Sequential intrahost evolution and onward transmission of SARS-CoV-2 variants

The impact of S2 mutations on Omicron SARS-CoV-2 cell surface expression and fusogenicity

SARS-CoV-2 Omicron subvariants are still emerging and spreading worldwide. These variants contain a high number of polymorphisms in the spike (S) glycoprotein that could potentially impact their pathogenicity and transmission. We have previously shown that the S:655Y and P681H mutations enhance S protein cleavage and syncytia formation. Interestingly, these polymorphisms are present in Omicron S protein. Here, we characterized the cleavage efficiency and fusogenicity of the S protein of different Omicron sublineages. Our results showed that Omicron BA.1 subvariant is efficiently cleaved but it is poorly fusogenic compared to previous SARS-CoV-2 strains. To understand the basis of this phenotype, we generated chimeric S protein using combinations of the S1 and S2 domains from WA1, Delta and Omicron BA.1 variants. We found that the S2 domain of Omicron BA.1 hindered efficient cell-cell fusion. Interestingly, this domain only contains six unique polymorphisms never detected before in ancestral SARS-CoV-2 variants. WA1614G S proteins containing the six individuals S2 Omicron mutations were assessed for their fusogenicity and S surface expression after transfection in cells. Results showed that the S:N856K and N969K substitutions decreased syncytia formation and impacted S protein cell surface levels. However, we observed that "first-generation" Omicron sublineages that emerged subsequently, had convergently evolved to an enhanced fusogenic activity and S expression on the surface of infected cells while "second-generation" Omicron variants have highly diverged and showed lineage-specific fusogenic properties. Importantly, our findings could have potential implications in the improvement and redesign of COVID-19 vaccines.

SARS-CoV-2 evolution has increased resistance to monoclonal antibodies and first-generation COVID-19 vaccines: Is there a future therapeutic role for soluble ACE2 receptors for COVID-19?

COVID-19 has caused calamitous health, economic and societal consequences. Although several COVID-19 vaccines have received full authorization for use, global deployment has faced political, financial and logistical challenges. The efficacy of first-generation COVID-19 vaccines is waning and breakthrough infections are allowing ongoing transmission and evolution of SARS-CoV-2. Furthermore, COVID-19 vaccine efficacy relies on a functional immune system. Despite receiving three primary doses and three or more heterologous boosters, some immunocompromised patients may not be adequately protected by COVID-19 vaccines and remain vulnerable to severe disease. The evolution of new SARS-CoV-2 variants has also resulted in the rapid obsolescence of monoclonal antibodies. Convalescent plasma from COVID-19 survivors has produced inconsistent results. New drugs such as Paxlovid (nirmatrelvir/ritonavir) are beyond the reach of low- and middle-income countries. With widespread use of Paxlovid, it is likely nirmatrelvir-resistant clades of SARS-CoV-2 will emerge in the future. There is thus an urgent need for new effective anti-SARS-CoV-2 treatments. The in vitro efficacy of soluble ACE2 against multiple SARS-CoV-2 variants including omicron (B.1.1.529), was recently described using a competitive ELISA assay as a surrogate marker for virus neutralization. This indicates soluble wild-type ACE2 receptors are likely to be resistant to viral evolution. Nasal and inhaled treatment with soluble ACE2 receptors has abrogated severe disease in animal models of COVID-19. There is an urgent need for clinical trials of this new class of antiviral therapeutics, which could complement vaccines and Paxlovid.

SARS-CoV-2 resistance to monoclonal antibodies and small-molecule drugs

Over four years have passed since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic. The scientific response has been rapid and effective, with many therapeutic monoclonal antibodies and small molecules developed for clinical use. However, given the ability for viruses to become resistant to antivirals, it is perhaps no surprise that the field has identified resistance to nearly all of these compounds. Here, we provide a comprehensive review of the resistance profile for each of these therapeutics. We hope that this resource provides an atlas for mutations to be aware of for each agent, particularly as a springboard for considerations for the next generation of antivirals. Finally, we discuss the outlook and thoughts for moving forward in how we continue to manage this, and the next, pandemic.

