Subphenotypes of self-reported symptoms and outcomes in long COVID: a prospective cohort study with latent class analysis

OBJECTIVE

To characterise subphenotypes of self-reported symptoms and outcomes (SRSOs) in postacute sequelae of COVID-19 (PASC).

DESIGN

Prospective, observational cohort study of subjects with PASC.

SETTING

Academic tertiary centre from five clinical referral sources.

PARTICIPANTS

Adults with COVID-19 ≥20 days before enrolment and presence of any new self-reported symptoms following COVID-19.

EXPOSURES

We collected data on clinical variables and SRSOs via structured telephone interviews and performed standardised assessments with validated clinical numerical scales to capture psychological symptoms, neurocognitive functioning and cardiopulmonary function. We collected saliva and stool samples for quantification of SARS-CoV-2 RNA via quantitative PCR.

OUTCOMES MEASURES

Description of PASC SRSOs burden and duration, derivation of distinct PASC subphenotypes via latent class analysis (LCA) and relationship with viral load.

RESULTS

We analysed baseline data for 214 individuals with a study visit at a median of 197.5 days after COVID-19 diagnosis. Participants reported ever having a median of 9/16 symptoms (IQR 6-11) after acute COVID-19, with muscle-aches, dyspnoea and headache being the most common. Fatigue, cognitive impairment and dyspnoea were experienced for a longer time. Participants had a lower burden of active symptoms (median 3 (1-6)) than those ever experienced (p<0.001). Unsupervised LCA of symptoms revealed three clinically active PASC subphenotypes: a high burden constitutional symptoms (21.9%), a persistent loss/change of smell and taste (20.6%) and a minimal residual symptoms subphenotype (57.5%). Subphenotype assignments were strongly associated with self-assessments of global health, recovery and PASC impact on employment (p<0.001) as well as referral source for enrolment. Viral persistence (5.6% saliva and 1% stool samples positive) did not explain SRSOs or subphenotypes.

CONCLUSIONS

We identified three distinct PASC subphenotypes. We highlight that although most symptoms progressively resolve, specific PASC subpopulations are impacted by either high burden of constitutional symptoms or persistent olfactory/gustatory dysfunction, requiring prospective identification and targeted preventive or therapeutic interventions.

Cell-free DNA levels associate with COPD exacerbations and mortality

THE QUESTION ADDRESSED BY THE STUDY

Good biological indicators capable of predicting chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) phenotypes and clinical trajectories are lacking. Because nuclear and mitochondrial genomes are damaged and released by cigarette smoke exposure, plasma cell-free mitochondrial and nuclear DNA (cf-mtDNA and cf-nDNA) levels could potentially integrate disease physiology and clinical phenotypes in COPD. This study aimed to determine whether plasma cf-mtDNA and cf-nDNA levels are associated with COPD disease severity, exacerbations, and mortality risk.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We quantified mtDNA and nDNA copy numbers in plasma from participants enrolled in the Evaluation of COPD Longitudinally to Identify Predictive Surrogate Endpoints (ECLIPSE, n = 2,702) study and determined associations with relevant clinical parameters.

RESULTS

Of the 2,128 participants with COPD, 65% were male and the median age was 64 (interquartile range, 59-69) years. During the baseline visit, cf-mtDNA levels positively correlated with future exacerbation rates in subjects with mild/moderate and severe disease (Global Initiative for Obstructive Lung Disease [GOLD] I/II and III, respectively) or with high eosinophil count (≥ 300). cf-nDNA positively associated with an increased mortality risk (hazard ratio, 1.33 [95% confidence interval, 1.01-1.74] per each natural log of cf-nDNA copy number). Additional analysis revealed that individuals with low cf-mtDNA and high cf-nDNA abundance further increased the mortality risk (hazard ratio, 1.62 [95% confidence interval, 1.16-2.25] per each natural log of cf-nDNA copy number).

ANSWER TO THE QUESTION

Plasma cf-mtDNA and cf-nDNA, when integrated into quantitative clinical measurements, may aid in improving COPD severity and progression assessment.

Utility of rehabilitation prior to bronchoscopic lung volume reduction: post hoc analysis of the VENT trial

Background and objective

Rehabilitation programmes are a valuable treatment modality for patients with COPD to increase exercise capacity and quality of life. The utility of pulmonary rehabilitation prior to bronchoscopic lung volume reduction (BLVR) is unclear.

Methods

We performed a post hoc analysis of the Valve for Emphysema Palliation Trial (VENT) trial, the first multicentre randomised trial comparing the safety and efficacy of BLVR. Patients completed a pulmonary rehabilitation programme prior to BLVR over 6-10 weeks and maintained by daily practice, consisting of endurance training, strength training and upper/lower limb exercise. Lung function and exercise parameters (6-min walk distance (6MWD)) were assessed before and after rehabilitation and we tried to identify predictors for pulmonary rehabilitation benefit.

Results

Lung function and exercise capacity of 403 patients (mean±sd age 63.3±7.4 years, 37.5% female, mean±sd forced expiratory volume in 1 s 30.1±7.6 L) were analysed. Exercise capacity significantly improved from 331.6±98.8 m to 345.6±95.3 m (p<0.001) in 6-min walk testing (6MWT), with 40.3% showing clinically meaningful improvements. Patients also experienced less dyspnoea after 6MWT, while pulmonary function parameters did not change significantly overall. Patients with lower exercise capacity at screening (6MWD <250 m) benefited more from pulmonary rehabilitation. The indication and prerequisites for BLVR were still present in all patients after pulmonary rehabilitation.

Conclusion

The national mandatory requirements for rehabilitation prior to BLVR, which apply to all COPD patients, should be reconsidered and specified for COPD patients who really benefit.

Bronchial rheoplasty for chronic bronchitis: 2-year results from a US feasibility study with RheOx

INTRODUCTION

Chronic bronchitis (CB), a phenotype of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) characterised by persistent cough and mucus hypersecretion, is associated with poor outcomes despite guideline-based treatment. Bronchial rheoplasty (BR) with the RheOx system delivers non-thermal pulsed electric fields to the lower airway epithelium and submucosa to reduce mucus producing cells. Early phase clinical trials including 1-year follow-up have demonstrated reduction in airway goblet cell hyperplasia and improvement in CB symptoms.

METHODS

The current multicentre observational BR study enrolled 21 patients with CB at six centres in the USA, with bilateral treatment and 2-year follow-up. Entry criteria included elevated cough and sputum scores from COPD Assessment Test (CAT) and forced expiratory volume in one second<80% predicted. Safety was assessed by serious adverse event (SAE) incidence through 24 months. Clinical utility was evaluated using changes in the CAT, the St. George's Respiratory Questionnaire (SGRQ) and by comparing exacerbation rates before and following intervention.

RESULTS

No procedure-related or device-related SAEs occurred. Mean (SD) changes from baseline in CAT at 12 and 24 months were -9.0 (6.7) (p<0.0001) and -5.6 (7.1) (p<0.0047) and in SGRQ were -16.6 (13.2) (p<0.0001) and -11.8 (19.2) (p<0.0227), respectively. There was a 34% reduction in moderate and a 64% reduction in severe COPD exacerbation events compared with the year prior to treatment.

CONCLUSIONS

This study extends the findings from previous feasibility studies, demonstrating that BR can be performed safely and may significantly improve symptoms and health-related quality of life for patients with CB through 24 months.

TRAIL REGISTRATION NUMBER

NCT03631472.

Researching COVID to enhance recovery (RECOVER) pregnancy study: Rationale, objectives and design

IMPORTANCE

Pregnancy induces unique physiologic changes to the immune response and hormonal changes leading to plausible differences in the risk of developing post-acute sequelae of SARS-CoV-2 (PASC), or Long COVID. Exposure to SARS-CoV-2 during pregnancy may also have long-term ramifications for exposed offspring, and it is critical to evaluate the health outcomes of exposed children. The National Institutes of Health (NIH) Researching COVID to Enhance Recovery (RECOVER) Multi-site Observational Study of PASC aims to evaluate the long-term sequelae of SARS-CoV-2 infection in various populations. RECOVER-Pregnancy was designed specifically to address long-term outcomes in maternal-child dyads.

METHODS

RECOVER-Pregnancy cohort is a combined prospective and retrospective cohort that proposes to enroll 2,300 individuals with a pregnancy during the COVID-19 pandemic and their offspring exposed and unexposed in utero, including single and multiple gestations. Enrollment will occur both in person at 27 sites through the Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institutes of Health Maternal-Fetal Medicine Units Network and remotely through national recruitment by the study team at the University of California San Francisco (UCSF). Adults with and without SARS-CoV-2 infection during pregnancy are eligible for enrollment in the pregnancy cohort and will follow the protocol for RECOVER-Adult including validated screening tools, laboratory analyses and symptom questionnaires followed by more in-depth phenotyping of PASC on a subset of the overall cohort. Offspring exposed and unexposed in utero to SARS-CoV-2 maternal infection will undergo screening tests for neurodevelopment and other health outcomes at 12, 18, 24, 36 and 48 months of age. Blood specimens will be collected at 24 months of age for SARS-CoV-2 antibody testing, storage and anticipated later analyses proposed by RECOVER and other investigators.

DISCUSSION

RECOVER-Pregnancy will address whether having SARS-CoV-2 during pregnancy modifies the risk factors, prevalence, and phenotype of PASC. The pregnancy cohort will also establish whether there are increased risks of adverse long-term outcomes among children exposed in utero.

CLINICAL TRIALS.GOV IDENTIFIER

Clinical Trial Registration: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT05172011.

