Machine learning to predict overall short-term mortality in cutaneous melanoma

BACKGROUND

Cutaneous malignant melanoma (CMM) ranks among the ten most frequent malignancies, clinicopathological staging being of key importance to predict prognosis. Artificial intelligence (AI) has been recently applied to develop prognostically reliable staging systems for CMM. This study aims to provide a useful machine learning based tool to predict the overall CMM short-term survival.

METHODS

CMM records as collected at the Veneto Cancer Registry (RTV) and at the Veneto regional health service were considered. A univariate Cox regression validated the strength and direction of each independent variable with overall mortality. A range of machine learning models (Logistic Regression classifier, Support-Vector Machine, Random Forest, Gradient Boosting, and k-Nearest Neighbors) and a Deep Neural Network were then trained to predict the 3-years mortality probability. Five-fold cross-validation and Grid Search were performed to test the best data preprocessing procedures, features selection, and to optimize models hyperparameters. A final evaluation was carried out on a separate test set in terms of balanced accuracy, precision, recall and F1 score. The best model was deployed as online tool.

RESULTS

The univariate analysis confirmed the significant prognostic value of TNM staging. Adjunctive clinicopathological variables not included in the AJCC 8th melanoma staging system, i.e., sex, tumor site, histotype, growth phase, and age, were significantly linked to overall survival. Among the models, the Neural Network and the Random Forest models featured the best prognostic performance, achieving a balanced accuracy of 91% and 88%, respectively. According to the Gini importance score, age, T and M stages, mitotic count, and ulceration appeared to be the variables with the greatest impact on survival prediction.

CONCLUSIONS

Using data from patients with CMM, we developed an AI algorithm with high staging reliability, on top of which a web tool was implemented ( unipd.link/melanomaprediction ). Being essentially based on routinely recorded clinicopathological variables, it can already be implemented with minimal effort and further tested in the current clinical practice, an essential phase for validating the model's accuracy beyond the original research context.

Estimated direct costs of renal cancer by stage and care phase: a whole disease modeljuj

Background

Renal cell carcinoma (RCC) is the seventh most common neoplasm in high-income countries. New clinical pathways have been developed to deal with this tumor, which include costly drugs that pose an economic threat to the sustainability of healthcare services. This study provides an estimate of the direct costs of care for patients with RCC by stage of disease (early vs advanced) at diagnosis, and disease management phase along the pathway recommended by local and international guidelines.

Methods

Considering the clinical pathway for RCC adopted in the Veneto region (north-east Italy) and the latest guidelines, we developed a very detailed “whole-disease” model that covers the probabilities of all potentially necessary diagnostic and therapeutic action involved in the management of RCC. Based on the cost of each procedure according to the Veneto Regional Authority's official reimbursement tariffs, we estimated the total and average per-patient costs by stage of disease (early or advanced) and phase of its management.

Results

In the first year after diagnosis, the mean expected cost of a patient with RCC is €12,991 if it is localized or locally-advanced, and reaches €40,586 if it is advanced. For early disease, the main cost is incurred by surgery, whereas medical therapy (first and second line) and supportive care become increasingly important for metastatic disease.

Conclusions

It is crucially important to examine the direct costs of care for RCC, and to predict the burden on healthcare services of new oncological therapies and treatments, as the findings could be useful for policy-makers planning the allocation of resources.

Key messages

An estimation of the direct costs of renal cell carcinoma, and in general for cancer, appears fundamental to predict the burden of new oncological therapies and treatments on healthcare services. Our model could represent a useful tool for policy-makers in the optimization of resources allocation, especially in a time of budget constraints.

Non–Small-Cell Lung Cancer: Real-World Cost Consequence Analysis

Background

The present work aimed at conducting a real-world data analysis on the management costs and survival analysis comparing data from non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC) cases diagnosed in the Veneto region before (2015) and after (2017) the implementation of a regional diagnostic and therapeutic pathway including all new diagnostic and therapeutic strategies.

