A standardized algorithm for determining the underlying cause of death in HIV infection as AIDS or non-AIDS related: results from the EuroSIDA study

The role of HIV/hepatitis B virus/hepatitis C virus RNA+ triple infection in end-stage liver disease and all-cause mortality in Europe

BACKGROUND

There are limited data on end-stage liver disease (ESLD) and mortality in people with HIV (PWH) coinfected with both hepatitis B virus (HBV) and hepatitis C virus (HCV).

METHODS

All PWH aged greater than 18 under follow-up in EuroSIDA positive for HBsAg (HBV), and/or HCVRNA+, were followed from baseline (latest of 1 January 2001, EuroSIDA recruitment, known HBV/HCV status) to ESLD, death, last visit, or 31 December 2020. Follow-up while HCVRNA- was excluded. In two separate models, Poisson regression compared three groups updated over time; HIV/HBV, HIV/HCV, and HIV/HBV/HCV.

RESULTS

Among 5733 included individuals, 4476 (78.1%) had HIV/HCV, 953 (16.6%) had HIV/HBV and 304 (5.3%) had HIV/HBV/HCV. In total, 289 (5%) developed ESLD during 34 178 person-years of follow-up (PYFU), incidence 8.5/1000 PYFU [95% confidence interval (CI) 7.5-9.4] and 707 deaths occurred during 34671 PYFU (incidence 20.4/1000 PYFU; 95% CI 18.9-21.9). After adjustment, compared with those with HIV/HCV, persons with HIV/HBV had significantly lower rates of ESLD [adjusted incidence rate ratio (aIRR) 0.53; 95% CI 0.34-0.81]. Those with HIV/HBV/HCV had marginally significantly higher rates of ESLD (aIRR 1.49; 95% CI 0.98-2.26). Those under follow-up in 2014 or later had significantly lower rates of ESLD compared with 2007-2013 (aIRR 0.65; 95% CI 0.47-0.89). Differences in ESLD between the three groups were most pronounced in those aged at least 40. After adjustment, there were no significant differences in all-cause mortality across the three groups.

CONCLUSION

HIV/HBV-coinfected individuals had lower rates of ESLD and HIV/HBV/HCV had higher rates of ESLD compared with those with HIV/HCV, especially in those aged more than 40. ESLD decreased over time across all groups.

CLINICALTRIALSGOV IDENTIFIER

NCT02699736.

Uptake of tenofovir-based antiretroviral therapy among HIV-HBV-coinfected patients in the EuroSIDA study

BACKGROUND

According to guidelines all HIV-HBV-coinfected patients should receive tenofovir-based combination antiretroviral therapy (cART). We aimed to investigate uptake and outcomes of tenofovir-based cART among HIV-HBV patients in the EuroSIDA study.

METHODS

All hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg)+ patients followed up after 1 March 2002 were included. Changes in the proportion taking tenofovir-based cART over time were described. Poisson regression was used to investigate the relationship between tenofovir use and clinical events.

RESULTS

953 HIV-HBV patients were included. Median age was 41 years and patients were predominantly male (85%), White (82%) and ART-experienced (88%). 697 and 256 were from Western and Eastern Europe, respectively. 55 started cART during follow-up, the proportion starting with CD4⁺ T-cell count <350 cells/mm³ decreased from 85% to 52% in the periods 2002-2006 to 2007-2015. Tenofovir use, among those taking cART, increased from 4% in 2002 to 73% in 2015. Compared to West, tenofovir use was lower in East in 2005 (7% versus 42%), and remained lower in 2015 (63% versus 76%). Among 602 patients taking tenofovir-based cART during follow-up, 155 (26%) discontinued tenofovir. 27 of all discontinuations were due to adverse effects. Only 14 started entecavir and/or adefovir after tenofovir discontinuation, whereas 10 started pegylated interferon. Tenofovir use was not significantly associated with lower risk of liver-related clinical events (n=51), adjusted incidence rate ratio (IRR) 0.64 (95% CI 0.35, 1.18) for comparing patients on tenofovir with those off tenofovir.

CONCLUSIONS

Although use of tenofovir-based cART among HIV-HBV patients has increased across Europe, a substantial proportion are still starting cART late and are receiving suboptimal HBV therapy.

Classification of death causes after transplantation (CLASS): Evaluation of methodology and initial results

Correct classification of death causes is an important component of transplant trials.We aimed to develop and validate a system to classify causes of death in hematopoietic stem cell (HSCT) and solid organ (SOT) transplant recipients.Case record forms (CRF) of fatal cases were completed, including investigator-designated cause of death. Deaths occurring in 2010 to 2013 were used for derivation; and were validated by deaths occurring in 2013 to 2015. Underlying cause of death (referred to as recorded underlying cause) was determined through a central adjudication process involving 2 external reviewers, and subsequently compared with the Danish National Death Cause Registry.Three hundred eighty-eight recipients died 2010 to 2015 (196 [51%] SOT and 192 [49%] HSCT). The main recorded underlying causes of death among SOT and HSCT were classified as cancer (20%, 48%), graft rejection/failure/graft-versus-host-disease (35%, 28%), and infections (20%, 11%). Kappa between the investigator-designated and the recorded underlying cause of death was 0.74 (95% CI 0.69-0.80) in derivation and comparable in the validation cohort. Death causes were concordant with the Danish National Death Cause Registry in 37.2% (95% CI 31.5-42.9) and 38.4% (95% CI 28.8-48.0) in the derivation and validation cohorts, respectively.We developed and validated a method to systematically and reliably classify the underlying cause of death among transplant recipients. There was a high degree of discordance between this classification and that in the Danish National Death Cause Registry.

