Triage in major incidents: development and external validation of novel machine learning-derived primary and secondary triage tools

BACKGROUND

Major incidents (MIs) are an important cause of death and disability. Triage tools are crucial to identifying priority 1 (P1) patients-those needing time-critical, life-saving interventions. Existing expert opinion-derived tools have limited evidence supporting their use. This study employs machine learning (ML) to develop and validate models for novel primary and secondary triage tools.

METHODS

Adults (16+ years) from the UK Trauma Audit and Research Network (TARN) registry (January 2008-December 2017) served as surrogates for MI victims, with P1 patients identified using predefined criteria. The TARN database was split chronologically into model training and testing (70:30) datasets. Input variables included physiological parameters, age, mechanism and anatomical location of injury. Random forest, extreme gradient boosted tree, logistic regression and decision tree models were trained to predict P1 status, and compared with existing tools (Battlefield Casualty Drills (BCD) Triage Sieve, CareFlight, Modified Physiological Triage Tool, MPTT-24, MSTART, National Ambulance Resilience Unit Triage Sieve and RAMP). Primary and secondary candidate models were selected; the latter was externally validated on patients from the UK military's Joint Theatre Trauma Registry (JTTR).

RESULTS

Models were internally tested in 57 979 TARN patients. The best existing tool was the BCD Triage Sieve (sensitivity 68.2%, area under the receiver operating curve (AUC) 0.688). Inability to breathe spontaneously, presence of chest injury and mental status were most predictive of P1 status. A decision tree model including these three variables exhibited the best test characteristics (sensitivity 73.0%, AUC 0.782), forming the candidate primary tool. The proposed secondary tool (sensitivity 77.9%, AUC 0.817), applicable via a portable device, includes a fourth variable (injury mechanism). This performed favourably on external validation (sensitivity of 97.6%, AUC 0.778) in 5956 JTTR patients.

CONCLUSION

Novel triage tools developed using ML outperform existing tools in a nationally representative trauma population. The proposed primary tool requires external validation prior to consideration for practical use. The secondary tool demonstrates good external validity and may be used to support decision-making by healthcare workers responding to MIs.

Landiolol and Organ Failure in Patients With Septic Shock: The STRESS-L Randomized Clinical Trial

Importance

Patients with septic shock undergo adrenergic stress, which affects cardiac, immune, inflammatory, and metabolic pathways. β-Blockade may attenuate the adverse effects of catecholamine exposure and has been associated with reduced mortality.

Objectives

To assess the efficacy and safety of landiolol in patients with tachycardia and established septic shock requiring prolonged (>24 hours) vasopressor support.

Design, Setting, and Participants

An open-label, multicenter, randomized trial involving 126 adults (≥18 years) with tachycardia (heart rate ≥95/min) and established septic shock treated for at least 24 hours with continuous norepinephrine (≥0.1 μg/kg/min) in 40 UK National Health Service intensive care units. The trial ran from April 2018 to December 2021, with early termination in December 2021 due to a signal of possible harm.

Intervention

Sixty-three patients were randomized to receive standard care and 63 to receive landiolol infusion.

Main Outcomes and Measures

The primary outcome was the mean Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score from randomization through 14 days. Secondary outcomes included mortality at days 28 and 90 and the number of adverse events in each group.

Results

The trial was stopped prematurely on the advice of the independent data monitoring committee because it was unlikely to demonstrate benefit and because of possible harm. Of a planned 340 participants, 126 (37%) were enrolled (mean age, 55.6 years [95% CI, 52.7 to 58.5 years]; 58.7% male). The mean (SD) SOFA score in the landiolol group was 8.8 (3.9) compared with 8.1 (3.2) in the standard care group (mean difference [MD], 0.75 [95% CI, -0.49 to 2.0]; P = .24). Mortality at day 28 after randomization in the landiolol group was 37.1% (23 of 62) and 25.4% (16 of 63) in the standard care group (absolute difference, 11.7% [95% CI, -4.4% to 27.8%]; P = .16). Mortality at day 90 after randomization was 43.5% (27 of 62) in the landiolol group and 28.6% (18 of 63) in the standard care group (absolute difference, 15% [95% CI, -1.7% to 31.6%]; P = .08). There were no differences in the number of patients having at least one adverse event.

Conclusion and Relevance

Among patients with septic shock with tachycardia and treated with norepinephrine for more than 24 hours, an infusion of landiolol did not reduce organ failure measured by the SOFA score over 14 days from randomization. These results do not support the use of landiolol for managing tachycardia among patients treated with norepinephrine for established septic shock.

Trial Registration

EU Clinical Trials Register Eudra CT: 2017-001785-14; isrctn.org Identifier: ISRCTN12600919.

A cluster randomised, 16-week, parallel-group multicentre trial to compare the effectiveness of a digital school-based cognitive behavioural resilience/wellbeing-building intervention targeting emotional and behavioural problems in vulnerable Year 4 primary school children in whole classes, to the usual school curriculum: a study protocol to the "CUES for Schools" trial

BACKGROUND

Around 10% of school-aged children experience mental health difficulties. Many more are 'vulnerable': experiencing emotional and/or behavioural problems reaching clinical levels, and thus at greatest risk of future mental illness. The trial aim is to evaluate the effectiveness of the CUES for schools programme in reducing emotional and behavioural problems in vulnerable children.

METHODS

The "CUES for Schools" study is a multicentre cluster randomised controlled trial in primary schools in south east England. Schools will be randomised to receive the usual school curriculum, or the CUES programme (1:1). We aim to enrol 74 schools (5550 children including 2220 vulnerable children). CUES is a whole-class teacher-facilitated interactive digital cognitive-behavioural intervention, delivered as 24 short (20-min) modules over 12 weeks, targeting emotional/behavioural regulation skills. Children self-report emotional/behavioural problems at baseline, 8, and 16 weeks, and wellbeing and cognitive vulnerability at 0 and 16 weeks. Adverse events are assessed at 8 and 16 weeks. Teachers rate classroom behaviour at baseline and 16 weeks. School senior leadership teams and individual teachers consent to involvement in the study; parents can opt their child out of CUES sessions, assessments, or research. Children can similarly opt out and assent to research participation. The primary objective of this trial is to evaluate the effectiveness of CUES for schools compared to the usual school curriculum in improving emotional/behavioural problems for vulnerable Year 4 (8-9 years old) children at 16 weeks post-randomisation, as measured using a standardised questionnaire designed for primary schools. The secondary objective is to investigate the impact of the CUES for schools programme on both vulnerable and non-vulnerable children on wellbeing and teacher-rated classroom behaviour.

