Treatment guidelines and early loss from care for people living with HIV in Cape Town, South Africa: A retrospective cohort study

Negative clinic experiences as a barrier to care for people with HIV and their impact on patient preferences for intervention support: a qualitative study in Cape Town, South Africa

We conducted qualitative research among people with HIV (PWH) and care providers in Cape Town, South Africa to understand the impact of negative clinic experiences on adherence and support preferences. In-depth interviews were conducted with 41 patients with an unsuppressed viral load or a treatment gap, and focus group discussions with physicians, nurses, counselors, and community health workers. Questions addressed treatment history and adherence barriers, then participants evaluated evidence-based adherence interventions for potential scale up. Inductive analysis examined care experiences and corresponding preference for intervention options. More than half of PWH described negative experiences during clinic visits, including mistreatment by staff and clinic administration issues, and these statements were corroborated by providers. Those with negative experiences in care stated that fear of mistreatment led to nonadherence. Most patients with negative experiences preferred peer support groups or check-in texts to clinic-based interventions. We found that PWH's negative clinic experiences were a primary reason behind nonadherence and influenced preferences for support mechanisms. These findings emphasize the importance of HIV treatment adherence interventions at multiple levels both in and outside of the clinic, and providing more comprehensive training to providers to better serve PWH in adherence counseling, especially those who are most vulnerable..

Protocol for an evaluation of adherence monitoring and support interventions among people initiating antiretroviral therapy in Cape Town, South Africa-a multiphase optimization strategy (MOST) approach using a fractional factorial design

BACKGROUND

South Africa bears a large HIV burden with 7.8 million people with HIV (PWH). However, due to suboptimal antiretroviral therapy (ART) adherence and retention in care, only 66% of PWH in South Africa are virally suppressed. Standard care only allows for suboptimal adherence detection when routine testing indicates unsuppressed virus. Several adherence interventions are known to improve HIV outcomes, yet few are implemented in routinely due to the resources required. Therefore, determining scalable evidence-based adherence support interventions for resource-limited settings (RLS) is a priority. The multiphase optimization strategy (MOST) framework allows for simultaneous evaluation of multiple intervention components and their interactions. We propose to use MOST to identify the intervention combination with the highest levels of efficacy and cost-effectiveness that is feasible and acceptable in primary care clinics in Cape Town.

METHODS

We will employ a fractional factorial design to identify the most promising intervention components for inclusion in a multi-component intervention package to be tested in a future randomized controlled trial. We will recruit 512 participants initiating ART between March 2022 and February 2024 in three Cape Town clinics and evaluate acceptability, feasibility, and cost-effectiveness of intervention combinations. Participants will be randomized to one of 16 conditions with different combinations of three adherence monitoring components: rapid outreach following (1) unsuppressed virus, (2) missed pharmacy refill collection, and/or (3) missed doses as detected by an electronic adherence monitoring device; and two adherence support components: (1) weekly check-in texts and (2) enhanced peer support. We will assess viral suppression (<50 copies/mL) at 24 months as the primary outcome; acceptability, feasibility, fidelity, and other implementation outcomes; and cost-effectiveness. We will use logistic regression models to estimate intervention effects with an intention-to-treat approach, employ descriptive statistics to assess implementation outcomes, and determine an optimal intervention package.

DISCUSSION

To our knowledge, ours will be the first study to use the MOST framework to determine the most effective combination of HIV adherence monitoring and support intervention components for implementation in clinics in a RLS. Our findings will provide direction for pragmatic, ongoing adherence support that will be key to ending the HIV epidemic.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ClinicalTrials.gov NCT05040841. Registered on 10 September 2021.