Methods

This study considered 254 incidental cases of NSCLC in 2015 and 228 in 2017 within the territory of the Padua province (Italy), as recorded by the Veneto Cancer Registry. Tobit regression analysis was performed to verify if total and each item costs (2 years after NSCLC diagnosis) are associated with index year, adjusting by year of diagnosis, sex, age, and stage at diagnosis. Logistic regression models were run to study overall mortality at 2 years, adjusting by the same covariates.

Results

The 2017 cohort had a lower mortality odd (odds ratio, 0.93; P = .02) and a significant increase in the average overall costs (P = .009) than the 2015 cohort. The Tobit regression analysis by cost item showed a very significant increase in the average cost of drugs (coefficient = 5,953, P 5 .008) for the 2017 cohort, as well as a decrease in the average cost of hospice care (coefficient = -1,822.6, P = .022).

Conclusions

Our study showed a survival improvement for patients with NSCLC as well as an economic burden growth. Physicians should therefore be encouraged to follow new clinical care pathways, while the steadily rising related costs underscore the need for policymakers and health professionals to pursue the most rational utilization of public resources.

Key messages

Our work underscores the importance of real-world assessment of costs in oncology, especially in case of a disease like NSCLC, which has such a high impact on treatment costs and patient outcomes. New therapies prolong survival for patients with NSCLC but their sustainability reminds of the importance of prevention: the earlier the diagnosis, the longer the survival and the lower the costs.

[Fragility in a Public Health perspective: principles and tools for a "life course" approach prevention- oriented]

The Covid-19 pandemic significantly increased the workload for the Italian Health Service. There is few information in the literature on the pediatric population and on the management of pediatric hospitals. The aim of this article is to describe the management of healthcare services during Covid-19 emergency in Regina Margherita Children's Hospital. The Regina Margherita Children's Hospital is specialized in the prevention, diagnosis and treatment of pediatric diseases. About 1000 health worker work in this Hospital and 278 hospitalization places are available.

Health issues in female Moldovan migrants in a north-eastern Italian region

Background

Migration from Eastern Europe to Italy is still massively expanding, with a subsequent increase of migrants in the job market who are traditionally employed in low specialized and high strain jobs. In this context Health Literacy is a known factor contributing to immigrant health disparities. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the health status of a population of migrant Moldovan women and their access to health care services in northern Italy by age class and health literacy level.

Methods

We administered an ad-hoc questionnaire to adult Moldovan women to assess their lifestyles, employment status, reported health status, access to Health Services and Health Literacy. Moreover, the study compared our data with a sample of Italian women of the same age range living in North-Eastern region interviewed in 2015. Analysis employs descriptive statistics.

Results

The sample included 170 Moldovan women (age 46.5 ±12.3). Prevalence of active smokers was found double in women with a low Health Literacy. Health Literacy status also determined the different access to Public Health Services, with women with higher literacy using more programmed health services and screening programs, and women with lower literacy conversely using more emergency health services. Overall reported health status was found worse in our sample than in Italian women and reported disease prevalence among age ranges was different than Italian ones with an increased probability for allergies, lumbar diseases and depression.

Conclusions

Some diseases have a higher prevalence in Moldovan than in Italian women. Health literacy is associated with lifestyles and use of health care services also in migrants, as previously demonstrated for native population.

Key messages

Tailored prevention programs and intervention should be designed in Moldovan women to address high prevalence diseases in this population. Strategy to improve health literacy should involve immigrants. Some diseases resulted well-spread over the whole sample and not influenced by age or employment; the difficulties migrants have to overcome might influence their health status.

Estimated direct costs of non-small-cell lung cancer by stage and care phase: a whole disease model

Background

Non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC) is the first cause of cancer-related death among men and the second among women worldwide. It also poses an economic threat to the sustainability of healthcare services. This study estimates the direct costs of care for patients with NSCLC by stage at diagnosis and management phase of pathway recommended in local and international guidelines.

Methods

Based on the most up-to-date guidelines we developed a detailed “whole-disease” model that lists the probabilities of all potentially necessary diagnostic and therapeutic actions involved in the management of each stage of NSCLC. Then we assigned the cost sustained by the public authorities to each procedure, obtaining an estimate of the total and average per-patient costs of each stage of the disease and management phase in Veneto Region, Italy.

