Implications of a Race Term in GFR Estimates Used to Predict AKI After Coronary Intervention

BACKGROUND

The prediction of mortality, bleeding, and acute kidney injury (AKI) after percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) traditionally relied on race-based estimates of the glomerular filtration rate (GFR). Recently, race agnostic equations were developed to advance equity.

OBJECTIVES

The authors aimed to compare the accuracy and implications of various GFR equations when used to predict AKI after PCI.

METHODS

Using the National Cardiovascular Data Registry (NCDR) CathPCI data set, we identified patients undergoing PCI in 2020 and calculated their AKI risk using the 2014 NCDR AKI risk model. We created 4 AKI models per patient for each estimate of baseline renal function: the traditional GFR equation with a race term, 2 GFR equations without a race term, and serum creatinine alone. We then compared each model's performance predicting AKI.

RESULTS

Among 455,806 PCI encounters, the median age was 67 years, 32.2% were women, and 8.5% were Black. In Black patients, risk models without a race term were better calibrated than models incorporating an equation with a race term (intercept: -0.01 vs 0.15). Race-agnostic models reclassified 6% of Black patients into higher-risk categories, potentially prompting appropriate mitigation efforts. However, even with a race-agnostic model, AKI occurred in Black patients 18% more often than expected, which was not explained by captured patient or procedural characteristics.

CONCLUSIONS

Incorporating a GFR estimate without a Black race term into the NCDR AKI risk prediction model yielded more accurate prediction of AKI risk for Black patients, which has important implications for reducing disparities and benchmarking.

Contemporary Methods for Predicting Acute Kidney Injury After Coronary Intervention

BACKGROUND

Acute kidney injury (AKI) is the most common complication after percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI). Accurately estimating patients' risks not only creates a means of benchmarking performance but can also be used prospectively to inform practice.

OBJECTIVES

The authors sought to update the 2014 National Cardiovascular Data Registry (NCDR) AKI risk model to provide contemporary estimates of AKI risk after PCI to further improve care.

METHODS

Using the NCDR CathPCI Registry, we identified all 2020 PCIs, excluding those on dialysis or lacking postprocedural creatinine. The cohort was randomly split into a 70% derivation cohort and a 30% validation cohort, and logistic regression models were built to predict AKI (an absolute increase of 0.3 mg/dL in creatinine or a 50% increase from preprocedure baseline) and AKI requiring dialysis. Bedside risk scores were created to facilitate prospective use in clinical care, along with threshold contrast doses to reduce AKI. We tested model calibration and discrimination in the validation cohort.

RESULTS

Among 455,806 PCI procedures, the median age was 67 years (IQR: 58.0-75.0 years), 68.8% were men, and 86.8% were White. The incidence of AKI and new dialysis was 7.2% and 0.7%, respectively. Baseline renal function and variables associated with clinical instability were the strongest predictors of AKI. The final AKI model included 13 variables, with a C-statistic of 0.798 and excellent calibration (intercept = -0.03 and slope = 0.97) in the validation cohort.

CONCLUSIONS

The updated NCDR AKI risk model further refines AKI prediction after PCI, facilitating enhanced clinical care, benchmarking, and quality improvement.

The potential roles of galectin-3 in AKI and CKD

Acute kidney injury (AKI) is a common condition with high morbidity and mortality, and is associated with the development and progression of chronic kidney disease (CKD). The beta-galactoside binding protein galectin-3 (Gal3), with its proinflammatory and profibrotic properties, has been implicated in the development of both AKI and CKD. Serum Gal3 levels are elevated in patients with AKI and CKD, and elevated Gal3 is associated with progression of CKD. In addition, Gal3 is associated with the incidence of AKI among critically ill patients, and blocking Gal3 in murine models of sepsis and ischemia-reperfusion injury results in significantly lower AKI incidence and mortality. Here we review the role of Gal3 in the pathophysiology of AKI and CKD, as well as the therapeutic potential of targeting Gal3.

Effects of Renal Denervation vs Sham in Resistant Hypertension After Medication Escalation: Prespecified Analysis at 6 Months of the RADIANCE-HTN TRIO Randomized Clinical Trial

Importance

Although early trials of endovascular renal denervation (RDN) for patients with resistant hypertension (RHTN) reported inconsistent results, ultrasound RDN (uRDN) was found to decrease blood pressure (BP) vs sham at 2 months in patients with RHTN taking stable background medications in the Study of the ReCor Medical Paradise System in Clinical Hypertension (RADIANCE-HTN TRIO) trial.

