Effect of managed transition on mental health outcomes for young people at the child-adult mental health service boundary: a randomised clinical trial

BACKGROUND

Poor transition planning contributes to discontinuity of care at the child-adult mental health service boundary (SB), adversely affecting mental health outcomes in young people (YP). The aim of the study was to determine whether managed transition (MT) improves mental health outcomes of YP reaching the child/adolescent mental health service (CAMHS) boundary compared with usual care (UC).

METHODS

A two-arm cluster-randomised trial (ISRCTN83240263 and NCT03013595) with clusters allocated 1:2 between MT and UC. Recruitment took place in 40 CAMHS (eight European countries) between October 2015 and December 2016. Eligible participants were CAMHS service users who were receiving treatment or had a diagnosed mental disorder, had an IQ ⩾ 70 and were within 1 year of reaching the SB. MT was a multi-component intervention that included CAMHS training, systematic identification of YP approaching SB, a structured assessment (Transition Readiness and Appropriateness Measure) and sharing of information between CAMHS and adult mental health services. The primary outcome was HoNOSCA (Health of the Nation Outcome Scale for Children and Adolescents) score 15-months post-entry to the trial.

RESULTS

The mean difference in HoNOSCA scores between the MT and UC arms at 15 months was -1.11 points (95% confidence interval -2.07 to -0.14, p = 0.03). The cost of delivering the intervention was relatively modest (€17-€65 per service user).

CONCLUSIONS

MT led to improved mental health of YP after the SB but the magnitude of the effect was small. The intervention can be implemented at low cost and form part of planned and purposeful transitional care.

An online parenting intervention to prevent affective disorders in high-risk adolescents: the PIPA trial protocol

BACKGROUND

Adolescent depression can place a young person at high risk of recurrence and a range of psychosocial and vocational impairments in adult life, highlighting the importance of early recognition and prevention. Parents/carers are well placed to notice changes in their child's emotional wellbeing which may indicate risk, and there is increasing evidence that modifiable factors exist within the family system that may help reduce the risk of depression and anxiety in an adolescent. A randomised controlled trial (RCT) of the online personalised 'Partners in Parenting' programme developed in Australia, focused on improving parenting skills, knowledge and awareness, showed that it helped reduce depressive symptoms in adolescents who had elevated symptom levels at baseline. We have adapted this programme and will conduct an RCT in a UK setting.

METHODS

In total, 433 family dyads (parents/carers and children aged 11-15) will be recruited through schools, social media and parenting/family groups in the UK. Following completion of screening measures of their adolescent's depressive symptoms, parents/carers of those with elevated scores will be randomised to receive either the online personalised parenting programme or a series of online factsheets about adolescent development and wellbeing. The primary objective will be to test whether the personalised parenting intervention reduces depressive symptoms in adolescents deemed at high risk, using the parent-reported Short Mood & Feelings Questionnaire. Follow-up assessments will be undertaken at 6 and 15 months and a process evaluation will examine context, implementation and impact of the intervention. An economic evaluation will also be incorporated with cost-effectiveness of the parenting intervention expressed in terms of incremental cost per quality-adjusted life year gained.

DISCUSSION

Half of mental health problems emerge before mid-adolescence and approximately three-quarters by mid-20s, highlighting the need for effective preventative strategies. However, few early interventions are family focused and delivered online. We aim to conduct a National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) funded RCT of the online personalised 'Partners in Parenting' programme, proven effective in Australia, targeting adolescents at risk of depression to evaluate its effectiveness, cost-effectiveness and usability in a UK setting. TRIAL REGISTRATION {2A}: ISRCTN63358736 . Registered 18 September 2019.

Demographic, clinical, and service-use characteristics related to the clinician's recommendation to transition from child to adult mental health services

PURPOSE

The service configuration with distinct child and adolescent mental health services (CAMHS) and adult mental health services (AMHS) may be a barrier to continuity of care. Because of a lack of transition policy, CAMHS clinicians have to decide whether and when a young person should transition to AMHS. This study describes which characteristics are associated with the clinicians' advice to continue treatment at AMHS.

METHODS

Demographic, family, clinical, treatment, and service-use characteristics of the MILESTONE cohort of 763 young people from 39 CAMHS in Europe were assessed using multi-informant and standardized assessment tools. Logistic mixed models were fitted to assess the relationship between these characteristics and clinicians' transition recommendations.

