Impact of COVID-19 on mortality in coastal Kenya: a longitudinal open cohort study

The mortality impact of COVID-19 in Africa remains controversial because most countries lack vital registration. We analysed excess mortality in Kilifi Health and Demographic Surveillance System, Kenya, using 9 years of baseline data. SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence studies suggest most adults here were infected before May 2022. During 5 waves of COVID-19 (April 2020-May 2022) an overall excess mortality of 4.8% (95% PI 1.2%, 9.4%) concealed a significant excess (11.6%, 95% PI 5.9%, 18.9%) among older adults ( ≥ 65 years) and a deficit among children aged 1-14 years (-7.7%, 95% PI -20.9%, 6.9%). The excess mortality rate for January 2020-December 2021, age-standardised to the Kenyan population, was 27.4/100,000 person-years (95% CI 23.2-31.6). In Coastal Kenya, excess mortality during the pandemic was substantially lower than in most high-income countries but the significant excess mortality in older adults emphasizes the value of achieving high vaccine coverage in this risk group.

Imaging in gynecological disease (25): clinical and ultrasound characteristics of intramural pregnancy

OBJECTIVE

To describe the clinical and sonographic characteristics of intramural pregnancy, as well as the available management options and treatment outcomes.

METHODS

This was a retrospective single-center study of consecutive patients with a sonographic diagnosis of intramural pregnancy between November 2008 and November 2022. An intramural pregnancy was diagnosed on ultrasound when a pregnancy was implanted within the uterine corpus, above the level of the internal cervical os and separate from the interstitial section of the Fallopian tube, and extended beyond the decidual-myometrial junction. Clinical, ultrasound, relevant surgical and histological information and outcomes were retrieved from each patient's record and analyzed.

RESULTS

Eighteen patients were diagnosed with an intramural pregnancy during the study period. Their median age was 35 (range, 28-43) years and the median gestational age at diagnosis was 8 + 1 (range, 5 + 5 to 12 + 0) weeks. Vaginal bleeding with or without abdominal pain was the most common presenting symptom, recorded in eight patients. Nine (50%) patients had a partial and nine (50%) had a complete intramural pregnancy. Embryonic cardiac activity was present in eight (44%) pregnancies. The majority of pregnancies (n = 10 (56%)) were initially managed conservatively, including expectant management in eight (44%) cases, local injection of methotrexate in one (6%) and embryocide in one (6%). Conservative management was successful in nine of the 10 (90%) pregnancies, with a median time to serum human chorionic gonadotropin resolution of 71 (range, 35-143) days. One patient with an ongoing live pregnancy had an emergency hysterectomy for a major vaginal bleed at 20 weeks' gestation. No other patient managed conservatively experienced any significant complication. The remaining eight (44%) patients had primary surgical treatment, comprising transcervical suction curettage in seven (88%) of these cases, while one patient presented with uterine rupture and underwent emergency laparoscopy and repair.

CONCLUSIONS

We describe the ultrasound features of partial and complete intramural pregnancy, demonstrating key diagnostic features. Our series suggests that, when intramural pregnancy is diagnosed before 12 weeks' gestation, it can be managed either conservatively or by surgery, with preservation of reproductive function in most women. © 2023 The Authors. Ultrasound in Obstetrics & Gynecology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of International Society of Ultrasound in Obstetrics and Gynecology.

Psychological impact of simple scoring system for predicting early pregnancy outcome in pregnancy of uncertain viability: randomized controlled trial

OBJECTIVE

To investigate whether psychological wellbeing of women with an intrauterine pregnancy of uncertain viability can be modified during the waiting period to final diagnosis, by offering predictive information regarding the likely outcome of the pregnancy (chance of ongoing viability).

METHODS

This was a single-center two-arm randomized controlled trial conducted over 18 months at a teaching hospital in London, UK. Consecutive eligible women attending the early pregnancy assessment unit with an interim ultrasound finding of intrauterine pregnancy of uncertain viability were recruited. All women were offered a follow-up ultrasound scan after 14 days. Participants were randomized to receive a prediction score for ongoing viability at 14 days or routine care (control). Anxiety, depression and worry symptoms were assessed using validated self-report questionnaires (hospital anxiety and depression scale (HADS), Penn state worry questionnaire (PSWQ)) prior to randomization and at two further timepoints during the waiting period preceding final diagnosis. The change in psychological scores over the study period was analyzed. The secondary outcome was the perceived value of the risk prediction tool reported by participants.

RESULTS

A total of 278 women participated in this study. After adjusting for baseline scores, no difference in anxiety, depression or worry scores was demonstrated between control and intervention groups at either timepoint. Subgroup analysis, first of women with high initial anxiety (HADS > 11) or worry (PSWQ ≥ 45), and second of women with a more favorable predicted prognosis (≥ 75% chance of ongoing viability), demonstrated no difference between intervention and control groups. Despite this, 76/110 (69.1% (95% CI, 60.5-78.4%)) women who provided feedback in the intervention group found it to be helpful and 97/110 (88.2% (95% CI, 81.0-93.7%)) reported that they would use the tool again.

CONCLUSION

Current prediction tools may be useful for healthcare professionals to guide management and optimize utilization of early pregnancy resources. However, in this study, implementation of an accurate tool did not result in an objective measurable benefit to patients in terms of reduction in anxiety, depression and worry symptoms experienced during the waiting period to final outcome compared with women who did not receive a prediction score. © 2022 The Authors. Ultrasound in Obstetrics & Gynecology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of International Society of Ultrasound in Obstetrics and Gynecology.

In praise of Prais-Winsten: An evaluation of methods used to account for autocorrelation in interrupted time series

Interrupted time series are increasingly being used to assess the population impact of public health interventions. These data are usually correlated over time (auto correlated) and this must be accounted for in the analysis. Typically, this is done using either the Prais-Winsten method, the Newey-West method, or autoregressive-moving-average (ARMA) modeling. In this paper, we illustrate these methods via a study of pneumococcal vaccine introduction and explore their performance under 20 simulated autocorrelation scenarios with sample sizes ranging between 20 and 300. We show that in terms of mean square error, the Prais-Winsten and ARMA methods perform best, while in terms of coverage the Prais-Winsten method generally performs better than other methods. All three methods are unbiased. As well as having good statistical properties, the Prais-Winsten method is attractive because it is decision-free and produces a single measure of autocorrelation that can be compared between studies and used to guide sample size calculations. We would therefore encourage analysts to consider using this simple method to analyze interrupted time series.

Quantifying previous SARS-CoV-2 infection through mixture modelling of antibody levels

As countries decide on vaccination strategies and how to ease movement restrictions, estimating the proportion of the population previously infected with SARS-CoV-2 is important for predicting the future burden of COVID-19. This proportion is usually estimated from serosurvey data in two steps: first the proportion above a threshold antibody level is calculated, then the crude estimate is adjusted using external estimates of sensitivity and specificity. A drawback of this approach is that the PCR-confirmed cases used to estimate the sensitivity of the threshold may not be representative of cases in the wider population-e.g., they may be more recently infected and more severely symptomatic. Mixture modelling offers an alternative approach that does not require external data from PCR-confirmed cases. Here we illustrate the bias in the standard threshold-based approach by comparing both approaches using data from several Kenyan serosurveys. We show that the mixture model analysis produces estimates of previous infection that are often substantially higher than the standard threshold analysis.

Pneumococcal conjugate vaccine dose-ranging studies in humans: A systematic review

BACKGROUND

Streptococcus pneumoniae is one of the most common bacterial pathogens of infants and young children. Antibody responses against the pneumococcal polysaccharide capsule are the basis of vaccine-mediated protection. We examined the relationship between the dose of polysaccharide in pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs) and immunogenicity.

METHODS

A systematic search of English publications that evaluated the immunogenicity of varying doses of pneumococcal conjugate vaccines was performed in Medline and Embase (Ovid Sp) databases in August 2019. We included only articles that involved administration of pneumococcal conjugate vaccine in humans and assessed the immunogenicity of more than one serotype-specific saccharide dose. Results were synthesised descriptively due to the heterogeneity of product valency, product content and vaccine schedule.

RESULTS

We identified 1691 articles after de-duplication; 9 studies met our inclusion criteria; 2 in adults, 6 in children and 1 in both. Doses of polysaccharide evaluated ranged from 0.44 mcg to 17.6 mcg. In infants, all doses tested elicited IgG geometric mean concentrations (GMCs) above the established correlate of protection (COP; 0.35 mcg/ml). A month after completion of the administered vaccine schedule, 95% confidence intervals of only three out of all the doses evaluated had GMCs that crossed below the COP. In the adult studies, all adults achieved GMCs that would be considered protective in children who have received 3 standard vaccine doses.

