The Japanese Intensive care PAtient Database (JIPAD): A national intensive care unit registry in Japan

Association Between In-hospital Mortality and the Institutional Factors of Intensive Care Units with a Focus on the Intensivist- to-bed Ratio: A Retrospective Cohort Study

Purpose: To elucidate the relationship between in-hospital mortality and the institutional factors of intensive care units (ICUs), with a focus on the intensivist-to-bed ratio. Methods: A retrospective cohort study was conducted using a Japanese ICU database, including adult patients admitted between April 1, 2020 and March 31, 2021. We used a multilevel logistic regression model to investigate the associations between in-hospital mortality and the following institutional factors: the intensivist-to-bed ratios on weekdays or over weekends/holidays, different work shifts, hospital-to-ICU-bed ratio, annual-ICU-admission-to-bed ratio, type of hospital, and the presence of other medical staff. Results: The study population comprised 46 503 patients admitted to 65 ICUs. The in-hospital mortality rate was 8.1%. The median numbers of ICU beds and intensivists were 12 (interquartile range [IQR] 8-14) and 4 (IQR 2-9), respectively. In-hospital mortality decreased significantly as the intensivist-to-bed ratio at 10 am on weekdays increased: the average contrast indicated a 20% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1%-38%) reduction when the ratio increased from 0 to 0.5, and a 38% (95% CI: 9%-67%) reduction when the ratio increased from 0 to 1. The other institutional factors did not present a significant effect. Conclusions: The intensivist-to-bed ratio at 10 am on weekdays had a significant effect on in-hospital mortality. Further investigation is needed to understand the processes leading to improved outcomes.

Predictive performance of the sequential organ failure assessment score for in-hospital mortality in patients with end-stage kidney disease in intensive care units: A multicenter registry in Japan

INTRODUCTION

There is limited evidence regarding whether the performance of the Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score differs between patients with and without end-stage kidney disease (ESKD) in intensive care units (ICUs).

METHODS

We used a multicenter registry (Japanese Intensive care Patient Database) to enroll adult ICU patients between April 2018 and March 2021. We recalibrated the SOFA score using a logistic regression model and evaluated its predictive ability in both ESKD and non-ESKD groups. The primary outcome was in-hospital mortality.

RESULTS

128 134 patients were enrolled. The AUROC of the SOFA score was lower in the ESKD group than in the non-ESKD group [0.789 (95% CI, 0.774-0.804) vs. 0.846 (95% CI, 0.841-0.850)]. The calibration plot revealed good performance in both groups. However, it overestimated in-hospital mortality in ESKD groups.

CONCLUSION

The SOFA score demonstrated good predictive ability in patients with and without ESKD, but it overestimated the in-hospital mortality in ESKD patients.

Impact of missing values on the ability of the acute physiology and chronic health evaluation III and Japan risk of death models to predict mortality

PURPOSE

This study assessed model performance of the Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) III and Japan Risk of Death (JROD) when degraded by the number and category of missing variables. We also examined the impact of missing data on predicted mortality for facilities with missing physiological variables.

METHODS

We obtained data from the Japanese Intensive care PAtient Database (JIPAD). We calculated observed and predicted mortality rates using the APACHE III and JROD and the standardized mortality ratio (SMR) by the number and category of missing variables. Smoothed spline curves were calculated for the SMR to the missing proportion of the facility.

RESULTS

A total of 61,357 patients from 57 ICUs were included between April 2015 and March 2019. The APACHE III and JROD SMRs increased as the number of missing values increased. The SMR in the APACHE III model was elevated in facilities with a larger proportion of missing in each of the APS categories, arterial blood gas, albumin, glucose, and bilirubin. Facilities with a high proportion of missing albumin data preserved their SMRs in only the JROD model.

CONCLUSION

An increased number of missing physiological variables resulted in falsely low predicted mortality rates and high SMRs.

Utility of Lean Body Mass Equations and Body Mass Index for Predicting Outcomes in Critically Ill Adults with Sepsis: A Retrospective Study

Lean body mass is a significant component of survival from sepsis. Several equations can be used for calculating lean body mass based on age, sex, body weight, and height. We hypothesized that lean body mass is a better predictor of outcomes than the body mass index (BMI). This study used a multicenter cohort study database. The inclusion criteria were age ≥18 years and a diagnosis of sepsis or septic shock. BMI was classified into four categories: underweight (<18.5 kg/m2), normal (≥18.5-<25 kg/m2), overweight (≥25-<30 kg/m2), and obese (≥30 kg/m2). Four lean body mass equations were used and categorized on the basis of quartiles. The outcome was in-hospital mortality among different BMI and lean body mass groups. Among 85,558 patients, 3916 with sepsis were included in the analysis. Regarding BMI, in-hospital mortality was 36.9%, 29.8%, 26.7%, and 27.9% in patients who were underweight, normal weight, overweight, and obese, respectively (p < 0.01). High lean body mass did not show decreased mortality in all four equations. In critically ill patients with sepsis, BMI was a better predictor of in-hospital mortality than the lean body mass equation at intensive care unit (ICU) admission. To precisely predict in-hospital mortality, ICU-specific lean body mass equations are needed.

Characteristics of pulmonary artery catheter use in multicenter ICUs in Japan and the association with mortality: a multicenter cohort study using the Japanese Intensive care PAtient Database

BACKGROUND

It has been 50 years since the pulmonary artery catheter was introduced, but the actual use of pulmonary artery catheters in recent years is unknown. Some randomized controlled trials have reported no causality with mortality, but some observational studies have been published showing an association with mortality for patients with cardiogenic shock, and the association with a pulmonary artery catheter and mortality is unknown. The aim of this study was to investigate the utilization of pulmonary artery catheters (PACs) in the intensive care unit (ICU) and to examine their association with mortality, taking into account differences between hospitals.

METHODS

This is a retrospective analysis using the Japanese Intensive care PAtient Database, a multicenter, prospective, observational registry in Japanese ICUs. We included patients aged 16 years or older who were admitted to the ICU for reasons other than procedures. We excluded patients who were discharged within 24 h or had missing values. We compared the prognosis of patients with and without PAC. The primary outcome was hospital mortality. We performed propensity score analysis to adjust for baseline characteristics and hospital characteristics.

RESULTS

Among 184,705 patients in this registry from April 2015 to December 2020, 59,922 patients were included in the analysis. Most patients (94.0%) with a PAC in place had cardiovascular disease. There was a wide variation in the frequency of PAC use between hospitals, from 0 to 60.3% (median 14.4%, interquartile range 2.2-28.6%). Hospital mortality was not significantly different between the PAC use group and the non-PAC use group in patients after adjustment for propensity score analysis (3.9% vs 4.3%; difference, - 0.4%; 95% CI - 1.1 to 0.3; p = 0.32). Among patients with cardiac disease, those with post-open-heart surgery and those in shock, hospital mortality was also not significantly different between the two groups (3.4% vs 3.7%, p = 0.45, 1.7% vs 1.7%, p = 0.93, 4.8% vs 4.9%, p = 0.87).

CONCLUSIONS

The frequency of PAC use varied among hospitals. PAC use for ICU patients was not associated with lower hospital mortality after adjusting for differences between hospitals.

Postoperative norepinephrine versus dopamine in patients undergoing noncardiac surgery: a propensity-matched analysis using a nationwide intensive care database

BACKGROUND

Choosing catecholamines, such as norepinephrine and dopamine, for perioperative blood pressure control is essential for anesthesiologists and intensivists. However, studies specific to noncardiac surgery are limited. Therefore, we aimed to evaluate the effects of postoperative norepinephrine and dopamine on clinical outcomes in adult noncardiac surgery patients by analyzing a nationwide intensive care patient database.

