A Risk Profile Using Simple Hematologic Parameters to Assess Benefits From Baricitinib in Patients Hospitalized With COVID-19: A Post Hoc Analysis of the Adaptive COVID-19 Treatment Trial-2

BACKGROUND

The ACTT risk profile, which was developed from ACTT-1 (Adaptive COVID-19 Treatment Trial-1), demonstrated that hospitalized patients with COVID-19 in the high-risk quartile (characterized by low absolute lymphocyte count [ALC], high absolute neutrophil count [ANC], and low platelet count at baseline) benefited most from treatment with the antiviral remdesivir. It is unknown which patient characteristics are associated with benefit from treatment with the immunomodulator baricitinib.

OBJECTIVE

To apply the ACTT risk profile to the ACTT-2 cohort to investigate potential baricitinib-related treatment effects by risk quartile.

DESIGN

Post hoc analysis of ACTT-2, a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial. (ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT04401579).

SETTING

Sixty-seven trial sites in 8 countries.

PARTICIPANTS

Adults hospitalized with COVID-19 (n = 999; 85% U.S. participants).

INTERVENTION

Baricitinib+remdesivir versus placebo+remdesivir.

MEASUREMENTS

Mortality, progression to invasive mechanical ventilation (IMV) or death, and recovery, all within 28 days; ALC, ANC, and platelet count trajectories.

RESULTS

In the high-risk quartile, baricitinib+remdesivir was associated with reduced risk for death (hazard ratio [HR], 0.38 [95% CI, 0.16 to 0.86]; P = 0.020), decreased progression to IMV or death (HR, 0.57 [CI, 0.35 to 0.93]; P = 0.024), and improved recovery rate (HR, 1.53 [CI, 1.16 to 2.02]; P = 0.002) compared with placebo+remdesivir. After 5 days, participants receiving baricitinib+remdesivir had significantly larger increases in ALC and significantly larger decreases in ANC compared with control participants, with the largest effects observed in the high-risk quartile.

LIMITATION

Secondary analysis of data collected before circulation of current SARS-CoV-2 variants.

CONCLUSION

The ACTT risk profile identifies a subgroup of hospitalized patients who benefit most from baricitinib treatment and captures a patient phenotype of treatment response to an immunomodulator and an antiviral. Changes in ALC and ANC trajectory suggest a mechanism whereby an immunomodulator limits severe COVID-19.

PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE

National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases.

Can incorporating genotyping data into efficacy estimators improve efficiency of early phase malaria vaccine trials?

BACKGROUND

Early phase malaria vaccine field trials typically measure malaria infection by PCR or thick blood smear microscopy performed on serially sampled blood. Vaccine efficacy (VE) is the proportion reduction in an endpoint due to vaccination and is often calculated as VEHR = 1-hazard ratio or VERR = 1-risk ratio. Genotyping information can distinguish different clones and distinguish multiple infections over time, potentially increasing statistical power. This paper investigates two alternative VE endpoints incorporating genotyping information: VEmolFOI, the vaccine-induced proportion reduction in incidence of new clones acquired over time, and VEC, the vaccine-induced proportion reduction in mean number of infecting clones per exposure.

METHODS

Power of VEmolFOI and VEC was compared to that of VEHR and VERR by simulations and analytic derivations, and the four VE methods were applied to three data sets: a Phase 3 trial of RTS,S malaria vaccine in 6912 African infants, a Phase 2 trial of PfSPZ Vaccine in 80 Burkina Faso adults, and a trial comparing Plasmodium vivax incidence in 466 Papua New Guinean children after receiving chloroquine + artemether lumefantrine with or without primaquine (as these VE methods can also quantify effects of other prevention measures). By destroying hibernating liver-stage P. vivax, primaquine reduces subsequent reactivations after treatment completion.

RESULTS

In the trial of RTS,S vaccine, a significantly reduced number of clones at first infection was observed, but this was not the case in trials of PfSPZ Vaccine or primaquine, although the PfSPZ trial lacked power to show a reduction. Resampling smaller data sets from the large RTS,S trial to simulate phase 2 trials showed modest power gains from VEC compared to VEHR for data like those from RTS,S, but VEC is less powerful than VEHR for trials in which the number of clones at first infection is not reduced. VEmolFOI was most powerful in model-based simulations, but only the primaquine trial collected enough serial samples to precisely estimate VEmolFOI. The primaquine VEmolFOI estimate decreased after most control arm liver-stage infections reactivated (which mathematically resembles a waning vaccine), preventing VEmolFOI from improving power.

CONCLUSIONS

The power gain from the genotyping methods depends on the context. Because input parameters for early phase power calculations are often uncertain, these estimators are not recommended as primary endpoints for small trials unless supported by targeted data analysis.

TRIAL REGISTRATIONS

NCT00866619, NCT02663700, NCT02143934.

