Geophysical variables and behavior: LXXII. Barometric pressure, lunar cycle, and traffic accidents

Moonlight surgery: no influence of moon phase or Friday 13th on outcomes of total knee arthroplasty

OBJECTIVES

The purpose of the present study was to investigate associations between revision-free survival and functional scores of total knee arthroplasty (TKA) and moon phase on the day of surgery, as well as operations performed on a Friday 13th.

PARTICIPANTS

The data of all patients that received TKA between 2003 and 2019 were extracted from the Tyrol arthroplasty registry. Patients that had undergone previous total or partial knee arthroplasty as well as patients that had missing pre- or post-operative WOMAC were excluded. Patients were allocated to one of the following four groups according to moon phase on the day of surgery: new, waxing, full and waning. Patients operated on a Friday 13th were also identified and compared to patients operated on any other days/dates. A total of 5923 patients met the inclusion criteria, with mean age of 69 ± 9 years, and comprising 62% women.

RESULTS

There were no significant differences in revision-free survival among the four moon phase groups (p = 0.479), and no significant differences in preoperative and postoperative total WOMAC (p = 0.260, p = 0.122), There were no significant differences in revision-free survival patients operated on Friday 13th vs. other days/dates (p = 0.440). The preoperative total WOMAC was significantly worse for patients operated on a Friday 13th (p = 0.013), which was observed in the pain (p = 0.032) and function (p = 0.010) subscales. There were no significant differences in postoperative total WOMAC at 1 year follow-up (p = 0.122).

CONCLUSIONS

Neither moon phase on the day of surgery nor Friday 13th were associated with revision-free survival or clinical scores of TKA. Patients operated on a Friday 13th had significantly worse preoperative total WOMAC but similar postoperative total WOMAC at 1-year follow-up. These findings could help reassure patients that TKA renders consistent outcomes regardless of the preoperative pain or function, and in spite of bad omens or moon phases.

Lunar cycle in homicides: a population-based time series study in Finland

OBJECTIVE

To test whether homicides in Finland vary according to moon phases.

DESIGN

A time series study.

SETTING

Finland.

PARTICIPANTS

6808 homicides committed in 1961-2014.

OUTCOME

Daily numbers of homicides.

METHOD

The daily numbers of homicides were related to eight moon phases and the illuminated percentage of the moon disc using negative binomial regression. To identify lunar patterns, piecewise linear terms of lunar days were used, together with changes from one moon phase to another. Homicides were similarly regressed on quintiles of the illuminated percentage of the moon disc. A periodic term of length 29.53 days was included to detect cyclic patterns. The results were adjusted for sex, age, secular trend, distance from the moon, seasons, weekday, major holidays and temperature.

RESULTS

During the full moon, 15% less homicides were committed than during the new moon (RR 0.85; 95% CI 0.77 to 0.94) and 86% less during the lightest quintile of illumination compared with the darkest quintile (RR 0.14; 95% CI 0.04 to 0.50). Adjustments did not change the results. Piecewise linear regressions showed a significant decline in homicides at the full moon and a rise thereafter. The full moon drop in homicides was directionally similar for seasons, weekdays, sex, age and time periods, and it was particularly pronounced in the early part of period studied (1961-1974). Periodic regression showed a regular cyclic pattern of length 29.53 days (p~0.035).

CONCLUSIONS

Contrary to current scientific opinion, an association exists between moon phases and homicides, and contrary to what has been previously assumed, homicides declined during the full moon, especially in earlier decades. However, the causality of the association remains elusive.

The full moon and motorcycle related mortality: population based double control study

OBJECTIVE

To test whether a full moon contributes to motorcycle related deaths.

DESIGN

Population based, individual level, double control, cross sectional analysis.

SETTING

Nighttime (4 pm to 8 am), United States.

PARTICIPANTS

13 029 motorcycle fatalities throughout the United States, 1975 to 2014 (40 years).

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE

Motorcycle fatalities during a full moon.