METHODS

The Japanese Intensive care PAtient Database (JIPAD) was used for this multicenter retrospective study. Adult patients in the JIPAD who received norepinephrine or dopamine within 24 h after noncardiac surgery in 2018-2020 were included. We compared the norepinephrine and dopamine groups using a one-to-one propensity score matching analysis. The primary outcome was in-hospital mortality. Secondary outcomes were intensive care unit (ICU) mortality, hospital length of stay, and ICU length of stay.

RESULTS

A total of 6,236 eligible patients from 69 ICUs were allocated to the norepinephrine (n = 4,652) or dopamine (n = 1,584) group. Propensity score matching was used to create a matched cohort of 1,230 pairs. No differences in the in-hospital mortality was found between the two propensity score matched groups (risk difference: 0.41%, 95% CI [-1.15, 1.96], P = 0.608). Among the secondary outcomes, only the ICU length of stay was significantly shorter in the norepinephrine group than in the dopamine group (median length: 3 vs. 4 days, respectively; P < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

In adult patients after noncardiac surgery, norepinephrine was not associated with decreased mortality but was associated with a shorter ICU length of stay than dopamine.

Time definition of reintubation most relevant to patient outcomes in critically ill patients: a multicenter cohort study

BACKGROUND

Reintubation is a common complication in critically ill patients requiring mechanical ventilation. Although reintubation has been demonstrated to be associated with patient outcomes, its time definition varies widely among guidelines and in the literature. This study aimed to determine the association between reintubation and patient outcomes as well as the consequences of the time elapsed between extubation and reintubation on patient outcomes.

METHODS

This was a multicenter retrospective cohort study of critically ill patients conducted between April 2015 and March 2021. Adult patients who underwent mechanical ventilation and extubation in intensive care units (ICUs) were investigated utilizing the Japanese Intensive Care PAtient Database. The primary and secondary outcomes were in-hospital and ICU mortality. The association between reintubation and clinical outcomes was studied using Cox proportional hazards analysis. Among the patients who underwent reintubation, a Cox proportional hazard analysis was conducted to evaluate patient outcomes according to the number of days from extubation to reintubation.

RESULTS

Overall, 184,705 patients in 75 ICUs were screened, and 1849 patients underwent reintubation among 48,082 extubated patients. After adjustment for potential confounders, multivariable analysis revealed a significant association between reintubation and increased in-hospital and ICU mortality (adjusted hazard ratio [HR] 1.520, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.359-1.700, and adjusted HR 1.325, 95% CI 1.076-1.633, respectively). Among the reintubated patients, 1037 (56.1%) were reintubated within 24 h after extubation, 418 (22.6%) at 24-48 h, 198 (10.7%) at 48-72 h, 111 (6.0%) at 72-96 h, and 85 (4.6%) at 96-120 h. Multivariable Cox proportional hazard analysis showed that in-hospital and ICU mortality was highest in patients reintubated at 72-96 h (adjusted HR 1.528, 95% CI 1.062-2.197, and adjusted HR 1.334, 95% CI 0.756-2.352, respectively; referenced to reintubation within 24 h).

CONCLUSIONS

Reintubation was associated with a significant increase in in-hospital and ICU mortality. The highest mortality rates were observed in patients who were reintubated between 72 and 96 h after extubation. Further studies are warranted for the optimal observation of extubated patients in clinical practice and to strengthen the evidence for mechanical ventilation.

Physical function and mental health trajectories in COVID-19 patients following invasive mechanical ventilation: a prospective observational study

This prospective observational cohort study was performed to investigate the physical function and mental health trajectories of novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) patients requiring invasive mechanical ventilation (IMV) after discharge from the intensive care unit (ICU). The study population consisted of 64 patients (median age, 60 years; 85.9% male; median IMV duration, 9 days). At ICU discharge, 28.1% of the patients had Medical Research Council (MRC) sum score < 48 points, and prolonged IMV was significantly associated with lower MRC sum score and handgrip strength. Symptoms were similar between groups at ICU discharge, and the symptoms most commonly reported as moderate-to-severe were impaired well-being (52%), anxiety (43%), tiredness (41%), and depression (35%). Although muscle strength and mobility status were significantly improved after ICU discharge, Edmonton Symptom Assessment System score did not improve significantly in the prolonged IMV group. EuroQol five-dimension five-level summary index was significantly lower in the prolonged than short IMV group at 6 months after ICU discharge. We found substantial negative physical function and mental health consequences in the majority of surviving COVID-19 patients requiring IMV, with prolonged period of IMV showing greater negative effects not only immediately but also at 6 months after discharge from the ICU.

Propofol and survival: an updated meta-analysis of randomized clinical trials

BACKGROUND

Propofol is one of the most widely used hypnotic agents in the world. Nonetheless, propofol might have detrimental effects on clinically relevant outcomes, possibly due to inhibition of other interventions' organ protective properties. We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials to evaluate if propofol reduced survival compared to any other hypnotic agent in any clinical setting.

METHODS

We searched eligible studies in PubMed, Google Scholar, and the Cochrane Register of Clinical Trials. The following inclusion criteria were used: random treatment allocation and comparison between propofol and any comparator in any clinical setting. The primary outcome was mortality at the longest follow-up available. We conducted a fixed-effects meta-analysis for the risk ratio (RR). Using this RR and 95% confidence interval, we estimated the probability of any harm (RR > 1) through Bayesian statistics. We registered this systematic review and meta-analysis in PROSPERO International Prospective Register of Systematic Reviews (CRD42022323143).

RESULTS

We identified 252 randomized trials comprising 30,757 patients. Mortality was higher in the propofol group than in the comparator group (760/14,754 [5.2%] vs. 682/16,003 [4.3%]; RR = 1.10; 95% confidence interval, 1.01-1.20; p = 0.03; I² = 0%; number needed to harm = 235), corresponding to a 98.4% probability of any increase in mortality. A statistically significant mortality increase in the propofol group was confirmed in subgroups of cardiac surgery, adult patients, volatile agent as comparator, large studies, and studies with low mortality in the comparator arm.

CONCLUSIONS

Propofol may reduce survival in perioperative and critically ill patients. This needs careful assessment of the risk versus benefit of propofol compared to other agents while planning for large, pragmatic multicentric randomized controlled trials to provide a definitive answer.

Association between tracheostomy and survival in patients with coronavirus disease 2019 who require prolonged mechanical ventilation for more than 14 days: A multicenter cohort study

OBJECTIVE

Tracheostomy is a common procedure with potential prognostic advantages for patients who require prolonged mechanical ventilation (PMV). Early recommendations for patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) suggested delayed or limited tracheostomy considering the risk for viral transmission to clinicians. However, updated guidelines for tracheostomy with appropriate personal protective equipment have revised its indications. This study aimed to evaluate the association between tracheostomy and prognosis in patients with COVID-19 requiring PMV.

METHODS

This was a multicenter, retrospective cohort study using data from the nationwide Japanese Intensive Care PAtient Database. We included adult patients aged ≥16 years who were admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU) due to COVID-19 and who required PMV (for >14 days or until performance of tracheostomy). The primary outcome was hospital mortality, and the association between implementation of tracheostomy and patient prognosis was assessed using weighted Cox proportional hazards regression analysis with inverse probability of treatment weighting (IPTW) using the propensity score to address confounders.

RESULTS

Between January 2020 and February 2021, 453 patients with COVID-19 were observed. Data from 109 patients who required PMV were analyzed: 66 (60.6%) underwent tracheostomy and 38 (34.9%) died. After adjusting for potential confounders using IPTW, tracheostomy implementation was found to significantly reduce hospital mortality (hazard ratio [HR]: 0.316, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.163-0.612). Patients who underwent tracheostomy had a similarly decreased ICU and 28-day mortality (HR: 0.269, 95% CI: 0.124-0.581; HR 0.281, 95% CI: 0.094-0.839, respectively). A sensitivity analysis using different definitions of PMV duration consistently showed reduced mortality in patients who underwent tracheostomy.

