SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence in three Kenyan health and demographic surveillance sites, December 2020-May 2021

Impact of COVID-19 on mortality in coastal Kenya: a longitudinal open cohort study

The mortality impact of COVID-19 in Africa remains controversial because most countries lack vital registration. We analysed excess mortality in Kilifi Health and Demographic Surveillance System, Kenya, using 9 years of baseline data. SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence studies suggest most adults here were infected before May 2022. During 5 waves of COVID-19 (April 2020-May 2022) an overall excess mortality of 4.8% (95% PI 1.2%, 9.4%) concealed a significant excess (11.6%, 95% PI 5.9%, 18.9%) among older adults ( ≥ 65 years) and a deficit among children aged 1-14 years (-7.7%, 95% PI -20.9%, 6.9%). The excess mortality rate for January 2020-December 2021, age-standardised to the Kenyan population, was 27.4/100,000 person-years (95% CI 23.2-31.6). In Coastal Kenya, excess mortality during the pandemic was substantially lower than in most high-income countries but the significant excess mortality in older adults emphasizes the value of achieving high vaccine coverage in this risk group.

Comparative analysis of SARS-CoV-2 detection methods using stool, blood, and nasopharyngeal swab samples

Introduction

as a public health policy, the ongoing global coronavirus disease 2019 vaccination drives require continuous tracking, tracing, and testing of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). Diagnostic testing is important in virus detection and understanding its spread for timely intervention. This is especially important for low-income settings where the majority of the population remains untested. This is well supported by the fact that of about 9% of the Kenyan population had been tested for the virus.

Methods

this was a cross-sectional study conducted at the Kisumu and Siaya Referral Hospitals in Kenya. Here we report on the sensitivity and specificity of the rapid antigen detection test (Ag-RDT) of SARS-CoV-2 compared with the quantitative reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction (RT-qPCR) using stool and nasopharyngeal swab samples. Further, the mean Immunoglobulin M (IgM) and Immunoglobulin G (IgG) antibody levels among symptomatic and asymptomatic individuals in western Kenya were evaluated.

Results

the sensitivity and specificity of Ag-RDT were 76.3% (95% CI, 59.8-88.6%) and 96.3% (95% CI, 87.3-99.5%) with a negative and positive predictive value of 85% (95% CI, 73.8%-93.0%) and 93% (95% CI, 78.6%-99.2%) respectively. There was substantial agreement of 88% (Kappa value of 0.75, 95% CI, 0.74-0.77) between Ag-RDT and nasopharyngeal swab RT-qPCR, and between stool and nasopharyngeal swab RT-qPCR results (83.7% agreement, Kapa value 0.62, 95% CI 0.45-0.80). The mean IgM and IgG antibody response to SARS-CoV-2 were not different in asymptomatic individuals, 1.11 (95% CI, 0.78-1.44) and 0.88 (95% CI, 0.65-1.11) compared to symptomatic individuals 4.30 (95% CI 3.30-5.31) and 4.16 (95% CI 3.32 -5.00).

Conclusion

the choice of an appropriate SARS-CoV-2 diagnostic, screening, and surveillance test should be guided by the specific study needs and a rational approach for optimal results.

Symptom prevalence and secondary attack rate of SARS-CoV-2 in rural Kenyan households: A prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

We estimated the secondary attack rate of SARS-CoV-2 among household contacts of PCR-confirmed cases of COVID-19 in rural Kenya and analysed risk factors for transmission.

METHODS

We enrolled incident PCR-confirmed cases and their household members. At baseline, a questionnaire, a blood sample, and naso-oropharyngeal swabs were collected. Household members were followed 4, 7, 10, 14, 21 and 28 days after the date of the first PCR-positive in the household; naso-oropharyngeal swabs were collected at each visit and used to define secondary cases. Blood samples were collected every 1-2 weeks. Symptoms were collected in a daily symptom diary. We used binomial regression to estimate secondary attack rates and survival analysis to analyse risk factors for transmission.

RESULTS

A total of 119 households with at least one positive household member were enrolled between October 2020 and September 2022, comprising 503 household members; 226 remained in follow-up at day 14 (45%). A total of 43 secondary cases arose within 14 days of identification of the primary case, and 81 household members remained negative. The 7-day secondary attack rate was 4% (95% CI 1%-10%), the 14-day secondary attack rate was 28% (95% CI 17%-40%). Of 38 secondary cases with data, eight reported symptoms (21%, 95% CI 8%-34%). Antibody to SARS-CoV-2 spike protein at enrolment was not associated with risk of becoming a secondary case.

CONCLUSION

Households in our setting experienced a lower 7-day attack rate than a recent meta-analysis indicated as the global average (23%-43% depending on variant), and infection is mostly asymptomatic in our setting.

SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence and implications for population immunity: Evidence from two Health and Demographic Surveillance System sites in Kenya, February-December 2022

BACKGROUND

We sought to estimate SARS-CoV-2 antibody seroprevalence within representative samples of the Kenyan population during the third year of the COVID-19 pandemic and the second year of COVID-19 vaccine use.

METHODS

We conducted cross-sectional serosurveys among randomly selected, age-stratified samples of Health and Demographic Surveillance System (HDSS) residents in Kilifi and Nairobi. Anti-spike (anti-S) immunoglobulin G (IgG) serostatus was measured using a validated in-house ELISA and antibody concentrations estimated with reference to the WHO International Standard for anti-SARS-CoV-2 immunoglobulin.

RESULTS

HDSS residents were sampled in February-June 2022 (Kilifi HDSS N = 852; Nairobi Urban HDSS N = 851) and in August-December 2022 (N = 850 for both sites). Population-weighted coverage for ≥1 doses of COVID-19 vaccine were 11.1% (9.1-13.2%) among Kilifi HDSS residents by November 2022 and 34.2% (30.7-37.6%) among Nairobi Urban HDSS residents by December 2022. Population-weighted anti-S IgG seroprevalence among Kilifi HDSS residents increased from 69.1% (65.8-72.3%) by May 2022 to 77.4% (74.4-80.2%) by November 2022. Within the Nairobi Urban HDSS, seroprevalence by June 2022 was 88.5% (86.1-90.6%), comparable with seroprevalence by December 2022 (92.2%; 90.2-93.9%). For both surveys, seroprevalence was significantly lower among Kilifi HDSS residents than among Nairobi Urban HDSS residents, as were antibody concentrations (p < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

More than 70% of Kilifi residents and 90% of Nairobi residents were seropositive for anti-S IgG by the end of 2022. There is a potential immunity gap in rural Kenya; implementation of interventions to improve COVID-19 vaccine uptake among sub-groups at increased risk of severe COVID-19 in rural settings is recommended.