Triage in major incidents: development and external validation of novel machine learning-derived primary and secondary triage tools

BACKGROUND

Major incidents (MIs) are an important cause of death and disability. Triage tools are crucial to identifying priority 1 (P1) patients-those needing time-critical, life-saving interventions. Existing expert opinion-derived tools have limited evidence supporting their use. This study employs machine learning (ML) to develop and validate models for novel primary and secondary triage tools.

METHODS

Adults (16+ years) from the UK Trauma Audit and Research Network (TARN) registry (January 2008-December 2017) served as surrogates for MI victims, with P1 patients identified using predefined criteria. The TARN database was split chronologically into model training and testing (70:30) datasets. Input variables included physiological parameters, age, mechanism and anatomical location of injury. Random forest, extreme gradient boosted tree, logistic regression and decision tree models were trained to predict P1 status, and compared with existing tools (Battlefield Casualty Drills (BCD) Triage Sieve, CareFlight, Modified Physiological Triage Tool, MPTT-24, MSTART, National Ambulance Resilience Unit Triage Sieve and RAMP). Primary and secondary candidate models were selected; the latter was externally validated on patients from the UK military's Joint Theatre Trauma Registry (JTTR).

RESULTS

Models were internally tested in 57 979 TARN patients. The best existing tool was the BCD Triage Sieve (sensitivity 68.2%, area under the receiver operating curve (AUC) 0.688). Inability to breathe spontaneously, presence of chest injury and mental status were most predictive of P1 status. A decision tree model including these three variables exhibited the best test characteristics (sensitivity 73.0%, AUC 0.782), forming the candidate primary tool. The proposed secondary tool (sensitivity 77.9%, AUC 0.817), applicable via a portable device, includes a fourth variable (injury mechanism). This performed favourably on external validation (sensitivity of 97.6%, AUC 0.778) in 5956 JTTR patients.

CONCLUSION

Novel triage tools developed using ML outperform existing tools in a nationally representative trauma population. The proposed primary tool requires external validation prior to consideration for practical use. The secondary tool demonstrates good external validity and may be used to support decision-making by healthcare workers responding to MIs.

A quantitative evaluation of aerosol generation during cardiopulmonary resuscitation

It is unclear if cardiopulmonary resuscitation is an aerosol-generating procedure and whether this poses a risk of airborne disease transmission to healthcare workers and bystanders. Use of airborne transmission precautions during cardiopulmonary resuscitation may confer rescuer protection but risks patient harm due to delays in commencing treatment. To quantify the risk of respiratory aerosol generation during cardiopulmonary resuscitation in humans, we conducted an aerosol monitoring study during out-of-hospital cardiac arrests. Exhaled aerosol was recorded using an optical particle sizer spectrometer connected to the breathing system. Aerosol produced during resuscitation was compared with that produced by control participants under general anaesthesia ventilated with an equivalent respiratory pattern to cardiopulmonary resuscitation. A porcine cardiac arrest model was used to determine the independent contributions of ventilatory breaths, chest compressions and external cardiac defibrillation to aerosol generation. Time-series analysis of participants with cardiac arrest (n = 18) demonstrated a repeating waveform of respiratory aerosol that mapped to specific components of resuscitation. Very high peak aerosol concentrations were generated during ventilation of participants with cardiac arrest with median (IQR [range]) 17,926 (5546-59,209 [1523-242,648]) particles.l-1 , which were 24-fold greater than in control participants under general anaesthesia (744 (309-2106 [23-9099]) particles.l-1 , p < 0.001, n = 16). A substantial rise in aerosol also occurred with cardiac defibrillation and chest compressions. In a complimentary porcine model of cardiac arrest, aerosol recordings showed a strikingly similar profile to the human data. Time-averaged aerosol concentrations during ventilation were approximately 270-fold higher than before cardiac arrest (19,410 (2307-41,017 [104-136,025]) vs. 72 (41-136 [23-268]) particles.l-1 , p = 0.008). The porcine model also confirmed that both defibrillation and chest compressions generate high concentrations of aerosol independent of, but synergistic with, ventilation. In conclusion, multiple components of cardiopulmonary resuscitation generate high concentrations of respiratory aerosol. We recommend that airborne transmission precautions are warranted in the setting of high-risk pathogens, until the airway is secured with an airway device and breathing system with a filter.

War and disaster are forcing a major rethink around mass casualty management

Mass casualty events (MASCAL) do not follow the same rules as typical major incidents. In the West at least, the latter often occur in stable, networked trauma systems, whereas MASCAL are characterised by overwhelming numbers of patients, compounded by protracted scene and transport times, decompensated response systems and significant disruption to infrastructure, command and control.This paper describes the 8Ds approach being taken by the UK Defence Medical Services and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization Emergency Medicine Panel framework to approach MASCAL. The eight domains were derived from literature about management of casualties in the World Wars, and also from approaches taken by civilian health systems as they struggle to manage increasing demand. They are: distribute; decompress; delay; delegate; deliver faster and deliver better; dynamic levels of care; and de-escalate These domains will allow a structured approach to research and innovate around MASCAL, informing better guidelines for their management.