Objectives

To report the prespecified analysis of the persistence of the BP effects and safety of uRDN vs sham at 6 months in conjunction with escalating antihypertensive medications.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This randomized, sham-controlled, clinical trial with outcome assessors and patients blinded to treatment assignment, enrolled patients from March 11, 2016, to March 13, 2020. This was an international, multicenter study conducted in the US and Europe. Participants with daytime ambulatory BP of 135/85 mm Hg or higher after 4 weeks of single-pill triple-combination treatment (angiotensin-receptor blocker, calcium channel blocker, and thiazide diuretic) with estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) of 40 mL/min/1.73 m2 or greater were randomly assigned to uRDN or sham with medications unchanged through 2 months. From 2 to 5 months, if monthly home BP was 135/85 mm Hg or higher, standardized stepped-care antihypertensive treatment starting with aldosterone antagonists was initiated under blinding to treatment assignment.

Interventions

uRDN vs sham procedure in conjunction with added medications to target BP control.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Six-month change in medications, change in daytime ambulatory systolic BP, change in home systolic BP adjusted for baseline BP and medications, and safety.

Results

A total of 65 of 69 participants in the uRDN group and 64 of 67 participants in the sham group (mean [SD] age, 52.4 [8.3] years; 104 male [80.6%]) with a mean (SD) eGFR of 81.5 (22.8) mL/min/1.73 m2 had 6-month daytime ambulatory BP measurements. Fewer medications were added in the uRDN group (mean [SD], 0.7 [1.0] medications) vs sham (mean [SD], 1.1 [1.1] medications; P = .045) and fewer patients in the uRDN group received aldosterone antagonists at 6 months (26 of 65 [40.0%] vs 39 of 64 [60.9%]; P = .02). Despite less intensive standardized stepped-care antihypertensive treatment, mean (SD) daytime ambulatory BP at 6 months was 138.3 (15.1) mm Hg with uRDN vs 139.0 (14.3) mm Hg with sham (additional decreases of -2.4 [16.6] vs -7.0 [16.7] mm Hg from month 2, respectively), whereas home SBP was lowered to a greater extent with uRDN by 4.3 mm Hg (95% CI, 0.5-8.1 mm Hg; P = .03) in a mixed model adjusting for baseline and number of medications. Adverse events were infrequent and similar between groups.

Conclusions and Relevance

In this study, in patients with RHTN initially randomly assigned to uRDN or a sham procedure and who had persistent elevation of BP at 2 months after the procedure, standardized stepped-care antihypertensive treatment escalation resulted in similar BP reduction in both groups at 6 months, with fewer additional medications required in the uRDN group.

Trial Registration

ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT02649426.

Effects of dapagliflozin on cardiovascular and kidney events by baseline eGFR and UACR in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus: a patient-level pooled analysis of DECLARE-TIMI 58 and DAPA-CKD trials

Background

The sodium glucose co-transporter 2 (SGLT2) inhibitor dapagliflozin reduced the risk of hospitalization for heart failure (HHF) or cardiovascular death (CVD) and the risk of kidney events in patients type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) and high cardiovascular risk or chronic kidney disease in the DECLARE-TIMI 58 and DAPA-CKD trials. These events are more common at lower levels of kidney function. Combining data from the two trials creates an opportunity to examine the effect of dapagliflozin across the spectrum of baseline kidney function.

Purpose

To determine the effects of dapagliflozin on HHF/CVD and kidney endpoints across a broad range of kidney function in the combined dataset.

Methods

We conducted a post hoc analysis of pooled patient-level data from DECLARE and DAPA-CKD. The effects of dapagliflozin compared with placebo on HHF/CVD and kidney endpoints (defined as sustained eGFR decrease ≥40%, end-stage kidney disease, or renal death) were assessed in the combined cohorts and in subgroups of baseline eGFR (<45, 45-<60, 60-<90, ≥90 mL/min/1.73 m2) and urinary albumin:creatinine ratio (UACR) (<30, 30-<300, 300-<1000, ≥1000 mg/g).

Results

A total of 19,748 patients with T2DM were included. Median (IQR) follow up time was 4.1 (3.7–4.4) years. Median eGFR was 85 (65–95) mL/min/1.73 m2 and UACR 18.2 (7–135) mg/g. Overall, dapagliflozin reduced the risk of HHF/CVD by 18% (HR 0.82, 95% CI 0.73–0.92, p<0.001) and kidney endpoints by 40% (HR 0.60, 95% CI 0.52–0.69, p<0.001). Overall rates of HHF/CVD and kidney endpoints were higher with lower eGFR (p<0.001) and with higher UACR (p<0.001). There were consistent relative risk reductions in HHF/CVD and kidney events with dapagliflozin across eGFR (p-interaction 0.25 and 0.32, respectively, Figure 1) and UACR (p-interaction 0.29 and 0.83, respectively, Figure 2) subgroups. The absolute rate difference (ARD) with dapagliflozin for CVD/HHF ranged from 0.1 events per 1000 patient years in patients in normal categories of eGFR and UACR to 1.0–1.7 events in patients in the most abnormal categories. Likewise, the ARD for kidney events ranged from 0.2 events per 1000 patient years in the normal eGFR and UACR groups to 2.5–4.3 events in patients in the most abnormal categories.

