Alcohol consumption trends in Australia: Comparing surveys and sales-based measures

A monitoring and site visit intervention to reduce sales to minors at packaged liquor outlets

ISSUE ADDRESSED

Selling alcohol to a minor is a serious offence in the New South Wales Liquor Act. However, minors report they can purchase alcohol easily. This study used an intersectoral partnership between the Central Coast Local Health District (CCLHD) Health Promotion Service, and Liquor & Gaming NSW (L&GNSW) Compliance Operations to test a site visit intervention to increase ID checks at packaged liquor outlets (PLOs).

METHODS

As the current legislative framework does not allow minors to attempt to purchase alcohol from PLOs, even under compliance operations, this study employed pseudo-minors aged 18-19 years. Pseudo-minors visited all PLOs on the Central Coast, NSW in four survey rounds, attempting to purchase alcohol without ID. If a PLO sold alcohol to the pseudo-minor, they received a visit from a Health Promotion Officer and L&GNSW Inspector to inform them of the sale and that they are at risk of selling alcohol to a minor.

RESULTS

Site visits were an effective intervention to increase the rates of ID checking. Alcohol sales to pseudo-minors without ID decreased from 34% in Round 1 to 7% in Round 4. Young sales staff and independent stores were less likely to check ID.

CONCLUSIONS

This intervention was associated with some of the lowest rates of underage alcohol purchasing reported to date. However, it may not be sustainable in the long term. It is recommended that: future studies randomise site visits to investigate their contribution to the observed reduction, cost effectiveness of the intervention is explored and legislative change to allow controlled purchase operations for alcohol is considered. SO WHAT?: Young people under 18 years of age should not be able to purchase alcohol from liquor licence outlets, and strong laws apply if a sale is detected. However, despite these rules, young people still report they can access alcohol in this manner. Whilst our intervention of site visits with the regulatory body saw decreases in sales to our pseudo-minors, we advocate for controlled purchase operations (similar to tobacco control) as a more sustainable and effective intervention to reduce sales to minors - while this is not yet legislated for packaged liquor outlets in Australia, it is deemed best practice in other countries.

Examining the association between psychological distress and alcohol use in Australian adolescents over a period of declining consumption

INTRODUCTION

Youth drinking rates have declined over the past 15 years while self-reported psychological distress has increased, despite a well-recognised positive relationship between the two. The current study aimed to identify changes in the relationship between psychological distress and alcohol use in adolescents from 2007 to 2019.

METHODS

This study used survey responses from 6543 Australians aged 14-19 years who completed the National Drug Strategy Household Survey in 2007, 2010, 2013, 2016 or 2019. Logistic and multivariable linear regressions with interactions (psychological distress × survey wave) predicted any alcohol consumption, short-term risk and average quantity of standard drinks consumed per day.

RESULTS

Psychological distress was a positive predictor of alcohol use and this association remained stable across survey waves as alcohol consumption decreased.

DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS

The relationship between distress and alcohol consumption remained relatively steady, even as youth drinking declined and distress increased. The proportion of drinkers experiencing distress did not increase as consumption rates dropped, suggesting that the decline in youth drinking is occurring independently of the increase in self-reported and diagnosed mental health issues.

'I'd be willing to take that risk for the enjoyment of the time that I have': a COM-B influenced analysis of older people's perspectives on their alcohol consumption

Objectives: To explore how older people understand, perceive, and evaluate the various factors which drive their alcohol consumption behaviours.Methods: Semi-structured interviews were conducted with 33 Australian community-dwelling older adults (aged 65+ years) who drank alcohol at least once a month. Thematic analyses identified common themes which were then mapped onto the COM-B theoretical framework.Results: Drinking behaviours were driven by a lack of capability in the form of poor knowledge regarding safe drinking behaviours and guidelines; high opportunity for consumption due to ease of accessing alcohol and its prominence in social routines; and high motivation to drink due to perceived benefits outweighing perceived risks.Conclusion: Increasing older peoples' knowledge of the risks associated with consumption and safe drinking behaviours represents a key health promotion priority in order to reduce the burden of alcohol-related harms among this group.

Shifts in the Australian public's opinions towards alcohol policies: 2004-2019

INTRODUCTION

After a period of stagnation, alcohol policy in Australia has received increased attention in the past decade, with Sydney's lockout laws and Queensland's restrictions on trading hours garnering media attention. This study will investigate any changing trends in support towards alcohol policy and identify any demographic-specific shifts.

METHODS

Respondents from the National Drug Strategy Household Survey (conducted every 3 years from 2004 to 2019) were asked to gauge their level of support for 16 alcohol policy items proposed to reduce the problems associated with excessive alcohol use. Mean levels of support for various policy options, as well as demographic predictors of support, were assessed.

