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Esquivel‐Muelbert A, Baker TR, Dexter KG, Lewis SL, Brienen RJW, Feldpausch TR, Lloyd J, Monteagudo‐Mendoza A, Arroyo L, Álvarez-Dávila E, Higuchi N, Marimon BS, Marimon-Junior BH, Silveira M, Vilanova E, Gloor E, Malhi Y, Chave J, Barlow J, Bonal D, Davila Cardozo N, Erwin T, Fauset S, Hérault B, Laurance S, Poorter L, Qie L, Stahl C, Sullivan MJP, ter Steege H, Vos VA, Zuidema PA, Almeida E, Almeida de Oliveira E, Andrade A, Vieira SA, Aragão L, Araujo‐Murakami A, Arets E, Aymard C GA, Baraloto C, Camargo PB, Barroso JG, Bongers F, Boot R, Camargo JL, Castro W, Chama Moscoso V, Comiskey J, Cornejo Valverde F, Lola da Costa AC, del Aguila Pasquel J, Di Fiore A, Fernanda Duque L, Elias F, Engel J, Flores Llampazo G, Galbraith D, Herrera Fernández R, Honorio Coronado E, Hubau W, Jimenez‐Rojas E, Lima AJN, Umetsu RK, Laurance W, Lopez‐Gonzalez G, Lovejoy T, Aurelio Melo Cruz O, Morandi PS, Neill D, Núñez Vargas P, Pallqui Camacho NC, Parada Gutierrez A, Pardo G, Peacock J, Peña‐Claros M, Peñuela‐Mora MC, Petronelli P, Pickavance GC, Pitman N, Prieto A, Quesada C, Ramírez‐Angulo H, Réjou‐Méchain M, Restrepo Correa Z, Roopsind A, Rudas A, Salomão R, Silva N, Silva Espejo J, Singh J, Stropp J, Terborgh J, Thomas R, Toledo M, Torres‐Lezama A, Valenzuela Gamarra L, van de Meer PJ, van der Heijden G, van der Hout P, Vasquez Martinez R, Vela C, Vieira ICG, Phillips OL. Compositional response of Amazon forests to climate change. Glob Chang Biol 2019; 25:39-56. [PMID: 30406962 PMCID: PMC6334637 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.14413] [Citation(s) in RCA: 123] [Impact Index Per Article: 24.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/19/2018] [Revised: 06/27/2018] [Accepted: 07/04/2018] [Indexed: 05/05/2023]
Abstract
Most of the planet's diversity is concentrated in the tropics, which includes many regions undergoing rapid climate change. Yet, while climate-induced biodiversity changes are widely documented elsewhere, few studies have addressed this issue for lowland tropical ecosystems. Here we investigate whether the floristic and functional composition of intact lowland Amazonian forests have been changing by evaluating records from 106 long-term inventory plots spanning 30 years. We analyse three traits that have been hypothesized to respond to different environmental drivers (increase in moisture stress and atmospheric CO2 concentrations): maximum tree size, biogeographic water-deficit affiliation and wood density. Tree communities have become increasingly dominated by large-statured taxa, but to date there has been no detectable change in mean wood density or water deficit affiliation at the community level, despite most forest plots having experienced an intensification of the dry season. However, among newly recruited trees, dry-affiliated genera have become more abundant, while the mortality of wet-affiliated genera has increased in those plots where the dry season has intensified most. Thus, a slow shift to a more dry-affiliated Amazonia is underway, with changes in compositional dynamics (recruits and mortality) consistent with climate-change drivers, but yet to significantly impact whole-community composition. The Amazon observational record suggests that the increase in atmospheric CO2 is driving a shift within tree communities to large-statured species and that climate changes to date will impact forest composition, but long generation times of tropical trees mean that biodiversity change is lagging behind climate change.