DISCUSSION

The study will show whether CUES for schools is more effective than the usual curriculum in reducing emotional and behavioural problems in vulnerable Year 4 children, and thus reducing the risk of mental health difficulties in later adolescent and adult life. As a digital, teacher-facilitated intervention, CUES for schools can be readily implemented, at minimal cost. If effective, CUES for schools therefore has the potential to reduce the impact of emotional/behavioural difficulties on children's learning, behaviour, and relationships and the burden of future mental health morbidity.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

Trial Registration ISRCTN11445338. Registered on September 12, 2022.

Prevalence of physical frailty, including risk factors, up to 1 year after hospitalisation for COVID-19 in the UK: a multicentre, longitudinal cohort study

Background

The scale of COVID-19 and its well documented long-term sequelae support a need to understand long-term outcomes including frailty.

Methods

This prospective cohort study recruited adults who had survived hospitalisation with clinically diagnosed COVID-19 across 35 sites in the UK (PHOSP-COVID). The burden of frailty was objectively measured using Fried's Frailty Phenotype (FFP). The primary outcome was the prevalence of each FFP group-robust (no FFP criteria), pre-frail (one or two FFP criteria) and frail (three or more FFP criteria)-at 5 months and 1 year after discharge from hospital. For inclusion in the primary analysis, participants required complete outcome data for three of the five FFP criteria. Longitudinal changes across frailty domains are reported at 5 months and 1 year post-hospitalisation, along with risk factors for frailty status. Patient-perceived recovery and health-related quality of life (HRQoL) were retrospectively rated for pre-COVID-19 and prospectively rated at the 5 month and 1 year visits. This study is registered with ISRCTN, number ISRCTN10980107.

Findings

Between March 5, 2020, and March 31, 2021, 2419 participants were enrolled with FFP data. Mean age was 57.9 (SD 12.6) years, 933 (38.6%) were female, and 429 (17.7%) had received invasive mechanical ventilation. 1785 had measures at both timepoints, of which 240 (13.4%), 1138 (63.8%) and 407 (22.8%) were frail, pre-frail and robust, respectively, at 5 months compared with 123 (6.9%), 1046 (58.6%) and 616 (34.5%) at 1 year. Factors associated with pre-frailty or frailty were invasive mechanical ventilation, older age, female sex, and greater social deprivation. Frail participants had a larger reduction in HRQoL compared with before their COVID-19 illness and were less likely to describe themselves as recovered.

Interpretation

Physical frailty and pre-frailty are common following hospitalisation with COVID-19. Improvement in frailty was seen between 5 and 12 months although two-thirds of the population remained pre-frail or frail. This suggests comprehensive assessment and interventions targeting pre-frailty and frailty beyond the initial illness are required.

Funding

UK Research and Innovation and National Institute for Health Research.

AB0034 INVESTIGATING THE ROLE OF ACCELERATED IMMUNESENESCENCE IN THE PATHOGENESIS OF RHEUMATOID ARTHRITIS

Background

Advancing age is recognised as a major risk factor for autoimmune inflammatory conditions, such as Rheumatoid Arthritis (RA). Despite strong associations with older age we understand little of the role ageing processes play in disease pathogenesis in RA. The immune system undergoes a dramatic remodelling with age, termed immunesenescence, which contributes towards increased risk of autoimmunity1. Previous research in patients with established RA has shown certain features of immunesenescence, such as thymic atrophy and telomere shortening in T cells, at a younger age2,3.

Objectives

In this study we aimed to determine if immunesenescence is seen in the very earliest stages of RA and therefore might be a contributor to RA pathogenesis rather than a result of the disease.

Methods

We have assessed aspects of the aged immune phenotype by immunostaining and flow cytometry4 in adults with arthralgia (n=25), undifferentiated arthritis (UA; n=41), confirmed RA of less than 3 months (n=25) and more than 3 months duration (n=78) and compared these to age and sex matched healthy controls (n=38). Nanostring methodology was used to determine gene expression changes associated with the development of RA.

Results

We observed increased features of T and B cell immunesenescence in DMARD-naïve recently diagnosed RA patients driven by reduced naïve T cells (p<0.01) and B cells (p<0.01), increased senescent (CD28-ve, CD57+ve, KLRG1+ve) T cells (p<0.01), an increased Th17/Treg ratio (p<0.01) and increased frequency of age-associated B cells (p<0.01). With the exception of naïve T cell frequency, which was reduced in UA patients (p<0.05), these changes were not seen in the very early stages of RA, namely patients with arthralgia and UA. These data suggest that immunesenescence only occurs once disease is established. Furthermore, using nanostring we have identified several biological ageing processes (DNA damage, autophagy) associated with this state of immunesenescence in RA.

Conclusion

Accelerated immune ageing is an early feature of RA and biological ageing processes represent novel targets to modulate disease progression.

References

[1]Duggal NA, Upton JA, Phillips AC, Sapey E, Lord JM (2013) An age-related numerical and functional deficit in CD19+CD24hiCD38hi B cells is associated with an increase in systemic autoimmunity. Aging Cell 12:873-881.

[2]Goronzy, J.J. and Weyand CM (2001). Thymic function and peripheral T-cell homeostasis in rheumatoid arthritis. Trends Immunol. 22(5):251-5.

[3]Steer SE, Williams FMK, Kato B, Gardner JP, Norman PJ, Hall MA, Kimra M, Vaughan R, Aviv A, Spector T (2007) Reduced telomere length in rheumatoid arthritis in independent of disease activity and duration. Ann Rheum Dis 66:476-480.

[4]Duggal NA, Pollock RD, Lazarus NR, Harridge S, Lord JM (2018). Major features of immunesenescence, including reduced thymic output, are ameliorated by high levels of physical activity in adulthood. Aging Cell 17:e12750

Disclosure of Interests

None declared

AB0091 INCREASED BIOLOGICAL AGE IN MALE PARTICIPANTS OF SWEDISH AND UK RHEUMATOID ARTHRITIS COHORTS IS NOT LINKED TO DISEASE

Background

Immunesenescence in the adaptive immune system, subsequent to thymic involution, results in compromised immunity and increased susceptibility to autoimmune disease and chronic inflammation. There are reports in the literature that immunesenescence, including thymic atrophy and telomere shortening, is accelerated in patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA)1. What is unclear is whether RA includes accelerated biological ageing overall in addition to immune ageing which may help to explain the increased risk of age-related diseases in RA2. Recent studies have identified a set of DNA methylated sites across the genome that are highly correlated with chronological age and mortality, termed epigenetic clocks3,4 or DNAm age (DNAma), and can be used to determine an individual’s biological age.

Objectives

The aim of our study is to determine if the biological epigenetic clocks of RA patients are accelerated.

Methods

We evaluated the Horvath3 and Hannum4 epigenetic clocks of control and RA patients using published DNAm data sets, accessions GSE42861 (EIRA, Swedish cohort of 342 RA patients and 328 non-RA controls) and E-MTAB-6988 (77 RA discordant monozygotic twins).