Patients' and Providers' Views on Optimal Evidence-Based and Scalable Interventions for Individuals at High Risk of HIV Treatment Failure: Sequential Explorations Among Key Stakeholders in Cape Town, South Africa

To support translation of evidence-based interventions into practice for HIV patients at high risk of treatment failure, we conducted qualitative research in Cape Town, South Africa. After local health officials vetted interventions as potentially scalable, we held 41 in-depth interviews with patients with elevated viral load or a 3-month treatment gap at community clinics, followed by focus group discussions (FGDs) with 20 providers (physicians/nurses, counselors, and community health care workers). Interviews queried treatment barriers, solutions, and specific intervention options, including motivational text messages, data-informed counseling, individual counseling, peer support groups, check-in texts, and treatment buddies. Based on patients' preferences, motivational texts and treatment buddies were removed from consideration in subsequent FGDs. Patients most preferred peer support groups and check-in texts while individual counseling garnered the broadest support among providers. Check-in texts, peer support groups, and data-informed counseling were also endorsed by provider sub-groups. These strategies warrant attention for scale-up in South Africa and other resource-constrained settings.

Brief Report: The Impact of Disease Stage on Early Gaps in ART in the "Treatment for All" Era-A Multisite Cohort Study

BACKGROUND

Adoption of "Treat All" policies has increased antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation in sub-Saharan Africa; however, unexplained early losses continue to occur. More information is needed to understand why treatment discontinuation continues at this vulnerable stage in care.

METHODS

The Monitoring Early Treatment Adherence Study involved a prospective observational cohort of individuals initiating ART at early-stage versus late-stage disease in South Africa and Uganda. Surveys and HIV-1 RNA levels were performed at baseline, 6, and 12 months, with adherence monitored electronically. This analysis included nonpregnant participants in the first 6 months of follow-up; demographic and clinical factors were compared across groups with χ2, univariable, and multivariable models.

RESULTS

Of 669 eligible participants, 91 (14%) showed early gaps of ≥30 days in ART use (22% in South Africa and 6% in Uganda) with the median time to gap of 77 days (interquartile range: 43-101) and 87 days (74, 105), respectively. Although 71 (78%) ultimately resumed care, having an early gap was still significantly associated with detectable viremia at 6 months (P ≤ 0.01). Multivariable modeling, restricted to South Africa, found secondary education and higher physical health score protected against early gaps [adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 0.4, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.2 to 0.8 and (aOR 0.93, 95% CI: 0.9 to 1.0), respectively]. Participants reporting clinics as "too far" had double the odds of early gaps (aOR 2.2: 95% CI: 1.2 to 4.1).

DISCUSSION

Early gaps in ART persist, resulting in higher odds of detectable viremia, particularly in South Africa. Interventions targeting health management and access to care are critical to reducing early gaps.

Predictors of lost to follow up from antiretroviral therapy among adults in sub-Saharan Africa: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

It is known that 'drop out' from human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) treatment, the so called lost-to-follow-up (LTFU) occurs to persons enrolled in HIV care services. However, in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), the risk factors for the LTFU are not well understood.

METHODS

We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis of risk factors for LTFU among adults living with HIV in SSA. A systematic search of literature using identified keywords and index terms was conducted across five databases: MEDLINE, PubMed, CINAHL, Scopus, and Web of Science. We included quantitative studies published in English from 2002 to 2019. The Joanna Briggs Institute Meta-Analysis of Statistics Assessment and Review Instrument (JBI-MAStARI) was used for methodological validity assessment and data extraction. Mantel Haenszel method using Revman-5 software was used for meta-analysis. We demonstrated the meta-analytic measure of association using pooled odds ratio (OR), 95% confidence interval (CI) and heterogeneity using I2 tests.