Conclusion

In this pooled analysis of pts with T2DM, there was higher risk of HHF/CVD and kidney events with lower eGFR and higher UACR. Dapagliflozin consistently reduced these events regardless of baseline eGFR and UACR, with large absolute risk reductions in patients with lower eGFR and higher UACR.

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding sources: None.

FC082: Effects of Dapagliflozin in Patients with Chronic Kidney Disease According to Background Angiotensin-Converting Enzyme Inhibitor and Angiotensin Receptor Blocker Dose

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Treatment guidelines for patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD) recommend renin–angiotensin system inhibition (RASi) with angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors (ACEi) or angiotensin receptor blockers (ARBs) to reduce the risk of kidney failure. However, patients with more advanced CKD do not always tolerate RASi. The sodium-glucose cotransporter 2 inhibitor dapagliflozin reduced the risk of kidney failure in patients with CKD in the DAPA-CKD trial. We performed a post hoc analysis of this trial to assess the efficacy of dapagliflozin by baseline dose level of ACEi or ARB.

METHOD

Participants with CKD [estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) 25–75 mL/min/1.73 m2; urinary albumin-to-creatinine ratio (UACR) 200–5000 mg/g), with or without type 2 diabetes, were randomized 1:1 to dapagliflozin 10 mg or placebo, once daily. Participants were to be treated with the recommended target dose, or a stable tolerated dose of ACEi or ARB, unless medically contraindicated, for ≥4 weeks prior to inclusion. The primary outcome was a composite of sustained ≥50% eGFR decline, end-stage kidney disease or death from a kidney or cardiovascular cause. A prespecified kidney-specific secondary outcome was the same as the primary endpoint, but without cardiovascular death. A composite cardiovascular outcome (heart failure hospitalization or cardiovascular death), and all-cause mortality were other secondary endpoints. Time-to-event analyses were performed to assess the effects of dapagliflozin versus placebo according to baseline prescription and dose of ACEi or ARB treatment.

RESULTS

Of 4296 (99.9%) participants with available data on ACEi/ARB doses, 1231 (28.7%) were using the target dose, 1867 (43.5%) a dose ≥50% to <100% of target, 1068 (24.9%) a dose 0 to <50% of target and 130 (3.0%) were not using an ACEi/ARB. In the placebo group, the event rate for the primary outcome was highest among participants not using ACEi/ARBs compared to the other subgroups (figure 1). The benefit of dapagliflozin on the primary composite outcome was consistent regardless of use or non-use of the target dose of ACEi/ARBs. This consistency was maintained for the secondary outcomes (Figure 1). Dapagliflozin compared to placebo reduced the rate of eGFR decline over the study by –0.93 [95% confidence interval (95% CI) 0.61–1.25] mL/min/1.73 m2. This effect was present regardless of the use or non-use of target doses of ACEi/ARBs (P for interaction 0.877).

CONCLUSION

Dapagliflozin was similarly efficacious in reducing major adverse kidney and cardiovascular outcomes in participants with CKD regardless of the use or dose of ACEi/ARB.

MO532: Cardiovascular Events in Patients With Non–Dialysis-Dependent Chronic Kidney Disease and Anemia: Regional Analysis of Patients Previously Treated With Erythropoiesis-Stimulating Agents in the PRO2TECT Trial

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Vadadustat is an oral hypoxia-inducible factor prolyl hydroxylase inhibitor being investigated for the treatment of anemia due to chronic kidney disease (CKD). In global phase 3 trials, vadadustat has demonstrated non-inferiority to darbepoetin alfa for time to major adverse cardiovascular event (MACE) in patients with dialysis-dependent CKD (INNO2VATE trials), but not with non–dialysis-dependent CKD (NDD-CKD; PRO2TECT trials) [1, 2]. In a prespecified subgroup analysis of the PRO2TECT trials, a difference in the relative safety between vadadustat and darbepoetin alfa was observed between the US and non-US regions [1]. We investigated regional differences in MACE in patients with NDD-CKD-administered vadadustat and darbepoetin alfa who were previously treated with erythropoietin-stimulating agents (ESAs) in the PRO2TECT trials.