CONCLUSION

For some products, the mean antibody concentrations induced against some pneumococcal serotypes increased with increasing doses of the polysaccharide conjugate, but for other serotypes, there were no clear dose-response relationships or the dose response curves were negative. Fractional doses of polysaccharide which contain less than is included in currently distributed formulations may be useful in the development of higher valency vaccines, or dose-sparing delivery for paediatric use.

Cost-effectiveness of mifepristone and misoprostol versus misoprostol alone for the management of missed miscarriage: an economic evaluation based on the MifeMiso trial

OBJECTIVE

To assess the cost-effectiveness of mifepristone and misoprostol (MifeMiso) compared with misoprostol only for the medical management of a missed miscarriage.

DESIGN

Within-trial economic evaluation and model-based analysis to set the findings in the context of the wider economic evidence for a range of comparators. Incremental costs and outcomes were calculated using nonparametric bootstrapping and reported using cost-effectiveness acceptability curves. Analyses were performed from the perspective of the UK's National Health Service (NHS).

SETTING

Twenty-eight UK NHS early pregnancy units.

SAMPLE

A cohort of 711 women aged 16-39 years with ultrasound evidence of a missed miscarriage.

METHODS

Treatment with mifepristone and misoprostol or with matched placebo and misoprostol tablets.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Cost per additional successfully managed miscarriage and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs).

RESULTS

For the within-trial analysis, MifeMiso intervention resulted in an absolute effect difference of 6.6% (95% CI 0.7-12.5%) per successfully managed miscarriage and a QALYs difference of 0.04% (95% CI -0.01 to 0.1%). The average cost per successfully managed miscarriage was lower in the MifeMiso arm than in the placebo and misoprostol arm, with a cost saving of £182 (95% CI £26-£338). Hence, the MifeMiso intervention dominated the use of misoprostol alone. The model-based analysis showed that the MifeMiso intervention is preferable, compared with expectant management, and this is the current medical management strategy. However, the model-based evidence suggests that the intervention is a less effective but less costly strategy than surgical management.

CONCLUSIONS

The within-trial analysis found that based on cost-effectiveness grounds, the MifeMiso intervention is likely to be recommended by decision makers for the medical management of women presenting with a missed miscarriage.

TWEETABLE ABSTRACT

The combination of mifepristone and misoprostol is more effective and less costly than misoprostol alone for the management of missed miscarriages.

Intra- and interobserver reproducibility of pelvic ultrasound for the detection and measurement of endometriotic lesions

STUDY QUESTION

What is the interobserver and intraobserver reproducibility of pelvic ultrasound for the detection of endometriotic lesions?

SUMMARY ANSWER

Pelvic ultrasound is highly reproducible for the detection of pelvic endometriotic lesions.

WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY

Transvaginal ultrasound (TVS) has been widely adopted as the first-line assessment for the diagnosis and assessment of pelvic endometriosis. Severity of endometriosis as assessed by ultrasound has been shown to have good concordance with laparoscopy (kappa 0.79). The reproducibility of TVS for assessment of ovarian mobility and pouch of Douglas obliteration using the ‘sliding sign’ has already been described in the literature. However, there is no available data in the literature to demonstrate the intraobserver repeatability of measurements for endometriotic cysts and nodules.

STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION

This was a prospective observational cross-sectional study conducted over a period of 12 months. We included 50 consecutive women who were all examined by two operators (A and B) during their clinic attendance.

PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTING, METHODS

The study was carried out in a specialist endometriosis centre. We included all consecutive women who had ultrasound scans performed independently by two experienced operators during the same visit to the clinic. The outcomes of interest were the inter- and intraobserver reproducibility for the detection of endometriotic lesions. We also assessed repeatability of the measurements of lesion size.

MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE

There was a good level of agreement between operator A and operator B in detecting the presence of pelvic endometriotic lesions (k = 0.72). There was a very good level of agreement between operators in identifying endometriotic cysts (k = 0.88) and a good level of agreement in identifying endometriotic nodules (k = 0.61). The inter- and intraobserver repeatability of measuring endometriotic cysts was excellent (intra-class correlation (ICC) ≥ 0.98). There was good interobserver measurement repeatability for bowel nodules (ICC 0.88), but the results for nodules in the posterior compartment were poor (ICC 0.41). The intraobserver repeatability for nodule size measurements was good for both operators (ICC ≥0.86).

LIMITATIONS, REASONS FOR CAUTION

Within this cohort, there was insufficient data to perform a separate analysis for nodule size in the anterior compartment. All examinations were performed within a specialised unit with a high prevalence of deep endometriosis. Our findings may not apply to operators without intensive ultrasound training in the diagnosis of pelvic endometriosis.

WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS

These findings are important because ultrasound has been widely accepted as the first-line investigation for the diagnosis of pelvic endometriosis, which often determines the need for future investigations and treatment. The detection and measurement of bowel nodules is essential for anticipation of surgical risk and planning surgical excision.

STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTEREST(S)

The authors have no conflict of interest. No funding was obtained for this work.

The cost-effectiveness of progesterone in preventing miscarriages in women with early pregnancy bleeding: an economic evaluation based on the PRISM trial

OBJECTIVES

To assess the cost-effectiveness of progesterone compared with placebo in preventing pregnancy loss in women with early pregnancy vaginal bleeding.

DESIGN

Economic evaluation alongside a large multi-centre randomised placebo-controlled trial.

SETTING

Forty-eight UK NHS early pregnancy units.

POPULATION

Four thousand one hundred and fifty-three women aged 16-39 years with bleeding in early pregnancy and ultrasound evidence of an intrauterine sac.

METHODS

An incremental cost-effectiveness analysis was performed from National Health Service (NHS) and NHS and Personal Social Services perspectives. Subgroup analyses were carried out on women with one or more and three or more previous miscarriages.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Cost per additional live birth at ≥34 weeks of gestation.

RESULTS

Progesterone intervention led to an effect difference of 0.022 (95% CI -0.004 to 0.050) in the trial. The mean cost per woman in the progesterone group was £76 (95% CI -£559 to £711) more than the mean cost in the placebo group. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio for progesterone compared with placebo was £3305 per additional live birth. For women with at least one previous miscarriage, progesterone was more effective than placebo with an effect difference of 0.055 (95% CI 0.014-0.096) and this was associated with a cost saving of £322 (95% CI -£1318 to £673).

CONCLUSIONS

The results suggest that progesterone is associated with a small positive impact and a small additional cost. Both subgroup analyses were more favourable, especially for women who had one or more previous miscarriages. Given available evidence, progesterone is likely to be a cost-effective intervention, particularly for women with previous miscarriage(s).

TWEETABLE ABSTRACT

Progesterone treatment is likely to be cost-effective in women with early pregnancy bleeding and a history of miscarriage.

Triaging women with pregnancy of unknown location using two-step protocol including M6 model: clinical implementation study

OBJECTIVE

The M6 risk-prediction model was published as part of a two-step protocol using an initial progesterone level of ≤ 2 nmol/L to identify probable failing pregnancies (Step 1) followed by the M6 model (Step 2). The M6 model has been shown to have good triage performance for stratifying women with a pregnancy of unknown location (PUL) as being at low or high risk of harboring an ectopic pregnancy (EP). This study validated the triage performance of the two-step protocol in clinical practice by evaluating the number of protocol-related adverse events and how effectively patients were triaged.

METHODS

This was a prospective multicenter interventional study of 3272 women with a PUL, carried out between January 2015 and January 2017 in four district general hospitals and four university teaching hospitals in the UK. The final pregnancy outcome was defined as: a failed PUL (FPUL), an intrauterine pregnancy (IUP) or an EP (including persistent PUL (PPUL)). FPUL and IUP were grouped as low-risk and EP/PPUL as high-risk PUL. Serum progesterone and human chorionic gonadotropin (hCG) levels were measured at presentation in all patients. If the initial progesterone level was ≤ 2 nmol/L, patients were discharged and were asked to have a follow-up urine pregnancy test in 2 weeks to confirm a negative result. If the progesterone level was > 2 nmol/L or a measurement had not been taken, hCG level was measured again at 48 h and results were entered into the M6 model. Patients were managed according to the outcome predicted by the protocol. Those classified as 'low risk, probable FPUL' were advised to perform a urine pregnancy test in 2 weeks and those classified as 'low risk, probable IUP' were invited for a scan a week later. When a woman with a PUL was classified as high risk (i.e. risk of EP ≥ 5%) she was reviewed clinically within 48 h. One center used a progesterone cut-off of ≤ 10 nmol/L and its data were analyzed separately. If the recommended management protocol was not adhered to, this was recorded as a protocol deviation and classified as: unscheduled visit for clinician reason, unscheduled visit for patient reason or incorrect timing of blood test or ultrasound scan. The classifications outlined in the UK Good Clinical Practice (GCP) guidelines were used to evaluate the incidence of adverse events. Data were analyzed using descriptive statistics.