RESULTS

Thirty studies met the search criteria and were included in the meta-analysis. Predictors of LTFU were: demographic factors including being: (i) a male (OR = 1.2, 95% CI 1.1-1.3, I2 = 59%), (ii) between 15 and 35 years old (OR = 1.3, 95% CI 1.1-1.3, I2 = 0%), (iii) unmarried (OR = 1.2, 95% CI 1.2-1.3, I2 = 21%), (iv) a rural dweller (OR = 2.01, 95% CI 1.5-2.7, I2 = 40%), (v) unemployed (OR = 1.2, 95% CI 1.04-1.4, I2 = 58%); (vi) diagnosed with behavioral factors including illegal drug use(OR = 13.5, 95% CI 7.2-25.5, I2 = 60%), alcohol drinking (OR = 2.9, 95% CI 1.9-4.4, I2 = 39%), and tobacco smoking (OR = 2.6, 95% CI 1.6-4.3, I2 = 74%); and clinical diagnosis of mental illness (OR = 3.4, 95% CI 2.2-5.2, I2 = 1%), bed ridden or ambulatory functional status (OR = 2.2, 95% CI 1.5-3.1, I2 = 74%), low CD4 count in the last visit (OR = 1.4, 95% CI 1.1-1.9, I2 = 75%), tuberculosis co-infection (OR = 1.2, 95% CI 1.02-1.4, I2 = 66%) and a history of opportunistic infections (OR = 2.5, 95% CI 1.7-2.8, I2 = 75%).

CONCLUSIONS

The current review identifies demographic, behavioral and clinical factors to be determinants of LTFU. We recommend strengthening of HIV care services in SSA targeting the aforementioned group of patients. Trial registration Protocol: the PROSPERO Registration Number is CRD42018114418.

HIV programmatic outcomes following implementation of the 'Treat-All' policy in a public sector setting in Eswatini: a prospective cohort study

INTRODUCTION

The Treat-All policy - antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation irrespective of CD4 cell criteria - increases access to treatment. Many ART programmes, however, reported increasing attrition and viral failure during treatment expansion, questioning the programmatic feasibility of Treat-All in resource-limited settings. We aimed to describe and compare programmatic outcomes between Treat-All and standard of care (SOC) in the public sectors of Eswatini.

METHODS

This is a prospective cohort study of ≥16-year-old HIV-positive patients initiated on first-line ART under Treat-All and SOC in 18 health facilities of the Shiselweni region, from October 2014 to March 2016. SOC followed the CD4 350 and 500 cells/mm³ treatment eligibility thresholds. Kaplan-Meier estimates were used to describe crude programmatic outcomes. Multivariate flexible parametric survival models were built to assess associations of time from ART initiation with the composite unfavourable outcome of all-cause attrition and viral failure.

RESULTS

Of the 3170 patients, 1888 (59.6%) initiated ART under Treat-All at a median CD4 cell count of 329 (IQR 168 to 488) cells/mm³ compared with 292 (IQR 161 to 430) (p < 0.001) under SOC. Although crude programme retention at 36 months tended to be lower under Treat-All (71%) than SOC (75%) (p = 0.002), it was similar in covariate-adjusted analysis (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 1.06, 95% CI 0.91 to 1.23). The hazard of viral suppression was higher for Treat-All (aHR 1.12, 95% CI 1.01 to 1.23), while the hazard of viral failure was comparable (Treat-All: aHR 0.89, 95% CI 0.53 to 1.49). Among patients with advanced HIV disease (n = 1080), those under Treat-All (aHR 1.13, 95% CI 0.88 to 1.44) had a similar risk of an composite unfavourable outcome to SOC. Factors increasing the risk of the composite unfavourable outcome under both interventions were aged 16 to 24 years, being unmarried, anaemia, ART initiation on the same day as HIV care enrolment and CD4 ≤ 100 cells/mm³ . Under Treat-All only, the risk of the unfavourable outcome was higher for pregnant women, WHO III/IV clinical stage and elevated creatinine.

CONCLUSIONS

Compared to SOC, Treat-All resulted in comparable retention, improved viral suppression and comparable composite outcomes of retention without viral failure.