RESULTS

After an increase from 2004 to 2013, support for more evidence-based policies on alcohol (e.g., restricting the availability of alcohol) has decreased since 2013. Support for policy items that focus less on the restriction of the availability of alcohol and more on education remained relatively stable in comparison. While demographic groups continue to vary in their extent of support, shifts appear to be occurring fairly uniformly across sex, age, states and drinking groups.

DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS

Support for public health-oriented alcohol policies has been decreasing since 2013. The introduction of high-profile policies and less of a media focus on alcohol may be contributing to decreases in support.

Cask wine: Describing drinking patterns associated with Australia's cheapest alcohol

INTRODUCTION

In Australia, cask wine is the cheapest alcoholic beverage available, offering the lowest price per standard drink. Despite this, there is little research on the contextual correlates of cask wine consumption. Therefore, the current study aims to describe how cask wine consumption has changed over the last decade. Then, through comparisons between cask and bottled wine, how prices, typical drinking locations, and patterns of consumption differ between the beverages.

METHODS

Cross-sectional data was drawn from two sources. Four waves of the National Drug Strategy Household Survey were used (2010, 2013, 2016 and 2019) in order to examine consumption trends over time. The International Alcohol Control study (2013) in Australia was additionally used to explore pricing and consumption trends in greater detail.

RESULTS

Cask wine was considerably cheaper than other forms of wine at $0.54 per standard drink (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.45-0.62, p < 0.05). Consumption trends associated with cask wine differed from that of bottled wine, being consumed almost entirely at home and in significantly greater quantity (standard drinks per day 7.8, 95% CI 6.25-9.26, p < 0.05). Among the heaviest drinkers, 13% (95% CI 7.2-18.8, p < 0.05) consumed cask wine as their main drink, compared to 5% (95% CI 3.76-6.24, p < 0.05) consuming bottled wine.

CONCLUSIONS

Cask wine drinkers are disproportionately more likely to consume higher amounts of alcohol, paying less per drink doing so compared to bottled wine drinkers. As all cask wine purchases were under $1.30, a minimum unit price may largely affect cask wine purchases, applying to a far smaller proportion of bottled wine.

Alcohol's harm to others in 2021: Who bears the burden?

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Alcohol's harm to others (AHTO) has become a key driver of national and international alcohol policy. This study aimed to produce a contemporary, comprehensive estimate of the correlates and harms from others' drinking in 2021 in Australia.

DESIGN, SETTING, PARTICIPANTS AND MEASUREMENTS

Across Australia, 2574 adults (1380 women; 1172 men) were sampled via two cross-sectional survey modes: a random-digit dial mobile phone sample of 1000 people and 1574 people from the Life in Australia™ panel survey. In 2021 participants were asked about harms they had experienced from the drinking of family, friends, co-workers and the public in the past year. Applying combined sample weights from each mode, bivariable and adjusted multivariable logistic regressions were used to analyse differences in rates of AHTO by participant gender, age, residence in rural or metropolitan regions, country of birth, education and employment.

FINDINGS

In 2021, 23.6% reported being negatively affected by strangers' drinking and 21.3% by the drinking of someone they knew, with 34.3% reporting being negatively affected a lot or a little by either; 42.4% of respondents reported specific harms from strangers' drinking. Thus, 48.1% of respondents reported any harm (negative effects or specific harms) from others' drinking. Women, younger people, Australian-born and heavier episodic drinkers reported significantly higher rates of AHTO compared with other respondents. Smaller percentages (7.5%) of participants reported being harmed substantially by others' drinking, including by people they knew (5.8%) or strangers (2.3%). Stratified analyses showed that heavier drinking, furloughed, younger men who were born overseas in English-speaking countries were affected by others' drinking, whereas women were affected regardless of these factors (apart from age).

CONCLUSIONS

More than one-third of Australian adults appear to have been negatively affected by others' drinking in 2021, with women, younger people and heavier drinkers at greater risk. Substantial harm appears to be more likely to arise from the drinking of people Australians know than from strangers' drinking.

Do Australian adolescents with permission to drink at home engage in different alcohol use behaviours and experience more harms than those without such permission?

INTRODUCTION

Around half of Australian students aged 16-17 are estimated to have drunk alcohol in the past month, with 11% drinking at 'risky' levels. This study investigated: (i) how many Australian adolescents aged 16-17 had parental permission to drink at home in 2016/17 and whether prevalence differed by adolescent sex; (ii) whether adolescents allowed to drink at home had drunk more recently and were drinking greater quantities; (iii) if adolescents allowed to drink at home experienced more alcohol-related harms; and (iv) if parental drinking patterns were associated with permitting adolescents to drink at home.