RESULTS

Young people with higher clinician-rated severity of psychopathology scores, with self- and parent-reported need for ongoing treatment, with lower everyday functional skills and without self-reported psychotic experiences were more likely to be recommended to continue treatment. Among those who had been recommended to continue treatment, young people who used psychotropic medication, who had been in CAMHS for more than a year, and for whom appropriate AMHS were available were more likely to be recommended to continue treatment at AMHS. Young people whose parents indicated a need for ongoing treatment were more likely to be recommended to stay in CAMHS.

CONCLUSION

Although the decision regarding continuity of treatment was mostly determined by a small set of clinical characteristics, the recommendation to continue treatment at AMHS was mostly affected by service-use related characteristics, such as the availability of appropriate services.

Challenges and visions for managing pain-related insomnia in primary care using the hybrid CBT approach: a small-scale qualitative interview study with GPs, nurses, and practice managers

Background

Chronic pain and insomnia have a complex, bidirectional relationship – addressing sleep complaints alongside pain may be key to alleviating patient-reported distress and disability. Healthcare professionals have consistently reported wanting to offer psychologically informed chronic pain management at the primary care level. Research in secondary care has demonstrated good treatment efficacy of hybrid CBT for chronic pain and insomnia. However, primary care is typically the main point of treatment entry, hence may be better situated to offer treatments using a multidisciplinary approach. In this study, primary care service providers’ perception of feasibility for tackling pain-related insomnia in primary care was explored.

Methods

The data corpus originates from a feasibility trial exploring hybrid CBT for chronic pain and insomnia delivered in primary care. This formed three in-depth group interviews with primary care staff (n = 9) from different primary care centres from the same NHS locale. All interviews were conducted on-site using a semi-structured approach. Verbal data was recorded, transcribed verbatim and analysed using the thematic analysis process.

Results

Eight themes were identified – 1) Discrepant conceptualisations of the chronic pain-insomnia relationship and clinical application, 2) Mismatch between patients’ needs and available treatment offerings, 3) Awareness of psychological complexities, 4) Identified treatment gap for pain-related insomnia, 5) Lack of funding and existing infrastructure for new service development, 6) General shortage of psychological services for complex health conditions, 7) Multidisciplinary team provision with pain specialist input, and 8) Accessibility through primary care. These mapped onto four domains - Current understanding and practice, Perceived facilitators, Perceived barriers, Ideal scenarios for a new treatment service – which reflected the focus of our investigation. Taken together these provide key context for understanding challenges faced by health care professionals in considering and developing a new clinical service.

Conclusions

Primary care service providers from one locale advocate better, multidisciplinary treatment provision for chronic pain and insomnia. Findings suggest that situating this in primary care could be a feasible option, but this requires systemic support and specialist input as well as definitive trials for success.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12875-021-01552-3.

Protocol for the development and validation procedure of the managing the link and strengthening transition from child to adult mental health care (MILESTONE) suite of measures

Background

Mental health disorders in the child and adolescent population are a pressing public health concern. Despite the high prevalence of psychopathology in this vulnerable population, the transition from Child and Adolescent Mental Health Services (CAMHS) to Adult Mental Health Services (AMHS) has many obstacles such as deficiencies in planning, organisational readiness and policy gaps. All these factors contribute to an inadequate and suboptimal transition process. A suite of measures is required that would allow young people to be assessed in a structured and standardised way to determine the on-going need for care and to improve communication across clinicians at CAMHS and AMHS. This will have the potential to reduce the overall health economic burden and could also improve the quality of life for patients travelling across the transition boundary. The MILESTONE (Managing the Link and Strengthening Transition from Child to Adult Mental Health Care) project aims to address the significant socioeconomic and societal challenge related to the transition process. This protocol paper describes the development of two MILESTONE transition-related measures: The Transition Readiness and Appropriateness Measure (TRAM), designed to be a decision-making aide for clinicians, and the Transition Related Outcome Measure (TROM), for examining the outcome of transition.

Methods

The TRAM and TROM have been developed and were validated following the US FDA Guidance for Patient-reported Outcome Measures which follows an incremental stepwise framework. The study gathers information from service users, parents, families and mental health care professionals who have experience working with young people undergoing the transition process from eight European countries.

