Arterial pH, bicarbonate levels and base deficit at presentation as markers of predicting mortality in acute pancreatitis: a single-centre prospective study

Predicting Persistent Acute Respiratory Failure in Acute Pancreatitis: The Accuracy of Two Lung Injury Indices

BACKGROUND/AIMS

Early and accurate identification of patients with acute pancreatitis (AP) at high risk of persistent acute respiratory failure (PARF) is crucial. We sought to determine the accuracy of simplified Lung Injury Prediction Score (sLIPS) and simplified Early Acute Lung Injury (sEALI) for predicting PARF in ward AP patients.

METHODS

Consecutive AP patients in a training cohort from West China Hospital of Sichuan University (n = 912) and a validation cohort from The First Affiliated Hospital of Nanchang University (n = 1033) were analyzed. PARF was defined as oxygen in arterial blood/fraction of inspired oxygen < 300 mmHg that lasts for > 48 h. The sLIPS was composed by shock (predisposing condition), alcohol abuse, obesity, high respiratory rate, low oxygen saturation, high oxygen requirement, hypoalbuminemia, and acidosis (risk modifiers). The sEALI was calculated from oxygen 2 to 6 L/min, oxygen > 6 L/min, and high respiratory rate. Both indices were calculated on admission.

RESULTS

PARF developed in 16% (145/912) and 22% (228/1033) (22%) of the training and validation cohorts, respectively. In these patients, sLIPS and sEALI were significantly increased. sLIPS ≥ 2 predicted PARF in the training (AUROC 0.87, 95% CI 0.84-0.89) and validation (AUROC 0.81, 95% CI 0.78-0.83) cohorts. sLIPS was significantly more accurate than sEALI and current clinical scoring systems in both cohorts (all P < 0.05).

CONCLUSIONS

Using routinely available clinical data, the sLIPS can accurately predict PARF in ward AP patients and outperforms the sEALI and current existing clinical scoring systems.

A Rapid Prognostic Score Based on Bedside Arterial Blood Gas Analysis (ABG) Established for Predicting 60-Day Adverse Outcomes in Patients with Acute Pancreatitis in the Emergency Department

Objective

To establish a rapid and concise prognosis scoring system for pancreatitis in the emergency department based on bedside arterial blood gas analysis (ABG).

Methods

A single-center, retrospective cohort study was used to establish the new scoring system, and a validation group was used to verify it. The primary endpoint was 60-day death, and secondary endpoints were 28-day death, admission to the intensive care unit (AICU), requirement for mechanical ventilation (MV) and persistent organ failure (POF). Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves was drawn to validate the predictive value of the new scoring system. The performance of the new scoring system was compared with that of conventional predictive scoring.

Results

443 patients were in the derivation group and 217 patients in the validation group, of which 27 and 25 died during follow-up. A total of 443 patients in the derivation group, 27 of whom died during the follow-up period. Multivariate regression analysis showed that mental status, hematocrit (HCT), base excess (BE) and Serum ionic calcium (Ca²⁺) were independent risk factors for 60-day mortality of pancreatitis, and they were used to create a new scoring system (MHBC). In the derivation and validation, the ability of MHBC (AUC= 0.922, 0.773, respectively) to predict 60-day mortality from pancreatitis was no less than that of APACHE II (AUC= 0.838, 0.748, respectively) and BISAP (AUC= 0.791, 0.750, respectively), while, MHBC is more quickly and concisely than APACHE II and BISAP. Compared with MHBC less than or equal to 2, when MHBC is greater than 2, the 28-day mortality, 60-day mortality and the incidence of AICU, MV and POF increased significantly (P <0.001).

Conclusion

The MHBC can quickly and concisely evaluate the 60-day mortality, 28-day mortality, and the incidence of AICU, MV and POF of patients with acute pancreatitis in the emergency department.

Calcium and pH value might predict persistent renal failure in acute pancreatitis in the early phase

OBJECTIVES

Persistent renal failure (PRF) increases morbidity and mortality in acute pancreatitis (AP). Traditional scoring systems achieve good diagnostic value of AP but not PRF alone. Our study aimed to determine PRF predictors in AP patients for early intervention in the disease development.