SARS-CoV-2 Mu variant in dogs visiting veterinary clinics during the third pandemic peak in Eastern Colombia

The global presence of SARS-CoV-2 in household pets is acknowledged, yet documentation remains scarce, leaving many regions unexplored. Thus, our study sought to fill this gap by investigating SARS-CoV-2 presence in dogs visiting veterinary clinics during the third pandemic peak in eastern Colombia. We collected and analyzed 43 oropharyngeal and rectal swabs using real-time PCR assays targeting the Envelope Gene of SARS-CoV-2. Out of these, two dogs tested positive, indicating an infection rate of 4.7%. Further examination through complete sequencing and phylogenetic analysis revealed the lineage B.1.621 for the SARS-CoV-2 genome. Consequently, our study unveils the first documented cases of Canis lupus familiaris infected with the Mu variant of SARS-CoV-2, the variant with the most death burden during the whole pandemic in Colombia. Remarkably, these cases presented mild and reversible respiratory and gastrointestinal symptoms, or no clinical manifestations at all. This sheds light on the virus's interaction with our four-legged companions, offering valuable insights into its transmission dynamics and potential effects on animal health.

Stuck in pandemic uncertainty: a review of the persistent effects of COVID-19 infection in immune-deficient people

BACKGROUND

People who are immune-deficient/disordered (IDP) are underrepresented in COVID-19 studies. Specifically, there is limited research on post-SARS-CoV-2 infection outcomes, including viral persistence and long-term sequelae in these populations.

OBJECTIVES

This review aimed to examine the published literature on the occurrence of persistent SARS-CoV-2 positivity, relapse, reinfections, variant coinfection, and post-acute sequelae of COVID-19 in IDP. Although the available literature largely centred on those with secondary immunodeficiencies, studies on people with inborn errors of immunity are also included.

SOURCES

PubMed was searched using medical subject headings terms to identify relevant articles from the last 4 years. Articles on primary and secondary immunodeficiencies were chosen, and a special emphasis was placed on including articles that studied people with inborn errors of immunity. The absence of extensive cohort studies including these individuals has limited most articles in this review to case reports, whereas the articles focusing on secondary immunodeficiencies include larger cohort, case-control, and cross-sectional studies. Articles focusing solely on HIV/AIDS were excluded.

CONTENT

Scientific literature suggests that IDP of any age are more likely to experience persistent SARS-CoV-2 infections. Although adult IDP exhibits a higher rate of post-acute sequelae of COVID-19, milder COVID-19 infections in children may reduce their risk of experiencing post-acute sequelae of COVID-19. Reinfections and coinfections may occur at a slightly higher rate in IDP than in the general population.

IMPLICATIONS

Although IDP experience increased viral persistence and inter-host evolution, it is unlikely that enough evidence can be generated at the population-level to support or refute the hypothesis that infections in IDP are significantly more likely to result in variants of concern than infections in the general population. Additional research on the relationship between viral persistence and the rate of long-term sequelae in IDP could inform the understanding of the immune response to SARS-CoV-2 in IDP and the general population.

In silico clinical studies for optimal COVID-19 vaccination schedules in patients with cancer

This study introduces a tailored COVID-19 model for patients with cancer, incorporating viral variants and immune-response dynamics. The model aims to optimize vaccination strategies, contributing to personalized healthcare for vulnerable groups.

SARS-CoV-2 evolution during prolonged infection in immunocompromised patients

Prolonged infection with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in immunocompromised patients provides an opportunity for viral evolution, potentially leading to the generation of new pathogenic variants. To investigate the pathways of viral evolution, we carried out a study on five patients experiencing prolonged SARS-CoV-2 infection (quantitative polymerase chain reaction-positive for 79-203 days) who were immunocompromised due to treatment for lymphoma or solid organ transplantation. For each timepoint analyzed, we generated at least two independent viral genome sequences to assess the heterogeneity and control for sequencing error. Four of the five patients likely had prolonged infection; the fifth apparently experienced a reinfection. The rates of accumulation of substitutions in the viral genome per day were higher in hospitalized patients with prolonged infection than those estimated for the community background. The spike coding region accumulated a significantly greater number of unique mutations than other viral coding regions, and the mutation density was higher. Two patients were treated with monoclonal antibodies (bebtelovimab and sotrovimab); by the next sampled timepoint, each virus population showed substitutions associated with monoclonal antibody resistance as the dominant forms (spike K444N and spike E340D). All patients received remdesivir, but remdesivir-resistant substitutions were not detected. These data thus help elucidate the trends of emergence, evolution, and selection of mutational variants within long-term infected immunocompromised individuals.

