Surrogate endpoints for overall survival in chemotherapy and radiotherapy trials in operable and locally advanced lung cancer: a re-analysis of meta-analyses of individual patients' data

Surrogacy of Recurrence-free Survival for Overall Survival as an Endpoint of Clinical Trials of Perioperative Adjuvant Therapy in Hepatobiliary-pancreatic Cancers: A Retrospective Study and Meta-analysis

OBJECTIVE

To assess the correlation between recurrence-free survival (RFS) and overall survival (OS) in the hepatobiliary-pancreatic (HBP) surgical setting to validate RFS as a surrogate endpoint.

BACKGROUND

Reliable surrogate endpoints for OS are still limited in the field of HBP surgery.

METHODS

We analyzed patients who underwent curative resection for HBP disease [986 patients with pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC), 1168 with biliary tract cancer (BTC), 1043 with hepatocellular carcinoma, and 1071 with colorectal liver metastasis] from September 2002 to June 2022. We also conducted meta-analyses of randomized controlled trials of neoadjuvant or adjuvant therapy to validate the surrogacy in PDAC and BTC.

RESULTS

Correlation coefficients between RFS and OS were low for hepatocellular carcinoma ( p = 0.67) and colorectal liver metastasis ( p = 0.53) but strong for PDAC ( p = 0.80) and BTC ( p = 0.75). In a landmark analysis, the concordance rates between survival or death at 5 years postoperatively and the presence or absence of recurrence at each time point (1, 2, 3, and 4 years) were 50%, 70%, 74%, and 77% for PDAC and 54%, 67%, 73%, and 78% for BTC, respectively, both increasing and reaching a plateau at 3 years. In a meta-analysis, the correlation coefficients for the RFS hazard ratio and OS hazard ratio in PDAC and BTC were p = 0.88 ( P < 0.001) and p = 0.87 ( P < 0.001), respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Three-year RFS can be a reliable surrogate endpoint for OS in clinical trials of neoadjuvant or adjuvant therapy for PDAC and BTC.

Recurrence-Free Survival in Patients With Surgically Resected Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer: A Systematic Literature Review and Meta-Analysis

BACKGROUND

Standard treatment for early-stage or locoregionally advanced non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) includes surgical resection. Recurrence after surgery is commonly reported, but a summary estimate for postsurgical recurrence-free survival (RFS) in patients with NSCLC is lacking.

RESEARCH QUESTION

What is the RFS after surgery in patients with stage I-III NSCLC at different time points, and what factors are associated with RFS?

STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS

A systematic search was performed in MEDLINE, EMBASE, and Cochrane databases between January 2011 and June 2021. The primary outcome was RFS at 1, 2, 3, and 5 years postresection. Single-arm, random-effects meta-analyses were done to calculate effect estimates and 95% CIs. Analyses were stratified by stage/substage as per the AJCC Cancer Staging Manual, and RFS was estimated (1) after pooling studies, using seventh or eighth edition staging criteria; and (2) among studies using only the eighth edition. Meta-regressions were performed to assess associations between RFS and patient demographic/clinical characteristics of interest.

RESULTS

Data from 471 studies comprising 1,060 surgical study arms were extracted. RFS estimates from 60,695 patients staged with the seventh or eighth edition were analyzed. RFS ranged from 96% at 1 year postresection to 82% at 5 years for stage I, and from 68% at 1 year to 34% at 5 years for stage III. Estimates for patients staged using only eighth edition criteria were slightly higher. Older age, higher percentage of male patients, advancing stage, larger tumor size, and geographic region (North America/Europe vs Asia) were significantly associated with worse RFS.

INTERPRETATION

This study presents a comprehensive assessment of reported RFS from published clinical literature, offering estimates at multiple postsurgical time points and by geographic region. Findings can inform treatment decisions, clinical trial design, and future research to improve outcomes among patients with NSCLC.

Composite event-free-survival as an endpoint in oncology drug evaluation: Review and guidance perspectives from the Haute Autorité de Santé (HAS)

BACKGROUND

The use of right-censored composite endpoints, such as progression-free survival, has been questioned in haemato-oncology trials due to potential bias in estimated treatment effect. This may impact the accuracy of health technology evaluations. We hypothesized that there is heterogeneity and potential sources of bias in the reporting of composite endpoints to health technology assessment (HTA) bodies.

METHODS

We reviewed the submissions for reimbursement of oncology drugs in 2021 and 2022 that used a composite endpoint in the pivotal trial, after appraisal by the French HTA body. The retrieved information included the clinical study report, protocol, and statistical analysis plan submitted by the industry. All events of the composite endpoint and all causes of censored observations were measured. The design characteristics and treatment effect estimates were recorded.

FINDINGS

Seventy-six submissions were selected, including seven without a right-censored endpoint and four evaluating associations, resulting in 65 analysed records: 17 for haematological and 48 for solid tumours. Out these 65 submissions, 47 (72·3%) used a randomized controlled design, and 18 (27·7%) a non-comparative design. The most frequently used composite endpoint was progression-free survival, used in 54 (83·1%) of the submissions. Censoring was possibly informative in 51 (92·7%) cases, mostly due to the onset of new treatment (44/51, 86·3%) and/or discontinuation of follow-up (33/51, 64·7%). In contrast, 38 (58·5%) trials reported a quantification of censored observations, with only 12/51 (23·5%) quantifying the informative ones. The estimated treatment effect on the composite outcome increased with the amount of censoring, suggesting a higher benefit of the drug, but remained below that on survival with poor evidence of surrogacy (R-squared=0·23).

INTERPRETATION

Clinical study reports should be improved in terms of reporting censoring, while stakeholders should be aware of this potential source of bias. At a minimum, sensitivity analysis that ignores intercurrent events should be requested.

Recurrence-free survival as a surrogate endpoint for overall survival after neoadjuvant chemotherapy and surgery for oesophageal squamous cell carcinoma

BACKGROUND

Overall survival is considered as one of the most important endpoints of treatment efficacy but often requires long follow-up. This study aimed to determine the validity of recurrence-free survival as a surrogate endpoint for overall survival in patients with surgically resectable advanced oesophageal squamous cell carcinoma (OSCC).

METHODS

Patients with OSCC who received neoadjuvant cisplatin and 5-fluorouracil, or docetaxel, cisplatin and 5-fluorouracil, at 58 Japanese oesophageal centres certified by the Japan Esophageal Society were reviewed retrospectively. The correlation between recurrence-free and overall survival was assessed using Kendall's τ.

RESULTS

The study included 3154 patients. The 5-year overall and recurrence-free survival rates were 56.6 and 47.7% respectively. The primary analysis revealed a strong correlation between recurrence-free and overall survival (Kendall's τ 0.797, 95% c.i. 0.782 to 0.812) at the individual level. Subgroup analysis showed a positive relationship between a more favourable pathological response to neoadjuvant chemotherapy and a higher τ value. In the meta-regression model, the adjusted R2 value at the institutional level was 100 (95% c.i. 40.2 to 100)%. The surrogate threshold effect was 0.703.

CONCLUSION

There was a strong correlation between recurrence-free and overall survival in patients with surgically resectable OSCC who underwent neoadjuvant chemotherapy, and this was more pronounced in patients with a better response to neoadjuvant chemotherapy.

Evaluation of progression-free survival as a surrogate endpoint for overall survival in locally advanced or metastatic differentiated thyroid cancer: a systematic review

PURPOSE

Patients with locally advanced or metastatic differentiated thyroid cancer (DTC) have a variable prognosis, and the development of more effective treatment strategies is an important research topic. Overall survival (OS) is the gold standard for research endpoints in randomized controlled trials (RCTs), but observing an OS benefit requires the inclusion of a large number of patients and a long follow-up period. In this study, we aimed to investigate whether progression-free survival (PFS) could be used as a surrogate endpoint for OS in locally advanced or metastatic DTC clinical trials.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We conducted a search in the PubMed and EMBASE databases to include all RCTs of locally advanced or metastatic DTC and extracted survival data. A weighted linear regression analysis was performed to explore the correlation between PFS benefit and OS benefit by taking the logarithm of the hazard ratios (HRs) of PFS and OS for each trial with a base of 10 and weighted by the number of patients in each RCT.

RESULTS

Seven RCTs, including 1410 patients, were included. At the trial level, PFS benefit was weakly correlated with OS benefit (R2 = 0.210, 95% CI: 0.000-0.811) and did not meet the statistical criteria for the surrogate endpoint.

CONCLUSION

This study does not support PFS as a surrogate endpoint for OS in locally advanced or metastatic DTC clinical trials.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

PROSPERO Identifier: CRD42022334898.

Validity of Using Pathological Response as a Surrogate for Overall Survival in Neoadjuvant Studies for Esophageal Cancer: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Pathological response is a critical factor in predicting long-term survival of patients with esophageal cancer after preoperative therapy. However, the validity of using pathological response as a surrogate for overall survival (OS) for esophageal cancer has not yet been established. In this study, a literature-based meta-analysis was conducted to evaluate pathological response as a proxy endpoint for survival in esophageal cancer.