Determinants of Virologic Failure among Adult HIV Patients on First-Line Antiretroviral Therapy at Waghimra Zone, Northern Ethiopia: A Case-Control Study

Introduction. The primary goal of antiretroviral therapy (ART) is to reduce the viral load in HIV-infected patients to promote quality of life, as well as to reduce HIV-related morbidity and mortality. A high rate of virologic failure was reported in Waghimra Zone, Northwest Ethiopia, in viral load assessment conducted among HIV-infected patients on ART in the Amhara region. However, there is limited evidence on the determinants of virological failure in the study area. This study aimed to identify the determinants of virological failure among HIV-infected patients on antiretroviral therapy in Waghimra zone, Northern Ethiopia, 2019. Methods. An institutional-based unmatched case-control study was conducted from May 21 to June 30, 2019. Cases were people living with HIV (PLHIV) on ART who had already experienced virological failure; controls were those without virological failure. Data were extracted from 92 cases and 184 controls through chart review using a pretested and structured checklist. The data were entered using Epi Info version 7 and exported to SPSS version 20 for analysis. A multivariate logistic regression analysis was carried out to identify factors associated with virological failure, and variables with a P value <0.05 were considered statistically significant. Results. This study revealed that poor adherence to ART (adjusted odds ratio (AOR) = 4.24, 95% confidence interval (CI): 2.17, 8.31), taking ART for longer than five years (AOR = 3.11, 95% CI: 1.17, 8.25), having drug toxicity (AOR = 3.34, 95% CI: 1.54, 7.23), age of PLHIV ≥ 35 years (AOR = 2.45, 95% CI: 1.29,4.64), and recent CD4 count <200 cells/mm³ (AOR = 3.06, 95% CI: 1.52, 6.13) were factors associated with virologic failure. Conclusion and Recommendation. This study showed that poor adherence to treatment, longer duration on ART, experiencing drug toxicity, older age, and recent CD4 <200 cell/mm³ are factors that increase the risk of virologic failure.

Increased Virological Failure and Determinants Among HIV Patients on Highly Active Retroviral Therapy in Adigrat General Hospital, Northern Ethiopia, 2019: Hospital-Based Cross-Sectional Study

BACKGROUND

In Ethiopia, despite the integrated implementation of antiretroviral therapy since 2005, the human immunodeficiency virus remains a public health concern. Managing and detecting antiretroviral treatment response is important to monitor the effectiveness of the therapy for individuals who experience failed virological response. An increased viral load indicating drug resistance or rapid progression of viral replication needs early detection. Hence, we aimed to assess the prevalence and determinants of virological response among human immunodeficiency virus-infected patients on highly active antiretroviral therapy.

METHODS

A hospital-based cross-sectional study was conducted in Adigrat General Hospital from September to December, 2019, on a total of 422 participants. An interviewer-based questionnaire was used for data collection. About 4 mL of venous blood was collected for viral load determination. Patient records were reviewed for the previous results of CD4+ T cell counts. STATA 14 software was used to analyze the data. Descriptive data were presented using tables and figures. Bivariate and multivariate analyses were performed. A p-value < 0.05 was considered a statistically significant association.

RESULTS

The mean age of study participants was 39 years (SD ±12.2 years), of which 66.7% of them were females. The overall prevalence of virological failure was 12.47% (49/393). Moreover, the prevalence of virological failure was observed to be higher among tuberculosis co-infected individuals (26%) compared with the mono-infected HIV patients (6.3%). The odds of virological failure were higher among obese and undernourished individuals, tuberculosis co-infected, and individuals with the failure of immune reconstitution.

CONCLUSION

There was a high rate of virological failure among the study participants. Tuberculosis infection increased the rate of failure. There should be consistent assessment of viral load testing to determine the status of virological response for appropriate drug switching to clients. HIV patients with virological failure are recommended for switching of the antiretroviral therapy.

Mortality estimates by age and sex among persons living with HIV after ART initiation in Zambia using electronic medical records supplemented with tracing a sample of lost patients: A cohort study

BACKGROUND

Men in sub-Saharan Africa have lower engagement and retention in HIV services compared to women, which may result in differential survival. However, the true magnitude of difference in HIV-related mortality between men and women receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART) is incompletely characterized.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

