.65 to 0.87, six studies, I2 99%, low quality of evidence) and the level estimate was rated as of very low quality of evidence. For Manufacturing (ISIC 13, 23-24, 29-30), the pooled prevalence and level estimates were rated as being of very low quality of evidence. Smaller bodies of evidence were identified for Other mining and quarrying (ISIC 08; very low quality of evidence for both prevalence and level); Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply (ISIC 35; very low quality of evidence for both prevalence and level); and Water supply, sewerage, waste management and remediation (ISIC 37; very low quality of evidence for levels). For coal dust, the pooled prevalence estimate for Mining of coal and lignite (ISIC 05), was 1.00 (95% CI 1.00 to 1.00, six studies, I2 16%, moderate quality of evidence) and the pooled level estimate was 0.77 mg/m3 (95% CI 0.68 to 0.86, three studies, I2 100%, low quality of evidence). A small body of evidence was identified for Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply (ISIC 35); with very low quality of evidence for prevalence, and the pooled level estimate being 0.60 mg/m3 (95% CI -6.95 to 8.14, one study, low quality of evidence).

CONCLUSIONS

Overall, we judged the bodies of evidence for occupational exposure to silica to vary by industrial sector between very low and moderate quality of evidence for prevalence, and very low and low for level. For occupational exposure to asbestos, the bodies of evidence varied by industrial sector between very low and low quality of evidence for prevalence and were of very low quality of evidence for level. For occupational exposure to coal dust, the bodies of evidence were of very low or moderate quality of evidence for prevalence, and low for level. None of the included studies were population-based studies (i.e., covered the entire workers' population in the industrial sector), which we judged to present serious concern for indirectness, except for occupational exposure to coal dust within the industrial sector of mining of coal and lignite. Selected estimates of the prevalences and levels of occupational exposure to silica by industrial sector are considered suitable as input data for the WHO/ILO Joint Estimates, and selected estimates of the prevalences and levels of occupational exposure to asbestos and coal dust may perhaps also be suitable for estimation purposes. Protocol identifier: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envint.2018.06.005. PROSPERO registration number: CRD42018084131.

Physical Work Demands of Maintenance Workers on Onshore Petroleum Facilities in Norway: An Observational Study Utilizing Wearable Sensor Technology

OBJECTIVES

High physical work demands can cause musculoskeletal disorders and sick leave in petroleum workers. However, our knowledge of their physical work demands is scarce and based on self-report. The objective of our study is to work towards closing this knowledge gap by assessing the physical work demands of onshore petroleum maintenance workers using body-worn sensors.

METHODS

A total of 46 of 69 eligible maintenance workers (37 mechanics and 9 process technicians) from three onshore petroleum facilities in Norway filled in a questionnaire and diary and wore five accelerometers and a heart rate sensor for up to six consecutive workdays. Work-related physical activity and postures were classified using rule-based modelling in a modified version of the validated Acti4 software.

RESULTS

The onshore maintenance petroleum workers were working an average of 10 h a day and spent on average this time with 48% (SD = 16.5) sitting, 1% (SD = 2.8) lying down, 39% (SD = 16.2) in light physical activity, and 9% (SD = 3.8) in moderate to vigorous physical activity. During work hours while at feet, we found arm elevation ≥60° to be 11% (SD = 7.1) (68 min), and forward bending of the trunk ≥60° to be 2% (SD = 2.2) (14 min). The workers spent 2% (SD = 2.5) (12 minu) of the workhours kneeling. We observed a high inter-individual variation for all these work exposures. Moreover, 26% (12) of the workers conducted static standing for >30% of the workday, and 17% (8) spent more than half of the work hours >33% of their estimated maximal cardiovascular capacity.

CONCLUSIONS

While onshore maintenance petroleum workers on average spend about half of the workday sitting or lying down, the remaining worktime is spent with a rather high duration of arm elevation and forward bending. Quite high fraction of the workers spends much of the workhours in static standing and kneeling. We see a substantial variation in these work exposures between the workers. The findings indicate a need for preventive measures in how work is organized and performed.

Can home care work be organized to promote health among the workers while maintaining productivity? An investigation into stakeholders' perspectives on organizational work redesign concepts based on the Goldilocks Work principles

BACKGROUND

Due to the aging population, the need for home care services is increasing in most Western countries, including Norway. However, the highly physical nature of this job could contribute to make recruiting and retaining qualified home care workers (HCWs) challenging. This issue may be overcome by adopting the Goldilocks Work principles, aiming at promoting workers' physical health by determining a "just right" balance between work demands and recovery periods while maintaining productivity. The aim of this study was to 1) gather suggestions from home care employees on suitable organizational (re)design concepts for promoting HCWs' physical health and 2) have researchers and managers define actionable behavioral aims for the HCWs for each proposed (re)design concept and evaluate them in the context of the Goldilocks Work principles.

METHODS

HCWs, safety representatives, and operation coordinators (n = 14) from three Norwegian home care units participated in digital workshops led by a researcher. They suggested, ranked, and discussed redesign concepts aimed at promoting HCWs' health. The redesign concepts were subsequently operationalized and evaluated by three researchers and three home care managers.