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Johnson MO, Galbraith D, Gloor M, De Deurwaerder H, Guimberteau M, Rammig A, Thonicke K, Verbeeck H, von Randow C, Monteagudo A, Phillips OL, Brienen RJW, Feldpausch TR, Lopez Gonzalez G, Fauset S, Quesada CA, Christoffersen B, Ciais P, Sampaio G, Kruijt B, Meir P, Moorcroft P, Zhang K, Alvarez‐Davila E, Alves de Oliveira A, Amaral I, Andrade A, Aragao LEOC, Araujo‐Murakami A, Arets EJMM, Arroyo L, Aymard GA, Baraloto C, Barroso J, Bonal D, Boot R, Camargo J, Chave J, Cogollo A, Cornejo Valverde F, Lola da Costa AC, Di Fiore A, Ferreira L, Higuchi N, Honorio EN, Killeen TJ, Laurance SG, Laurance WF, Licona J, Lovejoy T, Malhi Y, Marimon B, Marimon BH, Matos DCL, Mendoza C, Neill DA, Pardo G, Peña‐Claros M, Pitman NCA, Poorter L, Prieto A, Ramirez‐Angulo H, Roopsind A, Rudas A, Salomao RP, Silveira M, Stropp J, ter Steege H, Terborgh J, Thomas R, Toledo M, Torres‐Lezama A, van der Heijden GMF, Vasquez R, Guimarães Vieira IC, Vilanova E, Vos VA, Baker TR. Variation in stem mortality rates determines patterns of above-ground biomass in Amazonian forests: implications for dynamic global vegetation models. Glob Chang Biol 2016; 22:3996-4013. [PMID: 27082541 PMCID: PMC6849555 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13315] [Citation(s) in RCA: 37] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/03/2015] [Revised: 02/05/2016] [Accepted: 03/01/2016] [Indexed: 05/05/2023]
Abstract
Understanding the processes that determine above-ground biomass (AGB) in Amazonian forests is important for predicting the sensitivity of these ecosystems to environmental change and for designing and evaluating dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs). AGB is determined by inputs from woody productivity [woody net primary productivity (NPP)] and the rate at which carbon is lost through tree mortality. Here, we test whether two direct metrics of tree mortality (the absolute rate of woody biomass loss and the rate of stem mortality) and/or woody NPP, control variation in AGB among 167 plots in intact forest across Amazonia. We then compare these relationships and the observed variation in AGB and woody NPP with the predictions of four DGVMs. The observations show that stem mortality rates, rather than absolute rates of woody biomass loss, are the most important predictor of AGB, which is consistent with the importance of stand size structure for determining spatial variation in AGB. The relationship between stem mortality rates and AGB varies among different regions of Amazonia, indicating that variation in wood density and height/diameter relationships also influences AGB. In contrast to previous findings, we find that woody NPP is not correlated with stem mortality rates and is weakly positively correlated with AGB. Across the four models, basin-wide average AGB is similar to the mean of the observations. However, the models consistently overestimate woody NPP and poorly represent the spatial patterns of both AGB and woody NPP estimated using plot data. In marked contrast to the observations, DGVMs typically show strong positive relationships between woody NPP and AGB. Resolving these differences will require incorporating forest size structure, mechanistic models of stem mortality and variation in functional composition in DGVMs.
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Affiliation(s)
| | | | - Manuel Gloor
- School of GeographyUniversity of LeedsLeedsLS6 2QTUK
| | - Hannes De Deurwaerder
- CAVElab Computational & Applied Vegetation EcologyFaculty of Bioscience EngineeringGhent UniversityCoupure Links 653B‐9000GentBelgium
| | - Matthieu Guimberteau
- Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, LSCE/IPSL, CEA‐CNRS‐UVSQUniversité Paris‐SaclayF‐91191Gif‐sur‐YvetteFrance
- UMR 7619 METISIPSL, Sorbonne Universités, UPMC, CNRS, EPHE75252ParisFrance
| | - Anja Rammig
- TUM School of Life Sciences WeihenstephanTechnical University MunichHans‐Carl‐von‐Carlowitz‐Platz 285354FreisingGermany