METHODS

In the prospective observational study, we consecutively recruited AP patients from October 2013 to October 2016. Complete clinical characteristics on admission were collected. The 2012 revision of the Atlanta classification diagnosed AP, and the Modified Marshall scoring system defined organ failures. We used univariate and multivariate analyses to select risk factors, and plotted survival curves of different groups and ROC curves of parameters to analyze PRF predictors in AP.

RESULTS

A total of 29 AP patients with PRF and 280 AP patients without PRF were included. Severity scoring and ICU admission rate were higher in the former group. The PRF group's mortality was 10-fold higher than without PRF (20.7% versus 2.1%, p < .001). Most relevant kidney metabolism indicators and excretion have significant differences (p < .05) between the two groups. Serum calcium (Ca) and pH value (pH) were independent risk factors of PRF (p < .05). ROC curve analysis indicated Ca and pH might predict PRF in AP with areas under the curves (AUCs) of 0.758 and 0.809.

CONCLUSIONS

AP patients with PRF had higher morbidity and mortality rate. Our study showed that Ca < 1.94 mmol/L and pH < 7.37 when patients on admission could be used to predict PRF in AP.

Effects of Mean Artery Pressure and Blood pH on Survival Rate of Patients with Acute Kidney Injury Combined with Acute Hypoxic Respiratory Failure: A Retrospective Study

Background and Objectives: In the intensive care unit (ICU), renal failure and respiratory failure are two of the most common organ failures in patients with systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS). These clinical symptoms usually result from sepsis, trauma, hypermetabolism or shock. If this syndrome is caused by septic shock, the Surviving Sepsis Campaign Bundle suggests that vasopressin be given to maintain mean arterial pressure (MAP) > 65 mmHg if the patient is hypotensive after fluid resuscitation. Nevertheless, it is important to note that some studies found an effect of various mean arterial pressures on organ function; for example, a MAP of less than 75 mmHg was associated with the risk of acute kidney injury (AKI). However, no published study has evaluated the risk factors of mortality in the subgroup of acute kidney injury with respiratory failure, and little is known of the impact of general risk factors that may increase the mortality rate. Materials and Methods: The objective of this study was to determine the risk factors that might directly affect survival in critically ill patients with multiple organ failure in this subgroup. We retrospectively constructed a cohort study of patients who were admitted to the ICUs, including medical, surgical, and neurological, over 24 months (2015.1 to 2016.12) at Chiayi Chang Gung Memorial Hospital. We only considered patients who met the criteria of acute renal injury according to the Acute Kidney Injury Network (AKIN) and were undergoing mechanical ventilator support due to acute respiratory failure at admission. Results: Data showed that the overall ICU and hospital mortality rate was 63.5%. The most common cause of ICU admission in this cohort study was cardiovascular disease (31.7%) followed by respiratory disease (28.6%). Most patients (73%) suffered sepsis during their ICU admission and the mean length of hospital stay was 24.32 ± 25.73 days. In general, the factors independently associated with in-hospital mortality were lactate > 51.8 mg/dL, MAP ≤ 77.16 mmHg, and pH ≤ 7.22. The risk of in-patient mortality was analyzed using a multivariable Cox regression survival model. Adjusting for other covariates, MAP ≤ 77.16 mmHg was associated with higher probability of in-hospital death [OR = 3.06 (1.374–6.853), p = 0.006]. The other independent outcome predictor of mortality was pH ≤ 7.22 [OR = 2.40 (1.122–5.147), p = 0.024]. Kaplan-Meier survival curves were calculated and the log rank statistic was highly significant. Conclusions: Acute kidney injury combined with respiratory failure is associated with high mortality. High mean arterial pressure and normal blood pH might improve these outcomes. Therefore, the acid–base status and MAP should be considered when attempting to predict outcome. Moreover, the blood pressure targets for acute kidney injury in critical care should not be similar to those recommended for the general population and might prevent mortality.

Prediction of in-hospital mortality of Clostriodiodes difficile infection using critical care database: a big data-driven, machine learning approach

RESEARCH OBJECTIVES

Clostriodiodes difficile infection (CDI) is a major cause of healthcare-associated diarrhoea with high mortality. There is a lack of validated predictors for severe outcomes in CDI. The aim of this study is to derive and validate a clinical prediction tool for CDI in-hospital mortality using a large critical care database.