RESULTS

Workshop participants suggested five redesign concepts, namely "operation coordinators should distribute work lists with different occupational physical activity demands more evenly between HCWs", "operation coordinators should distribute transportation modes more evenly between HCWs", "Managers should facilitate correct use of ergonomic aids and techniques", "HCWs should use the stairs instead of the elevator", and "HCWs should participate in home-based exercise training with clients". Only the first two redesign concepts were considered to be aligned with the Goldilocks Work principles. A corresponding behavioral aim for a "just right" workload was defined: reduce inter-individual differences in occupational physical activity throughout a work week.

CONCLUSIONS

Operation coordinators could have a key role in health-promoting organizational work redesign based on the Goldilocks Work principles in home care. By reducing the inter-individual differences in occupational physical activity throughout a work week, HCWs' health may be improved, thus reducing absenteeism and increasing the sustainability of home care services. The two suggested redesign concepts should be considered areas for evaluation and adoption in practice by researchers and home care services in similar settings.

Demographic and radiographic factors for knee symptoms and range of motion in patients with knee osteoarthritis: a cross-sectional study in Beijing, China

BACKGROUND

Knee osteoarthritis (KOA) causes not only pain, stiffness, and dysfunction of the knee, but also the reduction of the joint range of motion (ROM). This study explored the demographic and radiographic factors for knee symptoms and ROM in patients with symptomatic KOA.

METHODS

The demographic variables, Kellgren-Lawrence (KL) grade, and the Western Ontario and McMaster Universities Osteoarthritis Index (WOMAC) of patients with symptomatic KOA recruited in Beijing were collected. The knee ROM of all patients were also measured. We analyzed the influencing factors for WOMAC and ROM using a generalize linear model, respectively.

RESULTS

This study included a total of 2034 patients with symptomatic KOA, including 530 males (26.1%) and 1504 females (73.0%), with a mean age of 59.17 (± 10.22) years. Patients with advanced age, overweight or obesity, a family history of KOA, a moderate-to-heavy manual labor job and use of nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) had significantly higher WOMAC and lower ROM (all P < 0.05). The more the comorbidities, the higher the WOMAC (all P < 0.05). Patients with higher education had better ROM than those with only an elementary education(β = 4.905, P < 0.05). Compared with those KL = 0/1, the WOMAC of patients whose KL = 4 were higher (β = 0.069, P < 0.05), but the WOMAC of those KL = 2 were lower (β = -0.068, P < 0.05). ROM decreased with the increase of KL grade (all P < 0.05).

CONCLUSIONS

KOA patients with advanced age, overweight or obesity, a family history of KOA in first-degree relatives, a moderate-to-heavy manual labor job tended to have more severe clinical symptoms and worse ROM. Patients with more severe imaging lesions tend to have poorer ROM. Symptom management measures and regular ROM screening should be taken early to these people.

A first step towards a framework for interventions for individual working practice to prevent work-related musculoskeletal disorders: a scoping review

BACKGROUND

Work-related musculoskeletal disorders (WMSDs) are a key topic in occupational health. In the primary prevention of these disorders, interventions to minimize exposure to work-related physical risk factors are widely advocated. Besides interventions aimed at the work organisation and the workplace, interventions are also aimed at the behaviour of workers, the so-called individual working practice (IWP). At the moment, no conceptual framework for interventions for IWP exists. This study is a first step towards such a framework.

METHODS

A scoping review was carried out starting with a systematic search in Ovid Medline, Ovid Embase, Ovid APA PsycInfo, and Web of Science. Intervention studies aimed at reducing exposure to physical ergonomic risk factors involving the worker were included. The content of these interventions for IWP was extracted and coded in order to arrive at distinguishing and overarching categories of these interventions for IWP.

RESULTS

More than 12.000 papers were found and 110 intervention studies were included, describing 810 topics for IWP. Eventually eight overarching categories of interventions for IWP were distinguished: (1) Workplace adjustment, (2) Variation, (3) Exercising, (4) Use of aids, (5) Professional skills, (6) Professional manners, (7) Task content & task organisation and (8) Motoric skills.

CONCLUSION

Eight categories of interventions for IWP are described in the literature. These categories are a starting point for developing and evaluating effective interventions performed by workers to prevent WMSDs. In order to reach consensus on these categories, an international expert consultation is a necessary next step.

Risk of symptomatic osteoarthritis associated with exposure to ergonomic factors at work in a nationwide Italian survey

OBJECTIVE

The risk of developing osteoarthritis (OA) has been reported to increase with exposure to various ergonomic factors at work, although this finding is still debated in the literature. Aim of this study was to assess the association between prevalence of symptomatic OA and exposure to workplace ergonomic factors assigned through a job-exposures matrix (JEM).

METHODS

The study population was composed of 24,604 persons of 40-69 years who participated in the National Health Survey 2013 and were employed at that occasion. Exposure to ergonomic factors was assigned to the study population through a JEM constructed from the Italian O*NET database, consisting of 17 physical factors, which were summed and averaged by job title (796 jobs) to obtain a combined exposure index. The outcome was self-reported OA characterized by moderate or severe limitations in daily activities. The relationship between OA prevalence and the combined exposure index in quartiles was examined using robust Poisson regression models adjusted for socio-demographics and potential confounders.