Discussion

There is an urgent need for comprehensive measures that can assess transition across the CAMHS/AMHS boundary. This study protocol describes the process of development of two new transition measures: the TRAM and TROM. The TRAM has the potential to nurture better transitions as the findings can be summarised and provided to clinicians as a clinician-decision making support tool for identifying cases who need to transition and the TROM can be used to examine the outcomes of the transition process.

Trial registration

MILESTONE study registration: ISRCTN83240263 Registered 23-July-2015 - ClinicalTrials.gov NCT03013595 Registered 6 January 2017.

Identifying latent tuberculosis in high-risk populations: systematic review and meta-analysis of test accuracy

BACKGROUND: The relative accuracy of interferon-gamma release assays (IGRAs) and the tuberculin skin test (TST) in identifying latent tuberculosis infection (LTBI) is uncertain.OBJECTIVE: To perform a systematic review and meta-analysis to compare the sensitivity and specificity of IGRAs and TST for the prediction of progression to clinical tuberculosis (TB).METHODS: We searched electronic databases (e.g., MEDLINE and EMBASE) from December 2009 to September 2018 for prospective studies that followed up individuals who had undergone testing with commercial IGRAs and/or TST but had not received treatment based on the test result. The sensitivity and specificity estimates were pooled using a Bayesian bivariate random-effects model.RESULTS: Twenty-five studies, mostly with moderate to high risk of bias and a mean follow-up time ranging from 1 to 5 years were included. TST (10–15 mm) tended to have lower sensitivity and higher specificity than QuantiFERON® Gold In-Tube, T-SPOT®.TB and TST (5 mm). The evidence did not indicate that any test outperformed the others due to wide and overlapping 95% credible intervals.CONCLUSION: The evidence following individuals who had undergone testing for LTBI and had progressed to clinical TB is sparse. We did not find that IGRAs were superior to TST or vice versa; however, as our findings are based on a small number of studies with methodological limitations and great uncertainty around the pooled estimates, the results should be interpreted with caution.

Managing the link and strengthening transition from child to adult mental health Care in Europe (MILESTONE): background, rationale and methodology

BACKGROUND

Transition from distinct Child and Adolescent Mental Health (CAMHS) to Adult Mental Health Services (AMHS) is beset with multitude of problems affecting continuity of care for young people with mental health needs. Transition-related discontinuity of care is a major health, socioeconomic and societal challenge globally. The overall aim of the Managing the Link and Strengthening Transition from Child to Adult Mental Health Care in Europe (MILESTONE) project (2014-19) is to improve transition from CAMHS to AMHS in diverse healthcare settings across Europe. MILESTONE focuses on current service provision in Europe, new transition-related measures, long term outcomes of young people leaving CAMHS, improving transitional care through 'managed transition', ethics of transitioning and the training of health care professionals.

METHODS

Data will be collected via systematic literature reviews, pan-European surveys, and focus groups with service providers, users and carers, and members of youth advocacy and mental health advocacy groups. A prospective cohort study will be conducted with a nested cluster randomised controlled trial in eight European Union (EU) countries (Belgium, Croatia, France, Germany, Ireland, Italy, Netherlands, UK) involving over 1000 CAMHS users, their carers, and clinicians.

DISCUSSION

Improving transitional care can facilitate not only recovery but also mental health promotion and mental illness prevention for young people. MILESTONE will provide evidence of the organisational structures and processes influencing transition at the service interface across differing healthcare models in Europe and longitudinal outcomes for young people leaving CAMHS, solutions for improving transitional care in a cost-effective manner, training modules for clinicians, and commissioning and policy guidelines for service providers and policy makers.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

"MILESTONE study" registration: ISRCTN ISRCTN83240263 Registered 23 July 2015; ClinicalTrials.gov NCT03013595 Registered 6 January 2017.

Comparing laboratory costs of smear/culture and Xpert® MTB/RIF-based tuberculosis diagnostic algorithms

SETTING

Cape Town, South Africa, where Xpert^® MTB/RIF was introduced as a screening test for all presumptive tuberculosis (TB) cases.

OBJECTIVE

To compare laboratory costs of smear/culture- and Xpert-based tuberculosis (TB) diagnostic algorithms in routine operational conditions.