CONCLUSION

The implementation of tracheostomy was associated with favorable patient prognosis among patients with COVID-19 requiring PMV. Our findings support proactive tracheostomy in critically ill patients with COVID-19 requiring mechanical ventilation for >14 days.

Development, validation, and feature extraction of a deep learning model predicting in-hospital mortality using Japan's largest national ICU database: a validation framework for transparent clinical Artificial Intelligence (cAI) development

OBJECTIVE

While clinical Artificial Intelligence (cAI) mortality prediction models and relevant studies have increased, limitations including the lack of external validation studies and inadequate model calibration leading to decreased overall accuracy have been observed. To combat this, we developed and evaluated a novel deep neural network (DNN) and a validation framework to promote transparent cAI development.

METHODS

Data from Japan's largest ICU database was used to develop the DNN model, predicting in-hospital mortality including ICU and post-ICU mortality by days since ICU discharge. The most important variables to the model were extracted with SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) to examine the DNN's efficacy as well as develop models that were also externally validated.

MAIN RESULTS

The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) for predicting ICU mortality was 0.94 [0.93-0.95], and 0.91 [0.90-0.92] for in-hospital mortality, ranging between 0.91-0.95 throughout one year since ICU discharge. An external validation using only the top 20 variables resulted with higher AUCs than traditional severity scores.

CONCLUSIONS

Our DNN model consistently generated AUCs between 0.91-0.95 regardless of days since ICU discharge. The 20 most important variables to our DNN, also generated higher AUCs than traditional severity scores regardless of days since ICU discharge. To our knowledge, this is the first study that predicts ICU and in-hospital mortality using cAI by post-ICU discharge days up to over a year. This finding could contribute to increased transparency on cAI applications.

An anthropometric evidence against the use of age-based estimation of bodyweight in pediatric patients admitted to intensive care units

Age-based bodyweight estimation is commonly used in pediatric settings, but pediatric ICU patients often have preexisting comorbidity and resulting failure to thrive, hence their anthropometric measures may be small-for-age. Accordingly, age-based methods could overestimate bodyweight in such settings, resulting in iatrogenic complications. We performed a retrospective cohort study using pediatric data (aged < 16 years) registered in the Japanese Intensive Care Patient Database from April 2015 to March 2020. All the anthropometric data were overlaid on the growth charts. The estimation accuracy of 4 age-based and 2 height-based bodyweight estimations was evaluated by the Bland-Altman plot analysis and the proportion of estimates within 10% of the measured weight (ρ10%). We analyzed 6616 records. The distributions of both bodyweight and height were drifted to the lower values throughout the childhood while the distribution of BMI was similar to the general healthy children. The accuracy in bodyweight estimation with age-based formulae was inferior to that with height-based methods. These data demonstrated that the pediatric patients in the Japanese ICU were proportionally small-for-age, suggesting a special risk of using the conventional age-based estimation but supporting the use of height-based estimation of the bodyweight in the pediatric ICU.

Association between remimazolam and postoperative delirium in older adults undergoing elective cardiovascular surgery: a prospective cohort study

PURPOSE

Postoperative delirium is one of the most common complications after cardiovascular surgery in older adults. Benzodiazepines are a reported risk factor for delirium; however, there are no studies investigating remimazolam, a novel anesthetic agent. Therefore, we prospectively investigated the effect of remimazolam on postoperative delirium.

METHODS

We included elective cardiovascular surgery patients aged ≥ 65 years at Hamamatsu University Hospital between August 2020 and February 2022. Patients who received general anesthesia with remimazolam were compared with those who received other anesthetics (control group). The primary outcome was delirium within 5 days after surgery. Secondary outcomes were delirium during intensive care unit stay and hospitalization, total duration of delirium, subsyndromal delirium, and differences in the Mini-Mental State Examination scores from preoperative to postoperative days 2 and 5. To adjust for differences in the groups' baseline covariates, we used stabilized inverse probability weighting as the primary analysis and propensity score matching as the sensitivity analysis.

RESULTS

We enrolled 200 patients; 78 in the remimazolam group and 122 in the control group. After stabilized inverse probability weighting, 30.3% of the remimazolam group patients and 26.6% of the control group patients developed delirium within 5 days (risk difference, 3.8%; 95% confidence interval -11.5% to 19.1%; p = 0.63). The secondary outcomes did not differ significantly between the groups, and the sensitivity analysis results were similar to those for the primary analysis.

CONCLUSION

Remimazolam was not significantly associated with postoperative delirium when compared with other anesthetic agents.

Recalibration of prediction model was needed for monitoring health care quality in subgroups: a retrospective cohort study

OBJECTIVES

To evaluate the predictive ability of a mortality prediction model in subgroups of intensive care unit (ICU) patients and test the validity for monitoring the outcome.

STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING

A Japanese ICU database was used for the analyses. Adults admitted to an ICU between April 1, 2019, and March 31, 2020, were included. Nine clinically relevant subgroups were selected, and we evaluated the discrimination and calibration of the Japan Risk of Death model, a recalibrated Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation III-j model. Funnel plots and exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) charts were used to check its validity for monitoring in-hospital mortality. If the predictive performance was poor, the model was recalibrated and model performance was reassessed.

RESULTS

The study population comprised 14,513 patients across nine subgroups. The in-hospital mortality rate ranged from 11.3% to 30.9%. The calibration was poor in most subgroups, and the funnel plots and EWMA charts frequently revealed "out-of-control" signals crossing the control limit of three standard deviations (SDs). The calibration improved after recalibration, and the number of "out-of-control" signals decreased.

CONCLUSION

When monitoring the quality of care among subgroups of patients, testing the predictive ability and recalibration of the risk model are needed.

Impact of Antibiotic Time-Outs in Multidisciplinary ICU Rounds for Antimicrobial Stewardship Program on Patient Survival: A Controlled Before-and-After Study

The antimicrobial stewardship program (ASP) is an important quality improvement initiative that is recommended in the ICU. However, the shortage of infectious disease physicians in Japan has led to the need for simpler methods for implementing ASPs. We investigated whether antibiotic time-outs (ATOs) during multidisciplinary rounds as part of an ASP can improve patient survival and reduce the number of days of therapy (DOT) with antibiotics.

DESIGN

Single-center controlled before-and-after study.

SETTING

Medical/surgical ICU in a tertiary university medical center in Tokyo, Japan.

PATIENTS

All patients 16 years old or older admitted consecutively in the ICU between October 2016 and March 2020.

INTERVENTIONS

An intensivist-driven ICU multidisciplinary round was introduced in October 2016, and ATOs with ICU rounds were implemented in June 2018. ATOs were conducted 3, 7, and 14 days after initiation of antibiotics.

MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS

The primary outcome was the subdistribution hazard ratio (SHR) of survival to hospital discharge compared between multidisciplinary rounds (phase 1) and ATO during multidisciplinary rounds (phase 2) using the multivariable Fine-Gray model. The secondary outcomes were the SHR of survival to ICU discharge and the trends in the DOT with IV antibiotics per 1,000 patient-days between October 2016 and March 2020 by using interrupted time-series analysis. The number of patients in phases 1 and 2 was 777 and 796, respectively. The group that underwent ATO during multidisciplinary rounds showed a significant increase in the survival to hospital discharge in comparison with the multidisciplinary round-only group (SHR, 1.13; 95% CI, 1.02-1.25); however, the SHR of survival to ICU discharge showed no significant intergroup difference. The DOT with total IV antibiotics decreased after ATO implementation (change in intercept, -178.26; 95% CI, -317.74 to -38.78; change in slope, -7.00; 95% CI, -15.77 to 1.78).

CONCLUSIONS

ATOs during multidisciplinary rounds are associated with improved patient survival and reduced DOT.