Lifestyle Intervention and Excess Weight in Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD): INSIGHT COPD Randomized Clinical Trial

Rationale: Being overweight or obese is common among patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), but whether interventions targeted at weight loss improve functional impairments is unknown. Objectives: INSIGHT (Intervention Study in Overweight Patients with COPD) tested whether a pragmatic low-intensity lifestyle intervention would lead to better physical functional status among overweight or obese participants with COPD. Methods: The trial was a 12-month, multicenter, patient-level pragmatic clinical trial. Participants were recruited from April 2017 to August 2019 from 38 sites across the United States and randomized to receive usual care or usual care plus lifestyle intervention. The intervention was a self-directed video program delivering the Diabetes Prevention Program's Group Lifestyle Balance curriculum. Results: The primary outcome was 6-minute-walk test distance at 12 months. Priority secondary outcomes were postwalk modified Borg dyspnea at 12 months and weight at 12 months. Participants (N = 684; mean age, 67.0 ± 8.0 yr [standard deviation]; 41.2% female) on average were obese (body mass index, 33.0 ± 4.6 kg/m2) with moderate COPD (forced expiratory volume in 1 second % predicted, 58.1 ± 15.7%). At 12 months, participants randomized to the intervention arm walked farther (adjusted difference, 42.3 ft [95% confidence interval (CI), 7.9-76.7 ft]; P = 0.02), had less dyspnea at the end of the 6-minute-walk test (adjusted difference, -0.36 [95% CI, -0.63 to -0.09]; P = 0.008), and had greater weight loss (adjusted difference, -1.34 kg [95% CI, -2.33 to -0.34 kg]; P = 0.008) than control participants. The intervention did not improve the odds of achieving clinically meaningful thresholds of walk distance (98.4 ft) or dyspnea (1 unit) but did achieve meaningful thresholds of weight loss (3% and 5%). Conclusions: Among participants with COPD who were overweight or obese, a self-guided low-intensity video-based lifestyle intervention led to modest weight loss but did not lead to clinically important improvements in physical functional status and dyspnea. Clinical trial registered with www.clinicaltrials.gov (NCT02634268).

Returning incidentally discovered Hepatitis C RNA-seq results to COPDGene study participants

The consequences of returning infectious pathogen test results identified incidentally in research studies have not been well-studied. Concerns include identification of an important health issue for individuals, accuracy of research test results, public health impact, potential emotional distress for participants, and need for IRB permissions. Blood RNA-sequencing analysis for non-human RNA in 3984 participants from the COPDGene study identified 228 participants with evidence suggestive for hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection. We hypothesized that incidentally discovered HCV results could be effectively returned to COPDGene participants with attention to the identified concerns. In conjunction with a COPDGene Participant Advisory Panel, we developed and obtained IRB approval for a process of returning HCV research results and an HCV Follow-Up Study questionnaire to capture information about previous HCV diagnosis and treatment information and participant reactions to return of HCV results. During phone calls following the initial HCV notification letter, 84 of 124 participants who could be contacted (67.7%) volunteered that they had been previously diagnosed with HCV infection. Thirty-one of these 124 COPDGene participants were enrolled in the HCV Follow-Up Study. Five of the 31 HCV Follow-Up Study participants did not report a previous diagnosis of HCV. For four of these participants, subsequent clinical HCV testing confirmed HCV infection. Thus, 30/31 Follow-Up Study participants had confirmed HCV diagnoses, supporting the accuracy of the HCV research test results. However, the limited number of participants in the Follow-Up Study precludes an accurate assessment of the false-positive and false-negative rates of the research RNA sequencing evidence for HCV. Most HCV Follow-Up Study participants (29/31) were supportive of returning HCV research results, and most participants found the process for returning HCV results to be informative and not upsetting. Newly diagnosed participants were more likely to be pleased to learn about a potentially curable infection (p = 0.027) and showed a trend toward being more frightened by the potential health risks of HCV (p = 0.11). We conclude that HCV results identified incidentally during transcriptomic research studies can be successfully returned to research study participants with a carefully designed process.

Deep Learning Integration of Chest Computed Tomography Imaging and Gene Expression Identifies Novel Aspects of COPD

Rationale

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is characterized by pathologic changes in the airways, lung parenchyma, and persistent inflammation, but the links between lung structural changes and blood transcriptome patterns have not been fully described.

Objections

The objective of this study was to identify novel relationships between lung structural changes measured by chest computed tomography (CT) and blood transcriptome patterns measured by blood RNA sequencing (RNA-seq).

Methods

CT scan images and blood RNA-seq gene expression from 1223 participants in the COPD Genetic Epidemiology (COPDGene®) study were jointly analyzed using deep learning to identify shared aspects of inflammation and lung structural changes that we labeled image-expression axes (IEAs). We related IEAs to COPD-related measurements and prospective health outcomes through regression and Cox proportional hazards models and tested them for biological pathway enrichment.

Results

We identified 2 distinct IEAs: IEAemph which captures an emphysema-predominant process with a strong positive correlation to CT emphysema and a negative correlation to forced expiratory volume in 1 second and body mass index (BMI); and IEAairway which captures an airway-predominant process with a positive correlation to BMI and airway wall thickness and a negative correlation to emphysema. Pathway enrichment analysis identified 29 and 13 pathways significantly associated with IEAemph and IEAairway, respectively (adjusted p<0.001).

Conclusions

Integration of CT scans and blood RNA-seq data identified 2 IEAs that capture distinct inflammatory processes associated with emphysema and airway-predominant COPD.

Incident low muscle mass is associated with greater lung disease and lower circulating leptin in a tobacco-exposed longitudinal cohort

BACKGROUND

Muscle loss is prevalent in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). Prior studies evaluating musculoskeletal dysfunction in COPD have focused on individuals with baseline low muscle mass. Currently, there is limited data evaluating clinical characteristics and outcomes associated with progression to incident low muscle mass in a tobacco-exposed cohort of individuals with baseline normal muscle mass.

METHODS

We evaluated 246 participants from a single-center longitudinal tobacco-exposed cohort with serial spirometry, thoracic imaging, dual energy x-ray absorptiometry (DXA) measurements, walk testing, and plasma adipokine measurements. DXA-derived fat free mass index (FFMI) and appendicular skeletal mass index (ASMI) were used as surrogates for muscle mass. Participants with incident low muscle mass (LM) at follow-up were characterized by FFMI < 18.4 kg/m2 in males and < 15.4 kg/m2 in females and/or ASMI < 7.25 kg/m2 in males and < 5.67 kg/m2 in females.

RESULTS

Twenty-five (10%) participants progressed to incident low muscle mass at follow-up. At baseline, the LM subgroup had greater active smoking prevalence (60% v. 38%, p = 0.04), lower FFMI (17.8 ± 1.7 kg/m2 v. 19.7 ± 2.9 kg/m2, p = 0.002), lower ASMI (7.3 ± 0.9 kg/m2 v. 8.2 ± 1.2 kg/m2, p = 0.0003), and lower plasma leptin (14.9 ± 10.1 ng/mL v. 24.0 ± 20.9 ng/mL, p = 0.04). At follow-up, the LM subgroup had higher COPD prevalence (68% v. 43%, p = 0.02), lower FEV1/FVC (0.63 ± 0.12 v. 0.69 ± 0.12, p = 0.02), lower %DLco (66.5 ± 15.9% v. 73.9 ± 16.8%, p = 0.03), and higher annual rate of FFMI decline (-0.17 kg/m2/year v. -0.04 kg/m2/year, p = 0.006). There were no differences in age, gender distribution, pack years smoking history, or walk distance.

CONCLUSIONS

We identified a subgroup of tobacco-exposed individuals with normal baseline muscle mass who progressed to incident DXA-derived low muscle mass. This subgroup demonstrated synchronous lung disease and persistently low circulating leptin levels. Our study suggests the importance of assessing for muscle loss in conjunction with lung function decline when evaluating individuals with tobacco exposure.

FEV1/FVC Severity Stages for Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease

Rationale: The diagnosis of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is based on a low FEV1/FVC ratio, but the severity of COPD is classified using FEV1% predicted (ppFEV1). Objectives: To test a new severity classification scheme for COPD using FEV1/FVC ratio, a more robust measure of airflow obstruction than ppFEV1. Methods: In COPDGene (Genetic Epidemiology of COPD) (N = 10,132), the severity of airflow obstruction was categorized by Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease (GOLD) stages 1-4 (ppFEV1 of ⩾80%, ⩾50-80%, ⩾30-50%, and <30%). A new severity classification (STaging of Airflow obstruction by Ratio; STAR) was tested in COPDGene-FEV1/FVC ⩾0.60 to <0.70, ⩾0.50 to <0.60, ⩾0.40 to <0.50, and <0.40, respectively, for stages 1-4-and applied to the combined Pittsburgh SCCOR and Emphysema COPD Research Registry for replication (N = 2,017). Measurements and Main Results: The agreements (weighted Bangdiwala B values) between GOLD and the new FEV1/FVC ratio severity stages were 0.89 in COPDGene and 0.88 in the Pittsburgh cohort. In COPDGene and the Pittsburgh cohort, compared with GOLD staging, STAR provided significant discrimination between the absence of airflow obstruction and stage 1 for all-cause mortality, respiratory quality of life, dyspnea, airway wall thickness, exacerbations, and lung function decline. No major differences were noted for emphysema, small airway disease, and 6-minute-walk distance. The STAR classification system identified a greater number of adults with stage 3/4 disease who would be eligible for lung transplantation and lung volume reduction procedure evaluations. Conclusions: The new STAR severity classification scheme provides discrimination for mortality that is similar to the GOLD classification but with a more uniform gradation of disease severity. STAR differentiates patients' symptoms, disease burden, and prognosis better than the existing scheme based on ppFEV1, and is less sensitive to race/ethnicity and other demographic characteristics.

Researching COVID to Enhance Recovery (RECOVER) adult study protocol: Rationale, objectives, and design

IMPORTANCE

SARS-CoV-2 infection can result in ongoing, relapsing, or new symptoms or other health effects after the acute phase of infection; termed post-acute sequelae of SARS-CoV-2 infection (PASC), or long COVID. The characteristics, prevalence, trajectory and mechanisms of PASC are ill-defined. The objectives of the Researching COVID to Enhance Recovery (RECOVER) Multi-site Observational Study of PASC in Adults (RECOVER-Adult) are to: (1) characterize PASC prevalence; (2) characterize the symptoms, organ dysfunction, natural history, and distinct phenotypes of PASC; (3) identify demographic, social and clinical risk factors for PASC onset and recovery; and (4) define the biological mechanisms underlying PASC pathogenesis.