METHOD

Two phase 3, open-label, randomized, active-controlled clinical trials comparing vadadustat with darbepoetin alfa were conducted in North America, Latin America, Europe, Africa, and the Asia-Pacific region. This post hoc analysis evaluated MACE in patients in the PRO2TECT trial who were actively maintained on ESAs at study entry with ≥1 dose received within 6 weeks before or during screening (Conversion trial; NCT02680574) and who received ≥1 dose of trial drug, stratified by region (USA versus Europe versus non-US/non-Europe). MACE was defined as a composite of death from any cause, nonfatal myocardial infarction or nonfatal stroke. Expanded MACE was defined as MACE plus hospitalization for heart failure or thromboembolic event, excluding vascular access failure.

RESULTS

A total of 1723 ESA-treated patients were randomized in the conversion trial of the PRO2TECT program and received ≥1 dose of study drug, including 665 patients in the USA, 444 in Europe, and 614 outside the USA and Europe. Europe had a lower proportion of patients with diabetes and more patients who had received intravenous (IV) iron, while patients in the non-US/non-European region were younger and had a lower prevalence of cardiovascular (CV) disease. A higher proportion of patients in Europe were using darbepoetin alfa at baseline than in other regions (59%–63% versus 14%–28%), though ESA dose was lower (57–61 versus 93–149 IV epoetin equivalent U/kg/week). The hazard ratio for MACE in the overall population for vadadustat versus darbepoetin alfa was 1.16 (95% CI 0.93–1.45). Across regions, event rates were similar in the vadadustat groups, but event rates in the darbepoetin alfa group were lower in Europe compared with the US and non-US/non-Europe (Table 1), which was driven by fewer total deaths (non-CV and CV) reported in Europe in the darbepoetin alfa arm (n = 24/220) compared with the vadadustat arm (n = 38/224) (Table 2). Additional post hoc analyses of MACE accounting for several baseline characteristics, including ESA dose, did not alter the outcomes of the study.

CONCLUSION

Regional differences in time to first MACE were observed in patients with NDD-CKD who were treated with ESA and randomized to receive vadadustat or darbepoetin alfa as part of the PRO2TECT program. It remains unclear if the lower risk of MACE observed in Europe with the darbepoetin alfa group was related to differences in unobserved baseline characteristics, regional treatment practices, methodological reasons or chance.

MO536: Cardiovascular Events in Patients With Anemia Associated With Non–Dialysis-Dependent Chronic Kidney Disease: Regional Analysis of Patients not Previously Treated With Erythropoiesis-Stimulating Agents in The PRO2TECT Trial

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Vadadustat is an oral hypoxia-inducible factor prolyl hydroxylase inhibitor being investigated for treatment of anemia due to chronic kidney disease (CKD). In global phase 3 trials, vadadustat has demonstrated non-inferiority to darbepoetin alfa for time to major adverse cardiovascular event (MACE) in patients with dialysis-dependent CKD (INNO2VATE trials), but not with non–dialysis-dependent CKD (NDD-CKD; PRO2TECT trials) [1,2]. In a prespecified subgroup analysis of the PRO2TECT trials, no difference in cardiovascular safety was observed in the USA, but a higher risk of MACE was found for patients treated with vadadustat outside the USA.1 We investigated regional differences in MACE in patients previously untreated with erythropoietin-stimulating agents (ESAs) in the PRO2TECT trial.

METHOD

Two phase 3, open-label, randomized, active-controlled clinical trials comparing vadadustat with darbepoetin alfa were conducted in North America, Latin America, Europe, Africa, and the Asia-Pacific region. This post hoc analysis evaluated MACE in patients in the PRO2TECT trial not treated with ESAs within 8 weeks of enrollment (correction trial; NCT02648347) and who received ≥1 dose of trial drug, stratified by region (USA versus Europe versus non-USA/non-Europe). MACE was defined as a composite of death from any cause, nonfatal myocardial infarction, or nonfatal stroke. Expanded MACE was defined as MACE plus hospitalization for heart failure or thromboembolic event, excluding vascular access failure.

RESULTS

A total of 1748 ESA-untreated patients receiving ≥1 dose of study drug were enrolled in the PRO2TECT trial, including 1058 patients in the USA, 139 in Europe and 551 outside the USA and Europe. Patients in the non-USA/non-European countries were younger and had a lower mean eGFR than patients in the USA or Europe. Furthermore, 34.7% of patients randomized to vadadustat had a baseline eGFR <10 mL/min/1.73 m2 versus 24.0% of patients randomized to darbepoetin alfa in the non-USA/non-European countries. The hazard ratio for MACE in the overall population for vadadustat versus darbepoetin alfa was 1.16 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.96–1.41]. When analyzed by region, higher event rate for MACE was observed in the vadadustat arm in the non-USA/non-European countries compared with the USA and Europe (Table 1). The higher event rates for MACE in the non-USA/non-European countries were driven by 21 excess MACEs reported in the vadadustat group. Many deaths in the non-USA/non-European countries were related to kidney failure (n = 25/43 in the vadadustat group; n = 20/30 in the darbepoetin alfa group; Table 2), and were concentrated in Brazil and South Africa, countries that enrolled a higher proportion of patients with end-stage kidney failure who may not have had access to dialysis. The adverse event profiles for vadadustat and darbepoetin alfa were similar across regions.

