Beech Fructification and Bank Vole Population Dynamics--Combined Analyses of Promoters of Human Puumala Virus Infections in Germany

High-resolution early warning system for human Puumala hantavirus infection risk in Germany

The fluctuation of human infections by the Puumala orthohantavirus (PUUV) in Germany has been linked to weather and phenology parameters that drive the population growth of its host species. We quantified the annual PUUV-outbreaks at the district level by binarizing the reported infections in the period 2006-2021. With these labels we trained a model based on a support vector machine classifier for predicting local outbreaks and incidence well in advance. The feature selection for the optimal model was performed by a heuristic method and identified five monthly weather variables from the previous two years plus the beech flowering intensity of the previous year. The predictive power of the optimal model was assessed by a leave-one-out cross-validation in 16 years that led to an 82.8% accuracy for the outbreak and a 0.457 coefficient of determination for the incidence. Prediction risk maps for the entire endemic area in Germany will be annually available on a freely-accessible permanent online platform of the German Environment Agency. The model correctly identified 2022 as a year with low outbreak risk, whereas its prediction for large-scale high outbreak risk in 2023 was not confirmed.

Small mammal community composition impacts bank vole (Clethrionomys glareolus) population dynamics and associated seroprevalence of Puumala orthohantavirus

Rodents are important reservoirs for zoonotic pathogens that cause diseases in humans. Biodiversity is hypothesized to be closely related to pathogen prevalence through multiple direct and indirect pathways. For example, the presence of non-host species can reduce contact rates of the main reservoir host and thus reduce the risk of transmission ("dilution effect"). In addition, an overlap in ecological niches between two species could lead to increased interspecific competition, potentially limiting host densities and reducing density-dependent pathogen transmission processes. In this study, we investigated the relative impact of population-level regulation of direct and indirect drivers of the prevalence of Puumala orthohantavirus (PUUV) in bank voles (Clethrionomys glareolus) during years with high abundance. We compiled data on small mammal community composition from four regions in Germany between 2010 and 2013. Structural equation modeling revealed a strong seasonality in PUUV control mechanisms in bank voles. The abundance of shrews tended to have a negative relationship with host abundance, and host abundance positively influenced PUUV seroprevalence, while at the same time increasing the abundance of competing non-hosts like the wood mouse (Apodemus sylvaticus) and the yellow-necked field mouse (Apodemus flavicollis) were associated with reduced PUUV seroprevalence in the host. These results indicate that for PUUV in bank voles, dilution is associated with increased interspecific competition. Anthropogenic pressures leading to the decline of Apodemus spp. in a specific habitat could lead to the amplification of mechanisms promoting PUUV transmission within the host populations.

RNA virus diversity in rodents

Many zoonotic disease emergencies are associated with RNA viruses in rodents that substantially impact public health. With the widespread application of meta-genomics and meta-transcriptomics for virus discovery over the last decade, viral sequences deposited in public databases have expanded rapidly, and the number of novel viruses discovered in rodents has increased. As important reservoirs of zoonotic viruses, rodents have attracted increasing attention for the risk of potential spillover of rodent-borne viruses. However, knowledge of rodent viral diversity and the major factors contributing to the risk of zoonotic epidemic outbreaks remains limited. Therefore, this study analyzes the diversity and composition of rodent RNA viruses using virus records from the Database of Rodent-associated Viruses (DRodVir/ZOVER), which covers the published literatures and records in GenBank database, reviews the main rodent RNA virus-induced human infectious diseases, and discusses potential challenges in this field.

Correlation between airborne pollen data and the risk of tick-borne encephalitis in northern Italy

Tick-borne encephalitis (TBE) is caused by a flavivirus that infects animals including humans. In Europe, the TBE virus circulates enzootically in natural foci among ticks and rodent hosts. The abundance of ticks depends on the abundance of rodent hosts, which in turn depends on the availability of food resources, such as tree seeds. Trees can exhibit large inter-annual fluctuations in seed production (masting), which influences the abundance of rodents the following year, and the abundance of nymphal ticks two years later. Thus, the biology of this system predicts a 2-year time lag between masting and the incidence of tick-borne diseases such as TBE. As airborne pollen abundance is related to masting, we investigated whether inter-annual variation in pollen load could be directly correlated with inter-annual variation in the incidence of TBE in human populations with a 2-year time lag. We focused our study on the province of Trento (northern Italy), where 206 TBE cases were notified between 1992 and 2020. We tested the relationship between TBE incidence and pollen load collected from 1989 to 2020 for 7 different tree species common in our study area. Through univariate analysis we found that the pollen quantities recorded two years prior for two tree species, hop-hornbeam (Ostrya carpinifolia) and downy oak (Quercus pubescens), were positively correlated with TBE emergence (R² = 0.2) while a multivariate model with both tree species better explained the variation in annual TBE incidence (R² = 0.34). To the best of our knowledge, this is the first attempt at quantifying the correlation between pollen quantities and the incidence of TBE in human populations. As pollen loads are collected by widespread aerobiological networks using standardized procedures, our study could be easily replicated to test their potential as early warning system for TBE and other tick-borne diseases.