RESULTS

13 029 motorcyclists were in fatal crashes during 1482 relevant nights. The typical motorcyclist was a middle aged man (mean age 32 years) riding a street motorcycle with a large engine in a rural location who experienced a head-on frontal impact and was not wearing a helmet. 4494 fatal crashes occurred on the 494 nights with a full moon (9.10/night) and 8535 on the 988 control nights without a full moon (8.64/night). Comparisons yielded a relative risk of 1.05 associated with the full moon (95% confidence interval 1.02 to 1.09, P=0.005), a conditional odds ratio of 1.26 (95% confidence interval 1.17 to 1.37, P<0.001), and an absolute increase of 226 additional deaths over the study interval. The increase extended to diverse types of motorcyclists, vehicles, and crashes; was accentuated during a supermoon; and replicated in analyses from the United Kingdom, Canada, and Australia.

CONCLUSION

The full moon is associated with an increased risk of fatal motorcycle crashes, although potential confounders cannot be excluded. An awareness of the risk might encourage motorcyclists to ride with extra care during a full moon and, more generally, to appreciate the power of seemingly minor distractions at all times.

Moon phases and moon signs do not influence morbidity, mortality and long-term survival, after living donor kidney transplantation

Background

Approximately 11% of the German population are convinced that certain moon phases and moon signs may impact their health and the onset and clinical course of diseases. Before elective surgery, a considerable number of patients look to optimize the timing of the procedure based on the lunar cycle. Especially patients awaiting living donor kidney transplantation (LDKT) commonly look for an adjustment of the date of transplantation according to the moon calendar. This study therefore investigated the perioperative and long-term outcome of LDKT dependent on moon phases and zodiac signs.

Methods

Patient data were prospectively collected in a continuously updated kidney transplant database. Two hundred and seventy-eight consecutive patients who underwent LDKT between 1994 and December 2009 were selected for the study and retrospectively assigned to the four moon phases (new-moon, waxing-moon, full-moon, and waning-moon) and the corresponding zodiac sign (moon sign Libra), based on the date of transplantation. Preexisting comorbidities, perioperative mortality, surgical outcome, and long-term survival data were analyzed.

Results

Of all LDKT procedures, 11.9, 39.9, 11.5, and 36.5% were performed during the new, waxing, full, and waning moon, respectively, and 6.2% during the moon sign Libra, which is believed to interfere with renal surgery. Survival rates at 1, 5, and 10 years after transplantation were 98.9, 92, and 88.7% (patient survival) and 97.4, 91.6, and 80.6% (graft survival) without any differences between all groups of lunar phases and moon signs. Overall perioperative complications and early graft loss occurred in 21.2 and 1.4%, without statistical difference (p > 0.05) between groups.

Conclusion

Moon phases and the moon sign Libra had no impact on early and long-term outcome measures following LDKT in our study. Thus, concerns of patients awaiting LDKT regarding the ideal time of surgery can be allayed, and surgery may be scheduled independently of the lunar phases.

Relationship between lunar cycle and haemorrhagic complication rate in surgery

BACKGROUND

The aim of this study was to evaluate a possible relationship between lunar cycles and haemorrhagic complication rate in surgery.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

The possible relationship between moon phases and surgical outcome was tested by evaluating the haemorrhagic complication rate for 18,760 patients who underwent surgery between January 2001 and December 2008 at the National Institute for Cancer Research in Genoa. A total of 103 lunar phases were considered using Chi-square (χ²) test analysis, and patients were allocated a surgery date.

RESULTS

One hundred and sixty-seven haemorrhagic complications were observed. Three hundred and nine new moon phase days were analysed and 12 incidences of complications detected, with a 3.9% complication rate per day. In the waxing moon phase, 1184.5 d were analysed with 68 incidences of complications at a daily rate of 5.7%. In the full moon phase there was a 4.9% complication rate per day (15 incidences in 309 d), whereas in the waning moon phase, the 6% percentage rate per day resulted from 72 incidences in 1184.5 d.