IMPORTANCE

SARS-CoV-2 is responsible for a global pandemic, driven in part by the emergence of new viral variants. Where do these new variants come from? One model is that long-term viral persistence in infected individuals allows for viral evolution in response to host pressures, resulting in viruses more likely to replicate efficiently in humans. In this study, we characterize replication in several hospitalized and long-term infected individuals, documenting efficient pathways of viral evolution.

VIPERA: Viral Intra-Patient Evolution Reporting and Analysis

Viral mutations within patients nurture the adaptive potential of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) during chronic infections, which are a potential source of variants of concern. However, there is no integrated framework for the evolutionary analysis of intra-patient SARS-CoV-2 serial samples. Herein, we describe Viral Intra-Patient Evolution Reporting and Analysis (VIPERA), a new software that integrates the evaluation of the intra-patient ancestry of SARS-CoV-2 sequences with the analysis of evolutionary trajectories of serial sequences from the same viral infection. We have validated it using positive and negative control datasets and have successfully applied it to a new case, which revealed population dynamics and evidence of adaptive evolution. VIPERA is available under a free software license at https://github.com/PathoGenOmics-Lab/VIPERA.

SARS-CoV-2 shedding and evolution in patients who were immunocompromised during the omicron period: a multicentre, prospective analysis

BACKGROUND

Prolonged SARS-CoV-2 infections in people who are immunocompromised might predict or source the emergence of highly mutated variants. The types of immunosuppression placing patients at highest risk for prolonged infection have not been systematically investigated. We aimed to assess risk factors for prolonged SARS-CoV-2 infection and associated intrahost evolution.

METHODS

In this multicentre, prospective analysis, participants were enrolled at five US medical centres. Eligible patients were aged 18 years or older, were SARS-CoV-2-positive in the previous 14 days, and had a moderately or severely immunocompromising condition or treatment. Nasal specimens were tested by real-time RT-PCR every 2-4 weeks until negative in consecutive specimens. Positive specimens underwent viral culture and whole genome sequencing. A Cox proportional hazards model was used to assess factors associated with duration of infection.

FINDINGS

From April 11, 2022, to Oct 1, 2022, 156 patients began the enrolment process, of whom 150 were enrolled and included in the analyses. Participants had B-cell malignancy or anti-B-cell therapy (n=18), solid organ transplantation or haematopoietic stem-cell transplantation (HSCT; n=59), AIDS (n=5), non-B-cell malignancy (n=23), and autoimmune or autoinflammatory conditions (n=45). 38 (25%) participants were real-time RT-PCR-positive and 12 (8%) were culture-positive 21 days or longer after initial SARS-CoV-2 detection or illness onset. Compared with the group with autoimmune or autoinflammatory conditions, patients with B-cell dysfunction (adjusted hazard ratio 0·32 [95% CI 0·15-0·64]), solid organ transplantation or HSCT (0·60 [0·38-0·94]), and AIDS (0·28 [0·08-1·00]) had longer duration of infection, defined as time to last positive real-time RT-PCR test. There was no significant difference in the non-B-cell malignancy group (0·58 [0·31-1·09]). Consensus de novo spike mutations were identified in five individuals who were real-time RT-PCR-positive longer than 56 days; 14 (61%) of 23 were in the receptor-binding domain. Mutations shared by multiple individuals were rare (<5%) in global circulation.

INTERPRETATION

In this cohort, prolonged replication-competent omicron SARS-CoV-2 infections were uncommon. Within-host evolutionary rates were similar across patients, but individuals with infections lasting longer than 56 days accumulated spike mutations, which were distinct from those seen globally. Populations at high risk should be targeted for repeated testing and treatment and monitored for the emergence of antiviral resistance.