High Frequency of Apodemus Mice Boosts Inverse Activity Pattern of Bank Voles, Clethrionomys glareolus, through Non-Aggressive Intraguild Competition

Sympatric animals with similar requirements can separate their ecological niches along the microhabitat, food and time axes. There may be alternative reasons for an interspecific different activity pattern, such as intraspecific social constraints, predator avoidance or physical conditions such as temperature, precipitation and illumination. We investigated the importance of intraguild competition in a 2-year study in an inner-alpine mixed forest, using small forest rodents as our model species. Apodemus mice were the physically superior, and bank voles, Clethrionomys glareolus, the inferior competitor. We predicted that bank voles would exhibit increased diurnal activity when frequencies of the almost exclusively nocturnal Apodemus mice were high during a seed mast year. To investigate this, we recorded 19,138 1 min videos. Controlling for confounding variables, bank vole diurnal activity was significantly related to the frequency of Apodemus mice. We assume that at high densities of Apodemus mice, a purely nocturnal separation in the niche dimensions of time, habitat and microhabitat is no longer sufficient, and therefore an inverse activity pattern by the bank voles is reinforced. Our videos showed, however, that this does not require persistent aggressive meetings and we explain this by the long co-evolution of the taxa under study.

Habitat and Season Effects on Small Mammal Bycatch in Live Trapping

Trapping small mammals is frequently used to study the dynamics, demography, behavior and presence of pathogens. When only particular small mammal species are in the focus of interest, all other species are unnecessary bycatch. We analyzed data from extensive live trapping campaigns conducted over the last decade in Germany, following a consistent standard trapping protocol that resulted in about 18,500 captures of small mammals. Animals were trapped with Ugglan multiple capture traps in grassland, forest and margin habitat. Trap success and the proportion of bycatch were about 30% when target species were common voles (Microtus arvalis) in grassland and common voles and bank voles (Clethrionomys glareolus) in margins and forests. This was more pronounced in spring and along margins. Species mentioned in the early warning list according to the Red List Germany were higher in numbers and proportion in spring and in grassland. The results will help to avoid periods with enhanced presence of bycatch, including endangered species (if the purpose of the study allows) or to pay particular attention in certain seasons and habitats when the occurrence of bycatch is most likely.

Cluster of human Puumala orthohantavirus infections due to indoor exposure?-An interdisciplinary outbreak investigation

Puumala orthohantavirus (PUUV) is the most important hantavirus species in Europe, causing the majority of human hantavirus disease cases. In central and western Europe, the occurrence of human infections is mainly driven by bank vole population dynamics influenced by beech mast. In Germany, hantavirus epidemic years are observed in 2- to 5-year intervals. Many of the human infections are recorded in summer and early autumn, coinciding with peaks in bank vole populations. Here, we describe a molecular epidemiological investigation in a small company with eight employees of whom five contracted hantavirus infections in late 2017. Standardized interviews with employees were conducted to assess the circumstances under which the disease cluster occurred, how the employees were exposed and which counteractive measures were taken. Initially, two employees were admitted to hospital and serologically diagnosed with hantavirus infection. Subsequently, further investigations were conducted. By means of a self-administered questionnaire, three additional symptomatic cases could be identified. The hospital patients' sera were investigated and revealed in one patient a partial PUUV L segment sequence, which was identical to PUUV sequences from several bank voles collected in close proximity to company buildings. This investigation highlights the importance of a One Health approach that combines efforts from human and veterinary medicine, ecology and public health to reveal the origin of hantavirus disease clusters.

Spatial and temporal distribution patterns of tick-borne diseases (Tick-borne Encephalitis and Lyme Borreliosis) in Germany

BACKGROUND

In the face of ongoing climate warming, vector-borne diseases are expected to increase in Europe, including tick-borne diseases (TBD). The most abundant tick-borne diseases in Germany are Tick-Borne Encephalitis (TBE) and Lyme Borreliosis (LB), with Ixodes ricinus as the main vector.

METHODS

In this study, we display and compare the spatial and temporal patterns of reported cases of human TBE and LB in relation to some associated factors. The comparison may help with the interpretation of observed spatial and temporal patterns.

RESULTS

The spatial patterns of reported TBE cases show a clear and consistent pattern over the years, with many cases in the south and only few and isolated cases in the north of Germany. The identification of spatial patterns of LB disease cases is more difficult due to the different reporting practices in the individual federal states. Temporal patterns strongly fluctuate between years, and are relatively synchronized between both diseases, suggesting common driving factors. Based on our results we found no evidence that weather conditions affect the prevalence of both diseases. Both diseases show a gender bias with LB bing more commonly diagnosed in females, contrary to TBE being more commonly diagnosed in males.

CONCLUSION

For a further investigation of of the underlying driving factors and their interrelations, longer time series as well as standardised reporting and surveillance system would be required.

The Invasive Bank Vole (Myodes glareolus): A Model System for Studying Parasites and Ecoimmunology during a Biological Invasion

The primary driver of the observed increase in emerging infectious diseases (EIDs) has been identified as human interaction with wildlife and this increase has emphasized knowledge gaps in wildlife pathogens dynamics. Wild rodent models have proven excellent for studying changes in parasite communities and have been a particular focus of eco-immunological research. Helminth species have been shown to be one of the factors regulating rodent abundance and indirectly affect disease burden through trade-offs between immune pathways. The Myodes glareolus invasion in Ireland is a unique model system to explore the invasion dynamics of helminth species. Studies of the invasive population of M. glareolus in Ireland have revealed a verifiable introduction point and its steady spread. Helminths studies of this invasion have identified enemy release, spillover, spillback and dilution taking place. Longitudinal studies have the potential to demonstrate the interplay between helminth parasite dynamics and both immune adaptation and coinfecting microparasites as M. glareolus become established across Ireland. Using the M. glareolus invasion as a model system and other similar wildlife systems, we can begin to fill the large gap in our knowledge surrounding the area of wildlife pathogen dynamics.