CONCLUSION

Regional differences in time to first MACE were observed in patients with NDD-CKD who were not previously treated with ESAs and randomized to receive vadadustat or darbepoetin alfa as part of the PRO2TECT trial. The higher event rate in the vadadustat group in non-USA/non-European countries may have been related to randomization imbalances and/or design and methodological issues. These findings should help inform care providers as they assess the overall safety of vadadustat for the treatment of anemia associated with NDD-CKD.

SARS-CoV-2 Booster Vaccine Response among Patients Receiving Dialysis

N/A.

Cost Structures of US Organ Procurement Organizations

BACKGROUND

The goal is to provide a national analysis of organ procurement organization (OPO) costs.

METHODS

Five years of data, for 51 of the 58 OPOs (2013-2017, a near census) were obtained under a FOIA. OPOs are not-for-profit federal contractors with a geographic monopoly. A generalized 15-factor cost regression model was estimated with adjustments to precision of estimates (P) for repeated observations. Selected measures were validated by comparison to IRS forms.

RESULTS

Decease donor organ procurement is a $1B/y operation with over 26 000 transplants/y. Over 60% of the cost of an organ is overhead. Profits are $2.3M/OPO/y. Total assets are $45M/OPO and growing at 9%/y. "Tissue" (skin, bones) generates $2-3M profit/OPO/y. A comparison of the highest with the lower costing OPOs showed our model explained 75% of the cost difference. Comparing costs across OPOs showed that highest-cost OPOs are smaller, import 44% more kidneys, face 6% higher labor costs, report 98% higher compensation for support personnel, spend 46% more on professional education, have 44% fewer assets, compensate their Executive Director 36% less, and have a lower procurement performance (SDRR) score.

CONCLUSIONS

Profits and assets suggest that OPOs are fiscally secure and OPO finances are not a source of the organ shortage. Asset accumulation ($45M/OPO) of incumbents suggests establishing a competitive market with new entrants is unlikely. Kidney-cost allocations support tissue procurements. Professional education spending does not reduce procurement costs. OPO importing of organs from other OPOs is a complex issue possibly increasing cost ($6K/kidney).

FC 063DAPAGLIFLOZIN DECREASES ALBUMINURIA IN PATIENTS WITH CHRONIC KIDNEY DISEASE WITH AND WITHOUT TYPE 2 DIABETES: INSIGHTS FROM THE DAPA-CKD TRIAL

Background and Aims

Reductions in albuminuria are consistently associated with a subsequent lower risk of kidney failure. The sodium glucose co-transporter 2 inhibitor dapagliflozin significantly reduced albuminuria in patients with type 2 diabetes. Whether this effect persist in patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD) with and without diabetes is unknown. We therefore assessed and compared the effects of dapagliflozin on albuminuria in patients with CKD with and without type 2 diabetes from the DAPA-CKD trial.

Method

We randomized 4304 patients with CKD and an eGFR of 25-75 ml/min/1.73m2 and urinary albumin-to-creatinine ratio (UACR) 200-5000 mg/g to dapagliflozin (10 mg once daily) or placebo. Change in albuminuria was a pre-specified exploratory outcome. We used regression in UACR stage, defined as a transition from macroalbuminuria (≥300 mg/g) to micro- or normoalbuminuria (<300 mg/g), and progression in UACR stage, defined as a transition from non-nephrotic (<3000 mg/g) to nephrotic range albuminuria (≥3000 mg/g), as additional endpoints. Subgroup analyses were performed according to baseline type 2 diabetes status.