Ten second triage: A novel and pragmatic approach to major incident triage

Triage is a key principle in the effective management of major incidents and has traditionally been performed using an assessment of a casualty's physiology. However, it has become apparent from recent experiences of major incidents that physiological triage may practically not be possible, especially in the early stages of an incident. A key factor is the speed with which it is possible to perform triage, and subsequently, the speed at which key life-saving interventions (e.g., management of external haemorrhage and airway opening manoeuvres) are able to be performed simultaneously as part of the triage process. Addressing this issue was a priority for the review of major incident triage undertaken by NHS England and culminated in the development of the Ten Second Triage (TST) tool.

Paediatric major incident triage: A Delphi process to determine clinicians' attitudes and beliefs within the United Kingdom and Ireland

AIM

Triage is key to effective management of major incidents, yet there is scarce evidence surrounding the optimal method of paediatric major incident triage (MIT). This study aimed to derive consensus on key components of paediatric MIT among healthcare professionals responsible for triage during paediatric major incidents.

METHODS

Two-round online Delphi consensus study delivered July 2021-October 2021, including participants from pre-hospital and hospital specialities responsible for triage during paediatric major incidents. A 5-point Likert scale was used to determine consensus, set a priori at 70%.

RESULTS

111 clinicians completed both rounds; 13 of 17 statements reached consensus. Positive consensus was reached on rescue breaths in mechanisms associated with hypoxia or asphyxiation, mobility assessment as a crude discriminator and use of adult physiology for older children. Whilst positive consensus was reached on the benefits of a single MIT tool across all adult and paediatric age ranges, there was negative consensus in relation to clinical implementation.

CONCLUSIONS

This Delphi study has established consensus among a large group of clinicians involved in the management of major incidents on several key elements of paediatric major incident triage. Further work is required to develop a triage tool that can be implemented based on emerging and ongoing research and which is acceptable to clinicians.

Thyroid dysfunction in pregnancy - a retrospective observational analysis of a Maltese cohort

BACKGROUND

Thyroid dysfunction is known to adversely affect pregnancy. This study evaluates the prevalence of thyroid disorders and explores their association with pregnancy complications/comorbidities and modes of delivery in the Maltese pregnant population over a ten year period.

DESIGN

A population based observational study.

METHOD

We analysed data from the National Obstetrics Information Service of the Department of Health Informations and Research (NOIS) for all births delivered in Malta between 2006 and 2016. Cases identified and recorded by NOIS to have had some form of thyroid dysfunction during pregnancy were confirmed by cross-referencing  with laboratory results found in patients' medical records and/or iSOFT® database system. Using the Statistical Package for the Social sciences (SPSS®)  demographic data, past obstetric and medical history and obstetric outcomes were analysed for pregnancies with thyroid dysfunction and compared to data pertaining to pregnancies in euthyroid patients, that is those with no recorded thyroid dysfunction on NOIS. Chi square/Fisher's exact test were used to compare categorical variables while ANOVA/Mann-Whitney U test was used to compare continuous variables. Statistical significance was defined by a two-sided p value <0.05.

RESULTS

Data was available for 46,283 women (mean [SD] age = 29.2 [5.4] years). 587 pregnancies (1.3%) suffered from thyroid dysfunction. Of these, 67.3% were hypothyroid, 3.2% had hyperthyroidism, 28.3% had isolated hypothyroxinaemia (IHT) while 1.2% had a history of thyroid carcinoma. Patients with IHT and hypothyroidism were older than euthyroid patients (p < 0.001).  IHT and hypothyroid patients had a statistically significant higher body mass index (BMI) than euthyroid women (p=0.001 for hypothyroid women, p = 0.035 for IHT). Hypothyroid  and IHT women were more likely to have had a previous lower segment caesarean section  (p=0.043,  and 0.006 respectively). Type 1 diabetes and gestational diabetes  p = 0.012) were more common associated comorbidities in hypothyroid pregnancies. Offspring of patients with IHT had a higher birth weight than those born to euthyroid patients (p=0.009). Patients with hyperthyroidism were found to have a significantly increased risk of early preterm delivery before 34 weeks of gestation and were also more likely to have suspected intrauterine growth restriction and low mean birth weight. We report no significant differences in past history of obstetric loss, antenatal complications, mode of delivery, gestational age at delivery and postpartum haemorrhage rates across thyroid categories.

CONCLUSIONS

Available evidence suggests that thyroid dysfunction is more likely in the setting of older age, and higher body mass index. Moreover, it impacts on neonatal birth weight, rates of early preterm delivery and intrauterine growth restriction.