Common Themes in Zoonotic Spillover and Disease Emergence: Lessons Learned from Bat- and Rodent-Borne RNA Viruses

Rodents (order Rodentia), followed by bats (order Chiroptera), comprise the largest percentage of living mammals on earth. Thus, it is not surprising that these two orders account for many of the reservoirs of the zoonotic RNA viruses discovered to date. The spillover of these viruses from wildlife to human do not typically result in pandemics but rather geographically confined outbreaks of human infection and disease. While limited geographically, these viruses cause thousands of cases of human disease each year. In this review, we focus on three questions regarding zoonotic viruses that originate in bats and rodents. First, what biological strategies have evolved that allow RNA viruses to reside in bats and rodents? Second, what are the environmental and ecological causes that drive viral spillover? Third, how does virus spillover occur from bats and rodents to humans?

Population cycles and outbreaks of small rodents: ten essential questions we still need to solve

Most small rodent populations in the world have fascinating population dynamics. In the northern hemisphere, voles and lemmings tend to show population cycles with regular fluctuations in numbers. In the southern hemisphere, small rodents tend to have large amplitude outbreaks with less regular intervals. In the light of vast research and debate over almost a century, we here discuss the driving forces of these different rodent population dynamics. We highlight ten questions directly related to the various characteristics of relevant populations and ecosystems that still need to be answered. This overview is not intended as a complete list of questions but rather focuses on the most important issues that are essential for understanding the generality of small rodent population dynamics.

Spatial and Temporal Evolutionary Patterns in Puumala Orthohantavirus (PUUV) S Segment

The S segment of bank vole (Clethrionomys glareolus)-associated Puumala orthohantavirus (PUUV) contains two overlapping open reading frames coding for the nucleocapsid (N) and a non-structural (NSs) protein. To identify the influence of bank vole population dynamics on PUUV S segment sequence evolution and test for spillover infections in sympatric rodent species, during 2010–2014, 883 bank voles, 357 yellow-necked mice (Apodemus flavicollis), 62 wood mice (A. sylvaticus), 149 common voles (Microtus arvalis) and 8 field voles (M. agrestis) were collected in Baden-Wuerttemberg and North Rhine-Westphalia, Germany. In total, 27.9% and 22.3% of bank voles were positive for PUUV-reactive antibodies and PUUV-specific RNA, respectively. One of eight field voles was PUUV RNA-positive, indicating a spillover infection, but none of the other species showed evidence of PUUV infection. Phylogenetic and isolation-by-distance analyses demonstrated a spatial clustering of PUUV S segment sequences. In the hantavirus outbreak years 2010 and 2012, PUUV RNA prevalence was higher in our study regions compared to non-outbreak years 2011, 2013 and 2014. NSs amino acid and nucleotide sequence types showed temporal and/or local variation, whereas the N protein was highly conserved in the NSs overlapping region and, to a lower rate, in the N alone coding part.

Tick-borne encephalitis incidence forecasts for Austria, Germany, and Switzerland

The forecast of human tick-borne encephalitis (TBE) incidence for the next years has been on the research agenda of epidemiologists since the discovery of this tick-borne zoonosis. Based on models to explain the trend as well as the low- and high-frequency oscillations in the Austrian TBE incidence series, TBE forecasts for Austria, Germany and Switzerland are presented here. For this purpose, generalized linear models (GLMs) of type negative binomial regression were calibrated with the TBE incidences of the period 1991-2018 to forecast the TBE incidences 2019 and 2020. The GLMs require only 4-5 predictors, 2 of which are large-scale synchronized over Central Europe and used for all 3 countries. Predictors used include the demographic parameters total population and net migration rate, the Scandinavian index which describes the large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns, the fructification index of the European beech (Fagus sylvatica) 2 years prior as a proxy for the intensity of the TBE virus transmission cycle, and the national TBE vaccination coverage. Since an official time series of TBE vaccination coverage is only available for Austria, the missing TBE vaccination coverages of Germany and Switzerland were reconstructed and presented as the first results. Model verification results in explained variances of 76% for Austria, 84% for Germany, and 89% for Switzerland. Thus, the best model fit was determined for the Swiss GLM which is able to predict the TBE incidence with a root-mean-square error of RMSE = 25 cases (19% of the mean TBE incidence 1991-2018 or 7% of the TBE incidence of 2018). Forecasting TBE incidences for 2019 and 2020 results in 92 ± 12 and 142 ± 26 TBE cases for Austria, 417 ± 71 and 670 ± 168 TBE cases for Germany as well as 235 ± 30 and 465 ± 91 TBE cases for Switzerland.

Modeling the Effects of Resource-Driven Immune Defense on Parasite Transmission in Heterogeneous Host Populations

Individuals experience heterogeneous environmental conditions that can affect within-host processes such as immune defense against parasite infection. Variation among individuals in parasite shedding can cause some hosts to contribute disproportionately to population-level transmission, but we currently lack mechanistic theory that predicts when environmental conditions can result in large disease outbreaks through the formation of immunocompromised superspreading individuals. Here, I present a within-host model of a microparasite's interaction with the immune system that links an individual host's resource intake to its infectious period. For environmental scenarios driving population-level heterogeneity in resource intake (resource scarcity and resource subsidy relative to baseline availability), I generate a distribution of infectious periods and simulate epidemics on these heterogeneous populations. I find that resource scarcity can result in large epidemics through creation of superspreading individuals, while resource subsidies can reduce or prevent transmission of parasites close to their invasion threshold by homogenizing resource allocation to immune defense. Importantly, failure to account for heterogeneity in competence can result in under-prediction of outbreak size, especially when parasites are close to their invasion threshold. More generally, this framework suggests that differences in conditions experienced by individual hosts can lead to superspreading via differences in resource allocation to immune defense alone, even in the absence of other heterogeneites such as host contacts.