METHODOLOGY

The demographics, clinical parameters, laboratory results and mortality of CDI were extracted from the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care-III (MIMIC-III) database. We subsequently trained three machine learning models: logistic regression (LR), random forest (RF) and gradient boosting machine (GBM) to predict in-hospital mortality. The individual performances of the models were compared against current severity scores (Clostridiodes difficile Associated Risk of Death Score (CARDS) and ATLAS (Age, Treatment with systemic antibiotics, leukocyte count, Albumin and Serum creatinine as a measure of renal function) by calculating area under receiver operating curve (AUROC). We identified factors associated with higher mortality risk in each model.

SUMMARY OF RESULTS

From 61 532 intensive care unit stays in the MIMIC-III database, there were 1315 CDI cases. The mortality rate for CDI in the study cohort was 18.33%. AUROC was 0.69 (95% CI, 0.60 to 0.76) for LR, 0.71 (95% CI, 0.62 to 0.77) for RF and 0.72 (95% CI, 0.64 to 0.78) for GBM, while previously AUROC was 0.57 (95% CI, 0.51 to 0.65) for CARDS and 0.63 (95% CI, 0.54 to 0.70) for ATLAS. Albumin, lactate and bicarbonate were significant mortality factors for all the models. Free calcium, potassium, white blood cell, urea, platelet and mean blood pressure were present in at least two of the three models.

CONCLUSION

Our machine learning derived CDI in-hospital mortality prediction model identified pertinent factors that can assist critical care clinicians in identifying patients at high risk of dying from CDI.

The challenge of prognostic markers in acute pancreatitis: internist's point of view

Acute pancreatitis, the most frequent hospitalization reason in internal medicine ward among gastrointestinal diseases, is burdened by high mortality rate. The disease manifests mainly in a mild form, but about 20-30% patients have a severe progress that requires intensive care. Patients presenting with acute pancreatitis should be clinically evaluated for organ failure signs and symptoms. Stratifying patients in the first days from symptoms onset is essential to determine therapy and care setting. The aim of our study is to evaluate prognostic factors for acute pancreatitis patients, hospitalized in internal medicine wards, and moreover, understanding the role of various prognostic scores validated in intensive care setting in predicting in-hospital mortality and/or admission to intensive care unit. We conducted a retrospective study enrolling all patients with diagnosis of acute pancreatitis admitted took an internal medicine ward between January 2013 and May 2019. Adverse outcome was considered in-hospital mortality and/or admission to intensive care unit. In total, 146 patients (137 with positive outcome and 9 with adverse outcome) were enrolled. The median age was (67.89 ± 16.44), with a slight prevalence of male (55.1%) compared to female (44.9%). C protein reactive (p = 0.02), creatinine (p = 0.01), sodium (p = 0.05), and troponin I (p = 0.013) after 48 h were significantly increased in patients with adverse outcome. In our study, progression in SOFA score independently increases the probability of adverse outcome in patients hospitalized with acute pancreatitis. SOFA score > 5 is highly predictive of in-hospital mortality (O.R. 32.00; C.I. 6.73-152.5; p = 0.001) compared to other scores. The use of an easy tool, validated in intensive care setting such as SOFA score, might help to better stratify the risk of in-hospital mortality and/or clinical worsening in patients hospitalized with acute pancreatitis in internal medicine ward.

Pulmonary complications in dogs with acute presentation of pancreatitis

Background

In humans, respiratory complications in patients with acute pancreatitis (AP) are a common life-threatening comorbidity. Since possible lung impairment has not been individually evaluated in canine AP, the aims of the present study were to: (1) describe the prevalence, types and severity of pulmonary complications in dogs with acute presentation of AP, and (2) evaluate their association with mortality. AP diagnosis was based on compatible clinical and laboratory parameters, abnormal canine pancreatic-lipase test, and positive abdominal ultrasound within 48 h from admission. The canine acute pancreatitis severity score (CAPS) was calculated for each dog at admission. Arterial blood gas analysis and thoracic radiography were performed at admission. Thoracic radiography was classified on the basis of pulmonary pattern (normal, interstitial or alveolar) and a modified lung injury score (mLIS) was applied to the ventrodorsal projections for each dog. VetALI/VetARDS were diagnosed using current veterinary consensus. Dogs were divided into non-survivors or survivors (hospital discharge). Clinical, radiological and blood gas parameters collected at presentation were compared between survivors and non-survivors and associated with mortality.