METHODS

Economic costing was undertaken from a laboratory perspective, using an ingredients-based costing approach. Cost allocation was based on reviews of standard operating procedures and laboratory records, timing of test procedures, measurement of laboratory areas and manager interviews. We analysed laboratory test data to assess overall costs and cost per pulmonary TB and multidrug-resistant TB (MDR-TB) case diagnosed. Costs were expressed as 2013 Consumer Price Index-adjusted values.

RESULTS

Total TB diagnostic costs increased by 43%, from US$440 967 in the smear/culture-based algorithm (April-June 2011) to US$632 262 in the Xpert-based algorithm (April-June 2013). The cost per TB case diagnosed increased by 157%, from US$48.77 (n = 1601) to US$125.32 (n = 1281). The total cost per MDR-TB case diagnosed was similar, at US$190.14 and US$183.86, with 95 and 107 cases diagnosed in the respective algorithms.

CONCLUSION

The introduction of the Xpert-based algorithm resulted in substantial cost increases. This was not matched by the expected increase in TB diagnostic efficacy, calling into question the sustainability of this expensive new technology.

Short- and long-term clinical outcomes of use of beta-interferon or glatiramer acetate for people with clinically isolated syndrome: a systematic review of randomised controlled trials and network meta-analysis

Background

Beta-interferon (IFN-β) and glatiramer acetate (GA) have been evaluated in people with clinically isolated syndrome (CIS) with the aim to delay a second clinical attack and a diagnosis of clinically definite multiple sclerosis (CDMS). We systematically reviewed trials evaluating the short- and long-term clinical effectiveness of these drugs in CIS.

Methods

We searched multiple electronic databases. We selected randomised controlled studies (RCTs) conducted in CIS patients and where the interventions were IFN-β and GA. Main outcomes were time to CDMS, and discontinuation due to adverse events (AE). We compared interventions using random-effect network meta-analyses (NMA). We also reported outcomes from long-term open-label extension (OLE) studies.

Results

We identified five primary studies. Four had open-label extensions following double-blind periods comparing outcomes between early vs delayed DMT. Short-term clinical results (double-blind period) showed that all drugs delayed CDMS compared to placebo. Indirect comparisons did not suggest superiority of any one active drug over another. We could not undertake a NMA for discontinuation due to AE. Long-term clinical results (OLE studies) showed that the risk of developing CDMS was consistently reduced across studies after early DMT treatment compared to delayed DMT (HR = 0.64, 95% CI 0.55, 0.74). No data supported the benefit of DMTs in reducing the time to, and magnitude of, disability progression.

Conclusions

Meta-analyses confirmed that IFN-β and GA delay time to CDMS compared to placebo. In the absence of evidence that early DMTs can reduce disability progression, future research is needed to better identify patients most likely to benefit from long-term DMTs.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1007/s00415-018-8752-8) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Comparing multidrug-resistant tuberculosis patient costs under molecular diagnostic algorithms in South Africa

SETTING

Ten primary health care facilities in Cape Town, South Africa, 2010-2013.

OBJECTIVE

A comparison of costs incurred by patients in GenoType MDRTBplus line-probe assay (LPA) and Xpert MTB/RIF-based diagnostic algorithms from symptom onset until treatment initiation for multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB).

METHODS

Eligible patients identified from laboratory and facility records were interviewed 3-6 months after treatment initiation and a cost questionnaire completed. Direct and indirect costs, individual and household income, loss of individual income and change in household income were recorded in local currency, adjusted to 2013 costs and converted to $US.

RESULTS

Median number of visits to initiation of MDR-TB treatment was reduced from 20 to 7 (P < 0.001) and median costs fell from US$68.1 to US$38.3 (P = 0.004) in the Xpert group. From symptom onset to being interviewed, the proportion of unemployed increased from 39% to 73% in the LPA group (P < 0.001) and from 53% to 89% in the Xpert group (P < 0.001). Median household income decreased by 16% in the LPA group and by 13% in the Xpert group.

CONCLUSION

The introduction of an Xpert-based algorithm brought relief by reducing the costs incurred by patients, but loss of employment and income persist. Patients require support to mitigate this impact.

Effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of computer and other electronic aids for smoking cessation: a systematic review and network meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Smoking is harmful to health. On average, lifelong smokers lose 10 years of life, and about half of all lifelong smokers have their lives shortened by smoking. Stopping smoking reverses or prevents many of these harms. However, cessation services in the NHS achieve variable success rates with smokers who want to quit. Approaches to behaviour change can be supplemented with electronic aids, and this may significantly increase quit rates and prevent a proportion of cases that relapse.