CD4:CD8 Ratio and CD8 Count as Prognostic Markers for Mortality in Human Immunodeficiency Virus-Infected Patients on Antiretroviral Therapy: The Antiretroviral Therapy Cohort Collaboration (ART-CC)

Background

We investigated whether CD4:CD8 ratio and CD8 count were prognostic for all-cause, AIDS, and non-AIDS mortality in virologically suppressed patients with high CD4 count.

Methods

We used data from 13 European and North American cohorts of human immunodeficiency virus–infected, antiretroviral therapy (ART)–naive adults who started ART during 1996–2010, who were followed from the date they had CD4 count ≥350 cells/μL and were virologically suppressed (baseline). We used stratified Cox models to estimate unadjusted and adjusted (for sex, people who inject drugs, ART initiation year, and baseline age, CD4 count, AIDS, duration of ART) all-cause and cause-specific mortality hazard ratios for tertiles of CD4:CD8 ratio (0–0.40, 0.41–0.64 [reference], >0.64) and CD8 count (0–760, 761–1138 [reference], >1138 cells/μL) and examined the shape of associations using cubic splines.

Results

During 276526 person-years, 1834 of 49865 patients died (249 AIDS-related; 1076 non-AIDS-defining; 509 unknown/unclassifiable deaths). There was little evidence that CD4:CD8 ratio was prognostic for all-cause mortality after adjustment for other factors: the adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) for lower vs middle tertile was 1.11 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.00–1.25). The association of CD8 count with all-cause mortality was U-shaped: aHR for higher vs middle tertile was 1.13 (95% CI, 1.01–1.26). AIDS-related mortality declined with increasing CD4:CD8 ratio and decreasing CD8 count. There was little evidence that CD4:CD8 ratio or CD8 count was prognostic for non-AIDS mortality.

Conclusions

In this large cohort collaboration, the magnitude of adjusted associations of CD4:CD8 ratio or CD8 count with mortality was too small for them to be useful as independent prognostic markers in virally suppressed patients on ART.

Long-term effectiveness of recommended boosted protease inhibitor-based antiretroviral therapy in Europe

OBJECTIVES

The aim of the study was to evaluate the long-term response to antiretroviral treatment (ART) based on atazanavir/ritonavir (ATZ/r)-, darunavir/ritonavir (DRV/r)-, and lopinavir/ritonavir (LPV/r)-containing regimens.

METHODS

Data were analysed for 5678 EuroSIDA-enrolled patients starting a DRV/r-, ATZ/r- or LPV/r-containing regimen between 1 January 2000 and 30 June 2013. Separate analyses were performed for the following subgroups of patients: (1) ART-naïve subjects (8%) at ritonavir-boosted protease inhibitor (PI/r) initiation; (2) ART-experienced individuals (44%) initiating the new PI/r with a viral load (VL) ≤500 HIV-1 RNA copies/mL; and (3) ART-experienced patients (48%) initiating the new PI/r with a VL >500 copies/mL. Virological failure (VF) was defined as two consecutive VL measurements >200 copies/mL ≥24 weeks after PI/r initiation. Kaplan-Meier and multivariable Cox models were used to compare risks of failure by PI/r-based regimen. The main analysis was performed with intention-to-treat (ITT) ignoring treatment switches.

RESULTS

The time to VF favoured DRV/r over ATZ/r, and both were superior to LPV/r (log-rank test; P < 0.02) in all analyses. Nevertheless, the risk of VF in ART-naïve patients was similar regardless of the PI/r initiated after controlling for potential confounders. The risk of VF in both treatment-experienced groups was lower for DRV/r than for ATZ/r, which, in turn, was lower than for LPV/r-based ART.

CONCLUSIONS

Although confounding by indication and calendar year cannot be completely ruled out, in ART-experienced subjects the long-term effectiveness of DRV/r-containing regimens appears to be greater than that of ATZ/r and LPV/r.

Where is the greatest impact of uncontrolled HIV infection on AIDS and non-AIDS events in HIV?

OBJECTIVE

The extent to which controlled and uncontrolled HIV interact with ageing, European region of care and calendar year of follow-up is largely unknown.

METHOD

EuroSIDA participants were followed after 1 January 2001 and grouped according to current HIV progression risk; high risk (CD4 cell count ≤350/μl, viral load ≥10 000 copies/ml), low risk (CD4 cell count ≥500 cells/μl, viral load <50 copies/ml) and intermediate (other combinations). Poisson regression investigated interactions between HIV progression risk, age, European region of care and year of follow-up and incidence of AIDS or non-AIDS events.

RESULTS

A total of 16 839 persons were included with 136 688 person-years of follow-up. In persons aged 30 years or less, those at high risk had a six-fold increased incidence of non-AIDS compared with those at low risk, compared with a two-to-three-fold increase in older persons (P = 0.0004, interaction). In Eastern Europe, those at highest risk of non-AIDS had a 12-fold increased incidence compared with a two-to-four-fold difference in all other regions (P = 0.0029, interaction). Those at high risk of non-AIDS during 2001-2004 had a two-fold increased incidence compared with those at low risk, increasing to a five-fold increase between 2013 and 2016 (P < 0.0001, interaction). Differences among high, intermediate and low risk of AIDS were similar across age groups, year of follow-up and Europe (P = 0.57, 0.060 and 0.090, respectively, interaction).

CONCLUSION

Factors other than optimal control of HIV become increasingly important with ageing for predicting non-AIDS, whereas differences across Europe reflect differences in patient management as well as underlying socioeconomic circumstances. The differences between those at high, intermediate and low risk of non-AIDS between 2013 and 2016 likely reflects better quality of care.

