A multi-population approach supports common patterns in marine growth and maturation decision in Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar L.) from southern Europe

This study provides a regional picture of long-term changes in Atlantic salmon growth at the southern edge of their distribution, using a multi-population approach spanning 49 years and five populations. We provide empirical evidence of salmon life history being influenced by a combination of common signals in the marine environment and population-specific signals. We identified an abrupt decline in growth from 1976 and a more recent decline after 2005. As these declines have also been recorded in northern European populations, our study significantly expands a pattern of declining marine growth to include southern European populations, thereby revealing a large-scale synchrony in marine growth patterns for almost five decades. Growth increments during their sea sojourn were characterized by distinct temporal dynamics. At a coarse temporal resolution, growth during the first winter at sea seemed to gradually improve over the study period. However, the analysis of finer seasonal growth patterns revealed ecological bottlenecks of salmon life histories at sea in time and space. Our study reinforces existing evidence of an impact of early marine growth on maturation decision, with small-sized individuals at the end of the first summer at sea being more likely to delay maturation. However, each population was characterized by a specific probabilistic maturation reaction norm, and a local component of growth at sea in which some populations have better growth in some years might further amplify differences in maturation rate. Differences between populations were smaller than those between sexes, suggesting that the sex-specific growth threshold for maturation is a well-conserved evolutionary phenomenon in salmon. Finally, our results illustrate that although most of the gain in length occurs during the first summer at sea, the temporal variability in body length at return is buffered against the decrease in post-smolt growth conditions. The intricate combination of growth over successive seasons, and its interplay with the maturation decision, could be regulating body length by maintaining diversity in early growth trajectories, life histories, and the composition of salmon populations.

Fisheries-dependent and -independent data used to model the distribution of diadromous fish at-sea

A database of 168 904 hauls covering the period from 1965 to 2019, from 46 surveys containing both fisheries-dependent (fishing vessels) and -independent data (scientific surveys) were collated from across the eastern Atlantic (Greater North Sea, Celtic Sea, Bay of Biscay and Iberian coast) and Metropolitan French Mediterranean waters. Data on diadromous fish (the European sturgeon (Acipenser sturio), allis shad (Alosa alosa), twait shad (Alosa fallax), Mediterranean twaite shad (Alosa agone), European eel (Anguilla anguilla), thinlip mullet (Chelon ramada), river lamprey (Lampetra fluviatilis), sea lamprey (Petromyzon marinus), smelt (Osmerus eperlanus), European flounder (Platichthys flesus), Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) and the sea trout (Salmo trutta)) presence-absence was extracted and cleaned. The gear type and gear category which caught these species, their spatial location, and the date of capture (year and month), were also cleaned and standardised. Very little is known about diadromous fish at-sea and modelling data-poor and poorly detectable species such as diadromous fish is challenging for species conservation. Furthermore, databases which contain both scientific surveys and fisheries-dependent data on data-poor species at the temporal and geographical scale of this database are uncommon. This data could therefore be used to improve knowledge of diadromous fish spatial and temporal trends, and modelling techniques for data-poor species.

Predicting how environmental conditions and smolt body length when entering the marine environment impact individual Atlantic salmon Salmo salar adult return rates

Populations of Atlantic salmon Salmo salar have experienced precipitous declines in abundance since the 1970s. This decline has been associated with reduced numbers of adult salmon returning to fresh water from their marine migration, i.e., their marine return rates (MRR). Thus, understanding the factors that affect MRR is of crucial conservation importance. The authors used a state-space model with a 13-year time series of individually tagged salmon mark-recapture histories on the River Frome, southern England, to test the effect of smolt body length on their MRR. In addition to smolt length, the model tested for the influence of environmental covariates that were representative of the conditions experienced by the smolts in the early stages of their seaward migration, i.e., from the lower river to the estuary exit. The model indicated that, even when accounting for environmental covariates, smolt body length was an important predictor of MRR. Although larger smolts have a higher probability of returning to their natal river as adults than smaller smolts, and one-sea-winter salmon have a survival rate twice as high as multi-sea-winter salmon, the actual biological mechanisms underpinning this phenomenon remain uncertain. These results have important applications for salmon conservation, as efforts to bolster salmon populations in the freshwater environment should consider methods to improve smolt quality (i.e., body size) as well as smolt quantity.