New NHS Prehospital Major Incident Triage Tool: from MIMMS to MITT

Triage is a key principle in the effective management of major incidents and is the process by which patients are prioritised on the basis of their clinical acuity. However, work published over the last decade has demonstrated that existing methods of triage perform poorly when trying to identify patients in need of life-saving interventions. As a result, a review of major incident triage was initiated by NHS England with the remit to determine the optimum way in which to triage patients of all ages in a major incident for the UK. This article describes the output from this review, the changes being undertaken to UK major incident triage and the introduction of the new NHS Major Incident Triage Tool from the Spring of 2023.

834 Comparative analysis of major incident triage tools in children – a UK population-based analysis

Aims/Objectives/Background

Triage is a key principle in the effective management of major incidents. There is currently a paucity of evidence to guide the triage of children. The aim of this study was to perform a comparative analysis of nine adult and paediatric triage tools, including the novel ‘Sheffield Paediatric Triage Tool’ (SPTT), assessing their ability in identifying patients needing life-saving interventions (LSI).

Methods/Design

A ten-year retrospective database review of TARN data for paediatric patients (<16years) was performed. Primary outcome was identification of patients receiving one or more LSIs from a previously defined list. Secondary outcomes included mortality and prediction of ISS>15. Primary analysis was conducted on patients with complete pre-hospital physiological data with planned secondary analyses using first recorded physiological data. Performance characteristics were evaluated using sensitivity, specificity, under and over-triage.

Results

15133 patients met TARN inclusion criteria. 4962 (32.8%) had complete pre-hospital physiological data and 8255 (54.5%) had complete first recorded data. Male patients predominated (69.5%), sustaining blunt trauma (95.4%) with a median ISS of 9. 875 patients (17.6%) received at least one LSI.

The SPTT demonstrated the greatest sensitivity of all triage tools at identifying need for LSI (92.2%) but was associated with the highest rate of over-triage (75.0%). Both the PTT (sensitivity 34.1%) and JumpSTART (sensitivity 45.0%) performed less well at identifying LSI. By contrast, the adult MPTT-24 triage tool had the second highest sensitivity (80.8%) with tolerable rates of over-triage (70.2%).

Conclusion

The SPTT and MPTT-24 outperform existing paediatric triage tools at identifying those patients requiring LSIs. This may necessitate a change in recommended practice. Further work is needed to determine the optimum method of paediatric major incident triage, but consideration should be given to simplifying major incident triage by the use of one generic tool (the MPTT-24) for adults and children.

Comparative analysis of major incident triage tools in children: a UK population-based analysis

INTRODUCTION

Triage is a key principle in the effective management of major incidents. There is currently a paucity of evidence to guide the triage of children. The aim of this study was to perform a comparative analysis of nine adult and paediatric triage tools, including the novel 'Sheffield Paediatric Triage Tool' (SPTT), assessing their ability in identifying patients needing life-saving interventions (LSIs).

METHODS

A 10-year (2008-2017) retrospective database review of the Trauma Audit Research Network (TARN) Database for paediatric patients (<16 years) was performed. Primary outcome was identification of patients receiving one or more LSIs from a previously defined list. Secondary outcomes included mortality and prediction of Injury Severity Score (ISS) >15. Primary analysis was conducted on patients with complete prehospital physiological data with planned secondary analyses using first recorded data. Performance characteristics were evaluated using sensitivity, specificity, undertriage and overtriage.

RESULTS

15 133 patients met TARN inclusion criteria. 4962 (32.8%) had complete prehospital physiological data and 8255 (54.5%) had complete first recorded physiological data. The majority of patients were male (69.5%), with a median age of 11.9 years. The overwhelming majority of patients (95.4%) sustained blunt trauma, yielding a median ISS of 9 and overall, 875 patients (17.6%) received at least one LSI. The SPTT demonstrated the greatest sensitivity of all triage tools at identifying need for LSI (92.2%) but was associated with the highest rate of overtriage (75.0%). Both the Paediatric Triage Tape (sensitivity 34.1%) and JumpSTART (sensitivity 45.0%) performed less well at identifying LSI. By contrast, the adult Modified Physiological Triage Tool-24 (MPTT-24) triage tool had the second highest sensitivity (80.8%) with tolerable rates of overtriage (70.2%).

CONCLUSION

The SPTT and MPTT-24 outperform existing paediatric triage tools at identifying those patients requiring LSIs. This may necessitate a change in recommended practice. Further work is needed to determine the optimum method of paediatric major incident triage, but consideration should be given to simplifying major incident triage by the use of one generic tool (the MPTT-24) for adults and children.

Paediatric major incident triage: UK military tool offers best performance in predicting the need for time-critical major surgical and resuscitative intervention

BACKGROUND

Children are frequently injured during major incidents (MI), including terrorist attacks, conflict and natural disasters. Triage facilitates healthcare resource allocation in order to maximise overall survival. A critical function of MI triage tools is to identify patients needing time-critical major resuscitative and surgical intervention (Priority 1 (P1) status). This study compares the performance of 11 MI triage tools in predicting P1 status in children from the UK Trauma Audit and Research Network (TARN) registry.