Use of the Coding Causes of Death in HIV in the classification of deaths in Northeastern Brazil

OBJECTIVE

Describe the coding process of death causes for people living with HIV/AIDS, and classify deaths as related or unrelated to immunodeficiency by applying the Coding Causes of Death in HIV (CoDe) system.

METHODS

A cross-sectional study that codifies and classifies the causes of deaths occurring in a cohort of 2,372 people living with HIV/AIDS, monitored between 2007 and 2012, in two specialized HIV care services in Pernambuco. The causes of death already codified according to the International Classification of Diseases were recoded and classified as deaths related and unrelated to immunodeficiency by the CoDe system. We calculated the frequencies of the CoDe codes for the causes of death in each classification category.

RESULTS

There were 315 (13%) deaths during the study period; 93 (30%) were caused by an AIDS-defining illness on the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention list. A total of 232 deaths (74%) were related to immunodeficiency after application of the CoDe. Infections were the most common cause, both related (76%) and unrelated (47%) to immunodeficiency, followed by malignancies (5%) in the first group and external causes (16%), malignancies (12 %) and cardiovascular diseases (11%) in the second group. Tuberculosis comprised 70% of the immunodeficiency-defining infections.

CONCLUSIONS

Opportunistic infections and aging diseases were the most frequent causes of death, adding multiple disease burdens on health services. The CoDe system increases the probability of classifying deaths more accurately in people living with HIV/AIDS.

OBJETIVO

Descrever o processo de codificação das causas de morte em pessoas vivendo com HIV/Aids, e classificar os óbitos como relacionados ou não relacionados à imunodeficiência aplicando o sistema Coding Causes of Death in HIV (CoDe).

MÉTODOS

Estudo transversal, que codifica e classifica as causas dos óbitos ocorridos em uma coorte de 2.372 pessoas vivendo com HIV/Aids acompanhadas entre 2007 e 2012 em dois serviços de atendimento especializado em HIV em Pernambuco. As causas de óbito já codificadas a partir da Classificação Internacional de Doenças foram recodificadas e classificadas como óbitos relacionados e não relacionados à imunodeficiência pelo sistema CoDe. Foram calculadas as frequências dos códigos CoDe das causas do óbito em cada categoria de classificação.

RESULTADOS

Ocorreram 315 (13%) óbitos no período do estudo; 93 (30%) tinham como causa uma doença definidora de Aids da lista do Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. No total 232 óbitos (74%) foram relacionados à imunodeficiência após aplicar o CoDe. As infecções foram as causas mais comuns, tanto nos óbitos relacionados (76%) como não relacionados (47%) à imunodeficiência, seguindo-se de malignidades (5%) no primeiro grupo e de causas externas (16%), malignidades (12%) e doenças cardiovasculares (11%) no segundo. A tuberculose compreendeu 70% das infecções definidoras de imunodeficiência.

CONCLUSÕES

Infecções oportunistas e doenças do envelhecimento foram as causas mais frequentes de óbito, imprimindo carga múltipla de doenças aos serviços de saúde. O sistema CoDe aumenta a probabilidade de classificar os óbitos com maior precisão em pessoas vivendo com HIV/Aids.

Trends and characteristics of all-cause mortality among HIV-infected inpatients during the HAART era (2006-2015) in Shanghai, China

Globally, the overall mortality rate among HIV-infected patients has significantly declined during the HAART era. Deaths among HIV-infected inpatients need to be characterized in order to formulate intervention strategies to further improve medical care for this population and their prognosis. In the current study, deaths among HIV-infected inpatients from 2006 to 2015 at a medical center for HIV infection and AIDS patient care in Shanghai, China were retrospectively analyzed. Trends in mortality rates and the proportion of deaths caused by AIDS or non-AIDS-related illnesses were evaluated. A bivariate analysis was performed to identify the demographic and clinical factors associated with AIDS or non-AIDS-related deaths among HIV-infected inpatients. Among 6,473 HIV-infected patients who were discharged from 2006 to 2015, 326 deaths (5.04%) were identified. The yearly mortality rate declined significantly over time (χ² = 34.41, p < 0.001). Results revealed that most deaths were attributed to AIDS-related illnesses (76.9 %, 233/303), and the proportion of causes of death did not change significantly over time (χ² = 13.847, p = 0.127). Bivariate analysis identified characteristic factors associated with AIDS-related mortality. Compared to patients who died of non-AIDS illnesses, patients who died of AIDS-related illnesses had a CD4+ T cell count lower than 50 cells/μL (OR 4.587, 2.377-8.850) and fewer liver (OR 0.391, 0.177-0.866) or renal comorbidities (OR 0.188, 0.067-0.523) on admission. Results indicated that the overall in-hospital mortality rate among HIV-infected patients has declined over the past decade. However, AIDS-related illnesses were still the major causes of deaths among HIV-infected inpatients, suggesting that further efforts are needed to improve AIDS care in China.

Cause-Specific Mortality in HIV-Positive Patients Who Survived Ten Years after Starting Antiretroviral Therapy

OBJECTIVES

To estimate mortality rates and prognostic factors in HIV-positive patients who started combination antiretroviral therapy between 1996-1999 and survived for more than ten years.

METHODS

We used data from 18 European and North American HIV cohort studies contributing to the Antiretroviral Therapy Cohort Collaboration. We followed up patients from ten years after start of combination antiretroviral therapy. We estimated overall and cause-specific mortality rate ratios for age, sex, transmission through injection drug use, AIDS, CD4 count and HIV-1 RNA.