RESULTS

Of the 3272 women with a PUL, 2625 were included in the final analysis (317 met the exclusion criteria or were lost to follow-up, while 330 were evaluated using a progesterone cut-off of ≤ 10 nmol/L). Initial progesterone results were available for 2392 (91.1%) patients. In Step 1, 407 (15.5%) patients were classified as low risk (progesterone ≤ 2 nmol/L), of whom seven (1.7%) were ultimately diagnosed with an EP. In 279 of the remaining 2218 women with a PUL, the M6 model was not applied owing to protocol deviation or because the outcome was already known (usually on the basis of an ultrasound scan) before a second hCG reading was taken; of these patients, 30 were diagnosed with an EP. In Step 2, 1038 women with a PUL were classified as low risk, of whom eight (0.8%) had a final outcome of EP. Of 901 women classified as high risk at Step 2, 275 (30.5%) had an EP. Therefore, 275/320 (85.9%) EPs were correctly classified as high risk. Overall, 1445/2625 PUL (55.0%) were classified as low risk, of which 15 (1.0%) were EP. None of these cases resulted in a ruptured EP or significant clinical harm. Sixty-two women participating in the study had an adverse event, but no woman had a serious adverse event as defined in the UK GCP guidelines.

CONCLUSIONS

This study has shown that the two-step protocol incorporating the M6 model effectively triaged the majority of women with a PUL as being at low risk of an EP, minimizing the follow-up required for these patients after just two visits. There were few misclassified EPs and none of these women came to significant clinical harm or suffered a serious adverse clinical event. The two-step protocol incorporating the M6 model is an effective and clinically safe way of rationalizing the management of women with a PUL. Copyright © 2019 ISUOG. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Effect of morphological type of extrauterine ectopic pregnancy on accuracy of preoperative ultrasound diagnosis

OBJECTIVES

To assess the overall accuracy of transvaginal ultrasound (TVS) for diagnosis of all types of extrauterine ectopic pregnancy (EUEP) in a large group of women who were managed surgically. We also aimed to assess the positive predictive value (PPV) of TVS for each of the different ultrasound morphological types of EUEP.

METHODS

This was a retrospective observational study of all pregnant women who underwent emergency surgery following ultrasound diagnosis of EUEP at a single early pregnancy unit between January 2009 and December 2017. The preoperative TVS findings were recorded, including the exact location and morphological type (Type I-V; defined using ultrasound criteria) of EUEP. TVS findings were compared with operative and histological findings. The performance of ultrasound in diagnosing EUEP overall and according to morphological type was assessed, using visual confirmation of ectopic pregnancy at surgery as the reference standard.

RESULTS

A total of 26 401 women presented with early-pregnancy complications during the study period, including 1241 (4.7%; 95% CI, 4.5-5.0%) women with a conclusive diagnosis of EUEP on TVS or a presumed diagnosis based on severe pain and significant hemoperitoneum. Surgery was performed in 721/1241 (58.1%; 95% CI, 55.3-60.8%) cases, of which 710 (98.5%; 95% CI, 97.6-99.4%) had a conclusive diagnosis of EUEP on preoperative TVS. The remaining 11 women had severe pain and significant hemoperitoneum and were managed surgically on clinical grounds as an emergency, without an ectopic pregnancy having been identified on ultrasound examination. At laparoscopy, the diagnosis of EUEP was confirmed in 706/710 (99.4%; 95% CI, 98.6-99.8%) women with a positive ultrasound diagnosis and in all 11 women with a presumed ultrasound diagnosis of EUEP. The PPV of preoperative ultrasound for the diagnosis of EUEP was 99.4% (95% CI, 98.6-99.8%) with sensitivity of 98.5% (95% CI, 97.3-99.1%). There was no statistically significant difference in the accuracy of preoperative ultrasound diagnosis between the five morphological types (P = 0.76).

CONCLUSIONS

The accuracy of preoperative ultrasound for diagnosis of EUEP is high. The morphological type of EUEP on TVS had no significant effect on the accuracy of preoperative diagnosis. Copyright © 2019 ISUOG. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Reliability and validity of the World Health Organization reading standards for paediatric chest radiographs used in the field in an impact study of Pneumococcal Conjugate Vaccine in Kilifi, Kenya

BACKGROUND

Radiologically-confirmed pneumonia (RCP) is a specific end-point used in trials of Pneumococcal Conjugate Vaccine (PCV) to estimate vaccine efficacy. However, chest radiograph (CXR) interpretation varies within and between readers. We measured the repeatability and reliability of paediatric CXR interpretation using percent agreement and Cohen's Kappa and the validity of field readings against expert review in a study of the impact of PCV on pneumonia.

METHODS

CXRs were obtained from 2716 children admitted between 2006 and 2014 to Kilifi County Hospital, Kilifi, Kenya, with clinically-defined severe or very-severe pneumonia. Five clinicians and radiologists attended a three-day training course on CXR interpretation using a WHO standard. All CXRs were read once by two local primary readers. Discordant readings and 13% of concordant readings were arbitrated by a panel of three expert radiologists. To assess repeatability, a 5% median random sample was presented twice. Sensitivity and specificity of the primary readers' interpretations was estimated against the 'gold-standard' of the arbitrators' results.

RESULTS

Of 2716 CXRs, 2 were uninterpretable and 159 were evaluated twice. The percent agreement and Kappa for RCP were 89% and 0.68 and ranged between 84-97% and 0.19-0.68, respectively, for all pathological findings. Intra-observer repeatability was similar to inter-observer reliability. Sensitivities of the primary readers to detect RCP were 69% and 73%; specificities were 96% and 95%.

CONCLUSION

Intra- and inter-observer agreements on interpretations of radiologically-confirmed pneumonia are fair to good. Reasonable sensitivity and high specificity make radiologically-confirmed pneumonia, determined in the field, a suitable measure of relative vaccine effectiveness.

Exploring the role of competition induced by non-vaccine serotypes for herd protection following pneumococcal vaccination

The competitive pressure from non-vaccine serotypes may have helped pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs) to limit vaccine-type (VT) serotype prevalence. We aimed to investigate if, consequently, the indirect protection of vaccines targeting most pneumococcal serotypes could fall short of the profound effects of current formulations. We compared three previously described pneumococcal models harmonized to simulate 20 serotypes with a combined pre-vaccination prevalence in children younger than 5-years-old of 40%. We simulated vaccines of increasing valency by adding serotypes in order of their competitiveness and explored their ability to reduce VT carriage by 95% within 10 years after introduction. All models predicted that additional valency will reduce indirect vaccine effects and hence the overall vaccine impact on carriage both in children and adults. Consequently, the minimal effective coverage (efficacy against carriage×vaccine coverage) needed to eliminate VT carriage increased with increasing valency. One model predicted this effect to be modest, while the other two predicted that high-valency vaccines may struggle to eliminate VT pneumococci unless vaccine efficacy against carriage can be substantially improved. Similar results were obtained when settings of higher transmission intensity and different PCV formulations were explored. Failure to eliminate carriage as a result of increased valency could lead to overall decreased impact of vaccination if the disease burden caused by the added serotypes is low. Hence, a comparison of vaccine formulations of varying valency, and pan-valent formulations in particular, should consider the invasiveness of targeted serotypes, as well as efficacy against carriage.

Caesarean scar pregnancy in the UK: a national cohort study

OBJECTIVE

To estimate the incidence of caesarean scar pregnancy (CSP) and to describe the management outcomes associated with this condition.

DESIGN

A national cohort study using the UK Early Pregnancy Surveillance Service (UKEPSS).

SETTING

86 participating Early Pregnancy Units.

POPULATION

All women diagnosed in the participating units with CSP between November 2013 and January 2015.

METHODS

Cohort study of women identified through the UKEPSS monthly mailing system.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Incidence, clinical outcomes and complications.

RESULTS

102 cases of CSP were reported, with an estimated incidence of 1.5 per 10 000 (95% CI 1.1-1.9) maternities. Full outcome data were available for 92 women. Management was expectant in 21/92 (23%), medical in 15/92 (16%) and surgical in 56/92 (61%). The success rates of expectant, medical and surgical management were 43% (9/21), 46% (7/15) and 96% (54/56), respectively. The complication rates were 15/21 (71%) with expectant, 9/15 (60%) with medical and 20/56 (36%) with surgical management. Discharge from care (median number of days) was 82 (range 37-174) with expectant, 21 (range 10-31) with medical and 11 (range 4-49) with surgical management.