We evaluated HIV-positive adults ≥18 years old newly initiating ART in 4 Zambian provinces (Eastern, Lusaka, Southern, and Western). In addition to mortality data obtained from routine electronic medical records, we intensively traced a random sample of patients lost to follow-up (LTFU) and incorporated tracing outcomes through inverse probability weights. Sex-specific mortality rates and rate differences were determined using Poisson regression. Parametric g-computation was used to estimate adjusted mortality rates by sex and age. The study included 49,129 adults newly initiated on ART between August 2013 and July 2015; overall, the median age among patients was 35 years, the median baseline CD4 count was 262 cells/μl, and 37.2% were men. Men comprised a smaller proportion of individuals starting ART (37.2% versus 62.8%), tended to be older (median age 37 versus 33 years), and tended to have lower CD4 counts (median 220 versus 289 cells/μl) at the time of ART initiation compared to women. The overall rate of mortality among men was 10.3 (95% CI 8.2-12.4) deaths/100 person-years (PYs), compared to 5.5 (95% CI 4.3-6.8) deaths/100 PYs among women (difference +4.7 [95% CI 2.3-7.2] deaths/100 PYs; p < 0.001). Compared to women in the same age groups, men's mortality rates were particularly elevated among those <30 years old (+6.7 deaths/100 PYs difference), those attending rural health centers (+9.4 deaths/100 PYs difference), those who had an initial CD4 count < 100 cells/μl (+9.2 deaths/100 PYs difference), and those who were unmarried (+8.0 deaths/100 PYs difference). After adjustment for potential confounders and mediators including CD4 count, a substantially higher mortality rate was predicted among men <30 years old compared to women of the same age, while women ≥50 years old had a mortality rate similar to that of age-matched men, but considerably higher than that predicted among young women (<30 years old). No clinically significant differences were evident with respect to rates of facility transfer or care disengagement between men and women. The main study limitations were the inability to successfully ascertain outcomes in all patients selected for tracing and missing clinical and laboratory data due to the use of medical records.

CONCLUSIONS

In this study, we found that among HIV-positive adults newly initiating ART, mortality among men exceeded mortality among women; disparities were most pronounced among young patients. Older women, however, also experienced high mortality. Specific interventions for men and older women at highest mortality risk are needed to improve HIV treatment outcomes.

Better Virological Outcomes Among People Living With Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) Initiating Early Antiretroviral Treatment (CD4 Counts ≥500 Cells/µL) in the HIV Prevention Trials Network 071 (PopART) Trial in South Africa

BACKGROUND

There have been concerns about reduced adherence and human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) virological suppression (VS) among clinically well people initiating antiretroviral therapy (ART) with high pre-ART CD4 cell counts. We compared virological outcomes by pre-ART CD4 count, where universal ART initiation was provided in the HIV Prevention Trials Network 071 (PopART) trial in South Africa prior to routine national and international implementation.

METHODS

This prospective cohort study included adults initiating ART at facilities providing universal ART since January 2014. VS (<400 copies/mL), confirmed virological failure (VF) (2 consecutive viral loads >1000 copies/mL), and viral rebound were compared between participants in strata of baseline CD4 cell count.

RESULTS

The sample included 1901 participants. VS was ≥94% among participants with baseline CD4 count ≥500 cells/µL at all 6-month intervals to 30 months. The risk of an elevated viral load (≥400 copies/mL) was independently lower among participants with baseline CD4 count ≥500 cells/µL (3.3%) compared to those with CD4 count 200-499 cells/µL (9.2%) between months 18 and 30 (adjusted relative risk, 0.30 [95% confidence interval, .12-.74]; P = .010). The incidence rate of VF was 7.0, 2.0, and 0.5 per 100 person-years among participants with baseline CD4 count <200, 200-499, and ≥500 cells/µL, respectively (P < .0001). VF was independently lower among participants with baseline CD4 count ≥500 cells/µL (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR], 0.23; P = .045) and 3-fold higher among those with baseline CD4 count <200 cells/µL (aHR, 3.49; P < .0001).

CONCLUSIONS

Despite previous concerns, participants initiating ART with CD4 counts ≥500 cells/µL had very good virological outcomes, being better than those with CD4 counts 200-499 cells/µL.

CLINICAL TRIALS REGISTRATION

NCT01900977.