RESULTS

During 50,593 person years 656/13,011 (5%) patients died. Older age, male sex, injecting drug use transmission, AIDS, and low CD4 count and detectable viral replication ten years after starting combination antiretroviral therapy were associated with higher subsequent mortality. CD4 count at ART start did not predict mortality in models adjusted for patient characteristics ten years after start of antiretroviral therapy. The most frequent causes of death (among 340 classified) were non-AIDS cancer, AIDS, cardiovascular, and liver-related disease. Older age was strongly associated with cardiovascular mortality, injecting drug use transmission with non-AIDS infection and liver-related mortality, and low CD4 and detectable viral replication ten years after starting antiretroviral therapy with AIDS mortality. Five-year mortality risk was <5% in 60% of all patients, and in 30% of those aged over 60 years.

CONCLUSIONS

Viral replication, lower CD4 count, prior AIDS, and transmission via injecting drug use continue to predict higher all-cause and AIDS-related mortality in patients treated with combination antiretroviral therapy for over a decade. Deaths from AIDS and non-AIDS infection are less frequent than deaths from other non-AIDS causes.

Associations between HIV-RNA-based indicators and virological and clinical outcomes

OBJECTIVES

To evaluate and compare the performance of six HIV-RNA-based quality of care indicators for predicting short-term and long-term outcomes.

DESIGN

Multinational cohort study.

METHODS

We included EuroSIDA patients on antiretroviral therapy (ART) with at least three viral load measurements after baseline (the latest of 01/01/2001 or entry into EuroSIDA). Using multivariate Poisson regression, we modelled the association between short-term (resistance, triple-class failure) and long-term (all-cause mortality, any AIDS/non-AIDS clinical event) outcomes and the indicators: viraemia copy years; consecutive months with viral load ≥ 50 copies/ml; percentage of time on ART spent fully suppressed (%FS); stable on ART; 48 weeks snapshot; and current viral load. Indicators were compared using area under the ROC curve (AUC) and different measures of model fit.

RESULTS

Adjusted incidence rate ratios for all outcomes tended to increase with increasing viraemia copy years, number of consecutive months with viral load ≥ 50 copies/ml, current viral load and with lower %FS, but the gradient of increased risk was weak across strata. None of the indicators reliably identified those at risk of long-term outcomes (AUC 0.54-0.58), but performed consistently better with short-term outcomes [triple class failure (AUC 0.67-0.76) and resistance (AUC 0.64-0.79)]. Goodness of fit varied with the outcome evaluated, but differences between indicators were small.

CONCLUSION

Differences between quality of care indicators were small and no indicator performed consistently better than current viral load. Given the simplicity in assessing and interpreting this indicator, we propose to use current viral load when HIV-RNA-based indicators are used to evaluate the efficacy of ART programs.

Trends in hospital deaths among human immunodeficiency virus-infected patients during the antiretroviral therapy era, 1995 to 2011

OBJECTIVE

Mortality in hospitalized human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected patients is not well described. We sought to characterize in-hospital deaths among HIV-infected patients in the antiretroviral (ART) era and identify factors associated with mortality.

METHODS

We reviewed the medical records of hospitalized HIV-infected patients who died from January 1, 1995 to December 31, 2011 at an urban teaching hospital. We evaluated trends in early and late ART use and deaths due to acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) and non-AIDS, and identified clinical and demographic correlates of non-AIDS deaths.

RESULTS

In-hospital deaths declined significantly from 1995 to 2011 (P < 0.0001); those attributable to non-AIDS increased (43% to 70.5%, P < 0.0001). Non-AIDS deaths were most commonly caused by non-AIDS infection (20.3%), cardiovascular (11.3%) and liver disease (8.5%), and non-AIDS malignancy (7.8%). Patients with non-AIDS compared to AIDS-related deaths were older (median age 48 vs 40 years, P < 0.0001), more likely to be on ART (74.1% vs 55.8%, P = 0.0001), less likely to have a CD4 count of <200 cells/mm(3) (47.2% vs 97.1%, P < 0.0001), and more likely to have an HIV viral load of ≤400 copies/mL (38.1% vs 4.1%, P < 0.0001). Non-AIDS deaths were associated with 4.5 and 4.2 times greater likelihood of comorbid underlying liver and cardiovascular disease, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Non-AIDS deaths increased significantly during the ART era and are now the most common cause of in-hospital deaths; non-AIDS infection, cardiovascular and liver disease, and malignancies were major contributors to mortality. Higher CD4 cell count, liver, and cardiovascular comorbidities were most strongly associated with non-AIDS deaths. Interventions targeting non-AIDS-associated conditions are needed to reduce inpatient mortality among HIV-infected patients.

Liver-related death among HIV/hepatitis C virus-co-infected individuals: implications for the era of directly acting antivirals

BACKGROUND

Potent, less toxic, directly acting antivirals (DAAs) for treatment of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection promise to improve HCV cure rates among HIV/HCV-co-infected individuals. However, the costs of treatment will necessitate prioritization of those at greatest risk of liver-related death (LRD) for therapy. This study aims to provide guidance on who should be prioritized for DAA treatment.

METHODS

Three thousand, nine hundred and forty-one HCV antibody-positive PSHREG and FIB-4 are names not acronyms (EuroSIDA) patients with follow-up after 1 January 2000 were included, with causes of death classified using Coding causes of Death in HIV (CoDe) methodology. Crude death rates, competing-risks Cox proportional-hazards models and cumulative incidence functions were used to describe factors associated with LRD.