METHODS

Data from Wave 7 of the Longitudinal Study of Australian Children were used. Descriptive and bivariate analyses addressed Aims i-iii. Nested multivariable logistic regression models addressed aim iv.

RESULTS

In 2016/17, 28% of Australian adolescents aged 16-17 were allowed to drink alcohol at home. More adolescents with permission had drunk alcohol in the past month (77% vs. 63% of those without permission). There was no difference in quantity of alcohol consumed in the past week between groups. More adolescents allowed to drink at home had experienced alcohol-related harm compared to those without permission (23% vs. 17%). In multivariable analyses, alcohol consumption by primary parents was associated with an increased likelihood of allowing adolescents to drink at home.

DISCUSSIONS AND CONCLUSIONS

In order to reduce adolescent alcohol use and associated harms, parents should avoid permitting alcohol use among adolescents at home. Frequent (twice or more/week) primary parental alcohol consumption was especially associated with greater odds of allowing adolescents to drink at home.

Who are Australia's young heavy drinkers? a cross-sectional population study

OBJECTIVE

In light of the recent declines in youth drinking, the socio-demographic correlates of (1) annual total alcohol consumption (volume) and (2) monthly single occasion risky drinking among underage young people (14-17-year-olds) and young adults (18-24-year-olds) were examined.

METHODS

Cross-sectional data were drawn from the 2019 National Drug Strategy Household Survey (n=1,547). Multivariable negative binomial regression analyses identified the socio-demographic correlates of total annual volume and monthly risky drinking.

RESULTS

Those who spoke English as first language reported higher total volume and rates of monthly risky drinking. Not being in school predicted total volume for 14-17-year-olds, as did having a certificate/diploma for 18-24-year-olds. Living in affluent areas predicted a greater total volume for both age groups, and risky drinking for 18-24-year-olds. Young men in regional areas and working in labour and logistics reported higher total volume than young women in the same groups.

CONCLUSIONS

There are important differences among young heavy drinkers related to gender, cultural background, socio-economic status, education, regionality and work industry.

IMPLICATIONS FOR PUBLIC HEALTH

Prevention strategies that are sensitively tailored towards high risk groups (e.g. young men in regional areas and working in trade and logistics) may be of public health benefit.

Generational shifts in attitudes and beliefs about alcohol: An age-period-cohort approach

INTRODUCTION AND AIMS

Population level alcohol consumption has declined markedly in Australia in the past two decades, with distinct generational patterns. The underlying reason for this shift remains unclear and there has been little work assessing how attitudes and beliefs about alcohol have shifted in population sub-groups.

DESIGN AND METHODS

Using seven waves of survey data spanning 19 years (2001-2019, n = 166,093 respondents aged 14 +), we assess age, time-period and birth cohort effects on trends in four measures of alcohol attitudes (disapproval of regular alcohol use, perceptions of safe drinking levels for men and women and perception that alcohol causes the most deaths of any drug in Australia).

RESULTS

There were steady increases in period effects for perceived safe drinking levels (especially for men) and belief that alcohol causes the most deaths. Disapproval of regular use has been stable at the population level, but there are marked cohort differences, with early and recent cohorts more likely than others to disapprove of regular alcohol use.

DISCUSSIONS AND CONCLUSIONS

These findings point to a broad lowering of perceived safe levels of drinking across the population alongside a sharp increase in disapproval of drinking for recent cohorts, potentially contributing to the reductions in drinking that have been reported in these cohorts.

Age-based differences in quantity and frequency of consumption when screening for harmful alcohol use

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Survey questions on usual quantity and frequency of alcohol consumption are regularly used in screening tools to identify drinkers requiring intervention. The aim of this study was to measure age-based differences in quantity and frequency of alcohol consumption on the Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test (AUDIT) and how this relates to the prediction of harmful or dependent drinking.

DESIGN

Cross-sectional survey.

SETTING

Australia.

PARTICIPANTS

Data were taken from 17 399 respondents who reported any alcohol consumption in the last year and were aged 18 and over from the 2016 National Drug Strategy Household Survey, a broadly representative cross-sectional survey on substance use.

MEASUREMENT

Respondents were asked about their frequency of consumption, usual quantity per occasion and the other items of the AUDIT.

FINDINGS

In older drinkers, quantity per occasion [β = 0.53, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.43, 0.64 in 43-47-year-olds as an example] was a stronger predictor of dependence than frequency per occasion (β = 0.24, 95% CI = 0.17, 0.31). In younger drinkers the reverse was true, with frequency a stronger predictor (β = 0.54, 95% CI = 0.39, 0.69 in 23-27-year-olds) than quantity (β = 0.26, 95% CI = 0.18, 0.34 in 23-27-year-olds). Frequency of consumption was not a significant predictor of dependence in respondents aged 73 years and over (β = -0.03, 95% CI = -0.08, 0.02). Similar patterns were found when predicting harmful drinking. Despite this, as frequency of consumption increased steadily with age, the question on frequency was responsible for at least 65% of AUDIT scores in drinkers aged 53 years and over.