Subthreshold opioid use disorder prevention (STOP) trial: a cluster randomized clinical trial: study design and methods

BACKGROUND

Preventing progression to moderate or severe opioid use disorder (OUD) among people who exhibit risky opioid use behavior that does not meet criteria for treatment with opioid agonists or antagonists (subthreshold OUD) is poorly understood. The Subthreshold Opioid Use Disorder Prevention (STOP) Trial is designed to study the efficacy of a collaborative care intervention to reduce risky opioid use and to prevent progression to moderate or severe OUD in adult primary care patients with subthreshold OUD.

METHODS

The STOP trial is a cluster randomized controlled trial, randomized at the PCP level, conducted in 5 distinct geographic sites. STOP tests the efficacy of the STOP intervention in comparison to enhanced usual care (EUC) in adult primary care patients with risky opioid use that does not meet criteria for moderate-severe OUD. The STOP intervention consists of (1) a practice-embedded nurse care manager (NCM) who provides patient participant education and supports primary care providers (PCPs) in engaging and monitoring patient-participants; (2) brief advice, delivered to patient participants by their PCP and/or prerecorded video message, about health risks of opioid misuse; and (3) up to 6 sessions of telephone health coaching to motivate and support behavior change. EUC consists of primary care treatment as usual, plus printed overdose prevention educational materials and an educational video on cancer screening. The primary outcome measure is self-reported number of days of risky (illicit or nonmedical) opioid use over 180 days, assessed monthly via text message using items from the Addiction Severity Index and the Current Opioid Misuse Measure. Secondary outcomes assess other substance use, mental health, quality of life, and healthcare utilization as well as PCP prescribing and monitoring behaviors. A mixed effects negative binomial model with a log link will be fit to estimate the difference in means between treatment and control groups using an intent-to-treat population.

DISCUSSION

Given a growing interest in interventions for the management of patients with risky opioid use, and the need for primary care-based interventions, this study potentially offers a blueprint for a feasible and effective approach to improving outcomes in this population.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

Clinicaltrials.gov, identifier NCT04218201, January 6, 2020.

Can incorporating genotyping data into efficacy estimators improve efficiency of early phase malaria vaccine trials?

Background

Early phase malaria vaccine field trials typically measure malaria infection by PCR or thick blood smear microscopy performed on serially sampled blood. Vaccine efficacy (VE) is the proportion reduction in an endpoint due to vaccination and is often calculated as V E H R = 1 - hazard ratio or V E R R = 1 - risk ratio. Genotyping information can distinguish different clones and distinguish multiple infections over time, potentially increasing statistical power. This paper investigates two alternative VE endpoints incorporating genotyping information: V E m o l F O I , the vaccine-induced proportion reduction in incidence of new clones acquired over time, and V E C , the vaccine-induced proportion reduction in mean number of infecting clones per exposure.

Methods

We used simulations and analytic derivations to compare power of these methods to V E H R and V E R R and applied them to three data sets: a Phase 3 trial of RTS,S malaria vaccine in 6912 African infants, a Phase 2 trial of PfSPZ Vaccine in 80 Burkina Faso adults, and a trial comparing Plasmodium vivax incidence in 466 Papua New Guinean children after receiving chloroquine + artemether lumefantrine with or without primaquine (as these VE methods can also quantify effects of other prevention measures). By destroying hibernating liver-stage P. vivax, primaquine reduces subsequent reactivations after treatment completion.

Results

The RTS,S vaccine significantly reduced the number of clones at first infection, but PfSPZ vaccine and primaquine did not. Resampling smaller data sets from the large RTS,S trial to simulate phase 2 trials showed modest power gains from V E C compared to V E H R for data like RTS,S, but V E C is less powerful than V E H R for vaccines which do not reduce the number of clones at first infection. V E m o l F O I was most powerful in model-based simulations, but only the primaquine trial collected enough serial samples to precisely estimate V E m o l F O I . The primaquine V E m o l F O I estimate decreased after most control arm liver-stage infections reactivated (which mathematically resembles a waning vaccine), preventing V E m o l F O I from improving power.

Conclusions

The power gain from the genotyping methods depends on the context. Because input parameters for early phase power calculations are often uncertain, we recommend against these estimators as primary endpoints for small trials unless supported by targeted data analysis.

Trial registrations

NCT00866619, NCT02663700, NCT02143934.