FUNDING

US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

High-throughput screening of genetic and cellular drivers of syncytium formation induced by the spike protein of SARS-CoV-2

Mapping mutations and discovering cellular determinants that cause the spike protein of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) to induce infected cells to form syncytia would facilitate the development of strategies for blocking the formation of such cell-cell fusion. Here we describe high-throughput screening methods based on droplet microfluidics and the size-exclusion selection of syncytia, coupled with large-scale mutagenesis and genome-wide knockout screening via clustered regularly interspaced short palindromic repeats (CRISPR), for the large-scale identification of determinants of cell-cell fusion. We used the methods to perform deep mutational scans in spike-presenting cells to pinpoint mutable syncytium-enhancing substitutions in two regions of the spike protein (the fusion peptide proximal region and the furin-cleavage site). We also used a genome-wide CRISPR screen in cells expressing the receptor angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 to identify inhibitors of clathrin-mediated endocytosis that impede syncytium formation, which we validated in hamsters infected with SARS-CoV-2. Finding genetic and cellular determinants of the formation of syncytia may reveal insights into the physiological and pathological consequences of cell-cell fusion.

Persistent SARS-CoV-2 infection: significance and implications

SARS-CoV-2 causes persistent infections in a subset of individuals, which is a major clinical and public health problem that should be prioritised for further investigation for several reasons. First, persistent SARS-CoV-2 infection often goes unrecognised, and therefore might affect a substantial number of people, particularly immunocompromised individuals. Second, the formation of tissue reservoirs (including in non-respiratory tissues) might underlie the pathophysiology of the persistent SARS-CoV-2 infection and require new strategies for diagnosis and treatment. Finally, persistent SARS-CoV-2 replication, particularly in the setting of suboptimal immune responses, is a possible source of new, divergent virus variants that escape pre-existing immunity on the individual and population levels. Defining optimal diagnostic and treatment strategies for patients with persistent virus replication and monitoring viral evolution are therefore urgent medical and public health priorities.

Prevalence of persistent SARS-CoV-2 in a large community surveillance study

Persistent SARS-CoV-2 infections may act as viral reservoirs that could seed future outbreaks1-5, give rise to highly divergent lineages6-8 and contribute to cases with post-acute COVID-19 sequelae (long COVID)9,10. However, the population prevalence of persistent infections, their viral load kinetics and evolutionary dynamics over the course of infections remain largely unknown. Here, using viral sequence data collected as part of a national infection survey, we identified 381 individuals with SARS-CoV-2 RNA at high titre persisting for at least 30 days, of which 54 had viral RNA persisting at least 60 days. We refer to these as 'persistent infections' as available evidence suggests that they represent ongoing viral replication, although the persistence of non-replicating RNA cannot be ruled out in all. Individuals with persistent infection had more than 50% higher odds of self-reporting long COVID than individuals with non-persistent infection. We estimate that 0.1-0.5% of infections may become persistent with typically rebounding high viral loads and last for at least 60 days. In some individuals, we identified many viral amino acid substitutions, indicating periods of strong positive selection, whereas others had no consensus change in the sequences for prolonged periods, consistent with weak selection. Substitutions included mutations that are lineage defining for SARS-CoV-2 variants, at target sites for monoclonal antibodies and/or are commonly found in immunocompromised people11-14. This work has profound implications for understanding and characterizing SARS-CoV-2 infection, epidemiology and evolution.

SARS-CoV-2 viral clearance and evolution varies by type and severity of immunodeficiency

Despite vaccination and antiviral therapies, immunocompromised individuals are at risk for prolonged severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection, but the immune defects that predispose an individual to persistent coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) remain incompletely understood. In this study, we performed detailed viro-immunologic analyses of a prospective cohort of participants with COVID-19. The median times to nasal viral RNA and culture clearance in individuals with severe immunosuppression due to hematologic malignancy or transplant (S-HT) were 72 and 40 days, respectively, both of which were significantly longer than clearance rates in individuals with severe immunosuppression due to autoimmunity or B cell deficiency (S-A), individuals with nonsevere immunodeficiency, and nonimmunocompromised groups (P < 0.01). Participants who were severely immunocompromised had greater SARS-CoV-2 evolution and a higher risk of developing resistance against therapeutic monoclonal antibodies. Both S-HT and S-A participants had diminished SARS-CoV-2-specific humoral responses, whereas only the S-HT group had reduced T cell-mediated responses. This highlights the varied risk of persistent COVID-19 across distinct immunosuppressive conditions and suggests that suppression of both B and T cell responses results in the highest contributing risk of persistent infection.