Results

Median (25th to 75th Percentile) UACR was 949 (477-1885) mg/g. In patients with and without type 2 diabetes baseline median UACR was 1017 mg/g and 861 mg/g, respectively. Dapagliflozin, compared to placebo, reduced UACR by 29.3% (95% confidence interval [CI] 25.2, 33.1; p<0.001), with a 35.1% (95%CI 30.6, 39.4) reduction in patients with type 2 diabetes and 14.8% (95%CI 5.9, 22.9) reduction in patients without type 2 diabetes (p for interaction <0.001). Among 3860 patients with UACR ≥300 mg/g at baseline, dapagliflozin significantly increased the likelihood of regression in UACR stage (hazard ratio [HR] 1.81; 95%CI 1.60, 2.05). The corresponding HRs for patients with and without type 2 diabetes were 2.06 (95%CI 1.78, 2.39) and 1.33 (95%CI 1.07, 1.66), respectively (p for interaction 0.001). Among 3820 patients with UACR <3000 mg/g at baseline, dapagliflozin significantly decreased the risk of nephrotic range albuminuria (HR 0.41; 95%CI 0.32, 0.52). The corresponding HRs for patients with and without type 2 diabetes were 0.39 (95%CI 0.29, 0.51) and 0.50 (95%CI 0.30, 0.82), respectively (p for interaction 0.401).

Conclusion

In patients with CKD with and without type 2 diabetes dapagliflozin significantly reduced albuminuria, with a larger reduction in patients with type 2 diabetes. The similar effects of dapagliflozin on clinical outcomes in patients with or without type 2 diabetes, but different effects on UACR suggest that part of dapagliflozin’s protective effect in patients without diabetes is mediated through pathways unrelated to UACR reduction.

MO518INSIDE CKD: MODELLING THE ECONOMIC BURDEN OF CHRONIC KIDNEY DISEASE IN THE AMERICAS AND THE ASIA-PACIFIC REGION USING PATIENT-LEVEL MICROSIMULATION

Background and Aims

Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is a debilitating and costly condition, with an estimated global prevalence of approximately 10%. Progression of CKD is associated with end-stage renal disease, cardiovascular events and premature mortality, as well as increased requirement for renal replacement therapies (RRTs), which are associated with significant healthcare costs and resource use. Furthermore, patients with CKD often have additional comorbidities, which are associated with CKD progression and increased costs. The trajectories of CKD prevalence, progression, outcomes and the related costs are therefore critical considerations for public health and policy planning. Using country-specific, patient-level microsimulation, Inside CKD aims to model the global clinical and economic burden of CKD from 2020 to 2025.

Method

We used the Inside CKD microsimulation to model the economic burden of CKD in the Americas and Asia-Pacific region. We developed a virtual general population for each country using national survey data and relevant data from published literature. Data inputs included country demographics, the prevalence of CKD and RRT, comorbidities and complication rates as well as associated healthcare costs. CKD stages were defined according to Kidney Disease Improving Global Outcomes (KDIGO) 2012 recommendations and patients were categorized according to estimated glomerular filtration rate and albuminuria status. We calibrated the RRT modelling against historical trends from country-specific renal registries. We conducted model validation and calibration using established methods for health economic modelling. Here, we report the results from the US and Canada analyses, with further analyses currently underway for additional countries in the Americas and Asia-Pacific region.

Results

Initial results for the US and Canada revealed that, between 2020 and 2025, annual healthcare costs associated with CKD will increase linearly from US$232.3B to US$376.2B in the US and from C$21.4B to C$34.1B in Canada (this figure does not include complication costs). In the US, the largest absolute increase in cost was observed in CKD stage 3a ($98.4B); however, CKD stage 4 had the largest relative increase in cost with an approximately three-fold increase (US$7.30B to US$23.3B). In Canada, the largest absolute increase in cost was observed in CKD stage 3a (C$5.84B); whereas CKD stage 5 had the largest relative increase in cost with an approximately five-fold increase (C$0.27B to C$1.41B). By 2025, costs associated with CKD will increase across all age categories (18–34, 35–64 and 65+ years) in both countries. In the US, the 35–64 age group had the largest absolute increase in costs with an increase of $74B (US$58.3B to US$132B). The largest relative increase in cost was observed in the 18–34 age category, with approximately a three-fold increase in costs (US$3.76B to US$10.2B). In Canada, the 65+ age group had the largest absolute increase in costs with an increase of C$7.9B (C$16.4B to C$24.3B). Both the 18–34 and 35–64 age categories had the largest relative increase in costs, with an approximately two-fold increase (C$0.25B to C$0.49B and C$4.77B to C$9.31B, respectively).

Conclusion

Initial results from Inside CKD demonstrate that CKD poses a significant economic burden over the next 5 years. CKD stage 3a was associated with the most pronounced cost increases in both the US and Canada, likely due to the increased prevalence of this stage. In the US, the largest increase in CKD costs was observed in the 35–64-year-old ‘working’ population, whereas the largest increase in Canada was observed in the 65 years old and over population. Further policy interventions aimed at early diagnosis and proactive management should be considered to slow disease progression, improve patient outcomes and reduce the economic burden associated with CKD.