METHODS

Three databases were systematically searched to identify relevant studies investigating neoadjuvant treatment for esophageal cancer. The correlation between pathological complete response (pCR) and OS were assessed using a weighted multiple regression analysis at the trial level, and the coefficient of determination (R2) was calculated. The research design and histological subtypes were considered in the performance of subgroup analysis.

RESULTS

In this meta-analysis, a total of 40 trials, comprising 43 comparisons and 55,344 patients were qualified. The surrogacy between pCR and OS was moderate (R2 = 0.238 in direct comparison, R2 = 0.500 for pCR reciprocals, R2 = 0.541 in log settings). pCR could not serve as an ideal surrogate endpoint in randomized controlled trials (RCTs) (R2 = 0.511 in direct comparison, R2 = 0.460 for pCR reciprocals, R2 = 0.523 in log settings). A strong correlation was observed in studies comparing neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy and neoadjuvant chemotherapy (R2 = 0.595 in direct comparison, R2 = 0.840 for pCR reciprocals, R2 = 0.800 in log settings).

CONCLUSIONS

A lack of surrogacy of pathological response for long-term survival at trial level is established in this study. Hence, caution should be exercised when using pCR as the primary endpoint in neoadjuvant studies for esophageal cancer.

Body Composition and Radiomics From 18 F-FDG PET/CT Together Help Predict Prognosis for Patients With Stage IV Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer

PURPOSE

To determine whether integration of data on body composition and radiomic features obtained using baseline 18 F-FDG positron emission tomography/computed tomography (PET/CT) images can be used to predict the prognosis of patients with stage IV non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC).

METHODS

A total of 107 patients with stage IV NSCLC were retrospectively enrolled in this study. We used the 3D Slicer (The National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, Maryland) software to extract the features of PET and CT images. Body composition measurements were taken at the L3 level using the Fiji (Curtis Rueden, Laboratory for Optical and Computational Instrumentation, University of Wisconsin, Madison) software. Independent prognostic factors were defined by performing univariate and multivariate analyses for clinical factors, body composition features, and metabolic parameters. Data on body composition and radiomic features were used to build body composition, radiomics, and integrated (combination of body composition and radiomic features) nomograms. The models were evaluated to determine their prognostic prediction capabilities, calibration, discriminatory abilities, and clinical applicability.

RESULTS

Eight radiomic features relevant to progression-free survival (PFS) were selected. Multivariate analysis showed that the visceral fat area/subcutaneous fat area ratio independently predicted PFS ( P = 0.040). Using the data for body composition, radiomic features, and integrated features, nomograms were established for the training (areas under the curve = 0.647, 0.736, and 0.803, respectively) and the validation sets (areas under the receiver operating characteristic = 0.625, 0.723, and 0.866, respectively); the integrated model showed better prediction ability than that of the other 2 models. The calibration curves revealed that the integrated nomogram exhibited a better agreement between the estimation and the actual observation in terms of prediction of the probability of PFS than that of the other 2 models. Decision curve analysis revealed that the integrated nomogram was superior to the body composition and radiomics nomograms for predicting clinical benefit.

CONCLUSION

Integration of data on body composition and PET/CT radiomic features can help in prediction of outcomes in patients with stage IV NSCLC.

Osimertinib as first-line treatment for recurrent lung cancer patients with EGFR mutation

Background

Although osimertinib was approved as adjuvant therapy for lung cancer patients with EGFR mutation in various countries, there is still some ongoing debate as osimertinib has been approved based on disease-free survival (DFS) rather than overall survival (OS). We curated a case series in which we documented patterns of recurrence and efficacy and safety of osimertinib after recurrence.

Methods

Patients who received osimertinib as first-line treatment for postoperative recurrence between September 2018 and January 2023 were included. Clinicopathological factors, duration of osimertinib treatment (DoT), and adverse events were collected and analyzed.

Results

Twenty patients received osimertinib [male, n=6; median age, 75 years (range, 55-85 years)]. The EGFR mutation type was L858R in 11 patients and exon 19 deletion in eight patients. The performance status (PS) was 0 or 1 in all but two patients, who had symptomatic brain metastasis and were therefore PS 3. The first site of postoperative recurrence was locoregional in five patients and distant in 15 patients, including seven with brain metastasis. As of February 2023, 10 patients were still on osimertinib, including three with brain metastasis. Patients with brain metastasis or poor PS had a considerably shorter DoT than their counterparts. Three patients with symptomatic brain metastasis or leptomeningeal metastasis initially responded to osimertinib, but all died of disease progression. Five patients discontinued osimertinib due to serious adverse effects (pneumonitis, drug eruption, and heart failure).

Conclusions

Although osimertinib exerts great disease control, even in patients with brain metastasis or poor PS, their presence was associated with a poor prognosis, even with osimertinib treatment. Therefore, adjuvant osimertinib is recommended unless contraindicated.

Adjuvant Targeted Therapy in Solid Cancers: Pioneers and New Glories

Targeted therapy (TT) has revolutionized cancer treatment, successfully applied in various settings. Adjuvant TT in resected early-stage gastrointestinal stromal tumors (GIST), melanoma, non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC), and breast cancer has led to practice-changing achievements. In particular, standard treatments include BRAF inhibitors for melanoma, osimertinib for NSCLC, hormone therapy or HER2 TT for breast cancer, and imatinib for GIST. Despite the undeniable benefit derived from adjuvant TT, the optimal duration of TT and the appropriate managing of the relapse remain open questions. Furthermore, neoadjuvant TT is emerging as valuable, particularly in breast cancer, and ongoing studies evaluate TT in the perioperative setting for early-stage NSCLC. In this review, we aim to collect and describe the large amount of data available in the literature about adjuvant TT across different histologies, focusing on epidemiology, major advances, and future directions.

Evaluating relapse-free survival as an endpoint for overall survival in adjuvant immunotherapy trials

BACKGROUND

Relapse-free survival (RFS) has been considered a primary endpoint to assess the effects of immunotherapy in the adjuvant setting among patients with early-stage disease. However, it is not clear whether RFS is a valid surrogate endpoint for overall survival (OS) in this clinical context.

METHODS

Phase II or III clinical trials of adjuvant immunotherapy that reported hazard ratios on OS and RFS were identified. We used a weighted regression analysis at the arm and trial levels to assess the efficacy of RFS as a surrogate for OS, quantified by the weighted coefficient of determination (R2). Strong correlations (R2 ≥ 0.7) at the arm and trial levels indicated valid surrogacy. The surrogate threshold effect was also evaluated.

RESULTS

Fifteen high-quality randomized clinical trials involving 13 715 patients were included. At the arm level, moderate and strong associations were observed between RFS2-year and OS3-year (R2 = 0.58, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.25 to 0.92) and RFS3-year and OS5-year (R2 = 0.72, 95% CI = 0.38 to 1.00), respectively. At the trial level, a moderate association was observed between effect of treatment on RFS and OS (R2 = 0.63, 95% CI = 0.33 to 0.94). The surrogate threshold effect for RFS was 0.86. Consistent results were confirmed in several sensitivity analyses based on different trial phases, experimental arms, cancer types, and treatment strategies.

CONCLUSIONS

Our meta-analysis failed to find a clinically strong association between RFS and OS in randomized clinical trials of adjuvant immunotherapy. Our findings challenge the use of RFS as the primary efficacy endpoint and suggest the use of OS in this clinical context.

Overall Survival with Osimertinib in Resected EGFR-Mutated NSCLC

BACKGROUND

Among patients with resected, epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR)-mutated, stage IB to IIIA non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC), adjuvant osimertinib therapy, with or without previous adjuvant chemotherapy, resulted in significantly longer disease-free survival than placebo in the ADAURA trial. We report the results of the planned final analysis of overall survival.

METHODS

In this phase 3, double-blind trial, we randomly assigned eligible patients in a 1:1 ratio to receive osimertinib (80 mg once daily) or placebo until disease recurrence was observed, the trial regimen was completed (3 years), or a discontinuation criterion was met. The primary end point was investigator-assessed disease-free survival among patients with stage II to IIIA disease. Secondary end points included disease-free survival among patients with stage IB to IIIA disease, overall survival, and safety.

RESULTS

Of 682 patients who underwent randomization, 339 received osimertinib and 343 received placebo. Among patients with stage II to IIIA disease, the 5-year overall survival was 85% in the osimertinib group and 73% in the placebo group (overall hazard ratio for death, 0.49; 95.03% confidence interval [CI], 0.33 to 0.73; P<0.001). In the overall population (patients with stage IB to IIIA disease), the 5-year overall survival was 88% in the osimertinib group and 78% in the placebo group (overall hazard ratio for death, 0.49; 95.03% CI, 0.34 to 0.70; P<0.001). One new serious adverse event, pneumonia related to coronavirus disease 2019, was reported after the previously published data-cutoff date (the event was not considered by the investigator to be related to the trial regimen, and the patient fully recovered). Adjuvant osimertinib had a safety profile consistent with that in the primary analysis.

CONCLUSIONS

Adjuvant osimertinib provided a significant overall survival benefit among patients with completely resected, EGFR-mutated, stage IB to IIIA NSCLC. (Funded by AstraZeneca; ADAURA ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT02511106.).