Rapid Emergence and Evolution of SARS-CoV-2 Variants in Advanced HIV Infection

Previous studies have linked the evolution of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) genetic variants to persistent infections in people with immunocompromising conditions1-4, but the evolutionary processes underlying these observations are incompletely understood. Here we used high-throughput, single-genome amplification and sequencing (HT-SGS) to obtain up to ~103 SARS-CoV-2 spike gene sequences in each of 184 respiratory samples from 22 people with HIV (PWH) and 25 people without HIV (PWOH). Twelve of 22 PWH had advanced HIV infection, defined by peripheral blood CD4 T cell counts (i.e., CD4 counts) <200 cells/μL. In PWOH and PWH with CD4 counts ≥200 cells/μL, most single-genome spike sequences in each person matched one haplotype that predominated throughout the infection. By contrast, people with advanced HIV showed elevated intra-host spike diversity with a median of 46 haplotypes per person (IQR 14-114). Higher intra-host spike diversity immediately after COVID-19 symptom onset predicted longer SARS-CoV-2 RNA shedding among PWH, and intra-host spike diversity at this timepoint was significantly higher in people with advanced HIV than in PWOH. Composition of spike sequence populations in people with advanced HIV fluctuated rapidly over time, with founder sequences often replaced by groups of new haplotypes. These population-level changes were associated with a high total burden of intra-host mutations and positive selection at functionally important residues. In several cases, delayed emergence of detectable serum binding to spike was associated with positive selection for presumptive antibody-escape mutations. Taken together, our findings show remarkable intra-host genetic diversity of SARS-CoV-2 in advanced HIV infection and suggest that adaptive intra-host SARS-CoV-2 evolution in this setting may contribute to the emergence of new variants of concern (VOCs).

Vaccination Shapes Within-Host SARS-CoV-2 Diversity of Omicron BA.2.2 Breakthrough Infection

BACKGROUND

Low-frequency intrahost single-nucleotide variants of SARS-CoV-2 have been recognized as predictive indicators of selection. However, the impact of vaccination on the intrahost evolution of SARS-CoV-2 remains uncertain at present.

METHODS

We investigated the genetic variation of SARS-CoV-2 in individuals who were unvaccinated, partially vaccinated, or fully vaccinated during Shanghai's Omicron BA.2.2 wave. We substantiated the connection between particular amino acid substitutions and immune-mediated selection through a pseudovirus neutralization assay or by cross-verification with the human leukocyte antigen-associated T-cell epitopes.

RESULTS

In contrast to those with immunologic naivety or partial vaccination, participants who were fully vaccinated had intrahost variant spectra characterized by reduced diversity. Nevertheless, the distribution of mutations in the fully vaccinated group was enriched in the spike protein. The distribution of intrahost single-nucleotide variants in individuals who were immunocompetent did not demonstrate notable signs of positive selection, in contrast to the observed adaptation in 2 participants who were immunocompromised who had an extended period of viral shedding.

CONCLUSIONS

In SARS-CoV-2 infections, vaccine-induced immunity was associated with decreased diversity of within-host variant spectra, with milder inflammatory pathophysiology. The enrichment of mutations in the spike protein gene indicates selection pressure exerted by vaccination on the evolution of SARS-CoV-2.