OBJECTIVE

The primary research question we sought to answer was: What is the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of internet, pc and other electronic aids to help people stop smoking? We addressed the following three questions: (1) What is the effectiveness of internet sites, computer programs, mobile telephone text messages and other electronic aids for smoking cessation and/or reducing relapse? (2) What is the cost-effectiveness of incorporating internet sites, computer programs, mobile telephone text messages and other electronic aids into current nhs smoking cessation programmes? and (3) What are the current gaps in research into the effectiveness of internet sites, computer programs, mobile telephone text messages and other electronic aids to help people stop smoking?

DATA SOURCES

For the effectiveness review, relevant primary studies were sought from The Cochrane Library [Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL)] 2009, Issue 4, and MEDLINE (Ovid), EMBASE (Ovid), PsycINFO (Ovid), Health Management Information Consortium (HMIC) (Ovid) and Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature (CINAHL) (EBSCOhost) from 1980 to December 2009. In addition, NHS Economic Evaluation Database (NHS EED) and Database of Abstracts of Reviews of Effects (DARE) were searched for information on cost-effectiveness and modelling for the same period. Reference lists of included studies and of relevant systematic reviews were examined to identify further potentially relevant studies. Research registries of ongoing studies including National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Clinical Research Network Portfolio Database, Current Controlled Trials and ClinicalTrials.gov were also searched, and further information was sought from contacts with experts.

REVIEW METHODS

Randomised controlled trials (RCTs) and quasi-RCTs evaluating smoking cessation programmes that utilise computer, internet, mobile telephone or other electronic aids in adult smokers were included in the effectiveness review. Relevant studies of other design were included in the cost-effectiveness review and supplementary review. Pair-wise meta-analyses using both random- and fixed-effects models were carried out. Bayesian mixed-treatment comparisons (MTCs) were also performed. A de novo decision-analytical model was constructed for estimating the cost-effectiveness of interventions. Expected value of perfect information (EVPI) was calculated. Narrative synthesis of key themes and issues that may influence the acceptability and usability of electronic aids was provided in the supplementary review.

RESULTS

This effectiveness review included 60 RCTs/quasi-RCTs reported in 77 publications. Pooled estimate for prolonged abstinence [relative risk (RR) = 1.32, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.21 to 1.45] and point prevalence abstinence (RR = 1.14, 95% CI 1.07 to 1.22) suggested that computer and other electronic aids increase the likelihood of cessation compared with no intervention or generic self-help materials. There was no significant difference in effect sizes between aid to cessation studies (which provide support to smokers who are ready to quit) and cessation induction studies (which attempt to encourage a cessation attempt in smokers who are not yet ready to quit). Results from MTC also showed small but significant intervention effect (time to relapse, mean hazard ratio 0.87, 95% credible interval 0.83 to 0.92). Cost-threshold analyses indicated some form of electronic intervention is likely to be cost-effective when added to non-electronic behavioural support, but there is substantial uncertainty with regard to what the most effective (thus most cost-effective) type of electronic intervention is, which warrants further research. EVPI calculations suggested the upper limit for the benefit of this research is around £ 2000-3000 per person.

LIMITATIONS

The review focuses on smoking cessation programmes in the adult population, but does not cover smoking cessation in adolescents. Most available evidence relates to interventions with a single tailored component, while evidence for different modes of delivery (e.g. e-mail, text messaging) is limited. Therefore, the findings of lack of sufficient evidence for proving or refuting effectiveness should not be regarded as evidence of ineffectiveness. We have examined only a small number of factors that could potentially influence the effectiveness of the interventions. A comprehensive evaluation of potential effect modifiers at study level in a systematic review of complex interventions remains challenging. Information presented in published papers is often insufficient to allow accurate coding of each intervention or comparator. A limitation of the cost-effectiveness analysis, shared with several previous cost-effectiveness analyses of smoking cessation interventions, is that intervention benefit is restricted to the first quit attempt. Exploring the impact of interventions on subsequent attempts requires more detailed information on patient event histories than is available from current evidence.