A randomized controlled trial showing safety and efficacy of a whole sporozoite vaccine against endemic malaria

A highly effective malaria vaccine remains elusive despite decades of research. Plasmodium falciparum sporozoite vaccine (PfSPZ Vaccine), a metabolically active, nonreplicating, whole parasite vaccine demonstrated safety and vaccine efficacy (VE) against endemic P. falciparum for 6 months in Malian adults receiving a five-dose regimen. Safety, immunogenicity, and VE of a three-dose regimen were assessed in adults in Balonghin, Burkina Faso in a two-component study: an open-label dose escalation trial with 32 participants followed by a double-blind, randomized, placebo-controlled trial (RCT) with 80 participants randomized to receive three doses of 2.7 × 10⁶ PfSPZ (N = 39) or normal saline (N = 41) just before malaria season. To clear parasitemia, artesunate monotherapy was administered before first and last vaccinations. Thick blood smear microscopy was performed on samples collected during illness and every 4 weeks for 72 weeks after last vaccinations, including two 6-month malaria transmission seasons. Safety outcomes were assessed in all 80 participants who received at least one dose and VE for 79 participants who received three vaccinations. Myalgia was the only symptom that differed between groups. VE (1 - risk ratio; primary VE endpoint) was 38% at 6 months (P = 0.017) and 15% at 18 months (0.078). VE (1 - hazard ratio) was 48% and 46% at 6 and 18 months (P = 0.061 and 0.018). Two weeks after the last dose, antibodies to P. falciparum circumsporozoite protein and PfSPZ were higher in protected versus unprotected vaccinees. A three-dose regimen of PfSPZ Vaccine demonstrated safety and efficacy against malaria infection in malaria-experienced adults.

Temporal Improvements in COVID-19 Outcomes for Hospitalized Adults: A Post Hoc Observational Study of Remdesivir Group Participants in the Adaptive COVID-19 Treatment Trial

BACKGROUND

The COVID-19 standard of care (SOC) evolved rapidly during 2020 and 2021, but its cumulative effect over time is unclear.

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate whether recovery and mortality improved as SOC evolved, using data from ACTT (Adaptive COVID-19 Treatment Trial).

DESIGN

ACTT is a series of phase 3, randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trials that evaluated COVID-19 therapeutics from February 2020 through May 2021. ACTT-1 compared remdesivir plus SOC to placebo plus SOC, and in ACTT-2 and ACTT-3, remdesivir plus SOC was the control group. This post hoc analysis compared recovery and mortality between these comparable sequential cohorts of patients who received remdesivir plus SOC, adjusting for baseline characteristics with propensity score weighting. The analysis was repeated for participants in ACTT-3 and ACTT-4 who received remdesivir plus dexamethasone plus SOC. Trends in SOC that could explain outcome improvements were analyzed. (ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT04280705 [ACTT-1], NCT04401579 [ACTT-2], NCT04492475 [ACTT-3], and NCT04640168 [ACTT-4]).

SETTING

94 hospitals in 10 countries (86% U.S. participants).

PARTICIPANTS

Adults hospitalized with COVID-19.

INTERVENTION

SOC.

MEASUREMENTS

28-day mortality and recovery.

RESULTS

Although outcomes were better in ACTT-2 than in ACTT-1, adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) were close to 1 (HR for recovery, 1.04 [95% CI, 0.92 to 1.17]; HR for mortality, 0.90 [CI, 0.56 to 1.40]). Comparable patients were less likely to be intubated in ACTT-2 than in ACTT-1 (odds ratio, 0.75 [CI, 0.53 to 0.97]), and hydroxychloroquine use decreased. Outcomes improved from ACTT-2 to ACTT-3 (HR for recovery, 1.43 [CI, 1.24 to 1.64]; HR for mortality, 0.45 [CI, 0.21 to 0.97]). Potential explanatory factors (SOC trends, case surges, and variant trends) were similar between ACTT-2 and ACTT-3, except for increased dexamethasone use (11% to 77%). Outcomes were similar in ACTT-3 and ACTT-4. Antibiotic use decreased gradually across all stages.

LIMITATION

Unmeasured confounding.

CONCLUSION

Changes in patient composition explained improved outcomes from ACTT-1 to ACTT-2 but not from ACTT-2 to ACTT-3, suggesting improved SOC. These results support excluding nonconcurrent controls from analysis of platform trials in rapidly changing therapeutic areas.

PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE

National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases.

PfSPZ-CVac malaria vaccine demonstrates safety among malaria-experienced adults: A randomized, controlled phase 1 trial

BACKGROUND

Plasmodium falciparum (Pf) Sporozoite (SPZ) Chemoprophylaxis Vaccine (PfSPZ-CVac) involves concurrently administering infectious PfSPZ and malaria drug, often chloroquine (CQ), to kill liver-emerging parasites. PfSPZ-CVac (CQ) protected 100% of malaria-naïve participants against controlled human malaria infection. We investigated the hypothesis that PfSPZ-CVac (CQ) is safe and efficacious against seasonal, endemic Pf in malaria-exposed adults.