METHODS

RECOVER-Adult is a combined prospective/retrospective cohort currently planned to enroll 14,880 adults aged ≥18 years. Eligible participants either must meet WHO criteria for suspected, probable, or confirmed infection; or must have evidence of no prior infection. Recruitment occurs at 86 sites in 33 U.S. states, Washington, DC and Puerto Rico, via facility- and community-based outreach. Participants complete quarterly questionnaires about symptoms, social determinants, vaccination status, and interim SARS-CoV-2 infections. In addition, participants contribute biospecimens and undergo physical and laboratory examinations at approximately 0, 90 and 180 days from infection or negative test date, and yearly thereafter. Some participants undergo additional testing based on specific criteria or random sampling. Patient representatives provide input on all study processes. The primary study outcome is onset of PASC, measured by signs and symptoms. A paradigm for identifying PASC cases will be defined and updated using supervised and unsupervised learning approaches with cross-validation. Logistic regression and proportional hazards regression will be conducted to investigate associations between risk factors, onset, and resolution of PASC symptoms.

DISCUSSION

RECOVER-Adult is the first national, prospective, longitudinal cohort of PASC among US adults. Results of this study are intended to inform public health, spur clinical trials, and expand treatment options.

REGISTRATION

NCT05172024.

Clinically stable covid-19 patients presenting to acute unscheduled episodic care venues have increased risk of hospitalization: secondary analysis of a randomized control trial

BACKGROUND

Assessment for risks associated with acute stable COVID-19 is important to optimize clinical trial enrollment and target patients for scarce therapeutics. To assess whether healthcare system engagement location is an independent predictor of outcomes we performed a secondary analysis of the ACTIV-4B Outpatient Thrombosis Prevention trial.

METHODS

A secondary analysis of the ACTIV-4B trial that was conducted at 52 US sites between September 2020 and August 2021. Participants were enrolled through acute unscheduled episodic care (AUEC) enrollment location (emergency department, or urgent care clinic visit) compared to minimal contact (MC) enrollment (electronic contact from test center lists of positive patients).We report the primary composite outcome of cardiopulmonary hospitalizations, symptomatic venous thromboembolism, myocardial infarction, stroke, transient ischemic attack, systemic arterial thromboembolism, or death among stable outpatients stratified by enrollment setting, AUEC versus MC. A propensity score for AUEC enrollment was created, and Cox proportional hazards regression with inverse probability weighting (IPW) was used to compare the primary outcome by enrollment location.

RESULTS

Among the 657 ACTIV-4B patients randomized, 533 (81.1%) with known enrollment setting data were included in this analysis, 227 from AUEC settings and 306 from MC settings. In a multivariate logistic regression model, time from COVID test, age, Black race, Hispanic ethnicity, and body mass index were associated with AUEC enrollment. Irrespective of trial treatment allocation, patients enrolled at an AUEC setting were 10-times more likely to suffer from the adjudicated primary outcome, 7.9% vs. 0.7%; p < 0.001, compared with patients enrolled at a MC setting. Upon Cox regression analysis adjustment patients enrolled at an AUEC setting remained at significant risk of the primary composite outcome, HR 3.40 (95% CI 1.46, 7.94).

CONCLUSIONS

Patients with clinically stable COVID-19 presenting to an AUEC enrollment setting represent a population at increased risk of arterial and venous thrombosis complications, hospitalization for cardiopulmonary events, or death, when adjusted for other risk factors, compared with patients enrolled at a MC setting. Future outpatient therapeutic trials and clinical therapeutic delivery programs of clinically stable COVID-19 patients may focus on inclusion of higher-risk patient populations from AUEC engagement locations.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT04498273.

Researching COVID to enhance recovery (RECOVER) pregnancy study: Rationale, objectives and design

Importance

Pregnancy induces unique physiologic changes to the immune response and hormonal changes leading to plausible differences in the risk of developing post-acute sequelae of SARS-CoV-2 (PASC), or Long COVID. Exposure to SARS-CoV-2 during pregnancy may also have long-term ramifications for exposed offspring, and it is critical to evaluate the health outcomes of exposed children. The National Institutes of Health (NIH) Researching COVID to Enhance Recovery (RECOVER) Multi-site Observational Study of PASC aims to evaluate the long-term sequelae of SARS-CoV-2 infection in various populations. RECOVER- Pregnancy was designed specifically to address long-term outcomes in maternal-child dyads.

Methods

RECOVER-Pregnancy cohort is a combined prospective and retrospective cohort that proposes to enroll 2,300 individuals with a pregnancy during the COVID-19 pandemic and their offspring exposed and unexposed in utero, including single and multiple gestations. Enrollment will occur both in person at 27 sites through the Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institutes of Health Maternal-Fetal Medicine Units Network and remotely through national recruitment by the study team at the University of California San Francisco (UCSF). Adults with and without SARS-CoV-2 infection during pregnancy are eligible for enrollment in the pregnancy cohort and will follow the protocol for RECOVER-Adult including validated screening tools, laboratory analyses and symptom questionnaires followed by more in-depth phenotyping of PASC on a subset of the overall cohort. Offspring exposed and unexposed in utero to SARS-CoV-2 maternal infection will undergo screening tests for neurodevelopment and other health outcomes at 12, 18, 24, 36 and 48 months of age. Blood specimens will be collected at 24 months of age for SARS-CoV-2 antibody testing, storage and anticipated later analyses proposed by RECOVER and other investigators.

Discussion

RECOVER-Pregnancy will address whether having SARS-CoV-2 during pregnancy modifies the risk factors, prevalence, and phenotype of PASC. The pregnancy cohort will also establish whether there are increased risks of adverse long-term outcomes among children exposed in utero.

Registration

NCT05172024.

CT pectoralis muscle area is associated with DXA lean mass and correlates with emphysema progression in a tobacco-exposed cohort

INTRODUCTION

Muscle loss is an important extrapulmonary manifestation of COPD. Dual energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) is the method of choice for body composition measurement but is not widely used for muscle mass evaluation. The pectoralis muscle area (PMA) is quantifiable by CT and predicts cross-sectional COPD-related morbidity. There are no studies that compare PMA with DXA measures or that evaluate longitudinal relationships between PMA and lung disease progression.

METHODS

Participants from our longitudinal tobacco-exposed cohort had baseline and 6-year chest CT (n=259) and DXA (n=164) data. Emphysema was quantified by CT density histogram parenchymal scoring using the 15th percentile technique. Fat-free mass index (FFMI) and appendicular skeletal mass index (ASMI) were calculated from DXA measurements. Linear regression model relationships were reported using standardised coefficient (β) with 95% CI.

RESULTS

PMA was more strongly associated with DXA measures than with body mass index (BMI) in both cross-sectional (FFMI: β=0.76 (95% CI 0.65 to 0.86), p<0.001; ASMI: β=0.76 (95% CI 0.66 to 0.86), p<0.001; BMI: β=0.36 (95% CI 0.25 to 0.47), p<0.001) and longitudinal (ΔFFMI: β=0.43 (95% CI 0.28 to 0.57), p<0.001; ΔASMI: β=0.42 (95% CI 0.27 to 0.57), p<0.001; ΔBMI: β=0.34 (95% CI 0.22 to 0.46), p<0.001) models. Six-year change in PMA was associated with 6-year change in emphysema (β=0.39 (95% CI 0.23 to 0.56), p<0.001) but not with 6-year change in airflow obstruction.

CONCLUSIONS

PMA is an accessible measure of muscle mass and may serve as a useful clinical surrogate for assessing skeletal muscle loss in smokers. Decreased PMA correlated with emphysema progression but not lung function decline, suggesting a difference in the pathophysiology driving emphysema, airflow obstruction and comorbidity risk.

A Model to Predict Residual Volume from Forced Spirometry Measurements in Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease

Background

Lung hyperinflation with elevated residual volume (RV) is associated with poor prognosis in adults with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and is a critical criterion for lung volume reduction selection. Here, we proposed that patterns within spirometric measures could represent the degree of hyperinflation.

Methods

Fractional polynomial multivariate regression was used to develop a prediction model based on age, biological sex, forced expiratory volume in 1 second (FEV₁), and forced vital capacity (FVC) to estimate plethysmography measured RV in patients in the Pittsburgh Specialized Center for Clinically Oriented Research (SCCOR) cohort (n=450). Receiver operating characteristic area under the curve (ROC-AUC) and optimal cut-points from the model were identified. The model was validated in a separate cohort (n=793).

Results

The best fit model: RV %est=[FVC %predicted] x 3.46-[FEV₁/FVC] x 179.80- [FVC % (sqrt)] x 79.53-[age] x 0.98- [sex] x 10.88 + 737.06, where [sex], m=1. R² of observed versus %predicted RV was 0.71. The optimal cut-point to predict an RV % >175% was 161. At this cut-point, ROC-AUC was 0.95, with a sensitivity 0.95, specificity 0.86, positive predictive value (PPV) of 97%, negative predictive value (NPV) of 76%, positive likelihood ratio (LR) of 6.6, and negative LR of 0.06. In a validation cohort of COPD patients (n=793), the model performed similarly, with a sensitivity of 0.82, specificity of 0.83, PPV of 85%, NPV of 79%, positive LR of 4.7, and negative LR of 0.21.

Conclusion

In patients with COPD, a model using only spirometry, age, and biological sex can estimate elevated RV. This tool could facilitate the identification of candidates for lung volume reduction procedures and can be integrated into existing epidemiologic databases to investigate the clinical impact of hyperinflation.