[Leptospirosis in Germany: current knowledge on pathogen species, reservoir hosts, and disease in humans and animals]

Leptospirosis is a zoonotic disease with a wide spectrum of clinical symptoms in humans and animals, ranging from subclinical infections to severe signs of multiorgan dysfunction. In Germany, laboratory confirmation of acute human infection is notifiable based on the Protection Against Infection Act. Disease or occurrence of the pathogen in pigs and sheep must be reported according to the regulation on reportable animal diseases. Transmission occurs via direct and indirect contact with the urine of infected animals, with rodents acting as the main reservoir. With an average annual incidence of 0.1 notified cases per 100,000 inhabitants, leptospirosis is a rare disease in Germany.This review article presents the current knowledge on leptospirosis in Germany in the framework of the project "Improving public health through a better understanding of the epidemiology of rodent-transmitted diseases" (RoBoPub) funded by the Ministry of Education and Research. In a One-Health approach, information about clinical manifestation, available prevalence data in humans and animals, knowledge of pathogen distribution, host association, mode of transmission, and survival in the environment is summarized. Preliminary findings on the influence of fluctuations in rodent populations on the occurrence of leptospirosis are also discussed. The aim of the article is to increase the awareness of this currently neglected disease in Germany.In future, higher temperatures and more frequent heavy rainfalls, which could occur due to climate change, should be taken into account.

Heterogeneous Puumala orthohantavirus situation in endemic regions in Germany in summer 2019

Puumala orthohantavirus (PUUV) causes most human hantavirus disease cases in Europe. PUUV disease outbreaks are usually synchronized Germany-wide driven by beech mast-induced irruptions of its host (bank vole, Myodes glareolus). Recent data indicate high vole abundance, high PUUV prevalence and high human incidence in summer 2019 for some regions, but elsewhere values were low to moderate. This significant lack of synchrony among regions in Germany is in contrast to previous studies. Health institutions need to be informed about the heterogeneous distribution of human PUUV infection risk to initiate appropriate actions.

Population Dynamics of Bank Voles Predicts Human Puumala Hantavirus Risk

Predicting risk of zoonotic diseases, i.e., diseases shared by humans and animals, is often complicated by the population ecology of wildlife host(s). We here demonstrate how ecological knowledge of a disease system can be used for early prediction of human risk using Puumala hantavirus (PUUV) in bank voles (Myodes glareolus), which causes Nephropathia epidemica (NE) in humans, as a model system. Bank vole populations at northern latitudes exhibit multiannual fluctuations in density and spatial distribution, a phenomenon that has been studied extensively. Nevertheless, existing studies predict NE incidence only a few months before an outbreak. We used a time series on cyclic bank vole population density (1972-2013), their PUUV infection rates (1979-1986; 2003-2013), and NE incidence in Sweden (1990-2013). Depending on the relationship between vole density and infection prevalence (proportion of infected animals), either overall density of bank voles or the density of infected bank voles may be used to predict seasonal NE incidence. The density and spatial distribution of voles at density minima of a population cycle contribute to the early warning of NE risk later at its cyclic peak. When bank voles remain relatively widespread in the landscape during cyclic minima, PUUV can spread from a high baseline during a cycle, culminating in high prevalence in bank voles and potentially high NE risk during peak densities.

The ecological dynamics of hantavirus diseases: From environmental variability to disease prevention largely based on data from China

Hantaviruses can cause hantavirus pulmonary syndrome (HPS) in the Americas and hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) in Eurasia. In recent decades, repeated outbreaks of hantavirus disease have led to public concern and have created a global public health burden. Hantavirus spillover from natural hosts into human populations could be considered an ecological process, in which environmental forces, behavioral determinants of exposure, and dynamics at the human–animal interface affect human susceptibility and the epidemiology of the disease. In this review, we summarize the progress made in understanding hantavirus epidemiology and rodent reservoir population biology. We mainly focus on three species of rodent hosts with longitudinal studies of sufficient scale: the striped field mouse (Apodemus agrarius, the main reservoir host for Hantaan virus [HTNV], which causes HFRS) in Asia, the deer mouse (Peromyscus maniculatus, the main reservoir host for Sin Nombre virus [SNV], which causes HPS) in North America, and the bank vole (Myodes glareolus, the main reservoir host for Puumala virus [PUUV], which causes HFRS) in Europe. Moreover, we discuss the influence of ecological factors on human hantavirus disease outbreaks and provide an overview of research perspectives.

Spatial dynamics of a zoonotic orthohantavirus disease through heterogenous data on rodents, rodent infections, and human disease

Zoonotic diseases are challenging to study from the ecological point of view as, broadly speaking, datasets tend to be either detailed on a small spatial extent, or coarse on a large spatial extent. Also, there are many ways to assess zoonotic disease transmission systems, from pathogens to hosts to humans. We explore the complementarity of datasets considering the pathogen in its host, the host and human cases in the context of Puumala orthohantavirus infection in Germany. We selected relevant environmental predictors using a conceptual framework based on resource-based habitats. This framework assesses the functions, and associated environmental resources of the pathogen and associated host. A resource-based habitat framework supports variable selection and result interpretation. Multiplying ‘keyholes’ to view a zoonotic disease transmission system is valuable, but requires a strong conceptual framework to select and interpret environmental explanatory variables. This study highlights the usefulness of a structured, ecology-based approach to study drivers of zoonotic diseases at the level of virus, host, and human - not only for PUUV but also for other zoonotic pathogens. Our results show that human disease cases are best explained by a combination of variables related to zoonotic pathogen circulation and human exposure.