METHODS

Healthy 18-45 year olds were enrolled in a double-blind, placebo-controlled trial in Bougoula-Hameau, Mali, randomized 1:1 to 2.048 × 10⁵ PfSPZ (PfSPZ Challenge) or normal saline administered by direct venous inoculation at 0, 4, 8 weeks. Syringes were prepared by pharmacy staff using online computer-based enrolment that randomized allocations. Clinical team and participant masking was assured by identical appearance of vaccine and placebo. Participants received chloroquine 600mg before first vaccination, 10 weekly 300mg doses during vaccination, then seven daily doses of artesunate 200mg before 24-week surveillance during the rainy season. Safety outcomes were solicited adverse events (AEs) and related unsolicited AEs within 12 days of injections, and all serious AEs. Pf infection was detected by thick blood smears performed every four weeks and during febrile illness over 48 weeks. Primary vaccine efficacy (VE) endpoint was time to infection at 24 weeks. NCT02996695.

FINDINGS

62 participants were enrolled in April/May 2017. Proportions of participants experiencing at least one solicited systemic AE were similar between treatment arms: 6/31 (19.4%, 95%CI 9.2-36.3) of PfSPZ-CVac recipients versus 7/31 (22.6%, 95%CI 29.2-62.2) of controls (p value = 1.000). Two/31 (6%) in each group reported related, unsolicited AEs. One unrelated death occurred. Of 59 receiving 3 immunizations per protocol, fewer vaccinees (16/29, 55.2%) became infected than controls (22/30, 73.3%). VE was 33.6% by hazard ratio (p = 0.21, 95%CI -27·9, 65·5) and 24.8% by risk ratio (p = 0.10, 95%CI -4·8, 54·3). Antibody responses to PfCSP were poor; 28% of vaccinees sero-converted.

INTERPRETATION

PfSPZ-CVac (CQ) was well-tolerated. The tested dosing regimen failed to significantly protect against Pf infection in this very high transmission setting.

FUNDING

U.S. National Institutes of Health, Sanaria.

REGISTRATION NUMBER

ClinicalTrials.gov identifier (NCT number): NCT02996695.

Design of an observational multi-country cohort study to assess immunogenicity of multiple vaccine platforms (InVITE)

In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, COVID-19 vaccines have been developed, and the World Health Oraganization (WHO) has granted emergency use listing to multiple vaccines. Studies of vaccine immunogenicity data from implementing COVID-19 vaccines by national immunization programs in single studies spanning multiple countries and continents are limited but critically needed to answer public health questions on vaccines, such as comparing immune responses to different vaccines and among different populations.

EVITA Dengue: a cluster-randomized controlled trial to EValuate the efficacy of Wolbachia-InfecTed Aedes aegypti mosquitoes in reducing the incidence of Arboviral infection in Brazil

Background

Arboviruses transmitted by Aedes aegypti including dengue, Zika, and chikungunya are a major global health problem, with over 2.5 billion at risk for dengue alone. There are no licensed antivirals for these infections, and safe and effective vaccines are not yet widely available. Thus, prevention of arbovirus transmission by vector modification is a novel approach being pursued by multiple researchers. However, the field needs high-quality evidence derived from randomized, controlled trials upon which to base the implementation and maintenance of vector control programs. Here, we report the EVITA Dengue trial design (DMID 17-0111), which assesses the efficacy in decreasing arbovirus transmission of an innovative approach developed by the World Mosquito Program for vector modification of Aedes mosquitoes by Wolbachia pipientis.

Methods

DMID 17-0111 is a cluster-randomized trial in Belo Horizonte, Brazil, with clusters defined by primary school catchment areas. Clusters (n = 58) will be randomized 1:1 to intervention (release of Wolbachia-infected Aedes aegypti mosquitoes) vs. control (no release). Standard vector control activities (i.e., insecticides and education campaigns for reduction of mosquito breeding sites) will continue as per current practice in the municipality. Participants (n = 3480, 60 per cluster) are children aged 6–11 years enrolled in the cluster-defining school and living within the cluster boundaries who will undergo annual serologic surveillance for arboviral infection. The primary objective is to compare sero-incidence of arboviral infection between arms.

Discussion

DMID 17-0111 aims to determine the efficacy of Wolbachia-infected mosquito releases in reducing human infections by arboviruses transmitted by Aedes aegypti and will complement the mounting evidence for this method from large-scale field releases and ongoing trials. The trial also represents a critical step towards robustness and rigor for how vector control methods are assessed, including the simultaneous measurement and correlation of entomologic and epidemiologic outcomes. Data from this trial will inform further the development of novel vector control methods.

Trial registration

ClinicalTrials.govNCT04514107. Registered on 17 August 2020

Primary sponsor: National Institute of Health, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s13063-022-05997-4.