Outpatient Randomized Controlled Trials in the Covid-19 Era and Beyond

Outpatient Trials in the Covid-19 Era and BeyondA group of investigators had a meeting at the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute in May 2020 to discuss ways to decrease thrombotic complications among symptomatic outpatients with Covid-19. The investigators discuss their approach to three specific challenges: conducting a trial remotely, working through regulatory hurdles, and recruiting a diverse population of participants.

Bronchodilators in Tobacco-Exposed Persons with Symptoms and Preserved Lung Function

BACKGROUND

Many persons with a history of smoking tobacco have clinically significant respiratory symptoms despite an absence of airflow obstruction as assessed by spirometry. They are often treated with medications for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), but supporting evidence for this treatment is lacking.

METHODS

We randomly assigned persons who had a tobacco-smoking history of at least 10 pack-years, respiratory symptoms as defined by a COPD Assessment Test score of at least 10 (scores range from 0 to 40, with higher scores indicating worse symptoms), and preserved lung function on spirometry (ratio of forced expiratory volume in 1 second [FEV1] to forced vital capacity [FVC] ≥0.70 and FVC ≥70% of the predicted value after bronchodilator use) to receive either indacaterol (27.5 μg) plus glycopyrrolate (15.6 μg) or placebo twice daily for 12 weeks. The primary outcome was at least a 4-point decrease (i.e., improvement) in the St. George's Respiratory Questionnaire (SGRQ) score (scores range from 0 to 100, with higher scores indicating worse health status) after 12 weeks without treatment failure (defined as an increase in lower respiratory symptoms treated with a long-acting inhaled bronchodilator, glucocorticoid, or antibiotic agent).

RESULTS

A total of 535 participants underwent randomization. In the modified intention-to-treat population (471 participants), 128 of 227 participants (56.4%) in the treatment group and 144 of 244 (59.0%) in the placebo group had at least a 4-point decrease in the SGRQ score (difference, -2.6 percentage points; 95% confidence interval [CI], -11.6 to 6.3; adjusted odds ratio, 0.91; 95% CI, 0.60 to 1.37; P = 0.65). The mean change in the percent of predicted FEV1 was 2.48 percentage points (95% CI, 1.49 to 3.47) in the treatment group and -0.09 percentage points (95% CI, -1.06 to 0.89) in the placebo group, and the mean change in the inspiratory capacity was 0.12 liters (95% CI, 0.07 to 0.18) in the treatment group and 0.02 liters (95% CI, -0.03 to 0.08) in the placebo group. Four serious adverse events occurred in the treatment group, and 11 occurred in the placebo group; none were deemed potentially related to the treatment or placebo.

CONCLUSIONS

Inhaled dual bronchodilator therapy did not decrease respiratory symptoms in symptomatic, tobacco-exposed persons with preserved lung function as assessed by spirometry. (Funded by the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute and others; RETHINC ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT02867761.).

Circulating 1,3-Beta-D-Glucan is Associated with Lung Function, Respiratory Symptoms, and Mediators of Matrix Degradation in Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease

Introduction

Factors beyond cigarette smoke likely contribute to chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) pathogenesis. Prior studies demonstrate fungal colonization of the respiratory tract and increased epithelial barrier permeability in COPD. We sought to determine whether 1,3-beta-d-glucan (BDG), a polysaccharide component of the fungal cell wall, is detectable in the plasma of individuals with COPD and associates with clinical outcomes and matrix degradation proteins.

Methods

BDG was measured in the plasma of current and former smokers with COPD. High BDG was defined as a value greater than the 95^th percentile of BDG in smokers without airflow obstruction. Pulmonary function, emphysema, and symptoms were compared between COPD participants with high versus low BDG. The relationship between plasma BDG, matrix metalloproteinases (MMP) 1, 7, and 9, and tissue inhibitor of matrix metalloproteinases (TIMP) 1, 2, and 4 was assessed adjusting for age, sex, and smoking status.

Results

COPD participants with high BDG plasma levels (19.8%) had lower forced expiratory volume in 1 second to forced vital capacity ratios (median 31.9 versus 39.3, p=0.025), higher St George's Respiratory Questionnaire symptom scores (median 63.6 versus 57.4, p=0.016), and greater prevalence of sputum production (69.4% versus 52.0%) and exacerbations (69.4% versus 48%) compared to COPD participants with low BDG. BDG levels directly correlated with MMP1 (r=0.27, p<0.001) and TIMP1 (r=0.16, p=0.022) in unadjusted and adjusted analyses.

Conclusions

Elevated plasma BDG levels correlate with worse lung function, greater respiratory morbidity, and circulating markers of matrix degradation in COPD. These findings suggest that targeting dysbiosis or enhancing epithelial barrier integrity may have disease-modifying effects in COPD.

Bronchoscopic Lung Volume Reduction Coil Treatment for Severe Emphysema: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of Individual Participant Data

Background

Lung volume reduction coil (LVR-coil) treatment provides a minimally invasive treatment option for severe emphysema patients which has been studied in multiple clinical trials.

Objectives

The aim of the study was to assess the effect of LVR-coil treatment on pulmonary function, quality of life, and exercise capacity using individual participant data.

Method

PubMed, Web of Science, and EMBASE were searched until May 17, 2021. Prospective single-arm and randomized controlled trials that evaluated the effect of LVR-coil treatment on forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV₁), residual volume (RV), St. George Respiratory Questionnaire (SGRQ) total score, and/or 6-min walk distance (6MWD) and were registered in an official clinical trial database were eligible for inclusion. Individual patient data were requested, and a linear mixed effects model was used to calculate overall treatment effects.

Results

Eight trials were included in the final analysis, representing 680 individual patients. LVR-coil treatment resulted in a significant improvement in FEV1 at 3- (0.09 L [95% confidence interval (95% CI): 0.06–0.12]) and 6-month follow-up (0.07 L [95% CI: 0.03–0.10]), a significant reduction in RV at 3- (−0.45L [95% CI: −0.62 to −0.28]), 6- (−0.33L [95% CI: −0.52 to −0.14]), and 12-month follow-up (−0.36L [95% CI: −0.64 to −0.08]), a significant reduction in SGRQ total score at 3- (−12.3 points [95% CI: −15.8 to −8.8]), 6- (−10.1 points [95% CI: −12.8 to −7.3]), and 12-month follow-up (−9.8 points [95% CI: −15.0 to −4.7]) and a significant increase in 6MWD at 3-month follow-up (38 m [95% CI: 18–58]).

Conclusions

LVR-coil treatment in emphysema patients results in sustained improvements in pulmonary function and quality of life and shorter lived improvements in exercise capacity. Since the owner of this LVR-coil has decided to stop the production and newer generations LVR-coils are currently being developed, these results can act as a reference for future studies and clinical guidance.

Extracellular Release of Mitochondrial DNA: Triggered by Cigarette Smoke and Detected in COPD

Cigarette smoke (CS) is the most common risk factor for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). The present study aimed to elucidate whether mtDNA is released upon CS exposure and is detected in the plasma of former smokers affected by COPD as a possible consequence of airway damage. We measured cell-free mtDNA (cf-mtDNA) and nuclear DNA (cf-nDNA) in COPD patient plasma and mouse serum with CS-induced emphysema. The plasma of patients with COPD and serum of mice with CS-induced emphysema showed increased cf-mtDNA levels. In cell culture, exposure to a sublethal dose of CSE decreased mitochondrial membrane potential, increased oxidative stress, dysregulated mitochondrial dynamics, and triggered mtDNA release in extracellular vesicles (EVs). Mitochondrial DNA release into EVs occurred concomitantly with increased expression of markers that associate with DNA damage responses, including DNase III, DNA-sensing receptors (cGAS and NLRP3), proinflammatory cytokines (IL-1β, IL-6, IL-8, IL-18, and CXCL2), and markers of senescence (p16 and p21); the majority of the responses are also triggered by cytosolic DNA delivery in vitro. Exposure to a lethal CSE dose preferentially induced mtDNA and nDNA release in the cell debris. Collectively, the results of this study associate markers of mitochondrial stress, inflammation, and senescence with mtDNA release induced by CSE exposure. Because high cf-mtDNA is detected in the plasma of COPD patients and serum of mice with emphysema, our findings support the future study of cf-mtDNA as a marker of mitochondrial stress in response to CS exposure and COPD pathology.

Effect of Antithrombotic Therapy on Clinical Outcomes in Outpatients With Clinically Stable Symptomatic COVID-19: The ACTIV-4B Randomized Clinical Trial

Importance

Acutely ill inpatients with COVID-19 typically receive antithrombotic therapy, although the risks and benefits of this intervention among outpatients with COVID-19 have not been established.

Objective

To assess whether anticoagulant or antiplatelet therapy can safely reduce major adverse cardiopulmonary outcomes among symptomatic but clinically stable outpatients with COVID-19.

Design, Setting, and Participants

The ACTIV-4B Outpatient Thrombosis Prevention Trial was designed as a minimal-contact, adaptive, randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial to compare anticoagulant and antiplatelet therapy among 7000 symptomatic but clinically stable outpatients with COVID-19. The trial was conducted at 52 US sites between September 2020 and June 2021; final follow-up was August 5, 2021. Prior to initiating treatment, participants were required to have platelet count greater than 100 000/mm3 and estimated glomerular filtration rate greater than 30 mL/min/1.73 m2.

Interventions

Random allocation in a 1:1:1:1 ratio to aspirin (81 mg orally once daily; n = 164), prophylactic-dose apixaban (2.5 mg orally twice daily; n = 165), therapeutic-dose apixaban (5 mg orally twice daily; n = 164), or placebo (n = 164) for 45 days.

Main Outcomes and Measures

The primary end point was a composite of all-cause mortality, symptomatic venous or arterial thromboembolism, myocardial infarction, stroke, or hospitalization for cardiovascular or pulmonary cause. The primary analyses for efficacy and bleeding events were limited to participants who took at least 1 dose of trial medication.