CONCLUSIONS

In younger drinkers, frequent drinking is more strongly linked to dependence and harmful drinking subscale scores on the Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test (AUDIT) than quantity per occasion, yet quantity per occasion has a stronger influence on the overall AUDIT score in this group. In older drinkers, frequency of consumption is not always a significant predictor of the AUDIT dependence subscale and is a weak predictor of the harmful drinking subscale.

Rates of homicide and homicide associated with severe mental illness in NSW between 1993 and 2016

OBJECTIVE

To describe the characteristics of offenders found not guilty on the grounds of mental illness (NGMI) in New South Wales and rates of NGMI and other homicide verdicts.

METHOD

Demographic, legal and clinical data after referral to the NSW Mental Health Review Tribunal following an NGMI verdict for homicide matched with results from the National Homicide Monitoring Program.

RESULTS

Between 1993 and 2016, a total of 2159 homicide offenders were dealt with by the NSW courts, including 169 (7.8%) who were found NGMI. Over this period, the rate of non-NGMI homicide convictions fell from 1.83 per 100,000 per annum to 0.65 per 100,000 per annum (Kendall's tau = -0.79, p ⩽ 0.001) while the rate of NGMI homicide fluctuated, with an average annual rate of about 0.1 per 100,000 per annum (Kendall's tau = 0.17, p = 0.23). There was no association between the annual rates of NGMI and non-NGMI homicides (Pearson r = -0.3, p = 0.16) but falling rate of non-NGMI homicide meant that the proportion of NGMI offences doubled from 5.5% in the first 12 years to 11% in the second 12 years. Nearly all (88.7%) of those found NGMI had a schizophrenia-related psychosis. However, there were high rates of psychiatric comorbidity including substance use disorder (60.7%) and a history of a prior head injury (41.1%). Most (83.4%) of the NGMI offenders had previous contact with mental health services, but only half of these had received treatment with antipsychotic medication.

CONCLUSION

The fall in conviction for homicide offences in the last 24 years has not been matched by a reduction in NGMI homicide verdicts. More assertive treatment of emerging psychosis and comorbid substance use disorders, and improved continuity of care of chronic psychosis might prevent some homicides.

Alcohol consumption trajectories over the Australian life course

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Alcohol consumption changes markedly over the life course, with important implications for health and social development. Assessment of these patterns often relies on cross-sectional data, which cannot fully capture how individuals' drinking changes as they age. This study used data from 18 waves of a general population panel survey to measure drinking trajectories over the life course in Australia.

DESIGN AND SETTING

Longitudinal survey data from the Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) survey between 2001 and 2018.

PARTICIPANTS

A total of 20 593 individuals ages 15 or above in two samples assessing quantity-frequency (n = 20 569, 52.0% female) and risky single occasion drinking (RSOD), respectively, (n = 17 340, 52.5% female), interviewed as part of HILDA.

MEASUREMENTS

Usual quantity of alcohol consumed per drinking occasion; frequency of drinking occasions per week; average daily consumption, calculated by combining reported usual quantity and frequency; and average reported frequency of RSOD per week.

FINDINGS

Multilevel, mixed effects models run with fractional polynomial terms found similar male and female alcohol consumption trajectories for quantity-frequency and RSOD measures. Usual quantity of alcohol consumed per drinking occasion (5.4 drinks for men, 3.8 for women) and RSOD frequency (0.56 occasions/week for men, 0.38 for women) peaked in young adulthood, whereas frequency of drinking occasions (2.5 occasions/week for men, 1.7 for women) peaked in middle age. Middle-age drinkers had the highest average daily consumption of alcohol (1.4 drinks/day for 54-year-old men, 0.6 drinks for 57-year-old women) and engaged in RSOD slightly less than young adults.

CONCLUSIONS

Alcohol consumption in Australia appears to vary substantially over the life course, with usual quantity per drinking occasion and frequency of risky single occasion drinking peaking during early adulthood and average daily consumption and frequency of consumption peaking in middle age.

Alcohol consumption, heavy episodic drinking and the perpetration of antisocial behaviours in Australia

AIMS

This study aims to understand the dose-response relationship of the volume and patterns of alcohol consumption with alcohol-related antisocial behaviours (ASB) in the general population and assess whether these relationships are consistent across various sociodemographic subgroups.