Timing of tracheostomy and patient outcomes in critically ill patients requiring extracorporeal membrane oxygenation: a single-center retrospective observational study

BACKGROUND

Extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO) is an integral method of life support in critically ill patients with severe cardiopulmonary failure; however, such patients generally require prolonged mechanical ventilation and exhibit high mortality rates. Tracheostomy is commonly performed in patients on mechanical ventilation, and its early implementation has potential advantages for favorable patient outcomes. This study aimed to investigate the association between tracheostomy timing and patient outcomes, including mortality, in patients requiring ECMO.

METHODS

We conducted a single-center retrospective observational study of consecutively admitted patients who were supported by ECMO and underwent tracheostomy during intensive care unit (ICU) admission at a tertiary care center from April 2014 until December 2021. The primary outcome was hospital mortality. Using the quartiles of tracheostomy timing, the patients were classified into four groups for comparison. The association between the quartiles of tracheostomy timing and mortality was explored using multivariable logistic regression models.

RESULTS

Of the 293 patients treated with ECMO, 98 eligible patients were divided into quartiles 1 (≤ 15 days), quartile 2:16-19 days, quartile 3:20-26 days, and 4 (> 26 days). All patients underwent surgical tracheostomy and 35 patients underwent tracheostomy during ECMO. The complications of tracheostomy were comparable between the groups, whereas the duration of ECMO and ICU length of stay increased significantly as the quartiles of tracheostomy timing increased. Patients in quartile 1 had the lowest hospital mortality rate (19.2%), whereas those in quartile 4 had the highest mortality rate (50.0%). Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed a significant association between the increment of the quartiles of tracheostomy timing and hospital mortality (adjusted odds ratio for quartile increment:1.55, 95% confidence interval 1.03-2.35, p for trend = 0.037).

CONCLUSIONS

The timing of tracheostomy in patients requiring ECMO was significantly associated with patient outcomes in a time-dependent manner. Further investigation is warranted to determine the optimal timing of tracheostomy in terms of mortality.

Clinical impact of physician staffing transition in intensive care units: a retrospective observational study

Background

Intensivists play an essential role in improving the outcomes of critically ill patients in intensive care units (ICUs). The transition of ICU physician staffing from low-intensity ICUs (elective intensivist or no intensivist consultation) to high-intensity ICUs (mandatory intensivist consultation or a closed ICU) improves clinical outcomes. However, whether a transition from high-intensity to low-intensity ICU staffing affects ICU outcomes and quality of care remains unknown.

Methods

A retrospective observational study was conducted to examine the impact of high- versus low-intensity staffing models on all-cause mortality in a suburban secondary community hospital with 400 general beds and 8 ICU beds. The ICU was switched from a high-intensity staffing model (high-former period) to low-intensity staffing in July 2019 (low-mid period) and then back to high-intensity staffing in March 2020 (high-latter period). Patients admitted from the emergency department, general ward, or operating room after emergency surgery were enrolled in these three periods and compared, balancing the predicted mortality and covariates of the patients. The primary outcome was all-cause mortality analyzed using hazard ratios (HRs) from Cox proportional hazards regression. An interrupted time-series analysis (ITSA) was also conducted to evaluate the effects of events (level change) and time.

Results

There were 962 eligible admissions, of which 251, 213, and 498 occurred in the high-former, low-mid, and high-latter periods, respectively. In the matched group (n = 600), the all-cause mortality rate comparing the high-former period with the low-mid period showed an HR of 0.88 [95% confidence interval (CI), 0.56, 1.39; p = 0.58] and that comparing the high-latter period with the low-mid period showed an HR of 0.84 [95% CI, 0.54, 1.30; p = 0.43]. The result for comparison between the three periods was p = 0.80. ITSA showed level changes of 4.05% [95% CI, -13.1, 21.2; p = 0.63] when ICU staffing changed from the high-former to the low-mid period and 1.35% [95% CI, -13.8, 16.5; p = 0.86] when ICU staffing changed from the low-mid to the high-latter period.

Conclusion

There was no statistically significant difference in all-cause mortality among the three ICU staffing periods. This study suggests that low-intensity ICU staffing might not worsen clinical outcomes in the ICU in a medium-sized community hospital. Multiple factors, including the presence of an intensivist, other medical staff, and practical guidelines, influence the prognosis of critically ill patients.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12871-022-01905-0.

Association between ICU admission during off-hours and in-hospital mortality: a multicenter registry in Japan

BACKGROUND

The effect of ICU admission time on patient outcomes has been shown to be controversial in several studies from a number of countries. The imbalance between ICU staffing and medical resources during off-hours possibly influences the outcome for critically ill or injured patients. Here, we aimed to evaluate the association between ICU admission during off-hours and in-hospital mortality in Japan.

METHODS

This study was an observational study using a multicenter registry (Japanese Intensive care PAtient Database). From the registry, we enrolled adult patients admitted to ICUs from April 2015 to March 2019. Patients with elective surgery, readmission to ICUs, or ICU admissions only for medical procedures were excluded. We compared in-hospital mortalities between ICU patients admitted during off-hours and office-hours, using a multilevel logistic regression model which allows for the random effect of each hospital.

RESULTS

A total of 28,200 patients were enrolled with a median age of 71 years (interquartile range [IQR], 59 to 80). The median APACHE II score was 18 (IQR, 13 to 24) with no significant difference between patients admitted during off-hours and those admitted during office-hours. The in-hospital mortality was 3399/20,403 (16.7%) when admitted during off-hours and 1604/7797 (20.6%) when admitted during office-hours. Thus, off-hours ICU admission was associated with lower in-hospital mortality (adjusted odds ratio 0.91, [95% confidence interval, 0.84-0.99]).

CONCLUSIONS

ICU admissions during off-hours were associated with lower in-hospital mortality in Japan. These results were against our expectations and raised some concerns for a possible imbalance between ICU staffing and workload during office-hours. Further studies with a sufficient dataset required for comparing with other countries are warranted in the future.

Day of surgery and mortality after pancreatoduodenectomy: A retrospective analysis of 29 270 surgical cases of pancreatic head cancer from Japan

BACKGROUND/PURPOSE

The day of the week can impact medical treatment outcomes; however, few large-scale, disease-specific studies have focused on the association between the day of the week and mortality in patients after pancreatoduodenectomy for pancreatic head cancer.

METHODS

Data were obtained from the National Clinical Database. Twenty-two clinical variables were adopted for hierarchal logistic regression modeling to determine adjusted odds ratios (ORs) for surgical mortality after elective pancreatoduodenectomy.

RESULTS

The 30-day mortality and surgical mortality rates were 1.0% and 1.7%, respectively (n = 29 720). Surgeries were performed the least on Fridays (13.4%) compared with other weekdays. Crude rates of severe postoperative complications (mean, 14.1%; range, 13.5%-14.8%) and pancreatic fistulas (mean, 10.0%; range, 9.6%-10.3%) remained stable throughout the week. Unadjusted/adjusted ORs did not significantly differ between Friday and Monday (0.868, 95% CI: 0.636-1.173, P = .365, and 0.928, 95% CI: 0.668-1.287, P = .653, respectively), and results were similar for the remaining weekdays. Nineteen independent factors were associated with surgical mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

The rate of perioperative mortality for elective pancreatoduodenectomy is low in Japan, with no evidence of disparities in surgical mortality rates between weekdays.

Predict models for prolonged ICU stay using APACHE II, APACHE III and SAPS II scores: A Japanese multicenter retrospective cohort study

Prolonged ICU stays are associated with high costs and increased mortality. Thus, early prediction of such stays would help clinicians to plan initial interventions, which could lead to efficient utilization of ICU resources. The aim of this study was to develop models for predicting prolonged stays in Japanese ICUs using APACHE II, APACHE III and SAPS II scores. In this multicenter retrospective cohort study, we analyzed the cases of 85,558 patients registered in the Japanese Intensive care Patient Database between 2015 and 2019. Prolonged ICU stay was defined as an ICU stay of >14 days. Multivariable logistic regression analyses were performed to develop three predictive models for prolonged ICU stay using APACHE II, APACHE III and SAPS II scores, respectively. After exclusions, 79,620 patients were analyzed, 2,364 of whom (2.97%) experienced prolonged ICU stays. Multivariable logistic regression analyses showed that severity scores, BMI, MET/RRT, postresuscitation, readmission, length of stay before ICU admission, and diagnosis at ICU admission were significantly associated with higher risk of prolonged ICU stay in all models. The present study developed predictive models for prolonged ICU stay using severity scores. These models may be helpful for efficient utilization of ICU resources.