METHODS

Patients aged <16 years within TARN (January 2008-December 2017) were included. 11 triage tools were applied to patients' first recorded pre-hospital physiology. Patients were retrospectively assigned triage categories (P1, P2, P3, Expectant or Dead) using predefined intervention-based criteria. Tools' performance in <16s were evaluated within four-yearly age subgroups, comparing tool-predicted and intervention-based priority status.

FINDINGS

Amongst 4962 patients, mortality was 1.1% (n = 53); median Injury Severity Score (ISS) was 9 (IQR 9-16). Blunt injuries predominated (94.4%). 1343 (27.1%) met intervention-based criteria for P1, exhibiting greater intensive care requirement (60.2% vs. 8.5%, p < 0.01) and ISS (median 17 vs 9, p < 0.01) compared with P2 patients. The Battlefield Casualty Drills (BCD) Triage Sieve had greatest sensitivity (75.7%) in predicting P1 status in children <16 years, demonstrating a 38.4-49.8% improvement across all subgroups of children <12 years compared with the UK's current Paediatric Triage Tape (PTT). JumpSTART demonstrated low sensitivity in predicting P1 status in 4 to 8 year olds (35.5%) and 0 to 4 year olds (28.5%), and was outperformed by its adult counterpart START (60.6% and 59.6%).

INTERPRETATION

The BCD Triage Sieve had greatest sensitivity in predicting P1 status in this paediatric trauma registry population: we recommend it replaces the PTT in UK practice. Users of JumpSTART may consider alternative tools. We recommend Lerner's triage category definitions when conducting MI evaluations.

The BCD Triage Sieve outperforms all existing major incident triage tools: Comparative analysis using the UK national trauma registry population

BACKGROUND

Natural disasters, conflict, and terrorism are major global causes of death and disability. Central to the healthcare response is triage, vital to ensure the right care is provided to the right patient at the right time. The ideal triage tool has high sensitivity for the highest priority (P1) patients with acceptably low over-triage. This study compared the performance of major incident triage tools in predicting P1 casualty status in adults in the prospective UK Trauma Audit and Research Network (TARN) registry.

METHODS

TARN patients aged 16+ years (January 2008-December 2017) were included. Ten existing triage tools were applied using patients' first recorded pre-hospital physiology. Patients were subsequently assigned triage categories (P1, P2, P3, Expectant or Dead) based on pre-defined, intervention-based criteria. Tool performance was assessed by comparing tool-predicted and intervention-based priority status.

FINDINGS

195,709 patients were included; mortality was 7·0% (n=13,601); median Injury Severity Score (ISS) was 9 (IQR 9-17); 97·1% sustained blunt injuries. 22,144 (11·3%) patients fulfilled intervention-based criteria for P1 status, exhibiting higher mortality (12·8% vs. 5·0%, p<0.001), increased intensive care requirement (52·4% vs 5·0%, p<0.001), and more severe injuries (median ISS 21 vs 9, p<0.001) compared with P2 patients.In 16-64 year olds, the highest performing tool was the Battlefield Casualty Drills (BCD) Triage Sieve (Prediction of P1 status: 70·4% sensitivity, over-triage 70·9%, area under the receiver operating curve (AUC) 0·068 [95%CI 0·676-0·684]). The UK National Ambulance Resilience Unit (NARU) Triage Sieve had sensitivity of 44·9%; over-triage 56·4%; AUC 0·666 (95%CI 0·662-0·670). All tools performed poorly amongst the elderly (65+ years).

INTERPRETATION

The BCD Triage Sieve performed best in this nationally representative population; we recommend it supersede the NARU Triage Sieve as the UK primary major incident triage tool. Validated triage category definitions are recommended for appraising future major incidents.

FUNDING

This study is funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Surgical Reconstruction and Microbiology Research Centre. GVG also acknowledges support from the MRC Heath Data Research UK (HDRUK/CFC/01). The views expressed are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the NIHR, the Department of Health and Social Care, or the Ministry of Defence.

Relationship between the Injury Severity Score and the need for life-saving interventions in trauma patients in the UK

INTRODUCTION

Major trauma is the third leading cause of avoidable mortality in the UK. Defining which patients require care in a major trauma centre is a critical component of developing, evaluating and enhancing regional major trauma systems. Traditionally, trauma patients have been classified using the Injury Severity Score (ISS), but resource-based criteria have been proposed as an alternative. The aim of this study was to investigate the relationship between ISS and the use of life-saving interventions (LSI).

METHODS

Retrospective cohort study using the Trauma Audit Research Network database for all adult patients (aged ≥18 years) between 2006 and 2014. Patients were categorised as needing an LSI if they received one or more interventions from a previously defined list determined by expert consensus.