Results

We did not detect significant differences between DNAma of RA and non-RA twins. Similarly, there were no significant differences between the DNAma of RA patients and controls from the Swedish EIRA cohort. However, we detected a significant acceleration in DNAma of male discordant twins, both RA and non-RA, by 5.4 years (p=3.29e-5) and 2.8 years (p=0.04) using the Hannum and Horvath clocks, respectively. Male participants, both control and RA patients, from the EIRA cohort also exhibited an accelerated DNAma, by 1.5 years (p=7.55e-5) using the Hannum clock but using the Horvath clock a significant DNAma acceleration, by 1.4 years (p=0.002) was detected in male RA patients from the EIRA cohort.

Conclusion

Overall, we detected a significant biological age acceleration in male participants from both RA and control groups and only found a significant difference between DNAma of Non-RA controls and RA patients for one of the epigenetic clocks. Further analysis using additional cohort data and biological clock algorithms is needed to confirm our findings.

References

[1]Goronzy, J.J. and Weyand CM (2001). Thymic function and peripheral T-cell homeostasis in rheumatoid arthritis. Trends Immunol. 22(5):251-5.

[2]Meune C, et al. (2009) Trends in cardiovascular mortality in patients with rheumatoid arthritis over 50 years: a systematic review and meta-analysis of cohort studies. Rheumatol 48:1309-1313.

[3]Horvath S (2013) DNA methylation age of human tissues and cell types. Genome Biol 14:R115.

[4]Hannum G, et al (2013) Genome-wide Methylation Profiles Reveal Quantitative Views of Human Aging Rates. Mol Cell 49:359-367.

Acknowledgements

The study was funded by FOREUM

Disclosure of Interests

None declared

Therapies for Long COVID in non-hospitalised individuals: from symptoms, patient-reported outcomes and immunology to targeted therapies (The TLC Study)

INTRODUCTION

Individuals with COVID-19 frequently experience symptoms and impaired quality of life beyond 4-12 weeks, commonly referred to as Long COVID. Whether Long COVID is one or several distinct syndromes is unknown. Establishing the evidence base for appropriate therapies is needed. We aim to evaluate the symptom burden and underlying pathophysiology of Long COVID syndromes in non-hospitalised individuals and evaluate potential therapies.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

A cohort of 4000 non-hospitalised individuals with a past COVID-19 diagnosis and 1000 matched controls will be selected from anonymised primary care records from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink, and invited by their general practitioners to participate on a digital platform (Atom5). Individuals will report symptoms, quality of life, work capability and patient-reported outcome measures. Data will be collected monthly for 1 year.Statistical clustering methods will be used to identify distinct Long COVID-19 symptom clusters. Individuals from the four most prevalent clusters and two control groups will be invited to participate in the BioWear substudy which will further phenotype Long COVID symptom clusters by measurement of immunological parameters and actigraphy.We will review existing evidence on interventions for postviral syndromes and Long COVID to map and prioritise interventions for each newly characterised Long COVID syndrome. Recommendations will be made using the cumulative evidence in an expert consensus workshop. A virtual supportive intervention will be coproduced with patients and health service providers for future evaluation.Individuals with lived experience of Long COVID will be involved throughout this programme through a patient and public involvement group.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

Ethical approval was obtained from the Solihull Research Ethics Committee, West Midlands (21/WM/0203). Research findings will be presented at international conferences, in peer-reviewed journals, to Long COVID patient support groups and to policymakers.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

1567490.

Fetal central nervous system anomalies: When should we offer exome sequencing?

OBJECTIVE

To investigate the detection of pathogenic variants using exome sequencing in an international cohort of fetuses with central nervous system (CNS) anomalies.

METHODS

We reviewed trio exome sequencing (ES) results for two previously reported unselected cohorts (Prenatal Assessment of Genomes and Exomes (PAGE) and CUIMC) to identify fetuses with CNS anomalies with unremarkable karyotypes and chromosomal microarrays. Variants were classified according to ACMG guidelines and association of pathogenic variants with specific types of CNS anomalies explored.

RESULTS

ES was performed in 268 pregnancies with a CNS anomaly identified using prenatal ultrasound . Of those with an isolated, single, CNS anomaly, 7/97 (7.2%) had a likely pathogenic/pathogenic (LP/P) variant. This includes 3/23 (13%) fetuses with isolated mild ventriculomegaly and 3/10 (30%) fetuses with isolated agenesis of the corpus callosum. Where there were multiple anomalies within the CNS, 12/63 (19%) had LP/P variants. Of the 108 cases with CNS and other organ system anomalies, 18 (16.7%) had LP/P findings.

CONCLUSION

ES is an important tool in the prenatal evaluation of fetuses with any CNS anomaly. The rate of LP/P variants tends to be highest in fetuses with multiple CNS anomalies and multisystem anomalies, however, ES may also be of benefit for isolated CNS anomalies.

Fetal hydrops and the Incremental yield of Next-generation sequencing over standard prenatal Diagnostic testing (FIND) study: prospective cohort study and meta-analysis

OBJECTIVE

To determine the incremental yield of exome sequencing (ES) over chromosomal microarray analysis (CMA) or karyotyping in prenatally diagnosed non-immune hydrops fetalis (NIHF).

METHODS

A prospective cohort study (comprising an extended group of the Prenatal Assessment of Genomes and Exomes (PAGE) study) was performed which included 28 cases of prenatally diagnosed NIHF undergoing trio ES following negative CMA or karyotyping. These cases were combined with data from a systematic review of the literature. MEDLINE, EMBASE, CINAHL and ClinicalTrials.gov databases were searched electronically (January 2000 to October 2020) for studies reporting on the incremental yield of ES over CMA or karyotyping in fetuses with prenatally detected NIHF. Inclusion criteria for the systematic review were: (i) at least two cases of NIHF undergoing sequencing; (ii) testing initiated based on prenatal ultrasound-based phenotype; and (iii) negative CMA or karyotyping result. The incremental diagnostic yield of ES was assessed in: (i) all cases of NIHF; (ii) isolated NIHF; (iii) NIHF associated with an additional fetal structural anomaly; and (iv) NIHF according to severity (i.e. two vs three or more cavities affected).

RESULTS

In the extended PAGE study cohort, the additional diagnostic yield of ES over CMA or karyotyping was 25.0% (7/28) in all NIHF cases, 21.4% (3/14) in those with isolated NIHF and 28.6% (4/14) in those with non-isolated NIHF. In the meta-analysis, the pooled incremental yield based on 21 studies (306 cases) was 29% (95% CI, 24-34%; P < 0.00001; I²  = 0%) in all NIHF, 21% (95% CI, 13-30%; P < 0.00001; I²  = 0%) in isolated NIHF and 39% (95% CI, 30-49%; P < 0.00001; I²  = 1%) in NIHF associated with an additional fetal structural anomaly. In the latter group, congenital limb contractures were the most prevalent additional structural anomaly associated with a causative pathogenic variant, occurring in 17.3% (19/110) of cases. The incremental yield did not differ significantly according to hydrops severity. The most common genetic disorders identified were RASopathies, occurring in 30.3% (27/89) of cases with a causative pathogenic variant, most frequently due to a PTPN11 variant (44.4%; 12/27). The predominant inheritance pattern in causative pathogenic variants was autosomal dominant in monoallelic disease genes (57.3%; 51/89), with most being de novo (86.3%; 44/51).