Correlation between recurrence-free survival and overall survival after upfront surgery for resected colorectal liver metastases

BACKGROUND

The role of recurrence-free survival (RFS) as a valid surrogate endpoint for overall survival (OS) in patients who underwent upfront surgery for colorectal liver metastases remains uncertain. The aim of the study was to compare the two survival measures in a nationwide cohort of upfront resected colorectal liver metastasis.

METHODS

Data from patients with colorectal liver metastases without extrahepatic metastases who underwent curative surgery for liver metastases were retrieved from the Japanese nationwide database (data collection 2005-2007 and 2013-2014). RFS, OS, and survival after recurrence were estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method. The correlation (ρ) between RFS and OS was assessed using the rank correlation method combined with iterative multiple imputation, to account for censoring. As a secondary analysis, the correlation was evaluated according to adjuvant chemotherapy regimen. In sensitivity analysis, the pairwise correlation between RFS and OS was calculated.

RESULTS

A total of 2385 patients with colorectal liver metastases were included. In the primary analysis, there was a moderately strong correlation between RFS and OS (ρ = 0.73, 95 per cent c.i. 0.70 to 0.76). The strength of the correlation was similar regardless of the adjuvant treatment regimen (oxaliplatin plus 5-fluorouracil: ρ = 0.72, 0.67 to 0.77; 5-fluorouracil alone: ρ = 0.72, 0.66 to 0.76; observation: ρ = 0.74, 0.69 to 0.78). The mean(s.d.) pairwise correlation coefficient between 3-year RFS and 5-year OS was 0.87(0.06).

CONCLUSION

In surgically treated patients with colorectal liver metastases, there was a moderately strong correlation between RFS and OS, which was unaffected by the treatment regimen. Further validation using a trial-level analysis is required.

Re-Evaluation of Pathologic Complete Response as a Surrogate for Event-Free and Overall Survival in Human Epidermal Growth Factor Receptor 2-Positive, Early Breast Cancer Treated With Neoadjuvant Therapy Including Anti-Human Epidermal Growth Factor Receptor 2 Therapy

PURPOSE

Pathologic complete response (pCR) has prognostic importance and is frequently used as a primary end point, but doubts remain about its validity as a surrogate for event-free survival (EFS) and overall survival (OS) in human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2)-positive, early breast cancer.

METHODS

We obtained individual-patient data from randomized trials of neoadjuvant anti-HER2 therapy that enrolled at least 100 patients, had data for pCR, EFS, and OS, and a median follow-up of at least 3 years. We quantified the patient-level association between pCR (defined as ypT0/Tis ypN0) and both EFS and OS using odds ratios (ORs, with ORs >1.00 indicating a benefit from achieving a pCR). We quantified the trial-level association between treatment effects on pCR and on EFS and OS using R2 (with values above 0.75 considered as indicating strong associations).

RESULTS

Eleven of 15 eligible trials had data for analysis (3,980 patients, with a median follow-up of 62 months). Considering all trials, we found strong patient-level associations, with ORs of 2.64 (95% CI, 2.20 to 3.07) for EFS and 3.15 (95% CI, 2.38 to 3.91) for OS; however, trial-level associations were weak, with an unadjusted R2 of 0.23 (95% CI, 0 to 0.66) for EFS and 0.02 (95% CI, 0 to 0.17) for OS. We found qualitatively similar results when grouping trials according to different clinical questions, when analyzing only patients with hormone receptor-negative disease, and when using a more stringent definition of pCR (ypT0 ypN0).

CONCLUSION

Although pCR may be useful for patient management, it cannot be considered as a surrogate for EFS or OS in neoadjuvant trials of HER2-positive, operable breast cancer.

Adjuvant and neoadjuvant use of immune checkpoint inhibitors in NSCLC

The neoadjuvant and adjuvant use of immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs) in early stage non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) is increasing, with pembrolizumab approved as adjuvant therapy following surgical resection and chemotherapy by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration in early 2023. However, clinical trials of these agents have several key limitations including the use of surrogate endpoints that have not been validated and a lack of demonstrated survival benefit. Further data supporting the benefits of ICIs in this setting are necessary to justify their use at the cost of greater financial burdens, time, and adverse effects.

Overall and complete response rates as potential surrogates for overall survival in relapsed/refractory multiple myeloma

Aim: The correlation between response and survival has not been well-studied in relapsed or refractory multiple myeloma (RRMM). Materials & methods: A systematic literature review of Medline, Embase and Cochrane databases (2010-06/2020) and relevant congresses (2018-2020) was performed to identify randomized clinical trials in RRMM reporting median overall survival (mOS), progression-free survival and response endpoints. The relationship between mOS and response endpoints was analyzed using Pearson's product-moment correlation. Results: A total of 81 records for 65 original studies, representing 12,827 patients were included. The correlation was moderate for mOS with overall response rate (Pearson r = 0.79), very good partial response (r = 0.73) and duration of response (r = 0.78); all were statistically significant. In linear regression models, estimated mOS gain was 0.48, 0.47 and 1.94 months per percentage point of overall response rate, very good partial response and complete response, respectively (all p < 0.001). Significance was maintained after adjustment for age, relapsed versus refractory multiple myeloma and study year. The analysis was limited by small sample sizes and inconsistent reporting of study-level covariates. Conclusion: These findings support short-term response-based endpoints as surrogates to survival in RRMM.

Assessment of Surrogate End Point Trends in Clinical Trials to Approve Oncology Drugs From 2001 to 2020 in Japan

Importance

A surrogate end point (SEP) is an end point used in clinical trials as an alternative for measuring the true clinical benefit. The use of SEPs in trials shortens their duration.

Objectives

To investigate the use of SEPs in clinical trials to support the approval of anticancer drugs and to determine whether confirmatory studies that use overall survival (OS) as an end point are being conducted in Japan.

Design, Setting, and Participants

In this cross-sectional study, drug approvals and background information were obtained from publicly available information, such as the Pharmaceuticals and Medical Devices Agency website, for anticancer drugs approved in Japan from January 2001 to December 2020. Data analysis was performed from September 2021 to March 2022.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Characteristics of approved oncology drugs in Japan, end points for pivotal clinical trials, and outcomes of confirmatory trials using OS as an end point following drug approval.

Results

There were 299 anticancer drugs approved in Japan during the study period. Of these, 142 (47.5%) were molecular-targeted drugs, the most common of which targeted non-small cell lung cancer. There were 111 (37.1%) anticancer drugs with orphan designation. From 2001 to 2005, OS was used as an end point in 1 approval (3.6%); however, from 2006 to 2020, OS was used in 86 approvals (31.7%). Of the 212 anticancer drugs approved on the basis of SEPs, confirmatory studies with OS as the end point were conducted for only 37 approvals (17.5%); for the remaining 175 approvals, studies are under way for 35 approvals (16.5%), were waivered for 75 approvals (35.4%), and were not conducted for 65 approvals (30.7%). Furthermore, in 20 drug approvals (9.4%), the conducted confirmatory studies were not effective in determining the OS, but the drugs were approved following re-examination.

Conclusions and Relevance

The findings of this study suggest that starting from 2005, the use of OS as an end point has increased in studies supporting the approval of anticancer drugs in Japan. However, even after 2005, approximately two-thirds of these approvals were SEP based. Postmarketing surveillance studies of the true end points are necessary to validate the use of SEPs.

Secondary prevention and treatment innovation of early stage non-small cell lung cancer: Impact on diagnostic-therapeutic pathway from a multidisciplinary perspective

Lung cancer (LC) is the leading cause of cancer-related death worldwide, mostly because the lack of a screening program so far. Although smoking cessation has a central role in LC primary prevention, several trials on LC screening through low-dose computed tomography (LDCT) in a high risk population showed a significant reduction of LC related mortality. Most trials showed heterogeneity in terms of selection criteria, comparator arm, detection nodule method, timing and intervals of screening and duration of the follow-up. LC screening programs currently active in Europe as well as around the world will lead to a higher number of early-stage Non Small Cell Lung Cancer (NSCLC) at the diagnosis. Innovative drugs have been recently transposed from the metastatic to the perioperative setting, leading to improvements in terms of resection rates and pathological responses after induction chemoimmunotherapy, and disease free survival with targeted agents and immune checkpoint inhibitors. The present review summarizes available evidence about LC screening, highlighting potential pitfalls and benefits and underlining the impact on the diagnostic therapeutic pathway of NSCLC from a multidisciplinary perspective. Future perspectives in terms of circulating biomarkers under evaluation for patients' risk stratification as well as a focus on recent clinical trials results and ongoing studies in the perioperative setting will be also presented.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of adjuvant atezolizumab in stage II-IIIA non-small cell lung cancer expressing ≥50% PD-L1: A United Kingdom health care perspective

OBJECTIVES

Atezolizumab monotherapy has marketing authorisation by the Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency as adjuvant treatment following complete resection for adults with stage II-IIIA non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) whose tumours have PD-L1 expression on ≥ 50% of tumour cells and whose disease has not progressed following adjuvant platinum-based chemotherapy. This study evaluated the cost-effectiveness of atezolizumab vs best supportive care (BSC) in the licensed patient population from a UK perspective.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Patient characteristics and clinical inputs were derived from the global, randomised, open-label, phaseIII IMpower010 trial. A Markov model with the following health states was developed: disease-free survival (DFS), locoregional recurrence, first-line metastatic recurrence, second-line metastatic recurrence, and death (all partitioned based on receipt of treatment, excluding death). The base case model used a lifetime time horizon (40 years) and 3.5% discounting annually after the first year. DFS from IMpower010 was analysed with parametric survival models to extrapolate outcomes for time points beyond trial follow-up. The models were adjusted to avoid overestimating results for patients with recurrences in the longer term. Grade ≥ 3 treatment-related adverse events with incidences ≥ 2% were included. Health state utility values were derived from the literature and past NICE appraisals. Sensitivity and scenario analyses assessed uncertainty around assumptions and parameter estimates.