Exploring the Patterns of Use and Acceptability of Mobile Phones Among People Living With HIV to Improve Care and Treatment: Cross-Sectional Study in Three Francophone West African Countries

Background

The use of mobile technology in health care (mobile health [mHealth]) could be an innovative way to improve health care, especially for increasing retention in HIV care and adherence to treatment. However, there is a scarcity of studies on mHealth among people living with HIV (PLHIV) in West and Central Africa.

Objective

The aim of this study was to assess the acceptability of an mHealth intervention among PLHIV in three countries of West Africa.

Methods

A cross-sectional study among PLHIV was conducted in 2017 in three francophone West African countries: Côte d’Ivoire, Burkina Faso, and Togo. PLHIV followed in the six preselected HIV treatment and care centers, completed a standardized questionnaire on mobile phone possession, acceptability of mobile phone for HIV care and treatment, preference of mobile phone services, and phone sharing. Descriptive statistics and logistic regression were used to describe variables and assess factors associated with mHealth acceptability.

Results

A total of 1131 PLHIV—643 from Côte d’Ivoire, 239 from Togo, and 249 from Burkina Faso—participated in the study. Median age was 44 years, and 76.1% were women (n=861). Almost all participants owned a mobile phone (n=1107, 97.9%), and 12.6% (n=140) shared phones with a third party. Acceptability of mHealth was 98.8%, with the majority indicating their preference for both phone calls and text messages. Factors associated with mHealth acceptability were having a primary school education or no education (adjusted odds ratio=7.15, 95% CI 5.05-10.12; P<.001) and waiting over one hour before meeting a medical doctor on appointment day (adjusted odds ratio=1.84, 95% CI 1.30-2.62; P=.01).

Conclusions

The use of mHealth in HIV treatment and care is highly acceptable among PLHIV and should be considered a viable tool to allow West and Central African countries to achieve the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS 90-90-90 goals.

Antiretroviral Therapy-associated Adverse Drug Reactions and their Effects on Virologic Failure- A Retrospective Cohort Study in Nigeria

Background:

Adverse drug reactions (ADRs) associated with antiretroviral therapy (ART) can rapidly reverse the gains of ART resulting in poor health outcomes. We need an improved under-standing of specific ART-related ADRs that influence virologic outcomes.

Objective:

To investigate the frequency of clinical ADRs and assess their effect on virologic failure in patients on ART.

Method:

We described the prevalence of major clinical ADRs, and the association between specific ADRs and virologic failure in a clinic cohort of HIV-1 infected Nigerians aged ≥18 years, on first-line ART between June 2004 and February 2012. Multivariable logistic regression was run to identify predictors of virologic failure at 24 and 72 weeks of ART.

Results:

Data of 12,115 patients with a median age of 34 (interquartile range: 29-41) years, and pre-dominantly females (67%) were evaluated. Overall, 957 (7.9%) patients experienced at least one ADR during a median follow-up period of 4 years (interquartile range: 1-7). The three most prevalent ADRs were lipodystrophy (2.6%), anemia (1.9%), and skin rash (0.7%). Virologic failure rate was 36% and 34% at 24 and 72 weeks of ART, respectively. Anemia independently predicted the odds of virologic failure at 72 weeks of ART (adjusted odds ratio, 1.74; 95% CI: 1.2-2.51); adjusted for sex, age, pre-treatment CD4+ cell count, antiretroviral regimen, and medication refill adherence.

Conclusion:

Antiretroviral therapy-associated anemia increases the likelihood of late virologic failure. We recommend routine monitoring of hemoglobin levels and prompt management of anemia in all pa-tients on ART as a strategy to improve virologic success rates.

Baseline CD4 and mortality trends in the South African human immunodeficiency virus programme: Analysis of routine data

Background

Despite widespread availability of antiretroviral therapy (ART) in South Africa, there remains a considerable burden of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-related morbidity and mortality.

Objectives

To describe ART initiation and outcome trends over time, with a focus on clients presenting with advanced HIV-infection, so as to identify interventions to reduce morbidity and mortality.