Using social contact data to improve the overall effect estimate of a cluster-randomized influenza vaccination program in Senegal

This study estimates the overall effect of two influenza vaccination programs consecutively administered in a cluster-randomized trial in western Senegal over the course of two influenza seasons from 2009-2011. We apply cutting-edge methodology combining social contact data with infection data to reduce bias in estimation arising from contamination between clusters. Our time-varying estimates reveal a reduction in seasonal influenza from the intervention and a nonsignificant increase in H1N1 pandemic influenza. We estimate an additive change in overall cumulative incidence (which was 6.13% in the control arm) of -0.68 percentage points during Year 1 of the study (95% CI: -2.53, 1.18). When H1N1 pandemic infections were excluded from analysis, the estimated change was -1.45 percentage points and was significant (95% CI, -2.81, -0.08). Because cross-cluster contamination was low (0-3% of contacts for most villages), an estimator assuming no contamination was only slightly attenuated (-0.65 percentage points). These findings are encouraging for studies carefully designed to minimize spillover. Further work is needed to estimate contamination - and its effect on estimation - in a variety of settings.

Social contact patterns and implications for infectious disease transmission: a systematic review and meta-analysis of contact surveys

Background:

Transmission of respiratory pathogens such as SARS-CoV-2 depends on patterns of contact and mixing across populations. Understanding this is crucial to predict pathogen spread and the effectiveness of control efforts. Most analyses of contact patterns to date have focused on high-income settings.

Methods:

Here, we conduct a systematic review and individual-participant meta-analysis of surveys carried out in low- and middle-income countries and compare patterns of contact in these settings to surveys previously carried out in high-income countries. Using individual-level data from 28,503 participants and 413,069 contacts across 27 surveys, we explored how contact characteristics (number, location, duration, and whether physical) vary across income settings.

Results:

Contact rates declined with age in high- and upper-middle-income settings, but not in low-income settings, where adults aged 65+ made similar numbers of contacts as younger individuals and mixed with all age groups. Across all settings, increasing household size was a key determinant of contact frequency and characteristics, with low-income settings characterised by the largest, most intergenerational households. A higher proportion of contacts were made at home in low-income settings, and work/school contacts were more frequent in high-income strata. We also observed contrasting effects of gender across income strata on the frequency, duration, and type of contacts individuals made.

Conclusions:

These differences in contact patterns between settings have material consequences for both spread of respiratory pathogens and the effectiveness of different non-pharmaceutical interventions.

Funding:

This work is primarily being funded by joint Centre funding from the UK Medical Research Council and DFID (MR/R015600/1).

Infectious diseases, particularly those caused by airborne pathogens like SARS-CoV-2, spread by social contact, and understanding how people mix is critical in controlling outbreaks. To explore these patterns, researchers typically carry out large contact surveys. Participants are asked for personal information (such as gender, age and occupation), as well as details of recent social contacts, usually those that happened in the last 24 hours. This information includes, the age and gender of the contact, where the interaction happened, how long it lasted, and whether it involved physical touch.

These kinds of surveys help scientists to predict how infectious diseases might spread. But there is a problem: most of the data come from high-income countries, and there is evidence to suggest that social contact patterns differ between places. Therefore, data from these countries might not be useful for predicting how infections spread in lower-income regions.

Here, Mousa et al. have collected and combined data from 27 contact surveys carried out before the COVID-19 pandemic to see how baseline social interactions vary between high- and lower-income settings. The comparison revealed that, in higher-income countries, the number of daily contacts people made decreased with age. But, in lower-income countries, younger and older individuals made similar numbers of contacts and mixed with all age groups.

In higher-income countries, more contacts happened at work or school, while in low-income settings, more interactions happened at home and people were also more likely to live in larger, intergenerational households. Mousa et al. also found that gender affected how long contacts lasted and whether they involved physical contact, both of which are key risk factors for transmitting airborne pathogens.

These findings can help researchers to predict how infectious diseases might spread in different settings. They can also be used to assess how effective non-medical restrictions, like shielding of the elderly and workplace closures, will be at reducing transmissions in different parts of the world.

Social Contact Patterns and Implications for Infectious Disease Transmission: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of Contact Surveys

BACKGROUND

Transmission of respiratory pathogens such as SARS-CoV-2 depends on patterns of contact and mixing across populations. Understanding this is crucial to predict pathogen spread and the effectiveness of control efforts. Most analyses of contact patterns to date have focussed on high-income settings.

METHODS

Here, we conduct a systematic review and individual-participant meta-analysis of surveys carried out in low- and middle-income countries and compare patterns of contact in these settings to surveys previously carried out in high-income countries. Using individual-level data from 28,503 participants and 413,069 contacts across 27 surveys we explored how contact characteristics (number, location, duration and whether physical) vary across income settings.

RESULTS

Contact rates declined with age in high- and upper-middle-income settings, but not in low-income settings, where adults aged 65+ made similar numbers of contacts as younger individuals and mixed with all age-groups. Across all settings, increasing household size was a key determinant of contact frequency and characteristics, but low-income settings were characterised by the largest, most intergenerational households. A higher proportion of contacts were made at home in low-income settings, and work/school contacts were more frequent in high-income strata. We also observed contrasting effects of gender across income-strata on the frequency, duration and type of contacts individuals made.