CONCLUSIONS

Our effectiveness review concluded that computer and other electronic aids increase the likelihood of cessation compared with no intervention or generic self-help materials, but the effect is small. The effectiveness does not appear to vary with respect to mode of delivery and concurrent non-electronic co-interventions. Our cost-effectiveness review suggests that making some form of electronic support available to smokers actively seeking to quit is highly likely to be cost-effective. This is true whether the electronic intervention is delivered alongside brief advice or more intensive counselling. The key source of uncertainty is that around the comparative effectiveness of different types of electronic interventions. Our review suggests that further research is needed on the relative benefits of different forms of delivery for electronic aids, the content of delivery, and the acceptability of these technologies for smoking cessation with subpopulations of smokers, particularly disadvantaged groups. More evidence is also required on the relationship between involving users in the design of interventions and the impact this has on effectiveness, and finally on how electronic aids developed and tested in research settings are applied in routine practice and in the community.

The views of older women towards mammographic screening: a qualitative and quantitative study

Background:

Mammographic screening has improved breast cancer survival in the screened age group. This improved survival has not been seen in older women (>70 years) where screening uptake is low. This study explores the views, knowledge and attitudes of older women towards screening.

Methods:

Women (>70 years) were interviewed about breast screening. Interview findings informed the development of a questionnaire that was sent to 1000 women (>70 years) to quantify their views regarding screening.

Results:

Twenty-six women were interviewed and a questionnaire was designed. The questionnaire response rate was 48.3% (479 out of 992). Over half (52.9%, 241 out of 456) of the respondents were unaware that they could request a mammography by voluntary self-referral and were unaware how to arrange this. Most (81.5%, 383 out of 470) had not attended breast screening since turning 70 years. Most (75.6%, 343 out of 454) felt screening was beneficial and would attend if invited. Most (90.1%, 412 out of 457) felt screening should be offered to all women regardless of age or health.

Conclusions:

There is a lack of knowledge about screening in older women. The majority felt that invitation to screening should be extended to the older age group regardless of age or health. The current under-utilised system of voluntary self-referral is not supported by older women.

Effect of levofloxacin and pefloxacin on humoral immune response elicited by bovine serum albumin docked in gelatin microparticles and nanoparticles

The aim of the present investigation was to study the effect of levofloxacin and pefloxacin on the humoral immune response elicited by bovine serum albumin (BSA) encapsulated in gelatin particulate systems. FITC-BSA (Fluoresceine isothiocynate-bovine serum albumin) was entrapped in gelatin microparticles (GM) and gelatin nanoparticles (GN) prepared by emulsion polymerization and nanoemulsion methods, respectively. The prepared particulate carriers were evaluated for particle size, surface morphology, entrapment efficiency, zeta potential and in vitro antigen release. The optimized formulation of FITC-BSA loaded GM and GN were administered s.c. to albino rats and humoral immune response was measured in terms of systemic IgG antibody titre by ELISA method. The serum IgG response elicited was compared to that was obtained by s.c. administration of either free antigen or antigen emulsified (1:1) with Freund's in complete adjuvant (FIA). The vaccination of 2.41 +/- 1.56 microm sized GM elicited significantly (P<0.05) higher serum IgG response than that obtained with administration of 107 +/- 25 nm sized GN. Similarly, levofloxacin significantly (P<0.05) decreased the antibody titre in rats immunized with BSA docked GM whereas pefloxacin did not reduce the antibody titre significantly. The study will help in programming a new drug management and in characterization of vaccine-drug interaction.

Autologous haematopoietic stem cell transplantation for secondary progressive multiple sclerosis: an exploratory cost-effectiveness analysis

Treatment options for secondary progressive multiple sclerosis (SPMS) are limited. Mitoxantrone is routinely used to stabilize disease progression; however, evolving evidence suggests clinical benefit from intensive treatment with autologous haematopoietic stem cell transplantation (HSCT). Given differences in cost and outcomes, preliminary cost-effectiveness studies are warranted if this approach is to be developed for more widespread application in SPMS. We developed a decision-analytic Markov model to explore the potential cost-effectiveness of autologous HSCT versus mitoxantrone in SPMS, using patient-level data from registry sources. The model evaluates the lifetime costs and health outcomes associated with disability progression and relapse. Sensitivity analyses were undertaken to examine the uncertainty surrounding cost-effectiveness outcomes. In the absence of randomised controlled trial (RCT) evidence, conditions for comparative analysis were not ideal. Under optimistic assumptions, HSCT is estimated to cost below pound3000 per quality adjusted life year gained. However, when a strict 6-month sustained progression rule is adopted, HSCT may be less effective and more expensive than mitoxantrone. The model results were sensitive to reducing procedural costs and HSCT-related mortality. We conclude that HSCT could potentially achieve an acceptable level of cost-effectiveness. However, caution should be exercised as large, high-quality RCTs comparing HSCT versus mitoxantrone are necessary to validate these findings.