RESULTS

In the analysis adjusted for age and gender, the risk of OA was increased by approximately 20-30% in the second and third quartiles, and by 80% in the highest exposure quartile, compared to the least exposed, with a risk attenuation by approximately 15-20% controlling for other significant covariates.

CONCLUSION

Our results support a causal role of exposure to physical factors at work in the development of OA. As OA is associated with a great burden of disability, any effort should be made to reduce workers' exposure to ergonomic factors.

Estimating the population exposed to a risk factor over a time window: A microsimulation modelling approach from the WHO/ILO Joint Estimates of the Work-related Burden of Disease and Injury

OBJECTIVES

Burden of disease estimation commonly requires estimates of the population exposed to a risk factor over a time window (yeart to yeart+n). We present a microsimulation modelling approach for producing such estimates and apply it to calculate the population exposed to long working hours for one country (Italy).

METHODS

We developed a three-model approach: Model 1, a multilevel model, estimates exposure to the risk factor at the first year of the time window (yeart). Model 2, a regression model, estimates transition probabilities between exposure categories during the time window (yeart to yeart+n). Model 3, a microsimulation model, estimates the exposed population over the time window, using the Monte Carlo method. The microsimulation is carried out in three steps: (a) a representative synthetic population is initiated in the first year of the time window using prevalence estimates from Model 1, (b) the exposed population is simulated over the time window using the transition probabilities from Model 2; and (c) the population is censored for deaths during the time window.

RESULTS

We estimated the population exposed to long working hours (i.e. 41-48, 49-54 and ≥55 hours/week) over a 10-year time window (2002-11) in Italy. We populated all three models with official data from Labour Force Surveys, United Nations population estimates and World Health Organization life tables. Estimates were produced of populations exposed over the time window, disaggregated by sex and 5-year age group.

CONCLUSIONS

Our modelling approach for estimating the population exposed to a risk factor over a time window is simple, versatile, and flexible. It however requires longitudinal exposure data and Model 3 (the microsimulation model) is stochastic. The approach can improve accuracy and transparency in exposure and burden of disease estimations. To improve the approach, a logical next step is changing Model 3 to a deterministic microsimulation method, such as modelling of microflows.

Epidemiological trends of hand osteoarthritis from 1990 to 2019: Estimates from the 2019 Global Burden of Disease study

Background

Hand osteoarthritis (OA) is a chronic progressive disease characterized by disabling pain in the hand, with a high clinical burden. This study is designed to assess the epidemiological patterns of hand OA from 1990 to 2019 and analyze its secular trends based on sex, age, and socio-demographic index (SDI) at global, regional, and national levels.

Methods

Data on the incidence and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of hand OA were extracted from the 2019 Global Burden of Disease (GBD), and their respective age-standardized rates (ASRs) were calculated. The estimated annual percentage changes (EAPCs) in ASR were calculated to assess the prevalent trends of the incidence and DALYs of hand OA over the recent three decades. The relationship between ASR and SDI was analyzed by Pearson's correlation analysis.

Results

The incidence of hand OA increased from 371.30 million in 1990 to 676.02 million in 2019, increasing by 82.07%, whereas its age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) decreased, with a downward trend [EAPC = -0.34; 95% confidence interval: -0.39--0.28]. With the changes in age, the incidence of hand OA exhibited a unimodal distribution before 70 years of age, peaking at 50-54 years, while its incidence had an upward trend in the >70 years age groups. Overall, hand OA-related DALYs increased in the recent 30 years. Meanwhile, its annual age-standardized DALY rate decreased, with EAPCs of -0.35 (95% CI, -0.38 --0.32). The DALYs increased with age. In 2019, the ASIR and age-standardized DALY rate were positively associated with the SDI regions. The incidence and DALYs presented predominance in female patients. The burden of hand OA over the recent three decades displayed obvious geographical diversity.

Conclusion

The incident cases of hand OA increased globally from 1990 to 2019, while the ASIR and age-standardized DALY rate decreased. However, in many countries and regions, there was a rising trend of ASR related to incidence and DALYs. In addition, the prevalence revealed geographical, sex, and age diversity. Thus, governments and medical institutions should reallocate medical resources based on the epidemiological characteristics of hand OA.

Biomechanical analysis of lifting on stable versus unstable surfaces-a laboratory-based proof-of-concept study

Background

Many workers performing manual handling tasks suffer from musculoskeletal disorders (MSD). Previous research has identified several loading aspects associated with manual handling, but it is still unknown if lifting on an unstable surface is associated with increased biomechanical loading of different body parts.

Aim

This proof-of-concept study aims to study what kinematic and kinetic movement parameters, such as movement time, joint angles, torque, and muscle activity are feasible and of importance when studying the effect of lifting on surfaces with varying degrees of stability in an experimental set-up.

Methods

Measurements were taken during three different surface conditions: stable, slightly unstable, and unstable. The participants were instructed to lift a box from the floor and place it on a table in front of them. The weight of the box varied from 0.5 to 15.5 kg. By using a motion capture system (VICON) with 28 reflective markers placed on the participants and one on the box, one Kistler force plate for measuring force levels and center of pressure movements (CoP), and four electromyographic transmitters (EMG), we analyzed the downward and upward phases of the lifting movement, using the Friedman’s test for repeated measures.