Results

This prospective cohort study included twenty-six client-owned dogs with AP. Twelve out of twenty-six dogs (46%) died or were euthanized. At admission, thirteen dogs showed respiratory distress at physical examination, which was associated with death (P < 0.001). Radiographic abnormalities were found in twenty-one dogs: alveolar (n = 11) and interstitial pattern (n = 10). Radiographic alterations and mLIS score were both associated with death (P = 0.02 and P = 0.0023). The results of the arterial blood-gas evaluation showed that non-survivors had lower PaCO₂ and HCO₃⁻ levels, and higher A-a gradient than survivors (P = 0.0014, P = 0.019 and P = 0.004, respectively). Specifically, three dogs had aspiration pneumonia, and VetALI was diagnosed in nine dogs (34.6%), and no dogs met the criteria for VetARDS. The presence of VetALI was associated with mortality (P < 0.001).

Conclusions

As with humans, possible lung impairments, such as VetALI, should be investigated in dogs with acute presentation of pancreatitis.

Pre-treatment serum bicarbonate predicts for primary tumor control after stereotactic body radiation therapy in patients with localized non-small cell lung cancer

BACKGROUND

Tumor aggressiveness and hypoxia are linked to acidosis in the tumor microenvironment (TME). We hypothesized that low pre-treatment serum bicarbonate, potentially correlating with an acidic and hypoxic TME, predicts for poor outcomes after stereotactic body radiation therapy (SBRT) for non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC).

METHODS

We included patients with localized NSCLC treated to a biologically effective dose (BED) ≥ 100 Gy, with available pre-treatment bicarbonate values within 3 months of treatment. We used receiver operating characteristic analysis to determine the bicarbonate concentration optimally predicting for primary tumor recurrence, and evaluated its association with recurrence and survival. We validated our findings in an independent cohort of patients from three collaborating institutions.

RESULTS

A total of 110 patients and 114 tumors were included in the training cohort, with median follow-up of 15.0 months. Bicarbonate < 26 mEq/L was associated with primary tumor recurrence on univariate (HR = 5.92; 95% CI 1.69-24.88; p = 0.005) and multivariate analysis (HR = 5.48; 95% CI 1.37-25.19; p = 0.020). The validation cohort consisted of 195 patients and 208 tumors with median follow-up of 27.5 months. In the validation cohort, bicarbonate < 26 mEq/L was again associated with primary tumor recurrence on univariate (HR = 3.38; 95% CI 1.27-9.37; p = 0.015) and multivariate analysis (HR = 3.33; 1.18-10.07; p = 0.023).

CONCLUSIONS

Pre-treatment bicarbonate predicts for primary tumor control in NSCLC treated with SBRT and may be useful for risk stratification. These findings should be confirmed prospectively.

Bidirectional Relationship Between Reduced Blood pH and Acute Pancreatitis: A Translational Study of Their Noxious Combination

Acute pancreatitis (AP) is often accompanied by alterations in the acid-base balance, but how blood pH influences the outcome of AP is largely unknown. We studied the association between blood pH and the outcome of AP with meta-analysis of clinical trials, and aimed to discover the causative relationship between blood pH and AP in animal models. PubMed, EMBASE, and Cochrane Controlled Trials Registry databases were searched from inception to January 2017. Human studies reporting systemic pH status and outcomes (mortality rate, severity scores, and length of hospital stay) of patient groups with AP were included in the analyses. We developed a new mouse model of chronic metabolic acidosis (MA) and induced mild or severe AP in the mice. Besides laboratory blood testing, the extent of pancreatic edema, necrosis, and leukocyte infiltration were assessed in tissue sections of the mice. Thirteen studies reported sufficient data in patient groups with AP (n = 2,311). Meta-analysis revealed markedly higher mortality, elevated severity scores, and longer hospital stay in AP patients with lower blood pH or base excess (P < 0.001 for all studied outcomes). Meta-regression analysis showed significant negative correlation between blood pH and mortality in severe AP. In our mouse model, pre-existing MA deteriorated the pancreatic damage in mild and severe AP and, vice versa, severe AP further decreased the blood pH of mice with MA. In conclusion, MA worsens the outcome of AP, while severe AP augments the decrease of blood pH. The discovery of this vicious metabolic cycle opens up new therapeutic possibilities in AP.