RESULTS

LRD accounted for 145 of 670 (21.6%) deaths in the study population. LRD rates peaked in those aged 35-45 years, and occurred almost exclusively in those with at least F2 fibrosis at baseline. In adjusted Cox models, risk factors for LRD included F4 or F2/F3 fibrosis [sub-distribution hazard ratio (sHR) 6.3, 95% confidence interval (CI) 4.1-9.6; and sHR 2.5, 95% CI 1.5-4.2 vs. F0/F1, respectively), CD4 cell count (sHR 0.83, 95% CI 0.73-0.95 per doubling) and hepatitis B surface antigen-positive (sHR 2.2, 95% CI 1.3-3.5 vs. hepatitis B surface antigen-negative). The 5-year probability of LRD was low in those with F0/F1 fibrosis (sHR 2.2%, 95% CI 1.7-2.9), but substantial in those with F2/F3 and F4 fibrosis (sHR 10.3%, 95% CI 7.6-13.5; and sHR 14.0%, 95% CI 10.3-18.3, respectively).

CONCLUSION

Treatment with DAAs should be prioritized for those with at least F2 fibrosis. Early initiation of cART with the aim of avoiding low CD4 cell counts should be considered essential to decrease the risk of LRD and the need for HCV treatment.

Impact of risk factors for specific causes of death in the first and subsequent years of antiretroviral therapy among HIV-infected patients

Among HIV-infected patients who initiated antiretroviral therapy (ART), patterns of cause-specific death varied by ART duration and were strongly related to age, sex, and transmission risk group. Deaths from non-AIDS malignancies were much more frequent than those from cardiovascular disease.

Background. Patterns of cause-specific mortality in individuals infected with human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) are changing dramatically in the era of antiretroviral therapy (ART).

Methods. Sixteen cohorts from Europe and North America contributed data on adult patients followed from the start of ART. Procedures for coding causes of death were standardized. Estimated hazard ratios (HRs) were adjusted for transmission risk group, sex, age, year of ART initiation, baseline CD4 count, viral load, and AIDS status, before and after the first year of ART.

Results. A total of 4237 of 65 121 (6.5%) patients died (median, 4.5 years follow-up). Rates of AIDS death decreased substantially with time since starting ART, but mortality from non-AIDS malignancy increased (rate ratio, 1.04 per year; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.0–1.1). Higher mortality in men than women during the first year of ART was mostly due to non-AIDS malignancy and liver-related deaths. Associations with age were strongest for cardiovascular disease, heart/vascular, and malignancy deaths. Patients with presumed transmission through injection drug use had higher rates of all causes of death, particularly for liver-related causes (HRs compared with men who have sex with men: 18.1 [95% CI, 6.2–52.7] during the first year of ART and 9.1 [95% CI, 5.8–14.2] thereafter). There was a persistent role of CD4 count at baseline and at 12 months in predicting AIDS, non-AIDS infection, and non-AIDS malignancy deaths. Lack of viral suppression on ART was associated with AIDS, non-AIDS infection, and other causes of death.

Conclusions. Better understanding of patterns of and risk factors for cause-specific mortality in the ART era can aid in development of appropriate care for HIV-infected individuals and inform guidelines for risk factor management.

Deteriorating renal function and clinical outcomes in HIV-positive persons

OBJECTIVES

To determine the relationship between measures of renal function [current estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and proportion of follow-up with a low eGFR (%FU ≤60 ml/min)] and fatal/ nonfatal AIDS, non-AIDS events and all-cause mortality.

DESIGN

An observational, longitudinal cohort study of 12 155 persons from EuroSIDA.

METHODS

Persons with at least one eGFR measurement after 1 January 2004, using the CKD-EPI formula, were included. Poisson regression analyses were used to determine whether current eGFR or %FU of 60 ml/min or less were independent prognostic markers for clinical events.

RESULTS

During 61 425 person-years of follow-up (PYFU), the crude incidence of deaths was 11.1/1000 PYFU [95% confidence interval (CI) 10.0-12.1] at current eGFR more than 90 ml/min and 199.6 (95% CI 1144.3-254.3/1000 PYFU) when current eGFR was 30 ml/min or less. Corresponding figures for AIDS were 12.2 (11.1-13.3) and 63.9 (36.5-103.7) and for non-AIDS were 16.0 (14.8-17.3) and 203.6 (147.7-259.5). After adjustment, current eGFR of 30 ml/min or less was a strong predictor of death [adjusted incidence rate ratios (aIRR) 4.35; 95% CI 3.20-5.91] and non-AIDS events (3.63; 95% CI 2.57-5.13), although the relationship with AIDS was less strong (1.45; 95% CI 1.01-2.08). After adjustment, %FU of 60 ml/min or less was associated with a 22% increased incidence of death (aIRR 1.22 per 10% longer; 95% CI 1.18-1.27), a 13% increased incidence of non-AIDS events (95% CI 1.08-1.18) and a 15% increased incidence of AIDS events (95% CI 1.06-1.24).

CONCLUSION

Both current eGFR and %FU of 60 ml/min or less were associated with death and non-AIDS events in HIV-positive persons. Our findings highlight the association between underlying renal dysfunction and morbidity and mortality in HIV infection, although reverse causality cannot be excluded.

Immuno-virological discordance and the risk of non-AIDS and AIDS events in a large observational cohort of HIV-patients in Europe

BACKGROUND

The impact of immunosuppression despite virological suppression (immuno-virological discordance, ID) on the risk of developing fatal and non-fatal AIDS/non-AIDS events is unclear and remains to be elucidated.