RESULTS

193 290 patients met study inclusion criteria: 56.9% male, median age 60.0 years (IQR 41.2-78.8) and median ISS 9 (IQR 9-16). The most common mechanism of injury was falls <2 m (52.1%), followed by road traffic collisions (22.2%). 15.1% received one or more LSIs. The probability of a receiving an LSI increased with increasing ISS, but only a low to moderate correlation was evident (0.334, p<0.001). A clinically significant number of cases (5.3% and 7.6%) received an LSI despite having an ISS ≤8 or <15, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

A clinically significant number of adult trauma patients requiring LSIs have an ISS below the traditional definition of major trauma. The traditional definition should be reconsidered and either lowered, or an alternative metric should be used.

Epidemiology and aetiology of paediatric traumatic cardiac arrest in England and Wales

OBJECTIVE

To describe the epidemiology and aetiology of paediatric traumatic cardiac arrest (TCA) in England and Wales.

DESIGN

Population-based analysis of the UK Trauma Audit and Research Network (TARN) database.

PATIENTS AND SETTING

All paediatric and adolescent patients with TCA recorded on the TARN database for a 10-year period (2006-2015).

MEASURES

Patient demographics, Injury Severity Score (ISS), location of TCA ('prehospital only', 'in-hospital only' or 'both'), interventions performed and outcome.

RESULTS

21 710 paediatric patients were included in the database; 129 (0.6%) sustained TCA meeting study inclusion criteria. The majority, 103 (79.8%), had a prehospital TCA. 62.8% were male, with a median age of 11.7 (3.4-16.6) years, and a median ISS of 34 (25-45). 110 (85.3%) had blunt injuries, with road-traffic collision the most common mechanism (n=73, 56.6%). 123 (95.3%) had severe haemorrhage and/or traumatic brain injury. Overall 30-day survival was 5.4% ((95% CI 2.6 to 10.8), n=7). 'Pre-hospital only' TCA was associated with significantly higher survival (n=6) than those with TCA in both 'pre-hospital and in-hospital' (n=1)-13.0% (95% CI 6.1% to 25.7%) and 1.2% (95% CI 0.1% to 6.4%), respectively, p<0.05. The greatest survival (n=6, 10.3% (95% CI 4.8% to 20.8%)) was observed in those transported to a paediatric major trauma centre (MTC) (defined as either a paediatric-only MTC or combined adult-paediatric MTC).

CONCLUSIONS

Survival is possible from the resuscitation of children in TCA, with overall survival comparable to that reported in adults. The highest survival was observed in those with a pre-hospital only TCA, and those who were transported to an MTC. Early identification and aggressive management of paediatric TCA is advocated.

Major incident triage and the evaluation of the Triage Sort as a secondary triage method

INTRODUCTION

A key principle in the effective management of major incidents is triage, the process of prioritising patients on the basis of their clinical acuity. In many countries including the UK, a two-stage approach to triage is practised, with primary triage at the scene followed by a more detailed assessment using a secondary triage process, the Triage Sort. To date, no studies have analysed the performance of the Triage Sort in the civilian setting. The primary aim of this study was to determine the performance of the Triage Sort at predicting the need for life-saving intervention (LSI).

METHODS

Using the Trauma Audit Research Network (TARN) database for all adult patients (>18 years) between 2006 and 2014, we determined which patients received one or more LSIs using a previously defined list. The first recorded hospital physiology was used to categorise patient priority using the Triage Sort, National Ambulance Resilience Unit (NARU) Sieve and the Modified Physiological Triage Tool-24 (MPTT-24). Performance characteristics were evaluated using sensitivity and specificity with statistical analysis using a McNemar's test.

RESULTS

127 233patients (58.1%) had complete data and were included: 55.6% men, aged 61.4 (IQR 43.1-80.0 years), ISS 9 (IQR 9-16), with 24 791 (19.5%) receiving at least one LSI (priority 1). The Triage Sort demonstrated the lowest accuracy of all triage tools at identifying the need for LSI (sensitivity 15.7% (95% CI 15.2 to 16.2) correlating with the highest rate of under-triage (84.3% (95% CI 83.8 to 84.8), but it had the greatest specificity (98.7% (95% CI 98.6 to 98.8).

CONCLUSION

Within a civilian trauma registry population, the Triage Sort demonstrated the poorest performance at identifying patients in need of LSI. Its use as a secondary triage tool should be reviewed, with an urgent need for further research to determine the optimum method of secondary triage.

The minimum inhibitory concentration (MIC) assay with Escherichia coli: An early tier in the environmental hazard assessment of nanomaterials?

There are now over a thousand nano-containing products on the market and the antibacterial properties of some nanomaterials has created interest in their use as cleaning agents, biocides and disinfectants. Engineered nanomaterials (ENMs) are being released into the environment and this raises concerns about their effects on microbes in the receiving ecosystems. This study evaluated the bacterial toxicity of a wide range of nanomaterials with different surface coatings on Escherichia coli K-12 MG1655. The minimum inhibitory concentration (MIC) assay, which quantifies the threshold for growth inhibition in suspensions of bacteria, was used to rank the toxicity of silver (Ag), cupric oxide (CuO), cadmium telluride (CdTe) quantum dots, titanium dioxide (TiO₂), nanodiamonds and multi-walled carbon nanotubes (MWCNTs). Bacteria were exposed for 12 h at 37 °C to a dilution series of the test suspensions in 96-well plates. The precision and accuracy of the method was good with coefficients of variation < 10%. In terms of the measured MIC values, the toxicity order of the ENMs was as follows: CdTe quantum dots ammonium-coated, 6 mg L^-1 > Ag nanoparticles, 12 mg L^-1 > CdTe quantum dots carboxylate-coated, 25 mg L^-1 > CdTe quantum dots polyethylene glycol-coated, 100 mg L^-1. The MIC values were above the highest test concentration used (100 mg L^-1) for CuO, TiO₂, nanodiamonds and MWCNTs, indicating low toxicity. The MIC assay can be a useful tool for the initial steps of ENMs hazard assessment.