CONCLUSIONS

Use of prenatal next-generation sequencing in both isolated and non-isolated NIHF should be considered in the development of clinical pathways. Given the wide range of potential syndromic diagnoses and heterogeneity in the prenatal phenotype of NIHF, exome or whole-genome sequencing may prove to be a more appropriate testing approach than a targeted gene panel testing strategy. © 2021 The Authors. Ultrasound in Obstetrics & Gynecology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of International Society of Ultrasound in Obstetrics and Gynecology.

AB0803 EXPERIENCES OF SCREENING AND DIAGNOSIS FROM THE PERSPECTIVE OF PATIENTS WITH PSORIASIS AND PSORIATIC ARTHRITIS (PSA)

Background:

Psoriatic arthritis (PsA) is an inflammatory arthritis characterised by pain, swelling and stiffness in the joints and affects approximately 0.3 to 1.02% of the UK population [1]. PsA may result in limited physical function and reduced quality of life [2] and is associated with work disability and unemployment [3]. Patients who have the inflammatory skin condition, psoriasis, are at greater risk of developing PsA than those without.

Objectives:

There is no definitive test for PsA. It is usually diagnosed by rheumatologists in secondary care, after referral from primary care. Evidence suggests a delay in diagnosis results in worse outcomes for patients. This study is nested within a randomised controlled trial (RCT) of a new clinical care pathway. The RCT is testing whether screening primary care patients with psoriasis for symptoms of PsA leads to earlier diagnosis and improved outcomes, compared to usual care. This qualitative study explored the acceptability and impact of screening.

Methods:

Telephone interviews were conducted with patients with psoriasis from two secondary UK care centres taking part in the RCT. The semi-structured interviews explored patients’ thoughts and feelings around screening, the impact of the screening outcome and any changes they made as a result. The semi-structured format allowed flexibility to ask questions that probed more deeply and develop new lines of enquiry based on patients’ responses. Patients who did and did not receive a diagnosis of PsA were interviewed.

Results:

Twenty-four patients participated in the study (15 women / 9 men) ranging in age from 35 to 73 years old. The length of time patients had psoriasis ranged from 6 to 60 years. Eleven patients were diagnosed with PsA. A Framework Analysis Approach was used to analyse the data. This allowed for an exploration of the predefined areas (the screening process) as well as remaining open to capturing other related experiences and views of patients. Four main themes represent the data (Table 1).

Table 1.Main themeSub-themes1. Living with psoriasis and psoriatic arthritis:1. Understanding of psoriasis – causes, symptoms, treatments‘It’s [psoriasis] socially debilitating…makes you look a real mess’2. Effects of psoriasis on self, personal and working life‘It’s almost as if the world’s on your shoulders’3. Awareness of PsA2. Experience of screening:1. Thoughts and feelings prior to screening‘I was able to talk and be listened to’2. Valuing ‘high quality’ care‘It’s a lightbulb moment…explained why things were a bit stiff and achy’3. Impact of screening outcome3. Gaining control:1. Increased awareness and knowledge of psoriasis and PsA‘element of surprise that this arthritis should be connected to it [psoriasis]’2. Improved self-management‘You’ve got to learn to listen to your body’3. Early diagnosis of PsA4. Future screening programs:1. Changes to questionnaires‘there weren’t really any questions about were you in pain’2. Use of case studies, sign-posting‘support groups…peer support is crucial with long-term conditions’3. Removing barriers to screening

Conclusion:

This study indicates screening was viewed as a positive and reassuring experience. Patients valued the fact that screening appointments were not rushed and felt they were being listened to. Patients valued learning about psoriasis and PsA and referred to making changes beneficial to their health. Screening enabled patients to get the help they needed if diagnosed, provided relief if not diagnosed, and sometimes led to the diagnosis of a different condition.

References:

[1]Gladman DD, Antoni C, Mease P, Clegg DO, Nash P. Psoriatic arthritis: epidemiology, clinical features, course, and outcome. Ann Rheum Dis 2005;64(Suppl 2):ii14–7

[2]Tillett W, de-Vries C, McHugh NJ. Work disability in psoriatic arthritis: a systematic review. Rheumatology 2012;51:275–83.

[3]Alinaghi F, Calov M, Kristensen LE et al. Prevalence of psoriatic arthritis in patients with psoriasis: a systematic review and meta-analysis of observational and clinical studies. J Am Acad Dermatol 2019;80:251–65.e19

Acknowledgements:

On behalf of the PROMPT study team.

Disclosure of Interests:

None declared

Nonsteroidal Antiinflammatory Drugs and Susceptibility to COVID-19

Objective

To identify whether active use of nonsteroidal antiinflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) increases susceptibility to developing suspected or confirmed coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID‐19) compared to the use of other common analgesics.

Methods

We performed a propensity score–matched cohort study with active comparators, using a large UK primary care data set. The cohort consisted of adult patients age ≥18 years with osteoarthritis (OA) who were followed up from January 30 to July 31, 2020. Patients prescribed an NSAID (excluding topical preparations) were compared to those prescribed either co‐codamol (paracetamol and codeine) or co‐dydramol (paracetamol and dihydrocodeine). A total of 13,202 patients prescribed NSAIDs were identified, compared to 12,457 patients prescribed the comparator drugs. The primary outcome measure was the documentation of suspected or confirmed COVID‐19, and the secondary outcome measure was all‐cause mortality.

Results

During follow‐up, the incidence rates of suspected/confirmed COVID‐19 were 15.4 and 19.9 per 1,000 person‐years in the NSAID‐exposed group and comparator group, respectively. Adjusted hazard ratios for suspected or confirmed COVID‐19 among the unmatched and propensity score–matched OA cohorts, using data from clinical consultations in primary care settings, were 0.82 (95% confidence interval [95% CI] 0.62–1.10) and 0.79 (95% CI 0.57–1.11), respectively, and adjusted hazard ratios for the risk of all‐cause mortality were 0.97 (95% CI 0.75–1.27) and 0.85 (95% CI 0.61–1.20), respectively. There was no effect modification by age or sex.

Conclusion

No increase in the risk of suspected or confirmed COVID‐19 or mortality was observed among patients with OA in a primary care setting who were prescribed NSAIDs as compared to those who received comparator drugs. These results are reassuring and suggest that in the absence of acute illness, NSAIDs can be safely prescribed during the ongoing pandemic.