Mid-term results of surgical aortic valve replacement with bioprostheses in hemodialysis patients

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HD patients underwent SAVR-BP for AS (hospital mortality, 8.8%; 5-year mortality, 42.1%).

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Preoperative risk factors for 5-year mortality: age, hyperlipidemia, LVDd, LVDs, and Japan SCORE.

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Postoperative risk factors for 5-year mortality: length of ICU stay, and albumin level at discharge.

Background

Limited studies have assessed the factors affecting prognosis in hemodialysis (HD) patients who undergo surgical aortic valve replacement with a bioprostheses (SAVR-BP). This study aimed to evaluate the outcomes of HD patients who had undergone SAVR-BP for aortic stenosis (AS) and identify the risk factors for mortality.

Methods

This retrospective study included 57 HD patients who had undergone SAVR-BP for AS between July 2009 and December 2020. Multivariate logistic regression was used to predict factors associated with mid-term outcomes and death or survival. Kaplan − Meier curves were also generated for mid-term survival.

Results

The in-hospital mortality rate was 8.8%, and the 5-year mortality rate was 42.1%. The independent predictors of 5-year mortality were preoperative age (hazard ratio [HR], 1.57; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.175–2.083, p = 0.002), hyperlipidemia (HR, 0.02; 95% CI, 0.002–0.297, p = 0.004), left ventricular diastolic diameter (HR, 1.74; 95% CI, 1.142–2.649, p = 0.010), left ventricular systolic diameter (HR, 0.61; 95% CI, 0.392–0.939, p = 0.025), and Japan SCORE (HR, 1.28; 95% CI, 1.052–1.563, p = 0.014). The postoperative predictors included intensive care unit stay (HR, 1.11; 95% CI, 1.035–1.194, p = 0.004) and albumin level (HR, 0.38; 95% CI, 0.196–0.725, p = 0.003).

Conclusions

The 5-year prognosis of HD patients undergoing SAVR may be improved by early diagnosis (before the occurrence of LV hypertrophy/enlargement) and nutritional management with oral intake to alleviate postoperative hypoalbuminemia.

Registration number of clinical studies: UMIN000047410.

Development and validation of early prediction models for new-onset functional impairment at hospital discharge of ICU admission

PURPOSE

We aimed to develop and validate models for predicting new-onset functional impairment after intensive care unit (ICU) admission with predictors routinely collected within 2 days of admission.

METHODS

In this multi-center retrospective cohort study of acute care hospitals in Japan, we identified adult patients who were admitted to the ICU with independent activities of daily living before hospitalization and survived for at least 2 days from April 2014 to October 2020. The primary outcome was functional impairment defined as Barthel Index ≤ 60 at hospital discharge. In the internal validation dataset (April 2014 to March 2019), using routinely collected 94 candidate predictors within 2 days of ICU admission, we trained and tuned the six conventional and machine-learning models with repeated random sub-sampling cross-validation. We computed the variable importance of each predictor to the models. In the temporal validation dataset (April 2019 to October 2020), we measured the performance of these models.

RESULTS

We identified 19,846 eligible patients. Functional impairment at discharge was developed in 33% of patients (n = 6488/19,846). In the temporal validation dataset, all six models showed good discrimination ability with areas under the curve above 0.86, and the differences among the six models were negligible. Variable importance revealed newly detected early predictors, including worsened neurologic conditions and catabolism biomarkers such as decreased serum albumin and increased blood urea nitrogen.

CONCLUSION

We successfully developed early prediction models of new-onset functional impairment after ICU admission that achieved high performance using only data routinely collected within 2 days of ICU admission.

Postoperative ICU admission following major elective surgery: A nationwide inpatient database study

BACKGROUND

Whether the routine use of the ICU after major elective surgery improves postoperative outcomes is not well established.

OBJECTIVES

To describe the association between use of postoperative ICU admission and clinical outcomes for patients undergoing major elective surgery.

DESIGN

Observational study.

SETTING

Nationwide inpatient database in Japan, July 2010 to March 2018.

PATIENTS

Patients undergoing one of 15 major elective orthopaedic, gastrointestinal, neurological, thoracic or cardiovascular surgical procedures.

INTERVENTION

ICU admission on the day of surgery. ICU was defined as a separate unit providing critical care services with around-the-clock physician staffing and nursing, the equipment necessary for critical care and a nurse-to-patient ratio at least one to two.

MAIN OUTCOME

In-hospital mortality. Patient-level and hospital-level analyses were performed.

RESULTS

Overall, 2 011 265 patients from 1524 hospitals were assessed. The cohort size ranged from 38 547 patients in 467 hospitals for surgical clipping for cerebral aneurysms to 308 952 patients in 599 hospitals for spinal fixation, laminectomy or laminoplasty. In the patient-level analyses, there were no significant mortality differences among patients undergoing the 12 major noncardiovascular surgical procedures, whereas postoperative ICU admission was associated with trends towards lower in-hospital mortality among patients undergoing coronary artery bypass grafting, risk difference -1.0% (95% CI -1.8 to -0.1) open aortic aneurysm repair, risk difference -0.6% (95% CI -1.3 to 0.1), and heart valve replacement, risk difference -0.7% (95% CI - 1.6 to 0.1). In the hospital-level analyses, similar to the results of the patient-level analyses, a higher proportion of postoperative ICU admission at hospital level was associated with trends toward lower in-hospital mortality for patients undergoing the three cardiovascular surgical procedures.

CONCLUSION

This nationwide observational study showed that postoperative ICU admission was associated with improved survival outcomes among patients undergoing three types of cardiac surgery but not among patients undergoing low-risk elective surgery.

Association between early tracheostomy and patient outcomes in critically ill patients on mechanical ventilation: a multicenter cohort study

Background

Tracheostomy is commonly performed in critically ill patients because of its clinical advantages over prolonged translaryngeal endotracheal intubation. Early tracheostomy has been demonstrated to reduce the duration of mechanical ventilation and length of stay. However, its association with mortality remains ambiguous. This study aimed to evaluate the association between the timing of tracheostomy and mortality in patients receiving mechanical ventilation.

Methods

We performed a retrospective cohort analysis of adult patients who underwent tracheostomy during their intensive care unit (ICU) admission between April 2015 and March 2019. Patients who underwent tracheostomy before or after 29 days of ICU admission were excluded. Data were collected from the nationwide Japanese Intensive Care Patient Database. The primary outcome was hospital mortality. The timing of tracheostomy was stratified by quartile, and the association between patient outcomes was evaluated using regression analysis.

Results

Among the 85558 patients admitted to 46 ICUs during the study period, 1538 patients were included in the analysis. The quartiles for tracheostomy were as follows: quartile 1, ≤ 6 days; quartile 2, 7–10 days; quartile 3, 11–14 days; and quartile 4, > 14 days. Hospital mortality was significantly higher in quartile 2 (adjusted odds ratio [aOR]: 1.52, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.08–2.13), quartile 3 (aOR: 1.82, 95% CI: 1.28–2.59), and quartile 4 (aOR: 2.26, 95% CI: 1.61–3.16) (p for trend < 0.001) than in quartile 1. A similar trend was observed in the subgroup analyses of patients with impaired consciousness (Glasgow Coma Scale score < 8) and respiratory failure (PaO₂:FiO₂ ≤ 300) at ICU admission (p for trend = 0.081 and 0.001, respectively).