High Transmission Rates of Early Omicron Subvariant BA.2 in Bangkok, Thailand

The emergence of Omicron as the fifth variant of concern within the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic in late 2021, characterized by its rapid transmission and distinct spike gene mutations, underscored the pressing need for cost-effective and efficient methods to detect viral variants, especially given their evolving nature. This study sought to address this need by assessing the effectiveness of two SARS-CoV-2 variant classification platforms based on RT-PCR and mass spectrometry. The primary aim was to differentiate between Delta, Omicron BA.1, and Omicron BA.2 variants using 618 COVID-19-positive samples collected from Bangkok patients between November 2011 and March 2022. The analysis revealed that both BA.1 and BA.2 variants exhibited significantly higher transmission rates, up to 2-3 times, when compared to the Delta variant. This research presents a cost-efficient approach to virus surveillance, enabling a quantitative evaluation of variant-specific public health implications, crucial for informing and adapting public health strategies.

Deep mutational scans of XBB.1.5 and BQ.1.1 reveal ongoing epistatic drift during SARS-CoV-2 evolution

Substitutions that fix between SARS-CoV-2 variants can transform the mutational landscape of future evolution via epistasis. For example, large epistatic shifts in mutational effects caused by N501Y underlied the original emergence of Omicron, but whether such epistatic saltations continue to define ongoing SARS-CoV-2 evolution remains unclear. We conducted deep mutational scans to measure the impacts of all single amino acid mutations and single-codon deletions in the spike receptor-binding domain (RBD) on ACE2-binding affinity and protein expression in the recent Omicron BQ.1.1 and XBB.1.5 variants, and we compared mutational patterns to earlier viral strains that we have previously profiled. As with previous deep mutational scans, we find many mutations that are tolerated or even enhance binding to ACE2 receptor. The tolerance of sites to single-codon deletion largely conforms with tolerance to amino acid mutation. Though deletions in the RBD have not yet been seen in dominant lineages, we observe tolerated deletions including at positions that exhibit indel variation across broader sarbecovirus evolution and in emerging SARS-CoV-2 variants of interest, most notably the well-tolerated Δ483 deletion in BA.2.86. The substitutions that distinguish recent viral variants have not induced as dramatic of epistatic perturbations as N501Y, but we identify ongoing epistatic drift in SARS-CoV-2 variants, including interaction between R493Q reversions and mutations at positions 453, 455, and 456, including F456L that defines the XBB.1.5-derived EG.5 lineage. Our results highlight ongoing drift in the effects of mutations due to epistasis, which may continue to direct SARS-CoV-2 evolution into new regions of sequence space.

Cellular mechanisms associated with sub-optimal immune responses to SARS-CoV-2 bivalent booster vaccination in patients with Multiple Myeloma

BACKGROUND

The real-world impact of bivalent vaccines for wild type (WA.1) and Omicron variant (BA.5) is largely unknown in immunocompromised patients with Multiple Myeloma (MM). We characterize the humoral and cellular immune responses in patients with MM before and after receiving the bivalent booster, including neutralizing assays to identify patterns associated with continuing vulnerability to current variants (XBB1.16, EG5) in the current post-pandemic era.

METHODS

We studied the humoral and cellular immune responses before and after bivalent booster immunization in 48 MM patients. Spike binding IgG antibody levels were measured by SARS-CoV-2 spike binding ELISA and neutralization capacity was assessed by a SARS-CoV-2 multi-cycle microneutralization assays to assess inhibition of live virus. We measured spike specific T-cell function using the QuantiFERON SARS-CoV-2 (Qiagen) assay as well as flow-cytometry based T-cell. In a subset of 38 patients, high-dimensional flow cytometry was performed to identify immune cell subsets associated with lack of humoral antibodies.

FINDINGS

We find that bivalent vaccination provides significant boost in protection to the omicron variant in our MM patients, in a treatment specific manner. MM patients remain vulnerable to newer variants with mutations in the spike portion. Anti-CD38 and anti-BCMA therapies affect the immune machinery needed to produce antibodies.

INTERPRETATION

Our study highlights varying immune responses observed in MM patients after receiving bivalent COVID-19 vaccination. Specifically, a subgroup of MM patients undergoing anti-CD38 and anti-BCMA therapy experience impairment in immune cells such DCs, B cells, NK cells and TFH cells, leading to an inability to generate adequate humoral and cellular responses to vaccination.

FUNDING

National Cancer Institute (National Institutes of Health), National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (National Institutes of Health), NCI Serological Sciences Network for COVID-19 (SeroNet) and The Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai.