Effectiveness, safety and acceptability of no-test medical abortion (termination of pregnancy) provided via telemedicine: a national cohort study

OBJECTIVE

To compare outcomes before and after implementation of medical abortion (termination of pregnancy) without ultrasound via telemedicine.

DESIGN

Cohort analysis.

SETTING

The three main abortion providers.

POPULATION OR SAMPLE

Medical abortions at home at ≤69 days' gestation in two cohorts: traditional model (in-person with ultrasound, n = 22 158) from January to March 2020 versus telemedicine-hybrid model (either in person or via telemedicine without ultrasound, n = 29 984, of whom 18 435 had no-test telemedicine) between April and June 2020. Sample (n = 52 142) comprises 85% of all medical abortions provided nationally.

METHODS

Data from electronic records and incident databases were used to compare outcomes between cohorts, adjusted for baseline differences.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Treatment success, serious adverse events, waiting times, gestation at treatment, acceptability.

RESULTS

Mean waiting time from referral to treatment was 4.2 days shorter in the telemedicine-hybrid model and more abortions were provided at ≤6 weeks' gestation (40% versus 25%, P < 0.001). Treatment success (98.8% versus 98.2%, P > 0.999), serious adverse events (0.02% versus 0.04%, P = 0.557) and incidence of ectopic pregnancy (0.2% versus 0.2%, P = 0.796) were not different between models. In the telemedicine-hybrid model, 0.04% were estimated to be over 10 weeks' gestation at the time of the abortion; all were completed safely at home. Within the telemedicine-hybrid model, effectiveness was higher with telemedicine than in-person care (99.2% versus 98.1%, P < 0.001). Acceptability of telemedicine was high (96% satisfied) and 80% reported a future preference for telemedicine.

CONCLUSIONS

A telemedicine-hybrid model for medical abortion that includes no-test telemedicine and treatment without an ultrasound is effective, safe, acceptable and improves access to care.

TWEETABLE ABSTRACT

Compelling evidence from 52 142 women shows no-test telemedicine abortion is safe, effective and improves care.

Study into the reversal of septic shock with landiolol (beta blockade): STRESS-L Study protocol for a randomised trial

INTRODUCTION

In 2013, a single-centre study reported the safe use of esmolol in patients with septic shock and tachycardia who required vasopressor therapy for more than 24 hours. Although not powered to detect a change in mortality, marked improvements were seen in survival (adjusted HR, 0.39; 95% CI, 0.26 to 0.59; p<0.001). Beta blockers are one of the most studied groups of drugs but their effect in septic shock is poorly understood; proposed mechanisms include not only the modulation of cardiac function but also immunomodulation.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

STRESS-L is a randomised, open-label, non-blinded clinical trial which is enrolling a total of 340 patients with septic shock as defined by Sepsis-3 consensus definition and a tachycardia (heart rate ≥95 beats per minute (bpm)) after vasopressor treatment of at least 24 hours. Standard randomisation (1:1 ratio) allocates patients to receive usual care (according to international standards) versus usual care and a continuous landiolol infusion to reduce the heart rate between 80 and 94 bpm. The primary endpoint is the mean Sequential Organ Failure Assessment score over 14 days from entry into the trial and while in intensive care unit. Results will inform current clinical practice guidelines.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

This trial has clinical trial authorisation from the UK competent authority, the Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency, and has been approved by the East of England-Essex Research Ethics Committee (reference: 17/EE/0368).The results of the trial will be reported first to trial collaborators. The main report will be drafted by the trial coordinating team, and the final version will be agreed by the Trial Steering Committee before submission for publication, on behalf of the collaboration.

REGISTRATION

The trial is funded by the National Institute for Health Research Efficacy and Mechanism Evaluation (EME) (Project Number: EME-14/150/85) and registered ISRCTN12600919 and EudraCT: 2017-001785-14.

COngenital heart disease and the Diagnostic yield with Exome sequencing (CODE) study: prospective cohort study and systematic review

OBJECTIVE

To determine the incremental yield of antenatal exome sequencing (ES) over chromosomal microarray analysis (CMA) or conventional karyotyping in prenatally diagnosed congenital heart disease (CHD).

METHODS

A prospective cohort study of 197 trios undergoing ES following CMA or karyotyping owing to CHD identified prenatally and a systematic review of the literature were performed. MEDLINE, EMBASE, CINAHL and ClinicalTrials.gov (January 2000 to October 2019) databases were searched electronically for studies reporting on the diagnostic yield of ES in prenatally diagnosed CHD. Selected studies included those with more than three cases, with initiation of testing based upon prenatal phenotype only and that included cases in which CMA or karyotyping was negative. The incremental diagnostic yield of ES was assessed in: (1) all cases of CHD; (2) isolated CHD; (3) CHD associated with extracardiac anomaly (ECA); and (4) CHD according to phenotypic subgroup.

RESULTS

In our cohort, ES had an additional diagnostic yield in all CHD, isolated CHD and CHD associated with ECA of 12.7% (25/197), 11.5% (14/122) and 14.7% (11/75), respectively (P = 0.81). The corresponding pooled incremental yields from 18 studies (encompassing 636 CHD cases) included in the systematic review were 21% (95% CI, 15-27%), 11% (95% CI, 7-15%) and 37% (95% CI, 18-56%), respectively. The results did not differ significantly when subanalysis was limited to studies including more than 20 cases, except for CHD associated with ECA, in which the incremental yield was greater (49% (95% CI, 17-80%)). In cases of CHD associated with ECA in the primary analysis, the most common extracardiac anomalies associated with a pathogenic variant were those affecting the genitourinary system (23/52 (44.2%)). The greatest incremental yield was in cardiac shunt lesions (41% (95% CI, 19-63%)), followed by right-sided lesions (26% (95% CI, 9-43%)). In the majority (68/96 (70.8%)) of instances, pathogenic variants occurred de novo and in autosomal dominant (monoallelic) disease genes. The most common (19/96 (19.8%)) monogenic syndrome identified was Kabuki syndrome.

CONCLUSIONS

There is an apparent incremental yield of prenatal ES in CHD. While the greatest yield is in CHD associated with ECA, consideration could also be given to performing ES in the presence of an isolated cardiac abnormality. A policy of routine application of ES would require the adoption of robust bioinformatic, clinical and ethical pathways. Copyright © 2020 ISUOG. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Autophagy in T cells from aged donors is maintained by spermidine and correlates with function and vaccine responses

Vaccines are powerful tools to develop immune memory to infectious diseases and prevent excess mortality. In older adults, however vaccines are generally less efficacious and the molecular mechanisms that underpin this remain largely unknown. Autophagy, a process known to prevent aging, is critical for the maintenance of immune memory in mice. Here, we show that autophagy is specifically induced in vaccine-induced antigen-specific CD8+ T cells in healthy human volunteers. In addition, reduced IFNγ secretion by RSV-induced T cells in older vaccinees correlates with low autophagy levels. We demonstrate that levels of the endogenous autophagy-inducing metabolite spermidine fall in human T cells with age. Spermidine supplementation in T cells from old donors recovers their autophagy level and function, similar to young donors' cells, in which spermidine biosynthesis has been inhibited. Finally, our data show that endogenous spermidine maintains autophagy via the translation factor eIF5A and transcription factor TFEB. In summary, we have provided evidence for the importance of autophagy in vaccine immunogenicity in older humans and uncovered two novel drug targets that may increase vaccination efficiency in the aging context.