CONCLUSIONS

No statistically significant correlations were found between moon cycles and postoperative haemorrhagic complications (p = .50).

Retrospective evaluation of canine and feline maxillomandibular trauma cases. Comparison of lunar cycle and seasonality with non-maxillomandibular traumatic injuries (2003-2012)

OBJECTIVES

To determine relationships between seasonality and lunar cycle and the frequency of maxillomandibular (MM) and non-maxillomandibular (non-MM) injury in canine and feline trauma patients.

METHODS

A medical records database was searched to identify all MM trauma patients (n = 67) and a random sample of non-MM trauma patients (n = 129) according to search criteria. Season of injury, moon phase, and moon luminosity were calculated for the date of injury.

RESULTS

Maxillomandibular injury occurred predominately in the spring and decreased through winter while non-MM injury occurred more frequently in the summer and fall. The difference in the frequency of MM and non-MM injuries during different seasons was not significant (p = 0.071). When comparing the amount of moon illuminated when injuries occurred during the quarters before or after the full moon, a difference (p = 0.007) was noted with a greater number of injuries occurring immediately following the full moon.

CLINICAL SIGNIFICANCE

These results may guide clinicians to closely evaluate trauma patients that are presented on emergency during a particular season or lunar phase. Based on the season at the time of injury, close evaluation for MM versus non-MM trauma may be appropriate.

Answering the myth: use of emergency services on Friday the 13th

OBJECTIVE

The aim of the study was to evaluate the risk of Friday the 13th on hospital admission rates and emergency department (ED) visits.

METHODS

This was a retrospective chart review of all ED visits on Friday the 13th from November 13, 2002, to December 13, 2009, from 6 hospital-based EDs. Thirteen unlikely conditions were evaluated as well as total ED volumes. As a control, the Friday before and after and the month before and after were used. χ(2) Analysis and Wilcoxon rank sum tests were used for each variable, as appropriate.

RESULTS

A total of 49 094 patient encounters were evaluated. Average ED visits for Friday the 13th were not increased compared with the Friday before and after and the month before. However, compared with the month after, there were fewer ED visits on Friday the 13th (150.1 vs 134.7, P = .011). Of the 13 categories evaluated, only penetrating trauma was noted to have an increase risk associated with Friday the 13th (odds ratio, 1.65; 95% confidence interval, 1.04-2.61). No other category was noted to have an increase risk on Friday the 13th compared with the control dates.

CONCLUSIONS

Although the fear of Friday the 13th may exist, there is no worry that an increase in volume occurs on Friday the 13th compared with the other days studies. Of 13 different conditions evaluated, only penetrating traumas were seen more often on Friday the 13th. For those providers who work in the ED, working on Friday the 13th should not be any different than any other day.

The impact of the lunar cycle on the incidence of trauma

Over thousands of years it has been thought that the moon influences human behaviour and the world around us. We reviewed the literature for evidence of a relation of the lunar cycle with the incidence of trauma. We searched Pubmed for studies relating the moon and its phases to trauma. Nine studies were found, of which one suggested an inverse relation of full moon with the incidence of trauma. The lunar cycle might influence trauma incidence, but if any real effect exists, it is certainly small. Moreover such an effect does not require paranormal explanations.

Traffic accidents and environmental physical activity

Environmental physical activity (EPA) is considered as one of main regulators of human homeostasis. Evidence is growing that components of this activity through the "human factor" (i.e., changing human physiological and psychological status) can affect the dynamics of traffic accidents (TA)-the modern life epidemic. This paper presents results of studies conducted in order to reveal the potential influence of EPA [solar (SA), geomagnetic (GMA) and cosmic ray (CRA) activities] on the number of TA and related casualties in the years of the maximum and declining phase of SA cycle 23 (2000-2005). We selected the 7,160 most severe TA and their related 7,558 deaths and 1,647 severe injuries, registered in the Grand Baku Area (Azerbaijan, middle latitudes), for analysis. A significant increase of TA and victims was observed during the whole year and also during the last months of the year. The monthly numbers of TA and victims were inversely related to SA (probability p = 0.0002), and non-significantly to background GMA, but were significantly affected by major geomagnetic disturbances and storms. A strong correlation between CRA variations (cosmic ray intensity measured by ground-based neutron monitors on the Earth's surface) and the number of TA (p = 0.001) has been observed. It was found that the number of TA which occur within a month depends significantly on the particular month of the year, the CRA, and the SA levels (inverse correlation). The increase of the number of TA is also significantly linked to geomagnetic storms, but not to steady GMA. These effects can be related to changes in human functional and behavioral markers provoked by EPA influences.

