Independent validation of the ICU requirement score in a cohort of acutely poisoned adults

Predicting the outcome in poisoned patients: look at the past!

INTRODUCTION

When predicting future events, we often rely on analyzing past occurrences and projecting them forward. This methodology is crucial in various fields, including toxicology, in which predicting outcomes in poisoned patients plays a vital role in guiding treatment decisions and improving patient care.

IMPORTANCE OF PREDICTING OUTCOMES IN POISONED PATIENTS

In cases of poisoning, understanding a patient's medical history, current physiological status, and the toxicokinetics of the ingested substance is essential for predicting potential outcomes and determining appropriate interventions.

WHAT TO PREDICT?

Predicting whether an intoxicated patient needs (further) treatment or even admission to the hospital is one of the most difficult decisions a clinician needs to make. The prediction of the course of an intoxication often lacks crucial information, leaving physicians with a sense of uncertainty in treating and advising patients. A significant source of this uncertainty stems from patients' limited awareness of the specific chemical(s) causing their symptoms, making a targeted approach challenging. Adding to the complexity, both patients and physicians frequently lack knowledge of the exposure dose, onset time, and potential interactions, further complicating the prediction of symptom progression. Patients are commonly placed in observation wards until the pharmacodynamic effects have diminished, leading to extended observation periods and unnecessary healthcare utilization and costs. Therefore, a key objective of a predictive model is to determine the necessity for intensive care unit admission.

PREDICTING THE REQUIREMENT FOR ADMISSION TO AN INTENSIVE CARE UNIT

Factors such as age, Glasgow Coma Scale, and specific comorbidities like dysrhythmias and chronic respiratory insufficiency significantly influence the likelihood of intensive care unit admission. By examining a patient's trajectory based on past medical history and organ function deterioration, clinicians can better anticipate the need for critical care support.

ENHANCING PREDICTION MODELS FOR IMPROVED PATIENT CARE

To enhance prediction models, leveraging modern methodologies like machine learning on large datasets (big data) are crucial. These advanced techniques can uncover previously unknown patient groups with similar outcomes or treatment responses, leading to more personalized and effective interventions. Regular updates to clustering, discrimination, and calibration processes ensure that predictive models remain accurate and relevant as new data emerges.

CONCLUSIONS

The field of clinical toxicology stands to benefit greatly from the creation and integration of large datasets to advance toxicological prognostication. By embracing innovative approaches and incorporating diverse data sources, clinicians can enhance their ability to predict outcomes in poisoned patients and improve overall patient management strategies.

Determinants of Admission to Critical Care Following Acute Recreational Drug Toxicity: A Euro-DEN Plus Study

This study aimed to characterize patients admitted to critical care following Emergency Department (ED) presentation with acute recreational drug toxicity and to identify determinants of admission to critical care. A retrospective multicenter matched case-control study was conducted by the European Drug Emergency Network Plus (Euro-DEN Plus) over the period 2014-2021. The cases were ED presentations with acute recreational drug toxicity admitted to critical care, the controls consisted of ED presentations with acute recreational drug toxicity medically discharged directly from the ED. The potential determinants of admission to critical care were assessed through multivariable conditional stepwise logistic regression analysis and multiple imputation was used to account for the missing data. From 2014 to 2021, 3448 Euro-DEN Plus presentations involved patients admitted to critical care (76.9% males; mean age 33.2 years; SD 10.9 years). Patient age ≥35 years (as compared to ≤18 years) was a determinant of admission to critical care following acute recreational drug toxicity (adjusted odds ratio, aOR, 1.51, 95% confidence interval, CI, 1.15-1.99), along with polydrug use (aOR 1.39, 95% CI 1.22-1.59), ethanol co-ingestion (aOR 1.44, 95% CI 1.26-1.64), and the use of gamma-hydroxybutyrate/gamma-butyrolactone (GHB/GBL, aOR 3.08, 95% CI 2.66-3.57). Conversely, lower odds of admission to critical care were associated with the use of cocaine (aOR 0.85, 95% CI 0.74-0.99), cannabis (aOR 0.44, 95% CI 0.37-0.52), heroin (aOR 0.80, 95% CI 0.69-0.93), and amphetamine (aOR 0.65, 95% CI 0.54-0.78), as was the arrival to the ED during the night (8 p.m.-8 a.m., aOR 0.88, 95% CI 0.79-0.98). These findings, which deserve confirmation and further investigation, could contribute to a more complete understanding of the decision-making process underlying the admission to critical care of patients with acute recreational drug toxicity.

Independent validation of the Tanta University Risk Model for intensive care requirement in acutely poisoned adults

OBJECTIVE

To independently validate the predictive value of the Tanta University Risk Model for intensive care requirement in unselected poisoned patients.

METHOD

Retrospective chart review of 293 poisoned patients. The Tanta University Risk Model was calculated as follows: Tanta University Risk Model = -1.966*Glasgow Coma Scale - 0.329*oxygen saturation - 0.212*diastolic blood pressure + 0.27*respiratory rate - 0.33*standard bicarbonate. It was then compared to a composite endpoint indicating an intensive care unit requirement (death in hospital, vasopressors, need for intubation).