METHODS

We used data from 30,275 respondents aged (14-69) from two waves (2013 and 2016) of the National Drug Strategy Household Survey (NDSHS). Average daily alcohol consumption and heavy episodic drinking (HED) frequencies were treated as the main independent variables and self-reported ASB perpetration as the dependent variable. Bivariable and multivariable logistic regression models predicting ASB with interaction terms between alcohol consumption and various sociodemographic variables were estimated.

FINDINGS

Compared with low-risk drinking (0.01-20 g of alcohol/day), respondents drinking at risky (20.01-40 g of alcohol/day) and high risk (>40 g of alcohol per day) levels had an increased prevalence of ASB perpetration with adjusted odds ratios of 3.63 (95% CI 2.98-4.42) and 8.07 (6.72-9.71). Increasing frequency of HED was also linked to increased self-report of ASB perpetration in bivariable and multivariable models. In our interaction models, we found higher probabilities of ASB perpetration among younger and unmarried respondents for a given level of drinking.

DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS

Both average daily alcohol consumption and frequency of HED predict the probability of perpetrating alcohol-related ASB. Unsurprisingly, the risk of alcohol-specific ASB increased more quickly with consumption levels for younger and single respondents, suggesting interventions to reduce consumption among younger and unmarried persons will significantly impact ASB.

Declines in alcohol consumption in Australia: some challenges to the theory of collectivity

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

There is significant debate about whether or not changes in per-capita alcohol consumption occur collectively across the entire distribution of drinking. This study used data from a decade of declining drinking in Australia to test the collectivity of drinking trends.

DESIGN

Repeated cross-sectional surveys (2010, 2013, 2016, 2019), analysed with quantile regression techniques assessing trends in drinking for 20 quantile groups.

SETTING

Australia.

PARTICIPANTS

A general population sample (total n = 85 891; males = 39 182, females = 46 709) aged 14 years and over.

MEASUREMENTS

Past-year volume of alcohol consumed was measured using standard graduated frequency survey questions. Models were stratified by sex and age group.

FINDINGS

Throughout the whole population, alcohol consumption had declined in all percentile groups, with the largest proportional declines evident for light and moderate drinkers [e.g. drinkers in the 25th percentile declined by 32.7%; 95% confidence interval (CI) = -41.6, -22.3% per wave]. Broadly collective declines were also found for younger men and women with significant declines in every percentile group, but older groups showed some evidence of polarization. For example, women aged 45-64 years significantly increased their consumption (2.9% per wave, 95% CI = 0.3-5.5%), while consumption for those in the 25th percentile fell significantly (-16.7%, 95% CI = -27.6, -4.2%).

CONCLUSIONS

The declines in Australian drinking since 2010 have included important deviations from the collectivity predicted by Skog's influential theory of collectivity of drinking, with markedly different patterns evident among different demographic groups.

Tracking the decline in Australian adolescent drinking into adulthood

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Adolescent drinking in Australia (and many other countries) has declined substantially since the early 2000s. This study aimed to test whether these declines have been maintained into adulthood and whether they are consistent across sub-groups defined by sex and socio-economic status.

DESIGN

Quasi-cohorts were constructed from seven repeated waves of cross-sectional household survey data (2001-2019).

SETTING

Australia.

PARTICIPANTS

A total of 20 733 respondents age between 14 and 24 (male: 9492; female: 11 241).

MEASUREMENTS

Participants were grouped into five cohorts based on their birth year (from 1979-1983 to 1999-2003). Three measures of drinking were assessed: any past-year consumption (yes/no), past-year regular risky drinking (12 or more drinking episodes of >40 g of pure alcohol, yes/no) and total volume of alcohol consumed in the past year (in Australian standard drinks, 10 g of alcohol). Socio-economic status was measured based on neighbourhood of residence.

FINDINGS

Drinking declines were consistent across socio-economic groups on all measures and trends were broadly similar for women and men. More recent birth cohorts had significantly lower levels of drinking across all three measures (odds ratios between 0.31 and 0.70 for drinking and risky drinking, coefficients between -0.28 and -0.80 for drinking volume). There were significant interactions between birth cohort and age for past-year drinking and past-year regular risky drinking, with cohort differences diminishing as age increased.

CONCLUSIONS

Lighter drinking adolescent cohorts appear to partly 'catch up' to previous cohorts by early adulthood, but maintain lower levels of drinking and risky drinking up to the age of 24. These ongoing reductions in drinking are spread evenly across socio-economic groups.

Subgroups of adults who drink alcohol at low-risk levels: Diverse drinking patterns and demography

INTRODUCTION

A significant minority of Australians drink within the 2009 national guidelines. Despite encouragement of low-risk drinking as opposed to consumption patterns associated with greater harm, little is known about the drinking patterns of this group. This paper identifies subgroups of low-risk drinkers and their distinguishable characteristics.