METHODS

Patients in EuroSIDA starting at least 1 new antiretroviral drug with CD4<350 cells/µl and viral load (VL)>500 copies/mL were followed-up from the first day of VL< = 50 copies/ml until a new fatal/non-fatal non-AIDS/AIDS event. Considered non-AIDS events included non-AIDS malignancies, pancreatitis, severe liver disease with hepatic encephalopathy (>grade 3), cardio- and cerebrovascular events, and end-stage renal disease. Patients were classified over time according to whether current CD4 count was above (non-ID) or below (ID) baseline level. Relative rates (RR) of events were calculated for ID vs. non-ID using adjusted Poisson regression models.

RESULTS

2,913 patients contributed 11,491 person-years for the analysis of non-AIDS. 241 pre-specified non-AIDS events (including 84 deaths) and 89 AIDS events (including 10 deaths) occurred. The RR of developing pre-specified non-AIDS events for ID vs. non-ID was 1.96 (95% CI 1.37-2.81, p<0.001) in unadjusted analysis and 1.43 (0.94-2.17, p = 0.095) after controlling for current CD4 count. ID was not associated with the risk of AIDS events (aRR 0.76, 95% CI 0.41-1.38, p = 0.361).

CONCLUSION

Compared to CD4 responders, patients with immuno-virological discordance may be at increased risk of developing non-AIDS events. Further studies are warranted to establish whether in patients with ID, strategies to directly modify CD4 count response may be needed besides the use of ART.

A comparison of estimated glomerular filtration rates using Cockcroft-Gault and the Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration estimating equations in HIV infection

OBJECTIVES

The aim of this study was to determine whether the Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration (CKD-EPI)- or Cockcroft-Gault (CG)-based estimated glomerular filtration rates (eGFRs) performs better in the cohort setting for predicting moderate/advanced chronic kidney disease (CKD) or end-stage renal disease (ESRD).

METHODS

A total of 9521 persons in the EuroSIDA study contributed 133 873 eGFRs. Poisson regression was used to model the incidence of moderate and advanced CKD (confirmed eGFR < 60 and < 30 mL/min/1.73 m(2) , respectively) or ESRD (fatal/nonfatal) using CG and CKD-EPI eGFRs.

RESULTS

Of 133 873 eGFR values, the ratio of CG to CKD-EPI was ≥ 1.1 in 22 092 (16.5%) and the difference between them (CG minus CKD-EPI) was ≥ 10 mL/min/1.73 m(2) in 20 867 (15.6%). Differences between CKD-EPI and CG were much greater when CG was not standardized for body surface area (BSA). A total of 403 persons developed moderate CKD using CG [incidence 8.9/1000 person-years of follow-up (PYFU); 95% confidence interval (CI) 8.0-9.8] and 364 using CKD-EPI (incidence 7.3/1000 PYFU; 95% CI 6.5-8.0). CG-derived eGFRs were equal to CKD-EPI-derived eGFRs at predicting ESRD (n = 36) and death (n = 565), as measured by the Akaike information criterion. CG-based moderate and advanced CKDs were associated with ESRD [adjusted incidence rate ratio (aIRR) 7.17; 95% CI 2.65-19.36 and aIRR 23.46; 95% CI 8.54-64.48, respectively], as were CKD-EPI-based moderate and advanced CKDs (aIRR 12.41; 95% CI 4.74-32.51 and aIRR 12.44; 95% CI 4.83-32.03, respectively).

CONCLUSIONS

Differences between eGFRs using CG adjusted for BSA or CKD-EPI were modest. In the absence of a gold standard, the two formulae predicted clinical outcomes with equal precision and can be used to estimate GFR in HIV-positive persons.

Does hepatitis C viremia or genotype predict the risk of mortality in individuals co-infected with HIV?

BACKGROUND & AIMS

The influence of HCV-RNA levels and genotype on HCV disease progression is not well studied. The prognostic value of these markers was investigated in HIV/HCV co-infected individuals from the EuroSIDA cohort.

METHODS

EuroSIDA is a prospective cohort of 18,295 HIV-1 infected patients in 105 centres across Europe, Israel, and Argentina. All subjects with known HCV antibody (HCVAb) status (n=13,025) were enrolled in the present study.

RESULTS

4044 (31.0%) patients had detectable HCVAb. After adjustment, HCVAb+ patients had an increased incidence of liver-related death (LRD) compared to HCVAb- individuals (IRR 8.90; 95% CI 5.60-14.14, p<0.0001). Information on HCV-RNA was available for 2709 (67.0%) HCVAb+ patients and 2010 (74.2%) were HCV-RNA+. Of 1907 patients with measured HCV genotype, 1008 (52.9%), 62 (3.3%), 567 (29.7%), and 270 (14.2%) were infected with genotype 1, 2, 3 and 4, respectively. Patients with detectable HCV-RNA had similar incidence of non-LRD, but higher incidence of LRD compared to HCVAb+ aviremic patients (adjusted IRR 1.18; 95% CI 0.93-1.50, p=0.17) and (adjusted IRR 2.11; 95% CI 1.30-3.42, p=0.0025), respectively. In patients with HCV viremia, HCV-RNA levels and HCV genotype did not influence the risk of non-LRD or LRD.

CONCLUSIONS

HCV seropositive HIV patients had a 9-fold increased risk of LRD compared to patients who were HCV seronegative. Risk of death from any cause or LRD was not influenced by level of HCV viremia or HCV genotype.