EcoDiet: A hierarchical Bayesian model to combine stomach, biotracer, and literature data into diet matrix estimation

Although quantifying trophic interactions is a critical path to understanding and forecasting ecosystem functioning, fitting trophic models to field data remains challenging. It requires flexible statistical tools to combine different sources of information from the literature and fieldwork samples. We present EcoDiet, a hierarchical Bayesian modeling framework to simultaneously estimate food-web topology and diet composition of all consumers in the food web, by combining (1) a priori knowledge from the literature on both food-web topology and diet proportions; (2) stomach content analyses, with frequencies of prey occurrence used as the primary source of data to update the prior knowledge on the topological food-web structure; (3) and biotracers data through a mixing model (MM). Inferences are derived in a Bayesian probabilistic rationale that provides a formal way to incorporate prior information and quantifies uncertainty around both the topological structure of the food web and the dietary proportions. EcoDiet was implemented as an open-source R package, providing a user-friendly interface to execute the model, as well as examples and guidelines to familiarize with its use. We used simulated data to demonstrate the benefits of EcoDiet and how the framework can improve inferences on diet matrix by comparison with classical network MM. We applied EcoDiet to the Celtic Sea ecosystem, and showed how combining multiple data types within an integrated approach provides a more robust and holistic picture of the food-web topology and diet matrices than the literature or classical MM approach alone. EcoDiet has the potential to become a reference method for building diet matrices as a preliminary step of ecosystem modeling and to improve our understanding of prey-predator interactions.

Shedding light on the river and sea lamprey in western European marine waters

Lampreys are ancestral jawless vertebrates with particularly complex life histories. Population declines resulting from increased anthropogenic pressure have been observed. For semelparous diadromous lampreys, the marine phase remains largely a black box, making targeted management and conservation measures difficult to implement. Here, we collated a database of 168904 hauls from both fisheries-dependent and fisheries-independent surveys between 1965 and 2019. Lampreys were observed in only 254 hauls (<1% lamprey presence); 421 sea lamprey Petromyzon marinus and 300 European river lamprey Lampetra fluviatilis were identified. Sizes ranged from 13 to 92 cm and from 14 to 42 cm, respectively. The majority of lampreys (61%) were caught by mobile demersal gear types. The highest presence of both species was recorded within the Greater North Sea, followed by the Bay of Biscay. L. fluviatilis was observed closer to the coast than P. marinus. For both lampreys, there was an increase in size with distance from the coast. P. marinus were predominantly <60 cm and observed from August to February, indicating that these were sexually immature juveniles migrating out to sea. For L. fluviatilis, the majority were thought to be adults (>20 cm) and occurred in autumn, indicating inshore migration. Our observations provide insight into the ecology of lampreys at sea and highlight study locations and gear types, which may be more pertinent for future research. Greater awareness is needed during surveys to collate catch information on lampreys and improve understanding of their ecology and phenology at sea.

Spatial synchrony in the response of a long range migratory species (Salmo salar) to climate change in the North Atlantic Ocean

A major challenge in understanding the response of populations to climate change is to separate the effects of local drivers acting independently on specific populations, from the effects of global drivers that impact multiple populations simultaneously and thereby synchronize their dynamics. We investigated the environmental drivers and the demographic mechanisms of the widespread decline in marine survival rates of Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) over the last four decades. We developed a hierarchical Bayesian life cycle model to quantify the spatial synchrony in the marine survival of 13 large groups of populations (called stock units, SU) from two continental stock groups (CSG) in North America (NA) and Southern Europe (SE) over the period 1971-2014. We found strong coherence in the temporal variation in postsmolt marine survival among the 13 SU of NA and SE. A common North Atlantic trend explains 37% of the temporal variability of the survivals for the 13 SU and declines by a factor of 1.8 over the 1971-2014 time series. Synchrony in survival trends is stronger between SU within each CSG. The common trends at the scale of NA and SE capture 60% and 42% of the total variance of temporal variations, respectively. Temporal variations of the postsmolt survival are best explained by the temporal variations of sea surface temperature (SST, negative correlation) and net primary production indices (PP, positive correlation) encountered by salmon in common domains during their marine migration. Specifically, in the Labrador Sea/Grand Banks for populations from NA, 26% and 24% of variance is captured by SST and PP, respectively and in the Norwegian Sea for populations from SE, 21% and 12% of variance is captured by SST and PP, respectively. The findings support the hypothesis of a response of salmon populations to large climate-induced changes in the North Atlantic simultaneously impacting populations from distant continental habitats.