RESULTS

In the base case analysis, atezolizumab therapy resulted in an expected gain of 1.87 quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) corresponding to an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of £20,392/QALY for atezolizumab vs BSC, demonstrating cost-effectiveness. Results were most influenced by discount effects and utility in the on-treatment DFS state. Scenario analyses were consistent with the base case results.

CONCLUSION

Atezolizumab after adjuvant chemotherapy is cost-effective for adults with NSCLC in the UK.

Primary endpoints to assess the efficacy of novel therapeutic approaches in epidermal growth factor receptor-mutated, surgically resectable non-small cell lung cancer: A review

While the discovery of oncogenic driver mutations has personalized the metastatic non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) treatment landscape with effective targeted therapies, implementation of new treatments in resectable NSCLC has been limited due to the long follow-up needed for overall survival (OS). Until recently, treatment for patients with early-stage resectable NSCLC has been limited to perioperative chemotherapy, which provides modest benefits. However, the regulatory acceptance of two surrogate endpoints for OS has allowed recent approval of both adjuvant osimertinib and atezolizumab, providing patients with new treatment options to improve outcomes. In phase 3 oncology trials, OS has historically been viewed as the gold-standard efficacy measure, but disease-free survival and event-free survival (EFS) are now validated surrogate endpoints for OS in clinical trials and should be considered when mature OS data is unavailable. Another potential surrogate endpoint in the adjuvant NSCLC setting is circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA)-based minimal residual disease (MRD), although prospective validation is needed. For neoadjuvant targeted therapies, EFS, major pathologic response and ctDNA-based MRD are potential surrogate endpoints. To fully translate the success of the personalized treatment advances in the metastatic setting to earlier-stage disease, prospective validation studies of these potential surrogate endpoints that can accelerate the evaluation of drug efficacy are needed. A collaborative effort is also needed from all clinical and regulatory parties to collate surrogate endpoint data for large-scale validation. In this review we discuss the trends in surrogate endpoints used in oncology trials, with a focus on considerations for selecting appropriate primary endpoints in early-stage resectable EGFR-mutant NSCLC, an area of unmet need for novel treatment options.

Neoadjuvant PD-1 Blockade in Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer: Current perspectives and Moving Forward

Perioperative therapy for non-small cell lung cancer has been studied extensively in a bid to improve overall survival, as approximately half of the patients with surgically resectable tumors at the time of diagnosis relapse. In recent years, immune checkpoint inhibitor therapies, such as the anti-programmed death 1/programmed death-ligand 1 (PD-1/PD-L1) blockade, have contributed to achieving an improved overall survival of patients with advanced stage lung cancer. Thus, the development of this treatment strategy has considerable potential to precipitate a breakthrough in cancer immunotherapy. PD-1/PD-L1 blockade has several potential immunological benefits when used as a neoadjuvant therapy. However, there are concerns associated with this neoadjuvant therapy. Many studies have reported its efficacy, but there is limited evidence regarding the long-term survival of patients. Similarly, it is unclear whether existing biomarkers are adequate for monitoring the prognosis of patients, or if new biomarkers are required. In this article, we present recent reports on neoadjuvant PD-1/PD-L1 blockade therapy and discuss its future challenges.

Identification on surrogating overall survival with progression-free survival of first-line immunochemotherapy in advanced esophageal squamous cell carcinoma-an exploration of surrogate endpoint

BACKGROUND

Overall survival (OS) is the gold standard to assess novel therapeutics to treat cancer. However, to identify early efficacy and speed up drug approval, trials have used progression-free survival (PFS) as a surrogate endpoint (SE). Herein, we aimed to examine if PFS could function as an OS surrogate in advanced Esophageal Squamous Cell Carcinoma (ESCC) treated with first-line immunochemotherapy.

METHODS

Two hundred ninety-two advanced ESCC patients treated using inhibitors of PD-1/PD-L1 + chemotherapy or chemotherapy alone were collected. In addition, six phase III randomized clinical trials were eligible for inclusion. Bayesian normal-induced-copula-estimation model in retrospective patient data and regression analysis in the published trial data were used to determine the PFS-OS correlation.

RESULTS

PFS correlated moderately with OS in the retrospective cohort (Kendall's Tau = 0.684, τ = 0.436). In trial-level, treatments effects for PFS correlated weakly with those for OS in intention-to-treat population (R² = 0.436, adj.R² = 0.249, P > 0.05) and in PD-L1-enriched population (R² = 0.072). In arm-level, median PFS also correlated weakly with median OS. Moreover, analysis of the retrospective cohort demonstrated that the annual death risk after progression in the continued immunotherapy group was considerably lower than that in the discontinued group.

CONCLUSION

In trials of anti-PD-1 agents to treat advanced ESCC, the current results provide only weak support for PFS as an OS surrogate; OS cannot be substituted completely by PFS in these cases. The results also suggest that qualified patients with advanced ESCC might benefit from continuous immunotherapy beyond progression to achieve a decreased risk of death.

Adjuvant Osimertinib vs. Placebo in Completely Resected Stage IA2-IA3 EGFR-Mutated NSCLC: ADAURA2

INTRODUCTION

Osimertinib is a third-generation, irreversible, oral epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) tyrosine kinase inhibitor (TKI) that potently and selectively inhibits both EGFR-TKI sensitizing and EGFR T790M resistance mutations, with demonstrated efficacy in EGFR mutation-positive (EGFRm) non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC), including central nervous system (CNS) metastases. Here we present the rationale and study design for ADAURA2 (NCT05120349), which will evaluate adjuvant osimertinib vs. placebo in patients with stage IA2-IA3 EGFRm NSCLC, following complete tumor resection.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

ADAURA2 is a phase III, global, randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled study. Patients will be adults aged ≥18 years with resected primary nonsquamous NSCLC stage IA2 or IA3 and central confirmation of an EGFR exon 19 deletion or L858R mutation. Patients will be stratified by pathologic risk of disease recurrence (high vs. low), EGFR mutation type (exon 19 deletion vs. L858R) and race (Chinese Asian vs. non-Chinese Asian vs. non-Asian), and randomized 1:1 to receive osimertinib 80 mg once daily (QD) or placebo QD until disease recurrence, treatment discontinuation, or a maximum treatment duration of 3 years. The primary endpoint of this study is disease-free survival (DFS) in the high-risk stratum. Secondary endpoints include DFS in the overall population, overall survival, CNS DFS, and safety. Health-related quality of life and pharmacokinetics will also be evaluated.

RESULTS

Study enrolment began in February 2022 and interim results of the primary endpoint are expected in August 2027.

VEGF single nucleotide polymorphisms predict improved outcome in advanced non-small cell lung cancer patients treated with platinum-based chemotherapy

We aimed to investigate the prognostic role of genetic variants of VEGF in advanced NSCLC patients treated with platinum-based chemotherapy. A total of 196 patients with advanced NSCLC treated with first-line platinum-based chemotherapy were enrolled. We evaluated the relationship between VEGF polymorphisms and efficacy outcomes and chemotherapy toxicity. We found that rs699947, rs833061 and rs1005230 were in full linkage disequilibrium. Patients with CC genotype of rs833061 had a significant longer PFS than TT genotype (CC vs TT, HR = 1.67, 95%CI = 1.01-2.76, P = 0.043). Patients harbouring CC genotype had longer PFS compared with CT genotype (P < 0.001). Moreover, CC genotypes conferred a significantly increased PFS compared to CT and TT genotype in dominant model (CC vs CT + TT, HR = 1.95, 95%CI = 1.23-3.10, P = 0.005). Patients carrying TT genotype of rs833061 had improved both ORR (HR = 0.54, 95%CI = 0.30-0.98, P = 0.041) and DCR (HR = 0.37, 95%CI = 0.20-0.66, P = 0.001) than non-TT patients. Furthermore, no association was found between any rs833061 alleles and adverse events (P = 0.425), but patients carrying rs1570360 AA genotype were more likely to experience grade 3-4 toxicities (P = 0.004) (GG vs AA, HR = 3.16, 95%CI = 1.26-7.94, P = 0.015). In conclusion, the variant homozygote CC of rs833061 exhibited a better prognosis based on association analysis. The present study provides reference for the future study of platinum-based chemotherapy response and toxicity.

Survival outcome of upfront surgery for clinical single-station N2 non-small cell lung cancer

BACKGROUND

Pathological N2 (pN2) non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) is diverse; its treatment depends on the clinical N (cN) status. We aimed to determine the efficacy of upfront surgery for cN2pN2 NSCLC.