Hyaluronic acid levels predict risk of hepatic encephalopathy and liver-related death in HIV/viral hepatitis coinfected patients

Background

Whereas it is well established that various soluble biomarkers can predict level of liver fibrosis, their ability to predict liver-related clinical outcomes is less clearly established, in particular among HIV/viral hepatitis co-infected persons. We investigated plasma hyaluronic acid’s (HA) ability to predict risk of liver-related events (LRE; hepatic coma or liver-related death) in the EuroSIDA study.

Methods

Patients included were positive for anti-HCV and/or HBsAg with at least one available plasma sample. The earliest collected plasma sample was tested for HA (normal range 0–75 ng/mL) and levels were associated with risk of LRE. Change in HA per year of follow-up was estimated after measuring HA levels in latest sample before the LRE for those experiencing this outcome (cases) and in a random selection of one sixth of the remaining patients (controls).

Results

During a median of 8.2 years of follow-up, 84/1252 (6.7%) patients developed a LRE. Baseline median (IQR) HA in those without and with a LRE was 31.8 (17.2–62.6) and 221.6 ng/mL (74.9–611.3), respectively (p<0.0001). After adjustment, HA levels predicted risk of contracting a LRE; incidence rate ratios for HA levels 75–250 or ≥250 vs. <75 ng/mL were 5.22 (95% CI 2.86–9.26, p<0.0007) and 28.22 (95% CI 14.95–46.00, p<0.0001), respectively. Median HA levels increased substantially prior to developing a LRE (107.6 ng/mL, IQR 0.8 to 251.1), but remained stable for controls (1.0 ng/mL, IQR –5.1 to 8.2), (p<0.0001 comparing cases and controls), and greater increases predicted risk of a LRE in adjusted models (p<0.001).

Conclusions

An elevated level of plasma HA, particularly if the level further increases over time, substantially increases the risk of contracting LRE over the next five years. HA is an inexpensive, standardized and non-invasive supplement to other methods aimed at identifying HIV/viral hepatitis co-infected patients at risk of hepatic complications.

CD4 cell count and viral load-specific rates of AIDS, non-AIDS and deaths according to current antiretroviral use

BACKGROUND

CD4 cell count and viral loads are used in clinical trials as surrogate endpoints for assessing efficacy of newly available antiretrovirals. If antiretrovirals act through other pathways or increase the risk of disease this would not be identified prior to licensing. The aim of this study was to investigate the CD4 cell count and viral load-specific rates of fatal and nonfatal AIDS and non-AIDS events according to current antiretrovirals.

METHODS

Poisson regression was used to compare overall events (fatal or nonfatal AIDS, non-AIDS or death), AIDS events (fatal and nonfatal) or non-AIDS events (fatal or nonfatal) for specific nucleoside pairs and third drugs used with more than 1000 person-years of follow-up (PYFU) after 1 January 2001.

RESULTS

Nine thousand, eight hundred and one patients contributed 42372.5 PYFU, during which 1203 (437 AIDS and 766 non-AIDS) events occurred. After adjustment, there was weak evidence of a difference in the overall events rates between nucleoside pairs (global P-value = 0.084), and third drugs (global P-value = 0.031). As compared to zidovudine/lamivudine, patients taking abacavir/lamivudine [adjusted incidence rate ratio (aIRR) 1.22; 95% CI 0.99-1.49] and abacavir and one other nucleoside [aIRR 1.51; 95% CI 1.14-2.02] had an increased incidence of overall events. Comparing the third drugs, those taking unboosted atazanavir had an increased incidence of overall events compared with those taking efavirenz (aIRR 1.46; 95% CI 1.09-1.95).

CONCLUSION

There was little evidence of substantial differences between antiretrovirals in the incidence of clinical disease for a given CD4 cell count or viral load, suggesting there are unlikely to be major unidentified adverse effects of specific antiretrovirals.

Differences in the causes of death of HIV-positive patients in a cohort study by data sources and coding algorithms

OBJECTIVES

To compare causes of death (CoDs) from two independent sources: National Basic Death File (NBDF) and deaths reported to the Spanish HIV Research cohort [Cohort de adultos con infección por VIH de la Red de Investigación en SIDA CoRIS)] and compare the two coding algorithms: International Classification of Diseases, 10th revision (ICD-10) and revised version of Coding Causes of Death in HIV (revised CoDe).

METHODS

Between 2004 and 2008, CoDs were obtained from the cohort records (free text, multiple causes) and also from NBDF (ICD-10). CoDs from CoRIS were coded according to ICD-10 and revised CoDe by a panel. Deaths were compared by 13 disease groups: HIV/AIDS, liver diseases, malignancies, infections, cardiovascular, blood disorders, pulmonary, central nervous system, drug use, external, suicide, other causes and ill defined.

RESULTS

There were 160 deaths. Concordance for the 13 groups was observed in 111 (69%) cases for the two sources and in 115 (72%) cases for the two coding algorithms. According to revised CoDe, the commonest CoDs were HIV/AIDS (53%), non-AIDS malignancies (11%) and liver related (9%), these percentages were similar, 57, 10 and 8%, respectively, for NBDF (coded as ICD-10). When using ICD-10 to code deaths in CoRIS, wherein HIV infection was known in everyone, the proportion of non-AIDS malignancies was 13%, liver-related accounted for 3%, while HIV/AIDS reached 70% due to liver-related, infections and ill-defined causes being coded as HIV/AIDS.

CONCLUSION

There is substantial variation in CoDs in HIV-infected persons according to sources and algorithms. ICD-10 in patients known to be HIV-positive overestimates HIV/AIDS-related deaths at the expense of underestimating liver-related diseases, infections and ill defined causes. CoDe seems as the best option for cohort studies.