Recurrence rates for sudden infant death syndrome (SIDS): the importance of risk stratification

OBJECTIVE

To investigate the importance of stratification by risk factors in computing the probability of a second death from sudden infant death syndrome (SIDS) in a family.

DESIGN

Simulation study.

BACKGROUND

The fact that a baby dies suddenly and unexpectedly means that there is a raised probability that the baby's family have risk factors associated with SIDS. Thus one cannot consider the risk of a subsequent death to be that of the general population. The Confidential Enquiry into Stillbirths and Deaths in Infancy (CESDI) identified three major social risk factors: smoking, age<27 and parity>1, and unemployed/unwaged as major risk factors. It gave estimates of risk for families with different numbers of these risk factors. We investigate whether it is reasonable to assume that, conditional on these risk factors, the risk of a second event is independent of the risk of the first and as a consequence one can square the risks to get the risk of two SIDS in a family. We have used CESDI data to estimate the probability of a second SID in a family under different plausible scenarios of the prevalence of the risk factors. We have applied the model to make predictions in the Care of Next Infant (CONI) study.

RESULTS

The model gave plausible predictions. The CONI study observed 18 second SIDS. Our model predicted 14 deaths (95% prediction interval 7 to 21).

CONCLUSION

When considering the risk of a subsequent SIDS in a family one should always take into account the known risk factors. If all risks have been identified, then conditional on these risks, the risk of two events is the product of the individual risks. However, for a given family we cannot quantify the magnitude of the increased risk because of other possible risk factors not accounted for in the model.

A review and critique of modelling in prioritising and designing screening programmes

OBJECTIVES

To undertake a structured review and critical appraisal of methods for the model-based cost-utility analysis of screening programmes. Also to develop guidelines and an assessment checklist of good practice in the development of screening models.

DATA SOURCES

Major electronic databases of healthcare and operational research literatures were searched up to June 2003.

REVIEW METHODS

Searches of the literature were undertaken to identify applied and methodological studies of economic evaluations of healthcare screening programmes. All applied screening models were also reviewed in three broad disease areas (cancer, cardiovascular disease and diabetes), as well as antenatal screening. A second-level review focused on particular aspects of the modelling process through case study assessments of screening models for three specific disease areas (colorectal cancer, abdominal aortic aneurysms and antenatal screening for haemoglobinopathies). A separate literature review of studies reporting the utility effects of screening was also undertaken. Guidelines and an assessment checklist for good practice for screening modelling were developed.

RESULTS

Few relevant methodological studies were identified, and no studies reporting direct empirical comparisons of alternative methodologies were retrieved. From the review of disease-based screening models, it was apparent that many alternative modelling methods had been applied, including some relatively new approaches that had not been widely disseminated. Natural history modelling is the preferred approach. Alternative modelling approaches were generally only used to extrapolate the observed effects of screening and were unsuitable for evaluating unobserved screening options. More complex model structures may incorporate important additional aspects of the disease natural history, although any benefits should outweigh the consequences of additional unobservable input parameters and increased complexity in implementing the model. No direct comparisons of more detailed and less detailed screening model structures informed areas in which more realistic representations of the disease process may be most beneficial, so only general aspects of good practice could be defined. Two structural aspects that were not well handled by existing screening models included post-diagnosis disease progression and screening uptake. Most models described the former using historical mortality rates, rather than treatment models that are representative of current treatment patterns for different stages of the disease. Constant screening uptake rates were applied to all screening programmes and attendance was not linked to disease incidence or progression. Evidence exists to inform a more detailed representation of screening uptake. The most commonly applied modelling techniques were cohort Markov models and individual sampling simulation models. Individual sampling simulation models may provide more flexibility in their representation of a screening decision problem, but any benefits should outweigh the consequences of the need to assess both variability and uncertainty. Complex mathematical models describing input parameters as continuous variables have analysed the cost-effectiveness of screening; these require further development to estimate the cost-utility of screening directly, or to inform a more detailed representation of the preclinical section of a natural history model (with a traditional state-based model describing pathways' post-clinical presentation). Calibration is a common aspect of screening models, whereby models are fitted to observed data describing outputs of the model in order to populate unobserved input parameters. The review concluded that the estimation of a reference case input parameter set is not recommended.