RESULTS

Nineteen of 293 patients had a complicated clinical course as defined by meeting the primary endpoint definition. Receiver operating characteristic analysis revealed the area under the curve to be 0.79 (95% confidence interval 0.73-0.83). A positive Tanta University Risk Model was defined >-73.46. Fifteen out of 84 patients with a positive Tanta University Risk Model had a complicated course, while four of 209 patients with a negative Tanta University risk model had a complicated course (P<0.0001, Fisher's exact test). The negative predictive value of the Tanta University Risk Model was 0.98 (95% confidence interval 0.95-0.99), the sensitivity was 0.79 and that specificity was 0.75.

CONCLUSION

Poisoned patients with a negative Tanta University Risk Model score are unlikely to need an intensive care unit level of care.

Severity of emergency department presentations due to acute drug toxicity in Europe: a longitudinal analysis over a 6-year period (2014-2019) stratified by sex

OBJECTIVE

To investigate whether the severity of acute recreation drug toxicity presentations to emergency departments (EDs) in Europe has changed in recent years and to uncover potential sex differences.

DESIGN

We analysed presentations to 36 EDs in 24 European countries relating to acute recreational drug toxicity, with separate analysis for presentations involving lone use of cannabis, cocaine, and heroin. As severity markers, we calculated rates of hospitalization, admission to ICU, intubation, and death by annual quarters between 2014 and 2019. Trends on severity over time were estimated by logistic regression. Differences between men and women were assessed by interaction. Sensitivity analysis was performed including only EDs that provided data for all 24 quarters. Analyses of intoxications taken altogether were adjusted by age and sex, while of lone intoxications being also adjusted by ethanol co-ingestion.

RESULTS

There were 43 633 presentations (median age = 31 years, interquartile range = 25-40 years, men = 76.5%) resulting in 10 344 hospitalizations (23.9%), 2568 ICU admissions (5.9%), 1391 intubations (3.2%), and 171 deaths (0.39%). Hospitalization, ICU admission and death did not differ by sex, but intubation was more frequent in men (3.4% vs. 2.3%, P < 0.001). No significant changes in the severity of drug intoxications over time were found when considered altogether, neither for lone cannabis (n = 4264) nor cocaine (n = 3562). Conversely, significant increases in hospitalization [odds ratios (OR) = 1.023, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.004-1.041], ICU admission (OR = 1.080, 95% CI = 1.042-1.118) and in intubation (OR = 1.049, 95% CI = 1.001-1.099) were detected for lone heroin presentations (n = 1997). Sensitivity analysis (32 245 presentations, 14 EDs, 9 countries) confirmed the overall absence of changes in severity markers (except for death rate, which significantly decreased by quarter: OR = 0.968, 95% CI = 0.943-0.994). Additionally, it suggested an increased risk over time of intubation for cocaine (OR = 1.068, 95% CI = 1.009-1.130) and confirmed the increased risk of ICU admission for heroin (OR = 1.058, 95% CI = 1.013-1.105). Changes in severity over time did not differ according to sex in the main analysis of the whole cohort, while a significantly higher decrease in risk of death in men was found in the sensitivity analysis (OR = 0.894, 95% CI = 0.825-969 vs. OR = 0.949, 95% CI = 0.860-1.048; P interaction = 0.042).

CONCLUSIONS

The severity of presentations to European EDs remained mainly unchanged during 2014-2019, but the risk of death may have decreased. Conversely, intubation in lone cocaine and ICU admission in lone heroin intoxications have increased. Although men and women exhibited a similar pattern over the period for the majority of comparisons, our data suggest that women exhibited a smaller decrease of the overall risk of death.

Does the ICU Requirement Score allow the poisoned patient to be safely managed without admission to the intensive care unit? - a validation cohort study

BACKGROUND

The Intensive care unit (ICU) Requirement Score (IRS) has been defined as identifying poisoned patients on hospital admission who do not require ICU referral, in an effort to reduce health expenses. However, this score has been poorly validated. We aimed to evaluate the IRS in a large cohort of poisoned patients.

METHODS

We performed a single-center retrospective cohort study. IRS was calculated using clinical parameters obtained on admission including age, systolic blood pressure, heart rate, Glasgow coma score, intoxication type, co-morbidities (i.e., arrhythmia, cirrhosis, and respiratory insufficiency), and the combination of the intoxication with another reason for ICU admission. We evaluated the ability of IRS < 6 determined on admission to predict the lack of need for ICU treatment, defined as the need for mechanical ventilation, vasopressors, and/or renal replacement therapy in the first 24 h post-admission and/or death during the hospital stay. This score was compared to the usual prognostic scores, i.e., SAPS II and III, SOFA score, and PSS.

RESULTS

During the 10-year study period, 2,514 poisoned patients were admitted, 1,011 excluded as requiring ICU treatment on admission, and 1,503 included. Among these patients, 232 met the endpoint whereas only 23/510 patients with IRS < 6 (4.5%) presented the endpoint and one patient died. The area under the curve of the IRS ROC curve was 0.736 (95% confidence interval (CI), 0.702-0.770). The negative predictive value of IRS < 6 was 95% (95% CI, 93-97), sensitivity 89% (95% CI, 85-93), specificity 38% (95% CI, 36-41), and positive predictive value 21% (95% CI, 18-24). IRS performance was similar to those of the other tested scores, which are however not readily available on admission.