Forecasting next season's Ixodes ricinus nymphal density: the example of southern Germany 2018

The castor bean tick, Ixodes ricinus (L.) (Ixodida: Ixodidae), is the principal vector of pathogens causing tick-borne encephalitis or Lyme borreliosis in Europe. It is therefore of general interest to make an estimate of the density of I. ricinus for the whole year at the beginning of the tick season. There are two necessary conditions for making a successful prediction: a long homogeneous time series of observed tick density and a clear biological relationship between environmental predictors and tick density. A 9-year time series covering the period 2009-2017 of nymphal I. ricinus flagged at monthly intervals in southern Germany has been used. With the hypothesis that I. ricinus density is triggered by the fructification of the European beech 2 years before, the mean annual temperature of the previous year, and the current mean winter temperature (December-February), a forecast of the annual nymphal tick density has been made. Therefore, a Poisson regression model was generated resulting in an explained variance of 93.4% and an error of [Formula: see text] ticks per [Formula: see text] (annual [Formula: see text] collected ticks/[Formula: see text]). An independent verification of the forecast for the year 2017 resulted in 187 predicted versus 180 observed nymphs per [Formula: see text]. For the year 2018 a relatively high number of 443 questing I. ricinus nymphs per [Formula: see text] is forecasted, i.e., a "good" tick year.

First insights into Puumala orthohantavirus circulation in a rodent population in Alsace, France

In-depth knowledge on the mechanisms that maintain infection by a zoonotic pathogen in an animal reservoir is the key to predicting and preventing transmission to humans. The Puumala orthohantavirus (PUUV), the most prevalent orthohantavirus in Western Europe, causes a mild form of haemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) in humans. In France, this endemic illness affects the north-eastern part of the country. We conducted a 4-year capture-mark-recapture study in a bank vole population, combined with molecular analyses, to explore the epidemiological situation of PUUV in Alsace, a French region where human cases have occurred, but for which no studies have been conducted on this reservoir host. PUUV-infected bank voles were detected in the 2 years that showed high bank vole density with a prevalence of 4%. The individual PUUV sequences identified in this study were similar from year to year and similar to other French sequences. On a very small spatial scale, the distribution of seropositive bank voles was very heterogeneous in time and space. The short distances travelled on average by bank voles resulted in spatial clusters of seropositive rodents, which spread only very gradually throughout the year.

[Climate change - physical and mental consequences]

Climate change has already had a large influence on the human environmental system and directly or indirectly affects physical and mental health. Triggered by extreme meteorological conditions, for example, storms, floods, earth slides and heat periods, the direct consequences range from illnesses to serious accidents with injuries, or in extreme cases fatalities. Indirectly, a changed environment due to climate change affects, amongst other things, the cardiovascular system and respiratory tract, and can also cause allergies and infectious diseases. In addition, increasing confrontation with environmental impacts may cause negative psychological effects such as posttraumatic stress disorders and anxiety, but also aggression, distress and depressive symptoms. The extent and severity of the health consequences depend on individual pre-disposition, resilience, behaviour and adaptation.

Spatial and temporal patterns of human Puumala virus (PUUV) infections in Germany

Background

Worldwide, the number of recorded human hantavirus infections as well as the number of affected countries is on the rise. In Europe, most human hantavirus infections are caused by the Puumala virus (PUUV), with bank voles (Myodes glareolus) as reservoir hosts. Generally, infection outbreaks have been related to environmental conditions, particularly climatic conditions, food supply for the reservoir species and land use. However, although attempts have been made, the insufficient availability of environmental data is often hampering accurate temporal and spatially explicit models of human hantavirus infections.

Methods

In the present study, dynamics of human PUUV infections between 2001 and 2015 were explored using ArcGIS in order to identify spatio-temporal patterns.

Results

Percentage cover of forest area was identified as an important factor for the spatial pattern, whereas beech mast was found explaining temporal patterns of human PUUV infections in Germany. High numbers of infections were recorded in 2007, 2010 and 2012 and areas with highest records were located in Baden-Wuerttemberg (southwest Germany) and North Rhine-Westphalia (western Germany).

Conclusion

More reliable data on reservoir host distribution, pathogen verification as well as an increased awareness of physicians are some of the factors that should improve future human infection risk assessments in Germany.

Hantaviruses and a neglected environmental determinant

Most human pathogenic hantaviruses cause severe hemorrhagic fevers with a high rate of fatalities, such as occurs due to the genotypes causing hantavirus cardiopulmonary syndrome carried by the New World Sigmodontinae and Neotominae rodents. An increasing number of outbreaks and the possibility of cases spreading over international borders have led to greater interest in these viruses and the environmental determinants that facilitate their transmission. Rodents, shrews, moles and bats act as reservoir hosts of hantaviruses, and within the hantavirus transmission flow, the prevalence and distribution of infection in reservoir hosts is influenced by a range of factors. Climate change and landscape alteration affect hantavirus transmission, but the outcomes can differ among different hantaviruses and for the same virus in differentbiomes. However, it is evident that the underlying mechanisms that mediate hantavirus transmission are largely unknown, so that much work remains to be done regarding the transmission dynamics of hantaviruses. Overall, our review highlights the importance of examining interactions over several trophic levels and the underlying mechanisms (density and trait-mediated indirect effects) linking predation risk and hantavirus transmission, to develop an ecological framework to understand disease in natural, preserved and degraded systems.