METHODS

The study included 43 cN2pN2 NSCLC patients who underwent upfront surgery at the Shizuoka Cancer Center between 2002 and 2017. Survival outcome, focusing on cN2 status, was retrospectively investigated. Mediastinal lymph nodes were pre-operatively evaluated using computed tomography and positron emission tomography. Surgical eligibility criteria included single-station cN2. N2 with N1 and skip N2 were defined as N2 with and without ipsilateral hilar lymph node metastasis, respectively. A platinum-doublet regimen was used for adjuvant chemotherapy. Survival curves were analysed using the Kaplan-Meier method. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed using the Cox proportional hazard regression model.

RESULTS

Clinical-skip N2 and cN2 with N1 cases included 22 and 21 patients, respectively. Twenty-three patients received adjuvant chemotherapy. The median follow-up duration was 73 months. Clinical-skip N2 had a significantly better 5-year recurrence-free survival (RFS) than cN2 with N1 (58.3 vs 28.6%, P = 0.038) and was an independent favorable RFS predictor. Recurrence within 18 months occurred in 71% of cN2 with N1 cases. Five-year overall survival and RFS rates in patients receiving adjuvant chemotherapy vs those without adjuvant chemotherapy were 82.2 vs 41.9% (P = 0.019) and 56.5 vs 28.0% (P = 0.049), respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Clinical-skip N2 had an excellent prognosis, and upfront surgery was acceptable. Conversely, upfront surgery followed by chemotherapy is not recommended for cN2 with N1 patients because of early recurrence.

Neoadjuvant immunotherapy in resectable non-small-cell lung cancer

The advent of immune checkpoint inhibition has pushed the treatment paradigm for resectable non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC) toward neoadjuvant therapy. A growing number of promising trials have examined the utility of neoadjuvant immunotherapy, both alone and in combination with other modalities such as radiation therapy (RT) and chemotherapy. The phase II LCMC3 and NEOSTAR trials demonstrated a role for neoadjuvant immunotherapy in inducing meaningful pathologic responses, and another phase II trial established the feasibility of combining neoadjuvant durvalumab with RT. Significant interest in neoadjuvant chemoimmunotherapy resulted in the conduct of multiple successful phase II trials including the Columbia trial, NADIM, SAKK 16/14, and NADIM II. Across these trials, neoadjuvant chemoimmunotherapy led to high rates of pathologic response and improved surgical outcomes without compromising surgical timing or feasibility. CheckMate-816, which was a randomized phase III trial studying neoadjuvant nivolumab in addition to chemotherapy, definitively established a benefit for neoadjuvant chemoimmunotherapy compared to chemotherapy alone for resectable NSCLC. Despite the growing literature and success of these trials, several outstanding questions remain, including the relationship between pathologic response and patient survival, the role of biomarkers such as programmed death ligand 1 and circulating tumor DNA in determining patient selection and treatment course, and the utility of additional adjuvant therapies. Longer follow-up of CheckMate-816 and other ongoing phase III trials may help address these questions. Ultimately, the complexity of managing resectable NSCLC highlights the importance of a multidisciplinary approach to patient care.

Difference in failure patterns after stereotactic body radiotherapy for lung cancer according to clinical T stage based on 4D computed tomography

PURPOSE

Stereotactic body radiotherapy (SBRT) is a treatment option for early-stage lung cancer. We aimed to examine the differences in failure patterns after SBRT according to the clinical T stage.

METHODS

A total of 120 patients with early-stage lung cancer (T1-3N0M0) who underwent SBRT were analysed. The clinical stage in patients whose tumours were in contact with the chest wall was confirmed using four-dimensional computed tomography (4D-CT). Local failure, regional node metastasis, and distant metastasis were confirmed from clinical charts.

RESULTS

Median follow-up time was 27.5 months (range 7-122) after SBRT. Thirteen patients were restaged from clinical T2 with visceral pleural invasion to T3 with chest wall invasion using 4D-CT analysis. Thirty-seven patients developed recurrences. The median progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) were 38.1 and 53.8 months, respectively. The 3‑year PFS and OS rates were 50.7% and 60.3%, respectively. A significant difference was observed in PFS according to the clinical T stage (p = 0.001). No significant differences were observed in OS according to the clinical T stage (p = 0.213). The proportion of locoregional failures relative to distant metastasis decreased with progression from T1 to T3. The pleural dissemination rate was significantly higher in T3 tumours than in T1 and T2 tumours (p = 0.010).

CONCLUSION

Clinical T stage is associated with PFS after SBRT for lung cancer. There were differences in the failure patterns according to T stage. 4D-CT might provide significant information for assessing chest wall invasion associated with unfavourable PFS.

Adjuvant atezolizumab in Japanese patients with resected stage IB-IIIA non-small cell lung cancer (IMpower010)

The global phase 3 IMpower010 study evaluated adjuvant atezolizumab versus best supportive care (BSC) following platinum-based chemotherapy in patients with resected stage IB-IIIA non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). Here, we report a subgroup analysis in patients enrolled in Japan. Eligible patients had complete resection of histologically or cytologically confirmed stage IB (tumors ≥4 cm)-IIIA NSCLC. Upon completing 1-4 cycles of adjuvant cisplatin-based chemotherapy, patients were randomized 1:1 to receive atezolizumab (fixed dose of 1200 mg every 21 days; 16 cycles or 1 year) or BSC. The primary endpoint of the global IMpower010 study was investigator-assessed disease-free survival, tested hierarchically first in patients with stage II-IIIA NSCLC whose tumors expressed programmed death-ligand 1 (PD-L1) on ≥1% of tumor cells, then in all randomized patients with stage II-IIIA NSCLC, and finally in the intention-to-treat (ITT) population (stage IB-IIIA NSCLC). Safety was evaluated in all patients who received atezolizumab or BSC. The study comprised 149 enrolled patients in three populations: ITT (n = 117; atezolizumab, n = 59; BSC, n = 58), all-randomized stage II-IIIA (n = 113; atezolizumab, n = 56; BSC, n = 57), and PD-L1 tumor cells ≥1% stage II-IIIA (n = 74; atezolizumab, n = 41; BSC, n = 33). At the data cutoff date (January 21, 2021), a trend toward disease-free survival improvement with atezolizumab vs BSC was observed in the PD-L1 tumor cells ≥1% stage II-IIIA (unstratified hazard ratio [HR], 0.52; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.25-1.08), all-randomized stage II-IIIA (unstratified HR, 0.62; 95% CI, 0.35-1.11), and ITT (unstratified HR, 0.61; 95% CI, 0.34-1.10) populations. Atezolizumab-related grade 3/4 adverse events occurred in 16% of patients; no treatment-related grade 5 events occurred. Adjuvant atezolizumab showed disease-free survival improvement and a tolerable toxicity profile in Japanese patients in IMpower010, consistent with the global study results.

Adjuvant Immunotherapy in Patients with Early-Stage Non-small Cell Lung Cancer and Future Directions

OPINION STATEMENT

While cisplatin-based adjuvant chemotherapy has been the standard of care for the past two decades, the recent introduction of immunotherapy has heralded an important milestone in the adjuvant landscape of early-stage non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). The landmark approval of adjuvant atezolizumab based on disease-free survival (DFS) benefit in IMpower010 was swiftly followed by the recent data for use of adjuvant pembrolizumab in PEARLS/KEYNOTE-091, and similar trials involving other immune checkpoint inhibitors are eagerly anticipated. Although both atezolizumab and pembrolizumab demonstrated a significant DFS benefit in the intention-to-treat population, key subgroup analyses have raised questions about the role of predictive biomarkers such as PD-L1 expression and EGFR-mutation status. In this review, we examine the data from the two important trials (IMpower010 and PEARLS/KEYNOTE-091), discuss the controversies surrounding adjuvant immunotherapy including appropriate endpoints, biomarker selection and highlight key considerations in oncogene-driven NSCLC. Finally, we propose future directions including the impact of neoadjuvant therapy on developments in the adjuvant immunotherapy paradigm and role of minimal residual disease (MRD).

Assessment of the clinical and cost-effectiveness evidence in the reimbursement decisions of new cancer drugs

BACKGROUND

This study aimed to describe the clinical and cost-effectiveness evidence supporting reimbursement decisions of new cancer drugs and analyze the influence of trial characteristics and the cost per quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) on the likelihood of reimbursement in Sweden.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

Data were extracted from all appraisal dossiers for new cancer drugs seeking reimbursement in Sweden and claiming added therapeutical value between the years 2010 and 2020. The data were analyzed using descriptive statistics, and logistic regression models were also used with the cost per QALY, study design, comparator, and evidence on final outcomes in the clinical trials as predictors of reimbursement.

RESULTS

All 60 included appraisals were based on trial evidence that assessed at least one final outcome (overall survival [OS] or quality of life [QoL]), although rarely as a primary outcome. Of the appraisals with a final decision (n = 58), 79% were approved for reimbursement. Among the reimbursed drugs, only half had trial evidence demonstrating improved OS or QoL. Only one drug had trial evidence supporting improvements in both OS and QoL. The average cost per QALY for reimbursed cancer drugs was estimated to be 748 560 SEK (€73 583). A higher cost per QALY was found to decrease the likelihood of reimbursement by 9.4% for every 100 000 SEK (€9830) higher cost per QALY (P = 0.03). For cost-effectiveness models without direct evidence of improvements in final outcomes, a larger QALY gain was observed compared with those with evidence mainly relying on intermediate and surrogate outcomes.