CONCLUSIONS

These differences in contact patterns between settings have material consequences for both spread of respiratory pathogens, as well as the effectiveness of different non-pharmaceutical interventions.

FUNDING

This work is primarily being funded by joint Centre funding from the UK Medical Research Council and DFID (MR/R015600/1).

Dismantling the Fragility Index: A demonstration of statistical reasoning

The Fragility Index has been introduced as a complement to the P-value to summarize the statistical strength of evidence for a trial's result. The Fragility Index (FI) is defined in trials with two equal treatment group sizes, with a dichotomous or time-to-event outcome, and is calculated as the minimum number of conversions from nonevent to event in the treatment group needed to shift the P-value from Fisher's exact test over the .05 threshold. As the index lacks a well-defined probability motivation, its interpretation is challenging for consumers. We clarify what the FI may be capturing by separately considering two scenarios: (a) what the FI is capturing mathematically when the probability model is correct and (b) how well the FI captures violations of probability model assumptions. By calculating the posterior probability of a treatment effect, we show that when the probability model is correct, the FI inappropriately penalizes small trials for using fewer events than larger trials to achieve the same significance level. The analysis shows that for experiments conducted without bias, the FI promotes an incorrect intuition of probability, which has not been noted elsewhere and must be dispelled. We illustrate shortcomings of the FI's ability to quantify departures from model assumptions and contextualize the FI concept within current debate around the null hypothesis significance testing paradigm. Altogether, the FI creates more confusion than it resolves and does not promote statistical thinking. We recommend against its use. Instead, sensitivity analyses are recommended to quantify and communicate robustness of trial results.

Dose-Dependent Infectivity of Aseptic, Purified, Cryopreserved Plasmodium falciparum 7G8 Sporozoites in Malaria-Naive Adults

Direct venous inoculation of 3.2 × 103 aseptic, purified, cryopreserved, vialed Plasmodium falciparum (Pf) strain NF54 sporozoites, PfSPZ Challenge (NF54), has been used for controlled human malaria infection (CHMI) in the United States, 4 European countries, and 6 African countries. In nonimmune adults, this results in 100% infection rates. We conducted a double-blind, randomized, dose-escalation study to assess the infectivity of the 7G8 clone of Pf (PfSPZ Challenge [7G8]). Results showed dose-dependent infectivity from 43% for 8 × 102 PfSPZ to 100% for 4.8 × 103 PfSPZ. PfSPZ Challenge (7G8) will allow for more complete assessment by CHMI of antimalarial vaccines and drugs.

A phase 1 study of the safety, reactogenicity, and immunogenicity of a Schistosoma mansoni vaccine with or without glucopyranosyl lipid A aqueous formulation (GLA-AF) in healthy adults from a non-endemic area

BACKGROUND

Schistosomiasis caused by Schistosoma mansoni (Sm) is a chronic, debilitating and potentially deadly neglected tropical disease. The licensure of a vaccine to prevent schistosomiasis would represent a major breakthrough in public health.

METHODS

The safety and immunogenicity of a candidate Sm vaccine were assessed in this phase I, double-blind, dose-escalation trial. Seventy-two healthy Sm-naïve 18-50 year olds were randomized to receive 3 doses ∼ 8 weeks apart of saline placebo, or 10 µg, 30 µg, or 100 µg of recombinant Sm-Tetraspanin-2 vaccine formulated on aluminum hydroxide adjuvant (Sm-TSP-2/Al) with or without 5 µg of glucopyranosyl lipid A aqueous formulation (GLA-AF). Clinical and serologic responses were assessed for 1 year after dose 3.

RESULTS

Vaccines were safe and well-tolerated. The most common reactions were injection site tenderness and pain, and headache and fatigue. Tenderness and pain were more frequent in groups receiving vaccine with GLA-AF than placebo (p = 0.0036 and p = 0.0014, respectively). Injection site reactions among those given Sm-TSP-2/Al with GLA-AF lasted 1.22 and 1.33 days longer than those receiving Sm-TSP-2/Al without GLA-AF or placebo (p < 0.001 for both). Dose- and adjuvant-related increases in serum IgG against Sm-TSP-2 were observed. Peak IgG levels occurred 14 days after dose 3. Seroresponse frequencies were low among recipients of Sm-TSP-2/Al without GLA-AF, but higher among subjects receiving 30 µg or 100 µg of Sm-TSP-2/Al with GLA-AF. More seroresponses were observed among those given 30 µg or 100 µg of Sm-TSP-2/Al with GLA-AF compared to placebo (p = 0.023 and p < 0.001, respectively). Seroresponse frequencies were 0%, 30%, 50%, and 89%, respectively, among those given placebo, or 10 µg, 30 µg or 100 µg of Sm-TSP-2/Al with GLA-AF, suggesting a dose-response relationship for Sm-TSP-2/Al with GLA-AF (p = 0.0001).