Ringer's lactate versus normal saline in acute pancreatitis: A systematic review and meta-analysis

OBJECTIVE

Aggressive i.v. hydration with crystalloids is the first step in managing acute pancreatitis (AP) and is associated with improved survival. Guidelines about the choice of crystalloids to use are unclear. This systematic review and meta-analysis was aimed to discern whether the choice of fluids in managing pancreatitis was associated with patients' outcomes.

METHODS

A comprehensive literature review was conducted by searching the Embase, MEDLINE, PubMed and Google Scholar databases to December 2017 to identify all studies that compared normal saline (NS) with Ringer's lactate (RL) for managing AP. The characteristics of the participants, outcome measurements (including mortality, the development of systemic inflammatory response syndrome [SIRS] on admission and at 24 h, and pancreatic necrosis) were analyzed.

RESULTS

Five studies (three randomized controlled trials and two retrospective cohort studies) with 428 patients were included in this analysis. Mortality trended lower in the RL group but this was not statistically significant (pooled odds ratio [OR] 0.61, 95% CI 0.28-1.29, P = 0.20). Patients in the RL group had significantly decreased odds of developing SIRS at 24 h (pooled OR 0.38, 95% CI 0.15-0.98, P = 0.05).

CONCLUSIONS

RL has anti-inflammatory effects and is associated with decreased odds of persistent SIRS at 24 h, which is a marker of severe disease in AP patients. Although mortality trended lower in the RL group this did not achieve statistical significance and hence larger randomized controlled trials are needed to evaluate this association.

Prognostic significance of differentiating necrosis from fluid collection on endoscopic ultrasound in patients with presumed isolated extrapancreatic necrosis

Background

Extrapancreatic necrosis is diagnosed on computed tomography (CT) as extrapancreatic changes that are more than fat stranding; both fluid collections and necrosis would have a similar appearance. The aim of this study was to determine the prognostic significance of differentiating peripancreatic necrosis from fluid collection on endoscopic ultrasound (EUS) in patients with presumed isolated extrapancreatic necrosis.

Methods

We carried out a retrospective analysis of prospectively collected data from 36 patients (25 males; age range 19-65 years) with acute pancreatitis (AP) and isolated extrapancreatic necrosis. On EUS, peripancreatic anechoic areas were labeled as peripancreatic fluid collections and peripancreatic heterogeneously echotextured areas as peripancreatic necrosis.

Results

The etiology of AP was alcohol in 16 (44.4%) patients, gallstone disease in 13 (36.1%), and other in 7 (19.4%). On EUS, 25 (69.4%) patients had peripancreatic necrosis and 11 (30.6%) patients had peripancreatic fluid collections. Compared with patients who had peripancreatic fluid collections, patients with peripancreatic necrosis had a significantly higher frequency of pleural effusion (88% vs. 55%; P=0.04), organ failure (OF) (68% vs. 27%; P=0.03), and persistent OF (48% vs. 9%; P=0.03). The patients with peripancreatic necrosis also had a higher frequency of ascites (20% vs. 9%), need for intervention (20% vs. nil), surgery (8% vs. nil) and mortality (8% vs. nil), but these differences were not statistically significant.

Conclusion

Isolated extrapancreatic necrosis on contrast-enhanced CT comprises a heterogeneous group, with patients who show peripancreatic fluid collections on EUS having a less severe disease course compared to patients with peripancreatic necrosis.

Elevated Admission Base Deficit Is Associated with a Complex Dynamic Network of Systemic Inflammation Which Drives Clinical Trajectories in Blunt Trauma Patients

We hypothesized that elevated base deficit (BD) ≥ 4 mEq/L upon admission could be associated with an altered inflammatory response, which in turn may impact differential clinical trajectories. Using clinical and biobank data from 472 blunt trauma survivors, 154 patients were identified after excluding patients who received prehospital IV fluids or had alcohol intoxication. From this subcohort, 84 patients had a BD ≥ 4 mEq/L and 70 patients with BD < 4 mEq/L. Three samples within the first 24 h were obtained from all patients and then daily up to day 7 after injury. Twenty-two cytokines and chemokines were assayed using Luminex™ and were analyzed using two-way ANOVA and dynamic network analysis (DyNA). Multiple mediators of the innate and lymphoid immune responses in the BD ≥ 4 group were elevated differentially upon admission and up to 16 h after injury. DyNA revealed a higher, sustained degree of interconnectivity of the inflammatory response in the BD ≥ 4 patients during the initial 16 h after injury. These results suggest that elevated admission BD is associated with differential immune/inflammatory pathways, which subsequently could predispose patients to follow a complicated clinical course.