Methods

Routine TIER.Net data from HIV-infected adults who had a documented baseline CD4 count and were newly initiating ART in Johannesburg or Mopani districts from 2004 to 2017 were analysed. Trends in baseline CD4 count and 5-year mortality were investigated and the population initiating ART with CD4 < 200 cells/mm³ was described.

Results

The Johannesburg and Mopani data sets comprised 203 131 and 101 814 records, respectively. Although median CD4 count increased over time, the proportion of initiations at CD4 < 200 cells/mm³ in 2017 remained high (Johannesburg 39%, Mopani 35%). Mortality was significantly increased among clients with CD4 < 200 compared to those with higher baseline counts (p < 0.001). Even though mortality among clients with low CD4 declined over time, likely because of improved drug regimens, in 2016-2017 mortality was still significantly increased among these clients (p < 0.001). Delivery of cotrimoxazole prophylaxis to clients with low CD4 declined over time to < 30% in 2017 and was associated with clinical stage. Presentation with CD4 < 200 cells/mm³ was associated with older age, male gender and hospitalisation.

Conclusion

A concerningly large proportion of South Africans still initiate ART at low CD4 counts. This is associated with increased mortality and requires targeted interventions to improve delivery of prophylactic regimens and early engagement in care.

Retention and viral suppression in a cohort of HIV patients on antiretroviral therapy in Zambia: Regionally representative estimates using a multistage-sampling-based approach

BACKGROUND

Although the success of HIV treatment programs depends on retention and viral suppression, routine program monitoring of these outcomes may be incomplete. We used data from the national electronic medical record (EMR) system in Zambia to enumerate a large and regionally representative cohort of patients on treatment. We traced a random sample with unknown outcomes (lost to follow-up) to document true care status and HIV RNA levels.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

On 31 July 2015, we selected facilities from 4 provinces in 12 joint strata defined by facility type and province with probability proportional to size. In each facility, we enumerated adults with at least 1 clinical encounter after treatment initiation in the previous 24 months. From this cohort, we identified lost-to-follow-up patients (defined as 90 or more days late for their last appointment), selected a random sample, and intensively reviewed their records and traced them via phone calls and in-person visits in the community. In 1 of 4 provinces, we also collected dried blood spots (DBSs) for plasma HIV RNA testing. We used inverse probability weights to incorporate sampling outcomes into Aalen-Johansen and Cox proportional hazards regression to estimate retention and viremia. We used a bias analysis approach to correct for the known inaccuracy of plasma HIV RNA levels obtained from DBSs. From a total of 64 facilities with 165,464 adults on ART, we selected 32 facilities with 104,966 patients, of whom 17,602 (17%) were lost to follow-up: Those lost to follow-up had median age 36 years, 60% were female (N = 11,241), they had median enrollment CD4 count of 220 cells/μl, and 38% had WHO stage 1 clinical disease (N = 10,690). We traced 2,892 (16%) and found updated outcomes for 2,163 (75%): 412 (19%) had died, 836 (39%) were alive and in care at their original clinic, 457 (21%) had transferred to a new clinic, 255 (12%) were alive and out of care, and 203 (9%) were alive but we were unable to determine care status. Estimates using data from the EMR only suggested that 42.7% (95% CI 38.0%-47.1%) of new ART starters and 72.3% (95% CI 71.8%-73.0%) of all ART users were retained at 2 years. After incorporating updated data through tracing, we found that 77.3% (95% CI 70.5%-84.0%) of new initiates and 91.2% (95% CI 90.5%-91.8%) of all ART users were retained (at original clinic or transferred), indicating that routine program data underestimated retention in care markedly. In Lusaka Province, HIV RNA levels greater than or equal to 1,000 copies/ml were present in 18.1% (95% CI 14.0%-22.3%) of patients in care, 71.3% (95% CI 58.2%-84.4%) of lost patients, and 24.7% (95% CI 21.0%-29.3%). The main study limitations were imperfect response rates and the use of self-reported care status.