CONCLUSIONS

Sm-TSP-2/Al with or without GLA-AF was safe and well tolerated in a Sm-naïve population. A vaccine like the one under development may represent our best hope to eliminating this neglected tropical disease.

Networks of face-to-face social contacts in Niakhar, Senegal

We present the first analysis of face-to-face contact network data from Niakhar, Senegal. Participants in a cluster-randomized influenza vaccine trial were interviewed about their contact patterns when they reported symptoms during their weekly household surveillance visit. We employ a negative binomial model to estimate effects of covariates on contact degree. We estimate the mean contact degree for asymptomatic Niakhar residents to be 16.5 (95% C.I. 14.3, 18.7) in the morning and 14.8 in the afternoon (95% C.I. 12.7, 16.9). We estimate that symptomatic people make 10% fewer contacts than asymptomatic people (95% C.I. 5%, 16%; p = 0.006), and those aged 0-5 make 33% fewer contacts than adults (95% C.I. 29%, 37%; p < 0.001). By explicitly modelling the partial rounding pattern observed in our data, we make inference for both the underlying (true) distribution of contacts as well as for the reported distribution. We created an estimator for homophily by compound (household) membership and estimate that 48% of contacts by symptomatic people are made to their own compound members in the morning (95% CI, 45%, 52%) and 60% in the afternoon/evening (95% CI, 56%, 64%). We did not find a significant effect of symptom status on compound homophily. We compare our findings to those from other countries and make design recommendations for future surveys.

Chloroquine as weekly chemoprophylaxis or intermittent treatment to prevent malaria in pregnancy in Malawi: a randomised controlled trial

BACKGROUND

Sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine resistance threatens efficacy of intermittent preventive treatment of malaria during pregnancy, and alternative regimens need to be identified. With the return of chloroquine efficacy in southern Africa, we postulated that chloroquine either as an intermittent therapy or as weekly chemoprophylaxis would be more efficacious than intermittent sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine for prevention of malaria in pregnancy and associated maternal and newborn adverse outcomes.

METHODS

We did an open-label, single-centre, randomised controlled trial at Ndirande Health Centre, Blantyre, in southern Malawi. We enrolled pregnant women (first or second pregnancy) at 20-28 weeks' gestation who were HIV negative. Participants were randomly assigned in a 1:1:1 ratio using a computer-generated list to either intermittent sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine (two doses of 1500 mg sulfadoxine and 75 mg pyrimethamine, 4 weeks apart), intermittent chloroquine (two doses of 600 mg on day 1, 600 mg on day 2, and 300 mg on day 3), or chloroquine prophylaxis (600 mg on day 1 then 300 mg every week). The primary endpoint was placental malaria in the modified intent-to-treat population, which consisted of participants who contributed placental histopathology data at birth. Secondary outcomes included clinical malaria, maternal anaemia, low birthweight, and safety. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT01443130.

FINDINGS

Between February, 2012, and May, 2014, we enrolled and randomly allocated 900 women, of whom 765 contributed histopathological data and were included in the primary analysis. 108 (14%) women had placental malaria, which was lower than the anticipated prevalence of placental malaria infection. Protection from placental malaria was not improved by chloroquine as either prophylaxis (30 [12%] of 259 had positive histopathology; relative risk [RR] 0·75, 95% CI 0·48-1·17) or intermittent therapy (39 [15%] of 253; RR 1·00, 0·67-1·50) compared with intermittent sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine (39 [15%] of 253). In protocol-specified analyses adjusted for maternal age, gestational age at enrolment, bednet use the night before enrolment, anaemia at enrolment, and malaria infection at enrolment, women taking chloroquine as prophylaxis had 34% lower placental infections than did those allocated intermittent sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine (RR 0·66, 95% CI 0·46-0·95). Clinical malaria was reported in nine women assigned intermittent sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine, four allocated intermittent chloroquine (p=0·26), and two allocated chloroquine prophylaxis (p=0·063). Maternal anaemia was noted in five women assigned intermittent sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine, 15 allocated intermittent chloroquine (p=0·038), and six assigned chloroquine prophylaxis (p>0·99). Low birthweight was recorded for 31 babies born to women allocated intermittent sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine, 29 assigned intermittent chloroquine (p=0·78), and 41 allocated chloroquine prophylaxis (p=0·28). Four women assigned intermittent sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine had adverse events possibly related to study product compared with 94 women allocated intermittent chloroquine (p<0·0001) and 26 allocated chloroquine prophylaxis (p<0·0001). Three women had severe or life-threatening adverse events related to study product, of whom all were assigned intermittent chloroquine (p=0·25).