Onset of spontaneous pneumothorax and the synodic lunar cycle

The relation between spontaneous pneumothorax events and synodic lunar cycle was studied in a retrospective analysis of patients with a first or recurrent spontaneous pneumothorax. The study included a total of 244 patients, 203 males and 41 females. The data were arranged along the first (new moon) to 28th day (one day before another new moon) of the synodic lunar cycle. Periodogram analysis revealed a 14-day rhythm, significant for the male and pooled sample. Cosinor analysis found the whole synodic lunar cycle and its 2nd, 4th and 5th harmonics as significant. Maximal accumulation of cases happened 1 week before and 1 week after the new moon. Mechanisms of a putative moon influence are not clear.

LUNACY REVISITED

The idea that the stars and planets may influence human health and behavior can be traced to at least Roman times, and research suggests a high proportion of health professionals continue to hold this belief. Nevertheless, evidence for the supposed influence of the moon on human behavior has proved particularly elusive, and research has tended to suffer from weaknesses in methodology and data analysis. This article reports findings drawn from a re-analysis of data from a research study into the functioning of a sample of mentally ill people living in the community. The mental health and quality of life of a sample of 100 people were assessed on four occasions during a 30-month period. Data were aggregated to represent the span of one lunar month, with scores being allocated to the relevant week of the lunar cycle during which each assessment was made. Comparison of mean values across the weeks of the lunar cycle was preformed using the ANOVA, Results showed significant change at the time of the full moon only in subjects with a diagnosis of schizophrenia (n = 56), where deterioration was observed in three areas of psychopathology and one area of quality of life. Some implications for nursing practice are discussed, and it is suggested that future research into the possibility of a lunar effect on human life should focus on the direct measurement of functioning in people with schizophrenia.

Lunar cycles and violent behaviour

OBJECTIVE

It is commonly believed that the full moon exerts an influence on violence and aggression in psychiatric settings. The literature to date is contentious. This study used a robust methodology to examine the hypothesis that there was an increased frequency of violent and aggressive behaviour among hospitalised psychiatric clients at the time of the full moon.

METHOD

Prospective data were collected in five inpatient psychiatric settings across the Northern Sydney Area Health Service. Morrison's hierarchy of violence and aggression was used to rate behaviour. Lunar phases were clearly defined and Poisson regression used to examine relationships between lunar phase and violence. Extraneous temporal variation was considered.

RESULTS

No significant relationship was found between total violence and aggression or level of violence and aggression and any phase of the moon.

CONCLUSION

Future research could profitably examine the implications of a belief in the lunar effect among health workers in the face of evidence that no relationship exists between violence, aggression and the lunar cycle.

Lunar cycle and consultations for anxiety and depression in general practice

The influence of the moon on patient consultations for anxiety or depression in general practice was assessed through a retrospective survey based on general practice medical records and on lunar records detailing the dates and times of different phases of the moon. Seven-hundred-eighty-two patients continuously registered in a general practice in Beckenham, South London, between 1971 and 1988 were included in analyses. No statistically significant lunar effect was found by setting the expected surge in consultations one to three days after the full moon and the period of the sine-wave curve to 30 days. Similarly, no statistically significant lunar effect was found, when the period of the sine-wave curve was allowed to vary in order to best fit the data. The moon had little influence on when individuals consulted their general practitioner with anxiety or depression.