Waterlow score as a surrogate marker for predicting adverse outcome in acute pancreatitis

Introduction Introduced originally to stratify risk for developing decubitus ulcers, the Waterlow scoring system is recorded routinely for surgical admissions. It is a composite score, reflecting patients' general condition and co-morbidities. The aim of this study was to investigate whether the Waterlow score can be used as an independent surrogate marker to predict severity and adverse outcome in acute pancreatitis. Methods In this retrospective analysis, a consecutive cohort was studied of 250 patients presenting with acute pancreatitis, all of whom had their Waterlow score calculated on admission. Primary outcome measures were length of hospital stay and mortality. Secondary outcome measures included rate of intensive care unit (ICU) admission and development of complications such as peripancreatic free fluid, pancreatic necrosis and pseudocyst formation. Correlation of the Waterlow score with some known markers of disease severity and outcomes was also analysed. Results The Waterlow score correlated strongly with the most commonly used marker of disease severity, the Glasgow score (analysis of variance, p=0.0012). Inpatient mortality, rate of ICU admission and length of hospital stay increased with a higher Waterlow score (Mann-Whitney U test, p=0.0007, p=0.049 and p=0.0002 respectively). There was, however, no significant association between the Waterlow score and the incidence of three known complications of pancreatitis: presence of peripancreatic fluid, pancreatic pseudocyst formation and pancreatic necrosis. Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis demonstrated good predictive power of the Waterlow score for mortality (area under the curve [AUC]: 0.73), ICU admission (AUC: 0.65) and length of stay >7 days (AUC: 0.64). This is comparable with the predictive power of the Glasgow score and C-reactive protein. Conclusions The Waterlow score for patients admitted with acute pancreatitis could provide a useful tool in prospective assessment of disease severity, help clinicians with appropriate resource management and inform patients.

Fluid resuscitation in acute pancreatitis: Normal saline or lactated Ringer's solution?

AIM: To investigate whether administration of Ringer’s solution (RL) could have an impact on the outcome of acute pancreatitis (AP).

METHODS: We conducted a retrospective study on 103 patients [68 men and 35 women, mean age 51.2 years (range, 19-92 years)] hospitalized between 2011 and 2012. All patients admitted to the Department of Gastroenterology of the Central Clinical Hospital of the Ministry of Interior (Poland) with a diagnosis of AP who had disease onset within 48 h of presentation were included in this study. Based on the presence of persistent organ failure (longer than 48 h) as a criterion for the diagnosis of severe AP (SAP) and the presence of local complications [diagnosis of moderately severe AP (MSAP)], patients were classified into 3 groups: mild AP (MAP), MSAP and SAP. Data were compared between the groups in terms of severity (using the revised Atlanta criteria) and outcome. Patients were stratified into 2 groups based on the type of fluid resuscitation: the 1-RL group who underwent standard fluid resuscitation with a RL 1000 mL solution or the 2-NS group who underwent standard fluid resuscitation with 1000 mL normal saline (NS). All patients from both groups received an additional 5% glucose solution (1000-1500 mL) and a multi-electrolyte solution (500-1000 mL).

RESULTS: We observed 64 (62.1%) patients with MAP, 26 (25.24%) patients with MSAP and 13 (12.62%) patients with SAP. No significant difference in the distribution of AP severity between the two groups was found. In the 1-RL group, we identified 22 (55.5%) MAP, 10 (25.5%) MSAP and 8 (20.0%) SAP patients, compared with 42 (66.7%) MAP, 16 (24.4%) MSAP and 5 (7.9%) SAP cases in the 2-NS group (P = 0.187). The volumes of fluid administered during the initial 72-h period of hospitalization were similar among the patients from both the 1-RL and 2-NS groups (mean 3400 mL vs 3000 mL, respectively). No significant differences between the 1-RL and 2-NS groups were found in confirmed pancreatic necrosis [10 patients (25%) vs 12 patients (19%), respectively, P = 0.637]. There were no statistically significant differences between the 1-RL and 2-NS groups in the percentage of patients who required enteral nutrition (23 patients vs 17 patients, respectively, P = 0.534). Logistic regression analysis confirmed these findings (OR = 1.344, 95%CI: 0.595-3.035, P = 0.477). There were no significant differences between the 1-RL and 2-NS groups in mortality and the duration of hospital stay (median of 9 d for both groups, P = 0.776).