Seasonal cycles of the TBE and Lyme borreliosis vector Ixodes ricinus modelled with time-lagged and interval-averaged predictors

Ticks of the species Ixodes ricinus (L.) are the major vectors for tick-borne diseases in Europe. The aim of this study was to quantify the influence of environmental variables on the seasonal cycle of questing I. ricinus. Therefore, an 8-year time series of nymphal I. ricinus flagged at monthly intervals in Haselmühl (Germany) was compiled. For the first time, cross correlation maps were applied to identify optimal associations between observed nymphal I. ricinus densities and time-lagged as well as temporal averaged explanatory variables. To prove the explanatory power of these associations, two Poisson regression models were generated. The first model simulates the ticks of the entire time series flagged per 100 m[Formula: see text], the second model the mean seasonal cycle. Explanatory variables comprise the temperature of the flagging month, the relative humidity averaged from the flagging month and 1 month prior to flagging, the temperature averaged over 4-6 months prior to the flagging event and the hunting statistics of the European hare from the preceding year. The first model explains 65% of the monthly tick variance and results in a root mean square error (RMSE) of 17 ticks per 100 m[Formula: see text]. The second model explains 96% of the tick variance. Again, the accuracy is expressed by the RMSE, which is 5 ticks per 100 m[Formula: see text]. As a major result, this study demonstrates that tick densities are higher correlated with time-lagged and temporal averaged variables than with contemporaneous explanatory variables, resulting in a better model performance.

Intrinsic and extrinsic factors related to pathogen infection in wild small mammals in intensive milk cattle and swine production systems

BACKGROUND

Understanding the ecological processes that are involved in the transmission of zoonotic pathogens by small mammals may aid adequate and effective management measures. Few attempts have been made to analyze the ecological aspects that influence pathogen infection in small mammals in livestock production systems. We describe the infection of small mammals with Leptospira spp., Brucella spp., Trichinella spp. and Cysticercus fasciolaris and assess the related intrinsic and extrinsic factors in livestock production systems in central Argentina at the small mammal community, population and individual levels.

METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

Ten pig farms and eight dairy farms were studied by removal trapping of small mammals from 2008 to 2011. Each farm was sampled seasonally over the course of one year with cage and Sherman live traps. The 505 small mammals captured (14,359 trap-nights) included three introduced murine rodents, four native rodents and two opossums. Leptospira spp., anti-Brucella spp. antibodies and Trichinella spp. were found in the three murine rodents and both opossums. Rattus norvegicus was also infected with C. fasciolaris; Akodon azarae and Oligoryzomys flavescens with Leptospira spp.; anti-Brucella spp. antibodies were found in A. azarae. Two or more pathogens occurred simultaneously on 89% of the farms, and each pathogen was found on at least 50% of the farms. Pathogen infections increased with host abundance. Infection by Leptospira spp. also increased with precipitation and during warm seasons. The occurrence of anti-Brucella spp. antibodies was higher on dairy farms and during the winter and summer. The host abundances limit values, from which farms are expected to be free of the studied pathogens, are reported.

CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE

Murine rodents maintain pathogens within farms, whereas other native species are likely dispersing pathogens among farms. Hence, we recommend preventing and controlling murines in farm dwellings and isolating farms from their surroundings to avoid contact with other wild mammals.

Modelling human Puumala hantavirus infection in relation to bank vole abundance and masting intensity in the Netherlands

This paper deals with modelling the relationship between human Puumala hantavirus (PUUV) infection, the abundance and prevalence of infection of the host (the bank vole), mast, and temperature. These data were used to build and parametrise generalised regression models, and parametrise them using datasets on these factors pertaining to the Netherlands. The performance of the models was assessed by considering their predictive power. Models including mast and monthly temperature performed well, and showed that mast intensity influences vole abundance and hence human exposure for the following year. Thus, the model can aid in forecasting of human illness cases, since (1) mast intensity influences the vole abundance and hence human exposure for the following year and (2) monitoring of mast is much more feasible than determining bank vole abundance.

Leptospira spp. in Small Mammals from Areas with Low and High Human Hantavirus Incidences in South-West Germany

INTRODUCTION

Leptospirosis is caused by Leptospira spp. and is considered the most widespread zoonotic disease worldwide. It mimics nephropathia epidemica in humans, a disease mainly caused by Puumala hantavirus (PUUV). Small mammals are reservoirs for Leptospira spp. and PUUV. Seewis virus (SWSV) is a shrew-borne hantavirus with unknown pathogenicity. The objective of this study was to estimate the prevalence for Leptospira spp. and the frequency of Leptospira-hantavirus co-infections in small mammals collected at locations with high and low incidences in humans.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

In 2012 and 2013, 736 small mammals belonging to seven species (Apodemus flavicollis, Microtus agrestis, Microtus arvalis, Myodes glareolus, Sorex araneus, S. coronatus, and S. minutus) were collected at four high incidence sites (H1-H4) and four low (L1-L4) incidence sites for PUUV infection in humans. Kidney-derived DNA samples were tested for Leptospira spp. by real-time PCR targeting the lipl 32 gene and further analyzed by duplex PCR targeting the flaB and the secY genes. For the detection of Seewis virus, lung-derived DNA was tested via RT-PCR targeting the nucleocapsid gene.