INTERPRETATION

Chloroquine administered as intermittent therapy did not provide better protection from malaria and related adverse effects compared with intermittent sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine in a setting of high resistance to sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine. Chloroquine chemoprophylaxis might provide benefit in protecting against malaria during pregnancy, but studies with larger sample sizes are needed to confirm these results.

FUNDING

US National Institutes of Health.

Modeling workplace contact networks: The effects of organizational structure, architecture, and reporting errors on epidemic predictions

Face-to-face social contacts are potentially important transmission routes for acute respiratory infections, and understanding the contact network can improve our ability to predict, contain, and control epidemics. Although workplaces are important settings for infectious disease transmission, few studies have collected workplace contact data and estimated workplace contact networks. We use contact diaries, architectural distance measures, and institutional structures to estimate social contact networks within a Swiss research institute. Some contact reports were inconsistent, indicating reporting errors. We adjust for this with a latent variable model, jointly estimating the true (unobserved) network of contacts and duration-specific reporting probabilities. We find that contact probability decreases with distance, and that research group membership, role, and shared projects are strongly predictive of contact patterns. Estimated reporting probabilities were low only for 0-5 min contacts. Adjusting for reporting error changed the estimate of the duration distribution, but did not change the estimates of covariate effects and had little effect on epidemic predictions. Our epidemic simulation study indicates that inclusion of network structure based on architectural and organizational structure data can improve the accuracy of epidemic forecasting models.

A penalized likelihood approach to estimate within-household contact networks from egocentric data

Acute infectious diseases are transmitted over networks of social contacts. Epidemic models are used to predict the spread of emergent pathogens and compare intervention strategies. Many of these models assume equal probability of contact within mixing groups (homes, schools, etc.), but little work has inferred the actual contact network, which may influence epidemic estimates. We develop a penalized likelihood method to infer contact networks within households, a key area for disease transmission. Using egocentric surveys of contact behavior in Belgium, we estimate within-household contact networks for six different age compositions. Our estimates show dependency in contact behavior and vary substantively by age composition, with fewer contacts occurring in older households. Our results are relevant for epidemic models used to make policy recommendations.

ESTIMATING WITHIN-SCHOOL CONTACT NETWORKS TO UNDERSTAND INFLUENZA TRANSMISSION

Many epidemic models approximate social contact behavior by assuming random mixing within mixing groups (e.g., homes, schools, and workplaces). The effect of more realistic social network structure on estimates of epidemic parameters is an open area of exploration. We develop a detailed statistical model to estimate the social contact network within a high school using friendship network data and a survey of contact behavior. Our contact network model includes classroom structure, longer durations of contacts to friends than non-friends and more frequent contacts with friends, based on reports in the contact survey. We performed simulation studies to explore which network structures are relevant to influenza transmission. These studies yield two key findings. First, we found that the friendship network structure important to the transmission process can be adequately represented by a dyad-independent exponential random graph model (ERGM). This means that individual-level sampled data is sufficient to characterize the entire friendship network. Second, we found that contact behavior was adequately represented by a static rather than dynamic contact network. We then compare a targeted antiviral prophylaxis intervention strategy and a grade closure intervention strategy under random mixing and network-based mixing. We find that random mixing overestimates the effect of targeted antiviral prophylaxis on the probability of an epidemic when the probability of transmission in 10 minutes of contact is less than 0.004 and underestimates it when this transmission probability is greater than 0.004. We found the same pattern for the final size of an epidemic, with a threshold transmission probability of 0.005. We also find random mixing overestimates the effect of a grade closure intervention on the probability of an epidemic and final size for all transmission probabilities. Our findings have implications for policy recommendations based on models assuming random mixing, and can inform further development of network-based models.

ESTIMATING WITHIN-HOUSEHOLD CONTACT NETWORKS FROM EGOCENTRIC DATA

Acute respiratory diseases are transmitted over networks of social contacts. Large-scale simulation models are used to predict epidemic dynamics and evaluate the impact of various interventions, but the contact behavior in these models is based on simplistic and strong assumptions which are not informed by survey data. These assumptions are also used for estimating transmission measures such as the basic reproductive number and secondary attack rates. Development of methodology to infer contact networks from survey data could improve these models and estimation methods. We contribute to this area by developing a model of within-household social contacts and using it to analyze the Belgian POLYMOD data set, which contains detailed diaries of social contacts in a 24-hour period. We model dependency in contact behavior through a latent variable indicating which household members are at home. We estimate age-specific probabilities of being at home and age-specific probabilities of contact conditional on two members being at home. Our results differ from the standard random mixing assumption. In addition, we find that the probability that all members contact each other on a given day is fairly low: 0.49 for households with two 0-5 year olds and two 19-35 year olds, and 0.36 for households with two 12-18 year olds and two 36+ year olds. We find higher contact rates in households with 2-3 members, helping explain the higher influenza secondary attack rates found in households of this size.

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