Influence of combined vitamin D3 supplementation and resistance exercise training on musculoskeletal health in older men and women (EXVITD): protocol for a randomised controlled trial

INTRODUCTION

Sarcopenia is a progressive loss in muscle mass, strength and function, the adverse consequences of which are severe, affecting quality of life and placing an increasing burden on social and healthcare systems. Vitamin D status is known to be associated with markers of sarcopenia, namely muscle mass, strength and function. Also, resistance exercise training (RET) is currently the only proven intervention to treat sarcopenia. However, very little data exist on the influence of combining the two interventions of vitamin D supplementation and resistance exercise training, although a recent systematic review provides tentative support for the current study's hypothesis that the combined intervention may further improve musculoskeletal function above exercise training alone. The aim of the present study is to determine whether vitamin D3 supplementation is any more effective in improving musculoskeletal function when combined with RET compared with exercise training alone in older adults.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

This double-blinded randomised placebo-controlled trial will recruit a target of 127 eligible men and women aged ≥65 years living independently or in sheltered housing within the Birmingham area to two groups: (1) 6 months RET and placebo or (2) 6 months RET and 800 IU/d vitamin D3. Measures of muscle power (Nottingham Power Rig), body composition (dual energy X-ray absorptiometry), muscle function (short physical performance battery, timed up and go), falls and fractures as events will be assessed. Assessments will take place at baseline and postintervention, with intermittent monitoring of bone turnover, calcium and vitamin D. The primary outcome will be lower limb extensor power output. Analyses of within-group changes and between-group differences in outcome measures are planned.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

The EXVITD study has ethical approval granted by the Black Country National Health Service Research Ethics Committee (14/WM/1220). Results of this trial will be submitted for publication in peer-reviewed journals and presented at conferences. The study is being conducted according to the principles of the Declaration of Helsinki.Trial registration numberNCT02467153; Post-results.

Student selection to a rural veterinary school. 2: predictors of student performance and attrition

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the extent to which current selection processes at Charles Sturt University, New South Wales, Australia, predict performance within and attrition from the veterinary degree program.

DESIGN

Retrospective evaluation of application details and student performance data.

METHODS

Database records of 424 students entering the veterinary program were retrieved from university records, including all students graduating (n = 356) or leaving the program without completing (n = 68) between 2005 and 2016. Demographic data were related to results of selection processes and achievement within the degree using univariable and multivariable general linear and logistic regression analyses.

RESULTS

The grade point average achieved over the 6 years of the degree was influenced by academic achievement prior to entry, gender (females performed ≈ 2% better than males) and interview scores. Preceptor evaluation of final-year clinical performance was associated with interview scores, gender (males performed ≈ 4% better than females) and residential address at the time of application. Attrition for personal reasons was more common for female students and students who had completed a prior degree, and students who experienced academic or personal attrition had lower written application scores. Factors that have been previously linked to poor academic outcomes, including rural or low socioeconomic background, were not associated with adverse student outcomes.

CONCLUSION

Selection processes did not systematically disadvantage students admitted to the degree program. Gender differences in personal attrition and academic and clinical performance warrant further evaluation. Factors in addition to academic aptitude predicted student success.

Frailty Levels In Geriatric Hospital paTients (FLIGHT)-the prevalence of frailty among geriatric populations within hospital ward settings: a systematic review protocol

INTRODUCTION

Frailty is a common and clinically significant condition in geriatric populations, associated with adverse health outcomes such as hospitalisation, disability and mortality. Although there are systematic reviews/meta-analyses assessing the prevalence of frailty in community-dwelling older adults, nursing home residents, and cancer and general surgery patients, there are none assessing the overall prevalence of frailty in geriatric hospital inpatients.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

This review will systematically search and analyse the prevalence of frailty within geriatric hospital inpatients within the literature. A search will be employed on the platforms of Ovid, Web of Science and databases of Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature (CINAHL) Plus, SCOPUS and the Cochrane Library. Any observational or experimental study design which utilises a validated operational definition of frailty, reports the prevalence of frailty, has a minimum age ≥65 years, attempts to assess the whole ward/clinical population and occurs in hospital inpatients, will be included. Title and abstract and full-text screenings will be conducted by three reviewers. Methodological quality of eligible studies will be assessed using the Joanna Briggs Institute critical appraisal tool. Data extraction will be performed by two reviewers. If sufficient data are available, a meta-analysis synthesising pooled estimates of the prevalence of frailty and pre-frailty, as well as the prevalence of frailty stratified by age, sex, operational frailty definition, prevalent morbidities, ward type and location, among older hospitalised inpatients will be conducted. Clinical heterogeneity will be assessed by two reviewers. Statistical heterogeneity will be assessed through a Cochran Q test, and an I 2 test performed to assess its magnitude.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

Ethical approval was not required as primary data will not be collected. Findings will be disseminated through publication in peer reviewed open access scientific journals, public engagement events, conference presentations and social media.

PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER

79202.

Dehydroepiandrosterone: a potential therapeutic agent in the treatment and rehabilitation of the traumatically injured patient

Severe injuries are the major cause of death in those aged under 40, mainly due to road traffic collisions. Endocrine, metabolic and immune pathways respond to limit the tissue damage sustained and initiate wound healing, repair and regeneration mechanisms. However, depending on age and sex, the response to injury and patient prognosis differ significantly. Glucocorticoids are catabolic and immunosuppressive and are produced as part of the stress response to injury leading to an intra-adrenal shift in steroid biosynthesis at the expense of the anabolic and immune enhancing steroid hormone dehydroepiandrosterone (DHEA) and its sulphated metabolite dehydroepiandrosterone sulphate (DHEAS). The balance of these steroids after injury appears to influence outcomes in injured humans, with high cortisol: DHEAS ratio associated with increased morbidity and mortality. Animal models of trauma, sepsis, wound healing, neuroprotection and burns have all shown a reduction in pro-inflammatory cytokines, improved survival and increased resistance to pathological challenges with DHEA supplementation. Human supplementation studies, which have focused on post-menopausal females, older adults, or adrenal insufficiency have shown that restoring the cortisol: DHEAS ratio improves wound healing, mood, bone remodelling and psychological well-being. Currently, there are no DHEA or DHEAS supplementation studies in trauma patients, but we review here the evidence for this potential therapeutic agent in the treatment and rehabilitation of the severely injured patient.