Results

Statistically significant results with less joint movements in the lower and upper back were seen with increased instability during both the downward and upward phases. The decrease in trunk movements with increased instability resulted in a somewhat more flexed knee position during the movement, a lower torque in the lower back, and a decrease in CoP movements, but no differences in movement time or muscle activity in back and knee muscles.

Conclusion

Lifting while standing on unstable surfaces resulted in an alteration of both kinematics and kinetics parameters; however, further studies regarding whether this is an additional risk factor for developing lower back pain are needed. Muscle activity levels were not altered due to instability and due to the complexity of the measurement, and we suggest not including EMG measures in future experiments of this type.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s40814-022-01157-2.

Influence of physically demanding occupations on the development of osteoarthritis of the hip: a systematic review

Background

Hip osteoarthritis (HOA) is a disabling disease affecting around 33 million people worldwide. People of working age and the elderly are at increased risk of developing HOA and the disease is associated with high costs at individual and societal levels due to sick leaves, job loss, total hip replacements and disability pension. This systematic review evaluated the influence of physically demanding occupations on the development of HOA in men.

Methods

Cohort studies, case–control studies and cross-sectional studies with publications in English or German, which assessed the association between exposure to physically demanding occupations and development of HOA, were searched in electronic databases (Medline, Embase, HSE-Line, Cochrane Library) and conference abstracts from 1990 until May 2020. We assessed the methodological quality of selected studies, interpreted all relative effect estimators as relative risks (RRs) and meta-analytically reviewed the effects of occupations with high physical workloads. All steps are based on a study protocol published in PROSPERO (CRD42015016894).

Results

Seven cohort studies and six case–control studies were included. An elevated risk to develop HOA was shown for six physically demanding occupational groups. Working in agriculture including fishery and forestry and food production doubles the risk of HOA. Construction, metal working and sales as well as exposure to whole body vibration while driving vehicles increases the risk by roughly 50 to 60%. Unskilled or basic level workers, who were frequently exposed to repetitive heavy manual work, had nearly a doubled risk (RR 1.89 95%CI: 1.29 to 2.77) compared to workers with lower exposure.

Conclusions

Existing studies state an association between various occupations with high physical workload and an increased risk of developing HOA. High Physical workloads include including lifting and carrying heavy loads, demanding postures, repetitive activities, long standing and running, as well as exposure to body vibrations. Occupational prevention and early detection as well as individual health promotion strategies should place their focus on reducing the impact of high physical strain at work sites.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12995-022-00358-y.

Assessment of Physical Work Demands of Home Care Workers in Norway: An Observational Study Using Wearable Sensor Technology

OBJECTIVES

High physical work demands are believed to be partly responsible for the high sickness absence among home care workers, but no studies have assessed their physical work demands using precise device-based measurements. Hence, the objective of this observational study was to assess physical work demands in home care, using wearable sensors.

METHODS

From six home care units in a large municipality in Norway, 114 of 195 eligible home care workers filled in a questionnaire, a diary about work hours, and wore five accelerometers, and a heart rate sensor for up to six consecutive workdays.

RESULTS

On average, the homecare workers spent 50% of the working hours sitting, 25.2% standing, 11.4% moving, 8.3% walking fast, 1.9% walking slow, 1.2% stair-climbing, 0.3% cycling, and 0.05% running. We found the following exposures to demanding postures: arm-elevation in an upright body position ≥30° was 36.7%, ≥60° was 4.1%, and ≥90°was 0.5%; forward trunk inclination in an upright body position ≥30° was 9.9%, ≥60° was 4%, and ≥90° was 1%; and for kneeling it was 0.8%. We found the average cardiovascular load (%heart rate reserve) during work to be 28%. There was considerable individual variation in these physical exposures at work.

CONCLUSIONS

This study presents precise information on various physical work demands of home care workers in Norway. Home care workers spent on average half the workday sitting and the remaining time in various occupational physical activities. Presently, few device-based exposure limits have been proposed for acceptable amounts of occupational physical exposures, but the level of arm-elevation, forward trunk inclination, and the considerable variation of physical workloads among home care workers, indicate that preventive measures should be taken.

Assessing the quality of evidence in studies estimating prevalence of exposure to occupational risk factors: The QoE-SPEO approach applied in the systematic reviews from the WHO/ILO Joint Estimates of the Work-related burden of disease and Injury

BACKGROUND

The World Health Organization (WHO) and the International Labour Organization (ILO) have produced the WHO/ILO Joint Estimates of the Work-related Burden of Disease and Injury (WHO/ILO Joint Estimates). For these, systematic reviews of studies estimating the prevalence of exposure to selected occupational risk factors have been conducted to provide input data for estimations of the number of exposed workers. A critical part of systematic review methodology is to assess the quality of evidence across studies. In this article, we present the approach applied in these WHO/ILO systematic reviews for performing such assessments on studies of prevalence of exposure. It is called the Quality of Evidence in Studies estimating Prevalence of Exposure to Occupational risk factors (QoE-SPEO) approach. We describe QoE-SPEO's development to date, demonstrate its feasibility reporting results from pilot testing and case studies, note its strengths and limitations, and suggest how QoE-SPEO should be tested and developed further.