Evidence for long-term change in length, mass and migration phenology of anadromous spawners in French Atlantic salmon Salmo salar

This study provides new data on Atlantic salmon Salmo salar life-history traits across France. Using a long-term recreational angling database (1987-2013) covering 34 rivers in three regions (genetic units), a decline in individual length, mass and a delayed adult return to French rivers was reported. Temporal similarities in trait variations between regions may be attributed to common change in environmental conditions at sea. The relative rate of change in phenotypic traits was more pronounced in early maturing fish [1 sea-winter (1SW) fish] than in late maturing fish (2SW fish). Such contrasted response within populations highlights the need to account for the diversity in life histories when exploring mechanisms of phenotypic change in S. salar. Such detailed life-history data on returning S. salar have not previously been reported from France. This study on French populations also contributes to reducing the gap in knowledge by providing further empirical evidence of a global pattern in S. salar across its distribution range. Results are consistent with the hypothesis that the observed changes in life-history traits are primarily associated with environmental changes in the North Atlantic Ocean. They also emphasize the presence of less important, but still significant contrasts between region and life history.

A hierarchical bayesian model to quantify uncertainty of stream water temperature forecasts

Providing generic and cost effective modelling approaches to reconstruct and forecast freshwater temperature using predictors as air temperature and water discharge is a prerequisite to understanding ecological processes underlying the impact of water temperature and of global warming on continental aquatic ecosystems. Using air temperature as a simple linear predictor of water temperature can lead to significant bias in forecasts as it does not disentangle seasonality and long term trends in the signal. Here, we develop an alternative approach based on hierarchical Bayesian statistical time series modelling of water temperature, air temperature and water discharge using seasonal sinusoidal periodic signals and time varying means and amplitudes. Fitting and forecasting performances of this approach are compared with that of simple linear regression between water and air temperatures using i) an emotive simulated example, ii) application to three French coastal streams with contrasting bio-geographical conditions and sizes. The time series modelling approach better fit data and does not exhibit forecasting bias in long term trends contrary to the linear regression. This new model also allows for more accurate forecasts of water temperature than linear regression together with a fair assessment of the uncertainty around forecasting. Warming of water temperature forecast by our hierarchical Bayesian model was slower and more uncertain than that expected with the classical regression approach. These new forecasts are in a form that is readily usable in further ecological analyses and will allow weighting of outcomes from different scenarios to manage climate change impacts on freshwater wildlife.

A hierarchical Bayesian model for embedding larval drift and habitat models in integrated life cycles for exploited fish

This paper proposes a hierarchical Bayesian framework for modeling the life cycle of marine exploited fish with a spatial perspective. The application was developed for a nursery-dependent fish species, the common sole (Solea solea), on the Eastern Channel population (Western Europe). The approach combined processes of different natures and various sources of observations within an integrated framework for life-cycle modeling: (1) outputs of an individual-based model for larval drift and survival that provided yearly estimates of the dispersion and mortality of eggs and larvae, from spawning grounds to settlement in several coastal nurseries; (2) a habitat suitability model, based on juvenile trawl surveys coupled with a geographic information system, to estimate juvenile densities and surface areas of suitable juvenile habitat in each nursery sector; (3) a statistical catch-at-age model for the estimation of the numbers-at-age and the fishing mortality on subadults and adults. The approach provided estimates of hidden variables and parameters of key biological significance. A simulation approach provided insight to the robustness of the approach when only weak data are available. Estimates of spawning biomass, fishing mortality, and recruitment were close to the estimations derived from stock-assessment working groups. In addition, the model quantified mortality along the life cycle, and estimated site-specific density-dependent mortalities between settled larvae and age-0 juveniles in each nursery ground. This provided a better understanding of the productivity and the specific contribution of each nursery ground toward recruitment and population renewal. Perspectives include further development of the modeling framework on the common sole and applications to other fish species to disentangle the effects of multiple interacting stress factors (e.g., estuarine and coastal nursery habitat degradation, fishing pressure) on population renewal and to develop risk analysis in the context of marine spatial planning for sustainable management of fish resources.