METHODS

Data were sourced from the 2016 National Drug Strategy Household Survey, specifically 8492 adults (18+) who consumed 1-730 Australian standard drinks (ASD; 10 g ethanol) in the past year, and never 5+ ASD on a single occasion. Cluster analysis enabled identification of subgroups from drinking variables. Drinking patterns, socio-demographic characteristics, drinking context and alcohol-related perceptions of subgroups were examined.

RESULTS

Three subgroups were identified. Special occasion drinkers (64.6%) drank low to moderate amounts very infrequently. Regular moderates (19.6%) and Regular sippers (15.8%) drank 5-6 days a week on average, with the average number of ASD per day 1.2 and 0.5, respectively. Special occasion drinkers tended to be younger than members of more regular drinking subgroups. Perceptions of regular alcohol use also differed between Special occasion drinkers and members of the other subgroups.

DISCUSSION

Alcohol consumption patterns among low-risk drinkers are not homogeneous. Younger drinkers who consume at low-risk levels are more likely to report infrequent consumption than moderate regular consumption. A better understanding of low-risk drinkers may help increase the prominence and acceptability of this type of drinking, challenge the normativity of heavier drinking norms and help target campaigns as new information emerges on health risks associated with low-level drinking.

Patterns of alcohol consumption in 16 cohorts of Australian young adults aged 15-24 between 2001 and 2016

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Repeated cross-sectional surveys have identified substantial declines in adolescent drinking in Australia and some other countries in recent years. There is debate about whether these declines will be maintained as the cohort ages. This study modelled alcohol consumption over time to check for cohort effects reflecting a decrease in youth consumption, and then used this model to predict how decreases in youth drinking will be sustained through to adulthood.

DESIGN

Longitudinal study using data from the Household Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) survey from 2001 to 2016. Piecewise latent growth models were estimated to assess consumption trajectories for each birth cohort from ages 15-18 and 18-24 years.

SETTING

Australia.

PARTICIPANTS

This study focused on 5320 (51.9% female) respondents aged between 15 and 22 in wave 1 (2001) to those aged between 17 and 24 in wave 16 (2016).

MEASUREMENT

Annual volume of alcohol consumption was calculated as the product of the quantity per occasion and the frequency of drinking expanded to represent drinking occasions per year.

FINDINGS

The model with best fit suggested that consumption increased rapidly [b = 0.667, standard error (SE) = 0.046, P < 0.001] until the legal drinking age of 18 and then plateaued (b = -0.027, SE = 0.016, P = 0.088). More recent cohorts start with significantly lower levels of consumption (b = -0.145, SE = 0.010; P < 0.001) but increase at a faster rate (b = 0.022, SE = 0.003, P < 0.001) between 15 and 18; however, not enough to catch up to earlier cohorts.

CONCLUSION

Recent decreases in adolescent drinking in Australia may, at least in part, be attributed to lower consumption in recent cohorts of younger drinkers. Results indicate that this group may continue to drink less than previous cohorts as they age into their twenties.

Sales of Sugar-Sweetened Beverages in Australia: A Trend Analysis from 1997 to 2018

Lowering intake of sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) is being advocated as an obesity prevention strategy in Australia. The purpose of this study was to extend on previous reports of trends in national volume sales of SSBs. Data were extracted from commercially available datasets of beverage sales (AC Nielsen (1997–2011) and IRI Australia (2009–2018)). Linear regression was used to examine trends for the period 1997 to 2018. Per capita attribution of volume sales and sugar contribution was estimated by dividing by the Australian resident population for the relevant year. Per capita volume sales of SSBs fell 27%, from 83L/person to 61L/person, largely driven by declining sales of sugar-sweetened carbonated soft drinks (76 to 45L/person). Volume sales of non-SSB increased, from 48 to 88L/person, the largest contributor being pure unflavoured still waters (6 to 48L/person). Volume sales of non-SSBs have exceeded those of SSBs since 2015. The yearly contribution of SSBs to the sugar content of the national diet declined from 9.0 to 6.4kg/person. Major, long-term shifts are occurring in the market for non-alcoholic, water-based beverages in Australia, notably a fall in per capita volume sales of SSBs and an increase in volume sales of water. Both trends are consistent with obesity prevention strategies.

Inaccuracies in survey reporting of alcohol consumption

BACKGROUND

Alcohol consumption estimates in public health predominantly rely on self-reported survey data which is likely to underestimate consumption volume. Surveys tend to ask specifically about standard drinks and provide a definition or guide in an effort to gather accurate estimates. This study aimed to investigate whether the inclusion of the term standard drinks with pictorial guide is associated with an adjustment in self-reported alcohol volume.