Paediatric traumatic cardiac arrest: the development of an algorithm to guide recognition, management and decisions to terminate resuscitation

INTRODUCTION

Paediatric traumatic cardiac arrest (TCA) is a high acuity, low frequency event. Traditionally, survival from TCA has been reported as low, with some believing resuscitation is futile. Within the adult population, there is growing evidence to suggest that with early and aggressive correction of reversible causes, survival from TCA may be comparable with that seen from medical out-of-hospital cardiac arrests. Key to this survival has been the adoption of a standardised approach to resuscitation. The aim of this study was, by a process of consensus, to develop an algorithm for the management of paediatric TCA for adoption in the UK.

METHODS

A modified consensus development meeting of UK experts involved in the management of paediatric TCA was held. Statements discussed at the meeting were drawn from those that did not reach consensus (positive/negative) from a linked three-round online Delphi study. 19 statements relating to the diagnosis, management and futility of paediatric TCA were initially discussed in small groups before each participant anonymously recorded their agreement with the statement using 'yes', 'no' or 'don't know'. In keeping with our Delphi study, consensus was set a priori at 70%. Statements reaching consensus were included in the proposed algorithm.

RESULTS

41 participants attended the meeting. Of the 19 statements discussed, 13 reached positive consensus and were included in the algorithm. A single statement regarding initial rescue breaths reached negative consensus and was excluded. Consensus was not reached for five statements, including the use of vasopressors and thoracotomy for haemorrhage control in blunt trauma.

CONCLUSION

In attempt to standardise our approach to the management of paediatric TCA and to improve outcomes, we present the first consensus-based algorithm specific to the paediatric population. While this algorithm was developed for adoption in the UK, it may be applicable to similar healthcare systems internationally.

Paediatric traumatic cardiac arrest: a Delphi study to establish consensus on definition and management

AIMS

Paediatric traumatic cardiac arrest (TCA) is associated with low survival and poor outcomes. The mechanisms that underlie TCA are different from medical cardiac arrest; the approach to treatment of TCA may therefore also need to differ to optimise outcomes. The aim of this study was to explore the opinion of subject matter experts regarding the diagnosis and treatment of paediatric TCA, and to reach consensus on how best to manage this group of patients.

METHODS

An online Delphi study was conducted over three rounds, with the aim of achieving consensus (defined as 70% agreement) on statements related to the diagnosis and management of paediatric TCA. Participants were invited from paediatric and adult emergency medicine, paediatric anaesthetics, paediatric ICU and paediatric surgery, as well as Paediatric Major Trauma Centre leads and representatives from the Resuscitation Council UK. Statements were informed by literature reviews and were based on elements of APLS resuscitation algorithms as well as some concepts used in the management of adult TCA; they ranged from confirmation of cardiac arrest to the indications for thoracotomy.

RESULTS

73 experts completed all three rounds between June and November 2016. Consensus was reached on 14 statements regarding the diagnosis and management of paediatric TCA; oxygenation and ventilatory support, along with rapid volume replacement with warmed blood, improve survival. The duration of cardiac arrest and the lack of a response to intervention, along with cardiac standstill on ultrasound, help to guide the decision to terminate resuscitation.

CONCLUSION

This study has given a consensus-based framework to guide protocol development in the management of paediatric TCA, though further work is required in other key areas including its acceptability to clinicians.

Triage and the Modified Physiological Triage Tool-24 (MPTT-24)

Major incidents occur on a regular basis. So far in 2017, England has witnessed five terrorism-related major incidents, resulting in approximately 40 fatalities and 400 injured. Triage is a key principle in the effective management of a major incident and involves prioritising patients on the basis of their clinical acuity. This paper describes the limitations associated with existing methods of primary major incident triage and the process of developing a new and improved triage tool-the Modified Physiological Triage Tool-24 (MPTT-24). Whilst the MPTT-24 is likely to be the optimum physiological method for primary major incident triage, it needs to be accompanied by an appropriate secondary triage process. The existing UK military and civilian secondary triage tool, the Triage Sort, is described, which offers little advantage over primary methods for identifying patients who require life-saving intervention. Further research is required to identify the optimum method of secondary triage.