Effect of water temperature and density of juvenile salmonids on growth of young-of-the-year Atlantic salmon Salmo salar

A von Bertalanffy growth model for young-of the-year Atlantic salmon Salmo salar in a small French coastal stream was fitted using water temperatures and densities of juvenile salmonids (S. salar and brown trout Salmo trutta) as covariates influencing daily growth rate. The Bayesian framework was used as a template to integrate prior information from external data sets. The relative influence of the covariates on parr growth was quantified and results showed that growth of S. salar juveniles depended on both water temperatures and densities, but that most of the spatiotemporal variability of growth resulted from local spatiotemporal variations of 0+ age salmonid (S. salar and S. trutta) densities. Further analysis revealed that the fluctuations in young-of-the-year salmonid densities are likely to dominate the effects of potential future warming of water temperature due to climate change. It is concluded that factors that could affect salmonid densities might well have a greater effect on S. salar population dynamics than factors influencing water temperatures.

Estimates of the mortality and the duration of the trans-Atlantic migration of European eel Anguilla anguilla leptocephali using a particle tracking model

Using Lagrangian simulations, based on circulation models over three different hydroclimatic periods in the last 45 years in the North Atlantic Ocean, the trans-Atlantic migration of the European eel Anguilla anguilla leptocephali was simulated via the passive drift of particles released in the spawning area. Three different behaviours were modelled: drifting at fixed depth, undergoing a vertical migration or choosing the fastest currents. Simulations included mortality hypotheses to estimate a realistic mean migration duration and relative survival of A. anguilla larvae. The mean migration duration was estimated as 21 months and the mortality rate as 3.8 per year, i.e. < 0.2% of A. anguilla larvae may typically survive the trans-Atlantic migration.

Chemobehavioral changes induced by short-term exposures to prochloraz, nicosulfuron, and carbofuran in goldfish

The behavioral effects of short periods (2, 4, 6, 8 h) of static exposure to prochloraz (imidazole fungicide) and nicosulfuron (sulfonylurea herbicide) were recorded in goldfish (Carassius auratus). Observations were also made in an olfactometer to assess the effects of 8-h exposures to these two pesticides and to carbofuran (carbamate insecticide) on the behavioral responses to the flow of a solution of four L-amino acids (glycine, alanine, valine, taurine), mixed in the same relative proportions as in the urine of conspecifics. Each pesticide was tested at three sublethal concentrations (25, 50, 100 microg/L), and the behaviors recorded were related to swimming pattern, social interactions, and comfort movements. Static exposures to prochloraz affected horizontal displacements, burst swimming, grouping, and buccal movements. Static exposures to nicosulfuron affected burst swimming and grouping. In pesticide-unexposed fish (control), the flow of the amino acid solution induced attraction, decreased sheltering, and increased horizontal displacements, burst swimming, buccal movements, and antagonistic interactions. Compared to the controls, some of the behavioral responses to the solution of amino acids were significantly different after 8 h of subacute exposure to prochloraz and carbofuran. Both pesticides decreased attraction and increased sheltering. In addition, carbofuran decreased buccal movements and antagonistic interactions. Contrastingly, exposure to nicosulfuron showed no significant effect. This study further confirms the great vulnerability of fish behavior and chemocommunication processes to exposure to waterborne pesticides.