CONCLUSIONS

Surgical management appears to be associated with a high success rate, low complication rate and short post-treatment follow up.

TWEETABLE ABSTRACT

Surgery for CSP appears to be successful, with low complication rates and short post-treatment follow up.

Maternal colonization with Staphylococcus aureus and Group B streptococcus is associated with colonization in newborns

OBJECTIVES

Although Staphylococcus aureus and Group B streptococcus (GBS) are major causes of neonatal sepsis in sub-Saharan Africa, it is unclear how these bacteria are transmitted to the neonate.

METHODS

In a cohort of 377 Gambian women and their newborns, nasopharyngeal swabs were collected at delivery (day 0), and 3, 6, 14 and 28 days later. Breast milk samples and vaginal swabs were collected from the mother. Staphylococcus aureus and GBS were isolated using conventional microbiological methods.

RESULTS

Most women were carriers of S. aureus (264 out of 361 with all samples collected, 73.1%) at some point during follow up and many were carriers of GBS (114 out of 361, 31.6%). Carriage of S. aureus was common in all three maternal sites and GBS was common in the vaginal tract and breast milk. Among newborns, carriage of S. aureus peaked at day 6 (238 out of 377, 63.1%) and GBS at day 3 (39 out of 377, 10.3%). Neonatal carriage of S. aureus at day 6 was associated with maternal carriage in the breast milk adjusted OR 2.54; 95% CI 1.45-4.45, vaginal tract (aOR 2.55; 95% CI 1.32-4.92) and nasopharynx (aOR 2.49; 95% CI 1.56-3.97). Neonatal carriage of GBS at day 6 was associated with maternal carriage in the breast milk (aOR 3.75; 95% CI 1.32-10.65) and vaginal tract (aOR 3.42; 95% CI 1.27-9.22).

CONCLUSIONS

Maternal colonization with S. aureus or GBS is a risk factor for bacterial colonization in newborns.

The importance of physical function to people with osteoporosis

There is increasing need to understand patient outcomes in osteoporosis. This article discusses that fracture in osteoporosis can lead to a cycle of impairment, driven by complex psychosocial factors, having a profound impact on physical function/activity which accumulates over time. More information is required on how treatments impact physical function.

INTRODUCTION

There is increasing need to understand patient-centred outcomes in osteoporosis (OP) clinical research and management. This multi-method paper provides insight on the effect of OP on patients' physical function and everyday activity.

METHODS

Data were collected from three sources: (1) targeted literature review on OP and physical function, conducted in MEDLINE, Embase and PsycINFO; (2) secondary thematic analysis of transcripts from patient interviews, conducted to develop a patient-reported outcome instrument. Transcripts were re-coded to focus on OP impact on daily activities and physical function for those with and without fracture history; and (3) discussions of the literature review and secondary qualitative analysis results with three clinical experts to review and interpret the importance and implications of the findings.

RESULTS

Results suggest that OP, particularly with fracture, can have profound impacts on physical function/activity. These impacts accumulate over time through a cycle of impairment, as fracture leads to longer term detriments in physical function, including loss of muscle, activity avoidance and reduced physical capacity, which in turn leads to greater risk of fracture and potential for further physical restrictions. The cycle of impairment is complex, as other physical, psychosocial and treatment-related factors, such as comorbidities, fears and beliefs about physical activity and fracture risk influence physical function and everyday activity.

CONCLUSION

More information on how treatments impact physical function would benefit healthcare professionals and persons with OP in making treatment decisions and improving treatment compliance/persistence, as these impacts may be more salient to patients than fracture incidence.

Can risk factors, clinical history and symptoms be used to predict risk of ectopic pregnancy in women attending an early pregnancy assessment unit?

OBJECTIVE

To examine whether risk factors and symptoms may be used to predict the likelihood of ectopic pregnancy (EP) in women attending early pregnancy assessment units in the UK.

METHODS

This was an observational cohort study of pregnant women under 12 weeks' gestation who were recruited from three London university hospitals between August 2012 and April 2013. One hospital continued recruitment between January and June 2015. A standardized information sheet incorporating patient demographics, medical history and symptoms was completed by patients and confirmed by examining clinicians. The outcome measure was final pregnancy location.

RESULTS

There were 1320 eligible patients included in the analysis, with a total of 72 EPs (rate of 6%). Pelvic pain and diarrhea > three times in the previous 24 h were independent symptoms that increased the risk of EP, with relative risks of 2.4 (95% CI, 1.4-4.0; P = 0.002) and 2.2 (95% CI, 1.08-4.5; P = 0.03), respectively. The only other independent marker of risk of EP was duration of vaginal bleeding; the risk of EP increased by 20% (95% CI, 14%-27%) for every 1-day increment in duration (P < 0.001). A logistic regression model incorporating these factors demonstrated an area under the receiver-operating characteristics curve of 0.73 (95% CI, 0.67-0.79). The prevalence of EP was low when there was no pelvic pain, no diarrhea and the duration of bleeding was ≤ 3 days, with an EP rate of 2% (6/391). In the presence of a single risk factor, the EP rate increased to 5% (29/631) when only pelvic pain was present, 8% (1/12) when only diarrhea > three times in the previous 24 h was reported and 9% (9/103) when there was only vaginal bleeding with a duration > 3 days. Women with pelvic pain and vaginal bleeding of any severity for > 3 days had a high EP rate of 16% (23/146). In the nine women who also reported diarrhea > three times in the previous 24 h, two had EP.

CONCLUSIONS

Only the presence of pelvic pain, diarrhea > three times in the previous 24 h and duration of bleeding were symptoms that significantly increased the risk for EP in women attending early pregnancy assessment units. Risk factors and symptoms alone could not be used to predict reliably an EP. Copyright © 2016 ISUOG. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Childhood pneumonia and crowding, bed-sharing and nutrition: a case-control study from The Gambia

SETTING

Greater Banjul and Upper River Regions, The Gambia.

OBJECTIVE

To investigate tractable social, environmental and nutritional risk factors for childhood pneumonia.

DESIGN

A case-control study examining the association of crowding, household air pollution (HAP) and nutritional factors with pneumonia was undertaken in children aged 2-59 months: 458 children with severe pneumonia, defined according to the modified WHO criteria, were compared with 322 children with non-severe pneumonia, and these groups were compared to 801 neighbourhood controls. Controls were matched by age, sex, area and season.

RESULTS

Strong evidence was found of an association between bed-sharing with someone with a cough and severe pneumonia (adjusted OR [aOR] 5.1, 95%CI 3.2-8.2, P < 0.001) and non-severe pneumonia (aOR 7.3, 95%CI 4.1-13.1, P < 0.001), with 18% of severe cases estimated to be attributable to this risk factor. Malnutrition and pneumonia had clear evidence of association, which was strongest between severe malnutrition and severe pneumonia (aOR 8.7, 95%CI 4.2-17.8, P < 0.001). No association was found between pneumonia and individual carbon monoxide exposure as a measure of HAP.

CONCLUSION

Bed-sharing with someone with a cough is an important risk factor for severe pneumonia, and potentially tractable to intervention, while malnutrition remains an important tractable determinant.

The clinical performance of the M4 decision support model to triage women with a pregnancy of unknown location as at low or high risk of complications

STUDY QUESTION

What are the adverse outcomes associated with using the M4 model in everyday clinical practice for women with pregnancy of unknown location (PUL)?

SUMMARY ANSWER

There were 17/835 (2.0%) adverse events and no serious adverse events associated with the performance of the M4 model in clinical practice.

WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY

The M4 model has previously been shown to stratify women classified as a PUL as at low or high risk of complications with a good level of test performance. The triage performance of the M4 model is better than single measurements of serum progesterone or the hCG ratio (serum hCG at 48 h/hCG at presentation).

STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION

A prospective multi-centre cohort study of 1022 women with a PUL carried out between August 2012 and December 2013 across 2 university teaching hospitals and 1 district general hospital.

PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTING, METHODS

All women presenting with a PUL to the early pregnancy units of the three hospitals were recruited. The final outcome for PUL was either a failed PUL (FPUL), intrauterine pregnancy (IUP) or ectopic pregnancy (EP) (including persistent PUL (PPUL)), with EP and PPUL considered high-risk PUL. Their hCG results at 0 and 48 h were entered into the M4 model algorithm. If the risk of EP was ≥5%, the PUL was predicted to be high-risk and the participant was asked to re-attend 48 h later for a repeat hCG and transvaginal ultrasound scan by a senior clinician. If the PUL was classified as 'low risk, likely failed PUL', the participant was asked to perform a urinary pregnancy test 2 weeks later. If the PUL was classified as 'low risk, likely intrauterine', the participant was scheduled for a repeat scan in 1 week. Deviations from the management protocol were recorded as either an 'unscheduled visit (participant reason)', 'unscheduled visit (clinician reason)' or 'differences in timing (blood test/ultrasound)'. Adverse events were assessed using definitions outlined in the UK Good Clinical Practice Guidelines' document.

MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE

A total of 835 (82%) women classified as a PUL were managed according to the M4 model (9 met the exclusion criteria, 69 were lost to follow-up, 109 had no hCG result at 48 h). Of these, 443 (53%) had a final outcome of FPUL, 298 (36%) an IUP and 94 (11%) an EP. The M4 model predicted 70% (585/835) PUL as low risk, of which 568 (97%) were confirmed as FPUL or IUP. Of the 17 EP and PPUL misclassified as low risk, 5 had expectant management, 7 medical management with methotrexate and 5 surgical intervention.Nineteen PUL had an unscheduled visit (participant reason), 38 PUL had an unscheduled visit (clinician reason) and 68 PUL had deviations from protocol due to a difference in timing (blood test/ultrasound).Adverse events were reported in 26 PUL and 1 participant had a serious adverse event. A total of 17/26 (65%) adverse events were misclassifications of a high risk PUL as low risk by the M4 model, while 5/26 (19%) adverse events were related to incorrect clinical decisions. Four of the 26 adverse events (15%) were secondary to unscheduled admissions for pain/bleeding. The serious adverse event was due to an incorrect clinical decision.

LIMITATIONS, REASONS FOR CAUTION

A limitation of the study was that 69/1022 (7%) of PUL were lost to follow-up. A 48 h hCG level was missing for 109/1022 (11%) participants.

WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS

The low number of adverse events (2.0%) suggests that expectant management of PUL using the M4 prediction model is safe. The model is an effective way of triaging women with a PUL as being at high- and low-risk of complications and rationalizing follow-up. The multi-centre design of the study is more likely to make the performance of the M4 model generalizable in other populations.

STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTERESTS

None.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

Not applicable.

Oral azithromycin given during labour decreases bacterial carriage in the mothers and their offspring: a double-blind randomized trial

Bacterial sepsis remains a leading cause of death among neonates with Staphylococcus aureus, group B streptococcus (GBS) and Streptococcus pneumoniae identified as the most common causative pathogens in Africa. Asymptomatic bacterial colonization is an intermediate step towards sepsis. We conducted a phase III, double-blind, placebo-controlled randomized trial to determine the impact of giving one oral dose of azithromycin to Gambian women in labour on the nasopharyngeal carriage of S. aureus, GBS or S. pneumoniae in the newborn at day 6 postpartum. Study participants were recruited in a health facility in western Gambia. They were followed for 8 weeks and samples were collected during the first 4 weeks. Between April 2013 and April 2014 we recruited 829 women who delivered 843 babies, including 13 stillbirths. Sixteen babies died during the follow-up period. No maternal deaths were observed. No serious adverse events related to the intervention were reported. According to the intent-to-treat analysis, prevalence of nasopharyngeal carriage of the bacteria of interest in the newborns at day 6 was lower in the intervention arm (28.3% versus 65.1% prevalence ratio 0.43; 95% CI 0.36–0.52, p <0.001). At the same time-point, prevalence of any bacteria in the mother was also lower in the azithromycin group (nasopharynx, 9.3% versus 40.0%, p <0.001; breast milk, 7.9% versus 21.6%, p <0.001; and the vaginal tract, 13.2% versus 24.2%, p <0.001). Differences between arms lasted for at least 4 weeks. Oral azithromycin given to women in labour decreased the carriage of bacteria of interest in mothers and newborns and may lower the risk of neonatal sepsis.

Trial registrationClinicalTrials.gov Identifier NCT01800942.

Mass drug administration of azithromycin for trachoma reduces the prevalence of genital Chlamydia trachomatis infection in the Solomon Islands

Objectives

Chlamydia trachomatis is the most common bacterial sexually transmitted infection and is frequently asymptomatic; ocular C. trachomatis strains cause trachoma. Mass drug administration (MDA) of azithromycin for trachoma might also reduce the prevalence of genital C. trachomatis. In a survey conducted in the Solomon Islands in 2014, prior to MDA, the prevalence of genital C. trachomatis was 20.3% (95% CI 15.9% to 25.4%). We conducted a survey to establish the impact of MDA with azithromycin on genital C. trachomatis.

Methods

Women attending three community outpatient clinics, predominantly for antenatal care, 10 months after MDA with azithromycin given for trachoma elimination, were enrolled in this survey. Self-taken high vaginal swabs were for C. trachomatis and Neisseria gonorrhoeae using the BD Probetec strand displacement assay.

Results

298 women were enrolled. C. trachomatis infection was diagnosed in 43 women (14.4%, 95% CI 10.6% to 18.9%) and N. gonorrhoeae in 9 (3%, 95% CI 1.4% to 5.7%). The age-adjusted OR for C. trachomatis infection was consistent with a significant decrease in the prevalence of C. trachomatis following MDA (OR 0.58, 95% CI 0.37 to 0.94, p=0.027). There was no change in the prevalence of N. gonorrhoeae between following MDA (OR 0.51, 95% CI 0.22 to 1.22, p=0.13).

Conclusions

This study demonstrated a 40% reduction in the age-adjusted prevalence of genital C. trachomatis infection following azithromycin MDA for trachoma elimination.

Nasopharyngeal colonization of Gambian infants by Staphylococcus aureus and Streptococcus pneumoniae before the introduction of pneumococcal conjugate vaccines

Staphylococcus aureus and Streptococcus pneumoniae commonly colonize the upper respiratory tract and can cause invasive disease. Several studies suggest an inverse relationship between these two bacteria in the nasopharynx. This association is of particular concern as the introduction of pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs) that affect pneumococcal nasopharyngeal carriage become widespread. A cohort of children in rural Gambia were recruited at birth and followed for 1 year, before the introduction of PCV into the routine immunization program. Nasopharyngeal swabs were taken immediately after birth, every 2 weeks for the first 6 months and then every other month. The presence of S. aureus and S. pneumoniae was determined using conventional microbiologic methods. Prevalence of S. aureus carriage was 71.6% at birth, decreasing with age to reach a plateau at approximately 20% between 10 to 20 weeks of age. Carriage with any S. pneumoniae increased during the first 10 weeks of life to peak at approximately 90%, mostly of PCV13 serotypes. Although in the crude analysis S. aureus carriage was inversely associated with carriage of any S. pneumoniae and PCV13 serotypes, after adjusting by age and season, there was a positive association with any carriage (odds ratio 1.32; 95% confidence interval 1.07-1.64; p 0.009) and no association with carriage of PCV13 serotypes (odds ratio 0.99; 95% confidence interval 0.70-1.41; p 0.973). Among Gambian infants, S. aureus and S. pneumoniae are not inversely associated in nasopharyngeal carriage after adjustment for age. Further carriage studies following the introduction of PCV are needed to better understand the relationship between the two bacteria.

Predicting onset of major depression in general practice attendees in Europe: extending the application of the predictD risk algorithm from 12 to 24 months

BACKGROUND

PredictD is a risk algorithm that was developed to predict risk of onset of major depression over 12 months in general practice attendees in Europe and validated in a similar population in Chile. It was the first risk algorithm to be developed in the field of mental disorders. Our objective was to extend predictD as an algorithm to detect people at risk of major depression over 24 months. Method Participants were 4190 adult attendees to general practices in the UK, Spain, Slovenia and Portugal, who were not depressed at baseline and were followed up for 24 months. The original predictD risk algorithm for onset of DSM-IV major depression had already been developed in data arising from the first 12 months of follow-up. In this analysis we fitted predictD to the longer period of follow-up, first by examining only the second year (12-24 months) and then the whole period of follow-up (0-24 months).

RESULTS

The instrument performed well for prediction of major depression from 12 to 24 months [c-index 0.728, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.675-0.781], or over the whole 24 months (c-index 0.783, 95% CI 0.757-0.809).

CONCLUSIONS

The predictD risk algorithm for major depression is accurate over 24 months, extending it current use of prediction over 12 months. This strengthens its use in prevention efforts in general medical settings.