Regional differences in AIDS and non-AIDS related mortality in HIV-positive individuals across Europe and Argentina: the EuroSIDA study

Background

Differences in access to care and treatment have been reported in Eastern Europe, a region with one of the fastest growing HIV epidemics, compared to the rest of Europe. This analysis aimed to establish whether there are regional differences in the mortality rate of HIV-positive individuals across Europe, and Argentina.

Methods

13,310 individuals under follow-up were included in the analysis. Poisson regression investigated factors associated with the risk of death.

Findings

During 82,212 person years of follow-up (PYFU) 1,147 individuals died (mortality rate 14.0 per 1,000 PYFU (95% confidence interval [CI] 13.1–14.8). Significant differences between regions were seen in the rate of all-cause, AIDS and non-AIDS related mortality (global p<0.0001 for all three endpoints). Compared to South Europe, after adjusting for baseline demographics, laboratory measurements and treatment, a higher rate of AIDS related mortality was observed in East Europe (IRR 2.90, 95%CI 1.97–4.28, p<.0001), and a higher rate of non-AIDS related mortality in North Europe (IRR 1.51, 95%CI 1.24–1.82, p<.0001). The differences observed in North Europe decreased over calendar-time, in 2009–2011, the higher rate of non-AIDS related mortality was no longer significantly different to South Europe (IRR 1.07, 95%CI 0.66–1.75, p = 0.77). However, in 2009–2011, there remained a higher rate of AIDS-related mortality (IRR 2.41, 95%CI 1.11–5.25, p = 0.02) in East Europe compared to South Europe in adjusted analysis.

Interpretations

There are significant differences in the rate of all-cause mortality among HIV-positive individuals across different regions of Europe and Argentina. Individuals in Eastern Europe had an increased risk of mortality from AIDS related causes and individuals in North Europe had the highest rate of non-AIDS related mortality. These findings are important for understanding and reviewing HIV treatment strategies and policies across the European region.

Long-term exposure to combination antiretroviral therapy and risk of death from specific causes: no evidence for any previously unidentified increased risk due to antiretroviral therapy

BACKGROUND

Despite the known substantial benefits of combination antiretroviral therapy (cART), cumulative adverse effects could still limit the overall long-term treatment benefit. Therefore we investigated changes in the rate of death with increasing exposure to cART.

METHODS

A total of 12 069 patients were followed from baseline, which was defined as the time of starting cART or enrolment into EuroSIDA whichever occurred later, until death or 6 months after last follow-up visit. Incidence rates of death were calculated per 1000 person-years of follow-up (PYFU) and stratified by time of exposure to cART (≥3 antiretrovirals): less than 2, 2-3.99, 4-5.99, 6-7.99 and more than 8 years. Duration of cART exposure was the cumulative time actually receiving cART. Poisson regression models were fitted for each cause of death separately.

RESULTS

A total of 1297 patients died during 70,613 PYFU [incidence rate 18.3 per 1000 PYFU, 95% confidence interval (CI) 17.4-19.4], 413 due to AIDS (5.85, 95% CI 5.28-6.41) and 884 due to non-AIDS-related cause (12.5, 95% CI 11.7-13.3). After adjustment for confounding variables, including baseline CD4 cell count and HIV RNA, there was a significant decrease in the rate of all-cause and AIDS-related death between 2 and 3.99 years and longer exposure time. In the first 2 years on cART the risk of non-AIDS death was significantly lower, but no significant difference in the rate of non-AIDS-related deaths between 2 and 3.99 years and longer exposure to cART was observed.

CONCLUSION

In conclusion, we found no evidence of an increased risk of both all-cause and non-AIDS-related deaths with long-term cumulative cART exposure.

Fatal and nonfatal AIDS and non-AIDS events in HIV-1-positive individuals with high CD4 cell counts according to viral load strata

BACKGROUND

This study compared the incidence of fatal and nonfatal AIDS and non-AIDS events in HIV-positive individuals with a CD4 cell count more than 350  cells/μl among viral load strata: low (<500  copies/ml), intermediate (500-9999.9  copies/ml) and high (≥ 10000  copies/ml).

METHODS

Individuals contributed person-years at risk if their most recent CD4 cell count was more than 350  cells/μl. Follow-up was censored if their CD4 cell count dropped below 350  cells/μl. Poisson regression analysis investigated the relationship between viraemia and the incidence of AIDS and non-AIDS events.

RESULTS

Three hundred and fifty-four AIDS events occurred during 51 732  person-years of follow-up (PYFU), crude incidence rate of AIDS across the three strata was 0.53, 0.90 and 2.12 per 100 PYFU, respectively. After adjustment, a higher rate of AIDS was observed in individuals with moderate [incidence rate ratio (IRR) 1.44, 1.02-2.05, P = 0.03] and high viraemia had a higher rate (IRR 3.91, 2.89-5.89, P < 0.0001) compared with low viraemia. Five hundred and seventy-two non-AIDS events occurred during 43 784 PYFU, the crude incidence rates were 1.28, 1.52, and 1.38 per 100 PYFU, respectively. After adjustment, particularly for age, region of Europe and starting combination antiretroviral therapy, there was a 61% (IRR 1.61, 1.21-2.14, P = 0.001) and 66% (IRR 1.66, 1.17-2.32, P = 0.004) higher rate of non-AIDS in individuals with intermediate and high viraemia compared with low viraemia.

CONCLUSION

In individuals with a CD4 cell count more than 350  cells/μl, an increased incidence of AIDS and a slightly increased incidence of non-AIDS was found in those with uncontrolled viral replication. The association with AIDS was clear and consistent. However, the association with non-AIDS was only apparent after adjustment and no differences were observed between intermediate and high viraemia.