METHODS

Following a comprehensive literature review, and using expert opinion, selected existing quality of evidence assessment approaches used in environmental and occupational health were reviewed and analysed for their relevance to prevalence studies. Relevant steps and components from the existing approaches were adopted or adapted for QoE-SPEO. New steps and components were developed. We elicited feedback from other systematic review methodologists and exposure scientists and reached consensus on the QoE-SPEO approach. Ten individual experts pilot-tested QoE-SPEO. To assess inter-rater agreement, we counted ratings of expected (actual and non-spurious) heterogeneity and quality of evidence and calculated a raw measure of agreement (P_i) between individual raters and rater teams for the downgrade domains. P_i ranged between 0.00 (no two pilot testers selected the same rating) and 1.00 (all pilot testers selected the same rating). Case studies were conducted of experiences of QoE-SPEO's use in two WHO/ILO systematic reviews.

RESULTS

We found no existing quality of evidence assessment approach for occupational exposure prevalence studies. We identified three relevant, existing approaches for environmental and occupational health studies of the effect of exposures. Assessments using QoE-SPEO comprise three steps: (1) judge the level of expected heterogeneity (defined as non-spurious variability that can be expected in exposure prevalence, within or between individual persons, because exposure may change over space and/or time), (2) assess downgrade domains, and (3) reach a final rating on the quality of evidence. Assessments are conducted using the same five downgrade domains as the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation (GRADE) approach: (a) risk of bias, (b) indirectness, (c) inconsistency, (d) imprecision, and (e) publication bias. For downgrade domains (c) and (d), the assessment varies depending on the level of expected heterogeneity. There are no upgrade domains. The QoE-SPEO's ratings are "very low", "low", "moderate", and "high". To arrive at a final decision on the overall quality of evidence, the assessor starts at "high" quality of evidence and for each domain downgrades by one or two levels for serious concerns or very serious concerns, respectively. In pilot tests, there was reasonable agreement in ratings for expected heterogeneity; 70% of raters selected the same rating. Inter-rater agreement ranged considerably between downgrade domains, both for individual rater pairs (range P_i: 0.36-1.00) and rater teams (0.20-1.00). Sparse data prevented rigorous assessment of inter-rater agreement in quality of evidence ratings.

CONCLUSIONS

We present QoE-SPEO as an approach for assessing quality of evidence in prevalence studies of exposure to occupational risk factors. It has been developed to its current version (as presented here), has undergone pilot testing, and was applied in the systematic reviews for the WHO/ILO Joint Estimates. While the approach requires further testing and development, it makes steps towards filling an identified gap, and progress made so far can be used to inform future work in this area.

An Exploratory Study on the Physical Activity Health Paradox-Musculoskeletal Pain and Cardiovascular Load during Work and Leisure in Construction and Healthcare Workers

Using a novel approach, this exploratory study investigated whether the physical activity (PA) paradox extends to cardiovascular load and musculoskeletal pain. At baseline, 1–2 days of 24 h heart rate was assessed in 72 workers from construction and healthcare. Workers then reported pain intensity in 9 body regions (scale 0–3) every 6 months for two years. The 2 year average of musculoskeletal pain (sum of 9 pain scores; scale 0–27) was regressed on time spent during work and leisure above three thresholds of percentage heart rate reserve (%HRR), i.e., ≥20 %HRR, ≥30 %HRR, and ≥40 %HRR, using a novel ilr structure in compositional data analysis. Analyses were stratified for several important variables. Workers spending more time in physical activity at work had higher pain, while workers with more time in physical activity during leisure had less pain (i.e., the PA paradox), but none of the associations were statistically significant. Higher aerobic capacity and lower body mass index lowered the pain score among those with higher physical activity at work. This exploratory study suggests that the PA paradox may apply to musculoskeletal pain and future studies with larger sample sizes and additional exposure analyses are needed to explain why this occurs.

Assessor burden, inter-rater agreement and user experience of the RoB-SPEO tool for assessing risk of bias in studies estimating prevalence of exposure to occupational risk factors: An analysis from the WHO/ILO Joint Estimates of the Work-related Burden of Disease and Injury

BACKGROUND

As part of the development of the World Health Organization (WHO)/International Labour Organization (ILO) Joint Estimates of the Work-related Burden of Disease and Injury, WHO and ILO carried out several systematic reviews to determine the prevalence of exposure to selected occupational risk factors. Risk of bias assessment for individual studies is a critical step of a systematic review. No tool existed for assessing the risk of bias in prevalence studies of exposure to occupational risk factors, so WHO and ILO developed and pilot tested the RoB-SPEO tool for this purpose. Here, we investigate the assessor burden, inter-rater agreement, and user experience of this new instrument, based on the abovementioned WHO/ILO systematic reviews.