CONCLUSIONS

There are substantial uncertainties in the clinical and cost-effectiveness evidence underlying reimbursement decisions of new cancer drugs. Decision makers should be cautious of the limited evidence on patient-centered outcomes and the implications of allocating resources to expensive treatments with uncertain value for money.

Validating ORR and PFS as surrogate endpoints in phase II and III clinical trials for NSCLC patients: difference exists in the strength of surrogacy in various trial settings

OBJECTIVE

This study aims to systematically validate the performance of surrogate endpoints in phase II and III clinical trials for NSCLC patients under various trial settings.

METHODS

A literature search retrieved all registered phase II and III trials of NSCLC patients in which OS, with at least one of ORR and PFS, were reported. Associations between surrogate and true endpoints were assessed on two levels. On the arm level, three pairs of correlations, i.e., ORR vs. median OS, ORR vs. median PFS, and median PFS vs. median OS, were analysed using Spearman's rho. On the trial level, similarly, three pairs of correlations, i.e., ΔORR vs. HR of OS, ΔORR vs. HR of PFS, and HR of PFS vs. HR of OS, were analysed using Spearman's rho and weighted linear regression model respectively. Finally, sensitivity analyses were performed to explore surrogacy under various trial settings.

RESULTS

At arm level, three pairs of correlations are all high (Spearman's rho = 0.700, 0.831, 0.755, respectively). At trial level, there is a low correlation between ΔORR and HR of OS, a high correlation between ΔORR and HR of PFS and a moderate correlation between HR of PFS and HR of OS (Spearman's rho = 0.462, 0.764, 0.584, respectively). In the sensitivity analysis, we find correlations between surrogate and true endpoints vary by different trial settings. It is noteworthy that the strength of surrogacy of these intermediate endpoints in targeted therapy is greater than that in immunotherapy.

CONCLUSION

According to the arm-level and trial level-analysis, we suggest that in phase II and III trials of targeted therapy and immunotherapy for NSCLC patients: 1) ORR lacks validity for the surrogacy of OS, excluding in first-line therapy, and 2) ORR may be an appropriate surrogate endpoint for PFS, and 3) PFS may be considered a modest surrogacy for OS, with better performance in first-line therapy trials. Moreover, to provide more convincing evidence of surrogacy of the surrogate endpoints, patient-level analyses are in desperate need.

The value of disease-free survival (DFS) and osimertinib in adjuvant non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC): an international Delphi consensus report

Background

Rates of disease recurrence and death following surgery remain high in early-stage non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC), despite adjuvant treatment and curative intent. Recently, osimertinib showed overwhelming evidence for disease-free survival (DFS), as demonstrated by an overall reduction in the risk of disease recurrence or death in the adjuvant setting of 80% versus control in the ADAURA study (stage IB-IIIA; hazard ratio 0.20; 99.12% confidence interval 0.14-0.30; P < 0.001). However, due to the early unblinding of ADAURA and lack of mature overall survival data, there is a need to qualitatively confirm consensus on the clinical and patient relevance of DFS.

Materials and methods

We conducted a modified Delphi panel study consisting of two rounds of surveys, followed by a consensus meeting. An international panel of experts in the field of NSCLC and epidermal growth factor receptor tyrosine kinase inhibitors (EGFR-TKIs) (n = 13) was asked to rate agreement and comment on a list of pre-defined statements covering key consensus gaps. Statements were eliminated or updated between surveys, depending on the level of agreement. A final list of agreed-upon statements was drafted in the consensus meeting.

Results

Consensus was reached on 32 qualitative statements, with topics including unmet needs in early-stage NSCLC, the value of DFS, and the value of osimertinib. Crucially, DFS was agreed to be a clinically and patient-relevant endpoint in adjuvant NSCLC. The relevance of DFS was found to relate to the ability of an adjuvant therapy, such as osimertinib, to keep patients in the clinically valuable curative intent setting, while preventing the burden associated with distant and locoregional recurrence, and progressive disease.

Conclusions

Addressing the need for measures that reflect clinical benefit is essential to continue improving outcomes for NSCLC patients. To that end, this work provides a qualitative framework for clinicians to consider the clinical and patient relevance of DFS in adjuvant NSCLC and the benefit demonstrated in ADAURA thus far.

•

There is a need for qualitative consensus assessment of the clinical and patient relevance of DFS in the adjuvant setting.

•

An international panel of experts viewed DFS as a clinically and patient-relevant endpoint in adjuvant NSCLC.

•

DFS relevance in adjuvant therapy, e.g. osimertinib, relates to keeping early-stage patients in a curative intent setting.

•

Curative intent prevents or significantly delays locoregional and distant (CNS) recurrence burden and progressive disease.

A deep learning-based system for survival benefit prediction of tyrosine kinase inhibitors and immune checkpoint inhibitors in stage IV non-small cell lung cancer patients: A multicenter, prognostic study

BACKGROUND

For clinical decision making, it is crucial to identify patients with stage IV non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) who may benefit from tyrosine kinase inhibitors (TKIs) and immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs). In this study, a deep learning-based system was designed and validated using pre-therapy computed tomography (CT) images to predict the survival benefits of EGFR-TKIs and ICIs in stage IV NSCLC patients.

METHODS

This retrospective study collected data from 570 patients with stage IV EGFR-mutant NSCLC treated with EGFR-TKIs at five institutions between 2010 and 2021 (data of 314 patients were from a previously registered study), and 129 patients with stage IV NSCLC treated with ICIs at three institutions between 2017 and 2021 to build the ICI test dataset. Five-fold cross-validation was applied to divide the EGFR-TKI-treated patients from four institutions into training and internal validation datasets randomly in a ratio of 80%:20%, and the data from another institution was used as an external test dataset. An EfficientNetV2-based survival benefit prognosis (ESBP) system was developed with pre-therapy CT images as the input and the probability score as the output to identify which patients would receive additional survival benefit longer than the median PFS. Its prognostic performance was validated on the ICI test dataset. For diagnosing which patient would receive additional survival benefit, the accuracy of ESBP was compared with the estimations of three radiologists and three oncologists with varying degrees of expertise (two, five, and ten years). Improvements in the clinicians' diagnostic accuracy with ESBP assistance were then quantified.

FINDINGS

ESBP achieved positive predictive values of 80·40%, 75·40%, and 77·43% for additional EGFR-TKI survival benefit prediction using the probability score of 0·2 as the threshold on the training, internal validation, and external test datasets, respectively. The higher ESBP score (>0·2) indicated a better prognosis for progression-free survival (hazard ratio: 0·36, 95% CI: 0·19-0·68, p<0·0001) in patients on the external test dataset. Patients with scores >0·2 in the ICI test dataset also showed better survival benefit (hazard ratio: 0·33, 95% CI: 0·18-0·55, p<0·0001). This suggests the potential of ESBP to identify the two subgroups of benefiting patients by decoding the commonalities from pre-therapy CT images (stage IV EGFR-mutant NSCLC patients receiving additional survival benefit from EGFR-TKIs and stage IV NSCLC patients receiving additional survival benefit from ICIs). ESBP assistance improved the diagnostic accuracy of the clinicians with two years of experience from 47·91% to 66·32%, and the clinicians with five years of experience from 53·12% to 61·41%.

INTERPRETATION

This study developed and externally validated a preoperative CT image-based deep learning model to predict the survival benefits of EGFR-TKI and ICI therapies in stage IV NSCLC patients, which will facilitate optimized and individualized treatment strategies.

FUNDING

This study received funding from the National Natural Science Foundation of China (82001904, 81930053, and 62027901), and Key-Area Research and Development Program of Guangdong Province (2021B0101420005).

Perioperative Systemic Therapy for Resectable Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer

Despite remarkable treatment advancements in patients with advanced non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC), recurrence rates for those with resectable, early-stage disease remains high. Immune checkpoint inhibitors and targeted therapies are 2 promising treatment modalities that may improve survival outcomes for patients with resected NSCLC when moved from the advanced stage to the curable setting. There are many clinical studies that have evaluated or are currently evaluating immunotherapy or targeted therapy in the perioperative setting, and recent trials such as CheckMate 816, ADAURA, and IMpower010 have led to new approvals and demonstrated the promise of this approach. This review discusses recent and ongoing neoadjuvant and adjuvant systemic therapy trials in NSCLC, and where the field may be going in the near future.