RESULTS

Altogether, 42 of the 736 small mammals including 27 of 660 bank voles and 11 of 66 shrews, were positive for Leptospira spp., while Sorex spp. (14.7%) showed significantly higher prevalences compared to bank voles (4.1%). Detected Leptospira spp. were pathogenic species other than L. kirschneri. Significantly more Leptospira-positive bank voles were found at H sites than at L sites. Altogether 22.2% of positive bank voles were infected with PUUV. Double infection of PUUV and Leptospira spp. occurrence in bank voles is 1.86 times (OR = 1.86; 95% CI: 0.72-4.73) more likely than infections with each pathogen separately.

DISCUSSION

Leptospira- positive bank voles are focally positively associated with PUUV infection in bank voles and with human hantavirus cases. It should be considered that shrews may serve as Leptospira spp. reservoirs.

Puumala hantavirus infections in bank vole populations: host and virus dynamics in Central Europe

BACKGROUND

In Europe, bank voles (Myodes glareolus) are widely distributed and can transmit Puumala virus (PUUV) to humans, which causes a mild to moderate form of haemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome, called nephropathia epidemica. Uncovering the link between host and virus dynamics can help to prevent human PUUV infections in the future. Bank voles were live trapped three times a year in 2010-2013 in three woodland plots in each of four regions in Germany. Bank vole population density was estimated and blood samples collected to detect PUUV specific antibodies.

RESULTS

We demonstrated that fluctuation of PUUV seroprevalence is dependent not only on multi-annual but also on seasonal dynamics of rodent host abundance. Moreover, PUUV infection might affect host fitness, because seropositive individuals survived better from spring to summer than uninfected bank voles. Individual space use was independent of PUUV infections.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study provides robust estimations of relevant patterns and processes of the dynamics of PUUV and its rodent host in Central Europe, which are highly important for the future development of predictive models for human hantavirus infection risk.

Long-term population patterns of rodents and associated damage in German forestry

BACKGROUND

Several rodent species can damage forest trees, especially at young tree age in afforestation. Population outbreaks of field voles (Microtus agrestis L.) and bank voles (Myodes glareolus Schreber) in particular can cause losses.

RESULTS

Analyses of long-term time series indicate good synchrony of population abundance in rodent species associated with damage in forestry. This synchrony could be related to the effect of beech (Fagus spec.) mast in the previous year on population growth rates of both species. In shorter time series from Eastern Germany, damage in forestry was mostly associated with autumn abundances of rodents. Environmental factors such as beech mast and snow cover did not explain additional variation in rodent damage to trees.

CONCLUSIONS

Beech mast is a good indicator of long-term rodent abundance in Northern German afforestation areas. However, rodent damage to forestry in Central Germany did not seem to depend on environmental parameters other than rodent abundance at large scale. As a result, there is still uncertainty about the link between environmental predictors and rodent damage to forestry, and further experimental work is required to identify suitable environmental drivers and their interplay with other potential factors such as the local predator community. © 2016 Society of Chemical Industry.

A highly divergent Puumala virus lineage in southern Poland

Puumala virus (PUUV) represents one of the most important hantaviruses in Central Europe. Phylogenetic analyses of PUUV strains indicate a strong genetic structuring of this hantavirus. Recently, PUUV sequences were identified in the natural reservoir, the bank vole (Myodes glareolus), collected in the northern part of Poland. The objective of this study was to evaluate the presence of PUUV in bank voles from southern Poland. A total of 72 bank voles were trapped in 2009 at six sites in this part of Poland. RT-PCR and IgG-ELISA analyses detected three PUUV positive voles at one trapping site. The PUUV-infected animals were identified by cytochrome b gene analysis to belong to the Carpathian and Eastern evolutionary lineages of bank vole. The novel PUUV S, M and L segment nucleotide sequences showed the closest similarity to sequences of the Russian PUUV lineage from Latvia, but were highly divergent to those previously found in northern Poland, Slovakia and Austria. In conclusion, the detection of a highly divergent PUUV lineage in southern Poland indicates the necessity of further bank vole monitoring in this region allowing rational public health measures to prevent human infections.

Reservoir-Driven Heterogeneous Distribution of Recorded Human Puumala virus Cases in South-West Germany

Endemic regions for Puumala virus (PUUV) are located in the most affected federal state Baden-Wuerttemberg, South-West Germany, where high numbers of notified human hantavirus disease cases have been occurring for a long time. The distribution of human cases in Baden-Wuerttemberg is, however, heterogeneous, with a high number of cases recorded during 2012 in four districts (H districts) but a low number or even no cases recorded in four other districts (L districts). Bank vole monitoring during 2012, following a beech (Fagus sylvatica) mast year, resulted in the trapping of 499 bank voles, the host of PUUV. Analyses indicated PUUV prevalences of 7-50% (serological) and 1.8-27.5% (molecular) in seven of eight districts, but an absence of PUUV in one L district. The PUUV prevalence differed significantly between bank voles in H and L districts. In the following year 2013, 161 bank voles were trapped, with reduced bank vole abundance in almost all investigated districts except one. In 2013, no PUUV infections were detected in voles from seven of eight districts. In conclusion, the linear modelling approach indicated that the heterogeneous distribution of human PUUV cases in South-West Germany was caused by different factors including the abundance of PUUV RNA-positive bank voles, as well as by the interaction of beech mast and the proportional coverage of beech and oak (Quercus spec.) forest per district. These results can aid developing local public health risk management measures and early warning models.