Results

The mean expected cost of a patient with NSCLC is 22,968 € in the first year: 20,222 € in stage I, 23,935 € in stage II, 23,027 € in stage III, 22,915 € in stage IV and 31,749 € for Pancoast's tumors. In the second year the mean per patient-costs patient ranged from 2,722 €, for a patient with stage I disease, to 13,396 € for a patient with stage IV, with an overall average cost of 8,307 €. In the early stages, the main cost was due to surgery, whereas in the more advanced stages radiotherapy, medical therapy, treatment for progressions and supportive care become variously more important.

Conclusions

Our study enabled a prediction of the direct costs and outcomes for patients diagnosed with NSCLC on a two-year timeline after the diagnosis. An estimation of the direct costs of NSCLC, and in general for cancer, appears fundamental to predict the burden of new oncological therapies and treatments on healthcare services, and, in our opinion, our model could represent a useful tool for policy-makers in the optimization of resources allocation.

Key messages

Whole disease model allows an economic evaluation of a clinical pathway. The model is able to estimate direct costs of NSCLC by disease stage and management phase within a time horizon of two years. High cost-surgery makes the early stages no less expensive than advanced stages during the first year. In the second year, an advanced stage case costs almost five times more than an early stage case.

Awareness of HPV and drivers of HPV vaccine uptake among university students in Italy

Key messages

There is room for improving the awareness of HPV. Efforts are likely to be worth since it remains the main determinant of vaccine uptake. Awareness has been growing but a gender gap still persists. Communication should focus more on HPV involvement in neoplasia other than cervical cancer; transmission via skin to skin contact; multiple sex partnership; partial protection of condom.

Health professionals as parents are not immune to vaccine hesitancy – an Italian national survey

Key messages

Hesitancy is associated with lifestyle choices, experience of adverse reactions and socioeconomic status, while education and employment as health professional seem not to be relevant. Whether they are health professionals or not, parents’ attitude towards their child’s vaccinations is the same.

Opinions and beliefs in vaccine hesitant parents in Italy: what makes the difference

Key messages

While hesitant parents share some concerns with pro-vaccine, relevant opinion gaps may serve as warning lights, pointing at topics potentially harbouring the most sensitive drivers of hesitancy. Communication strategies should primarily focus on raising acquaintance of hesitant parents with benefits arising from herd immunity and compliance with the suggested vaccination schedule.

Perception and knowledge of HPV-related and vaccine-related conditions among a large cohort of university students in Italy

HPV is involved in cervical, anal, penile, vulvar and oropharyngeal cancers, as well as genital warts. It is important to investigate knowledge and attitudes among university students, considering in this age a shift in healthcare decision-making from parents to students themselves. The aim of this study was to estimate knowledge and perception of HPV in terms of potential shame for HPV-related conditions, trust in vaccine efficacy and worry for potential side effects. The study involved students (18-25 years old) from the Universities of Padua and Verona, Italy. Socio-demographic and behavioural characteristics were collected with a questionnaire (n = 9988). Female gender and older age were positively associated with higher knowledge. The adjusted logistic regression showed an association between the set of perceptions investigated and the vaccination status, while a direct connection with knowledge was not found. However, another adjusted linear regression showed that a good set of perceptions could be partially explained by a high level of knowledge. Perceptions seem to fill an intermediate position between the knowledge and the decision to get vaccinated. The potential shame deriving from asking for HPV-vaccination was not identified as a relevant barrier. Having received information from healthcare workers, family and school showed to be positively associated with the adhesion to the vaccination policy. This study identifies university students as a possible target for HPV vaccination and pinpoints specific areas that might be targeted as first to encourage vaccine uptake. Primary prevention together with screening programmes remains essential in further reducing the burden of HPV-related diseases.