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)Telegrafenberg A62PO Box 60 12 03D‐14412PotsdamGermany
| | - Kirsten Thonicke
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)Telegrafenberg A62PO Box 60 12 03D‐14412PotsdamGermany
| | - Hans Verbeeck
- CAVElab Computational & Applied Vegetation EcologyFaculty of Bioscience EngineeringGhent UniversityCoupure Links 653B‐9000GentBelgium
| | - Celso von Randow
- INPEAv. Dos Astronautas, 1.758, Jd. GranjaCEP: 12227‐010Sao Jose dos CamposSPBrazil
| | - Abel Monteagudo
- Jardín Botánico de MissouriProlongacion Bolognesi Mz.e, Lote 6Oxapampa, PascoPeru
| | | | | | - Ted R. Feldpausch
- GeographyCollege of Life and Environmental SciencesUniversity of ExeterRennes DriveExeterEX4 4RJUK
| | | | - Sophie Fauset
- School of GeographyUniversity of LeedsLeedsLS6 2QTUK
| | | | - Bradley Christoffersen
- School of GeosciencesUniversity of EdinburghEdinburghEH9 3FFUK
- Earth and Environmental Sciences DivisionLos Alamos National LaboratoryPO Box 1663Los AlamosNM 87545USA
| | - Philippe Ciais
- Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, LSCE/IPSL, CEA‐CNRS‐UVSQUniversité Paris‐SaclayF‐91191Gif‐sur‐YvetteFrance
| | - Gilvan Sampaio
- INPEAv. Dos Astronautas, 1.758, Jd. GranjaCEP: 12227‐010Sao Jose dos CamposSPBrazil
| | - Bart Kruijt
- ALTERRAWageningen‐URPO Box 476700 AAWageningenThe Netherlands
| | - Patrick Meir
- School of GeosciencesUniversity of EdinburghEdinburghEH9 3FFUK
- Research School of BiologyAustralian National UniversityCanberraACT0200Australia
| | - Paul Moorcroft
- Department of Organismic and Evolutionary BiologyHarvard University26 Oxford StreetCambridgeMA 02138USA
| | - Ke Zhang
- Cooperative Institute for Mesoscale Meteorological StudiesUniversity of Oklahoma National Weather Center Suite 2100120 David L. Boren BlvdNormanOK73072USA
| | | | | | - Ieda Amaral
- INPAAv. André Araújo, 2.936CEP 69067‐375Petrópolis, ManausAMBrazil
| | - Ana Andrade
- INPAAv. André Araújo, 2.936CEP 69067‐375Petrópolis, ManausAMBrazil
| | - Luiz E. O. C. Aragao
- Jardín Botánico de MissouriProlongacion Bolognesi Mz.e, Lote 6Oxapampa, PascoPeru
| | - Alejandro Araujo‐Murakami
- Museo de Historia Natural Noel Kempff MercadoUniversidad Autonoma Gabriel Rene MorenoCasilla 2489, Av. Irala 565Santa CruzBolivia
| | | | - Luzmila Arroyo
- Museo de Historia Natural Noel Kempff MercadoUniversidad Autonoma Gabriel Rene MorenoCasilla 2489, Av. Irala 565Santa CruzBolivia
| | - Gerardo A. Aymard
- UNELLEZ‐Guanare, Programa de Ciencias del Agro y el Mar, Herbario Universitario (PORT)Mesa de CavacasEstado Portuguesa3350Venezuela
| | - Christopher Baraloto
- Department of Biological SciencesInternational Center for Tropical Botany (ICTB)Florida International University112200 SW 8th Street, OE 167MiamiFL33199USA
| | - Jocely Barroso
- Universidade Federal do AcreCampus de Cruzeiro do SulRio BrancoBrazil
| | - Damien Bonal
- INRAUMR 1137 “Ecologie et Ecophysiologie Forestiere”54280ChampenouxFrance
| | - Rene Boot
- Tropenbos InternationalPO Box 2326700 AEWageningenThe Netherlands
| | - Jose Camargo
- INPAAv. André Araújo, 2.936CEP 69067‐375Petrópolis, ManausAMBrazil
| | - Jerome Chave
- Université Paul Sabatier CNRSUMR 5174 Evolution et Diversité Biologiquebâtiment 4R131062ToulouseFrance
| | - Alvaro Cogollo
- Jardín Botánico de Medellín Joaquín Antonio Uribe Calle 73 # 51 D 14 MedellínCartagenaColombia
| | | | | | - Anthony Di Fiore
- Department of AnthropologyUniversity of Texas at AustinSAC Room 5.1502201 Speedway Stop C3200AustinTX78712USA
| | - Leandro Ferreira
- Museu Paraense Emilio GoeldiAv. Magalhães Barata, 376 ‐ São BrazCEP: 66040‐170BelémPABrazil
| | - Niro Higuchi
- INPAAv. André Araújo, 2.936CEP 69067‐375Petrópolis, ManausAMBrazil
| | - Euridice N. Honorio
- Instituto de Investigaciones de la Amazonía PeruanaAv. José Quiñones km 2.5IquitosPerú
| | | | - Susan G. Laurance
- Centre for Tropical Environmental and Sustainability Science (TESS) and College of Marine and Environmental SciencesJames Cook UniversityCairnsQld4878Australia