Immunoexpression of Heat Shock Protein 70, Glypican 3, Glutamine Synthetase, and Beta-Catenin in Hepatocellular Carcinoma After Liver Transplantation: Association Between Positive Glypican 3 and Beta-Catenin With the Presence of Larger Nodules

BACKGROUND

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is the 6th leading cause of cancer worldwide. Its recurrence ranges from 6% to 26%. In the literature, many factors are associated with higher risk of recurrence, without a clear definition of the best method that could predict this highly lethal event.

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this study was to evaluate the immunoexpression of immunohistochemical markers: HSP70, glypican 3, glutamine synthetase, and beta-catenin, as well as studying their association with tumor characteristics and prognosis of patients undergoing liver transplantation for HCC.

METHODS

We studied 90 patients who underwent liver transplantation from 1998 to 2012. Afterwards we evaluated factors related to survival, tumor recurrence, and the correlation of expression of the immunohistochemical markers.

RESULTS

Immunohistochemical marker glutamine synthetase showed a positive trend toward better survival. HSP70-positive patients had a higher prevalence of histologic grade III. Patients with positive glypican 3 showed larger lesions and a higher number with AFP >200 ng/mL. Patients with positive beta-catenin showed larger nodules and more with histologic grade III. The association between beta-catenin and glypican 3 showed positive association with larger nodules.

CONCLUSIONS

Most of the markers studied had a correlation with at least one of the variables studied, confirming our hypothesis that these markers can indeed assist in assessing the prognosis of patients undergoing liver transplantation for HCC.

Retraction Note to: L-glutamine supplementation induces insulin resistance in adipose tissue and improves insulin signalling in liver and muscle of rats with diet-induced obesity

In light of forensic evidence indicating duplication and/or manipulation of western blot images the Editor-in-Chief is retracting the article cited above.

Major incident triage and the implementation of a new triage tool, the MPTT-24

Introduction

The Modified Physiological Triage Tool (MPTT) is a recently developed primary triage tool and in comparison with existing tools demonstrates the greatest sensitivity at predicting need for life-saving intervention (LSI) within both military and civilian populations. To improve its applicability, we proposed to increase the upper respiratory rate (RR) threshold to 24 breaths per minute (bpm) to produce the MPTT-24. Our aim was to conduct a feasibility analysis of the proposed MPTT-24, comparing its performance with the existing UK Military Sieve.

Method

A retrospective review of the Joint Theatre Trauma Registry (JTTR) and Trauma Audit Research Network (TARN) databases was performed for all adult (>18 years) patients presenting between 2006–2013 (JTTR) and 2014 (TARN). Patients were defined as priority one (P1) if they received one or more LSIs. Using first recorded hospital RR in isolation, sensitivity and specificity of the ≥24 bpm threshold was compared with the existing threshold (≥22 bpm) at predicting P1 status. Patients were then categorised as P1 or not-P1 by the MPTT, MPTT-24 and the UK Military Sieve.

Results

The MPTT and MPTT-24 outperformed existing UK methods of triage with a statistically significant (p<0.001) increase in sensitivity of between 25.5% and 29.5%. In both populations, the MPTT-24 demonstrated an absolute reduction in sensitivity with an increase in specificity when compared with the MPTT. A statistically significant difference was observed between the MPTT and MPTT-24 in the way they categorised TARN and JTTR cases as P1 (p<0.001).

Conclusions

When compared with the existing MPTT, the MPTT-24 allows for a more rapid triage assessment. Both continue to outperform existing methods of primary major incident triage and within the military setting, the slight increase in undertriage is offset by a reduction in overtriage. We recommend that the MPTT-24 be considered as a replacement to the existing UK Military Sieve.

Aryl hydrocarbon receptor (AHR) is a potential tumour suppressor in pituitary adenomas

Pituitary adenomas (PA) represent the largest group of intracranial neoplasms and yet the molecular mechanisms driving this disease remain largely unknown. The aim of this study was to use a high-throughput screening method to identify molecular pathways that may be playing a significant and consistent role in PA. RNA profiling using microarrays on eight local PAs identified the aryl hydrocarbon receptor (AHR) signalling pathway as a key canonical pathway downregulated in all PA types. This was confirmed by real-time PCR in 31 tumours. The AHR has been shown to regulate cell cycle progression in various cell types; however, its role in pituitary tissue has never been investigated. In order to validate the role of AHR in PA behaviour, further functional studies were undertaken. Over-expression of AHR in GH3 cells revealed a tumour suppressor potential independent of exogenous ligand activation by benzo α-pyrene (BαP). Cell cycle analysis and quantitative PCR of cell cycle regulator genes revealed that both unstimulated and BαP-stimulated AHR reduced E2F-driven transcription and altered expression of cell cycle regulator genes, thus increasing the percentage of cells in G₀/G₁ phase and slowing the proliferation rate of GH3 cells. Co-immunoprecipitation confirmed the interaction between AHR and retinoblastoma (Rb1) protein supporting this as a functional mechanism for the observed reduction. Endogenous Ahr reduction using silencing RNA confirmed the tumour suppressive function of the Ahr. These data support a mechanistic pathway for the putative tumour suppressive role of AHR specifically in PA, possibly through its role as a cell cycle co-regulator, even in the absence of exogenous ligands.