MO486INSIDE CKD: MODELLING THE IMPACT OF IMPROVED SCREENING FOR CHRONIC KIDNEY DISEASE IN THE AMERICAS AND ASIA-PACIFIC REGION

Background and Aims

With an estimated global prevalence of 10%, chronic kidney disease (CKD) and its associated complications place a substantial strain on healthcare systems worldwide, which is compounded by the burden of undiagnosed CKD. Early CKD diagnosis followed by guideline-recommended interventions can improve patient outcomes and reduce associated healthcare-related costs, particularly by delaying or preventing the development of complications and progression to kidney failure. Urinary albumin-to-creatinine ratio (UACR) can be used to screen for CKD, but adherence to screening recommendations is suboptimal in routine care. Inside CKD aims to model the global clinical and economic burden of CKD using country-specific, patient-level microsimulation models. We used the Inside CKD microsimulation to model the potential clinical and economic impacts of routine measurement of UACR followed by appropriate intervention in patients aged 45 years and over in the US and Canada.

Method

The Inside CKD microsimulation model was used to model the clinical and economic impacts associated with measurement of UACR with subsequent appropriate intervention during routine primary care visits versus current practice in individuals aged 45 years and over. The model covers the period 2020–2025. In preliminary analyses, virtual populations representing the general populations of the US and Canada were constructed using published country-specific data, including demographics, prevalence of CKD and comorbidities (type 2 diabetes, uncontrolled hypertension and heart failure), incidence of complications (heart failure, myocardial infarction, stroke and acute kidney injury) and costs associated with CKD. The model also included parameters relating to the proportion of patients who visit a primary care physician at least once a year, the proportion of patients who agreed to UACR measurements, and the diagnostic sensitivity and specificity of UACR measurements. The modelling is being expanded to additional countries in the Americas and the Asia-Pacific region.

Results

Preliminary results from the US and Canada show that over the 2020–2025 period routine measurement of UACR during primary care visits followed by appropriate intervention could prevent progression to CKD stages 3b–5 in approximately 1.3M patients in the US and 160 000 in Canada, compared with current clinical practice, with linear increases in the cumulative numbers of prevented cases (Figure). Associated savings in healthcare costs in 2025 are projected to be approximately US$16B in the US and C$2.5B in Canada, corresponding to a reduction in cost for that year of 4.4% and 7.4%, respectively, compared with current clinical practice.

Conclusion

Preliminary results from the Inside CKD microsimulation model in the US and Canada show that routine measurement of UACR with subsequent intervention in primary care would prevent progression to CKD stages 3b–5 in a substantial number of patients compared with current screening practices, and could therefore decrease associated healthcare costs considerably. This analysis is being extended to further countries in the Americas and the Asia-Pacific region.

Estimated impact of novel coronavirus-19 and transplant center inactivity on end-stage renal disease-related patient mortality in the United States

To predict whether the COVID‐19 pandemic and transplant center responses could have resulted in preventable deaths, we analyzed registry information of the US end‐stage renal disease (ESRD) patient population awaiting kidney transplantation. Data were from the Organ Procurement and Transplantation Network (OPTN), the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and the United States Renal Data System. Based on 2019 OPTN reports, annualized reduction in kidney transplantation of 25%–100% could result in excess deaths of wait‐listed (deceased donor) transplant candidates from 84 to 337 and living donor candidate excess deaths from 35 to 141 (total 119–478 potentially preventable deaths of transplant candidates). Changes in transplant activity due to COVID‐19 varied with some centers shutting down while others simply heeded known or suspected pandemic risks. Understanding potential excess mortality for ESRD transplant candidates when circumstances compel curtailment of transplant activity may inform policy and procedural aspects of organ transplant systems allowing ways to best inform patients and families as to potential risks in shuttering organ transplant activity. Considering that more than 700 000 Americans have ESRD with 100 000 awaiting a kidney transplant, our highest annual estimate of 478 excess total deaths from postponing kidney transplantation seems modest.

SO086SNF472 CONSISTENTLY SLOWS PROGRESSION OF CORONARY CALCIFICATION IN PATIENTS ON HEMODIALYSIS: SUBGROUP ANALYSIS OF THE CALIPSO STUDY

Background and Aims

In the CaLIPSO study, SNF472 significantly attenuated progression of coronary artery calcium (CAC) volume score compared with placebo. This pre-specified analysis examined the effect of SNF472 on CAC progression in key subgroups of patients in CaLIPSO.