CONCLUSIONS

The review of methods for the model-based cost-utility analysis of screening programmes identified the natural history modelling approach as the preferred general method of evaluation for screening programmes. State transition models have generally been used to represent disease natural histories, with individual sampling models more prevalent than in treatment intervention evaluations. No comparative methodological studies were identified, so no empirical data were available to inform the relative merits of alternative methodologies. The defined guidelines and assessment checklist are informed, therefore, by theoretical interpretations of the impact of alternative approaches to different components of the modelling process when applied to the cost-utility analysis of screening programmes. Further research is needed into methods with the potential to improve the accuracy of screening models, and to respond to the needs of model users.

Modelling the cost effectiveness of TNF-alpha antagonists in the management of rheumatoid arthritis: results from the British Society for Rheumatology Biologics Registry

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the cost effectiveness of TNF-alpha antagonist therapies for rheumatoid arthritis (RA) in the United Kingdom using data from the British Society for Rheumatology Biologics Registry (BSRBR).

METHODS

A simulation model is constructed to quantify the cost effectiveness of the TNF-alpha antagonist therapies (infliximab, etanercept and adalimumab) as a group versus traditional disease-modifying anti-rheumatic drugs, with a time horizon over the full patient lifetime. Participants are UK NHS patients in the BSRBR with RA who have failed at least two traditional disease-modifying anti-rheumatic drugs. The BSRBR aims to recruit all RA patients starting on a TNF-alpha antagonist agent and follows them 6 monthly via consultant and patient administered questionnaires. Data collected include disease activity scores (DAS28), the Health Assessment Questionnaire and the SF-36. Costs include drug, monitoring and hospitalisations. Benefits are measured in disability and quality of life improvements. The main outcome measure is the incremental cost per quality adjusted life-year gained (discounted).

RESULTS

The basecase cost per quality adjusted life-year gained by using TNF-alpha antagonist therapies is estimated at pound23 882, with probabilistic uncertainty analysis suggesting that the probability that treatments are below 30,000 pounds per QALY is around 84%. The results are most sensitive to assumptions concerning long-term disability progression, discount rates and the validity or otherwise of SF6D derived utility measures. Subgroup analysis, monotherapy versus combination with methotrexate, and a limited analysis of sequential therapy with two TNF-alpha antagonist agents, suggest cost-effectiveness ratios around 20,000 pounds to 30,000 pounds.

CONCLUSIONS

The BSRBR data provide valuable evidence for estimating cost-effectiveness. The analysis concludes that current policies and practice for the use of TNF-alpha antagonist therapies, after RA patients have failed at least two traditional disease-modifying anti-rheumatic drugs, appear cost-effective in the context of the NICE re-appraisal of 2006 for England and Wales, thus supporting their decision to continue their reimbursement. Decision-makers worldwide might adapt this analysis because differential costs, discount rates and other factors could affect results. There remains uncertainty, particularly on long-term disease progression. Further data collection using the BSRBR is recommended, together with a revision to this analysis when data become available.

Iodine status in pregnancy

The iodine status of 429 pregnant women in different trimesters from the lower socio-economic strata of the urban slums of Bombay was assessed using clinical and biochemical parameters. The total goitre rate (TGR) of 45% and a visible goitre rate (VGR) of 3.04% was observed. There was an evident increase in the TGR during the months of pregnancy. The urinary iodine excretion pattern revealed mild iodine deficiency. 55% of the women had urinary iodine excretion less than 5 mcg/dl with 13.2% having less than 2 mcg/dl. Elevated T3 and T4 levels were observed in 64 and 40% respectively of the women surveyed, while only 1.8% of them had TSH levels higher than the normal range. No significant difference in the levels of thyroid hormone (T3 or T4) was noted between the euthyroid and goitrous subjects. The mean TSH levels in euthyroid women were however significantly higher than those with signs of goitre.