Validation of the Puumala virus rapid field test for bank voles in Germany

Puumala virus (PUUV) causes many human infections in large parts of Europe and can lead to mild to moderate disease. The bank vole (Myodes glareolus) is the only reservoir of PUUV in Central Europe. A commercial PUUV rapid field test for rodents was validated for bank-vole blood samples collected in two PUUV-endemic regions in Germany (North Rhine-Westphalia and Baden-Württemberg). A comparison of the results of the rapid field test and standard ELISAs indicated a test efficacy of 93-95%, largely independent of the origin of the antigens used in the ELISA. In ELISAs, reactivity for the German PUUV strain was higher compared to the Swedish strain but not compared to the Finnish strain, which was used for the rapid field test. In conclusion, the use of the rapid field test can facilitate short-term estimation of PUUV seroprevalence in bank-vole populations in Germany and can aid in assessing human PUUV infection risk.

Declining ecosystem health and the dilution effect

The “dilution effect” implies that where species vary in susceptibility to infection by a pathogen, higher diversity often leads to lower infection prevalence in hosts. For directly transmitted pathogens, non-host species may “dilute” infection directly (1) and indirectly (2). Competitors and predators may (1) alter host behavior to reduce pathogen transmission or (2) reduce host density. In a well-studied system, we tested the dilution of the zoonotic Puumala hantavirus (PUUV) in bank voles (Myodes glareolus) by two competitors and a predator. Our study was based on long-term PUUV infection data (2003–2013) in northern Sweden. The field vole (Microtus agrestis) and the common shrew (Sorex araneus) are bank vole competitors and Tengmalm’s owl (Aegolius funereus) is a main predator of bank voles. Infection probability in bank voles decreased when common shrew density increased, suggesting that common shrews reduced PUUV transmission. Field voles suppressed bank vole density in meadows and clear-cuts and indirectly diluted PUUV infection. Further, Tengmalm’s owl decline in 1980–2013 may have contributed to higher PUUV infection rates in bank voles in 2003–2013 compared to 1979–1986. Our study provides further evidence for dilution effect and suggests that owls may have an important role in reducing disease risk.

Spatial and Temporal Epidemiology of Nephropathia Epidemica Incidence and Hantavirus Seroprevalence in Rodent Hosts: Identification of the Main Environmental Factors in Europe

In Europe, the increasing number of nephropathia epidemica (NE) infections in humans, caused by Puumala virus carried by bank voles (Myodes glareolus), has triggered studies of environmental factors driving these infections. NE infections have been shown to occur in specific geographical areas characterized by environmental factors that influence the distribution and dynamics of host populations and virus persistence in the soil. Here, we review the influence of environmental conditions (including climate factors, food availability and habitat conditions) with respect to incidence in humans and seroprevalence in rodents, considering both direct and indirect transmission pathways. For each type of environmental factor, results and discrepancies between studies are presented and examined in the light of biological hypotheses. Overall, food availability and temperature appear to be the main drivers of host seroprevalence and NE incidence, but data quality and statistical approaches varied greatly among studies. We highlight the issues that now need to be addressed and suggest improvements for study design in regard to the current knowledge on hantavirus epidemiology.

Temporal dynamics of Puumala hantavirus infection in cyclic populations of bank voles

Understanding the dynamics of zoonotic pathogens in their reservoir host populations is a prerequisite for predicting and preventing human disease epidemics. The human infection risk of Puumala hantavirus (PUUV) is highest in northern Europe, where populations of the rodent host (bank vole, Myodes glareolus) undergo cyclic fluctuations. We conducted a 7-year capture-mark-recapture study to monitor seasonal and multiannual patterns of the PUUV infection rate in bank vole populations exhibiting a 3-year density cycle. Infected bank voles were most abundant in mid-winter months during years of increasing or peak host density. Prevalence of PUUV infection in bank voles exhibited a regular, seasonal pattern reflecting the annual population turnover and accumulation of infections within each year cohort. In autumn, the PUUV transmission rate tracked increasing host abundance, suggesting a density-dependent transmission. However, prevalence of PUUV infection was similar during the increase and peak years of the density cycle despite a twofold difference in host density. This may result from the high proportion of individuals carrying maternal antibodies constraining transmission during the cycle peak years. Our exceptionally intensive and long-term dataset provides a solid basis on which to develop models to predict the dynamic public health threat posed by PUUV in northern Europe.

Selective predation on hantavirus-infected voles by owls and confounding effects from landscape properties

It has been suggested that predators may protect human health through reducing disease-host densities or selectively preying on infected individuals from the population. However, this has not been tested empirically. We hypothesized that Tengmalm's owl (Aegolius funereus) selectively preys on hantavirus-infected individuals of its staple prey, the bank vole (Myodes glareolus). Bank voles are hosts of Puumala hantavirus, which causes a form of hemorrhagic fever in humans. Selective predation by owls on infected voles may reduce human disease risk. We compared the prevalence of anti-Puumala hantavirus antibodies (seroprevalence), in bank voles cached by owls in nest boxes to seroprevalence in voles trapped in closed-canopy forest around each nest box. We found no general difference in seroprevalence. Forest landscape structure could partly account for the observed patterns in seroprevalence. Only in more connected forest patches was seroprevalence in bank voles cached in nest boxes higher than seroprevalence in trapped voles. This effect disappeared with increasing forest patch isolation, as seroprevalence in trapped voles increased with forest patch isolation, but did not in cached voles. Our results suggest a complex relationship between zoonotic disease prevalence in hosts, their predators, and landscape structure. Some mechanisms that may have caused the seroprevalence patterns in our results include higher bank vole density in isolated forest patches. This study offers future research potential to shed further light on the contribution of predators and landscape properties to human health.