CONCLUSION

Our data demonstrate the excellent negative predictive value of the IRS, allowing the exclusion of ICU requirements for poisoned patients with IRS < 6. IRS usefulness should be confirmed based on a prospective multicenter cohort study before extensive routine use.

Development of a risk prediction nomogram for disposition of acute toxic exposure patients to intensive care unit

Early risk stratification of acutely poisoned patients is essential to identify patients at high risk of intensive care unit (ICU) admission. We aimed to develop a prognostic model and risk-stratification nomogram based on the readily accessible clinical and laboratory predictors on admission for the probability of ICU admission in acutely poisoned patients. This retrospective cohort study included adult patients with acute toxic exposure to a drug or a chemical substance. Patients' demographic, toxicologic, clinical and laboratory data were collected. Among the 1260 eligible patients, 180 (14.3%) were admitted to the ICU. We developed a generalized prognostic model for predicting ICU admission in patients with acute poisoning. The predictors included the Glasgow coma scale, oxygen saturation, diastolic blood pressure, respiratory rate and blood bicarbonate concentration. The model displayed excellent discrimination and calibration (optimistic-adjusted area under the curve = 0.924 and optimistic-adjusted Hosmer and Lemeshow test = 0.922, respectively) when internally validated. Additionally, we developed prognostic models that determine ICU admission in patients with specific poisonings. Furthermore, we constructed risk-stratification nomograms that rank the probability of ICU admission in these patients. The developed risk-stratification nomograms help decision-making regarding ICU admission in acute poisonings. Future external validation in independent cohorts is necessary before clinical application.

The management of the poisoned patient using a novel emergency department-based resuscitation and critical care unit (ResCCU)

OBJECTIVES

The Resuscitation & Critical Care Unit (ResCCU) is a novel ED-based ICU designed to provide early critical care services. This study sought to identify characteristics of poisoned patients treated in the ResCCU.

METHODS

We conducted a retrospective, single-center case study of poisoned patients over the age of 18 years old over a 16-month period. Patient demographics, drug concentrations, and severity of illness scores were extracted from electronic medical records. Patients were divided into two groups, those who required short term ICU level care (< 24 h) and prolonged ICU care (> 24 h).

RESULTS

A total of 58 ED visits with a tox-related illness were analyzed. There were 24 women (41%) and 34 men (59%). There were 42 patients (72%) who required short term ICU level care and 16 patients (28%) who required prolonged ICU care. In the short-term ICU group, 13 patients (31%) were discharged home directly from the ResCCU, 29 patients (69%) were sent to the inpatient floor, and 1 of the admitted floor patients expired. There were no patients admitted to the floor that required a step-up to the inpatient ICU. 56 patients (97%) were alive at post-admit day 7 and 28, and only 8 (14%) were re-admitted within 30 days.

CONCLUSIONS

Patients who were treated in the ED-based ICU for toxicology-related illnesses were frequently able to be either discharged home or admitted to a regular floor after their initial stabilization and treatment, and none that were sent to the floor required an ICU step-up.

The healthcare costs of intoxicated patients who survive ICU admission are higher than non-intoxicated ICU patients: a retrospective study combining healthcare insurance data and data from a Dutch national quality registry

Background

The aim of this study was to describe the healthcare costs of intoxicated ICU patients in the year before and the year after ICU admission, and to compare their healthcare costs with non-intoxicated ICU patients and a population based control group.

Methods

We conducted a retrospective cohort study, combining a national health insurance claims database and a national quality registry database for ICUs. Claims data in the timeframe 2012 until 2014 were combined with the clinical data of patients who had been admitted to an ICU during 2013. Three study populations were compared and matched according to socioeconomic status, type of admission, age and gender: an “ICU population”, an “intoxication population” and a “control population” (who had never been on the ICU).

Results

2591 individual “intoxicated ICU patients” were compared to 2577 general “ICU patients” and 2591 patients from the “control population”. The median and interquartile ranges (IQR) healthcare costs per day alive for the “intoxicated ICU patients” were higher during the year before ICU admission (€20.3 (IQR €3.6–€76.4)) and the year after ICU admission (€23.9 (IQR €5.1–€82.4)) compared to the ICU population (€6.1 (IQR €0.9–€29.3) and €13.6 (IQR €3.3–€54.9) respectively) and a general control population (€1.1 (IQR €0.3–€4.6) and €1.1 (IQR €0.4–€4.9) respectively). The healthcare associated costs in intoxicated ICU patients were correlated with the number of chronic conditions present prior ICU admission (p < 0.0001).

Conclusions

Intoxicated patients admitted to the ICU had in the year before and after ICU admission much higher median healthcare costs per day alive compared to other ICU patients and a general population control group. Healthcare costs are greatly influenced by the number of psychiatric and other chronic conditions of these intoxicated patients.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s12873-019-0224-7) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.