Analysis of SARS-CoV-2 mutations associated with resistance to therapeutic monoclonal antibodies that emerge after treatment

The mutation rate of the Omicron sublineage has led to baseline resistance against all previously authorized anti-Spike monoclonal antibodies (mAbs). Nevertheless, in case more antiviral mAbs will be authorized in the future, it is relevant to understand how frequently treatment-emergent resistance has emerged so far, under different combinations and in different patient subgroups. We report the results of a systematic review of the medical literature for case reports and case series for treatment-emergent immune escape, which is defined as emergence of a resistance-driving mutation in at least 20% of sequences in a given host at a given timepoint. We identified 32 publications detailing 216 cases that included different variants of concern (VOC) and found that the incidence of treatment emergent-resistance ranged from 10% to 50%. Most of the treatment-emergent resistance events occurred in immunocompromised patients. Interestingly, resistance also emerged against cocktails of two mAbs, albeit at lower frequencies. The heterogenous therapeutic management of those cases doesn't allow inferences about the clinical outcome in patients with treatment-emergent resistance. Furthermore, we noted a temporal correlation between the introduction of mAb therapies and a subsequent increase in SARS-CoV-2 sequences across the globe carrying mutations conferring resistance to that mAb, raising concern as to whether these had originated in mAb-treated individuals. Our findings confirm that treatment-emergent immune escape to anti-Spike mAbs represents a frequent and concerning phenomenon and suggests that these are associated with mAb use in immunosuppressed hosts.

A Simulation Framework for Modeling the Within-Patient Evolutionary Dynamics of SARS-CoV-2

The global impact of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has led to considerable interest in detecting novel beneficial mutations and other genomic changes that may signal the development of variants of concern (VOCs). The ability to accurately detect these changes within individual patient samples is important in enabling early detection of VOCs. Such genomic scans for rarely acting positive selection are best performed via comparison of empirical data with simulated data wherein commonly acting evolutionary factors, including mutation and recombination, reproductive and infection dynamics, and purifying and background selection, can be carefully accounted for and parameterized. Although there has been work to quantify these factors in SARS-CoV-2, they have yet to be integrated into a baseline model describing intrahost evolutionary dynamics. To construct such a baseline model, we develop a simulation framework that enables one to establish expectations for underlying levels and patterns of patient-level variation. By varying eight key parameters, we evaluated 12,096 different model-parameter combinations and compared them with existing empirical data. Of these, 592 models (∼5%) were plausible based on the resulting mean expected number of segregating variants. These plausible models shared several commonalities shedding light on intrahost SARS-CoV-2 evolutionary dynamics: severe infection bottlenecks, low levels of reproductive skew, and a distribution of fitness effects skewed toward strongly deleterious mutations. We also describe important areas of model uncertainty and highlight additional sequence data that may help to further refine a baseline model. This study lays the groundwork for the improved analysis of existing and future SARS-CoV-2 within-patient data.

Deep mutational scans of XBB.1.5 and BQ.1.1 reveal ongoing epistatic drift during SARS-CoV-2 evolution

Substitutions that fix between SARS-CoV-2 variants can transform the mutational landscape of future evolution via epistasis. For example, large epistatic shifts in mutational effects caused by N501Y underlied the original emergence of Omicron variants, but whether such large epistatic saltations continue to define ongoing SARS-CoV-2 evolution remains unclear. We conducted deep mutational scans to measure the impacts of all single amino acid mutations and single-codon deletions in the spike receptor-binding domain (RBD) on ACE2-binding affinity and protein expression in the recent Omicron BQ.1.1 and XBB.1.5 variants, and we compared mutational patterns to earlier viral strains that we have previously profiled. As with previous RBD deep mutational scans, we find many mutations that are tolerated or even enhance binding to ACE2 receptor. The tolerance of sites to single-codon deletion largely conforms with tolerance to amino acid mutation. Though deletions in the RBD have not yet been seen in dominant lineages, we observe many tolerated deletions including at positions that exhibit indel variation across broader sarbecovirus evolution and in emerging SARS-CoV-2 variants of interest, most notably the well-tolerated Δ483 deletion in BA.2.86. The substitutions that distinguish recent viral variants have not induced as dramatic of epistatic perturbations as N501Y, but we identify ongoing epistatic drift in SARS-CoV-2 variants, including interaction between R493Q reversions and mutations at positions 453, 455, and 456, including mutations like F456L that define the newly emerging EG.5 lineage. Our results highlight ongoing drift in the effects of mutations due to epistasis, which may continue to direct SARS-CoV-2 evolution into new regions of sequence space.