METHODS

Twenty-seven individual experts applied RoB-SPEO to assess risk of bias. Four systematic reviews provided a total of 283 individual assessments, carried out for 137 studies. For each study, two or more assessors independently assessed risk of bias across the eight RoB-SPEO domains selecting one of RoB-SPEO's six ratings (i.e., "low", "probably low", "probably high", "high", "unclear" or "cannot be determined"). Assessors were asked to report time taken (i.e. indicator of assessor burden) to complete each assessment and describe their user experience. To gauge assessor burden, we calculated the median and inter-quartile range of times taken per individual risk of bias assessment. To assess inter-rater reliability, we calculated a raw measure of inter-rater agreement (Pi) for each RoB-SPEO domain, between Pi = 0.00, indicating no agreement and Pi = 1.00, indicating perfect agreement. As subgroup analyses, Pi was also disaggregated by systematic review, assessor experience with RoB-SPEO (≤10 assessments versus > 10 assessments), and assessment time (tertiles: ≤25 min versus 26-66 min versus ≥ 67 min). To describe user experience, we synthesised the assessors' comments and recommendations.

RESULTS

Assessors reported a median of 40 min to complete one assessment (interquartile range 21-120 min). For all domains, raw inter-rater agreement ranged from 0.54 to 0.82. Agreement varied by systematic review and assessor experience with RoB-SPEO between domains, and increased with increasing assessment time. A small number of users recommended further development of instructions for selected RoB-SPEO domains, especially bias in selection of participants into the study (domain 1) and bias due to differences in numerator and denominator (domain 7).

DISCUSSION

Overall, our results indicated good agreement across the eight domains of the RoB-SPEO tool. The median assessment time was comparable to that of other risk of bias tools, indicating comparable assessor burden. However, there was considerable variation in time taken to complete assessments. Additional time spent on assessments may improve inter-rater agreement. Further development of the RoB-SPEO tool could focus on refining instructions for selected RoB-SPEO domains and additional testing to assess agreement for different topic areas and with a wider range of assessors from different research backgrounds.

An Ergonomic Assessment of Different Postures and Children Risk during Evacuations

Crawling is recommended for avoiding high heat and toxic fumes and for obtaining more breathable air during evacuations. Few studies have evaluated the effects of crawling on physical joints and velocity, especially in children. Based on motion capture technology, this study proposes a novel method of using wearable sensors to collect exposure (e.g., mean duration, frequency) on children’s joints to objectively quantify the impacts of different locomotion methods on physical characteristics. An on-site experiment was conducted in a kindergarten with 28 children (13 boys and 15 girls) of different ages (4–6 years old) who traveled up to 22 m in three different postures: upright walking (UW), stoop walking (SW), and knee and hand crawling (KHC). The results showed that: (1) The level of joint fatigue for KHC was heavier than bipedal walking (p < 0.05), which was evidenced by higher mean duration and frequency. There was no significant difference between UW and SW (p > 0.05). (2) The physical characteristics of the children in the different postures observed in this study were different (p < 0.05). The ankle was more fatigued than other joints during bipedal walking. Unlike infants, the wrists and hips of the children became fatigued while crawling. The key actions flexion/extension are more likely to induce joint fatigue vs. other actions. (3) Crawling velocity was significantly slower than the bipedal velocities, and UW was 10.6% faster than SW (p < 0.05). The bipedal walking velocity started to decrease after the children had travelled up to 13 m, while the KHC velocity started to decrease after traveling up to 11.6 m. (4) In a severe fire, the adoption of SW is suggested, as the evacuees can both evacuate quickly and avoid overworking their joints. (5) There were no significant differences in the age (p > 0.05) and gender (p > 0.05) of the children on the joints in any of the three postures. To conclude, KHC causes more damage to body joints compared to bipedal walking, as evidenced by higher exposure (mean duration, frequency), whereas UW and SW are similar in terms of the level of joint fatigue. The above findings are expected to provide a useful reference for future applications in the children’s risk assessment and in the prevention design of buildings.

Do overweight/obesity and low levels of leisure-time vigorous physical activity moderate the effect of occupational physical activity on self-rated health of construction workers?

Purpose

To investigate the combined effects of occupational physical activity (OPA) and either overweight/obesity or low levels of leisure-time vigorous physical activity (LTVPA) on self-rated health.

Methods

A longitudinal study was performed among 29,987 construction workers with complete data on 2 Workers’ Health Surveillance Programs during 2010–2018. Self-reported OPA involved strenuous work postures and manual material handling. Low level of LTVPA was defined as self-reported vigorous activity for less than three times per week lasting at least 20 min per session. Overweight and obesity were based on Body Mass Index (BMI) (25.0 ≤ BMI < 30.0 kg/m² and BMI ≥ 30.0 kg/m², respectively) using measured body height and weight. Self-rated health was measured using a single item question. Logistic regression analysis was used to investigate the associations between the separate risk factors at baseline and self-rated health at follow-up. The combined effects of demanding OPA and either overweight/obesity or low level of LTVPA on self-rated health were analyzed using the relative excess risk due to interaction (RERI).