Results

On June 18, 2021, the trial data and safety monitoring board recommended early termination because of lower than anticipated event rates; at that time, 657 symptomatic outpatients with COVID-19 had been randomized (median age, 54 years [IQR, 46-59]; 59% women). The median times from diagnosis to randomization and from randomization to initiation of study treatment were 7 days and 3 days, respectively. Twenty-two randomized participants (3.3%) were hospitalized for COVID-19 prior to initiating treatment. Among the 558 patients who initiated treatment, the adjudicated primary composite end point occurred in 1 patient (0.7%) in the aspirin group, 1 patient (0.7%) in the 2.5-mg apixaban group, 2 patients (1.4%) in the 5-mg apixaban group, and 1 patient (0.7%) in the placebo group. The risk differences compared with placebo for the primary end point were 0.0% (95% CI not calculable) in the aspirin group, 0.7% (95% CI, -2.1% to 4.1%) in the 2.5-mg apixaban group, and 1.4% (95% CI, -1.5% to 5.0%) in the 5-mg apixaban group. Risk differences compared with placebo for bleeding events were 2.0% (95% CI, -2.7% to 6.8%), 4.5% (95% CI, -0.7% to 10.2%), and 6.9% (95% CI, 1.4% to 12.9%) among participants who initiated therapy in the aspirin, prophylactic apixaban, and therapeutic apixaban groups, respectively, although none were major. Findings inclusive of all randomized patients were similar.

Conclusions and Relevance

Among symptomatic clinically stable outpatients with COVID-19, treatment with aspirin or apixaban compared with placebo did not reduce the rate of a composite clinical outcome. However, the study was terminated after enrollment of 9% of participants because of an event rate lower than anticipated.

Trial Registration

ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT04498273.

HLA-C and KIR permutations influence chronic obstructive pulmonary disease risk

A role for hereditary influences in the susceptibility for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is widely recognized. Cytotoxic lymphocytes are implicated in COPD pathogenesis, and functions of these leukocytes are modulated by interactions between their killer cell Ig-like receptors (KIR) and human leukocyte antigen–Class I (HLA–Class I) molecules on target cells. We hypothesized HLA–Class I and KIR inheritance affect risks for COPD. HLA–Class I alleles and KIR genotypes were defined by candidate gene analyses in multiple cohorts of patients with COPD (total n = 392) and control smokers with normal spirometry (total n = 342). Compared with controls, patients with COPD had overrepresentations of HLA-C*07 and activating KIR2DS1, with underrepresentations of HLA-C*12. Particular HLA-KIR permutations were synergistic; e.g., the presence of HLA-C*07 + KIR2DS1 + HLA-C12^null versus HLAC*07^null + KIR2DS1^null + HLA-C12 was associated with COPD, especially among HLA-C1 allotype homozygotes. Cytotoxicity of COPD lymphocytes was more enhanced by KIR stimulation than those of controls and was correlated with lung function. These data show HLA-C and KIR polymorphisms strongly influence COPD susceptibility and highlight the importance of lymphocyte-mediated cytotoxicity in COPD pathogenesis. Findings here also indicate that HLA-KIR typing could stratify at-risk patients and raise possibilities that HLA-KIR axis modulation may have therapeutic potential.

Association of Systemic Inflammation with Depressive Symptoms in Individuals with COPD

Rationale

Depression is a prevalent comorbidity of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) that, along with COPD, has been associated with inflammation. An association between inflammation and depression in COPD has not been validated in a large COPD cohort.

Methods

Individuals from the University of Pittsburgh SCCOR cohort and the COPDGene cohort with tobacco use history and airway obstruction (FEV₁/FVC <0.7) were evaluated using the Beck Depression Inventory II (BDI-II) and the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale (HADS), respectively. Participants completed symptom-related questionnaires and plasma IL-6 measurements. T-test, Fisher’s Exact tests and logistic regression were used for statistical analysis.

Results

The SCCOR cohort included 220 obstructed participants: 44% female and 21.4% with elevated depressive symptoms. GOLD staging distribution was predominantly stage I and II. The COPDGene cohort included 745 obstructed participants: 44% female and 13.0% with elevated depressive symptoms. GOLD distribution was predominantly stage II and III. In the SCCOR cohort, correlation between IL-6 and depressive symptoms trended toward significance (p= 0.08). Multivariable modeling adjusted for FEV₁, age, gender and medical comorbidities showed a significant association (OR = 1.70, 95% CI = 1.08–2.69). IL-6 was significantly associated with elevated depressive symptoms in COPDGene in both univariate (p=0.001) and multivariable modeling (OR = 1.52, 95% CI =1.13–2.04).

Conclusion

Elevated plasma IL-6 levels are associated with depressive symptoms in individuals with COPD independent of airflow limitation and comorbid risk factors for depression. Our results suggest that systemic inflammation may play a significant and possibly bidirectional role in depression associated with COPD.

A pilot study: Quantify lung volume and emphysema extent directly from two-dimensional scout images

PURPOSE

The potential to compute volume metrics of emphysema from planar scout images was investigated in this study. The successful implementation of this concept will have a wide impact in different fields, and specifically, maximize the diagnostic potential of the planar medical images.

METHODS

We investigated our premise using a well-characterized chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) cohort. In this cohort, planar scout images from computed tomography (CT) scans were used to compute lung volume and percentage of emphysema. Lung volume and percentage of emphysema were quantified on the volumetric CT images and used as the "ground truth" for developing the models to compute the variables from the corresponding scout images. We trained two classical convolutional neural networks (CNNs), including VGG19 and InceptionV3, to compute lung volume and the percentage of emphysema from the scout images. The scout images (n = 1,446) were split into three subgroups: (1) training (n = 1,235), (2) internal validation (n = 99), and (3) independent test (n = 112) at the subject level in a ratio of 8:1:1. The mean absolute difference (MAD) and R-square (R2) were the performance metrics to evaluate the prediction performance of the developed models.

RESULTS

The lung volumes and percentages of emphysema computed from a single planar scout image were significantly linear correlated with the measures quantified using volumetric CT images (VGG19: R2 = 0.934 for lung volume and R2 = 0.751 for emphysema percentage, and InceptionV3: R2 = 0.977 for lung volume and R2 = 0.775 for emphysema percentage). The mean absolute differences (MADs) for lung volume and percentage of emphysema were 0.302 ± 0.247L and 2.89 ± 2.58%, respectively, for VGG19, and 0.366 ± 0.287L and 3.19 ± 2.14, respectively, for InceptionV3.

CONCLUSIONS

Our promising results demonstrated the feasibility of inferring volume metrics from planar images using CNNs.

Objectively measured physical activity as a COPD clinical trial outcome

BACKGROUND

Reduced physical activity is common in COPD and is associated with poor outcomes. Physical activity is therefore a worthy target for intervention in clinical trials, however, trials evaluating physical activity have used heterogeneous methodologies.

RESEARCH QUESTION

What is the available evidence on the efficacy and/or effectiveness of various interventions to enhance objectively measured physical activity in patients with COPD, taking into account minimal preferred methodological quality of physical activity assessment?

STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS

In this narrative review, the COPD Biomarker Qualification Consortium (CBQC) task force searched three scientific databases for articles that reported the effect of an intervention on objectively-measured physical activity in COPD. Based on scientific literature and expert consensus, only studies with ≥7 measurement days and ≥4 valid days of ≥8 hours of monitoring were included in the primary analysis.

RESULTS

37 of 110 (34%) identified studies fulfilled the criteria, investigating the efficacy and/or effectiveness of physical activity behavior change programs (n=7), mobile health or eHealth interventions (n=9), rehabilitative exercise (n=9), bronchodilation (n=6), lung volume reduction procedures (n=3) and other interventions (n=3). Results are generally variable, reflecting the large variation in study characteristics and outcomes. Few studies show an increase beyond the proposed minimal important change of 600-1100 daily steps, indicating that enhancing physical activity levels is a challenge.

INTERPRETATION

Only a third of clinical trials measuring objective physical activity in people with COPD fulfilled the pre-set criteria regarding physical activity assessment. Studies showed variable effects on physical activity even when investigating similar interventions.

Mepolizumab for Eosinophil-Associated COPD: Analysis of METREX and METREO

Background

A pre-specified meta-analysis of individual patient data from the 52-week METREX and METREO trials, which investigated mepolizumab for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) in patients with blood eosinophil counts ≥150 cells/µL (screening) or ≥300 cells/µL (prior year) and frequent exacerbations, enables more robust characterization of mepolizumab efficacy in COPD and exploration of the relationship between blood eosinophil count and treatment responses.

Methods

In METREX (117106/NCT02105948) and METREO (117113/NCT02105961), randomized patients received mepolizumab or placebo added to existing inhaled corticosteroid (ICS)–based triple maintenance therapy. The annual rate of moderate/severe exacerbations (primary endpoint) was compared between subcutaneous (SC) mepolizumab 100 mg versus placebo (primary comparison of interest) and all doses (100 mg and 300 mg SC) versus placebo in patients with blood eosinophil counts ≥150 cells/µL at screening or ≥300 cells/µL in the prior year. Secondary/other endpoints included time to first moderate/severe exacerbation, exacerbations leading to emergency department visit/hospitalization and health-related quality of life (HRQoL). A predictive model of the relationship between screening blood eosinophil counts and exacerbation rates included data from all randomized patients.

Results

In total, 1510 patients were randomized in METREX and METREO and 1136 patients were included in the pre-specified meta-analysis. From the meta-analysis, mepolizumab 100 mg SC significantly reduced annual moderate/severe exacerbation rates versus placebo by 18% (rate ratio: 0.82; 95% confidence interval: 0.71, 0.95; p=0.006) and delayed time to first moderate/severe exacerbation (hazard ratio: 0.80 [0.68, 0.94]; p=0.006). Mepolizumab 100 mg SC versus placebo numerically reduced exacerbations leading to ED visits/hospitalization and improved HRQoL. A modelling approach demonstrated increasing efficacy for moderate/severe exacerbations with increasing screening blood eosinophil count; this relationship was more pronounced for exacerbations requiring oral corticosteroids (post hoc). The all-doses comparison had similar results.