Method

Patients with a CAC Agatston score of 100 to 3500 at baseline were randomized to SNF472 300 mg (n=92), SNF472 600 mg (n=91), or placebo (n=91), infused during hemodialysis (HD) thrice weekly for 52 weeks. Patients received standard of care therapy, including phosphate binders and calcimimetics as determined by investigator. The primary endpoint (change in log CAC volume score from baseline to week 52 in the combined dose groups vs placebo) was analyzed for patients who received SNF472 or placebo and had an evaluable CT scan post-randomization (modified ITT population). Sensitivity analysis was also performed for the per protocol population of patients that met entry criteria, received 80% of scheduled treatment, completed the study procedures, and had both a baseline and week 52 evaluable CT scan. The analysis plan pre-specified key subgroups: age, sex, diabetes, dialysis vintage, and arteriosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD), as well as baseline use of non-calcium phosphate binders, calcium-based phosphate binders, calcimimetics, activated vitamin D, warfarin, or statins.

Results

Demographics and disease characteristics were similar across the treatment groups. Age (mean±SD) at baseline was 63.6±8.9 years and 39% of the patients were female; 62% had diabetes and 41% had prior ASCVD. Median dialysis vintage was 42.4 months; 33% had received hemodialysis for ≥5 years. Concomitant medications at baseline were: non-calcium phosphate binders, 62%; calcium-based phosphate binders, 28%; calcimimetics, 31%; activated vitamin D, 51%; warfarin, 8%; and statins, 64%. CAC volume progression was 11% for the combined dose groups and 20% for placebo (p=0.016). Treatment differences for CAC volume score progression from baseline to week 52 were similar across the subgroups (FIGURE). All interaction p-values were non-significant, and comparisons favored SNF472 vs placebo in each subgroup for both the modified ITT and per protocol population.

Conclusion

SNF472 treatment for 52 weeks attenuated CAC progression compared with placebo in all subgroups of the CaLIPSO study. These results support the potential benefit of SNF472 across a broad population of patients with cardiovascular calcification. Future studies are needed to determine the effects of SNF472 on cardiovascular events in patients receiving HD.

Estimating the Risk of Radiocontrast-Associated Nephropathy

Estimates of the incidence of radiocontrast-associated nephropathy vary widely and suffer from misclassification of the cause of AKI and confounding. Using the Nationwide Inpatient Sample, we created multiple estimates of the risk of radiocontrast-associated nephropathy among adult patients hospitalized in the United States in 2009. First, we stratified patients according to the presence or absence of 12 relatively common diagnoses associated with AKI and evaluated the rate of AKI between strata. Next, we created a logistic regression model, controlling for comorbidity and acuity of illness, to estimate the risk of AKI associated with radiocontrast administration within each stratum. Finally, we performed an analysis stratified by the degree of preexisting comorbidity. In general, patients who received radiocontrast did not develop AKI at a clinically significant higher rate. Adjusted only for the complex survey design, patients to whom radiocontrast was and was not administered developed AKI at rates of 5.5% and 5.6%, respectively. After controlling for comorbidity and acuity of illness, radiocontrast administration associated with an odds ratio for AKI of 0.93 (95% confidence interval, 0.88 to 0.97). In conclusion, the risk of radiocontrast-associated nephropathy may be overstated in the literature and overestimated by clinicians. More accurate AKI risk estimates may improve clinical decision-making when attempting to balance the potential benefits of radiocontrast-enhanced imaging and the risk of AKI.

Kidney function as a predictor of loss of lean mass in older adults: health, aging and body composition study

OBJECTIVES

To assess the association between kidney function and change in body composition in older individuals.

DESIGN

Prospective cohort study.

SETTING

Two sites, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, and Memphis, Tennessee.

PARTICIPANTS

Three thousand twenty-six well-functioning, participants aged 70 to 79 in the Health, Aging and Body Composition Study.

MEASUREMENTS

Body composition (bone-free lean mass and fat mass) was measured using dual x-ray absorptiometry annually for 4 years. Kidney function was measured at baseline according to serum creatinine (SCr). Comorbidity and inflammatory markers were evaluated as covariates in mixed-model, repeated-measures analysis.

RESULTS

High SCr was associated with loss of lean mass in men but not women, with a stronger relationship in black men (P=.02 for difference between slopes for white and black men). In white men, after adjustment for age and comorbidity, higher SCr remained associated with loss of lean mass (-0.07+/-0.03 kg/y greater loss per 0.4 mg/dL (1 standard deviation (SD)), P=.009) but was attenuated after adjustment for inflammatory factors (-0.05+/-0.03 kg/y greater loss per SD, P=.10). In black men, the relationship between SCr and loss of lean mass (-0.19+/-0.04 kg/y per SD, P<.001) persisted after adjustment for inflammation and overall weight change.

CONCLUSION

Impaired kidney function may contribute to loss of lean mass in older men. Inflammation appeared to mediate the relationship in white but not black men. Future studies should strive to elucidate mechanisms linking kidney disease and muscle loss and identify treatments to minimize loss of lean mass and its functional consequences.