CONCLUSIONS

In this region of Zambia, routine program data underestimated retention, and the point prevalence of unsuppressed HIV RNA was high when lost patients were accounted for. Viremia was prevalent among patients who unofficially transferred: Sustained engagement remains a challenge among HIV patients in Zambia, and targeted sampling is an effective strategy to identify such gaps in the care cascade and monitor programmatic progress.

Estimating the real-world effects of expanding antiretroviral treatment eligibility: Evidence from a regression discontinuity analysis in Zambia

BACKGROUND

Although randomized trials have established the clinical efficacy of treating all persons living with HIV (PLWHs), expanding treatment eligibility in the real world may have additional behavioral effects (e.g., changes in retention) or lead to unintended consequences (e.g., crowding out sicker patients owing to increased patient volume). Using a regression discontinuity design, we sought to assess the effects of a previous change to Zambia's HIV treatment guidelines increasing the threshold for treatment eligibility from 350 to 500 cells/μL to anticipate effects of current global efforts to treat all PLWHs.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

We analyzed antiretroviral therapy (ART)-naïve adults who newly enrolled in HIV care in a network of 64 clinics operated by the Zambian Ministry of Health and supported by the Centre for Infectious Disease Research in Zambia (CIDRZ). Patients were restricted to those enrolling in a narrow window around the April 1, 2014 change to Zambian HIV treatment guidelines that raised the CD4 threshold for treatment from 350 to 500 cells/μL (i.e., August 1, 2013, to November 1, 2014). Clinical and sociodemographic data were obtained from an electronic medical record system used in routine care. We used a regression discontinuity design to estimate the effects of this change in treatment eligibility on ART initiation within 3 months of enrollment, retention in care at 6 months (defined as clinic attendance between 3 and 9 months after enrollment), and a composite of both ART initiation by 3 months and retention in care at 6 months in all new enrollees. We also performed an instrumental variable (IV) analysis to quantify the effect of actually initiating ART because of this guideline change on retention. Overall, 34,857 ART-naïve patients (39.1% male, median age 34 years [IQR 28-41], median CD4 268 cells/μL [IQR 134-430]) newly enrolled in HIV care during this period; 23,036 were analyzed after excluding patients around the threshold to allow for clinic-to-clinic variations in actual guideline uptake. In all newly enrolling patients, expanding the CD4 threshold for treatment from 350 to 500 cells/μL was associated with a 13.6% absolute increase in ART initiation within 3 months of enrollment (95% CI, 11.1%-16.2%), a 4.1% absolute increase in retention at 6 months (95% CI, 1.6%-6.7%), and a 10.8% absolute increase in the percentage of patients who initiated ART by 3 months and were retained at six months (95% CI, 8.1%-13.5%). These effects were greatest in patients who would have become newly eligible for ART with the change in guidelines: a 43.7% increase in ART initiation by 3 months (95% CI, 37.5%-49.9%), 13.6% increase in retention at six months (95% CI, 7.3%-20.0%), and a 35.5% increase in the percentage of patients on ART at 3 months and still in care at 6 months [95% CI, 29.2%-41.9%). We did not observe decreases in ART initiation or retention in patients not directly targeted by the guideline change. An IV analysis found that initiating ART in response to the guideline change led to a 37.9% (95% CI, 28.8%-46.9%) absolute increase in retention in care. Limitations of this study include uncertain generalizability under newer models of care, lack of laboratory data (e.g., viral load), inability to account for earlier stages in the HIV care cascade (e.g., HIV testing and linkage), and potential for misclassification of eligibility status or outcome.

CONCLUSIONS

In this study, guidelines raising the CD4 threshold for treatment from 350 to 500 cells/μL were associated with a rapid rise in ART initiation as well as enhanced retention among newly treatment-eligible patients, without negatively impacting patients with lower CD4 levels. These data suggest that health systems in Zambia and other high-prevalence settings could substantially enhance engagement even among those with high CD4 levels (i.e., above 500 cells/μL) by expanding treatment without undermining existing care standards.