Marital status and stage of cancer at diagnosis: A systematic review

Early cancer detection is fundamental to the promotion of better health in the community, but disparities remain in the likelihood of cancer being detected at an early stage, some of which relate to socio-demographic factors such as marital status. The aim of this study was to conduct a systematic review of research on the association between marital status and stage at diagnosis of different types of cancer. A comprehensive systematic literature search was run in the Medline and Scopus databases (from January 1990 to June 2014), identifying 245 and 208 articles on PubMed and Scopus respectively. Of these 453 studies, 18 were judged eligible for this systematic review. A quality assessment was performed on the studies using the 22 items in the STROBE (Strengthening the Reporting of Observational Studies in Epidemiology) checklist. This review confirmed the important influence of being married on the earlier detection of cancer. None of the studies considered identified more cases of cancer in a later stage among married patients, and the majority of them reported a statically significant association between marital status and stage at diagnosis, with a positive effect of marriage on the likelihood of cancer being diagnosed at an early stage, for various types of malignancy. In particular, our meta-analysis showed that the unmarried have higher odds of having a later stage of breast cancer (OR = 1.287 95% CI: 1.025-1.617) or melanoma (OR = 1.350 95% CI: 1.161-1.570) at diagnosis. Specific interventions should be developed for the unmarried population to improve their chances of any neoplasms being diagnosed at an early stage, thereby reducing health disparities in the population at large.

Cost-effectiveness of emergency versus delayed laparoscopic cholecystectomy for acute gallbladder pathology

BACKGROUND

The optimal timing of cholecystectomy for patients admitted with acute gallbladder pathology is unclear. Some studies have shown that emergency cholecystectomy during the index admission can reduce length of hospital stay with similar rates of conversion to open surgery, complications and mortality compared with a 'delayed' operation following discharge. Others have reported that cholecystectomy during the index acute admission results in higher morbidity, extended length of stay and increased costs. This study examined the cost-effectiveness of emergency versus delayed cholecystectomy for acute benign gallbladder disease.

METHODS

Using data from a prospective population-based cohort study examining the outcomes of cholecystectomy in the UK and Ireland, a model-based cost-utility analysis was conducted from the perspective of the UK National Health Service, with a 1-year time horizon for costs and outcomes. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis was used to investigate the impact of parameter uncertainty on the results obtained from the model.

RESULTS

Emergency cholecystectomy was found to be less costly (£4570 versus £4720; €5484 versus €5664) and more effective (0·8868 versus 0·8662 QALYs) than delayed cholecystectomy. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis showed that the emergency strategy is more than 60 per cent likely to be cost-effective across willingness-to-pay values for the QALY from £0 to £100 000 (€0-120 000).

CONCLUSION

Emergency cholecystectomy is less costly and more effective than delayed cholecystectomy. This approach is likely to be beneficial to patients in terms of improved health outcomes and to the healthcare provider owing to the reduced costs.

Impact of pneumococcal conjugate vaccination: a retrospective study of hospitalization for pneumonia in North-East Italy

INTRODUCTION

Pneumonia remains a common reason for hospitalizing infants and the elderly worldwide, and streptococcal infection is often responsible. The aim of this study was to assess the burden of pneumonia in a large general population.

METHODS

All pneumonia-related hospitalizations from 2004 to 2013 in north-east Italy were identified from the hospital records with a first-listed diagnosis on discharge of bacterial pneumonia, or a first-listed diagnosis on discharge of meningitis, septicemia or empyema associated with a secondary diagnosis of bacterial pneumonia. We identified major comorbidities, calculated agespecific case-fatality rates (CFR), and estimated the related cost to the health care system.

RESULTS

Of the 125,722 hospitalizations identified, 96.9% were cases of pneumonia, 2.4% of septicemia, 0.4% of meningitis, and 0.3% of empyema; 75.3% of hospitalizations involved ≥ 65-yearolds. The overall CFR was 12.4%, and it increased with age, peaking in people over 80 (19.6%). The mean annual pneumonia-associated hospitalization rate was 204.6 per 100,000 population, and it peaked in 0- to 4-year-old children (325.6 per 100,000 in males, 288.9 per 100,000 in females), and adults over 65 (844.9 per 100,000 in males, 605.7 per 100,000 in females). Hospitalization rates dropped over the years for the 0-4 year-olds, and rose for people over 80. The estimated overall annual cost of these pneumonia-related hospitalizations was approximately € 41 million.

CONCLUSIONS

This study shows that the burden on resources for pneumonia-related hospitalization is an important public health issue. Prevention remains the most valuable tool for containing pneumonia, and vaccination strategies can help in the primary prevention of infection, possibly reducing the number of cases in all age groups.