The natural history of respiratory syncytial virus in a birth cohort: the influence of age and previous infection on reinfection and disease

This study aimed to quantify the effect of age, time since last infection, and infection history on the rate of respiratory syncytial virus infection and the effect of age and infection history on the risk of respiratory syncytial virus disease. A birth cohort of 635 children in Kilifi, Kenya, was monitored for respiratory syncytial virus infections from January 31, 2002, to April 22, 2005. Predictors of infection were examined by Cox regression and disease risk by binomial regression. A total of 598 respiratory syncytial virus infections were identified (411 primary, 187 repeat), with 409 determined by antigen assay and 189 by antibody alone (using a “most pragmatic” serologic definition). The incidence decreased by 70% following a primary infection (adjusted hazard ratio = 0.30, 95% confidence interval: 0.21, 0.42; P < 0.001) and by 59% following a secondary infection (hazard ratio = 0.41, 95% confidence interval: 0.22, 0.73; P = 0.003), for a period lasting 6 months. Relative to the age group <6 months, all ages exhibited a higher incidence of infection. A lower risk of severe disease following infection was independently associated with increasing age (P < 0.001) but not reinfection. In conclusion, observed respiratory syncytial virus incidence was lowest in the first 6 months of life, immunity to reinfection was partial and short lived, and disease risk was age related.

Effect of age and vaccination with a pneumococcal conjugate vaccine on the density of pneumococcal nasopharyngeal carriage

This study evaluated the impact of age and pneumococcal vaccination on the density of pneumococcal nasopharyngeal carriage. Among colonized individuals, density decreased with increasing age. Time-trends analysis revealed that pneumococcal vaccination appeared to lower the density of nasopharyngeal carriage.

Background. This study evaluated the impact of age and pneumococcal vaccination on the density of pneumococcal nasopharyngeal carriage.

Methods. A cluster-randomized trial was conducted in rural Gambia. In 11 villages (the vaccine group), all residents received 7-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV-7), while in another 10 villages (the control group), only children <30 months old or born during the study period received PCV-7. Cross-sectional surveys (CSSs) were conducted to collect nasopharyngeal swabs before vaccination (baseline CSS) and 4, 12, and 22 months after vaccination. Pneumococcal density was defined using a semiquantitative classification (range, 1–4) among colonized individuals. An age-trend analysis of density was conducted using data from the baseline CSS. Mean pneumococcal density was compared in CSSs conducted before and after vaccination.

Results. Mean bacterial density among colonized individuals in the baseline CSS was 2.57 for vaccine-type (VT) and non–vaccine-type (NVT) pneumococci; it decreased with age (P < .001 for VT and NVT). There was a decrease in the density of VT carriage following vaccination in individuals older than 5 years (from 2.44 to 1.88; P = .001) and in younger individuals (from 2.57 to 2.11; P = .070) in the vaccinated villages. Similar decreases in density were observed with NVT within vaccinated and control villages. No significant differences were found between vaccinated and control villages in the postvaccination comparisons for either VT or NVT.

Conclusions. A high density of carriage among young subjects might partly explain why children are more efficient than adults in pneumococcal transmission. PCV-7 vaccination lowered the density of VT and of NVT pneumococcal carriage in the before-after vaccination analysis.

Clinical Trials Registration. ISRCTN51695599.

Limitations of current definitions of miscarriage using mean gestational sac diameter and crown-rump length measurements: a multicenter observational study

OBJECTIVES

There is significant variation in cut-off values for mean gestational sac diameter (MSD) and embryo crown-rump length (CRL) used to define miscarriage, values suggested in the literature ranging from 13 to 25 mm for MSD and from 3 to 8 mm for CRL. We aimed to define the false-positive rate (FPR) for the diagnosis of miscarriage associated with different CRL and MSD measurements with or without a yolk sac in a large study population of patients attending early pregnancy clinics. We also aimed to define cut-off values for CRL and MSD that, on the basis of a single measurement, can definitively diagnose a miscarriage and so exclude possible inadvertent termination of pregnancy.

METHODS

This was an observational cross-sectional study. Data were collected prospectively according to a predefined protocol. Intrauterine pregnancy of uncertain viability (IPUV) was defined as an empty gestational sac or sac with a yolk sac but no embryo seen with MSD < 20 or < 30 mm or an embryo with an absent heartbeat and CRL < 6 mm or < 8 mm. We recruited to the study 1060 consecutive women with IPUV. The endpoint was presence or absence of a viable pregnancy at the time of first-trimester screening ultrasonography between 11 and 14 weeks. The sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values were calculated for potential cut-off values to define miscarriage from MSD 8 to 30 mm with or without a yolk sac and from CRL 3 to 8 mm.

RESULTS

Of the 1060 women with a diagnosis of IPUV, 473 remained viable and 587 were non-viable by the time of the 11-14-week scan. In the absence of both embryo and yolk sac, the FPR for miscarriage was 4.4% when an MSD cut-off of 16 mm was used and 0.5% for a cut-off of 20 mm. There were no false-positive test results for miscarriage when a cut-off of MSD ≥ 21 mm was used. If a yolk sac was present but an embryo was not, the FPR for miscarriage was 2.6% for an MSD cut-off of 16 mm and 0.4% for a cut-off of 20 mm, with no false-positive results when a cut-off of MSD ≥ 21 mm was used. When an embryo was visible with an absent heartbeat, using a CRL cut-off of 4 mm the FPR for miscarriage was 8.3%, and for a CRL cut-off of 5 mm it was also 8.3%. There were no false-positive results using a CRL cut-off of ≥ 5.3 mm.

CONCLUSIONS

These data show that some current definitions used to diagnose miscarriage are potentially unsafe. Current national guidelines should be reviewed to avoid inadvertent termination of wanted pregnancies. An MSD cut-off of > 25 mm and a CRL cut-off of > 7 mm could be introduced to minimize the risk of a false-positive diagnosis of miscarriage.

Gestational sac and embryonic growth are not useful as criteria to define miscarriage: a multicenter observational study

OBJECTIVES

We studied changes in mean gestational sac diameter (MSD) and embryonic crown-rump length (CRL) in intrauterine pregnancies of uncertain viability (IPUVs). We aimed to establish cut-off values for MSD and CRL growth that could be definitively associated with either viability or miscarriage, and to establish the relationship between growth in MSD and appearance of embryonic structures in the gestational sac.

METHODS

One thousand and sixty consecutive IPUVs were recruited prospectively from four London University hospitals: 462 with no yolk sac or embryo, 419 with a yolk sac but no embryo, and 179 with an embryo but no heartbeat visible. IPUV was defined as an empty gestational sac with or without a yolk sac but no embryo seen with MSD < 20 or < 30 mm (depending on center) or an embryo with no heartbeat and CRL < 6 mm or < 8 mm (depending on center). Scans were repeated 7-14 days later. The endpoint was viability at first-trimester screening ultrasonography between 11 and 14 weeks. Change in MSD and CRL between the first and second scans of each pregnancy was compared with respect to viability and appearance of embryonic structures using the two-sample t-test.

RESULTS

The study included 359 pregnancies in which a gestational sac with or without embryo was identified at the follow-up scan 7-14 days later. Of these, 192 were viable and 167 non-viable at the 11-14-week scan. MSD growth was significantly higher in viable than non-viable pregnancies (mean 1.003 vs. 0.503 mm/day; P < 0.001, 95% CI of difference 0.403-0.596). A difference in CRL growth was found between the two groups (mean 0.673 vs. 0.148 mm/day; P < 0.001, 95% CI of difference 0.345-0.703). MSD growth of 0.6 mm/day was associated with a specificity for diagnosing miscarriage of 90.1%, a sensitivity of 61.7% and 19 false-positive test results. A cut-off of CRL growth rate of 0.2 mm/day gave a sensitivity of 76.3% and there were no false-positive test results for miscarriage. On repeat scan the failure of either a yolk sac or embryo to be visualized was always associated with miscarriage.

CONCLUSION

There is an overlap in MSD growth rates between viable and non-viable IPUV. No cut-off exists for MSD growth below which a viable pregnancy could be safely excluded. A cut-off value for CRL growth of 0.2 mm/day was always associated with miscarriage. These data suggest that criteria to diagnose miscarriage based on growth in MSD and CRL are potentially unsafe. However, finding an empty gestational sac on two scans more than 7 days apart is highly likely to indicate miscarriage, irrespective of growth.

Clinical implications of intra- and interobserver reproducibility of transvaginal sonographic measurement of gestational sac and crown-rump length at 6-9 weeks' gestation

OBJECTIVES

To assess intra- and interobserver agreement of routinely performed measurements-crown-rump length (CRL) and mean gestational sac diameter (MSD)-for assessing the likelihood of miscarriage in the first trimester of pregnancy using transvaginal sonography.