CONCLUSION: Our study failed to find any evidence that the administration of RL in the first days of AP leads to improved clinical outcomes.

Clinical significance of presence and extent of extrapancreatic necrosis in acute pancreatitis

BACKGROUND AND AIM

Extrapancreatic necrosis (EPN) alone represents a subgroup of pancreatitis with better outcome than patients with pancreatic parenchymal necrosis (PN). However, data on clinical significance of EPN is limited, and significance of the extent of EPN is not known.

METHODS

Two hundred thirteen patients (136 [63.8%] males; mean age: 39.8 ± 13.2 years) with acute pancreatitis were prospectively enrolled and followed up till recovery or death. Contrast-enhanced computed tomography of each patient was retrospectively evaluated for presence of PN and EPN, pleural effusion and ascites. EPN was termed extensive if it extended to paracolic gutters or pelvis.

RESULTS

Twenty-one (9.9%) patients had interstitial pancreatitis, seven (3.3%) patients had PN alone, 48 (22.5%) patients had EPN alone, and 137 (64.3%) patients had combined PN and EPN. Patients with EPN alone had significantly higher frequency of organ failure than patients with interstitial pancreatitis. Compared with patients with EPN alone, the patients with combined necrosis had significantly higher frequency of pleural effusion (88.2% vs. 75%), ascites (41% vs. 20.8%), and need for intervention (32.6% vs. 14.6%). Patients with extensive EPN (n = 57) had significantly higher frequency of pleural effusion, ascites, and multi-organ failure than those with limited EPN.

CONCLUSION

EPN alone should be considered as a separate category of acute pancreatitis as it has less severe course than PN but has more severe course than interstitial pancreatitis. Patients with extensive EPN in spite of having increased frequency of ascites, pleural effusion, and multi-organ failure had similar outcome as compared to patients with limited EPN.

A study of radiological scoring system evaluating extrapancreatic inflammation with conventional radiological and clinical scores in predicting outcomes in acute pancreatitis

BACKGROUND

A number of scoring systems are available to predict prognosis in acute pancreatitis (AP). The aim of the study was to compare extra-pancreatic inflammation on computed tomography (CT) (EPIC score) and renal rim sign with clinical scores (BISAP, SIRS) and conventional CT severity index (CTSI) and modified CTSI (MCTSI) in predicting persistent organ failure (POF), intervention and mortality.

METHODS

The demographic, clinical and radiographic data from patients with AP were retrospectively evaluated. The scores were evaluated by calculating receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curves and area under the ROC (AUROC).

RESULTS

Of the 105 patients (65 males; mean age 40.6±12.9 years) included, 8 died, 71 developed POF, and 16 needed intervention. The mean CTSI, MCTSI and EPIC scores were 5.8±3.0, 7.1±2.6 and 4.0±1.9 respectively. The AUROC for SIRS, BISAP, CTSI, MCTSI, Renal Rim Score and EPIC score in predicting POF were 0.65 (95%CI 0.53-0.78), 0.75 (95%CI 0.65-0.86), 0.66 (95%CI 0.54-0.78), 0.70 (95%CI 0.58-0.81), 0.64 (95%CI 0.52-0.76), 0.71 (95%CI 0.60-0.83), for radiological/endoscopic intervention were 0.50 (95%CI 0.35-0.65), 0.64 (95%CI 0.49-0.78), 0.51 (95%CI 0.36-0.66), 0.55 (95%CI 0.41-0.70), 0.51 (95%CI 0.36-0.67), 0.66 (95%CI 0.52-0.81), and for mortality 0.57 (95%CI 0.38-0.75), 0.90 (95%CI 0.83-0.97), 0.67 (95%CI 0.50-0.83), 0.68 (95%CI 0.51-0.85), 0.73 (95%CI 0.57-0.89) and 0.77 (95%CI 0.64-0.90) respectively.

CONCLUSION

The prognostic performance of various clinical and radiological scoring systems in AP is comparable with BISAP having the highest accuracy for predicting POF and mortality.