A surveillance system of Invasive Pneumococcal Disease in North-Eastern Italy

BACKGROUND

From 2007, in the Veneto Region (Italy), a surveillance system for invasive pneumococcal diseases (IPD) was implemented to estimate the regional epidemiology of IPD and to evaluate the impact of 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV13) vaccination.

METHODS

Data were collected from 2007 to 2014 and the total, annual and age-specific IPD notification rates were calculated. A Poisson regression model was used to identify the possible risk factors for developing IPD.

RESULTS

A total of 713 IPD cases were notified and the overall IPD notification rate was equal to 2.0 cases per 100,000 population (95% CI: 1.7-2.1), with an increasing trend between 2007 and 2014. The pneumococcal serotypes were identified in 608 (85.3%) isolates from biological specimens, and the most distributed serotypes were those contained in PCV13. Children <5 year-old and the adults over 65 year-old showed the highest PCV13 vaccine-type IPD notification rate, equal to 2.7/100,000 and 2.8/100,000, respectively. The risk to develop IPD was greater in children aged <5 years (RR = 8.9, 95% CI: 5.1-15.9; p<0.0001) and in adults aged >65 years (RR = 4.3, 95% CI: 2.7-6.9; p<0.0001), especially in males > 65 years of age (RR = 1.7, 95% CI: 1.0-2.8; p = 0.042). The invasive pneumococcal disease was mainly caused by the PCV13 serotypes (RR = 2.9, 95%CI: 2.3-3.9; p<0.0001), principally after the PCV13 introduction (RR = 2.3, 95% CI: 1.4-3.8; p<0.001). In spite of that, a significant reduction of the overall IPD incidence is evident in the period following the PCV13 vaccine introduction (RR = 0.4, 95% CI: 0.3-0.5; p<0.0001), particularly in children aged <5 years (RR = 0.3, 95% CI: 0.2-0.7; p = 0.002), demonstrating the real efficacy of PCV13 immunization for children.

CONCLUSIONS

In the Veneto Region, the surveillance system has allowed to describe the detailed epidemiological profile of invasive pneumococcal disease, pointing out that the most circulating pneumococcal serotypes were those contained in the PCV13 vaccine.

The new pandemic influenza A/(H1N1)pdm09 virus: is it really "new"?

In June 2009, the World Health Organization (WHO) issued a pandemic alert concerning the spread of an influenza A (H1N1) virus that showed distinctive genetic characteristics vis-à-vis both seasonal influenza strains and vaccine strains. The main mutation occurred in the gene coding for hemagglutinin (HA). Mathematical models were developed to calculate the transmissibility of the virus; the results indicated a significant overlap with the transmissibility of previous pandemic strains and seasonal strains. The remarkable feature of A/(H1N1)pdm09, compared with seasonal strains, is its high fatality rate and its higher incidence among younger people. Data provided by the WHO on the number of deaths caused by A/(H1N1)pdm09 only include laboratory-confirmed cases. Some authors suggest that these data could underestimate the magnitude of the event, as laboratory confirmation is not obtained in all cases. It is important to bear in mind that the A/(H1N1)pdm09 virus is still circulating in the population. It is therefore essential to maintain its epidemiological and virological surveillance.

Quality of life in patients with scalp psoriasis

AIM

The aims of this study were to describe the quality of life (QoL) in patients suffering of scalp psoriasis and to assess the impact of the socio-demographic and clinical features of this condition on patients' health-related QoL, using general and specific QoL scales.

METHODS

This research is a cross-sectional study. The study involved 55 patients attending their first examination at the Dermatology Clinic of Padua University over the course of one year (April 2010-March 2011). The outcome was quality of life analyzed by means Scalpdex and SF-36 questionnaire.

RESULTS

The sample's mean Scalpdex score was 43.60±17.52, while the mean SF-36 score was 68.28±20.32. The SF-36 identified statistically significant differences between the psoriasis patients and the Italian general population in two domains, i.e. general health (P=0.0075) and emotional role (P=0.0048). The severity of patients' scalp lesions emerged as a factor associated with a reduced QoL in these patients, irrespective of the severity of their disease as a whole. Sex, age, schooling and other socio-demographic factors also characterized patients' perceived QoL.