METHODS

A cross-sectional study of CRL and gestational sac measurements in first-trimester pregnancies was conducted in a fetal medicine referral center with a predominantly Caucasian population. Gestational age ranged from 6 to 9 weeks. All patients underwent a transvaginal ultrasound examination using a high-resolution ultrasound machine. Two measurements of CRL and measurements of three diameters of the gestational sac were obtained by two observers. Agreement within and between observers for CRL and between observers for MSD was analyzed using 95% prediction intervals, Bland-Altman plots with 95% limits of agreement and the intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC).

RESULTS

In total 54 patients were included in the study, with measurements obtained by both observers in 44 of these. Intra- and interobserver ICCs were high for CRL measurements, with values of 0.992 and 0.993 for intraobserver agreement and 0.993 for interobserver agreement. For the MSD, the interobserver ICC was 0.952. Limits of agreement were ± 8.91 and ± 11.37% for intraobserver agreement of CRL and ± 14.64% for interobserver agreement of CRL. For MSD, the interobserver limits of agreement were ± 18.78%. For an MSD measurement of 20 mm by the first observer, the prediction interval for the second observer was 16.8-24.5 mm. For a CRL measurement of 6 mm, the prediction interval for the second observer was 5.4-6.7 mm.

CONCLUSION

For dating purposes, there is reasonable reproducibility of CRL measurements using transvaginal ultrasonography at 6-9 weeks' gestation. When diagnosing miscarriage based on measurements of CRL care must be taken for values close to any decision boundary. The higher interobserver variability that we observed for MSD has implications for the diagnosis of miscarriage based on this measurement in the absence of a visible embryo or yolk sac.

Incidence of epilepsy: a systematic review and meta-analysis

OBJECTIVE

To estimate the pooled incidence of epilepsy from published studies and investigate sources of heterogeneity in the estimates.

METHODS

We searched online databases for incidence studies and used meta-analytic methods to analyze the data.

RESULTS

Thirty-three articles met the entry criteria. The median incidence of epilepsy was 50.4/100,000/year (interquartile range [IQR] 33.6-75.6), while it was 45.0 (IQR 30.3-66.7) for high-income countries and 81.7 (IQR 28.0-239.5) for low- and middle-income countries. Population-based studies had higher incidence estimates than hospital-based studies (p = 0.02) while retrospective study design was associated with lower estimates than prospective studies (p = 0.04).

CONCLUSION

We provide data that could potentially be used to assess the burden and analyze the trends in incidence of epilepsy. Our results support the need for large population-based incidence studies of epilepsy.

An international risk prediction algorithm for the onset of generalized anxiety and panic syndromes in general practice attendees: predictA

BACKGROUND

There are no risk models for the prediction of anxiety that may help in prevention. We aimed to develop a risk algorithm for the onset of generalized anxiety and panic syndromes.

METHOD

Family practice attendees were recruited between April 2003 and February 2005 and followed over 24 months in the UK, Spain, Portugal and Slovenia (Europe4 countries) and over 6 months in The Netherlands, Estonia and Chile. Our main outcome was generalized anxiety and panic syndromes as measured by the Patient Health Questionnaire. We entered 38 variables into a risk model using stepwise logistic regression in Europe4 data, corrected for over-fitting and tested it in The Netherlands, Estonia and Chile.

RESULTS

There were 4905 attendees in Europe4, 1094 in Estonia, 1221 in The Netherlands and 2825 in Chile. In the algorithm four variables were fixed characteristics (sex, age, lifetime depression screen, family history of psychological difficulties); three current status (Short Form 12 physical health subscale and mental health subscale scores, and unsupported difficulties in paid and/or unpaid work); one concerned country; and one time of follow-up. The overall C-index in Europe4 was 0.752 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.724-0.780]. The effect size for difference in predicted log odds between developing and not developing anxiety was 0.972 (95% CI 0.837-1.107). The validation of predictA resulted in C-indices of 0.731 (95% CI 0.654-0.809) in Estonia, 0.811 (95% CI 0.736-0.886) in The Netherlands and 0.707 (95% CI 0.671-0.742) in Chile.

CONCLUSIONS

PredictA accurately predicts the risk of anxiety syndromes. The algorithm is strikingly similar to the predictD algorithm for major depression, suggesting considerable overlap in the concepts of anxiety and depression.

A model and scoring system to predict outcome of intrauterine pregnancies of uncertain viability

OBJECTIVES

To define the incidence and outcome of intrauterine pregnancy of uncertain viability (PUV) and to develop and assess the performance of a model and a scoring system to predict ongoing viability.

METHODS

Of 1881 consecutive women undergoing transvaginal ultrasonography, a cohort of 493 women with an empty gestational sac < 20 mm in mean diameter, gestational sac < 25 mm in mean diameter and containing yolk sac only or an embryonic pole < 6 mm in maximum length and without visible heart activity were followed until the end of the first trimester. Women with multiple pregnancies or who underwent termination of pregnancy were excluded. Outcome measures were pregnancy viability at initial 7-14-day follow-up and first-trimester viability at 11-14 weeks. The data were split randomly into two sets (two-thirds and one-third, respectively) in order to first develop and then test a mathematical model and a 'simple' model in the prediction of viability at each outcome point, based on maternal demographics, ultrasound features and symptoms. The performance of each system was assessed by receiver-operating characteristics (ROC) curve analysis and calibration plots on a test dataset.

RESULTS

The incidence of PUV in this population was 29.2% (549/1881). Of the 493 pregnancies with initial (7-14 days) follow-up available, 307 (62.3%) were viable at this time and of the 444 pregnancies with follow-up at the end of the first trimester, 225 (50.7%) were still viable. Initial (7-14-day) viability was predicted by the model with an area under the ROC curve (AUC) of 0.837 (95% CI, 0.791-0.884) in the training dataset and 0.821 (95% CI, 0.756-0.885) in the test dataset. First-trimester (11-14-week) viability was predicted by the model with an AUC of 0.788 (95% CI, 0.734-0.842) in the training dataset and 0.774 (95% CI, 0.701-0.848) in the test dataset. The scoring system performed slightly worse than did the model, but had the advantage of being easily applicable.

CONCLUSIONS

When early pregnancy viability cannot be established immediately with ultrasound, use of either a logistic regression model or a scoring system allows an individualized prediction of first-trimester outcome.

New crown-rump length curve based on over 3500 pregnancies

OBJECTIVES

The Robinson and Hadlock crown-rump length (CRL) curves are commonly used to estimate gestational age (GA) based on the CRL of an embryo or fetus. However, the Robinson curve was derived from a small population using transabdominal sonography and the Hadlock curve was generated using early transvaginal ultrasound equipment. The aim of this study was to use transvaginal and transabdominal ultrasound to study a large population of early pregnancies to assess embryonic or fetal size, and so create a new normal CRL curve from 5.5 weeks' gestation. We compared this with the Robinson and Hadlock CRL curves.

METHODS

A retrospective database study of CRL in first-trimester embryos was conducted in a fetal medicine referral center with a predominantly Caucasian population. Linear mixed-effects analysis was performed to determine the relationship between CRL and GA. After internal validation of this curve, the CRL was compared with the expected CRL at a given GA according to both the Robinson and Hadlock models based on the paired t-test. Bland-Altman plots were constructed to compare the CRL measurements obtained in our study population with those predicted according to GA by both the Robinson and Hadlock curves.

RESULTS

In total 3710 normal singleton pregnancies with a known last menstrual period were included in the study, corresponding to 4387 scans. Our data differed significantly from both the Robinson and the Hadlock curves (paired t-test, P < 0.0001). A mixed-effects model for CRL as a function of GA was developed on 70% of the data and internally validated with z-scores on the remaining 30%. The new curve extended from 5.5 to 14 weeks' gestation. Compared to our CRL curve, the Robinson curve gave a 4-day underestimation of GA at 6 weeks with a difference in CRL of 3.7 mm and a 1-day overestimation from 11 to 14 weeks with a difference in CRL of 0.9-1 mm. A comparison between our curve and the Hadlock curve showed a difference in CRL of 2.7 mm at 6 weeks, equivalent to an underestimation of 3 days, and a difference in CRL of 4.8 mm at 14 weeks, equivalent to an overestimation of 2 days. At 9 weeks all three curves were similar.

CONCLUSION

The new CRL curve suggests differences in the range of CRL measurements compared with the Robinson and Hadlock curves. These differences are most significant at the beginning and the end of the first trimester, and may lead to more accurate estimations of GA.

Twin growth discrepancy in early pregnancy

OBJECTIVES

To assess whether early fetal growth restriction in a twin, expressed as the intertwin discrepancy in crown-rump length (CRL) between two viable twins at 7 + 0 to 9 + 6 weeks' gestation, is predictive of subsequent single fetal loss.