| | - William F. Laurance
- Centre for Tropical Environmental and Sustainability Science (TESS) and College of Marine and Environmental SciencesJames Cook UniversityCairnsQld4878Australia
| | - Juan Licona
- Instituto Boliviano de Investigación ForestalC.P. 6201Santa Cruz de la SierraBolivia
| | - Thomas Lovejoy
- Environmental Science and Policy Department and the Department of Public and International Affairs at George Mason University (GMU)3351 Fairfax DriveArlingtonWashingtonDCVA 22201USA
| | - Yadvinder Malhi
- Environmental Change InstituteSchool of Geography and the EnvironmentUniversity of OxfordSouth Parks RoadOxfordOX1 3QYUK
| | - Bia Marimon
- Universidade do Estado de Mato GrossoCampus de Nova XavantinaCaixa Postal 08CEP 78.690‐000Nova XavantinaMTBrazil
| | - Ben Hur Marimon
- Universidade do Estado de Mato GrossoCampus de Nova XavantinaCaixa Postal 08CEP 78.690‐000Nova XavantinaMTBrazil
| | - Darley C. L. Matos
- Museu Paraense Emilio GoeldiAv. Magalhães Barata, 376 ‐ São BrazCEP: 66040‐170BelémPABrazil
| | - Casimiro Mendoza
- Escuela de Ciencias Forestales (ESFOR)Av. Final Atahuallpa s/nCasilla 447CochabambaBolivia
| | - David A. Neill
- Facultad de Ingeniería AmbientalUniversidad Estatal AmazónicaPaso lateral km 2 1/2 via NapoPuyoPastazaEcuador
| | - Guido Pardo
- Universidad Autonoma del BeniCampus UniversitarioAv. Ejército Nacional, finalRiberaltaBeniBolivia
| | - Marielos Peña‐Claros
- Instituto Boliviano de Investigación ForestalC.P. 6201Santa Cruz de la SierraBolivia
- Forest Ecology and Forest Management GroupWageningen UniversityPO Box 47Wageningen6700 AAThe Netherlands
| | - Nigel C. A. Pitman
- Center for Tropical ConservationDuke UniversityBox 90381DurhamNC27708USA
| | - Lourens Poorter
- Forest Ecology and Forest Management GroupWageningen UniversityPO Box 47Wageningen6700 AAThe Netherlands
| | - Adriana Prieto
- Doctorado Instituto de Ciencias NaturalesUniversidad Nacional de ColombiaBogotáColombia
| | - Hirma Ramirez‐Angulo
- Instituto de Investigaciones para el Desarrollo ForestalUniversidad de Los AndesAvenida Principal Chorros de MillaCampus Universitario ForestalEdificio PrincipalMéridaVenezuela
| | - Anand Roopsind
- Iwokrama International Centre for Rainforest Conservation and Development77 High Street KingstonGeorgetownGuyana
| | - Agustin Rudas
- Doctorado Instituto de Ciencias NaturalesUniversidad Nacional de ColombiaBogotáColombia
| | - Rafael P. Salomao
- Museu Paraense Emilio GoeldiAv. Magalhães Barata, 376 ‐ São BrazCEP: 66040‐170BelémPABrazil
| | - Marcos Silveira
- Museu UniversitárioUniversidade Federal do AcreRio BrancoAC69910‐900Brazil
| | - Juliana Stropp
- Institute of Biological and Health SciencesFederal University of AlagoasAv. Lourival Melo Mota s/nTabuleiro do Martins, MaceióAL 57072‐900Brazil
| | - Hans ter Steege
- Naturalis Biodiversity CenterPO Box 95172300 RALeidenThe Netherlands
| | - John Terborgh
- Center for Tropical ConservationDuke UniversityBox 90381DurhamNC27708USA
| | - Raquel Thomas
- Iwokrama International Centre for Rainforest Conservation and Development77 High Street KingstonGeorgetownGuyana
| | - Marisol Toledo
- Instituto Boliviano de Investigación ForestalC.P. 6201Santa Cruz de la SierraBolivia
| | - Armando Torres‐Lezama
- Instituto de Investigaciones para el Desarrollo ForestalUniversidad de Los AndesAvenida Principal Chorros de MillaCampus Universitario ForestalEdificio PrincipalMéridaVenezuela
| | | | - Rodolfo Vasquez
- GeographyCollege of Life and Environmental SciencesUniversity of ExeterRennes DriveExeterEX4 4RJUK
| | | | - Emilio Vilanova
- Instituto de Investigaciones para el Desarrollo ForestalUniversidad de Los AndesAvenida Principal Chorros de MillaCampus Universitario ForestalEdificio PrincipalMéridaVenezuela
| | - Vincent A. Vos
- Centro de Investigación y Promoción del Campesinado, regional Norte AmazónicoC/Nicanor Gonzalo Salvatierra N° 362Casilla 16RiberaltaBolivia
- Universidad Autónoma del BeniAvenida 6 de Agosto N° 64RiberaltaBolivia
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