CONCLUSION

Patients with scalp psoriasis suffered from a lower QoL relating to the highly visible site of their psoriatic lesions. Specific supportive measures should be dedicated to these patients by health care workers.

Diabetes outcomes within integrated healthcare management programs

AIM

The aim of this observational study was to assess mortality of patients with type 2 diabetes by type of healthcare delivery system, i.e. through specialist centers or generalist doctors, or integrated care.

METHODS

The study was conducted at the "Vicentino Ovest" Local Health District in the Veneto Region (north-eastern Italy) from January 1, 2008 to December 31, 2010. Patients with diabetes (≥ 20 years old) were identified using different public health databases. They were grouped as: patients followed up by specialists at diabetes clinics (DS); patients seen only by their own general practitioner (GP); and patients receiving integrated care (DS-GP). Cox's regression analysis was used to estimate adjusted hazard ratios for available potential predictors of death by level of care.

RESULTS

The crude mortality rate was highest in the GP group (26.1 per 1000 person-years), the difference being minimal when compared with the DS group (21.7 per 1000 person-years) and more marked when compared with the DS-GP group (8.8 per 1000 person-years). Patients followed up by their GPs had a 2.7 adjusted RR for mortality by comparison with the DS-GP group.

CONCLUSIONS

The findings of the present study could demonstrate that it is safe and cost-effective, after a first specialist assessment at a diabetes service, for low-risk diabetic patients to be managed by family physicians as part of a coordinated care approach, based on the specialist's clinical recommendations; GPs can subsequently refer patients to a specialist whenever warranted by their clinical condition.

Older adults in Emergency Department: management by clinical severity at triage

BACKGROUND

The elderly are involved in an ever-increasing proportion of Emergency Department (ED) visits, consuming a large share of the available resources. The aim of this study was to assess elderly individuals' demand for ED hospital care, in terms of the management process and outcomes by level of urgency at triage.

METHODS

The design was a retrospective cohort study. Details on ED attendance were drawn from the 2010 dataset of the Local Health Agency n°18 (n=18,648) in the Veneto Region, North-East Italy and the participants were resident seniors seen at the ED aged 65 or more.

RESULTS

At triage on arrival, their priority was most often (in 38.63% of cases) considered non-urgent (white triage tag - Wt). In the majority of these cases, the elderly patients were self-referred, although about 1 in 5 of them had been referred by their General Practitioners. The consumption of resources for specialist visit and routine X-rays is higher for non-urgent patients. Injuries, requests for specialist examinations and musculoskeletal disorders account for a large proportion of the reasons why elderly people classified as Wt at triage had gone to the ED.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings show that older patients have high rates of non-urgent ED attendance, especially for minor traumatic events or requests to see a specialist. This picture emphasizes the need to develop new organizational models for delivering care to meet the most common health care needs of this special frail population.

Health consequences of road accidents: insights from local health authority registries

BACKGROUND

Road accidents are a major public health problem that affect all age groups but their impact is most striking among the young. The aim of this study is to quantify the burden of road traffic injuries, their mortality and direct in-patient economic costs and to identify the age classes at highest risk for severe road traffic injuries, through analysis of data collected by information systems of an Italian Local Health Authority.

METHODS

The study was conducted in a Local Health Authority of Veneto Region. Injured people were selected from Emergency Department (2006-2010). Data were linked to the Hospital Information System for hospital admissions and to the Mortality Registry to check 30-day mortality. The direct costs associated to hospitalizations were estimated through Diagnosis Related Group reimbursement rates. Multivariate analysis was performed using hospitalization and mortality as the dependent variables and gender, age, day of week when accident occurred as the independent variables. Traffic injury, hospitalization and mortality incidence rates were calculated by gender and age per 100,000 residents per year.

RESULTS

The road traffic injuries were 9,192, decreasing from 2,112 in 2006 to 1,980 in 2010. Among injured persons 55.3% were male (68.1% among 15-19 age class); 41.7% young people aged 15-34 years (43.9% among male, 39.0% among female). Total hospitalisation rate was 5.9%. Overall mortality rate was 0.3% (0.9% among aged 65 or older). The cost of hospital admission was euro 2,742,505 (hospitalization mean cost euro 5,097). Risk of hospitalization and death was higher in male, in elderly and during week end. Young people aged 15-19 had the highest incidence of visits (2,258.4 per 100,000) and high hospitalisation weekend and mortality rates (respectively 101.5 and 8.5).