Conclusion

Mepolizumab reduces exacerbations in patients with eosinophil-associated COPD. Results suggest that blood eosinophil counts (≥150 cells/µL at screening or ≥300 cells/µL in the prior year) allow for identification of patients with COPD who experience exacerbations while treated with maximal ICS-based triple maintenance therapy who are likely to benefit from mepolizumab.

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Unpaired data empowers association tests

Motivation

There is growing interest in the biomedical research community to incorporate retrospective data, available in healthcare systems, to shed light on associations between different biomarkers. Understanding the association between various types of biomedical data, such as genetic, blood biomarkers, imaging, etc. can provide a holistic understanding of human diseases. To formally test a hypothesized association between two types of data in Electronic Health Records (EHRs), one requires a substantial sample size with both data modalities to achieve a reasonable power. Current association test methods only allow using data from individuals who have both data modalities. Hence, researchers cannot take advantage of much larger EHR samples that includes individuals with at least one of the data types, which limits the power of the association test.

Results

We present a new method called the Semi-paired Association Test (SAT) that makes use of both paired and unpaired data. In contrast to classical approaches, incorporating unpaired data allows SAT to produce better control of false discovery and to improve the power of the association test. We study the properties of the new test theoretically and empirically, through a series of simulations and by applying our method on real studies in the context of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease. We are able to identify an association between the high-dimensional characterization of Computed Tomography chest images and several blood biomarkers as well as the expression of dozens of genes involved in the immune system.

Availability and implementation

Code is available on https://github.com/batmanlab/Semi-paired-Association-Test.

Supplementary information

Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

Effect of Antimicrobial Therapy on Respiratory Hospitalization or Death in Adults With Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis: The CleanUP-IPF Randomized Clinical Trial

IMPORTANCE

Alteration in lung microbes is associated with disease progression in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis.

OBJECTIVE

To assess the effect of antimicrobial therapy on clinical outcomes.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

Pragmatic, randomized, unblinded clinical trial conducted across 35 US sites. A total of 513 patients older than 40 years were randomized from August 2017 to June 2019 (final follow-up was January 2020).

INTERVENTIONS

Patients were randomized in a 1:1 allocation ratio to receive antimicrobials (n = 254) or usual care alone (n = 259). Antimicrobials included co-trimoxazole (trimethoprim 160 mg/sulfamethoxazole 800 mg twice daily plus folic acid 5 mg daily, n = 128) or doxycycline (100 mg once daily if body weight <50 kg or 100 mg twice daily if ≥50 kg, n = 126). No placebo was administered in the usual care alone group.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

The primary end point was time to first nonelective respiratory hospitalization or all-cause mortality.

RESULTS

Among the 513 patients who were randomized (mean age, 71 years; 23.6% women), all (100%) were included in the analysis. The study was terminated for futility on December 18, 2019. After a mean follow-up time of 13.1 months (median, 12.7 months), a total of 108 primary end point events occurred: 52 events (20.4 events per 100 patient-years [95% CI, 14.8-25.9]) in the usual care plus antimicrobial therapy group and 56 events (18.4 events per 100 patient-years [95% CI, 13.2-23.6]) in the usual care group, with no significant difference between groups (adjusted HR, 1.04 [95% CI, 0.71-1.53; P = .83]. There was no statistically significant interaction between the effect of the prespecified antimicrobial agent (co-trimoxazole vs doxycycline) on the primary end point (adjusted HR, 1.15 [95% CI 0.68-1.95] in the co-trimoxazole group vs 0.82 [95% CI, 0.46-1.47] in the doxycycline group; P = .66). Serious adverse events occurring at 5% or greater among those treated with usual care plus antimicrobials vs usual care alone included respiratory events (16.5% vs 10.0%) and infections (2.8% vs 6.6%); adverse events of special interest included diarrhea (10.2% vs 3.1%) and rash (6.7% vs 0%).

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

Among adults with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis, the addition of co-trimoxazole or doxycycline to usual care, compared with usual care alone, did not significantly improve time to nonelective respiratory hospitalization or death. These findings do not support treatment with these antibiotics for the underlying disease.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT02759120.

The Association Between Lung Hyperinflation and Coronary Artery Disease in Smokers

BACKGROUND

Smokers manifest varied phenotypes of pulmonary impairment.

RESEARCH QUESTION

Which pulmonary phenotypes are associated with coronary artery disease (CAD) in smokers?

STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS

We analyzed data from the University of Pittsburgh COPD Specialized Center for Clinically Oriented Research (SCCOR) cohort (n = 481) and the Genetic Epidemiology of COPD (COPDGene) cohort (n = 2,580). Participants were current and former smokers with > 10 pack-years of tobacco exposure. Data from the two cohorts were analyzed separately because of methodologic differences. Lung hyperinflation was assessed by plethysmography in the SCCOR cohort and by inspiratory and expiratory CT scan lung volumes in the COPDGene cohort. Subclinical CAD was assessed as the coronary artery calcium score, whereas clinical CAD was defined as a self-reported history of CAD or myocardial infarction (MI). Analyses were performed in all smokers and then repeated in those with airflow obstruction (FEV₁ to FVC ratio, < 0.70).

RESULTS

Pulmonary phenotypes, including airflow limitation, emphysema, lung hyperinflation, diffusion capacity, and radiographic measures of airway remodeling, showed weak to moderate correlations (r < 0.7) with each other. In multivariate models adjusted for pulmonary phenotypes and CAD risk factors, lung hyperinflation was the only phenotype associated with calcium score, history of clinical CAD, or history of MI (per 0.2 higher expiratory and inspiratory CT scan lung volume; coronary calcium: OR, 1.2; 95% CI, 1.1-1.5; P = .02; clinical CAD: OR, 1.6; 95% CI, 1.1-2.3; P = .01; and MI in COPDGene: OR, 1.7; 95% CI, 1.0-2.8; P = .05). FEV₁ and emphysema were associated with increased risk of CAD (P < .05) in models adjusted for CAD risk factors; however, these associations were attenuated on adjusting for lung hyperinflation. Results were the same in those with airflow obstruction and were present in both cohorts.

INTERPRETATION

Lung hyperinflation is associated strongly with clinical and subclinical CAD in smokers, including those with airflow obstruction. After lung hyperinflation was accounted for, FEV₁ and emphysema no longer were associated with CAD. Subsequent studies should consider measuring lung hyperinflation and examining its mechanistic role in CAD in current and former smokers.

Soluble receptor for advanced glycation end products (sRAGE) as a biomarker of COPD

BACKGROUND

Soluble receptor for advanced glycation end products (sRAGE) is a proposed emphysema and airflow obstruction biomarker; however, previous publications have shown inconsistent associations and only one study has investigate the association between sRAGE and emphysema. No cohorts have examined the association between sRAGE and progressive decline of lung function. There have also been no evaluation of assay compatibility, receiver operating characteristics, and little examination of the effect of genetic variability in non-white population. This manuscript addresses these deficiencies and introduces novel data from Pittsburgh COPD SCCOR and as well as novel work on airflow obstruction. A meta-analysis is used to quantify sRAGE associations with clinical phenotypes.

METHODS

sRAGE was measured in four independent longitudinal cohorts on different analytic assays: COPDGene (n = 1443); SPIROMICS (n = 1623); ECLIPSE (n = 2349); Pittsburgh COPD SCCOR (n = 399). We constructed adjusted linear mixed models to determine associations of sRAGE with baseline and follow up forced expiratory volume at one second (FEV₁) and emphysema by quantitative high-resolution CT lung density at the 15th percentile (adjusted for total lung capacity).

RESULTS

Lower plasma or serum sRAGE values were associated with a COPD diagnosis (P < 0.001), reduced FEV₁ (P < 0.001), and emphysema severity (P < 0.001). In an inverse-variance weighted meta-analysis, one SD lower log₁₀-transformed sRAGE was associated with 105 ± 22 mL lower FEV₁ and 4.14 ± 0.55 g/L lower adjusted lung density. After adjusting for covariates, lower sRAGE at baseline was associated with greater FEV₁ decline and emphysema progression only in the ECLIPSE cohort. Non-Hispanic white subjects carrying the rs2070600 minor allele (A) and non-Hispanic African Americans carrying the rs2071288 minor allele (A) had lower sRAGE measurements compare to those with the major allele, but their emphysema-sRAGE regression slopes were similar.

CONCLUSIONS

Lower blood sRAGE is associated with more severe airflow obstruction and emphysema, but associations with progression are inconsistent in the cohorts analyzed. In these cohorts, genotype influenced sRAGE measurements and strengthened variance modelling. Thus, genotype should be included in sRAGE evaluations.

Adenine nucleotide translocase regulates airway epithelial metabolism, surface hydration and ciliary function

Airway hydration and ciliary function are critical to airway homeostasis and dysregulated in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), which is impacted by cigarette smoking and has no therapeutic options. We utilized a high-copy cDNA library genetic selection approach in the amoeba Dictyostelium discoideum to identify genetic protectors to cigarette smoke. Members of the mitochondrial ADP/ATP transporter family adenine nucleotide translocase (ANT) are protective against cigarette smoke in Dictyostelium and human bronchial epithelial cells. Gene expression of ANT2 is reduced in lung tissue from COPD patients and in a mouse smoking model, and overexpression of ANT1 and ANT2 resulted in enhanced oxidative respiration and ATP flux. In addition to the presence of ANT proteins in the mitochondria, they reside at the plasma membrane in airway epithelial cells and regulate airway homeostasis. ANT2 overexpression stimulates airway surface hydration by ATP and maintains ciliary beating after exposure to cigarette smoke, both of which are key functions of the airway. Our study highlights a potential for upregulation of ANT proteins and/or of their agonists in the protection from dysfunctional mitochondrial metabolism, airway hydration and ciliary motility in COPD.This article has an associated First Person interview with the first author of the paper.