METHODS

This was a retrospective analysis of data collected prospectively over 3 years. Women attending an early pregnancy unit underwent a transvaginal ultrasound examination. In women with a viable twin pregnancy between 7 + 0 and 9 + 6 weeks of gestation, the CRL ratio between the two embryos was calculated. Women were followed up and the intertwin discrepancy in CRL at the 7 + 0 to 9 + 6-week scan was compared between cases in which there was spontaneous reduction to a singleton and those in which both twins remained viable at the 11-14-week scan.

RESULTS

There were 77 women included in the study and nine (12%) of these had a single fetal loss. Pregnancies with subsequent single fetal loss were more likely to have a larger median CRL discrepancy (42.0%; interquartile range (IQR), 23.8-64.3%) than were those which retained two viable fetuses (6.1%; IQR, 2.2-12.5%) (P < 0.0001). The median CRL discrepancy in subsequently viable monochorionic diamniotic twins (10.9%; IQR, 1.9-17.5%) was no different from that in dichorionic diamniotic twin pregnancies (5.9%; IQR, 2.1-12.3%) (P = 0.305). Regardless of chorionicity, there was a relationship between increasing CRL discrepancy and single fetal loss; the likelihood of a subsequently viable twin pregnancy was 97% if the discrepancy was < 20%, while if the discrepancy was > 60% there were no cases of both twins remaining viable (P < 0.0001). Receiver-operating characteristics curve analysis of CRL discrepancy in predicting single fetal loss gave an area under the curve of 0.93, with an optimum cut-off point of 16.9% discrepancy (sensitivity, 88.9%; 95% CI, 51.8-99.7; and specificity, 86.7%; 95% CI, 76.3-93.8).

CONCLUSION

There is a significant relationship between CRL discrepancy at 7 + 0 to 9 + 6 weeks and the likelihood of subsequent single intrauterine fetal loss. This suggests that spontaneous fetal demise of one twin may be preceded by growth restriction in the first trimester.

Functional linear discriminant analysis: a new longitudinal approach to the assessment of embryonic growth

BACKGROUND

Functional linear discriminant analysis (FLDA) is a new growth assessment technique using serial measurements to discriminate between normal and abnormal fetal growth. We used FLDA to assess and compare growth in live pregnancies destined to miscarry with those remaining viable.

METHODS

This was a prospective cohort study of women with ultrasound scans on at least two separate occasions showing live pregnancies. Serial crown-rump length (CRL), mean gestational sac diameter and mean yolk sac diameter measurements were recorded. The ability of FLDA to predict subsequent miscarriage was compared with that of a single CRL measurement.

RESULTS

Of 521 included pregnancies, 493 (94.6%) remained viable at 14 weeks and 28 (5.4%) miscarried. The CRL growth rate was significantly lower in those that miscarried (one-sample t-test, P = 2.638E-22). The sensitivity of FLDA in predicting miscarriage from serial CRL measurements was 60.7% and specificity was 93.1% [positive predictive value (PPV) 33.3%, negative predictive value (NPV) 97.7%]. This was significantly better for predicting miscarriage than a single CRL observation of more than 2SD below that expected (sensitivity 53.6%, specificity 72.2%, PPV 9.9%, NPV 96.5%).

CONCLUSIONS

FLDA discriminates between normal and abnormal growth to predict miscarriage with high specificity. FLDA predicts miscarriage better than a single observation of a small CRL.

Reliability of transvaginal ultrasonography at 7-9 weeks' gestation in the determination of chorionicity and amnionicity in twin pregnancies

OBJECTIVES

To assess the agreement in the diagnosis of chorionicity and amnionicity between transvaginal ultrasound examination at 7-9 weeks' gestation and at the 11-14-week transabdominal scan.

METHODS

This was a retrospective analysis of prospectively collected data of twin pregnancies over a 3-year period. Chorionicity and amnionicity were assessed in women with viable twin pregnancies who underwent a transvaginal ultrasound scan at between 7 and 9 weeks' gestation. These findings were compared with the diagnoses of chorionicity and amnionicity at the subsequent 11-14-week scan in these women.

RESULTS

Chorionicity and amnionicity were documented in 67 viable twin pregnancies at both 7-9 and 11-14 weeks' gestation. There was agreement in the chorionicity and amnionicity reported at each of the two scans in 65 out of 67 (97%) cases. Of the dichorionic-diamniotic (DCDA) pregnancies reported at 7-9 weeks, 53 out of 54 (98%) were confirmed at the 11-14-week scan and one (2%) was found to be monochorionic-diamniotic (MCDA). However, at birth these twins were of different sex, confirming DCDA twins as initially diagnosed at 7-9 weeks. Of the 12 pregnancies diagnosed as MCDA at 7-9 weeks, all were found to be MCDA at the 11-14-week scan. There was one monochorionic-monoamniotic (MCMA) pregnancy diagnosed at 7-9 weeks that was subsequently found to be MCDA at the 11-14-week scan.

CONCLUSION

Transvaginal ultrasound examination at 7-9 weeks' gestation shows very high agreement with the 11-14-week scan in the diagnosis of chorionicity and amnionicity in twin pregnancies, suggesting that it provides a similar level of accuracy. Accuracy may be higher for DC twins than MC twins, which may relate to the gestational age at which the sonographic appearance of the amniotic sac develops.

Evidence of early first-trimester growth restriction in pregnancies that subsequently end in miscarriage

OBJECTIVES

To examine whether viable early pregnancies that subsequently end in miscarriage exhibit evidence of first-trimester growth restriction.

DESIGN

Prospective cohort study.

SETTING

Early pregnancy unit (EPU) of a teaching hospital.

POPULATION

Women attending EPU between 5 and 10 weeks of gestation.

METHODS

Women with spontaneously conceived intrauterine, viable singleton pregnancies with certain last menstrual period and regular cycles were included. The deviation between the observed and expected crown-rump length (CRL) for gestation was calculated and expressed as a z score. Pregnancies were followed up until the 11-14 week scan, and the deviation between those that remained viable and miscarried subsequently was calculated.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Viability at 11-14 week scan.

RESULTS

Over 6 months, 316 women met the inclusion criteria. Twenty-four (7.4%) women were excluded. Of the remaining 292, the pregnancy remained viable in 251 (86%) and 41 (14%) suffered a miscarriage. At the first transvaginal ultrasound, the z score of the mean measured CRL for pregnancies that remained viable was -0.82, SD 1.46, while in pregnancies that subsequently miscarried the z score was -2.42 and the CRL was significantly smaller, SD 1.31 (P < 0.0001). In the latter group, the initial CRL was below the expected mean for gestational age in all women, while in 61% (25/41), the CRL was at least 2 SDs below the expected mean.

CONCLUSIONS

CRL was significantly smaller in pregnancies that subsequently ended in miscarriage. This suggests that early first-trimester growth restriction is associated with subsequent intrauterine death.

The accuracy of first trimester ultrasound in the diagnosis of hydatidiform mole

OBJECTIVE

Previous studies have examined ultrasound findings in histopathologically confirmed cases of hydatidiform mole. The aim of this study was to assess the first-trimester ultrasonographic findings in all women suspected of having hydatidiform mole on ultrasound and those subsequently diagnosed with hydatidiform mole after histological examination of removed products of conception after surgical evacuation of the uterus. The aim was to obtain a true sensitivity and positive predictive value for ultrasound in the diagnosis of hydatidiform mole.

METHODS

A retrospective analysis was performed of all cases of sonographically suspected hydatidiform mole and histologically proven hydatidiform mole presenting to the Early Pregnancy Unit of an inner city hospital over a 4-year period. The sensitivity and positive predictive value (PPV) of ultrasound in the detection of histologically proven hydatidiform mole was calculated.

RESULTS

The study group consisted of 90 women; 56 were suspected of having hydatidiform mole on ultrasound, and of these 27 (48%) had hydatidiform mole confirmed after histopathological examination of the products of conception, while no changes suggestive of hydatidiform mole were present in the other 29 cases. Overall, 61 women had hydatidiform mole confirmed on histology-41 (67%) partial hydatidiform moles (PHM) and 20 (33%) complete hydatidiform moles (CHM). The ultrasound findings in the 34 cases not suspected of hydatidiform mole were an empty sac in 8/34 (24%) women and a delayed miscarriage in the other 26/34 (76%). The overall sensitivity and positive predictive value for the ultrasound diagnosis of hydatidiform mole was 44% and 48%, respectively. For PHMs the respective values were 20% and 22% and for CHMs they were 95% and 40%.

CONCLUSION

Ultrasonography is more reliable for diagnosing CHMs than for PHMs. Overall, the sensitivity of ultrasound for accurately predicting hydatidiform mole is 44%, and one in two women with an abnormal scan will have the disease confirmed on histology.