SARS-CoV-2 Viral Clearance and Evolution Varies by Extent of Immunodeficiency

Despite vaccination and antiviral therapies, immunocompromised individuals are at risk for prolonged SARS-CoV-2 infection, but the immune defects that predispose to persistent COVID-19 remain incompletely understood. In this study, we performed detailed viro-immunologic analyses of a prospective cohort of participants with COVID-19. The median time to nasal viral RNA and culture clearance in the severe hematologic malignancy/transplant group (S-HT) were 72 and 40 days, respectively, which were significantly longer than clearance rates in the severe autoimmune/B-cell deficient (S-A), non-severe, and non-immunocompromised groups (P<0.001). Participants who were severely immunocompromised had greater SARS-CoV-2 evolution and a higher risk of developing antiviral treatment resistance. Both S-HT and S-A participants had diminished SARS-CoV-2-specific humoral, while only the S-HT group had reduced T cell-mediated responses. This highlights the varied risk of persistent COVID-19 across immunosuppressive conditions and suggests that suppression of both B and T cell responses results in the highest contributing risk of persistent infection.

The effects of amino acid substitution of spike protein and genomic recombination on the evolution of SARS-CoV-2

Over three years' pandemic of 2019 novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19), multiple variants and novel subvariants have emerged successively, outcompeted earlier variants and become predominant. The sequential emergence of variants reflects the evolutionary process of mutation-selection-adaption of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). Amino acid substitution/insertion/deletion in the spike protein causes altered viral antigenicity, transmissibility, and pathogenicity of SARS-CoV-2. Early in the pandemic, D614G mutation conferred virus with advantages over previous variants and increased transmissibility, and it also laid a conservative background for subsequent substantial mutations. The role of genomic recombination in the evolution of SARS-CoV-2 raised increasing concern with the occurrence of novel recombinants such as Deltacron, XBB.1.5, XBB.1.9.1, and XBB.1.16 in the late phase of pandemic. Co-circulation of different variants and co-infection in immunocompromised patients accelerate the emergence of recombinants. Surveillance for SARS-CoV-2 genomic variations, particularly spike protein mutation and recombination, is essential to identify ongoing changes in the viral genome and antigenic epitopes and thus leads to the development of new vaccine strategies and interventions.

A simulation framework for modeling the within-patient evolutionary dynamics of SARS-CoV-2

The global impact of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has led to considerable interest in detecting novel beneficial mutations and other genomic changes that may signal the development of variants of concern (VOCs). The ability to accurately detect these changes within individual patient samples is important in enabling early detection of VOCs. Such genomic scans for positive selection are best performed via comparison of empirical data to simulated data wherein evolutionary factors, including mutation and recombination rates, reproductive and infection dynamics, and purifying and background selection, can be carefully accounted for and parameterized. While there has been work to quantify these factors in SARS-CoV-2, they have yet to be integrated into a baseline model describing intra-host evolutionary dynamics. To construct such a baseline model, we develop a simulation framework that enables one to establish expectations for underlying levels and patterns of patient-level variation. By varying eight key parameters, we evaluated 12,096 different model-parameter combinations and compared them to existing empirical data. Of these, 592 models (~5%) were plausible based on the resulting mean expected number of segregating variants. These plausible models shared several commonalities shedding light on intra-host SARS-CoV-2 evolutionary dynamics: severe infection bottlenecks, low levels of reproductive skew, and a distribution of fitness effects skewed towards strongly deleterious mutations. We also describe important areas of model uncertainty and highlight additional sequence data that may help to further refine a baseline model. This study lays the groundwork for the improved analysis of existing and future SARS-CoV-2 within-patient data.