Relationship between Emphysema Progression at CT and Mortality in Ever-Smokers: Results from the COPDGene and ECLIPSE Cohorts

Background The relationship between emphysema progression and long-term outcomes is unclear. Purpose To determine the relationship between emphysema progression at CT and mortality among participants with emphysema. Materials and Methods In a secondary analysis of two prospective observational studies, COPDGene (clinicaltrials.gov, NCT00608764) and Evaluation of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease Longitudinally to Identify Predictive Surrogate End-points (ECLIPSE; clinicaltrials.gov, NCT00292552), emphysema was measured at CT at two points by using the volume-adjusted lung density at the 15th percentile of the lung density histogram (hereafter, lung density perc15) method. The association between emphysema progression rate and all-cause mortality was analyzed by using Cox regression adjusted for ethnicity, sex, baseline age, pack-years, and lung density, baseline and change in smoking status, forced expiratory volume in 1 second, and 6-minute walk distance. In COPDGene, respiratory mortality was analyzed by using the Fine and Gray method. Results A total of 5143 participants (2613 men [51%]; mean age, 60 years ± 9 [standard deviation]) in COPDGene and 1549 participants (973 men [63%]; mean age, 62 years ± 8) in ECLIPSE were evaluated, of which 2097 (40.8%) and 1179 (76.1%) had emphysema, respectively. Baseline imaging was performed between January 2008 and December 2010 for COPDGene and January 2006 and August 2007 for ECLIPSE. Follow-up imaging was performed after 5.5 years ± 0.6 in COPDGene and 3.0 years ± 0.2 in ECLIPSE, and mortality was assessed over the ensuing 5 years in both. For every 1 g/L per year faster rate of decline in lung density perc15, all-cause mortality increased by 8% in COPDGene (hazard ratio [HR], 1.08; 95% CI: 1.01, 1.16; P = .03) and 6% in ECLIPSE (HR, 1.06; 95% CI: 1.00, 1.13; P = .045). In COPDGene, respiratory mortality increased by 22% (HR, 1.22; 95% CI: 1.13, 1.31; P < .001) for the same increase in the rate of change in lung density perc15. Conclusion In ever-smokers with emphysema, emphysema progression at CT was associated with increased all-cause and respiratory mortality. © RSNA, 2021 Online supplemental material is available for this article. See also the editorial by Lee and Park in this issue.

Gene coexpression networks reveal novel molecular endotypes in alpha-1 antitrypsin deficiency

BACKGROUND

Alpha-1 antitrypsin deficiency (AATD) is a genetic condition that causes early onset pulmonary emphysema and airways obstruction. The complete mechanisms via which AATD causes lung disease are not fully understood. To improve our understanding of the pathogenesis of AATD, we investigated gene expression profiles of bronchoalveolar lavage (BAL) and peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMCs) in AATD individuals.

METHODS

We performed RNA-Seq on RNA extracted from matched BAL and PBMC samples isolated from 89 subjects enrolled in the Genomic Research in Alpha-1 Antitrypsin Deficiency and Sarcoidosis (GRADS) study. Subjects were stratified by genotype and augmentation therapy. Supervised and unsupervised differential gene expression analyses were performed using Weighted Gene Co-expression Network Analysis (WGCNA) to identify gene profiles associated with subjects' clinical variables. The genes in the most significant WGCNA module were used to cluster AATD individuals. Gene validation was performed by NanoString nCounter Gene Expression Assay.

RESULT

We observed modest effects of AATD genotype and augmentation therapy on gene expression. When WGCNA was applied to BAL transcriptome, one gene module, ME31 (2312 genes), correlated with the highest number of clinical variables and was functionally enriched with numerous immune T-lymphocyte related pathways. This gene module identified two distinct clusters of AATD individuals with different disease severity and distinct PBMC gene expression patterns.

CONCLUSIONS

We successfully identified novel clusters of AATD individuals where severity correlated with increased immune response independent of individuals' genotype and augmentation therapy. These findings may suggest the presence of previously unrecognised disease endotypes in AATD that associate with T-lymphocyte immunity and disease severity.

HRCT characteristics of severe emphysema patients: Interobserver variability among expert readers and comparison with quantitative software

PURPOSE

For a successful bronchoscopic lung volume reduction coil treatment it is important to place the coils in the most emphysematous lobes. Therefore assessment of the lobe with greatest destruction is essential. Our aims were to investigate the level of agreement among expert reviewers of HRCT-scans in emphysema patients and the comparison with QCT (quantitative computed tomography) software.

METHOD

Five experienced CT-assessors, conducted a visual assessment of the baseline HRCT-scans of emphysema patients who participated in the RENEW bronchoscopic lung volume reduction coil study. On the same HRCT-scans, a QCT analysis was performed.

RESULTS

In total 134 HRCT-scans were rated by all 5 experts. All 5 CT-assessors agreed on which was the most destructed lobe in 61 % of the left lungs (ƙ:0.459) and 60 % of the right lungs (ƙ:0.370). The consensus of the 5 assessors matched the QCT in the left lung for 77 % of the patients (ƙ:0.425) and in the right lung for 82 % (ƙ:0.524).

CONCLUSIONS

Our results show that the interobserver agreement between five expert CT-assessors was only fair to moderate when evaluating the most destructed lobe. CT-assessor consensus improved matching with QCT determination of lobar destruction compared to individual assessor determinations. Because some CT-features are associated with treatment outcomes and important for optimal patient selection of bronchoscopic lung volume reduction treatment, we recommend including more than one CT-reviewer and supported by QCT measurements.

Elevated plasma level of Pentraxin 3 is associated with emphysema and mortality in smokers

BACKGROUND

Pentraxin 3 (PTX3) influences innate immunity and inflammation, host defence, the complement cascade and angiogenesis. PTX3 expression in lung and blood of subjects with tobacco exposure, and its potential relationship with disease pattern and clinical outcome are poorly understood.

METHODS

Using independent platforms and cohorts, we identified associations of PTX3 gene expression in lung tissue and plasma from current and former tobacco smokers (with and without chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, COPD) to disease phenotypes including quantitative CT determined emphysema, lung function, symptoms and survival. Two putative regulatory variants of the PTX3 gene were examined for association with COPD manifestations. The relationship between plasma PTX3 and hyaluronic acid levels was further examined.

RESULTS

PTX3 gene expression in lung tissue was directly correlated with emphysema severity (p<0.0001). Circulating levels of PTX3 were inversely correlated with FEV₁ (p=0.006), and positively associated with emphysema severity (p=0.004) and mortality (p=0.008). Two PTX3 gene regulatory variants were associated with a lower risk for emphysema and expiratory airflow obstruction, and plasma levels of PTX3 and hyaluronic acid were related.

CONCLUSIONS

These data show strong and overlapping associations of lung and blood PTX3 levels, and PTX3 regulatory gene variants, with the severity of airflow obstruction, emphysema and mortality among smokers. These findings have potential implications regarding the pathogenesis of smoking-related lung diseases and warrant further exploration for the use of PTX3 as a predictive biomarker.

Automated quantification of COVID-19 severity and progression using chest CT images

OBJECTIVE

To develop and test computer software to detect, quantify, and monitor progression of pneumonia associated with COVID-19 using chest CT scans.

METHODS

One hundred twenty chest CT scans from subjects with lung infiltrates were used for training deep learning algorithms to segment lung regions and vessels. Seventy-two serial scans from 24 COVID-19 subjects were used to develop and test algorithms to detect and quantify the presence and progression of infiltrates associated with COVID-19. The algorithm included (1) automated lung boundary and vessel segmentation, (2) registration of the lung boundary between serial scans, (3) computerized identification of the pneumonitis regions, and (4) assessment of disease progression. Agreement between radiologist manually delineated regions and computer-detected regions was assessed using the Dice coefficient. Serial scans were registered and used to generate a heatmap visualizing the change between scans. Two radiologists, using a five-point Likert scale, subjectively rated heatmap accuracy in representing progression.

RESULTS

There was strong agreement between computer detection and the manual delineation of pneumonic regions with a Dice coefficient of 81% (CI 76-86%). In detecting large pneumonia regions (> 200 mm3), the algorithm had a sensitivity of 95% (CI 94-97%) and specificity of 84% (CI 81-86%). Radiologists rated 95% (CI 72 to 99) of heatmaps at least "acceptable" for representing disease progression.

CONCLUSION

The preliminary results suggested the feasibility of using computer software to detect and quantify pneumonic regions associated with COVID-19 and to generate heatmaps that can be used to visualize and assess progression.

KEY POINTS

• Both computer vision and deep learning technology were used to develop computer software to quantify the presence and progression of pneumonia associated with COVID-19 depicted on CT images. • The computer software was tested using both quantitative experiments and subjective assessment. • The computer software has the potential to assist in the detection of the pneumonic regions, monitor disease progression, and assess treatment efficacy related to COVID-19.

Two-Year Outcomes for the Double-Blind, Randomized, Sham-Controlled Study of Targeted Lung Denervation in Patients with Moderate to Severe COPD: AIRFLOW-2

Purpose

COPD exacerbations are associated with worsening clinical outcomes and increased healthcare costs, despite use of optimal medical therapy. A novel bronchoscopic therapy, targeted lung denervation (TLD), which disrupts parasympathetic pulmonary innervation of the lung, has been developed to reduce clinical consequences of cholinergic hyperactivity and its impact on COPD exacerbations. The AIRFLOW-2 study assessed the durability of safety and efficacy of TLD additive to optimal drug therapy compared to sham bronchoscopy and optimal drug therapy alone in subjects with moderate-to-severe, symptomatic COPD two years post randomization.

Patients and Methods

TLD was performed in COPD patients (FEV1 30-60% predicted, CAT≥10 or mMRC≥2) in a 1:1 randomized, sham-controlled, double-blinded multicenter study (AIRFLOW-2) using a novel lung denervation system (Nuvaira, Inc., USA). Subjects remained blinded until their 12.5-month follow-up visit when control subjects were offered the opportunity to undergo TLD. A time-to-first-event analysis on moderate and severe and severe exacerbations of COPD was performed.