Major incident triage: Derivation and comparative analysis of the Modified Physiological Triage Tool (MPTT)

BACKGROUND

Triage is a key principle in the effective management at a major incident. There are at least three different triage systems in use worldwide and previous attempts to validate them, have revealed limited sensitivity. Within a civilian adult population, there has been no work to develop an improved system.

METHODS

A retrospective database review of the UK Joint Theatre Trauma Registry was performed for all adult patients (>18years) presenting to a deployed Military Treatment Facility between 2006 and 2013. Patients were defined as Priority One if they had received one or more life-saving interventions from a previously defined list. Using first recorded hospital physiological data (HR/RR/GCS), binary logistic regression models were used to derive optimum physiological ranges to predict need for life-saving intervention. This allowed for the derivation of the Modified Physiological Triage Tool-MPTT (GCS≥14, HR≥100, 12<RR≥22). A comparison of the MPTT and existing triage tools was then performed using sensitivities and specificities with 95% confidence intervals. Differences in performance were assessed for statistical significance using a McNemar test with Bonferroni correction.

RESULTS

Of 6095 patients, 3654 (60.0%) had complete data and were included in the study, with 1738 (47.6%) identified as priority one. Existing triage tools had a maximum sensitivity of 50.9% (Modified Military Sieve) and specificity of 98.4% (Careflight). The MPTT (sensitivity 69.9%, 95% CI 0.677-0.720, specificity 65.3%, 95% CI 0.632-0.675) showed an absolute increase in sensitivity over existing tools ranging from 19.0% (Modified Military Sieve) to 45.1% (Triage Sieve). There was a statistically significant difference between the performance (p<0.001) between the MPTT and the Modified Military Sieve.

DISCUSSION & CONCLUSION

The performance characteristics of the MPTT exceed existing major incident triage systems, whilst maintaining an appropriate rate of over-triage and minimising under-triage within the context of predicting the need for a life-saving intervention in a military setting. Further work is required to both prospectively validate this system and to identify its performance within a civilian environment, prior to recommending its use in the major incident setting.

Prevalence of obesity in Malta

Background

Obesity is a global epidemic with the Mediterranean island of Malta being no exception. The World Health Organization (WHO) has identified Malta as one of the European countries with the highest obesity prevalence.

Method

A cross‐sectional study was conducted (2014–2016) under the auspices of the University of Malta. The prevalence of overweight‐obesity in Malta was calculated and then age stratified for comparisons with previous studies.

Results

The study identified 69.75% (95% CI: 68.32–71.18) of the Maltese population to be either overweight or obese. The men overweight/obese prevalence (76.28% 95% CI: 74.41–78.14) was statistically higher than that for women (63.06% 95% CI: 60.92–65.20) (p = 0.0001). Age stratification revealed that both genders had the highest overweight prevalence rates between 55 and 64 years (Men = 23.25% 95% CI: 20.43–26.33; Women = 24.68% 95% CI: 21.44–28.22). Men obesity prevalence rates were highest in the 35 to 44 years group (22.52% 95% CI: 19.65–25.68) while for women it was highest in the 55 to 64 years group (28.90%, 95% CI: 25.44–30.63).

Conclusion

Over a 35‐year period, an overall decrease in the normal and overweight BMI categories occurred with an increase in the prevalence of obesity. An exception was observed in the women, where the prevalence of normal BMI increased over this time period. Also, it appears that while the total population obesity prevalence increased (for 2016), a percentage of the women have shifted from an obese to an overweight status.

Major incident triage: A consensus based definition of the essential life-saving interventions during the definitive care phase of a major incident

INTRODUCTION

Triage is a key principle in the effective management of major incidents. The process currently relies on algorithms assigning patients to specific triage categories; there is, however, little guidance as to what these categories represent. Previously, these algorithms were validated against injury severity scores, but it is accepted now that the need for life-saving intervention is a more important outcome. However, the definition of a life-saving intervention is unclear. The aim of this study was to define what constitutes a life-saving intervention, in order to facilitate the definition of an adult priority one patient during the definitive care phase of a major incident.

METHODS

We conducted a modified Delphi study, using a panel of subject matter experts drawn from the United Kingdom and Republic of South Africa with a background in Emergency Care or Major Incident Management. The study was conducted using an online survey tool, over three rounds between July and December 2013. A four point Likert scale was used to seek consensus for 50 possible interventions, with a consensus level set at 70%.

RESULTS

24 participants completed all three rounds of the Delphi, with 32 life-saving interventions reaching consensus.

CONCLUSIONS

This study provides a consensus definition of what constitutes a life-saving intervention in the context of an adult, priority one patient during the definitive care phase of a major incident. The definition will contribute to further research into major incident triage, specifically in terms of validation of an adult major incident triage tool.