CONCLUSIONS

Analysis at local level, using current data sources, permits to estimate the burden of injuries caused by road-traffic, to describe the characteristics of injured persons and finally to estimate costs of care. All this information could be used to make the population aware of its own risk for road accidents. Linkage of these data with police and transport data is required to focus prevention on higher risk groups and to adopt effective local road safety strategies.

[Which prevention programs effectively reduce the risk of alcohol consumption in young people?]

Alcohol consumption among young people is a major public health problem and the Italian National Health Institute considers it the leading cause of death for people under 24 years old, mainly due to road accidents. This study summarizes the evidence emerging from three Cochrane Collaboration reviews, aiming to orient the choice of alcohol prevention programs for young people. The first review considered schemes implemented at school to prevent alcohol consumption under 18 years of age; the second concerned studies on programs to reduce alcohol abuse by means of social norms; the third examined 56 trials on schemes for preventing young people from drinking. In the first review, 6 of 11 alcohol prevention schemes showed some signs of efficacy, and 14 of 39 schemes to combat substance abuse generally induced a significantly alcohol use reduction. The second review included three specific programs for alcohol-related problems with a > 17-month follow-up and they were effective. In the third review, 15 of 39 schemes proved effective in the short-term, 9 of 12 with medium follow-up were no longer effective (and alcohol consumption even increased in 2), while 3 long-term trials and 2 of 3 community schemes proved effective. These Cochrane reviews did not assess all strategies for preventing alcohol abuse in the young which have been implemented in different countries, because many interventions has been conducted spontaneously without any evaluation of their efficacy. An international registry on substance abuse prevention measures is warranted, with shared criteria for assessing their effects, to orient public health policies.

Alcohol consumption and cardiovascular risk factors in older lifelong wine drinkers: the Italian Longitudinal Study on Aging

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

A protective effect of moderate alcohol consumption on the cardiovascular system has consistently been reported, but limited evidence has been produced on the association of alcohol with metabolic factors in the elderly. The aim of this study was to investigate the association between different levels of current alcohol consumption and cardiovascular risk factors in a representative sample of elderly Italian men, mainly wine drinkers.

METHODS AND RESULTS

This is a cross-sectional multi-centre study on a population-based sample of Italian men aged 65-84 years, drawn from the Italian Longitudinal Study on Aging (ILSA) cohort. The analyses included 1896 men. Almost all the drinkers (98%) drank wine as a lifelong habit. Adjusted ORs for risk levels for cardiovascular factors (BMI, waist circumference, fibrinogen, α2 protein, white blood cells, HDL cholesterol, Apo A-I, total cholesterol, Apo B-I, triglycerides, LDL, glycated hemoglobin, insulin, fasting plasma glucose, HOMA IR, systolic and diastolic blood pressure) were estimated, comparing drinkers with teetotalers using multivariate logistic regression models. We found alcohol consumption in older age associated with healthier hematological values of fibrinogen, HDL cholesterol, Apo A-I lipoprotein and insulin, but it was also associated with a worse hematological picture of total, LDL cholesterol levels, and systolic pressure.

CONCLUSION

Our results indicated in elderly moderate wine drinkers a noticeably safe metabolic, inflammatory and glycemic profile that might balance higher blood pressure, leading to a net benefit. These findings however need to be placed in relation to the known adverse social and health effects of heavy drinking.

Does yellow fever 17D vaccine protect against melanoma?