Results

Mean follow-up duration was 31.7 (SD = 14.9) months. Construction workers with strenuous work postures (OR 1.35 95% CI 1.25–1.46), manual material handling (OR 1.29 95% CI 1.19–1.40), obesity (OR 1.31 95% CI 1.17–1.47) and low LTVPA (OR 1.13 95% CI 1.01–1.25) were more likely to report poor self-rated health at follow-up. No statistically significant interaction effects were found for OPA and obesity or low LTVPA.

Conclusions

OPA, obesity and low level of LTVPA were separate risk factors for poor self-rated health, but did not appear to have a synergistic effect.

The prevalence of occupational exposure to noise: A systematic review and meta-analysis from the WHO/ILO Joint Estimates of the Work-related Burden of Disease and Injury

BACKGROUND

The World Health Organization (WHO) and the International Labour Organization (ILO) are developing joint estimates of the work-related burden of disease and injury (WHO/ILO Joint Estimates), with contributions from a large network of individual experts. Evidence from mechanistic and human data suggests that occupational exposure to noise may cause cardiovascular disease. In this paper, we present a systematic review and meta-analysis of the prevalence of occupational exposure to noise for estimating (if feasible) the number of deaths and disability-adjusted life years from cardiovascular disease that are attributable to exposure to this risk factor, for the development of the WHO/ILO Joint Estimates.

OBJECTIVES

We aimed to systematically review and meta-analyse estimates of the prevalence of occupational exposure to noise.

DATA SOURCES

We searched electronic academic databases for potentially relevant records from published and unpublished studies, including Ovid Medline, PubMed, EMBASE, and CISDOC. We also searched electronic grey literature databases, Internet search engines, and organizational websites; hand-searched reference list of previous systematic reviews and included study records; and consulted additional experts.

STUDY ELIGIBILITY AND CRITERIA

We included working-age (≥15 years) workers in the formal and informal economies in any WHO Member and/or ILO member State, but excluded children (<15 years) and unpaid domestic workers. We included all study types with an estimate of the prevalence of occupational exposure to noise, categorized into two levels: no (low) occupational exposure to noise (<85dBA) and any (high) occupational exposure to noise (≥85dBA).

STUDY APPRAISAL AND SYNTHESIS METHODS

At least two review authors independently screened titles and abstracts against the eligibility criteria at a first stage and full texts of potentially eligible records at a second stage, followed by extraction of data from qualifying studies. We combined prevalence estimates using random-effect meta-analysis. Two or more review authors assessed the risk of bias and the quality of evidence, using the RoB-SPEO tool and QoE-SPEO approach developed specifically for the WHO/ILO Joint Estimates.

RESULTS

Sixty-five studies (56 cross-sectional studies and nine cohort studies) met the inclusion criteria, comprising 157,370 participants (15,369 females) across 28 countries and all six WHO regions (Africa, Americas, Eastern Mediterranean, Europe, South-East Asia, and Western Pacific). For the main analyses, we prioritized the four included studies that surveyed national probability samples of general populations of workers over the 58 studies of workers in industrial sectors and/or occupations with relatively high occupational exposure to noise. The exposure was generally assessed with dosimetry, sound level meter, or official or company records; in the population-based studies, it was assessed with validated questions. Estimates of the prevalence of occupational exposure to noise are presented for all 65 included studies, by country, sex, 5-year age group, industrial sector, and occupation where feasible. The pooled prevalence of any (high) occupational exposure to noise (≥85dBA) among the general population of workers was 0.17 (95% confidence interval 0.16 to 0.19, 4 studies, 108,256 participants, 38 countries, two WHO regions, I2 98%, low quality of evidence). Subgroup analyses showed that pooled prevalence differed substantially by WHO region, sex, industrial sector, and occupation.

CONCLUSIONS

Our systematic review and meta-analysis found that occupational exposure to noise is prevalent among general populations of workers. The current body of evidence is, however, of low quality, due to serious concerns for risk of bias and indirectness. Producing estimates of occupational exposure to noise nevertheless appears evidence-based, and the pooled effect estimates presented in this systematic review are suitable as input data for the WHO/ILO Joint Estimates (if feasible). Protocol identifier: 10.1016/j.envint.2018.09.040 PROSPERO registration number: CRD42018092272.

The effect of occupational exposure to noise on ischaemic heart disease, stroke and hypertension: A systematic review and meta-analysis from the WHO/ILO Joint Estimates of the Work-Related Burden of Disease and Injury

BACKGROUND

The World Health Organization (WHO) and the International Labour Organization (ILO) are developing joint estimates of the work-related burden of disease and injury (WHO/ILO Joint Estimates), with contributions from a large number of individual experts. Evidence from mechanistic data suggests that occupational exposure to noise may cause cardiovascular disease (CVD). In this paper, we present a systematic review and meta-analysis of parameters for estimating the number of deaths and disability-adjusted life years from CVD that are attributable to occupational exposure to noise, for the development of the WHO/ILO Joint Estimates.

OBJECTIVES

We aimed to systematically review and meta-analyse estimates of the effect of any (high) occupational exposure to noise (≥85 dBA), compared with no (low) occupational exposure to noise (<85 dBA), on the prevalence, incidence and mortality of ischaemic heart disease (IHD), stroke, and hypertension.