Conclusions

This multi-institutional observational study demonstrated that the timing of tracheostomy was significantly and independently associated with hospital mortality in a stepwise manner. Thus, early tracheostomy may be beneficial for patient outcomes, including mortality, and warrants further investigation.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s40560-022-00610-x.

Dopamine use and its consequences in the intensive care unit: a cohort study utilizing the Japanese Intensive care PAtient Database

Background

Dopamine is used to treat patients with shock in intensive care units (ICU) throughout the world, despite recent evidence against its use. The aim of this study was to identify the latest practice of dopamine use in Japan and also to explore the consequences of dopamine use in a large Asian population.

Methods

The Japanese Intensive Care PAtient Database (JIPAD), the largest intensive care database in Japan, was utilized. Inclusion criteria included: 1) age 18 years or older, 2) admitted to the ICU for reasons other than procedures, 3) ICU length of stay of 24 h or more, and 4) treatment with either dopamine or noradrenaline within 24 h of admission. The primary outcome was in-hospital mortality. Multivariable regression analysis was performed, followed by a propensity score-matched analysis.

Results

Of the 132,354 case records, 14,594 records from 56 facilities were included in this analysis. Dopamine was administered to 4,653 patients and noradrenaline to 11,844. There was no statistically significant difference in facility characteristics between frequent dopamine users (N = 28) and infrequent users (N = 28). Patients receiving dopamine had more cardiovascular diagnosis codes (70% vs. 42%; p < 0.01), more post-elective surgery status (60% vs. 31%), and lower APACHE III scores compared to patients given noradrenaline alone (70.7 vs. 83.0; p < 0.01). Multivariable analysis showed an odds ratio for in-hospital mortality of 0.86 [95% CI: 0.71–1.04] in the dopamine ≤ 5 μg/kg/min group, 1.46 [95% CI: 1.18–1.82] in the 5–15 μg/kg/min group, and 3.30 [95% CI: 1.19–9.19] in the > 15 μg/kg/min group. In a 1:1 propensity score matching for dopamine use as a vasopressor (570 pairs), both in-hospital mortality and ICU mortality were significantly higher in the dopamine group compared to no dopamine group (22.5% vs. 17.4%, p = 0.038; 13.3% vs. 8.8%, p = 0.018), as well as ICU length of stay (mean 9.3 days vs. 7.4 days, p = 0.004).

Conclusion

Dopamine is still widely used in Japan. The results of this study suggest detrimental effects of dopamine use specifically at a high dose.

Trial registration Retrospectively registered upon approval of the Institutional Review Board and the administration office of JIPAD.

Employment status and its associated factors for patients 12 months after intensive care: Secondary analysis of the SMAP-HoPe study

Background

Returning to work is a serious issue that affects patients who are discharged from the intensive care unit (ICU). This study aimed to clarify the employment status and the perceived household financial status of ICU patients 12 months following ICU discharge. Additionally, we evaluated whether there exists an association between depressive symptoms and subsequent unemployment status.

Methods

This study was a subgroup analysis of the published Survey of Multicenter Assessment with Postal questionnaire for Post-Intensive Care Syndrome for Home Living Patients (the SMAP-HoPe study) in Japan. Eligible patients were those who were employed before ICU admission, stayed in the ICU for at least three nights between October 2019 and July 2020, and lived at home for 12 months after discharge. We assessed the employment status, subjective cognitive functions, household financial status, Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale, and EuroQOL-5 dimensions of physical function at 12 months following intensive care.

Results

This study included 328 patients, with a median age of 64 (interquartile range [IQR], 52–72) years. Of these, 79 (24%) were unemployed 12 months after ICU discharge. The number of patients who reported worsened financial status was significantly higher in the unemployed group (p<0.01) than in the employed group. Multivariable analysis showed that higher age (odds ratio [OR], 1.06; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.03–1.08]) and greater severity of depressive symptoms (OR, 1.13 [95% CI, 1.05–1.23]) were independent factors for unemployment status at 12 months after ICU discharge.

Conclusions

We found that 24.1% of our patients who had been employed prior to ICU admission were subsequently unemployed following ICU discharge and that depressive symptoms were associated with unemployment status. The government and the local municipalities should provide medical and financial support to such patients. Additionally, community and workplace support for such patients are warranted.

Association Between the Presence of Pulmonary Hypertension Before Cardiovascular Surgery and the Nephroprotective Effect of Carperitide: A Retrospective Cohort Study

Introduction

We hypothesized that the nephroprotective and diuretic effects of carperitide are effective in patients with pulmonary hypertension. We examined the presence of preoperative pulmonary hypertension and the effects of carperitide.

Methods

In this retrospective cohort study, we included patients aged 20 years or older who received carperitide during cardiovascular surgery and were admitted to the postoperative intensive care unit. We used hospital data from March 2019 to September 2021. The outcomes were the incidence of acute kidney injury, the number of patients using renal replacement therapy in the intensive care unit, urine volume in the first 24 hours after surgery, and the difference in serum creatinine concentrations between before and after surgery. After adjusting for confounding factors by multivariate analysis, we compared the difference in outcomes with and without preoperative pulmonary hypertension (systolic pulmonary artery pressure ≥36 mmHg).

Results

The study included 244 patients, with 72 (29.5%) in the pulmonary hypertension group and 172 (70.5%) in the control group. Acute kidney injury occurred in eight (11.1%) patients in the pulmonary hypertension group and in 18 (10.5%) patients in the control group, with no significant difference by logistic regression analysis (odds ratio 1.40, 95% confidence interval 0.54-3.62, p=0.49). Additionally, the use of renal replacement therapy, urine volume at 24 hours postoperatively, and the difference in serum creatinine concentrations were not different between the two groups.

Conclusions

Our results suggest that the effect of carperitide during cardiovascular surgery is not affected by the presence or absence of pulmonary hypertension.

Epidemiology of Cardiopulmonary Arrest and Outcome of Resuscitation in PICU Across China: A Prospective Multicenter Cohort Study

OBJECTIVE

To investigate the epidemiology and the effectiveness of resuscitation from cardiopulmonary arrest (CPA) among critically ill children and adolescents during pediatric intensive care unit (PICU) stay across China.

METHODS

A prospective multicenter study was conducted in 11 PICUs in tertiary hospitals. Consecutively hospitalized critically ill children, from 29-day old to 18-year old, who had suffered from CPA and required cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR) in the PICU were enrolled (December 2017-October 2018). Data were collected and analyzed using the "in-hospital Utstein style." Neurological outcome was assessed with the Pediatric Cerebral Performance Category (PCPC) scale among children who had survived. Factors associated with the return of spontaneous circulation (ROSC) and survival at discharge were evaluated using multivariate logistic regression.

RESULTS

Among 11,599 admissions to PICU, 372 children (3.2%) had CPA during their stay; 281 (75.5%) received CPR, and 91 (24.5%) did not (due to an order of "Do Not Resuscitate" requested by their guardians). Cardiopulmonary disease was the most common reason for CPA (28.1% respiratory and 19.6% circulatory). The most frequent initial dysrhythmia was bradycardia (79%). In total, 170 (60.3%) of the total children had an ROSC, 91 had (37.4%) survived till hospital discharge, 28 (11.5%) had survived 6 months, and 19 (7.8%) had survived for 1 year after discharge. Among the 91 children who were viable at discharge, 47.2% (43/91) received a good PCPC score (1-3). The regression analysis results revealed that the duration of CPR and the dose of epinephrine were significantly associated with ROSC, while the duration of CPR, number of CPR attempts, ventricular tachycardia/ventricular fibrillation (VT/VF), and the dose of epinephrine were significantly associated with survival at discharge.