Effectiveness of durvalumab consolidation in stage III non-small-cell lung cancer: focus on treatment selection and prognostic factors

The pivotal PACIFIC trial defined durvalumab consolidation as the new standard of care in patients with stage III non-small-cell lung cancer treated with definitive radiochemotherapy. The authors characterized the durvalumab effect after induction chemotherapy according to the ESPATUE trial and definitive radiochemotherapy. All consecutive patients with stage III non-small-cell lung cancer receiving definitive radiochemotherapy between January 2017 and February 2020 were included. Primary end points were progression-free survival and overall survival. Altogether, 160 patients (75 PD-L1-positive, 62 PD-L1-negative, 23 unknown) received definitive radiochemotherapy, 146 (91%) of whom received prior induction chemotherapy. Durvalumab consolidation showed high effectiveness overall and in the good-risk group according to the PACIFIC trial (log-rank test: p < 0.005). Hazard ratios for progression-free survival and overall survival were at the lower limits of those in the PACIFIC trial. These results were robust to adjustment for potential confounders by propensity score weighting. Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group (ECOG) performance status was the most important pretreatment prognostic factor.

Locally Advanced Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer: Clinical Outcome, Toxicity and Predictive Factors in Patients Treated with Hypofractionated Sequential or Exclusive Radiotherapy

Background: This study evaluated the outcome, toxicity and predictive factors in patients unfit for concurrent chemo-radiotherapy (CT-RT) treated with hypofractionated sequential CT-RT or exclusive radiotherapy (RT) for locally advanced non-small cell lung cancer (LA-NSCLC). Methods: We included patients affected by LA-NSCLC (stage IIA-IVA) treated with a total dose of 50–60 Gy in 20 fractions. The primary outcomes were local control (LC), distant metastasis-free survival (DMFS), progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS). Univariate analysis was used to correlate outcomes with prognostic factors. Results: Between 2011 and 2019, 210 patients were treated, 113 (53.8%) with sequential CT-RT and 97 (46.2%) with exclusive RT. After a median follow-up of 15.3 months, 74 patients (35.2%) had a local progression and 133 (63.3%) had a distant progression. The one-, two- and five-year LC were 73.6%, 55.3% and 47.9%, respectively. At the time of analysis, 167 patients (79.5%) died. The one-, two- and five-year OS were 64.7%, 36% and 20%, respectively. PTV volume correlated with PFS (p = 0.001) and LC (p = 0.005). Acute and late toxicity occurred in 82% and 26% of patients. Conclusions: Albeit with the known limitations of a retrospective and heterogeneous study, our work shows that hypofractionated sequential CT-RT or exclusive RT offer a good local control and toxicity profile and a promising survival rate in LA-NSCLC patients unfit for the concurrent CT-RT scheme.

External Validation of a Prognostic Score for Survival in Lung Carcinoids

Background: A prognostic score including T-dimension, age, histology and lymph node ratio was previously proposed in absence of an external validation dataset. The aim of the current study was to validate the proposed prognostic score using an independent dataset. Methods: Data of patients with lung carcinoids, who underwent surgical resection and lymphadenectomy in five institutions from 1 January 2005 to 31 December 2019, were retrospectively analyzed. Two risk groups were created based on the following data: age, histology, node ratio and pT for disease-free survival (DFS); age, sex, node ratio and pT for overall survival (OS). The previously proposed score was validated, identifying two groups of patients: a high risk (HRG) and low risk (LRG) group. Results: The final analysis was conducted on 283 patients. Regarding DFS, 230 (81.3%) patients were assigned to the LRG and 53 (18.7%) to the HRG. Considering OS, 268 (94.7%) were allocated in the LRG and 15 (5.3%) in the HRG. The 5-year DFS was 92.7% in the LRG vs. 67% in the HRG (p < 0.001) while the 5-year OS was 93.6% in the LRG vs. 86.2% in the HRG (p = 0.29) with clear curve separation. Conclusion: Our analysis confirmed the validity of the composite score for DFS in lung carcinoids. Regarding OS, statistical significance was not reached because of a low number of deaths and patients in the HRG.

Overall Survival and Biomarker Analysis of Neoadjuvant Nivolumab Plus Chemotherapy in Operable Stage IIIA Non-Small-Cell Lung Cancer (NADIM phase II trial)

Neoadjuvant chemotherapy plus nivolumab has been shown to be effective in resectable non–small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC) in the NADIM trial (ClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT03081689). The 3-year overall survival (OS) and circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) analysis have not been reported.

Randomized Controlled Trials in Lung, Gastrointestinal, and Breast Cancers: An Overview of Global Research Activity

Background: In this study, we compared and contrasted design characteristics, results, and publications of randomized controlled trials (RCTs) in gastrointestinal (GI), lung, and breast cancer. Methods: A PUBMED search identified phase III RCTs of anticancer therapy in GI, lung, and breast cancer published globally during the period 2014−2017. Descriptive statistics, chi-square tests, and the Kruskal−Wallis test were used to compare RCT design, results, and output across the cancer sites. Results: A total of 352 RCTs were conducted on GI (36%), lung (29%), and breast (35%) cancer. Surrogate endpoints were used in 55% of trials; this was most common in breast trials (72%) compared to GI (47%) and lung trials (43%, p < 0.001). Breast trials more often met their primary endpoint (54%) than GI (41%) and lung trials (41%) (p = 0.024). When graded with the ESMO-MCBS, lung cancer trials (50%, 15/30) were more likely to meet the threshold for substantial benefit. GI trials were published in journals with a substantially lower impact factor (IF; median IF 13) than lung (median IF 21) and breast cancer trials (median IF 21) (p = 0.038). Conclusions: Important differences in RCT design and output exist between the three major cancer sites. Use of surrogate endpoints and the magnitude of benefit associated with new treatments vary substantially across cancer sites.

Efficacy and safety of adjuvant EGFR-TKIs for resected non-small cell lung cancer: a systematic review and meta-analysis based on randomized control trials

Background

Postoperative adjuvant cisplatin-based chemotherapy had been the standard care in patients with completely resected high-risk stage IB to IIIA non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) for decades. However, the survival benefits were far from satisfactory in clinical practice. Thus, this meta-analysis was performed to compare the efficacy and safety of adjuvant epidermal growth factor receptor tyrosine kinase inhibitors (EGFR-TKIs) in patients with resected NSCLC based on updated literature and research.

Methods

A systematic literature search based on random control trials (RCTs) was conducted with keywords on PubMed, Embase and the Cochrane library databases. All articles compared EGFR-TKIs to placebo or chemotherapy as adjuvant therapies for early-stage resected NSCLC. A meta-analysis was performed to generate combined hazard ratio (HR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI) for disease-free survival (DFS), overall survival (OS), and risk ratio (RR) with 95% CI for disease recurrence and adverse events (AEs). The Stata statistical software (version 14.0) was used to synthesis the data.

Results

A total of 9 RCTs comprising 3098 patients were included. Adjuvant EGFR-TKIs could significantly prolong DFS in patient with resected NSCLC harboring epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) mutations (HR 0.46, 95% CI 0.29–0.72), but had no impact on OS (HR 0.87, 95% CI 0.69–1.11). The subgroup analyses indicated that adjuvant EGFR-TKIs were superior in regard to DFS in most subgroups, including varied smoking status, EGFR mutations type, gender, age, Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status and adenocarcinoma. Osimertinib resulted in decreased brain recurrence than first generation of EGFR-TKIs (RR 0.12, 95% CI 0.04–0.34 vs. RR 1.07, 95% CI 0.64–1.78, respectively). The AEs were generally manageable and tolerable. The incidence of high-grade (≥ 3) AEs including diarrhea (RR 5.68, 95% CI 2.94–10.98) and rash (RR 27.74, 95% CI 11.43–67.30) increased after adjuvant EGFR-TKIs treatment.

Conclusions

Adjuvant EGFR-TKIs therapy could significantly prolong DFS in patients with completely resected early-stage EGFR mutation-positive NSCLC, but had no impact on OS. Adjuvant EGFR-TKIs could be an important treatment option in patients with resected early-stage EGFR-mutant NSCLC.

Response Rate, Event-Free Survival, and Overall Survival in Newly Diagnosed Acute Myeloid Leukemia: US Food and Drug Administration Trial-Level and Patient-Level Analyses

PURPOSE

To explore trial-level and patient-level associations between response (complete remission [CR] and CR + CR with incomplete hematologic [CRi] or platelet [CRp] recovery), event-free survival (EFS), and overall survival (OS) in newly diagnosed acute myeloid leukemia (AML) trials of intensive chemotherapy.

METHODS

We identified data from eight randomized, active-controlled trials of intensive chemotherapy submitted to the US Food and Drug Administration for treatment of newly diagnosed AML (N = 4,482). Associations between trial-level odds ratios (ORs) for CR and CR + CRi or CRp, and hazard ratios (HRs) for EFS and OS were analyzed using weighted linear regression models. We performed patient-level responder analyses to compare OS by response using pooled data from all studies.

RESULTS

In trial-level analyses, association between HR for OS and OR for CR was moderate (R² = 0.49; 95% CI, 0.05 to 0.86), as was the association with OR for CR + CRi or CRp (R² = 0.48; 95% CI, 0.05 to 0.99). For OS versus EFS, a strong association was observed (R² = 0.87; 95% CI, 0.47 to 0.98) when EFS definitions were harmonized across trials using raw data. In the patient-level responder analyses, patients who achieved CR had better OS compared with CRi or CRp responders (0.73; 95% CI, 0.64 to 0.84) and nonresponders (HR, 0.33; 95% CI, 0.31 to 0.37).