Student selection to a rural veterinary school. 1: applicant demographics and predictors of success within the application process

OBJECTIVE

To determine demographic details of applicants to the veterinary degree program at and relate this information to student selection processes.

DESIGN

Retrospective evaluation of applicant data.

METHODS

Database records of 4042 applicants to the veterinary program (2006-2016) were retrieved from university records. Summary statistics were used to determine basic demographic data, which were related to pre-entry academic achievement and results of selection processes using univariable and multivariable analyses.

RESULTS

The number of applications, interviews and acceptance of offers fluctuated but did not vary substantively for the duration of the study. Gender, rurality (as assessed by residential and school postcodes), socioeconomic background, academic background and pre-entry academic achievement all significantly influenced written application and interview scores in the multivariate models. Rural background, written application score, number of applications, pre-entry academic history and achievement significantly affected the chances of receiving an interview. Chances of receiving an offer and subsequent program entry were significantly influenced by academic background, interview score and pre-entry academic achievement. Male applicants were more likely to receive an offer, but gender had no effect on program entry. Rural residential and school background was associated with significantly reduced ATAR in comparison with city-based applicants.

CONCLUSION

Selection processes effectively identified applicants with demographic backgrounds and life experiences consistent with the School's commitment to the veterinary needs of rural and regional Australia. Findings support the provision of an academic loading for the ATAR results of rural students. Effects of these selection outcomes on student performance should be evaluated.

Relationships between markers of inflammation and bone density: findings from the Hertfordshire Cohort Study

Among 365 Hertfordshire Cohort Study participants (aged 59-71 years at baseline), higher adiponectin and adiponectin to leptin ratios were associated with lower baseline lumbar spine and femoral neck bone mineral density (BMD). Lower IL-10 was associated with accelerated decline in lumbar spine BMD. This suggests that bone health can be influenced by changes in immune phenotype and alterations in adipokine homeostasis.

INTRODUCTION

The aim of this study was to examine the association between indices of inflammation and BMD in a population-based cohort of older adults in the UK.

METHODS

Analyses were based on a sample of 194 men and 171 women of the Hertfordshire Cohort Study (community-living, older adults). Dual energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) was performed at the lumbar spine and proximal femur at baseline and repeated at a median of 4.5 years (inter-quartile range 3.6 to 5.2). Inflammatory markers (CRP, TNF, IL-1β, IL-6, IL-8, IL-10, adiponectin and leptin) were ascertained at baseline using enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) techniques and Bio-Plex Pro Assays. Gender-adjusted linear regression was used to examine the associations between markers of inflammation and outcomes with and without adjustment for anthropometric and lifestyle factors.

RESULTS

The mean (SD) ages at baseline were 64.4 (2.5) and 66.5 (2.7) years for men and women respectively. Higher levels of adiponectin and adiponectin to leptin ratios were each associated with lower baseline lumbar spine and femoral neck BMD in gender-adjusted (p < 0.01) and fully adjusted (p < 0.05) analyses. Lower levels of IL-10 and TNF were each associated with accelerated decline in lumbar spine BMD in both gender-adjusted (p ≤ 0.05) and fully adjusted (p < 0.05) analyses.

CONCLUSIONS

In a cohort of older adults, high levels of adiponectin and adiponectin to leptin ratios were both associated with lower BMD at the lumbar spine and femoral neck at baseline, and lower IL-10 was associated with accelerated decline in BMD at the lumbar spine. This adds weight to the theory that bone health can be influenced by changes in immune phenotype and alterations in adipokine homeostasis.

Development of a screening tool to predict the risk of chronic pain and disability following musculoskeletal trauma: protocol for a prospective observational study in the United Kingdom

INTRODUCTION

Pain is an expected and appropriate experience following traumatic musculoskeletal injury. By contrast, chronic pain and disability are unhelpful yet common sequelae of trauma-related injuries. Presently, the mechanisms that underlie the transition from acute to chronic disabling post-traumatic pain are not fully understood. Such knowledge would facilitate the development and implementation of precision rehabilitation approaches that match interventions to projected risk of recovery, with the aim of preventing poor long-term outcomes. The aim of this study is to identify a set of predictive factors to identify patients at risk of developing ongoing post-traumatic pain and disability following acute musculoskeletal trauma. To achieve this, we will use a unique and comprehensive combination of patient-reported outcome measures, psychophysical testing and biomarkers.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

A prospective observational study will recruit two temporally staggered cohorts (n=250 each cohort; at least 10 cases per candidate predictor) of consecutive patients with acute musculoskeletal trauma aged ≥16 years, who are emergency admissions into a Major Trauma Centre in the United Kingdom, with an episode inception defined as the traumatic event. The first cohort will identify candidate predictors to develop a screening tool to predict development of chronic and disabling pain, and the second will allow evaluation of the predictive performance of the tool (validation). The outcome being predicted is an individual's absolute risk of poor outcome measured at a 6-month follow-up using the Chronic Pain Grade Scale (poor outcome ≥grade II). Candidate predictors encompass the four primary mechanisms of pain: nociceptive (eg, injury location), neuropathic (eg, painDETECT), inflammatory (biomarkers) and nociplastic (eg, quantitative sensory testing). Concurrently, patient-reported outcome measures will assess general health and psychosocial factors (eg, pain self-efficacy). Risk of poor outcome will be calculated using multiple variable regression analysis.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

Approved by the NHS Research Ethics Committee (17/WA/0421).

Economic modelling of diagnostic and treatment pathways in National Institute for Health and Care Excellence clinical guidelines: the Modelling Algorithm Pathways in Guidelines (MAPGuide) project

BACKGROUND

National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) clinical guidelines (CGs) make recommendations across large, complex care pathways for broad groups of patients. They rely on cost-effectiveness evidence from the literature and from new analyses for selected high-priority topics. An alternative approach would be to build a model of the full care pathway and to use this as a platform to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of multiple topics across the guideline recommendations.

OBJECTIVES

In this project we aimed to test the feasibility of building full guideline models for NICE guidelines and to assess if, and how, such models can be used as a basis for cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA).

DATA SOURCES

A 'best evidence' approach was used to inform the model parameters. Data were drawn from the guideline documentation, advice from clinical experts and rapid literature reviews on selected topics. Where possible we relied on good-quality, recent UK systematic reviews and meta-analyses.

REVIEW METHODS

Two published NICE guidelines were used as case studies: prostate cancer and atrial fibrillation (AF). Discrete event simulation (DES) was used to model the recommended care pathways and to estimate consequent costs and outcomes. For each guideline, researchers not involved in model development collated a shortlist of topics suggested for updating. The modelling teams then attempted to evaluate options related to these topics. Cost-effectiveness results were compared with opinions about the importance of the topics elicited in a survey of stakeholders.