METHODS

A web-based survey was administered with AUDIT-C questions repeated at the beginning and end of the survey with and without the standard drink term and guide. The order in which respondents were presented with the different question types was randomised. Two cohorts of university/college students in NSW Australia (n = 122) and the US Pacific Northwest (n = 285) completed the survey online.

RESULTS

Australian students did not adjust their responses to questions with and without the standard drink term and pictorial guide. The US students were more likely to adjust their responses based on the detail of the question asked. Those US students who drank more frequently and in greater volume were less likely to adjust/apply a conversion to their consumption.

CONCLUSIONS

This study supports previous findings of the inaccuracy of alcohol consumption volume in surveys, but also demonstrates that an assumption of underestimation cannot be applied to all individual reports of consumption. Using additional questions to better understand drink types and serving sizes is a potential approach to enable accurate calculation of underestimation in survey data.

The impact of reducing alcohol consumption in Australia: An estimate of the proportion of potentially avoidable cancers 2013-2037

The International Agency for Research on Cancer first concluded that alcohol causes cancer in humans in 1988. The World Cancer Research Fund has declared that alcohol causes cancer of the oral cavity, pharynx, larynx, oesophagus (squamous cell carcinoma), female breast, colon, rectum, stomach and liver. It recommended that alcohol be avoided altogether to prevent cancer. We aimed to quantify the impact of reducing alcohol consumption on future cancer incidence in Australia. We used PREVENT 3.01 simulation modelling software to estimate the proportion of cancers that could potentially be prevented over a 25-year period under two hypothetical intervention scenarios and two latency periods (20 and 30 years). Under a scenario where alcohol consumption abruptly ceases, we estimated up to 4% of alcohol-related cancers could be avoided over a 25-year period (~49,500 cancers, depending on assumed latency). If the maximum consumption of all Australian adults was ≤20 g/day (~two Australian standard drinks), up to 2% of alcohol-related cancers could be avoided (~29,600 cancers). The maximum proportions were higher for men (6% for no alcohol consumption; 5% for ≤20 g/day) than women (3%; 1%). The proportion avoidable was highest for oesophageal squamous cell carcinoma (17% no alcohol consumption; 9% ≤20 g/day), followed by cancers of the oral cavity (12%; 5%) and pharynx (11%; 5%). The cancer sites with the highest numbers of potentially avoidable cases were colon in men (11,500; 9,900) and breast in women (14,400; 4,100). Successful interventions to reduce alcohol intake could lead to significant reductions in cancer incidence.

Immigration and the decline in adolescent binge drinking

BACKGROUND

Adolescent alcohol consumption has fallen in most Western countries over the past two decades, while immigrants and children of immigrants from low-consumption countries constitute a growing proportion of teenagers in many Western nations. We investigate the extent to which immigrants and children of immigrants have contributed to the decline in adolescent heavy episodic drinking in Oslo, the capital of Norway.

METHODS

We use repeated cross-sectional survey data on adolescents in grades 9-11 in Oslo (aged around 14-16, N = 54,474) from 1996 to 2018. We use data on heavy episodic drinking/intoxication in the past 12 months (dichotomized), immigrant background, sex and grade. We decompose the trend into components attributable to changes in the demographic composition of the adolescent population (by immigrant background, grade and sex), and to changes in drinking patterns within different groups. Confidence intervals (CIs) are obtained by bootstrap resampling.

RESULTS

The proportion of adolescents with immigrant backgrounds increased from 21% to 35% over the time span. The proportion reporting having been intoxicated fell from 42% to 25%. Most of the decline stems from reduced heavy episodic drinking in the majority population, accounting for 70.8% of the reduction (95% CI: 67.5-74.2). The increased proportion of adolescents with an immigrant background accounts for 21.4% of the decline (95% CI: 19.2-23.8).

CONCLUSIONS

An increasing proportion of immigrants and children of immigrants with low alcohol consumption explains one-fifth of the decline in the prevalence of adolescent heavy episodic drinking in Oslo.

Protocol for the Data-Linkage Alcohol Cohort Study (DACS): investigating mortality, morbidity and offending among people with an alcohol-related problem using linked administrative data

INTRODUCTION

The aims of this program of research are to use linked health and law enforcement data to describe individuals presenting to emergency and inpatient healthcare services with an acute alcohol harm or problematic alcohol use; measure their health service utilisation and law enforcement engagement; and quantify morbidity, mortality, offending and incarceration.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