DATA SOURCES

A protocol was developed and published, applying the Navigation Guide as an organizing systematic review framework where feasible. We searched electronic academic databases for potentially relevant records from published and unpublished studies up to 1 April 2019, including International Trials Register, Ovid MEDLINE, PubMed, Embase, Lilacs, Scopus, Web of Science, and CISDOC. The MEDLINE and Pubmed searches were updated on 31 January 2020. We also searched grey literature databases, Internet search engines and organizational websites; hand-searched reference lists of previous systematic reviews and included study records; and consulted additional experts.

STUDY ELIGIBILITY AND CRITERIA

We included working-age (≥15 years) workers in the formal and informal economy in any WHO and/or ILO Member State but excluded children (<15 years) and unpaid domestic workers. We included randomized controlled trials, cohort studies, case-control studies and other non-randomized intervention studies with an estimate of the effect of any occupational exposure to noise on CVD prevalence, incidence or mortality, compared with the theoretical minimum risk exposure level (<85 dBA).

STUDY APPRAISAL AND SYNTHESIS METHODS

At least two review authors independently screened titles and abstracts against the eligibility criteria at a first stage and full texts of potentially eligible records at a second stage, followed by extraction of data from qualifying studies. We prioritized evidence from cohort studies and combined relative risk estimates using random-effect meta-analysis. To assess the robustness of findings, we conducted sensitivity analyses (leave-one-out meta-analysis and used as alternative fixed effects and inverse-variance heterogeneity estimators). At least two review authors assessed the risk of bias, quality of evidence and strength of evidence, using Navigation Guide tools and approaches adapted to this project.

RESULTS

Seventeen studies (11 cohort studies, six case-control studies) met the inclusion criteria, comprising a total of 534,688 participants (39,947 or 7.47% females) in 11 countries in three WHO regions (the Americas, Europe, and the Western Pacific). The exposure was generally assessed with dosimetry, sound level meter and/or official or company records. The outcome was most commonly assessed using health records. We are very uncertain (low quality of evidence) about the effect of occupational exposure to noise (≥85 dBA), compared with no occupational exposure to noise (<85 dBA), on: having IHD (0 studies); acquiring IHD (relative risk (RR) 1.29, 95% confidence interval (95% CI) 1.15 to 1.43, two studies, 11,758 participants, I² 0%); dying from IHD (RR 1.03, 95% CI 0.93-1.14, four studies, 198,926 participants, I² 26%); having stroke (0 studies); acquiring stroke (RR 1.11, 95% CI 0.82-1.65, two studies, 170,000 participants, I² 0%); dying from stroke (RR 1.02, 95% CI 0.93-1.12, three studies, 195,539 participants, I² 0%); having hypertension (0 studies); acquiring hypertension (RR 1.07, 95% CI 0.90-1.28, three studies, four estimates, 147,820 participants, I² 52%); and dying from hypertension (0 studies). Data for subgroup analyses were missing. Sensitivity analyses supported the main analyses.

CONCLUSIONS

For acquiring IHD, we judged the existing body of evidence from human data to provide "limited evidence of harmfulness"; a positive relationship is observed between exposure and outcome where chance, bias, and confounding cannot be ruled out with reasonable confidence. For all other included outcomes, the bodies of evidence were judged as "inadequate evidence of harmfulness". Producing estimates for the burden of CVD attributable to occupational exposure to noise appears to not be evidence-based at this time.

PROTOCOL IDENTIFIER

10.1016/j.envint.2018.09.040.

PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER

CRD42018092272.

Predicting the duration of sickness absence due to knee osteoarthritis: a prognostic model developed in a population-based cohort in Sweden

Background

Predicting the duration of sickness absence (SA) among sickness absent patients is a task many sickness certifying physicians as well as social insurance officers struggle with. Our aim was to develop a prediction model for prognosticating the duration of SA due to knee osteoarthritis.

Methods

A population-based prospective study of SA spells was conducted using comprehensive microdata linked from five Swedish nationwide registers. All 12,098 new SA spells > 14 days due to knee osteoarthritis in 1/1 2010 through 30/6 2012 were included for individuals 18–64 years. The data was split into a development dataset (70 %, n_spells =8468) and a validation data set (n_spells =3690) for internal validation. Piecewise-constant hazards regression was performed to prognosticate the duration of SA (overall duration and duration > 90, >180, or > 365 days). Possible predictors were selected based on the log-likelihood loss when excluding them from the model.

Results

Of all SA spells, 53 % were > 90 days and 3 % >365 days. Factors included in the final model were age, sex, geographical region, extent of sickness absence, previous sickness absence, history of specialized outpatient healthcare and/or inpatient healthcare, employment status, and educational level. The model was well calibrated. Overall, discrimination was poor (c = 0.53, 95 % confidence interval (CI) 0.52–0.54). For predicting SA > 90 days, discrimination as measured by AUC was 0.63 (95 % CI 0.61–0.65), for > 180 days, 0.69 (95 % CI 0.65–0.71), and for SA > 365 days, AUC was 0.75 (95 % CI 0.72–0.78).

Conclusion

It was possible to predict patients at risk of long-term SA (> 180 days) with acceptable precision. However, the prediction of duration of SA spells due to knee osteoarthritis has room for improvement.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12891-021-04400-8.