CONCLUSION

The prevalence of CPA in critically ill children and adolescents is relatively high in China. The duration of CPR and the dose of epinephrine are associated with ROSC. The long-term prognosis of children who had survived after CPR needs further improvement.

The story of critical care in Asia: a narrative review

Background

Asia has more critically ill people than any other part of our planet. The aim of this article is to review the development of critical care as a specialty, critical care societies and education and research, the epidemiology of critical illness as well as epidemics and pandemics, accessibility and cost and quality of critical care, culture and end-of-life care, and future directions for critical care in Asia.

Main body

Although the first Asian intensive care units (ICUs) surfaced in the 1960s and the 1970s and specialisation started in the 1990s, multiple challenges still exist, including the lack of intensivists, critical care nurses, and respiratory therapists in many countries. This is aggravated by the brain drain of skilled ICU staff to high-income countries. Critical care societies have been integral to the development of the discipline and have increasingly contributed to critical care education, although critical care research is only just starting to take off through collaboration across groups. Sepsis, increasingly aggravated by multidrug resistance, contributes to a significant burden of critical illness, while epidemics and pandemics continue to haunt the continent intermittently. In particular, the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has highlighted the central role of critical care in pandemic response. Accessibility to critical care is affected by lack of ICU beds and high costs, and quality of critical care is affected by limited capability for investigations and treatment in low- and middle-income countries. Meanwhile, there are clear cultural differences across countries, with considerable variations in end-of-life care. Demand for critical care will rise across the continent due to ageing populations and rising comorbidity burdens. Even as countries respond by increasing critical care capacity, the critical care community must continue to focus on training for ICU healthcare workers, processes anchored on evidence-based medicine, technology guided by feasibility and impact, research applicable to Asian and local settings, and rallying of governments for support for the specialty.

Conclusions

Critical care in Asia has progressed through the years, but multiple challenges remain. These challenges should be addressed through a collaborative approach across disciplines, ICUs, hospitals, societies, governments, and countries.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s40560-021-00574-4.

PROSAFE: a European endeavor to improve quality of critical care medicine in seven countries

BACKGROUND

Long-lasting shared research databases are an important source of epidemiological information and can promote comparison between different healthcare services. Here we present PROSAFE, an advanced international research network in intensive care medicine, with the focus on assessing and improving the quality of care. The project involved 343 ICUs in seven countries. All patients admitted to the ICU were eligible for data collection.

METHODS

The PROSAFE network collected data using the same electronic case report form translated into the corresponding languages. A complex, multidimensional validation system was implemented to ensure maximum data quality. Individual and aggregate reports by country, region, and ICU type were prepared annually. A web-based data-sharing system allowed participants to autonomously perform different analyses on both own data and the entire database.

RESULTS

The final analysis was restricted to 262 general ICUs and 432,223 adult patients, mostly admitted to Italian units, where a research network had been active since 1991. Organization of critical care medicine in the seven countries was relatively similar, in terms of staffing, case mix and procedures, suggesting a common understanding of the role of critical care medicine. Conversely, ICU equipment differed, and patient outcomes showed wide variations among countries.

CONCLUSIONS

PROSAFE is a permanent, stable, open access, multilingual database for clinical benchmarking, ICU self-evaluation and research within and across countries, which offers a unique opportunity to improve the quality of critical care. Its entry into routine clinical practice on a voluntary basis is testimony to the success and viability of the endeavor.

Conventional risk prediction models fail to accurately predict mortality risk among patients with coronavirus disease 2019 in intensive care units: a difficult time to assess clinical severity and quality of care

Since the start of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, it has remained unknown whether conventional risk prediction tools used in intensive care units are applicable to patients with COVID-19. Therefore, we assessed the performance of established risk prediction models using the Japanese Intensive Care database. Discrimination and calibration of the models were poor. Revised risk prediction models are needed to assess the clinical severity of COVID-19 patients and monitor healthcare quality in ICUs overwhelmed by patients with COVID-19.

Prevalence of and risk factors for post-intensive care syndrome: Multicenter study of patients living at home after treatment in 12 Japanese intensive care units, SMAP-HoPe study

Few studies have examined the epidemiology of post-intensive care syndrome in Japan. This study investigated the mental health and quality of life of patients living at home in Japan after intensive care unit (ICU) discharge. Additionally, we examined whether unplanned admission to the ICU was associated with more severe post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD), anxiety, and depressive symptoms. An ambidirectional cohort study was conducted at 12 ICUs in Japan. Patients who stayed in the ICU for > 3 nights and were living at home for 1 year afterward were included. One year after ICU discharge, we retrospectively screened patients and performed a mail survey on a monthly basis, including the Impact of Event Scale—Revised (IER-S), the Hospital Anxiety Depression Scale (HADS), and the EuroQOL—5 Dimension (EQ-5D-L) questionnaires. Patients’ characteristics, delirium and coma status, drugs used, and ICU and hospital length of stay were assessed from medical records. Descriptive statistics and multilevel linear regression modeling were used to examine our hypothesis. Among 7,030 discharged patients, 854 patients were surveyed by mail. Of these, 778 patients responded (response rate = 91.1%). The data from 754 patients were analyzed. The median IES-R score was 3 (interquartile range [IQR] = 1‒9), and the prevalence of suspected PTSD was 6.0%. The median HADS anxiety score was 4.00 (IQR = 1.17‒6.00), and the prevalence of anxiety was 16.6%. The median HADS depression score was 5 (IQR = 2‒8), and the prevalence of depression was 28.1%. EQ-5D-L scores were lower in our participants than in the sex- and age-matched Japanese population. Unplanned admission was an independent risk factor for more severe PTSD, anxiety, and depressive symptoms. Approximately one-third of patients in the general ICU population experienced mental health issues one year after ICU discharge. Unplanned admission was an independent predictor for more severe PTSD symptoms.

Epidemiology of Cardiopulmonary Resuscitation in Critically Ill Children Admitted to Pediatric Intensive Care Units Across England: A Multicenter Retrospective Cohort Study

Background Cardiopulmonary arrests are a major contributor to mortality and morbidity in pediatric intensive care units (PICUs). Understanding the epidemiology and risk factors for CPR may inform national quality improvement initiatives. Methods and Results A retrospective cohort analysis using prospectively collected data from the Paediatric Intensive Care Audit Network database. The Paediatric Intensive Care Audit Network contains data on all PICU admissions in the United Kingdom. We identified children who received cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR) in 23 PICUs in England (2013-2017). Incidence rates of CPR and associated factors were analyzed. Logistic regression was used to estimate the size and precision of associations. Cumulative incidence of CPR was 2.2% for 68 114 admissions over 5 years with an incidence rate of 4.9 episodes/1000 bed days. Cardiovascular diagnosis (odds ratio [OR], 2.30; 95% CI, 2.02-2.61), age <1 year (OR, 1.84; 95% CI, 1.65-2.04), the Paediatric Index of Mortality 2 score on admission (OR, 1.045; 95% CI, 1.042-1.047) and longer length of stay (OR, 1.013; 95% CI, 1.012-1.014) were associated with increased odds of receiving CPR. We also found a higher risk of CPR associated with a history of preadmission cardiac arrest (OR, 20.69; [95% CI, 18.16-23.58) and for children with a cardiac condition admitted to a noncardiac PICU (OR, 2.75; 95% CI, 1.91-3.98). Children from Black (OR, 1.68; 95% CI, 1.36-2.07) and Asian (OR, 1.49; 95% CI, 1.28-1.74) racial/ethnic backgrounds were at higher risk of receiving CPR in PICU than White children. Conclusions Data from this first multicenter study from England provides a foundation for further research and evidence for benchmarking and quality improvement for prevention of cardiac arrests in PICU.