BCG vaccine, vaccinia vaccine and certain pathogens that were shown in previous studies to protect against melanoma have antigenic determinants homologous in their amino acids sequence with the melanoma antigen HERV-K-MEL, encoded by a human endogenous retrovirus K (HERV-K), which is expressed in about 95% of malignant melanocytes. Yellow fever vaccine (YFV) likewise contains an antigenic determinant with a close homology to HERV-K-MEL and might therefore also confer protection against melanoma. To investigate this possibility we carried out a cohort study (28,306 subjects) and a nested case-control study (37 melamona cases and 151 tumors not expressing HERV-K-MEL) in Veneto region (North-Eastern Italy). The standardized incidence ratio was 1.33 (95% confidence interval, 0.84-2.11), 1.59 (0.97-2.59) and 0.59 (0.19-1.84), while the age- gender-adjusted odds ratios were 1.00, 0.96 (0.43-2.14) and 0.26 (0.07-0.96), at 0-4, 5-9, and > or =10 years elapsed from YFV administration, respectively. The risk of melanoma may therefore be lowered 10 years after vaccination with yellow fever vaccine.

Predictors of low bone mineral density in the elderly: the role of dietary intake, nutritional status and sarcopenia

OBJECTIVES

The aims of this study were to investigate the relationship between sarcopenia, dietary intake, nutritional indices and hip bone mineral density (BMD) in the elderly, and to estimate the risk of low BMD due to specific independent predictor thresholds.

SUBJECTS AND METHODS

Body mass index (BMI), serum albumin, energy and protein intake were studied in 352 elderly outpatients (216 women aged 73.5+/-5.3 years and 136 men aged 73.9+/-5.6 years). BMD at different hip sites and appendicular skeletal muscle mass (ASMM) were assessed by dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry.

RESULTS

The prevalence of osteoporosis was 13% in men and 45% in women, while the prevalence of sarcopenia (50%) and hypoalbuminemia (5%) were similar in both genders. BMI, albumin and ASMM were significantly associated with BMD in both genders: so was protein intake, but only in men. By multiple regression analysis, the variables that retained their independent explanatory role on total hip BMD, were BMI and protein intake in men, and BMI and albumin in women. By logistic regression analysis, men risked having a low BMD with a BMI <22 (OR=12) and a protein intake <65.7 g/day (OR=3.7). Women carried some risk already in the BMI 25-30 class (OR=5), and a much greater risk in the BMI <22 class (OR=26). Albumin <40 g/l also emerged as an independent risk factor (OR=2.6).

CONCLUSIONS

BMI in both genders, albumin in women and protein intake in men have an independent effect on BMD. BMI values <22 are normal for younger adults but carry a higher risk of osteoporosis in the elderly, particularly in women. Age-related sarcopenia does not seem to be involved in bone mass loss.

Elevated lung cancer risk shortly after smoking cessation: is it due to a reduction of endotoxin exposure?

Several reports indicate that the risk of lung cancer increases slightly for a short period of time after cessation of smoking while the risk of adverse cardiovascular events drops immediately. Recent studies on subjects occupationally exposed to organic dust-containing endotoxin have revealed lower than expected rates of lung cancer. There is experimental evidence that stimulation of the immune system by endotoxin has a protective effect against cancer. Tobacco smoke has been shown to contain high levels of endotoxin. We therefore postulate that cessation of smoking eliminates the protective effect of endotoxin. Any benefit conferred by endotoxin does not, however, justify smoking. As the inverse relationship between exposure to endotoxin and the risk of lung cancer is a strong one, endotoxin-like substances could form the basis of vaccination strategies.

Remarks on Parallel Analysis

We investigate parallel analysis (PA), a selection rule for the number-of-factors problem, from the point of view of permutation assessment. The idea of applying permutation test ideas to PA leads to a quasi-inferential, non-parametric version of PA which accounts not only for finite-sample bias but sampling variability as well. We give evidence, however, that quasi-inferential PA based on normal random variates (as opposed to data permutations) is surprisingly independent of distributional assumptions, and enjoys therefore certain non- parametric properties as well. This is a justification for providing tables for quasi-inferential PA. Based on permutation theory, we compare PA of principal components with PA of principal factor analysis and show that PA of principal factors may tend to select too many factors. We also apply parallel analysis to so-called resistant correlations and give evidence that this yields a slightly more conservative factor selection method. Finally, we apply PA to loadings and show how this provides benchmark values for loadings which are sensitive to the number of variables, number of subjects, and order of factors. These values therefore improve on conventional fixed thresholds such as 0.5 or 0.8 which are used irrespective of the size of the data.