We will assemble a retrospective cohort of people presenting to emergency departments and/or admitted to hospitals between 1 January 2005 and 31 December 2014 in New South Wales, Australia with a diagnosis denoting an acute alcohol harm or problematic alcohol use. We will link these data with records from other healthcare services (eg, community-based mental healthcare data, cancer registry), mortality, offending and incarceration data sets. The four overarching areas for analysis comprise: (1) describing the characteristics of the cohort at their first point of contact with emergency and inpatient hospital services in the study period with a diagnosis indicating an acute alcohol harm and/or problematic alcohol use; (2) quantifying health service utilisation and law enforcement engagement; (3) quantifying rates of mortality, morbidity, offending and incarceration; and (4) assessing predictors (eg, age, sex) of mortality, morbidity, offending and incarceration among this cohort.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

Ethics approval has been provided by the New South Wales Population and Health Services Research Ethics Committee. We will report our findings in accordance with the REporting of studies Conducted using Observational Routinely collected health Data (RECORD) statement and Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting (GATHER) where appropriate. We will publish data in tabular, aggregate forms only. We will not disclose individual results. We will disseminate project findings at scientific conferences and in peer-reviewed journals. We will aim to present findings to relevant stakeholders (eg, addiction medicine and emergency medicine specialists, policy makers) to maximise translational impact of research findings.

Time of Year Effects on Self-Reported Estimates of Past-Year Alcohol Consumption

There were higher estimates of alcohol consumption for respondents completing the survey in November (late spring) and lower estimates in August and September (late winter/early spring). Seasonal variations in alcohol consumption have the potential to impact respondents’ accurate recall of alcohol consumption in the last 12 months.

Has the Relationship Between Alcohol Consumption and Alcohol-Related Risky Behaviour Changed in Australia? An Exploratory Study

AIMS

Recent studies have pointed to diverging trends between alcohol consumption and harm rates. One explanation for these trends is the normalization hypothesis, which suggests that declines in alcohol consumption will result in more risky behaviour by the remaining drinkers as consumption becomes a more deviant behaviour. We examine how the relationship between alcohol consumption and risky behaviour has changed in Australia over a fourteen-year period.

METHODS

Risky behaviour and alcohol consumption were obtained from six waves (2001, 2004, 2007, 2010, 2013, 2016) of the National Drug Strategy Household Survey (NDSHS). 115,115 respondents aged over 14 were included in this study. Poisson regression analyses were conducted to examine the relationship between risky behaviour and two measures of alcohol consumption (average volume per day and risky drinking occasions per month) over six NDSHS waves. Interaction terms between year and the drinking variables were included in each model to identify shifts in this relationship between consumption and harm.

RESULTS

Respondents with greater alcohol consumption were more likely to report risky behaviour (IRR = 1.15, 95% CI = 1.13-1.16). Risky behaviour generally declined over time however older participants reported more risky behaviour over time. Generally, the relationship between alcohol consumption and risky behaviour has remained stable, with some very minor upward shifts for young drinkers (aged 14-29; highest IRR = 1.03, 95% CI = 1.01-1.04).

CONCLUSIONS

We found little support for the normalization hypothesis-risky behaviour tends to shift consistently along with drinking levels. Results suggest that recent reductions in alcohol consumption should lead to reductions in rates of harm.

Underestimation of alcohol consumption in cohort studies and implications for alcohol's contribution to the global burden of disease

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Estimated alcohol consumption from national self-report surveys is often only 30-40% of official estimates based on sales or taxation data. Global burden of disease (GBD) estimates for alcohol adjust survey estimates up to 80% of total per capita consumption. This assumes that cohort studies needed to estimate relative risks for disease suffer less from under-reporting than typical national surveys. However, there is limited evidence on which to base that assumption. This paper aims to assess the extent of underestimation of alcohol consumption in cohort studies concerning alcohol and mortality compared with official total consumption estimates.

DESIGN

Comparisons of estimated per capita consumption from a comprehensive sample of cohort studies against official estimates by country and year.

PARTICIPANTS

A total of 1 876 046 participants in 40 cohort studies from 18 countries on alcohol use and all-cause mortality identified by systematic review.

MEASUREMENTS

Alcohol consumption data from the cohort studies were converted into usual grams of ethanol per day and then to total age 15+ per capita consumption. Matched estimates were sourced from the World Health Organization (WHO) Global Health Observatory.

FINDINGS

The cohort studies had mean coverages of age 15+ per capita alcohol consumption of 61.71% (ranging from 29.19% for Russia to 96.53% for Japan), after weighting estimates by sample size for within-country estimates and by number of studies per country for the overall estimate. Regional estimates were higher for the United States (66.22%) and lower for western European countries (55.35%).

CONCLUSIONS

Underestimation of alcohol consumption in cohort studies is less than in typical population surveys. Because some under-coverage is caused by under-sampling heavier drinkers, the current practice of uplifting survey estimates to 80% of total population consumption in global burden of disease studies appears to be appropriate.