Effect of vibration therapy on physical function in critically ill adults (VTICIA trial): protocol for a single-blinded randomised controlled trial

INTRODUCTION

Vibration therapy has been used as an additional approach in passive rehabilitation. Recently, it has been demonstrated to be feasible and safe for critically ill patients, whose muscle weakness and intensive care unit (ICU)-acquired weakness are serious problems. However, the effectiveness of vibration therapy in this population is unclear.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

This study will enrol 188 adult critically ill patients who require further ICU stay after they can achieve sitting at the edge of the bed or wheelchair. The sample size calculation is based on a 15% improvement of Functional Status Score for the ICU. They will be randomised to vibration therapy coupled with protocolised mobilisation or to protocolised mobilisation alone; outcomes will be compared between the two groups. Therapy will be administered using a low-frequency vibration device (5.6-13 Hz) for 15 min/day from when the patient first achieves a sitting position and onward until discharge from the ICU. Outcome assessments will be blinded to the intervention. Primary outcome will be measured using the Functional Status Score for the ICU during discharge. Secondary outcomes will be identified as follows: delirium, Medical Research Council Score, ICU-acquired weakness, the change of biceps brachii and rectus femoris muscle mass measured by ultrasound, ICU mobility scale and ventilator-free and ICU-free days (number of free days during 28 days after admission). For safety assessment, vital signs will be monitored during the intervention.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

This study has been approved by the Clinical Research Ethics Committee of Tokushima University Hospital. Results will be disseminated through publication in a peer-reviewed journal and presented at conferences.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

UMIN000039616.

Development and validation of the predictive risk of death model for adult patients admitted to intensive care units in Japan: an approach to improve the accuracy of healthcare quality measures

BACKGROUND

The Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) III-j model is widely used to predict mortality in Japanese intensive care units (ICUs). Although the model's discrimination is excellent, its calibration is poor. APACHE III-j overestimates the risk of death, making its evaluation of healthcare quality inaccurate. This study aimed to improve the calibration of the model and develop a Japan Risk of Death (JROD) model for benchmarking purposes.

METHODS

A retrospective analysis was conducted using a national clinical registry of ICU patients in Japan. Adult patients admitted to an ICU between April 1, 2018, and March 31, 2019, were included. The APACHE III-j model was recalibrated with the following models: Model 1, predicting mortality with an offset variable for the linear predictor of the APACHE III-j model using a generalized linear model; model 2, predicting mortality with the linear predictor of the APACHE III-j model using a generalized linear model; and model 3, predicting mortality with the linear predictor of the APACHE III-j model using a hierarchical generalized additive model. Model performance was assessed with the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC), the Brier score, and the modified Hosmer-Lemeshow test. To confirm model applicability to evaluating quality of care, funnel plots of the standardized mortality ratio and exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) charts for mortality were drawn.

RESULTS

In total, 33,557 patients from 44 ICUs were included in the study population. ICU mortality was 3.8%, and hospital mortality was 8.1%. The AUROC, Brier score, and modified Hosmer-Lemeshow p value of the original model and models 1, 2, and 3 were 0.915, 0.062, and < .001; 0.915, 0.047, and < .001; 0.915, 0.047, and .002; and 0.917, 0.047, and .84, respectively. Except for model 3, the funnel plots showed overdispersion. The validity of the EWMA charts for the recalibrated models was determined by visual inspection.

CONCLUSIONS

Model 3 showed good performance and can be adopted as the JROD model for monitoring quality of care in an ICU, although further investigation of the clinical validity of outlier detection is required. This update method may also be useful in other settings.

Machine learning-based prediction models for accidental hypothermia patients

Background

Accidental hypothermia is a critical condition with high risks of fatal arrhythmia, multiple organ failure, and mortality; however, there is no established model to predict the mortality. The present study aimed to develop and validate machine learning-based models for predicting in-hospital mortality using easily available data at hospital admission among the patients with accidental hypothermia.

Method

This study was secondary analysis of multi-center retrospective cohort study (J-point registry) including patients with accidental hypothermia. Adult patients with body temperature 35.0 °C or less at emergency department were included. Prediction models for in-hospital mortality using machine learning (lasso, random forest, and gradient boosting tree) were made in development cohort from six hospitals, and the predictive performance were assessed in validation cohort from other six hospitals. As a reference, we compared the SOFA score and 5A score.

Results

We included total 532 patients in the development cohort [N = 288, six hospitals, in-hospital mortality: 22.0% (64/288)], and the validation cohort [N = 244, six hospitals, in-hospital mortality 27.0% (66/244)]. The C-statistics [95% CI] of the models in validation cohorts were as follows: lasso 0.784 [0.717–0.851] , random forest 0.794[0.735–0.853], gradient boosting tree 0.780 [0.714–0.847], SOFA 0.787 [0.722–0.851], and 5A score 0.750[0.681–0.820]. The calibration plot showed that these models were well calibrated to observed in-hospital mortality. Decision curve analysis indicated that these models obtained clinical net-benefit.

Conclusion

This multi-center retrospective cohort study indicated that machine learning-based prediction models could accurately predict in-hospital mortality in validation cohort among the accidental hypothermia patients. These models might be able to support physicians and patient’s decision-making. However, the applicability to clinical settings, and the actual clinical utility is still unclear; thus, further prospective study is warranted to evaluate the clinical usefulness.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s40560-021-00525-z.

Development and validation of a procedure-based organ failure assessment model for patients in the intensive care unit: an administrative database study

Aim

To develop a procedure‐based organ failure assessment model for intensive care unit (ICU) patients and to examine the ability of this model to predict in‐hospital mortality, with reference to the Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score.

Methods

Using the Japanese nationwide Diagnosis Procedure Combination database, we identified patients aged ≥15 years who were admitted to the ICUs April 2018–March 2019. Since April 2018, Japanese health care providers have been required to input ICU patients' SOFA scores into this database. We extracted data on the following procedures on ICU admission: oxygen supplementation, invasive mechanical ventilation, blood transfusions, catecholamines, chest compression, extracorporeal membrane oxygenation, and renal replacement therapy. A procedure‐based organ failure assessment model (Model 1) for in‐hospital mortality was developed using therapeutic procedures for organ failure on the day of ICU admission in the derivation cohort. We also constructed a model using the SOFA score (Model 2). Discriminatory ability was assessed using area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) in the validation cohort, and the discriminatory abilities of the models were compared.

Results

In total, 69,019 patients were included. Overall in‐hospital mortality was 7.2%. The AUROCs for Model 1 (0.810) and Model 2 (0.817) in the validation cohort did not show a statistically significant difference (P = 0.20).

Conclusion

The models established using procedure‐based organ failure assessment showed no statistically significant differences from those using the SOFA score, suggesting that procedure records in administrative databases can be used for risk adjustment in clinical studies on ICU mortality.

Design and development of a web-based registry for Coronavirus (COVID-19) disease

Background: The 2019 coronavirus (COVID-19) is a highly contagious disease associated with a high morbidity and mortality worldwide. The accumulation of data through a prospective clinical registry enables public health authorities to make informed decisions based on real evidence obtained from surveillance of COVID-19. This registry is also fundamental to providing robust infrastructure for future research surveys. The purpose of this study was to design a registry and its minimum data set (MDS), as a valid and reliable data source for reporting and benchmarking COVID-19. Methods: This cross sectional and descriptive study provides a template for the required MDS to be included in COVID-19 registry. This was done by an extensive literature review and 2 round Delphi survey to validate the content, which resulted in a web-based registry created by Visual Studio 2019 and a database designed by Structured Query Language (SQL). Results: The MDS of COVID-19 registry was categorized into the administrative part with 3 sections, including 30 data elements, and the clinical part with 4 sections, including 26 data elements. Furthermore, a web-based registry with modular and layered architecture was designed based on final data classes and elements. Conclusion: To the best of our knowledge, COVID-19 registry is the first designed instrument from information management perspectives in Iran and can become a homogenous and reliable infrastructure for collecting data on COVID-19. We hope this approach will facilitate epidemiological surveys and support policymakers to better plan for monitoring patients with COVID-19.