CONCLUSION

On a trial level, there is a moderate association between OS and CR rate. A strong association between EFS and OS was observed. However, CIs were wide, and results became moderate using alternative definitions for EFS. Patient-level analyses showed CR responders have better OS compared with CRi or CRp responders and nonresponders. A therapy in newly diagnosed AML with benefit in EFS or substantial benefit in CR rate would be likely to have an OS effect.

Progression-Free Survival and Time to Progression as Potential Surrogate Endpoints for Overall Survival in Chemoradiotherapy Trials in Limited-Stage Small-Cell Lung Cancer: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Purpose

To investigate whether progression-free survival (PFS) or time to progression (TTP) could be a valid surrogate endpoint for overall survival (OS) in patients with limited-stage small-cell lung cancer (LS-SCLC) receiving combined chemoradiotherapy.

Methods

Literature searching was performed in PubMed, Embase, and The Cochrane Library up to 2021. Prediction models were firstly established using data from phase III randomized controlled trials (RCTs) and then externally validated in phase II and retrospective studies. Correlation analysis was evaluated by a weighted linear regression model at both trial and arm levels. Cross-validation was performed to assess the consistency and robustness of the established models.

Results

37 studies, including 15 phase III RCTs, 12 phase II studies, and 10 retrospective studies, were selected in the final analysis. In trial-level surrogacy, a very good correlation was observed between hazard ratios (HRs) of PFS/TTP and OS (R2 = 0.783, 95% CI 0.771–0.794). In arm-level surrogacy, very good correlations were also observed between 2-year (R2 = 0.823, 95% CI 0.814–0.832), 3-year (R2 = 0.843, 95% CI 0.833–0.850), 5-year (R2 = 0.852, 95% CI 0.843–0.859) PFS/TTP, and 5-year OS. An excellent correlation was observed between 4-year PFS/TTP and 5-year OS (R2 = 0.906, 95% CI 0.901–0.910). Cross-validation demonstrated reasonable overall consistency. External validation in phase II and retrospective studies showed good agreement (R2, 0.728–0.824).

Conclusions

PFS/TTP was a valid surrogate endpoint for OS in patients with LS-SCLC receiving combined chemoradiotherapy. The finding provides high-level evidence to support PFS/TTP as the primary endpoint in clinical trials so as to speed up introducing novel agents to the treatment of LS-SCLC.

Thioredoxin reductase-1 levels are associated with NRF2 pathway activation and tumor recurrence in non-small cell lung cancer

Activating mutations in the KEAP1/NRF2 pathway characterize a subset of non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) associated with chemoresistance and poor prognosis. We herein evaluated the relationship between 64 oxidative stress-related genes and overall survival data from 35 lung cancer datasets. Thioredoxin reductase-1 (TXNRD1) stood out as the most significant predictor of poor outcome. In a cohort of NSCLC patients, high TXNRD1 protein levels correlated with shorter disease-free survival and distal metastasis-free survival post-surgery, including a subset of individuals treated with platinum-based adjuvant chemotherapy. Bioinformatics analysis revealed that NSCLC tumors harboring genetic alterations in the NRF2 pathway (KEAP1, NFE2L2 and CUL3 mutations, and NFE2L2 amplification) overexpress TXNRD1, while no association with EGFR, KRAS, TP53 and PIK3CA mutations was found. In addition, nuclear accumulation of NRF2 overlapped with upregulated TXNRD1 protein in NSCLC tumors. Functional cell assays and gene dependency analysis revealed that NRF2, but not TXNRD1, has a pivotal role in KEAP1 mutant cells' survival. KEAP1 mutants overexpress TXNRD1 and are less susceptible to the cytotoxic effects of the TXNRD1 inhibitor auranofin when compared to wild-type cell lines. Inhibition of NRF2 with siRNA or ML-385, and glutathione depletion with buthionine-sulfoximine, sensitized KEAP1 mutant A549 cells to auranofin. NRF2 knockdown and GSH depletion also augmented cisplatin cytotoxicity in A549 cells, whereas auranofin had no effect. In summary, these findings suggest that TXNRD1 is not a key determinant of malignant phenotypes in KEAP1 mutant cells, although this protein can be a surrogate marker of NRF2 pathway activation, predicting tumor recurrence and possibly other aggressive phenotypes associated with NRF2 hyperactivation in NSCLC.

Progression-free survival assessed per immune-related or conventional response criteria, which is the better surrogate endpoint for overall survival in trials of immune-checkpoint inhibitors in lung cancer: A systematic review and meta-analysis

Progression-free survival (PFS) has been used as a surrogate endpoint for overall survival (OS) in lung cancer trials. The pattern of response to immune-checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs) differs from that to conventional chemotherapy, so immune-related response evaluation criteria were proposed. This study aims at determining which PFS measure, PFS assessed per immune-related response evaluation criteria (iPFS), or conventional criteria (cPFS), is the better surrogate endpoint for OS in trials of ICIs in lung cancer. We selected clinical trials in lung cancer that administered ICIs to at least one arm and reported both median OS and median PFS from PubMed, Embase, and The Cochrane Library. We compared the correlation between treatment effect (hazard ratio) on OS and cPFS or iPFS and the correlation between median OS and median cPFS or iPFS using weighted linear regression at trial level. We analyzed 78 ICI arms (13,438 patients) from 54 studies, including 66 arms with cPFS, seven arms with iPFS, and five arms with both kinds of PFS. We demonstrated an excellent correlation between treatment effect (hazard ratio) on OS and iPFS (RWLS2  = 0.91), while the correlation was moderate for cPFS (RWLS2  = 0.38). Similarly, the correlation between median OS and median iPFS was also strong (RWLS2 ranging from 0.86 to 0.96) across different phases of trials and different types of lung cancer, ICI, and treatment modalities, while it was much weaker for median cPFS (RWLS2 ranging from 0.28 to 0.88). In conclusion, iPFS provides better trial-level surrogacy for OS than cPFS in trials of ICIs in lung cancer.

A radiomics prognostic scoring system for predicting progression-free survival in patients with stage IV non-small cell lung cancer treated with platinum-based chemotherapy

Objective

To develop and validate a radiomics prognostic scoring system (RPSS) for prediction of progression-free survival (PFS) in patients with stage IV non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) treated with platinum-based chemotherapy.

Methods

In this retrospective study, four independent cohorts of stage IV NSCLC patients treated with platinum-based chemotherapy were included for model construction and validation (Discovery: n=159; Internal validation: n=156; External validation: n=81, Mutation validation: n=64). First, a total of 1,182 three-dimensional radiomics features were extracted from pre-treatment computed tomography (CT) images of each patient. Then, a radiomics signature was constructed using the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator method (LASSO) penalized Cox regression analysis. Finally, an individualized prognostic scoring system incorporating radiomics signature and clinicopathologic risk factors was proposed for PFS prediction.

Results

The established radiomics signature consisting of 16 features showed good discrimination for classifying patients with high-risk and low-risk progression to chemotherapy in all cohorts (All P<0.05). On the multivariable analysis, independent factors for PFS were radiomics signature, performance status (PS), and N stage, which were all selected into construction of RPSS. The RPSS showed significant prognostic performance for predicting PFS in discovery [C-index: 0.772, 95% confidence interval (95% CI): 0.765−0.779], internal validation (C-index: 0.738, 95% CI: 0.730−0.746), external validation (C-index: 0.750, 95% CI: 0.734−0.765), and mutation validation (C-index: 0.739, 95% CI: 0.720−0.758). Decision curve analysis revealed that RPSS significantly outperformed the clinicopathologic-based model in terms of clinical usefulness (All P<0.05).

Conclusions

This study established a radiomics prognostic scoring system as RPSS that can be conveniently used to achieve individualized prediction of PFS probability for stage IV NSCLC patients treated with platinum-based chemotherapy, which holds promise for guiding personalized pre-therapy of stage IV NSCLC.

Recent advances and new insights in the management of early-stage epidermal growth factor receptor-mutated non-small-cell lung cancer

Patients with early-stage non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC) are candidates for curative surgery; however, despite multiple advances in lung cancer management, recurrence rates remain high. Adjuvant chemotherapy has been demonstrated to significantly prolong overall survival (OS), but this benefit is modest and there is an urgent need for effective new therapies to provide a cure for more patients. The high efficacy of tyrosine kinase inhibitors (TKIs) against epidermal growth factor receptor-mutated (EGFR) in patients with advanced EGFR-mutated NSCLC has led to the evaluation of these agents in early stages of the disease. Multiple clinical trials have evaluated the safety and efficacy of EGFR TKIs as an adjuvant treatment, in patients with resected EGFR-mutated NSCLC, and shown that they significantly prolong disease-free survival (DFS), but this benefit does not translate to OS. Recently, an interim analysis of the ADAURA trial demonstrated that, surprisingly, osimertinib improved DFS. This led to the study being stopped early, leaving many unanswered questions about its potential effect on OS and its incorporation as a standard adjuvant treatment in this patient subgroup. These targeted agents are also being evaluated in locally-advanced disease, with promising results, although prospective studies with larger sample sizes are needed to confirm these results. In this article, we review the most relevant studies on the role of EGFR TKIs in the management of early-stage EGFR-mutated NSCLC.