RESULTS

The modelling teams developed simulations of the guideline pathways and disease processes. Development took longer and required more analytical time than anticipated. Estimates of cost-effectiveness were produced for six of the nine prostate cancer topics considered, and for five of eight AF topics. The other topics were not evaluated owing to lack of data or time constraints. The modelled results suggested 'economic priorities' for an update that differed from priorities expressed in the stakeholder survey.

LIMITATIONS

We did not conduct systematic reviews to inform the model parameters, and so the results might not reflect all current evidence. Data limitations and time constraints restricted the number of analyses that we could conduct. We were also unable to obtain feedback from guideline stakeholders about the usefulness of the models within project time scales.

CONCLUSIONS

Discrete event simulation can be used to model full guideline pathways for CEA, although this requires a substantial investment of clinical and analytic time and expertise. For some topics lack of data may limit the potential for modelling. There are also uncertainties over the accessibility and adaptability of full guideline models. However, full guideline modelling offers the potential to strengthen and extend the analytical basis of NICE's CGs. Further work is needed to extend the analysis of our case study models to estimate population-level budget and health impacts. The practical usefulness of our models to guideline developers and users should also be investigated, as should the feasibility and usefulness of whole guideline modelling alongside development of a new CG.

FUNDING

This project was funded by the Medical Research Council and the National Institute for Health Research through the Methodology Research Programme [grant number G0901504] and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 17, No. 58. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

Protocol for an HTA report: Does therapeutic writing help people with long-term conditions? Systematic review, realist synthesis and economic modelling

INTRODUCTION

Long-term medical conditions (LTCs) cause reduced health-related quality of life and considerable health service expenditure. Writing therapy has potential to improve physical and mental health in people with LTCs, but its effectiveness is not established. This project aims to establish the clinical and cost-effectiveness of therapeutic writing in LTCs by systematic review and economic evaluation, and to evaluate context and mechanisms by which it might work, through realist synthesis.

METHODS

Included are any comparative study of therapeutic writing compared with no writing, waiting list, attention control or placebo writing in patients with any diagnosed LTCs that report at least one of the following: relevant clinical outcomes; quality of life; health service use; psychological, behavioural or social functioning; adherence or adverse events. Searches will be conducted in the main medical databases including MEDLINE, EMBASE, PsycINFO, The Cochrane Library and Science Citation Index. For the realist review, further purposive and iterative searches through snowballing techniques will be undertaken. Inclusions, data extraction and quality assessment will be in duplicate with disagreements resolved through discussion. Quality assessment will include using Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation (GRADE) criteria. Data synthesis will be narrative and tabular with meta-analysis where appropriate. De novo economic modelling will be attempted in one clinical area if sufficient evidence is available and performed according to the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) reference case.

Analysis of failed Van Straten LPM proximal interphalangeal prostheses

The two-piece Van Straten Leuwen Poeschmann Metal (LPM) prosthesis was intended for the proximal interphalangeal joints. However, revision rates of 29% after 19 months were reported, as well as massive osteolysis. Five failed LPM titanium-niobium coated cobalt chromium components were obtained, three distal and two proximal, and subjected to a forensic retrieval analysis. Components were analyzed using a Talysurf contacting profilometer, ZYGO noncontacting profilometer, and environmental-scanning electron microscope. All components were heavily worn. In some regions the titanium-niobium coating had been scratched and penetrated. Elsewhere this coating had been removed where there was minimal scratching, which may have been due to corrosion between the coating and substrate. The osteolysis reported clinically was likely to be linked to the wear debris from the failed titanium-niobium coating and substrate.

Disability and global development

The United States invests billions of taxpayer dollars each year into foreign assistance programs that foster international diplomacy and development directed toward improving the quality of life for people around the world. These programs develop economies and combat poverty, promote democracy and governance, build new infrastructure, advance and protect human rights, among other development goals. The United States cannot effectively accomplish the goals of foreign assistance programs unless it undertakes measures to ensure that the programs are accessible to and inclusive of people with disabilities. The United States has been a leader in advancing the rights of people with disabilities and must continue to promote disability rights through its international development work. Overseas economic development will not be successful unless people with disabilities are included. Because of the significant number of people with disabilities in developing countries, if they are not included, the very economic growth the United States is trying to foster will be hindered. The goals of democracy and governance programs cannot be achieved without the inclusion of people with disabilities. In many countries, domestic law contains blatant discriminatory provisions for people with disabilities that undermine access to justice and full participation in society. The provisions that discriminate against people with disabilities include arbitrary exclusions in electoral codes, sweeping plenary guardianship laws with no due-process protections, discriminatory banking practices, and inaccessible court proceedings. National disability legal frameworks remain underdeveloped throughout the world.

Accelerating failure rate of the ASR total hip replacement

There is widespread concern regarding the incidence of adverse soft-tissue reactions after metal-on-metal (MoM) hip replacement. Recent National Joint Registry data have shown clear differences in the rates of failure of different designs of hip resurfacing. Our aim was to update the failure rates related to metal debris for the Articular Surface Replacement (ASR). A total of 505 of these were implanted. Kaplan-Meier analysis showed a failure rate of 25% at six years for the ASR resurfacing and of 48.8% for the ASR total hip replacement (THR). Of 257 patients with a minimum follow-up of two years, 67 (26.1%) had a serum cobalt concentration which was greater than 7 μg/l. Co-ordinate measuring machine analysis of revised components showed that all patients suffering adverse tissue reactions in the resurfacing group had abnormal wear of the bearing surfaces. Six THR patients had relatively low rates of articular wear, but were found to have considerable damage at the trunion-taper interface. Our results suggest that wear at the modular junction is an important factor in the development of adverse tissue reactions after implantation of a large-diameter MoM THR.

Adverse reaction to metal debris following hip resurfacing: the influence of component type, orientation and volumetric wear

We sought to establish the incidence of joint failure secondary to adverse reaction to metal debris (ARMD) following metal-on-metal hip resurfacing in a large, three surgeon, multicentre study involving 4226 hips with a follow-up of 10 to 142 months. Three implants were studied: the Articular Surface Replacement; the Birmingham Hip Resurfacing; and the Conserve Plus. Retrieved implants underwent analysis using a co-ordinate measuring machine to determine volumetric wear. There were 58 failures associated with ARMD. The median chromium and cobalt concentrations in the failed group were significantly higher than in the control group (p < 0.001). Survival analysis showed a failure rate in the patients with Articular Surface Replacement of 12.8% [corrected] at five years, compared with < 1% at five years for the Conserve Plus and 1.5% at ten years for the Birmingham Hip Resurfacing. Two ARMD patients had relatively low wear of the retrieved components. Increased wear from the metal-on-metal bearing surface was associated with an increased rate of failure secondary to ARMD. However, the extent of tissue destruction at revision surgery did not appear to be dose-related to the volumetric wear.