Results

Eighty-two subjects (FEV1 41.6±7.4% predicted, 50.0% male, age 63.7±6.8 yrs, 24% with prior year respiratory hospitalization) were randomized. Time-to-first severe COPD exacerbation was significantly lengthened in the TLD arm (p=0.04, HR=0.38) at 2 years post-TLD therapy and trended towards similar attenuation for moderate and severe COPD exacerbations (p=0.18, HR=0.71). No significant changes in lung function or SGRQ-C were found 2 years post randomization between groups.

Conclusion

In a randomized trial, TLD demonstrated a durable effect of significantly lower risk of severe AECOPD over 2 years. Further, lung function and quality of life remained stable following TLD.

Clinical Trial Registration

NCT02058459.

SCUBE1 Controls BMPR2-Relevant Pulmonary Endothelial Function: Implications for Diagnostic Marker Development in Pulmonary Arterial Hypertension

Utilizing publicly available ribonucleic acid sequencing data, we identified SCUBE1 as a BMPR2-related gene differentially expressed between induced pluripotent stem cell-endothelial cells derived from pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH) patients carrying pathogenic BMPR2 mutations and control patients without mutations. Endothelial SCUBE1 expression was decreased by known triggers of PAH, and its down-regulation recapitulated known BMPR2-associated endothelial pathophenotypes in vitro. Meanwhile, SCUBE1 concentrations were reduced in plasma obtained from PAH rodent models and patients with PAH, whereas plasma concentrations were tightly correlated with hemodynamic markers of disease severity. Taken together, these data implicate SCUBE1 as a novel contributor to PAH pathogenesis with potential therapeutic, diagnostic, and prognostic applications.

CD70 Activation Decreases Pulmonary Fibroblast Production of Extracellular Matrix Proteins

Idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) is a lethal, medically refractory syndrome characterized by intrapulmonary accumulations of extracellular matrix (ECM) proteins produced by fibroblasts. Activation, clonal expansion, and differentiation of lymphocytes are also frequently present in IPF. Activated T cells are known to exert several effects that promote ECM production, but opposing homeostatic actions, wherein T cells can inhibit fibrosis, are less well understood. We found that CD27, a TNF receptor ubiquitously expressed on naive T cells, is downregulated on CD4 T cells of patients with IPF and that CD70, the sole ligand for CD27, is present on human pulmonary fibroblasts. We hypothesized that cognate engagements between lymphocyte CD27 and fibroblast CD70 could have functional consequences. Accordingly, a series of subsequent studies were conducted to examine the possible role of CD27-CD70 interactions in the regulation of fibrogenesis. Using IB, flow cytometry, RT-PCR, and kinomic assays, we found that fibroblast CD70 expression was inversely correlated with cell density and upregulated by TGF-β1 (transforming growth factor-β1). CD70 agonists, including T-cell-derived soluble CD27, markedly diminished fibroblast collagen and fibronectin synthesis, and these effects were potent enough to also inhibit profibrotic actions of TGF-β1 on ECM production in vitro and in two distinct ex vivo human skin models. CD70 activation was mediated by AKT (protein kinase B) and complex interconnected signaling pathways, and it was abated by prior CD70 knockdown. These results show that the CD70-CD27 axis modulates T-cell-fibroblast interactions and may be an important regulator of fibrosis and wound healing. Fibroblast CD70 could also be a novel target for specific mechanistically based antifibrosis treatments.

A Risk Prediction Model for Mortality Among Smokers in the COPDGene® Study

BACKGROUND

Risk factor identification is a proven strategy in advancing treatments and preventive therapy for many chronic conditions. Quantifying the impact of those risk factors on health outcomes can consolidate and focus efforts on individuals with specific high-risk profiles. Using multiple risk factors and longitudinal outcomes in 2 independent cohorts, we developed and validated a risk score model to predict mortality in current and former cigarette smokers.

METHODS

We obtained extensive data on current and former smokers from the COPD Genetic Epidemiology (COPDGene®) study at enrollment. Based on physician input and model goodness-of-fit measures, a subset of variables was selected to fit final Weibull survival models separately for men and women. Coefficients and predictors were translated into a point system, allowing for easy computation of mortality risk scores and probabilities. We then used the SubPopulations and InteRmediate Outcome Measures In COPD Study (SPIROMICS) cohort for external validation of our model.

RESULTS

Of 9867 COPDGene participants with standard baseline data, 17.6% died over 10 years of follow-up, and 9074 of these participants had the full set of baseline predictors (standard plus 6-minute walk distance and computed tomography variables) available for full model fits. The average age of participants in the cohort was 60 for both men and women, and the average predicted 10-year mortality risk was 18% for women and 25% for men. Model time-integrated area under the receiver operating characteristic curve statistics demonstrated good predictive model accuracy (0.797 average), validated in the external cohort (0.756 average). Risk of mortality was impacted most by 6-minute walk distance, forced expiratory volume in 1 second and age, for both men and women.

CONCLUSIONS

Current and former smokers exhibited a wide range of mortality risk over a 10- year period. Our models can identify higher risk individuals who can be targeted for interventions to reduce risk of mortality, for participants with or without chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) using current Global initiative for obstructive Lung Disease (GOLD) criteria.

Deep neural network analyses of spirometry for structural phenotyping of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease

BACKGROUNDCurrently recommended traditional spirometry outputs do not reflect the relative contributions of emphysema and airway disease to airflow obstruction. We hypothesized that machine-learning algorithms can be trained on spirometry data to identify these structural phenotypes.METHODSParticipants enrolled in a large multicenter study (COPDGene) were included. The data points from expiratory flow-volume curves were trained using a deep-learning model to predict structural phenotypes of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) on CT, and results were compared with traditional spirometry metrics and an optimized random forest classifier. Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and weighted F-score were used to measure the discriminative accuracy of a fully convolutional neural network, random forest, and traditional spirometry metrics to phenotype CT as normal, emphysema-predominant (>5% emphysema), airway-predominant (Pi10 > median), and mixed phenotypes. Similar comparisons were made for the detection of functional small airway disease phenotype (>20% on parametric response mapping).RESULTSAmong 8980 individuals, the neural network was more accurate in discriminating predominant emphysema/airway phenotypes (AUC 0.80, 95%CI 0.79-0.81) compared with traditional measures of spirometry, FEV1/FVC (AUC 0.71, 95%CI 0.69-0.71), FEV1% predicted (AUC 0.70, 95%CI 0.68-0.71), and random forest classifier (AUC 0.78, 95%CI 0.77-0.79). The neural network was also more accurate in discriminating predominant emphysema/small airway phenotypes (AUC 0.91, 95%CI 0.90-0.92) compared with FEV1/FVC (AUC 0.80, 95%CI 0.78-0.82), FEV1% predicted (AUC 0.83, 95%CI 0.80-0.84), and with comparable accuracy with random forest classifier (AUC 0.90, 95%CI 0.88-0.91).CONCLUSIONSStructural phenotypes of COPD can be identified from spirometry using deep-learning and machine-learning approaches, demonstrating their potential to identify individuals for targeted therapies.TRIAL REGISTRATIONClinicalTrials.gov NCT00608764.FUNDINGThis study was supported by NIH grants K23 HL133438 and R21EB027891 and an American Thoracic Foundation 2018 Unrestricted Research Grant. The COPDGene study is supported by NIH grants NHLBI U01 HL089897 and U01 HL089856. The COPDGene study (NCT00608764) is also supported by the COPD Foundation through contributions made to an Industry Advisory Committee comprising AstraZeneca, Boehringer-Ingelheim, GlaxoSmithKline, Novartis, and Sunovion.

Effect of Zephyr Endobronchial Valves on Dyspnea, Activity Levels, and Quality of Life at One Year. Results from a Randomized Clinical Trial

Rationale: Bronchoscopic lung volume reduction with Zephyr Valves improves lung function, exercise tolerance, and quality of life of patients with hyperinflated emphysema and little to no collateral ventilation.Objectives:Post hoc analysis of patient-reported outcomes (PROs), including multidimensional measures of dyspnea, activity, and quality of life, in the LIBERATE (Lung Function Improvement after Bronchoscopic Lung Volume Reduction with Pulmonx Endobronchial Valves used in Treatment of Emphysema) study are reported.Methods: A total of 190 patients with severe heterogeneous emphysema and little to no collateral ventilation in the target lobe were randomized 2:1 to the Zephyr Valve or standard of care. Changes in PROs at 12 months in the two groups were compared: dyspnea with the Transitional Dyspnea Index (TDI), focal score; the Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease Assessment Test (CAT; breathlessness on hill/stairs); Borg; the EXAcerbations of Chronic pulmonary disease Tool-PRO, dyspnea domain; activity with the TDI, magnitude of task/effort/functional impairment, CAT (limited activities), and the St. George's Respiratory Questionnaire (SGRQ), activity domain; and psychosocial status with the SGRQ, impacts domain, and CAT (confidence and energy).Results: At 12 months, patients using the Zephyr Valve achieved statistically significant and clinically meaningful improvements in the SGRQ; CAT; and the TDI, focal score, compared with standard of care. Improvements in the SGRQ were driven by the impacts and activity domains (P < 0.05 and P < 0.001, respectively). Reduction in CAT was through improvements in breathlessness (P < 0.05), energy level (P < 0.05), activities (P < 0.001), and increased confidence when leaving home (P < 0.05). The TDI measures of effort, task, and functional impairment were uniformly improved (P < 0.001). The EXAcerbations of Chronic Pulmonary Disease Tool (EXACT)-PRO, dyspnea domain, was significantly improved in the Zephyr Valve group. Improvements correlated with changes in residual volume and residual volume/TLC ratio.Conclusions: Patients with severe hyperinflated emphysema achieving lung volume reductions with Zephyr Valves experience improvements in multidimensional scores for breathlessness, activity, and psychosocial parameters out to at least 12 months.Clinical trial registered with www.clinicaltrials.gov (NCT01796392).